（原创翻译）美国记者：利比亚会变成伊拉克吗？

Will a post-Gadhafi Libya look like Iraq?

后卡扎菲时代的利比亚是否会像伊拉克？

By Jim Maceda, NBC News Correspondent

LONDON – Black smoke billowed from parts of the capital. The crack of gunfire echoed off buildings. Rag-tag gunmen manned checkpoints on dozens of street corners, covered in bullet-belts and brandishing RPG launchers. A massive statue symbolizing the dictator’s rule had fallen just two days before. Some were still kicking at his likeness and tearing up his posters.

伦敦 -- 滚滚的黑烟从首都部分地区冒出。噼啪作响的枪声回荡在建筑物中。衣着杂乱的武装人员控制了数十个街角的检查站，他们身披子弹带，挥舞着RPG火箭筒。就在两天前，一座象征DC者统治的巨大雕像已经倒塌。一些人仍然在踢打着他的肖像，撕毁着他的宣传画。

But many others were keen to withdraw funds from the bank, reopen their shops and put their lives back together. Some were giddy with revolution. Others feared the looting they’d witnessed and warned of worse to come. The people were awash in weapons. The dictator, meanwhile, had disappeared.

但是还有许多人急于从银行提取资金，让店铺重新开张，一起使他们的生活恢复原状。有的人被革命搞得晕头转向。其他人担心他们曾亲眼目睹的抢劫，警告说今后会更糟。武器在人群中泛滥。与此同时，DC者已经消失。

This might sound like today’s Tripoli, but this was the scene in Baghdad as our NBC News convoy drove into the war-torn city on April 11, 2003.

这可能听起来像今天的的黎波里，但是，这种情景，发生在饱受战争蹂躏的巴格达。2003年4月11日，我们NBC新闻车队曾进入这座城市。

Bagdad? Tripoli?

巴格达？的黎波里？

I find myself flashing constantly back to those heady days as I watch the amazing images of the collapse of the Gadhafi regime. It was a collapse which, as with Saddam Hussein’s, outpaced my own expectations. I’m clearly not alone. Here in London, many British papers have been replete with editorials by “experts” recalling early “post-Saddam” Iraq, and drawing comparisons – and mostly differences – with post-Gadhafi Libya.

我发现，当我目睹卡扎菲政权崩溃的惊人一幕时，那些令人陶醉的日子不断地在我脑海中浮现。这种崩溃，就像与萨达姆·侯赛因的崩溃一样，远远超过了我本人的期望。我显然不是孤独的。现在的伦敦，许多英国报纸已经充斥着“专家们”发表的社论，回忆伊拉克先前的“后萨达姆时代”，并与后卡扎菲时代的利比亚 -- 主要是不同点 -- 进行比较。

Among them, former British Foreign Minister Malcolm Rifkind neatly laid out the biggest contrasts in an editorial in the Times of London.

其中，前英国外交大臣马尔科姆·里夫金德，在《伦敦时报》的社论中，轻车熟路地发表了最长的一篇对比文章。

First and foremost, Rifkind pointed out that the Libyan people – unlike the Iraqis – fought for and won their freedom. Iraqis, he wrote, had their freedom handed to them. Secondly, Iraqis had to suffer “the humiliation” of a U.S. occupation for years; but there are no “foreign boots” on the ground in Libya, though a small contingent of U.N. peacekeepers may be welcomed to help police Tripoli. Thirdly, the “seeds of civil war” were already planted in Iraq, with deepening bad blood between the Shiite majority, who were suddenly handed power, and Saddam’s Sunnis, who had lost their traditional hold on it.

首先，里夫金德指出，利比亚人民 -- 与伊拉克人民不同 -- 争取并赢得了他们的自由。他写道，伊拉克人由别人把自由交给他们。其次，伊拉克人不得不承受美国占领多年所带来的“耻辱”；然而，即使一支联合国维和部队的小分队可能有助于帮助的黎波里警方，但是并没有“外国军队”踏上利比亚的土地。第三，“内战的种子”已经播洒到伊拉克，因为突然获得权力的多数民族什叶派，与失去了传统权力的萨达姆的逊尼派之间，厌恶感正在日益加深。

These differences are real, and Libya is not Iraq for many other reasons. But the rebels, and the NATO coalition that helped them win, are clearly worried about the similarities, and about not repeating the mistakes made in the days and weeks after Saddam’s fall.

这些差异是真实的，因为诸多原因，利比亚不是伊拉克。但是利比亚反对派，还有帮助他们获胜的北约组织，已经对种种相似性表现出了担忧，他们不想重复在萨达姆倒台后的那些岁月里，曾经犯下的错误。

Lots of promises

种种承诺

The rebel leadership has promised to include all Libyans in the New Libya. It’s asked policemen to stay at their posts. It claims that Libya will generate enough income through its restored oil industry to pay for its own nation building. And it promises a new constitution, a national referendum, and both free and fair parliamentary and presidential elections.

反对派领导人已经承诺，新利比亚将包括所有的利比亚人。它要求警察坚守岗位。它声称，利比亚将通过恢复石油生产来获得足够的收入，用于支持本国的建设。它还承诺一部新宪法，一次全民公决，一次自由公正的议会及总统选举。

Encouraging? Of course; but let’s take a step back again in time.

是鼓励吗？当然；但是，让我们再次及时地后退一步。

The security vacuum left in Baghdad was filled by over-armed, disoriented U.S. soldiers, who did little more than watch, agog, as anything with value was looted.

留在巴格达的安全真空，被全副武装、四处游荡的美军士兵所填补。他们除了观望之外，没有做任何事，因为任何有价值的东西都被洗劫一空。

Who will fill a similar security vacuum in Tripoli if those Libyan police are too afraid of pro-Gadhafi snipers – or rockets – to actually police the streets? It would seem that unless Gadhafi and his sons are captured or killed, a pro-regime insurgency may well take root quickly. They could do as much damage in Tripoli as the black-clad Fedayeen Saddam, a paramilitary group loyal to the former Ba’athist government of Saddam Hussein, did in and around Baghdad.

如果这些利比亚警察因为害怕亲卡扎菲的狙击手 -- 或火箭筒手 -- 而不敢上街执勤，那么谁将填补的黎波里的类似安全真空呢？看起来，除非卡扎菲和他的儿子们被抓获或击毙，否则亲卡扎菲政权的叛乱行动会迅速扎根。在的黎波里，他们可能造成很大破坏，就像身穿黑衣的“萨达姆敢死队”那样。“萨达姆敢死队”是一个忠于前总统萨达姆复兴党政府的准军事集团，他们在巴格达及其周围从事破坏活动。

In addition, the rebel leadership says it will move “trained” security forces from Benghazi, in the East, to Tripoli, in the West, to avoid perhaps the biggest mistake made in Iraq, and keep the remains of the regime’s armed forces together. But how would that work, given the historic tension and animosity between the Eastern and Western Libyan tribes?

此外，反叛分子领导人说，它将调动“训练有素”的安全部队，从东部的班加西，到西部的的黎波里。这是为了避免在伊拉克曾犯下的可能是最大的错误，并把前政权武装力量的残余部队集中到一起。但是，由于东部和西部利比亚部落之间历史性的紧张情绪和敌意，这种行动如何实现？

In Libya, tribal loyalty rules supreme. It can be just as strong – and deadly – as sectarian ties in Iraq. In 1969, Gadhafi overthrew the Eastern tribal King Idris. For more than 40 years, Gadhafi survived by isolating, impoverishing, and sometimes crushing those tribes, near Benghazi. Now, seething with rage and greed, those same tribes want their due. Meanwhile, Western tribes, even those who side with the rebels, want anything but.

在利比亚，忠于部落的规则至高无上。它与伊拉克的宗派关系一样强大 -- 而且致命。1969年，卡扎菲推翻了东部的部落酋长伊德里斯。在40多年中，卡扎菲通过对班加西附近这些部落的隔离、贫困化、有时甚至消灭来维持统治。现在，随着愤怒和贪婪情绪的膨胀，那些同样的部落希望得到应得的东西。与此同时，西方的部落，即使是那些与反对派站在一起的部落，也想得到一切。

It may be as dangerous for a Benghazi policeman or soldier to work the streets of Tripoli as it would have been for a Sunni cop to survive in Sadr City. And if Libyan security forces can’t manage to unite, who then would fill the vacuum? U.N. peacekeepers? The African Union? Or, more likely, French, British and U.S. “special advisors” and troops?

一名班加西警察或士兵在的黎波里的街道上执勤时，面临的危险性大概与一名在萨德尔城（伊拉克什叶派居住区，曾发生针对逊尼派的暴力事件）幸存的逊尼派警官相等。如果利比亚安全部队不能设法团结起来，那么谁将填补真空呢？是联合国维和部队？还是非洲联盟？或者更有可能的，法国，英国和美国的“特别顾问”及军队？

Remember the Bush administration’s vision for post-Saddam Iraq back in 2003? That, after the Iraqi people rose up as one and Saddam Hussein fell, the nation’s rebuilding would be financed by oil money?

还记得2003年布什政府对后萨达姆时代伊拉克的观点吗？那个观点是，在伊拉克人民团结一心和萨达姆倒台之后，国家将通过石油交易获得重建资金。

What happened? Instead, insurgents sabotaged pipelines, assassinated engineers and managers, and suppressed Iraq’s oil industry for years. That same scenario could play out in Libya if today’s flimsy rebel coalition disintegrates into fighting between Libyan tribes, or between secular Libyans and Islamists.

发生了什么呢？相反，武装分子破坏管线，暗杀工程师和管理人员，并抑制伊拉克石油工业达数年之久。今天，如果脆弱的利比亚反对派联盟解体，而转变成部落间的战斗，或世俗利比亚人与YSL主义之间的战斗，同样的情况就可能会发生。

Thursday’s “London Times” summed up the worry, saying, “complacency would be foolish. Looting, revenge attacks against Gadhafi loyalists or internecine fighting could all make life rocky as any new regime seeks to gain a foothold in the country.”  

周四的《伦敦时报》总结了这种担忧，说道：“自满是愚蠢的。抢劫、针对卡扎菲支持者的报复性袭击或自相残杀的争斗，都可能造成局势动荡。任何一个新政权都希望在这个国家找到立足之地.”

Seen this movie before

似曾相识的电影

What is promised for Libya looks like a familiar movie.

对利比亚的承诺，看起来像一场熟悉的电影。

Iraq, like Libya, tried to move from decades of dictatorship to democracy almost overnight. It wrote a new constitution, held nation-wide elections – but that didn’t prevent an insurgency from killing thousands of U.S. troops and Iraqi civilians; it didn’t stop Sunni-Shiite bloodshed; nor did it prevent the rise of al-Qaida in Mesopotamia, one of the terrorist group’s most brutal affiliates.

像利比亚一样，伊拉克也曾试图在一夜之间，从数十年的DC统治过渡到MZ。它写出了新宪法，举行全国选举 -- 但它并没有阻止造成数千名美军和伊拉克平民死亡的叛乱；并没有制止逊尼派和什叶派的流血冲突；也没有防止美索不达米亚地区基地组织的崛起。这是该恐怖集团最残忍的附属组织之一。

Rifkind, the former British Foreign Minister, said that “there is no evidence that [Libya’s Islamists] have any significant following.” But that was also the case in Iraq in 2003. Islamist radicals emerged there from the chaos and power vacuum left behind.

前英国外交大臣里夫金德说：“没有证据证明，[利比亚的YSL主义分子]有大量的追随者。”但是2003年的伊拉克也是这种情况。YSL激进分子从混乱和遗留的权力真空中大量涌现。

It’s too early to say if Libya can avoid either, and not repeat history.

如果要说利比亚能够避免而不是重复历史，现在还言之过早。

Will a post-Gadhafi Libya look like Iraq?

后卡扎菲时代的利比亚是否会像伊拉克？

By Jim Maceda, NBC News Correspondent

LONDON – Black smoke billowed from parts of the capital. The crack of gunfire echoed off buildings. Rag-tag gunmen manned checkpoints on dozens of street corners, covered in bullet-belts and brandishing RPG launchers. A massive statue symbolizing the dictator’s rule had fallen just two days before. Some were still kicking at his likeness and tearing up his posters.

伦敦 -- 滚滚的黑烟从首都部分地区冒出。噼啪作响的枪声回荡在建筑物中。衣着杂乱的武装人员控制了数十个街角的检查站，他们身披子弹带，挥舞着RPG火箭筒。就在两天前，一座象征DC者统治的巨大雕像已经倒塌。一些人仍然在踢打着他的肖像，撕毁着他的宣传画。

But many others were keen to withdraw funds from the bank, reopen their shops and put their lives back together. Some were giddy with revolution. Others feared the looting they’d witnessed and warned of worse to come. The people were awash in weapons. The dictator, meanwhile, had disappeared.

但是还有许多人急于从银行提取资金，让店铺重新开张，一起使他们的生活恢复原状。有的人被革命搞得晕头转向。其他人担心他们曾亲眼目睹的抢劫，警告说今后会更糟。武器在人群中泛滥。与此同时，DC者已经消失。

This might sound like today’s Tripoli, but this was the scene in Baghdad as our NBC News convoy drove into the war-torn city on April 11, 2003.

这可能听起来像今天的的黎波里，但是，这种情景，发生在饱受战争蹂躏的巴格达。2003年4月11日，我们NBC新闻车队曾进入这座城市。

Bagdad? Tripoli?

巴格达？的黎波里？

I find myself flashing constantly back to those heady days as I watch the amazing images of the collapse of the Gadhafi regime. It was a collapse which, as with Saddam Hussein’s, outpaced my own expectations. I’m clearly not alone. Here in London, many British papers have been replete with editorials by “experts” recalling early “post-Saddam” Iraq, and drawing comparisons – and mostly differences – with post-Gadhafi Libya.

我发现，当我目睹卡扎菲政权崩溃的惊人一幕时，那些令人陶醉的日子不断地在我脑海中浮现。这种崩溃，就像与萨达姆·侯赛因的崩溃一样，远远超过了我本人的期望。我显然不是孤独的。现在的伦敦，许多英国报纸已经充斥着“专家们”发表的社论，回忆伊拉克先前的“后萨达姆时代”，并与后卡扎菲时代的利比亚 -- 主要是不同点 -- 进行比较。

Among them, former British Foreign Minister Malcolm Rifkind neatly laid out the biggest contrasts in an editorial in the Times of London.

其中，前英国外交大臣马尔科姆·里夫金德，在《伦敦时报》的社论中，轻车熟路地发表了最长的一篇对比文章。

First and foremost, Rifkind pointed out that the Libyan people – unlike the Iraqis – fought for and won their freedom. Iraqis, he wrote, had their freedom handed to them. Secondly, Iraqis had to suffer “the humiliation” of a U.S. occupation for years; but there are no “foreign boots” on the ground in Libya, though a small contingent of U.N. peacekeepers may be welcomed to help police Tripoli. Thirdly, the “seeds of civil war” were already planted in Iraq, with deepening bad blood between the Shiite majority, who were suddenly handed power, and Saddam’s Sunnis, who had lost their traditional hold on it.

首先，里夫金德指出，利比亚人民 -- 与伊拉克人民不同 -- 争取并赢得了他们的自由。他写道，伊拉克人由别人把自由交给他们。其次，伊拉克人不得不承受美国占领多年所带来的“耻辱”；然而，即使一支联合国维和部队的小分队可能有助于帮助的黎波里警方，但是并没有“外国军队”踏上利比亚的土地。第三，“内战的种子”已经播洒到伊拉克，因为突然获得权力的多数民族什叶派，与失去了传统权力的萨达姆的逊尼派之间，厌恶感正在日益加深。

These differences are real, and Libya is not Iraq for many other reasons. But the rebels, and the NATO coalition that helped them win, are clearly worried about the similarities, and about not repeating the mistakes made in the days and weeks after Saddam’s fall.

这些差异是真实的，因为诸多原因，利比亚不是伊拉克。但是利比亚反对派，还有帮助他们获胜的北约组织，已经对种种相似性表现出了担忧，他们不想重复在萨达姆倒台后的那些岁月里，曾经犯下的错误。

Lots of promises

种种承诺

The rebel leadership has promised to include all Libyans in the New Libya. It’s asked policemen to stay at their posts. It claims that Libya will generate enough income through its restored oil industry to pay for its own nation building. And it promises a new constitution, a national referendum, and both free and fair parliamentary and presidential elections.

反对派领导人已经承诺，新利比亚将包括所有的利比亚人。它要求警察坚守岗位。它声称，利比亚将通过恢复石油生产来获得足够的收入，用于支持本国的建设。它还承诺一部新宪法，一次全民公决，一次自由公正的议会及总统选举。

Encouraging? Of course; but let’s take a step back again in time.

是鼓励吗？当然；但是，让我们再次及时地后退一步。

The security vacuum left in Baghdad was filled by over-armed, disoriented U.S. soldiers, who did little more than watch, agog, as anything with value was looted.

留在巴格达的安全真空，被全副武装、四处游荡的美军士兵所填补。他们除了观望之外，没有做任何事，因为任何有价值的东西都被洗劫一空。

Who will fill a similar security vacuum in Tripoli if those Libyan police are too afraid of pro-Gadhafi snipers – or rockets – to actually police the streets? It would seem that unless Gadhafi and his sons are captured or killed, a pro-regime insurgency may well take root quickly. They could do as much damage in Tripoli as the black-clad Fedayeen Saddam, a paramilitary group loyal to the former Ba’athist government of Saddam Hussein, did in and around Baghdad.

如果这些利比亚警察因为害怕亲卡扎菲的狙击手 -- 或火箭筒手 -- 而不敢上街执勤，那么谁将填补的黎波里的类似安全真空呢？看起来，除非卡扎菲和他的儿子们被抓获或击毙，否则亲卡扎菲政权的叛乱行动会迅速扎根。在的黎波里，他们可能造成很大破坏，就像身穿黑衣的“萨达姆敢死队”那样。“萨达姆敢死队”是一个忠于前总统萨达姆复兴党政府的准军事集团，他们在巴格达及其周围从事破坏活动。

In addition, the rebel leadership says it will move “trained” security forces from Benghazi, in the East, to Tripoli, in the West, to avoid perhaps the biggest mistake made in Iraq, and keep the remains of the regime’s armed forces together. But how would that work, given the historic tension and animosity between the Eastern and Western Libyan tribes?

此外，反叛分子领导人说，它将调动“训练有素”的安全部队，从东部的班加西，到西部的的黎波里。这是为了避免在伊拉克曾犯下的可能是最大的错误，并把前政权武装力量的残余部队集中到一起。但是，由于东部和西部利比亚部落之间历史性的紧张情绪和敌意，这种行动如何实现？

In Libya, tribal loyalty rules supreme. It can be just as strong – and deadly – as sectarian ties in Iraq. In 1969, Gadhafi overthrew the Eastern tribal King Idris. For more than 40 years, Gadhafi survived by isolating, impoverishing, and sometimes crushing those tribes, near Benghazi. Now, seething with rage and greed, those same tribes want their due. Meanwhile, Western tribes, even those who side with the rebels, want anything but.

在利比亚，忠于部落的规则至高无上。它与伊拉克的宗派关系一样强大 -- 而且致命。1969年，卡扎菲推翻了东部的部落酋长伊德里斯。在40多年中，卡扎菲通过对班加西附近这些部落的隔离、贫困化、有时甚至消灭来维持统治。现在，随着愤怒和贪婪情绪的膨胀，那些同样的部落希望得到应得的东西。与此同时，西方的部落，即使是那些与反对派站在一起的部落，也想得到一切。

It may be as dangerous for a Benghazi policeman or soldier to work the streets of Tripoli as it would have been for a Sunni cop to survive in Sadr City. And if Libyan security forces can’t manage to unite, who then would fill the vacuum? U.N. peacekeepers? The African Union? Or, more likely, French, British and U.S. “special advisors” and troops?

一名班加西警察或士兵在的黎波里的街道上执勤时，面临的危险性大概与一名在萨德尔城（伊拉克什叶派居住区，曾发生针对逊尼派的暴力事件）幸存的逊尼派警官相等。如果利比亚安全部队不能设法团结起来，那么谁将填补真空呢？是联合国维和部队？还是非洲联盟？或者更有可能的，法国，英国和美国的“特别顾问”及军队？

Remember the Bush administration’s vision for post-Saddam Iraq back in 2003? That, after the Iraqi people rose up as one and Saddam Hussein fell, the nation’s rebuilding would be financed by oil money?

还记得2003年布什政府对后萨达姆时代伊拉克的观点吗？那个观点是，在伊拉克人民团结一心和萨达姆倒台之后，国家将通过石油交易获得重建资金。

What happened? Instead, insurgents sabotaged pipelines, assassinated engineers and managers, and suppressed Iraq’s oil industry for years. That same scenario could play out in Libya if today’s flimsy rebel coalition disintegrates into fighting between Libyan tribes, or between secular Libyans and Islamists.

发生了什么呢？相反，武装分子破坏管线，暗杀工程师和管理人员，并抑制伊拉克石油工业达数年之久。今天，如果脆弱的利比亚反对派联盟解体，而转变成部落间的战斗，或世俗利比亚人与YSL主义之间的战斗，同样的情况就可能会发生。

Thursday’s “London Times” summed up the worry, saying, “complacency would be foolish. Looting, revenge attacks against Gadhafi loyalists or internecine fighting could all make life rocky as any new regime seeks to gain a foothold in the country.”  

周四的《伦敦时报》总结了这种担忧，说道：“自满是愚蠢的。抢劫、针对卡扎菲支持者的报复性袭击或自相残杀的争斗，都可能造成局势动荡。任何一个新政权都希望在这个国家找到立足之地.”

Seen this movie before

似曾相识的电影

What is promised for Libya looks like a familiar movie.

对利比亚的承诺，看起来像一场熟悉的电影。

Iraq, like Libya, tried to move from decades of dictatorship to democracy almost overnight. It wrote a new constitution, held nation-wide elections – but that didn’t prevent an insurgency from killing thousands of U.S. troops and Iraqi civilians; it didn’t stop Sunni-Shiite bloodshed; nor did it prevent the rise of al-Qaida in Mesopotamia, one of the terrorist group’s most brutal affiliates.

像利比亚一样，伊拉克也曾试图在一夜之间，从数十年的DC统治过渡到MZ。它写出了新宪法，举行全国选举 -- 但它并没有阻止造成数千名美军和伊拉克平民死亡的叛乱；并没有制止逊尼派和什叶派的流血冲突；也没有防止美索不达米亚地区基地组织的崛起。这是该恐怖集团最残忍的附属组织之一。

Rifkind, the former British Foreign Minister, said that “there is no evidence that [Libya’s Islamists] have any significant following.” But that was also the case in Iraq in 2003. Islamist radicals emerged there from the chaos and power vacuum left behind.

前英国外交大臣里夫金德说：“没有证据证明，[利比亚的YSL主义分子]有大量的追随者。”但是2003年的伊拉克也是这种情况。YSL激进分子从混乱和遗留的权力真空中大量涌现。

It’s too early to say if Libya can avoid either, and not repeat history.

如果要说利比亚能够避免而不是重复历史，现在还言之过早。