[转帖]China\'s influence soars in Asia

<B>China's influence soars in Asia</B>By BRAD GLOSSERMAN

HONOLULU -- A battle for the hearts and minds of Asians has begun. While there has been considerable attention on "the rise of China," we're only slowly beginning to appreciate the meaning of that overused phrase. China's economic influence is well apparent. It has become Southeast Asia's leading trade partner -- importing some $413 billion worth of goods from the region last year -- and South Korea's as well. In 2003, China accounted for 80 percent of Japan's export growth, and that trend has persisted in 2004.

Not surprisingly, there is little talk about "the China threat" anymore. Rather, everyone prefers to think of China as an "opportunity." They are right, but there is also an element of whistling past the graveyard. Make no mistake: There is no sidestepping China's economic challenge. There is little alternative to accommodation, although governments can try to soften the blow.

The real China challenge flows from the influence that derives from that economic power. I don't worry about military power (at least not for some generations). China needs a peaceful and stable international environment so it can devote its energies to the economic development that will provide the foundation for the resumption of its role as the leading power in the region. Military muscle-flexing will upset the status quo and its neighbors. Beijing's restrained response to the Taiwanese election is proof that the Chinese leadership understands the stakes.

The real issue is the more subtle forms of influence that Beijing can now muster. While it is still to early to say that China is accumulating "soft power" -- and the cultural nationalism at the heart of Chinese identity will make that a difficult sell -- Asian governments will try to accommodate Beijing to avoid incurring its displeasure or, worse, its wrath. The attempt to leverage bullet train sales to political advantage -- to reward France or Germany and punish Japan -- is one spectacularly unsubtle exercise of this sort of power, and it provides a hint of what lies ahead.

But as in the Taiwan case, China's new leaders are smart and shrewd. In other words, don't expect such ham-fistedness to continue. It will get much more subtle. It already has.

As Southeast Asian nations grow increasingly concerned about their economic prospects, Beijing has reached out, offering the Association of Southeast Asian Nations a special relationship with China. In recent years, China has agreed on a declaration of a code of conduct for the South China Sea and joined ASEAN's Treaty of Amity and Cooperation. This "smile diplomacy" has gone a long way toward defusing concern about Beijing's long-term intentions.

When U.S. President George W. Bush swung through the region last year, he made terrorism his main theme, hammering home the dangers that regional governments must confront. Chinese President Hu Jintao followed Bush throughout that tour, and his message focused on the opportunities that lie ahead. If Bush was darkness, Hu was light. The latter was much more palatable and congenial: Bush may have been right, but this exercise is about winning hearts and minds. Advantage Hu.

In Northeast Asia, China is proving equally creative. It has taken an unprecedented diplomatic initiative in trying to bring the six-party talks to completion. It has engaged in vigorous shuttle diplomacy. In so doing, it has won considerable regard in Washington, Seoul and Tokyo.

While much of the attention at the six-party talks has focused on who is the villain -- the United States or North Korea -- China has worked slowly and capably to win the confidence of all the parties involved and make itself a central player in Northeast Asian diplomacy. That is power.

More alarming for American strategists, China also has a vision for regional relations and -- surprise, surprise! -- it differs considerably from the existing structure. Beijing wants to eliminate the bilateral alliances that it considers a holdover from the Cold War era and move to a multilateral security framework that is based on "mutual trust, mutual benefit, quality and coordination." There is already talk of using the six-party talks as the core of a regional security forum.

The idea may be far-fetched, but it isn't impossible. Working out and then implementing the details of the "grand bargain" that will "solve" the North Korean nuclear crisis will take years and will require an institutional mechanism. The consultations that will make that possible could brighten the atmosphere that makes a broader security framework a reality.

China has already embraced multilateralism in other regions. Along with Russia, it has been a key mover in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a group that -- name notwithstanding -- is headquartered in Beijing. Beijing is already "organizing" the region in line with its preferences.

Beijing isn't forcing governments to adopt its vision of regional relations. It is proving remarkably adept at providing a vision and then giving those countries compelling reasons to join. It's a masterful performance and a good indication of what is to come. This competition of ideas in Asia may well be the defining battle of the 21st century.

<I>Brad Glosserman, a contributing editor to The Japan Times, is director of research at Pacific Forum CSIS, a Honolulu-based think tank. He can be reached at bradgpf@hawaii.rr.com

</I><B>The Japan Times: May 17, 2004</B><B>China's influence soars in Asia</B>By BRAD GLOSSERMAN

HONOLULU -- A battle for the hearts and minds of Asians has begun. While there has been considerable attention on "the rise of China," we're only slowly beginning to appreciate the meaning of that overused phrase. China's economic influence is well apparent. It has become Southeast Asia's leading trade partner -- importing some $413 billion worth of goods from the region last year -- and South Korea's as well. In 2003, China accounted for 80 percent of Japan's export growth, and that trend has persisted in 2004.

Not surprisingly, there is little talk about "the China threat" anymore. Rather, everyone prefers to think of China as an "opportunity." They are right, but there is also an element of whistling past the graveyard. Make no mistake: There is no sidestepping China's economic challenge. There is little alternative to accommodation, although governments can try to soften the blow.

The real China challenge flows from the influence that derives from that economic power. I don't worry about military power (at least not for some generations). China needs a peaceful and stable international environment so it can devote its energies to the economic development that will provide the foundation for the resumption of its role as the leading power in the region. Military muscle-flexing will upset the status quo and its neighbors. Beijing's restrained response to the Taiwanese election is proof that the Chinese leadership understands the stakes.

The real issue is the more subtle forms of influence that Beijing can now muster. While it is still to early to say that China is accumulating "soft power" -- and the cultural nationalism at the heart of Chinese identity will make that a difficult sell -- Asian governments will try to accommodate Beijing to avoid incurring its displeasure or, worse, its wrath. The attempt to leverage bullet train sales to political advantage -- to reward France or Germany and punish Japan -- is one spectacularly unsubtle exercise of this sort of power, and it provides a hint of what lies ahead.

But as in the Taiwan case, China's new leaders are smart and shrewd. In other words, don't expect such ham-fistedness to continue. It will get much more subtle. It already has.

As Southeast Asian nations grow increasingly concerned about their economic prospects, Beijing has reached out, offering the Association of Southeast Asian Nations a special relationship with China. In recent years, China has agreed on a declaration of a code of conduct for the South China Sea and joined ASEAN's Treaty of Amity and Cooperation. This "smile diplomacy" has gone a long way toward defusing concern about Beijing's long-term intentions.

When U.S. President George W. Bush swung through the region last year, he made terrorism his main theme, hammering home the dangers that regional governments must confront. Chinese President Hu Jintao followed Bush throughout that tour, and his message focused on the opportunities that lie ahead. If Bush was darkness, Hu was light. The latter was much more palatable and congenial: Bush may have been right, but this exercise is about winning hearts and minds. Advantage Hu.

In Northeast Asia, China is proving equally creative. It has taken an unprecedented diplomatic initiative in trying to bring the six-party talks to completion. It has engaged in vigorous shuttle diplomacy. In so doing, it has won considerable regard in Washington, Seoul and Tokyo.

While much of the attention at the six-party talks has focused on who is the villain -- the United States or North Korea -- China has worked slowly and capably to win the confidence of all the parties involved and make itself a central player in Northeast Asian diplomacy. That is power.

More alarming for American strategists, China also has a vision for regional relations and -- surprise, surprise! -- it differs considerably from the existing structure. Beijing wants to eliminate the bilateral alliances that it considers a holdover from the Cold War era and move to a multilateral security framework that is based on "mutual trust, mutual benefit, quality and coordination." There is already talk of using the six-party talks as the core of a regional security forum.

The idea may be far-fetched, but it isn't impossible. Working out and then implementing the details of the "grand bargain" that will "solve" the North Korean nuclear crisis will take years and will require an institutional mechanism. The consultations that will make that possible could brighten the atmosphere that makes a broader security framework a reality.

China has already embraced multilateralism in other regions. Along with Russia, it has been a key mover in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a group that -- name notwithstanding -- is headquartered in Beijing. Beijing is already "organizing" the region in line with its preferences.

Beijing isn't forcing governments to adopt its vision of regional relations. It is proving remarkably adept at providing a vision and then giving those countries compelling reasons to join. It's a masterful performance and a good indication of what is to come. This competition of ideas in Asia may well be the defining battle of the 21st century.

<I>Brad Glosserman, a contributing editor to The Japan Times, is director of research at Pacific Forum CSIS, a Honolulu-based think tank. He can be reached at bradgpf@hawaii.rr.com

</I><B>The Japan Times: May 17, 2004</B>