【无良原创翻译】图们三角洲的马汉：中国海军对罗先的野 ...

Mahan Over the Tumen Delta: China’s Naval Ambitions for Rason
图们三角洲的马汉：中国海军对罗先的野心

This guest essay comes to us from Sabine van Ameijden, Department of War Studies, King’s College, in London.

by Sabine van Ameijden 作者来自伦敦国王学院战争研究系

http://sinonk.com/2012/04/18/mahan-over-the-tumen-delta-chinas-naval-ambitions-for-rason/

      In spite of Kim Jong Un’s recent assertion that the military is his “first, second and third priority”, it is observable that North Korea is moving away from a military-first policy (Songun, 선군) towards a focus on the principle of self-reliance (Juche, 주체) and economic development. Such a strategy can be perceived as a necessary one, considering that the country’s economy is laboring under crippling shortages and inefficiencies, and as domestic legitimacy remains fundamental to any leadership transition, even one buttressed by Kim blood ties. Rason has remained both physically and economically peripheral to North Korea, but it may be the key for the new direction in the hermit kingdom.

尽管金三胖最近又叫嚣军队是他的“第一，第二，第三要务”，不过现在很明显北朝鲜逐渐不再实行“先军政治”，而是要自力更生和经济发展了。在现在这种什么物资都没有的经济状况，而金三本人就算有金家血统，但还是要取得国内认同的状况下，策略的改变大概是不可避免的。罗先特別市对朝鲜来说也许不管是从地理位置还是经济地位来说都不是很重要，但对朝鲜来说也许是新策略的关键之处。

In the North Korean Special Economic Zone (SEZ) of Rason, the location for the two port cities of Rajin and Sonbong, economic development is moving forward as Chinese businesses have invested in the establishment of businesses and infrastructure, especially since 2009. That year, for example, the Chinese Chuangli Group invested $3.8 million in the renovation of Rajin’s Pier No. 1, which is part of a North Korean lease to China. Chinese reporters visited in December 2010, both plugging business and asserting that there was room for further growth. Also, in anticipation of the North Korean leadership transition, China has made significant investment efforts in exchange for stability guarantees from Pyongyang. An example is the Yanbian Tianyu International Trade Company, who quadrupled the size of a bazaar market as part of this policy. Huanqiu Shibao reporter Cheng Gang again travelled to the zone in early March 2012 to drum up Chinese interest in the zone and to affirm that the DPRK had not entirely closed down to the outside after Kim Jong Il’s death.

罗先的朝鲜特别经济开发区内有两个港口城市，雄基和罗津，自从2009年以来随着中国的投资，经济有了发展。中国大连创立集团在那一年投资了三百八十万整修罗津的作为朝鲜向中国租借一部分的一号码头。中国记者在2010年12月访问了当地，看是否有发展的空间。另外为了从平壤得到权力平稳过渡的保证，中国后来投了不少钱。例子之一就是延边天宇国际贸易有限公司把一个商品市场扩大了四倍。《环球时报》的记者成钢在2012年3月又去了特区，鼓吹中国的利益及证明朝鲜在金二挂了以后没有完全与外界隔绝。

Western observers are very familiar with the formula for China’s economic involvement in Rason; in essence, it is not entirely different from China’s investments in Africa. What makes Rason particularly significant, however, are the questions being raised regarding China’s naval ambitions in the zone. China proclaims that its regional maritime policies are peacefully aimed at securing its trade, particularly in terms of energy. However, considering China’s naval ambitions in the Indian Ocean, South China Sea, and East China Sea, the question arises whether China is solely trying to protect its trade routes or if there is a Mahanian agenda to secure command of the sea? And how does this tie in with China’s ambitions for North Korea’s Rason?

西方观察家对中国在罗先的经济投资方式是不会感到陌生的，和中国在非洲的投资方式相似。但是因为中国海军可能介入此一地区，让其和其他地区不同。        中国声称她的地区海上政策是和平保护海上商业通道，尤其是能源通道，但考虑到中国在印度洋，南中国海，中国东海的野心，让人怀疑中国就仅仅是保护贸易通道，还是学习马汉，要控制大洋？而且这和中国在罗先的野心有何关系？

China looks seawards |The world is witnessing an expansion of the Chinese navy. Robert D. Kaplan explains that China’s expanding maritime orientation is a luxury. Traditionally a land power, today China’s land borders are no longer under threat and the nation can therefore afford to look seaward.[i] Also, China’s rapid economic growth ties in with an increasing energy demand. For the import of oil and natural gas, China is highly dependent on the sea lanes of communication from the Indian Ocean through the Malacca Strait to the South China Sea. Along this route China is forming the ‘String of Pearls’ through the establishment of bases by gaining access to ports and airfields, special diplomatic relationships with littoral countries and modernised military forces. Thus, for its energy security it now has become necessary for China to get involved at sea, but the development of the ‘String of Pearls’ make analysts question whether Beijing will soon move away from its proclaimed peaceful foreign policy towards a military agenda.[ii]

世界正在目睹中国海军的扩张。Robert D. Kaplan说中国的海洋目标是奢侈品。向来作为大陆力量，今天中国因为已经不存在陆上的威胁，能够有海上的目标。中国的快速的经济增长需要更多的能源，为了进口那些油气资源，中国非常依赖从印度洋来，经过马六甲海峡和南中国海的航道，尽管中国已经搞了一个“珍珠线”，和海岸国家建立特殊关系，能够使用不同的港口和机场，现代化军队。对中国来说，保护能源安全就必须有海洋存在，但是“珍珠线”让人怀疑中国是否要放弃和平方法而倾向武力解决。

Furthermore, China’s interests regarding Taiwan and several maritime territorial disputes in the South China Sea highlight its geopolitical relation to the sea. Chains of islands in the South China Sea and East China Sea, including Taiwan, geographically shield China from the east. To regain control of Taiwan and win the territorial disputes is vital in order to gain access to the Pacific. Concurrently, the PLA Navy is growing in strength and we view that China has been pursuing its blue water aspirations, illustrated by the construction of the first PLA Navy aircraft carrier in 2011.

进一步讲，中国和台湾的关系和南中国海的争端突出了中国在海上的地缘政治关系。南中国海和中国东海岛链，包括台湾，地理上保护了中国的东方。要进入太平洋就要控制台湾及赢得领土纠纷。目前解放军海军正在发展，我们认为中国在追求蓝海战略，2011年的第一艘航母就是例子。

Rason’s Development since 2009 |Since 2009 there has been significant Chinese interest in one of North Korea’s most rapidly evolving special economic zones, Rason. Rason was established as an SEZ in 1991 to allow capitalist trading market and attract foreign businesses and investors. But it has only been since 2009, when the Chinese began the Changjitu Plan (abbreviation for Changchun-Jilin-Tumen), that Rason has experienced unprecedented development. A reluctance to commit to the SEZ on behalf of the North Korean administration, due to fears for an uncontrollable spill-over of the economic reforms, explains why it has taken this long to witness tangible development in Rason. Andray Abrahamian has continuously set out why we should direct our attention to Rason in order to explore China’s activities and ambitions in the zone and in order to keep track of North Korean domestic economic change. Chinese investments, businesses and work force are flowing to Rason. Of particular significance is the construction, paid for by the Chinese, of a paved highway connecting Rason with the Chinese border city of Wonjong.[iii]

自从2009年，中国对朝鲜的快速发展的经济特区就非常感兴趣，罗先是在1991年成为特区的，允许资本主义的交易市场和外国投资。但直到2009年中国开始长吉图计划（长春—吉林—图们），罗先才快速发展。朝鲜方面一直不愿正式承认特区，因为害怕不可控的经济改革后果，解释了为神马罗先花了如此长的时间才开始发展。Andray Abrahamian一直说我们要关注罗先，这样才能了解中国在这一地区的动作和野心，以及朝鲜国内的经济变化。罗先地区有很多中国的投资，和劳工。特别值得一提的是建筑工程，中国自己出钱修了一条从罗先到中国的高速公路。

Why does China care about Rason? |China invests in Rason because of the geopolitical opportunities and challenges that rise from the zone. Under the Changjitu plan, Rason comes into play, as the economic development in North Korea enhances the prosperity of China’s Jilin province. Moreover, economic growth in North Korea is, in itself, already beneficial to China. The Special Economic Zone enhances domestic economic stability in the DPRK. Such stability is crucial for preventing a collapse of the North Korean regime, which would gravely damage China’s political and economic interests. [iv]

中国在罗先投资的原因是地缘政治和地区的挑战。根据长吉图计划，罗先也包括在内，朝鲜的经济发展对中国吉林省有利的。朝鲜本身的发展已经对中国产生了好处。特别经济区能够平稳朝鲜国内局势，这样朝鲜就不至于崩溃，中国的政经利益也就不会受到极大损害。

Regarding China’s naval ambitions, Rason is of great importance to China as the ports provide it with access to the East Sea. Above I pointed out China’s problematic access to the sea in the South China Sea and East China Sea and its consequent search for alternative routes to gain access to the Pacific. In the Northeast region China has no coast, as it is landlocked by Russian and North Korean territory. Thus the access to the East Sea greatly enhances China’s naval possibilities in the Pacific.

就中国海军的野心来看，罗先作为港口能为中国海军提供进入东海（这里的东海是指日本海，这是南棒的叫法，北棒管日本海叫朝鲜东海）的通道。之前我描述过中国海军在南中国海和中国东海的麻烦，和中国对进入太平洋的通道的不懈努力。中国东北地区没有海岸（作者的意思应该不是我们意义上的东北），俄罗斯和朝鲜的土地构成了封锁。这样的话取得进入东海（日本海）的通道，就能让中国海军极大的增强去太平洋的可能性。

At the moment China uses the renovated port in Rajin, which primarily allows the transportation of coal from Jilin province to other Chinese coastal cities, such as Shanghai. In regards of Chinese military activity in Rason, in January 2011 it had been reported that Chinese troops have been stationed in Rason, said to protect the facilities and Chinese residents. These were the first Chinese troops to be stationed in North Korea since their withdrawal from the DMZ town of Panmunjeom. Furthermore, in August 2011 a Chinese flotilla consisting of two PLA Navy exercise warships visited the North Korean east coast port city of Wonsan. Such a visit was the first of its kind since 15 years and it was said to mark the cooperative relations between the Chinese and North Korean navies.

目前中国正在使用罗津整修过的码头，主要是用来把吉林产的煤矿运往其他中国港口，例如上海。就中国在罗先的军事存在来说，2011年1月有报告说中国军队有进驻罗先，保护中国在那里的投资和公民。这是自从中国从非军事区板门店撤出以来第一次在朝鲜驻军。进一步，2011年8月两艘中国训练舰组成的小舰队访问了朝鲜的元山。这是十五年来首次此类访问，据说是中朝海军合作的象征。

Mahan Over East Asia |China’s recent turn to the sea has left analysts with much fodder for speculation about a Chinese Mahanian maritime policy to gain command of the sea. Whether China is focusing on economic development in Rason just for trade purposes or for eventual military aims is hard to conclude. Nevertheless, it is obvious that geopolitically Rason is very important to the Chinese, as it allows the PRC access to the Pacific. We should continue to monitor this area for further developments.

中国近来对海洋的注意让很多分析家胡猜中国有一个根据于马汉理论的海洋控制政策。中国在罗先是为了商贸还是最终有军事目的现在很难讲。但不管怎么说，从地缘政治上来说罗先对中国很重要，此地让中国能够进入太平洋。我们会持续关注这一地区的。Mahan Over the Tumen Delta: China’s Naval Ambitions for Rason
图们三角洲的马汉：中国海军对罗先的野心

This guest essay comes to us from Sabine van Ameijden, Department of War Studies, King’s College, in London.

by Sabine van Ameijden 作者来自伦敦国王学院战争研究系

http://sinonk.com/2012/04/18/mahan-over-the-tumen-delta-chinas-naval-ambitions-for-rason/

      In spite of Kim Jong Un’s recent assertion that the military is his “first, second and third priority”, it is observable that North Korea is moving away from a military-first policy (Songun, 선군) towards a focus on the principle of self-reliance (Juche, 주체) and economic development. Such a strategy can be perceived as a necessary one, considering that the country’s economy is laboring under crippling shortages and inefficiencies, and as domestic legitimacy remains fundamental to any leadership transition, even one buttressed by Kim blood ties. Rason has remained both physically and economically peripheral to North Korea, but it may be the key for the new direction in the hermit kingdom.

尽管金三胖最近又叫嚣军队是他的“第一，第二，第三要务”，不过现在很明显北朝鲜逐渐不再实行“先军政治”，而是要自力更生和经济发展了。在现在这种什么物资都没有的经济状况，而金三本人就算有金家血统，但还是要取得国内认同的状况下，策略的改变大概是不可避免的。罗先特別市对朝鲜来说也许不管是从地理位置还是经济地位来说都不是很重要，但对朝鲜来说也许是新策略的关键之处。

In the North Korean Special Economic Zone (SEZ) of Rason, the location for the two port cities of Rajin and Sonbong, economic development is moving forward as Chinese businesses have invested in the establishment of businesses and infrastructure, especially since 2009. That year, for example, the Chinese Chuangli Group invested $3.8 million in the renovation of Rajin’s Pier No. 1, which is part of a North Korean lease to China. Chinese reporters visited in December 2010, both plugging business and asserting that there was room for further growth. Also, in anticipation of the North Korean leadership transition, China has made significant investment efforts in exchange for stability guarantees from Pyongyang. An example is the Yanbian Tianyu International Trade Company, who quadrupled the size of a bazaar market as part of this policy. Huanqiu Shibao reporter Cheng Gang again travelled to the zone in early March 2012 to drum up Chinese interest in the zone and to affirm that the DPRK had not entirely closed down to the outside after Kim Jong Il’s death.

罗先的朝鲜特别经济开发区内有两个港口城市，雄基和罗津，自从2009年以来随着中国的投资，经济有了发展。中国大连创立集团在那一年投资了三百八十万整修罗津的作为朝鲜向中国租借一部分的一号码头。中国记者在2010年12月访问了当地，看是否有发展的空间。另外为了从平壤得到权力平稳过渡的保证，中国后来投了不少钱。例子之一就是延边天宇国际贸易有限公司把一个商品市场扩大了四倍。《环球时报》的记者成钢在2012年3月又去了特区，鼓吹中国的利益及证明朝鲜在金二挂了以后没有完全与外界隔绝。

Western observers are very familiar with the formula for China’s economic involvement in Rason; in essence, it is not entirely different from China’s investments in Africa. What makes Rason particularly significant, however, are the questions being raised regarding China’s naval ambitions in the zone. China proclaims that its regional maritime policies are peacefully aimed at securing its trade, particularly in terms of energy. However, considering China’s naval ambitions in the Indian Ocean, South China Sea, and East China Sea, the question arises whether China is solely trying to protect its trade routes or if there is a Mahanian agenda to secure command of the sea? And how does this tie in with China’s ambitions for North Korea’s Rason?

西方观察家对中国在罗先的经济投资方式是不会感到陌生的，和中国在非洲的投资方式相似。但是因为中国海军可能介入此一地区，让其和其他地区不同。        中国声称她的地区海上政策是和平保护海上商业通道，尤其是能源通道，但考虑到中国在印度洋，南中国海，中国东海的野心，让人怀疑中国就仅仅是保护贸易通道，还是学习马汉，要控制大洋？而且这和中国在罗先的野心有何关系？

China looks seawards |The world is witnessing an expansion of the Chinese navy. Robert D. Kaplan explains that China’s expanding maritime orientation is a luxury. Traditionally a land power, today China’s land borders are no longer under threat and the nation can therefore afford to look seaward.[i] Also, China’s rapid economic growth ties in with an increasing energy demand. For the import of oil and natural gas, China is highly dependent on the sea lanes of communication from the Indian Ocean through the Malacca Strait to the South China Sea. Along this route China is forming the ‘String of Pearls’ through the establishment of bases by gaining access to ports and airfields, special diplomatic relationships with littoral countries and modernised military forces. Thus, for its energy security it now has become necessary for China to get involved at sea, but the development of the ‘String of Pearls’ make analysts question whether Beijing will soon move away from its proclaimed peaceful foreign policy towards a military agenda.[ii]

世界正在目睹中国海军的扩张。Robert D. Kaplan说中国的海洋目标是奢侈品。向来作为大陆力量，今天中国因为已经不存在陆上的威胁，能够有海上的目标。中国的快速的经济增长需要更多的能源，为了进口那些油气资源，中国非常依赖从印度洋来，经过马六甲海峡和南中国海的航道，尽管中国已经搞了一个“珍珠线”，和海岸国家建立特殊关系，能够使用不同的港口和机场，现代化军队。对中国来说，保护能源安全就必须有海洋存在，但是“珍珠线”让人怀疑中国是否要放弃和平方法而倾向武力解决。

Furthermore, China’s interests regarding Taiwan and several maritime territorial disputes in the South China Sea highlight its geopolitical relation to the sea. Chains of islands in the South China Sea and East China Sea, including Taiwan, geographically shield China from the east. To regain control of Taiwan and win the territorial disputes is vital in order to gain access to the Pacific. Concurrently, the PLA Navy is growing in strength and we view that China has been pursuing its blue water aspirations, illustrated by the construction of the first PLA Navy aircraft carrier in 2011.

进一步讲，中国和台湾的关系和南中国海的争端突出了中国在海上的地缘政治关系。南中国海和中国东海岛链，包括台湾，地理上保护了中国的东方。要进入太平洋就要控制台湾及赢得领土纠纷。目前解放军海军正在发展，我们认为中国在追求蓝海战略，2011年的第一艘航母就是例子。

Rason’s Development since 2009 |Since 2009 there has been significant Chinese interest in one of North Korea’s most rapidly evolving special economic zones, Rason. Rason was established as an SEZ in 1991 to allow capitalist trading market and attract foreign businesses and investors. But it has only been since 2009, when the Chinese began the Changjitu Plan (abbreviation for Changchun-Jilin-Tumen), that Rason has experienced unprecedented development. A reluctance to commit to the SEZ on behalf of the North Korean administration, due to fears for an uncontrollable spill-over of the economic reforms, explains why it has taken this long to witness tangible development in Rason. Andray Abrahamian has continuously set out why we should direct our attention to Rason in order to explore China’s activities and ambitions in the zone and in order to keep track of North Korean domestic economic change. Chinese investments, businesses and work force are flowing to Rason. Of particular significance is the construction, paid for by the Chinese, of a paved highway connecting Rason with the Chinese border city of Wonjong.[iii]

自从2009年，中国对朝鲜的快速发展的经济特区就非常感兴趣，罗先是在1991年成为特区的，允许资本主义的交易市场和外国投资。但直到2009年中国开始长吉图计划（长春—吉林—图们），罗先才快速发展。朝鲜方面一直不愿正式承认特区，因为害怕不可控的经济改革后果，解释了为神马罗先花了如此长的时间才开始发展。Andray Abrahamian一直说我们要关注罗先，这样才能了解中国在这一地区的动作和野心，以及朝鲜国内的经济变化。罗先地区有很多中国的投资，和劳工。特别值得一提的是建筑工程，中国自己出钱修了一条从罗先到中国的高速公路。

Why does China care about Rason? |China invests in Rason because of the geopolitical opportunities and challenges that rise from the zone. Under the Changjitu plan, Rason comes into play, as the economic development in North Korea enhances the prosperity of China’s Jilin province. Moreover, economic growth in North Korea is, in itself, already beneficial to China. The Special Economic Zone enhances domestic economic stability in the DPRK. Such stability is crucial for preventing a collapse of the North Korean regime, which would gravely damage China’s political and economic interests. [iv]

中国在罗先投资的原因是地缘政治和地区的挑战。根据长吉图计划，罗先也包括在内，朝鲜的经济发展对中国吉林省有利的。朝鲜本身的发展已经对中国产生了好处。特别经济区能够平稳朝鲜国内局势，这样朝鲜就不至于崩溃，中国的政经利益也就不会受到极大损害。

Regarding China’s naval ambitions, Rason is of great importance to China as the ports provide it with access to the East Sea. Above I pointed out China’s problematic access to the sea in the South China Sea and East China Sea and its consequent search for alternative routes to gain access to the Pacific. In the Northeast region China has no coast, as it is landlocked by Russian and North Korean territory. Thus the access to the East Sea greatly enhances China’s naval possibilities in the Pacific.

就中国海军的野心来看，罗先作为港口能为中国海军提供进入东海（这里的东海是指日本海，这是南棒的叫法，北棒管日本海叫朝鲜东海）的通道。之前我描述过中国海军在南中国海和中国东海的麻烦，和中国对进入太平洋的通道的不懈努力。中国东北地区没有海岸（作者的意思应该不是我们意义上的东北），俄罗斯和朝鲜的土地构成了封锁。这样的话取得进入东海（日本海）的通道，就能让中国海军极大的增强去太平洋的可能性。

At the moment China uses the renovated port in Rajin, which primarily allows the transportation of coal from Jilin province to other Chinese coastal cities, such as Shanghai. In regards of Chinese military activity in Rason, in January 2011 it had been reported that Chinese troops have been stationed in Rason, said to protect the facilities and Chinese residents. These were the first Chinese troops to be stationed in North Korea since their withdrawal from the DMZ town of Panmunjeom. Furthermore, in August 2011 a Chinese flotilla consisting of two PLA Navy exercise warships visited the North Korean east coast port city of Wonsan. Such a visit was the first of its kind since 15 years and it was said to mark the cooperative relations between the Chinese and North Korean navies.

目前中国正在使用罗津整修过的码头，主要是用来把吉林产的煤矿运往其他中国港口，例如上海。就中国在罗先的军事存在来说，2011年1月有报告说中国军队有进驻罗先，保护中国在那里的投资和公民。这是自从中国从非军事区板门店撤出以来第一次在朝鲜驻军。进一步，2011年8月两艘中国训练舰组成的小舰队访问了朝鲜的元山。这是十五年来首次此类访问，据说是中朝海军合作的象征。

Mahan Over East Asia |China’s recent turn to the sea has left analysts with much fodder for speculation about a Chinese Mahanian maritime policy to gain command of the sea. Whether China is focusing on economic development in Rason just for trade purposes or for eventual military aims is hard to conclude. Nevertheless, it is obvious that geopolitically Rason is very important to the Chinese, as it allows the PRC access to the Pacific. We should continue to monitor this area for further developments.

中国近来对海洋的注意让很多分析家胡猜中国有一个根据于马汉理论的海洋控制政策。中国在罗先是为了商贸还是最终有军事目的现在很难讲。但不管怎么说，从地缘政治上来说罗先对中国很重要，此地让中国能够进入太平洋。我们会持续关注这一地区的。