为何中国不介意置身TPP之外

Why China doesn’t mind being left out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com
为何中国不介意置身TTP之外
龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com
http://www.usatoday.com/story/ne ... rtnership/73640192/



In case you hadn’t heard, the Trans-Pacific Partnership is a really big deal — unless you're China.
The largest regional trade agreement in history involves the United States and 11 countries in the Asia Pacific and the Americas, which collectively represent about 40% of world GDP and around a quarter of global exports.
More than five years in the making, the TPP, as it is commonly referred to, was finalized on Monday, but it still needs the approval of lawmakers in member countries, including the U.S. Congress.

TPP是一件大事，不过对中国而言就不是了。
TPP是史上最大的区域贸易协定，涵括美国及十一个亚太及美洲国家，共计40%的全球GDP、大约四分之一的全球出口额。
超过5年的协商，TPP于本周一最终完成，不过仍然需要各成员国立法机构批准，包括美国议会。

Given the importance of the accord, which is designed to boost cross-border trade and investment among member countries and, ultimately, economic growth, it might seem strange that China, the world’s second largest economy and biggest trading nation on the planet, has been left out.
While a lot of the details of the deal are still secret, the TPP is clearly more than just a free trade agreement. In addition to slashing or eliminating 98% of tariffs on thousands of goods including dairy, beef, sugar, cars, tractors and chemicals, it also establishes common rules and regulations for trade and investment across member countries as well as external tribunals to sort out disputes.

鉴于协议的重要性，尤其是其推动成员国间跨境贸易与投资、最终促进经济增长的初衷，缺少中国这个世界上第二大经济体、这个星球上最大的贸易国的参与让人觉得奇怪。
尽管许多条款细节仍然是机密，TPP明显超过了一般的自贸协议。除了去除98%数以万计商品、涵括了乳制品、牛肉、糖、汽车、拖拉机及化学制品等的关税外，TPP还制定了成员国间关于贸易和投资通行的规则、法规以及解决争端的外部仲裁机构。

TPP member states will include the United States, Japan, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, Brunei, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Mexico, Chile and Peru. More countries are expected to join the exclusive trading club, but given the tough membership rules, China is not expected to sign up any time soon.
Perhaps never.

TPP成员将包括美国、日本、马来西亚、越南、新加坡、文莱、澳大利亚、新西兰、加拿大、墨西哥、智利及秘鲁。更多的国家将会加入这个排外的贸易社团，不过由于成员资格规则苛刻，中国预计将不会急着签约加入。

也可能永远不会。

Excluding China has been widely interpreted as an attempt by the United States to curtail Beijing’s growing political and economic might in the Asia Pacific region, and some experts have described it as a “terrible mistake.”
But does Beijing really care? Possibly not as much as you might think.
For starters, China doesn’t need to belong to the TPP to enjoy some of the perks that come with being a member.

排斥中国被广泛解读为美国压制北京在亚太区域不断增长的政治和经济力量，有专家称之为“可怕的错误”。

Beijing already has free trade agreements with more than half of the TPP countries, including Australia, New Zealand, Chile, Peru, Singapore, Brunei and Vietnam, and it can exploit those arrangements to minimize or avoid import duties that would normally apply to made-in-China products.
Felipe Caro and Christopher Tang of UCLA's Anderson School of Managementexplained in Fortune magazine this week how that could work.

北京已经与超过半数的TPP成员国签署了双边自由贸易协定，这些国家包括澳大利亚、新西兰、智利、秘鲁、新加坡、文莱及越南，可以通过这些协定最大程度降低或免除那些中国制造产品的进口关税。

加州大学洛杉矶分校安德森商学院的Felipe Caro 及 Christopher Tang在本周的《财富》杂志上解释了如何可以利用现有的自贸协定。

“To satisfy certain country¬-of-¬origin conditions stipulated in TPP, China can manage the supply chain operations of cotton shirts by importing cotton from Pakistan (via its existing free trade agreement with China) and conduct 'upstream' operations, such as fabric design, knitting and dyeing at home.
"Then China can ship the fabric to Vietnam (via an existing free trade agreement with China). At the same time, Japan can ship the buttons to Vietnam (via the TPP). Vietnam can perform 'downstream' operations (sewing) and then ship the finished shirts via TPP agreement to Australia, Japan and the United States, cutting off the 5%, 10.9% and 16.5% import duties that would have applied if China had dealt directly with these countries.”

“要满足TPP设定的原产国条款，中国可以这样控制棉制衬衫的供应链，先由巴基斯坦（已与中国签订了自贸协定）进口棉花，然后在国内进行“上游”加工、如面料设计、编织、染整。

然后再将织物运送到越南（已与中国签订了自贸协定），同时日本将钮扣运送到越南（通过TPP协议）。越南再进行“下游”加工（缝制），最后将成品衬衫通过TPP协议发送到澳大利亚、日本和美国，这样中国就省下了与这些国家直接贸易需要被分别征收的5%、10.9%和16.5%进口关税。

And China clearly doesn’t require the TPP to enhance its already sizeable influence in the world.
Beijing is a card-carrying member of the World Trade Organization, has a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council and is the driving force behind the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), which could potentially become a rival to theWorld Bank and Asia Development Bank once it gets going.

中国很显然并不需要TPP去增强其在全球业已规模庞大的影响力。
北京是世界贸易组织的正式成员、在联合国的安理会上拥有永久席位，是亚洲基础设施建设银行(AIIB)的主力，AIIB一旦启动以后将是世界银行和亚洲开发银行的潜在对手。

The China-led AIIB, which has the support of dozens of countries, aims to fund infrastructure projects in the region and could help Beijing buy the support of its neighbors.
China is also on track to become one of the world’s biggest overseas investors by 2020, with outbound foreign direct investment already topping $100 billion a year. In some countries, China’s investment is actually bigger than the loans they get from theInternational Monetary Fund, and that gives Beijing a lot of economic and political clout.

中国领导的亚洲基础设施建设银行拥有数十个国家的支持，着眼于为区域基础设施提供融资，将会为北京赢得其邻国的支持。
按照目前的发展速度，到2020年北京将会成为全球最大的海外投资者。其每年输出的对外直接投资已经达到了1000亿美元。对某些国家，中国的投资超过了国际货币基金组织，这些投资让北京拥有了巨大的经济和政治影响力。

On top of that China is busy negotiating its own free-trade pact with 15 countries in the Asia Pacific region and is expected to become the world's largest economy in the next decade.

在这基础上，中国目前在加紧与15个亚太国家协商中国版的自贸协定，预计将于下个十年里成为世界上最大的经济体。

“That preponderance is driven by China’s sheer size, its continued growth — which though slower than in the past is still faster than that of most other Asian economies — and its increasing centrality in global supply chains,” Arthur Kroeber, managing director of Gavekal Dragonomics and editor of China Economic Quarterly, told Foreign Policy.
Missing out on a TPP membership card won't change that.

“优势是建立在中国的庞大规模、持续的增长之上，尽管有所放缓但仍超过亚洲大多数国家的速度，以及其位于全球供应链的核心之上” 龙洲经讯总经理兼《经济学(季刊)》编辑Arthur Kroeber告诉《外交政策》。

This article originally appeared on GlobalPost. Its content was created separately to USA TODAY.
本文最早见于GlobalPost网站。内容另行整理给了《今日美国》。
Why China doesn’t mind being left out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com
为何中国不介意置身TTP之外
龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com
http://www.usatoday.com/story/ne ... rtnership/73640192/



In case you hadn’t heard, the Trans-Pacific Partnership is a really big deal — unless you're China.
The largest regional trade agreement in history involves the United States and 11 countries in the Asia Pacific and the Americas, which collectively represent about 40% of world GDP and around a quarter of global exports.
More than five years in the making, the TPP, as it is commonly referred to, was finalized on Monday, but it still needs the approval of lawmakers in member countries, including the U.S. Congress.

TPP是一件大事，不过对中国而言就不是了。
TPP是史上最大的区域贸易协定，涵括美国及十一个亚太及美洲国家，共计40%的全球GDP、大约四分之一的全球出口额。
超过5年的协商，TPP于本周一最终完成，不过仍然需要各成员国立法机构批准，包括美国议会。

Given the importance of the accord, which is designed to boost cross-border trade and investment among member countries and, ultimately, economic growth, it might seem strange that China, the world’s second largest economy and biggest trading nation on the planet, has been left out.
While a lot of the details of the deal are still secret, the TPP is clearly more than just a free trade agreement. In addition to slashing or eliminating 98% of tariffs on thousands of goods including dairy, beef, sugar, cars, tractors and chemicals, it also establishes common rules and regulations for trade and investment across member countries as well as external tribunals to sort out disputes.

鉴于协议的重要性，尤其是其推动成员国间跨境贸易与投资、最终促进经济增长的初衷，缺少中国这个世界上第二大经济体、这个星球上最大的贸易国的参与让人觉得奇怪。
尽管许多条款细节仍然是机密，TPP明显超过了一般的自贸协议。除了去除98%数以万计商品、涵括了乳制品、牛肉、糖、汽车、拖拉机及化学制品等的关税外，TPP还制定了成员国间关于贸易和投资通行的规则、法规以及解决争端的外部仲裁机构。

TPP member states will include the United States, Japan, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, Brunei, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Mexico, Chile and Peru. More countries are expected to join the exclusive trading club, but given the tough membership rules, China is not expected to sign up any time soon.
Perhaps never.

TPP成员将包括美国、日本、马来西亚、越南、新加坡、文莱、澳大利亚、新西兰、加拿大、墨西哥、智利及秘鲁。更多的国家将会加入这个排外的贸易社团，不过由于成员资格规则苛刻，中国预计将不会急着签约加入。

也可能永远不会。

Excluding China has been widely interpreted as an attempt by the United States to curtail Beijing’s growing political and economic might in the Asia Pacific region, and some experts have described it as a “terrible mistake.”
But does Beijing really care? Possibly not as much as you might think.
For starters, China doesn’t need to belong to the TPP to enjoy some of the perks that come with being a member.

排斥中国被广泛解读为美国压制北京在亚太区域不断增长的政治和经济力量，有专家称之为“可怕的错误”。

Beijing already has free trade agreements with more than half of the TPP countries, including Australia, New Zealand, Chile, Peru, Singapore, Brunei and Vietnam, and it can exploit those arrangements to minimize or avoid import duties that would normally apply to made-in-China products.
Felipe Caro and Christopher Tang of UCLA's Anderson School of Managementexplained in Fortune magazine this week how that could work.

北京已经与超过半数的TPP成员国签署了双边自由贸易协定，这些国家包括澳大利亚、新西兰、智利、秘鲁、新加坡、文莱及越南，可以通过这些协定最大程度降低或免除那些中国制造产品的进口关税。

加州大学洛杉矶分校安德森商学院的Felipe Caro 及 Christopher Tang在本周的《财富》杂志上解释了如何可以利用现有的自贸协定。

“To satisfy certain country¬-of-¬origin conditions stipulated in TPP, China can manage the supply chain operations of cotton shirts by importing cotton from Pakistan (via its existing free trade agreement with China) and conduct 'upstream' operations, such as fabric design, knitting and dyeing at home.
"Then China can ship the fabric to Vietnam (via an existing free trade agreement with China). At the same time, Japan can ship the buttons to Vietnam (via the TPP). Vietnam can perform 'downstream' operations (sewing) and then ship the finished shirts via TPP agreement to Australia, Japan and the United States, cutting off the 5%, 10.9% and 16.5% import duties that would have applied if China had dealt directly with these countries.”

“要满足TPP设定的原产国条款，中国可以这样控制棉制衬衫的供应链，先由巴基斯坦（已与中国签订了自贸协定）进口棉花，然后在国内进行“上游”加工、如面料设计、编织、染整。

然后再将织物运送到越南（已与中国签订了自贸协定），同时日本将钮扣运送到越南（通过TPP协议）。越南再进行“下游”加工（缝制），最后将成品衬衫通过TPP协议发送到澳大利亚、日本和美国，这样中国就省下了与这些国家直接贸易需要被分别征收的5%、10.9%和16.5%进口关税。

And China clearly doesn’t require the TPP to enhance its already sizeable influence in the world.
Beijing is a card-carrying member of the World Trade Organization, has a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council and is the driving force behind the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), which could potentially become a rival to theWorld Bank and Asia Development Bank once it gets going.

中国很显然并不需要TPP去增强其在全球业已规模庞大的影响力。
北京是世界贸易组织的正式成员、在联合国的安理会上拥有永久席位，是亚洲基础设施建设银行(AIIB)的主力，AIIB一旦启动以后将是世界银行和亚洲开发银行的潜在对手。

The China-led AIIB, which has the support of dozens of countries, aims to fund infrastructure projects in the region and could help Beijing buy the support of its neighbors.
China is also on track to become one of the world’s biggest overseas investors by 2020, with outbound foreign direct investment already topping $100 billion a year. In some countries, China’s investment is actually bigger than the loans they get from theInternational Monetary Fund, and that gives Beijing a lot of economic and political clout.

中国领导的亚洲基础设施建设银行拥有数十个国家的支持，着眼于为区域基础设施提供融资，将会为北京赢得其邻国的支持。
按照目前的发展速度，到2020年北京将会成为全球最大的海外投资者。其每年输出的对外直接投资已经达到了1000亿美元。对某些国家，中国的投资超过了国际货币基金组织，这些投资让北京拥有了巨大的经济和政治影响力。

On top of that China is busy negotiating its own free-trade pact with 15 countries in the Asia Pacific region and is expected to become the world's largest economy in the next decade.

在这基础上，中国目前在加紧与15个亚太国家协商中国版的自贸协定，预计将于下个十年里成为世界上最大的经济体。

“That preponderance is driven by China’s sheer size, its continued growth — which though slower than in the past is still faster than that of most other Asian economies — and its increasing centrality in global supply chains,” Arthur Kroeber, managing director of Gavekal Dragonomics and editor of China Economic Quarterly, told Foreign Policy.
Missing out on a TPP membership card won't change that.

“优势是建立在中国的庞大规模、持续的增长之上，尽管有所放缓但仍超过亚洲大多数国家的速度，以及其位于全球供应链的核心之上” 龙洲经讯总经理兼《经济学(季刊)》编辑Arthur Kroeber告诉《外交政策》。

This article originally appeared on GlobalPost. Its content was created separately to USA TODAY.
本文最早见于GlobalPost网站。内容另行整理给了《今日美国》。