希望有志者能把它翻译出来，纽约时报最新文章The Chines ...

来源：百度文库编辑：超级军网时间：2024/04/29 13:13:20

The Chinese Century

By TED C. FISHMAN

Published: July 4, 2004



China used to be far away, the country at the bottom of the world. Certainly that must be how it seemed just 20 years ago in a place like Pekin, Ill., a city of 34,000 residents on the Illinois River that took its name from the Chinese capital in the 1820's. According to local legend, Pekin is directly opposite Beijing on the globe. The high-school teams there were still called the Chinks until 1981, when they were renamed the Dragons. A smart and forward-looking decision, it turns out: as is happening throughout the United States, the Pekinese have in their own local ways grown inextricably linked to the Chinese of today. They are now connected not by an imaginary hole through the earth but by the world's shipping lanes, financial markets, telecommunications networks and, above all, the globalization of appetites.


Follow the corn, for example. Trade deals struck between the U.S. and China in April will, farmers around Pekin hope, lead China to lower its import barriers and buy half a million metric tons of American corn this year. Illinois corn farmers get higher-than-usual prices for their exports because they have ready access to river transportation and in turn to big ports. Pekin is also home to the plant of Aventine Renewable Energy, the nation's second-largest producer of ethanol, a fuel derived from corn. (Ten percent of the American corn crop is converted to fuel.) China recently passed Japan as the world's second-largest consumer of petroleum, and growing Chinese demand has lately been pushing up oil prices worldwide. That makes ethanol an increasingly attractive alternative. And, indeed, ethanol prices climbed 40 cents a gallon this spring, dragging up U.S. corn prices as a result, a boon to Pekin's farmers and industry.


Then there's Excel Foundry and Machine, a local factory that makes parts for machinery used in heavy construction and mining operations. Doug Parsons, the current head of this family-owned business, has already relocated 12 percent of the company's production to China in order to hold onto business that would otherwise be lost to China's huge, cheap foundries; during the next decade he may well have to move much more of his production offshore. Parsons has China on his mind for other reasons to over the past few months, the prices of copper and iron, like those of oil, have skyrocketed in response to Chinese demand, driving up Excel's costs as a result. At the same time, however, his international mining customers have been buying more Excel products in order to feed that same Chinese appetite for commodities. And Parsons himself recently started a new company that he says will build and service advanced rock-crushing machines -- in part to take advantage of the frenzied construction boom under way in China. (One measure of just how big this boom is: China currently has more than 15,000 highway projects in the works, which will add 162,000 kilometers of road to the country, enough to circle the planet at the equator four times.)


Even something as all-American as Pekin's new Wal-Mart Supercenter spreads China's influence around town. Because 12 percent of China's exports to the U.S. end up on Wal-Mart's shelves, and because Wal-Mart's trade with China accounts for 1 percent of that country's gross domestic product, the company exerts tremendous downward pressure on prices. Its buying power enables it to dictate, in effect, what a Chinese manufacturer will get for producing goods that American consumers want. By selling Chinese-made portable DVD players with seven-inch L.C.D. screens for less than $200, for instance, Wal-Mart helped to cut the price of these trendy devices in half over the last year. Competitors have to match the chain's prices or go under. Nearly every shopper in Pekin will therefore save money by shopping at Wal-Mart -- which is to say he or she will profit from the retailer's China connection. Of course, this very connection may also contribute to Wal-Mart's ability to drive other Pekin-area stores out of business.

[此贴子已经被作者于2004-7-10 0:11:46编辑过]

Shift change at a shoe factory in the Guangdong Province.

[此贴子已经被作者于2004-7-10 0:09:03编辑过]

[此贴子已经被作者于2004-7-10 0:10:09编辑过]

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China's miracle economy can come at you in a lot of ways. By now most of us know that China is the factory floor of choice for the world's low-road manufacturing: it assembles more toys, stitches more shoes and sews more garments than any other nation in the world. But moving up the technological ladder, China has also become the world's largest maker of consumer electronics, like TV's, DVD players and cellphones. And more recently, China is climbing even higher still, moving into biotech and high-tech computer manufacturing. No country has ever made a better run at climbing every step of economic development all at once. Behind China's rapid economic ascendancy over the last 25 (and especially last 10) years is the basic fact of China's huge population. China is home to close to 1.5 billion people, probably, which would make the official census count of 1.3 billion too low by an amount equal to roughly the population of Germany, France and the United Kingdom combined. China has 100 cities of more than a million people. Since economic liberalization began in 1978, under Deng Xiaoping, the Chinese have started tens of millions of businesses. The number of Chinese who have left farms and now trawl the cities for work probably exceeds the entire work force of the United States. 
China is not home to the cheapest work force in the world. Even at 25 cents an hour, Chinese workers cost more than laborers in the poorer countries of Southeast Asia or Africa. In the world's miserable corners, children carry rifles and walk mine fields for less than a dollar a day. China is the world's workshop because it sits in a relatively stable region and offers manufacturers a reliable, pliant and capable industrial work force, groomed by generations of government-enforced discipline. 
The other great contributing factor is the migration of hundreds of millions of peasants from the countryside now that the government makes it easier for them to leave. Indeed, the country's embrace of market capitalism over the last decade and the government's insistence that farmers fend for themselves are combining forces to all but evict peasants from the land. The plots allotted to farm families are on average 1.2 acres but can be as small as an eighth of acre; in hundreds of millions of cases these farms fail to generate enough money for a family. Average city incomes, according to the Chinese government, are $1,000 a year, which is three times what they are in the countryside. That disparity has set in motion the largest human migration in history. By 2010, nearly half of all China's people will live in urban areas. 
What these numbers mean is that China's people must be regarded as the critical mass in a new world order. The productive might of China's vast low-cost manufacturing machine, along with the swelling appetites of its billion-plus consumers, have turned China's people into probably the greatest natural resource on the planet. How the Chinese (and the rest of the world) use that resource will shape our economy (and every other economy in the world) as powerfully as American industrialization and expansion has over the last hundred years.

We Have Created a Monster 
n the political debate over trade and jobs, China is the place where the world's companies choose to exploit low-cost manufacturing. The framing of this debate implies that American consumers and businesses have strong choices in the market; in fact, China, supplying ever more goods as it does, in ever more varieties and at ever better prices, is straitjacketing the choices of American businesses. China's size does not merely enable low-cost manufacturing; it forces it. Increasingly, it is what Chinese businesses and consumers choose for themselves that determines how the American economy operates. The American political debate on China's economic threat overlooks this dynamic entirely. 
The experience of Motorola, the U.S. telecommunications giant, offers a lesson in how China's size changes the rules of competition and consumption there and everywhere else. 
Every month, five million new subscribers sign up for mobile-phone service in China. The country's 300 million mobile-phone users make China by far the largest such market in the world (and hundreds of millions more accounts are up for grabs). Hence the world's makers of handsets need to be in China. It gives them a chance to grow at a time when the big European and U.S. markets are saturated. Not that it's a seller's market: for equipment makers, China is also the most competitive and protean environment in the world. New manufacturers appear out of nowhere; new phones materialize daily at big-city stores. There are 800 current handset models to choose from. Young urban consumers change phones on average after only eight months -- they sell them to someone else or pass them to family members. Mobile phones in the hands of migrant construction workers, whose annual wages might not cover the cost of a phone, are a common sight in Shanghai and Beijing. 
And this mobile-phone market in China is one that Motorola invented.

(Page 5 of 10) For Robert Galvin, the company's former and longtime chief executive, China in the early- to mid-80's promised a market that could more than make up for Motorola's having been foiled in Japan for years. But first the company had to develop a top-drawer telecommunications infrastructure. In an unscripted bold stroke at a dreary state ceremony during a tour of the country, Galvin turned to the minister of railroads and asked him whether he wanted to do a good job as minister and be done with it or whether he wanted to create a world-class society. In doing so, Galvin tapped a thick vein of economic patriotism. Motorola's company archives on its move into China are deep and open. They show that Galvin and his team knew that eventually the transfer of technology to China would sow formidable Chinese competitors. Nevertheless, Motorola decided its best strategy was to get into China early. Before long, Motorola's reports to China's political leaders -- infused with the same missionary vocabulary on industrial quality that had made the company a model for American manufacturers -- were soon parroted by China's leadership. Galvin also brought Motorola's best technology to China. The proof today is in the size and efficacy of the country's mobile communications network: calls get through to phones in high-rises, subway cars and distant hamlets -- connections that would stymie mobile phones in the U.S. What no one at Motorola saw was that the Chinese market would become the most competitive one of all. Nokia and Motorola now battle for market share in the Chinese handset business. German, Korean and Taiwanese makers figure strongly. And all these foreign brands are now facing intense competition from indigenous Chinese phone makers. ''Competition goes through a cycle in China,'' says Zirui Tian, a researcher at Insead, the French business school. ''At first the foreigners can make things at much lower cost than the Chinese. But as local companies come along to supply the multinational companies, the supply network expands very fast. Then local Chinese manufacturers can start to source their parts in China and drive the prices of their products far lower than the multinationals.'' One of Motorola's most important suppliers is the battery maker BYD Company Ltd., based in Shenzhen, near Hong Kong. In only a decade, the private company has gone from virtual invisibility to owning more than 50 percent of the global market in mobile-phone batteries. Before BYD, phone batteries were made in highly automated plants, like those run by Sanyo and Sony in Japan. But BYD, like Wanfeng, stripped robots and other machines out of the manufacturing process and replaced them with an army of workers. By paying for Chinese salaries, and not for million-dollar American, German or Japanese machines, BYD slashed the price of batteries. Initially the company could not meet Motorola's quality demands, but the American company sent a team of engineers to work with the upstarts, and six months later BYD earned a Six Sigma certification, a universally recognized badge of quality (which Motorola itself invented). The fact that in China machines can be replaced by people for huge cost savings and without sacrifice in quality changes the competitive landscape of the global marketplace. When Motorola and Nokia were pressed to lower their prices by Chinese competitors, they turned to BYD. One of the biggest challenges facing Motorola and other global manufacturers is that Chinese suppliers are getting too good. Their quality, low-priced parts have helped create new, homegrown and extremely aggressive competitors. More than 40 percent of the Chinese domestic handset market now belongs to local companies like Ningbo Bird, Nanjing Panda Electronics, Haier and TCL Mobile. Ningbo Bird will produce 20 million handsets in 2004 and is likely soon to nudge its way into the ranks of the top 10 mobile phone makers in the world. Yet Motorola can't exactly exit the Chinese market. If it did, says Jim Gradoville, Motorola's vice president of Asia Pacific government relations, the Chinese companies that emerged from the crucible of their market would be the leanest and most aggressive in the world, and a company like his would have no idea what hit it. So Motorola stays. Already the largest foreign investor in China's electronics industry, Motorola plans to triple its stake there to more than $10 billion by 2006.

More Power to the Chinese Consumers eneralizing about Chinese business always raises exceptions. The country's crazy quilt of state-owned, village-owned, private and hybrid businesses was stitched together over 25 years of rocky reforms. Peasant entrepreneurs, opportunistic officials, government planners, new urban sophisticates and foreign investors all created operations that best fit the moment they stepped into the evolving market economy. And yet, looking at the marketplace from the broadest perspective, one overwhelming fact stands out. Ninety percent of everything made in China is in oversupply; in other words, nearly every manufacturing industry has surplus capacity. And instead of using cheap labor to push their profit margins higher, Chinese companies use cheap labor to drive down prices to the sweet spots for the great mass of Chinese consumers.

(Page 6 of 10) A Chinese family can live a life comfortably close to that of the American middle class for a fraction of the cost. Though China claims urban per-capita income is $1,000, ''the government numbers on incomes don't tell nearly the whole story on the consumer class, especially not in the eastern cities,'' says Merrill Weingrod of China Strategies. Weingrod, working with Linsun Cheng of the University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth, surveyed incomes in Shanghai and several other cities in industrial centers. ''People tend to have two and three jobs, with many taking in short-term assignments here and there,'' he says. ''Real income in Shanghai, for instance, is close to $2,500 per capita, $5,000 per household.'' The Chinese can, on average, buy nearly five times in goods and services per dollar what an American can with the same dollar in the U.S. ''If you multiply income against China's purchasing power parity,'' Weingrod says, ''Chinese urban incomes approach the buying power of Americans making $12,500 a year. For working couples, that's the equal of $25,000. Do the math, and you can understand why Shanghai looks as prosperous as it does and why it seems like everyone is out shopping all the time.'' According to Weingrod's and Cheng's research, China now has 100 million people who are comfortably middle class. They buy (in reduced measure) what the American middle class buys. The allure of China's market is obvious: the huge volumes of potential sales mean even products with the most modest of margins can earn lots of money. Wilf Corrigan, the chairman and C.E.O. of LSI Logic, an American company in the Chinese video player market, says that Chinese manufacturers have short-circuited one of the most predictable trends in consumer electronic manufacturing. ''Typically,'' he says, ''a new technology would be released at $1,000 in Japan, and it would take two years to drop below $1,000 and make it to the U.S. and Europe, and it would take a total of five to seven years for it to make it into the mass market.'' As features were added, prices rose. Now China's low-cost labor and the vastness of its consumer population are combining to bring bargain electronics into homes in record time. Chinese companies build sophisticated goods with components produced locally and rush them by the millions into their huge domestic market. New companies arise. Competition shrinks the time it takes for new products to appear. New features are added while prices are likely to drop. Anything to pump sales. Corrigan's company is now supplying Chinese consumer electronics manufacturers with the chip sets they need to make digital video recorders, machines that record DVD's and that are displacing VCR's on retail shelves. Currently, the Japanese and Korean brand-name giants have consumers' attention. Corrigan, however, sees no reason DVR's won't go the way of DVD players, plummeting in price as the Chinese enter the competition. Expect the recorders to be on sale for $100 within the next two years.

Collective I.Q. ook, China is the most exciting place in the world right now to be a manufacturer,'' says Mark Wall, president of the greater China region for G.E. Plastics. His operation sells the plastic pellets used to make everything from DVD's to building materials. Within two years G.E. will sell $1 billion in advanced materials, including plastics, in China. Wall, who came to China from G.E. Plastics, Brazil, describes a country in love with manufacturing like no other, where engineers come in excited and readily work long days. Where university students clamor to get into engineering and applied sciences. Like many American manufacturing executives in China, Wall talks about working in China with the delight that young computer whizzes felt when they found cool in Silicon Valley. There's no going to a cocktail party and then trying to talk around the fact that you make things in factories. Wall says he feels at home. He loves it. G.E. has every plan to capitalize on the local zeal for manufacturing. It recently opened a giant industrial research center in Shanghai, and by next year will it employ 1,200 people in its Chinese labs. The company has also set up scholarship programs at leading Chinese technical universities. It will have no shortage of good candidates. The government is pouring resources into creating the world's largest army of industrialists. China has 17 million university and advanced vocational students (up more than threefold in five years), the majority of whom are in science and engineering. China will produce 325,000 engineers this year. That's five times as many as in the U.S., where the number of engineering graduates has been declining since the early 1980's. It is hard to imagine Americans' enthusiasm for engineering sinking lower. Forty percent of all students who enter universities on the engineering track change their minds.

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The case for the ability of American industry to stay ahead of its international competition rests on the national gifts and resources that the U.S. devotes to innovation. Certainly, the confidence of big American companies like Motorola, General Motors and Intel, all of which have billion-dollar-plus stakes in China, is based on the brainpower they have at home. The research gap between the U.S. and China remains vast. In December, Washington authorized $3.7 billion to finance nanotechnology research, a sum the Chinese government cannot easily match within a scientific infrastructure that would itself take many more billions (and years) to build. Yet, when it comes to more mainstream, applied industrial development and innovation, the separation among Chinese, American and other multinational firms is beginning to narrow. 
Last year, China spent $60 billion on research and development. The only countries that spent more were the U.S and Japan, which spent $282 billion and $104 billion respectively. But again, China forces you to do the math: China's engineers and scientists usually make between one-sixth and one-tenth what Americans do, which means that the wide gaps in financing do not necessarily result in equally wide gaps in manpower or results. The U.S. spent nearly five times what China did, but had less than two times as many researchers (1.3 million to 743,000). 
For now, the emphasis in Chinese labs is weighted overwhelmingly toward the ''D'' side -- meaning training for technical employees and managers. Nevertheless, foreign companies are quickly moving to integrate their China-based labs into their global research operations. Motorola has 19 research labs in China that develop technology for both the local and global markets. Several of the company's most innovative recent phones were developed there for the Chinese market. 
Motorola's newest research center is located 40 minutes from Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan, a province in southwestern China. Sichuan is slightly larger than California, but three times as populous. There are around 90 million people in the province, 43 universities and 1.2 million scientists and engineers. Sichuan's fragmented transportation system prevents Chengdu from rivaling the eastern powerhouses as a manufacturing center, but the city is promoting the advantage of its plentiful, relatively low-cost brain pool with its new research corridor, the West High-Tech Zone. And Motorola regards its building -- subsidized generously by the development zone -- as a world center for software engineering. The company now employs more than 150 developers there and has plans to add hundreds more. That will pit it against a growing number of the world's top research-driven enterprises taking advantage of Chengdu's largess: Intel, Ericsson, D-Link, Siemens, Alcatel, Mitsui & Company and Fuji Heavy Industries of Japan and more than 200 other firms in one of the area's special tech districts. 
In all, foreign companies have been involved in establishing between 200 and 400 of their own research centers in China since 1990. China's People's Daily has reported that 400 of the world's transnational corporations have set up research and development projects in China. In part, tax incentives attract such financing. But the biggest incentive of all, of course, is access to China's consumers. The Chinese government knows that foreign tech companies can be coaxed into sharing technology and training in exchange for easier access to the Chinese marketplace. The World Trade Organization forbids formal bargains that demand international tech transfers, but it does not police winks and nudges. 
The likely outcome of all this R.&D. investment in China? Even more overcapacity. Just as China's abundant unskilled workers feed the world more shoes and more gadgets than it needs -- or at least more than it can absorb without forcing prices down -- China's abundance of newly skilled industrialists threatens to swamp the world's most highly prized, high-tech markets. The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this year that in the past three years foreign investors have invested or pledged $15 billion to build 19 new semiconductor factories. China imports 80 percent of the semiconductor chips it needs, $19 billion worth, and the government has made it a point of national pride to end the country's dependence on foreigners. Industry observers seem to agree that China will be able to compete with the world's leading semiconductor makers in a decade, but even before that it may exert strong downward pressure on chip prices. Will there be a 2005 recession in the chip market? Morris Chang, the influential founder of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, the world's largest dedicated independent semiconductor foundry, asked an industry gathering last September. ''Yes, I think there will be,'' he said. And who will cause it? China, thanks to all the capacity it's building.

The China Price 
China now offers the world a labor supply with depth unlike anything ever seen. In a recent policy brief for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Sandra Polaski, a former State Department special representative for international labor affairs, writes that to put things in perspective, ''if all U.S. jobs were moved to China, there would still be surplus labor in China.'' That fact highlights what is most sobering about China's booming economy: it can force down the value of work in any job that is at all transferable.

(Page 8 of 10) In American business this is called the ''China price.'' It is the price American suppliers to other American businesses have to match to keep their customers. It is the price at which Chinese manufacturers can deliver the same goods and services. Last November, the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank noted the complaints that ''automakers have reportedly been asking suppliers for the 'China price' on their purchases.'' It also observed that U.S. suppliers had been asked by their big customers to relocate production to China, or to find subcontractors there. The bellwether of American industry may very well be its foundries. Casting is one of those unsexy industries that rarely get top mention in personal ads. But no amount of buzz could overstate its importance. Without metal casting, the United States would boast hardly any industry at all. The U.S. Energy Information Administration of the Department of Energy notes that more than 90 percent of all manufactured goods and capital equipment use metal castings, or are made with equipment that uses them. The American casting industry is the world's largest, with more than $25 billion in annual sales. Nearly 3,000 foundries are spread across the country, and are especially concentrated in the Midwest. Most are small businesses, with fewer than 100 employees who, on average, outearn their counterparts everywhere else in the world. The metal-casting industry once had generous trade surpluses with the rest of the world, but imported castings have increased their share of the American market by 50 percent since the mid-1990's; they now have 15 percent of the market. Imports from China are growing at between 7 and 10 percent a year, and worldwide by volume China is now the top producer of castings. The effect has been severe pressure on American foundries, 140 of which closed their doors in 2002, the last year for which the American Foundry Society has figures. Bob Schuemann is executive vice president and part owner of Signicast Corporation, a privately held casting business located at the edge of Hartford, Wis. Hartford is one of the state's many midsize towns whose roads are shared by farm tractors and semitrailer trucks making their way to the loading docks of manufacturers that since the 1970's have stayed competitive by migrating out of the urban Midwest and into the more economical countryside. Schuemann, like many, now lives under the sword of the China price. His company owns proprietary technology for producing metal machine parts with extremely high precision. Yet the network effect means that the company's fate is tied in part to the economic vitality of its business community. Wisconsin lost roughly 90,000 of the 2.8 million U.S. manufacturing jobs that disappeared over the last four years. Signicast survived with automation. Robots fill its factory, moving everything from thumb-size precision parts to the boxes in the warehouse. Workers are scarce. Walking through the plant is a lesson in how the hardware business has become a software business. The whole plant seems to be run by smart ghosts. Even so, the company feels the gravity of China's growing influence in manufacturing. Schuemann says some of his corporate customers also want the company to make the move to China and have offered to help cover the costs of doing so. The company won't move. Schuemann fears the Chinese will usurp Signicast's processes and thus its strength. Schuemann knows too that his company's selling points evaporate quickly when overseas investment casters drastically undercut the price of its parts. ''We don't need to match the China price dollar for dollar,'' he says. ''If we stay within 20 percent of their price, our customers will stay with us.'' It's getting harder to keep them anyway, however. The company used to have livelier business with a big local power tool maker, but the customer moved production to China and found jerry-built substitutes for Signicast's high-quality parts. ''Our part was one sturdy piece, and their new one is two inferior pieces,'' Schuemann says. ''Theirs will break more easily, but it's a lot cheaper.''

(Page 9 of 10) The business cards of executives at Milwaukee Valve Company Ltd., located in Wuxi, a city of more than four million outside Shanghai, list the company's address at ''End of Guangrui Road.'' By the outward appearance of the trio of decades-old, corrugated-tin roofed industrial buildings that make up the small factory, ''end of the road'' might seem an apt description. Along the interior of a wall at the back of the factory yard is a pile of wooden kindling that is used to stoke the factory's large furnace when the local electric grid is out of power, which lately has been often. Inside one of the barns, the furnace's orange glow heats and dimly lights a shop that looks little different than that of a foundry early in the last century. Sandboxes with molten brass are assembled manually and set end to end in the black earth floor to cool. While the method looks primitive -- the Chinese have been making castings for 2,500 years -- workers in Wuxi manage to produce quality castings comparable to those made in spiffier factories in the U.S., Europe and Japan. Milwaukee Valve is a family-owned company whose manufacturing is still anchored in the United States. Its management entered China 20 years ago, soon after economic liberalization began. The company's valves are critical components in pipelines used in many industries. A faulty valve produced by one of the company's Chinese suppliers several years ago nearly ended the relationship with China. But that mistake, according to the company's management, is what made this Chinese manufacturer a ''world-class operation.'' Engineers from both countries redesigned the valve and changed the production process. Since then, Milwaukee Valve has stationed five Chinese quality-control engineers as roving inspectors at all of its factories in China. Apply this learning-curve experience at the Wuxi plant to China's manufacturing economy generally, and you get a sense of how the country is moving up the manufacturing feeding chain so quickly. (Of course, no one would be interested in seeing the Chinese improve if the cost of high quality were not still a bargain.) Out in front of the valve factory is another telling symbol of China's competitiveness. It is a small $2,000 truck, a circus car of a truck, and one of many quaint but operable models still turned out by China's state-owned vehicle factories. In the U.S., cheap trucks prone to failure and always in need of new parts would wreck production and delivery schedules by causing down time and burden bottom lines with $50-an-hour mechanic bills. But in China, mechanics can tend such cheap trucks the way pit crews tend Indy cars -- and for less than a dollar an hour. Chinese factories can take advantage of all sorts of machinery that is one, two or three generations past its usefulness in more expensive economies, because the Chinese can afford to run them and fix them. Thus China wrings further cost savings from the manufacturing process, and American companies are forced to go there to get them. ''First there was the wholesale price, then the retail price and now there is the China price, and it is very real,'' says Oded Shenkar, a professor at the Fisher College of Business at Ohio State University. Big manufacturers, Shenkar says, come into their American suppliers with the China price in hand and present ultimatums, often veiled, that the price be met.

The China Savings o politician declares it. There is no Association of Big Box Store Customers beating the drum. But, as nearly any shopping trip in America will teach you, China saves American consumers enormous amounts of money. The worry that Chinese producers are hurting American businesses and eliminating American jobs misrepresents the problem -- at least geographically. While the U.S. trade deficit with China is growing, most of the goods from China, between 60 and 75 percent of them, simply would have been imported in past years from other countries. Still, because the China price forces manufacturers the world over to drop their own prices, the jobs that have not moved have been shaken up all the same, in the U.S. and in other countries. In Mexico, for example, which has lost nearly half a million manufacturing jobs and 500 maquiladora manufacturers, workers earn four times what their Chinese counterparts do. So for Mexican factories to stay competitive, they must get by with fewer hands or smaller profits.

(Page 10 of 10) Americans who would demonize China also have a local problem: the China price is a boon to American consumers. Gary Hufbauer, a senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics, has done some rough math that shows how. ''From time immemorial,'' Hufbauer says, ''most American and Japanese businesses have been reluctant to move their manufacturing to new locales unless they can save at least 10 to 20 percent with the move.'' For the $152 billion worth of goods coming in from China last year, those savings have already been realized. The multiplier effect on the rest of the world's manufacturers, however, dwarfs the savings that come directly from China. Hufbauer figures some $500 billion in goods come from countries that are China's low-wage competitors, and another $450 billion in goods come from China's American and Japanese competitors. That means savings on nearly a trillion dollars of goods. If the savings on that non-Chinese trillion dollars' worth of trade are just 3 to 5 percent, rather than the 20 percent the Chinese can deliver, Hufbauer calculates further savings starting at $500 for the average American household. And people who spend more, get more back. Have a drawer full of $3 T-shirts, a DVD player in every room, a Christmas tree annually encircled with piles of toys? You probably have tons more stuff -- and additional savings -- thanks to the China price. This inexorable downward pressure on prices now shows up even when the prices of raw materials rise, costs that in the past were hurriedly passed on to consumers. The Chinese industrial boom has, for example, pushed up the cost of copper, aluminum, nickel, plastics and nearly every other important industrial commodity. Chinese demand has caused the price of steel to rise 20 percent this past spring. (China is now the world's top steel producer, by the way, while the U.K. has dropped out of the top 10.) Nevertheless, the price of cars, which reflect nearly the entire commodity index, has been weak. In April, cotton climbed to its highest price at this time of year in seven seasons, but the price of clothing declined. American firms can find it hard to compete. ''China hits domestic U.S. manufacturers twice,'' Oded Shenkar says. ''They drive down the price of goods, but they drive up the price of raw materials. It's a wholly different environment.'' And yet it's a good one for Americans too. The efficiencies forced on the market by Chinese factories also hold U.S. inflation in check. Lower inflation means the Federal Reserve can keep interest rates low, making money more freely available for investment in new and stronger industries. Chinese competition forces American businesses -- Signicast, for example -- to use capital as efficiently as possible. And to run their plants full tilt. And to find ways to save on labor costs. The Americans who lost manufacturing jobs over the last three years, and the millions more who are expected to see their white-collar jobs migrate overseas, may have not only China to blame, but also the very economic benefits that China has provided for them. And that's to say nothing of what happens once the Chinese countryside, thinned of its oversupply of farmers, turns into efficient farms. Already the Chinese have their eyes on cash crops. Though it has only recently begun exporting apple juice, China already produces seven times as many apples as the U.S., enough to cause a depression in the price of apple juice worldwide. Whole apples for exports are individually wrapped by hand in a foam sock. Given the country's wealth of manual labor, it can assert dominance in crops that must be tended by hand. 
In a stable China, where its great resource, its people, are allowed to work and spend money in a reasonably well functioning market economy, the growing place of China in a global economy cannot be legislated away with tariffs, quotas or tax incentives for struggling industries. China's strengths cannot be altered by changes in the value of its currency or by restricting the flow of foreign investment into the country. By having changed itself, China is changing the world. That doesn't necessarily mean things will be worse for Americans as the century -- the Chinese century -- unfolds. Following World War II, the nations of Western Europe, Japan and the so-called tiger countries of Asia rose from the ruins, aided, not thwarted, by the strength of the American economy. In turn, those economic booms fed our own. So perhaps we will be as Europe is to us today, and China will be our America. Imagine Pekin, Ill., a few decades from now. It may, like innumerable small Chinese cities today, be accustomed to a stream of foreign business managers. Perhaps the regional boss for a Wanfeng Automotive dealership is there to be host of a ''dig to China contest'': the team that gets closest in 40 minutes might win one of the company's hot new red-and-gold Lucky 8 hybrid sports coupes, worth $4,000. As a promotion, Wal-Mart's new World Store is rolling prices back to 2004 levels for the day -- shoppers are grabbing the steaks and fish, whose prices Chinese consumers have driven up fourfold since then. Wal-Mart might have competition, however, perhaps from a new giant outpost of Homeworld, a Chinese retail giant that has learned to exploit its proximity to Chinese suppliers and beat Wal-Mart on price. A big event scheduled for the evening might get knowing smiles from the town's old-timers. The Foreign Devils, a high-school basketball team from Manhattan, a new suburb of Beijing, is due in for an exhibition game. Provided its flight, on an all new Chinese jumbo jet, arrives on time. Ted C. Fishman, a contributing editor for Harper's Magazine, is writing a book about China's place in the world. This is his first cover article for The Times Magazine.

这是我直接从纽约时报网站上搞到的。有几张配图不知道怎么传上来。文章的几个要点：1、这个世纪将是中国的世纪。2、对美国而言，中国是恶魔和朋友交替出现的怪物3、中国是唯一能完全取代美国的国家4、中国的生活水平比表面看上去的要高许多5、将来中国看美国就象美国现在看欧洲一样，是一个没有活力的死气沉沉的地方。我太忙了，没有时间翻译，但是我觉得这篇文章很值得翻译一下。希望有兴趣者尝试一下。另外，如果不久谁看到有发表的正式翻译文章，不妨贴到这儿来，让我们也看看。

拿机器翻了一下不行啊~~[em06]

简直是不让人看

我来慢慢翻译，在下时间有限，所以我一部分一部分慢慢来，搂主见谅~

我们一向认为中国是一个遥远的在世界另一端的神秘国家，这也肯定就是伊利诺伊州的小城Pekin名字的由来。20多年前，这个在伊利诺伊河边的这个有34，000居民的小城给自己命名为pekin，这个名字来自于中国字1820年以来的首都的名字。据说pekin在地球上刚好在北京的对面。直到1981年，这个小城的高中小组仍然叫做“中国佬”，后来他们改名叫了“龙”。一个聪明而富有前瞻性的决定作出了：就像在美国各地发生的那样，pekin人按照他们自己的方式不可避免的和今天的中国发生了联系，它们之间不仅仅通过一根想象的传过地球的轴线相连，而且还通过世界性的航线，金融市场，远程通信网络还有全球化的欲望相连。 举例来说，玉米。Pekin周围的农民希望4月间美国和中国之间的贸易战会使得中国降低它的进口贸易壁垒并且会在今年进口50万公吨的美国玉米。伊利诺伊州的玉米养殖者将会在出口中获得高于平常的价格，他们已经准备好大规模的港口和河运了。Pekin也是重要的可再生能源生产基地，美国第二大的乙醇（一种可以从玉米中提炼出来的燃料）生产基地。（10%的美国玉米用于提炼燃料）。中国近来超过了日本成为世界第二大的原油消费国，不断增长的中国需求还在使得国际原油价格不断上涨，这使得乙醇成为一种很有吸引力的替代品。并且事实上，今年春天以来一加仑的乙醇价格上升了40美分，带动美国玉米价格也随之上升，这对pekin的工农业来说实在是恩赐。另外一个例子：Excel机械铸造厂是专门生产重工业和矿产业中使用的重型机械的一家本地企业，这个家族企业的老板Doug Parsons（道尔·帕森斯）出于避免失去中国巨大而又便宜的铸造业原料和上午上的考虑，已经把该公司12%的生产转移到了中国。在下一个十年中他还计划把更过的生产转移到国外。还有其他一些原因使得帕森斯在过去的几个月里面一直惦记着中国，铜和铁，象石油一样，在中国的需求的驱动下价格同样高居不下，使得他的企业的成本随之飙升。与此同时，它的那些国际矿产业客户们也购买了大量的他的产品以便扩大生产满足对中国的商品出口需求。帕森斯最近还成立了一家新公司以生产先进的碎岩机，这部分是为了在中国疯狂的公路建设中占得商机（关于这个公路发展的疯狂的一个证明是：中国现在有大约15，000个高速公路方案在建设中，将会为这个国家新增162，000千米的新公路，足以绕地球赤道4圈）。即便是想Pekin新的Wal-mart（沃尔马特）超级市场也受到了来自中国的影响。因为12%的中国对美国的出口商品都会最终出现在沃尔马特的货架上，而沃尔马特和中国之间的贸易也对这个国家的国民生产总值作出了1%的贡献。这个公司正在极力压低价格。它的购买力使得它有能力去指定中国的生产者去生产什么美国的消费者需要的产品。举例来说，沃尔马特以不到200美元的价格出售中国产的戴7英寸液晶屏幕的便携式DVD播放器，这几乎是去年价格的一半。他的竞争者们不得不随之降价。几乎每一个Pekin的购物者在沃尔马特购物的时候都省下了钱，也就是说，他或她也就从中国的零售商那儿获益了。当然，这种特定的关系也使得沃尔马特有能力与Pekin地区的其他零售业者竞争并使得他们破产。

我翻译一点,不足之处敬请原谅!
简而言之,Pekin和美国的许多地方并没有很大的不同.时至今天到处都有中国的身影,她正在影响着我们的生活,不管我们是消费者,供应商还是普通的市民.中国是到目前为止变化最快的巨大经济体,我们对她的反应正像的她的经济一样很快的转变.中国曾经是我们最大的威胁,但以后将会是我们的朋友.她为美国人提供了众多的工作岗位,这对于我们的竞争优势来讲是必要的.中国是世界的制造基地,同时也是潜力最大的市场.中国的工业为发展中国家提供了机会,她急速发展的经济甚至拉动了一些国家的经济发展(最近由于帮助日本经济走出低靡而获得了荣誉)

好，加油！继续，楼上的两位。

辛苦啊，但很多地方还不太符合中文的表达啊

[此贴子已经被作者于2004-7-22 22:14:30编辑过]

[此贴子已经被作者于2004-7-23 0:51:35编辑过]

[此贴子已经被作者于2004-7-23 14:22:55编辑过]

确实是一篇好文章包括了政治经济军事外交战略的内容。爱好英语的朋友可以试试，我从今天开始翻译，希望大家共同进步。[em01]

page 2 of 10 部分译稿请帮忙指出不当之处谢谢各位.简而言之,PEKIN 和大多数美国的其他地区并没有多大的区别;今天,中国的影响已经随处可见,她正在影响着我们的生活无论我们是消费者,供应商还是普通的市民.中国是目前为止世界上发展最快的巨大经济体,经济发展之快另我们目不暇接.假以时日,中国将会成为我们的最大威胁,也可能成为我们下一个朋友.中国从美国吸收了部分领域的工作岗位,(这些领域主要是劳动密集型产业如家具行业,传统夕阳产业比如汽车制造,钢铁造船等,译者注)但这对于增强我们美国具有竞争性的领域是必要的.
中国是世界的制造基地,也是潜力最大的市场.中国的产业将会从发达国家中获取机遇,同样的她的经济繁荣也能推动相对欠发达的国家的经济发展.(最近,由于过去中国一直在帮助日本经济摆脱其低靡状况而获得了赞赏.我觉得是赞赏比较妥当而不是荣誉)中国出口紧缩的经济状况将刺激出口价格的攀升,中国从中受益匪浅.或许中国正在体会到经济即刻的软着陆将会阻止其他亚洲国家经济的崩溃.进来所有关于贸易,工业产值,消费支出和债务的统计数字,仅仅能简单的反映中国现在的经济规模,事实上,中国如同所有经济大国一样存在许多消极因素.另外人们普遍认为中国并没有完全展示当前的实际情况.美国的经济规模相当于中国的8 倍.仅是我们的工业部门规模就比整个中国的经济规模要大.美国的人均资本相当于中国的36倍,中国潜在的道路封锁问题我们没有.他们的银行可能随时面临破产,哪里的穷人和少数民族可能参与叛乱和反抗.过于自信而且傲慢的台湾和蠢蠢欲动而且疯狂的北朝鲜可能会把中国拉入战争.自从1978年以来,中国的国民生产总值翻了4倍,按照不变美元计算,中国的国民生产总值达到1.4亿美元,已经是世界第六大经济体.中国的国际贸易规模过去微不足道,然而现在已经成为世界第三大最有活力的贸易国家.仅次于美国,德国排在日本的前面.TOM SELLER,一个金融记者指出,美国历史上经历了21次经济衰退,一次经济停滞,两次股市大崩溃和两次世界大战都不能阻止美国经济的增长.
美国的在长达一个世纪里国民生产总值由18亿美元增长到10万亿美元.
按照不变美元计算相当于增长了27倍.中国经济正在稳步的朝和我们相似的方向增长.本世纪内,即使中国人均资本没有达到美国的水平,即使美国仍旧保持经济的强势和技术上的领先.中国仍将会是一个前所未有的而且更加可怕的竞争对手.如果说世界上有那个国家能够取代美国在世界市场上的领导地位,那么中国就是怎样的国家.(待续)
[em01][em01]

只管自己看完了，要是让俺打出来，可是要了老命了

PAGE 3 OF 10然而,王峰的工厂的本身是一个没有机器的工厂.以中国当前的形势距离世界经济主宰的地位还有很长的路要走.这里没有一台机器人就是一个有力的证明.替代机器人的是数百名刚从技校出来的年轻人,技校的规模在中国不断的扩大.这些年轻人在组装线中使用小型的不够大的电钻,扳手,塑胶锤.那些可能来自某个西方,韩国或者日本工厂的发动机和面板通过自动传送带从一个工作站台移动到另外一个站台,然后由工人从运输带上拉走放到卡车上.这就是为什么王峰能够以8000美元到10000美元售出豪华的手工吉普(主要的买家是中东的国家)这家公司没有花费数百万美元的巨资购入机器设备用来造车.他们使用的是熟练的技术工人.年平均月仅仅支付一百多美元的工资.少于在底特率雇佣一个新雇员的月平均支出.在沿海经济发达地区工人的月薪水能达到120至160美金是内陆的一半.根据一个咨询公司下属的KURT SALMON 协会的成员 MERRILL WEINGROD 的中国战略研究,王峰并不是
动用中国劳力作为机器替代者的第一人.毛泽东坚信中国通过使用高效而且取之不竭的人力资源能够超越其他发展中国家实现蛙跳式发展.,中国农民和城市劳动者将会取代有100年的发展历史的西方工业强国的昂贵的机器.毛泽东解释道丰富的人口资源是中国的财富.他是正确的.尽管中国50年代末执行大跃进犯下灾难性的错误.最著名的是,毛规劝中国人制造家庭炼铁炉熔化掉他们的铁器用于炼钢.所有这些都是为了一个目标让中国的钢产量超过英国,十五年内超过英国的经济规模.然而,人们在大炼钢运动开始时并没有留下多少可用于炼钢的工具,罐和平底锅.之后他们饿了:中国的大跃进直接导致饥荒,3000万人因为饥荒而死.是历史上最致命的人为灾难.但是共产党恰在这时搞穷了国家并且继续推行完全控制分散劳力的配置,比如说,谁能够走出乡村进入城市---这为后来中国的资本主义的成功到来做好了准备.PRASENJIT DUARA,一个芝加哥中国历史专家熟知这个悖论:共产党能够使劳动力变得温顺,使有组织的劳力变成一个能持续流动的受管理的实体.他说,:一个马克思主义者也能看到中国在毛统治下产生了资本主义发展的条件.共产党建立的社会公共机构提供了住房,教育和医疗保障为后来的资本家节省了开发劳动力的投入.一个服从管理的劳力又降低了管理成本.尽管中国的工厂里拥有数量巨大的工人,但监督这些工人的管理人以西方的标准来看却是非常的少.你可能看到15个管理员管理5000个工人.工人们的自律好的难以置信."这也是为什么中国工人会给世界留下如此深刻的印象."WEINGROD 说:"传统上,中国人把不丢面子当作头等大事"换句话说也就是在生产中不能犯错误.他们的自律和适应能力是推动中国竞争力的关键因素.对于那些不守纪律或者不卖力不集中注意力的工人,总有其他等待脱离农田或者摆脱漂泊无倚靠的所谓流动事业人口的可怜的中国工人愿意取代他们.因此不是廉价的劳力推动了中国的经济."如果你总是只看到低薪水,你就会忽略了中国制造业者降低成本的天分"WEINGROD 说:"最好的行动就以高效来回应世界制造业精英."
[em04][em04]

以下是引用花妖在2004-7-22 21:56:00的发言：
)


嘻嘻，意思完全反了
简而言之,Pekin和美国的许多地方并没有很大的不同.时至今天到处都有中国的身影,她正在影响着我们的生活,不管是消费者,供应商还是普通的市民.中国拥有到目前为止变化最快的巨大的经济体,我们对她的反应正像的她的经济一样很快的转变.不远的将来中国会是我们最大的威胁，而不是朋友.她夺走美国众多的工作岗位,这对保持我们的竞争优势是非常必要的.中国是世界的制造基地,同时也是潜力最大的市场.中国的工业会使其他的发展中国家失去提供机会,即使她急速发展的经济拉动了一些国家的经济发展(最近由于帮助日本经济走出低靡而获得了荣誉)
one moment ，siphons off，steals opportunities ，even as 这些关键词都给漏了，意思完全颠倒了

花妖MM，Henryu 的那句话的确翻得不准确，但是你翻的也不对，“China is at one moment our greatest threat, the next our friend”中时态是现在时，正确的译法应该是“中国这一分钟是我们的最大威胁，下一分钟就成了我们的朋友”，注意这里“the next ”是指the next moment, 跟前一句对齐。而不是指将来。这句话用来描述作者或者美国人对中国爱恨交织的矛盾心理。因为中国夺走了很多美国人的工作，但是，同时又给美国人带来了质优价廉的产品。

zhougolden 朋友加油！大家努力啊

我来倒着翻译一下第十部分。
那些试图妖魔化中国的美国人在当地也面临着问题，那就是中国价格对美国消费者来讲是一种实惠！加里。胡伯尔是国际经济研究所的一名高级研究人员，他曾用一个粗略的计算来显示为什么是这样。“从很久以前（这里作者用了Immemorial这样一个词来表示时间之久远）”胡伯尔说，“大多数美国和日本企业就不情愿把制造部门搬迁到一个新地区，除非通过搬迁能节省至少10-20%的费用”从去年有1520亿美元的商品来自中国这一现象来看。这种“节约”已经实现了。
不过，来自世界各地其它制造业的多种影响，使得直接来自于中国的“节约”被看低了。胡伯尔指出大约5000亿美元商品来自于中国的低价竞争者国家，另有4500亿美元商品来自于中国的美国和日本竞争者。这意味着有将近一万亿美元的商品。胡伯尔说，如果这些非中国来源的一万亿美元商品即便只节省3-5%（而不是20%），那么平均每个美国家庭的家用品就会节省500美元。人们买的越多，省的就越多。（能否想象一下）一抽屉3美元的T恤衫，每一个屋一台DVD，每年都有一大堆玩具围绕着圣诞树？你很可能有成吨的这类东西—省下更多的钱—，噢，要感谢中国价格。
 这种无情的价格走低甚至当原材料价格上涨时也显露出来。过去原材料价格的上涨总是很快就被转嫁到消费者身上。比如中国工业的巨大发展推动了铜、铝、镍、塑料乃至几乎每一种重要工业原料的涨价。中国的巨大需求促成了去年春天钢材价格上涨20%（注意，中国现今已经是世界上最大的钢铁生产国，相形之下，英国已经跌出了前十名之外）。但是，汽车价格，这种几乎反映整体商品的经济指标，却一直走低。4月份，棉花价格涨到了7年来该季度的最高价格，衣服的价格反而跌落了！
 美国工厂发现真的很难去竞争。“中国给了美国国内制造商双重打击！”欧狄得。申科尔说，“他们把商品的价格压低下来，同时有把原材料价格抬高上去。这真的是完全不同的局面了”
但是对美国人这也是一个好事。
（第十部分待续）

感谢轰炸机对我的支持,希望今后的译文都有分段,这样好对照.谢谢大家!

感谢各位的努力。

期待中....

(part 4 of all) 中国的经济奇迹可以以多种方式落实到你的身上。到目前为止，我们之中的大多数知道，对于世界低端生产来说，中国是制造商的选择：相比其它世界上任何国家，她聚集了更多玩具，缝合了更多鞋子并且缝纫了更多的衣物。但是通过提高技术层次，中国已经成为世界电子消费品最大的制造者，比如电视，DVD播放器和移动电话。并且在最近，中国仍旧在技术层次上攀上更高水平，进入生物技术和高技术计算机的生产。相比中国，没有哪个国家能立即在经济发展的每个阶段取得更好的进展。在中国经济占统治性的25年（特别是最近10年）迅速增长的背后是中国巨大的人口这样一个基本事实。中国可能是接近15亿人的家，通过粗略统计，其官方13亿人的人口普查数字相比真实数字低了不少，这个数额粗略等于德国，法国和英国人口的总和。在邓小平主持下，从1978年开始的经济自由化，中国已经开启了数以万计的商机。目前中国脱离农业进入城市工作的劳动力可能超过美国全国的劳动力。在世界范围内，中国不是最便宜劳动力的家。虽然每小时工资为25美分，中国工人比更贫穷的国家如东南亚或非洲的劳动力花费更多。在世界最悲惨的角落，孩子搬运步枪和在矿区工作一天的收入少于一美元。中国是世界工厂是因为其位于相对稳定的区域并且通过几代政府强制的训练，可以提供给制造商一个可靠的，顺从的和有能力的工业劳动力。另一个做出巨大贡献的因素是由于政府使农民离开村庄更容易，现在无数农民离开乡村。的确，过去20年国家对于市场经济的信奉和政府对于那种可以供养他们自己的信仰联合了所有劳动力除了将农民赶出田地。分配给每个农业家庭的小块土地数平均是1.2英亩但是可能是1/18英亩那么小；无数例子表明农民无法凑集足够的钱来组织一个家庭。根据中国政府数据，城市人口平均收入是年均1000美元，这是农村人口平均收入的3倍。这种不等造成了历史上人类最大规模的移民运动。到2010年，将有接近一半的中国人生活在城郊地区。这些数字意味着中国人必须被视为一种世界新秩序的临界群体。伴随着数以亿计消费者日益膨胀的欲望，中国大量低成本制造机器的生产已经使中国人有可能成为这个星球最大的自然资源消费体。中国人（以及世界的其它地方）如何使用那些资源将强烈地塑造我们的经济（以及世界其他地方的经济），就像美国在上一个一百年进行的工业化和扩张一样。 我们已经创造了一个怪物在涉及贸易和工作机会的政治争论中，中国是被世界上的公司选择使用进行低成本生产的地方。这种争论的模式暗示了美国的消费者和公司在这个市场中有着强烈的选择意向；事实上，凭着更多的变化和更有优势的价格，正如像她所做的那样，中国提供了更多的货物，这对美国公司来说，这是一种类似紧身衣一般的选择模式；中国强制了这种选择。此外，中国公司和消费者如何选择他们自身决定了美国公司如何经营。对于中国经济威胁争论是万群动态的和高瞻远瞩的。美国电信巨人，摩托罗拉的经验就给我们上了一课，即不论是在这里还是其他地方，中国的经济规模是如何改变竞争和消费规则的。每个月，在中国有五百万新的订户订购移动电话服务。这个国家的三亿移动电话用户使中国世界上（无数公司抢夺的）最为巨大的市场。因此世界上掌中设备的制造者需要在中国经营。一时间，在欧洲和美国市场趋于饱和的情况下，中国提供这些公司一个机会来发展。而这种情况的发生并不时因为中国是一个卖方市场：对于设备制造商而言，中国也是世界上竞争最为激烈和环境变化最为激烈的地方。无处不出现新的制造商；在大城市的商店里每天都有新的电话问世。有800个流行的掌中设备可供选择。年轻的城郊消费者平均每八个月更换一次手机—他们把旧手机卖掉或送给家庭的其他成员。掌中移动电话在那些年均工资不可能负担一部电话的移动建筑工人手中已经成为北京和上海的普通景观。此外移动电话市场是摩托罗拉在中国开发的市场之一。

以下是引用zhougolden在2004-8-1 11:26:00的发言：
感谢轰炸机对我的支持,希望今后的译文都有分段,这样好对照.谢谢大家!

不用客气，大家共同提高吧。
我现在正倒着从后面翻译，最近准备贴上来。

在世界最悲惨的角落，孩子搬运步枪和在矿区工作一天的收入少于一美元。-----------------------回复CCTWE 朋友的译文其中一句,我的理解是孩子们手持步枪脚踏雷区,不知对不对?

我们已经创造了一个怪物在关于贸易和工作的政治辩论里，中国是一个被世界各国公司用来进行低成本生产的地方。这种争论暗示着美国消费者和公司在这个市场中有着强烈的可选择性；但事实上，凭着花样繁多的商品和甚至更有优势的价格，中国能供应更多的商品，这对美国公司来说，其实并没有更多的选择余地。中国的庞大不仅仅使自己能够制造低价商品，它也迫使价格下跌。中国商界和消费者为他们自己的选择也越来越多地决定了美国公司的经营。关于中国经济威胁的美国政治辩论完全忽略了这种动态变化。美国电信巨人摩托罗拉的经验就给我们上了一课，那就是：不管在哪里，中国如何用庞大的经济规模来改变竞争和消费规则。在中国，每个月都有五百万新用户签约移动电话服务。该国的三亿移动电话用户使之成为世界上最大的市场（而且还有成千上万的新合同待签）。因此世界手机制造商需要登陆中国。在欧洲和美国市场渐趋饱和的情况下，中国给这些公司提供了一个发展机会。中国并不是一个卖方市场：对于设备制造商而言，中国也是世界上竞争最为激烈和环境变化多端的地方。新的制造商无处不在；大城市的商店里每天都有新的电话问世。目前有800款手机可供选择。年轻的城市消费者平均每八个月更换一次手机他们把旧手机卖掉或送给其他家庭成员。北京和上海的外地建筑工人手里拿着移动电话已经成为常事他们的年平均工资可能还负担不起电话费呢。这个移动电话市场就是摩托罗拉在中国开发出来的。
对在公司任期很长的前首席执行官罗伯特·戈尔文来说，80年代早、中期时中国向其许诺了一个大市场，这个市场比摩托罗拉在日本打拼多年挣得的可怜一点儿份额要更大，但是首先公司要帮助建设先进的电讯基础构架。访问中国期间，在一次沉闷的欢迎仪式上，戈尔文发起了事先并没有计划的大胆行动，他转向铁道部长问他是否想作为铁道部长成就点什么，做点什么事情，或者是否他想创造一个世界一流的社会。通过这次行动，戈尔文成功地把准了经济爱国主义的脉。
摩托罗拉公司把进入中国归类为深入而广泛的。戈尔文和他的公司知道把技术向中国转移实际上最终会导致产生可怕的中国竞争对手。然而，摩托罗拉决定最好的策略是早日进入中国。不久，摩托罗拉给中国政治领导人的报告其中充满了使之成为美国制造典范的关于工业质量的传教式的词汇很快就被中国领导层复述出来。戈尔文也把最好的技术带到中国。今天的证据就是其移动电讯网的庞大和高效：信号可以穿过高架公路、地铁列车和边缘山村被用户接收。但在美国这些会阻碍移动电话收到信号。
摩托罗拉公司没有预见的是中国市场将会变成全球最富有竞争力的。诺基亚和摩托罗拉正在为中国手机市场的份额激烈拼争。德国、韩国、和台湾制造商的加入使竞争更加激烈。所有的这些境外商标如今都面临都面临着中国本土手机制造商的激烈竞争。“竞争在中国循环上升，”位于Insead的法国商业学校研究人员田自锐说。“起先国外厂商的产品比国内便宜得多，但当本地公司开始给多国公司供货时，供应网扩张很快，随后中国本土制造商开始在中国利用这些零配件组装，并把产品价格压低到远低于国外厂商”。
摩托罗拉的最重要供应商之一是位于深圳、靠近香港的电池生产者BYD（比亚迪）有限公司。仅仅10年，这家公司就从名不见经传发展到占据全球手机电池的一半以上。比亚迪出现以前，手机电池是由高度自动化的工厂生产的，比如由日本三洋或索尼旗下的公司。但是比亚迪也象万丰一样把机器人和机器从生产线上赶走，代之以劳动大军。比亚迪付出的是中国工人的工资，而不是花数以百万美元购买美国、日本、德国的机器，这样就大幅度降低了电池价格。起初公司的电池质量并不能满足摩托罗拉的要求，但美国公司派出一些工程师与其合作，仅仅6个月之后，比亚迪就赢得了被广泛认可的6西格马认证（这正是摩托罗拉的发明）。在中国机器可以被人取代以节约大量金钱并且不以牺牲产品质量为代价这个事实大大改变了全球市场的竞争环境。摩托罗拉和诺基亚面对中国竞争者的压力被迫降价时，他们选择了比亚迪。
摩托罗拉和其他世界级制造商所面临的最大挑战是中国供应商如此之好，其质量、低价零部件有助于产生新的本土成长并且特别富有进取心的竞争者。现在超过40%的中国国内市场被本土公司，如宁波波导、熊猫电子、海尔、TCL移动等所占领。宁波波导2004年将生产2000万部手机, 很可能不久就能排名世界10大移动电话生产商并引起注意。但是摩托罗拉不可能完全退出中国市场。如果真的这样，摩托罗拉亚太区政府关系部副总裁吉姆·格兰德维尔说，中国公司就会从最初受到市场的严峻考验变成世界上最倾斜、最雄心勃勃的公司，这样的一个公司你不知道怎么样才能击败它。因此摩托罗拉仍然会留在这里。摩托罗拉已经是中国电子工业的最大外国投资商，它还打算到2006年将股份增加到原来的3倍，超过100亿美元。中国消费者的强大消费能力对中国企业的概括总是会出现例外。全国的国有、村营、私有和合资企业等的疯狂大杂烩在25年多的坚定改革中聚集到了一起。农民企业家、机会主义官员、政府政策制定者、新的城市中老于世故的人和外国投资者们都在向市场经济发展过程的某一时刻拿出最适合当时情况的行动。不过，从最广泛的预期角度看市场，你会发现一个不争的事实，中国造商品中的90%是过剩的；换言之，几乎每一个工业部门都有过剩的生产能力。中国公司应用廉价劳动力来压减价格以满足大量中国消费者的需求热点，而不是用廉价劳动力来增加利润。
一个中国家庭只需用一个零头就能过上舒适的美国中产阶级式的生活。虽然中国宣布城市人均收入是1000美元。“政府收入数字并没有讲出消费阶级的全部故事，尤其是在东部城市，”“中国策略”的莫瑞尔·韦格罗德说。韦格罗德与麻省大学达特茅斯分校的程麟荪合作，调查了上海和其他几个工业中心城市的收入。“人们倾向于有2-3份工作，在不同地方的短期工作会有许多收入”，他说，“比如上海的真实收入接近人均$2500,户均5000美元。”平均起来，在中国每一美元大约可以买到同样的美元数在美国所能买到商品或服务的5倍，“用中国的购买力平价乘以收入，” 韦格罗德说，“中国城市居民的购买力相当于美国一年$12500的收入。对于双职工家庭来说，这等于25000美元。通过计算你可以明白为什么上海看起来这么繁荣，为什么看起来每一个人似乎都是总在购物。”
按照韦格罗德和程麟荪的研究，中国现有一亿人属于生活舒适的中产阶级阶层。他们（用更低的价格）购买购买美国中产阶级购买的商品。中国市场的诱惑是显著的：巨大的潜在销售意味着即使是薄薄的一点儿利润也能挣大钱。
韦尔夫·克里根是一家涉足中国录像播放器市场的美国公司LSI逻辑公司的总裁和主席。他说，中国制造商大大缩短了电子消费品制造上大多可预测的趋势。“典型的情况是”，他说，“一项新技术将在日本以1000美元公布，然后用2年时间降到1000元以下并传到美国和欧洲，再用大约5-7年传到广大市场”，如果有了新功能，价格还会上升。现在中国的低价劳力和巨大的消费群体相结合，用更短的时间把电子产品交易带回家。中国公司用当地生产的零件组装复杂的商品，大批量地抢占巨大的国内市场。新的公司如雨后春笋。竞争减少了新产品上市的时间。新功能在增加，但价格反而在下降。公司为了促进销售各显神通。
克里根的公司现正在向中国电子消费品制造商供应制造数码音像记录设备所需的芯片，用来进行DVD录制和取代市场上的VCR9（盒式录像机）。现在日本和韩国品牌巨人引起了消费者的注意。克里根看不出来有什么理由DVR不能象DVD一样：一旦中国加入竞争，价格就会大幅下降。预期录像机将在2年内上市，售价100美元。网罗智慧“看，在制造国中，中国现在是世界上最令人兴奋的的地区”,马克·沃尔，这个GE塑料大中华区总裁如是说，他的公司销售的塑料用于制造从DVD到建筑材料的每一个种产品。两年之内GE在高级材料-包括塑料在内-的销售额将达到10亿美元。沃尔是从GE塑料巴西分部来到中国的，他描述了一个国家，跟任何其他国家不一样地热爱制造业，工程师们兴奋地到来、准备长时间的工作。在校大学生们喧哗着涌进工程和应用科学专业。象很多在中国的美国制造业执行官一样，沃尔兴奋地谈到在中国的工作，当年轻的计算机人才们发现在硅谷工作很酷时，他们的感觉。这里不会有鸡尾酒会，以及会上你试图谈你在工厂做什么。沃尔说感觉象是在家一样，他热爱这工作。对当地对制造业的热情，GE有多个投资计划。最近它在上海新开了一个大型工业研究中心，明年在中国实验室将雇用1200个人。公司也在主要的中国技术类大学设立了奖学金，这样公司就不会再缺乏好的候选人。
中国政府正倾力创造一个世界上最大的工业大军。全国目前有1700万大学和高等职业学校学生（过去五年里增加了3倍以上），其中大多数是理工科。今年将新增32.5万工程人员，这一数字是美国的5倍。后者自80年代以来工科学生数就一直在下降，很难想象美国人对工科的兴趣会下降到多么低，进入大学的工科学生们有40%会改变主意（不愿从事这类工作）。
美国工业能力领先于国际竞争对手的局面有赖于美国努力革新的各种国内资源，当然，大型美国公司，象摩托罗拉、通用动力、英特尔（他们在中国都有10亿美元以上的股份），他们的信心还是来自于国内的智力资源。毕竟中美间的科研鸿沟仍然很大。12月份，华盛顿拨款37亿美元用于资助纳米技术研究。以中国需要投入大量时间和金钱来建设的基础科学结构上来看，这一数字是中国政府难以企及的。但是当更多的主流性、应用性的工业发展和革新出现，中国与美国和其他跨国公司的差距开始缩小了。
去年中国在研发上投入了600亿美元，仅次于美国的2820亿美元和日本的1040亿美元，这两个国家是仅有的超过中国的国家。但是，中国的现状会迫使你做一点儿数学：中国工程师和科学家收入只有美国同行的1/6-1/10。所以在资金投入上的巨大差异并不必然意味着会导致同样大小的人力或结果上的差距。美国的资金投入是将近中国的5倍，但是研究人员不到中国的2倍（130万对74万3千人）。
目前，中国实验室的最主要定位在于“D”层面，也就是培训技术雇员和经理人。然而外国公司正快速的把中国实验室融入其全球研发中去。摩托罗拉在中国有19个实验室用于为本地和全球市场发展技术。公司最近的几款最富有革新意义的电话是本地发展来供应中国市场的。
摩托罗拉的最新研究中心距中国西南省份四川省会成都40分钟的路程。四川比加州略大，但人口是其三倍之多。其人口大约9000万，有43所大学和120万科学家与工程师。四川与外界分割的交通运输系统阻碍了成都成为能跟东部经济源头竞争的制造中心，但该市正在利用其丰富而相对低廉的智力资源上的优势开发新的科研基地西部高技术发展区。摩托罗拉把该中心看作为一个软件工程的世界中心其建设得到了开发区的大力资助。公司现雇有150多名研发人员，并且计划在增加数百名。这使得它能够利用成都的巨大优势跟不断增加中的世界顶级研究型企业包括英特尔、爱立信、D-Link、西门子、阿尔卡特、Mitsui & Company、日本的富士重工业以及超过200家其他公司在一个特别的高技术区相竞争。
总体上，外国公司自90年代以来已经在中国建立了200-400个自己的研发中心。中国的《人民日报》报道有400多个世界级的跨国公司在中国建立了研发项目。税率优惠是吸引投资的部分原因，但是当然，最大的刺激因素是可以更近的靠近中国消费者。中国政府知道外国高技术公司可以被说服同意用技术、培训来换取更容易的进入中国市场。世界贸易组织禁止要求国际间技术转移的正式交易，但并不能监督眼色和暗示。
所有这些在中国的研发投资会有什么最可能的结果？甚至生产更加过剩！单是中国未经训练的大量工人就已经能供应整个世界所需要的鞋和大量小玩意儿或者至少在没有价格下降时所能吸纳的还要多中国丰富的熟练工人要横扫世界上最高价的高技术市场。今年早些时候华尔街杂志报道报道说，在过去3年里，外国投资人已经投资或意向投资150亿美元以建设19个新的半导体工厂，中国所需半导体芯片的80%需要进口，总价值190亿美元。政府将结束对外国的依赖宣传为一种国家骄傲。工业观察家似乎同意中国在10年里将能与世界顶级半导体制造商相抗衡。但是即使在此以前就已经对芯片价格产生一个强降价压力。2005年芯片市场会衰退吗？张忠谋，台湾半导体制造业一个有相当影响的奠基人，世界最大的专职独立半导体代工厂，在去年9月的一个工业集会上这样发问。“是的，我认为会”，他说，那么谁造成的？中国！这是由于它建设中的强大生产能力。

中国价格中国现正在向全世界以前所未有的深度供应劳动力。最近在卡内基国际和平基金会的政策简报上，桑德拉·波拉斯基，一个前国务院国际劳工问题特别代表，撰文展望时说，“即便美国的所有工作全部转移到中国，他们仍然会有剩余劳动力”。这个事实彰显了中国蓬勃发展的经济一个最冷静的局面：它迫使所有可转移工作压低劳工价格。在美国企业，这被称为“中国价格”。这是迫使美国供应商向其他美国企业供货时必须看齐以保住客户的价格。这是中国制造商能够提供同样商品和服务的价格。去年11月，芝加哥联邦储备银行注意到有人抱怨说“汽车生产商据信向（零件）供应商咨询中国价格事宜”，据观察美国供应商被其大客户要求搬到中国生产，或者至少到哪里找到转包商。美国工业的领头羊在铸造领域表现十分出色。铸造是并不引人注目的工业之一，在个人广告上很难引起高度重视。但是没有什么部门会忽视其重要性。没有金属铸造，美国工业几乎有什么发展。美国能源部所属能源信息管理局发现超过90%的制造业商品和资本装备用到金属铸造,或者以使用铸造的装备来制造。美国铸造业为全球之冠，年销售额超过250亿美元。大约3000家企业分布在全国各地，尤其集中于中西部地区，它们大多数是小企业，平均员工数不足一百人，但收入超过世界上的任何同行。金属铸造业一度与世界其他地区存在丰厚的贸易盈余，但是进口模具在90年代中期以来在美国市场的份额已经增长了50%，目前占据了市场的15%。来自中国的进口一年增长7-10%，在世界范围内中国的规模已经是顶尖地位。结果是对美国企业造成了严重压力，2002年有140家被迫关门，这是去年美国铸造业协会给出的数据。鲍波·舒曼是Signicast公司的执行副总裁和部分拥有者，这家公司位于威斯康星州哈特福德边远地带，是一家私营铸造企业。哈特福德是这个州的诸多中等大小的城镇之一，其公路还跑着农用拖拉机，和驱车前往当地制造商的装货场的许多半拖型卡车，70年代以来这些制造商通过从中西部市区移到更为经济的乡村地区而一直保持竞争优势。舒曼如今像很多他的同行一样，也生活在中国价格的剑下。他的这家公司拥有生产非常高精确度的金属机器零配件的专利技术，可是网络效应意味着公司的命运部分地跟其所属商业部门的经济重要程度联系在一起。过去4年里美国所失去的280万个制造业工作，大约有9万个在威斯康星。Signicast 因其自动化程度高而存活下来. 工厂里遍布的机器人能把货仓里所有产品甚至姆指大小的精密部件装箱，但是工人数却很少。穿过这家工厂，你能学习一家硬件企业怎么变成了一个软件企业。整个工厂看起来就像是由智慧神灵控制的。即便如此，公司还是感受到了中国在制造业不断增长的影响的巨大引力。舒曼说，他的一些合作伙伴也希望公司能转移到中国去，并且提供帮助资助相关转移费用。但公司不想转移。舒曼担心中国人盗取公司的生产流程并加强实力。舒曼也知道海外铸造投资者大幅削减零件价格时，他的公司有许多卖点很快蒸发了。“我不需要跟中国价格一块钱一块钱的去争”，他说，“如果我们的价格保持在高过他们20%之内，客户就会选择我们。”但是现在要维持这样已经越来越困难了。过去公司经营更为活跃，还有当地强有力的工具生产商配合，但是客户已经把生产搬到了中国并在当地找到了Signicast高质量配件的中国产豆腐渣替代品。“我们的零件非常耐用，而他们的是两件劣质品。”舒曼说，“他们的产品更容易断裂，但是价格的确很便宜！”密尔沃基阀门有限公司，位于无锡这个离上海不远、人口超过400万的城市。其管理人员的名片上写着公司的地址在“广瑞路尽头”。就三个数十年之老、锡瓦楞屋顶的工业楼所组成的小工厂而言，“路尽头”像是一个准确的描述。工厂后院沿着墙内侧堆放了许多木材用来在当地断电时给工厂的大锅炉添料。这种事最近经常发生。在巨大厂房的里面，锅炉里跳动着桔黄色的火苗，暗淡的照亮着一个商店，看起来跟上世纪早期的铸造厂没有什么两样。工人手工组装用熔化的铜做成的沙箱，底对底放到发黑的土地来降温。而方法看起来很原始 — 中国有超过2500年的铸造史 — 无锡的工人们设法生产质量能够跟在美国、欧洲和日本的更漂亮的工厂所生产的模具同样质量的产品。密尔沃基阀门公司是一家家族式企业，它们的生产仍然扎根在美国。他们20年前进入中国，不久经济改革开始了。公司的阀门是许多工业部门都要用到的管道的关键零件。几年前公司的一个供应商生产的有缺陷的产品几乎终结了他们跟中国的关系。但是，公司管理层说，这个错误却使得中国生产商最终成为“世界级水平”。来自两个国家的工程师重新设计了阀门改变了生产流程，此后密尔沃基阀门公司有5个中国质量控制工程师驻在当地,巡回在各地工厂检查质量。把无锡工厂的学习-曲线经验用到中国的制造业经济，通常你会感觉出这个国家的确正在快速前进，也会感觉出制造商们如何快速地满足供应链。（当然，如果高质量的代价不再是合理交易，没有人会有兴趣去看中国的提高）摆在阀门厂面前的是另一个中国竞争力的传奇符号。这是一种2000美元的小型卡车，卡车型的马戏团车，其中一种模样怪怪的但能开的型号仍然在中国的国有车辆厂生产。在美国，廉价卡车很容易罢工，总需要更新零件，因为停工造成生产停顿，运输日程改变，还要负担至少每小时50美元的机修费。但是在中国，机械师会用印第赛车被照料的方式照料这些便宜卡车每小时费用还不到一美元。中国工厂能利用各种第一代第二代第三代的机械，因为中国人负担得起运行和维修。这样中国从制造流程上节省更多的费用，美国公司被迫到那里分一杯羹。“最初是整体价格，后来是零售价格，现在则是中国价格，这是非常真实的”，俄亥俄州立大学菲舍尔商学院教授欧迪德·申克尔说。大型制造商手里握着中国价格走向美国供应商，出示最后通牒，恫吓式的要求其价格必须得到满足。中国节约没有一个政客会这么说。并没有一个大盒（BIG BOX）商店顾客协会在敲锣打鼓地宣传。但是几乎美国的每一个购物之旅都会这么教你。中国节约了美国消费者数不清的钱。那种认为中国制造业正在损害美国企业和大幅度减低美国工作机会的担心扭曲了问题至少在地理层面上。美国对中国的贸易赤字在增加，但大多数来自于中国的商品，有60-75%在过去年份里是从其他国家进口的。而且中国价格迫使世界各地的制造商降低其价格，没有发生（工厂）转移的工作在美国和其他国家等许多地区一样，都是岌岌可危。比如墨西哥失去了将近五十万制造业工作，和500家外资合作工厂，工人们的收入是中国同行的4倍高，因此对墨西哥人来说，要保持竞争力，他们必须要么减少人手，要么选择降低利润。那些试图魔化中国的美国人在当地也面临着问题，那就是中国价格对美国消费者来讲是一种实惠！加里·胡伯尔是国际经济研究所的一名高级研究人员，他用一个粗略的计算来显示为什么是这样。“从很久以前（这里作者用了Immemorial这样一个词来表示时间之久远）”胡伯尔说，“大多数美国和日本企业就不情愿把制造部门搬迁到一个新地区，除非通过搬迁能节省至少10-20%的费用”。但从去年有1520亿美元的商品来自中国这一现象来看，这种“节约”已经实现了。不过，来自世界各地其它制造业的多种影响，使得直接来自于中国的“节约”被看低了。胡伯尔指出大约5000亿美元商品来自于中国的低价竞争者国家，另有4500亿美元商品来自于中国的美国和日本竞争者。这意味着有将近一万亿美元的商品。胡伯尔说，如果这些非中国来源的一万亿美元商品即便只节省3-5%（而不是20%），那么平均每个美国家庭的家用品就会节省500美元。人们买的越多，省的就越多。（能否想象一下）一抽屉3美元的T恤衫，每一个屋一台DVD，每年都有一大堆玩具围绕着圣诞树？你很可能有成吨的这类东西省下更多的钱噢，要感谢中国价格。这种无情的价格走低甚至当原材料价格上涨时也显露出来。过去原材料价格的上涨总是很快就被转嫁到消费者身上。比如中国工业的巨大发展推动了铜、铝、镍、塑料乃至几乎每一种重要工业原料的涨价。中国的巨大需求促成了去年春天钢材价格上涨20%（注意，中国现今已经是世界上最大的钢铁生产国，相形之下，英国已经跌出了前十名之外）。但是，汽车价格，这种几乎反映整体商品的经济指标，却一直走低。4月份，棉花价格涨到了7年来该季度的最高价格，衣服的价格反而跌落了！美国工厂发现真的很难去竞争。“中国给了美国国内制造商双重打击！” 欧迪德·申克尔说，“他们把商品的价格压低下来，同时有把原材料价格抬高上去。这真的是完全不同的局面了”但是对美国人这也是一个好事。中国工厂所赋予市场的高效率也抑制了美国的通货膨胀。低通货膨胀率意味着美国联邦储备局可以维持低利率，让各种新兴的和强力工业部门可以更为方便的得到投资资金。中国的竞争也迫使象Signicast这样的美国企业尽可能有效的利用资金，全速地运行其工厂以及找到降低劳工费用的方法。过去三年里丢掉制造业工作的美国人，以及预期将眼睁睁的看着数百万白领工作转移到海外的数百万之众，不能仅仅责备中国，他们也会享受到中国提供给的非常经济的好处。很难说一旦中国减少其农村过多的农民并转入有效率的工厂，将会发生一些什么。中国人已经把注意力放在了把农产品变为现金上。尽管只是在最近，中国才开始出口苹果汁，考虑到中国的苹果产量是美国的7倍，其产品必将在世界范围内压低苹果汁的价格。所有出口的苹果都是一个一个用手工包装在泡沫袋里，若计入中国的（廉价）人工费用，他们必定在那些必须用手工的农产品方面占尽优势。在一个稳定的中国，巨大的资源和人民被允许在发展完善的市场经济里合情合理的工作、花钱，全球经济里的这个增长中的中国不可能被拼斗中的工业以关税、产品配额和税率刺激挡在外面。中国的强大不可能因货币值改变而改变，也不会因外国投资进入受限而改变，中国通过改变自己也改变了世界。这并不意味着对美国人来说事情会变得更糟，因为这个世纪中国世纪—已经呈现出来。二战后，西欧、日本和所谓的亚洲小虎国家从废墟中站起来，他们得到了强大的美国经济的援助，而不是阻碍。这些地区经济的蓬勃发展也满足了我们的需要。因此，一如当年美国之于欧洲一样重要，中国将会变成今天的美国。想象一下几十年后的PEKIN小城吧。它可能会像今天数不清的中国小城一样，已经习惯了面对外国商业管理人员的人流。可能万峰汽车经销商的地区老板正在这里主持一个“挖向中国竞赛”：40分钟内靠得最近的那个队可赢得价值4000美元、公司热销的新款红+金黄色幸运8 混合运动跑车。作为一项促销措施，沃尔马的新世界商场正将当天的价格调到2004年水平购物者正抢购牛排和鱼，其价格已经被中国人的巨大需求炒到了今天的4倍之高。沃尔马可能还会有竞争力，但是一个从家园（Homeworld, 应该是作者虚构的一个地区）偏远地区发迹的新巨人，一个中国的零售业巨人，利用自己对中国供应商的优势，在价格上击败了沃尔马。一个定于晚上的重要事件赢得了镇上长辈们的开心。外国恶魔队，来自北京一个被称为“曼哈顿”的新郊区的棒球队，将来进行一场展示比赛。该队乘坐全新的中国产巨型喷气式客机，航班将于晚上准时到达。

以上是我翻译的后面部分。加上前面众人的努力，整篇文章已经初具雏形。待我将前面部分整理以后将一个完整的《中国世纪》奉献给大家，也希望能对得起我这个刚刚获得的贵宾称号。大家如有什么建议、观点，敬请指教。多谢。

敢问轰炸机你是什么行业的厉害啊?[em04]

编辑整理后,文章能拿去报社发表吗,比如参考消息等等.

希望有志者能把它翻译出来，纽约时报最新文章The Chines ... 【关公战秦琼】假如俄毛坚持把Mig1.44造出来，那么它能 ... 美国《纽约时报》：想杀妖怪？把它外包给中国人翻译贴纽约时报报道纽约最新死亡人数已经38人希望本站能把跟贴顶置到前面希望能把字体调大一点谁能把这段猴子文翻译一下？味道不对谁能把这段猴子文翻译一下？味道不对 [翻译]纽约时报4/17:王千源谁能把这篇帖子翻译一下谁能把古代的情诗翻译过来美裔中国籍委员：希望能活着看到体制改革成果出来