（原创翻译）美国记者：中国人会控制月球吗？

原文链接：http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/10/19/8402070-will-china-take-over-the-moon

本文作者艾伦·波义耳(Alan Boyle)是msnbc著名科学编辑，他学识渊博、见解独特，发表的科技类评论文章经常可以给读者带来启发。以下是他针对中国探月计划的一篇文章。

Will China stake a claim on the moon?

中国会坚持对月球的权利吗？

By Alan Boyle

Is China on course to surpass the United States as the world's space superpower and stake a claim on the moon in the next 15 years? Billionaire space executive Robert Bigelow is deeply worried about that scenario — and he says Americans need a "kick in the ass" to respond to the challenge.

中国是否正在超越美国成为世界上的太空超级大国，并在未来15年内坚持对月球的权利？太空计划执行人、亿万富翁罗伯特·比奇洛（酒店大亨，正在开发太空酒店）对这种情况深感忧虑 -- 他还说，美国人需要“照屁股来一脚”，才能应对这种挑战。

Bigelow delivered that kick today at the International Symposium for Personal and Commercial Spaceflight in Las Cruces, N.M. — but the general consensus among experts on China policy is that it's a bit too early to start rattling the sabers.

今天，比奇洛在新墨西哥州拉斯克鲁塞斯的个人及商业航天国际研讨会上，踢出了这一脚 -- 但是，中国政策专家之间的普遍共识是，现在开始剑拔弩张还为时过早。

The founder of the Budget Suites hotel chain and Bigelow Aerospace promised to "cause a stimulation" with his remarks at the ISPCS conference, and delivered on that promise by laying out an argument for China's growing space dominance. He said the trend could conceivably lead to a lunar takeover in the 2022-2026 time frame.

这位经济型套房连锁酒店及比奇洛宇航公司的创始人在研讨会发言中承诺，将“造成激励”，并通过引发对中国不断增长的空间主导地位的争论，履行了这一承诺。他说，可以确信，这种趋势将在2022至2026年的时间框架中，导致对月球的控制。

Bigelow characterized China as "the new gunslinger in Dodge" when it came to space exploration.

比奇洛把中国定性为开始参与太空探索的“开着道奇的新枪手”。

The way he sees it, China is progressing along a slow, steady path toward space proficiency. The steps in that path include follow-ups to the Shenzhou 8 spacewalk mission in 2008, the unmanned Chang'e lunar missions and last month's Tiangong 1 space lab launch. In the coming years, China will have plenty of cash for great leaps forward in space, while the United States will be hamstrung by higher debt and tighter budgets.

在他看来，中国正在沿着缓慢而稳定的道路发展，以获得走向太空的能力。这条道路上的步骤包括：2008年“神舟8号”（应为神舟7号）太空行走的后续计划，“嫦娥”无人探月计划和上个月的“天宫1号”空间实验室的发射。在未来几年里，中国将有充足的资金来用于空间技术的飞跃，与此同时，美国将因为更高的债务和紧缩的预算而受挫。

Why the moon?

为何是月球？

Why would China want to lay claim to the moon? Bigelow referred to some of the long-discussed potential benefits, including the moon's abundance of helium-3, which could someday be used as fuel for nuclear fusion (although that idea has been oversold in the past). The moon's raw material could also be turned into the water, oxygen, building materials and rocket fuel needed for human exploration. But Bigelow said the biggest payoff would come in the form of international prestige, just as it did for the United States after the moon landings.

中国为何要对月球提出主张？比奇洛谈到了一些讨论已久的潜在优势，包括月球上丰富的氦3资源，这种资源可能有一天会成为核聚变燃料（尽管这种想法已经被过分炒作）。月球上的原始物质也能够被转化成水、氧气、建材和人类太空探索需要的火箭燃料。但是比奇洛说，最大的收益可能来自于国际威信的形式，就像美国在登月后的结果一样。

"This would endure for a very long time," he said. "It’s priceless. ... Nothing else that China could possibly do in the next 15 years could produce as great a benefit."

“这将持续很长一段时间，”他说，“这是无价的。···未来15年内，中国可能做到的其他任何事，都不会产生如此大的好处。”

Bigelow speculated that China could conduct detailed surface-based surveys of the lunar surface in the mid-2020s, setting the stage for the country to withdraw from the Outer Space Treaty of 1967 and formally claim possession of the moon. China could then conceivably insist on being paid for lunar concessions, Bigelow said.

比奇洛推测，中国可能会在2020年代中期，在月球表面进行详细的月面调查，为该国退出1967年的《外层空间条约》并正式宣称拥有月球创造条件。比奇洛说，可以想象，中国随后就可以坚持为月球上的特权收费。

He said the Chinese challenge could serve as a "fear factor" to energize the efforts of NASA and its space partners. "It's the best kick in the ass that you can have," he told reporters after his talk. He also doubted that the Chinese would be content with taking on the status of a partner in the U.S.-led space "family," even if they were invited to join. "They want to have their own family," he said.

他说，中国的挑战将作为“恐惧因素”，帮助美国宇航局和它的空间合作伙伴努力重振声威。“这是你能得到的最好的激励。”他在讲话后告诉记者。他还怀疑，中国是否会满足于获得美国领导的太空“家庭”中的合作伙伴地位，即使他们被邀请加入。“他们希望有自己的家庭。”他说。

Bigelow proposed diverting 10 percent of the U.S. defense budget to the space effort, which he said would provide an annual boost of $60 billion. It may turn out to be "too late" for a space race to the moon, he said; Bigelow suggested that a U.S.-led consortium should target Mars instead.

比奇洛建议，把美国国防预算的10％转移到空间活动中，他说，这将带来每年60亿美元的增长。他认为，现在把太空竞赛对准月球可能“为时已晚”，因此他建议，一个以美国为首的国际集团应该瞄准火星。

What do the experts say?

专家怎么说？

Bigelow said his analysis was based on two years of observing the space policy landscape, rather than personal discussions with the Chinese. Generally speaking, experts on Chinese space policy say that it's too early to judge the nation's long-term intentions.

比奇洛说，他的分析是基于对两年之内太空政策环境的观察，而不是他与中国人的私下讨论。一般来说，中国太空政策专家认为，现在判断该国的长期意图还早了点。

"I think it is a little bit of a stretch to think about whether the Chinese will be laying claim to the moon," Dean Cheng, a research fellow at the conservative-leaning Heritage Foundation, told me today. "I would be very surprised if they had any plans one way or the other."

“我认为，要判断中国人是否会对月球提出权利要求，目前还很难说。”倾向保守派的传统基金会研究员成斌今天告诉我。“如果他们千方百计地制定出这种计划，我会感到惊讶。”

Cheng said the Chinese were clearly interested in lunar exploration. "They will have all the pieces in place in the 2021-2025 time period to think about putting a man on the moon," he said. But he doubted that China would try to do anything inflammatory — for example, rolling up the American flag at Tranquility Base and putting a Chinese flag in its place. "Incendiary stuff, not likely," Cheng said.

成斌说，中国人很显然对月球探测感兴趣。“为了能把人送上月球，他们将在2021年至2025年的时间段，把所有的工作都做到位。”他说。但是他怀疑，中国是否会尝试去做一些刺激性的事 -- 例如，在宁静海基地（阿姆斯特朗第一次登陆月球地点），收起美国国旗，然后在同样的位置插上中国国旗。“煽动性的念头，不太可能。”成斌说。

It's more likely that China would want to see an international body such as the United Nations in charge of lunar exploration and exploitation, Cheng said. He pointed to the example of the Law of the Sea Convention, which governs the use of marine resources but has not yet been ratified by the U.S. Senate.

成斌说，更大的可能是，中国希望看到一个国际机构，如联合国，负责月球勘探和开采。他指出，目前已有《海洋法公约》的例子，该公约管辖海洋资源的使用，但尚未得到美国参议院批准。

Cheng said the Chinese would prefer to see lunar resources controlled by an intergovernmental body rather than private-sector entities. He said they'd definitely oppose an arrangement in which non-governmental entities are in charge, such as the system set up by ICANN, the Internet's governing body.

ICANN - Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers

成斌说，中国人更愿意看到政府间机构控制月球资源，而不是私营部门实体。他说，他们肯定会反对安排非政府实体负责的做法，例如互联网管理机构“赋值名称与数字互联网公司（ICANN）”设立的系统。

"The prospect of the Chinese having to deal with the space equivalent of ICANN is their worst nightmare," he told me.

“如果中国人不得不与相当于ICANN这样的空间机构打交道，这种前景是最糟糕的噩梦。”他告诉我。原文链接：http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/10/19/8402070-will-china-take-over-the-moon

本文作者艾伦·波义耳(Alan Boyle)是msnbc著名科学编辑，他学识渊博、见解独特，发表的科技类评论文章经常可以给读者带来启发。以下是他针对中国探月计划的一篇文章。

Will China stake a claim on the moon?

中国会坚持对月球的权利吗？

By Alan Boyle

Is China on course to surpass the United States as the world's space superpower and stake a claim on the moon in the next 15 years? Billionaire space executive Robert Bigelow is deeply worried about that scenario — and he says Americans need a "kick in the ass" to respond to the challenge.

中国是否正在超越美国成为世界上的太空超级大国，并在未来15年内坚持对月球的权利？太空计划执行人、亿万富翁罗伯特·比奇洛（酒店大亨，正在开发太空酒店）对这种情况深感忧虑 -- 他还说，美国人需要“照屁股来一脚”，才能应对这种挑战。

Bigelow delivered that kick today at the International Symposium for Personal and Commercial Spaceflight in Las Cruces, N.M. — but the general consensus among experts on China policy is that it's a bit too early to start rattling the sabers.

今天，比奇洛在新墨西哥州拉斯克鲁塞斯的个人及商业航天国际研讨会上，踢出了这一脚 -- 但是，中国政策专家之间的普遍共识是，现在开始剑拔弩张还为时过早。

The founder of the Budget Suites hotel chain and Bigelow Aerospace promised to "cause a stimulation" with his remarks at the ISPCS conference, and delivered on that promise by laying out an argument for China's growing space dominance. He said the trend could conceivably lead to a lunar takeover in the 2022-2026 time frame.

这位经济型套房连锁酒店及比奇洛宇航公司的创始人在研讨会发言中承诺，将“造成激励”，并通过引发对中国不断增长的空间主导地位的争论，履行了这一承诺。他说，可以确信，这种趋势将在2022至2026年的时间框架中，导致对月球的控制。

Bigelow characterized China as "the new gunslinger in Dodge" when it came to space exploration.

比奇洛把中国定性为开始参与太空探索的“开着道奇的新枪手”。

The way he sees it, China is progressing along a slow, steady path toward space proficiency. The steps in that path include follow-ups to the Shenzhou 8 spacewalk mission in 2008, the unmanned Chang'e lunar missions and last month's Tiangong 1 space lab launch. In the coming years, China will have plenty of cash for great leaps forward in space, while the United States will be hamstrung by higher debt and tighter budgets.

在他看来，中国正在沿着缓慢而稳定的道路发展，以获得走向太空的能力。这条道路上的步骤包括：2008年“神舟8号”（应为神舟7号）太空行走的后续计划，“嫦娥”无人探月计划和上个月的“天宫1号”空间实验室的发射。在未来几年里，中国将有充足的资金来用于空间技术的飞跃，与此同时，美国将因为更高的债务和紧缩的预算而受挫。

Why the moon?

为何是月球？

Why would China want to lay claim to the moon? Bigelow referred to some of the long-discussed potential benefits, including the moon's abundance of helium-3, which could someday be used as fuel for nuclear fusion (although that idea has been oversold in the past). The moon's raw material could also be turned into the water, oxygen, building materials and rocket fuel needed for human exploration. But Bigelow said the biggest payoff would come in the form of international prestige, just as it did for the United States after the moon landings.

中国为何要对月球提出主张？比奇洛谈到了一些讨论已久的潜在优势，包括月球上丰富的氦3资源，这种资源可能有一天会成为核聚变燃料（尽管这种想法已经被过分炒作）。月球上的原始物质也能够被转化成水、氧气、建材和人类太空探索需要的火箭燃料。但是比奇洛说，最大的收益可能来自于国际威信的形式，就像美国在登月后的结果一样。

"This would endure for a very long time," he said. "It’s priceless. ... Nothing else that China could possibly do in the next 15 years could produce as great a benefit."

“这将持续很长一段时间，”他说，“这是无价的。···未来15年内，中国可能做到的其他任何事，都不会产生如此大的好处。”

Bigelow speculated that China could conduct detailed surface-based surveys of the lunar surface in the mid-2020s, setting the stage for the country to withdraw from the Outer Space Treaty of 1967 and formally claim possession of the moon. China could then conceivably insist on being paid for lunar concessions, Bigelow said.

比奇洛推测，中国可能会在2020年代中期，在月球表面进行详细的月面调查，为该国退出1967年的《外层空间条约》并正式宣称拥有月球创造条件。比奇洛说，可以想象，中国随后就可以坚持为月球上的特权收费。

He said the Chinese challenge could serve as a "fear factor" to energize the efforts of NASA and its space partners. "It's the best kick in the ass that you can have," he told reporters after his talk. He also doubted that the Chinese would be content with taking on the status of a partner in the U.S.-led space "family," even if they were invited to join. "They want to have their own family," he said.

他说，中国的挑战将作为“恐惧因素”，帮助美国宇航局和它的空间合作伙伴努力重振声威。“这是你能得到的最好的激励。”他在讲话后告诉记者。他还怀疑，中国是否会满足于获得美国领导的太空“家庭”中的合作伙伴地位，即使他们被邀请加入。“他们希望有自己的家庭。”他说。

Bigelow proposed diverting 10 percent of the U.S. defense budget to the space effort, which he said would provide an annual boost of $60 billion. It may turn out to be "too late" for a space race to the moon, he said; Bigelow suggested that a U.S.-led consortium should target Mars instead.

比奇洛建议，把美国国防预算的10％转移到空间活动中，他说，这将带来每年60亿美元的增长。他认为，现在把太空竞赛对准月球可能“为时已晚”，因此他建议，一个以美国为首的国际集团应该瞄准火星。

What do the experts say?

专家怎么说？

Bigelow said his analysis was based on two years of observing the space policy landscape, rather than personal discussions with the Chinese. Generally speaking, experts on Chinese space policy say that it's too early to judge the nation's long-term intentions.

比奇洛说，他的分析是基于对两年之内太空政策环境的观察，而不是他与中国人的私下讨论。一般来说，中国太空政策专家认为，现在判断该国的长期意图还早了点。

"I think it is a little bit of a stretch to think about whether the Chinese will be laying claim to the moon," Dean Cheng, a research fellow at the conservative-leaning Heritage Foundation, told me today. "I would be very surprised if they had any plans one way or the other."

“我认为，要判断中国人是否会对月球提出权利要求，目前还很难说。”倾向保守派的传统基金会研究员成斌今天告诉我。“如果他们千方百计地制定出这种计划，我会感到惊讶。”

Cheng said the Chinese were clearly interested in lunar exploration. "They will have all the pieces in place in the 2021-2025 time period to think about putting a man on the moon," he said. But he doubted that China would try to do anything inflammatory — for example, rolling up the American flag at Tranquility Base and putting a Chinese flag in its place. "Incendiary stuff, not likely," Cheng said.

成斌说，中国人很显然对月球探测感兴趣。“为了能把人送上月球，他们将在2021年至2025年的时间段，把所有的工作都做到位。”他说。但是他怀疑，中国是否会尝试去做一些刺激性的事 -- 例如，在宁静海基地（阿姆斯特朗第一次登陆月球地点），收起美国国旗，然后在同样的位置插上中国国旗。“煽动性的念头，不太可能。”成斌说。

It's more likely that China would want to see an international body such as the United Nations in charge of lunar exploration and exploitation, Cheng said. He pointed to the example of the Law of the Sea Convention, which governs the use of marine resources but has not yet been ratified by the U.S. Senate.

成斌说，更大的可能是，中国希望看到一个国际机构，如联合国，负责月球勘探和开采。他指出，目前已有《海洋法公约》的例子，该公约管辖海洋资源的使用，但尚未得到美国参议院批准。

Cheng said the Chinese would prefer to see lunar resources controlled by an intergovernmental body rather than private-sector entities. He said they'd definitely oppose an arrangement in which non-governmental entities are in charge, such as the system set up by ICANN, the Internet's governing body.

ICANN - Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers

成斌说，中国人更愿意看到政府间机构控制月球资源，而不是私营部门实体。他说，他们肯定会反对安排非政府实体负责的做法，例如互联网管理机构“赋值名称与数字互联网公司（ICANN）”设立的系统。

"The prospect of the Chinese having to deal with the space equivalent of ICANN is their worst nightmare," he told me.

“如果中国人不得不与相当于ICANN这样的空间机构打交道，这种前景是最糟糕的噩梦。”他告诉我。