(原创翻译)路透社：中国实力增长，台湾已经落后

As China's might grows, Taiwan falls behind
Imminent US arms deal won't be enough to affect shift in balance of power

随着中国实力增长，台湾已经落后
即将发生的美国军火交易，没有足够的影响力来改变力量平衡

REUTERS

BEIJING/TAIPEI — China's growing military strength, from stealth jets to aircraft carriers and anti-satellite missiles, has shifted the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait to Beijing's advantage, and this will not be materially affected by an imminent U.S. arms deal with Taiwan.

北京/台北 -- 中国大陆日益增长的军事实力，从隐形飞机到航空母舰再到反卫星导弹，已经改变了台湾海峡的力量平衡。北京取得了优势，这种优势不会因为即将发生的美台军火交易而受到实质性影响。

The duration of any potential conflict between China and Taiwan will be a matter of days, not weeks or months, analysts and experts say.

分析师和专家说，中国大陆和台湾之间任何潜在的冲突，持续时间都将是几天内的事，而不是几周或几个月。

The Obama administration is expected to notify formally Congress next week on an arms package including F-16 upgrades for the self-ruled island China claims as its own, but not the new fighters Taipei wanted.

预计奥巴马政府将在下周正式通知国会，为这个中国宣称拥有主权的自治岛屿提供的一揽子军火交易内容，包括F-16战斗机的升级，而不是台北希望的新飞机。

Beijing, meanwhile, has shown no sign of ending an arms build-up that is strategically focused on Taiwan, and analysts say the arms deal will do little to alter the balance.

与此同时，北京没有显示出结束一次战略上针对台湾的军备集结行动的迹象，分析师说，这次军火交易将无助于改变平衡。

China's military advances have continued despite a warming of ties across the narrow Taiwan Strait that followed the election of Ma Ying-jeou as president of the democratic island in 2008, and his signing of landmark trade and economic pacts.

自从2008年马英九当选台湾总统、并签署具有里程碑意义的贸易和经济协定以后，狭窄的台湾海峡两岸关系虽然正在回暖，但是中国的军事发展仍然继续。

Taiwan's military can do little to disguise its unease.

台湾军方难以掩饰它的不安。

"There have also been no signs of adjustments to military deployments facing our country," Taiwan Defense Minister Kao Hua-chu wrote in July in the foreword to its annual white paper.

“仍然没有迹象表明，军事部署调整是针对我国。”台湾国防部长高华柱在七月发表的年度白皮书前言中写道。

"We must build forces that are as impregnable as a rock."

“我们必须建立坚如磐石的力量。”

The Defense Department's annual assessment to Congress last month warned that China "remains focused on developing the pre-requisite military capabilities to eventually settle the dispute on Beijing's terms."

上个月，国防部发给国会的年度考核报告警告说，中国“仍然重点发展必要的军事能力，以最终按照北京的条件解决争端。”

Taiwan once held the military edge against a backward Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA). Today, experts generally agree that in the event of conflict, Taiwan would have at most only a few days to hold off China and get help from outside, most likely the United States, if they were to stand any chance.

台湾曾经在面对落后的中国人民解放军时，具有军事优势。今天，专家们普遍认为，在发生的冲突中，如果台湾希望抓住机会，那么台湾最多只能在几天的时间里抵挡中国，并获得外界（最有可能是美国）的帮助。

"No one's really asking the question, could Taiwan beat China in an all-out conflict," said Matt Durnin, a researcher with the World Security Institute.

“没有人真的问过这个问题：台湾能够在竭尽全力的冲突中击败中国吗？”世界安全研究所研究员马特·德宁说。

"The question they're asking is whether or not Taiwan could survive long enough in a conflict it would be able to recruit other countries to support it politically or militarily."

“他们问的问题是，在冲突中，台湾是否能够生存足够长的时间，以获得其他国家在政治上或军事上对它的支持。”

Focused on Taiwan

聚焦台湾

China has not compromised on its long-term demand that Taiwan is sovereign Chinese territory and must eventually come under its control.

中国并没有对其长期的要求做出让步：台湾是中国拥有主权的领土，最终必须回归中国的控制。

Beijing's military strategy, despite the warming of ties, remains focused on securing Taiwan, wrote security analyst Dean Cheng of the Heritage Foundation in Washington.

华盛顿传统基金会的安全分析师成斌说，尽管两岸关系回暖，北京的军事战略仍侧重于保卫台湾。

"Coupled with limitations on U.S. weapons sales, Taiwan is falling behind," Cheng said. "Worse, the steady modernization of the PLA has not been matched by Taiwan."

“再加上美国武器销售的限制，台湾正在落后。”成斌说。“更糟糕的是，解放军的稳步发展和现代化，台湾无法相提并论。”

Taiwan in the past was able to rely on China's inability to project power across the strait which separates them, its own technological superiority and the help of the U.S. armed forces in the event of conflict, who would easily outclass China.

过去，中国无法将武力投送到分割大陆和台湾的海峡对面。台湾依赖于这一点，还有其自身的技术优势和美国军队在冲突中提供的帮助，可以轻而易举地压制中国。

"China's increasingly modern weapons and platforms threaten to negate many of those factors upon which Taiwan has depended," the Pentagon said, pointing to China's rapidly modernizing navy and air force and new, formidable ballistic missiles.

“中国日益现代化的武器和平台的威胁，正在抵消台湾所仰仗的许多此类因素。”五角大楼说。这里指的是中国飞速现代化的海军和空军，还有强大的新型弹道导弹。

Unlike China, Taiwan has no nuclear weapons, and only a small number of Patriot missiles to defend against any missile attack.

与中国不同，台湾没有核武器，只有能够抵御任何导弹攻击的少量“爱国者”导弹。

Meanwhile, China's military spending spree continues. Beijing in March said it would boost defense spending by 12.7 percent in 2011 to 600 billion yuan ($94 billion), marking a return to double-digit growth.

与此同时，中国军费开支继续猛增。今年三月，北京宣布，将在2011年把国防开支增加12.7％，达到6000亿人民币（940亿美元），这标志着增长率回归两位数。

China downplays its spending, saying it is upgrading its outmoded forces and that its plans do not pose a threat to any country. It also notes its defense budget is far lower than that of the United States.

中国淡化了这些开支，声称是为了升级过时的武器，并说其计划对任何国家均不构成威胁。它还指出，其国防预算是远远低于美国。

But President Hu Jintao has made modernizing the navy a priority. China is upgrading its destroyers and frigates to provide capability to sail further and strike harder, and is developing fearsome anti-ship ballistic missiles to take out U.S. carriers.

但胡主席已经优先使海军现代化。中国正在升级其驱逐舰和护卫舰，以获得更远的航程和更强的攻击力，并且正在开发恐怖的反舰弹道导弹，用于消灭美国航母。

Last month, China's first aircraft carrier made its maiden run.

上个月，中国的第一艘航空母舰进行了处女航。

Taiwan, which for years relied on better equipment and better training, has been hobbled by the refusal of any country aside from the United States to sell it weapons, fearing an angry response from China. The advantages it once maintained in the air slipped away over the past decade as China modernized.

多年来一直依靠装备和训练占有优势的台湾，由于除了美国以外的任何国家都拒绝向它出售武器，而变得步履艰难。这些国家担心中国的愤怒反应。随着中国的现代化，台湾曾经保持的空中优势，已经在过去十年间化为乌有。

Despite Taiwan's public calls for weaponry, defense spending has not kept pace. The NT$300 billion ($10 billion) earmarked for this year is just 2.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Ma had promised in his 2008 election campaign to raise that to 3 percent.

尽管台湾公众要求获得武器，国防开支却没有跟上。今年被指定用于国防的3000亿元新台币（100亿美元），只是国内生产总值（GDP）的2.2%。马英九曾经在2008年竞选时承诺，要将这个比例提高到3%。

Aging fighters

老化的战机

The aging of Taiwan's fleet of fighters came into stark focus this week with the crash of two U.S.-built F-5 fighters, which it first put into service in the 1970s and still uses for training and reconnaissance missions.

随着两架美制F-5战斗机坠毁，台湾战斗机机队老化问题已经在本周成为无法掩饰的焦点。这种飞机在1970年代首次服役，目前仍然用于训练和侦察任务。

The backbone of Taiwan's air force is made up of some 140 U.S.-made F-16s, about 60 French-built Mirage 2000s and about 130 Ching-kuo Indigenous Defense Fighters. Jets lost in accidents over the years are nearly impossible to replace.

台湾空军的主力，由大约140架美制F-16、大约60架法制幻影2000和大约130架“经国号”本土防御战斗机（IDF）组成。多年来因为事故而损失飞机几乎是不可避免的。

This has spurred Taiwan's requests that the United States sell it 66 new F-16 C/D jets, a more advanced version of the ones they already operate.

这促使台湾要求美国出售66架新型F-16C/D喷气式战斗机，这是比他们已有的飞机更加高级的版本。

The Taiwan-U.S. Business Council, which had lobbied for the sale of advanced weapons, said on Friday Obama had instead approved an upgrade for the existing fleet.

游说出售先进武器的台湾-美国商务理事会上周五称，奥巴马已经改变意见，同意升级台湾现有的机队。

Without new jets, experts say, Taiwan would not last long in a conflict.

专家说，没有新型飞机，台湾在冲突中不会坚持太久。

Training is the air force's strong suit, but experts say that a well-planned early Chinese missile strike could take out most Taiwan air base runways and leave the island's aircraft, hidden in fortified or mountain bunkers, trapped on the ground.

训练是台湾空军的强项，但是专家说，中国导弹处心积虑的提前攻击，可以摧毁台湾大多数空军基地的跑道，并导致台湾的飞机，包括那些隐藏在加固掩体或山间工事中的飞机，被困在地面上。

If the air force is old, Taiwan's navy makes it look like a paragon of modernity. It has four submarines — two of which date from World War Two and still have some of their original brass fittings — compared with more than 30 for China, including a few of which are nuclear powered.

如果空军装备陈旧，台湾海军使它看起来像一个现代性的典型。它有四艘潜艇 -- 其中两艘建造于二战时期，它们仍然保留着一些原装的黄铜零件 -- 相比之下，中国大陆的潜艇有30艘以上，包括一些核动力潜艇。
As China's might grows, Taiwan falls behind
Imminent US arms deal won't be enough to affect shift in balance of power

随着中国实力增长，台湾已经落后
即将发生的美国军火交易，没有足够的影响力来改变力量平衡

REUTERS

BEIJING/TAIPEI — China's growing military strength, from stealth jets to aircraft carriers and anti-satellite missiles, has shifted the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait to Beijing's advantage, and this will not be materially affected by an imminent U.S. arms deal with Taiwan.

北京/台北 -- 中国大陆日益增长的军事实力，从隐形飞机到航空母舰再到反卫星导弹，已经改变了台湾海峡的力量平衡。北京取得了优势，这种优势不会因为即将发生的美台军火交易而受到实质性影响。

The duration of any potential conflict between China and Taiwan will be a matter of days, not weeks or months, analysts and experts say.

分析师和专家说，中国大陆和台湾之间任何潜在的冲突，持续时间都将是几天内的事，而不是几周或几个月。

The Obama administration is expected to notify formally Congress next week on an arms package including F-16 upgrades for the self-ruled island China claims as its own, but not the new fighters Taipei wanted.

预计奥巴马政府将在下周正式通知国会，为这个中国宣称拥有主权的自治岛屿提供的一揽子军火交易内容，包括F-16战斗机的升级，而不是台北希望的新飞机。

Beijing, meanwhile, has shown no sign of ending an arms build-up that is strategically focused on Taiwan, and analysts say the arms deal will do little to alter the balance.

与此同时，北京没有显示出结束一次战略上针对台湾的军备集结行动的迹象，分析师说，这次军火交易将无助于改变平衡。

China's military advances have continued despite a warming of ties across the narrow Taiwan Strait that followed the election of Ma Ying-jeou as president of the democratic island in 2008, and his signing of landmark trade and economic pacts.

自从2008年马英九当选台湾总统、并签署具有里程碑意义的贸易和经济协定以后，狭窄的台湾海峡两岸关系虽然正在回暖，但是中国的军事发展仍然继续。

Taiwan's military can do little to disguise its unease.

台湾军方难以掩饰它的不安。

"There have also been no signs of adjustments to military deployments facing our country," Taiwan Defense Minister Kao Hua-chu wrote in July in the foreword to its annual white paper.

“仍然没有迹象表明，军事部署调整是针对我国。”台湾国防部长高华柱在七月发表的年度白皮书前言中写道。

"We must build forces that are as impregnable as a rock."

“我们必须建立坚如磐石的力量。”

The Defense Department's annual assessment to Congress last month warned that China "remains focused on developing the pre-requisite military capabilities to eventually settle the dispute on Beijing's terms."

上个月，国防部发给国会的年度考核报告警告说，中国“仍然重点发展必要的军事能力，以最终按照北京的条件解决争端。”

Taiwan once held the military edge against a backward Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA). Today, experts generally agree that in the event of conflict, Taiwan would have at most only a few days to hold off China and get help from outside, most likely the United States, if they were to stand any chance.

台湾曾经在面对落后的中国人民解放军时，具有军事优势。今天，专家们普遍认为，在发生的冲突中，如果台湾希望抓住机会，那么台湾最多只能在几天的时间里抵挡中国，并获得外界（最有可能是美国）的帮助。

"No one's really asking the question, could Taiwan beat China in an all-out conflict," said Matt Durnin, a researcher with the World Security Institute.

“没有人真的问过这个问题：台湾能够在竭尽全力的冲突中击败中国吗？”世界安全研究所研究员马特·德宁说。

"The question they're asking is whether or not Taiwan could survive long enough in a conflict it would be able to recruit other countries to support it politically or militarily."

“他们问的问题是，在冲突中，台湾是否能够生存足够长的时间，以获得其他国家在政治上或军事上对它的支持。”

Focused on Taiwan

聚焦台湾

China has not compromised on its long-term demand that Taiwan is sovereign Chinese territory and must eventually come under its control.

中国并没有对其长期的要求做出让步：台湾是中国拥有主权的领土，最终必须回归中国的控制。

Beijing's military strategy, despite the warming of ties, remains focused on securing Taiwan, wrote security analyst Dean Cheng of the Heritage Foundation in Washington.

华盛顿传统基金会的安全分析师成斌说，尽管两岸关系回暖，北京的军事战略仍侧重于保卫台湾。

"Coupled with limitations on U.S. weapons sales, Taiwan is falling behind," Cheng said. "Worse, the steady modernization of the PLA has not been matched by Taiwan."

“再加上美国武器销售的限制，台湾正在落后。”成斌说。“更糟糕的是，解放军的稳步发展和现代化，台湾无法相提并论。”

Taiwan in the past was able to rely on China's inability to project power across the strait which separates them, its own technological superiority and the help of the U.S. armed forces in the event of conflict, who would easily outclass China.

过去，中国无法将武力投送到分割大陆和台湾的海峡对面。台湾依赖于这一点，还有其自身的技术优势和美国军队在冲突中提供的帮助，可以轻而易举地压制中国。

"China's increasingly modern weapons and platforms threaten to negate many of those factors upon which Taiwan has depended," the Pentagon said, pointing to China's rapidly modernizing navy and air force and new, formidable ballistic missiles.

“中国日益现代化的武器和平台的威胁，正在抵消台湾所仰仗的许多此类因素。”五角大楼说。这里指的是中国飞速现代化的海军和空军，还有强大的新型弹道导弹。

Unlike China, Taiwan has no nuclear weapons, and only a small number of Patriot missiles to defend against any missile attack.

与中国不同，台湾没有核武器，只有能够抵御任何导弹攻击的少量“爱国者”导弹。

Meanwhile, China's military spending spree continues. Beijing in March said it would boost defense spending by 12.7 percent in 2011 to 600 billion yuan ($94 billion), marking a return to double-digit growth.

与此同时，中国军费开支继续猛增。今年三月，北京宣布，将在2011年把国防开支增加12.7％，达到6000亿人民币（940亿美元），这标志着增长率回归两位数。

China downplays its spending, saying it is upgrading its outmoded forces and that its plans do not pose a threat to any country. It also notes its defense budget is far lower than that of the United States.

中国淡化了这些开支，声称是为了升级过时的武器，并说其计划对任何国家均不构成威胁。它还指出，其国防预算是远远低于美国。

But President Hu Jintao has made modernizing the navy a priority. China is upgrading its destroyers and frigates to provide capability to sail further and strike harder, and is developing fearsome anti-ship ballistic missiles to take out U.S. carriers.

但胡主席已经优先使海军现代化。中国正在升级其驱逐舰和护卫舰，以获得更远的航程和更强的攻击力，并且正在开发恐怖的反舰弹道导弹，用于消灭美国航母。

Last month, China's first aircraft carrier made its maiden run.

上个月，中国的第一艘航空母舰进行了处女航。

Taiwan, which for years relied on better equipment and better training, has been hobbled by the refusal of any country aside from the United States to sell it weapons, fearing an angry response from China. The advantages it once maintained in the air slipped away over the past decade as China modernized.

多年来一直依靠装备和训练占有优势的台湾，由于除了美国以外的任何国家都拒绝向它出售武器，而变得步履艰难。这些国家担心中国的愤怒反应。随着中国的现代化，台湾曾经保持的空中优势，已经在过去十年间化为乌有。

Despite Taiwan's public calls for weaponry, defense spending has not kept pace. The NT$300 billion ($10 billion) earmarked for this year is just 2.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Ma had promised in his 2008 election campaign to raise that to 3 percent.

尽管台湾公众要求获得武器，国防开支却没有跟上。今年被指定用于国防的3000亿元新台币（100亿美元），只是国内生产总值（GDP）的2.2%。马英九曾经在2008年竞选时承诺，要将这个比例提高到3%。

Aging fighters

老化的战机

The aging of Taiwan's fleet of fighters came into stark focus this week with the crash of two U.S.-built F-5 fighters, which it first put into service in the 1970s and still uses for training and reconnaissance missions.

随着两架美制F-5战斗机坠毁，台湾战斗机机队老化问题已经在本周成为无法掩饰的焦点。这种飞机在1970年代首次服役，目前仍然用于训练和侦察任务。

The backbone of Taiwan's air force is made up of some 140 U.S.-made F-16s, about 60 French-built Mirage 2000s and about 130 Ching-kuo Indigenous Defense Fighters. Jets lost in accidents over the years are nearly impossible to replace.

台湾空军的主力，由大约140架美制F-16、大约60架法制幻影2000和大约130架“经国号”本土防御战斗机（IDF）组成。多年来因为事故而损失飞机几乎是不可避免的。

This has spurred Taiwan's requests that the United States sell it 66 new F-16 C/D jets, a more advanced version of the ones they already operate.

这促使台湾要求美国出售66架新型F-16C/D喷气式战斗机，这是比他们已有的飞机更加高级的版本。

The Taiwan-U.S. Business Council, which had lobbied for the sale of advanced weapons, said on Friday Obama had instead approved an upgrade for the existing fleet.

游说出售先进武器的台湾-美国商务理事会上周五称，奥巴马已经改变意见，同意升级台湾现有的机队。

Without new jets, experts say, Taiwan would not last long in a conflict.

专家说，没有新型飞机，台湾在冲突中不会坚持太久。

Training is the air force's strong suit, but experts say that a well-planned early Chinese missile strike could take out most Taiwan air base runways and leave the island's aircraft, hidden in fortified or mountain bunkers, trapped on the ground.

训练是台湾空军的强项，但是专家说，中国导弹处心积虑的提前攻击，可以摧毁台湾大多数空军基地的跑道，并导致台湾的飞机，包括那些隐藏在加固掩体或山间工事中的飞机，被困在地面上。

If the air force is old, Taiwan's navy makes it look like a paragon of modernity. It has four submarines — two of which date from World War Two and still have some of their original brass fittings — compared with more than 30 for China, including a few of which are nuclear powered.

如果空军装备陈旧，台湾海军使它看起来像一个现代性的典型。它有四艘潜艇 -- 其中两艘建造于二战时期，它们仍然保留着一些原装的黄铜零件 -- 相比之下，中国大陆的潜艇有30艘以上，包括一些核动力潜艇。