【原创翻译】太平洋之战将重塑世界

The Pentagon briefing room rarely hosts all of America’s service chiefs, let alone the president. Its use by Barack Obama to announce the conclusions of his defence review was designed to add a sense of drama – and the occasion certainly lived up to its billing. Future historians will probably conclude that this was the week when America’s entire foreign and defence strategy pivoted decisively away from Europe and towards the Pacific. More ominously, it might also mark the onset of a new, if concealed, arms race between the US and its aspiring rival, China.
五角大楼的简报室很少迎来美国的全体现任领导，更不用说总统了。巴拉克·奥巴马在这里发表他的国防审查总结是为了增加一点戏剧效果---而此情此景确实够得上它的演员阵容。未来的历史学家可能会总结，正是在这一周，美国整个的外交与国防战略从欧洲果断地转向了太平洋。更不详的是，它还标志着美国与它抱负不凡的对手中国之间，一场新的---如果是隐蔽的---军备竞赛的开端。

First things first: America’s military dominance will remain unchallenged for the foreseeable future. Mr Obama might have announced spending cuts of almost $500 billion over the next decade, but this amounts to a light trim for a defence machine with an annual budget of $650 billion, amounting to 45 per cent of all military expenditure in the world. America is not axing capabilities in the foolish fashion of British governments; rather, its power is being focused on the great strategic challenges of the next century. These can be simply summarised: the struggle for mastery in Asia, home of the world’s most populous countries and fastest-growing economies, and responding to sudden crises. To this end, the US will reduce its presence in Europe, cut 90,000 soldiers and bulk up in the Pacific, with new bases in Australia and elsewhere. As for other flashpoints, few will be surprised that the US policy stresses the goals of containing Iran and guaranteeing free passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
首先要明确：在可预见的未来，美国的军事优势仍然是没有异议的。奥巴马先生或许已声明在未来十年削减5000亿美元开支，但这对于年预算6500亿美元、消耗全球军费开支45%的战争机器来说只是小小的修剪。美国没有脑残跟风英国政府自废武功；相反地，它的力量都集中于下个世纪的巨大战略挑战。简单总结起来就是：争夺亚洲控制权---那里有世界上人口最多的几个国家和发展最快的经济体，以及处理突然发生的危机。为此，美国将要减少它在欧洲的存在，撤出90000士兵，并通过在澳大利亚与其他地区的军事基地来增大在太平洋的力量。至于其他关键点，没人会对美国加紧遏制伊朗和确保霍尔木兹海峡畅通的政策感到惊讶。
On a purely military level, two points stand out. The US might be cutting its army, but it has ruled out reducing its fleet of 11 aircraft carriers, each of which packs more punch than the entire air forces of most countries. While China’s defence budget has recorded double-digit increases for the past decade, it has still launched only one carrier – an old Russian model of doubtful combat value. Second, Mr Obama stressed his determination to invest in “intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance”. Put simply, the US will seek to extend its lead in the most advanced combat systems: where scores of troops – and hundreds of support staff – might once have been required to dispatch a senior al-Qaeda operative, now one unmanned drone can do the job.
单纯在军事层面上，有显著的两点。美国或许会裁军，但是却排除了削减它11艘航母舰队的可能，而其中的任何一艘都拥有比世界上大部分国家全部空军更强大的打击力量。虽然中国的国防预算在过去十年里实现了创纪录的两位数增长，但是它只下水了一艘航母-----一艘战力成疑的老旧俄国改造货。第二，奥巴马先生强调了他对“情报，监听，侦查”进行投入的决心。简单地说，美国会寻求增大它在最先进战斗系统上的领先优势：作战部队--以及数百支持人员--的任务曾经需要派遣一名高级基地间谍，现在只要一架无人机。

America’s new course could well be shifted by a strategic shock akin to the September 11 attacks. Nevertheless, this plan will have momentous consequences for Europe and Asia alike. For decades, the US has underwritten the security of the Atlantic as well as the Pacific, effectively allowing Europe a free ride and permitting a string of Nato members the luxury of running down their defence budgets. This era is rapidly coming to a close. Yet with a few honourable exceptions, such as Britain and France, European powers have failed to fund their armed forces adequately, or deploy them when needed. Germany, in particular, must overcome the burden of its history and face up to the responsibilities that go with being the Continent’s leading economic power.
美国的新目标仍可能会被类似于911这样的战略冲击所打乱。尽管如此，这个计划将会对欧洲和亚洲同样产生重大影响。数十年来，美国为大西洋和太平洋的安全买单，实际上让欧洲搭了顺风车并允许一连串的北约成员奢侈地停止他们的国防预算。这种时代快要结束了。除了几个高尚的例外---英国与法国，欧洲列强已经无法足额投钱到他们的武装力量，或者在需要的时候扩编他们。特别是德国，必须克服它历史的重担并去面对作为欧洲大陆主要经济力量的责任。
Mr Obama’s address studiously refrained from mentioning China, the country that probably has most at stake. Beijing’s leaders will now have to make far-reaching choices of their own. As events in Burma have shown, China’s “peaceful rise” has alarmed many of its neighbours: for most countries in the region, American power and values remain far more appealing. Moreover, China has grown rich largely thanks to trade, not least with the US. Faced with the net of containment that America is quietly laying across the Pacific, China will search for the Achilles’ heel of the US Navy, perfecting a new generation of missiles capable of destroying aircraft carriers from hundreds of miles away, working out how to cripple the internet, and how to blind the US satellite network, on which all its military assets now depend.
奥巴马先生的演讲尽力避免提到中国，它可能拥有美国的最大债权。北京的领导们现在也必须做出他们的长远抉择。在缅甸发生的事情表明，中国的“和平崛起”已经惊动了它的许多邻居：对该地区的大多数国家，美国的力量和价值观依然更有吸引力。此外，中国的富强得益于贸易，特别是与美国的。面对美国悄然布满太平洋的遏制之网，中国将会寻找美国海军的阿喀琉斯之踝，中国将会寻找美国海军的阿喀琉斯之踝，改进能够在上千英里外摧毁航母的新一代导弹，寻求瘫痪网络和致盲美国卫星网的方法，美国现在所有的军事装备都依赖于此。
The world will pay a bitter price, however, if this veiled arms race between America and China escalates. History shows that free trade and military rivalry – however disguised – make for uncomfortable bedfellows. Beijing has gained rapidly in both wealth and power. The manner in which it chooses to pursue them now will have consequences for us all.
如果美中之间隐蔽的军备竞赛升级的话，无论如何，世界都将付出惨痛的代价。历史表明，自由贸易与军事对抗----尽管是隐蔽的-----会带来尴尬的状况。北京在财富和权力上都快速增长。它追求财富与权力时选择的方法会对我们所有人产生影响。


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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/8998411/The-battle-for-the-Pacific-will-reshape-the-world.html

The Pentagon briefing room rarely hosts all of America’s service chiefs, let alone the president. Its use by Barack Obama to announce the conclusions of his defence review was designed to add a sense of drama – and the occasion certainly lived up to its billing. Future historians will probably conclude that this was the week when America’s entire foreign and defence strategy pivoted decisively away from Europe and towards the Pacific. More ominously, it might also mark the onset of a new, if concealed, arms race between the US and its aspiring rival, China.
五角大楼的简报室很少迎来美国的全体现任领导，更不用说总统了。巴拉克·奥巴马在这里发表他的国防审查总结是为了增加一点戏剧效果---而此情此景确实够得上它的演员阵容。未来的历史学家可能会总结，正是在这一周，美国整个的外交与国防战略从欧洲果断地转向了太平洋。更不详的是，它还标志着美国与它抱负不凡的对手中国之间，一场新的---如果是隐蔽的---军备竞赛的开端。

First things first: America’s military dominance will remain unchallenged for the foreseeable future. Mr Obama might have announced spending cuts of almost $500 billion over the next decade, but this amounts to a light trim for a defence machine with an annual budget of $650 billion, amounting to 45 per cent of all military expenditure in the world. America is not axing capabilities in the foolish fashion of British governments; rather, its power is being focused on the great strategic challenges of the next century. These can be simply summarised: the struggle for mastery in Asia, home of the world’s most populous countries and fastest-growing economies, and responding to sudden crises. To this end, the US will reduce its presence in Europe, cut 90,000 soldiers and bulk up in the Pacific, with new bases in Australia and elsewhere. As for other flashpoints, few will be surprised that the US policy stresses the goals of containing Iran and guaranteeing free passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
首先要明确：在可预见的未来，美国的军事优势仍然是没有异议的。奥巴马先生或许已声明在未来十年削减5000亿美元开支，但这对于年预算6500亿美元、消耗全球军费开支45%的战争机器来说只是小小的修剪。美国没有脑残跟风英国政府自废武功；相反地，它的力量都集中于下个世纪的巨大战略挑战。简单总结起来就是：争夺亚洲控制权---那里有世界上人口最多的几个国家和发展最快的经济体，以及处理突然发生的危机。为此，美国将要减少它在欧洲的存在，撤出90000士兵，并通过在澳大利亚与其他地区的军事基地来增大在太平洋的力量。至于其他关键点，没人会对美国加紧遏制伊朗和确保霍尔木兹海峡畅通的政策感到惊讶。
On a purely military level, two points stand out. The US might be cutting its army, but it has ruled out reducing its fleet of 11 aircraft carriers, each of which packs more punch than the entire air forces of most countries. While China’s defence budget has recorded double-digit increases for the past decade, it has still launched only one carrier – an old Russian model of doubtful combat value. Second, Mr Obama stressed his determination to invest in “intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance”. Put simply, the US will seek to extend its lead in the most advanced combat systems: where scores of troops – and hundreds of support staff – might once have been required to dispatch a senior al-Qaeda operative, now one unmanned drone can do the job.
单纯在军事层面上，有显著的两点。美国或许会裁军，但是却排除了削减它11艘航母舰队的可能，而其中的任何一艘都拥有比世界上大部分国家全部空军更强大的打击力量。虽然中国的国防预算在过去十年里实现了创纪录的两位数增长，但是它只下水了一艘航母-----一艘战力成疑的老旧俄国改造货。第二，奥巴马先生强调了他对“情报，监听，侦查”进行投入的决心。简单地说，美国会寻求增大它在最先进战斗系统上的领先优势：作战部队--以及数百支持人员--的任务曾经需要派遣一名高级基地间谍，现在只要一架无人机。

America’s new course could well be shifted by a strategic shock akin to the September 11 attacks. Nevertheless, this plan will have momentous consequences for Europe and Asia alike. For decades, the US has underwritten the security of the Atlantic as well as the Pacific, effectively allowing Europe a free ride and permitting a string of Nato members the luxury of running down their defence budgets. This era is rapidly coming to a close. Yet with a few honourable exceptions, such as Britain and France, European powers have failed to fund their armed forces adequately, or deploy them when needed. Germany, in particular, must overcome the burden of its history and face up to the responsibilities that go with being the Continent’s leading economic power.
美国的新目标仍可能会被类似于911这样的战略冲击所打乱。尽管如此，这个计划将会对欧洲和亚洲同样产生重大影响。数十年来，美国为大西洋和太平洋的安全买单，实际上让欧洲搭了顺风车并允许一连串的北约成员奢侈地停止他们的国防预算。这种时代快要结束了。除了几个高尚的例外---英国与法国，欧洲列强已经无法足额投钱到他们的武装力量，或者在需要的时候扩编他们。特别是德国，必须克服它历史的重担并去面对作为欧洲大陆主要经济力量的责任。
Mr Obama’s address studiously refrained from mentioning China, the country that probably has most at stake. Beijing’s leaders will now have to make far-reaching choices of their own. As events in Burma have shown, China’s “peaceful rise” has alarmed many of its neighbours: for most countries in the region, American power and values remain far more appealing. Moreover, China has grown rich largely thanks to trade, not least with the US. Faced with the net of containment that America is quietly laying across the Pacific, China will search for the Achilles’ heel of the US Navy, perfecting a new generation of missiles capable of destroying aircraft carriers from hundreds of miles away, working out how to cripple the internet, and how to blind the US satellite network, on which all its military assets now depend.
奥巴马先生的演讲尽力避免提到中国，它可能拥有美国的最大债权。北京的领导们现在也必须做出他们的长远抉择。在缅甸发生的事情表明，中国的“和平崛起”已经惊动了它的许多邻居：对该地区的大多数国家，美国的力量和价值观依然更有吸引力。此外，中国的富强得益于贸易，特别是与美国的。面对美国悄然布满太平洋的遏制之网，中国将会寻找美国海军的阿喀琉斯之踝，中国将会寻找美国海军的阿喀琉斯之踝，改进能够在上千英里外摧毁航母的新一代导弹，寻求瘫痪网络和致盲美国卫星网的方法，美国现在所有的军事装备都依赖于此。
The world will pay a bitter price, however, if this veiled arms race between America and China escalates. History shows that free trade and military rivalry – however disguised – make for uncomfortable bedfellows. Beijing has gained rapidly in both wealth and power. The manner in which it chooses to pursue them now will have consequences for us all.
如果美中之间隐蔽的军备竞赛升级的话，无论如何，世界都将付出惨痛的代价。历史表明，自由贸易与军事对抗----尽管是隐蔽的-----会带来尴尬的状况。北京在财富和权力上都快速增长。它追求财富与权力时选择的方法会对我们所有人产生影响。


=====
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/telegraph-view/8998411/The-battle-for-the-Pacific-will-reshape-the-world.html