原创翻译：《经济学人》警告中国经济过热-超级军网

<place wst="on"><country-region wst="on">China</country-region></place>Struggling to keep the lid onApr 27th 2006|BeijingFrom the economist print editionThe economy just grows and grows

Just when many were predicting a gentle easing of <country-region wst="on"><place wst="on">China</place></country-region>’s economic growth this year, figures for the first quarter suggest the opposite. Driven by a surge of investment and easy credit, the economy grew by 10.2% year-on-year, even faster than last year’s annual rate of 9.9%. Now officials fret that it is close to overheating. On April 27th, the central bank raised interest rates for the first time in 18 months, by 0.27%, and announced “guidelines” to control lending to a dozen industries. As The Economist went to press the details of these were not clear, but there was speculation that further measures would be forthcoming in the near future.  把盖子摁住中国经济涨个不停 正当许多人预测中国经济增长今年有望平稳的减缓时，第一季度的经济指数却给了我们一个相反的结果。在投资骤增和贷款放松的驱动之下，第一季度经济比去年同期增长10.2%, 甚至超过了去年全年9.9%的增幅。现在（中国的）官员们开始担心经济增长快要过热了。<chsdate wst="on" isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="27" year="2006">4月27日</chsdate>，央行将利率上调了0.27%－这是18个月来首次上调利率－并且宣布了对一部份工业领域投资进行控制的指导方针。截至《经济学人》发稿时，详细地事态还不明朗，但是，此间纷纷猜测很快就会有近一步的措施出台。

[此贴子已经被作者于2006-5-4 22:42:39编辑过]

<place wst="on"><country-region wst="on">China</country-region></place>Struggling to keep the lid onApr 27th 2006|BeijingFrom the economist print editionThe economy just grows and grows

Just when many were predicting a gentle easing of <country-region wst="on"><place wst="on">China</place></country-region>’s economic growth this year, figures for the first quarter suggest the opposite. Driven by a surge of investment and easy credit, the economy grew by 10.2% year-on-year, even faster than last year’s annual rate of 9.9%. Now officials fret that it is close to overheating. On April 27th, the central bank raised interest rates for the first time in 18 months, by 0.27%, and announced “guidelines” to control lending to a dozen industries. As The Economist went to press the details of these were not clear, but there was speculation that further measures would be forthcoming in the near future.  把盖子摁住中国经济涨个不停 正当许多人预测中国经济增长今年有望平稳的减缓时，第一季度的经济指数却给了我们一个相反的结果。在投资骤增和贷款放松的驱动之下，第一季度经济比去年同期增长10.2%, 甚至超过了去年全年9.9%的增幅。现在（中国的）官员们开始担心经济增长快要过热了。<chsdate wst="on" isrocdate="False" islunardate="False" day="27" year="2006">4月27日</chsdate>，央行将利率上调了0.27%－这是18个月来首次上调利率－并且宣布了对一部份工业领域投资进行控制的指导方针。截至《经济学人》发稿时，详细地事态还不明朗，但是，此间纷纷猜测很快就会有近一步的措施出台。
[此贴子已经被作者于2006-5-4 22:42:39编辑过]

[此贴子已经被作者于2006-5-5 8:41:01编辑过]

[此贴子已经被作者于2006-5-4 22:32:40编辑过]

<country-region wst="on"><place wst="on">China</place></country-region>’s exchange rate policy is part of the problem. In recent months the country has been awash with cash. The trade surplus leads to large inflows of foreign currency, which is bought up by the central bank in order to hold down the exchange rate. But this boosts the supply of yuan deposited in banks.  中国的汇率政策是导致问题的一个原因。最近几个月大量资金涌入中国。贸易顺差导致了大量外币的流入，而所有这些外币都被央行买入以使汇率控制在低水平。但这也增加了银行的人民币准备金供应量。 The central bank usually curbs this money-supply growth by borrowing back much of the excess yuan. But Stephen Green of Standard Chartered Bank says that, for a few month in the middle of last year, it relax the efforts to offset the potential impact of an upward revaluation of the yuan in July. The result was a surge of cheap credit. This will inevitably mean bad news for the banks when some of those loans eventually turned bad. In the first quarter, industrial profits rose by 21.3%, but losses by 32.3%. With huge oversupply in some industries, and big rises in raw-materials costs, many manufacturers are having to endure wafer-thin margins.  央行往往通过借回这些过剩的人民币的方法来抑制这一货币供应增长。但是渣打银行的Stephen Green认为，去年中期的几个月，央行曾经放松对去年7月以来高涨的人民币汇率重估呼声的平抑。其结果就是低息贷款的大幅增长。当这其中的一些贷款最终变成坏账的时候，这对无疑就成了银行的坏消息。第一季度，工业盈利增长了21.3%，但收益率却下降了32.3%。随着一些工业领域的生产大量过剩，以及原材料成本的骤增，很多生产商都不得不忍受边际收益的大缩水。 Although efforts to rein in the money supply resumed in October, investment grow rapidly as local governments, heedless of central efforts to tame the economy, raced to boot local growth rates. This was encouraged by the launch this year of their new five-year economic plans, traditionally a time to starting big new projects. Many local five-year plans project double-digit annual growth rates, even though the central government is aiming for a modest average of 7.5% until 2010.  <span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">虽然对货币供应量的限制在十月份重新启动，但地方政府不顾中央抑制经济过热的努力，继续争着提高经济增长，使得投资急速增加。这一情况受到了今年开始新的五年规划的激励，传统上五年计划开始意味着重大项目的上马。虽然，中央政府将到<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">2010<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">年的平均增长率目标定在适度的<span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">7.5%<span style="FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">，许多地方政府的五年规划却都有两位数的年增长率。

[此贴子已经被作者于2006-5-4 22:37:02编辑过]

译者声明：以上内容转贴请注明出处为超大。楼主翻译此文发在这里是为感兴趣的朋友们提供参考。并不表示对其任何内容的赞同或者反对。上文所有图片内容出自2006年4月29日出版的《economist》杂志，英文部分及所有图片版权均为《economist》所有。入有内容让您感到不快，楼主在此表示遗憾。再说几句废话。我知道，这样的文章现在在超大已经不怎么召人待见。不过，只要还有人愿意看，我就会继续翻。中国经济现在很热门，坛子上也不乏为此吵成一片的。还是希望各位各位动嘴喷唾沫之前多看看数据、做做理性的分析。最后，热切盼望有朋友对此文中的内容发表看法。tulipe[em27]

"数据的回复使得我们很难进行与更早数据的比较"(data reversions make earlier comparisons difficult). 指的应该是去年经济普查后调整经济数据，reversion疑为revision之误。仅从速度上看，的确是有点偏高，但其他的大部分指标都比较正常，企业利润水平也不错。经济增长快一点，可以带动就业和消化前两年一些行业形成的过剩产能。所以分析来分析去，除了稍微紧一下货币之外，没有什么大调整可做。我比较赞成厉以宁早些年的一个观点，中国经济是宁热勿冷，89-92和98-00年间的经济紧缩期，大家日子都很难过。

<div class="quote">以下是引用agora在2006-5-5 0:24:00的发言： "数据的回复使得我们很难进行与更早数据的比较"(data reversions make earlier comparisons difficult). 指的应该是去年经济普查后调整经济数据，reversion疑为revision之误。仅从速度上看，的确是有点偏高，但其他的大部分指标都比较正常，企业利润水平也不错。经济增长快一点，可以带动就业和消化前两年一些行业形成的过剩产能。所以分析来分析去，除了稍微紧一下货币之外，没有什么大调整可做。我比较赞成厉以宁早些年的一个观点，中国经济是宁热勿冷，89-92和98-00年间的经济紧缩期，大家日子都很难过。</div>多谢兄弟指正。我又查了一下确实是rivision。这就去改过来^_^

接agora兄的论题。我也认为中国经济需要保持长期的较高增长速度。但我也觉得国外对我国经济发展方式提出的质疑也具有一定的参考价值。我国的经济发展效率确实急需改善。一方面，国有金融机构效率低下。虽然现在看来对经济影响不大，但那是现在的高投入增长方式掩盖了问题。长此下去，是一大隐患。而由于现在大家都习惯于愈来愈高的原材料成本投入和越来越低的价格与毛利率，这种被美国人戏称为“Growth on the oil”的增长，其实是与我们可持续发展的提法相违背的。文中提出的地方政府与全局利益的南辕北辙，其背后反映的经济结构和政治问题确实存在。还有资源浪费型的发展方式，前一段时间吴敬琏教授也在提，我们国家各方面的资源都过于便宜，这种鼓励经济的初衷却导致极大的浪费——不只是原材料还包括人力成本。以后势必影响经济发展的后劲。这一点我们需要反思。

支持!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!在中国最鬼刁的是:各阶层的利益,已何种方式协调![em01][em01][em01][em01][em01]

经济发展过热,可能导致通货膨胀???

翻的很好啊         

<div class="quote">以下是引用waruh在2006-5-5 10:10:00的发言： 经济发展过热,可能导致通货膨胀???</div>有这种危险，但还不那么简单。我觉得，现在的发展方式使很多企业和地方政府在享受高增长带来的收益时没有充分的面对能源价格高企、原材料和生产、生活成本骤增带来的负面压力。使得中央政府推行的可持续发展政策在地方和企业内缺乏经济上的动力。事实是我们经济发展的成本收益率是在降低，而且我们消耗的是不可再生资源、社会公共产品资源和社会信用资源这样的成本。这样的一路飘红的高发展太危险了。以经济高增长保持社会稳定是短期的需要，也是一种权宜之计，我们现在在发展的十字路口上，着手转变，推进经济长效发展的措施还来得及。还有，文中提到的“五年规划政治学”问题，虽说是市场经济，但我们的经济发展的宏观面还受到各级政府的“经济为政治服务”的影响。说白了，高增长给大多数老百姓带来的收益并不明显，相反还有被高企的物价抵消和提高百姓未来风险的问题。鼓励各级官员拿国家和人民的福祉换官位换宝马的政府用人机制也要改一改了。

需要提高的是效率，哪怕降低一点绝对速度，也要提高效率。否则资源浪费太厉害了。还不是个理性社会啊

冷一下是必要的．

[此贴子已经被作者于2006-5-6 9:37:48编辑过]