超级军网[原创翻译]龙年邮票与中美关系的龙年困境
来源：百度文库 编辑：超级军网 时间：2024/04/29 18:08:51
http://behindthewall.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/01/12/10136741-year-of-the-dragon-woes-for-china-us-ties
Year of the Dragon woes for China-U.S. ties?
中美关系的龙年困境？
By Eric Baculinao
BEIJING – Turns out the Year of the Dragon may be inauspicious for China-U.S. relations.
北京 -- 时间进入龙年，可能给中美关系带来不祥。
Beijing has just released a New Year’s commemorative stamp featuring a ferocious-looking dragon last week, stirring up talk that China was sending an intimidating message to the world. Meantime, the United States has proclaimed a new, more robust, military strategy in Asia.
北京上周刚刚发布了新年纪念邮票，票面图案是一条外观凶猛的龙，这引发了争论：中国正在向世界发出威胁的信息。与此同时，美国已经宣布了一项新的、更加强有力的亚洲军事战略。
Are the two countries headed for a dangerous confrontation? Is the U.S. beginning to pursue a Cold War-style containment policy toward China? What is China’s rightful place on the world stage?
这两个国家即将开始危险的对抗吗？美国正在开始追求一种冷战风格的遏制中国政策吗？中国在世界舞台上应该具有什么样的地位？
As Beijing prepares for events celebrating the 40th anniversary of President Richard Nixon’s landmark trip to China in 1972 that opened up official diplomacy between the two countries, analysts say the superpowers are entering a new chapter in their uneasy relationship.
在北京筹备活动，庆祝理查德·尼克松总统1972年开启两国正式外交关系、具有里程碑意义的访华行程40周年之际，分析家说，这两个超级大国正在进入不安定关系的新时期。
Questions about growing competition between the two super-powers are unnerving officials, as well as energizing opinion-makers, and bringing to the fore pessimistic theories about a possible great-power conflict.
关于两个超级大国之间竞争日益激烈的问题，使官员及充满活力的舆论推手们烦躁不安，并使潜在大国冲突的悲观理论浮出水面。
‘Don't blame the mirror designer’
“不要责怪镜子设计师”
The “fiery debate” sparked by the release of the official Year of the Dragon stamp was emblematic of China’s self-image issues as it continues to grow as a world power.
由正式发布的龙年邮票所引发的“激烈辩论”，是中国自身形象问题的一个象征，因为中国正在继续成长为一个世界强国。
The image shows the fang-baring face of the mythical ancestor of the Chinese, the most revered of the 12 animals in the Chinese Zodiac. Critics say the image sends a menacing message at a time of growing international unease over China’s rise.
票面图案是一条露出尖牙的龙，这是中国人的神话祖先，中国十二生肖中最被敬畏的动物。批评者说，在国际社会对中国崛起越发不安的时候，这幅图案发出了恐吓的信息。
“When I saw the design of the dragon stamp in a newspaper, I was almost scared to death,” said Zhang Yihe, a noted writer, said on her micro blog on Sina Weibo, a Twitter-like service.
著名作家章诒和，在类似“推特”的新浪微博上评论说：“打开报纸就看到这个壬辰龙票。吓死了！”
“It’s truly intimidating and powerful,” echoed another post. The “fierce stare and wide-open mouth” conveys an image that is “frightening and aggressive,” said another commentator.
“它真正具有威慑力和强大的实力。”另一篇回帖说。还有一名评论者说，“凶狠的注视和大张的嘴”传递的形象是“可怕而富有侵略性”。
The stamp’s graphic artist Chen Shaohua defended his work, however, writing in his blog that the image is reflective of China’s newly -found “national confidence” as a major world power.
然而，邮票图案的画家陈绍华为他的作品辩护，他在自己的博客上说，这种形象反映出了中国最新获得的作为主要世界大国的“民族自信心”。
While past dragon stamps showed the creature in more gracious, gentler poses in keeping with the early years of China’s opening up to the word, he said that this year’s image of a “powerful, intimidating, fierce and confident dragon” befits China’s “prestige and self-confidence.”
虽然过去的龙年邮票往往以更加亲切、更加温和的姿态展示这种生物，符合中国最初向世界开放的面貌，他说，今年的龙形象是“强大、有威慑力、凶猛而自信的龙”，这符合中国的“声望和自信”。
Yue Luping, another micro-blogger, likened the dragon stamp to a mirror. “We have destroyed the old mirror of ourselves as poor old dragon. After a hundred years, we see our image as powerful, menacing… Don’t blame the mirror designer. You may be scared of what you see in the new mirror, but don’t forget, what you see is our very own image,” he wrote.
另一名微博作者岳路平，把龙年邮票比喻成镜子。“100年前的革命，把华人集体意识的那面镜子砸碎了。陈绍华的龙票让我们100年后第一次重新看见自己的形象：强了、凶了、看起来不‘吉祥’了。我想说的是：我们莫怪造镜人，这是一面新的镜子，也许你害怕看到里面的形象，但是别忘了——那就是我们自己现在的形象。”（译注：以上文字为岳路平博客原文）
America’s shifting strategy
美国的战略转移
However, more baffling for the Chinese as they grapple with their global standing is the new defense strategy that U.S. President Barack Obama unveiled recently. It features a leaner military, but one with a greater focus on the Asia-Pacific and China’s growing power.
然而，当中国人努力获得全球地位时，更让他们困惑的是，美国总统奥巴马最近推出的国防新战略。它使军队更加精减，但是更加关注于亚太地区和中国不断增长的实力。
“The United States is deploying forces around the Asia-Pacific in advance in order to contain China’s rise,” warned Maj. Gen. Luo Yuan, writing on the official newspaper of China’s People’s Liberation Army, in the strongest Chinese reaction so far to America’s new strategy.
“美国正在围绕亚太地区提前部署军力，这是为了遏制中国的崛起。”罗援少将在中国官方报纸《解放军报》上警告说，这是迄今为止，中国对美国新战略的最强烈反应。
“Who can believe that you are not aiming this at China, that this is not the return of a Cold War mentality?” he asked on the Chinese-language Liberation Daily.
“谁能相信你不是针对中国，这不是冷战思维的回归吗？”他在中文版《解放日报》上发问。
“Obama said the country will ‘continue to get rid of outdated Cold War-era systems,’ it would do better to do away with its entire Cold War mentality,” declared the state-run China Daily. The newspaper added that both countries will lose if the U.S. regards the region “as a wrestling ring in which to contain emerging powers like China.”
国营媒体《中国日报》声称：“奥巴马说，美国将‘继续摆脱过时的冷战时代体系’，它最好消除整体的冷战思维。”该报还说，如果美国把该地区视为“遏制中国这样的新兴大国的摔跤场”，那么中美两国将会双输。
China’s official response has been more subdued, with the foreign ministry merely defending China’s policy as “defensive” and calling U.S. accusations as “groundless and untrustworthy."
中国官方的反应更加温和，外交部仅仅辩解说，中国的政策是“防御型”的，并宣称美国的指责“毫无根据，不值得信任”。
But in a recent briefing with a select group of Western and Chinese media that included NBC News, China’s chief diplomat in charge of U.S. relations shared his misgivings about the U.S. moves.
但是，就在最近，中国负责中美关系的首席外交官对挑选出的媒体小组简单介绍了情况。这个媒体小组包括NBC新闻在内的西方和中国媒体。这名外交官表达了他对美国举动的疑虑。
“Peace and prosperity are still what many countries want, not military alliances,” said Cui Tiankai, Chinese Vice-Foreign Minister.
“许多国家需要的仍然是和平与繁荣，而非军事同盟。”中国外交部副部长崔天凯说。
“I find it hard to understand why the U.S., which has the strongest military in the world, feels insecure about other countries,” said Cui. “I suggest the U.S. should do more to make other countries feel less worried about the U.S., so that other countries will feel safe and the U.S. will feel safe as well,” he added.
“我觉得很难理解，为什么具有世界上最强军事实力的美国，会对其他国家感到不安全。”崔天凯说。“我建议美国应该做更多的事，让其他国家不太担心美国，这样其他国家会感到安全，美国也会感到安全。”他补充说。
Doctrine of “offensive realism”
“进攻性现实主义”学说
But to Professor John J. Mearsheimer, America’s strategic shift and the intensifying security competition in Asia all seem inevitable.
但是对于约翰·米尔斯海默教授来说，美国的战略转移和亚洲安全竞争的加剧都似乎不可避免。
Mearsheimer, a professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, is an international relations theorist who authored the pioneering book, “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics,” which propounds the theory of “offensive realism." The doctrine regards all great powers as perpetually on the offensive, constantly seeking security by maximizing power. He broadly anticipated America’s response to China’s growing challenge.
米尔斯海默是芝加哥大学政治学教授和国际关系理论家，他著有开创性的著作《大国政治的悲剧》。该书提出了“进攻性现实主义”理论。这种学说认为，所有大国都具有永恒的进攻性，不断地通过实力最大化来寻求安全。他广泛地预期了美国对中国挑战日益严峻的回应。
In an interview with NBC News, Mearsheimer shared his views on the growing power play in Asia.
在接受NBC新闻采访时，米尔斯海默介绍了他对亚洲地区大国博弈不断增加的看法。
“The Obama administration is definitely worried about China’s growing power as well as its aggressive rhetoric over the past two years, and that is why it is beginning to build a balancing coalition to contain China,” he said.
“奥巴马ZF肯定会担心中国不断增长的实力和它在过去两年间的侵略性言辞，这就是为什么美国开始建立一个平衡的联盟，以遏制中国。”他说。
“My realist theory tells me that China will try to dominate the Asia-Pacific region as it grows more powerful and that the United States and China’s neighbors will try to contain Chinese power. It is too soon to say for sure whether my theory will be proved correct, but recent developments suggest that my theory will have a lot to say about Asia’s future,” he added.
“现实主义理论告诉我，当中国变得更加强大时，它就会试图支配亚太地区。美国和中国的邻国将试图遏制中国的实力。现在要说我的理论是否会被证明是正确的，还言之尚早，但是最近的事态发展表明，关于亚洲的未来，我的理论将说明一些问题。”他补充说。
Reflecting on the upcoming 40-year anniversary of Nixon’s landmark visit to China in 1972 that changed U.S.-China, Mearsheimer pointed out that U.S-China relations are based on realpolitik.
在谈到尼克松1972年具有历史意义的首次访华、导致美中关系改善40周年时，米尔斯海默指出，美中两国关系的基础是现实政治。
“Relations between the United States and China are largely determined by the balance of power in Asia, not by principles or ideals,” he said. “Beijing and Washington were driven together 40 years ago because they faced a common threat – the Soviet Union. But the Soviet Union is now gone and the Asian balance of power has changed drastically.”
“美国和中国之间的关系，在很大程度上取决于亚洲的力量平衡，而非原则或理想。”他说。“40年前，北京和华盛顿走到了一起，因为他们面对共同的威胁 -- 苏联。但是，现在苏联已经消失，亚洲力量平衡也已经极大地改变。”
For Mearsheimer, China’s new 21st century role in the world, has changed the power dynamic.
对于米尔斯海默来说，21世纪中国在世界上扮演的新角色，改变了实力动态。
“Today, China is the most powerful state in the region and if it continues its rapid growth over the next 30 years, it will be by far the most powerful country in Asia. I believe that it will try to dominate the region the way the United States dominates the Western Hemisphere. However, Washington will go to great lengths to prevent that outcome, which means that China and America are destined to become rivals if China continues its rise,” he observed.
“今天，中国是该地区最强大的国家，如果该国在未来30年中继续快速增长，它将会成为亚洲到目前为止的最强国。我相信，它将会试图借助美国支配西半球的方式，来支配这片地区。然而，华盛顿将竭尽全力防止这种情况的发生，这意味着，如果中国继续崛起，中国和美国注定要成为对手。”他评论说。
“There is little that Chinese or American leaders can do to avoid strategic competition, which carries with it the real possibility of armed conflict between those two great powers,” he warned.
“中国或美国的领导人基本上没有方法可以避免战略竞争，这种竞争带来了两个大国之间武装冲突的现实可能性。”他警告说。
Agreement and disagreement
同意和不同意
“I totally agree with Professor John Mearsheimer,” said Dr. Yan Xuetong, China’s top international security expert and dean of the Institute of Contemporary International Relations at Tsinghua University. “As the gap of comprehensive power between the U.S. and China narrows, the tension between the two will intensify and there will be more conflict rather than less,” he told NBC News.
清华大学当代国际关系研究院院长、中国顶级国际安全专家阎学通博士告诉NBC新闻说：“我完全同意米尔斯海默教授的看法。随着美国和中国之间综合实力的差距缩小，两国间的紧张关系将会加剧，冲突将会增多，而不是减少。”
“But I disagree that this competition will get out of control and escalate into war,” he said. “Both sides have nuclear weapons which will deter them from going to war. I have great confidence in nuclear weapons, which have the important political function of preventing war between China and the United States.”
“但是我不同意这种竞争将失控，并升级为战争。”他说。“双方都拥有核武器，这将阻止他们走向战争。我对核武器有极大的信心，它对防止中美战争，具有重要的政治功能。”
Professor Yan considers the recent developments as validation of his argument against the danger of “superficial friendship” between America and China. “I think that the ‘superficial friendship’ will turn into ‘superficial enmity’ this year,” he predicted.
阎教授认为，最近的事态发展验证了他对中美之间“表面友谊”带来危险的论点。“我认为，在今年，‘表面友谊’将变成‘表面敌意’。”他预测说。
“We are not partners but we need to carefully manage the competition to prevent it from escalating into a major confrontation,” he said.
“我们不是伙伴，但是我们需要认真对待竞争，防止它升级成为全面的对抗。”他说。
“If both sides fail to admit the competitive relationship and instead consider it as a partnership, then that, for me, will be very dangerous,” he warned.
“如果双方都不能承认这种竞争关系，而把它看作伙伴关系，那么，对我来说，这将是非常危险的。”他警告说。http://behindthewall.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/01/12/10136741-year-of-the-dragon-woes-for-china-us-ties
Year of the Dragon woes for China-U.S. ties?
中美关系的龙年困境？
By Eric Baculinao
BEIJING – Turns out the Year of the Dragon may be inauspicious for China-U.S. relations.
北京 -- 时间进入龙年，可能给中美关系带来不祥。
Beijing has just released a New Year’s commemorative stamp featuring a ferocious-looking dragon last week, stirring up talk that China was sending an intimidating message to the world. Meantime, the United States has proclaimed a new, more robust, military strategy in Asia.
北京上周刚刚发布了新年纪念邮票，票面图案是一条外观凶猛的龙，这引发了争论：中国正在向世界发出威胁的信息。与此同时，美国已经宣布了一项新的、更加强有力的亚洲军事战略。
Are the two countries headed for a dangerous confrontation? Is the U.S. beginning to pursue a Cold War-style containment policy toward China? What is China’s rightful place on the world stage?
这两个国家即将开始危险的对抗吗？美国正在开始追求一种冷战风格的遏制中国政策吗？中国在世界舞台上应该具有什么样的地位？
As Beijing prepares for events celebrating the 40th anniversary of President Richard Nixon’s landmark trip to China in 1972 that opened up official diplomacy between the two countries, analysts say the superpowers are entering a new chapter in their uneasy relationship.
在北京筹备活动，庆祝理查德·尼克松总统1972年开启两国正式外交关系、具有里程碑意义的访华行程40周年之际，分析家说，这两个超级大国正在进入不安定关系的新时期。
Questions about growing competition between the two super-powers are unnerving officials, as well as energizing opinion-makers, and bringing to the fore pessimistic theories about a possible great-power conflict.
关于两个超级大国之间竞争日益激烈的问题，使官员及充满活力的舆论推手们烦躁不安，并使潜在大国冲突的悲观理论浮出水面。
‘Don't blame the mirror designer’
“不要责怪镜子设计师”
The “fiery debate” sparked by the release of the official Year of the Dragon stamp was emblematic of China’s self-image issues as it continues to grow as a world power.
由正式发布的龙年邮票所引发的“激烈辩论”，是中国自身形象问题的一个象征，因为中国正在继续成长为一个世界强国。
The image shows the fang-baring face of the mythical ancestor of the Chinese, the most revered of the 12 animals in the Chinese Zodiac. Critics say the image sends a menacing message at a time of growing international unease over China’s rise.
票面图案是一条露出尖牙的龙，这是中国人的神话祖先，中国十二生肖中最被敬畏的动物。批评者说，在国际社会对中国崛起越发不安的时候，这幅图案发出了恐吓的信息。
“When I saw the design of the dragon stamp in a newspaper, I was almost scared to death,” said Zhang Yihe, a noted writer, said on her micro blog on Sina Weibo, a Twitter-like service.
著名作家章诒和，在类似“推特”的新浪微博上评论说：“打开报纸就看到这个壬辰龙票。吓死了！”
“It’s truly intimidating and powerful,” echoed another post. The “fierce stare and wide-open mouth” conveys an image that is “frightening and aggressive,” said another commentator.
“它真正具有威慑力和强大的实力。”另一篇回帖说。还有一名评论者说，“凶狠的注视和大张的嘴”传递的形象是“可怕而富有侵略性”。
The stamp’s graphic artist Chen Shaohua defended his work, however, writing in his blog that the image is reflective of China’s newly -found “national confidence” as a major world power.
然而，邮票图案的画家陈绍华为他的作品辩护，他在自己的博客上说，这种形象反映出了中国最新获得的作为主要世界大国的“民族自信心”。
While past dragon stamps showed the creature in more gracious, gentler poses in keeping with the early years of China’s opening up to the word, he said that this year’s image of a “powerful, intimidating, fierce and confident dragon” befits China’s “prestige and self-confidence.”
虽然过去的龙年邮票往往以更加亲切、更加温和的姿态展示这种生物，符合中国最初向世界开放的面貌，他说，今年的龙形象是“强大、有威慑力、凶猛而自信的龙”，这符合中国的“声望和自信”。
Yue Luping, another micro-blogger, likened the dragon stamp to a mirror. “We have destroyed the old mirror of ourselves as poor old dragon. After a hundred years, we see our image as powerful, menacing… Don’t blame the mirror designer. You may be scared of what you see in the new mirror, but don’t forget, what you see is our very own image,” he wrote.
另一名微博作者岳路平，把龙年邮票比喻成镜子。“100年前的革命，把华人集体意识的那面镜子砸碎了。陈绍华的龙票让我们100年后第一次重新看见自己的形象：强了、凶了、看起来不‘吉祥’了。我想说的是：我们莫怪造镜人，这是一面新的镜子，也许你害怕看到里面的形象，但是别忘了——那就是我们自己现在的形象。”（译注：以上文字为岳路平博客原文）
America’s shifting strategy
美国的战略转移
However, more baffling for the Chinese as they grapple with their global standing is the new defense strategy that U.S. President Barack Obama unveiled recently. It features a leaner military, but one with a greater focus on the Asia-Pacific and China’s growing power.
然而，当中国人努力获得全球地位时，更让他们困惑的是，美国总统奥巴马最近推出的国防新战略。它使军队更加精减，但是更加关注于亚太地区和中国不断增长的实力。
“The United States is deploying forces around the Asia-Pacific in advance in order to contain China’s rise,” warned Maj. Gen. Luo Yuan, writing on the official newspaper of China’s People’s Liberation Army, in the strongest Chinese reaction so far to America’s new strategy.
“美国正在围绕亚太地区提前部署军力，这是为了遏制中国的崛起。”罗援少将在中国官方报纸《解放军报》上警告说，这是迄今为止，中国对美国新战略的最强烈反应。
“Who can believe that you are not aiming this at China, that this is not the return of a Cold War mentality?” he asked on the Chinese-language Liberation Daily.
“谁能相信你不是针对中国，这不是冷战思维的回归吗？”他在中文版《解放日报》上发问。
“Obama said the country will ‘continue to get rid of outdated Cold War-era systems,’ it would do better to do away with its entire Cold War mentality,” declared the state-run China Daily. The newspaper added that both countries will lose if the U.S. regards the region “as a wrestling ring in which to contain emerging powers like China.”
国营媒体《中国日报》声称：“奥巴马说，美国将‘继续摆脱过时的冷战时代体系’，它最好消除整体的冷战思维。”该报还说，如果美国把该地区视为“遏制中国这样的新兴大国的摔跤场”，那么中美两国将会双输。
China’s official response has been more subdued, with the foreign ministry merely defending China’s policy as “defensive” and calling U.S. accusations as “groundless and untrustworthy."
中国官方的反应更加温和，外交部仅仅辩解说，中国的政策是“防御型”的，并宣称美国的指责“毫无根据，不值得信任”。
But in a recent briefing with a select group of Western and Chinese media that included NBC News, China’s chief diplomat in charge of U.S. relations shared his misgivings about the U.S. moves.
但是，就在最近，中国负责中美关系的首席外交官对挑选出的媒体小组简单介绍了情况。这个媒体小组包括NBC新闻在内的西方和中国媒体。这名外交官表达了他对美国举动的疑虑。
“Peace and prosperity are still what many countries want, not military alliances,” said Cui Tiankai, Chinese Vice-Foreign Minister.
“许多国家需要的仍然是和平与繁荣，而非军事同盟。”中国外交部副部长崔天凯说。
“I find it hard to understand why the U.S., which has the strongest military in the world, feels insecure about other countries,” said Cui. “I suggest the U.S. should do more to make other countries feel less worried about the U.S., so that other countries will feel safe and the U.S. will feel safe as well,” he added.
“我觉得很难理解，为什么具有世界上最强军事实力的美国，会对其他国家感到不安全。”崔天凯说。“我建议美国应该做更多的事，让其他国家不太担心美国，这样其他国家会感到安全，美国也会感到安全。”他补充说。
Doctrine of “offensive realism”
“进攻性现实主义”学说
But to Professor John J. Mearsheimer, America’s strategic shift and the intensifying security competition in Asia all seem inevitable.
但是对于约翰·米尔斯海默教授来说，美国的战略转移和亚洲安全竞争的加剧都似乎不可避免。
Mearsheimer, a professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, is an international relations theorist who authored the pioneering book, “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics,” which propounds the theory of “offensive realism." The doctrine regards all great powers as perpetually on the offensive, constantly seeking security by maximizing power. He broadly anticipated America’s response to China’s growing challenge.
米尔斯海默是芝加哥大学政治学教授和国际关系理论家，他著有开创性的著作《大国政治的悲剧》。该书提出了“进攻性现实主义”理论。这种学说认为，所有大国都具有永恒的进攻性，不断地通过实力最大化来寻求安全。他广泛地预期了美国对中国挑战日益严峻的回应。
In an interview with NBC News, Mearsheimer shared his views on the growing power play in Asia.
在接受NBC新闻采访时，米尔斯海默介绍了他对亚洲地区大国博弈不断增加的看法。
“The Obama administration is definitely worried about China’s growing power as well as its aggressive rhetoric over the past two years, and that is why it is beginning to build a balancing coalition to contain China,” he said.
“奥巴马ZF肯定会担心中国不断增长的实力和它在过去两年间的侵略性言辞，这就是为什么美国开始建立一个平衡的联盟，以遏制中国。”他说。
“My realist theory tells me that China will try to dominate the Asia-Pacific region as it grows more powerful and that the United States and China’s neighbors will try to contain Chinese power. It is too soon to say for sure whether my theory will be proved correct, but recent developments suggest that my theory will have a lot to say about Asia’s future,” he added.
“现实主义理论告诉我，当中国变得更加强大时，它就会试图支配亚太地区。美国和中国的邻国将试图遏制中国的实力。现在要说我的理论是否会被证明是正确的，还言之尚早，但是最近的事态发展表明，关于亚洲的未来，我的理论将说明一些问题。”他补充说。
Reflecting on the upcoming 40-year anniversary of Nixon’s landmark visit to China in 1972 that changed U.S.-China, Mearsheimer pointed out that U.S-China relations are based on realpolitik.
在谈到尼克松1972年具有历史意义的首次访华、导致美中关系改善40周年时，米尔斯海默指出，美中两国关系的基础是现实政治。
“Relations between the United States and China are largely determined by the balance of power in Asia, not by principles or ideals,” he said. “Beijing and Washington were driven together 40 years ago because they faced a common threat – the Soviet Union. But the Soviet Union is now gone and the Asian balance of power has changed drastically.”
“美国和中国之间的关系，在很大程度上取决于亚洲的力量平衡，而非原则或理想。”他说。“40年前，北京和华盛顿走到了一起，因为他们面对共同的威胁 -- 苏联。但是，现在苏联已经消失，亚洲力量平衡也已经极大地改变。”
For Mearsheimer, China’s new 21st century role in the world, has changed the power dynamic.
对于米尔斯海默来说，21世纪中国在世界上扮演的新角色，改变了实力动态。
“Today, China is the most powerful state in the region and if it continues its rapid growth over the next 30 years, it will be by far the most powerful country in Asia. I believe that it will try to dominate the region the way the United States dominates the Western Hemisphere. However, Washington will go to great lengths to prevent that outcome, which means that China and America are destined to become rivals if China continues its rise,” he observed.
“今天，中国是该地区最强大的国家，如果该国在未来30年中继续快速增长，它将会成为亚洲到目前为止的最强国。我相信，它将会试图借助美国支配西半球的方式，来支配这片地区。然而，华盛顿将竭尽全力防止这种情况的发生，这意味着，如果中国继续崛起，中国和美国注定要成为对手。”他评论说。
“There is little that Chinese or American leaders can do to avoid strategic competition, which carries with it the real possibility of armed conflict between those two great powers,” he warned.
“中国或美国的领导人基本上没有方法可以避免战略竞争，这种竞争带来了两个大国之间武装冲突的现实可能性。”他警告说。
Agreement and disagreement
同意和不同意
“I totally agree with Professor John Mearsheimer,” said Dr. Yan Xuetong, China’s top international security expert and dean of the Institute of Contemporary International Relations at Tsinghua University. “As the gap of comprehensive power between the U.S. and China narrows, the tension between the two will intensify and there will be more conflict rather than less,” he told NBC News.
清华大学当代国际关系研究院院长、中国顶级国际安全专家阎学通博士告诉NBC新闻说：“我完全同意米尔斯海默教授的看法。随着美国和中国之间综合实力的差距缩小，两国间的紧张关系将会加剧，冲突将会增多，而不是减少。”
“But I disagree that this competition will get out of control and escalate into war,” he said. “Both sides have nuclear weapons which will deter them from going to war. I have great confidence in nuclear weapons, which have the important political function of preventing war between China and the United States.”
“但是我不同意这种竞争将失控，并升级为战争。”他说。“双方都拥有核武器，这将阻止他们走向战争。我对核武器有极大的信心，它对防止中美战争，具有重要的政治功能。”
Professor Yan considers the recent developments as validation of his argument against the danger of “superficial friendship” between America and China. “I think that the ‘superficial friendship’ will turn into ‘superficial enmity’ this year,” he predicted.
阎教授认为，最近的事态发展验证了他对中美之间“表面友谊”带来危险的论点。“我认为，在今年，‘表面友谊’将变成‘表面敌意’。”他预测说。
“We are not partners but we need to carefully manage the competition to prevent it from escalating into a major confrontation,” he said.
“我们不是伙伴，但是我们需要认真对待竞争，防止它升级成为全面的对抗。”他说。
“If both sides fail to admit the competitive relationship and instead consider it as a partnership, then that, for me, will be very dangerous,” he warned.
“如果双方都不能承认这种竞争关系，而把它看作伙伴关系，那么，对我来说，这将是非常危险的。”他警告说。
Year of the Dragon woes for China-U.S. ties?
中美关系的龙年困境？
By Eric Baculinao
BEIJING – Turns out the Year of the Dragon may be inauspicious for China-U.S. relations.
北京 -- 时间进入龙年，可能给中美关系带来不祥。
Beijing has just released a New Year’s commemorative stamp featuring a ferocious-looking dragon last week, stirring up talk that China was sending an intimidating message to the world. Meantime, the United States has proclaimed a new, more robust, military strategy in Asia.
北京上周刚刚发布了新年纪念邮票，票面图案是一条外观凶猛的龙，这引发了争论：中国正在向世界发出威胁的信息。与此同时，美国已经宣布了一项新的、更加强有力的亚洲军事战略。
Are the two countries headed for a dangerous confrontation? Is the U.S. beginning to pursue a Cold War-style containment policy toward China? What is China’s rightful place on the world stage?
这两个国家即将开始危险的对抗吗？美国正在开始追求一种冷战风格的遏制中国政策吗？中国在世界舞台上应该具有什么样的地位？
As Beijing prepares for events celebrating the 40th anniversary of President Richard Nixon’s landmark trip to China in 1972 that opened up official diplomacy between the two countries, analysts say the superpowers are entering a new chapter in their uneasy relationship.
在北京筹备活动，庆祝理查德·尼克松总统1972年开启两国正式外交关系、具有里程碑意义的访华行程40周年之际，分析家说，这两个超级大国正在进入不安定关系的新时期。
Questions about growing competition between the two super-powers are unnerving officials, as well as energizing opinion-makers, and bringing to the fore pessimistic theories about a possible great-power conflict.
关于两个超级大国之间竞争日益激烈的问题，使官员及充满活力的舆论推手们烦躁不安，并使潜在大国冲突的悲观理论浮出水面。
‘Don't blame the mirror designer’
“不要责怪镜子设计师”
The “fiery debate” sparked by the release of the official Year of the Dragon stamp was emblematic of China’s self-image issues as it continues to grow as a world power.
由正式发布的龙年邮票所引发的“激烈辩论”，是中国自身形象问题的一个象征，因为中国正在继续成长为一个世界强国。
The image shows the fang-baring face of the mythical ancestor of the Chinese, the most revered of the 12 animals in the Chinese Zodiac. Critics say the image sends a menacing message at a time of growing international unease over China’s rise.
票面图案是一条露出尖牙的龙，这是中国人的神话祖先，中国十二生肖中最被敬畏的动物。批评者说，在国际社会对中国崛起越发不安的时候，这幅图案发出了恐吓的信息。
“When I saw the design of the dragon stamp in a newspaper, I was almost scared to death,” said Zhang Yihe, a noted writer, said on her micro blog on Sina Weibo, a Twitter-like service.
著名作家章诒和，在类似“推特”的新浪微博上评论说：“打开报纸就看到这个壬辰龙票。吓死了！”
“It’s truly intimidating and powerful,” echoed another post. The “fierce stare and wide-open mouth” conveys an image that is “frightening and aggressive,” said another commentator.
“它真正具有威慑力和强大的实力。”另一篇回帖说。还有一名评论者说，“凶狠的注视和大张的嘴”传递的形象是“可怕而富有侵略性”。
The stamp’s graphic artist Chen Shaohua defended his work, however, writing in his blog that the image is reflective of China’s newly -found “national confidence” as a major world power.
然而，邮票图案的画家陈绍华为他的作品辩护，他在自己的博客上说，这种形象反映出了中国最新获得的作为主要世界大国的“民族自信心”。
While past dragon stamps showed the creature in more gracious, gentler poses in keeping with the early years of China’s opening up to the word, he said that this year’s image of a “powerful, intimidating, fierce and confident dragon” befits China’s “prestige and self-confidence.”
虽然过去的龙年邮票往往以更加亲切、更加温和的姿态展示这种生物，符合中国最初向世界开放的面貌，他说，今年的龙形象是“强大、有威慑力、凶猛而自信的龙”，这符合中国的“声望和自信”。
Yue Luping, another micro-blogger, likened the dragon stamp to a mirror. “We have destroyed the old mirror of ourselves as poor old dragon. After a hundred years, we see our image as powerful, menacing… Don’t blame the mirror designer. You may be scared of what you see in the new mirror, but don’t forget, what you see is our very own image,” he wrote.
另一名微博作者岳路平，把龙年邮票比喻成镜子。“100年前的革命，把华人集体意识的那面镜子砸碎了。陈绍华的龙票让我们100年后第一次重新看见自己的形象：强了、凶了、看起来不‘吉祥’了。我想说的是：我们莫怪造镜人，这是一面新的镜子，也许你害怕看到里面的形象，但是别忘了——那就是我们自己现在的形象。”（译注：以上文字为岳路平博客原文）
America’s shifting strategy
美国的战略转移
However, more baffling for the Chinese as they grapple with their global standing is the new defense strategy that U.S. President Barack Obama unveiled recently. It features a leaner military, but one with a greater focus on the Asia-Pacific and China’s growing power.
然而，当中国人努力获得全球地位时，更让他们困惑的是，美国总统奥巴马最近推出的国防新战略。它使军队更加精减，但是更加关注于亚太地区和中国不断增长的实力。
“The United States is deploying forces around the Asia-Pacific in advance in order to contain China’s rise,” warned Maj. Gen. Luo Yuan, writing on the official newspaper of China’s People’s Liberation Army, in the strongest Chinese reaction so far to America’s new strategy.
“美国正在围绕亚太地区提前部署军力，这是为了遏制中国的崛起。”罗援少将在中国官方报纸《解放军报》上警告说，这是迄今为止，中国对美国新战略的最强烈反应。
“Who can believe that you are not aiming this at China, that this is not the return of a Cold War mentality?” he asked on the Chinese-language Liberation Daily.
“谁能相信你不是针对中国，这不是冷战思维的回归吗？”他在中文版《解放日报》上发问。
“Obama said the country will ‘continue to get rid of outdated Cold War-era systems,’ it would do better to do away with its entire Cold War mentality,” declared the state-run China Daily. The newspaper added that both countries will lose if the U.S. regards the region “as a wrestling ring in which to contain emerging powers like China.”
国营媒体《中国日报》声称：“奥巴马说，美国将‘继续摆脱过时的冷战时代体系’，它最好消除整体的冷战思维。”该报还说，如果美国把该地区视为“遏制中国这样的新兴大国的摔跤场”，那么中美两国将会双输。
China’s official response has been more subdued, with the foreign ministry merely defending China’s policy as “defensive” and calling U.S. accusations as “groundless and untrustworthy."
中国官方的反应更加温和，外交部仅仅辩解说，中国的政策是“防御型”的，并宣称美国的指责“毫无根据，不值得信任”。
But in a recent briefing with a select group of Western and Chinese media that included NBC News, China’s chief diplomat in charge of U.S. relations shared his misgivings about the U.S. moves.
但是，就在最近，中国负责中美关系的首席外交官对挑选出的媒体小组简单介绍了情况。这个媒体小组包括NBC新闻在内的西方和中国媒体。这名外交官表达了他对美国举动的疑虑。
“Peace and prosperity are still what many countries want, not military alliances,” said Cui Tiankai, Chinese Vice-Foreign Minister.
“许多国家需要的仍然是和平与繁荣，而非军事同盟。”中国外交部副部长崔天凯说。
“I find it hard to understand why the U.S., which has the strongest military in the world, feels insecure about other countries,” said Cui. “I suggest the U.S. should do more to make other countries feel less worried about the U.S., so that other countries will feel safe and the U.S. will feel safe as well,” he added.
“我觉得很难理解，为什么具有世界上最强军事实力的美国，会对其他国家感到不安全。”崔天凯说。“我建议美国应该做更多的事，让其他国家不太担心美国，这样其他国家会感到安全，美国也会感到安全。”他补充说。
Doctrine of “offensive realism”
“进攻性现实主义”学说
But to Professor John J. Mearsheimer, America’s strategic shift and the intensifying security competition in Asia all seem inevitable.
但是对于约翰·米尔斯海默教授来说，美国的战略转移和亚洲安全竞争的加剧都似乎不可避免。
Mearsheimer, a professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, is an international relations theorist who authored the pioneering book, “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics,” which propounds the theory of “offensive realism." The doctrine regards all great powers as perpetually on the offensive, constantly seeking security by maximizing power. He broadly anticipated America’s response to China’s growing challenge.
米尔斯海默是芝加哥大学政治学教授和国际关系理论家，他著有开创性的著作《大国政治的悲剧》。该书提出了“进攻性现实主义”理论。这种学说认为，所有大国都具有永恒的进攻性，不断地通过实力最大化来寻求安全。他广泛地预期了美国对中国挑战日益严峻的回应。
In an interview with NBC News, Mearsheimer shared his views on the growing power play in Asia.
在接受NBC新闻采访时，米尔斯海默介绍了他对亚洲地区大国博弈不断增加的看法。
“The Obama administration is definitely worried about China’s growing power as well as its aggressive rhetoric over the past two years, and that is why it is beginning to build a balancing coalition to contain China,” he said.
“奥巴马ZF肯定会担心中国不断增长的实力和它在过去两年间的侵略性言辞，这就是为什么美国开始建立一个平衡的联盟，以遏制中国。”他说。
“My realist theory tells me that China will try to dominate the Asia-Pacific region as it grows more powerful and that the United States and China’s neighbors will try to contain Chinese power. It is too soon to say for sure whether my theory will be proved correct, but recent developments suggest that my theory will have a lot to say about Asia’s future,” he added.
“现实主义理论告诉我，当中国变得更加强大时，它就会试图支配亚太地区。美国和中国的邻国将试图遏制中国的实力。现在要说我的理论是否会被证明是正确的，还言之尚早，但是最近的事态发展表明，关于亚洲的未来，我的理论将说明一些问题。”他补充说。
Reflecting on the upcoming 40-year anniversary of Nixon’s landmark visit to China in 1972 that changed U.S.-China, Mearsheimer pointed out that U.S-China relations are based on realpolitik.
在谈到尼克松1972年具有历史意义的首次访华、导致美中关系改善40周年时，米尔斯海默指出，美中两国关系的基础是现实政治。
“Relations between the United States and China are largely determined by the balance of power in Asia, not by principles or ideals,” he said. “Beijing and Washington were driven together 40 years ago because they faced a common threat – the Soviet Union. But the Soviet Union is now gone and the Asian balance of power has changed drastically.”
“美国和中国之间的关系，在很大程度上取决于亚洲的力量平衡，而非原则或理想。”他说。“40年前，北京和华盛顿走到了一起，因为他们面对共同的威胁 -- 苏联。但是，现在苏联已经消失，亚洲力量平衡也已经极大地改变。”
For Mearsheimer, China’s new 21st century role in the world, has changed the power dynamic.
对于米尔斯海默来说，21世纪中国在世界上扮演的新角色，改变了实力动态。
“Today, China is the most powerful state in the region and if it continues its rapid growth over the next 30 years, it will be by far the most powerful country in Asia. I believe that it will try to dominate the region the way the United States dominates the Western Hemisphere. However, Washington will go to great lengths to prevent that outcome, which means that China and America are destined to become rivals if China continues its rise,” he observed.
“今天，中国是该地区最强大的国家，如果该国在未来30年中继续快速增长，它将会成为亚洲到目前为止的最强国。我相信，它将会试图借助美国支配西半球的方式，来支配这片地区。然而，华盛顿将竭尽全力防止这种情况的发生，这意味着，如果中国继续崛起，中国和美国注定要成为对手。”他评论说。
“There is little that Chinese or American leaders can do to avoid strategic competition, which carries with it the real possibility of armed conflict between those two great powers,” he warned.
“中国或美国的领导人基本上没有方法可以避免战略竞争，这种竞争带来了两个大国之间武装冲突的现实可能性。”他警告说。
Agreement and disagreement
同意和不同意
“I totally agree with Professor John Mearsheimer,” said Dr. Yan Xuetong, China’s top international security expert and dean of the Institute of Contemporary International Relations at Tsinghua University. “As the gap of comprehensive power between the U.S. and China narrows, the tension between the two will intensify and there will be more conflict rather than less,” he told NBC News.
清华大学当代国际关系研究院院长、中国顶级国际安全专家阎学通博士告诉NBC新闻说：“我完全同意米尔斯海默教授的看法。随着美国和中国之间综合实力的差距缩小，两国间的紧张关系将会加剧，冲突将会增多，而不是减少。”
“But I disagree that this competition will get out of control and escalate into war,” he said. “Both sides have nuclear weapons which will deter them from going to war. I have great confidence in nuclear weapons, which have the important political function of preventing war between China and the United States.”
“但是我不同意这种竞争将失控，并升级为战争。”他说。“双方都拥有核武器，这将阻止他们走向战争。我对核武器有极大的信心，它对防止中美战争，具有重要的政治功能。”
Professor Yan considers the recent developments as validation of his argument against the danger of “superficial friendship” between America and China. “I think that the ‘superficial friendship’ will turn into ‘superficial enmity’ this year,” he predicted.
阎教授认为，最近的事态发展验证了他对中美之间“表面友谊”带来危险的论点。“我认为，在今年，‘表面友谊’将变成‘表面敌意’。”他预测说。
“We are not partners but we need to carefully manage the competition to prevent it from escalating into a major confrontation,” he said.
“我们不是伙伴，但是我们需要认真对待竞争，防止它升级成为全面的对抗。”他说。
“If both sides fail to admit the competitive relationship and instead consider it as a partnership, then that, for me, will be very dangerous,” he warned.
“如果双方都不能承认这种竞争关系，而把它看作伙伴关系，那么，对我来说，这将是非常危险的。”他警告说。http://behindthewall.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/01/12/10136741-year-of-the-dragon-woes-for-china-us-ties
Year of the Dragon woes for China-U.S. ties?
中美关系的龙年困境？
By Eric Baculinao
BEIJING – Turns out the Year of the Dragon may be inauspicious for China-U.S. relations.
北京 -- 时间进入龙年，可能给中美关系带来不祥。
Beijing has just released a New Year’s commemorative stamp featuring a ferocious-looking dragon last week, stirring up talk that China was sending an intimidating message to the world. Meantime, the United States has proclaimed a new, more robust, military strategy in Asia.
北京上周刚刚发布了新年纪念邮票，票面图案是一条外观凶猛的龙，这引发了争论：中国正在向世界发出威胁的信息。与此同时，美国已经宣布了一项新的、更加强有力的亚洲军事战略。
Are the two countries headed for a dangerous confrontation? Is the U.S. beginning to pursue a Cold War-style containment policy toward China? What is China’s rightful place on the world stage?
这两个国家即将开始危险的对抗吗？美国正在开始追求一种冷战风格的遏制中国政策吗？中国在世界舞台上应该具有什么样的地位？
As Beijing prepares for events celebrating the 40th anniversary of President Richard Nixon’s landmark trip to China in 1972 that opened up official diplomacy between the two countries, analysts say the superpowers are entering a new chapter in their uneasy relationship.
在北京筹备活动，庆祝理查德·尼克松总统1972年开启两国正式外交关系、具有里程碑意义的访华行程40周年之际，分析家说，这两个超级大国正在进入不安定关系的新时期。
Questions about growing competition between the two super-powers are unnerving officials, as well as energizing opinion-makers, and bringing to the fore pessimistic theories about a possible great-power conflict.
关于两个超级大国之间竞争日益激烈的问题，使官员及充满活力的舆论推手们烦躁不安，并使潜在大国冲突的悲观理论浮出水面。
‘Don't blame the mirror designer’
“不要责怪镜子设计师”
The “fiery debate” sparked by the release of the official Year of the Dragon stamp was emblematic of China’s self-image issues as it continues to grow as a world power.
由正式发布的龙年邮票所引发的“激烈辩论”，是中国自身形象问题的一个象征，因为中国正在继续成长为一个世界强国。
The image shows the fang-baring face of the mythical ancestor of the Chinese, the most revered of the 12 animals in the Chinese Zodiac. Critics say the image sends a menacing message at a time of growing international unease over China’s rise.
票面图案是一条露出尖牙的龙，这是中国人的神话祖先，中国十二生肖中最被敬畏的动物。批评者说，在国际社会对中国崛起越发不安的时候，这幅图案发出了恐吓的信息。
“When I saw the design of the dragon stamp in a newspaper, I was almost scared to death,” said Zhang Yihe, a noted writer, said on her micro blog on Sina Weibo, a Twitter-like service.
著名作家章诒和，在类似“推特”的新浪微博上评论说：“打开报纸就看到这个壬辰龙票。吓死了！”
“It’s truly intimidating and powerful,” echoed another post. The “fierce stare and wide-open mouth” conveys an image that is “frightening and aggressive,” said another commentator.
“它真正具有威慑力和强大的实力。”另一篇回帖说。还有一名评论者说，“凶狠的注视和大张的嘴”传递的形象是“可怕而富有侵略性”。
The stamp’s graphic artist Chen Shaohua defended his work, however, writing in his blog that the image is reflective of China’s newly -found “national confidence” as a major world power.
然而，邮票图案的画家陈绍华为他的作品辩护，他在自己的博客上说，这种形象反映出了中国最新获得的作为主要世界大国的“民族自信心”。
While past dragon stamps showed the creature in more gracious, gentler poses in keeping with the early years of China’s opening up to the word, he said that this year’s image of a “powerful, intimidating, fierce and confident dragon” befits China’s “prestige and self-confidence.”
虽然过去的龙年邮票往往以更加亲切、更加温和的姿态展示这种生物，符合中国最初向世界开放的面貌，他说，今年的龙形象是“强大、有威慑力、凶猛而自信的龙”，这符合中国的“声望和自信”。
Yue Luping, another micro-blogger, likened the dragon stamp to a mirror. “We have destroyed the old mirror of ourselves as poor old dragon. After a hundred years, we see our image as powerful, menacing… Don’t blame the mirror designer. You may be scared of what you see in the new mirror, but don’t forget, what you see is our very own image,” he wrote.
另一名微博作者岳路平，把龙年邮票比喻成镜子。“100年前的革命，把华人集体意识的那面镜子砸碎了。陈绍华的龙票让我们100年后第一次重新看见自己的形象：强了、凶了、看起来不‘吉祥’了。我想说的是：我们莫怪造镜人，这是一面新的镜子，也许你害怕看到里面的形象，但是别忘了——那就是我们自己现在的形象。”（译注：以上文字为岳路平博客原文）
America’s shifting strategy
美国的战略转移
However, more baffling for the Chinese as they grapple with their global standing is the new defense strategy that U.S. President Barack Obama unveiled recently. It features a leaner military, but one with a greater focus on the Asia-Pacific and China’s growing power.
然而，当中国人努力获得全球地位时，更让他们困惑的是，美国总统奥巴马最近推出的国防新战略。它使军队更加精减，但是更加关注于亚太地区和中国不断增长的实力。
“The United States is deploying forces around the Asia-Pacific in advance in order to contain China’s rise,” warned Maj. Gen. Luo Yuan, writing on the official newspaper of China’s People’s Liberation Army, in the strongest Chinese reaction so far to America’s new strategy.
“美国正在围绕亚太地区提前部署军力，这是为了遏制中国的崛起。”罗援少将在中国官方报纸《解放军报》上警告说，这是迄今为止，中国对美国新战略的最强烈反应。
“Who can believe that you are not aiming this at China, that this is not the return of a Cold War mentality?” he asked on the Chinese-language Liberation Daily.
“谁能相信你不是针对中国，这不是冷战思维的回归吗？”他在中文版《解放日报》上发问。
“Obama said the country will ‘continue to get rid of outdated Cold War-era systems,’ it would do better to do away with its entire Cold War mentality,” declared the state-run China Daily. The newspaper added that both countries will lose if the U.S. regards the region “as a wrestling ring in which to contain emerging powers like China.”
国营媒体《中国日报》声称：“奥巴马说，美国将‘继续摆脱过时的冷战时代体系’，它最好消除整体的冷战思维。”该报还说，如果美国把该地区视为“遏制中国这样的新兴大国的摔跤场”，那么中美两国将会双输。
China’s official response has been more subdued, with the foreign ministry merely defending China’s policy as “defensive” and calling U.S. accusations as “groundless and untrustworthy."
中国官方的反应更加温和，外交部仅仅辩解说，中国的政策是“防御型”的，并宣称美国的指责“毫无根据，不值得信任”。
But in a recent briefing with a select group of Western and Chinese media that included NBC News, China’s chief diplomat in charge of U.S. relations shared his misgivings about the U.S. moves.
但是，就在最近，中国负责中美关系的首席外交官对挑选出的媒体小组简单介绍了情况。这个媒体小组包括NBC新闻在内的西方和中国媒体。这名外交官表达了他对美国举动的疑虑。
“Peace and prosperity are still what many countries want, not military alliances,” said Cui Tiankai, Chinese Vice-Foreign Minister.
“许多国家需要的仍然是和平与繁荣，而非军事同盟。”中国外交部副部长崔天凯说。
“I find it hard to understand why the U.S., which has the strongest military in the world, feels insecure about other countries,” said Cui. “I suggest the U.S. should do more to make other countries feel less worried about the U.S., so that other countries will feel safe and the U.S. will feel safe as well,” he added.
“我觉得很难理解，为什么具有世界上最强军事实力的美国，会对其他国家感到不安全。”崔天凯说。“我建议美国应该做更多的事，让其他国家不太担心美国，这样其他国家会感到安全，美国也会感到安全。”他补充说。
Doctrine of “offensive realism”
“进攻性现实主义”学说
But to Professor John J. Mearsheimer, America’s strategic shift and the intensifying security competition in Asia all seem inevitable.
但是对于约翰·米尔斯海默教授来说，美国的战略转移和亚洲安全竞争的加剧都似乎不可避免。
Mearsheimer, a professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, is an international relations theorist who authored the pioneering book, “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics,” which propounds the theory of “offensive realism." The doctrine regards all great powers as perpetually on the offensive, constantly seeking security by maximizing power. He broadly anticipated America’s response to China’s growing challenge.
米尔斯海默是芝加哥大学政治学教授和国际关系理论家，他著有开创性的著作《大国政治的悲剧》。该书提出了“进攻性现实主义”理论。这种学说认为，所有大国都具有永恒的进攻性，不断地通过实力最大化来寻求安全。他广泛地预期了美国对中国挑战日益严峻的回应。
In an interview with NBC News, Mearsheimer shared his views on the growing power play in Asia.
在接受NBC新闻采访时，米尔斯海默介绍了他对亚洲地区大国博弈不断增加的看法。
“The Obama administration is definitely worried about China’s growing power as well as its aggressive rhetoric over the past two years, and that is why it is beginning to build a balancing coalition to contain China,” he said.
“奥巴马ZF肯定会担心中国不断增长的实力和它在过去两年间的侵略性言辞，这就是为什么美国开始建立一个平衡的联盟，以遏制中国。”他说。
“My realist theory tells me that China will try to dominate the Asia-Pacific region as it grows more powerful and that the United States and China’s neighbors will try to contain Chinese power. It is too soon to say for sure whether my theory will be proved correct, but recent developments suggest that my theory will have a lot to say about Asia’s future,” he added.
“现实主义理论告诉我，当中国变得更加强大时，它就会试图支配亚太地区。美国和中国的邻国将试图遏制中国的实力。现在要说我的理论是否会被证明是正确的，还言之尚早，但是最近的事态发展表明，关于亚洲的未来，我的理论将说明一些问题。”他补充说。
Reflecting on the upcoming 40-year anniversary of Nixon’s landmark visit to China in 1972 that changed U.S.-China, Mearsheimer pointed out that U.S-China relations are based on realpolitik.
在谈到尼克松1972年具有历史意义的首次访华、导致美中关系改善40周年时，米尔斯海默指出，美中两国关系的基础是现实政治。
“Relations between the United States and China are largely determined by the balance of power in Asia, not by principles or ideals,” he said. “Beijing and Washington were driven together 40 years ago because they faced a common threat – the Soviet Union. But the Soviet Union is now gone and the Asian balance of power has changed drastically.”
“美国和中国之间的关系，在很大程度上取决于亚洲的力量平衡，而非原则或理想。”他说。“40年前，北京和华盛顿走到了一起，因为他们面对共同的威胁 -- 苏联。但是，现在苏联已经消失，亚洲力量平衡也已经极大地改变。”
For Mearsheimer, China’s new 21st century role in the world, has changed the power dynamic.
对于米尔斯海默来说，21世纪中国在世界上扮演的新角色，改变了实力动态。
“Today, China is the most powerful state in the region and if it continues its rapid growth over the next 30 years, it will be by far the most powerful country in Asia. I believe that it will try to dominate the region the way the United States dominates the Western Hemisphere. However, Washington will go to great lengths to prevent that outcome, which means that China and America are destined to become rivals if China continues its rise,” he observed.
“今天，中国是该地区最强大的国家，如果该国在未来30年中继续快速增长，它将会成为亚洲到目前为止的最强国。我相信，它将会试图借助美国支配西半球的方式，来支配这片地区。然而，华盛顿将竭尽全力防止这种情况的发生，这意味着，如果中国继续崛起，中国和美国注定要成为对手。”他评论说。
“There is little that Chinese or American leaders can do to avoid strategic competition, which carries with it the real possibility of armed conflict between those two great powers,” he warned.
“中国或美国的领导人基本上没有方法可以避免战略竞争，这种竞争带来了两个大国之间武装冲突的现实可能性。”他警告说。
Agreement and disagreement
同意和不同意
“I totally agree with Professor John Mearsheimer,” said Dr. Yan Xuetong, China’s top international security expert and dean of the Institute of Contemporary International Relations at Tsinghua University. “As the gap of comprehensive power between the U.S. and China narrows, the tension between the two will intensify and there will be more conflict rather than less,” he told NBC News.
清华大学当代国际关系研究院院长、中国顶级国际安全专家阎学通博士告诉NBC新闻说：“我完全同意米尔斯海默教授的看法。随着美国和中国之间综合实力的差距缩小，两国间的紧张关系将会加剧，冲突将会增多，而不是减少。”
“But I disagree that this competition will get out of control and escalate into war,” he said. “Both sides have nuclear weapons which will deter them from going to war. I have great confidence in nuclear weapons, which have the important political function of preventing war between China and the United States.”
“但是我不同意这种竞争将失控，并升级为战争。”他说。“双方都拥有核武器，这将阻止他们走向战争。我对核武器有极大的信心，它对防止中美战争，具有重要的政治功能。”
Professor Yan considers the recent developments as validation of his argument against the danger of “superficial friendship” between America and China. “I think that the ‘superficial friendship’ will turn into ‘superficial enmity’ this year,” he predicted.
阎教授认为，最近的事态发展验证了他对中美之间“表面友谊”带来危险的论点。“我认为，在今年，‘表面友谊’将变成‘表面敌意’。”他预测说。
“We are not partners but we need to carefully manage the competition to prevent it from escalating into a major confrontation,” he said.
“我们不是伙伴，但是我们需要认真对待竞争，防止它升级成为全面的对抗。”他说。
“If both sides fail to admit the competitive relationship and instead consider it as a partnership, then that, for me, will be very dangerous,” he warned.
“如果双方都不能承认这种竞争关系，而把它看作伙伴关系，那么，对我来说，这将是非常危险的。”他警告说。
我正在绞尽脑汁怎么搞到一版龙票来收藏。
想问一下历史学得好的，在圣经里是否有关于龙的一段故事？
13亿中国人的正常诉求在西方眼里就是不正常的。