超级军网zt:亚洲的力量平衡,中国的军事崛起--看看国外网友对中国 ...
来源：百度文库 编辑：超级军网 时间：2024/04/29 02:11:22
亚洲的力量平衡,中国的军事崛起
作者:棉花糖 发布日期:2012-04-08 浏览:12232
正文翻译:NO MATTER how often China hasemphasised the idea of a peaceful rise, the pace and nature of its militarymodernisation inevitably cause alarm. As Americaand the big European powers reduce their defence spending, China lookslikely to maintain the past decade’s increases of about 12% a year. Even thoughits defence budget is less than a quarter the size of America’s today, China’s generals are ambitious. Thecountry is on course to become the world’s largest military spender in just 20years or so (see article).
Much of its effort is aimed atdeterring America fromintervening in a future crisis over Taiwan. Chinais investing heavily in “asymmetric capabilities” designed to blunt America’sonce-overwhelming capacity to project power in the region. This“anti-access/area denial” approach includes thousands of accurate land-basedballistic and cruise missiles, modern jets with anti-ship missiles, a fleet ofsubmarines (both conventionally and nuclear-powered), long-range radars andsurveillance satellites, and cyber and space weapons intended to “blind”American forces. Most talked about is a new ballistic missile said to be ableto put a manoeuvrable warhead onto the deck of an aircraft-carrier 2,700km(1,700 miles) out at sea.
不管中国如何反复强调我要和平崛起，她军队现代化的步伐和意向不可避免的造成周边恐慌。当美国和大欧洲在裁剪他们的军事开销时，中国近十年来一直保持了每年12%的军费增长。尽管她的军费预算依然不到美国的四分之一，但是中国的将军们野心勃勃。再过20年左右，这个国家将成为全球军费最多的国家。她大多数的努力旨在台海危机爆发后阻止美国的军事力量介入。中国大力投资在“不对称力量”，用于削弱美国投射于该地区的一次性压倒性力量。
这种“反介入/反地区投射”的方针包含了成千上万个精确制导的陆基弹道导弹和巡航导弹，现代化战斗机和反舰导弹，潜艇部队（常规的和核动力的），远程雷达和间谍卫星，用于致盲美国卫星的网络和太空武器。现在最受关注的一种新型岸舰导弹，据说它的弹头能在空中机动，并能击中2700公里（1700英里）外航母的甲板。
China says all this is defensive, but itstactical doctrines emphasise striking first if it must. Accordingly, China aims to be able to launch disablingattacks on American bases in the western Pacific and push America’s carrier groups beyond what it callsthe “first island chain”, sealing off the Yellow Sea, South China Sea and EastChina Sea inside an arc running from the Aleutians in the north to Borneo in the south. Were Taiwanto attempt formal secession from the mainland, China could launch a series ofpre-emptive strikes to delay American intervention and raise its costprohibitively.
中国说这些统统都是用来自卫的，但是她的战术理论强调的是，如果必要的话必须先发制人。因此，中国的目标是能发动对西太平美国基地的毁灭性打击，把美国的航母战斗群挤出所谓的第一岛链，封锁北至阿留申群岛南至婆罗洲之间的黄海，南中国海，东中国海。当台湾打算正式从大陆分裂的话，中国就能发动一系列先发制人的打击来延缓美国的干预，大大增加美国干预的代价以使美国望而祛步。
This has already had an effect on China’sneighbours, who fear that it will draw them into its sphere of influence. Japan, South Korea,India and even Australia arequietly spending more on defence, especially on their navies. Barack Obama’snew “pivot” towards Asia includes a clear signal that America willstill guarantee its allies’ security. This week a contingent of 200 US marines arrived in Darwin,while India took formalcharge of a nuclear submarine, leased from Russia.
这些同时对中国的邻居造成了一些影响，他们担心被纳入中国的势力范围。日本，韩国，印度甚至澳大利亚都在默默的加军费，特别是增加他们的海军军费。奥巴马针对亚洲的新“支点”概念传达了一个明确的信息，美国会保护他盟友们的安全。本周有200名美国海军陆战队驻扎澳大利亚的达尔文港，印度正式支付从俄罗斯租用的核潜艇。
En garde
The prospect of an Asian arms raceis genuinely frightening, but prudent concern about China’s build-up must not lapseinto hysteria. For the moment at least, China is far less formidable thanhawks on both sides claim. Its armed forces have had no real combat experiencefor more than 30 years, whereas America’shave been fighting, and learning, constantly. The capacity of the People’sLiberation Army (PLA) for complex joint operations in a hostile environment isuntested. China’sformidable missile and submarine forces would pose a threat to American carriergroups near its coast, but not farther out to sea for some time at least.Blue-water operations for China’snavy are limited to anti-piracy patrolling in the Indian Ocean and the rescueof Chinese workers from war-torn Libya. Two or three smallaircraft-carriers may soon be deployed, but learning to use them will take manyyears. Nobody knows if the “carrier-killer” missile can be made to work.
亚洲陷入军备竞赛的前景是非常可怕的，但是要谨慎审视中国的军备建设而别陷入歇斯底里。至少现在，中国还远不如两边鹰派们所宣称的那么强大。中国的军队30多年没有打仗的经验了，而美国还在持续不断的打仗和学习。解放军在复杂恶劣环境里的联合作战力量并没有得到检验。中国强大的导弹和潜艇力量会在她自己的沿海威胁美国的航母，但是一旦进入大洋那就未必了。中国的蓝水海军行动还仅限于在印度洋巡逻反海盗，在战乱的利比亚援救中国工人。2到3艘小型航母也许会马上入役，但是要学习怎么使用它们则要花上很多年。现在人们还不知道“航母杀手”导弹是否可以投入使用。
As for China’s longer-term intentions, theWest should acknowledge that it is hardly unnatural for a rising power toaspire to have armed forces that reflect its growing economic clout. China consistently devotes a bit over 2% of GDPto defence—about the same as Britainand France and half of what America spends.That share may fall if Chinese growth slows or the government faces demands formore social spending. Chinamight well use force to stop Taiwanfrom formally seceding. Yet, apart from claims over the virtually uninhabitedSpratly and Paracel Islands, China is notexpansionist: it already has its empire. Its policy of non-interference in theaffairs of other states constrains what it can do itself.
在中国长远意图上讲，西方国家应该意识到一个上升的强权国家在他经济力量增长的同时渴望军事力量是很自然的事情。中国一直贯彻只投入占GDP2%对一点的钱到军费里—跟英国和法国一样只占美国的一半。而这个比例还可能会下降，当中国经济放缓时政府会面临很多其他的社会性开销。中国也许会很好的利用她的力量来阻止台湾的正式分裂。然而，除开中国生成拥有那些几乎荒无人烟的南沙和西沙群岛，中国并非是扩张主义者，她已经拥有了整个帝国。她的互不干涉他国内政的政策限制她的行为。
The trouble is that China’s intentionsare so unpredictable. On the one hand China is increasingly willing toengage with global institutions. Unlike the old Soviet Union, it has a stake in the liberal world economic order, and nointerest in exporting a competing ideology. The Communist Party’s legitimacydepends on being able to honour its promise of prosperity. A cold war with theWest would undermine that. On the other hand, China engages with the rest of theworld on its own terms, suspicious of institutions it believes are run to serveWestern interests. And its assertiveness, particularly in maritime territorialdisputes, has grown with its might. The dangers of military miscalculation aretoo high for comfort.
现在比较苦恼的是不知道中国的意图。一方面中国积极希望参与全球化机构。不像前苏联，她在自由世界的经济体系内有自己的一份，而且对出口意识形态毫无兴趣。共产党的执政合法性取决于它是否能维持它承诺的繁荣。而与西方进行冷战会削弱繁荣（以致动摇执政合法性）。另一方面，中国以与世界其他地方不同的方式参与，怀疑那些机构都是为西方利益服务的。而且她的自信心，特别是当在海上领海冲突时，随着军事力量的增长而增长。军事误判的代价太高了。
How to avoid accidents
如何避免意外
It is in China’s interests to build confidence with itsneighbours, reduce mutual strategic distrust with America and demonstrate itswillingness to abide by global norms. A good start would be to submitterritorial disputes over islands in the East and South China Seas to internationalarbitration. Another step would be to strengthen promising regional bodies suchas the East Asian Summit and ASEAN Plus Three. Above all, Chinese generalsshould talk far more with American ones. At present, despite much Pentagonprompting, contacts between the two armed forces are limited, tightly controlledby the PLA and ritually frozen by politicians whenever they want to “punish”America—usually because of a tiff over Taiwan.
建立与邻邦的信心，降低与美国之间战略的互不信任，证明她愿意遵守全球规范是符合中国的利益的。把东海和南海的岛屿争端提交给国际仲裁会是一个良好的开端。另一步是加强地方区域机构，像东亚峰会，东南亚+3（中日韩）。除了以上所有的，中国的将军们应该和美国的将军们加强交流。目前，尽管五角大厦一直在推动军事交流，但是总是被解放军给严格限制，有时候还会被政治家们给冻结了，当他们想“惩罚”美国的时候—通常是因为对台军售。
America’s response should mix military strengthwith diplomatic subtlety. It must retain the ability to project force in Asia:to do otherwise would feed Chinese hawks’ belief that America is adeclining power which can be shouldered aside. But it can do more to counter China’sparanoia. To his credit, Mr Obama has sought to lower tensions over Taiwan andmade it clear that he does not want to contain China (far less encircle it asChinese nationalists fear). Americamust resist the temptation to make every security issue a test of China’s goodfaith. There are bound to be disagreements between the superpowers; and if China cannotpursue its own interests within the liberal world order, it will become moreawkward and potentially belligerent. That is when things could get nasty.
美国的反应通常是军事力量与外交的微妙结合。美国必须坚持在亚洲的力量：不然会加强中国鹰派的信念，他们认为美国是衰弱中的超级大国是时候靠边站了。但是美国应该再多做点来解除中国的偏执。奥巴马以他的信誉表示，他会缓解台湾紧张局势，同时明确表示不会遏制中国（不像中国民族主义者担心的那样包围中国）。美国必须抵制把每个安全问题都当做对中国善意的测试。超级大国之间难免会有分歧：但是如果中国不在自由世界的规矩下追求自己的利益，但是她会变成更尴尬而变成潜在交战国。那个时候事情就变的肮脏了。
评论翻译:
1.Connect The Dots April 4th, 16:25
Compare the Geo-Political-Military Threats of the United States vs China:
The USborders on Canada and Mexico. TheUS-Canadian Border is the the longest unguarded border in the world. The twonations are friends and brothers for over 200 years. There is no military orweapons. Mexicois the southern border. Mexicohas never been a military power. The biggest threat at the US Mexican border isillegal immigration, drug smuggling and Pancho Villa type outlaws. The US has theworld's most advanced military. It s a Superpower. And is the second thelargest nuclear force in the world.
比较下美国和中国的地缘政治和军事威胁：
美国是加拿大和墨西哥的邻国。美加边境是世界上最长的没有戒备的边境。两个国家当了朋友和兄弟长达200多年（译者注：吐槽下1814年加拿大的英军还烧了白宫呢）。那里没有武器和军队。墨西哥是南部边境。墨西哥从来不是军事强国。美墨边境的最大威胁是非法越境，走私毒品，和Pancho Villa（译者注：一个墨西哥起义军，被西方描述成杀人魔王）式的违法行为。美国有世界上最先进的军队。他是超级大国、他是地球上第二大的核武力量。
China shares borders with Russia,North Korea, India, and Pakistan, all of which are nuclearpowers. Russiais the world's largest nuclear power. It is still aggressive and empire driven.North Koreais the definition of a reclusive and unpredictable hermit kingdom. India is rivals with China for the 21st century. And India is locked in a nuclear standoff with Pakistan thatwill make the Cold War look like a short tiff.
中国与俄罗斯，朝鲜，印度，巴基斯坦相邻，以上国家都有核武器。俄罗斯是世界上核武最强国。他依然好战和帝国主义。朝鲜是个孤僻的，无法预测的隐士国度。印度是中国在21世纪的对手。印度和巴基斯坦陷入核僵局的对峙，就像一场小型冷战。
And Chinashares borders with Afghanistan,Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan,unstable former Soviet Republics struggling withterror and militant Islam. Up until last month Kazakhstan had enough plutonium tobuild their own nuclear weapons. Now Iran, one country away, is lookingto develop nuclear tipped missiles.
中国是阿富汗，塔吉克斯坦，吉尔吉斯斯坦和哈萨克斯坦那些不稳定的前苏联加盟国和有激进穆斯林与恐怖分子的邻国。上个月，哈萨克斯坦有了足够的鈈来制造核武器。伊朗，一个稍微远点的国家，在寻求发展高端能发射核弹头的导弹。
And Chinashares borders and has disputes and potential instability issues issues with Nepal, India,Mongolia, Vietnam, Laosand Myanmar.It has fought two savage wars with Vietnameven after Americaleft, and the Spratly isles may prove to be another fuse.
中国和尼泊尔，印度，蒙古，越南，老挝，缅甸相邻，并且边境上有隐患。在美国人走了后，中国教训了越南两次，南沙群岛的岛屿纷争是另外一个导火索。
And Chinafaces off with advanced weaponry a stones throw away from South Korea, Japan,Taiwan, and Singapore. TheJapanese Forces are the world's second most expensively equipped army, highlysophisticated and advanced. Within 2-5 years, if they wanted, South Korea, Japan,and Taiwan could alsodevelop nuclear arms to counter China.
同时中国和有先进装备的日本，韩国，台湾，新加坡只有一臂之遥。日本军队是全世界第二昂贵武器装备的军队，高度复杂和先进。如果他们需要，在2-5年内，韩国，日本，台湾会开发核武来对抗中国。
Throw in regional conflicts with Indonesia, Malaysian, Australia,Philippines and Timor. Not to mention Pirates.
还有印度尼西亚，马来西亚，澳大利亚，菲律宾和东帝汶等地区冲突，我还没说海盗呢。
And just about every country in Asia has some territorialand sovereignty or fishing disputes with China. Just being neighbors to Kimil-Song for 30 years is enough to drive your diplomats crazy!
几乎亚洲所有的国家都和中国有领土领海和渔业冲突。和金正恩当30年的邻居足够让你的外交官崩溃了。
And then finally consider the American Navy PacificFleet, the world's largest and most potent. More aircraft carriers can beassembled off the Chinese coast than the rest of the world combined. All atonce, a thousand aircraft can attack, some of which are stealth secret. One USSOhio Class Trident Submarine is the world's third most powerful nuclear force.Anti ballistic and anti satellite weapons. Smart bombs that can be deliveredworld wide 24/7/365 day or night in any weather.American special forces can sneak in your house by stealth helicopter, eat yourdinner and leave by submarine. And they sail around the Taiwan strait, both above and undersea. And American sailors drink andfeast in Taipeias honored guests.
最后我来说下美国的太平洋舰队，全世界最大最强的武装。部署在中国沿海的航母比美国部署在全世界其他地方加起来还要多。一次能发动一千架飞机进行袭击，还有一些绝密的东东。美国海军的俄亥俄级核潜艇是全世界第三大核武攻击力量。反导和反卫星武器。聪明蛋能在任何天气任何时间达到世界任何一个角落。美国的特种部队能用隐形直升机潜入你的房子，吃掉你的晚餐，然后坐潜艇走人。美国大兵能巡游台湾海峡，不管是从海面上还是海面下。美国大兵在台北以座上宾的姿态享受美食美酒。
China is in a bad neighborhood compared to America.
It needs a much larger military force because ofcircumstances. It would love to have Mexicoand Canada, but instead has North Korea, Vietnam,Myanmar, Russia, Afghanistan,Pakistan and India forneighbors.
China's Geopolitical situation is probably even worse than Israel in anArab sea.
中国的周边环境远比不上美国。因为这个环境，她需要一个更庞大的军队。她希望有墨西哥和加拿大这样的邻居，但是她的邻居是朝鲜，越南，缅甸，俄罗斯，阿富汗，巴基斯坦和印度。
中国的周边环境可比在阿拉伯地区的以色列差多了。
2.nkab April 4th, 19:45
Oh my God. When in the course of human development,...
when China’sper capita GDP being still only a tenth of America’s;
上帝啊，在人类发展的过程中。。。。
当中国的人均GDP还只有美国的10分之1的时候.
when the UShas been holding joint exercises with China'sneighbors with saber rattling and bullying, almost continuously, right in frontof China'sshores;
当美国持续参与和中国的邻国们在中国海岸前的大型军演的时候，不断的张牙舞爪和恐吓。
when Chinahas zero carrier battle group to park at its driveway and the US has 10 nuclear super carrier battle groupsplying waters at China’sdoor step and back waters;
当中国还没有一艘航母的时候，美国带着10个超级航母编队在中国的家门口巡弋。
when every member of BRIC has a carrier except China, even neighbor Thailand has got one;
当金砖之国都有航母的时候就中国没有，甚至泰国都有。
when Chinahas zero protection of its vital sea lanes with zero foreign base (the US has over 800foreign bases);
当中国没有一个海外基地来保护她重要的海上通道的时候，美国有800个海外基地。
when Chinais bombarded by incessant filing at WTO and bulling protectionist rhetoric andintimidation in the US;
当中国饱和性轰炸般的提交入WTO的申请的时候，受到美国贸易保护者的恐吓与欺凌。
when China is surrounded by "containment" inevery which way and every step of way, by US vassal Japan and semi vassal S.Korea from the east, semi-something Philippines and others like India from thesouth, with Australia joining the fray...;
当中国被各个方向各种角度所“遏制”的时候，是美国的附庸日本和半附庸韩国从东面，是半那个啥的菲律宾和某些人像印度从南面，还有澳大利亚他们参加遏制。
And you call all this China threatening? Not USthreatening?
所以你说这些就是中国威胁？而不是美国威胁？
And just when China is about to emerge out from pickingup its pieces of lives and to shaking off humiliation and near totaldevastation of war ravaged livelihoods by the Japanese aggression, and selfinflicted wounds of cultural revolution ;
then comes along the Economist seeing fit to call China “the paceand nature of its military modernization inevitably cause alarm”?
当中国从过去支离破碎的中崛起，摆脱日本侵略战争所蹂躏的屈辱，愈合文革造成的创伤。然后经济学人是这么来评价中国的，“她军事现代化的步伐和性质不可避免的造成了恐慌”
It is understandable that the West does not want to havea rising China,but why bother with such propaganda of fear? Who is kidding whom? And Who isthreatening whom?
As the Economist admits, “China is far less formidable thanhawks on both sides claim”. As such there’s absolutely no need for China to keep emphasizing the idea of a peacefulrise either, because there ain’t no other ways for China, except to rise peacefully. Andpeacefully it will rise.
西方不希望有一个崛起的中国这个完全可以理解，但是还到处宣传中国威胁论？开什么玩笑？到底是谁在威胁谁？
就像经济学人承认的“中国远没有两边鹰派所宣称的那么强大”。其实中国完全不需要反复强调和平崛起，因为对中国来说除了和平崛起，只能和平崛起。然后她会和平崛起的。
3.Jean Michel April 4th, 16:37
This article looks like a "commercial" for the US, UK,France and Germany to selltheir military hardware to other countries.
这篇文章看起来像是为美国英国法国德国出售武器给其他国家的“商业广告”。
原创翻译:http://www.ltaaa.com/ 译者:棉花糖 转载请注明出处
4.KACEY1 April 4th, 16:29
There are several thoughts come to my mind:
以下是我的一些观点：
1. Every American is a ‘negative’ millionaire, if you addthe federal government deficits, underfunded Medicare, underfunded socialsecurity, underfunded prescription drugs, underfunded FDIC, student loans,mortgages, credit card balances, state/county/city deficits, underfundedprivate pensions, etc.
1.每个美国人都是“负翁”，因为你导致了政府财政赤字，医疗保险，社会保障资金，处方药，联邦存款保险公司，学生贷款，抵押贷款，信用卡余额，州/县/城政府赤字，私人养老金等等统统没有钱。
2. U.S.military budget is more than the rest of world combined. Under currentfinancial burden, I am not sure how long can U.S. afford this kind of spending.
2.美国军费预算比全世界其他国家加起来还要多。根据现有财政情况，我不知道现在这样的支出能维持多少时间。
3. Several years ago, I saw U.S. army recruit stations infront of Home Depot hardware stores, they are giving out $25,000 signup bonus,help you to pass High School Equivalent test to get you into the Army, help youto get U.S. legal immigration, free college education, all sorts of goodies tojoin.
3.几年前，我看见一个设在家得宝五金店前的美国军队招募站，他们提供了25000美元来帮助你通过高中同等学力测试，这样你就能进军队了，帮助你到美国合法移民，免费大学教育，只要你参军就有各种好处。
4. On the other hand, everyone want to join Chinese armyin my Chinese village, they must pass all sorts of tests and physical exams,hundreds of people line up to get interviewed, Chinese army pickup only oneperson from my village in 3 years.
4.同时，另外一边，在我所在的中国村庄里每个人都想参军，他们必须参军所有的考试和体能测试，成百上千人排队去参军面试，在3年里，中国军队才从我的村庄里挑了一个人。
亚洲的力量平衡,中国的军事崛起
作者:棉花糖 发布日期:2012-04-08 浏览:12232
正文翻译:NO MATTER how often China hasemphasised the idea of a peaceful rise, the pace and nature of its militarymodernisation inevitably cause alarm. As Americaand the big European powers reduce their defence spending, China lookslikely to maintain the past decade’s increases of about 12% a year. Even thoughits defence budget is less than a quarter the size of America’s today, China’s generals are ambitious. Thecountry is on course to become the world’s largest military spender in just 20years or so (see article).
Much of its effort is aimed atdeterring America fromintervening in a future crisis over Taiwan. Chinais investing heavily in “asymmetric capabilities” designed to blunt America’sonce-overwhelming capacity to project power in the region. This“anti-access/area denial” approach includes thousands of accurate land-basedballistic and cruise missiles, modern jets with anti-ship missiles, a fleet ofsubmarines (both conventionally and nuclear-powered), long-range radars andsurveillance satellites, and cyber and space weapons intended to “blind”American forces. Most talked about is a new ballistic missile said to be ableto put a manoeuvrable warhead onto the deck of an aircraft-carrier 2,700km(1,700 miles) out at sea.
不管中国如何反复强调我要和平崛起，她军队现代化的步伐和意向不可避免的造成周边恐慌。当美国和大欧洲在裁剪他们的军事开销时，中国近十年来一直保持了每年12%的军费增长。尽管她的军费预算依然不到美国的四分之一，但是中国的将军们野心勃勃。再过20年左右，这个国家将成为全球军费最多的国家。她大多数的努力旨在台海危机爆发后阻止美国的军事力量介入。中国大力投资在“不对称力量”，用于削弱美国投射于该地区的一次性压倒性力量。
这种“反介入/反地区投射”的方针包含了成千上万个精确制导的陆基弹道导弹和巡航导弹，现代化战斗机和反舰导弹，潜艇部队（常规的和核动力的），远程雷达和间谍卫星，用于致盲美国卫星的网络和太空武器。现在最受关注的一种新型岸舰导弹，据说它的弹头能在空中机动，并能击中2700公里（1700英里）外航母的甲板。
China says all this is defensive, but itstactical doctrines emphasise striking first if it must. Accordingly, China aims to be able to launch disablingattacks on American bases in the western Pacific and push America’s carrier groups beyond what it callsthe “first island chain”, sealing off the Yellow Sea, South China Sea and EastChina Sea inside an arc running from the Aleutians in the north to Borneo in the south. Were Taiwanto attempt formal secession from the mainland, China could launch a series ofpre-emptive strikes to delay American intervention and raise its costprohibitively.
中国说这些统统都是用来自卫的，但是她的战术理论强调的是，如果必要的话必须先发制人。因此，中国的目标是能发动对西太平美国基地的毁灭性打击，把美国的航母战斗群挤出所谓的第一岛链，封锁北至阿留申群岛南至婆罗洲之间的黄海，南中国海，东中国海。当台湾打算正式从大陆分裂的话，中国就能发动一系列先发制人的打击来延缓美国的干预，大大增加美国干预的代价以使美国望而祛步。
This has already had an effect on China’sneighbours, who fear that it will draw them into its sphere of influence. Japan, South Korea,India and even Australia arequietly spending more on defence, especially on their navies. Barack Obama’snew “pivot” towards Asia includes a clear signal that America willstill guarantee its allies’ security. This week a contingent of 200 US marines arrived in Darwin,while India took formalcharge of a nuclear submarine, leased from Russia.
这些同时对中国的邻居造成了一些影响，他们担心被纳入中国的势力范围。日本，韩国，印度甚至澳大利亚都在默默的加军费，特别是增加他们的海军军费。奥巴马针对亚洲的新“支点”概念传达了一个明确的信息，美国会保护他盟友们的安全。本周有200名美国海军陆战队驻扎澳大利亚的达尔文港，印度正式支付从俄罗斯租用的核潜艇。
En garde
The prospect of an Asian arms raceis genuinely frightening, but prudent concern about China’s build-up must not lapseinto hysteria. For the moment at least, China is far less formidable thanhawks on both sides claim. Its armed forces have had no real combat experiencefor more than 30 years, whereas America’shave been fighting, and learning, constantly. The capacity of the People’sLiberation Army (PLA) for complex joint operations in a hostile environment isuntested. China’sformidable missile and submarine forces would pose a threat to American carriergroups near its coast, but not farther out to sea for some time at least.Blue-water operations for China’snavy are limited to anti-piracy patrolling in the Indian Ocean and the rescueof Chinese workers from war-torn Libya. Two or three smallaircraft-carriers may soon be deployed, but learning to use them will take manyyears. Nobody knows if the “carrier-killer” missile can be made to work.
亚洲陷入军备竞赛的前景是非常可怕的，但是要谨慎审视中国的军备建设而别陷入歇斯底里。至少现在，中国还远不如两边鹰派们所宣称的那么强大。中国的军队30多年没有打仗的经验了，而美国还在持续不断的打仗和学习。解放军在复杂恶劣环境里的联合作战力量并没有得到检验。中国强大的导弹和潜艇力量会在她自己的沿海威胁美国的航母，但是一旦进入大洋那就未必了。中国的蓝水海军行动还仅限于在印度洋巡逻反海盗，在战乱的利比亚援救中国工人。2到3艘小型航母也许会马上入役，但是要学习怎么使用它们则要花上很多年。现在人们还不知道“航母杀手”导弹是否可以投入使用。
As for China’s longer-term intentions, theWest should acknowledge that it is hardly unnatural for a rising power toaspire to have armed forces that reflect its growing economic clout. China consistently devotes a bit over 2% of GDPto defence—about the same as Britainand France and half of what America spends.That share may fall if Chinese growth slows or the government faces demands formore social spending. Chinamight well use force to stop Taiwanfrom formally seceding. Yet, apart from claims over the virtually uninhabitedSpratly and Paracel Islands, China is notexpansionist: it already has its empire. Its policy of non-interference in theaffairs of other states constrains what it can do itself.
在中国长远意图上讲，西方国家应该意识到一个上升的强权国家在他经济力量增长的同时渴望军事力量是很自然的事情。中国一直贯彻只投入占GDP2%对一点的钱到军费里—跟英国和法国一样只占美国的一半。而这个比例还可能会下降，当中国经济放缓时政府会面临很多其他的社会性开销。中国也许会很好的利用她的力量来阻止台湾的正式分裂。然而，除开中国生成拥有那些几乎荒无人烟的南沙和西沙群岛，中国并非是扩张主义者，她已经拥有了整个帝国。她的互不干涉他国内政的政策限制她的行为。
The trouble is that China’s intentionsare so unpredictable. On the one hand China is increasingly willing toengage with global institutions. Unlike the old Soviet Union, it has a stake in the liberal world economic order, and nointerest in exporting a competing ideology. The Communist Party’s legitimacydepends on being able to honour its promise of prosperity. A cold war with theWest would undermine that. On the other hand, China engages with the rest of theworld on its own terms, suspicious of institutions it believes are run to serveWestern interests. And its assertiveness, particularly in maritime territorialdisputes, has grown with its might. The dangers of military miscalculation aretoo high for comfort.
现在比较苦恼的是不知道中国的意图。一方面中国积极希望参与全球化机构。不像前苏联，她在自由世界的经济体系内有自己的一份，而且对出口意识形态毫无兴趣。共产党的执政合法性取决于它是否能维持它承诺的繁荣。而与西方进行冷战会削弱繁荣（以致动摇执政合法性）。另一方面，中国以与世界其他地方不同的方式参与，怀疑那些机构都是为西方利益服务的。而且她的自信心，特别是当在海上领海冲突时，随着军事力量的增长而增长。军事误判的代价太高了。
How to avoid accidents
如何避免意外
It is in China’s interests to build confidence with itsneighbours, reduce mutual strategic distrust with America and demonstrate itswillingness to abide by global norms. A good start would be to submitterritorial disputes over islands in the East and South China Seas to internationalarbitration. Another step would be to strengthen promising regional bodies suchas the East Asian Summit and ASEAN Plus Three. Above all, Chinese generalsshould talk far more with American ones. At present, despite much Pentagonprompting, contacts between the two armed forces are limited, tightly controlledby the PLA and ritually frozen by politicians whenever they want to “punish”America—usually because of a tiff over Taiwan.
建立与邻邦的信心，降低与美国之间战略的互不信任，证明她愿意遵守全球规范是符合中国的利益的。把东海和南海的岛屿争端提交给国际仲裁会是一个良好的开端。另一步是加强地方区域机构，像东亚峰会，东南亚+3（中日韩）。除了以上所有的，中国的将军们应该和美国的将军们加强交流。目前，尽管五角大厦一直在推动军事交流，但是总是被解放军给严格限制，有时候还会被政治家们给冻结了，当他们想“惩罚”美国的时候—通常是因为对台军售。
America’s response should mix military strengthwith diplomatic subtlety. It must retain the ability to project force in Asia:to do otherwise would feed Chinese hawks’ belief that America is adeclining power which can be shouldered aside. But it can do more to counter China’sparanoia. To his credit, Mr Obama has sought to lower tensions over Taiwan andmade it clear that he does not want to contain China (far less encircle it asChinese nationalists fear). Americamust resist the temptation to make every security issue a test of China’s goodfaith. There are bound to be disagreements between the superpowers; and if China cannotpursue its own interests within the liberal world order, it will become moreawkward and potentially belligerent. That is when things could get nasty.
美国的反应通常是军事力量与外交的微妙结合。美国必须坚持在亚洲的力量：不然会加强中国鹰派的信念，他们认为美国是衰弱中的超级大国是时候靠边站了。但是美国应该再多做点来解除中国的偏执。奥巴马以他的信誉表示，他会缓解台湾紧张局势，同时明确表示不会遏制中国（不像中国民族主义者担心的那样包围中国）。美国必须抵制把每个安全问题都当做对中国善意的测试。超级大国之间难免会有分歧：但是如果中国不在自由世界的规矩下追求自己的利益，但是她会变成更尴尬而变成潜在交战国。那个时候事情就变的肮脏了。
评论翻译:
1.Connect The Dots April 4th, 16:25
Compare the Geo-Political-Military Threats of the United States vs China:
The USborders on Canada and Mexico. TheUS-Canadian Border is the the longest unguarded border in the world. The twonations are friends and brothers for over 200 years. There is no military orweapons. Mexicois the southern border. Mexicohas never been a military power. The biggest threat at the US Mexican border isillegal immigration, drug smuggling and Pancho Villa type outlaws. The US has theworld's most advanced military. It s a Superpower. And is the second thelargest nuclear force in the world.
比较下美国和中国的地缘政治和军事威胁：
美国是加拿大和墨西哥的邻国。美加边境是世界上最长的没有戒备的边境。两个国家当了朋友和兄弟长达200多年（译者注：吐槽下1814年加拿大的英军还烧了白宫呢）。那里没有武器和军队。墨西哥是南部边境。墨西哥从来不是军事强国。美墨边境的最大威胁是非法越境，走私毒品，和Pancho Villa（译者注：一个墨西哥起义军，被西方描述成杀人魔王）式的违法行为。美国有世界上最先进的军队。他是超级大国、他是地球上第二大的核武力量。
China shares borders with Russia,North Korea, India, and Pakistan, all of which are nuclearpowers. Russiais the world's largest nuclear power. It is still aggressive and empire driven.North Koreais the definition of a reclusive and unpredictable hermit kingdom. India is rivals with China for the 21st century. And India is locked in a nuclear standoff with Pakistan thatwill make the Cold War look like a short tiff.
中国与俄罗斯，朝鲜，印度，巴基斯坦相邻，以上国家都有核武器。俄罗斯是世界上核武最强国。他依然好战和帝国主义。朝鲜是个孤僻的，无法预测的隐士国度。印度是中国在21世纪的对手。印度和巴基斯坦陷入核僵局的对峙，就像一场小型冷战。
And Chinashares borders with Afghanistan,Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan,unstable former Soviet Republics struggling withterror and militant Islam. Up until last month Kazakhstan had enough plutonium tobuild their own nuclear weapons. Now Iran, one country away, is lookingto develop nuclear tipped missiles.
中国是阿富汗，塔吉克斯坦，吉尔吉斯斯坦和哈萨克斯坦那些不稳定的前苏联加盟国和有激进穆斯林与恐怖分子的邻国。上个月，哈萨克斯坦有了足够的鈈来制造核武器。伊朗，一个稍微远点的国家，在寻求发展高端能发射核弹头的导弹。
And Chinashares borders and has disputes and potential instability issues issues with Nepal, India,Mongolia, Vietnam, Laosand Myanmar.It has fought two savage wars with Vietnameven after Americaleft, and the Spratly isles may prove to be another fuse.
中国和尼泊尔，印度，蒙古，越南，老挝，缅甸相邻，并且边境上有隐患。在美国人走了后，中国教训了越南两次，南沙群岛的岛屿纷争是另外一个导火索。
And Chinafaces off with advanced weaponry a stones throw away from South Korea, Japan,Taiwan, and Singapore. TheJapanese Forces are the world's second most expensively equipped army, highlysophisticated and advanced. Within 2-5 years, if they wanted, South Korea, Japan,and Taiwan could alsodevelop nuclear arms to counter China.
同时中国和有先进装备的日本，韩国，台湾，新加坡只有一臂之遥。日本军队是全世界第二昂贵武器装备的军队，高度复杂和先进。如果他们需要，在2-5年内，韩国，日本，台湾会开发核武来对抗中国。
Throw in regional conflicts with Indonesia, Malaysian, Australia,Philippines and Timor. Not to mention Pirates.
还有印度尼西亚，马来西亚，澳大利亚，菲律宾和东帝汶等地区冲突，我还没说海盗呢。
And just about every country in Asia has some territorialand sovereignty or fishing disputes with China. Just being neighbors to Kimil-Song for 30 years is enough to drive your diplomats crazy!
几乎亚洲所有的国家都和中国有领土领海和渔业冲突。和金正恩当30年的邻居足够让你的外交官崩溃了。
And then finally consider the American Navy PacificFleet, the world's largest and most potent. More aircraft carriers can beassembled off the Chinese coast than the rest of the world combined. All atonce, a thousand aircraft can attack, some of which are stealth secret. One USSOhio Class Trident Submarine is the world's third most powerful nuclear force.Anti ballistic and anti satellite weapons. Smart bombs that can be deliveredworld wide 24/7/365 day or night in any weather.American special forces can sneak in your house by stealth helicopter, eat yourdinner and leave by submarine. And they sail around the Taiwan strait, both above and undersea. And American sailors drink andfeast in Taipeias honored guests.
最后我来说下美国的太平洋舰队，全世界最大最强的武装。部署在中国沿海的航母比美国部署在全世界其他地方加起来还要多。一次能发动一千架飞机进行袭击，还有一些绝密的东东。美国海军的俄亥俄级核潜艇是全世界第三大核武攻击力量。反导和反卫星武器。聪明蛋能在任何天气任何时间达到世界任何一个角落。美国的特种部队能用隐形直升机潜入你的房子，吃掉你的晚餐，然后坐潜艇走人。美国大兵能巡游台湾海峡，不管是从海面上还是海面下。美国大兵在台北以座上宾的姿态享受美食美酒。
China is in a bad neighborhood compared to America.
It needs a much larger military force because ofcircumstances. It would love to have Mexicoand Canada, but instead has North Korea, Vietnam,Myanmar, Russia, Afghanistan,Pakistan and India forneighbors.
China's Geopolitical situation is probably even worse than Israel in anArab sea.
中国的周边环境远比不上美国。因为这个环境，她需要一个更庞大的军队。她希望有墨西哥和加拿大这样的邻居，但是她的邻居是朝鲜，越南，缅甸，俄罗斯，阿富汗，巴基斯坦和印度。
中国的周边环境可比在阿拉伯地区的以色列差多了。
2.nkab April 4th, 19:45
Oh my God. When in the course of human development,...
when China’sper capita GDP being still only a tenth of America’s;
上帝啊，在人类发展的过程中。。。。
当中国的人均GDP还只有美国的10分之1的时候.
when the UShas been holding joint exercises with China'sneighbors with saber rattling and bullying, almost continuously, right in frontof China'sshores;
当美国持续参与和中国的邻国们在中国海岸前的大型军演的时候，不断的张牙舞爪和恐吓。
when Chinahas zero carrier battle group to park at its driveway and the US has 10 nuclear super carrier battle groupsplying waters at China’sdoor step and back waters;
当中国还没有一艘航母的时候，美国带着10个超级航母编队在中国的家门口巡弋。
when every member of BRIC has a carrier except China, even neighbor Thailand has got one;
当金砖之国都有航母的时候就中国没有，甚至泰国都有。
when Chinahas zero protection of its vital sea lanes with zero foreign base (the US has over 800foreign bases);
当中国没有一个海外基地来保护她重要的海上通道的时候，美国有800个海外基地。
when Chinais bombarded by incessant filing at WTO and bulling protectionist rhetoric andintimidation in the US;
当中国饱和性轰炸般的提交入WTO的申请的时候，受到美国贸易保护者的恐吓与欺凌。
when China is surrounded by "containment" inevery which way and every step of way, by US vassal Japan and semi vassal S.Korea from the east, semi-something Philippines and others like India from thesouth, with Australia joining the fray...;
当中国被各个方向各种角度所“遏制”的时候，是美国的附庸日本和半附庸韩国从东面，是半那个啥的菲律宾和某些人像印度从南面，还有澳大利亚他们参加遏制。
And you call all this China threatening? Not USthreatening?
所以你说这些就是中国威胁？而不是美国威胁？
And just when China is about to emerge out from pickingup its pieces of lives and to shaking off humiliation and near totaldevastation of war ravaged livelihoods by the Japanese aggression, and selfinflicted wounds of cultural revolution ;
then comes along the Economist seeing fit to call China “the paceand nature of its military modernization inevitably cause alarm”?
当中国从过去支离破碎的中崛起，摆脱日本侵略战争所蹂躏的屈辱，愈合文革造成的创伤。然后经济学人是这么来评价中国的，“她军事现代化的步伐和性质不可避免的造成了恐慌”
It is understandable that the West does not want to havea rising China,but why bother with such propaganda of fear? Who is kidding whom? And Who isthreatening whom?
As the Economist admits, “China is far less formidable thanhawks on both sides claim”. As such there’s absolutely no need for China to keep emphasizing the idea of a peacefulrise either, because there ain’t no other ways for China, except to rise peacefully. Andpeacefully it will rise.
西方不希望有一个崛起的中国这个完全可以理解，但是还到处宣传中国威胁论？开什么玩笑？到底是谁在威胁谁？
就像经济学人承认的“中国远没有两边鹰派所宣称的那么强大”。其实中国完全不需要反复强调和平崛起，因为对中国来说除了和平崛起，只能和平崛起。然后她会和平崛起的。
3.Jean Michel April 4th, 16:37
This article looks like a "commercial" for the US, UK,France and Germany to selltheir military hardware to other countries.
这篇文章看起来像是为美国英国法国德国出售武器给其他国家的“商业广告”。
原创翻译:http://www.ltaaa.com/ 译者:棉花糖 转载请注明出处
4.KACEY1 April 4th, 16:29
There are several thoughts come to my mind:
以下是我的一些观点：
1. Every American is a ‘negative’ millionaire, if you addthe federal government deficits, underfunded Medicare, underfunded socialsecurity, underfunded prescription drugs, underfunded FDIC, student loans,mortgages, credit card balances, state/county/city deficits, underfundedprivate pensions, etc.
1.每个美国人都是“负翁”，因为你导致了政府财政赤字，医疗保险，社会保障资金，处方药，联邦存款保险公司，学生贷款，抵押贷款，信用卡余额，州/县/城政府赤字，私人养老金等等统统没有钱。
2. U.S.military budget is more than the rest of world combined. Under currentfinancial burden, I am not sure how long can U.S. afford this kind of spending.
2.美国军费预算比全世界其他国家加起来还要多。根据现有财政情况，我不知道现在这样的支出能维持多少时间。
3. Several years ago, I saw U.S. army recruit stations infront of Home Depot hardware stores, they are giving out $25,000 signup bonus,help you to pass High School Equivalent test to get you into the Army, help youto get U.S. legal immigration, free college education, all sorts of goodies tojoin.
3.几年前，我看见一个设在家得宝五金店前的美国军队招募站，他们提供了25000美元来帮助你通过高中同等学力测试，这样你就能进军队了，帮助你到美国合法移民，免费大学教育，只要你参军就有各种好处。
4. On the other hand, everyone want to join Chinese armyin my Chinese village, they must pass all sorts of tests and physical exams,hundreds of people line up to get interviewed, Chinese army pickup only oneperson from my village in 3 years.
4.同时，另外一边，在我所在的中国村庄里每个人都想参军，他们必须参军所有的考试和体能测试，成百上千人排队去参军面试，在3年里，中国军队才从我的村庄里挑了一个人。
作者:棉花糖 发布日期:2012-04-08 浏览:12232
正文翻译:NO MATTER how often China hasemphasised the idea of a peaceful rise, the pace and nature of its militarymodernisation inevitably cause alarm. As Americaand the big European powers reduce their defence spending, China lookslikely to maintain the past decade’s increases of about 12% a year. Even thoughits defence budget is less than a quarter the size of America’s today, China’s generals are ambitious. Thecountry is on course to become the world’s largest military spender in just 20years or so (see article).
Much of its effort is aimed atdeterring America fromintervening in a future crisis over Taiwan. Chinais investing heavily in “asymmetric capabilities” designed to blunt America’sonce-overwhelming capacity to project power in the region. This“anti-access/area denial” approach includes thousands of accurate land-basedballistic and cruise missiles, modern jets with anti-ship missiles, a fleet ofsubmarines (both conventionally and nuclear-powered), long-range radars andsurveillance satellites, and cyber and space weapons intended to “blind”American forces. Most talked about is a new ballistic missile said to be ableto put a manoeuvrable warhead onto the deck of an aircraft-carrier 2,700km(1,700 miles) out at sea.
不管中国如何反复强调我要和平崛起，她军队现代化的步伐和意向不可避免的造成周边恐慌。当美国和大欧洲在裁剪他们的军事开销时，中国近十年来一直保持了每年12%的军费增长。尽管她的军费预算依然不到美国的四分之一，但是中国的将军们野心勃勃。再过20年左右，这个国家将成为全球军费最多的国家。她大多数的努力旨在台海危机爆发后阻止美国的军事力量介入。中国大力投资在“不对称力量”，用于削弱美国投射于该地区的一次性压倒性力量。
这种“反介入/反地区投射”的方针包含了成千上万个精确制导的陆基弹道导弹和巡航导弹，现代化战斗机和反舰导弹，潜艇部队（常规的和核动力的），远程雷达和间谍卫星，用于致盲美国卫星的网络和太空武器。现在最受关注的一种新型岸舰导弹，据说它的弹头能在空中机动，并能击中2700公里（1700英里）外航母的甲板。
China says all this is defensive, but itstactical doctrines emphasise striking first if it must. Accordingly, China aims to be able to launch disablingattacks on American bases in the western Pacific and push America’s carrier groups beyond what it callsthe “first island chain”, sealing off the Yellow Sea, South China Sea and EastChina Sea inside an arc running from the Aleutians in the north to Borneo in the south. Were Taiwanto attempt formal secession from the mainland, China could launch a series ofpre-emptive strikes to delay American intervention and raise its costprohibitively.
中国说这些统统都是用来自卫的，但是她的战术理论强调的是，如果必要的话必须先发制人。因此，中国的目标是能发动对西太平美国基地的毁灭性打击，把美国的航母战斗群挤出所谓的第一岛链，封锁北至阿留申群岛南至婆罗洲之间的黄海，南中国海，东中国海。当台湾打算正式从大陆分裂的话，中国就能发动一系列先发制人的打击来延缓美国的干预，大大增加美国干预的代价以使美国望而祛步。
This has already had an effect on China’sneighbours, who fear that it will draw them into its sphere of influence. Japan, South Korea,India and even Australia arequietly spending more on defence, especially on their navies. Barack Obama’snew “pivot” towards Asia includes a clear signal that America willstill guarantee its allies’ security. This week a contingent of 200 US marines arrived in Darwin,while India took formalcharge of a nuclear submarine, leased from Russia.
这些同时对中国的邻居造成了一些影响，他们担心被纳入中国的势力范围。日本，韩国，印度甚至澳大利亚都在默默的加军费，特别是增加他们的海军军费。奥巴马针对亚洲的新“支点”概念传达了一个明确的信息，美国会保护他盟友们的安全。本周有200名美国海军陆战队驻扎澳大利亚的达尔文港，印度正式支付从俄罗斯租用的核潜艇。
En garde
The prospect of an Asian arms raceis genuinely frightening, but prudent concern about China’s build-up must not lapseinto hysteria. For the moment at least, China is far less formidable thanhawks on both sides claim. Its armed forces have had no real combat experiencefor more than 30 years, whereas America’shave been fighting, and learning, constantly. The capacity of the People’sLiberation Army (PLA) for complex joint operations in a hostile environment isuntested. China’sformidable missile and submarine forces would pose a threat to American carriergroups near its coast, but not farther out to sea for some time at least.Blue-water operations for China’snavy are limited to anti-piracy patrolling in the Indian Ocean and the rescueof Chinese workers from war-torn Libya. Two or three smallaircraft-carriers may soon be deployed, but learning to use them will take manyyears. Nobody knows if the “carrier-killer” missile can be made to work.
亚洲陷入军备竞赛的前景是非常可怕的，但是要谨慎审视中国的军备建设而别陷入歇斯底里。至少现在，中国还远不如两边鹰派们所宣称的那么强大。中国的军队30多年没有打仗的经验了，而美国还在持续不断的打仗和学习。解放军在复杂恶劣环境里的联合作战力量并没有得到检验。中国强大的导弹和潜艇力量会在她自己的沿海威胁美国的航母，但是一旦进入大洋那就未必了。中国的蓝水海军行动还仅限于在印度洋巡逻反海盗，在战乱的利比亚援救中国工人。2到3艘小型航母也许会马上入役，但是要学习怎么使用它们则要花上很多年。现在人们还不知道“航母杀手”导弹是否可以投入使用。
As for China’s longer-term intentions, theWest should acknowledge that it is hardly unnatural for a rising power toaspire to have armed forces that reflect its growing economic clout. China consistently devotes a bit over 2% of GDPto defence—about the same as Britainand France and half of what America spends.That share may fall if Chinese growth slows or the government faces demands formore social spending. Chinamight well use force to stop Taiwanfrom formally seceding. Yet, apart from claims over the virtually uninhabitedSpratly and Paracel Islands, China is notexpansionist: it already has its empire. Its policy of non-interference in theaffairs of other states constrains what it can do itself.
在中国长远意图上讲，西方国家应该意识到一个上升的强权国家在他经济力量增长的同时渴望军事力量是很自然的事情。中国一直贯彻只投入占GDP2%对一点的钱到军费里—跟英国和法国一样只占美国的一半。而这个比例还可能会下降，当中国经济放缓时政府会面临很多其他的社会性开销。中国也许会很好的利用她的力量来阻止台湾的正式分裂。然而，除开中国生成拥有那些几乎荒无人烟的南沙和西沙群岛，中国并非是扩张主义者，她已经拥有了整个帝国。她的互不干涉他国内政的政策限制她的行为。
The trouble is that China’s intentionsare so unpredictable. On the one hand China is increasingly willing toengage with global institutions. Unlike the old Soviet Union, it has a stake in the liberal world economic order, and nointerest in exporting a competing ideology. The Communist Party’s legitimacydepends on being able to honour its promise of prosperity. A cold war with theWest would undermine that. On the other hand, China engages with the rest of theworld on its own terms, suspicious of institutions it believes are run to serveWestern interests. And its assertiveness, particularly in maritime territorialdisputes, has grown with its might. The dangers of military miscalculation aretoo high for comfort.
现在比较苦恼的是不知道中国的意图。一方面中国积极希望参与全球化机构。不像前苏联，她在自由世界的经济体系内有自己的一份，而且对出口意识形态毫无兴趣。共产党的执政合法性取决于它是否能维持它承诺的繁荣。而与西方进行冷战会削弱繁荣（以致动摇执政合法性）。另一方面，中国以与世界其他地方不同的方式参与，怀疑那些机构都是为西方利益服务的。而且她的自信心，特别是当在海上领海冲突时，随着军事力量的增长而增长。军事误判的代价太高了。
How to avoid accidents
如何避免意外
It is in China’s interests to build confidence with itsneighbours, reduce mutual strategic distrust with America and demonstrate itswillingness to abide by global norms. A good start would be to submitterritorial disputes over islands in the East and South China Seas to internationalarbitration. Another step would be to strengthen promising regional bodies suchas the East Asian Summit and ASEAN Plus Three. Above all, Chinese generalsshould talk far more with American ones. At present, despite much Pentagonprompting, contacts between the two armed forces are limited, tightly controlledby the PLA and ritually frozen by politicians whenever they want to “punish”America—usually because of a tiff over Taiwan.
建立与邻邦的信心，降低与美国之间战略的互不信任，证明她愿意遵守全球规范是符合中国的利益的。把东海和南海的岛屿争端提交给国际仲裁会是一个良好的开端。另一步是加强地方区域机构，像东亚峰会，东南亚+3（中日韩）。除了以上所有的，中国的将军们应该和美国的将军们加强交流。目前，尽管五角大厦一直在推动军事交流，但是总是被解放军给严格限制，有时候还会被政治家们给冻结了，当他们想“惩罚”美国的时候—通常是因为对台军售。
America’s response should mix military strengthwith diplomatic subtlety. It must retain the ability to project force in Asia:to do otherwise would feed Chinese hawks’ belief that America is adeclining power which can be shouldered aside. But it can do more to counter China’sparanoia. To his credit, Mr Obama has sought to lower tensions over Taiwan andmade it clear that he does not want to contain China (far less encircle it asChinese nationalists fear). Americamust resist the temptation to make every security issue a test of China’s goodfaith. There are bound to be disagreements between the superpowers; and if China cannotpursue its own interests within the liberal world order, it will become moreawkward and potentially belligerent. That is when things could get nasty.
美国的反应通常是军事力量与外交的微妙结合。美国必须坚持在亚洲的力量：不然会加强中国鹰派的信念，他们认为美国是衰弱中的超级大国是时候靠边站了。但是美国应该再多做点来解除中国的偏执。奥巴马以他的信誉表示，他会缓解台湾紧张局势，同时明确表示不会遏制中国（不像中国民族主义者担心的那样包围中国）。美国必须抵制把每个安全问题都当做对中国善意的测试。超级大国之间难免会有分歧：但是如果中国不在自由世界的规矩下追求自己的利益，但是她会变成更尴尬而变成潜在交战国。那个时候事情就变的肮脏了。
评论翻译:
1.Connect The Dots April 4th, 16:25
Compare the Geo-Political-Military Threats of the United States vs China:
The USborders on Canada and Mexico. TheUS-Canadian Border is the the longest unguarded border in the world. The twonations are friends and brothers for over 200 years. There is no military orweapons. Mexicois the southern border. Mexicohas never been a military power. The biggest threat at the US Mexican border isillegal immigration, drug smuggling and Pancho Villa type outlaws. The US has theworld's most advanced military. It s a Superpower. And is the second thelargest nuclear force in the world.
比较下美国和中国的地缘政治和军事威胁：
美国是加拿大和墨西哥的邻国。美加边境是世界上最长的没有戒备的边境。两个国家当了朋友和兄弟长达200多年（译者注：吐槽下1814年加拿大的英军还烧了白宫呢）。那里没有武器和军队。墨西哥是南部边境。墨西哥从来不是军事强国。美墨边境的最大威胁是非法越境，走私毒品，和Pancho Villa（译者注：一个墨西哥起义军，被西方描述成杀人魔王）式的违法行为。美国有世界上最先进的军队。他是超级大国、他是地球上第二大的核武力量。
China shares borders with Russia,North Korea, India, and Pakistan, all of which are nuclearpowers. Russiais the world's largest nuclear power. It is still aggressive and empire driven.North Koreais the definition of a reclusive and unpredictable hermit kingdom. India is rivals with China for the 21st century. And India is locked in a nuclear standoff with Pakistan thatwill make the Cold War look like a short tiff.
中国与俄罗斯，朝鲜，印度，巴基斯坦相邻，以上国家都有核武器。俄罗斯是世界上核武最强国。他依然好战和帝国主义。朝鲜是个孤僻的，无法预测的隐士国度。印度是中国在21世纪的对手。印度和巴基斯坦陷入核僵局的对峙，就像一场小型冷战。
And Chinashares borders with Afghanistan,Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan,unstable former Soviet Republics struggling withterror and militant Islam. Up until last month Kazakhstan had enough plutonium tobuild their own nuclear weapons. Now Iran, one country away, is lookingto develop nuclear tipped missiles.
中国是阿富汗，塔吉克斯坦，吉尔吉斯斯坦和哈萨克斯坦那些不稳定的前苏联加盟国和有激进穆斯林与恐怖分子的邻国。上个月，哈萨克斯坦有了足够的鈈来制造核武器。伊朗，一个稍微远点的国家，在寻求发展高端能发射核弹头的导弹。
And Chinashares borders and has disputes and potential instability issues issues with Nepal, India,Mongolia, Vietnam, Laosand Myanmar.It has fought two savage wars with Vietnameven after Americaleft, and the Spratly isles may prove to be another fuse.
中国和尼泊尔，印度，蒙古，越南，老挝，缅甸相邻，并且边境上有隐患。在美国人走了后，中国教训了越南两次，南沙群岛的岛屿纷争是另外一个导火索。
And Chinafaces off with advanced weaponry a stones throw away from South Korea, Japan,Taiwan, and Singapore. TheJapanese Forces are the world's second most expensively equipped army, highlysophisticated and advanced. Within 2-5 years, if they wanted, South Korea, Japan,and Taiwan could alsodevelop nuclear arms to counter China.
同时中国和有先进装备的日本，韩国，台湾，新加坡只有一臂之遥。日本军队是全世界第二昂贵武器装备的军队，高度复杂和先进。如果他们需要，在2-5年内，韩国，日本，台湾会开发核武来对抗中国。
Throw in regional conflicts with Indonesia, Malaysian, Australia,Philippines and Timor. Not to mention Pirates.
还有印度尼西亚，马来西亚，澳大利亚，菲律宾和东帝汶等地区冲突，我还没说海盗呢。
And just about every country in Asia has some territorialand sovereignty or fishing disputes with China. Just being neighbors to Kimil-Song for 30 years is enough to drive your diplomats crazy!
几乎亚洲所有的国家都和中国有领土领海和渔业冲突。和金正恩当30年的邻居足够让你的外交官崩溃了。
And then finally consider the American Navy PacificFleet, the world's largest and most potent. More aircraft carriers can beassembled off the Chinese coast than the rest of the world combined. All atonce, a thousand aircraft can attack, some of which are stealth secret. One USSOhio Class Trident Submarine is the world's third most powerful nuclear force.Anti ballistic and anti satellite weapons. Smart bombs that can be deliveredworld wide 24/7/365 day or night in any weather.American special forces can sneak in your house by stealth helicopter, eat yourdinner and leave by submarine. And they sail around the Taiwan strait, both above and undersea. And American sailors drink andfeast in Taipeias honored guests.
最后我来说下美国的太平洋舰队，全世界最大最强的武装。部署在中国沿海的航母比美国部署在全世界其他地方加起来还要多。一次能发动一千架飞机进行袭击，还有一些绝密的东东。美国海军的俄亥俄级核潜艇是全世界第三大核武攻击力量。反导和反卫星武器。聪明蛋能在任何天气任何时间达到世界任何一个角落。美国的特种部队能用隐形直升机潜入你的房子，吃掉你的晚餐，然后坐潜艇走人。美国大兵能巡游台湾海峡，不管是从海面上还是海面下。美国大兵在台北以座上宾的姿态享受美食美酒。
China is in a bad neighborhood compared to America.
It needs a much larger military force because ofcircumstances. It would love to have Mexicoand Canada, but instead has North Korea, Vietnam,Myanmar, Russia, Afghanistan,Pakistan and India forneighbors.
China's Geopolitical situation is probably even worse than Israel in anArab sea.
中国的周边环境远比不上美国。因为这个环境，她需要一个更庞大的军队。她希望有墨西哥和加拿大这样的邻居，但是她的邻居是朝鲜，越南，缅甸，俄罗斯，阿富汗，巴基斯坦和印度。
中国的周边环境可比在阿拉伯地区的以色列差多了。
2.nkab April 4th, 19:45
Oh my God. When in the course of human development,...
when China’sper capita GDP being still only a tenth of America’s;
上帝啊，在人类发展的过程中。。。。
当中国的人均GDP还只有美国的10分之1的时候.
when the UShas been holding joint exercises with China'sneighbors with saber rattling and bullying, almost continuously, right in frontof China'sshores;
当美国持续参与和中国的邻国们在中国海岸前的大型军演的时候，不断的张牙舞爪和恐吓。
when Chinahas zero carrier battle group to park at its driveway and the US has 10 nuclear super carrier battle groupsplying waters at China’sdoor step and back waters;
当中国还没有一艘航母的时候，美国带着10个超级航母编队在中国的家门口巡弋。
when every member of BRIC has a carrier except China, even neighbor Thailand has got one;
当金砖之国都有航母的时候就中国没有，甚至泰国都有。
when Chinahas zero protection of its vital sea lanes with zero foreign base (the US has over 800foreign bases);
当中国没有一个海外基地来保护她重要的海上通道的时候，美国有800个海外基地。
when Chinais bombarded by incessant filing at WTO and bulling protectionist rhetoric andintimidation in the US;
当中国饱和性轰炸般的提交入WTO的申请的时候，受到美国贸易保护者的恐吓与欺凌。
when China is surrounded by "containment" inevery which way and every step of way, by US vassal Japan and semi vassal S.Korea from the east, semi-something Philippines and others like India from thesouth, with Australia joining the fray...;
当中国被各个方向各种角度所“遏制”的时候，是美国的附庸日本和半附庸韩国从东面，是半那个啥的菲律宾和某些人像印度从南面，还有澳大利亚他们参加遏制。
And you call all this China threatening? Not USthreatening?
所以你说这些就是中国威胁？而不是美国威胁？
And just when China is about to emerge out from pickingup its pieces of lives and to shaking off humiliation and near totaldevastation of war ravaged livelihoods by the Japanese aggression, and selfinflicted wounds of cultural revolution ;
then comes along the Economist seeing fit to call China “the paceand nature of its military modernization inevitably cause alarm”?
当中国从过去支离破碎的中崛起，摆脱日本侵略战争所蹂躏的屈辱，愈合文革造成的创伤。然后经济学人是这么来评价中国的，“她军事现代化的步伐和性质不可避免的造成了恐慌”
It is understandable that the West does not want to havea rising China,but why bother with such propaganda of fear? Who is kidding whom? And Who isthreatening whom?
As the Economist admits, “China is far less formidable thanhawks on both sides claim”. As such there’s absolutely no need for China to keep emphasizing the idea of a peacefulrise either, because there ain’t no other ways for China, except to rise peacefully. Andpeacefully it will rise.
西方不希望有一个崛起的中国这个完全可以理解，但是还到处宣传中国威胁论？开什么玩笑？到底是谁在威胁谁？
就像经济学人承认的“中国远没有两边鹰派所宣称的那么强大”。其实中国完全不需要反复强调和平崛起，因为对中国来说除了和平崛起，只能和平崛起。然后她会和平崛起的。
3.Jean Michel April 4th, 16:37
This article looks like a "commercial" for the US, UK,France and Germany to selltheir military hardware to other countries.
这篇文章看起来像是为美国英国法国德国出售武器给其他国家的“商业广告”。
原创翻译:http://www.ltaaa.com/ 译者:棉花糖 转载请注明出处
4.KACEY1 April 4th, 16:29
There are several thoughts come to my mind:
以下是我的一些观点：
1. Every American is a ‘negative’ millionaire, if you addthe federal government deficits, underfunded Medicare, underfunded socialsecurity, underfunded prescription drugs, underfunded FDIC, student loans,mortgages, credit card balances, state/county/city deficits, underfundedprivate pensions, etc.
1.每个美国人都是“负翁”，因为你导致了政府财政赤字，医疗保险，社会保障资金，处方药，联邦存款保险公司，学生贷款，抵押贷款，信用卡余额，州/县/城政府赤字，私人养老金等等统统没有钱。
2. U.S.military budget is more than the rest of world combined. Under currentfinancial burden, I am not sure how long can U.S. afford this kind of spending.
2.美国军费预算比全世界其他国家加起来还要多。根据现有财政情况，我不知道现在这样的支出能维持多少时间。
3. Several years ago, I saw U.S. army recruit stations infront of Home Depot hardware stores, they are giving out $25,000 signup bonus,help you to pass High School Equivalent test to get you into the Army, help youto get U.S. legal immigration, free college education, all sorts of goodies tojoin.
3.几年前，我看见一个设在家得宝五金店前的美国军队招募站，他们提供了25000美元来帮助你通过高中同等学力测试，这样你就能进军队了，帮助你到美国合法移民，免费大学教育，只要你参军就有各种好处。
4. On the other hand, everyone want to join Chinese armyin my Chinese village, they must pass all sorts of tests and physical exams,hundreds of people line up to get interviewed, Chinese army pickup only oneperson from my village in 3 years.
4.同时，另外一边，在我所在的中国村庄里每个人都想参军，他们必须参军所有的考试和体能测试，成百上千人排队去参军面试，在3年里，中国军队才从我的村庄里挑了一个人。
亚洲的力量平衡,中国的军事崛起
作者:棉花糖 发布日期:2012-04-08 浏览:12232
正文翻译:NO MATTER how often China hasemphasised the idea of a peaceful rise, the pace and nature of its militarymodernisation inevitably cause alarm. As Americaand the big European powers reduce their defence spending, China lookslikely to maintain the past decade’s increases of about 12% a year. Even thoughits defence budget is less than a quarter the size of America’s today, China’s generals are ambitious. Thecountry is on course to become the world’s largest military spender in just 20years or so (see article).
Much of its effort is aimed atdeterring America fromintervening in a future crisis over Taiwan. Chinais investing heavily in “asymmetric capabilities” designed to blunt America’sonce-overwhelming capacity to project power in the region. This“anti-access/area denial” approach includes thousands of accurate land-basedballistic and cruise missiles, modern jets with anti-ship missiles, a fleet ofsubmarines (both conventionally and nuclear-powered), long-range radars andsurveillance satellites, and cyber and space weapons intended to “blind”American forces. Most talked about is a new ballistic missile said to be ableto put a manoeuvrable warhead onto the deck of an aircraft-carrier 2,700km(1,700 miles) out at sea.
不管中国如何反复强调我要和平崛起，她军队现代化的步伐和意向不可避免的造成周边恐慌。当美国和大欧洲在裁剪他们的军事开销时，中国近十年来一直保持了每年12%的军费增长。尽管她的军费预算依然不到美国的四分之一，但是中国的将军们野心勃勃。再过20年左右，这个国家将成为全球军费最多的国家。她大多数的努力旨在台海危机爆发后阻止美国的军事力量介入。中国大力投资在“不对称力量”，用于削弱美国投射于该地区的一次性压倒性力量。
这种“反介入/反地区投射”的方针包含了成千上万个精确制导的陆基弹道导弹和巡航导弹，现代化战斗机和反舰导弹，潜艇部队（常规的和核动力的），远程雷达和间谍卫星，用于致盲美国卫星的网络和太空武器。现在最受关注的一种新型岸舰导弹，据说它的弹头能在空中机动，并能击中2700公里（1700英里）外航母的甲板。
China says all this is defensive, but itstactical doctrines emphasise striking first if it must. Accordingly, China aims to be able to launch disablingattacks on American bases in the western Pacific and push America’s carrier groups beyond what it callsthe “first island chain”, sealing off the Yellow Sea, South China Sea and EastChina Sea inside an arc running from the Aleutians in the north to Borneo in the south. Were Taiwanto attempt formal secession from the mainland, China could launch a series ofpre-emptive strikes to delay American intervention and raise its costprohibitively.
中国说这些统统都是用来自卫的，但是她的战术理论强调的是，如果必要的话必须先发制人。因此，中国的目标是能发动对西太平美国基地的毁灭性打击，把美国的航母战斗群挤出所谓的第一岛链，封锁北至阿留申群岛南至婆罗洲之间的黄海，南中国海，东中国海。当台湾打算正式从大陆分裂的话，中国就能发动一系列先发制人的打击来延缓美国的干预，大大增加美国干预的代价以使美国望而祛步。
This has already had an effect on China’sneighbours, who fear that it will draw them into its sphere of influence. Japan, South Korea,India and even Australia arequietly spending more on defence, especially on their navies. Barack Obama’snew “pivot” towards Asia includes a clear signal that America willstill guarantee its allies’ security. This week a contingent of 200 US marines arrived in Darwin,while India took formalcharge of a nuclear submarine, leased from Russia.
这些同时对中国的邻居造成了一些影响，他们担心被纳入中国的势力范围。日本，韩国，印度甚至澳大利亚都在默默的加军费，特别是增加他们的海军军费。奥巴马针对亚洲的新“支点”概念传达了一个明确的信息，美国会保护他盟友们的安全。本周有200名美国海军陆战队驻扎澳大利亚的达尔文港，印度正式支付从俄罗斯租用的核潜艇。
En garde
The prospect of an Asian arms raceis genuinely frightening, but prudent concern about China’s build-up must not lapseinto hysteria. For the moment at least, China is far less formidable thanhawks on both sides claim. Its armed forces have had no real combat experiencefor more than 30 years, whereas America’shave been fighting, and learning, constantly. The capacity of the People’sLiberation Army (PLA) for complex joint operations in a hostile environment isuntested. China’sformidable missile and submarine forces would pose a threat to American carriergroups near its coast, but not farther out to sea for some time at least.Blue-water operations for China’snavy are limited to anti-piracy patrolling in the Indian Ocean and the rescueof Chinese workers from war-torn Libya. Two or three smallaircraft-carriers may soon be deployed, but learning to use them will take manyyears. Nobody knows if the “carrier-killer” missile can be made to work.
亚洲陷入军备竞赛的前景是非常可怕的，但是要谨慎审视中国的军备建设而别陷入歇斯底里。至少现在，中国还远不如两边鹰派们所宣称的那么强大。中国的军队30多年没有打仗的经验了，而美国还在持续不断的打仗和学习。解放军在复杂恶劣环境里的联合作战力量并没有得到检验。中国强大的导弹和潜艇力量会在她自己的沿海威胁美国的航母，但是一旦进入大洋那就未必了。中国的蓝水海军行动还仅限于在印度洋巡逻反海盗，在战乱的利比亚援救中国工人。2到3艘小型航母也许会马上入役，但是要学习怎么使用它们则要花上很多年。现在人们还不知道“航母杀手”导弹是否可以投入使用。
As for China’s longer-term intentions, theWest should acknowledge that it is hardly unnatural for a rising power toaspire to have armed forces that reflect its growing economic clout. China consistently devotes a bit over 2% of GDPto defence—about the same as Britainand France and half of what America spends.That share may fall if Chinese growth slows or the government faces demands formore social spending. Chinamight well use force to stop Taiwanfrom formally seceding. Yet, apart from claims over the virtually uninhabitedSpratly and Paracel Islands, China is notexpansionist: it already has its empire. Its policy of non-interference in theaffairs of other states constrains what it can do itself.
在中国长远意图上讲，西方国家应该意识到一个上升的强权国家在他经济力量增长的同时渴望军事力量是很自然的事情。中国一直贯彻只投入占GDP2%对一点的钱到军费里—跟英国和法国一样只占美国的一半。而这个比例还可能会下降，当中国经济放缓时政府会面临很多其他的社会性开销。中国也许会很好的利用她的力量来阻止台湾的正式分裂。然而，除开中国生成拥有那些几乎荒无人烟的南沙和西沙群岛，中国并非是扩张主义者，她已经拥有了整个帝国。她的互不干涉他国内政的政策限制她的行为。
The trouble is that China’s intentionsare so unpredictable. On the one hand China is increasingly willing toengage with global institutions. Unlike the old Soviet Union, it has a stake in the liberal world economic order, and nointerest in exporting a competing ideology. The Communist Party’s legitimacydepends on being able to honour its promise of prosperity. A cold war with theWest would undermine that. On the other hand, China engages with the rest of theworld on its own terms, suspicious of institutions it believes are run to serveWestern interests. And its assertiveness, particularly in maritime territorialdisputes, has grown with its might. The dangers of military miscalculation aretoo high for comfort.
现在比较苦恼的是不知道中国的意图。一方面中国积极希望参与全球化机构。不像前苏联，她在自由世界的经济体系内有自己的一份，而且对出口意识形态毫无兴趣。共产党的执政合法性取决于它是否能维持它承诺的繁荣。而与西方进行冷战会削弱繁荣（以致动摇执政合法性）。另一方面，中国以与世界其他地方不同的方式参与，怀疑那些机构都是为西方利益服务的。而且她的自信心，特别是当在海上领海冲突时，随着军事力量的增长而增长。军事误判的代价太高了。
How to avoid accidents
如何避免意外
It is in China’s interests to build confidence with itsneighbours, reduce mutual strategic distrust with America and demonstrate itswillingness to abide by global norms. A good start would be to submitterritorial disputes over islands in the East and South China Seas to internationalarbitration. Another step would be to strengthen promising regional bodies suchas the East Asian Summit and ASEAN Plus Three. Above all, Chinese generalsshould talk far more with American ones. At present, despite much Pentagonprompting, contacts between the two armed forces are limited, tightly controlledby the PLA and ritually frozen by politicians whenever they want to “punish”America—usually because of a tiff over Taiwan.
建立与邻邦的信心，降低与美国之间战略的互不信任，证明她愿意遵守全球规范是符合中国的利益的。把东海和南海的岛屿争端提交给国际仲裁会是一个良好的开端。另一步是加强地方区域机构，像东亚峰会，东南亚+3（中日韩）。除了以上所有的，中国的将军们应该和美国的将军们加强交流。目前，尽管五角大厦一直在推动军事交流，但是总是被解放军给严格限制，有时候还会被政治家们给冻结了，当他们想“惩罚”美国的时候—通常是因为对台军售。
America’s response should mix military strengthwith diplomatic subtlety. It must retain the ability to project force in Asia:to do otherwise would feed Chinese hawks’ belief that America is adeclining power which can be shouldered aside. But it can do more to counter China’sparanoia. To his credit, Mr Obama has sought to lower tensions over Taiwan andmade it clear that he does not want to contain China (far less encircle it asChinese nationalists fear). Americamust resist the temptation to make every security issue a test of China’s goodfaith. There are bound to be disagreements between the superpowers; and if China cannotpursue its own interests within the liberal world order, it will become moreawkward and potentially belligerent. That is when things could get nasty.
美国的反应通常是军事力量与外交的微妙结合。美国必须坚持在亚洲的力量：不然会加强中国鹰派的信念，他们认为美国是衰弱中的超级大国是时候靠边站了。但是美国应该再多做点来解除中国的偏执。奥巴马以他的信誉表示，他会缓解台湾紧张局势，同时明确表示不会遏制中国（不像中国民族主义者担心的那样包围中国）。美国必须抵制把每个安全问题都当做对中国善意的测试。超级大国之间难免会有分歧：但是如果中国不在自由世界的规矩下追求自己的利益，但是她会变成更尴尬而变成潜在交战国。那个时候事情就变的肮脏了。
评论翻译:
1.Connect The Dots April 4th, 16:25
Compare the Geo-Political-Military Threats of the United States vs China:
The USborders on Canada and Mexico. TheUS-Canadian Border is the the longest unguarded border in the world. The twonations are friends and brothers for over 200 years. There is no military orweapons. Mexicois the southern border. Mexicohas never been a military power. The biggest threat at the US Mexican border isillegal immigration, drug smuggling and Pancho Villa type outlaws. The US has theworld's most advanced military. It s a Superpower. And is the second thelargest nuclear force in the world.
比较下美国和中国的地缘政治和军事威胁：
美国是加拿大和墨西哥的邻国。美加边境是世界上最长的没有戒备的边境。两个国家当了朋友和兄弟长达200多年（译者注：吐槽下1814年加拿大的英军还烧了白宫呢）。那里没有武器和军队。墨西哥是南部边境。墨西哥从来不是军事强国。美墨边境的最大威胁是非法越境，走私毒品，和Pancho Villa（译者注：一个墨西哥起义军，被西方描述成杀人魔王）式的违法行为。美国有世界上最先进的军队。他是超级大国、他是地球上第二大的核武力量。
China shares borders with Russia,North Korea, India, and Pakistan, all of which are nuclearpowers. Russiais the world's largest nuclear power. It is still aggressive and empire driven.North Koreais the definition of a reclusive and unpredictable hermit kingdom. India is rivals with China for the 21st century. And India is locked in a nuclear standoff with Pakistan thatwill make the Cold War look like a short tiff.
中国与俄罗斯，朝鲜，印度，巴基斯坦相邻，以上国家都有核武器。俄罗斯是世界上核武最强国。他依然好战和帝国主义。朝鲜是个孤僻的，无法预测的隐士国度。印度是中国在21世纪的对手。印度和巴基斯坦陷入核僵局的对峙，就像一场小型冷战。
And Chinashares borders with Afghanistan,Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan,unstable former Soviet Republics struggling withterror and militant Islam. Up until last month Kazakhstan had enough plutonium tobuild their own nuclear weapons. Now Iran, one country away, is lookingto develop nuclear tipped missiles.
中国是阿富汗，塔吉克斯坦，吉尔吉斯斯坦和哈萨克斯坦那些不稳定的前苏联加盟国和有激进穆斯林与恐怖分子的邻国。上个月，哈萨克斯坦有了足够的鈈来制造核武器。伊朗，一个稍微远点的国家，在寻求发展高端能发射核弹头的导弹。
And Chinashares borders and has disputes and potential instability issues issues with Nepal, India,Mongolia, Vietnam, Laosand Myanmar.It has fought two savage wars with Vietnameven after Americaleft, and the Spratly isles may prove to be another fuse.
中国和尼泊尔，印度，蒙古，越南，老挝，缅甸相邻，并且边境上有隐患。在美国人走了后，中国教训了越南两次，南沙群岛的岛屿纷争是另外一个导火索。
And Chinafaces off with advanced weaponry a stones throw away from South Korea, Japan,Taiwan, and Singapore. TheJapanese Forces are the world's second most expensively equipped army, highlysophisticated and advanced. Within 2-5 years, if they wanted, South Korea, Japan,and Taiwan could alsodevelop nuclear arms to counter China.
同时中国和有先进装备的日本，韩国，台湾，新加坡只有一臂之遥。日本军队是全世界第二昂贵武器装备的军队，高度复杂和先进。如果他们需要，在2-5年内，韩国，日本，台湾会开发核武来对抗中国。
Throw in regional conflicts with Indonesia, Malaysian, Australia,Philippines and Timor. Not to mention Pirates.
还有印度尼西亚，马来西亚，澳大利亚，菲律宾和东帝汶等地区冲突，我还没说海盗呢。
And just about every country in Asia has some territorialand sovereignty or fishing disputes with China. Just being neighbors to Kimil-Song for 30 years is enough to drive your diplomats crazy!
几乎亚洲所有的国家都和中国有领土领海和渔业冲突。和金正恩当30年的邻居足够让你的外交官崩溃了。
And then finally consider the American Navy PacificFleet, the world's largest and most potent. More aircraft carriers can beassembled off the Chinese coast than the rest of the world combined. All atonce, a thousand aircraft can attack, some of which are stealth secret. One USSOhio Class Trident Submarine is the world's third most powerful nuclear force.Anti ballistic and anti satellite weapons. Smart bombs that can be deliveredworld wide 24/7/365 day or night in any weather.American special forces can sneak in your house by stealth helicopter, eat yourdinner and leave by submarine. And they sail around the Taiwan strait, both above and undersea. And American sailors drink andfeast in Taipeias honored guests.
最后我来说下美国的太平洋舰队，全世界最大最强的武装。部署在中国沿海的航母比美国部署在全世界其他地方加起来还要多。一次能发动一千架飞机进行袭击，还有一些绝密的东东。美国海军的俄亥俄级核潜艇是全世界第三大核武攻击力量。反导和反卫星武器。聪明蛋能在任何天气任何时间达到世界任何一个角落。美国的特种部队能用隐形直升机潜入你的房子，吃掉你的晚餐，然后坐潜艇走人。美国大兵能巡游台湾海峡，不管是从海面上还是海面下。美国大兵在台北以座上宾的姿态享受美食美酒。
China is in a bad neighborhood compared to America.
It needs a much larger military force because ofcircumstances. It would love to have Mexicoand Canada, but instead has North Korea, Vietnam,Myanmar, Russia, Afghanistan,Pakistan and India forneighbors.
China's Geopolitical situation is probably even worse than Israel in anArab sea.
中国的周边环境远比不上美国。因为这个环境，她需要一个更庞大的军队。她希望有墨西哥和加拿大这样的邻居，但是她的邻居是朝鲜，越南，缅甸，俄罗斯，阿富汗，巴基斯坦和印度。
中国的周边环境可比在阿拉伯地区的以色列差多了。
2.nkab April 4th, 19:45
Oh my God. When in the course of human development,...
when China’sper capita GDP being still only a tenth of America’s;
上帝啊，在人类发展的过程中。。。。
当中国的人均GDP还只有美国的10分之1的时候.
when the UShas been holding joint exercises with China'sneighbors with saber rattling and bullying, almost continuously, right in frontof China'sshores;
当美国持续参与和中国的邻国们在中国海岸前的大型军演的时候，不断的张牙舞爪和恐吓。
when Chinahas zero carrier battle group to park at its driveway and the US has 10 nuclear super carrier battle groupsplying waters at China’sdoor step and back waters;
当中国还没有一艘航母的时候，美国带着10个超级航母编队在中国的家门口巡弋。
when every member of BRIC has a carrier except China, even neighbor Thailand has got one;
当金砖之国都有航母的时候就中国没有，甚至泰国都有。
when Chinahas zero protection of its vital sea lanes with zero foreign base (the US has over 800foreign bases);
当中国没有一个海外基地来保护她重要的海上通道的时候，美国有800个海外基地。
when Chinais bombarded by incessant filing at WTO and bulling protectionist rhetoric andintimidation in the US;
当中国饱和性轰炸般的提交入WTO的申请的时候，受到美国贸易保护者的恐吓与欺凌。
when China is surrounded by "containment" inevery which way and every step of way, by US vassal Japan and semi vassal S.Korea from the east, semi-something Philippines and others like India from thesouth, with Australia joining the fray...;
当中国被各个方向各种角度所“遏制”的时候，是美国的附庸日本和半附庸韩国从东面，是半那个啥的菲律宾和某些人像印度从南面，还有澳大利亚他们参加遏制。
And you call all this China threatening? Not USthreatening?
所以你说这些就是中国威胁？而不是美国威胁？
And just when China is about to emerge out from pickingup its pieces of lives and to shaking off humiliation and near totaldevastation of war ravaged livelihoods by the Japanese aggression, and selfinflicted wounds of cultural revolution ;
then comes along the Economist seeing fit to call China “the paceand nature of its military modernization inevitably cause alarm”?
当中国从过去支离破碎的中崛起，摆脱日本侵略战争所蹂躏的屈辱，愈合文革造成的创伤。然后经济学人是这么来评价中国的，“她军事现代化的步伐和性质不可避免的造成了恐慌”
It is understandable that the West does not want to havea rising China,but why bother with such propaganda of fear? Who is kidding whom? And Who isthreatening whom?
As the Economist admits, “China is far less formidable thanhawks on both sides claim”. As such there’s absolutely no need for China to keep emphasizing the idea of a peacefulrise either, because there ain’t no other ways for China, except to rise peacefully. Andpeacefully it will rise.
西方不希望有一个崛起的中国这个完全可以理解，但是还到处宣传中国威胁论？开什么玩笑？到底是谁在威胁谁？
就像经济学人承认的“中国远没有两边鹰派所宣称的那么强大”。其实中国完全不需要反复强调和平崛起，因为对中国来说除了和平崛起，只能和平崛起。然后她会和平崛起的。
3.Jean Michel April 4th, 16:37
This article looks like a "commercial" for the US, UK,France and Germany to selltheir military hardware to other countries.
这篇文章看起来像是为美国英国法国德国出售武器给其他国家的“商业广告”。
原创翻译:http://www.ltaaa.com/ 译者:棉花糖 转载请注明出处
4.KACEY1 April 4th, 16:29
There are several thoughts come to my mind:
以下是我的一些观点：
1. Every American is a ‘negative’ millionaire, if you addthe federal government deficits, underfunded Medicare, underfunded socialsecurity, underfunded prescription drugs, underfunded FDIC, student loans,mortgages, credit card balances, state/county/city deficits, underfundedprivate pensions, etc.
1.每个美国人都是“负翁”，因为你导致了政府财政赤字，医疗保险，社会保障资金，处方药，联邦存款保险公司，学生贷款，抵押贷款，信用卡余额，州/县/城政府赤字，私人养老金等等统统没有钱。
2. U.S.military budget is more than the rest of world combined. Under currentfinancial burden, I am not sure how long can U.S. afford this kind of spending.
2.美国军费预算比全世界其他国家加起来还要多。根据现有财政情况，我不知道现在这样的支出能维持多少时间。
3. Several years ago, I saw U.S. army recruit stations infront of Home Depot hardware stores, they are giving out $25,000 signup bonus,help you to pass High School Equivalent test to get you into the Army, help youto get U.S. legal immigration, free college education, all sorts of goodies tojoin.
3.几年前，我看见一个设在家得宝五金店前的美国军队招募站，他们提供了25000美元来帮助你通过高中同等学力测试，这样你就能进军队了，帮助你到美国合法移民，免费大学教育，只要你参军就有各种好处。
4. On the other hand, everyone want to join Chinese armyin my Chinese village, they must pass all sorts of tests and physical exams,hundreds of people line up to get interviewed, Chinese army pickup only oneperson from my village in 3 years.
4.同时，另外一边，在我所在的中国村庄里每个人都想参军，他们必须参军所有的考试和体能测试，成百上千人排队去参军面试，在3年里，中国军队才从我的村庄里挑了一个人。
5. I have a renter in the San Francisco bay area, he is a medical doctor, an Indian from India, ranked O-6, like a Colonel, in charge ofa military hospital unit, he served two tours in Afghanistan,and two tours in Iraq.He stays in a veteran hospital every other year, while he is not in activeduty. He told me a lot of mistakes, wastes and inefficiency in U.S. military.
5.我在圣弗朗西斯科湾地区的房子有个租户，是个印度医生，排序是O-6。在一个军事医院有类似上校军衔。他服役时去了2次阿富汗和2次伊拉克。现在他退役了，在一家退役军人医院里。他告诉我美军是多么能犯错，多么浪费，多么废物。
6. U.S.is the world biggest debtor and Chinais the world biggest creditor.
6.美国是世界上最大的债务国，而中国是世界上最大的债权国。
7. I think the balance of power is shifting from the‘west’ to China,not only economically, also militarily.
7.我认为从西方转移到中国的力量可不仅仅是经济力量还有军事力量。
8. Several thousand years ago, Sun Tse, the militarygenius in his ‘art of war’ book said: “Know your enemy and know yourself andyou can fight a hundred battles without disaster”.
Frankly, this is what I see as a working stiff.
8.几千年前，孙子在他的军事指导书《孙子兵法》里写道“知己知彼方能百战不殆”.
老实说，这是我的座右铭。
5.Ohio April 4th, 16:39
There is no doubt that China can and will exercise controlover the waters to the first island chain. What does this mean in practice? Taiwan must come to a series of accomodationswith China,without necessarily abandoning its democracy, and without necessarily formallyfalling under the mainland government. Chinagains nothing from invading Taiwanexcept worldwide emnity and 50 years of distrust from its other neighbors. Onlya government desperate to distract its people with a nationalist cause would doso, but who knows? Argentinainvaded the Falklands. All it takes is onepoorly chosen Politburo.
毫无疑问，中国将能控制第一岛链所有的水域。但是在现实上有什么意义的？首先，台湾必须与中国进行一系列的和解，不需要去除它的民主，不需要被大陆政府形式上控制。中国侵略台湾除了得到全世界的仇视和邻国50年的不信任外什么都得不到。除非政府不顾一切想以一个民族主义的理由转移国内矛盾，但是，谁知道呢？阿根廷侵略马岛，但是这是中央政治局最傻的选择。
China can deny the use of the South China sea to othernations, but those other nations can deny the use of the South China sea to China for themost part as well. Acting tough yields nothing but tough actors. In the end,economic development of the sea benefits all parties, and lack of developmentbenefits none. Who receives the royalties for oil, fish, or other resources issecondary and negotiable. It's just business.
中国可以否认其他国家在南海使用权，但是其他国家也可以反过来这么对付中国。在一个糟糕的领域演出的只能是一个糟糕的演员。最后，这片海的开发能造福所有人，没有开发那么谁也不能受益。不管谁得到石油渔业或者其他资源的特许使用权都是次要的并可以转让的。
Looking further ahead, what about Pax America, thesystem of freeish capitalism and a preference for democratic liberalism in aworld where American military power reigns? As the 21st century progresses, China will havethe potential to challenge and change Pax Americana. Americamay slowly lose the means and the will to continue policing the world(certainly Europe already has). If the US retrenches, will Chinastep in to maintain order in Asia and beyond?Likely yes. Will a world system infused with more Chinese and fewer Americanvalues be an improvement? Perhaps (I'd venture probably not), but it depends onwhich Chinese values are infused. What will be the values that China exportsin a generation or two when it has the potential to be the world's mostpowerful nation?
看的在长远一点，关于大同美国（由美国控制下的世界和平），自由资本主义和自由民主主义的系统是由美国的军事力量来统治的？随着21世纪的发展，中国有这个潜力来挑战和改变大同美国。美国会慢慢失去控制这个世界的能力（当然欧洲已经失去了）。如果美国减少开支，中国会取而代之美国在亚洲的位子维持亚洲的秩序？看起来是的。在这个世界体系中注入更多的中国价值观而减少一点美国价值观是进步么？也许是（我认为大概不会去冒这个险），但是这取决于是注入什么样的中国价值观。当中国有潜力变成全世界最强之国时，中国会输出给1代人或者2代人什么样的价值观呢。
The American system was built and is maintained becauseit benefits America, butthat system has proved largely benign because the free trade and liberal valueson governance which benefited Americaallowed much of the world to grow wealthy and more free. A Chinese system ofworld governance based on today's Chinese values of governance would stressorder over freedom, economic order over creative destruction. I do not wishsuch a change. Let us hope that the character of China's rulers changes before theyhave the military and economic power to exercise a decisive influence on theworld's economic and political system.
美国体系能建立并维系是因为它让美国受益，但是这个体系已经被证明大体上是良性的是因为自由贸易和自由的价值观让美国的统治受益同时也让整个世界变得更加富裕并且自由。中国基于现在统治中国人的价值观来建立中国式的全球系统的话会强调纪律大于自由，经济秩序大于创造性的破坏。我不希望是这样的变化。我期望中国的统治者能改变一下他们想法，在他们的军事和经济力量能对这个世界的经济和政治体系造成决定性的影响之前。
6。Lotus_Maiden April 4th, 20:53
There's no reason why Chinashouldn't build up the military. America's constantly doing wargames with neighboring countries. How would the USlike it if China launcheswar games with Canada, Mexico or Latin Americanear it's shores. That would probably be the start of WW III...
Diplomacy is a good suggestion by the TE...but that's not the American politicsway, otherwise why would they send air craft carriers and do war games at the South China sea. Actions, not words please.
Americahave far less reason to build up its military, or keep the current size. Maybeif it re-sizes (if congress, the president and Republicans) allow it...yeah,not likely. Then it would seem like less of a threat, and a better relationshipcould be formed between the two countries.
But personally...ummmm...I don't think the Military Industrial Complexwill die out soon...at least not within this decade.
不让中国发展军事这没有道理吧。美国不断的和邻国玩军事演习。假如中国伙同加拿大和墨西哥在美国家门口玩军演，美国人会喜欢么。这也许就开始三战了。这篇文章里面提到的外交途径是不错选择，但是这不是美国的政治方式。不然的话他为什么把航母放在中国南海玩军演的呢。只有行动没有对话。
相反美国可没有理由维持现有规模的军队。也许他缩小规模（如果国会，总统或者共和党）得到允许的，是啊，不太可能。那么他会看起来不怎么有威胁，那么两国的关系会更好也说不定哦。但是，我个人认为，ummmmmm，我不认为军工综合体会马上淡出，起码近十年不可能。
原创翻译:http://www.ltaaa.com/ 译者:棉花糖 转载请注明出处
7.1-Dime AgentApril 5th, 04:47
As a response to the various people here labeling China as a "dictatorship" and why America should be afriad of a "dictatorship" increasing its military might:
China is not a "dictatorship." China does not have a dictator who holds absolute power. China, much like Russia, is actually an oligarchy where the 9 standing members of the Politburo plus the President hold most of the power.
But Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are, in contrast, dictatorships (the Kings of Saudi Arabia and the UAE legally hold absolute powers in their kingdoms), and yet America is happy to enter into close alliances with the governments of those two countries. As a point of comparsion, both China and Russia have far more elements of democracy than the Saudi Arabia and the UAE. (The NPC in China and Parlaiment in Russia vs no democracy at all in SA or the UAE.)
So as much as Americans love to claim that they are champions of democracy, by forming close alliances with true legal dictatorships in SA and the UAE while pursuing fear mongoring in the far-more democratic Russia and China (which also happen to be strategic rivals for the US), Americans really do show their massive hypocrisy, huh?
作为对很多人把中国贴上“独裁”的标签，这里我要对这些人做个回复，以及为什么美国应该对“专政”的军事力量增长感到害怕：
中国不是“独裁”。中国没有一个独裁者谁能掌握全部的权力。中国，跟俄罗斯一样，是由中央政治局的九长老加上主席才掌握大多数权力。
但是沙特和阿联酋是独裁，相反，独裁者们（沙特和阿联酋国王在他们的国度拥有绝对大权），而美国是很乐意和上述两国的独裁者们称为亲密盟友。做个比较，中国和俄罗斯的民主元素远远多于沙特和阿联酋。（中国的人大和俄罗斯的国会VS一点民主都没有的沙特和阿联酋）。美国不是很喜欢宣称自己是民主的灯塔么，但是他和合法独裁的沙特与阿联酋成为紧密盟友，却在鼓动对更民主的俄罗斯与中国的恐惧（而他们怎么就刚好就是美国的战略竞争对手呢？），美国人不是显露出他们强烈的虚伪么？
8.台灣獨立..April 5th, 03:15 After reading the comments posted here,
I can't believe how naive some people
are about China.
在我读了这里评论之后，我发现这里很多人对中国的态度很天真。
*Spying and Asymmetrical warfare
China is currently engagedin spying on Taiwandefenses
to weaken it. Anyone who thinks Taiwanwants formal
reunification must have his/her head examined.
http://abcnews.go.com/Internatio ... ies-target-taiwa...
间谍和不对称战争中国正在台湾的防御体系上布满了间谍。任何有以为台湾人希望正式统一的人都应该去神经病院去看看脑子。
China's J-20 stealth fighter technology came from
a downed U.S. F-117 during the Balkans conflict in 1999.
At the time, it was reported that Chinese agents bought
pieces of the wreckage. Later, the reports and subsequent
technology appropriation were confirmed.
http://cyberarms.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/f117-in-china.png
中国的J20科技是来自于1999年巴尔干半岛冲突中掉落的美国飞机F117.据报道，当时中国代理商购买了飞机碎片，后来的报道和科研经费证实了这一点。
In addition to confirmed satellite killer missiles, and
carrier killer missiles, Chinahas advanced cyberwarfare
capabilities.
除了已经证实的卫星杀手导弹和航母杀手导弹，中国还有先进的网络战的能力。
*Borders not settled.
China is quickly buildinglarge military facilities right
on the border with India(see link). There are still a
border dispute with Indianot fully settled in the 1962 war.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AQSmIjbROE&feature=relmfu
中国在中印边界建立大型军事设施。自1962年以来中印爆发的边境冲突尚未结束。
*Unconfirmed developments that could cause grave
concerns if proven true.
未经证实的发展在被证明是真的后会导致严重关注。
Talks with Pakistanon using its deep port at Gwadar
to host China's currentaircraft carrier as a projection
of China's naval poweroutside Chinaterritorial waters
after sea trials are concluded.
中国在和巴基斯坦谈瓜达尔深水港的建设，当中国的航母在试航结束后能把她的海军力量投射到中国领海之外。
Proposals reported on mainstream Brazilian newspaper
Folha de São Paulo that Brazilwere in talks with
China to allow Chinesepilots to train on Brazil's
aircraft carrier named Sao Paulo(Formerly Clemenceau
class-France). China's J-10aircraft (a technological
mix from Israel Lavi airframe and copied F-16 parts
with Chinese home grown technology) has already
surpassed Taiwan'sF-16A/B models in performance.
If China does indeed uses Brazil's aircraft carrier,
that would be a slap on Taiwanand would show Brazil's
true colors
.巴西的主流报纸报道中国和巴西在谈判让中国的飞行员在巴西的圣保罗号（前身是法国的克莱蒙梭级航母）航母上练习。中国的J10战斗机（混合以色列的幼狮，抄袭了F16a/b，和中国本土技术）在性能上已经超过了台湾的F-16a/b。如果巴西同意中国在航母上训练，那将会给台湾一个耳光，并显示了巴西真正的面目。
China is currently building several aircraft carrier
concurrently. Some reports have mentioned four; others
just another one based on the Varyag (the one China
bought from the Ukraine,and retrofitted to set sail
on its current sea trials.
中国现在显示在造好几艘航母。据一些报道说是四艘，其他的只是瓦良格的号的山寨版（中国从乌克兰那里买的，现在正在海试中）
On the unconfirmed reports above, it would be useful
to check them at a later date to prove their validity.
Originally, Chinabought the Varyag under false pretenses
(It was originally bought to be an amusement park),
and later the rumors about its refurbished carrier were
confirmed.
以上未经证实的报告，将会在以后的日子中来检验它们的有效性。起初，中国以一个虚假的名义购买了瓦良格（它一开始被当成博彩公园），然后，那些航母被翻新的传言得到了证实。
原创翻译:http://www.ltaaa.com/ 译者:棉花糖 转载请注明出处
China fought two border wars with Vietnamin 1979 and
1984, and it appears that Chinalearned from its mistakes.
Its weapon systems are far more advanced now, and its
military personnel better trained. A border war with
Vietnamwould be quite different than decades ago.As long as China continues its monetary march,there
is less chance of a conflict. However, China's military
expenditures and capabilities are a cause for cautionary
alarm. To complement TE article, there is an interesting
graph about China'smilitary expenditures over the past
decade. (see link below).
http://www.reuters.com/places/china
中国在1979年和1984年对越南发动了两场边境战争，它显示了中国从她的错误中得到了教训。现在她的武器系统更先进了，她的军人训练有素。再跟越南来一场战争会和几十年前截然不同。只要中国持续她的经济政策，冲突的机会会很小。但是中国的军事开支和能力是警示性的警告。为了补充这篇文章，这里有个有趣的图来显示中国过去的十年的军费开支。（看以下链接）.
9LesAdieuxApril 5th, 05:54when the west talk about "order and justice", they mean their right to keep all the spoils they've stolen in the past 300 years
当西方人说“秩序和正义”时，他们的意思是他们有权力保留他们在过去300年里偷走的一切。
10.RiddickApril 5th, 04:03It's very simple: were China to accept the international order as is, it would be hemmed in, enrcircled, constrained, weakened, because the current order is designed to perpetuate itself.China is doing what anyone else would do in it's position. To change things to its advantage. For others to criticize is simply ideological, biased, disingenious, hypocritical.Since 1972, How many innocent people around the world have died at the hand of the Chinese state? How many have died at the hand of the enlightened western democratic states, in the name of preserving the global order ?Case closed.
这很简单：当中国接受所谓的国际规则，她就会被包围被围困被约束被削弱，因为当前规则被创造出来的最初目的就是，保持现状。中国只是在做当任何人处于她所在位置都会做的事情。让一切变的对自己有利。而那些对别人的批评只是一种单向思维，偏见，虚伪，伪善。自从1972年开始，有多少无辜的民众死于中国人之手？有多少人死在开明的西方国家以维护全球秩序的名义之下？
11.funkedUp143April 5th, 11:43Is this US PR?I mean Economist trots this article out in different forms every couple of months at the moment.The narrative is always the same and nothing gets answered.To summarise -- China is sneaky and unpreditable
- Its neighbours should be worried
- Potential Arms Race
- The US is always the knight in shining armour helping the little guys outWhat gets left out is- The US has record of leaving wars and destruction in its wake wherever it inserts itself.
- Where there is money to be made or there is competition it always inserts itself
- The US purports to be transparent yet that is blatantly not true - Drones, Security State, CIA government overthrows etc etc
- The business of the US military industrial complex provides arms to most of the countries for which it is trying to "prevent" an arms race forSigh.
这是美国的公关么。我的意思是经济学人每隔一个月就把这篇文章以不同的形式发表出来，内容大同小异，却言之无物。我来总结一下哈：
-中国老是偷偷摸摸并且不可预测的。
-她的邻居们总是很担忧。-潜在的军备竞赛。
-美国总是那个帮助弱小的光明骑士。
啊，被遗漏的几点是：
-任何有美国参与的背后都有战争和毁灭的记录。
-任何有钱赚或者美国要和别人竞争的地方都会有美国。
-美国的意图都是透明的，因为他睁着眼睛说瞎话-因为无人机，美国国安，CIA会一次又一次的推翻它。
-美国的军工联合体会提供武器给绝大多数国家，因为美国希望“阻止”军备竞赛。
搞定。
12.jTqSkFvj5y in reply to SyllogizerApril 4th, 22:27So our own tendency to engage in wars is not the cause for alarm, the possibility that China might be seeking to engage in one is!Did I get that right?
所以我们希望加入一场战争是不会引起恐慌的，而中国寻求加入一场战争的可能性绝对会引起恐慌。我说的对不。
原创翻译:http://www.ltaaa.com/ 译者:棉花糖 转载请注明出处
13.goat in the living roomApril 5th, 00:56Interesting diagnosis, bad prescription. If China does not believe that international institutions are imparcial (and who is the one who does?), why should China submit it territorial disputes to international arbitration? Why not, instead, to reform internationals institutions and make them more democratic and reliable?And if China is not an expansionistic power, and much of its effort is aimed at deterring America from intervening in a future crisis over Taiwan, as the author argues, how could be a good prescription to US to coninue to expand its military presence in Asia? The truth is that amount of military spending that US after the end of the cold war is totally unjustified. And it is this spending, together with its expansionistic politics, that are driving China and other countries in a military spending race.The problem is that developed countries (and western media) still treating China and other developing countries in a paternalistic way, as if they were dumb children. They might pretend to play this game when it is convenient to them, but they know, as much as the west does, the real rules of the game. Rich countries have an option. They can keep the rules this way, but they cannot sustain their lead in the long run. And perhaps the opressors of today will be the opressed of tomorrow. That is, in fact, what the rich countries are really afraid of (including The Economist). Or perhaps rich countries could use their last years in the lead to change the rules and build more democratic global institutions and a more democratic global governance, in all spheres, includind the military. That is what emerging powers really want, and what a considerable part of western civil society also want, but their governants and their media pretend not to listen.
有趣的诊断，但是开的什么狗P药方。如果中国不认为国际机构是公正的（那谁是公正的？）凭什么中国要把自己的领土争端提交国际仲裁啊。为什么不让国际机构自己进行改革，让他们变的更加民主和可信的呢。就像作者所说，如果中国不是一个扩展主义的强权国家，而且她的多数努力是针对未来爆发台海危机时阻止美国的干预。这可是解决美国在亚洲扩展军事存在的好方法。事实就是美国在冷战之后还维持这么大数额的军费完全是没有道理的。正是这种军费开支，已经美国的扩张性的政策，导致中国以及其他国家一起进入军备竞赛。现在的问题是发达国家（西方媒体）依然把中国和其他发展中国家当做小孩呵斥。西方也许会在他们舒坦的时候假兮兮的按照规则玩游戏，但是中国知道，西方的所作所为才是游戏的真正规则。富裕的国家有一个选择。他们可以保存这个游戏规则，但是长远角度看，在这个规则内将不会由他们说了算。也许今天的压迫者在明天会被压迫。这才是发达国家们真正害怕的（说的就是你-经济学人）。抑或，发达国家们在他们领先的最后几年里改变一下规则，建立更民主的机构和更民主的统治，从各个方面开始，包括军事。这才是新兴强权想要的，被对待为西方的一个重要组成部分，但是西方政府和他们的媒体会无视掉这一点的。
14.Don Malo in reply to nkabApril 4th, 20:00China is a dictatorship. That is all it takes to raise alarm in the west. Get yourself an accountable leadership that respect the rights of your own citizens, and we would feel more confident that you will respect ours, too.
中国就是一个独裁国家。她的一切都在引起西方的恐慌。你们赶紧弄个负点责任的领导，尊重你们人民的权利，这样我们才有信心相信你能同样尊重我们，
15.tell truthApril 5th, 11:16it is always right for US to have thousand guns. other countries should have no weapons at all. American will come to protect you if you listen to them and obey. this is American world order which they are trying to maintain even they are running of cash.
只有美国能有枪，其他国家没有枪才是对的。只要你听话并且服从，大美利坚就会保护你。这就是美国想维持的世界秩序，即便美国破产了。（译者注：反讽，外加漏单词）
16.KursatoApril 5th, 13:06"Its armed forces have had no real combat experience for more than 30 years, whereas America’s have been fighting, and learning, constantly."So we should fear America way more than China, for China can restrain itself. Something in which America fails at.“
中国的军队已经30年没有打仗了，而美国一直在打仗并且刷经验中”。
所以我们比起中国应该害怕美国啊，因为中国能克制自己，而美国人不会。
17.Riddick in reply to 台灣獨立..April 5th, 03:37Anybody who thinks Taiwan can be a truly indepedent state should have their heads examined.Some Taiwanese aspire to the level of independence comparable to that of Phillippines. Those heads don't need to be examined; they should just be discarded.
回台湾独立“任何有以为台湾人希望正式统一的人都应该去神经病院去看看脑子。
“一些想得到菲律宾式独立的台湾人啊，你们不用去检查脑子，扔掉得了。
18.Gray SouthonApril 5th, 22:07Such an analysis of the treat of China, needs to be balanced by recognition of the enormous threat that the US, and others pose to China, the many military bases that surround China and the belligerent actions that are taken towards China, particularly by the US. If China is to balance US power, as is reasonable to anticipate, then it needs to balance the over 700 foreign military bases that the US has. Do we really want that?We really do need to accept that a massive reduction in US military power is the only way to a reasonable balance of military forces.
在分析中国威胁的时候，不需要对等看下来自美国的巨大威胁么，还有其他人对中国的威胁。用一大堆军事基地包围中国，用敌视行动对待中国，尤其是美国。如果中国对美国需要力量平衡，这是合理预期。中国需要700个海外军事基地，就像美国一样，这就是我们真的想要的？只有我们美军大规模裁军才是平衡双方军力的唯一可行之路。
http://www.ltaaa.com/wtfy/4311.html
不知道能不能转，不能转版主就删帖
5.我在圣弗朗西斯科湾地区的房子有个租户，是个印度医生，排序是O-6。在一个军事医院有类似上校军衔。他服役时去了2次阿富汗和2次伊拉克。现在他退役了，在一家退役军人医院里。他告诉我美军是多么能犯错，多么浪费，多么废物。
6. U.S.is the world biggest debtor and Chinais the world biggest creditor.
6.美国是世界上最大的债务国，而中国是世界上最大的债权国。
7. I think the balance of power is shifting from the‘west’ to China,not only economically, also militarily.
7.我认为从西方转移到中国的力量可不仅仅是经济力量还有军事力量。
8. Several thousand years ago, Sun Tse, the militarygenius in his ‘art of war’ book said: “Know your enemy and know yourself andyou can fight a hundred battles without disaster”.
Frankly, this is what I see as a working stiff.
8.几千年前，孙子在他的军事指导书《孙子兵法》里写道“知己知彼方能百战不殆”.
老实说，这是我的座右铭。
5.Ohio April 4th, 16:39
There is no doubt that China can and will exercise controlover the waters to the first island chain. What does this mean in practice? Taiwan must come to a series of accomodationswith China,without necessarily abandoning its democracy, and without necessarily formallyfalling under the mainland government. Chinagains nothing from invading Taiwanexcept worldwide emnity and 50 years of distrust from its other neighbors. Onlya government desperate to distract its people with a nationalist cause would doso, but who knows? Argentinainvaded the Falklands. All it takes is onepoorly chosen Politburo.
毫无疑问，中国将能控制第一岛链所有的水域。但是在现实上有什么意义的？首先，台湾必须与中国进行一系列的和解，不需要去除它的民主，不需要被大陆政府形式上控制。中国侵略台湾除了得到全世界的仇视和邻国50年的不信任外什么都得不到。除非政府不顾一切想以一个民族主义的理由转移国内矛盾，但是，谁知道呢？阿根廷侵略马岛，但是这是中央政治局最傻的选择。
China can deny the use of the South China sea to othernations, but those other nations can deny the use of the South China sea to China for themost part as well. Acting tough yields nothing but tough actors. In the end,economic development of the sea benefits all parties, and lack of developmentbenefits none. Who receives the royalties for oil, fish, or other resources issecondary and negotiable. It's just business.
中国可以否认其他国家在南海使用权，但是其他国家也可以反过来这么对付中国。在一个糟糕的领域演出的只能是一个糟糕的演员。最后，这片海的开发能造福所有人，没有开发那么谁也不能受益。不管谁得到石油渔业或者其他资源的特许使用权都是次要的并可以转让的。
Looking further ahead, what about Pax America, thesystem of freeish capitalism and a preference for democratic liberalism in aworld where American military power reigns? As the 21st century progresses, China will havethe potential to challenge and change Pax Americana. Americamay slowly lose the means and the will to continue policing the world(certainly Europe already has). If the US retrenches, will Chinastep in to maintain order in Asia and beyond?Likely yes. Will a world system infused with more Chinese and fewer Americanvalues be an improvement? Perhaps (I'd venture probably not), but it depends onwhich Chinese values are infused. What will be the values that China exportsin a generation or two when it has the potential to be the world's mostpowerful nation?
看的在长远一点，关于大同美国（由美国控制下的世界和平），自由资本主义和自由民主主义的系统是由美国的军事力量来统治的？随着21世纪的发展，中国有这个潜力来挑战和改变大同美国。美国会慢慢失去控制这个世界的能力（当然欧洲已经失去了）。如果美国减少开支，中国会取而代之美国在亚洲的位子维持亚洲的秩序？看起来是的。在这个世界体系中注入更多的中国价值观而减少一点美国价值观是进步么？也许是（我认为大概不会去冒这个险），但是这取决于是注入什么样的中国价值观。当中国有潜力变成全世界最强之国时，中国会输出给1代人或者2代人什么样的价值观呢。
The American system was built and is maintained becauseit benefits America, butthat system has proved largely benign because the free trade and liberal valueson governance which benefited Americaallowed much of the world to grow wealthy and more free. A Chinese system ofworld governance based on today's Chinese values of governance would stressorder over freedom, economic order over creative destruction. I do not wishsuch a change. Let us hope that the character of China's rulers changes before theyhave the military and economic power to exercise a decisive influence on theworld's economic and political system.
美国体系能建立并维系是因为它让美国受益，但是这个体系已经被证明大体上是良性的是因为自由贸易和自由的价值观让美国的统治受益同时也让整个世界变得更加富裕并且自由。中国基于现在统治中国人的价值观来建立中国式的全球系统的话会强调纪律大于自由，经济秩序大于创造性的破坏。我不希望是这样的变化。我期望中国的统治者能改变一下他们想法，在他们的军事和经济力量能对这个世界的经济和政治体系造成决定性的影响之前。
6。Lotus_Maiden April 4th, 20:53
There's no reason why Chinashouldn't build up the military. America's constantly doing wargames with neighboring countries. How would the USlike it if China launcheswar games with Canada, Mexico or Latin Americanear it's shores. That would probably be the start of WW III...
Diplomacy is a good suggestion by the TE...but that's not the American politicsway, otherwise why would they send air craft carriers and do war games at the South China sea. Actions, not words please.
Americahave far less reason to build up its military, or keep the current size. Maybeif it re-sizes (if congress, the president and Republicans) allow it...yeah,not likely. Then it would seem like less of a threat, and a better relationshipcould be formed between the two countries.
But personally...ummmm...I don't think the Military Industrial Complexwill die out soon...at least not within this decade.
不让中国发展军事这没有道理吧。美国不断的和邻国玩军事演习。假如中国伙同加拿大和墨西哥在美国家门口玩军演，美国人会喜欢么。这也许就开始三战了。这篇文章里面提到的外交途径是不错选择，但是这不是美国的政治方式。不然的话他为什么把航母放在中国南海玩军演的呢。只有行动没有对话。
相反美国可没有理由维持现有规模的军队。也许他缩小规模（如果国会，总统或者共和党）得到允许的，是啊，不太可能。那么他会看起来不怎么有威胁，那么两国的关系会更好也说不定哦。但是，我个人认为，ummmmmm，我不认为军工综合体会马上淡出，起码近十年不可能。
原创翻译:http://www.ltaaa.com/ 译者:棉花糖 转载请注明出处
7.1-Dime AgentApril 5th, 04:47
As a response to the various people here labeling China as a "dictatorship" and why America should be afriad of a "dictatorship" increasing its military might:
China is not a "dictatorship." China does not have a dictator who holds absolute power. China, much like Russia, is actually an oligarchy where the 9 standing members of the Politburo plus the President hold most of the power.
But Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are, in contrast, dictatorships (the Kings of Saudi Arabia and the UAE legally hold absolute powers in their kingdoms), and yet America is happy to enter into close alliances with the governments of those two countries. As a point of comparsion, both China and Russia have far more elements of democracy than the Saudi Arabia and the UAE. (The NPC in China and Parlaiment in Russia vs no democracy at all in SA or the UAE.)
So as much as Americans love to claim that they are champions of democracy, by forming close alliances with true legal dictatorships in SA and the UAE while pursuing fear mongoring in the far-more democratic Russia and China (which also happen to be strategic rivals for the US), Americans really do show their massive hypocrisy, huh?
作为对很多人把中国贴上“独裁”的标签，这里我要对这些人做个回复，以及为什么美国应该对“专政”的军事力量增长感到害怕：
中国不是“独裁”。中国没有一个独裁者谁能掌握全部的权力。中国，跟俄罗斯一样，是由中央政治局的九长老加上主席才掌握大多数权力。
但是沙特和阿联酋是独裁，相反，独裁者们（沙特和阿联酋国王在他们的国度拥有绝对大权），而美国是很乐意和上述两国的独裁者们称为亲密盟友。做个比较，中国和俄罗斯的民主元素远远多于沙特和阿联酋。（中国的人大和俄罗斯的国会VS一点民主都没有的沙特和阿联酋）。美国不是很喜欢宣称自己是民主的灯塔么，但是他和合法独裁的沙特与阿联酋成为紧密盟友，却在鼓动对更民主的俄罗斯与中国的恐惧（而他们怎么就刚好就是美国的战略竞争对手呢？），美国人不是显露出他们强烈的虚伪么？
8.台灣獨立..April 5th, 03:15 After reading the comments posted here,
I can't believe how naive some people
are about China.
在我读了这里评论之后，我发现这里很多人对中国的态度很天真。
*Spying and Asymmetrical warfare
China is currently engagedin spying on Taiwandefenses
to weaken it. Anyone who thinks Taiwanwants formal
reunification must have his/her head examined.
http://abcnews.go.com/Internatio ... ies-target-taiwa...
间谍和不对称战争中国正在台湾的防御体系上布满了间谍。任何有以为台湾人希望正式统一的人都应该去神经病院去看看脑子。
China's J-20 stealth fighter technology came from
a downed U.S. F-117 during the Balkans conflict in 1999.
At the time, it was reported that Chinese agents bought
pieces of the wreckage. Later, the reports and subsequent
technology appropriation were confirmed.
http://cyberarms.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/f117-in-china.png
中国的J20科技是来自于1999年巴尔干半岛冲突中掉落的美国飞机F117.据报道，当时中国代理商购买了飞机碎片，后来的报道和科研经费证实了这一点。
In addition to confirmed satellite killer missiles, and
carrier killer missiles, Chinahas advanced cyberwarfare
capabilities.
除了已经证实的卫星杀手导弹和航母杀手导弹，中国还有先进的网络战的能力。
*Borders not settled.
China is quickly buildinglarge military facilities right
on the border with India(see link). There are still a
border dispute with Indianot fully settled in the 1962 war.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AQSmIjbROE&feature=relmfu
中国在中印边界建立大型军事设施。自1962年以来中印爆发的边境冲突尚未结束。
*Unconfirmed developments that could cause grave
concerns if proven true.
未经证实的发展在被证明是真的后会导致严重关注。
Talks with Pakistanon using its deep port at Gwadar
to host China's currentaircraft carrier as a projection
of China's naval poweroutside Chinaterritorial waters
after sea trials are concluded.
中国在和巴基斯坦谈瓜达尔深水港的建设，当中国的航母在试航结束后能把她的海军力量投射到中国领海之外。
Proposals reported on mainstream Brazilian newspaper
Folha de São Paulo that Brazilwere in talks with
China to allow Chinesepilots to train on Brazil's
aircraft carrier named Sao Paulo(Formerly Clemenceau
class-France). China's J-10aircraft (a technological
mix from Israel Lavi airframe and copied F-16 parts
with Chinese home grown technology) has already
surpassed Taiwan'sF-16A/B models in performance.
If China does indeed uses Brazil's aircraft carrier,
that would be a slap on Taiwanand would show Brazil's
true colors
.巴西的主流报纸报道中国和巴西在谈判让中国的飞行员在巴西的圣保罗号（前身是法国的克莱蒙梭级航母）航母上练习。中国的J10战斗机（混合以色列的幼狮，抄袭了F16a/b，和中国本土技术）在性能上已经超过了台湾的F-16a/b。如果巴西同意中国在航母上训练，那将会给台湾一个耳光，并显示了巴西真正的面目。
China is currently building several aircraft carrier
concurrently. Some reports have mentioned four; others
just another one based on the Varyag (the one China
bought from the Ukraine,and retrofitted to set sail
on its current sea trials.
中国现在显示在造好几艘航母。据一些报道说是四艘，其他的只是瓦良格的号的山寨版（中国从乌克兰那里买的，现在正在海试中）
On the unconfirmed reports above, it would be useful
to check them at a later date to prove their validity.
Originally, Chinabought the Varyag under false pretenses
(It was originally bought to be an amusement park),
and later the rumors about its refurbished carrier were
confirmed.
以上未经证实的报告，将会在以后的日子中来检验它们的有效性。起初，中国以一个虚假的名义购买了瓦良格（它一开始被当成博彩公园），然后，那些航母被翻新的传言得到了证实。
原创翻译:http://www.ltaaa.com/ 译者:棉花糖 转载请注明出处
China fought two border wars with Vietnamin 1979 and
1984, and it appears that Chinalearned from its mistakes.
Its weapon systems are far more advanced now, and its
military personnel better trained. A border war with
Vietnamwould be quite different than decades ago.As long as China continues its monetary march,there
is less chance of a conflict. However, China's military
expenditures and capabilities are a cause for cautionary
alarm. To complement TE article, there is an interesting
graph about China'smilitary expenditures over the past
decade. (see link below).
http://www.reuters.com/places/china
中国在1979年和1984年对越南发动了两场边境战争，它显示了中国从她的错误中得到了教训。现在她的武器系统更先进了，她的军人训练有素。再跟越南来一场战争会和几十年前截然不同。只要中国持续她的经济政策，冲突的机会会很小。但是中国的军事开支和能力是警示性的警告。为了补充这篇文章，这里有个有趣的图来显示中国过去的十年的军费开支。（看以下链接）.
9LesAdieuxApril 5th, 05:54when the west talk about "order and justice", they mean their right to keep all the spoils they've stolen in the past 300 years
当西方人说“秩序和正义”时，他们的意思是他们有权力保留他们在过去300年里偷走的一切。
10.RiddickApril 5th, 04:03It's very simple: were China to accept the international order as is, it would be hemmed in, enrcircled, constrained, weakened, because the current order is designed to perpetuate itself.China is doing what anyone else would do in it's position. To change things to its advantage. For others to criticize is simply ideological, biased, disingenious, hypocritical.Since 1972, How many innocent people around the world have died at the hand of the Chinese state? How many have died at the hand of the enlightened western democratic states, in the name of preserving the global order ?Case closed.
这很简单：当中国接受所谓的国际规则，她就会被包围被围困被约束被削弱，因为当前规则被创造出来的最初目的就是，保持现状。中国只是在做当任何人处于她所在位置都会做的事情。让一切变的对自己有利。而那些对别人的批评只是一种单向思维，偏见，虚伪，伪善。自从1972年开始，有多少无辜的民众死于中国人之手？有多少人死在开明的西方国家以维护全球秩序的名义之下？
11.funkedUp143April 5th, 11:43Is this US PR?I mean Economist trots this article out in different forms every couple of months at the moment.The narrative is always the same and nothing gets answered.To summarise -- China is sneaky and unpreditable
- Its neighbours should be worried
- Potential Arms Race
- The US is always the knight in shining armour helping the little guys outWhat gets left out is- The US has record of leaving wars and destruction in its wake wherever it inserts itself.
- Where there is money to be made or there is competition it always inserts itself
- The US purports to be transparent yet that is blatantly not true - Drones, Security State, CIA government overthrows etc etc
- The business of the US military industrial complex provides arms to most of the countries for which it is trying to "prevent" an arms race forSigh.
这是美国的公关么。我的意思是经济学人每隔一个月就把这篇文章以不同的形式发表出来，内容大同小异，却言之无物。我来总结一下哈：
-中国老是偷偷摸摸并且不可预测的。
-她的邻居们总是很担忧。-潜在的军备竞赛。
-美国总是那个帮助弱小的光明骑士。
啊，被遗漏的几点是：
-任何有美国参与的背后都有战争和毁灭的记录。
-任何有钱赚或者美国要和别人竞争的地方都会有美国。
-美国的意图都是透明的，因为他睁着眼睛说瞎话-因为无人机，美国国安，CIA会一次又一次的推翻它。
-美国的军工联合体会提供武器给绝大多数国家，因为美国希望“阻止”军备竞赛。
搞定。
12.jTqSkFvj5y in reply to SyllogizerApril 4th, 22:27So our own tendency to engage in wars is not the cause for alarm, the possibility that China might be seeking to engage in one is!Did I get that right?
所以我们希望加入一场战争是不会引起恐慌的，而中国寻求加入一场战争的可能性绝对会引起恐慌。我说的对不。
原创翻译:http://www.ltaaa.com/ 译者:棉花糖 转载请注明出处
13.goat in the living roomApril 5th, 00:56Interesting diagnosis, bad prescription. If China does not believe that international institutions are imparcial (and who is the one who does?), why should China submit it territorial disputes to international arbitration? Why not, instead, to reform internationals institutions and make them more democratic and reliable?And if China is not an expansionistic power, and much of its effort is aimed at deterring America from intervening in a future crisis over Taiwan, as the author argues, how could be a good prescription to US to coninue to expand its military presence in Asia? The truth is that amount of military spending that US after the end of the cold war is totally unjustified. And it is this spending, together with its expansionistic politics, that are driving China and other countries in a military spending race.The problem is that developed countries (and western media) still treating China and other developing countries in a paternalistic way, as if they were dumb children. They might pretend to play this game when it is convenient to them, but they know, as much as the west does, the real rules of the game. Rich countries have an option. They can keep the rules this way, but they cannot sustain their lead in the long run. And perhaps the opressors of today will be the opressed of tomorrow. That is, in fact, what the rich countries are really afraid of (including The Economist). Or perhaps rich countries could use their last years in the lead to change the rules and build more democratic global institutions and a more democratic global governance, in all spheres, includind the military. That is what emerging powers really want, and what a considerable part of western civil society also want, but their governants and their media pretend not to listen.
有趣的诊断，但是开的什么狗P药方。如果中国不认为国际机构是公正的（那谁是公正的？）凭什么中国要把自己的领土争端提交国际仲裁啊。为什么不让国际机构自己进行改革，让他们变的更加民主和可信的呢。就像作者所说，如果中国不是一个扩展主义的强权国家，而且她的多数努力是针对未来爆发台海危机时阻止美国的干预。这可是解决美国在亚洲扩展军事存在的好方法。事实就是美国在冷战之后还维持这么大数额的军费完全是没有道理的。正是这种军费开支，已经美国的扩张性的政策，导致中国以及其他国家一起进入军备竞赛。现在的问题是发达国家（西方媒体）依然把中国和其他发展中国家当做小孩呵斥。西方也许会在他们舒坦的时候假兮兮的按照规则玩游戏，但是中国知道，西方的所作所为才是游戏的真正规则。富裕的国家有一个选择。他们可以保存这个游戏规则，但是长远角度看，在这个规则内将不会由他们说了算。也许今天的压迫者在明天会被压迫。这才是发达国家们真正害怕的（说的就是你-经济学人）。抑或，发达国家们在他们领先的最后几年里改变一下规则，建立更民主的机构和更民主的统治，从各个方面开始，包括军事。这才是新兴强权想要的，被对待为西方的一个重要组成部分，但是西方政府和他们的媒体会无视掉这一点的。
14.Don Malo in reply to nkabApril 4th, 20:00China is a dictatorship. That is all it takes to raise alarm in the west. Get yourself an accountable leadership that respect the rights of your own citizens, and we would feel more confident that you will respect ours, too.
中国就是一个独裁国家。她的一切都在引起西方的恐慌。你们赶紧弄个负点责任的领导，尊重你们人民的权利，这样我们才有信心相信你能同样尊重我们，
15.tell truthApril 5th, 11:16it is always right for US to have thousand guns. other countries should have no weapons at all. American will come to protect you if you listen to them and obey. this is American world order which they are trying to maintain even they are running of cash.
只有美国能有枪，其他国家没有枪才是对的。只要你听话并且服从，大美利坚就会保护你。这就是美国想维持的世界秩序，即便美国破产了。（译者注：反讽，外加漏单词）
16.KursatoApril 5th, 13:06"Its armed forces have had no real combat experience for more than 30 years, whereas America’s have been fighting, and learning, constantly."So we should fear America way more than China, for China can restrain itself. Something in which America fails at.“
中国的军队已经30年没有打仗了，而美国一直在打仗并且刷经验中”。
所以我们比起中国应该害怕美国啊，因为中国能克制自己，而美国人不会。
17.Riddick in reply to 台灣獨立..April 5th, 03:37Anybody who thinks Taiwan can be a truly indepedent state should have their heads examined.Some Taiwanese aspire to the level of independence comparable to that of Phillippines. Those heads don't need to be examined; they should just be discarded.
回台湾独立“任何有以为台湾人希望正式统一的人都应该去神经病院去看看脑子。
“一些想得到菲律宾式独立的台湾人啊，你们不用去检查脑子，扔掉得了。
18.Gray SouthonApril 5th, 22:07Such an analysis of the treat of China, needs to be balanced by recognition of the enormous threat that the US, and others pose to China, the many military bases that surround China and the belligerent actions that are taken towards China, particularly by the US. If China is to balance US power, as is reasonable to anticipate, then it needs to balance the over 700 foreign military bases that the US has. Do we really want that?We really do need to accept that a massive reduction in US military power is the only way to a reasonable balance of military forces.
在分析中国威胁的时候，不需要对等看下来自美国的巨大威胁么，还有其他人对中国的威胁。用一大堆军事基地包围中国，用敌视行动对待中国，尤其是美国。如果中国对美国需要力量平衡，这是合理预期。中国需要700个海外军事基地，就像美国一样，这就是我们真的想要的？只有我们美军大规模裁军才是平衡双方军力的唯一可行之路。
http://www.ltaaa.com/wtfy/4311.html
不知道能不能转，不能转版主就删帖
"中国的J20科技是来自于1999年巴尔干半岛冲突中掉落的美国飞机F117.据报道，当时中国代理商购买了飞机碎片，后来的报道和科研经费证实了这一点。"
这句是真的假的？自己想想还觉得挺靠谱、、、
这句是真的假的？自己想想还觉得挺靠谱、、、
有时一群虚伪逇人帮另外一个更虚伪的人时，世界都是可怕的
9LesAdieuxApril 5th, 05:54when the west talk about "order and justice", they mean their right to keep all the spoils they've stolen in the past 300 years
当西方人说“秩序和正义”时，他们的意思是他们有权力保留他们在过去300年里偷走的一切。
吾深以为然
当西方人说“秩序和正义”时，他们的意思是他们有权力保留他们在过去300年里偷走的一切。
吾深以为然
中国的好东西 都是偷美国的
真是想不明白 为什么他们会变的如此自大
真是想不明白 为什么他们会变的如此自大
"中国的J20科技是来自于1999年巴尔干半岛冲突中掉落的美国飞机F117.据报道，当时中国代理商购买了飞机碎片， ...
假的！不过我们从中弄到了隐形的秘密。
假的！不过我们从中弄到了隐形的秘密。
乌龙面 发表于 2012-4-9 12:23 
"中国的J20科技是来自于1999年巴尔干半岛冲突中掉落的美国飞机F117.据报道，当时中国代理商购买了飞机碎片， ...
实话实说，F117送到门前都不惜要，如若真的美国就没必要这么大肆抹黑了。
"中国的J20科技是来自于1999年巴尔干半岛冲突中掉落的美国飞机F117.据报道，当时中国代理商购买了飞机碎片， ...
实话实说，F117送到门前都不惜要，如若真的美国就没必要这么大肆抹黑了。
乌龙面 发表于 2012-4-9 12:23
"中国的J20科技是来自于1999年巴尔干半岛冲突中掉落的美国飞机F117.据报道，当时中国代理商购买了飞机碎片， ...
从工程的角度上讲，从碎片中还原一架飞机比重新设计一架飞机的难度更高。
"中国的J20科技是来自于1999年巴尔干半岛冲突中掉落的美国飞机F117.据报道，当时中国代理商购买了飞机碎片， ...
从工程的角度上讲，从碎片中还原一架飞机比重新设计一架飞机的难度更高。
虽然媒体被权力与金钱控制，但是公道自在人心
-任何有美国参与的背后都有战争和毁灭的记录。
-任何有钱赚或者美国要和别人竞争的地方都会有美国。
-美国的意图都是透明的，因为他睁着眼睛说瞎话-因为无人机，美国国安，CIA会一次又一次的推翻它。
-美国的军工联合体会提供武器给绝大多数国家，因为美国希望“阻止”军备竞赛。
明白人还是有的……
-任何有钱赚或者美国要和别人竞争的地方都会有美国。
-美国的意图都是透明的，因为他睁着眼睛说瞎话-因为无人机，美国国安，CIA会一次又一次的推翻它。
-美国的军工联合体会提供武器给绝大多数国家，因为美国希望“阻止”军备竞赛。
明白人还是有的……
乌龙面 发表于 2012-4-9 12:23
"中国的J20科技是来自于1999年巴尔干半岛冲突中掉落的美国飞机F117.据报道，当时中国代理商购买了飞机碎片， ...
难道仅凭一块飞机碎片就能造出一架隐形飞机？这不是扯淡吗？
"中国的J20科技是来自于1999年巴尔干半岛冲突中掉落的美国飞机F117.据报道，当时中国代理商购买了飞机碎片， ...
难道仅凭一块飞机碎片就能造出一架隐形飞机？这不是扯淡吗？
我爱凯迪 发表于 2012-4-9 13:01
从工程的角度上讲，从碎片中还原一架飞机比重新设计一架飞机的难度更高。
就像用空一格的基因还原出太祖一样不靠谱
从工程的角度上讲，从碎片中还原一架飞机比重新设计一架飞机的难度更高。
就像用空一格的基因还原出太祖一样不靠谱
看这些东西，最大的感触就是汉字的信息量真大啊：英语写的那么多行那么多字，翻译成中文却那么短
怀疑相同的故事，翻译成英文和中文，让各自以其为母语的人去读，中国人先读完...
怀疑相同的故事，翻译成英文和中文，让各自以其为母语的人去读，中国人先读完...
一些人一直希望中国能像美国一样的民主，好吧，那就让中国做回第二个美国吧：到那时，中国将在亚洲非洲拉美新建一百个军事基地，将每过两年发动一场大规模对外战争。每年至少制造20000个无辜平民的死亡。向全球主要国家派出20000像中情局一样的特工，你不满就搞垮你的政权，发现不听话的国家元首，抓到中国进行审判……
乌龙面 发表于 2012-4-9 12:23
"中国的J20科技是来自于1999年巴尔干半岛冲突中掉落的美国飞机F117.据报道，当时中国代理商购买了飞机碎片， ...
有这种传言
但是我们得到的是隐形涂料的秘密
仅此而已
乌龙面 发表于 2012-4-9 12:23
"中国的J20科技是来自于1999年巴尔干半岛冲突中掉落的美国飞机F117.据报道，当时中国代理商购买了飞机碎片， ...
有这种传言
但是我们得到的是隐形涂料的秘密
仅此而已
zero_igniz 发表于 2012-4-9 13:21
看这些东西，最大的感触就是汉字的信息量真大啊：英语写的那么多行那么多字，翻译成中文却那么短
怀 ...
作战的时候更明显，复杂的计划和命令用中文传输可以更快的理解和执行，记录背诵也更快，每条指令节约2秒，一场战役下来就恐怖了。
还有飞机作战，除了数据链能传输大体情报，现场全靠电台一人一句，每句话节省2秒……
看这些东西，最大的感触就是汉字的信息量真大啊：英语写的那么多行那么多字，翻译成中文却那么短
怀 ...
作战的时候更明显，复杂的计划和命令用中文传输可以更快的理解和执行，记录背诵也更快，每条指令节约2秒，一场战役下来就恐怖了。
还有飞机作战，除了数据链能传输大体情报，现场全靠电台一人一句，每句话节省2秒……
zero_igniz 发表于 2012-4-9 13:21
看这些东西，最大的感触就是汉字的信息量真大啊：英语写的那么多行那么多字，翻译成中文却那么短
怀 ...
乃还忘了一件大杀器——文言文
，此物一出谁与争锋！
看这些东西，最大的感触就是汉字的信息量真大啊：英语写的那么多行那么多字，翻译成中文却那么短
怀 ...
乃还忘了一件大杀器——文言文
，此物一出谁与争锋！
英文看着好难受！而且都是废话！简单明了的意思就是一个“遏制中国”！还是有明白人的。。。我找回了对西方网民判断力的信心，呵呵
浪FAV 发表于 2012-4-9 13:53
乃还忘了一件大杀器——文言文，此物一出谁与争锋！
文言文传递时省字节，阅读时费时间。
乃还忘了一件大杀器——文言文，此物一出谁与争锋！
文言文传递时省字节，阅读时费时间。
这作者精分了么，一边说中国式个威胁，一边又说中国不够格~~~
我们发展点军事力量就变成了军事威胁，军备竞赛
兔子的原罪真不少
p.s 评论里二楼的恢复太给力了，顶一个
我们发展点军事力量就变成了军事威胁，军备竞赛
兔子的原罪真不少
p.s 评论里二楼的恢复太给力了，顶一个
黑色守望 发表于 2012-4-9 12:43
9LesAdieuxApril 5th, 05:54when the west talk about "order and justice", they mean their right to kee ...
这话才是这个世界真正应该被大家认识到得东西
欧美发达的代价是现有第三世界国家的羸弱贫困换来的，是用他们的未来他们的鲜血他们的人命换来的
9LesAdieuxApril 5th, 05:54when the west talk about "order and justice", they mean their right to kee ...
这话才是这个世界真正应该被大家认识到得东西
欧美发达的代价是现有第三世界国家的羸弱贫困换来的，是用他们的未来他们的鲜血他们的人命换来的
评论里很多人的看法非常到位，看来群众的眼睛是雪亮的啊
我爱凯迪 发表于 2012-4-9 13:01
从工程的角度上讲，从碎片中还原一架飞机比重新设计一架飞机的难度更高。
就117那气动外形，能飞起来就不错了，我们只是要涂料来研究研究
从工程的角度上讲，从碎片中还原一架飞机比重新设计一架飞机的难度更高。
就117那气动外形，能飞起来就不错了，我们只是要涂料来研究研究
回“任何有以为台湾人希望正式统一的人都应该去神经病院去看看脑子。”
一些想得到菲律宾式独立的台湾人啊，你们不用去检查脑子，扔掉得了。－－－－－－－－它们压根就没脑子，拿什么扔？
得到１１７的几块碎片就把四代机搞出来了，有这种观点的人你们认为会有脑子吗？反华的NC已经把白兔彻底神话了！
得到１１７的几块碎片就把四代机搞出来了，有这种观点的人你们认为会有脑子吗？反华的NC已经把白兔彻底神话了！
沙特、阿联酋这种君主制独裁国家去支持利比亚、叙利亚的“反独裁内战”本身就是天底下最荒诞不经的笑话！
美帝所谓民主、人权大搞双重标准的范例不胜枚举、多了去了！
沙特、阿联酋这种君主制独裁国家去支持利比亚、叙利亚的“反独裁内战”本身就是天底下最荒诞不经的笑话！
美帝所谓民主、人权大搞双重标准的范例不胜枚举、多了去了！
很多评论都不错
淀浦渔翁 发表于 2012-4-9 13:35
一些人一直希望中国能像美国一样的民主，好吧，那就让中国做回第二个美国吧：到那时，中国将在亚洲非洲拉美 ...
这么经典的帖子不在二楼真是可惜了。
一些人一直希望中国能像美国一样的民主，好吧，那就让中国做回第二个美国吧：到那时，中国将在亚洲非洲拉美 ...
这么经典的帖子不在二楼真是可惜了。
乌龙面 发表于 2012-4-9 12:23
"中国的J20科技是来自于1999年巴尔干半岛冲突中掉落的美国飞机F117.据报道，当时中国代理商购买了飞机碎片， ...
哇哦,我兔好神勇阿,拿个破碎片就能搞出４代机机
可惜你那个是轰炸机,我们是战斗机阿,怎么办呢
"中国的J20科技是来自于1999年巴尔干半岛冲突中掉落的美国飞机F117.据报道，当时中国代理商购买了飞机碎片， ...
哇哦,我兔好神勇阿,拿个破碎片就能搞出４代机机
可惜你那个是轰炸机,我们是战斗机阿,怎么办呢
我最不懂的还是中国威胁论 我们追求的是国土完整 没有对外发动战争的意途 反而被说成威胁了 想这几时年打完仗后都没扩大过版图 单单这点还不够吗
我爱凯迪 发表于 2012-4-9 13:01
从工程的角度上讲，从碎片中还原一架飞机比重新设计一架飞机的难度更高。
涂料技术.J20和F117特别相似---都是黑色的.
从工程的角度上讲，从碎片中还原一架飞机比重新设计一架飞机的难度更高。
涂料技术.J20和F117特别相似---都是黑色的.
兔子要加油啊