[原创翻译]——华盛顿邮报：学会和有核国家朝鲜相处!!!! ...

Learn to live with a nuclear North Korea
ASSOCIATED PRESS - A man in South Korea watches TV news showing file footage of the demolition of the cooling tower of the Yongbyon nuclear complex, following a report of a possible nuclear test conducted by North Korea on Feb. 12.
学会和有核国家朝鲜相处

相关新闻：一个在韩国的人，正在观看电视新闻中一段有关原子能冷却塔被摧毁的新闻片段，随之的报道却是2月12日朝鲜核实验。
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By Ted Galen Carpenter,
Feb 14, 2013 10:11 PM EST
泰德.格兰.卡朋特 2013 2月14日早上10点11分

Ted Galen Carpenter, a senior fellow for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, is a co-author of “The Korean Conundrum: America’s Troubled Relations With North and South Korea.”
泰德.格兰.卡朋特 是一个在加图研究所的资深研究员，他的工作是研究国防政策和外交政策。他是 《朝韩之谜：美国与朝韩麻烦关系》的共同作者。


After North Korea’s nuclear test Tuesday, the West’s reaction has been as predictable as it will be ineffective: lots of hand-wringing, calls for more sanctions, warnings of vague consequences if North Korea continues to violate U.N. resolutions. As President Obama said in his State of the Union address, the North Koreans’ provocations “will only further isolate them, as we stand by our allies, strengthen our own missile defense and lead the world in taking firm action in response to these threats.”
在朝鲜星期二的核试验后，西方尽可能的反应平静，使之不产生影响。如果朝鲜继续无视联合国决议，那么就会有更多的紧张，大堆制裁的要求，大堆不定结果的警告。 像奥巴马在美国联合国所在地说的那样，“朝鲜的挑衅只会进一步的孤立自己，我们会与同盟一起，共同加紧导弹防御计划，带领世界进行坚实的行动以回应威胁。

Unfortunately, none of these actions will curb Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions.
不幸的是，这些举措难以阻止平壤的核武野心。

For years, we’ve tried carrots and, more often, sticks with the Hermit Kingdom, to little avail. Even the 1994 agreement between Washington and Pyongyang that temporarily froze Kim Jong Il’s plutonium program did not really constrain the regime — it merely shifted to a parallel uranium-enrichment program. And North Korea has conducted two previous nuclear tests, in 2006 and 2009.
历经数年，我们尝试着以更多的胡萝卜代替大棒对付朝鲜以产生实效。 甚至在1994年华盛顿与平壤之间的协议中，暂时冻结金正日的钚计划，也没得到严格执行。而朝鲜已经在2006年和2009年进行了两次核试验。

It’s time for a new approach. After all, the only thing more dangerous than a North Korea with nuclear weapons is a nuclear-armed North Korea with which the United States has no productive relationship. The nation might become a supermarket for nuclear technology, weapons components and even fully assembled nuclear weapons, available to any purchaser. Washington and its allies need to accept that it may be too dangerous to try to isolate a nuclear power instead of trying to establish a constructive relationship.
现在已经是该做接触的新时期了。毕竟唯一比拥核朝鲜更加危险的是美国和一个拥核的朝鲜没有任何良性关系。这个国家很可能成为贩卖核武器的超级市场，所售包括核技术，核武零件，乃至核武器成品，并且开放给所有买家。 华盛顿和它的盟友需要接受的是：也许孤立朝鲜比建立一个有建设性的美朝关系要危险。

In a scenario with no good options, we may have to learn to live with a nuclear-armed North Korea.
推测不出好结果的情况下,我们可能要学会如何和一个有核朝鲜共存。
Rescinding sanctions would not be a huge loss. Those measures have impeded North Korea’s access to technology, interfered with whatever meager trade its pathetic economy generates and crippled the country’s participation in the international financial system. They have caused considerable pain to ordinary North Koreans — famine and cannibalism are not unheard of — but have merely inconvenienced the regime.
解除制裁可能不会是一个巨大的损失。这些措施过去阻止着朝鲜接触到科技，干预着它悲剧般的经济生产下产生的弱小贸易，严重限制着它参与国际金融系统。这些措施也对普通朝鲜人民造成了巨大的痛苦——闻所未闻的饥荒与互食。但是，对朝鲜政权却只有较小影响。

Washington has repeatedly warned Pyongyang that it faces growing international isolation unless it relinquishes its nuclear ambitions. But that ultimatum lacks credibility, because everyone knows that unless China imposes harsh sanctions, North Korea will never be truly isolated. The nation gets extensive economic assistance, including much of its food and energy, from Beijing. And Chinese officials are not willing to turn their backs on a long-standing ally, a buffer between China and a U.S.-led East Asia. North Korea knows it, too, and has essentially called our bluff.
华盛顿重复着警告平壤：朝鲜将面临越来越强的国际孤立，除非它铁定放弃自己的拥核野心。然而，最终来说这些都话都缺乏可信度，因为众所周知的是除非中国进行严厉制裁，朝鲜才会被真的孤立。中国给予着大量经济援助包括海量食物与能源。但中国官方也不愿对其长久并立的盟友冷面相向。朝鲜是中国和美国领导的东亚部分之间的缓冲带。朝鲜自己也知道，自己是必要的中美缓冲。

Hawks will cry, “Appeasement!” But we can’t lose perspective. North Korea’s embryonic nuclear arsenal and slowly improving missile capabilities cannot directly menace the American homeland. The United States has thousands of sophisticated nuclear warheads that are generations ahead of anything the North can muster. Pyongyang’s leaders would have to be suicidal to assault the United States. Although members of North Korea’s elite are brutal and
ruthless, they aren’t that crazy. What strategists call “primary deterrence,” or preventing an attack on U.S. shores, remains as effective and credible as ever.
鹰派们会大喊：“绥靖啊”但是，我们不能不看清楚。朝鲜的初级核武器和缓慢发展的导弹能力没能力威胁美国本土。美国有着上万的成熟的核武领先数代于朝鲜所能汲取的核武。平壤的领导人敢于袭击美国就是自杀。虽然朝鲜的精英分子残忍而无情，但他们也不会那么疯狂。战略家们该进行 基本威慑 或者预防攻击美国海岸线，使美国保留象以前一样的影响力和可信性。

http://www.washingtonpost.com/op ... e81040ba_story.html


Learn to live with a nuclear North Korea
ASSOCIATED PRESS - A man in South Korea watches TV news showing file footage of the demolition of the cooling tower of the Yongbyon nuclear complex, following a report of a possible nuclear test conducted by North Korea on Feb. 12.
学会和有核国家朝鲜相处

相关新闻：一个在韩国的人，正在观看电视新闻中一段有关原子能冷却塔被摧毁的新闻片段，随之的报道却是2月12日朝鲜核实验。
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By Ted Galen Carpenter,
Feb 14, 2013 10:11 PM EST
泰德.格兰.卡朋特 2013 2月14日早上10点11分

Ted Galen Carpenter, a senior fellow for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, is a co-author of “The Korean Conundrum: America’s Troubled Relations With North and South Korea.”
泰德.格兰.卡朋特 是一个在加图研究所的资深研究员，他的工作是研究国防政策和外交政策。他是 《朝韩之谜：美国与朝韩麻烦关系》的共同作者。


After North Korea’s nuclear test Tuesday, the West’s reaction has been as predictable as it will be ineffective: lots of hand-wringing, calls for more sanctions, warnings of vague consequences if North Korea continues to violate U.N. resolutions. As President Obama said in his State of the Union address, the North Koreans’ provocations “will only further isolate them, as we stand by our allies, strengthen our own missile defense and lead the world in taking firm action in response to these threats.”
在朝鲜星期二的核试验后，西方尽可能的反应平静，使之不产生影响。如果朝鲜继续无视联合国决议，那么就会有更多的紧张，大堆制裁的要求，大堆不定结果的警告。 像奥巴马在美国联合国所在地说的那样，“朝鲜的挑衅只会进一步的孤立自己，我们会与同盟一起，共同加紧导弹防御计划，带领世界进行坚实的行动以回应威胁。

Unfortunately, none of these actions will curb Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions.
不幸的是，这些举措难以阻止平壤的核武野心。

For years, we’ve tried carrots and, more often, sticks with the Hermit Kingdom, to little avail. Even the 1994 agreement between Washington and Pyongyang that temporarily froze Kim Jong Il’s plutonium program did not really constrain the regime — it merely shifted to a parallel uranium-enrichment program. And North Korea has conducted two previous nuclear tests, in 2006 and 2009.
历经数年，我们尝试着以更多的胡萝卜代替大棒对付朝鲜以产生实效。 甚至在1994年华盛顿与平壤之间的协议中，暂时冻结金正日的钚计划，也没得到严格执行。而朝鲜已经在2006年和2009年进行了两次核试验。

It’s time for a new approach. After all, the only thing more dangerous than a North Korea with nuclear weapons is a nuclear-armed North Korea with which the United States has no productive relationship. The nation might become a supermarket for nuclear technology, weapons components and even fully assembled nuclear weapons, available to any purchaser. Washington and its allies need to accept that it may be too dangerous to try to isolate a nuclear power instead of trying to establish a constructive relationship.
现在已经是该做接触的新时期了。毕竟唯一比拥核朝鲜更加危险的是美国和一个拥核的朝鲜没有任何良性关系。这个国家很可能成为贩卖核武器的超级市场，所售包括核技术，核武零件，乃至核武器成品，并且开放给所有买家。 华盛顿和它的盟友需要接受的是：也许孤立朝鲜比建立一个有建设性的美朝关系要危险。

In a scenario with no good options, we may have to learn to live with a nuclear-armed North Korea.
推测不出好结果的情况下,我们可能要学会如何和一个有核朝鲜共存。
Rescinding sanctions would not be a huge loss. Those measures have impeded North Korea’s access to technology, interfered with whatever meager trade its pathetic economy generates and crippled the country’s participation in the international financial system. They have caused considerable pain to ordinary North Koreans — famine and cannibalism are not unheard of — but have merely inconvenienced the regime.
解除制裁可能不会是一个巨大的损失。这些措施过去阻止着朝鲜接触到科技，干预着它悲剧般的经济生产下产生的弱小贸易，严重限制着它参与国际金融系统。这些措施也对普通朝鲜人民造成了巨大的痛苦——闻所未闻的饥荒与互食。但是，对朝鲜政权却只有较小影响。

Washington has repeatedly warned Pyongyang that it faces growing international isolation unless it relinquishes its nuclear ambitions. But that ultimatum lacks credibility, because everyone knows that unless China imposes harsh sanctions, North Korea will never be truly isolated. The nation gets extensive economic assistance, including much of its food and energy, from Beijing. And Chinese officials are not willing to turn their backs on a long-standing ally, a buffer between China and a U.S.-led East Asia. North Korea knows it, too, and has essentially called our bluff.
华盛顿重复着警告平壤：朝鲜将面临越来越强的国际孤立，除非它铁定放弃自己的拥核野心。然而，最终来说这些都话都缺乏可信度，因为众所周知的是除非中国进行严厉制裁，朝鲜才会被真的孤立。中国给予着大量经济援助包括海量食物与能源。但中国官方也不愿对其长久并立的盟友冷面相向。朝鲜是中国和美国领导的东亚部分之间的缓冲带。朝鲜自己也知道，自己是必要的中美缓冲。

Hawks will cry, “Appeasement!” But we can’t lose perspective. North Korea’s embryonic nuclear arsenal and slowly improving missile capabilities cannot directly menace the American homeland. The United States has thousands of sophisticated nuclear warheads that are generations ahead of anything the North can muster. Pyongyang’s leaders would have to be suicidal to assault the United States. Although members of North Korea’s elite are brutal and
ruthless, they aren’t that crazy. What strategists call “primary deterrence,” or preventing an attack on U.S. shores, remains as effective and credible as ever.
鹰派们会大喊：“绥靖啊”但是，我们不能不看清楚。朝鲜的初级核武器和缓慢发展的导弹能力没能力威胁美国本土。美国有着上万的成熟的核武领先数代于朝鲜所能汲取的核武。平壤的领导人敢于袭击美国就是自杀。虽然朝鲜的精英分子残忍而无情，但他们也不会那么疯狂。战略家们该进行 基本威慑 或者预防攻击美国海岸线，使美国保留象以前一样的影响力和可信性。

http://www.washingtonpost.com/op ... e81040ba_story.html