给力的一篇文章（转自龙腾网）基地在中国，伊斯兰暴乱在 ...

基地在中国，伊斯兰暴乱在新疆，中国以及美以阿的中东计划

Al Qaeda in China, Islamic Insurgency in Uighur-Xinjiang, China and the US-Saudi-Israeli Plan for th

作者:翻译加工厂 发布日期:2014-02-10 浏览:3029

译文简介:
以1982年以色列入侵黎巴嫩和占领贝鲁特期间担任以色列外交部长依农的名字命名的依农计划，即在中东和北非地区实行的分而治之的地缘战略计划将会延续下去。那次入侵和占领造成了大约25000人死亡。
译文来源:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/chi ... middle-east/5348325
正文翻译:

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By Andrew McKillop



THE YINON PLAN LIVES ON

依农计划将长期延续

Named after Israel’s minister of foreign affairs at the time of the 1982 invasion of Lebanon and occupation of Beirut, with about 25 000 dead, this divide-and-rule geostrategy plan for the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) lives on.

以1982年以色列入侵黎巴嫩和占领贝鲁特期间担任以色列外交部长依农的名字命名的依农计划，即在中东和北非地区实行的分而治之的地缘战略计划将会延续下去。那次入侵和占领造成了大约25000人死亡。

Already victims of this strategy since 2011 – operated by Israel, the US and Saudi Arabia – we have the divided and weakened states of Iraq, Libya, Yemen and Syria. Egypt and even Tunisia can also possibly be added to the list. Others can be identified as likely short-term target victim countries.

从2011年以来，这个由以色列，美国和沙特阿拉伯操盘的战略已经造成的受害国包括伊拉克，利比亚，也门和叙利亚，这些国家被分裂和削弱，甚至埃及和突尼斯还可能位列其中。还有其他国家也可能被认定为短期目标受害国。

In February 1982 the foreign minister Oded Yinon wrote and published ‘A Strategy for Israel in the Nineteen Eighties‘, which outlined strategies for Israel to become the major regional power in the Middle East. High up the list of his recommendations was to decapitate and dissolve surrounding Arab states into sub-nations, warring between themselves. Called the peace-in-the-feud or simply divide and rule, this was part of Yinon’s strategy for achieving the long-term Zionist goal of extending the borders of Israel, not saying where but potentially a vast region. His strategy was warmly and publicly supported by leading US policy makers with close ties to Israel, like Richard Perle, by the 1990s.

1982年2月的外长乌迪德依农撰写并发表了《以色列在一九八零年代的策略》一文，其中概述了以色列成为中东地区主要区域力量的战略。 在他的建议里列为首位的便是让这些国家群龙无首，让其周边的阿拉伯国家解体成为准国家，它们之间相互攻杀。所谓的别国争斗中的和平，或者简言之，分而治之策略，是依农战略的一部分。依农战略包括实现犹太复国主义者长期目标：扩大以色列的边界，没有指明边界扩展到哪里，但潜在包括广大的地区。及至1990年代，他的策略受到美国主要政策制定者的热烈和公开的支持。这些政策制定者与以色列有密切联系，里面有理查德·珀尔这样的人。

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This regional balkanization plan is centred on the exploitation of ethnic, religious, tribal and national divisions within the Arab world. Yinon noted the regional landscape of the MENA was “carved up” mainly by the US, Britain and France after the defeat and collapse of the Ottoman empire in 1917. The hastily traced and arbitrary borders are not faithful to ethnic, religious, and tribal differences between the different peoples in the region – a problem exactly reproduced in Africa, when decolonization started in the 1950s and 1960s. Yinon went on to argue this makes the Arab world a house of cards ready to be pushed over and broken apart into tiny warring states or “chefferies” based on sectarian, ethnic, national, tribal or other divisions.

这一将本地区巴尔干化计划的中心点在于利用阿拉伯世界中的种族，宗教，部落和民族分裂。 依农指出，中东和北非地区的区域版图“景观”是在1917年奥斯曼帝国的失败和崩溃后，主要由美国，英国和法国“人工修剪”而成。匆匆划定、任意切割的边界并没有遵循该地区的不同民族之间的种族，宗教和部族差异 – 这个问题在非洲开始于20世纪五六十年代的非殖民化后一模一样地再现了。 依农接着说这些（无视差异的版图）让阿拉伯世界成为沙滩之塔，一推即垮，基于宗派，种族，民族，部落或其他分歧分裂成一堆小邦国或者“失败国家”征战不已。

Central governments would be decapitated and disappear. Power would be held by the warlord chiefs in the new sub-nations or ‘mini-states’. To be sure, this would certainly remove any real opposition to Israel’s coming regional dominance. Yinon said little or nothing about economic “collateral damage”.

那些中央政府将被削平和消失。权力将由在新成立的准国家或“袖珍国家”军阀首领掌控。显然，以色列未来区域支配地位的任何真正的反对力量将被消除。 但是依农对经济上的“附带损害”不置一词。

To be sure, US and Saudi strategy in the MENA region is claimed to be entirely different, or in the Saudi case similar concerning the means – decapitating central governments – but different concerning the Saudi goal of creating a huge new Caliphate similar to the Ottoman empire. Under the Ottomans nations did not exist, nor their national frontiers, and local governments were weak or very weak.

可以肯定的是，美国和沙特的中东和北非地区战略据称是完全不同的，或者在沙特看来，只有手段类似 – 削平其他中央政府 - 但沙特的目的不同，沙特想要建立一个类似奥斯曼帝国的庞大的新的哈里发。在奥斯曼帝国统治下不存在国家，也不存在国界，地方政府弱而又弱。

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Al QAEDA: The new US-NATO conscript army in the MENA region, and beyond.

基地组织：美国北约在中东北非地区的新征兵计划及其深远影响



ISLAMIC INSURGENCY IS WELL KNOWN IN CHINA

伊斯兰的反叛在中国广为人知

China knows plenty about Islamic insurgency and its potential to destroy the nation state. Even in the 1980s and 1990s, some 25 years ago, China had an “Islamic insurgency” threat concentrated in its eastern resource-rich and low population Xinjiang region. Before that, since the early days of the Peoples’ Republic in the 1950s, China has addressed Islamic insurgency with mostly failed policies and strategies but more recently a double strategy of domestic or local repression, but aid and support to Islamic powers thought able to work against djihadi insurgents – outside China – has produced results.

中国深知伊斯兰叛乱及其对民族国家的潜在破坏性。即使是在20世纪80年代和90年代，大约25年前，中国经历过集中在新疆东部资源丰富人口稀少地区的威胁。在此之前，在20世纪50年代人民共和国建立之初，中国试图解决伊斯兰叛乱问题，但是大多数政策和策略都是失败的，但最近采用了双重策略，即在国内或地方采取压制手段，但在国外却援助和支持那些能够抑制“圣战”叛乱分子的伊斯兰国家。这种双重策略已经取得了效果。

The Chinese strategy runs completely against the drift of Western policy and favours Iran.

中国战略：反抗西方，襄助伊朗。

A report in ‘Asia Times’, 27 February 2007, said this: “Despite al-Qaeda’s efforts to support Muslim insurgents in China, Beijing has succeeded in limiting (its) popular support….. The latest evidence came when China raided a terrorist facility in the country’s Xinjiang region, near the borders with Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Kirgizstan. According to reports, 18 terrorists were killed and 17 were captured”.

在2007年2月27日《亚洲时报》的一份报告对此表示：“尽管基地组织试图支持中国的穆斯林叛乱分子，北京已经成功限制其民众的支持.....最新的证据是，中国在新疆地区突袭了恐怖分子的设施，该地区靠近巴基斯坦，阿富汗，塔吉克斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦的边界。据报道，18名恐怖分子被打死，17人被抓获。”

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Chinese reporting, even official white papers on defence against terror are notoriously imprecise or simply fabricated. The official line is there is no remaining Islamic insurgency and – if there are isolated incidents – China’s ability to kill or capture militants without social blowback demonstrates the State’s “hearts and minds” policy in Xinjiang, the hearth area for Chinese Muslims, is working.

中国的报告，甚至官方的防范恐怖白皮书是出名地不准确，或干脆捏造。官方说法是不存在伊斯兰叛乱残余分子 – 即使有一些孤立的事件 - 中国有能力消灭捕获这些武装分子而不招致社会反对充分证明了国家在中国穆斯林的聚居地新疆的“攻心”政策，正在取得成效。

Chinese official attitudes to Islamic insurgency are mired with veils of propaganda stretching back to the liberation war against anti-communist forces. These featured the Kuomintang which had a large Muslim contingent in its Kuomintang National Revolutionary Army. The Muslim contingent operated against Mao Zedong’s central government forces – and fought the USSR. Its military insurgency against the central government was focused on the provinces of Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang and continued for as long as 9 years after Mao took power in Beijing, in 1949.

中国对待伊斯兰叛乱分子的官方态度完全陷入宣传、虚饰，这种手段可以追溯到解放战争时如何处理反共势力的方式，报道如出一辙。在国民党国民革命军里有一个庞大的穆斯林队伍。穆斯林军队不断攻击毛泽东的中央政府的军队，并和苏联作战。其针对中央政府的军事叛乱都集中在甘肃，青海，宁夏，新疆等省，并在毛泽东1949年北京掌权后持续了长达9年。

Adding complexity however, the Muslim armed forces had been especially active against the Soviet Union in the north and west – and by 1959 the Sino-Soviet split was sealed. Armed hostilities by Mao’s PLA against the Red Army of the USSR broke out in several border regions, with PLA forces aided by former Muslim insurgents in some theatres. Outside China, and especially for Arab opinion, Mao was confirmed as a revolutionary nationalist similar to non-aligned Arab leaders of the period, like Colonel Husni al-Zaim of Syria and Colonel Nasser of Egypt.

更加复杂的是，在北方和西部，穆斯林军队反对苏联的行动一直特别活跃- 在1959年中苏分裂前这些是不为人知的。在几个边境地区爆发出毛泽东的军队对苏联红军的武装敌对行动，而在一些战斗中前穆斯林叛乱分子却协助解放军部队。在中国境外，阿拉伯人相信，毛泽东和同时期的阿拉伯不结盟国家领导人，如叙利亚的胡斯尼阿尔扎伊姆上校，埃及的纳赛尔上校差不多，都是革命性的民族主义领导者。

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CHINA’S THREAT TO WESTERN STRATEGY IN THE MENA

中国对西方的中东北非战略的威胁，

Especially today, some Western observers feign “surprise” at China’s total hostility towards UN Security Council approval for “surgical war” strikes against Syria. The reasons for this overlap with Russia’s adamant refusal to go along with US, Saudi Arabian, Turkish and French demands for a UNSC rubber stamp to trigger “regime change” in Syria but are not the same. For China the concept of “regime change” with no clear idea – officially – of what comes next is anathema.

尤其是今天，在中国对联合国安理会批准对叙利亚发动“外科手术式战争”打击表现出完全的敌意时，一些西方观察家假装“吃惊”。美国、沙特阿拉伯，土耳其和法国要求取得联合国安理会橡皮图章（通过决议），以引发叙利亚“政权更迭”，俄罗斯则坚决拒绝附和赞同。这一点上，中俄反对的原因相互重叠，但是也不尽相同。在中国眼中，“政权更迭”却不知道下一任具体是谁是一种非常不好的凶兆。

As we know, when or if al Assad falls, only chaos can ensue as the country breaks apart, but this nightmare scenario for China is brushed aside by Western politicians as a subject for “later decision”.

我们知道，只要阿萨德下台，混乱接踵而至，国家随之解体，但这个中国担忧的噩梦景象的被西方政客们置之不理，只是作为一个主题留待“以后决定”。

China’s successful efforts to keep the global jihad from spreading into its territory is surely and certainly taken as a real challenge by Saudi-backed insurgents in western China. Various reports indicate the al-Qaeda organization trains about 1 000 mostly Xinjiang-origin Uighurs and other Chinese Muslims every year. Located in camps in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Kirgizstan and elsewhere, this terror training has continued since at least the mid-1990s, for a total of more than 15 years.

中国阻止全球圣战蔓延到其领土内的成功努力，肯定在中国西部沙特支持的反叛势力视为一个真正的挑战。各种报告表明基地组织每年培训约1000多名新疆出生的维吾尔族和其他中国穆斯林。这些恐怖训练营驻扎在阿富汗，巴基斯坦，吉尔吉斯斯坦和其他地方，至少自90年代中期开始持续至今，超过了15年。

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The focus on Xinjiang, formerly called Turkestan is no accident. The region’s Russian influence is still strong, reinforced by Muslim migration from Russia in the 19th century, accelerated by the Russian Civil War and 1917 revolution. During China’s warlord era preceding Mao’s rule, the USSR armed and supported the Muslim separatist East Turkestan Republic which only accepted Mao’s rule when the PRC under the Chinese communists was fully established in 1949. The longstanding East Turkestan jihadi movement (ETIM) is highly active today after being relaunched in the early 2000′s, especially since the Iraq war of 2003. It however mainly acts in “external theatres” such as Pakistan’s Baluchistan province. The Baluchi of Pakistan have long-term rebellious relations with the central government in Islamabad, and are allied with Kurd nationalists in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Turkey.

关注以前被称为突厥斯坦的新疆绝非偶然。俄罗斯在该地区的影响力依然强劲，并且因穆斯林移民而增强。在19世纪穆斯林从俄罗斯移民，移民过程随俄国内战和1917年革命加速。在毛泽东统治之前的中国军阀时代，苏联武装并支持穆斯林分裂主义者，东突厥斯坦共和国。该“共和国”在中国共产党人于1949年完全建立中华人民共和国之后只接受毛泽东的统治。历史漫长的东土耳其斯坦的圣战运动（ETIM）在2000年初重新掀起，特别是2003年开始的伊拉克战争以后，今天非常活跃。然而，它主要活跃在“外部战场”，如巴基斯坦的俾路支省。巴基斯坦的俾路支人与伊斯兰堡中央政府具有长期叛逆关系，并与在伊拉克，叙利亚，黎巴嫩和土耳其的库尔德民族主义者结盟。

The US Council on Foreign Relations in a 29 May 2012 briefing on Xinjiang noted that since the Chinese Qing dynasty collapse of 1912, the region has experienced various types of semi-autonomy and on several occasions declared full independence from China. The Council for example notes that in 1944, factions within Xinjiang declared independence with full support from the USSR, but then cites US State Dept. documents claiming that Uighur-related terrorism has “declined considerably” since the end of the 1990s and China “overreacts to and exaggerates” Islamic insurgency in Xinjiang.

美国外交关系委员会在2012年5月29日关于新疆的简报中指出，自1912年中国清朝崩溃，该地区经历了各种类型的半自治并在多个场合宣布完全从中国独立。例如，该委员会指出，在1944年，疆内各派系宣布独立，并取得了苏联的全力支持，但随后援引美国国务院部文件宣称维吾尔有关的恐怖主义自20世纪90年代末，中国“过度反应夸大事实”后，新疆的伊斯兰叛乱活动便已“大幅度下降”。

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Notably, the US has declassified the ETIM Islamic movement – despite its terror attacks – as a terrorist organization. The ETIM was defined as such during the Bush administration years, but is no longer listed as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) in the State Dept. FTO list as from January 2012.

值得注意的是，尽管东突正在频繁发动恐怖袭击，美国还是解密了东突伊斯兰运动，把它列入恐怖组织名单。 在布什政府执政期间“东突”也是这样被定义为恐怖组织的，但从2012年一月起在国务院的外国恐怖组织FTO列表中不再把“东突”列为外国恐怖组织（FTO）。

China has fully recognized the Islamic insurgency threat, with its potential for drawing in hostile foreign powers seeking to destroy national unity and break the national government. Its concern, shared by Indian strategists and policy makers is to “stop the rot” in the MENA.

中国已经充分认识到伊斯兰叛乱的威胁，因为其势必引来国外敌对势力蓄意破坏民族团结和颠覆国家政府。中国关切的是在中东北非“阻止腐烂蔓延”，印度战略家和决策者也怀有同样的担心。

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THE CHINESE STRATEGY

中国的策略

Unofficially, China regards the US and Saudi strategy in the MENA and Central Asia as “devil’s work” sowing the seeds of long-term insurgency, the collapse of the nation state and with it the economy. The US link with and support to Israel is in no way ignored, notably Israel’s Yinon plan for weakening central governments and dissolving the nation state right across the MENA.

私下里，中国把美国和沙特在中东北非和中亚的战略看作为是“魔鬼的作品”，它播下的是长期叛乱、民族国家及其经济崩溃的种子。 美国与以色列的紧密联系及对其支持决不能小视，特别值得一提的是，以色列的依农计划的目标在于在中东北非广大地区削弱国家中央政府并使民族国家解体。

China’s main concern is that Central Asian states will be affected, or infected by radical Islamic jihadi fighters and insurgents drifting in from the West, from the Middle East and North Africa. These will back the existing Islamic insurgent and separatist movement in resource-rich Xinjiang. To keep Central Asian states from fomenting trouble in Xinjiang, China has cultivated close diplomatic ties with its neighbors, notably through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization which has a secretariat concerned with counter-insurgency issues.

中国主要担心的是，中亚国家会受到影响，或者，从西方、中东和北非流入的激进的伊斯兰圣战斗士和叛乱分子会感染到这些国家。 这种动荡将给资源丰富的新疆现有的伊斯兰叛乱和分裂主义运动提供支持。为了阻止中亚国家（动乱）煽动新疆造成麻烦，中国已经与邻国培养密切的外交关系，特别是通过上海合作组织达到这一目的，上合组织设有针对叛乱问题的秘书处。

US analysts however conclude, very hastily, that China “instinctively supports the status quo” and therefore does not have an active international strategy to combat jihadi violence and anarchy outside China. US analysts say, without any logic, that China will respond to and obediently follow initiatives from Washington and other Western powers – as it has starkly not done in the UN Security Council when it concerns the Western powers’ long drawn out attempt to repeat, for Syria, their success in 2011 for getting UNSC approval to the NATO war in Libya!

然而，美国分析家匆匆得出结论，认为中国“本能地支持现状”，因而不具备一个在中国境外打击圣战暴力和无政府状态的积极的国际性战略。美国分析家说，中国将顺从地遵循华盛顿和其他西方国家的倡议并做出反应，这是毫无根据的 - 因为中国在联合国安理会已经明白无误地拒绝这样做。西方列强在安理会处心积虑，他们以为会像在2011年获得联合国安理会的批准、发动北约对利比亚的战争那样，在叙利亚问题上再演一曲，结果没有成功！

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China was enraged, and regarded it as betrayal when its support for limited action by NATO in Libya – a rare instance of China compromising on nonintervention – turned into an all-out “turkey shoot” to destroy the Gaddafi clan. Libya was handed over to jihadi militants, who subsequently declared war against central government, an accelerating process resulting in Libya, today, having no central government with any real authority. That experience certainly hardened Beijing’s responses on Syria.

中国本来只支持北约在利比亚的有限行动，这次中国在不干预政策上的妥协是一个罕见的事例。当这种有限行动变成了一场摧毁卡扎菲集团的全面战争时，中国被激怒了，并把它看作是背叛。利比亚被交到给圣战武装分子手上，他们随后对中央政府宣战，并直接加速形成了利比亚今天这样的一个中央政府没有实际权威的状态。那次经历无疑强化了北京对叙利亚局势的反应。

Post-Mao China has restored the concept of Chinese cultural continuity, with a blend of Confucian, Taoist and Buddhist strands which had been been weakened but not completely destroyed in the years of ideologically-driven Communism. For the Communists of Mao’s era “history was bunk”, not even a mixed bag but an unqualified evil that must be smashed. The Chinese attitude to radical Islam as embodied in the ideologies of Wahabism and Salafism is the same – they are treated as a denial of world history and its varied cultures, with immediate and real dangers for China. Its counter-insurgency strategy against Islamic radicals is the logical result.

后毛泽东时代的中国已经恢复了中国文化的连续性的概念，并且融合了儒家，道家和佛教渊源。这些宗教渊源在多年意识形态挂帅的共产党治下遭到削弱，但没有被完全摧毁。对毛泽东时代的共产党人来说； “历史是虚假的”，甚至没有一个好坏参半的，只有不合格的邪恶东西，必须予以打碎。中国对瓦哈比派和沙拉菲主义的意识形态体现出的激进的伊斯兰教的态度是相同的 - 他们都是对世界历史和不同的文化的否认，对中国构成现实的和真正的危险。其打击伊斯兰激进分子的反叛乱战略是合乎逻辑的结果。

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This strategy ensures closer Tehran-Beijing relations, usually described by Western analysts as a “balancing act” between ties to Washington and growing relations with Iran. China and Iran have developed a broad and deep partnership centered on China’s oil needs, to be sure, but also including significant non-energy economic ties, arms sales, defense cooperation, and Asian and MENA geostrategic balancing as a counterweight to the policies and strategies of the United States and its local allies, Saudi Arabia and Israel. Chinese attention now focuses the Washington-Riyadh axis and its confused and dangerous MENA region geostrategy, resulting in a de facto proliferation of Islamic djihadi insurgents and the attack on the basic concept of the nation state across the region. The Chinese view is that Iran’s version of “Peoples’ Islam” is less violent and anarchic, than the Saudi version.

这种策略确保了德黑兰-北京之间更紧密的关系，西方分析家通常将之形容为平衡北京-华盛顿纽带和北京-伊朗不断增长的关系的“平衡行为”。中国和伊朗已经发展出了以中国的石油需求为中心的广泛而深入的伙伴关系，这是可以肯定的，但也包括意义重大的非能源经济联系，军售，防务合作，以及为抗衡美国及其本地盟国，沙特阿拉伯和以色列，在该地区施行的政策和战略而制定的亚洲和中东北非地缘政治平衡战略。中国现在关注的重点是华盛顿利雅得轴心及其混乱危险的中东北非地区的地缘战略，该战略造成了伊斯兰圣战叛乱分子事实上的扩散和对该地区民族国家基本概念的冲击。中国人的看法是，和沙特阿拉伯版教义相比，伊朗版的“人民伊斯兰”的暴力和无政府主义程度较低。

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OPPOSING THE WASHINGTON-RIYADH AXIS

反对华盛顿 - 利雅得轴心

Both Chinese and Indian strategists’ perceptions of the US-Saudi strategy in the MENA, and other Muslim-majority regions and countries is that it is dangerous and irresponsible. Why the Western democracies led by the US would support or even tolerate the Saudi geostrategy and ignore Israel’s Yinon Plan – as presently shown in Syria – is treated by them as almost incomprehensible.

中国和印度战略家认为，美国-沙特在中东北非、以及其他穆斯林占多数的地区和国家的战略是危险和不负责任的。为什么以美国为首的西方民主国家会支持，甚至容忍沙特地缘战略而忽视以色列的依农计划，正如目前在叙利亚作所显示的那样，对他们来说几乎是不可理解的。

China is Tehran’s largest trading partner and customer for oil exports, taking about 20% of Iran’s total oil exports, but China’s co-operation is seen as critical to the Western, Israeli and Arab Gulf State plan to force Iran to stop uranium enrichment and disable the capacity of its nuclear program to produce nuclear weapons. Repeated high-level attempts to “persuade Beijing” to go along with this plan, such as then-US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s 2012 visit to Beijing, however result each time in Chinese hosts politely but firmly saying no. This is not only motivated by oil supply issues.

中国是伊朗最大的贸易伙伴和石油出口的主顾，中国进口约占伊朗石油总出口的20％，因此，在西方、以色列和阿拉伯海湾国家计划迫使伊朗停止铀浓缩并消除其制造核武器的能力方面，中国的合作被看作是至关重要的。高层反复试图“说服北京”襄助这一计划，例如前美国财长盖特纳2012年的北京访问曾这么做，结果每次却是中国主人礼貌而坚定地说不。其动机不仅仅是由石油供应问题这么简单。

Flash points revealing the Chinese-US divide on Iran crop up in world news, for example the US unilateral decision in January 2012 to impose sanction on Chinese refiner Zhuhai Zenrong for refining Iranian oil and supplying refined products back to Iran. This US action was described by China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman as “totally unreasonable”. He went on to say that “China (has) expressed its strong dissatisfaction and adamant opposition”.

揭示中美两国在伊朗问题上的分歧的燃点新闻突然出现在世界新闻里，例如2012年1月美国单方面决定对中国的珠海振戎炼油厂提炼伊朗石油并将提炼产品销回伊朗实施制裁。美国的这一行动得到了中国外交部发言人形容为“毫无道理”。他接着说，“中国已经表示了强烈不满和坚决反对”。

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At the same time, China’s Xinhua Agency gave prominence to the statement made by Iran’s OPEC delegate Mohamed Ali Khatibi: “If the oil producing nations of the (Arab) Gulf decide to substitute Iran’s oil, then they will be held responsible for what happens”. Chinese analysts explained that China like India was irritated that Iranian oil sanctions opened the way for further de facto dominance of Saudi Arabia in world export supplies of oil, as well as higher prices.

与此同时，中国的新华社强调了伊朗的欧佩克代表穆罕默德·阿里卡提比的发言：“如果是（阿拉伯）海湾石油生产国决定替代伊朗石油，那么他们将要对发生的事情负责”。中国分析家解释说，中国和印度一样制裁伊朗石油出口被激怒了，制裁伊朗为事实上进一步加强沙特阿拉伯在世界石油供应的主导地位，以及高企的石油价格大开方便之门。

Iran is however only the third-largest supplier of oil to China, after Angola and Saudi Arabia, with Russia its fourth-largest supplier, using EIA data. This makes it necessary for China to run sustainable relations with the Wahabite Kingdom, which are made sustainable by actions like China’s Sinopec in 2012 part-funding the $8.5 billion 400 000 barrels-per-day refinery under construction in the Saudi Red Sea port city of Yanbu.

然而根据EIA的数据，伊朗仅是排在安哥拉和沙特之后出口石油到中国的第三大供应商，俄罗斯排第四。因此中国需要与瓦哈比派王国（即沙特）发展持续长久的关系，其手段是，沙特正在红海港口城市盐步建设一座涉及资金85亿美元，日产40万桶的炼油厂，中国石化在2012年为此项目提供部分资金。

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The Saudi news and propaganda outlet Al Arabiya repeatedly criticises China and India for their purchase of Iranian oil and refusal to fully apply US-inspired sanctions. A typical broadside of February 2013 was titled “Why is China still dealing with Iran?”, and notably cited US analysts operating in Saudi-funded or aided policy institutes, such as Washington’s Institute for Near East Policy as saying: “It’s time we wised up to this dangerous game. From Beijing’s perspective, Iran serves as an important strategic partner and point of leverage against the United States”. US analysts favourable to the Saudi strategy in the MENA – described with approval by President Eisenhower in the 1950s as able to establish a Hollywood style Saudi royal “Islamic Pope” for Muslim lands from Spain to Indonesia – say that Iran is also seen by China as a geopolitical partner able to help China countering US-Saudi and Israeli strategic action in the Middle East.

沙特新闻宣传发言人阿尔阿拉比亚多次批评中国和印度从伊朗购买石油并拒绝充分实施美国倡议的制裁。 2013年2月，一个典型猛烈抨击的题目是《为什么中国仍然和伊朗交往？》。沙特资助或支持一些政策研究机构，如华盛顿近东政策研究所。上文并特别提到，一位政策研究机构里的美国分析师说道：“我们早该识破认清这种危险策略了。从北京的角度来看，伊朗是一个重要的战略合作伙伴，对抗美国的杠杆支点“。沙特的在中东北非战略在1950年代被艾森豪威尔总统大加赞赏，称他们能在从西班牙到印度尼西亚的土地上的穆斯林国家建立一个好莱坞式的沙特皇家“伊斯兰教皇”。 赞成支持这个战略的美国分析家们说，伊朗也被中国看作为地缘政治合作伙伴，能够帮助中国在中东对付美国、沙特以色列的战略行动。

A 2012 study by US think tank RAND put it bluntly: “Isolated Iran locked in conflict with the United States provides China with a unique opportunity to expand its influence in the Middle East and could pull down the US military in the Gulf.” The RAND study noted that in the past two decades, Chinese engineers have built housing, bridges, dams, tunnels, railroads, pipelines, steelworks and power plants throughout Iran. The Tehran metro system completed between 2000 and 2006 was a major Chinese engineering project.

美国的智囊机构兰德公司在2012年的一项研究中直言不讳地说：“孤立的伊朗被困在与美国的冲突中为中国提供了一个独特的机会，以扩大其在中东地区的影响力，并可能在海湾将美国军队拉下水”兰德这项研究指出，在过去的二十年中，中国的工程师们在整个伊朗建造房屋，桥梁，水坝，隧道，铁路，管道，钢铁厂和发电厂。 于2000至2006年间完成的德黑兰地铁系统就是一个重要的中国工程项目。

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THE BIG PICTURE

大棋局

China’s Iran policy and strategy can be called “big picture”. Iranian aid and support to mostly but not exclusively Shia political movements, and insurgents stretches from SE Asia and South Asia, to West and Central Asia, Afghanistan, the Caspian region, and SE Europe to the MENA. It is however focused on the Arabian peninsula and is inevitably opposed to Saudi geostrategy. This is a known flashpoint and is able to literally trigger a third world war. Avoiding this is the big picture – for China.

中国的伊朗政策和战略可称为“大棋局”。伊朗的援助和支持对象大部集中但不限于什叶派政治运动以及叛乱分子，这些叛乱分子分布横跨东南亚、南亚延伸到西亚和中亚、阿富汗、里海地区和东南欧洲到中东北非的广大地区，但是更集中在阿拉伯半岛，并不可避免地反对沙特地缘战略。这个爆发点已为人所知，并能够如其字面意思那样引发第三次世界大战。避免其爆发就是中国的大棋局。

Li Weijian, the director of the Research Center of Asian and African Studies at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies puts it so: “China’s stance on the Iranian nuclear issue is not subject to Beijing’s demand for Iranian oil imports, but based on judgment of the whole picture.” China is guided in foreign relations by two basic principles, both of them reflecting domestic priorities. First, China wants a stable international environment so it can pursue domestic economic development without external shocks. Second, China is very sensitive to international policies that ‘interfere in or hamper sovereign decisions”, ultimately tracing to its experience in the 19th and 20th centuries at the hands of Western powers, and the USSR, before and after the emergence of the PRC. It adamantly opposes foreign interference in Taiwan, Tibet, and Xinjiang.

李维健是位于上海国际问题研究所的亚洲和非洲研究中心主任，他说：“中国在伊朗核问题上的立场是不受北京从伊朗进口石油的需求制约，而是基于对全局的判断。“中国的外交关系由两个基本原则指导，二者均反映国内优先。首先，中国需要一个稳定的国际环境，从而在没有外部冲击下致力于国内经济发展。第二，中国对“干涉或妨碍主权决定” 的国际政策非常敏感。对干涉主权的感受可以最终追溯到在19世纪和20世纪，新中国成立之前，中国在西方列强以及成立之后在苏联手中的经历。所以中国在台湾，西藏，新疆问题上坚决反对外国干涉。

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This includes radical Islamist or jihadi interference, backed by any foreign power. While China has on occasions suspected Tehran of stirring Islamic insurgency inside its borders it sees the US-Saudi geostrategy of employing jihadists to do their dirty work as a critical danger, and as wanton interference. Indian attitudes although not yet so firm, are evolving in the same general direction. Both are nuclear weapons powers with massive land armies and more than able to defend themselves.

干涉主权也包括激进的伊斯兰主义者或任何外国势力的支持的圣战的插手。中国怀疑德黑兰多次涉嫌煽动在中国境内的伊斯兰叛乱活动，但中国仍将美国和沙特利用圣战者做脏活的地缘战略看作为一个严重的危险和粗暴干涉中国主权。印度的态度虽然还没有如此坚定，但也在大致相同的方向上不断演变。两者都是拥核大国，陆军规模庞大，自保能力绰绰有余。

Claims by Western, mostly US analysts that China views Iran as exhibiting “unpredictable behaviour” in response to US-led sanctions and that Iran is “challenging China’s relations with its regional partners” can be dismissed. In particular and concerning oil, China is well aware that Iran will need many years of oil-sector development to return to anything like pre-Islamic revolution output of more than 5 million barrels a day. Unless oil sanctions are lifted, Iran’s oil output will go on declining, further increasing the power of the Gulf States led by Saudi Arabia, and Shia-governed but insurgency threatened Iraq to dictate export prices.

西方、主要是美国分析师主张，中国认为伊朗在应对美国主导的制裁时表现出“不可预知的行为”，同时伊朗“挑战中国与各地区合作伙伴关系”，这种主张可以不予考虑。特别是涉及到石油，中国也很清楚，伊朗将需要许多年发展石油部门以达到伊斯兰革命前每天500多万桶的石油产量。除非解除石油制裁，伊朗的石油产量将持续下降，进一步增加了以沙特阿拉伯为首的和受什叶派支配、为叛乱威胁所累的伊拉克等海湾国家操纵石油出口价格的权力。

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China dismisses the claim that its policies have hampered US and other Western political effort to dissuade Iran from developing nuclear weapons capability.

中国驳回了对其政策的断言，即中国政策妨碍了美国和其他西方国家劝阻伊朗发展核武器能力的政治努力。

China’s distaste for toppling almost any central government, even those run by dictatorial strongmen springs from a deep sense of history – marked by insecurity about the uncertain political legitimacy of governments arising from civil war and revolution – like the PRC. At its extreme, this Chinese nightmare extends to fears that if the US-Saudi geostrategy can topple governments in the Middle East almost overnight, what will stop them from working to bring down China’s government one day? Unlike almost all MENA countries minus the oil exporters, China has scored impressive victories in the fight against poverty. Its economy although slowing creates abundant jobs and opportunity.

中国对任何推翻中央政府的行为深恶痛绝，即使是那些独裁强人领导的政府也不例外。这种讨厌根植于深深的历史感 – 显然，像中国那样的从内战和革命中产生的政府，其政治合法性具有不确定性因而产生不安全感。在极端情况下，中国噩梦变成担心：如果美国和沙特的地缘战略能在中东地区几乎在一夜之间推翻政府，那么会有什么力量阻止它们有一天搞垮中国的政府？与几乎所有的中东北非国家（除去石油出口国家）不同，中国在消除贫困的斗争方面取得了的胜利，令人印象深刻。它的经济虽然放缓但仍创造了大量的的就业岗位和机遇。

For China, this is the only way to progress.

对于中国来说，这是进步的唯一途径。

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HARDENING POLICIES AND POSITIONS

不断强化的政策和立场

The emerging Chinese anti-Islamist strategy also underlines a menacing reality for the US and other Western powers. China rejects the belief there is still only one superpower in today’s world—the USA. The USA’s weakened economy and uncontrollable national debt, its confused and cowardly drone war, its slavish support to Israeli and Saudi whims do not impress China – or India.

中国正在显露的反伊斯兰战略还彰显了一个对美国和其他西方国家险恶的现实。中国拒绝确信，在当今世界，只有一个超级大国，即美国。同时，美国的疲软的经济和不可控的国债，其迷茫和懦弱无人机战争，其对以色列和沙特狂想予以盲目无条件的支持等等，无论是中国 - 还是印度都不为其所动。

To be sure China’s classic-conventional weapons development programs lag far behind the US. The Chinese military strategy for pushing back US dominance focuses global reach ballistic missiles, tactical nuclear weapons, drones, submarines, and military space and cyberwarfare capabilities.

可以肯定的是中国的经典常规武器发展计划远远落后于美国。要将美国从全球支配地位反推回去，中国的军事战略集中于全球抵达的弹道导弹，战术核武，无人机，潜艇，军用空间和网络战能力。

With the PLA it possesses the biggest land army in the world. No US warmonger, at least saner versions would “take on China”.

中国拥有解放军这样世界上最大规模的陆军。任何美国战争贩子，至少具有理智的战争贩子都不会“和中国较量”

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China has invested heavily in Iraq, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, as well as Iran. It does not want to see its investment effort destroyed by deliberately promoted Islamic anarchy. Also, its Middle Eastern presence will continue due to the fact that while US dependence on oil imports is declining, China overtook the US as the world’s largest oil importer on a daily basis, this year, several years ahead of analysts’ consensus forecasts.

中国已经在伊拉克，沙特阿拉伯和其他海湾国家，以及伊朗投入巨资，因此不希望看到其投资的努力毁于刻意推动伊斯兰无政府状态。此外，中国将继续保持在中东的存在是基于这样的事实，美国对石油进口的依赖正在下降的同时，按照每日进口量，中国今年已经超越美国成为世界上最大的石油进口国，这个时间比分析师们一致预测的时间提前好几年。

The likely result is that China is now poised and almost certain to strengthen relations with Iran. The intensifying Syrian crisis as well as the dangerously out of control US-Saudi-Israeli djihadi strategy, of fomenting sectarian conflict and destroying the nation state in the MENA, will likely prompt China to soon take major initiatives.

结果可能是，中国正准备并且几乎肯定要加强与伊朗的关系。日益加剧的叙利亚危机，以及在危险失控的美国沙特以色列的圣战战略，即挑起教派冲突，在中东北非地区摧毁民族国家的战略，可能会促使中国尽快采取重大举措。

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翻译者是龙腾网的endif，本人系转载，谢谢基地在中国，伊斯兰暴乱在新疆，中国以及美以阿的中东计划

Al Qaeda in China, Islamic Insurgency in Uighur-Xinjiang, China and the US-Saudi-Israeli Plan for th

作者:翻译加工厂 发布日期:2014-02-10 浏览:3029

译文简介:
以1982年以色列入侵黎巴嫩和占领贝鲁特期间担任以色列外交部长依农的名字命名的依农计划，即在中东和北非地区实行的分而治之的地缘战略计划将会延续下去。那次入侵和占领造成了大约25000人死亡。
译文来源:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/chi ... middle-east/5348325
正文翻译:

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By Andrew McKillop



THE YINON PLAN LIVES ON

依农计划将长期延续

Named after Israel’s minister of foreign affairs at the time of the 1982 invasion of Lebanon and occupation of Beirut, with about 25 000 dead, this divide-and-rule geostrategy plan for the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) lives on.

以1982年以色列入侵黎巴嫩和占领贝鲁特期间担任以色列外交部长依农的名字命名的依农计划，即在中东和北非地区实行的分而治之的地缘战略计划将会延续下去。那次入侵和占领造成了大约25000人死亡。

Already victims of this strategy since 2011 – operated by Israel, the US and Saudi Arabia – we have the divided and weakened states of Iraq, Libya, Yemen and Syria. Egypt and even Tunisia can also possibly be added to the list. Others can be identified as likely short-term target victim countries.

从2011年以来，这个由以色列，美国和沙特阿拉伯操盘的战略已经造成的受害国包括伊拉克，利比亚，也门和叙利亚，这些国家被分裂和削弱，甚至埃及和突尼斯还可能位列其中。还有其他国家也可能被认定为短期目标受害国。

In February 1982 the foreign minister Oded Yinon wrote and published ‘A Strategy for Israel in the Nineteen Eighties‘, which outlined strategies for Israel to become the major regional power in the Middle East. High up the list of his recommendations was to decapitate and dissolve surrounding Arab states into sub-nations, warring between themselves. Called the peace-in-the-feud or simply divide and rule, this was part of Yinon’s strategy for achieving the long-term Zionist goal of extending the borders of Israel, not saying where but potentially a vast region. His strategy was warmly and publicly supported by leading US policy makers with close ties to Israel, like Richard Perle, by the 1990s.

1982年2月的外长乌迪德依农撰写并发表了《以色列在一九八零年代的策略》一文，其中概述了以色列成为中东地区主要区域力量的战略。 在他的建议里列为首位的便是让这些国家群龙无首，让其周边的阿拉伯国家解体成为准国家，它们之间相互攻杀。所谓的别国争斗中的和平，或者简言之，分而治之策略，是依农战略的一部分。依农战略包括实现犹太复国主义者长期目标：扩大以色列的边界，没有指明边界扩展到哪里，但潜在包括广大的地区。及至1990年代，他的策略受到美国主要政策制定者的热烈和公开的支持。这些政策制定者与以色列有密切联系，里面有理查德·珀尔这样的人。

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This regional balkanization plan is centred on the exploitation of ethnic, religious, tribal and national divisions within the Arab world. Yinon noted the regional landscape of the MENA was “carved up” mainly by the US, Britain and France after the defeat and collapse of the Ottoman empire in 1917. The hastily traced and arbitrary borders are not faithful to ethnic, religious, and tribal differences between the different peoples in the region – a problem exactly reproduced in Africa, when decolonization started in the 1950s and 1960s. Yinon went on to argue this makes the Arab world a house of cards ready to be pushed over and broken apart into tiny warring states or “chefferies” based on sectarian, ethnic, national, tribal or other divisions.

这一将本地区巴尔干化计划的中心点在于利用阿拉伯世界中的种族，宗教，部落和民族分裂。 依农指出，中东和北非地区的区域版图“景观”是在1917年奥斯曼帝国的失败和崩溃后，主要由美国，英国和法国“人工修剪”而成。匆匆划定、任意切割的边界并没有遵循该地区的不同民族之间的种族，宗教和部族差异 – 这个问题在非洲开始于20世纪五六十年代的非殖民化后一模一样地再现了。 依农接着说这些（无视差异的版图）让阿拉伯世界成为沙滩之塔，一推即垮，基于宗派，种族，民族，部落或其他分歧分裂成一堆小邦国或者“失败国家”征战不已。

Central governments would be decapitated and disappear. Power would be held by the warlord chiefs in the new sub-nations or ‘mini-states’. To be sure, this would certainly remove any real opposition to Israel’s coming regional dominance. Yinon said little or nothing about economic “collateral damage”.

那些中央政府将被削平和消失。权力将由在新成立的准国家或“袖珍国家”军阀首领掌控。显然，以色列未来区域支配地位的任何真正的反对力量将被消除。 但是依农对经济上的“附带损害”不置一词。

To be sure, US and Saudi strategy in the MENA region is claimed to be entirely different, or in the Saudi case similar concerning the means – decapitating central governments – but different concerning the Saudi goal of creating a huge new Caliphate similar to the Ottoman empire. Under the Ottomans nations did not exist, nor their national frontiers, and local governments were weak or very weak.

可以肯定的是，美国和沙特的中东和北非地区战略据称是完全不同的，或者在沙特看来，只有手段类似 – 削平其他中央政府 - 但沙特的目的不同，沙特想要建立一个类似奥斯曼帝国的庞大的新的哈里发。在奥斯曼帝国统治下不存在国家，也不存在国界，地方政府弱而又弱。

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Al QAEDA: The new US-NATO conscript army in the MENA region, and beyond.

基地组织：美国北约在中东北非地区的新征兵计划及其深远影响



ISLAMIC INSURGENCY IS WELL KNOWN IN CHINA

伊斯兰的反叛在中国广为人知

China knows plenty about Islamic insurgency and its potential to destroy the nation state. Even in the 1980s and 1990s, some 25 years ago, China had an “Islamic insurgency” threat concentrated in its eastern resource-rich and low population Xinjiang region. Before that, since the early days of the Peoples’ Republic in the 1950s, China has addressed Islamic insurgency with mostly failed policies and strategies but more recently a double strategy of domestic or local repression, but aid and support to Islamic powers thought able to work against djihadi insurgents – outside China – has produced results.

中国深知伊斯兰叛乱及其对民族国家的潜在破坏性。即使是在20世纪80年代和90年代，大约25年前，中国经历过集中在新疆东部资源丰富人口稀少地区的威胁。在此之前，在20世纪50年代人民共和国建立之初，中国试图解决伊斯兰叛乱问题，但是大多数政策和策略都是失败的，但最近采用了双重策略，即在国内或地方采取压制手段，但在国外却援助和支持那些能够抑制“圣战”叛乱分子的伊斯兰国家。这种双重策略已经取得了效果。

The Chinese strategy runs completely against the drift of Western policy and favours Iran.

中国战略：反抗西方，襄助伊朗。

A report in ‘Asia Times’, 27 February 2007, said this: “Despite al-Qaeda’s efforts to support Muslim insurgents in China, Beijing has succeeded in limiting (its) popular support….. The latest evidence came when China raided a terrorist facility in the country’s Xinjiang region, near the borders with Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Kirgizstan. According to reports, 18 terrorists were killed and 17 were captured”.

在2007年2月27日《亚洲时报》的一份报告对此表示：“尽管基地组织试图支持中国的穆斯林叛乱分子，北京已经成功限制其民众的支持.....最新的证据是，中国在新疆地区突袭了恐怖分子的设施，该地区靠近巴基斯坦，阿富汗，塔吉克斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦的边界。据报道，18名恐怖分子被打死，17人被抓获。”

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Chinese reporting, even official white papers on defence against terror are notoriously imprecise or simply fabricated. The official line is there is no remaining Islamic insurgency and – if there are isolated incidents – China’s ability to kill or capture militants without social blowback demonstrates the State’s “hearts and minds” policy in Xinjiang, the hearth area for Chinese Muslims, is working.

中国的报告，甚至官方的防范恐怖白皮书是出名地不准确，或干脆捏造。官方说法是不存在伊斯兰叛乱残余分子 – 即使有一些孤立的事件 - 中国有能力消灭捕获这些武装分子而不招致社会反对充分证明了国家在中国穆斯林的聚居地新疆的“攻心”政策，正在取得成效。

Chinese official attitudes to Islamic insurgency are mired with veils of propaganda stretching back to the liberation war against anti-communist forces. These featured the Kuomintang which had a large Muslim contingent in its Kuomintang National Revolutionary Army. The Muslim contingent operated against Mao Zedong’s central government forces – and fought the USSR. Its military insurgency against the central government was focused on the provinces of Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang and continued for as long as 9 years after Mao took power in Beijing, in 1949.

中国对待伊斯兰叛乱分子的官方态度完全陷入宣传、虚饰，这种手段可以追溯到解放战争时如何处理反共势力的方式，报道如出一辙。在国民党国民革命军里有一个庞大的穆斯林队伍。穆斯林军队不断攻击毛泽东的中央政府的军队，并和苏联作战。其针对中央政府的军事叛乱都集中在甘肃，青海，宁夏，新疆等省，并在毛泽东1949年北京掌权后持续了长达9年。

Adding complexity however, the Muslim armed forces had been especially active against the Soviet Union in the north and west – and by 1959 the Sino-Soviet split was sealed. Armed hostilities by Mao’s PLA against the Red Army of the USSR broke out in several border regions, with PLA forces aided by former Muslim insurgents in some theatres. Outside China, and especially for Arab opinion, Mao was confirmed as a revolutionary nationalist similar to non-aligned Arab leaders of the period, like Colonel Husni al-Zaim of Syria and Colonel Nasser of Egypt.

更加复杂的是，在北方和西部，穆斯林军队反对苏联的行动一直特别活跃- 在1959年中苏分裂前这些是不为人知的。在几个边境地区爆发出毛泽东的军队对苏联红军的武装敌对行动，而在一些战斗中前穆斯林叛乱分子却协助解放军部队。在中国境外，阿拉伯人相信，毛泽东和同时期的阿拉伯不结盟国家领导人，如叙利亚的胡斯尼阿尔扎伊姆上校，埃及的纳赛尔上校差不多，都是革命性的民族主义领导者。

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CHINA’S THREAT TO WESTERN STRATEGY IN THE MENA

中国对西方的中东北非战略的威胁，

Especially today, some Western observers feign “surprise” at China’s total hostility towards UN Security Council approval for “surgical war” strikes against Syria. The reasons for this overlap with Russia’s adamant refusal to go along with US, Saudi Arabian, Turkish and French demands for a UNSC rubber stamp to trigger “regime change” in Syria but are not the same. For China the concept of “regime change” with no clear idea – officially – of what comes next is anathema.

尤其是今天，在中国对联合国安理会批准对叙利亚发动“外科手术式战争”打击表现出完全的敌意时，一些西方观察家假装“吃惊”。美国、沙特阿拉伯，土耳其和法国要求取得联合国安理会橡皮图章（通过决议），以引发叙利亚“政权更迭”，俄罗斯则坚决拒绝附和赞同。这一点上，中俄反对的原因相互重叠，但是也不尽相同。在中国眼中，“政权更迭”却不知道下一任具体是谁是一种非常不好的凶兆。

As we know, when or if al Assad falls, only chaos can ensue as the country breaks apart, but this nightmare scenario for China is brushed aside by Western politicians as a subject for “later decision”.

我们知道，只要阿萨德下台，混乱接踵而至，国家随之解体，但这个中国担忧的噩梦景象的被西方政客们置之不理，只是作为一个主题留待“以后决定”。

China’s successful efforts to keep the global jihad from spreading into its territory is surely and certainly taken as a real challenge by Saudi-backed insurgents in western China. Various reports indicate the al-Qaeda organization trains about 1 000 mostly Xinjiang-origin Uighurs and other Chinese Muslims every year. Located in camps in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Kirgizstan and elsewhere, this terror training has continued since at least the mid-1990s, for a total of more than 15 years.

中国阻止全球圣战蔓延到其领土内的成功努力，肯定在中国西部沙特支持的反叛势力视为一个真正的挑战。各种报告表明基地组织每年培训约1000多名新疆出生的维吾尔族和其他中国穆斯林。这些恐怖训练营驻扎在阿富汗，巴基斯坦，吉尔吉斯斯坦和其他地方，至少自90年代中期开始持续至今，超过了15年。

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The focus on Xinjiang, formerly called Turkestan is no accident. The region’s Russian influence is still strong, reinforced by Muslim migration from Russia in the 19th century, accelerated by the Russian Civil War and 1917 revolution. During China’s warlord era preceding Mao’s rule, the USSR armed and supported the Muslim separatist East Turkestan Republic which only accepted Mao’s rule when the PRC under the Chinese communists was fully established in 1949. The longstanding East Turkestan jihadi movement (ETIM) is highly active today after being relaunched in the early 2000′s, especially since the Iraq war of 2003. It however mainly acts in “external theatres” such as Pakistan’s Baluchistan province. The Baluchi of Pakistan have long-term rebellious relations with the central government in Islamabad, and are allied with Kurd nationalists in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Turkey.

关注以前被称为突厥斯坦的新疆绝非偶然。俄罗斯在该地区的影响力依然强劲，并且因穆斯林移民而增强。在19世纪穆斯林从俄罗斯移民，移民过程随俄国内战和1917年革命加速。在毛泽东统治之前的中国军阀时代，苏联武装并支持穆斯林分裂主义者，东突厥斯坦共和国。该“共和国”在中国共产党人于1949年完全建立中华人民共和国之后只接受毛泽东的统治。历史漫长的东土耳其斯坦的圣战运动（ETIM）在2000年初重新掀起，特别是2003年开始的伊拉克战争以后，今天非常活跃。然而，它主要活跃在“外部战场”，如巴基斯坦的俾路支省。巴基斯坦的俾路支人与伊斯兰堡中央政府具有长期叛逆关系，并与在伊拉克，叙利亚，黎巴嫩和土耳其的库尔德民族主义者结盟。

The US Council on Foreign Relations in a 29 May 2012 briefing on Xinjiang noted that since the Chinese Qing dynasty collapse of 1912, the region has experienced various types of semi-autonomy and on several occasions declared full independence from China. The Council for example notes that in 1944, factions within Xinjiang declared independence with full support from the USSR, but then cites US State Dept. documents claiming that Uighur-related terrorism has “declined considerably” since the end of the 1990s and China “overreacts to and exaggerates” Islamic insurgency in Xinjiang.

美国外交关系委员会在2012年5月29日关于新疆的简报中指出，自1912年中国清朝崩溃，该地区经历了各种类型的半自治并在多个场合宣布完全从中国独立。例如，该委员会指出，在1944年，疆内各派系宣布独立，并取得了苏联的全力支持，但随后援引美国国务院部文件宣称维吾尔有关的恐怖主义自20世纪90年代末，中国“过度反应夸大事实”后，新疆的伊斯兰叛乱活动便已“大幅度下降”。

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Notably, the US has declassified the ETIM Islamic movement – despite its terror attacks – as a terrorist organization. The ETIM was defined as such during the Bush administration years, but is no longer listed as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) in the State Dept. FTO list as from January 2012.

值得注意的是，尽管东突正在频繁发动恐怖袭击，美国还是解密了东突伊斯兰运动，把它列入恐怖组织名单。 在布什政府执政期间“东突”也是这样被定义为恐怖组织的，但从2012年一月起在国务院的外国恐怖组织FTO列表中不再把“东突”列为外国恐怖组织（FTO）。

China has fully recognized the Islamic insurgency threat, with its potential for drawing in hostile foreign powers seeking to destroy national unity and break the national government. Its concern, shared by Indian strategists and policy makers is to “stop the rot” in the MENA.

中国已经充分认识到伊斯兰叛乱的威胁，因为其势必引来国外敌对势力蓄意破坏民族团结和颠覆国家政府。中国关切的是在中东北非“阻止腐烂蔓延”，印度战略家和决策者也怀有同样的担心。

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THE CHINESE STRATEGY

中国的策略

Unofficially, China regards the US and Saudi strategy in the MENA and Central Asia as “devil’s work” sowing the seeds of long-term insurgency, the collapse of the nation state and with it the economy. The US link with and support to Israel is in no way ignored, notably Israel’s Yinon plan for weakening central governments and dissolving the nation state right across the MENA.

私下里，中国把美国和沙特在中东北非和中亚的战略看作为是“魔鬼的作品”，它播下的是长期叛乱、民族国家及其经济崩溃的种子。 美国与以色列的紧密联系及对其支持决不能小视，特别值得一提的是，以色列的依农计划的目标在于在中东北非广大地区削弱国家中央政府并使民族国家解体。

China’s main concern is that Central Asian states will be affected, or infected by radical Islamic jihadi fighters and insurgents drifting in from the West, from the Middle East and North Africa. These will back the existing Islamic insurgent and separatist movement in resource-rich Xinjiang. To keep Central Asian states from fomenting trouble in Xinjiang, China has cultivated close diplomatic ties with its neighbors, notably through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization which has a secretariat concerned with counter-insurgency issues.

中国主要担心的是，中亚国家会受到影响，或者，从西方、中东和北非流入的激进的伊斯兰圣战斗士和叛乱分子会感染到这些国家。 这种动荡将给资源丰富的新疆现有的伊斯兰叛乱和分裂主义运动提供支持。为了阻止中亚国家（动乱）煽动新疆造成麻烦，中国已经与邻国培养密切的外交关系，特别是通过上海合作组织达到这一目的，上合组织设有针对叛乱问题的秘书处。

US analysts however conclude, very hastily, that China “instinctively supports the status quo” and therefore does not have an active international strategy to combat jihadi violence and anarchy outside China. US analysts say, without any logic, that China will respond to and obediently follow initiatives from Washington and other Western powers – as it has starkly not done in the UN Security Council when it concerns the Western powers’ long drawn out attempt to repeat, for Syria, their success in 2011 for getting UNSC approval to the NATO war in Libya!

然而，美国分析家匆匆得出结论，认为中国“本能地支持现状”，因而不具备一个在中国境外打击圣战暴力和无政府状态的积极的国际性战略。美国分析家说，中国将顺从地遵循华盛顿和其他西方国家的倡议并做出反应，这是毫无根据的 - 因为中国在联合国安理会已经明白无误地拒绝这样做。西方列强在安理会处心积虑，他们以为会像在2011年获得联合国安理会的批准、发动北约对利比亚的战争那样，在叙利亚问题上再演一曲，结果没有成功！

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China was enraged, and regarded it as betrayal when its support for limited action by NATO in Libya – a rare instance of China compromising on nonintervention – turned into an all-out “turkey shoot” to destroy the Gaddafi clan. Libya was handed over to jihadi militants, who subsequently declared war against central government, an accelerating process resulting in Libya, today, having no central government with any real authority. That experience certainly hardened Beijing’s responses on Syria.

中国本来只支持北约在利比亚的有限行动，这次中国在不干预政策上的妥协是一个罕见的事例。当这种有限行动变成了一场摧毁卡扎菲集团的全面战争时，中国被激怒了，并把它看作是背叛。利比亚被交到给圣战武装分子手上，他们随后对中央政府宣战，并直接加速形成了利比亚今天这样的一个中央政府没有实际权威的状态。那次经历无疑强化了北京对叙利亚局势的反应。

Post-Mao China has restored the concept of Chinese cultural continuity, with a blend of Confucian, Taoist and Buddhist strands which had been been weakened but not completely destroyed in the years of ideologically-driven Communism. For the Communists of Mao’s era “history was bunk”, not even a mixed bag but an unqualified evil that must be smashed. The Chinese attitude to radical Islam as embodied in the ideologies of Wahabism and Salafism is the same – they are treated as a denial of world history and its varied cultures, with immediate and real dangers for China. Its counter-insurgency strategy against Islamic radicals is the logical result.

后毛泽东时代的中国已经恢复了中国文化的连续性的概念，并且融合了儒家，道家和佛教渊源。这些宗教渊源在多年意识形态挂帅的共产党治下遭到削弱，但没有被完全摧毁。对毛泽东时代的共产党人来说； “历史是虚假的”，甚至没有一个好坏参半的，只有不合格的邪恶东西，必须予以打碎。中国对瓦哈比派和沙拉菲主义的意识形态体现出的激进的伊斯兰教的态度是相同的 - 他们都是对世界历史和不同的文化的否认，对中国构成现实的和真正的危险。其打击伊斯兰激进分子的反叛乱战略是合乎逻辑的结果。

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This strategy ensures closer Tehran-Beijing relations, usually described by Western analysts as a “balancing act” between ties to Washington and growing relations with Iran. China and Iran have developed a broad and deep partnership centered on China’s oil needs, to be sure, but also including significant non-energy economic ties, arms sales, defense cooperation, and Asian and MENA geostrategic balancing as a counterweight to the policies and strategies of the United States and its local allies, Saudi Arabia and Israel. Chinese attention now focuses the Washington-Riyadh axis and its confused and dangerous MENA region geostrategy, resulting in a de facto proliferation of Islamic djihadi insurgents and the attack on the basic concept of the nation state across the region. The Chinese view is that Iran’s version of “Peoples’ Islam” is less violent and anarchic, than the Saudi version.

这种策略确保了德黑兰-北京之间更紧密的关系，西方分析家通常将之形容为平衡北京-华盛顿纽带和北京-伊朗不断增长的关系的“平衡行为”。中国和伊朗已经发展出了以中国的石油需求为中心的广泛而深入的伙伴关系，这是可以肯定的，但也包括意义重大的非能源经济联系，军售，防务合作，以及为抗衡美国及其本地盟国，沙特阿拉伯和以色列，在该地区施行的政策和战略而制定的亚洲和中东北非地缘政治平衡战略。中国现在关注的重点是华盛顿利雅得轴心及其混乱危险的中东北非地区的地缘战略，该战略造成了伊斯兰圣战叛乱分子事实上的扩散和对该地区民族国家基本概念的冲击。中国人的看法是，和沙特阿拉伯版教义相比，伊朗版的“人民伊斯兰”的暴力和无政府主义程度较低。

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OPPOSING THE WASHINGTON-RIYADH AXIS

反对华盛顿 - 利雅得轴心

Both Chinese and Indian strategists’ perceptions of the US-Saudi strategy in the MENA, and other Muslim-majority regions and countries is that it is dangerous and irresponsible. Why the Western democracies led by the US would support or even tolerate the Saudi geostrategy and ignore Israel’s Yinon Plan – as presently shown in Syria – is treated by them as almost incomprehensible.

中国和印度战略家认为，美国-沙特在中东北非、以及其他穆斯林占多数的地区和国家的战略是危险和不负责任的。为什么以美国为首的西方民主国家会支持，甚至容忍沙特地缘战略而忽视以色列的依农计划，正如目前在叙利亚作所显示的那样，对他们来说几乎是不可理解的。

China is Tehran’s largest trading partner and customer for oil exports, taking about 20% of Iran’s total oil exports, but China’s co-operation is seen as critical to the Western, Israeli and Arab Gulf State plan to force Iran to stop uranium enrichment and disable the capacity of its nuclear program to produce nuclear weapons. Repeated high-level attempts to “persuade Beijing” to go along with this plan, such as then-US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s 2012 visit to Beijing, however result each time in Chinese hosts politely but firmly saying no. This is not only motivated by oil supply issues.

中国是伊朗最大的贸易伙伴和石油出口的主顾，中国进口约占伊朗石油总出口的20％，因此，在西方、以色列和阿拉伯海湾国家计划迫使伊朗停止铀浓缩并消除其制造核武器的能力方面，中国的合作被看作是至关重要的。高层反复试图“说服北京”襄助这一计划，例如前美国财长盖特纳2012年的北京访问曾这么做，结果每次却是中国主人礼貌而坚定地说不。其动机不仅仅是由石油供应问题这么简单。

Flash points revealing the Chinese-US divide on Iran crop up in world news, for example the US unilateral decision in January 2012 to impose sanction on Chinese refiner Zhuhai Zenrong for refining Iranian oil and supplying refined products back to Iran. This US action was described by China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman as “totally unreasonable”. He went on to say that “China (has) expressed its strong dissatisfaction and adamant opposition”.

揭示中美两国在伊朗问题上的分歧的燃点新闻突然出现在世界新闻里，例如2012年1月美国单方面决定对中国的珠海振戎炼油厂提炼伊朗石油并将提炼产品销回伊朗实施制裁。美国的这一行动得到了中国外交部发言人形容为“毫无道理”。他接着说，“中国已经表示了强烈不满和坚决反对”。

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At the same time, China’s Xinhua Agency gave prominence to the statement made by Iran’s OPEC delegate Mohamed Ali Khatibi: “If the oil producing nations of the (Arab) Gulf decide to substitute Iran’s oil, then they will be held responsible for what happens”. Chinese analysts explained that China like India was irritated that Iranian oil sanctions opened the way for further de facto dominance of Saudi Arabia in world export supplies of oil, as well as higher prices.

与此同时，中国的新华社强调了伊朗的欧佩克代表穆罕默德·阿里卡提比的发言：“如果是（阿拉伯）海湾石油生产国决定替代伊朗石油，那么他们将要对发生的事情负责”。中国分析家解释说，中国和印度一样制裁伊朗石油出口被激怒了，制裁伊朗为事实上进一步加强沙特阿拉伯在世界石油供应的主导地位，以及高企的石油价格大开方便之门。

Iran is however only the third-largest supplier of oil to China, after Angola and Saudi Arabia, with Russia its fourth-largest supplier, using EIA data. This makes it necessary for China to run sustainable relations with the Wahabite Kingdom, which are made sustainable by actions like China’s Sinopec in 2012 part-funding the $8.5 billion 400 000 barrels-per-day refinery under construction in the Saudi Red Sea port city of Yanbu.

然而根据EIA的数据，伊朗仅是排在安哥拉和沙特之后出口石油到中国的第三大供应商，俄罗斯排第四。因此中国需要与瓦哈比派王国（即沙特）发展持续长久的关系，其手段是，沙特正在红海港口城市盐步建设一座涉及资金85亿美元，日产40万桶的炼油厂，中国石化在2012年为此项目提供部分资金。

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The Saudi news and propaganda outlet Al Arabiya repeatedly criticises China and India for their purchase of Iranian oil and refusal to fully apply US-inspired sanctions. A typical broadside of February 2013 was titled “Why is China still dealing with Iran?”, and notably cited US analysts operating in Saudi-funded or aided policy institutes, such as Washington’s Institute for Near East Policy as saying: “It’s time we wised up to this dangerous game. From Beijing’s perspective, Iran serves as an important strategic partner and point of leverage against the United States”. US analysts favourable to the Saudi strategy in the MENA – described with approval by President Eisenhower in the 1950s as able to establish a Hollywood style Saudi royal “Islamic Pope” for Muslim lands from Spain to Indonesia – say that Iran is also seen by China as a geopolitical partner able to help China countering US-Saudi and Israeli strategic action in the Middle East.

沙特新闻宣传发言人阿尔阿拉比亚多次批评中国和印度从伊朗购买石油并拒绝充分实施美国倡议的制裁。 2013年2月，一个典型猛烈抨击的题目是《为什么中国仍然和伊朗交往？》。沙特资助或支持一些政策研究机构，如华盛顿近东政策研究所。上文并特别提到，一位政策研究机构里的美国分析师说道：“我们早该识破认清这种危险策略了。从北京的角度来看，伊朗是一个重要的战略合作伙伴，对抗美国的杠杆支点“。沙特的在中东北非战略在1950年代被艾森豪威尔总统大加赞赏，称他们能在从西班牙到印度尼西亚的土地上的穆斯林国家建立一个好莱坞式的沙特皇家“伊斯兰教皇”。 赞成支持这个战略的美国分析家们说，伊朗也被中国看作为地缘政治合作伙伴，能够帮助中国在中东对付美国、沙特以色列的战略行动。

A 2012 study by US think tank RAND put it bluntly: “Isolated Iran locked in conflict with the United States provides China with a unique opportunity to expand its influence in the Middle East and could pull down the US military in the Gulf.” The RAND study noted that in the past two decades, Chinese engineers have built housing, bridges, dams, tunnels, railroads, pipelines, steelworks and power plants throughout Iran. The Tehran metro system completed between 2000 and 2006 was a major Chinese engineering project.

美国的智囊机构兰德公司在2012年的一项研究中直言不讳地说：“孤立的伊朗被困在与美国的冲突中为中国提供了一个独特的机会，以扩大其在中东地区的影响力，并可能在海湾将美国军队拉下水”兰德这项研究指出，在过去的二十年中，中国的工程师们在整个伊朗建造房屋，桥梁，水坝，隧道，铁路，管道，钢铁厂和发电厂。 于2000至2006年间完成的德黑兰地铁系统就是一个重要的中国工程项目。

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THE BIG PICTURE

大棋局

China’s Iran policy and strategy can be called “big picture”. Iranian aid and support to mostly but not exclusively Shia political movements, and insurgents stretches from SE Asia and South Asia, to West and Central Asia, Afghanistan, the Caspian region, and SE Europe to the MENA. It is however focused on the Arabian peninsula and is inevitably opposed to Saudi geostrategy. This is a known flashpoint and is able to literally trigger a third world war. Avoiding this is the big picture – for China.

中国的伊朗政策和战略可称为“大棋局”。伊朗的援助和支持对象大部集中但不限于什叶派政治运动以及叛乱分子，这些叛乱分子分布横跨东南亚、南亚延伸到西亚和中亚、阿富汗、里海地区和东南欧洲到中东北非的广大地区，但是更集中在阿拉伯半岛，并不可避免地反对沙特地缘战略。这个爆发点已为人所知，并能够如其字面意思那样引发第三次世界大战。避免其爆发就是中国的大棋局。

Li Weijian, the director of the Research Center of Asian and African Studies at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies puts it so: “China’s stance on the Iranian nuclear issue is not subject to Beijing’s demand for Iranian oil imports, but based on judgment of the whole picture.” China is guided in foreign relations by two basic principles, both of them reflecting domestic priorities. First, China wants a stable international environment so it can pursue domestic economic development without external shocks. Second, China is very sensitive to international policies that ‘interfere in or hamper sovereign decisions”, ultimately tracing to its experience in the 19th and 20th centuries at the hands of Western powers, and the USSR, before and after the emergence of the PRC. It adamantly opposes foreign interference in Taiwan, Tibet, and Xinjiang.

李维健是位于上海国际问题研究所的亚洲和非洲研究中心主任，他说：“中国在伊朗核问题上的立场是不受北京从伊朗进口石油的需求制约，而是基于对全局的判断。“中国的外交关系由两个基本原则指导，二者均反映国内优先。首先，中国需要一个稳定的国际环境，从而在没有外部冲击下致力于国内经济发展。第二，中国对“干涉或妨碍主权决定” 的国际政策非常敏感。对干涉主权的感受可以最终追溯到在19世纪和20世纪，新中国成立之前，中国在西方列强以及成立之后在苏联手中的经历。所以中国在台湾，西藏，新疆问题上坚决反对外国干涉。

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This includes radical Islamist or jihadi interference, backed by any foreign power. While China has on occasions suspected Tehran of stirring Islamic insurgency inside its borders it sees the US-Saudi geostrategy of employing jihadists to do their dirty work as a critical danger, and as wanton interference. Indian attitudes although not yet so firm, are evolving in the same general direction. Both are nuclear weapons powers with massive land armies and more than able to defend themselves.

干涉主权也包括激进的伊斯兰主义者或任何外国势力的支持的圣战的插手。中国怀疑德黑兰多次涉嫌煽动在中国境内的伊斯兰叛乱活动，但中国仍将美国和沙特利用圣战者做脏活的地缘战略看作为一个严重的危险和粗暴干涉中国主权。印度的态度虽然还没有如此坚定，但也在大致相同的方向上不断演变。两者都是拥核大国，陆军规模庞大，自保能力绰绰有余。

Claims by Western, mostly US analysts that China views Iran as exhibiting “unpredictable behaviour” in response to US-led sanctions and that Iran is “challenging China’s relations with its regional partners” can be dismissed. In particular and concerning oil, China is well aware that Iran will need many years of oil-sector development to return to anything like pre-Islamic revolution output of more than 5 million barrels a day. Unless oil sanctions are lifted, Iran’s oil output will go on declining, further increasing the power of the Gulf States led by Saudi Arabia, and Shia-governed but insurgency threatened Iraq to dictate export prices.

西方、主要是美国分析师主张，中国认为伊朗在应对美国主导的制裁时表现出“不可预知的行为”，同时伊朗“挑战中国与各地区合作伙伴关系”，这种主张可以不予考虑。特别是涉及到石油，中国也很清楚，伊朗将需要许多年发展石油部门以达到伊斯兰革命前每天500多万桶的石油产量。除非解除石油制裁，伊朗的石油产量将持续下降，进一步增加了以沙特阿拉伯为首的和受什叶派支配、为叛乱威胁所累的伊拉克等海湾国家操纵石油出口价格的权力。

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China dismisses the claim that its policies have hampered US and other Western political effort to dissuade Iran from developing nuclear weapons capability.

中国驳回了对其政策的断言，即中国政策妨碍了美国和其他西方国家劝阻伊朗发展核武器能力的政治努力。

China’s distaste for toppling almost any central government, even those run by dictatorial strongmen springs from a deep sense of history – marked by insecurity about the uncertain political legitimacy of governments arising from civil war and revolution – like the PRC. At its extreme, this Chinese nightmare extends to fears that if the US-Saudi geostrategy can topple governments in the Middle East almost overnight, what will stop them from working to bring down China’s government one day? Unlike almost all MENA countries minus the oil exporters, China has scored impressive victories in the fight against poverty. Its economy although slowing creates abundant jobs and opportunity.

中国对任何推翻中央政府的行为深恶痛绝，即使是那些独裁强人领导的政府也不例外。这种讨厌根植于深深的历史感 – 显然，像中国那样的从内战和革命中产生的政府，其政治合法性具有不确定性因而产生不安全感。在极端情况下，中国噩梦变成担心：如果美国和沙特的地缘战略能在中东地区几乎在一夜之间推翻政府，那么会有什么力量阻止它们有一天搞垮中国的政府？与几乎所有的中东北非国家（除去石油出口国家）不同，中国在消除贫困的斗争方面取得了的胜利，令人印象深刻。它的经济虽然放缓但仍创造了大量的的就业岗位和机遇。

For China, this is the only way to progress.

对于中国来说，这是进步的唯一途径。

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HARDENING POLICIES AND POSITIONS

不断强化的政策和立场

The emerging Chinese anti-Islamist strategy also underlines a menacing reality for the US and other Western powers. China rejects the belief there is still only one superpower in today’s world—the USA. The USA’s weakened economy and uncontrollable national debt, its confused and cowardly drone war, its slavish support to Israeli and Saudi whims do not impress China – or India.

中国正在显露的反伊斯兰战略还彰显了一个对美国和其他西方国家险恶的现实。中国拒绝确信，在当今世界，只有一个超级大国，即美国。同时，美国的疲软的经济和不可控的国债，其迷茫和懦弱无人机战争，其对以色列和沙特狂想予以盲目无条件的支持等等，无论是中国 - 还是印度都不为其所动。

To be sure China’s classic-conventional weapons development programs lag far behind the US. The Chinese military strategy for pushing back US dominance focuses global reach ballistic missiles, tactical nuclear weapons, drones, submarines, and military space and cyberwarfare capabilities.

可以肯定的是中国的经典常规武器发展计划远远落后于美国。要将美国从全球支配地位反推回去，中国的军事战略集中于全球抵达的弹道导弹，战术核武，无人机，潜艇，军用空间和网络战能力。

With the PLA it possesses the biggest land army in the world. No US warmonger, at least saner versions would “take on China”.

中国拥有解放军这样世界上最大规模的陆军。任何美国战争贩子，至少具有理智的战争贩子都不会“和中国较量”

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China has invested heavily in Iraq, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, as well as Iran. It does not want to see its investment effort destroyed by deliberately promoted Islamic anarchy. Also, its Middle Eastern presence will continue due to the fact that while US dependence on oil imports is declining, China overtook the US as the world’s largest oil importer on a daily basis, this year, several years ahead of analysts’ consensus forecasts.

中国已经在伊拉克，沙特阿拉伯和其他海湾国家，以及伊朗投入巨资，因此不希望看到其投资的努力毁于刻意推动伊斯兰无政府状态。此外，中国将继续保持在中东的存在是基于这样的事实，美国对石油进口的依赖正在下降的同时，按照每日进口量，中国今年已经超越美国成为世界上最大的石油进口国，这个时间比分析师们一致预测的时间提前好几年。

The likely result is that China is now poised and almost certain to strengthen relations with Iran. The intensifying Syrian crisis as well as the dangerously out of control US-Saudi-Israeli djihadi strategy, of fomenting sectarian conflict and destroying the nation state in the MENA, will likely prompt China to soon take major initiatives.

结果可能是，中国正准备并且几乎肯定要加强与伊朗的关系。日益加剧的叙利亚危机，以及在危险失控的美国沙特以色列的圣战战略，即挑起教派冲突，在中东北非地区摧毁民族国家的战略，可能会促使中国尽快采取重大举措。

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翻译者是龙腾网的endif，本人系转载，谢谢