ZT【译文-中文】GDP预测：碾落尘埃的“欧洲猪国”

【原文地址】：http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/01/gdp_forecasts
【发布日期】：2011-01-04
【翻译截止日期】：2011-01-07 12:00:00
【翻译评论数/总评论】：43 / 43
【翻译作者】：paulina
【联名作者】：

　　译文导读：由于这个相当恶毒的标题，导致多国人民的混合PK；然后又莫名的拐去了波多黎各。
中国居然没有躺着中枪，芥末啊……这篇文章在主页看到的题目是 “Growth in 2011（2011年的增长）”，于是俺穿着加厚防弹衣前往围观。但是由于这个相当恶毒的标题，导致多国人民的混合PK；然后又莫名的拐去了波多黎各。

中国居然没有躺着中枪，芥末啊……
灰色为原文，【全角中框里的淡紫色字体为译者的注释或吐槽】
第一次翻译，非专业人员，请多包涵 > <

Countries with the fastest and slowest growth forecasts
拥有最快和最慢增长的国家预测

THE cost of insuring Ireland’s debt against default is now higher than insuring Argentina’s. Five-year Argentinean credit-default swaps (CDS) have been tightening, whilst Ireland’s have widened to 609 basis points, the third highest in the world, after Greece and Venezuela. GDP growth forecasts for 2011 are not much more optimistic for these European countries. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, a sister company of The Economist, Ireland’s and Greece’s GDP will decline by 0.9% and 3.6% respectively. The PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain), find themselves among the slowest growers this year. In contrast, after avoiding recession in 2008 and 2009, and enjoying the global recovery in 2010, Qatar is set to grow by 15.8% this year. Strong growth is largely due to its liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects and an expansionary fiscal policy focused on infrastructure. China and India are also projected another year of strong growth, 8.9% and 8.6%, respectively.
现在爱尔兰的债务违约保险成本比阿根廷还高。阿根廷的五年期信贷违约互换（CDS）已经在收紧，而爱尔兰的已扩大到609个基点，在世界第三位，仅次于希腊和委内瑞拉。2011年的GDP增长预测对这些欧洲国家来说并不乐观。根据经济学人情报组（EIU），经济学人的姐妹公司，爱尔兰和希腊的GDP将会为-0.9%和-3.6%。“欧洲猪国”（葡萄牙、爱尔兰、意大利、希腊和西班牙）发现他们处于今年增长最慢的国家之中。作为对比，在2008和2009年避免了衰退，并在2010年受惠于全球复苏的卡塔尔，今年将会增长15.8%。强势增长很大程度上是因为该国的液化天然气（LNG）工程和聚焦于基础设施的扩张性财政政策。中国和印度同样规划了又一年的强势增长，分别为8.9% 和 8.6%。


（公司内不可上传文件，俺回去了再贴图 = =|||）
图片地址：
图片上的国家：左侧由上到下：卡塔尔、加纳、蒙古、厄立特里亚、埃塞俄比亚、中国、印度、乌兹别克斯坦、东帝汶、老挝
右侧由上到下：西班牙、巴哈马群岛、冰岛、意大利、委内瑞拉、爱尔兰、巴巴多斯岛、葡萄牙、希腊、波多黎各
数据来源：经济学人情报组TOP↑
评论翻译 Michael Dunne wrote:

Jan 4th 2011 3:04 GMT
I wonder why Puerto Rico is forecasted to experience a decline in GPD?
Recommend (53)
我想知道为什么波多黎各的预测GDP会减少？【其实我真的想知道为什么他们这么关心波多黎各，整个评论都一直一直往波多黎各拐过去】

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pedrolx wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 3:29 GMT
This is according to the ever so wonderful IMF. The government here expects Portugal to grow by 0.2% , and the EU is also kinder in its forecasts. In any case, forecasts are forecasts, everyone said Portugal wouldn't grow this year, and it will present a growth of 1.5%! ;-)
Recommend (22)
这是根据那无与伦比的国际货币基金组织（IMF）来的。这个组织期望葡萄牙增长0.2%，而欧盟也同样类似的预测着。不论如何，预测仅是预测，每个人都说葡萄牙今年不会增长，但是它最终会达到1.5%的增长！;-)

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Carlos Collaco wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 3:36 GMT
Forecasts are what they are.
Coming from the EIU they should deservedly get a second look despite recent misses.But then everybody else failed too...
In the lucky lot all except Qatar are impressive on their own.
Fast growth is taking place where it's needed.
Ghana and Timor-Leste are especially heartening.
The slowest ten are striking for comprising the majors of ClubMed - literally crawling - plus Portugal, Ireland and Iceland, oil-rich Venezuela, small Caribbean island-nations and oddly, Puerto Rico(!).
Greece remains in deep trouble while in the Iberian Peninsula Spain hopefully returns to feeble growth.
Portugal double dips into recession unless it manages to export its way out to narrowly avoid one.
Recommend (11)
预测也就是预测而已。
说到经济学人情报组，除了近期的失误外他们也应当再看看（情况）。但是这样所有其他人也都将出错……
在除了卡塔尔的幸运国家里，都是由于自身而令人印象深刻。
快速增长正在它所需要的地方发生。
加纳和东帝汶尤其令人振奋。
最慢的十个国家由地中海俱乐部组成 – 正如字面意思 – 加上葡萄牙，爱尔兰和冰岛，石油富足的委内瑞拉，小加勒比海岛屿国家和奇怪的，波多黎各（!）。
希腊的麻烦持续着，同时伊比利亚半岛的西班牙希望能够回到弱势增长。
葡萄牙加速陷入衰退，除非它能够以出口拓宽道路。

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__jaime__ wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 3:50 GMT
It is incredible how disrespectful british finance press can be. Which is forecasted growth for UK? As bad as the PIIGS one. Britain once dominated the world, as Spain did, but that is no longer true.
All PIIGS countries are performing terribly bad, as UK does. So don't think you are much different.
I'm from Spain and I'm specally critical with my country. I think it should fall and Europe should let us fall, so people will learn the lesson and changes have to done will finally implemented. But even if I was German, a country that is teaching all us how we should be, I would never use a term like that. Calling these countries "pigs" you are playing a dangerous game, a game of segregation and disrespect.
British, if we, Mediterraneans, are "pigs" remember most powerful people of your country or union of countries, as you want, are a branch of snobs that only know how to move other's people money. You have no industry left, a strong coin, thousands of people living from subsidies and very poor prospects.
Recommend (65)
不列颠的金融报刊令人难以置信的失礼。英国的预期增长是多少？和“猪国”的国家一样糟糕。不列颠曾经统治世界，正如西班牙一样，但是现在不再是了。
所有的“猪国”国家都表现的极其糟糕，英国也一样。所以别以为你有什么不同。
我来自西班牙，我对自己的国家十分不满。我认为西班牙应当垮台而欧洲应该让我们垮掉，这样人们将会吸取教训，必须进行的变革将最终完成。但是即使我是德国，一个正在教导我们该怎样做的国家，也不会使用这样的称呼。把这些国家称为“猪国”是在进行一场危险的游戏，一场隔离与不尊重的游戏。
不列颠，如果我们，地中海国家，是“猪国”，那么记住在你的国家里最有权势的人或者国家联盟，正如你想要的，是一群只知道把其他人的钱财移走的势利小人。你已没有工业，没有强势货币，大量人民靠补助金生活，呈现非常贫穷的景象。

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Besitz Belastet wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 4:26 GMT
Does someone have evidence for that Anglo-Saxons, or the British press in particular, coined the acronym "Pigs/Piigs"? I suspect an analyst in an investment bank - who is as likely to have been Spanish or Italian as s/he was British - started using it. An over-sensitive reaction to a mildly ironic acronym is not unlike that of insecure Islamists to the Danish cartoons - what does it really matter? Spain and Greece have deep structural economic problems. Britain too has structural economic problems (but less acute). So be it.
Recommend (33)
有人能拿出证据是盎格鲁-撒克逊人，或者说不列颠人的新闻中特别使用首字母创造了“Pigs/Piigs”吗？我猜是一个投行里的分析员 – 也许她/他曾是不列颠人而现在是西班牙或意大利人 – 开始使用这个词。对一个带有温和讽刺意味的缩写而过度敏感，与对丹麦动画而缺乏安全感的伊斯兰教徒没有什么不同 - 这事有什么大不了的？西班牙和希腊有深刻的结构性经济问题。不列颠同样有着结构性经济问题（不那么严重）。就是这样。

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mename2332 wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 4:32 GMT
where is singapore?
Recommend (7)
新加坡在哪儿？

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hedgefundguy wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 4:45 GMT
I'll guess that PIIGS is a more politically correct name than
GIPSI - gypsy
Regards
Recommend (37)
我猜“PIIGS猪国”比另一个名字更加政治正确：
GIPSI – 吉普赛人
【这条评论很快就被删掉了……】

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Jonas_BsAs wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 5:05 GMT
@__jaime__
Oh Jaime,cry me a river.
We Latin Americans have been the victims of spanish arrogance since forever and now, when you have mangaged to screw up your own economy, you cry for mercy?
Recommend (46)
哦__jaime__【前面那个怒了的西班牙人】，我内牛满面。
我们拉丁美洲从来都是西班牙人的傲慢的牺牲者，而当你成功搞砸了自己的经济时，却哭求怜悯？
【这条也被删了。难道曾被殖民的国家不可以抱怨？我觉得这条的内容挺正常的啊】

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VK1961 wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 5:14 GMT
The economic measurement is, of course, distorted by the *political* circumstances. Venezuela is where it is largely because of its, ah... ~extraordinary~ way of doing business with its trade partners; Puerto Rico's state of affairs is neither here nor there, due to its ancillary status, vis-a-vis the US; some other Caribbean islands are offshore havens for American and European tax-dodgers, so I'm not entirely sure that their "growth" should be applauded; Spain is still deflating its housing bubble (as is the US), caused in turn by grave political oversight, or even encouragement-- all in the wrong direction.
So tables, charts, etc. are all fine and good, but tell a partial, and often lopsided story.
Recommend (9)
对经济的衡量当然会受到“政治”环境的歪曲。委内瑞拉之所以是这样很大程度上是因为它的，呃……~非同寻常的~与贸易伙伴做生意的方式；波多黎各的形势非此也非彼，而是由于它的附属状态，面对美国的时候；其他的一些加勒比岛屿是美国和欧洲逃税者的离岸天堂，因此我不确定是否应该为他们的“增长”而鼓掌；西班牙仍因房地产泡沫而通缩（正如美国），由严重的政治失误，或者甚至是鼓励而导致 – 全都在错误的方向上。
因此表格、图示等等（的数据）都是对的，但只显示了不完整且常常不平等的情况。

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inrio wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 7:28 GMT
Puerto Rico's constant and sharp decline has a direct relationship with it's lack of sovereignty which unables this latin and caribbean country to sign agreements and international treaties, just like the rest of Latin America, with emerging economies.
Recommend (16)
波多黎各（经济）长期的急剧下降与它的主权缺失有直接联系。主权缺失使这个拉丁加勒比国家无法像其他拉丁美洲国家一样，与新兴经济体签署协议和国家条约。

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hedgefundguy wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 7:45 GMT
Puerto Rico, blame it on the Captain!
Excerpts:
"Diageo’s Captain Morgan Rum’s distillery in the U.S. Virgin Islands is finally scheduled to produce rum by the end of the year."
"For many years, a third party distiller in Puerto Rico has been producing Captain Morgan Rum and selling it to Seagram’s. Diageo bought the Captain Morgan Rum label in 2001 inheriting this third party manufacturing agreement. They have looking for years how to arrange a way for them to produce their own rum under the Captain Morgan Rum label. With the manufacturing plant now being built for Diageo to produce the rum themselves, Puerto Rico will be losing millions of dollars that were coming to their territory from the rum excise tax."
http://www.caribbeanislandsrealt ... ns-rum-produced-...
Regards
Recommend (6)
波多黎各，去责备船长！
摘抄：
“Diageo【总部在伦敦的高档酒业集团】在美国维尔京群岛【应为英属维尔京群岛，疑为发帖人笔误】的某朗姆酿酒厂在今年年底时终于准备生产朗姆酒了。”【Captain Morgan，一种朗姆酒商标】
“许多年来，波多黎各的一个当地酿酒厂生产这种朗姆酒并将其卖到西格拉姆【位于纽约市中心的一座大厦】。Diageo在2001年买下了这一朗姆酒商标并继承了该公司的生产协议。他们花费多年以寻找使用该商标生产自己的朗姆酒的方法。现在拥有为Diageo自己生产朗姆酒的制造基地，波多黎各却将损失数百万美元的本属于他们自己管辖区域的朗姆酒特许权税。”
http://www.caribbeanislandsrealt ... ns-rum-produced-...
致礼。

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Mago911 wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 8:08 GMT
Just for the record; Peru&acute;s economy grew at a 9.0 % rate in 2010.
Miguel A. Guerrero
Recommend (12)
仅供参考：波多黎各2010年的经济增长为9.0%

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Winston C wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 8:21 GMT
Well it is good to see that Africa is on a good economical edge and what about Ghana... this country impresses me economically but mostly politically with a solid democracy; Africa should be inspired.
Recommend (17)
很高兴看到非洲有一个良好的经济形势，看看加纳……。这个国家从经济上，更多的是从稳定的民主政治上让我印象深刻；非洲应当雄起。

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JRafael wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 8:33 GMT
The reason for Puerto Rico's negative forecast is a mix of historically low employment participation rates (due to the application of United States' generous welfare programs in a weaker economy such as Puerto Rico's), government budgetary deficits, and more recently, the sudden approval (without any public hearing or input from the industries) by the Puerto Rico Government of a new tax to the pharmaceutical industry in Puerto Rico, which during the last two decades has been the main investor in the Island. This new tax was approved notwithstanding taxes agreements that have been previously agreed to between the government and each of the pharmaceutical companies with manufacturing operations in the Island. Once the main industries in Puerto Rico have felt betrayed by the govenrment, rumors about their departure from the Island have been growing and therefor investors have also been discouraged from investing and trusting Puerto Rico's "Republican" and Pro-Statehood government.
Recommend (11)
对波多黎各的负面预测由以下原因混杂造成：历史性的低就业率（美国慷慨的福利项目在一个较弱的经济体实行而造成，如波多黎各），政府预算赤字，以及近期由波多黎各政府突然通过的（没有经过任何公众听证或工业输入）对制药业的新税负，而制药业是近二十年间这座岛屿的主要投资方向。尽管之前政府和每一个在岛上进行制造的制药公司已经有了税收协议，这项新税仍被通过了。一旦波多黎各的主要工业感到被政府出卖，关于他们将离开该岛的流言会开始增加，于是投资人将不再投资并停止信任波多黎各“共和党”和非独立国家的政府。

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An Drew wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 9:22 GMT
Wow, just following the wave of nationalism in the comments section.
Recommend (16)
哇哦，跟随评论区的民族主义浪潮而来。

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Fernandi wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 9:41 GMT
It is time for Puerto Rico to become a fully sovereign nation. The neo-colonial relationship of Puerto Rico with the United States established during the cold war era (1952) has brought the island nation to it's knees. With one of the highest unemployment rates in Latin America at 17% (december 2010) and one of the highest rate of homicides in the region per capita with 268 per 100.000.000, higher than Mexico in 2010.
Puerto Rico's social and financial meltdown is now visible for the whole world to see. The only solution is for Puerto Rico to become fully sovereign: to have full control of it's economy and future, right now Puerto Rico does not have full control of it's destiny and it is falling apart at its seams. This is brand new news for many but it is not news for us who watch Latin America closely and who know that Puerto Rico is the only nation in Latin America which can not sign today a free trade treaty with China, Japan or with the European Union because it is not a fully sovereign nation.
Recommend (20)
到了波多黎各成为完全独立自主国家的时候了。波多黎各与美国的新殖民主义的联系建立于冷战时期（1952年），这种关系让这个岛国跪倒。有着17%的失业率，每10万人中268个杀人犯，这比2010年的墨西哥还高，是拉丁美洲最高的比率之一。
波多黎各社会和财政的彻底垮台现在全世界都可以看到。唯一的解决方案是让波多黎各完全独立自主：对它的经济和未来的全面掌控，现在波多黎各对它的命运没有完全掌握且正从缝隙处分裂。这对很多人来说是完全陌生的事情，但是对我们这些密切关注拉丁美洲的人却不是，波多黎各是唯一一个不能与中国、日本或欧盟签署贸易协约的拉丁美洲国家，因为它不是完全独立自主的国家。

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mcjpaterson wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 10:23 GMT
Why is puert Rico on your list of slowest GDP growth when you forecast over 4%
do you mean it is slowing
Surely it is not the 10th slowest grower in 2011
You are usually precise
Recommend (6)
为什么波多黎各的预期是超过4%却在GDP增速最慢的列表上？
意思是说增速在减缓吗
它肯定不是2011年增速最慢的前10位
经济学人通常都很精确的

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mcjpaterson wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 10:23 GMT
Sorry I misread the chart
Pl ignore
Recommend (6)
抱歉我看错了图表【还是上面那个人】
请无视

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mopoga wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 10:25 GMT
Are these numbers in real or nominal terms?
Recommend (6)
这些数字是实际参数还是名义参数？

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perspectivist wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 10:53 GMT
The Economist should clearly state whether the list includes all countries in the world or just a list of selected countries.
Recommend (9)
经济学人应该清楚说明这个列表是包括了世界上的所有国家还是仅仅列了选出的部分国家。

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portoricensis wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 11:52 GMT
portoricencis
I do not think it is fair to compare the development a free nations with colonies like Puerto Rico. With recognized sovereingty Puerto Rico would be one of the most productive nations in Latin America. But it is not much you can do with both hands held by foreign political and economic interference. Puert Rico's real problem is lack of political power.
Recommend (5)
我觉得把自由的国家和波多黎各一样的殖民地的发展相比较是不公平的。随着对独立自主的认知，波多黎各将会成为拉丁美洲最富饶的国家之一。但是当你的双手被外国政治和经济介入所束缚的时候，你做不了什么事。波多黎各真正的问题是缺乏政治权利。

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Michael Dunne wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 11:57 GMT
Interesting comments particularly concerning Puerto Rico.
Seems like it has been declining for a couple of years now.
However, it also seems to be one of the wealthier countries in Latin American (GPD per capita income: 69th position, at $ 17,100 PPP (2009 est.)); and just behind Antiqua and Barbaduda for Caribbean countries.
Literacy seems to be in teh middle ranks of major Latin American countries too - total population older than 15 that can read and right: 94.1% (Chile is something like 96.7%; Argentina,97.7%; Brazil, 90%; Columbia, 92.7%; Mexico, 92.8%; Uruguay, 97.9%; Peru, 89.6%)
Interesting that the UN Human Development site doesn't compile stats for Puerto Rico (at least I have not been able to find them)
I take it tourism may not have completely recovered too?
Recommend (1)
有趣的评论，特别是关于波多黎各的。
看起来它好像已经不断衰退了好几年。
但是，它同时又像是一个拉丁美洲的富裕国家之一（人均GDP收入：第69位，人均购买力平价$17,100（2009年））；在加勒比国家中仅次于安提瓜岛和巴巴多斯岛。
识字率似乎也在拉丁美洲主要国家的中流 – 大于15岁可读写的人占总人口：94.1%（智力差不多在96.7%；阿根廷，97.7%；巴西，90%；哥伦比亚，92.7%；墨西哥，92.8%；乌拉圭，97.9%；秘鲁，89.6%）
有趣的是联合国人类发展署并不收录波多黎各的情况（至少我从来看不到他们）
我是否是还没从旅游中完全恢复？【本篇有N处笔误，最后一句表示没懂】

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Michael Dunne wrote:
Jan 5th 2011 12:05 GMT
Actually I stand corrected about Puerto Rico and the UN Human Development Index. They do have some details; and it seems the UN has info different from the CIA factbook (literacy of 89.6% vs the CIA's 94.1%).
Otherwise, good thing none of the current cultures of the "PIIGS" countries are guided by judeo-islamic dietary attitudes (or related taboos/dispositions toward our porcine friends).
Of course Greece, most of Spain and Portugal were once run by followers of Islam and now there may be growing minority populations in a P, or an I and likely the S country where they would not take kindly to the reference.
Maybe the "coiner"(s) of the phrase are Pink Floyd fans; in finance, who relish the lyrical animal allegories/screeds crafted by Roger Waters? But I digress.....
Recommend (1)
【还是上面那个发帖人】事实上我来更正关于波多黎各和联合国人类发展指数。他们是有一些详细资料的；而且看起来联合国的信息与CIA factbook不同（识字率89.6%，而CIA是94.1%）。
除此之外，好事情是“猪国”现在的文化都没有被犹太-伊斯兰饮食习惯所主导（或与我们的猪朋友相关的禁忌/习惯）。
当然了希腊、大部分的西班牙和葡萄牙都曾被伊斯兰追随者所操纵，现在在P国【葡萄牙】、或I国【爱尔兰】也可能是S国【西班牙】也许有人口增长中的少数民族，他们不会友好的接受这一称呼的。
也许（“猪国”）这个词的创造人是Pink Floyd【一个摇滚乐队】的粉丝；在金融领域，谁会对Roger Waters【Pink Floyd乐队的创作主脑】写下的关于动物寓言/冗言的歌词津津乐道？我歪楼了……【原文地址】：http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/01/gdp_forecasts
【发布日期】：2011-01-04
【翻译截止日期】：2011-01-07 12:00:00
【翻译评论数/总评论】：43 / 43
【翻译作者】：paulina
【联名作者】：

　　译文导读：由于这个相当恶毒的标题，导致多国人民的混合PK；然后又莫名的拐去了波多黎各。
中国居然没有躺着中枪，芥末啊……这篇文章在主页看到的题目是 “Growth in 2011（2011年的增长）”，于是俺穿着加厚防弹衣前往围观。但是由于这个相当恶毒的标题，导致多国人民的混合PK；然后又莫名的拐去了波多黎各。

中国居然没有躺着中枪，芥末啊……
灰色为原文，【全角中框里的淡紫色字体为译者的注释或吐槽】
第一次翻译，非专业人员，请多包涵 > <

Countries with the fastest and slowest growth forecasts
拥有最快和最慢增长的国家预测

THE cost of insuring Ireland’s debt against default is now higher than insuring Argentina’s. Five-year Argentinean credit-default swaps (CDS) have been tightening, whilst Ireland’s have widened to 609 basis points, the third highest in the world, after Greece and Venezuela. GDP growth forecasts for 2011 are not much more optimistic for these European countries. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, a sister company of The Economist, Ireland’s and Greece’s GDP will decline by 0.9% and 3.6% respectively. The PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain), find themselves among the slowest growers this year. In contrast, after avoiding recession in 2008 and 2009, and enjoying the global recovery in 2010, Qatar is set to grow by 15.8% this year. Strong growth is largely due to its liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects and an expansionary fiscal policy focused on infrastructure. China and India are also projected another year of strong growth, 8.9% and 8.6%, respectively.
现在爱尔兰的债务违约保险成本比阿根廷还高。阿根廷的五年期信贷违约互换（CDS）已经在收紧，而爱尔兰的已扩大到609个基点，在世界第三位，仅次于希腊和委内瑞拉。2011年的GDP增长预测对这些欧洲国家来说并不乐观。根据经济学人情报组（EIU），经济学人的姐妹公司，爱尔兰和希腊的GDP将会为-0.9%和-3.6%。“欧洲猪国”（葡萄牙、爱尔兰、意大利、希腊和西班牙）发现他们处于今年增长最慢的国家之中。作为对比，在2008和2009年避免了衰退，并在2010年受惠于全球复苏的卡塔尔，今年将会增长15.8%。强势增长很大程度上是因为该国的液化天然气（LNG）工程和聚焦于基础设施的扩张性财政政策。中国和印度同样规划了又一年的强势增长，分别为8.9% 和 8.6%。


（公司内不可上传文件，俺回去了再贴图 = =|||）
图片地址：
图片上的国家：左侧由上到下：卡塔尔、加纳、蒙古、厄立特里亚、埃塞俄比亚、中国、印度、乌兹别克斯坦、东帝汶、老挝
右侧由上到下：西班牙、巴哈马群岛、冰岛、意大利、委内瑞拉、爱尔兰、巴巴多斯岛、葡萄牙、希腊、波多黎各
数据来源：经济学人情报组TOP↑
评论翻译 Michael Dunne wrote:

Jan 4th 2011 3:04 GMT
I wonder why Puerto Rico is forecasted to experience a decline in GPD?
Recommend (53)
我想知道为什么波多黎各的预测GDP会减少？【其实我真的想知道为什么他们这么关心波多黎各，整个评论都一直一直往波多黎各拐过去】

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pedrolx wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 3:29 GMT
This is according to the ever so wonderful IMF. The government here expects Portugal to grow by 0.2% , and the EU is also kinder in its forecasts. In any case, forecasts are forecasts, everyone said Portugal wouldn't grow this year, and it will present a growth of 1.5%! ;-)
Recommend (22)
这是根据那无与伦比的国际货币基金组织（IMF）来的。这个组织期望葡萄牙增长0.2%，而欧盟也同样类似的预测着。不论如何，预测仅是预测，每个人都说葡萄牙今年不会增长，但是它最终会达到1.5%的增长！;-)

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Carlos Collaco wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 3:36 GMT
Forecasts are what they are.
Coming from the EIU they should deservedly get a second look despite recent misses.But then everybody else failed too...
In the lucky lot all except Qatar are impressive on their own.
Fast growth is taking place where it's needed.
Ghana and Timor-Leste are especially heartening.
The slowest ten are striking for comprising the majors of ClubMed - literally crawling - plus Portugal, Ireland and Iceland, oil-rich Venezuela, small Caribbean island-nations and oddly, Puerto Rico(!).
Greece remains in deep trouble while in the Iberian Peninsula Spain hopefully returns to feeble growth.
Portugal double dips into recession unless it manages to export its way out to narrowly avoid one.
Recommend (11)
预测也就是预测而已。
说到经济学人情报组，除了近期的失误外他们也应当再看看（情况）。但是这样所有其他人也都将出错……
在除了卡塔尔的幸运国家里，都是由于自身而令人印象深刻。
快速增长正在它所需要的地方发生。
加纳和东帝汶尤其令人振奋。
最慢的十个国家由地中海俱乐部组成 – 正如字面意思 – 加上葡萄牙，爱尔兰和冰岛，石油富足的委内瑞拉，小加勒比海岛屿国家和奇怪的，波多黎各（!）。
希腊的麻烦持续着，同时伊比利亚半岛的西班牙希望能够回到弱势增长。
葡萄牙加速陷入衰退，除非它能够以出口拓宽道路。

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__jaime__ wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 3:50 GMT
It is incredible how disrespectful british finance press can be. Which is forecasted growth for UK? As bad as the PIIGS one. Britain once dominated the world, as Spain did, but that is no longer true.
All PIIGS countries are performing terribly bad, as UK does. So don't think you are much different.
I'm from Spain and I'm specally critical with my country. I think it should fall and Europe should let us fall, so people will learn the lesson and changes have to done will finally implemented. But even if I was German, a country that is teaching all us how we should be, I would never use a term like that. Calling these countries "pigs" you are playing a dangerous game, a game of segregation and disrespect.
British, if we, Mediterraneans, are "pigs" remember most powerful people of your country or union of countries, as you want, are a branch of snobs that only know how to move other's people money. You have no industry left, a strong coin, thousands of people living from subsidies and very poor prospects.
Recommend (65)
不列颠的金融报刊令人难以置信的失礼。英国的预期增长是多少？和“猪国”的国家一样糟糕。不列颠曾经统治世界，正如西班牙一样，但是现在不再是了。
所有的“猪国”国家都表现的极其糟糕，英国也一样。所以别以为你有什么不同。
我来自西班牙，我对自己的国家十分不满。我认为西班牙应当垮台而欧洲应该让我们垮掉，这样人们将会吸取教训，必须进行的变革将最终完成。但是即使我是德国，一个正在教导我们该怎样做的国家，也不会使用这样的称呼。把这些国家称为“猪国”是在进行一场危险的游戏，一场隔离与不尊重的游戏。
不列颠，如果我们，地中海国家，是“猪国”，那么记住在你的国家里最有权势的人或者国家联盟，正如你想要的，是一群只知道把其他人的钱财移走的势利小人。你已没有工业，没有强势货币，大量人民靠补助金生活，呈现非常贫穷的景象。

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Besitz Belastet wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 4:26 GMT
Does someone have evidence for that Anglo-Saxons, or the British press in particular, coined the acronym "Pigs/Piigs"? I suspect an analyst in an investment bank - who is as likely to have been Spanish or Italian as s/he was British - started using it. An over-sensitive reaction to a mildly ironic acronym is not unlike that of insecure Islamists to the Danish cartoons - what does it really matter? Spain and Greece have deep structural economic problems. Britain too has structural economic problems (but less acute). So be it.
Recommend (33)
有人能拿出证据是盎格鲁-撒克逊人，或者说不列颠人的新闻中特别使用首字母创造了“Pigs/Piigs”吗？我猜是一个投行里的分析员 – 也许她/他曾是不列颠人而现在是西班牙或意大利人 – 开始使用这个词。对一个带有温和讽刺意味的缩写而过度敏感，与对丹麦动画而缺乏安全感的伊斯兰教徒没有什么不同 - 这事有什么大不了的？西班牙和希腊有深刻的结构性经济问题。不列颠同样有着结构性经济问题（不那么严重）。就是这样。

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mename2332 wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 4:32 GMT
where is singapore?
Recommend (7)
新加坡在哪儿？

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hedgefundguy wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 4:45 GMT
I'll guess that PIIGS is a more politically correct name than
GIPSI - gypsy
Regards
Recommend (37)
我猜“PIIGS猪国”比另一个名字更加政治正确：
GIPSI – 吉普赛人
【这条评论很快就被删掉了……】

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Jonas_BsAs wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 5:05 GMT
@__jaime__
Oh Jaime,cry me a river.
We Latin Americans have been the victims of spanish arrogance since forever and now, when you have mangaged to screw up your own economy, you cry for mercy?
Recommend (46)
哦__jaime__【前面那个怒了的西班牙人】，我内牛满面。
我们拉丁美洲从来都是西班牙人的傲慢的牺牲者，而当你成功搞砸了自己的经济时，却哭求怜悯？
【这条也被删了。难道曾被殖民的国家不可以抱怨？我觉得这条的内容挺正常的啊】

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VK1961 wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 5:14 GMT
The economic measurement is, of course, distorted by the *political* circumstances. Venezuela is where it is largely because of its, ah... ~extraordinary~ way of doing business with its trade partners; Puerto Rico's state of affairs is neither here nor there, due to its ancillary status, vis-a-vis the US; some other Caribbean islands are offshore havens for American and European tax-dodgers, so I'm not entirely sure that their "growth" should be applauded; Spain is still deflating its housing bubble (as is the US), caused in turn by grave political oversight, or even encouragement-- all in the wrong direction.
So tables, charts, etc. are all fine and good, but tell a partial, and often lopsided story.
Recommend (9)
对经济的衡量当然会受到“政治”环境的歪曲。委内瑞拉之所以是这样很大程度上是因为它的，呃……~非同寻常的~与贸易伙伴做生意的方式；波多黎各的形势非此也非彼，而是由于它的附属状态，面对美国的时候；其他的一些加勒比岛屿是美国和欧洲逃税者的离岸天堂，因此我不确定是否应该为他们的“增长”而鼓掌；西班牙仍因房地产泡沫而通缩（正如美国），由严重的政治失误，或者甚至是鼓励而导致 – 全都在错误的方向上。
因此表格、图示等等（的数据）都是对的，但只显示了不完整且常常不平等的情况。

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inrio wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 7:28 GMT
Puerto Rico's constant and sharp decline has a direct relationship with it's lack of sovereignty which unables this latin and caribbean country to sign agreements and international treaties, just like the rest of Latin America, with emerging economies.
Recommend (16)
波多黎各（经济）长期的急剧下降与它的主权缺失有直接联系。主权缺失使这个拉丁加勒比国家无法像其他拉丁美洲国家一样，与新兴经济体签署协议和国家条约。

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hedgefundguy wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 7:45 GMT
Puerto Rico, blame it on the Captain!
Excerpts:
"Diageo’s Captain Morgan Rum’s distillery in the U.S. Virgin Islands is finally scheduled to produce rum by the end of the year."
"For many years, a third party distiller in Puerto Rico has been producing Captain Morgan Rum and selling it to Seagram’s. Diageo bought the Captain Morgan Rum label in 2001 inheriting this third party manufacturing agreement. They have looking for years how to arrange a way for them to produce their own rum under the Captain Morgan Rum label. With the manufacturing plant now being built for Diageo to produce the rum themselves, Puerto Rico will be losing millions of dollars that were coming to their territory from the rum excise tax."
http://www.caribbeanislandsrealt ... ns-rum-produced-...
Regards
Recommend (6)
波多黎各，去责备船长！
摘抄：
“Diageo【总部在伦敦的高档酒业集团】在美国维尔京群岛【应为英属维尔京群岛，疑为发帖人笔误】的某朗姆酿酒厂在今年年底时终于准备生产朗姆酒了。”【Captain Morgan，一种朗姆酒商标】
“许多年来，波多黎各的一个当地酿酒厂生产这种朗姆酒并将其卖到西格拉姆【位于纽约市中心的一座大厦】。Diageo在2001年买下了这一朗姆酒商标并继承了该公司的生产协议。他们花费多年以寻找使用该商标生产自己的朗姆酒的方法。现在拥有为Diageo自己生产朗姆酒的制造基地，波多黎各却将损失数百万美元的本属于他们自己管辖区域的朗姆酒特许权税。”
http://www.caribbeanislandsrealt ... ns-rum-produced-...
致礼。

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Mago911 wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 8:08 GMT
Just for the record; Peru&acute;s economy grew at a 9.0 % rate in 2010.
Miguel A. Guerrero
Recommend (12)
仅供参考：波多黎各2010年的经济增长为9.0%

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Winston C wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 8:21 GMT
Well it is good to see that Africa is on a good economical edge and what about Ghana... this country impresses me economically but mostly politically with a solid democracy; Africa should be inspired.
Recommend (17)
很高兴看到非洲有一个良好的经济形势，看看加纳……。这个国家从经济上，更多的是从稳定的民主政治上让我印象深刻；非洲应当雄起。

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JRafael wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 8:33 GMT
The reason for Puerto Rico's negative forecast is a mix of historically low employment participation rates (due to the application of United States' generous welfare programs in a weaker economy such as Puerto Rico's), government budgetary deficits, and more recently, the sudden approval (without any public hearing or input from the industries) by the Puerto Rico Government of a new tax to the pharmaceutical industry in Puerto Rico, which during the last two decades has been the main investor in the Island. This new tax was approved notwithstanding taxes agreements that have been previously agreed to between the government and each of the pharmaceutical companies with manufacturing operations in the Island. Once the main industries in Puerto Rico have felt betrayed by the govenrment, rumors about their departure from the Island have been growing and therefor investors have also been discouraged from investing and trusting Puerto Rico's "Republican" and Pro-Statehood government.
Recommend (11)
对波多黎各的负面预测由以下原因混杂造成：历史性的低就业率（美国慷慨的福利项目在一个较弱的经济体实行而造成，如波多黎各），政府预算赤字，以及近期由波多黎各政府突然通过的（没有经过任何公众听证或工业输入）对制药业的新税负，而制药业是近二十年间这座岛屿的主要投资方向。尽管之前政府和每一个在岛上进行制造的制药公司已经有了税收协议，这项新税仍被通过了。一旦波多黎各的主要工业感到被政府出卖，关于他们将离开该岛的流言会开始增加，于是投资人将不再投资并停止信任波多黎各“共和党”和非独立国家的政府。

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An Drew wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 9:22 GMT
Wow, just following the wave of nationalism in the comments section.
Recommend (16)
哇哦，跟随评论区的民族主义浪潮而来。

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Fernandi wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 9:41 GMT
It is time for Puerto Rico to become a fully sovereign nation. The neo-colonial relationship of Puerto Rico with the United States established during the cold war era (1952) has brought the island nation to it's knees. With one of the highest unemployment rates in Latin America at 17% (december 2010) and one of the highest rate of homicides in the region per capita with 268 per 100.000.000, higher than Mexico in 2010.
Puerto Rico's social and financial meltdown is now visible for the whole world to see. The only solution is for Puerto Rico to become fully sovereign: to have full control of it's economy and future, right now Puerto Rico does not have full control of it's destiny and it is falling apart at its seams. This is brand new news for many but it is not news for us who watch Latin America closely and who know that Puerto Rico is the only nation in Latin America which can not sign today a free trade treaty with China, Japan or with the European Union because it is not a fully sovereign nation.
Recommend (20)
到了波多黎各成为完全独立自主国家的时候了。波多黎各与美国的新殖民主义的联系建立于冷战时期（1952年），这种关系让这个岛国跪倒。有着17%的失业率，每10万人中268个杀人犯，这比2010年的墨西哥还高，是拉丁美洲最高的比率之一。
波多黎各社会和财政的彻底垮台现在全世界都可以看到。唯一的解决方案是让波多黎各完全独立自主：对它的经济和未来的全面掌控，现在波多黎各对它的命运没有完全掌握且正从缝隙处分裂。这对很多人来说是完全陌生的事情，但是对我们这些密切关注拉丁美洲的人却不是，波多黎各是唯一一个不能与中国、日本或欧盟签署贸易协约的拉丁美洲国家，因为它不是完全独立自主的国家。

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mcjpaterson wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 10:23 GMT
Why is puert Rico on your list of slowest GDP growth when you forecast over 4%
do you mean it is slowing
Surely it is not the 10th slowest grower in 2011
You are usually precise
Recommend (6)
为什么波多黎各的预期是超过4%却在GDP增速最慢的列表上？
意思是说增速在减缓吗
它肯定不是2011年增速最慢的前10位
经济学人通常都很精确的

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mcjpaterson wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 10:23 GMT
Sorry I misread the chart
Pl ignore
Recommend (6)
抱歉我看错了图表【还是上面那个人】
请无视

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mopoga wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 10:25 GMT
Are these numbers in real or nominal terms?
Recommend (6)
这些数字是实际参数还是名义参数？

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perspectivist wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 10:53 GMT
The Economist should clearly state whether the list includes all countries in the world or just a list of selected countries.
Recommend (9)
经济学人应该清楚说明这个列表是包括了世界上的所有国家还是仅仅列了选出的部分国家。

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portoricensis wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 11:52 GMT
portoricencis
I do not think it is fair to compare the development a free nations with colonies like Puerto Rico. With recognized sovereingty Puerto Rico would be one of the most productive nations in Latin America. But it is not much you can do with both hands held by foreign political and economic interference. Puert Rico's real problem is lack of political power.
Recommend (5)
我觉得把自由的国家和波多黎各一样的殖民地的发展相比较是不公平的。随着对独立自主的认知，波多黎各将会成为拉丁美洲最富饶的国家之一。但是当你的双手被外国政治和经济介入所束缚的时候，你做不了什么事。波多黎各真正的问题是缺乏政治权利。

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Michael Dunne wrote:
Jan 4th 2011 11:57 GMT
Interesting comments particularly concerning Puerto Rico.
Seems like it has been declining for a couple of years now.
However, it also seems to be one of the wealthier countries in Latin American (GPD per capita income: 69th position, at $ 17,100 PPP (2009 est.)); and just behind Antiqua and Barbaduda for Caribbean countries.
Literacy seems to be in teh middle ranks of major Latin American countries too - total population older than 15 that can read and right: 94.1% (Chile is something like 96.7%; Argentina,97.7%; Brazil, 90%; Columbia, 92.7%; Mexico, 92.8%; Uruguay, 97.9%; Peru, 89.6%)
Interesting that the UN Human Development site doesn't compile stats for Puerto Rico (at least I have not been able to find them)
I take it tourism may not have completely recovered too?
Recommend (1)
有趣的评论，特别是关于波多黎各的。
看起来它好像已经不断衰退了好几年。
但是，它同时又像是一个拉丁美洲的富裕国家之一（人均GDP收入：第69位，人均购买力平价$17,100（2009年））；在加勒比国家中仅次于安提瓜岛和巴巴多斯岛。
识字率似乎也在拉丁美洲主要国家的中流 – 大于15岁可读写的人占总人口：94.1%（智力差不多在96.7%；阿根廷，97.7%；巴西，90%；哥伦比亚，92.7%；墨西哥，92.8%；乌拉圭，97.9%；秘鲁，89.6%）
有趣的是联合国人类发展署并不收录波多黎各的情况（至少我从来看不到他们）
我是否是还没从旅游中完全恢复？【本篇有N处笔误，最后一句表示没懂】

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Michael Dunne wrote:
Jan 5th 2011 12:05 GMT
Actually I stand corrected about Puerto Rico and the UN Human Development Index. They do have some details; and it seems the UN has info different from the CIA factbook (literacy of 89.6% vs the CIA's 94.1%).
Otherwise, good thing none of the current cultures of the "PIIGS" countries are guided by judeo-islamic dietary attitudes (or related taboos/dispositions toward our porcine friends).
Of course Greece, most of Spain and Portugal were once run by followers of Islam and now there may be growing minority populations in a P, or an I and likely the S country where they would not take kindly to the reference.
Maybe the "coiner"(s) of the phrase are Pink Floyd fans; in finance, who relish the lyrical animal allegories/screeds crafted by Roger Waters? But I digress.....
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【还是上面那个发帖人】事实上我来更正关于波多黎各和联合国人类发展指数。他们是有一些详细资料的；而且看起来联合国的信息与CIA factbook不同（识字率89.6%，而CIA是94.1%）。
除此之外，好事情是“猪国”现在的文化都没有被犹太-伊斯兰饮食习惯所主导（或与我们的猪朋友相关的禁忌/习惯）。
当然了希腊、大部分的西班牙和葡萄牙都曾被伊斯兰追随者所操纵，现在在P国【葡萄牙】、或I国【爱尔兰】也可能是S国【西班牙】也许有人口增长中的少数民族，他们不会友好的接受这一称呼的。
也许（“猪国”）这个词的创造人是Pink Floyd【一个摇滚乐队】的粉丝；在金融领域，谁会对Roger Waters【Pink Floyd乐队的创作主脑】写下的关于动物寓言/冗言的歌词津津乐道？我歪楼了……