华盛顿邮报12月25日的文章初步中文翻译《军事实力困扰中 ...

很有趣的一篇文章，尤其是里面的语气表达，我初步进行了翻译，有些句子比较难，就只做了大概意思，可能不准确大家凑合着看。

原文链接：http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/24/AR2010122402788.html
Military strength eludes China, which looks overseas for arms
军事实力困扰中国，寻求海外武器
By John Pomfret
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, December 25, 2010; 12:00 AM



MOSCOW - The Moscow Machine-Building Enterprise Salyut on the east side of town has put up a massive Soviet-style poster advertising its need for skilled workers. The New Year's party at the Chernyshev plant in a northwest suburb featured ballet dancers twirling on the stage of its Soviet-era Palace of Culture.
莫斯科，莫斯科礼炮机械制造厂在镇东侧搭起了一个庞大的苏联式的海报，宣传其对技术工人的需求。切尔尼雪夫机器制造厂的新年晚会，在西北郊苏联时代特色的文化宫舞台，进行芭蕾舞表演。

The reason for the economic and seasonal cheer is that these factories produce fighter-jet engines for a wealthy and voracious customer: China. After years of trying, Chinese engineers still can't make a reliable engine for a military plane.
为经济和节日欢呼的理由是，这些工厂为一个富裕而贪婪的客户：中国，生产战斗机的喷气发动机。尽管经过多年努力，中国工程师仍然不能为军用飞机提供一个可靠的发动机。

The country's demands for weapons systems go much further. Chinese officials last month told Russian Defense Minister Anatoly E. Serdyukov that they may resume buying major Russian weapons systems after a several-year break. On their wish list are the Su-35 fighter, for a planned Chinese aircraft carrier; IL-476 military transport planes; IL-478 air refueling tankers and the S-400 air defense system, according to Russian news reports and weapons experts.
这个国家对武器系统的要求更高。中国官员上月对俄罗斯国防部长阿纳托利.E.谢尔久科夫说，他们在今后几年可能会继续购买俄罗斯主要武器系统。据俄罗斯新闻报道和武器的专家透露，中国的意愿清单中包括：为计划中的航空母舰准备的su-35战斗机;伊尔- 476军用运输机，伊尔- 478空中加油机和S - 400防空系统。

This persistent dependence on Russian arms suppliers demonstrates a central truth about the Chinese military: The bluster about the emergence of a superpower is undermined by national defense industries that can't produce what China needs. Although the United States is making changes in response to China's growing military power, experts and officials believe it will be years, if not decades, before China will be able to produce a much-feared ballistic missile capable of striking a warship or overcome weaknesses that keep it from projecting power far from its shores.
对俄罗斯武器的持续依赖表明了一个关于中国军事的重要事实：超级大国在崛起的咆哮，被国防工业不能生产中国需要的（武器）打断。尽管美国正在针对中国日益增长的军事实力进行调整，不过专家和官员相信，这将是几年，甚至几十年后的事情，（那时）中国将能够产生一种令人极为担心，能够打击军舰的弹道导弹，并克服远离海岸投射力量不足的弱点。

"They've made remarkable progress in the development of their arms industry, but this progress shouldn't be overstated," said Vasily Kashin, a Beijing-based expert on China's defense industry. "They have a long tradition of overestimating their capabilities."
“他们已经在军火工业发展取得了显着进步，但这种发展不应该被夸大。”瓦西里.卡辛，一个中国国防工业北京的专家说， “他们有高估自己能力的长期传统。”

Ruslan Pukhov, the director of the Center for Analysis of Strategic Technologies and an adviser to Russia's ministry of defense, predicted that China would need a decade to perfect a jet engine, among other key weapons technologies. "China is still dependent on us and will stay that way for some time to come," he said.
俄罗斯战略与技术分析中心主任Ruslan Pukhov预言，中国将需要十年的时间，来完善喷气发动机的关键技术。他说“中国仍然依赖我们，并会持续一段时间。”。

Indeed, China has ordered scores of engines from the Salyut and Chernyshev factories for three of its new fighters - the J11B, a Chinese knock-off of the Russian Su-27; the J10, which China is believed to have developed with Israeli help; and the FC1, which China modeled on an aborted Soviet design. It also told Russia that it wants a third engine from another factory for the Su-35.
中国的三种新式战机，J11B，一个俄罗斯苏-27的中国山寨版（knock off）；J10，被认为研制过程中获得了以色列的帮助;FC1，中国以一个苏联中止了的设计为蓝本研制而成。事实上，中国已下令对这三种新式战斗机中所使用的，来自礼炮和切尔尼雪夫的发动机进行评估。中国还对俄罗斯表示，它想要第三种引擎，那种引擎由另一个工厂生产，（装配）在su- 35上。

How China's military is modernizing is important for the United States and the world. Apart from the conflict with radical Islamism, the United States views China's growing military strength as the most serious potential threat to U.S. interests around the world.
中国的军事现代化对美国和世界很重要。除与伊斯兰激进主义的冲突外，美国的观点，将中国发展军事实力，视为美国全球利益最严重的潜在威胁。

Speaking in 2009, Liang Guanglie, China's minister of defense, laid out a hugely ambitious plan to modernize the People's Liberation Army, committing China to forging a navy that would push past the islands that ring China's coasts, an air force capable of "a combination of offensive and defensive operations," and rocket forces of both "nuclear and conventional striking power."
中国的国防部长梁光烈在2009年时，制定了一个雄心勃勃的实现解放军现代化的计划，承诺锻造一支海军，突破第一岛链；一支“攻防兼备”的空军和同时具备“核和常规打击力量”的火箭部队。

The Pentagon, in a report to Congress this year, said that that the pace and scale of China's military reform "are broad and sweeping." But, the report noted, "the PLA remains untested in modern combat," thus making transformation difficult to assess.
五角大楼在向国会报告说，今年，这中国军事改革的规模和速度是“广泛而全面的。”但是，报告指出，“解放军依然缺乏现代作战测试”，从而使转型难以评估。

'Could be sitting ducks'
待宰的鸭子

One area in which China is thought to have made the greatest advances is in its submarines, part of what is now the largest fleet of naval vessels in Asia. In October 2006, a Chinese Song-class diesel-powered attack submarine reportedly shadowed the USS Kitty Hawk aircraft carrier and surfaced undetected four miles from the ship. Although the Pentagon never confirmed the report, it sparked concern that China could threaten the carriers that are at the heart of the U.S. Navy's ability to project power.
中国军事现代化过程中被认为是取得最大进展是其潜艇，它是现在亚洲最大的海军舰艇舰队的一部分。 2006年10月，一艘中国宋级柴油动力攻击潜艇据说尾随小鹰号航空母舰，当它被发现浮出水面时，距航母四英里。虽然五角大楼从未证实这个报告，但是它依然引起关注，中国可能会威胁到航母平台，这是美海军投射力量的核心。

China tried to buy Russian nuclear submarines but was rebuffed, so it launched a program to make its own. Over the past two years, it has deployed at least one of a new type of nuclear-powered ballistic-missile submarine called the Jin class and it may deploy as many as five more.
中国试图购买俄罗斯的核潜艇，但被断然拒绝，所以它推出了一个自己的计划。在过去两年里，它已经部署了至少一个叫晋级的新型核动力弹道导弹潜艇，它可以部署多达五个。

The Office of Naval Intelligence said the Jin gives China's navy its first credible second-strike nuclear capability; its missiles have a range of 4,000 miles. But in a report last year, the ONI also noted that the Jin is noisier than nuclear submarines built by the Soviets 30 years ago, leading experts to conclude that it would be detected as soon as it left port.
海军情报办公室称，晋级让中国海军第一次具备了可信的二次核打击能力，其导弹射程4000英里。但在去年的一份报告中，美国海军情报办公室还指出，晋级的噪声比苏联30年前建造的核潜艇大，权威专家认为它离开港口后很快就会被发现。

"There's a tendency to talk about China as a great new military threat that's coming," said Hans M. Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists. But, when it comes to Chinese submarines carrying ballistic missiles, he said, "they could be sitting ducks."
“有一种倾向，当谈论有关中国作为一个伟大的，新的军事威胁正在来临。”美国科学家联合会核信息项目主任在汉斯.M.克里斯滕森米，在涉及到中国弹道导弹潜艇时说，“他们可能是待宰的鸭子。”


Another problem is that China's submariners don't train very much.
另一个问题是中国的潜艇缺乏训练。

China's entire fleet of 63 subs conducted only a dozen patrols in 2009, according to U.S. Navy data Kristensen obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request, about a tenth of the U.S. Navy's pace. In addition, Kristensen said there is no record of a Chinese ballistic-missile sub going out on patrol. "You learn how to use your systems on patrol," he said. "If you don't patrol, how can you fight?"
中国的63个潜艇舰队在2009年全年只进行十几次巡逻，根据克里斯滕森通过信息自由法获得的美国海军资料，（中国潜艇每年的巡逻次数）只有美海军的十分之一。此外，克里斯腾森说，没有一个中国弹道导弹潜艇去巡逻的纪录。 “你通过巡逻来学习如何使用你的系统。”他说，“如果你不巡逻，你怎么打？”

Anti-ship capabilities
反舰能力

China's missile technology has always been the pointy edge of its spear, ever since Qian Xuesen, the gifted rocket scientist who was kicked out of the United States during the McCarthy period in the 1950s, returned to China.
U.S. government scientists have been impressed by China's capabilities. On Jan. 11, 2007, a Chinese missile traveling at more than four miles a second hit a satellite that was basically a box with three-foot sides, one U.S. government weapons expert said. Over the past several years, China has put into orbit 11 of what are believed to be its first military-only satellites, called Yaogan, which could provide China with the ability to track targets for its rockets.
中国的导弹技术一直是它最锋利的矛，自从火箭科学家钱学森，在20世纪50年代麦卡锡时期被美国踢出，回到中国。美国政府科学家们一直对中国的导弹能力留下深刻印象。 2007年1月11日，一枚中国弹道导弹击中了一颗卫星（这句话很难翻，不准确），一位美国政府武器专家说。在过去的几年里，中国已经将它的第一颗称为遥感的军事专用卫星送入轨道，它可以为中国的火箭提供目标跟踪能力。

China is also trying to fashion an anti-ship ballistic missile by taking a short-range rocket, the DF-21, and turning it into what could become an aircraft-carrier killing weapon.
中国还试图通过改进短程弹道导弹的方式，制造一种叫DF-21的反舰弹道导弹，使其成为航母杀手。

Even though it has yet to be deployed, the system has already sparked changes in the United States. In September, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said China's "investments in anti-ship weaponry and ballistic missiles could threaten America's primary way to project power and help allies in the Pacific - particularly our forward bases and carrier strike groups." The U.S. Navy in 2008 cut the DDG-1000 destroyer program from eight ships to three because the vessels lack a missile-defense capability.
尽管它尚未部署，但是该系统已经引起了美国的关注。九月，美国国防部长罗伯特盖茨说，中国的“反舰武器和弹道导弹可能威胁到美国投射力量和帮助太平洋盟友的主要路径。特别是我们的前进基地和航母战斗群”。 2008年美国海军将DDG - 1000驱逐舰项目从8艘削减到3艘，因为其缺乏导弹防御能力。

But the challenge for China is that an anti-ship ballistic missile is extremely hard to make. The Russians worked on one for decades and failed. The United States never tried, preferring to rely on cruise missiles and attack submarines to do the job of threatening an opposing navy.
但对中国的挑战是，反舰弹道导弹的研制非常困难。俄罗斯在这一领域研究了几十年，并且失败了。美国从来没有尝试过，美国喜欢用巡航导弹和攻击潜艇来威胁敌国海军。

U.S. satellites would detect an ASBM as soon as it was launched, providing a carrier enough warning to move several miles before the missile could reach its target. To hit a moving carrier, a U.S. government weapons specialist said, China's targeting systems would have to be "better than world-class."
美国卫星将尽快探测到反舰弹道导弹发射，并在导弹到达目标几英里前，为航空母舰提供足够的警告。美国政府武器专家说，要击中航空母舰，中国的瞄准系统必须“比世界级更好。”

Wu Riqiang, who worked for six years at the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation as a missile designer, said that while he could not confirm that such a missile existed, he believed weapons such as these were essentially "political chips," the mere mention of which had already achieved the goal of making U.S. warships think twice about operating near China's shores.
吴日强，一位曾在中国航天科工集团公司工作六年的导弹设计师，他说虽然他无法证实这种导弹的存在，但他相信武器在本质上都是“政治筹码”，能够实现一个已经实现了的目标，使美国军舰接近中国沿海时三思而行。

"It's an open question how these missiles will do in a conflict situation," said Wu, who is now studying in the United States. "But the threat - that's what's most important about them."
“这是一个开放的问题，这些导弹将在冲突中如何工作。”一位正在美国学习的吴某说。 “但威胁 - 。这就是对他们最重要的东西”

Morale trouble
士气问题

The deployment of a naval task force to the Gulf of Aden last year as part of the international operation against pirates was seen as a huge step forward for China. The implication was that China's military doctrine had shifted from defending China's borders to protecting China's interests, which span the globe. But the expeditionary force has also provided a window into weaknesses of the People's Liberation Army, according to a new report by Christopher Yung, a former Pentagon official now at the National Defense University.
一个海军特遣部队去年前往亚丁湾，作为国际打击海盗行动的一部分部署，这被看作是中国巨大的进步。言下之意是，中国的军事学说已经从捍卫中国的边界转移到维护中国的利益，而遍布全球。但是，远征队还提供了一个观察解放军弱点的窗口，根据一项由前五角大楼官员，现在在国防大学的克里斯托弗.容的新报告。

China's lack of foreign military bases - it has insisted that it won't station troops abroad - limits its capacity to maintain its ships on long-term missions. A shortage of helicopters - the workhorses of a naval expeditionary force - makes it hard for the ships to operate with one another. China's tiny fleet of replenishment ships - it has only three - doesn't give it enough capacity to do more than one such operation at a time.
中国缺乏海外军事基地，它坚持强调，它不会在国外驻军，这限制了它的船只执行长期任务的能力。直升机短缺，使海军远征部队缺乏工作平台，使得船只难以彼此操作。补给舰也无法在同一时间，替中国的小舰队，只有三艘，提供补给的能力。

China's navy, according to Yung, also has difficulty maintaining a fresh water supply for its sailors. And poor refrigeration on its ships makes it hard to preserve fruit and vegetables, something that makes for griping on board.
中国的海军，根据容，在维持水兵们的食水供应上也有困难。制冷能力的缺乏使它很难保存水果和蔬菜，在船上引起了一些抱怨。

"The sailors during the first deployment had a real morale problem," Yung said, adding that following their mission, they were taken on a beach vacation "to get morale back up."
“第一次部署，水手们面临一个真正的士气问题。”容补充说，他们的使命结束，他们被带到海滩度假“以便重新获得士气。”

Empowering local commanders, considered key to a successful fighting force, is something that Beijing clearly has yet to embrace. British Royal Navy Commodore Tim Lowe, who commanded the Gulf of Aden operation for the U.S. 5th Fleet up until May, noted that while other navies would send operations officers to multinational meetings to discuss how to fight pirates, China would dispatch a political officer who often lacked expertise. The concept of sharing intelligence among partner countries was also tough for the Chinese to fathom. To the Chinese, he said, "that was an unusual point."
给当地指挥官职权，是通向成功战力的关键钥匙，但北京显然还没有接受这点。五月亚丁湾行动前，指挥美国第5舰队的英国皇家海军准将添洛韦(Tim Lowe)指出，为讨论如何打击海盗，多国召开会议，其他国家海军将派遣专业人员，而中国将派遣一名缺乏专业知识的政治干事。伙伴国家之间分享情报的概念，对中国也是困难的。对于中国，他说：“这是不寻常的一点。”

Tension with the Kremlin
与克里姆林宫的紧张状态

China's military relations with Russia reveal further weaknesses. Between 1992 and 2006, the total value of Russia's arms exports to China was $26 billion - almost half of all the weapons Russia sold abroad.
中国与俄罗斯的军事关系进一步揭示其弱点。 1992年至2006年，俄罗斯对中国的武器出口总价值为260亿美元 - 几乎是俄罗斯销往国外武器的一半。

But tensions arose in 2004 over two issues, Russian experts said. Russia was outraged when it discovered that China, which had licensed to produce the Su-27 fighter jet from Russian kits, had actually copied the plane. China was furious that after it signed a contract for a batch of IL-76 military transport planes it discovered that Russia had no way to make them. After receiving 105 out of a contracted 200 Su-27s, China canceled the deal and weapons negotiations were not held for several years.
但2004年在两个问题上出现了紧张局势，俄罗斯专家说。俄罗斯被激怒了，当它发现中国，已经复制了从俄罗斯授权生产苏-27战斗机。中国愤怒了，在签署了一项IL - 76军用运输机后，俄罗斯才发现有没有办法让他们履行合同。在收到105一200架su-27后，中国取消了交易，武器谈判好几年没有举行。

Purchases of some items continued - S-300 air defense systems and billions of dollars worth of jet engines. An engine China made for its Su-27 knock-off would routinely conk out after 30 hours whereas the Russian engines would need refurbishing after 400, Russian and Chinese experts said.
一些武器的采购依然在继续，S - 300防空系统和价值数十亿美元的喷气发动机。中国制造的发动机在苏-27上，30个小时候后经常发生故障，而俄罗斯的发动机400小时才需要整修，俄罗斯和中国专家说。

"Engine systems are the heart disease of our whole military industry," a Chinese defense publication quoted Wang Tianmin, a military engine designer, as saying in its March issue. "From aircraft production to shipbuilding and the armored vehicles industry, there are no exceptions."
“发动机系统是我们整个军工的心脏病”军用引擎设计师王天民，在3月份的国防出版物上说。 “从飞机、造船到装甲车，没有例外。”

When weapons talks resumed with Russia in 2008, China found the Russians were driving a harder bargain. For one, it wasn't offering to let China produce Russian fighters in China. And in November, the Russians said they would only provide the Su-35 for China's aircraft carrier program if China bought 48 - enough to ensure Russian firms a handsome profit before China's engineers attempted to copy the technology. Russia also announced that the Russian military would buy the S-400 air defense system first and that China could get in line.
2008年与俄罗斯的武器谈判恢复，中国发现的俄国人更难讨价还价。首先，它不允许在中国制造俄罗斯战机。而在11月，俄国人说，他们将只提供中国的航母计划的苏-35，如果中国购买了48架，这足以保证中国工程师试图拷贝技术之前，俄罗斯企业获得可观利润。俄罗斯还宣布，俄军将第一个购买的S-400防空系统并且就中国可以得到它达成一致。

"We, too, have learned a few things," said Vladimir Portyakov, a former Russian diplomat twice posted to Beijing.
“我们也学到了一些东西。”俄罗斯前外交官，两次被派往北京的Vladimir Portyakov说。

很有趣的一篇文章，尤其是里面的语气表达，我初步进行了翻译，有些句子比较难，就只做了大概意思，可能不准确大家凑合着看。

原文链接：http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/24/AR2010122402788.html
Military strength eludes China, which looks overseas for arms
军事实力困扰中国，寻求海外武器
By John Pomfret
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, December 25, 2010; 12:00 AM



MOSCOW - The Moscow Machine-Building Enterprise Salyut on the east side of town has put up a massive Soviet-style poster advertising its need for skilled workers. The New Year's party at the Chernyshev plant in a northwest suburb featured ballet dancers twirling on the stage of its Soviet-era Palace of Culture.
莫斯科，莫斯科礼炮机械制造厂在镇东侧搭起了一个庞大的苏联式的海报，宣传其对技术工人的需求。切尔尼雪夫机器制造厂的新年晚会，在西北郊苏联时代特色的文化宫舞台，进行芭蕾舞表演。

The reason for the economic and seasonal cheer is that these factories produce fighter-jet engines for a wealthy and voracious customer: China. After years of trying, Chinese engineers still can't make a reliable engine for a military plane.
为经济和节日欢呼的理由是，这些工厂为一个富裕而贪婪的客户：中国，生产战斗机的喷气发动机。尽管经过多年努力，中国工程师仍然不能为军用飞机提供一个可靠的发动机。

The country's demands for weapons systems go much further. Chinese officials last month told Russian Defense Minister Anatoly E. Serdyukov that they may resume buying major Russian weapons systems after a several-year break. On their wish list are the Su-35 fighter, for a planned Chinese aircraft carrier; IL-476 military transport planes; IL-478 air refueling tankers and the S-400 air defense system, according to Russian news reports and weapons experts.
这个国家对武器系统的要求更高。中国官员上月对俄罗斯国防部长阿纳托利.E.谢尔久科夫说，他们在今后几年可能会继续购买俄罗斯主要武器系统。据俄罗斯新闻报道和武器的专家透露，中国的意愿清单中包括：为计划中的航空母舰准备的su-35战斗机;伊尔- 476军用运输机，伊尔- 478空中加油机和S - 400防空系统。

This persistent dependence on Russian arms suppliers demonstrates a central truth about the Chinese military: The bluster about the emergence of a superpower is undermined by national defense industries that can't produce what China needs. Although the United States is making changes in response to China's growing military power, experts and officials believe it will be years, if not decades, before China will be able to produce a much-feared ballistic missile capable of striking a warship or overcome weaknesses that keep it from projecting power far from its shores.
对俄罗斯武器的持续依赖表明了一个关于中国军事的重要事实：超级大国在崛起的咆哮，被国防工业不能生产中国需要的（武器）打断。尽管美国正在针对中国日益增长的军事实力进行调整，不过专家和官员相信，这将是几年，甚至几十年后的事情，（那时）中国将能够产生一种令人极为担心，能够打击军舰的弹道导弹，并克服远离海岸投射力量不足的弱点。

"They've made remarkable progress in the development of their arms industry, but this progress shouldn't be overstated," said Vasily Kashin, a Beijing-based expert on China's defense industry. "They have a long tradition of overestimating their capabilities."
“他们已经在军火工业发展取得了显着进步，但这种发展不应该被夸大。”瓦西里.卡辛，一个中国国防工业北京的专家说， “他们有高估自己能力的长期传统。”

Ruslan Pukhov, the director of the Center for Analysis of Strategic Technologies and an adviser to Russia's ministry of defense, predicted that China would need a decade to perfect a jet engine, among other key weapons technologies. "China is still dependent on us and will stay that way for some time to come," he said.
俄罗斯战略与技术分析中心主任Ruslan Pukhov预言，中国将需要十年的时间，来完善喷气发动机的关键技术。他说“中国仍然依赖我们，并会持续一段时间。”。

Indeed, China has ordered scores of engines from the Salyut and Chernyshev factories for three of its new fighters - the J11B, a Chinese knock-off of the Russian Su-27; the J10, which China is believed to have developed with Israeli help; and the FC1, which China modeled on an aborted Soviet design. It also told Russia that it wants a third engine from another factory for the Su-35.
中国的三种新式战机，J11B，一个俄罗斯苏-27的中国山寨版（knock off）；J10，被认为研制过程中获得了以色列的帮助;FC1，中国以一个苏联中止了的设计为蓝本研制而成。事实上，中国已下令对这三种新式战斗机中所使用的，来自礼炮和切尔尼雪夫的发动机进行评估。中国还对俄罗斯表示，它想要第三种引擎，那种引擎由另一个工厂生产，（装配）在su- 35上。

How China's military is modernizing is important for the United States and the world. Apart from the conflict with radical Islamism, the United States views China's growing military strength as the most serious potential threat to U.S. interests around the world.
中国的军事现代化对美国和世界很重要。除与伊斯兰激进主义的冲突外，美国的观点，将中国发展军事实力，视为美国全球利益最严重的潜在威胁。

Speaking in 2009, Liang Guanglie, China's minister of defense, laid out a hugely ambitious plan to modernize the People's Liberation Army, committing China to forging a navy that would push past the islands that ring China's coasts, an air force capable of "a combination of offensive and defensive operations," and rocket forces of both "nuclear and conventional striking power."
中国的国防部长梁光烈在2009年时，制定了一个雄心勃勃的实现解放军现代化的计划，承诺锻造一支海军，突破第一岛链；一支“攻防兼备”的空军和同时具备“核和常规打击力量”的火箭部队。

The Pentagon, in a report to Congress this year, said that that the pace and scale of China's military reform "are broad and sweeping." But, the report noted, "the PLA remains untested in modern combat," thus making transformation difficult to assess.
五角大楼在向国会报告说，今年，这中国军事改革的规模和速度是“广泛而全面的。”但是，报告指出，“解放军依然缺乏现代作战测试”，从而使转型难以评估。

'Could be sitting ducks'
待宰的鸭子

One area in which China is thought to have made the greatest advances is in its submarines, part of what is now the largest fleet of naval vessels in Asia. In October 2006, a Chinese Song-class diesel-powered attack submarine reportedly shadowed the USS Kitty Hawk aircraft carrier and surfaced undetected four miles from the ship. Although the Pentagon never confirmed the report, it sparked concern that China could threaten the carriers that are at the heart of the U.S. Navy's ability to project power.
中国军事现代化过程中被认为是取得最大进展是其潜艇，它是现在亚洲最大的海军舰艇舰队的一部分。 2006年10月，一艘中国宋级柴油动力攻击潜艇据说尾随小鹰号航空母舰，当它被发现浮出水面时，距航母四英里。虽然五角大楼从未证实这个报告，但是它依然引起关注，中国可能会威胁到航母平台，这是美海军投射力量的核心。

China tried to buy Russian nuclear submarines but was rebuffed, so it launched a program to make its own. Over the past two years, it has deployed at least one of a new type of nuclear-powered ballistic-missile submarine called the Jin class and it may deploy as many as five more.
中国试图购买俄罗斯的核潜艇，但被断然拒绝，所以它推出了一个自己的计划。在过去两年里，它已经部署了至少一个叫晋级的新型核动力弹道导弹潜艇，它可以部署多达五个。

The Office of Naval Intelligence said the Jin gives China's navy its first credible second-strike nuclear capability; its missiles have a range of 4,000 miles. But in a report last year, the ONI also noted that the Jin is noisier than nuclear submarines built by the Soviets 30 years ago, leading experts to conclude that it would be detected as soon as it left port.
海军情报办公室称，晋级让中国海军第一次具备了可信的二次核打击能力，其导弹射程4000英里。但在去年的一份报告中，美国海军情报办公室还指出，晋级的噪声比苏联30年前建造的核潜艇大，权威专家认为它离开港口后很快就会被发现。

"There's a tendency to talk about China as a great new military threat that's coming," said Hans M. Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists. But, when it comes to Chinese submarines carrying ballistic missiles, he said, "they could be sitting ducks."
“有一种倾向，当谈论有关中国作为一个伟大的，新的军事威胁正在来临。”美国科学家联合会核信息项目主任在汉斯.M.克里斯滕森米，在涉及到中国弹道导弹潜艇时说，“他们可能是待宰的鸭子。”


Another problem is that China's submariners don't train very much.
另一个问题是中国的潜艇缺乏训练。

China's entire fleet of 63 subs conducted only a dozen patrols in 2009, according to U.S. Navy data Kristensen obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request, about a tenth of the U.S. Navy's pace. In addition, Kristensen said there is no record of a Chinese ballistic-missile sub going out on patrol. "You learn how to use your systems on patrol," he said. "If you don't patrol, how can you fight?"
中国的63个潜艇舰队在2009年全年只进行十几次巡逻，根据克里斯滕森通过信息自由法获得的美国海军资料，（中国潜艇每年的巡逻次数）只有美海军的十分之一。此外，克里斯腾森说，没有一个中国弹道导弹潜艇去巡逻的纪录。 “你通过巡逻来学习如何使用你的系统。”他说，“如果你不巡逻，你怎么打？”

Anti-ship capabilities
反舰能力

China's missile technology has always been the pointy edge of its spear, ever since Qian Xuesen, the gifted rocket scientist who was kicked out of the United States during the McCarthy period in the 1950s, returned to China.
U.S. government scientists have been impressed by China's capabilities. On Jan. 11, 2007, a Chinese missile traveling at more than four miles a second hit a satellite that was basically a box with three-foot sides, one U.S. government weapons expert said. Over the past several years, China has put into orbit 11 of what are believed to be its first military-only satellites, called Yaogan, which could provide China with the ability to track targets for its rockets.
中国的导弹技术一直是它最锋利的矛，自从火箭科学家钱学森，在20世纪50年代麦卡锡时期被美国踢出，回到中国。美国政府科学家们一直对中国的导弹能力留下深刻印象。 2007年1月11日，一枚中国弹道导弹击中了一颗卫星（这句话很难翻，不准确），一位美国政府武器专家说。在过去的几年里，中国已经将它的第一颗称为遥感的军事专用卫星送入轨道，它可以为中国的火箭提供目标跟踪能力。

China is also trying to fashion an anti-ship ballistic missile by taking a short-range rocket, the DF-21, and turning it into what could become an aircraft-carrier killing weapon.
中国还试图通过改进短程弹道导弹的方式，制造一种叫DF-21的反舰弹道导弹，使其成为航母杀手。

Even though it has yet to be deployed, the system has already sparked changes in the United States. In September, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said China's "investments in anti-ship weaponry and ballistic missiles could threaten America's primary way to project power and help allies in the Pacific - particularly our forward bases and carrier strike groups." The U.S. Navy in 2008 cut the DDG-1000 destroyer program from eight ships to three because the vessels lack a missile-defense capability.
尽管它尚未部署，但是该系统已经引起了美国的关注。九月，美国国防部长罗伯特盖茨说，中国的“反舰武器和弹道导弹可能威胁到美国投射力量和帮助太平洋盟友的主要路径。特别是我们的前进基地和航母战斗群”。 2008年美国海军将DDG - 1000驱逐舰项目从8艘削减到3艘，因为其缺乏导弹防御能力。

But the challenge for China is that an anti-ship ballistic missile is extremely hard to make. The Russians worked on one for decades and failed. The United States never tried, preferring to rely on cruise missiles and attack submarines to do the job of threatening an opposing navy.
但对中国的挑战是，反舰弹道导弹的研制非常困难。俄罗斯在这一领域研究了几十年，并且失败了。美国从来没有尝试过，美国喜欢用巡航导弹和攻击潜艇来威胁敌国海军。

U.S. satellites would detect an ASBM as soon as it was launched, providing a carrier enough warning to move several miles before the missile could reach its target. To hit a moving carrier, a U.S. government weapons specialist said, China's targeting systems would have to be "better than world-class."
美国卫星将尽快探测到反舰弹道导弹发射，并在导弹到达目标几英里前，为航空母舰提供足够的警告。美国政府武器专家说，要击中航空母舰，中国的瞄准系统必须“比世界级更好。”

Wu Riqiang, who worked for six years at the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation as a missile designer, said that while he could not confirm that such a missile existed, he believed weapons such as these were essentially "political chips," the mere mention of which had already achieved the goal of making U.S. warships think twice about operating near China's shores.
吴日强，一位曾在中国航天科工集团公司工作六年的导弹设计师，他说虽然他无法证实这种导弹的存在，但他相信武器在本质上都是“政治筹码”，能够实现一个已经实现了的目标，使美国军舰接近中国沿海时三思而行。

"It's an open question how these missiles will do in a conflict situation," said Wu, who is now studying in the United States. "But the threat - that's what's most important about them."
“这是一个开放的问题，这些导弹将在冲突中如何工作。”一位正在美国学习的吴某说。 “但威胁 - 。这就是对他们最重要的东西”

Morale trouble
士气问题

The deployment of a naval task force to the Gulf of Aden last year as part of the international operation against pirates was seen as a huge step forward for China. The implication was that China's military doctrine had shifted from defending China's borders to protecting China's interests, which span the globe. But the expeditionary force has also provided a window into weaknesses of the People's Liberation Army, according to a new report by Christopher Yung, a former Pentagon official now at the National Defense University.
一个海军特遣部队去年前往亚丁湾，作为国际打击海盗行动的一部分部署，这被看作是中国巨大的进步。言下之意是，中国的军事学说已经从捍卫中国的边界转移到维护中国的利益，而遍布全球。但是，远征队还提供了一个观察解放军弱点的窗口，根据一项由前五角大楼官员，现在在国防大学的克里斯托弗.容的新报告。

China's lack of foreign military bases - it has insisted that it won't station troops abroad - limits its capacity to maintain its ships on long-term missions. A shortage of helicopters - the workhorses of a naval expeditionary force - makes it hard for the ships to operate with one another. China's tiny fleet of replenishment ships - it has only three - doesn't give it enough capacity to do more than one such operation at a time.
中国缺乏海外军事基地，它坚持强调，它不会在国外驻军，这限制了它的船只执行长期任务的能力。直升机短缺，使海军远征部队缺乏工作平台，使得船只难以彼此操作。补给舰也无法在同一时间，替中国的小舰队，只有三艘，提供补给的能力。

China's navy, according to Yung, also has difficulty maintaining a fresh water supply for its sailors. And poor refrigeration on its ships makes it hard to preserve fruit and vegetables, something that makes for griping on board.
中国的海军，根据容，在维持水兵们的食水供应上也有困难。制冷能力的缺乏使它很难保存水果和蔬菜，在船上引起了一些抱怨。

"The sailors during the first deployment had a real morale problem," Yung said, adding that following their mission, they were taken on a beach vacation "to get morale back up."
“第一次部署，水手们面临一个真正的士气问题。”容补充说，他们的使命结束，他们被带到海滩度假“以便重新获得士气。”

Empowering local commanders, considered key to a successful fighting force, is something that Beijing clearly has yet to embrace. British Royal Navy Commodore Tim Lowe, who commanded the Gulf of Aden operation for the U.S. 5th Fleet up until May, noted that while other navies would send operations officers to multinational meetings to discuss how to fight pirates, China would dispatch a political officer who often lacked expertise. The concept of sharing intelligence among partner countries was also tough for the Chinese to fathom. To the Chinese, he said, "that was an unusual point."
给当地指挥官职权，是通向成功战力的关键钥匙，但北京显然还没有接受这点。五月亚丁湾行动前，指挥美国第5舰队的英国皇家海军准将添洛韦(Tim Lowe)指出，为讨论如何打击海盗，多国召开会议，其他国家海军将派遣专业人员，而中国将派遣一名缺乏专业知识的政治干事。伙伴国家之间分享情报的概念，对中国也是困难的。对于中国，他说：“这是不寻常的一点。”

Tension with the Kremlin
与克里姆林宫的紧张状态

China's military relations with Russia reveal further weaknesses. Between 1992 and 2006, the total value of Russia's arms exports to China was $26 billion - almost half of all the weapons Russia sold abroad.
中国与俄罗斯的军事关系进一步揭示其弱点。 1992年至2006年，俄罗斯对中国的武器出口总价值为260亿美元 - 几乎是俄罗斯销往国外武器的一半。

But tensions arose in 2004 over two issues, Russian experts said. Russia was outraged when it discovered that China, which had licensed to produce the Su-27 fighter jet from Russian kits, had actually copied the plane. China was furious that after it signed a contract for a batch of IL-76 military transport planes it discovered that Russia had no way to make them. After receiving 105 out of a contracted 200 Su-27s, China canceled the deal and weapons negotiations were not held for several years.
但2004年在两个问题上出现了紧张局势，俄罗斯专家说。俄罗斯被激怒了，当它发现中国，已经复制了从俄罗斯授权生产苏-27战斗机。中国愤怒了，在签署了一项IL - 76军用运输机后，俄罗斯才发现有没有办法让他们履行合同。在收到105一200架su-27后，中国取消了交易，武器谈判好几年没有举行。

Purchases of some items continued - S-300 air defense systems and billions of dollars worth of jet engines. An engine China made for its Su-27 knock-off would routinely conk out after 30 hours whereas the Russian engines would need refurbishing after 400, Russian and Chinese experts said.
一些武器的采购依然在继续，S - 300防空系统和价值数十亿美元的喷气发动机。中国制造的发动机在苏-27上，30个小时候后经常发生故障，而俄罗斯的发动机400小时才需要整修，俄罗斯和中国专家说。

"Engine systems are the heart disease of our whole military industry," a Chinese defense publication quoted Wang Tianmin, a military engine designer, as saying in its March issue. "From aircraft production to shipbuilding and the armored vehicles industry, there are no exceptions."
“发动机系统是我们整个军工的心脏病”军用引擎设计师王天民，在3月份的国防出版物上说。 “从飞机、造船到装甲车，没有例外。”

When weapons talks resumed with Russia in 2008, China found the Russians were driving a harder bargain. For one, it wasn't offering to let China produce Russian fighters in China. And in November, the Russians said they would only provide the Su-35 for China's aircraft carrier program if China bought 48 - enough to ensure Russian firms a handsome profit before China's engineers attempted to copy the technology. Russia also announced that the Russian military would buy the S-400 air defense system first and that China could get in line.
2008年与俄罗斯的武器谈判恢复，中国发现的俄国人更难讨价还价。首先，它不允许在中国制造俄罗斯战机。而在11月，俄国人说，他们将只提供中国的航母计划的苏-35，如果中国购买了48架，这足以保证中国工程师试图拷贝技术之前，俄罗斯企业获得可观利润。俄罗斯还宣布，俄军将第一个购买的S-400防空系统并且就中国可以得到它达成一致。

"We, too, have learned a few things," said Vladimir Portyakov, a former Russian diplomat twice posted to Beijing.
“我们也学到了一些东西。”俄罗斯前外交官，两次被派往北京的Vladimir Portyakov说。