对西方估计的对越自卫反击战中方伤亡的数据来源的考证

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首先根据维基百科,西方的数据来源是来自于King V. Chen(1987):China's War With Việt Nam, 1979. Hoover Institution Press, Stanford University, page 114。我之前在谷歌上看到过这本书,但是作者写的是King C. Chen(下面附上下载链接),至于他的数据是怎么来的,这书113页有写



96号注释也只是说来源于他的采访



也就是说这个数据是一个“学者”对来自大陆的“visitors”采访后的估计。


附上他死亡后的一篇新闻,对他生平有介绍


http://www.nytimes.com/1993/06/12/obituaries/king-c-chen-67-dies-studied-asian-politics.html


另外是那本书的下载链接

http://ishare.iask.sina.com.cn/f/15542820.html?from=like


对于他的生平,主要集中在这两段,大家看看就知道了。。。。


Dr. Chen had served as president of the Chinese-American Academic and Professional Society, vice president of the North American Chinese Social Science Society, chairman of the editorial board of the Central Daily News in Taipei, research member of the Taiwan Government's National Unification Council, adviser to the United States State Department and member of the editorial board of Asian Affairs. Born in Fujian, China, Dr. Chen graduated from National Chengchi University in Nanjing. He fled to Taiwan amid the Communist revolution then went to the United States on a scholarship.

首先根据维基百科,西方的数据来源是来自于King V. Chen(1987):China's War With Việt Nam, 1979. Hoover Institution Press, Stanford University, page 114。我之前在谷歌上看到过这本书,但是作者写的是King C. Chen(下面附上下载链接),至于他的数据是怎么来的,这书113页有写

a686c9177f3e67095a1c5a6f3bc79f3df8dc5505[1].jpg (38.45 KB, 下载次数: 3)

下载附件 保存到相册

2012-7-12 08:45 上传



96号注释也只是说来源于他的采访

VOS%HR%(JGV725N)7D{8L%X.jpg (5.09 KB, 下载次数: 2)

下载附件 保存到相册

2012-7-12 08:45 上传



也就是说这个数据是一个“学者”对来自大陆的“visitors”采访后的估计。


附上他死亡后的一篇新闻,对他生平有介绍


http://www.nytimes.com/1993/06/12/obituaries/king-c-chen-67-dies-studied-asian-politics.html


另外是那本书的下载链接

http://ishare.iask.sina.com.cn/f/15542820.html?from=like


对于他的生平,主要集中在这两段,大家看看就知道了。。。。


Dr. Chen had served as president of the Chinese-American Academic and Professional Society, vice president of the North American Chinese Social Science Society, chairman of the editorial board of the Central Daily News in Taipei, research member of the Taiwan Government's National Unification Council, adviser to the United States State Department and member of the editorial board of Asian Affairs. Born in Fujian, China, Dr. Chen graduated from National Chengchi University in Nanjing. He fled to Taiwan amid the Communist revolution then went to the United States on a scholarship.

这种采访没有接近原始材料,细节不清,人为因素较重,因而得到的东西与相对真实的数据也就差距很大。
沈晨曦 发表于 2012-7-12 09:57
这种采访没有接近原始材料,细节不清,人为因素较重,因而得到的东西与相对真实的数据也就差距很大。
看他的生平,我怀疑他的研究是有偏向性的。
因为现在流行“怀疑、打倒官方数据”这一套,所以有些人的三无产品,既没有一手资料、又没有旁证,但是因为大大有别于官方数据,并且满足一部分人的心理预期,所以大行其道
这一手跟文革那一套有什么区别
90年前的官方数据可信度很高的。
中央日报,国军的?
被封了... 发表于 2012-7-12 19:40
中央日报,国军的?
research member of the Taiwan Government's National Unification Council
既然是估计,那就基本可以没有谱的。学过概率的都知道,数学初始估计是随便取的。
昆明军区肯定有伤员统计的,只不过可能没解密而已