转载：经济学人：小丑一样的中国

The China Superpower Hoax
【原文地址】：http://www.huffingtonpost.com/st ... -hoax_b_821136.html
【发布日期】：2-11-2011
【翻译截止日期】：2011-02-12 06:50:13
【翻译评论数/总评论】：NA / 28
【翻译作者】：laluna1987
【联名作者】：

　　译文导读：很长 评论部分长篇大论 没有完全翻完 大概也就那样吧

文章有些说得有道理 有些完全让人吐血 习惯就好 China must have the best public relations maestros in the world. How else would a country with a lower per capita income than Iran, Mexico and Kazakhstan, one of the worst environmental records of any major nation, endemic corruption, jails stuffed with dissenters, and a dictatorship, besides, be hailed by so many as the next global superpower?

中国无疑是世界上最好的外交大师。要不然这样一个人均收入低过伊朗，墨西哥和哈萨克斯坦，环境记录差过世界上任何一个主流国家，横行无忌的腐败，监狱里塞满不同政见者，和专政的国家，为什么会被这么多人认为是下一个超级大国呢？

Certainly China is big -- 1.3 billion people big, a fifth of the global population. As Forbes' columnist John Lee has written, China has long been the place for the world's biggest anything: the Great Wall, the 2008 Olympics, Tiananmen Square, the South China Mall in Dongguan, dams, consumption of cement and production of automobiles; most recently, China even had the world's biggest traffic jam -- an incredible 60 miles long -- which lasted a month and during which drivers were stuck in their cars for days at a time.

当然，中国很大——13亿人那么大，全世界人口的1/5.就像福布斯专栏作家John Lee所写的那样，中国长久以来就拥有世界上最大的东西：长城，08年奥运会，天安门广场，位于DG的南中国商场，大坝，水泥的消耗量和汽车的生产量；最近，中国甚至出现了世界上最大的交通堵塞——长度是难以置信的60英里——持续一个月，司机曾经一度被困在他们的车里长达几天时间。

The world has never see anything like mega-nations the size of China (or India for that matter), and no one even knows if populations of this magnitude ultimately are sustainable. China's voracious need to supply its population and avoid the social explosions that have plagued its history has made it one of the world's largest consumers of natural resources, especially timber and energy, extracted from places like Africa, Southeast Asia and South America. With such large appetites, China has the ability to drive global markets, and, consequently, has become the new frontier where "get rich quick" investors and Western businesses go panning for gold by speculating in some hot Chinese start-up.

世界从没见过像中国这样庞大的国家（在同样的意义上，印度也是），也没有人会知道这样数量级的人口是否会持续发展。中国想要供给人民，避免历史中长久以来的社会爆炸难题的贪婪需求，已经把她变成一个世界上自然资源最大的消耗者之一，尤其是从非洲，东南亚和南美这样的地方榨取来的木材和能源。有这样大的胃口，中国已经有能力带动世界市场，并且，对于那些“快速致富”的投资者和西方商人来讲，变成了一片新疆域，在此通过投机来淘金。

Unfortunately, the hype ignores a starker reality -- that China is barely holding it together. Contrarian voices like Hu Ping, the chief editor of Beijing Spring, a pro-human rights and democracy journal, try to humanize the conventional wisdom of economic statistics and facts that obscure reality. "With China portrayed in the news every day as an economic and political powerhouse, the rest of the world, at least those parts that treasure freedom and peace, should pay attention to the real China," says Hu.

不幸的是，炒作者忽略了一个严重的现实——就是中国并没有把这些整合在一起。反对的声音如胡平，《北京之春》的主编，一个趋向于支持人权和民主的杂志，试图人性化那些阻碍事实的经济数据。“随着中国每天在新闻里把自己描绘成一个经济和政治的大国，世界上其他国家，至少是那些珍爱自由和和平的国家，应该注意到真实的中国。”

The Paradox of China

中国的矛盾

To understand the "real" China, it is necessary to see it through the double lens of its paradoxical condition as both a major economy and a still-developing country. China is filled with contradictions and serious challenges. When I visited China in August and September of 2008, after the Olympics, the country that I saw, whether in Shanghai, Beijing or the rural areas, was a long, long way from being a global leader in any meaningful sense. Two hundred million people out of a working population of nearly 800 million are migrants, chafing at their lowly status and rotten wages.

为了了解这个“真实”的中国，有必要通过双层镜头看看她既是一个主要经济体，又是一个发展中国家这样自相矛盾的情况。中国充满了矛盾和严重的挑战。当我08年八月和九月在中国旅游时，就在奥运会之后，这个我所看到的国家，不管是在上海还是在北京，还是乡村，在任何意义上都离世界领导者相去甚远。8亿可工作人口中的两亿是移民，忍受着低微的社会地位和少得可怜的工资。

Inequality is rampant. Returning from the rural areas -- where the vast majority of Chinese still live -- to cities is like a form of time travel, moving from feudal conditions where plowing is still done by water buffalo to a land of impressively jutting skyscrapers. Corruption is epidemic, whether in banks, the legal system or the political leadership at national, provincial and local levels, causing an estimated annual economic loss of approximately 15 percent of GDP, according to economist Hu Angang.

不平等横行肆虐。从乡村——大多数中国人仍在那里居住——回到城市就像时光旅行一样，从一个封建的环境，耕种仍然用水牛的地方，到一个摩天大楼鳞次栉比的地方。根据经济学家胡鞍钢，贪污腐败横行肆虐，不管是在银行，在法律系统或者国家，省务还是地方政府部门，导致年经济损失高达15%的GDP。

Even China's much-touted economic power has been misunderstood. Recently it was announced around the world that China had surpassed Japan to become the second-largest national economy. But compared to the United States and Europe, China is still an economic mini-me. Europe's gross domestic product is $17.5 trillion, according to the latest IMF figures, while the U.S. figure is $14.8 trillion and China's is $5.4 trillion (by Europe, I mean the EU 27 plus Norway, Switzerland and Iceland).

甚至中国极力鼓吹的经济能力也被误读了。最近全世界得知，中国已经超越日本成为全世界第二大经济体。但是对比于美国和欧洲，中国仍然是一个经济上的小矮人。根据国际货币基金组织最新的数据显示，欧洲的GDP是17.5万亿美元，美国14.8万亿，中国5.4万亿（我所称的欧洲，是指欧盟27国加上挪威，瑞士和冰岛）。

Beyond economic output, more than three-fifths of China's overall exports and nearly all its high-tech exports are made by non-Chinese, foreign companies. Foreign companies take advantage of low Chinese wages to reprocess imports of semi-manufactured goods that are then shipped to Europe and the U.S. China remains, in essence, a subcontractor to the West, says Will Hutton, British political analyst and author of an influential book on China, "The Writing on the Wall." Despite China's export success, there are few great Chinese brands or companies. China needs to build them, says Hutton, but doing that in a one-party authoritarian state, where the party second-guesses business strategy for ideological and political ends, is impossible."

在经济产出之外，超过3/5的中国出口和几乎所有的高科技出口是靠非中国人，也就是外国公司。外国公司利用低廉的中国工资水平来加工进口半成品，然后源源不断地运到欧洲和美国。中国实质上仍然是西方的承包商，根据Will Hutton，英国政治分析家，也是一本非常有影响力的关于中国的书《墙壁上的文字》的作者。尽管中国出口业的巨大成功，中国知名的商标或者公司仍然屈指可数。中国需要创立这些，Hutton说道，但是在这样一个一党专政的极权国家是不可能的。

Because of China's climate of corruption and authoritarian secrecy, even the volume of industrial output has been questioned. Some doubt China's numbers and official reports. Investment guru James Chanos, who rose to prominence when he predicted the Enron meltdown (and pocketed a billion dollars shorting Enron stock), is shorting China now.

由于中国的腐败和专制保密这样一个大环境，甚至工业的产出也被质疑。有些人怀疑中国的数据和官方报告。投资领袖James Chanos，曾因预言安然集团的崩溃（并且赚足一亿美元做空安然股票）而举世瞩目，现在正在做空中国。

Says Chanos, "China is cooking its books. State-run companies are buying fleets of cars and storing them in parking lots and warehouses" to pump up state-mandated production figures. As evidence of this, experts point out that while car sales have been rising by a huge 20 percent per month, auto fuel usage seems to be rising by only 3-5 percent per month. Chanos also says China is plagued by an ominously growing real estate bubble in high-rise buildings, offices and condos. Much of China's high growth originally came from decades-long heavy investment in infrastructure, but increasingly it has been coming from construction. Chanos estimates that 50 percent to 60 percent of China's GDP now comes from alarming levels of overbuilding, virtually none of which is affordable to the average Chinese. "This is not affordable housing for the middle class; this is high-end condos in major urban areas and high-end office buildings, which no one is buying," says Chanos.

Chanos称，“中国自己炮制数据，国营公司买下成船的汽车，然后把他们存放在停车场或者仓库里”吹高国家要求的生产数据。证据是，专家指出汽车销量增长近20%每月，而汽油用量仅仅增长了3%-5%。Chanos还称中国正在被凶险的日益成长的房地产泡沫所困扰。中国大部分的高增长来源于几十年重金投资基础建设，但是目前正越来越来源于房产建设。Chanos估计中国50%-60%的GDP来源于令人警惕的过热建设，基本上没有哪个是普通中国人消费得起的。“这不是中产阶级可以负担的房子；这些是城市中心区高档的别墅和高档的写字楼，没有人会买，”Chanos说道。

China is on this "treadmill to hell," he says, because so much of its GDP growth comes from construction which can't be sustained. If China were to slow down the construction industry, its GDP growth would go negative very quickly.

中国正在大踏步的跑进地狱，他说，因为大部分GDP增长来自于房产建设，并不能持续发展。如果中国减慢建设工业，她的GDP增长会迅速降为负值。

"That's not going to happen, because in China people are rewarded at almost every level of government for making their economic growth numbers. The easiest way to do that is put up another building. They're really hooked on this sort of heroin of real estate development to keep the numbers going," Chanos says.

“这不可能发生，因为在中国人们为制造他们的经济成长层层受奖。最简单的方法就是再盖一栋楼。他们真的被这种通过房地产发展维持数字增长的海洛因勾住了。”Chanos说。

Sino enthusiasts are betting that China's rulers, whom they see as having been competent stewards of a growing economy for decades, have the means to slowly let the air out of the bubble and avert disaster. But with entire building complexes--urban forests of office and condo high-rises--standing empty in China, Chanos and others are predicting a housing market crash like the one that occurred in the United States.

中国的狂热支持者打赌中国的统治者，令经济成长几十年的人们有方法慢慢让泡沫里的空气泄漏，停止灾难。但是伴着中国城市里空置的丛林一般的写字楼和高级别墅，Chanos和其他人预言中国的房地产市场将像美国一样崩溃。

Walking an Environmental Tightrope Without a Net

行走在没有保护网的环境钢丝上

The only thing cloudier than China's economic model is the sky over its major cities, so choked with smog that some days you can't see the high-rises a few blocks away. During the run-up to the 2008 Olympics in Beijing, many were concerned that athletes wouldn't be able to breathe the foul air. To try to clear the air, the government instituted an odd-even auto policy, i.e. cars with license plates ending in an even number could drive one day, odd numbers the next. People in Beijing told me that the skies had not been so clear in decades (and they were greatly chagrined when the authorities eventually reverted to the previous laissez-faire policy, resulting in unprecedented traffic jams that make India's look tame by comparison).

比中国的经济模型更云山雾罩的是她主要城市的天空，完全被烟雾覆盖，有时你甚至看不清几条街区之外的楼。在北京备战08年奥运会时，很多人担心运动员不能呼吸浑浊的空气。为了试图清洁空气，政府采取了单双号限行措施，比如，车号尾数为偶开一天，为奇数的开另外一天。在北京的人们告诉我几十年来天从没有像这样干净过（当当局最终恢复之前放任不管的政策，导致空前的交通堵塞，相形之下印度看起来都很整洁了，他们大为懊恼）。

Four hundred thousand Chinese die every year of respiratory diseases caused by pollution. About 500 million rural Chinese -- equivalent to the population of the entire European Union -- still do not have access to safe drinking water. Acid rain, caused by sulfur dioxide emissions that belch from smokestacks of power plants, is endemic, with the state-run China Daily reporting that in Guangdong province -- China's most prosperous region, and also its most industrialized -- 53 percent of total rainfall in 2008 was acid rain.

四十万中国人每年死于因污染引起的呼吸系统疾病。大约5亿中国人民——差不多等于整个欧盟的人口——仍没有获取安全饮用水的途径。由于发电站二氧化硫排放引起的酸雨横行，国营的中国日报报道说广东省——中国最繁荣也是工业化程度最深的地区——08年53%的降雨是酸雨。

Food scares, such as industrial toxins mixed into milk powder, pet food and cough syrup, have been frequent, and there have been instances of exported toys bearing lead paint and drywall containing highly toxic sulfur compounds that made brand-new homes in the U.S. and elsewhere unlivable.

食物更是吓人，诸如奶粉里掺杂工业毒素，宠物食品和止咳糖浆层出不穷，而且曾有出口玩具含铅和干墙含剧毒硫化物的先例，使得美国和其他地方的崭新房子无法居住。

These consumer dangers are additional manifestations of the amoral, corrupt, robber-baron business practices that have been unleashed in China. The 2008 earthquakes in western Sichuan province, which resulted in the collapse of more than 7,000 schoolrooms and thousands of deaths among schoolchildren, disproportionately impacted the poor who lived in areas where corruption had resulted in shoddy construction practices. The suicide rate among the elderly in rural areas is four to five times higher than the world average because 90 percent of the elderly have no retirement pension, even as there is a growing shortage of nursing home services, and so many elderly choose to quietly end their lives on a barren hillside or in a forest to avoid being a burden to their children. For all these reasons and more, China is plagued by 70,000 protests per year, many of them more like riots and quite violent (including occasional bombings), and had 300,000 labor disputes in 2006 alone, nearly double the number reported in 2001.

这些对消费者的危险是不道德的，腐败的甚至是强盗行径的商业行为，在中国从未被约束。2008年四川西部的地震导致了7000多学校的倒塌和数以千计的学生死亡，不成比例的冲击了在腐败导致伪劣建筑的地区居住的穷人。乡村老年人的自杀率高出世界平均的4到5倍，因为90%的老年人没有退休金，甚至连养老院服务都越来越短缺，因此很多老人选择静静的在山边的荒郊野地或者树林里结束生命，避免给自己的孩子造成负担。因为这些以及更多的原因，中国每年被70000抗议者困扰，他们中的很多人更像是暴徒，相当暴力（包括偶尔的爆炸），并且2006年一年就有三十万劳工纠纷，比2001年增加近一倍。

Young men and women I met in the cities had fled the Third World conditions in their farming villages only to accept the yoke of working in sweatshop factories or as bar waitresses, earning just enough to afford a bedroom shared with three others, four to a tiny room, two to a bed. Disposable income was practically nil and life was hard. Education is not a way out for most, since it is not free at any level and university is much too expensive for most young people to afford. The only hope they nurtured was that their country would one day be more affluent and some of that wealth would trickle down their way, as according to the Confucian virtues of "sacrifice" drilled into them by the ruling Communist Party. Recent strikes at factories producing products for Western corporations like Apple, Honda and others have managed to exact sizable wage increases of about 20 percent. But for most Chinese, life is a grim struggle and will remain so for years to come. Walking around China, even with all its tourist charms and ancient curiosities, it is hard to envision a superpower taking shape, no matter how far one peers into the future.

我在城市中遇到的青年男女已经逃离了他们的村庄那种第三世界的环境，但等待他们的只是在血汗工厂里接受奴役或者当做酒吧招待，挣的钱仅够和另外三人合租一间卧室，四个人挤在一间小房间，两人一床。可支配的收入基本为零，生活艰难。教育对绝大多数人来讲不是解决方法，因为任何等级都不是免费的，并且大学对于绝大多数年轻人来讲太贵，根本负担不起。他们致富唯一的希望就是他们的国家有一天会更加富有，一点点财富会滴进他们的生活，就像GCD当政者把儒家精神“奉献”注入进他们一样。最近为西方公司，诸如苹果，本田之类公司生产产品的工厂工罢成功的将工资提高了近20%。但是对于大多数中国人来讲，生活就是严峻的挣扎，并且在未来很多年里会保持现状。行走在中国，即使她有着吸引游客的魅力和古迹的吸引力，也很难预见一个超级大国在此形成，不管多么遥远的未来也是如此。








There's Gold in Them China Hills





中国的山上有金子








Welcome to China Inc., this ancient land where the entire country is run like a giant corporation. Certainly the land of "capitalist communism" -- an oddball combination, to be sure -- has made some impressive gains with its roaring economic growth rates and in lifting several hundred million people out of the abject poverty of the Mao years. Over the past 30 years, China has sustained nearly double-digit growth, a remarkable run which has produced a growing middle class of perhaps 200 million to 300 million people. But an important qualifier is that China started from a very low level of GDP. By 2009, China's per capita GDP still was only $3,600, compared with $46,000 in the United States. China's metrics indicate significant challenges for years to come, and considering all its other economic and environmental ills, its past record is no guarantee of future success. Prophecies of its global leadership are premature at best.








欢迎来到中国公司，这片古老的土地上整个国家就像一个巨大的公司一样运作。当然，这片土地上“资本共产主义”——一个奇怪的组合，的确取得了令人印象深刻的成就，伴随她腾飞的经济增长率和让自毛泽东时代以来绝对贫穷的数亿人摆脱贫穷。在过去的三十年里，中国保持了近两位数的增长，产生了不断增长的，大约两亿到三亿的中产阶级数量，这的确引人注目。但是一个重要的评判标准是，中国起步的GDP非常之低。到2009年为止，中国年人均GDP仅有3600美元，而美国有46000美元。中国的数量暗示了未来多年里明显的挑战，并且考虑到其他的经济和环境弊端，过去的记录并不能保证未来的成功。预言中国的全球领导力显然是不成熟的。




Beyond economic and ecological indicators, the hallmark of a great power is when other nations want to emulate you. What made the United States the great power of the post-World War II era was not just its military might but its promise of economic betterment and freedoms -- glamorized by Hollywood, the best public relations machine ever -- which caused people from all over the world to want to flock to our shores. The City on the Hill inspired people toward an ideal, however much America itself didn't always live up to that ideal. But no one is banging down doors to get into China, and only the poorest countries aim to be like the People's Republic.

抛开经济和生态指标，超级大国的一个显著标志就是其他国家是否想要效仿你。将美国变成二战后的超级大国的并不仅仅是她的军事实力，还有她保证的经济改善和自由——被好莱坞美化，有史以来最好的公共关系机器——让全世界的人都趋之若鹜。这个山丘上的城市激励着人们向往着一个理想，尽管美国自己并没有一直坚持这个理想。但是没有人挤破了门要进入中国，并且只有最穷的国家才立志效仿中国。

China inspires curiosity with its ancient history and huge population, but not envy or emulation. That will not change anytime soon, and perhaps never unless China at some point opens up its political and economic system. The absolute unwillingness of Communist Party authorities to tolerate any public reflection, let alone protest, during the 20-year anniversary in June 2009 of the Tiananmen Square crackdown exposed their great fear of their own people, as well as the lack of confidence among China's rulers in either their system or themselves. It remains to be seen how much of a "new China" will continue to emerge, but all these horizons certainly provide a different view of China from the one typically given by the Sino enthusiasts.

中国激起了外人对其历史和巨大人口的好奇，但完全没有嫉妒或者效仿。这不会突然改变，也许永远不会，除非中国开放她的政治和经济体系。GCD当局对公众反应容忍度为零，更别提09年天安门事件20周年纪念的抗议了，这暴露了他们对自己人民的巨大恐惧，还有中国统治者不管对于他们的系统还是他们本身都缺乏信任。让我们拭目以待，多大程度上一个“新中国”会继续浮现，但是这些地平线当然会提供一个不同的视角，不同于中国的狂热支持者。

Given this reality, why does China receive so many rave reviews while Japan and Europe--which actually do a far better job of providing for their people--are treated with scorn and derision? The answer seems to boil down to the fact that China's high-growth economy has become the place where corporations can realize the quickest return for their quarterly profit sheets. To many awestruck pundits, China represents the future, or at least the future of business success.

知道了这个事实，为什么中国收到了这么多狂热的评价，而日本和欧洲——实际上供养人民这个工作要做的好得多——却被冷嘲热讽呢？答案归结于事实上，中国高增长的经济体已经成为了跨国公司能最快实现他们季度利润表的地方。对一些令人肃然起敬的专家来说，中国代表了未来，或者至少是商业成功的未来。

But it is also the case that China's über-growth has become an ideological weapon in the hands of free market fundamentalists and pro-growth zealots.The Chinese economy and its high growth engine is used to browbeat other countries viewed as growing insufficiently. Europe and Japan are proof that high growth is not necessary to create the highest living standards in the world, yet in an ideological battle between free market fundamentalists and everyone else, China is a useful propaganda tool.

但是也有可能，中国的高增长经济在自由市场原教旨主义者和狂热者手中，已经成为了一种意识形态武器。中国经济和高速增长引擎被用作吓唬其他国家经济增长不足。欧洲和日本就是世界上的证明，证明高增长未必可以创造最高生活标准，但是在一场自由市场原教旨主义者和其他人的意识形态战争中，中国是一个有用的宣传工具。

But once you peel back the curtain, as Toto did in "The Wizard of Oz," the China reality doesn't live up to Wall Street's hype. In fact, the hype actually is damaging to China, as it causes members of the U.S. Congress to propose foolish ideas such as protectionist measures, when in reality China needs different forms of assistance -- especially technical assistance -- from Europe, the U.S. and other developed powers. The entire world has a stake in China succeeding, both economically and in greening its economy and reducing its carbon emissions. The prospect of China as a "failed state" is too terrible to contemplate.

但是你一旦把帘幕揭开，就像Toto在绿野仙踪里做的那样，中国的现实并不与华尔街的炒作相符。事实上，这种炒作正在损害中国，因为它会引起美国国会成员提出诸如保护主义措施之类的愚蠢想法，而事实上中国需要不同方面的援助——特别是技术援助——从欧洲，美国和其他发达国家的援助。整个世界都下赌注赌中国成功，无论是经济上还是生态上还是减少碳排放量。一个中国作为“失败国家”的前景简直不堪设想。

China has come a long way, but it has a long, long way to go. It's anyone's bet whether China will sink or swim. So much for superpower status.

中国已经做了很多，但是未来还有很长很长的路要走。任何人都可以打赌中国会沉没还是继续航行，超级大国的地位也是如此。
http://www.ptfcn.com/ptfcn/z/338.html

The China Superpower Hoax
【原文地址】：http://www.huffingtonpost.com/st ... -hoax_b_821136.html
【发布日期】：2-11-2011
【翻译截止日期】：2011-02-12 06:50:13
【翻译评论数/总评论】：NA / 28
【翻译作者】：laluna1987
【联名作者】：

　　译文导读：很长 评论部分长篇大论 没有完全翻完 大概也就那样吧

文章有些说得有道理 有些完全让人吐血 习惯就好 China must have the best public relations maestros in the world. How else would a country with a lower per capita income than Iran, Mexico and Kazakhstan, one of the worst environmental records of any major nation, endemic corruption, jails stuffed with dissenters, and a dictatorship, besides, be hailed by so many as the next global superpower?

中国无疑是世界上最好的外交大师。要不然这样一个人均收入低过伊朗，墨西哥和哈萨克斯坦，环境记录差过世界上任何一个主流国家，横行无忌的腐败，监狱里塞满不同政见者，和专政的国家，为什么会被这么多人认为是下一个超级大国呢？

Certainly China is big -- 1.3 billion people big, a fifth of the global population. As Forbes' columnist John Lee has written, China has long been the place for the world's biggest anything: the Great Wall, the 2008 Olympics, Tiananmen Square, the South China Mall in Dongguan, dams, consumption of cement and production of automobiles; most recently, China even had the world's biggest traffic jam -- an incredible 60 miles long -- which lasted a month and during which drivers were stuck in their cars for days at a time.

当然，中国很大——13亿人那么大，全世界人口的1/5.就像福布斯专栏作家John Lee所写的那样，中国长久以来就拥有世界上最大的东西：长城，08年奥运会，天安门广场，位于DG的南中国商场，大坝，水泥的消耗量和汽车的生产量；最近，中国甚至出现了世界上最大的交通堵塞——长度是难以置信的60英里——持续一个月，司机曾经一度被困在他们的车里长达几天时间。

The world has never see anything like mega-nations the size of China (or India for that matter), and no one even knows if populations of this magnitude ultimately are sustainable. China's voracious need to supply its population and avoid the social explosions that have plagued its history has made it one of the world's largest consumers of natural resources, especially timber and energy, extracted from places like Africa, Southeast Asia and South America. With such large appetites, China has the ability to drive global markets, and, consequently, has become the new frontier where "get rich quick" investors and Western businesses go panning for gold by speculating in some hot Chinese start-up.

世界从没见过像中国这样庞大的国家（在同样的意义上，印度也是），也没有人会知道这样数量级的人口是否会持续发展。中国想要供给人民，避免历史中长久以来的社会爆炸难题的贪婪需求，已经把她变成一个世界上自然资源最大的消耗者之一，尤其是从非洲，东南亚和南美这样的地方榨取来的木材和能源。有这样大的胃口，中国已经有能力带动世界市场，并且，对于那些“快速致富”的投资者和西方商人来讲，变成了一片新疆域，在此通过投机来淘金。

Unfortunately, the hype ignores a starker reality -- that China is barely holding it together. Contrarian voices like Hu Ping, the chief editor of Beijing Spring, a pro-human rights and democracy journal, try to humanize the conventional wisdom of economic statistics and facts that obscure reality. "With China portrayed in the news every day as an economic and political powerhouse, the rest of the world, at least those parts that treasure freedom and peace, should pay attention to the real China," says Hu.

不幸的是，炒作者忽略了一个严重的现实——就是中国并没有把这些整合在一起。反对的声音如胡平，《北京之春》的主编，一个趋向于支持人权和民主的杂志，试图人性化那些阻碍事实的经济数据。“随着中国每天在新闻里把自己描绘成一个经济和政治的大国，世界上其他国家，至少是那些珍爱自由和和平的国家，应该注意到真实的中国。”

The Paradox of China

中国的矛盾

To understand the "real" China, it is necessary to see it through the double lens of its paradoxical condition as both a major economy and a still-developing country. China is filled with contradictions and serious challenges. When I visited China in August and September of 2008, after the Olympics, the country that I saw, whether in Shanghai, Beijing or the rural areas, was a long, long way from being a global leader in any meaningful sense. Two hundred million people out of a working population of nearly 800 million are migrants, chafing at their lowly status and rotten wages.

为了了解这个“真实”的中国，有必要通过双层镜头看看她既是一个主要经济体，又是一个发展中国家这样自相矛盾的情况。中国充满了矛盾和严重的挑战。当我08年八月和九月在中国旅游时，就在奥运会之后，这个我所看到的国家，不管是在上海还是在北京，还是乡村，在任何意义上都离世界领导者相去甚远。8亿可工作人口中的两亿是移民，忍受着低微的社会地位和少得可怜的工资。

Inequality is rampant. Returning from the rural areas -- where the vast majority of Chinese still live -- to cities is like a form of time travel, moving from feudal conditions where plowing is still done by water buffalo to a land of impressively jutting skyscrapers. Corruption is epidemic, whether in banks, the legal system or the political leadership at national, provincial and local levels, causing an estimated annual economic loss of approximately 15 percent of GDP, according to economist Hu Angang.

不平等横行肆虐。从乡村——大多数中国人仍在那里居住——回到城市就像时光旅行一样，从一个封建的环境，耕种仍然用水牛的地方，到一个摩天大楼鳞次栉比的地方。根据经济学家胡鞍钢，贪污腐败横行肆虐，不管是在银行，在法律系统或者国家，省务还是地方政府部门，导致年经济损失高达15%的GDP。

Even China's much-touted economic power has been misunderstood. Recently it was announced around the world that China had surpassed Japan to become the second-largest national economy. But compared to the United States and Europe, China is still an economic mini-me. Europe's gross domestic product is $17.5 trillion, according to the latest IMF figures, while the U.S. figure is $14.8 trillion and China's is $5.4 trillion (by Europe, I mean the EU 27 plus Norway, Switzerland and Iceland).

甚至中国极力鼓吹的经济能力也被误读了。最近全世界得知，中国已经超越日本成为全世界第二大经济体。但是对比于美国和欧洲，中国仍然是一个经济上的小矮人。根据国际货币基金组织最新的数据显示，欧洲的GDP是17.5万亿美元，美国14.8万亿，中国5.4万亿（我所称的欧洲，是指欧盟27国加上挪威，瑞士和冰岛）。

Beyond economic output, more than three-fifths of China's overall exports and nearly all its high-tech exports are made by non-Chinese, foreign companies. Foreign companies take advantage of low Chinese wages to reprocess imports of semi-manufactured goods that are then shipped to Europe and the U.S. China remains, in essence, a subcontractor to the West, says Will Hutton, British political analyst and author of an influential book on China, "The Writing on the Wall." Despite China's export success, there are few great Chinese brands or companies. China needs to build them, says Hutton, but doing that in a one-party authoritarian state, where the party second-guesses business strategy for ideological and political ends, is impossible."

在经济产出之外，超过3/5的中国出口和几乎所有的高科技出口是靠非中国人，也就是外国公司。外国公司利用低廉的中国工资水平来加工进口半成品，然后源源不断地运到欧洲和美国。中国实质上仍然是西方的承包商，根据Will Hutton，英国政治分析家，也是一本非常有影响力的关于中国的书《墙壁上的文字》的作者。尽管中国出口业的巨大成功，中国知名的商标或者公司仍然屈指可数。中国需要创立这些，Hutton说道，但是在这样一个一党专政的极权国家是不可能的。

Because of China's climate of corruption and authoritarian secrecy, even the volume of industrial output has been questioned. Some doubt China's numbers and official reports. Investment guru James Chanos, who rose to prominence when he predicted the Enron meltdown (and pocketed a billion dollars shorting Enron stock), is shorting China now.

由于中国的腐败和专制保密这样一个大环境，甚至工业的产出也被质疑。有些人怀疑中国的数据和官方报告。投资领袖James Chanos，曾因预言安然集团的崩溃（并且赚足一亿美元做空安然股票）而举世瞩目，现在正在做空中国。

Says Chanos, "China is cooking its books. State-run companies are buying fleets of cars and storing them in parking lots and warehouses" to pump up state-mandated production figures. As evidence of this, experts point out that while car sales have been rising by a huge 20 percent per month, auto fuel usage seems to be rising by only 3-5 percent per month. Chanos also says China is plagued by an ominously growing real estate bubble in high-rise buildings, offices and condos. Much of China's high growth originally came from decades-long heavy investment in infrastructure, but increasingly it has been coming from construction. Chanos estimates that 50 percent to 60 percent of China's GDP now comes from alarming levels of overbuilding, virtually none of which is affordable to the average Chinese. "This is not affordable housing for the middle class; this is high-end condos in major urban areas and high-end office buildings, which no one is buying," says Chanos.

Chanos称，“中国自己炮制数据，国营公司买下成船的汽车，然后把他们存放在停车场或者仓库里”吹高国家要求的生产数据。证据是，专家指出汽车销量增长近20%每月，而汽油用量仅仅增长了3%-5%。Chanos还称中国正在被凶险的日益成长的房地产泡沫所困扰。中国大部分的高增长来源于几十年重金投资基础建设，但是目前正越来越来源于房产建设。Chanos估计中国50%-60%的GDP来源于令人警惕的过热建设，基本上没有哪个是普通中国人消费得起的。“这不是中产阶级可以负担的房子；这些是城市中心区高档的别墅和高档的写字楼，没有人会买，”Chanos说道。

China is on this "treadmill to hell," he says, because so much of its GDP growth comes from construction which can't be sustained. If China were to slow down the construction industry, its GDP growth would go negative very quickly.

中国正在大踏步的跑进地狱，他说，因为大部分GDP增长来自于房产建设，并不能持续发展。如果中国减慢建设工业，她的GDP增长会迅速降为负值。

"That's not going to happen, because in China people are rewarded at almost every level of government for making their economic growth numbers. The easiest way to do that is put up another building. They're really hooked on this sort of heroin of real estate development to keep the numbers going," Chanos says.

“这不可能发生，因为在中国人们为制造他们的经济成长层层受奖。最简单的方法就是再盖一栋楼。他们真的被这种通过房地产发展维持数字增长的海洛因勾住了。”Chanos说。

Sino enthusiasts are betting that China's rulers, whom they see as having been competent stewards of a growing economy for decades, have the means to slowly let the air out of the bubble and avert disaster. But with entire building complexes--urban forests of office and condo high-rises--standing empty in China, Chanos and others are predicting a housing market crash like the one that occurred in the United States.

中国的狂热支持者打赌中国的统治者，令经济成长几十年的人们有方法慢慢让泡沫里的空气泄漏，停止灾难。但是伴着中国城市里空置的丛林一般的写字楼和高级别墅，Chanos和其他人预言中国的房地产市场将像美国一样崩溃。

Walking an Environmental Tightrope Without a Net

行走在没有保护网的环境钢丝上

The only thing cloudier than China's economic model is the sky over its major cities, so choked with smog that some days you can't see the high-rises a few blocks away. During the run-up to the 2008 Olympics in Beijing, many were concerned that athletes wouldn't be able to breathe the foul air. To try to clear the air, the government instituted an odd-even auto policy, i.e. cars with license plates ending in an even number could drive one day, odd numbers the next. People in Beijing told me that the skies had not been so clear in decades (and they were greatly chagrined when the authorities eventually reverted to the previous laissez-faire policy, resulting in unprecedented traffic jams that make India's look tame by comparison).

比中国的经济模型更云山雾罩的是她主要城市的天空，完全被烟雾覆盖，有时你甚至看不清几条街区之外的楼。在北京备战08年奥运会时，很多人担心运动员不能呼吸浑浊的空气。为了试图清洁空气，政府采取了单双号限行措施，比如，车号尾数为偶开一天，为奇数的开另外一天。在北京的人们告诉我几十年来天从没有像这样干净过（当当局最终恢复之前放任不管的政策，导致空前的交通堵塞，相形之下印度看起来都很整洁了，他们大为懊恼）。

Four hundred thousand Chinese die every year of respiratory diseases caused by pollution. About 500 million rural Chinese -- equivalent to the population of the entire European Union -- still do not have access to safe drinking water. Acid rain, caused by sulfur dioxide emissions that belch from smokestacks of power plants, is endemic, with the state-run China Daily reporting that in Guangdong province -- China's most prosperous region, and also its most industrialized -- 53 percent of total rainfall in 2008 was acid rain.

四十万中国人每年死于因污染引起的呼吸系统疾病。大约5亿中国人民——差不多等于整个欧盟的人口——仍没有获取安全饮用水的途径。由于发电站二氧化硫排放引起的酸雨横行，国营的中国日报报道说广东省——中国最繁荣也是工业化程度最深的地区——08年53%的降雨是酸雨。

Food scares, such as industrial toxins mixed into milk powder, pet food and cough syrup, have been frequent, and there have been instances of exported toys bearing lead paint and drywall containing highly toxic sulfur compounds that made brand-new homes in the U.S. and elsewhere unlivable.

食物更是吓人，诸如奶粉里掺杂工业毒素，宠物食品和止咳糖浆层出不穷，而且曾有出口玩具含铅和干墙含剧毒硫化物的先例，使得美国和其他地方的崭新房子无法居住。

These consumer dangers are additional manifestations of the amoral, corrupt, robber-baron business practices that have been unleashed in China. The 2008 earthquakes in western Sichuan province, which resulted in the collapse of more than 7,000 schoolrooms and thousands of deaths among schoolchildren, disproportionately impacted the poor who lived in areas where corruption had resulted in shoddy construction practices. The suicide rate among the elderly in rural areas is four to five times higher than the world average because 90 percent of the elderly have no retirement pension, even as there is a growing shortage of nursing home services, and so many elderly choose to quietly end their lives on a barren hillside or in a forest to avoid being a burden to their children. For all these reasons and more, China is plagued by 70,000 protests per year, many of them more like riots and quite violent (including occasional bombings), and had 300,000 labor disputes in 2006 alone, nearly double the number reported in 2001.

这些对消费者的危险是不道德的，腐败的甚至是强盗行径的商业行为，在中国从未被约束。2008年四川西部的地震导致了7000多学校的倒塌和数以千计的学生死亡，不成比例的冲击了在腐败导致伪劣建筑的地区居住的穷人。乡村老年人的自杀率高出世界平均的4到5倍，因为90%的老年人没有退休金，甚至连养老院服务都越来越短缺，因此很多老人选择静静的在山边的荒郊野地或者树林里结束生命，避免给自己的孩子造成负担。因为这些以及更多的原因，中国每年被70000抗议者困扰，他们中的很多人更像是暴徒，相当暴力（包括偶尔的爆炸），并且2006年一年就有三十万劳工纠纷，比2001年增加近一倍。

Young men and women I met in the cities had fled the Third World conditions in their farming villages only to accept the yoke of working in sweatshop factories or as bar waitresses, earning just enough to afford a bedroom shared with three others, four to a tiny room, two to a bed. Disposable income was practically nil and life was hard. Education is not a way out for most, since it is not free at any level and university is much too expensive for most young people to afford. The only hope they nurtured was that their country would one day be more affluent and some of that wealth would trickle down their way, as according to the Confucian virtues of "sacrifice" drilled into them by the ruling Communist Party. Recent strikes at factories producing products for Western corporations like Apple, Honda and others have managed to exact sizable wage increases of about 20 percent. But for most Chinese, life is a grim struggle and will remain so for years to come. Walking around China, even with all its tourist charms and ancient curiosities, it is hard to envision a superpower taking shape, no matter how far one peers into the future.

我在城市中遇到的青年男女已经逃离了他们的村庄那种第三世界的环境，但等待他们的只是在血汗工厂里接受奴役或者当做酒吧招待，挣的钱仅够和另外三人合租一间卧室，四个人挤在一间小房间，两人一床。可支配的收入基本为零，生活艰难。教育对绝大多数人来讲不是解决方法，因为任何等级都不是免费的，并且大学对于绝大多数年轻人来讲太贵，根本负担不起。他们致富唯一的希望就是他们的国家有一天会更加富有，一点点财富会滴进他们的生活，就像GCD当政者把儒家精神“奉献”注入进他们一样。最近为西方公司，诸如苹果，本田之类公司生产产品的工厂工罢成功的将工资提高了近20%。但是对于大多数中国人来讲，生活就是严峻的挣扎，并且在未来很多年里会保持现状。行走在中国，即使她有着吸引游客的魅力和古迹的吸引力，也很难预见一个超级大国在此形成，不管多么遥远的未来也是如此。








There's Gold in Them China Hills





中国的山上有金子








Welcome to China Inc., this ancient land where the entire country is run like a giant corporation. Certainly the land of "capitalist communism" -- an oddball combination, to be sure -- has made some impressive gains with its roaring economic growth rates and in lifting several hundred million people out of the abject poverty of the Mao years. Over the past 30 years, China has sustained nearly double-digit growth, a remarkable run which has produced a growing middle class of perhaps 200 million to 300 million people. But an important qualifier is that China started from a very low level of GDP. By 2009, China's per capita GDP still was only $3,600, compared with $46,000 in the United States. China's metrics indicate significant challenges for years to come, and considering all its other economic and environmental ills, its past record is no guarantee of future success. Prophecies of its global leadership are premature at best.








欢迎来到中国公司，这片古老的土地上整个国家就像一个巨大的公司一样运作。当然，这片土地上“资本共产主义”——一个奇怪的组合，的确取得了令人印象深刻的成就，伴随她腾飞的经济增长率和让自毛泽东时代以来绝对贫穷的数亿人摆脱贫穷。在过去的三十年里，中国保持了近两位数的增长，产生了不断增长的，大约两亿到三亿的中产阶级数量，这的确引人注目。但是一个重要的评判标准是，中国起步的GDP非常之低。到2009年为止，中国年人均GDP仅有3600美元，而美国有46000美元。中国的数量暗示了未来多年里明显的挑战，并且考虑到其他的经济和环境弊端，过去的记录并不能保证未来的成功。预言中国的全球领导力显然是不成熟的。




Beyond economic and ecological indicators, the hallmark of a great power is when other nations want to emulate you. What made the United States the great power of the post-World War II era was not just its military might but its promise of economic betterment and freedoms -- glamorized by Hollywood, the best public relations machine ever -- which caused people from all over the world to want to flock to our shores. The City on the Hill inspired people toward an ideal, however much America itself didn't always live up to that ideal. But no one is banging down doors to get into China, and only the poorest countries aim to be like the People's Republic.

抛开经济和生态指标，超级大国的一个显著标志就是其他国家是否想要效仿你。将美国变成二战后的超级大国的并不仅仅是她的军事实力，还有她保证的经济改善和自由——被好莱坞美化，有史以来最好的公共关系机器——让全世界的人都趋之若鹜。这个山丘上的城市激励着人们向往着一个理想，尽管美国自己并没有一直坚持这个理想。但是没有人挤破了门要进入中国，并且只有最穷的国家才立志效仿中国。

China inspires curiosity with its ancient history and huge population, but not envy or emulation. That will not change anytime soon, and perhaps never unless China at some point opens up its political and economic system. The absolute unwillingness of Communist Party authorities to tolerate any public reflection, let alone protest, during the 20-year anniversary in June 2009 of the Tiananmen Square crackdown exposed their great fear of their own people, as well as the lack of confidence among China's rulers in either their system or themselves. It remains to be seen how much of a "new China" will continue to emerge, but all these horizons certainly provide a different view of China from the one typically given by the Sino enthusiasts.

中国激起了外人对其历史和巨大人口的好奇，但完全没有嫉妒或者效仿。这不会突然改变，也许永远不会，除非中国开放她的政治和经济体系。GCD当局对公众反应容忍度为零，更别提09年天安门事件20周年纪念的抗议了，这暴露了他们对自己人民的巨大恐惧，还有中国统治者不管对于他们的系统还是他们本身都缺乏信任。让我们拭目以待，多大程度上一个“新中国”会继续浮现，但是这些地平线当然会提供一个不同的视角，不同于中国的狂热支持者。

Given this reality, why does China receive so many rave reviews while Japan and Europe--which actually do a far better job of providing for their people--are treated with scorn and derision? The answer seems to boil down to the fact that China's high-growth economy has become the place where corporations can realize the quickest return for their quarterly profit sheets. To many awestruck pundits, China represents the future, or at least the future of business success.

知道了这个事实，为什么中国收到了这么多狂热的评价，而日本和欧洲——实际上供养人民这个工作要做的好得多——却被冷嘲热讽呢？答案归结于事实上，中国高增长的经济体已经成为了跨国公司能最快实现他们季度利润表的地方。对一些令人肃然起敬的专家来说，中国代表了未来，或者至少是商业成功的未来。

But it is also the case that China's über-growth has become an ideological weapon in the hands of free market fundamentalists and pro-growth zealots.The Chinese economy and its high growth engine is used to browbeat other countries viewed as growing insufficiently. Europe and Japan are proof that high growth is not necessary to create the highest living standards in the world, yet in an ideological battle between free market fundamentalists and everyone else, China is a useful propaganda tool.

但是也有可能，中国的高增长经济在自由市场原教旨主义者和狂热者手中，已经成为了一种意识形态武器。中国经济和高速增长引擎被用作吓唬其他国家经济增长不足。欧洲和日本就是世界上的证明，证明高增长未必可以创造最高生活标准，但是在一场自由市场原教旨主义者和其他人的意识形态战争中，中国是一个有用的宣传工具。

But once you peel back the curtain, as Toto did in "The Wizard of Oz," the China reality doesn't live up to Wall Street's hype. In fact, the hype actually is damaging to China, as it causes members of the U.S. Congress to propose foolish ideas such as protectionist measures, when in reality China needs different forms of assistance -- especially technical assistance -- from Europe, the U.S. and other developed powers. The entire world has a stake in China succeeding, both economically and in greening its economy and reducing its carbon emissions. The prospect of China as a "failed state" is too terrible to contemplate.

但是你一旦把帘幕揭开，就像Toto在绿野仙踪里做的那样，中国的现实并不与华尔街的炒作相符。事实上，这种炒作正在损害中国，因为它会引起美国国会成员提出诸如保护主义措施之类的愚蠢想法，而事实上中国需要不同方面的援助——特别是技术援助——从欧洲，美国和其他发达国家的援助。整个世界都下赌注赌中国成功，无论是经济上还是生态上还是减少碳排放量。一个中国作为“失败国家”的前景简直不堪设想。

China has come a long way, but it has a long, long way to go. It's anyone's bet whether China will sink or swim. So much for superpower status.

中国已经做了很多，但是未来还有很长很长的路要走。任何人都可以打赌中国会沉没还是继续航行，超级大国的地位也是如此。
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