泰国在与中国打交道时尝试信任

来源:百度文库 编辑:超级军网 时间:2024/04/29 06:15:20
原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com
论坛地址:http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-336312-1-1.html

Thailand Turns To A Tried And Trusted Recipe In Dealing With China

泰国在与中国打交道时尝试信任



While Sri Lanka is wondering whether or not to distance itself from China, Thailand is asking itself the same question. However, it is going about this in a much more strait forward way.

当斯里兰卡思考是否要与中国保持一定距离时,泰国也在询问自己同样的问题。

Since the Second World War, Thailand has been one of the staunchest American allies in Southeast, receiving from the US protection against communist threats to its security, along with substantial investment and development assistance. But the May 2014 coup fundamentally changed this relationship. The Obama administration has strongly demanded that Thailand quickly reinstitute democratic rule and that the military return to its barracks.

二战之后,泰国变成了美国在东南部的最坚固盟友之一,接受美国保护免受共产主义威胁,同时美国还给泰国提供大量的投资和发展援助。不过,2014年的五月政变改变了这一局面。奥巴马要求泰国尽快恢复民主统治,军队回归军营。译文来源:龙腾网 HTTP://WWW.LTAAA.COM

However, this is something Thai generals are in no hurry to do.  This has set Washington and Bangkok on a collision course, with the US freezing a $4.7 million defense loan, a key part of Thai-American defense cooperation, at the start of this month. In addition to this move, the traditional annual ‘Cobra Gold’ exercises between the Thai and US Armies were considerably scaled down this year. In response to these American actions, the ruling junta, which wants to keep control for ‘another year at least’, accused the State department of interfering in internal Thai affairs.

不过,泰国似乎对此事并不着急。这使得美国和泰国发生分歧,美国在本月初冻结了470万援助,这是美泰国防合作的一个重要部分。除此之外,美泰传统的年度军事演习今年也有大幅度缩减。为了回应美国的这一系列举动,泰国的统治军政府指控美国过分干涉泰国内部事务,他们想“至少再统治泰国一年”。

China is very acute when it comes to spotting new opportunities in foreign policy and quickly put its foot in this newly opened door.  General Chang Wanquan, Chinese Minister of Defense, went to Bangkok on February 6th to sign a home security agreement. To be sure, the document had very little real substance.  China promised to deliver “defense technology advice” and data against transnational crime, particularly against cooperation between Sino-Thai triad gangs, drug trafficking and racketeering, all of which are rife on the Mekong River. The Thai air-force announced that it would hold joint exercises with the PLA “within 2-3 years”.

中国在发现外交政策的新机会时十分敏锐,并且非常快地就插手了这一新领域。中国国防部长常万全2月6日到访泰国签署安全协议。中国承诺为泰国提供“国防技术建议”以及应对跨国犯罪的数据,特别是应对湄公河流域附近的中泰联合黑社会、贩毒、敲诈勒索等。泰国空军宣布在2-3年内与中国人民解放军进行联合演习。

But how far and how sincere is this “rapprochement”? Some very good light on this matter is being cast by the financial negotiations that have been occurring regarding big Chinese infrastructure deliveries. Not fortuitously, negotiators of the two countries have met three times in the last 10 days to try and finalize their most ambitious deal ever, the bullet train line from  Kunming (Yunnan) to Bangkok, on two routes via Chiangrai (Western leg, 878km) and Nong Khai (Eastern leg), at an estimated price tag of $10.5 billion.

不过,这一“友好”中到底有多少实质意义呢?一些大的中国基础设施供应商们已经开始了金融谈判。并非偶然地,过去十天内两国的谈判家们会面了三次,企图敲定他们充满野心的协议:从昆明到曼谷的动车线路,分为东西线,预估价格为105亿。

A Memorandum of Understanding has been signed between the two countries, but the junta is balking at China’s loan proposal. Beijing’s ExIm-bank is offering a four-year grace period, followed by a 16-year loan repayment period at an interest rate of between 2 and 4%. Bangkok, however, is threatening to self-finance the project by issuing $12.2 billion worth of bonds on its own market, so the debt would be internal with the interest revenue remaining in Thailand.

两国已经签订了谅解备忘录,但泰国的统治军政府正在拒绝中国的贷款提议。北京进出口银行提供一个四年的宽限期,给予泰国16年时间,以2-4%的利率偿还。不过,泰国威胁说要在国内发行122亿美元的债券以自筹资金,这样债务将在泰国国内实现利息收入。

Another point of contention is China’s demand, in exchange for its loan, to manage the trunk line. The junta strongly wishes to show that it can uphold its sovereignty, even on a Chinese core-project aiming at exerting the Middle Kingdom’s influence over the whole of South-East Asia. Will Thailand succeed? It is still too early to say. But whatever result, its deal with China will be a much better than one Sri Lanka has forged with Beijing. In the case of the latter, Sri Lanka seemed to have no choice other than taking what China offered and lost control over some of its most precious assets into the bargain.

另一个争论点在于中国的需求,中国提供贷款的条件之一是要管理干线。泰国军政府强烈希望证明自己可以维护国家主权,即使是中国核心项目企图使中央王国的影响力波及整个东南亚。泰国能取得胜利吗?现在下定论还为时尚早。不过无论如何,泰国与中国的协议都比斯里兰卡与北京建立的要好。在斯里兰卡与中国的合作中,斯里兰卡除了接受中国的条件别无选择,还失去了对其一些宝贵财产的控制。

By contrast, Thailand has taken a more subtle approach in negotiating with China.  Its current strategy reminds one of how the Old kingdom was able, at the end of the 19th century, to keep both Britain and France at bay as the two imperial powers tried to colonize it. How did Thailand pull off that hat trick?

相反地,泰国在与中国的协商中采取了一种更微妙的方式。泰国的方法让人想起来19世纪的古王国是如何在英法之间周旋,因为两个国家都试图征服它。泰国是如何完成这一帽子戏法的呢?

By establishing non-binding friendships with those dangerously powerful nations, sending its children to universities in Paris and London, and even offering some British and French individuals top-brass positions in its ministries. What is happening now in both the military and economic arenas of Sino-Thai relations strongly resembles this old Thai gambit for preserving national sovereignty. There is nothing new under the Asian sun!

泰国与那些危险而强大的国家建立非约束性的伙伴关系,将孩子们送到英国和法国的大学,甚至还给英国人和法国人提供一些高层部门的职位。现在中泰关系的经济和军事领域发生的事情像极了古老泰国保护国家主权的策略。亚洲日光下并无新事!原创翻译:龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com
论坛地址:http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-336312-1-1.html

Thailand Turns To A Tried And Trusted Recipe In Dealing With China

泰国在与中国打交道时尝试信任

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While Sri Lanka is wondering whether or not to distance itself from China, Thailand is asking itself the same question. However, it is going about this in a much more strait forward way.

当斯里兰卡思考是否要与中国保持一定距离时,泰国也在询问自己同样的问题。

Since the Second World War, Thailand has been one of the staunchest American allies in Southeast, receiving from the US protection against communist threats to its security, along with substantial investment and development assistance. But the May 2014 coup fundamentally changed this relationship. The Obama administration has strongly demanded that Thailand quickly reinstitute democratic rule and that the military return to its barracks.

二战之后,泰国变成了美国在东南部的最坚固盟友之一,接受美国保护免受共产主义威胁,同时美国还给泰国提供大量的投资和发展援助。不过,2014年的五月政变改变了这一局面。奥巴马要求泰国尽快恢复民主统治,军队回归军营。译文来源:龙腾网 HTTP://WWW.LTAAA.COM

However, this is something Thai generals are in no hurry to do.  This has set Washington and Bangkok on a collision course, with the US freezing a $4.7 million defense loan, a key part of Thai-American defense cooperation, at the start of this month. In addition to this move, the traditional annual ‘Cobra Gold’ exercises between the Thai and US Armies were considerably scaled down this year. In response to these American actions, the ruling junta, which wants to keep control for ‘another year at least’, accused the State department of interfering in internal Thai affairs.

不过,泰国似乎对此事并不着急。这使得美国和泰国发生分歧,美国在本月初冻结了470万援助,这是美泰国防合作的一个重要部分。除此之外,美泰传统的年度军事演习今年也有大幅度缩减。为了回应美国的这一系列举动,泰国的统治军政府指控美国过分干涉泰国内部事务,他们想“至少再统治泰国一年”。

China is very acute when it comes to spotting new opportunities in foreign policy and quickly put its foot in this newly opened door.  General Chang Wanquan, Chinese Minister of Defense, went to Bangkok on February 6th to sign a home security agreement. To be sure, the document had very little real substance.  China promised to deliver “defense technology advice” and data against transnational crime, particularly against cooperation between Sino-Thai triad gangs, drug trafficking and racketeering, all of which are rife on the Mekong River. The Thai air-force announced that it would hold joint exercises with the PLA “within 2-3 years”.

中国在发现外交政策的新机会时十分敏锐,并且非常快地就插手了这一新领域。中国国防部长常万全2月6日到访泰国签署安全协议。中国承诺为泰国提供“国防技术建议”以及应对跨国犯罪的数据,特别是应对湄公河流域附近的中泰联合黑社会、贩毒、敲诈勒索等。泰国空军宣布在2-3年内与中国人民解放军进行联合演习。

But how far and how sincere is this “rapprochement”? Some very good light on this matter is being cast by the financial negotiations that have been occurring regarding big Chinese infrastructure deliveries. Not fortuitously, negotiators of the two countries have met three times in the last 10 days to try and finalize their most ambitious deal ever, the bullet train line from  Kunming (Yunnan) to Bangkok, on two routes via Chiangrai (Western leg, 878km) and Nong Khai (Eastern leg), at an estimated price tag of $10.5 billion.

不过,这一“友好”中到底有多少实质意义呢?一些大的中国基础设施供应商们已经开始了金融谈判。并非偶然地,过去十天内两国的谈判家们会面了三次,企图敲定他们充满野心的协议:从昆明到曼谷的动车线路,分为东西线,预估价格为105亿。

A Memorandum of Understanding has been signed between the two countries, but the junta is balking at China’s loan proposal. Beijing’s ExIm-bank is offering a four-year grace period, followed by a 16-year loan repayment period at an interest rate of between 2 and 4%. Bangkok, however, is threatening to self-finance the project by issuing $12.2 billion worth of bonds on its own market, so the debt would be internal with the interest revenue remaining in Thailand.

两国已经签订了谅解备忘录,但泰国的统治军政府正在拒绝中国的贷款提议。北京进出口银行提供一个四年的宽限期,给予泰国16年时间,以2-4%的利率偿还。不过,泰国威胁说要在国内发行122亿美元的债券以自筹资金,这样债务将在泰国国内实现利息收入。

Another point of contention is China’s demand, in exchange for its loan, to manage the trunk line. The junta strongly wishes to show that it can uphold its sovereignty, even on a Chinese core-project aiming at exerting the Middle Kingdom’s influence over the whole of South-East Asia. Will Thailand succeed? It is still too early to say. But whatever result, its deal with China will be a much better than one Sri Lanka has forged with Beijing. In the case of the latter, Sri Lanka seemed to have no choice other than taking what China offered and lost control over some of its most precious assets into the bargain.

另一个争论点在于中国的需求,中国提供贷款的条件之一是要管理干线。泰国军政府强烈希望证明自己可以维护国家主权,即使是中国核心项目企图使中央王国的影响力波及整个东南亚。泰国能取得胜利吗?现在下定论还为时尚早。不过无论如何,泰国与中国的协议都比斯里兰卡与北京建立的要好。在斯里兰卡与中国的合作中,斯里兰卡除了接受中国的条件别无选择,还失去了对其一些宝贵财产的控制。

By contrast, Thailand has taken a more subtle approach in negotiating with China.  Its current strategy reminds one of how the Old kingdom was able, at the end of the 19th century, to keep both Britain and France at bay as the two imperial powers tried to colonize it. How did Thailand pull off that hat trick?

相反地,泰国在与中国的协商中采取了一种更微妙的方式。泰国的方法让人想起来19世纪的古王国是如何在英法之间周旋,因为两个国家都试图征服它。泰国是如何完成这一帽子戏法的呢?

By establishing non-binding friendships with those dangerously powerful nations, sending its children to universities in Paris and London, and even offering some British and French individuals top-brass positions in its ministries. What is happening now in both the military and economic arenas of Sino-Thai relations strongly resembles this old Thai gambit for preserving national sovereignty. There is nothing new under the Asian sun!

泰国与那些危险而强大的国家建立非约束性的伙伴关系,将孩子们送到英国和法国的大学,甚至还给英国人和法国人提供一些高层部门的职位。现在中泰关系的经济和军事领域发生的事情像极了古老泰国保护国家主权的策略。亚洲日光下并无新事!
嗯,亚洲的阳光下没有新鲜事,不知道哪有新鲜事,美洲?欧洲?
债务实现利息收入……啥意思?