超级军网ZT龙腾 CNN话题: 减速的中国比欧元区更令人忧虑？
来源：百度文库 编辑：超级军网 时间：2024/04/26 14:00:35
正文翻译
Hong Kong (CNN) – Will China’s economy have a hard landing, soft touchdown or slow ascension?
The lack of strong action Thursday from the European Central Bank on Europe’s spiraling debt crisis – coupled with similar inaction from the U.S. Federal Reserve on the slowing U.S. economy earlier this week – has ratcheted global investor stress on how China will handle its own slowdown.
欧洲中央银行本周四的软弱举措以及美联储这周早些时候类似的无所作为促使全球的投资者关注中国将如何解决他自己的经济增速放缓问题。
The question percolated throughout interviews on CNN International business shows this week.
在本周的CNN国际财经栏目里我们将主要深入讨论这个问题。
“It is quite disturbing that Brazil and India have slowed down so much, obviously there’s this huge debate going on about China’s slowdown,” Jim O’Neill, chairman of asset management for Goldman Sachs, told Richard Quest when he argued the slowdown in developing behemoths like China and the rest of the BRIC bloc is more worrisome than the eurozone crisis."
巴西和印度经济的减速非常让人困扰，很明显对于中国经济的减速存在非常大的争议，" Jim O’Neill，Goldman Sachs资产管理主席，告诉Richard Quest。他认为发展中的巨大经济体，像中国和其他金砖国家的经济减速比欧元区的经济危机更加令人不安。
Investor Mark Mobius, head of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, disagreed.
投资人Mark Mobius，TEM集团的领导者，对此并不同意。
"A lot of people ask me if China is going to have a hard or soft landing," Mobius said. "And I say they are not landing. They're continuing to grow and they're growing at a pretty fast pace."
"很多人问我中国将会发生硬着陆还是软着陆，" Mobius 说，"但是我说他们没有着陆。他们仍然在持续增长并且是以很高的速度增长。"
Still, the signs of a China slowdown are many. Inventories in factories are piling up, and companies ranging from electronics, airlines and sportswear have issued profit warnings.
尽管如此，确实有许多表明中国经济正在放缓迹象。工厂的存货增加，从电子、航空到运动服领域的一系列公司发出了盈利警报。
“While the world fixates on what the Fed and the ECB have up their collective sleeves to stem the sovereign debt contagion and to spur growth, it appears to me that the policy prescriptions might need to include China,” wrote Mike Paulenoff of MPTrader.com. “As in, how to avert a hard landing?”
“当整个世界关注着美联储和欧洲央行卷起他们的袖子遏制政府债务问题继续扩大，并且刺激经济增长的时候，我认为政策药方需要包括中国，” MPTrader.com的Mike Paulenoff写到，“中国经济应该怎样避免硬着陆？“
So, hard days ahead for China? Will its economy touch down gently, or is it likely to trampoline – with help from Beijing – like it did in the wake of the 2008-2009 financial crisis?
那么，中国的好日子到头了？它的经济将会缓慢地降落，还是有可能像2008-2009年经济危机一样，在北京的帮助下，再度迅速崛起？
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评论翻译
soundoff (73 Responses)
Peter Boh
The world will pay a hight cost for the cheap stuff from China!!!
世界将为中国的便宜货付出高昂的代价！！
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August 3, 2012 at 7:29 am |
Bruce Atkinson
The article shows one side of human nuature ,when somebody is coming down in the world ,he would like to see somebody else is worse than him to get comforted
这篇文章表现出了人类的一个天性，当某人倒霉的时候，他希望看到比他更倒霉的人，那会让他感到舒服。
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August 3, 2012 at 7:41 am |
Roger Russin
China has a small internal consumer population. They must have lots of warehouse space, so it took a while to fill those up and now weak consumer purchases around the world is causing Chinese inventory to overflow. Now, they are forced to slow their production, so earnings are down and Chinese stock prices are on a slide. The hope of increased earnings in Chinese companies depend on export trade increasing which will occur when Americans and Europeans increase their consumer spending. Unemployment must be increasing in China now.
中国国内消费人群很小。他们有很大的仓库，所以填满这些仓库需要时间，现在全世界范围内疲软的消费导致中国的存货超出了合理的范围。现在，他们被迫降低生产速度，所以收益减少了，同时中国的股票价格也持续下跌。中国公司的收入增长依赖于出口增加，而只有美国和欧洲增加消费支出时，他们的出口才能增加。现在中国的失业率必将增长。
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August 3, 2012 at 8:06 am |
SRIDHAR RAGHUNATHA RAO
In my considered opinion, the leadership responsible for economy and it's associated fields, may not be having an overall comprehensive idea for an all round sustained economic growth. Their initial economic growth is imbalanced and the policies evolved undergoes too frequent modifications which implies absence of long range vision. The widening of domestic customer affordability base, especially in BRIC countries is not given any attention. Hence, the dwindle in foreign market and the limited domestic market might have created this economic slump.
我认为负责经济的领导者以及与此相关的部门，可能不能完全理解持续的经济增长。最初的经济增长就是不均衡的，政策也经常被修改，那必然导致长期规划的缺失。增强本国消费者的购买力没有得到足够的关注，这一点在金砖国家的表现尤为明显。因此，当外国市场缩小的时候，有限的本国市场将导致经济衰退。
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August 3, 2012 at 8:06 am |
Jun Sorioso
I expect the Chinese leadership to be under a lot of pressure to window dress Chinese economic performance one way or another at least until the leadership transfer late this year. In other words conditions are probably worse than what we are allowed to see.
我认为中国领导层会采用一些方法粉饰中国经济的表现，一直到今年晚些时候的换届结束。否则，情况可能比我们看到的更糟糕。
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August 3, 2012 at 8:22 am |
Migen Bora
We must not forget that China is a dictatorship state. People there are not free (they don`t even know how freedom is like).
They are ruled by their communist government with brutality and classic dictatorship methods.
Now , China may have some economic results ,but they come from underpaid workforce and by not having the costs that Western Countries have (health care,RD etc).
It cannot hold forever , one day it will collapse (like the Soviet Union).
Just ask your self how many Chinese people would accept willingly to have only one child or a pay of few dollars, or not to have the right to travel freely (even in their country) , or not to have the right to criticize their government , etc etc.
It cannot hold on for longer.
我们不应忘记中国是一个独裁国家。生活在那里的人没有自由，他们甚至不知道自由是什么滋味。他们被他们的共XX政府以野蛮和古老的独裁方式统治着。现在中国可能取得了一些经济成就，但是这是由于低廉的劳动力和一些无需考虑的成本（这些成本西方国际需要支付，像卫生保健，研发等）。它不可能永远这么下去，有一天它将崩溃（就像苏联一样）。只需问问你自己，有多少中国人是自愿接受独生子女政策、低工资，不能自由的旅行（即便是在他们自己的国家），以及不能批评他们的政府，等等。 它不可能长期持续下去。
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August 3, 2012 at 9:08 am |
AlexM
I am just from China and I don't understand what this article is talking about. With each next visit in China (I am visiting pretty often), I see signs of growth. Chinese are getting used to spend money and this contributes to the growing domestic market, it is a new trend for them and it will take some time. Reason for the slow growth is not absence of money on hands but tradition to more save and less to spend. What many observers are missing is that most purchases are paid in full, they have no debt, instead they have good savings. Chinese economy is getting mature and as a result it can not run as fast as they do at the start point.
我刚从中国回来，我不理解这篇文章是什么意思。每一次访问中国（我经常访问中国），我都能发现增长的迹象。中国人正在变得习惯花掉他们的钱，这将有利于国内市场的增长，这对他们来说是一个新的趋势，虽然这仍然需要时间。增速放缓的原因不是没有钱，而是由于传统的多存款少花钱的观念。许多观察者没有注意到的是，大多数购买是一次付清的，他们没有债务，相反他们还有大量的储蓄。中国经济正在变得更加成熟，这是为什么它不可能像最开始那样快速地增长。
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August 3, 2012 at 9:24 am |
Saorise72
There are many problems in China besides the manufacturing and export issues. One issue is the growing amount of debt. Some cities like Wuhan are over 900 million in debt. There are the issues of illegal banking and trading in China, some of which American regulators just picked up on, google: SEC investigating Chinese companies. There was also a huge speculation on housing the past 10 years that has gotten out of hand, the gov. has tried to curb the problem but people have learned to work around the system. Take for example in mainland China you can only buy one house under your name (after the 2008 olympics) but the new leader coming in has more than one in Hong Kong. Money is leaving China, many ex-government officials and their families have also left China, taking with them some of the graft they siphoned off the tax payer here. There is also a number of accounting problems, even with recent numbers posted about GDP growth. So when the new leadership comes into office they have many challenges ahead of them. With growing discontent and food prices they better find some solutions to chill out the inflation, cut speculation, increase accounting regulations, reform the banks, get rid of illegal banking, stop government graft and etc. Much like South Korea had to do in the 90's.
除了制造业和出口之外，中国还面临许多问题。一个问题是增长的债务。一些城市，像武汉，债务金额超过9亿。在中国有一些非法的银行信贷和交易，有一些美国的管理者刚刚知道的，google：SEC investigating Chinese companies。还有过去十年大规模的房地产投机，目前已经失去了控制。政府试图做出限制，但是人们已经学会如何应对这些政策。例如在中国大陆，你只能以自己的名义买一套房子（2008年奥运会之后），但是这导致很多人进入香港（译者：这句话不通，估计是这个意思）。钱正在离开中国，许多前政府官员和他们的家庭也离开了中国，带着他们贪污的纳税人的钱。还有许多统计问题，即使是最新的GDP增长数据也是不准确的。所以当新一届领导层开始工作，他们将面临很多问题。面对增加的不满和食物价格的增长，他们最好想办法缓和通货膨胀，减少投机，使统计更加规范，改革银行，处理掉非法银行业务，阻止政府官员贪污受贿等等。就像90年代南韩做的那样。
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August 3, 2012 at 9:41 am |
srtcruz
The Chinese model actually has one very distinct advantage versus the west – central control. That model will be better at resolving a crisis since the debates and politics are kept within a smaller core.
中国模式与西方相比的确有一个非常不同的优势——中央控制。既然争议和政治斗争局限在一个更小的核心集体之中，这种模式将更能解决危机。
They will not have the same political issues as the "Debt Ceiling" political issue in the US or the current political mess in the European Union – in-short they have speed and decisiveness.
他们将不会像美国一样出现”债务最高限额“这样的政治问题，或者欧盟正在发生的那些乱七八糟的事情。总之，他们拥有速度和决断。
Can you imagine if both issues arise in a country 4 times the size of the United States? Oh right, India. 你能想象这两样麻烦事发生在一个四倍于美国的国家吗？ 哦，是的，印度。
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August 3, 2012 at 9:42 am |
Tuck
No matter how China lands, much of its economy rise is due to US's greedy for cheap labor, US's push for globalisation. US needs to fix it, they created this monster for the world to be fearful of.
无论中国如何着陆，他的很多经济增长是由于美国对廉价劳动力的贪婪，美国对全球化的推动。是美国创造出了这个令全世界害怕的怪物，美国需要解决这个问题。
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August 3, 2012 at 9:43 am |
power4things
The slowdown in the West is likely being used to stangle China. Everybody gets some damage, but it's three go down, two come back up ...
在西方，减速可能被用来中伤中国。 每个人都会得到点赔偿，但是是失去三个，得到两个。
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August 3, 2012 at 9:57 am |
chris ozman
But the big question that has not only not been answered, but never been asked by our pathetic media these days is......If just about every country in the world is broke, then WHO has the money? In other words who, ultimately, do we owe all this money to?
但是有一个最大的问题，这些天来从未被我们的可怜的媒体问过或回答过：如果世界上每一个国家都破产，那么世界卫生组织会有钱吗？换句话说，最终，我们还欠谁的钱？
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August 3, 2012 at 9:58 am |
power4things
Whoa, Tuck, just relax with the US bashing, Europe has its fair share of Chinese goods and outsourced factories, too ... besides, usually the only people who complain about "greed" are those not getting their share of it.
哇哦，Tuck，别再痛批美国了，欧洲应该对中国货和外包工厂承担他们自己的责任，此外，通常只有那些没有得到自己想要的东西的人才会抱怨别人贪婪。
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August 3, 2012 at 10:00 am |
FEH
Yes, every country has hudge debts, companies are making losses, workers are underpaid, WHERE IS THE MONEY ????????????? Growth of the Econnomy is an utopy. The resources on Earth are definitively limited.
Nothing more is created, only transformed. If somebody is making money, many others have lost money.
是的，每个国家都有巨额的债务，公司正在亏损，工人薪水很低，钱到底在哪儿？？？？ 经济的增长是虚幻的。地球上的资源肯定是有限的。没有新的东西被创造出来，只是不断的转换。如果有人正在赚钱，一定有其他许多人在亏钱。
Making war, creating destruction is creating GDP. Somebody died is creatng GDP. Yes we are in a strange world.
What the US are doing in the near East, is like crusades of the Christians, is like colonisation, is domination of others.
Human kind will not survive, if some always want to dominate others.
引发战争，造成毁灭可以创造GDP。一些人死掉也能创造GDP。是的，我们处在一个奇怪的世界。美国正在近东所做的，就像基督教的十字军东征 ，就像殖民主义，美国人正在统治其他人。如果一些人总是想统治他人，人类将会灭绝。
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August 3, 2012 at 10:14 am |
Dobrin Ivanov
In my opinion China`s biggest advantage is their huge amount of money in all currencies. And they are interested to use this currencies in order to achieve their goals. China is about to start a massive projects in corn and potatoes crops in my country – Bulgaria, part of EU. I hope my country will get a good benefits from those projects.
在我看来中国最大的优势是他们拥有的数额巨大的各种货币。而且他们有兴趣使用这些货币去达到他们的目标。中国即将在我的国家，保加利亚，欧盟的一部分，开始一些玉米和土豆等庄稼方面的大工程，我希望我的国家能够从这些工程里得到好处。
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August 3, 2012 at 10:22 am |
Kishmot
No society has yet got to grips with the impact of the technology that also includes the internet. That impact is a deep social impact, how we run our lives, how we trust each other. The problem is also one of scale. Just think of the trillions of bonds. Something is radically wrong and we need to start asking the right questions and finding answers lest the wheel becomes unsteerable.
没有一个社会懂得处理技术带来的冲击，包括因特网。这冲击是非常深的社会影响，它影响到我们如何生活，我们如何信任他人。这问题只是其中的一个例子。 想想数以万亿的证券。有些事情完全错了，我们需要开始问一些正确的问题，并且发现答案以免车轮失去控制。（译者：似乎与本主题无关，不知留言者是否发错了）
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August 3, 2012 at 10:48 am |
mbmendo
China has effectively been playing a global game of monopoly, sucking manufacturing out of the old manufacturing bases, with the effect of crippling those economies. So, how do they afford China's products? Basing economies on buying stuff demands unhappiness/ dissatisfaction on the part of the buyers. So, we are unhappy whether we can afford to buy or not. With the coming global slump from combined effects of climate change and ever growing oil prices, we will have the chance to rethink the form and function of our economies. They must remain within planetary limits and be about supporting individuals, communities and the natural systems on which we depend. Ignoring the big picture and the long term is creating our problems, and it is likely that only a collapse of our current system will give humanity the opportunity to successfully reform our behaviour and organisation.
中国通过吸收一些老的制造业基地的制造能力，已经实际上玩起了全球垄断的把戏，这造成了那些经济体的衰落。所以，他们怎么能够买得起中国制造的商品？（强迫消费者购买）把经济基础建立在购买者不愉快和不满足地购买需求之上。所以不管我们能否买得起，我们都不高兴。在气候变化和不断上升的原油价格共同造成的全球经济衰退到来之际，我们将有机会重新思考我们经济的结构和功能。他们必须保持在这星球能够接受的限度之内，并且为个人，以及我们所依赖的社团和自然体系提供支持。对全局和长期的忽视造成了我们现在的问题，也许当前体系的崩溃将是人类的一个机会，让我们能够成功地改革我们的行为模式和组织结构。
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August 3, 2012 at 11:17 am |
Mustafa
Every economy which is based on comodities will always survive any economic down turn, becuase they r manufacturing products which are widely consumes all around the world, sometimes at a high demand and sometimes low, like China. Unlike other economies which are only based on financial modeling and maintaining numbers which do not even exist in real time. USA boomed in the past for their innovative products and went down after getting fat and slugish in maintaining that innovation. USA and GB is never getting back up cus they do not have anything to sell, which the world might need, well nto really for USA cus they are good at creating the demand for their weapons (if you know aht i mean). So as long as there are wars around the world, USA will do fine, but for other European countries, they need to simply start manufacturing.
建立在商品之上的经济体将能一直幸免于经济下降，因为他们生产的产品被全世界消费，即便有时需求多一些，有时需求少一些，就像中国这样的经济。不像其他其他一些经济，他们建立在金融模型和维持的数字之上，这些东西在真实的世界里并不存在。美国曾经因为他们创新的产品而迅速发展，但是当他们变得臃肿并且无法维持创新的时候，就开始下滑了。美国和英国将不会重新站起来，因为他们没有任何这个世界需要的东西可以出售，当然这对美国而言不够确切，因为他们非常善于创造对他们的武器的需求（你知道我的意思）。所以只要世界上有战争，美国就可以过的不错，但是对其他的欧洲国家，他们必须开始制造产品。
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August 3, 2012 at 11:25 am |
Dani Yuliadi
http://www.bali-prefab.com
August 3, 2012 at 11:32 am |
China is evil
China is evil, China is evil... I've repeated this in my head for 100 times already. So please CNN I've done my brainwash quota for the day. Could you give me something else to digest?
中国是邪恶的，中国是邪恶的。。。。我已经把这句话在我的脑子里重复了100次。所以，CNN, 我已经完成了我今天的洗脑配额。你们能给我一些其他可以下咽的东西吗？
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August 3, 2012 at 11:52 am |
Tharindu Ameresekere (Senior CIMA Lecturer from Sri Lanka)
China's growth has been largely dependent on main cities such as Beijing and Shanghai. there is vast potential in second tier cities such as Dalian and Wuhan which the govt must move in quick to harness. There by the stress on the only 4 First tier citiies Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen can be reduced enabling a moee organic growth.
中国的增长极大地依赖于主要的城市，例如北京和上海。一些二线城市也有非常大的潜力，像大连和武汉，政府必须尽快加强这些城市的治理。这样，对仅有的四个一线城市，北京、上海、广州和深圳的压力就会减轻，同时可能引发良好的组织内增长。
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August 3, 2012 at 12:41 pm |
Huaqiao
To "China is evil" – I think the devil dwells within your own head and that is why you so evilly and maliciously keep on repeating "China is evil" until you become so crazy.
回复“China is evil” ： 我认为有魔鬼居住在你的脑袋里，这是为什么你这么邪恶而充满敌意地重复“中国是邪恶的”，以至于你变得如此疯狂。
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August 3, 2012 at 1:12 pm |
Richard
China's manufacturing growth that has slowed down to 50.1 in July compared to 50.2 in June will pick up again in August and reach 50.3 ....is my guess....http://www.guessn.com/guessn/chi ... ugust-and-reach-503
中国的制造业增速已从6月的50.2减慢到7月的50.1，并且将会在8月重新达到50.3. 我猜。
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August 3, 2012 at 2:13 pm |
thislittlepiggywentweeweewee
Whole world economy crash. 整个世界的经济都破产了
Go boom. 伴随着轰隆声
We fall in sinkhole.我们掉进臭水沟
Entombed.被埋葬。
（译者：这哥们在写诗）
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August 3, 2012 at 2:31 pm |
simple simon
Intelligent analysis of the situation isn't worth anything. You can't bring a dead dog back to life. The dog has been kept on life support for a very long time. Now the dog is dead, but no one seems to realize it and everyone just keeps kicking the dog. When a dog dies, the fleas are screwed.
对情况的聪明分析也是一文不值。你不可能让一只死狗活过来。这狗已经依赖生命维持系统很久了。现在它死了，但是没有任何人意识到这一点，他们只是不断地踢它。 狗死了，跳蚤就跳出来了。
Huaqiao, you missed the sarcasm. huaqiao，你没有理解上文的讽刺。
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August 3, 2012 at 2:38 pm |
go for broke
Let's see...the world's gone broke, but we have no shortage of billionaires, and multimillionaires by the millions.
瞧瞧，世界破产了，但是我们还有这么多的亿万富翁，数百万的大富豪。
HMMMMMM. 嗯~~
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August 3, 2012 at 2:53 pm |
Wailun Ng
Mobius is right – China is still growing, albeit at a slower rate. There's no hard or soft landing that westerners are accustomed to. The real hard landing will come in the next decade when the grow is no longer sustainable.. China's growth for the past 20 years is fueled by government land sales, high taxes and massive infrastructure spending. this can be sustained for another 10 – 15 years but after that, reaility will sink in. don't forget, China's economy was miniscule when the current boom started in 1993, unlike other countries which had been growing steadily since the end of WW2. thus, China's current economic boom is mainly due to compressing 60 years (since 1950) into 20 years (1993 to 2012). i've been in China for almost 20 years so i see things differently
Mobius是对的——中国经济仍然在增长，尽管慢了一点儿。将不会有西方人习惯的硬着陆或软着陆。真正的硬着陆将发生在下一个十年里，当增长再也不能持续的时候。中国过去20年的增长源于政府出售土地，高额的税收和大量的基础设施开销，这将可以再维持10-15年，但是在那之后，真实的情况将显现出来。不要忘记，中国经济在1993年开始的快速增长之前是很弱小的，不像其他国家从二次世界大战之后就开始稳定增长。因此中国当前的经济繁荣主要是由于将60年（从1950）的经济增长压缩在了20年（1993-2012）里。我在中国呆了几乎20年，所以我看到了事情的另一面。
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August 3, 2012 at 3:38 pm |
Wayan Chan
China has almost hit the "bottom" of its current cycle. I expect a BIG bounce from early next year onwards so would buying in now as prices are extremely cheap.
中国几乎已经达到本轮经济周期的底部， 我预期明年初将开始大反弹，所以现在建议你们买进，因为现在的价格真的超级便宜。 （译者：这人炒股票的吧？？）
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August 3, 2012 at 4:10 pm |
major tom
Mr. Ameresekere, how can you exclude Chongqing from a list of China's first tier cities? I don't think you know your facts. Ameresekere先生，你怎么能把重庆排出在中国的一线城市之外？ 我不认为你理解你所陈述的内容。（译者：回复上文的斯里兰卡讲师）
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August 3, 2012 at 5:18 pm |
Godfather Al Pacino
Deng Xiaoping – a period of economic growth 邓小平时期——经济增长
Jiang Zeming – a period of economic growth江泽民时期——经济增长
Hu Jintao – a period of economic growthhu时期——经济增长
The next President to be – do you think he will let China into a period of economic recession ? And let his name be tainted in history ? Think about it.
下一个主席会怎么样？你认为他会让中国经历一段经济衰退？从而让他的名字成为历史上的污点？
I bet the next man in power will continue to lead China into continual prosperity and good economic progress.
我打赌下一个主席将继续领导中国走向持续的繁荣和巨大的经济进步。
That's 100% for sure. 这是100%确定的。
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August 3, 2012 at 5:21 pm |
Bushdiver
I think China will be just fine. Eat your hearts out US and EU.
我认为中国将会没事。。。。
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August 3, 2012 at 8:44 pm |
zy130
China's economy will be affected by many factors, some of them are no just economic or financial issues
中国的经济可能被许多因素影响，并不仅仅是经济和金融因素。
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August 3, 2012 at 11:26 pm |
Cherish
That means money is moving different places other than china, money does not like uncertainties. China does not float RMB, we are probably going to see china as another Greece, not Euro Only
那意味着财富正在流动到其他的地方而不是不是中国，金钱不喜欢不确定性。中国不允许人民币自由浮动，我们可能将看到中国变成另一个希腊，不仅仅是欧元
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http://www.ltaaa.cn/bbs/thread-79443-1-1.html正文翻译
Hong Kong (CNN) – Will China’s economy have a hard landing, soft touchdown or slow ascension?
The lack of strong action Thursday from the European Central Bank on Europe’s spiraling debt crisis – coupled with similar inaction from the U.S. Federal Reserve on the slowing U.S. economy earlier this week – has ratcheted global investor stress on how China will handle its own slowdown.
欧洲中央银行本周四的软弱举措以及美联储这周早些时候类似的无所作为促使全球的投资者关注中国将如何解决他自己的经济增速放缓问题。
The question percolated throughout interviews on CNN International business shows this week.
在本周的CNN国际财经栏目里我们将主要深入讨论这个问题。
“It is quite disturbing that Brazil and India have slowed down so much, obviously there’s this huge debate going on about China’s slowdown,” Jim O’Neill, chairman of asset management for Goldman Sachs, told Richard Quest when he argued the slowdown in developing behemoths like China and the rest of the BRIC bloc is more worrisome than the eurozone crisis."
巴西和印度经济的减速非常让人困扰，很明显对于中国经济的减速存在非常大的争议，" Jim O’Neill，Goldman Sachs资产管理主席，告诉Richard Quest。他认为发展中的巨大经济体，像中国和其他金砖国家的经济减速比欧元区的经济危机更加令人不安。
Investor Mark Mobius, head of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, disagreed.
投资人Mark Mobius，TEM集团的领导者，对此并不同意。
"A lot of people ask me if China is going to have a hard or soft landing," Mobius said. "And I say they are not landing. They're continuing to grow and they're growing at a pretty fast pace."
"很多人问我中国将会发生硬着陆还是软着陆，" Mobius 说，"但是我说他们没有着陆。他们仍然在持续增长并且是以很高的速度增长。"
Still, the signs of a China slowdown are many. Inventories in factories are piling up, and companies ranging from electronics, airlines and sportswear have issued profit warnings.
尽管如此，确实有许多表明中国经济正在放缓迹象。工厂的存货增加，从电子、航空到运动服领域的一系列公司发出了盈利警报。
“While the world fixates on what the Fed and the ECB have up their collective sleeves to stem the sovereign debt contagion and to spur growth, it appears to me that the policy prescriptions might need to include China,” wrote Mike Paulenoff of MPTrader.com. “As in, how to avert a hard landing?”
“当整个世界关注着美联储和欧洲央行卷起他们的袖子遏制政府债务问题继续扩大，并且刺激经济增长的时候，我认为政策药方需要包括中国，” MPTrader.com的Mike Paulenoff写到，“中国经济应该怎样避免硬着陆？“
So, hard days ahead for China? Will its economy touch down gently, or is it likely to trampoline – with help from Beijing – like it did in the wake of the 2008-2009 financial crisis?
那么，中国的好日子到头了？它的经济将会缓慢地降落，还是有可能像2008-2009年经济危机一样，在北京的帮助下，再度迅速崛起？
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评论翻译
soundoff (73 Responses)
Peter Boh
The world will pay a hight cost for the cheap stuff from China!!!
世界将为中国的便宜货付出高昂的代价！！
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August 3, 2012 at 7:29 am |
Bruce Atkinson
The article shows one side of human nuature ,when somebody is coming down in the world ,he would like to see somebody else is worse than him to get comforted
这篇文章表现出了人类的一个天性，当某人倒霉的时候，他希望看到比他更倒霉的人，那会让他感到舒服。
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August 3, 2012 at 7:41 am |
Roger Russin
China has a small internal consumer population. They must have lots of warehouse space, so it took a while to fill those up and now weak consumer purchases around the world is causing Chinese inventory to overflow. Now, they are forced to slow their production, so earnings are down and Chinese stock prices are on a slide. The hope of increased earnings in Chinese companies depend on export trade increasing which will occur when Americans and Europeans increase their consumer spending. Unemployment must be increasing in China now.
中国国内消费人群很小。他们有很大的仓库，所以填满这些仓库需要时间，现在全世界范围内疲软的消费导致中国的存货超出了合理的范围。现在，他们被迫降低生产速度，所以收益减少了，同时中国的股票价格也持续下跌。中国公司的收入增长依赖于出口增加，而只有美国和欧洲增加消费支出时，他们的出口才能增加。现在中国的失业率必将增长。
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August 3, 2012 at 8:06 am |
SRIDHAR RAGHUNATHA RAO
In my considered opinion, the leadership responsible for economy and it's associated fields, may not be having an overall comprehensive idea for an all round sustained economic growth. Their initial economic growth is imbalanced and the policies evolved undergoes too frequent modifications which implies absence of long range vision. The widening of domestic customer affordability base, especially in BRIC countries is not given any attention. Hence, the dwindle in foreign market and the limited domestic market might have created this economic slump.
我认为负责经济的领导者以及与此相关的部门，可能不能完全理解持续的经济增长。最初的经济增长就是不均衡的，政策也经常被修改，那必然导致长期规划的缺失。增强本国消费者的购买力没有得到足够的关注，这一点在金砖国家的表现尤为明显。因此，当外国市场缩小的时候，有限的本国市场将导致经济衰退。
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August 3, 2012 at 8:06 am |
Jun Sorioso
I expect the Chinese leadership to be under a lot of pressure to window dress Chinese economic performance one way or another at least until the leadership transfer late this year. In other words conditions are probably worse than what we are allowed to see.
我认为中国领导层会采用一些方法粉饰中国经济的表现，一直到今年晚些时候的换届结束。否则，情况可能比我们看到的更糟糕。
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August 3, 2012 at 8:22 am |
Migen Bora
We must not forget that China is a dictatorship state. People there are not free (they don`t even know how freedom is like).
They are ruled by their communist government with brutality and classic dictatorship methods.
Now , China may have some economic results ,but they come from underpaid workforce and by not having the costs that Western Countries have (health care,RD etc).
It cannot hold forever , one day it will collapse (like the Soviet Union).
Just ask your self how many Chinese people would accept willingly to have only one child or a pay of few dollars, or not to have the right to travel freely (even in their country) , or not to have the right to criticize their government , etc etc.
It cannot hold on for longer.
我们不应忘记中国是一个独裁国家。生活在那里的人没有自由，他们甚至不知道自由是什么滋味。他们被他们的共XX政府以野蛮和古老的独裁方式统治着。现在中国可能取得了一些经济成就，但是这是由于低廉的劳动力和一些无需考虑的成本（这些成本西方国际需要支付，像卫生保健，研发等）。它不可能永远这么下去，有一天它将崩溃（就像苏联一样）。只需问问你自己，有多少中国人是自愿接受独生子女政策、低工资，不能自由的旅行（即便是在他们自己的国家），以及不能批评他们的政府，等等。 它不可能长期持续下去。
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August 3, 2012 at 9:08 am |
AlexM
I am just from China and I don't understand what this article is talking about. With each next visit in China (I am visiting pretty often), I see signs of growth. Chinese are getting used to spend money and this contributes to the growing domestic market, it is a new trend for them and it will take some time. Reason for the slow growth is not absence of money on hands but tradition to more save and less to spend. What many observers are missing is that most purchases are paid in full, they have no debt, instead they have good savings. Chinese economy is getting mature and as a result it can not run as fast as they do at the start point.
我刚从中国回来，我不理解这篇文章是什么意思。每一次访问中国（我经常访问中国），我都能发现增长的迹象。中国人正在变得习惯花掉他们的钱，这将有利于国内市场的增长，这对他们来说是一个新的趋势，虽然这仍然需要时间。增速放缓的原因不是没有钱，而是由于传统的多存款少花钱的观念。许多观察者没有注意到的是，大多数购买是一次付清的，他们没有债务，相反他们还有大量的储蓄。中国经济正在变得更加成熟，这是为什么它不可能像最开始那样快速地增长。
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August 3, 2012 at 9:24 am |
Saorise72
There are many problems in China besides the manufacturing and export issues. One issue is the growing amount of debt. Some cities like Wuhan are over 900 million in debt. There are the issues of illegal banking and trading in China, some of which American regulators just picked up on, google: SEC investigating Chinese companies. There was also a huge speculation on housing the past 10 years that has gotten out of hand, the gov. has tried to curb the problem but people have learned to work around the system. Take for example in mainland China you can only buy one house under your name (after the 2008 olympics) but the new leader coming in has more than one in Hong Kong. Money is leaving China, many ex-government officials and their families have also left China, taking with them some of the graft they siphoned off the tax payer here. There is also a number of accounting problems, even with recent numbers posted about GDP growth. So when the new leadership comes into office they have many challenges ahead of them. With growing discontent and food prices they better find some solutions to chill out the inflation, cut speculation, increase accounting regulations, reform the banks, get rid of illegal banking, stop government graft and etc. Much like South Korea had to do in the 90's.
除了制造业和出口之外，中国还面临许多问题。一个问题是增长的债务。一些城市，像武汉，债务金额超过9亿。在中国有一些非法的银行信贷和交易，有一些美国的管理者刚刚知道的，google：SEC investigating Chinese companies。还有过去十年大规模的房地产投机，目前已经失去了控制。政府试图做出限制，但是人们已经学会如何应对这些政策。例如在中国大陆，你只能以自己的名义买一套房子（2008年奥运会之后），但是这导致很多人进入香港（译者：这句话不通，估计是这个意思）。钱正在离开中国，许多前政府官员和他们的家庭也离开了中国，带着他们贪污的纳税人的钱。还有许多统计问题，即使是最新的GDP增长数据也是不准确的。所以当新一届领导层开始工作，他们将面临很多问题。面对增加的不满和食物价格的增长，他们最好想办法缓和通货膨胀，减少投机，使统计更加规范，改革银行，处理掉非法银行业务，阻止政府官员贪污受贿等等。就像90年代南韩做的那样。
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August 3, 2012 at 9:41 am |
srtcruz
The Chinese model actually has one very distinct advantage versus the west – central control. That model will be better at resolving a crisis since the debates and politics are kept within a smaller core.
中国模式与西方相比的确有一个非常不同的优势——中央控制。既然争议和政治斗争局限在一个更小的核心集体之中，这种模式将更能解决危机。
They will not have the same political issues as the "Debt Ceiling" political issue in the US or the current political mess in the European Union – in-short they have speed and decisiveness.
他们将不会像美国一样出现”债务最高限额“这样的政治问题，或者欧盟正在发生的那些乱七八糟的事情。总之，他们拥有速度和决断。
Can you imagine if both issues arise in a country 4 times the size of the United States? Oh right, India. 你能想象这两样麻烦事发生在一个四倍于美国的国家吗？ 哦，是的，印度。
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August 3, 2012 at 9:42 am |
Tuck
No matter how China lands, much of its economy rise is due to US's greedy for cheap labor, US's push for globalisation. US needs to fix it, they created this monster for the world to be fearful of.
无论中国如何着陆，他的很多经济增长是由于美国对廉价劳动力的贪婪，美国对全球化的推动。是美国创造出了这个令全世界害怕的怪物，美国需要解决这个问题。
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August 3, 2012 at 9:43 am |
power4things
The slowdown in the West is likely being used to stangle China. Everybody gets some damage, but it's three go down, two come back up ...
在西方，减速可能被用来中伤中国。 每个人都会得到点赔偿，但是是失去三个，得到两个。
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August 3, 2012 at 9:57 am |
chris ozman
But the big question that has not only not been answered, but never been asked by our pathetic media these days is......If just about every country in the world is broke, then WHO has the money? In other words who, ultimately, do we owe all this money to?
但是有一个最大的问题，这些天来从未被我们的可怜的媒体问过或回答过：如果世界上每一个国家都破产，那么世界卫生组织会有钱吗？换句话说，最终，我们还欠谁的钱？
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August 3, 2012 at 9:58 am |
power4things
Whoa, Tuck, just relax with the US bashing, Europe has its fair share of Chinese goods and outsourced factories, too ... besides, usually the only people who complain about "greed" are those not getting their share of it.
哇哦，Tuck，别再痛批美国了，欧洲应该对中国货和外包工厂承担他们自己的责任，此外，通常只有那些没有得到自己想要的东西的人才会抱怨别人贪婪。
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August 3, 2012 at 10:00 am |
FEH
Yes, every country has hudge debts, companies are making losses, workers are underpaid, WHERE IS THE MONEY ????????????? Growth of the Econnomy is an utopy. The resources on Earth are definitively limited.
Nothing more is created, only transformed. If somebody is making money, many others have lost money.
是的，每个国家都有巨额的债务，公司正在亏损，工人薪水很低，钱到底在哪儿？？？？ 经济的增长是虚幻的。地球上的资源肯定是有限的。没有新的东西被创造出来，只是不断的转换。如果有人正在赚钱，一定有其他许多人在亏钱。
Making war, creating destruction is creating GDP. Somebody died is creatng GDP. Yes we are in a strange world.
What the US are doing in the near East, is like crusades of the Christians, is like colonisation, is domination of others.
Human kind will not survive, if some always want to dominate others.
引发战争，造成毁灭可以创造GDP。一些人死掉也能创造GDP。是的，我们处在一个奇怪的世界。美国正在近东所做的，就像基督教的十字军东征 ，就像殖民主义，美国人正在统治其他人。如果一些人总是想统治他人，人类将会灭绝。
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August 3, 2012 at 10:14 am |
Dobrin Ivanov
In my opinion China`s biggest advantage is their huge amount of money in all currencies. And they are interested to use this currencies in order to achieve their goals. China is about to start a massive projects in corn and potatoes crops in my country – Bulgaria, part of EU. I hope my country will get a good benefits from those projects.
在我看来中国最大的优势是他们拥有的数额巨大的各种货币。而且他们有兴趣使用这些货币去达到他们的目标。中国即将在我的国家，保加利亚，欧盟的一部分，开始一些玉米和土豆等庄稼方面的大工程，我希望我的国家能够从这些工程里得到好处。
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August 3, 2012 at 10:22 am |
Kishmot
No society has yet got to grips with the impact of the technology that also includes the internet. That impact is a deep social impact, how we run our lives, how we trust each other. The problem is also one of scale. Just think of the trillions of bonds. Something is radically wrong and we need to start asking the right questions and finding answers lest the wheel becomes unsteerable.
没有一个社会懂得处理技术带来的冲击，包括因特网。这冲击是非常深的社会影响，它影响到我们如何生活，我们如何信任他人。这问题只是其中的一个例子。 想想数以万亿的证券。有些事情完全错了，我们需要开始问一些正确的问题，并且发现答案以免车轮失去控制。（译者：似乎与本主题无关，不知留言者是否发错了）
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August 3, 2012 at 10:48 am |
mbmendo
China has effectively been playing a global game of monopoly, sucking manufacturing out of the old manufacturing bases, with the effect of crippling those economies. So, how do they afford China's products? Basing economies on buying stuff demands unhappiness/ dissatisfaction on the part of the buyers. So, we are unhappy whether we can afford to buy or not. With the coming global slump from combined effects of climate change and ever growing oil prices, we will have the chance to rethink the form and function of our economies. They must remain within planetary limits and be about supporting individuals, communities and the natural systems on which we depend. Ignoring the big picture and the long term is creating our problems, and it is likely that only a collapse of our current system will give humanity the opportunity to successfully reform our behaviour and organisation.
中国通过吸收一些老的制造业基地的制造能力，已经实际上玩起了全球垄断的把戏，这造成了那些经济体的衰落。所以，他们怎么能够买得起中国制造的商品？（强迫消费者购买）把经济基础建立在购买者不愉快和不满足地购买需求之上。所以不管我们能否买得起，我们都不高兴。在气候变化和不断上升的原油价格共同造成的全球经济衰退到来之际，我们将有机会重新思考我们经济的结构和功能。他们必须保持在这星球能够接受的限度之内，并且为个人，以及我们所依赖的社团和自然体系提供支持。对全局和长期的忽视造成了我们现在的问题，也许当前体系的崩溃将是人类的一个机会，让我们能够成功地改革我们的行为模式和组织结构。
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August 3, 2012 at 11:17 am |
Mustafa
Every economy which is based on comodities will always survive any economic down turn, becuase they r manufacturing products which are widely consumes all around the world, sometimes at a high demand and sometimes low, like China. Unlike other economies which are only based on financial modeling and maintaining numbers which do not even exist in real time. USA boomed in the past for their innovative products and went down after getting fat and slugish in maintaining that innovation. USA and GB is never getting back up cus they do not have anything to sell, which the world might need, well nto really for USA cus they are good at creating the demand for their weapons (if you know aht i mean). So as long as there are wars around the world, USA will do fine, but for other European countries, they need to simply start manufacturing.
建立在商品之上的经济体将能一直幸免于经济下降，因为他们生产的产品被全世界消费，即便有时需求多一些，有时需求少一些，就像中国这样的经济。不像其他其他一些经济，他们建立在金融模型和维持的数字之上，这些东西在真实的世界里并不存在。美国曾经因为他们创新的产品而迅速发展，但是当他们变得臃肿并且无法维持创新的时候，就开始下滑了。美国和英国将不会重新站起来，因为他们没有任何这个世界需要的东西可以出售，当然这对美国而言不够确切，因为他们非常善于创造对他们的武器的需求（你知道我的意思）。所以只要世界上有战争，美国就可以过的不错，但是对其他的欧洲国家，他们必须开始制造产品。
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August 3, 2012 at 11:25 am |
Dani Yuliadi
http://www.bali-prefab.com
August 3, 2012 at 11:32 am |
China is evil
China is evil, China is evil... I've repeated this in my head for 100 times already. So please CNN I've done my brainwash quota for the day. Could you give me something else to digest?
中国是邪恶的，中国是邪恶的。。。。我已经把这句话在我的脑子里重复了100次。所以，CNN, 我已经完成了我今天的洗脑配额。你们能给我一些其他可以下咽的东西吗？
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August 3, 2012 at 11:52 am |
Tharindu Ameresekere (Senior CIMA Lecturer from Sri Lanka)
China's growth has been largely dependent on main cities such as Beijing and Shanghai. there is vast potential in second tier cities such as Dalian and Wuhan which the govt must move in quick to harness. There by the stress on the only 4 First tier citiies Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen can be reduced enabling a moee organic growth.
中国的增长极大地依赖于主要的城市，例如北京和上海。一些二线城市也有非常大的潜力，像大连和武汉，政府必须尽快加强这些城市的治理。这样，对仅有的四个一线城市，北京、上海、广州和深圳的压力就会减轻，同时可能引发良好的组织内增长。
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August 3, 2012 at 12:41 pm |
Huaqiao
To "China is evil" – I think the devil dwells within your own head and that is why you so evilly and maliciously keep on repeating "China is evil" until you become so crazy.
回复“China is evil” ： 我认为有魔鬼居住在你的脑袋里，这是为什么你这么邪恶而充满敌意地重复“中国是邪恶的”，以至于你变得如此疯狂。
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August 3, 2012 at 1:12 pm |
Richard
China's manufacturing growth that has slowed down to 50.1 in July compared to 50.2 in June will pick up again in August and reach 50.3 ....is my guess....http://www.guessn.com/guessn/chi ... ugust-and-reach-503
中国的制造业增速已从6月的50.2减慢到7月的50.1，并且将会在8月重新达到50.3. 我猜。
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August 3, 2012 at 2:13 pm |
thislittlepiggywentweeweewee
Whole world economy crash. 整个世界的经济都破产了
Go boom. 伴随着轰隆声
We fall in sinkhole.我们掉进臭水沟
Entombed.被埋葬。
（译者：这哥们在写诗）
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August 3, 2012 at 2:31 pm |
simple simon
Intelligent analysis of the situation isn't worth anything. You can't bring a dead dog back to life. The dog has been kept on life support for a very long time. Now the dog is dead, but no one seems to realize it and everyone just keeps kicking the dog. When a dog dies, the fleas are screwed.
对情况的聪明分析也是一文不值。你不可能让一只死狗活过来。这狗已经依赖生命维持系统很久了。现在它死了，但是没有任何人意识到这一点，他们只是不断地踢它。 狗死了，跳蚤就跳出来了。
Huaqiao, you missed the sarcasm. huaqiao，你没有理解上文的讽刺。
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August 3, 2012 at 2:38 pm |
go for broke
Let's see...the world's gone broke, but we have no shortage of billionaires, and multimillionaires by the millions.
瞧瞧，世界破产了，但是我们还有这么多的亿万富翁，数百万的大富豪。
HMMMMMM. 嗯~~
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August 3, 2012 at 2:53 pm |
Wailun Ng
Mobius is right – China is still growing, albeit at a slower rate. There's no hard or soft landing that westerners are accustomed to. The real hard landing will come in the next decade when the grow is no longer sustainable.. China's growth for the past 20 years is fueled by government land sales, high taxes and massive infrastructure spending. this can be sustained for another 10 – 15 years but after that, reaility will sink in. don't forget, China's economy was miniscule when the current boom started in 1993, unlike other countries which had been growing steadily since the end of WW2. thus, China's current economic boom is mainly due to compressing 60 years (since 1950) into 20 years (1993 to 2012). i've been in China for almost 20 years so i see things differently
Mobius是对的——中国经济仍然在增长，尽管慢了一点儿。将不会有西方人习惯的硬着陆或软着陆。真正的硬着陆将发生在下一个十年里，当增长再也不能持续的时候。中国过去20年的增长源于政府出售土地，高额的税收和大量的基础设施开销，这将可以再维持10-15年，但是在那之后，真实的情况将显现出来。不要忘记，中国经济在1993年开始的快速增长之前是很弱小的，不像其他国家从二次世界大战之后就开始稳定增长。因此中国当前的经济繁荣主要是由于将60年（从1950）的经济增长压缩在了20年（1993-2012）里。我在中国呆了几乎20年，所以我看到了事情的另一面。
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August 3, 2012 at 3:38 pm |
Wayan Chan
China has almost hit the "bottom" of its current cycle. I expect a BIG bounce from early next year onwards so would buying in now as prices are extremely cheap.
中国几乎已经达到本轮经济周期的底部， 我预期明年初将开始大反弹，所以现在建议你们买进，因为现在的价格真的超级便宜。 （译者：这人炒股票的吧？？）
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August 3, 2012 at 4:10 pm |
major tom
Mr. Ameresekere, how can you exclude Chongqing from a list of China's first tier cities? I don't think you know your facts. Ameresekere先生，你怎么能把重庆排出在中国的一线城市之外？ 我不认为你理解你所陈述的内容。（译者：回复上文的斯里兰卡讲师）
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August 3, 2012 at 5:18 pm |
Godfather Al Pacino
Deng Xiaoping – a period of economic growth 邓小平时期——经济增长
Jiang Zeming – a period of economic growth江泽民时期——经济增长
Hu Jintao – a period of economic growthhu时期——经济增长
The next President to be – do you think he will let China into a period of economic recession ? And let his name be tainted in history ? Think about it.
下一个主席会怎么样？你认为他会让中国经历一段经济衰退？从而让他的名字成为历史上的污点？
I bet the next man in power will continue to lead China into continual prosperity and good economic progress.
我打赌下一个主席将继续领导中国走向持续的繁荣和巨大的经济进步。
That's 100% for sure. 这是100%确定的。
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August 3, 2012 at 5:21 pm |
Bushdiver
I think China will be just fine. Eat your hearts out US and EU.
我认为中国将会没事。。。。
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August 3, 2012 at 8:44 pm |
zy130
China's economy will be affected by many factors, some of them are no just economic or financial issues
中国的经济可能被许多因素影响，并不仅仅是经济和金融因素。
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August 3, 2012 at 11:26 pm |
Cherish
That means money is moving different places other than china, money does not like uncertainties. China does not float RMB, we are probably going to see china as another Greece, not Euro Only
那意味着财富正在流动到其他的地方而不是不是中国，金钱不喜欢不确定性。中国不允许人民币自由浮动，我们可能将看到中国变成另一个希腊，不仅仅是欧元
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http://www.ltaaa.cn/bbs/thread-79443-1-1.html
Hong Kong (CNN) – Will China’s economy have a hard landing, soft touchdown or slow ascension?
The lack of strong action Thursday from the European Central Bank on Europe’s spiraling debt crisis – coupled with similar inaction from the U.S. Federal Reserve on the slowing U.S. economy earlier this week – has ratcheted global investor stress on how China will handle its own slowdown.
欧洲中央银行本周四的软弱举措以及美联储这周早些时候类似的无所作为促使全球的投资者关注中国将如何解决他自己的经济增速放缓问题。
The question percolated throughout interviews on CNN International business shows this week.
在本周的CNN国际财经栏目里我们将主要深入讨论这个问题。
“It is quite disturbing that Brazil and India have slowed down so much, obviously there’s this huge debate going on about China’s slowdown,” Jim O’Neill, chairman of asset management for Goldman Sachs, told Richard Quest when he argued the slowdown in developing behemoths like China and the rest of the BRIC bloc is more worrisome than the eurozone crisis."
巴西和印度经济的减速非常让人困扰，很明显对于中国经济的减速存在非常大的争议，" Jim O’Neill，Goldman Sachs资产管理主席，告诉Richard Quest。他认为发展中的巨大经济体，像中国和其他金砖国家的经济减速比欧元区的经济危机更加令人不安。
Investor Mark Mobius, head of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, disagreed.
投资人Mark Mobius，TEM集团的领导者，对此并不同意。
"A lot of people ask me if China is going to have a hard or soft landing," Mobius said. "And I say they are not landing. They're continuing to grow and they're growing at a pretty fast pace."
"很多人问我中国将会发生硬着陆还是软着陆，" Mobius 说，"但是我说他们没有着陆。他们仍然在持续增长并且是以很高的速度增长。"
Still, the signs of a China slowdown are many. Inventories in factories are piling up, and companies ranging from electronics, airlines and sportswear have issued profit warnings.
尽管如此，确实有许多表明中国经济正在放缓迹象。工厂的存货增加，从电子、航空到运动服领域的一系列公司发出了盈利警报。
“While the world fixates on what the Fed and the ECB have up their collective sleeves to stem the sovereign debt contagion and to spur growth, it appears to me that the policy prescriptions might need to include China,” wrote Mike Paulenoff of MPTrader.com. “As in, how to avert a hard landing?”
“当整个世界关注着美联储和欧洲央行卷起他们的袖子遏制政府债务问题继续扩大，并且刺激经济增长的时候，我认为政策药方需要包括中国，” MPTrader.com的Mike Paulenoff写到，“中国经济应该怎样避免硬着陆？“
So, hard days ahead for China? Will its economy touch down gently, or is it likely to trampoline – with help from Beijing – like it did in the wake of the 2008-2009 financial crisis?
那么，中国的好日子到头了？它的经济将会缓慢地降落，还是有可能像2008-2009年经济危机一样，在北京的帮助下，再度迅速崛起？
============================华丽的分割线==========================
评论翻译
soundoff (73 Responses)
Peter Boh
The world will pay a hight cost for the cheap stuff from China!!!
世界将为中国的便宜货付出高昂的代价！！
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August 3, 2012 at 7:29 am |
Bruce Atkinson
The article shows one side of human nuature ,when somebody is coming down in the world ,he would like to see somebody else is worse than him to get comforted
这篇文章表现出了人类的一个天性，当某人倒霉的时候，他希望看到比他更倒霉的人，那会让他感到舒服。
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August 3, 2012 at 7:41 am |
Roger Russin
China has a small internal consumer population. They must have lots of warehouse space, so it took a while to fill those up and now weak consumer purchases around the world is causing Chinese inventory to overflow. Now, they are forced to slow their production, so earnings are down and Chinese stock prices are on a slide. The hope of increased earnings in Chinese companies depend on export trade increasing which will occur when Americans and Europeans increase their consumer spending. Unemployment must be increasing in China now.
中国国内消费人群很小。他们有很大的仓库，所以填满这些仓库需要时间，现在全世界范围内疲软的消费导致中国的存货超出了合理的范围。现在，他们被迫降低生产速度，所以收益减少了，同时中国的股票价格也持续下跌。中国公司的收入增长依赖于出口增加，而只有美国和欧洲增加消费支出时，他们的出口才能增加。现在中国的失业率必将增长。
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August 3, 2012 at 8:06 am |
SRIDHAR RAGHUNATHA RAO
In my considered opinion, the leadership responsible for economy and it's associated fields, may not be having an overall comprehensive idea for an all round sustained economic growth. Their initial economic growth is imbalanced and the policies evolved undergoes too frequent modifications which implies absence of long range vision. The widening of domestic customer affordability base, especially in BRIC countries is not given any attention. Hence, the dwindle in foreign market and the limited domestic market might have created this economic slump.
我认为负责经济的领导者以及与此相关的部门，可能不能完全理解持续的经济增长。最初的经济增长就是不均衡的，政策也经常被修改，那必然导致长期规划的缺失。增强本国消费者的购买力没有得到足够的关注，这一点在金砖国家的表现尤为明显。因此，当外国市场缩小的时候，有限的本国市场将导致经济衰退。
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August 3, 2012 at 8:06 am |
Jun Sorioso
I expect the Chinese leadership to be under a lot of pressure to window dress Chinese economic performance one way or another at least until the leadership transfer late this year. In other words conditions are probably worse than what we are allowed to see.
我认为中国领导层会采用一些方法粉饰中国经济的表现，一直到今年晚些时候的换届结束。否则，情况可能比我们看到的更糟糕。
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August 3, 2012 at 8:22 am |
Migen Bora
We must not forget that China is a dictatorship state. People there are not free (they don`t even know how freedom is like).
They are ruled by their communist government with brutality and classic dictatorship methods.
Now , China may have some economic results ,but they come from underpaid workforce and by not having the costs that Western Countries have (health care,RD etc).
It cannot hold forever , one day it will collapse (like the Soviet Union).
Just ask your self how many Chinese people would accept willingly to have only one child or a pay of few dollars, or not to have the right to travel freely (even in their country) , or not to have the right to criticize their government , etc etc.
It cannot hold on for longer.
我们不应忘记中国是一个独裁国家。生活在那里的人没有自由，他们甚至不知道自由是什么滋味。他们被他们的共XX政府以野蛮和古老的独裁方式统治着。现在中国可能取得了一些经济成就，但是这是由于低廉的劳动力和一些无需考虑的成本（这些成本西方国际需要支付，像卫生保健，研发等）。它不可能永远这么下去，有一天它将崩溃（就像苏联一样）。只需问问你自己，有多少中国人是自愿接受独生子女政策、低工资，不能自由的旅行（即便是在他们自己的国家），以及不能批评他们的政府，等等。 它不可能长期持续下去。
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August 3, 2012 at 9:08 am |
AlexM
I am just from China and I don't understand what this article is talking about. With each next visit in China (I am visiting pretty often), I see signs of growth. Chinese are getting used to spend money and this contributes to the growing domestic market, it is a new trend for them and it will take some time. Reason for the slow growth is not absence of money on hands but tradition to more save and less to spend. What many observers are missing is that most purchases are paid in full, they have no debt, instead they have good savings. Chinese economy is getting mature and as a result it can not run as fast as they do at the start point.
我刚从中国回来，我不理解这篇文章是什么意思。每一次访问中国（我经常访问中国），我都能发现增长的迹象。中国人正在变得习惯花掉他们的钱，这将有利于国内市场的增长，这对他们来说是一个新的趋势，虽然这仍然需要时间。增速放缓的原因不是没有钱，而是由于传统的多存款少花钱的观念。许多观察者没有注意到的是，大多数购买是一次付清的，他们没有债务，相反他们还有大量的储蓄。中国经济正在变得更加成熟，这是为什么它不可能像最开始那样快速地增长。
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August 3, 2012 at 9:24 am |
Saorise72
There are many problems in China besides the manufacturing and export issues. One issue is the growing amount of debt. Some cities like Wuhan are over 900 million in debt. There are the issues of illegal banking and trading in China, some of which American regulators just picked up on, google: SEC investigating Chinese companies. There was also a huge speculation on housing the past 10 years that has gotten out of hand, the gov. has tried to curb the problem but people have learned to work around the system. Take for example in mainland China you can only buy one house under your name (after the 2008 olympics) but the new leader coming in has more than one in Hong Kong. Money is leaving China, many ex-government officials and their families have also left China, taking with them some of the graft they siphoned off the tax payer here. There is also a number of accounting problems, even with recent numbers posted about GDP growth. So when the new leadership comes into office they have many challenges ahead of them. With growing discontent and food prices they better find some solutions to chill out the inflation, cut speculation, increase accounting regulations, reform the banks, get rid of illegal banking, stop government graft and etc. Much like South Korea had to do in the 90's.
除了制造业和出口之外，中国还面临许多问题。一个问题是增长的债务。一些城市，像武汉，债务金额超过9亿。在中国有一些非法的银行信贷和交易，有一些美国的管理者刚刚知道的，google：SEC investigating Chinese companies。还有过去十年大规模的房地产投机，目前已经失去了控制。政府试图做出限制，但是人们已经学会如何应对这些政策。例如在中国大陆，你只能以自己的名义买一套房子（2008年奥运会之后），但是这导致很多人进入香港（译者：这句话不通，估计是这个意思）。钱正在离开中国，许多前政府官员和他们的家庭也离开了中国，带着他们贪污的纳税人的钱。还有许多统计问题，即使是最新的GDP增长数据也是不准确的。所以当新一届领导层开始工作，他们将面临很多问题。面对增加的不满和食物价格的增长，他们最好想办法缓和通货膨胀，减少投机，使统计更加规范，改革银行，处理掉非法银行业务，阻止政府官员贪污受贿等等。就像90年代南韩做的那样。
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August 3, 2012 at 9:41 am |
srtcruz
The Chinese model actually has one very distinct advantage versus the west – central control. That model will be better at resolving a crisis since the debates and politics are kept within a smaller core.
中国模式与西方相比的确有一个非常不同的优势——中央控制。既然争议和政治斗争局限在一个更小的核心集体之中，这种模式将更能解决危机。
They will not have the same political issues as the "Debt Ceiling" political issue in the US or the current political mess in the European Union – in-short they have speed and decisiveness.
他们将不会像美国一样出现”债务最高限额“这样的政治问题，或者欧盟正在发生的那些乱七八糟的事情。总之，他们拥有速度和决断。
Can you imagine if both issues arise in a country 4 times the size of the United States? Oh right, India. 你能想象这两样麻烦事发生在一个四倍于美国的国家吗？ 哦，是的，印度。
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August 3, 2012 at 9:42 am |
Tuck
No matter how China lands, much of its economy rise is due to US's greedy for cheap labor, US's push for globalisation. US needs to fix it, they created this monster for the world to be fearful of.
无论中国如何着陆，他的很多经济增长是由于美国对廉价劳动力的贪婪，美国对全球化的推动。是美国创造出了这个令全世界害怕的怪物，美国需要解决这个问题。
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August 3, 2012 at 9:43 am |
power4things
The slowdown in the West is likely being used to stangle China. Everybody gets some damage, but it's three go down, two come back up ...
在西方，减速可能被用来中伤中国。 每个人都会得到点赔偿，但是是失去三个，得到两个。
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August 3, 2012 at 9:57 am |
chris ozman
But the big question that has not only not been answered, but never been asked by our pathetic media these days is......If just about every country in the world is broke, then WHO has the money? In other words who, ultimately, do we owe all this money to?
但是有一个最大的问题，这些天来从未被我们的可怜的媒体问过或回答过：如果世界上每一个国家都破产，那么世界卫生组织会有钱吗？换句话说，最终，我们还欠谁的钱？
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August 3, 2012 at 9:58 am |
power4things
Whoa, Tuck, just relax with the US bashing, Europe has its fair share of Chinese goods and outsourced factories, too ... besides, usually the only people who complain about "greed" are those not getting their share of it.
哇哦，Tuck，别再痛批美国了，欧洲应该对中国货和外包工厂承担他们自己的责任，此外，通常只有那些没有得到自己想要的东西的人才会抱怨别人贪婪。
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August 3, 2012 at 10:00 am |
FEH
Yes, every country has hudge debts, companies are making losses, workers are underpaid, WHERE IS THE MONEY ????????????? Growth of the Econnomy is an utopy. The resources on Earth are definitively limited.
Nothing more is created, only transformed. If somebody is making money, many others have lost money.
是的，每个国家都有巨额的债务，公司正在亏损，工人薪水很低，钱到底在哪儿？？？？ 经济的增长是虚幻的。地球上的资源肯定是有限的。没有新的东西被创造出来，只是不断的转换。如果有人正在赚钱，一定有其他许多人在亏钱。
Making war, creating destruction is creating GDP. Somebody died is creatng GDP. Yes we are in a strange world.
What the US are doing in the near East, is like crusades of the Christians, is like colonisation, is domination of others.
Human kind will not survive, if some always want to dominate others.
引发战争，造成毁灭可以创造GDP。一些人死掉也能创造GDP。是的，我们处在一个奇怪的世界。美国正在近东所做的，就像基督教的十字军东征 ，就像殖民主义，美国人正在统治其他人。如果一些人总是想统治他人，人类将会灭绝。
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August 3, 2012 at 10:14 am |
Dobrin Ivanov
In my opinion China`s biggest advantage is their huge amount of money in all currencies. And they are interested to use this currencies in order to achieve their goals. China is about to start a massive projects in corn and potatoes crops in my country – Bulgaria, part of EU. I hope my country will get a good benefits from those projects.
在我看来中国最大的优势是他们拥有的数额巨大的各种货币。而且他们有兴趣使用这些货币去达到他们的目标。中国即将在我的国家，保加利亚，欧盟的一部分，开始一些玉米和土豆等庄稼方面的大工程，我希望我的国家能够从这些工程里得到好处。
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August 3, 2012 at 10:22 am |
Kishmot
No society has yet got to grips with the impact of the technology that also includes the internet. That impact is a deep social impact, how we run our lives, how we trust each other. The problem is also one of scale. Just think of the trillions of bonds. Something is radically wrong and we need to start asking the right questions and finding answers lest the wheel becomes unsteerable.
没有一个社会懂得处理技术带来的冲击，包括因特网。这冲击是非常深的社会影响，它影响到我们如何生活，我们如何信任他人。这问题只是其中的一个例子。 想想数以万亿的证券。有些事情完全错了，我们需要开始问一些正确的问题，并且发现答案以免车轮失去控制。（译者：似乎与本主题无关，不知留言者是否发错了）
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August 3, 2012 at 10:48 am |
mbmendo
China has effectively been playing a global game of monopoly, sucking manufacturing out of the old manufacturing bases, with the effect of crippling those economies. So, how do they afford China's products? Basing economies on buying stuff demands unhappiness/ dissatisfaction on the part of the buyers. So, we are unhappy whether we can afford to buy or not. With the coming global slump from combined effects of climate change and ever growing oil prices, we will have the chance to rethink the form and function of our economies. They must remain within planetary limits and be about supporting individuals, communities and the natural systems on which we depend. Ignoring the big picture and the long term is creating our problems, and it is likely that only a collapse of our current system will give humanity the opportunity to successfully reform our behaviour and organisation.
中国通过吸收一些老的制造业基地的制造能力，已经实际上玩起了全球垄断的把戏，这造成了那些经济体的衰落。所以，他们怎么能够买得起中国制造的商品？（强迫消费者购买）把经济基础建立在购买者不愉快和不满足地购买需求之上。所以不管我们能否买得起，我们都不高兴。在气候变化和不断上升的原油价格共同造成的全球经济衰退到来之际，我们将有机会重新思考我们经济的结构和功能。他们必须保持在这星球能够接受的限度之内，并且为个人，以及我们所依赖的社团和自然体系提供支持。对全局和长期的忽视造成了我们现在的问题，也许当前体系的崩溃将是人类的一个机会，让我们能够成功地改革我们的行为模式和组织结构。
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August 3, 2012 at 11:17 am |
Mustafa
Every economy which is based on comodities will always survive any economic down turn, becuase they r manufacturing products which are widely consumes all around the world, sometimes at a high demand and sometimes low, like China. Unlike other economies which are only based on financial modeling and maintaining numbers which do not even exist in real time. USA boomed in the past for their innovative products and went down after getting fat and slugish in maintaining that innovation. USA and GB is never getting back up cus they do not have anything to sell, which the world might need, well nto really for USA cus they are good at creating the demand for their weapons (if you know aht i mean). So as long as there are wars around the world, USA will do fine, but for other European countries, they need to simply start manufacturing.
建立在商品之上的经济体将能一直幸免于经济下降，因为他们生产的产品被全世界消费，即便有时需求多一些，有时需求少一些，就像中国这样的经济。不像其他其他一些经济，他们建立在金融模型和维持的数字之上，这些东西在真实的世界里并不存在。美国曾经因为他们创新的产品而迅速发展，但是当他们变得臃肿并且无法维持创新的时候，就开始下滑了。美国和英国将不会重新站起来，因为他们没有任何这个世界需要的东西可以出售，当然这对美国而言不够确切，因为他们非常善于创造对他们的武器的需求（你知道我的意思）。所以只要世界上有战争，美国就可以过的不错，但是对其他的欧洲国家，他们必须开始制造产品。
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August 3, 2012 at 11:25 am |
Dani Yuliadi
http://www.bali-prefab.com
August 3, 2012 at 11:32 am |
China is evil
China is evil, China is evil... I've repeated this in my head for 100 times already. So please CNN I've done my brainwash quota for the day. Could you give me something else to digest?
中国是邪恶的，中国是邪恶的。。。。我已经把这句话在我的脑子里重复了100次。所以，CNN, 我已经完成了我今天的洗脑配额。你们能给我一些其他可以下咽的东西吗？
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August 3, 2012 at 11:52 am |
Tharindu Ameresekere (Senior CIMA Lecturer from Sri Lanka)
China's growth has been largely dependent on main cities such as Beijing and Shanghai. there is vast potential in second tier cities such as Dalian and Wuhan which the govt must move in quick to harness. There by the stress on the only 4 First tier citiies Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen can be reduced enabling a moee organic growth.
中国的增长极大地依赖于主要的城市，例如北京和上海。一些二线城市也有非常大的潜力，像大连和武汉，政府必须尽快加强这些城市的治理。这样，对仅有的四个一线城市，北京、上海、广州和深圳的压力就会减轻，同时可能引发良好的组织内增长。
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August 3, 2012 at 12:41 pm |
Huaqiao
To "China is evil" – I think the devil dwells within your own head and that is why you so evilly and maliciously keep on repeating "China is evil" until you become so crazy.
回复“China is evil” ： 我认为有魔鬼居住在你的脑袋里，这是为什么你这么邪恶而充满敌意地重复“中国是邪恶的”，以至于你变得如此疯狂。
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August 3, 2012 at 1:12 pm |
Richard
China's manufacturing growth that has slowed down to 50.1 in July compared to 50.2 in June will pick up again in August and reach 50.3 ....is my guess....http://www.guessn.com/guessn/chi ... ugust-and-reach-503
中国的制造业增速已从6月的50.2减慢到7月的50.1，并且将会在8月重新达到50.3. 我猜。
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August 3, 2012 at 2:13 pm |
thislittlepiggywentweeweewee
Whole world economy crash. 整个世界的经济都破产了
Go boom. 伴随着轰隆声
We fall in sinkhole.我们掉进臭水沟
Entombed.被埋葬。
（译者：这哥们在写诗）
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August 3, 2012 at 2:31 pm |
simple simon
Intelligent analysis of the situation isn't worth anything. You can't bring a dead dog back to life. The dog has been kept on life support for a very long time. Now the dog is dead, but no one seems to realize it and everyone just keeps kicking the dog. When a dog dies, the fleas are screwed.
对情况的聪明分析也是一文不值。你不可能让一只死狗活过来。这狗已经依赖生命维持系统很久了。现在它死了，但是没有任何人意识到这一点，他们只是不断地踢它。 狗死了，跳蚤就跳出来了。
Huaqiao, you missed the sarcasm. huaqiao，你没有理解上文的讽刺。
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August 3, 2012 at 2:38 pm |
go for broke
Let's see...the world's gone broke, but we have no shortage of billionaires, and multimillionaires by the millions.
瞧瞧，世界破产了，但是我们还有这么多的亿万富翁，数百万的大富豪。
HMMMMMM. 嗯~~
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August 3, 2012 at 2:53 pm |
Wailun Ng
Mobius is right – China is still growing, albeit at a slower rate. There's no hard or soft landing that westerners are accustomed to. The real hard landing will come in the next decade when the grow is no longer sustainable.. China's growth for the past 20 years is fueled by government land sales, high taxes and massive infrastructure spending. this can be sustained for another 10 – 15 years but after that, reaility will sink in. don't forget, China's economy was miniscule when the current boom started in 1993, unlike other countries which had been growing steadily since the end of WW2. thus, China's current economic boom is mainly due to compressing 60 years (since 1950) into 20 years (1993 to 2012). i've been in China for almost 20 years so i see things differently
Mobius是对的——中国经济仍然在增长，尽管慢了一点儿。将不会有西方人习惯的硬着陆或软着陆。真正的硬着陆将发生在下一个十年里，当增长再也不能持续的时候。中国过去20年的增长源于政府出售土地，高额的税收和大量的基础设施开销，这将可以再维持10-15年，但是在那之后，真实的情况将显现出来。不要忘记，中国经济在1993年开始的快速增长之前是很弱小的，不像其他国家从二次世界大战之后就开始稳定增长。因此中国当前的经济繁荣主要是由于将60年（从1950）的经济增长压缩在了20年（1993-2012）里。我在中国呆了几乎20年，所以我看到了事情的另一面。
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August 3, 2012 at 3:38 pm |
Wayan Chan
China has almost hit the "bottom" of its current cycle. I expect a BIG bounce from early next year onwards so would buying in now as prices are extremely cheap.
中国几乎已经达到本轮经济周期的底部， 我预期明年初将开始大反弹，所以现在建议你们买进，因为现在的价格真的超级便宜。 （译者：这人炒股票的吧？？）
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August 3, 2012 at 4:10 pm |
major tom
Mr. Ameresekere, how can you exclude Chongqing from a list of China's first tier cities? I don't think you know your facts. Ameresekere先生，你怎么能把重庆排出在中国的一线城市之外？ 我不认为你理解你所陈述的内容。（译者：回复上文的斯里兰卡讲师）
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August 3, 2012 at 5:18 pm |
Godfather Al Pacino
Deng Xiaoping – a period of economic growth 邓小平时期——经济增长
Jiang Zeming – a period of economic growth江泽民时期——经济增长
Hu Jintao – a period of economic growthhu时期——经济增长
The next President to be – do you think he will let China into a period of economic recession ? And let his name be tainted in history ? Think about it.
下一个主席会怎么样？你认为他会让中国经历一段经济衰退？从而让他的名字成为历史上的污点？
I bet the next man in power will continue to lead China into continual prosperity and good economic progress.
我打赌下一个主席将继续领导中国走向持续的繁荣和巨大的经济进步。
That's 100% for sure. 这是100%确定的。
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August 3, 2012 at 5:21 pm |
Bushdiver
I think China will be just fine. Eat your hearts out US and EU.
我认为中国将会没事。。。。
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August 3, 2012 at 8:44 pm |
zy130
China's economy will be affected by many factors, some of them are no just economic or financial issues
中国的经济可能被许多因素影响，并不仅仅是经济和金融因素。
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August 3, 2012 at 11:26 pm |
Cherish
That means money is moving different places other than china, money does not like uncertainties. China does not float RMB, we are probably going to see china as another Greece, not Euro Only
那意味着财富正在流动到其他的地方而不是不是中国，金钱不喜欢不确定性。中国不允许人民币自由浮动，我们可能将看到中国变成另一个希腊，不仅仅是欧元
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http://www.ltaaa.cn/bbs/thread-79443-1-1.html正文翻译
Hong Kong (CNN) – Will China’s economy have a hard landing, soft touchdown or slow ascension?
The lack of strong action Thursday from the European Central Bank on Europe’s spiraling debt crisis – coupled with similar inaction from the U.S. Federal Reserve on the slowing U.S. economy earlier this week – has ratcheted global investor stress on how China will handle its own slowdown.
欧洲中央银行本周四的软弱举措以及美联储这周早些时候类似的无所作为促使全球的投资者关注中国将如何解决他自己的经济增速放缓问题。
The question percolated throughout interviews on CNN International business shows this week.
在本周的CNN国际财经栏目里我们将主要深入讨论这个问题。
“It is quite disturbing that Brazil and India have slowed down so much, obviously there’s this huge debate going on about China’s slowdown,” Jim O’Neill, chairman of asset management for Goldman Sachs, told Richard Quest when he argued the slowdown in developing behemoths like China and the rest of the BRIC bloc is more worrisome than the eurozone crisis."
巴西和印度经济的减速非常让人困扰，很明显对于中国经济的减速存在非常大的争议，" Jim O’Neill，Goldman Sachs资产管理主席，告诉Richard Quest。他认为发展中的巨大经济体，像中国和其他金砖国家的经济减速比欧元区的经济危机更加令人不安。
Investor Mark Mobius, head of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, disagreed.
投资人Mark Mobius，TEM集团的领导者，对此并不同意。
"A lot of people ask me if China is going to have a hard or soft landing," Mobius said. "And I say they are not landing. They're continuing to grow and they're growing at a pretty fast pace."
"很多人问我中国将会发生硬着陆还是软着陆，" Mobius 说，"但是我说他们没有着陆。他们仍然在持续增长并且是以很高的速度增长。"
Still, the signs of a China slowdown are many. Inventories in factories are piling up, and companies ranging from electronics, airlines and sportswear have issued profit warnings.
尽管如此，确实有许多表明中国经济正在放缓迹象。工厂的存货增加，从电子、航空到运动服领域的一系列公司发出了盈利警报。
“While the world fixates on what the Fed and the ECB have up their collective sleeves to stem the sovereign debt contagion and to spur growth, it appears to me that the policy prescriptions might need to include China,” wrote Mike Paulenoff of MPTrader.com. “As in, how to avert a hard landing?”
“当整个世界关注着美联储和欧洲央行卷起他们的袖子遏制政府债务问题继续扩大，并且刺激经济增长的时候，我认为政策药方需要包括中国，” MPTrader.com的Mike Paulenoff写到，“中国经济应该怎样避免硬着陆？“
So, hard days ahead for China? Will its economy touch down gently, or is it likely to trampoline – with help from Beijing – like it did in the wake of the 2008-2009 financial crisis?
那么，中国的好日子到头了？它的经济将会缓慢地降落，还是有可能像2008-2009年经济危机一样，在北京的帮助下，再度迅速崛起？
============================华丽的分割线==========================
评论翻译
soundoff (73 Responses)
Peter Boh
The world will pay a hight cost for the cheap stuff from China!!!
世界将为中国的便宜货付出高昂的代价！！
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August 3, 2012 at 7:29 am |
Bruce Atkinson
The article shows one side of human nuature ,when somebody is coming down in the world ,he would like to see somebody else is worse than him to get comforted
这篇文章表现出了人类的一个天性，当某人倒霉的时候，他希望看到比他更倒霉的人，那会让他感到舒服。
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August 3, 2012 at 7:41 am |
Roger Russin
China has a small internal consumer population. They must have lots of warehouse space, so it took a while to fill those up and now weak consumer purchases around the world is causing Chinese inventory to overflow. Now, they are forced to slow their production, so earnings are down and Chinese stock prices are on a slide. The hope of increased earnings in Chinese companies depend on export trade increasing which will occur when Americans and Europeans increase their consumer spending. Unemployment must be increasing in China now.
中国国内消费人群很小。他们有很大的仓库，所以填满这些仓库需要时间，现在全世界范围内疲软的消费导致中国的存货超出了合理的范围。现在，他们被迫降低生产速度，所以收益减少了，同时中国的股票价格也持续下跌。中国公司的收入增长依赖于出口增加，而只有美国和欧洲增加消费支出时，他们的出口才能增加。现在中国的失业率必将增长。
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August 3, 2012 at 8:06 am |
SRIDHAR RAGHUNATHA RAO
In my considered opinion, the leadership responsible for economy and it's associated fields, may not be having an overall comprehensive idea for an all round sustained economic growth. Their initial economic growth is imbalanced and the policies evolved undergoes too frequent modifications which implies absence of long range vision. The widening of domestic customer affordability base, especially in BRIC countries is not given any attention. Hence, the dwindle in foreign market and the limited domestic market might have created this economic slump.
我认为负责经济的领导者以及与此相关的部门，可能不能完全理解持续的经济增长。最初的经济增长就是不均衡的，政策也经常被修改，那必然导致长期规划的缺失。增强本国消费者的购买力没有得到足够的关注，这一点在金砖国家的表现尤为明显。因此，当外国市场缩小的时候，有限的本国市场将导致经济衰退。
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August 3, 2012 at 8:06 am |
Jun Sorioso
I expect the Chinese leadership to be under a lot of pressure to window dress Chinese economic performance one way or another at least until the leadership transfer late this year. In other words conditions are probably worse than what we are allowed to see.
我认为中国领导层会采用一些方法粉饰中国经济的表现，一直到今年晚些时候的换届结束。否则，情况可能比我们看到的更糟糕。
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August 3, 2012 at 8:22 am |
Migen Bora
We must not forget that China is a dictatorship state. People there are not free (they don`t even know how freedom is like).
They are ruled by their communist government with brutality and classic dictatorship methods.
Now , China may have some economic results ,but they come from underpaid workforce and by not having the costs that Western Countries have (health care,RD etc).
It cannot hold forever , one day it will collapse (like the Soviet Union).
Just ask your self how many Chinese people would accept willingly to have only one child or a pay of few dollars, or not to have the right to travel freely (even in their country) , or not to have the right to criticize their government , etc etc.
It cannot hold on for longer.
我们不应忘记中国是一个独裁国家。生活在那里的人没有自由，他们甚至不知道自由是什么滋味。他们被他们的共XX政府以野蛮和古老的独裁方式统治着。现在中国可能取得了一些经济成就，但是这是由于低廉的劳动力和一些无需考虑的成本（这些成本西方国际需要支付，像卫生保健，研发等）。它不可能永远这么下去，有一天它将崩溃（就像苏联一样）。只需问问你自己，有多少中国人是自愿接受独生子女政策、低工资，不能自由的旅行（即便是在他们自己的国家），以及不能批评他们的政府，等等。 它不可能长期持续下去。
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August 3, 2012 at 9:08 am |
AlexM
I am just from China and I don't understand what this article is talking about. With each next visit in China (I am visiting pretty often), I see signs of growth. Chinese are getting used to spend money and this contributes to the growing domestic market, it is a new trend for them and it will take some time. Reason for the slow growth is not absence of money on hands but tradition to more save and less to spend. What many observers are missing is that most purchases are paid in full, they have no debt, instead they have good savings. Chinese economy is getting mature and as a result it can not run as fast as they do at the start point.
我刚从中国回来，我不理解这篇文章是什么意思。每一次访问中国（我经常访问中国），我都能发现增长的迹象。中国人正在变得习惯花掉他们的钱，这将有利于国内市场的增长，这对他们来说是一个新的趋势，虽然这仍然需要时间。增速放缓的原因不是没有钱，而是由于传统的多存款少花钱的观念。许多观察者没有注意到的是，大多数购买是一次付清的，他们没有债务，相反他们还有大量的储蓄。中国经济正在变得更加成熟，这是为什么它不可能像最开始那样快速地增长。
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August 3, 2012 at 9:24 am |
Saorise72
There are many problems in China besides the manufacturing and export issues. One issue is the growing amount of debt. Some cities like Wuhan are over 900 million in debt. There are the issues of illegal banking and trading in China, some of which American regulators just picked up on, google: SEC investigating Chinese companies. There was also a huge speculation on housing the past 10 years that has gotten out of hand, the gov. has tried to curb the problem but people have learned to work around the system. Take for example in mainland China you can only buy one house under your name (after the 2008 olympics) but the new leader coming in has more than one in Hong Kong. Money is leaving China, many ex-government officials and their families have also left China, taking with them some of the graft they siphoned off the tax payer here. There is also a number of accounting problems, even with recent numbers posted about GDP growth. So when the new leadership comes into office they have many challenges ahead of them. With growing discontent and food prices they better find some solutions to chill out the inflation, cut speculation, increase accounting regulations, reform the banks, get rid of illegal banking, stop government graft and etc. Much like South Korea had to do in the 90's.
除了制造业和出口之外，中国还面临许多问题。一个问题是增长的债务。一些城市，像武汉，债务金额超过9亿。在中国有一些非法的银行信贷和交易，有一些美国的管理者刚刚知道的，google：SEC investigating Chinese companies。还有过去十年大规模的房地产投机，目前已经失去了控制。政府试图做出限制，但是人们已经学会如何应对这些政策。例如在中国大陆，你只能以自己的名义买一套房子（2008年奥运会之后），但是这导致很多人进入香港（译者：这句话不通，估计是这个意思）。钱正在离开中国，许多前政府官员和他们的家庭也离开了中国，带着他们贪污的纳税人的钱。还有许多统计问题，即使是最新的GDP增长数据也是不准确的。所以当新一届领导层开始工作，他们将面临很多问题。面对增加的不满和食物价格的增长，他们最好想办法缓和通货膨胀，减少投机，使统计更加规范，改革银行，处理掉非法银行业务，阻止政府官员贪污受贿等等。就像90年代南韩做的那样。
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August 3, 2012 at 9:41 am |
srtcruz
The Chinese model actually has one very distinct advantage versus the west – central control. That model will be better at resolving a crisis since the debates and politics are kept within a smaller core.
中国模式与西方相比的确有一个非常不同的优势——中央控制。既然争议和政治斗争局限在一个更小的核心集体之中，这种模式将更能解决危机。
They will not have the same political issues as the "Debt Ceiling" political issue in the US or the current political mess in the European Union – in-short they have speed and decisiveness.
他们将不会像美国一样出现”债务最高限额“这样的政治问题，或者欧盟正在发生的那些乱七八糟的事情。总之，他们拥有速度和决断。
Can you imagine if both issues arise in a country 4 times the size of the United States? Oh right, India. 你能想象这两样麻烦事发生在一个四倍于美国的国家吗？ 哦，是的，印度。
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August 3, 2012 at 9:42 am |
Tuck
No matter how China lands, much of its economy rise is due to US's greedy for cheap labor, US's push for globalisation. US needs to fix it, they created this monster for the world to be fearful of.
无论中国如何着陆，他的很多经济增长是由于美国对廉价劳动力的贪婪，美国对全球化的推动。是美国创造出了这个令全世界害怕的怪物，美国需要解决这个问题。
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August 3, 2012 at 9:43 am |
power4things
The slowdown in the West is likely being used to stangle China. Everybody gets some damage, but it's three go down, two come back up ...
在西方，减速可能被用来中伤中国。 每个人都会得到点赔偿，但是是失去三个，得到两个。
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August 3, 2012 at 9:57 am |
chris ozman
But the big question that has not only not been answered, but never been asked by our pathetic media these days is......If just about every country in the world is broke, then WHO has the money? In other words who, ultimately, do we owe all this money to?
但是有一个最大的问题，这些天来从未被我们的可怜的媒体问过或回答过：如果世界上每一个国家都破产，那么世界卫生组织会有钱吗？换句话说，最终，我们还欠谁的钱？
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August 3, 2012 at 9:58 am |
power4things
Whoa, Tuck, just relax with the US bashing, Europe has its fair share of Chinese goods and outsourced factories, too ... besides, usually the only people who complain about "greed" are those not getting their share of it.
哇哦，Tuck，别再痛批美国了，欧洲应该对中国货和外包工厂承担他们自己的责任，此外，通常只有那些没有得到自己想要的东西的人才会抱怨别人贪婪。
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August 3, 2012 at 10:00 am |
FEH
Yes, every country has hudge debts, companies are making losses, workers are underpaid, WHERE IS THE MONEY ????????????? Growth of the Econnomy is an utopy. The resources on Earth are definitively limited.
Nothing more is created, only transformed. If somebody is making money, many others have lost money.
是的，每个国家都有巨额的债务，公司正在亏损，工人薪水很低，钱到底在哪儿？？？？ 经济的增长是虚幻的。地球上的资源肯定是有限的。没有新的东西被创造出来，只是不断的转换。如果有人正在赚钱，一定有其他许多人在亏钱。
Making war, creating destruction is creating GDP. Somebody died is creatng GDP. Yes we are in a strange world.
What the US are doing in the near East, is like crusades of the Christians, is like colonisation, is domination of others.
Human kind will not survive, if some always want to dominate others.
引发战争，造成毁灭可以创造GDP。一些人死掉也能创造GDP。是的，我们处在一个奇怪的世界。美国正在近东所做的，就像基督教的十字军东征 ，就像殖民主义，美国人正在统治其他人。如果一些人总是想统治他人，人类将会灭绝。
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August 3, 2012 at 10:14 am |
Dobrin Ivanov
In my opinion China`s biggest advantage is their huge amount of money in all currencies. And they are interested to use this currencies in order to achieve their goals. China is about to start a massive projects in corn and potatoes crops in my country – Bulgaria, part of EU. I hope my country will get a good benefits from those projects.
在我看来中国最大的优势是他们拥有的数额巨大的各种货币。而且他们有兴趣使用这些货币去达到他们的目标。中国即将在我的国家，保加利亚，欧盟的一部分，开始一些玉米和土豆等庄稼方面的大工程，我希望我的国家能够从这些工程里得到好处。
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August 3, 2012 at 10:22 am |
Kishmot
No society has yet got to grips with the impact of the technology that also includes the internet. That impact is a deep social impact, how we run our lives, how we trust each other. The problem is also one of scale. Just think of the trillions of bonds. Something is radically wrong and we need to start asking the right questions and finding answers lest the wheel becomes unsteerable.
没有一个社会懂得处理技术带来的冲击，包括因特网。这冲击是非常深的社会影响，它影响到我们如何生活，我们如何信任他人。这问题只是其中的一个例子。 想想数以万亿的证券。有些事情完全错了，我们需要开始问一些正确的问题，并且发现答案以免车轮失去控制。（译者：似乎与本主题无关，不知留言者是否发错了）
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August 3, 2012 at 10:48 am |
mbmendo
China has effectively been playing a global game of monopoly, sucking manufacturing out of the old manufacturing bases, with the effect of crippling those economies. So, how do they afford China's products? Basing economies on buying stuff demands unhappiness/ dissatisfaction on the part of the buyers. So, we are unhappy whether we can afford to buy or not. With the coming global slump from combined effects of climate change and ever growing oil prices, we will have the chance to rethink the form and function of our economies. They must remain within planetary limits and be about supporting individuals, communities and the natural systems on which we depend. Ignoring the big picture and the long term is creating our problems, and it is likely that only a collapse of our current system will give humanity the opportunity to successfully reform our behaviour and organisation.
中国通过吸收一些老的制造业基地的制造能力，已经实际上玩起了全球垄断的把戏，这造成了那些经济体的衰落。所以，他们怎么能够买得起中国制造的商品？（强迫消费者购买）把经济基础建立在购买者不愉快和不满足地购买需求之上。所以不管我们能否买得起，我们都不高兴。在气候变化和不断上升的原油价格共同造成的全球经济衰退到来之际，我们将有机会重新思考我们经济的结构和功能。他们必须保持在这星球能够接受的限度之内，并且为个人，以及我们所依赖的社团和自然体系提供支持。对全局和长期的忽视造成了我们现在的问题，也许当前体系的崩溃将是人类的一个机会，让我们能够成功地改革我们的行为模式和组织结构。
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August 3, 2012 at 11:17 am |
Mustafa
Every economy which is based on comodities will always survive any economic down turn, becuase they r manufacturing products which are widely consumes all around the world, sometimes at a high demand and sometimes low, like China. Unlike other economies which are only based on financial modeling and maintaining numbers which do not even exist in real time. USA boomed in the past for their innovative products and went down after getting fat and slugish in maintaining that innovation. USA and GB is never getting back up cus they do not have anything to sell, which the world might need, well nto really for USA cus they are good at creating the demand for their weapons (if you know aht i mean). So as long as there are wars around the world, USA will do fine, but for other European countries, they need to simply start manufacturing.
建立在商品之上的经济体将能一直幸免于经济下降，因为他们生产的产品被全世界消费，即便有时需求多一些，有时需求少一些，就像中国这样的经济。不像其他其他一些经济，他们建立在金融模型和维持的数字之上，这些东西在真实的世界里并不存在。美国曾经因为他们创新的产品而迅速发展，但是当他们变得臃肿并且无法维持创新的时候，就开始下滑了。美国和英国将不会重新站起来，因为他们没有任何这个世界需要的东西可以出售，当然这对美国而言不够确切，因为他们非常善于创造对他们的武器的需求（你知道我的意思）。所以只要世界上有战争，美国就可以过的不错，但是对其他的欧洲国家，他们必须开始制造产品。
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August 3, 2012 at 11:25 am |
Dani Yuliadi
http://www.bali-prefab.com
August 3, 2012 at 11:32 am |
China is evil
China is evil, China is evil... I've repeated this in my head for 100 times already. So please CNN I've done my brainwash quota for the day. Could you give me something else to digest?
中国是邪恶的，中国是邪恶的。。。。我已经把这句话在我的脑子里重复了100次。所以，CNN, 我已经完成了我今天的洗脑配额。你们能给我一些其他可以下咽的东西吗？
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August 3, 2012 at 11:52 am |
Tharindu Ameresekere (Senior CIMA Lecturer from Sri Lanka)
China's growth has been largely dependent on main cities such as Beijing and Shanghai. there is vast potential in second tier cities such as Dalian and Wuhan which the govt must move in quick to harness. There by the stress on the only 4 First tier citiies Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen can be reduced enabling a moee organic growth.
中国的增长极大地依赖于主要的城市，例如北京和上海。一些二线城市也有非常大的潜力，像大连和武汉，政府必须尽快加强这些城市的治理。这样，对仅有的四个一线城市，北京、上海、广州和深圳的压力就会减轻，同时可能引发良好的组织内增长。
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August 3, 2012 at 12:41 pm |
Huaqiao
To "China is evil" – I think the devil dwells within your own head and that is why you so evilly and maliciously keep on repeating "China is evil" until you become so crazy.
回复“China is evil” ： 我认为有魔鬼居住在你的脑袋里，这是为什么你这么邪恶而充满敌意地重复“中国是邪恶的”，以至于你变得如此疯狂。
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August 3, 2012 at 1:12 pm |
Richard
China's manufacturing growth that has slowed down to 50.1 in July compared to 50.2 in June will pick up again in August and reach 50.3 ....is my guess....http://www.guessn.com/guessn/chi ... ugust-and-reach-503
中国的制造业增速已从6月的50.2减慢到7月的50.1，并且将会在8月重新达到50.3. 我猜。
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August 3, 2012 at 2:13 pm |
thislittlepiggywentweeweewee
Whole world economy crash. 整个世界的经济都破产了
Go boom. 伴随着轰隆声
We fall in sinkhole.我们掉进臭水沟
Entombed.被埋葬。
（译者：这哥们在写诗）
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August 3, 2012 at 2:31 pm |
simple simon
Intelligent analysis of the situation isn't worth anything. You can't bring a dead dog back to life. The dog has been kept on life support for a very long time. Now the dog is dead, but no one seems to realize it and everyone just keeps kicking the dog. When a dog dies, the fleas are screwed.
对情况的聪明分析也是一文不值。你不可能让一只死狗活过来。这狗已经依赖生命维持系统很久了。现在它死了，但是没有任何人意识到这一点，他们只是不断地踢它。 狗死了，跳蚤就跳出来了。
Huaqiao, you missed the sarcasm. huaqiao，你没有理解上文的讽刺。
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August 3, 2012 at 2:38 pm |
go for broke
Let's see...the world's gone broke, but we have no shortage of billionaires, and multimillionaires by the millions.
瞧瞧，世界破产了，但是我们还有这么多的亿万富翁，数百万的大富豪。
HMMMMMM. 嗯~~
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August 3, 2012 at 2:53 pm |
Wailun Ng
Mobius is right – China is still growing, albeit at a slower rate. There's no hard or soft landing that westerners are accustomed to. The real hard landing will come in the next decade when the grow is no longer sustainable.. China's growth for the past 20 years is fueled by government land sales, high taxes and massive infrastructure spending. this can be sustained for another 10 – 15 years but after that, reaility will sink in. don't forget, China's economy was miniscule when the current boom started in 1993, unlike other countries which had been growing steadily since the end of WW2. thus, China's current economic boom is mainly due to compressing 60 years (since 1950) into 20 years (1993 to 2012). i've been in China for almost 20 years so i see things differently
Mobius是对的——中国经济仍然在增长，尽管慢了一点儿。将不会有西方人习惯的硬着陆或软着陆。真正的硬着陆将发生在下一个十年里，当增长再也不能持续的时候。中国过去20年的增长源于政府出售土地，高额的税收和大量的基础设施开销，这将可以再维持10-15年，但是在那之后，真实的情况将显现出来。不要忘记，中国经济在1993年开始的快速增长之前是很弱小的，不像其他国家从二次世界大战之后就开始稳定增长。因此中国当前的经济繁荣主要是由于将60年（从1950）的经济增长压缩在了20年（1993-2012）里。我在中国呆了几乎20年，所以我看到了事情的另一面。
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August 3, 2012 at 3:38 pm |
Wayan Chan
China has almost hit the "bottom" of its current cycle. I expect a BIG bounce from early next year onwards so would buying in now as prices are extremely cheap.
中国几乎已经达到本轮经济周期的底部， 我预期明年初将开始大反弹，所以现在建议你们买进，因为现在的价格真的超级便宜。 （译者：这人炒股票的吧？？）
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August 3, 2012 at 4:10 pm |
major tom
Mr. Ameresekere, how can you exclude Chongqing from a list of China's first tier cities? I don't think you know your facts. Ameresekere先生，你怎么能把重庆排出在中国的一线城市之外？ 我不认为你理解你所陈述的内容。（译者：回复上文的斯里兰卡讲师）
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August 3, 2012 at 5:18 pm |
Godfather Al Pacino
Deng Xiaoping – a period of economic growth 邓小平时期——经济增长
Jiang Zeming – a period of economic growth江泽民时期——经济增长
Hu Jintao – a period of economic growthhu时期——经济增长
The next President to be – do you think he will let China into a period of economic recession ? And let his name be tainted in history ? Think about it.
下一个主席会怎么样？你认为他会让中国经历一段经济衰退？从而让他的名字成为历史上的污点？
I bet the next man in power will continue to lead China into continual prosperity and good economic progress.
我打赌下一个主席将继续领导中国走向持续的繁荣和巨大的经济进步。
That's 100% for sure. 这是100%确定的。
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August 3, 2012 at 5:21 pm |
Bushdiver
I think China will be just fine. Eat your hearts out US and EU.
我认为中国将会没事。。。。
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August 3, 2012 at 8:44 pm |
zy130
China's economy will be affected by many factors, some of them are no just economic or financial issues
中国的经济可能被许多因素影响，并不仅仅是经济和金融因素。
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August 3, 2012 at 11:26 pm |
Cherish
That means money is moving different places other than china, money does not like uncertainties. China does not float RMB, we are probably going to see china as another Greece, not Euro Only
那意味着财富正在流动到其他的地方而不是不是中国，金钱不喜欢不确定性。中国不允许人民币自由浮动，我们可能将看到中国变成另一个希腊，不仅仅是欧元
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http://www.ltaaa.cn/bbs/thread-79443-1-1.html
万恶的审核
万恶的资本主义。
建立在商品之上的经济体将能一直幸免 于经济下降，因为他们生产的产品被全 世界消费，即便有时需求多一些，有时 需求少一些，就像中国这样的经济。不 像其他其他一些经济，他们建立在金融 模型和维持的数字之上，这些东西在真 实的世界里并不存在。美国曾经因为他 们创新的产品而迅速发展，但是当他们 变得臃肿并且无法维持创新的时候，就 开始下滑了。美国和英国将不会重新站 起来，因为他们没有任何这个世界需要 的东西可以出售，当然这对美国而言不 够确切，因为他们非常善于创造对他们 的武器的需求（你知道我的意思）。所 以只要世界上有战争，美国就可以过的 不错，但是对其他的欧洲国家，他们必 须开始制造产品。