[原创]国外网友对J-20的真实评价

本人基本不是军迷，连伪军迷都谈不上。只不过自从看到J-20曝光以后，心里非常激动。所以特意从外面转来我觉得比较有代表性的海外网友评价。

亲自翻译，请勿吐嘈

Would be hilarious if it were actually real.  All those fools who said "why do we need an F-22, Russia and China are decades from anything like that" would be choking on crow.:D
如果j-20是真的，那么那些宣称“我们还需要F-22干吗？中国和俄罗斯比起我们的技术差了将近几十年”的傻子估计该吐血了

As I'm loosing more and more my scepticism with each new picture showing up of the J-20, I fear it is no hoax but reality...

Luckily F-22 is - at this moment - still in production, and hopefully one will have the idea and decisive power to reverse the decision of shutting down the line... Unless a successor is planned or will be very soon, or there really is a surprise like a YF-24 or something flying at Groom...
I wonder how much Gates/DoD/CIA knew abouth this J-20 when deciding to end F-22 production? I can't imagine they didn't have intel about it...

Though off course we know nothing yet about possible J-20 performance and it may encouter development/performance-issues, IMHO it is already clear that this aircraft (unless someone is really pulling our legs with these pics) probably has an offensive purpose, and weither it is a striker or a fighter/missileer, will become a serious threat (militarily, strategically and politically) to the US and Allies in the next decades...
我越来越不怀疑这一切都是真得了。我担心这一切恐怕不再是骗局，而是赤裸裸的事实
幸运的是，f-22到现在为止还没有完全退出生产线，我也希望能有哪个强力部门能够收回他们放弃之前愚蠢的决定。除非一个更先进的已经提上日程，或者我们又能看到类似YF-22的惊喜。我想知道国防部长/国防部/中情局在决定关闭F-22生产线的前提下到底有没有事先了解J-20的情况，我不敢想象他们连这样的情报都没有
当然我们也不能完全确定J-20不会有一些内测性质的问题，不过总的来说，可以看到J-20已经出现了攻击型为主的特征。要么是一个歼击机，要么是一个轰炸机。总之它将给美国和盟国无论从战略，军事还是政治层面都会留下未来几十年的阴影

OMG, It's the end of America! Build more F-22s!

ROFL, you guys crack me up. Buy more diapers is more like it. Hell, maybe instead of building more Raptors, the USAF could upgrade them so they have systems on all of them that actually make them useful? This new plane from China could be operational by 2020 and maybe have systems equal to what we have in Superhornets now? OMG!

This isn't a threat to the U.S. and never has been and never will be. Hell, I read somewhere that even China has said they can't afford a lot of fighters and is trying to figure out what to do, because even the JF-17 is too expensive for what they would need, numbers wise.

Although, until any clear photos are released, or we see flight video's, I remain somewhat skeptical that these are images of the actual aircraft. It's kind of cool looking if it is and in terms of size it reminds me of the MiG-1.42/1.44. At this point, color me interested from an aviation standpoint, but not close to wetting myself from a War POV.

我的天哪，美国末日来了！赶快造更多的F-22!
哈哈，你们这些人让我笑死了，不过都准备好更多的尿布吧！该死，与其制造更多的猛禽，还不如让空军司令部升级现有服役战机的性能。中国的新飞机可能在2020年前才能部署，甚至有可能有类似超级大黄蜂一样的操作系统……我们完了

这可不是针对美国的威胁而且我觉得也永远不会。该死，我从哪里听说中国不可能承担得起那么多的战机，甚至连JF-17都非常昂贵，所以我觉得从数量级上他们赶不上
虽然在清晰照片或者视频出现之前，我仍然对这架飞机的真实性存在怀疑。它看起来挺酷的，而且尺寸然我想起了米格1.42/1.44,从航空制造水平来讲，我比较欣赏，不过还不至于让在打仗的时候尿裤子


it's not that, it's just I've heard all this B.S. so many times before it really gets tiring. The USAF, no doubt, has plenty of info about this aircraft and the PAK-FA and I'm sure they're quite familiar with what it's performance will be. There isn't another country around that can match our engine technology, except maybe in Europe, and none that match our electronic capabilites, except in some instances, Israel. I would say the greatest threat we probably face is from cheap EM pulse weapons.

我之前听了很多胡说八道……美国空军司令部，毫无疑问，应该已经足够掌握了这架飞机的性能，同时也包括俄罗斯的5代，我不相信还有其他国家可能与我们的引擎技术，相媲美，除了欧洲，并且也不可能和我们的电子系统相媲美，除了以色列，我还不如说真正对我们有所威胁的是各种廉价的电磁脉冲弹

I wouldn't be quite so dismissive. A decade ago, China was just flying the J-10. Before that, the only fighters of indigenous design were the J-8, which looked like a late-1950s MiG, and the JH-7 Jaguar-on-steroids. That's pretty rapid progress.

我可不敢那么轻易断言，10年前，中国还只是在飞j-10,在这之前，能看上眼的就只有J-8，而且看起来像50年代的米格和JH-7猎豹。看起来进展神速

Why do the fanboys keep trumping up this as a threat to us? It might be a threat if China ramps up production and sells it to every Tom, Dick, and Middle East Harry. But its certainly not a threat from China. They own how many trillion dollars of our national debt? So you have to figure any conflict with us has to be a money maker to the tune of 8-10 TRILLION$ to really make it worth it.

Really, would you go and attack somebody that owes you trillions of dollars- and is paying up like a good boy?

我真想不通上面几个小子一直坚称这是对我们的威胁，除非中国正式投产并且把他们卖给邪恶国家，不过这跟中国威胁美国毫无关系，他们拿着我们上万亿的国债，他们应该清楚一打仗，这些钱就被一笔勾销。说实话，你觉得你会攻击一个欠了钱的人么？而且将来他有可能要还钱的

Laugh all you want, I'll take the diapers.    Perhaps some pilots would better get some too. Just in case some Western military/political decision-makers regard their military assets as the eternal unbeatable and underestimate potential opponents' (c)a(pa)bilities or advancement.

"Cancellation of F-22? Russian and Chinese double-engined heavy stealth fighters showing up? Don't worry 'bout that, these are much inferior to ours. And like us, they won't be able to afford their aircraft. So let's downsize and cancel some more of our projects. China's giant economy is about to collapse anyway. And after all, soon we'll have plenty of our one and only true 5th-G fighter, the omnipotent F-35."  
Weren't during the 80's the teen-fighters also considered far superior and invincible? Till the MiG-29 & Su-27 with HMS/R-73 showed up, IIRC.

To me, dismissive thinking about (military) development and expansion in Asia is comparable in a way to what people thought about German and Japanese (military) development/expansion some 70 years ago. Any possible offensive intentions were laughed away then too. China has no regime comparable to the Nazis and probably has no hostile intentions, but offensive thoughts could allways pop-up during the next decade(s), and as history proves one is better prepared for such eventualities. Better over-estimate the other one then underestimate him, IMHO.

随你们怎么笑，我会去领尿片的，或许某些驾驶员也该领领。想象一下某些西方军事专家和政客整天鼓出他们是多么先进和不可战胜的
“取消生产F-22?中国和俄罗斯双引擎战机出炉？不要担心，他们比我们不堪一击，他们负担不起那么多的战机，就让我们缩小和取消生产规模。中国的庞大经济应该马上就要崩溃了。总之，我们很快就会有一个世界独一无二的五代战机，f-35"

对于我来说，任何错判亚洲军事发展和扩张的思维就跟70年前错判日本和德国不会扩张一样天真。任何攻击意图也会被耻笑，中国还没有比拟于纳粹的政权或许也没有恶意，不过充满攻击性的想法总会在未来几十年复燃的，历史一再验证了永远不要低估，时刻最好准备

It is true that conflict is not an impossibility but our two nations are deeply in bed together. They cant stop manufacturing consumer electronics no more than we can stop using them for production. Apple would go out of business if their Chinese plants shut down. If somebody invents the technology that would allow us to stop using them for manufacturing, well, then we might have a problem on our hands. Until then its all armchair ideology....

不可否认，任何潜在冲突不会发生，不过中美的关系很特殊。中国不可能放弃生产大量的电子设备，美国不可能停止消费大量的电子设备。如果中国的工厂被关闭，苹果会直接破产的。如果有人发明了智能工厂，那就只是我们的问题了。否则一切都是浮云

No extensive imagination needed. USA will bankrupt, all the US dollars became only a pieces of paper and they will be forced to create the Amero:  But we should leave this wild speculations and concentrate much on the aviation rather than politics.

China needs the 5th generation fighter, capable to attack/defend the future threats. That's for sure, no matter about the scenario. If it is this thing on the runway, we will see.

不用再想了，美国马上会破产的。美元会一夜之间成为废纸，然后会诞生了一个“北美币”，我们应该多关注航空方面，放弃对政治的幻想。
中国需要第五代战机，并且能够袭击和防卫于各种威胁。这是肯定的

The F-35 is not exactly the benchmark that I would be holding up as an example of good fighter program!  

A nation that can build the first the worlds fastest supercomputer, has matched the US in number of space launches in 2010, and now has the first operational ASBM carrier killing missile system is quite capable of building 5th gen fighters if given enough time and money (which they have).

其实F-35真得不算什么，如果我能有更多更好的设计方案

一个能够生产世界第一个快的超级电脑，并且在2010发射了与美国相当的太空任务，并且还有航母毁灭系统的国家，建造一个五代机没什么难的。只要他们有钱和时间（他们两个都有）

Please don’t waste our time with foolish muck raking. The time and cost figures I quoted were WITHOUT taking into account the comparatively minor (as a proportion of overall measure) schedule delays and cost over-runs of the project so your argument doesn’t apply.

However it’s quite clear you are one of those ‘Up with F-22, Down with F-35’ cheerleaders. So to transform this argument into one in which you have less emotional reason for trying to breakdown lets look at a similar analysis of the F-22.

For the ATF Demonstration-Validation phase Lockheed and Boeing need 700 million dollars and four years to build and fly the first YF-22A. The contract for actual F-22As (EMD Phase) was 10 billion dollars, later increased to almost 19 billion dollars, and needed 10 years to fly the first mission capable F-22A. So roughly comparable cost and schedule defences between demonstrator and mission capable aircraft for BOTH the YF-22A/F-22A and X-35/F-35.

The difference between developing and building the prototype 5th generation fighter demonstrator and the real thing based on the experience of the F-22 and F-35 is about 2.5 to 1 for schedule and 25 to 1 for cost. Congratulations to Russia (PAK FA) and perhaps sometime soon for China for building their 5th generation demonstrator they now have to do at least 25 times as much work to fly the real thing.

楼上的请不要浪费时间说些不着边际的话，时间和金钱基本上比不上项目编排和工作时效的重要性。
我感觉你就是那种“f-22万能，F-35不能”的优越帝，所以请能不能不要那么感情化地讨论关于F-22的问题
atf和波音花了7亿美金和四年打造了第一架YF-22A， 而f-22As的合同高达100亿美金，之后达到了190亿，而且花了10年才打造出来。所以几乎和X-35等机型相差无几。
唯一的不同是，研发和制造第五代战机的模型和样机可以根据这样的性价比算，F-22是2.5:1, F-35是25:1, 祝贺俄罗斯和即将曝光的中国研发出第五代的模型，现在他们要花费25倍的警力让他飞起来。

What about how many gold medals they won at the Olympics? Because that is about as useless a benchmark as those you have given. There is only one benchmark for building 5th generation fighters: building 5th generation fighters. How many high quality civil airliners, software-defined radios and advanced lightweight composite surfboards you may produce is not an adequate benchmark.

Besides China has an operational anti ship ballistic missile? Really… terminal guidance and everything? I doubt that. As to it being a carrier killer obviously never heard of AEGIS Ballistic Missile Defence…

奥运会拿了多少金牌和研发战机有关系么？唯一关乎于第五代战机的条件就是制造第五代战机的能力。中国真得有反舰导弹马？是卫星定位吗？我怀疑，我从来没听过什么弹道导弹防御系统可以击沉航母

Supposed Clinton era B-2 and missile tech and Obama F-35  (technology for cash) transfers to China. And even some during the Bush Admin.

Its seems like someone is trying to start a new cold war with the Chinese. How the hell did they make so much damn progress so damn fast? they got outside help thats how!!

我猜克林顿时代的B-2和导弹科技还有奥巴马时代的F-35(金钱换科技）科技都被转到了中国。布什时期也卖了

看起来某些人想引发一场对中国的全面冷战，否则他们怎么可能进步这么TM的快。他们肯定受到了外面的帮助

Outside help..Sort of... Break in Boeings and Lockheed Martins and Northrop Grumman network and use some Chinese trainees and students and you can make a jump start..
But to build an airframe is something different than making it work...
Their PR machine is good. It is just as BMW and other brands are doing. A sneak preview. Another small picture. A test on the Nurnburgring etc. Warming up the public.
We are strong....is the message but the finishing touch is a precise one..
It is definitely getting more interesting this way

外界的帮助？有可能，想象每年波音这样的公司都会有很多的中国实习生，这毫无疑问帮助了中国的跳跃式发展。不过建造一架飞机和让飞机飞起来还是不同的。
有可能是中国的公关手段？又抱琵琶半遮面？

Things move quick when a new prototype is unveiled. I think it’s pretty safe to say that this is a real plane with the reports now coming out of China. Yet there is still a long, long way to march before this can be considered a 5th generation aircraft to rival the F-35 or F-22.

照片暂时出来了，我想可以可靠地宣布这架飞机的真实存在，而且中国的报道也多了。虽然还有可能跟F-35或者F-22差得非常远


this is a littelbit off topic about J-20, more about the reaction in Post

i notice some odd reaction
first the "Wat China has the Technolgy ?!"  

有点脱离主题，不过我看到这个帖子里有很多有趣的反应

比如有一堆是“什么？？中国还有科技”（此人放了一张旧中国和新中国的对比图）

OMG fraction with "China got J-20, we need more F-22 or better the six Generation Fighter"
for now the J-20 has to make it maidenflight, F-22 made his first flight 20 years ago !
there no guarantee that J-20 perform better as F-22, or worse...
The US don't need more F-22, but the F-35 Navy Fighter fast!
because the Pacific US carrierfleet will the first who gonna have contact with J-20...

然后另一堆是“完了！完了！我们需要更多的f-22战机”。不管怎么说，F-22是20年前就已经首飞了，还没有证据能说明j-20就比F-22好到哪？不过美国确实应该加速f-35的部署，因为太平洋舰队将是第一个面对J20的进攻

Fascinating what a meritocracy, a liberal supply of cash and healthy dose of industrial espionage can achieve. Go China.

这年头一个精英领导班子，一大堆钱，还有一个扎实工业基础就能创造出这样一个奇迹，加油中国

I never suggested that the Chinese simply stole this design from someone's hard-drive.
My point exactly, Chinese labs have almost certainly had an infusion of external technology that would have supported some of the development that went on here, either directly or indirectly, and I dont regard it as an unkind suggestion. In fact I admire the ruthlessness with which China has gone about acquiring military technology, it appears to have been more productive than the Indian model.

我从没有指责中国是抄袭谁谁的设计。我的观点是，中国的实验室肯定借鉴了已有设计并且优化了这一设计。要么直接要么间接。我不觉得这是弱点，其实我很佩服中国对军事科技的钻研能力，这比印度的效率要高很多

The Chinese have been burdened with the nightmare of Communism since the late 1940's, and with a stifling, stagmant  imperial system before that. But in the last 20 years they've introduced a *lot* of economic freedoms... still well under the thumb of the government, but they are discovering the wonders of capitalism. The Chinese are finding that a free enterprise system is the way to go if you want to make advancements. So, even they they are "less free" than the West... they are trending upwards, while the West is trending downwards in that respect. So it's hardly surprising that their technology base is booming while we're in decline.

If the West had any smarts, we'd take a lesson from the Chinese. And that lesson comes in two parts:
1) Increase economic freedom
2) Decrease the governmental burden

And to make *real* progress, there'd be a third component:

3) Put the bureaucrats against the wall.

中国在1940年一直是闭关锁国和遭受了文革动乱的劫难。不过20年前，他们引入了自由经济的概念，并且由一个统一政府监管。他们极有效地发挥了资本主义的优势，中国发现自主创新是唯一的出路，虽然他们比起西方还不是太自由，不过总体而言他们是向上走的，而西方却是向下走的，所以我一点对他们的科技进步不感到惊奇。
如果西方聪明一点的话，应该从中国学到点东西。
1）增加自由经济
2）消除政府监管
最有用的
3）把那些官僚清理出去


If the South Koreans or the Germans or the Japanese had a serious shot at building a stealthy jet, there's no reason in the world to expect that the Chinese - who, after all, have built H-bombs and launched humans into orbit - could not do so. But there's also no reason in the world to expect that the design is a real world-beater in that regard, either.

如果韩国，德国和日本能够建造隐形战绩，那么中国有一个拥有氢弹和把人送上太空的国家，怎么不可以呢？而且有可能还是世界顶级的……

Wow, well this is likely to accelerate South Korea's and Japan's programs.

哇！估计南韩和日本要马上努力了

This "mediocre" aircraft is probably a lot more capable than YOU think. And China is a master at taking "products" and producing them cheaply. The US will probably be buying its stealth fighters from China like everything else, including semiconductors and food. I don't see how it is cost effective to make just about anything in the US anymore. Didn't Boeing move a factory to China?  Apart from being consumers of products it seems the USA is becoming "irrelevant" at least economically, soon it will be militarily as well. Go ahead and scoff at this "mediocre" fighter but do so at you're own peril.

这一架你们眼中的“中等机” 可能比你们想象的还要优秀。中国是一个能够生产成本成功降低的国家，美国有可能还会从中国买来这玩意儿，就像我们买他们的半导体和食品。我真得不认为美国还能便宜地生产什么，波音不是已经把工厂迁到中国了么。除了消费以外，美国越来越和实体经济脱节了。很快我们军事也会是这样，到时候你哭都来不及



暂时就这么多。我挑的。基本上我上的论坛，英美为主/。理性的特别多，比起啊三日本完全高了很多档次。不过主要问题还是在发动机和相关细节。期待首飞本人基本不是军迷，连伪军迷都谈不上。只不过自从看到J-20曝光以后，心里非常激动。所以特意从外面转来我觉得比较有代表性的海外网友评价。

亲自翻译，请勿吐嘈

Would be hilarious if it were actually real.  All those fools who said "why do we need an F-22, Russia and China are decades from anything like that" would be choking on crow.:D
如果j-20是真的，那么那些宣称“我们还需要F-22干吗？中国和俄罗斯比起我们的技术差了将近几十年”的傻子估计该吐血了

As I'm loosing more and more my scepticism with each new picture showing up of the J-20, I fear it is no hoax but reality...

Luckily F-22 is - at this moment - still in production, and hopefully one will have the idea and decisive power to reverse the decision of shutting down the line... Unless a successor is planned or will be very soon, or there really is a surprise like a YF-24 or something flying at Groom...
I wonder how much Gates/DoD/CIA knew abouth this J-20 when deciding to end F-22 production? I can't imagine they didn't have intel about it...

Though off course we know nothing yet about possible J-20 performance and it may encouter development/performance-issues, IMHO it is already clear that this aircraft (unless someone is really pulling our legs with these pics) probably has an offensive purpose, and weither it is a striker or a fighter/missileer, will become a serious threat (militarily, strategically and politically) to the US and Allies in the next decades...
我越来越不怀疑这一切都是真得了。我担心这一切恐怕不再是骗局，而是赤裸裸的事实
幸运的是，f-22到现在为止还没有完全退出生产线，我也希望能有哪个强力部门能够收回他们放弃之前愚蠢的决定。除非一个更先进的已经提上日程，或者我们又能看到类似YF-22的惊喜。我想知道国防部长/国防部/中情局在决定关闭F-22生产线的前提下到底有没有事先了解J-20的情况，我不敢想象他们连这样的情报都没有
当然我们也不能完全确定J-20不会有一些内测性质的问题，不过总的来说，可以看到J-20已经出现了攻击型为主的特征。要么是一个歼击机，要么是一个轰炸机。总之它将给美国和盟国无论从战略，军事还是政治层面都会留下未来几十年的阴影

OMG, It's the end of America! Build more F-22s!

ROFL, you guys crack me up. Buy more diapers is more like it. Hell, maybe instead of building more Raptors, the USAF could upgrade them so they have systems on all of them that actually make them useful? This new plane from China could be operational by 2020 and maybe have systems equal to what we have in Superhornets now? OMG!

This isn't a threat to the U.S. and never has been and never will be. Hell, I read somewhere that even China has said they can't afford a lot of fighters and is trying to figure out what to do, because even the JF-17 is too expensive for what they would need, numbers wise.

Although, until any clear photos are released, or we see flight video's, I remain somewhat skeptical that these are images of the actual aircraft. It's kind of cool looking if it is and in terms of size it reminds me of the MiG-1.42/1.44. At this point, color me interested from an aviation standpoint, but not close to wetting myself from a War POV.

我的天哪，美国末日来了！赶快造更多的F-22!
哈哈，你们这些人让我笑死了，不过都准备好更多的尿布吧！该死，与其制造更多的猛禽，还不如让空军司令部升级现有服役战机的性能。中国的新飞机可能在2020年前才能部署，甚至有可能有类似超级大黄蜂一样的操作系统……我们完了

这可不是针对美国的威胁而且我觉得也永远不会。该死，我从哪里听说中国不可能承担得起那么多的战机，甚至连JF-17都非常昂贵，所以我觉得从数量级上他们赶不上
虽然在清晰照片或者视频出现之前，我仍然对这架飞机的真实性存在怀疑。它看起来挺酷的，而且尺寸然我想起了米格1.42/1.44,从航空制造水平来讲，我比较欣赏，不过还不至于让在打仗的时候尿裤子


it's not that, it's just I've heard all this B.S. so many times before it really gets tiring. The USAF, no doubt, has plenty of info about this aircraft and the PAK-FA and I'm sure they're quite familiar with what it's performance will be. There isn't another country around that can match our engine technology, except maybe in Europe, and none that match our electronic capabilites, except in some instances, Israel. I would say the greatest threat we probably face is from cheap EM pulse weapons.

我之前听了很多胡说八道……美国空军司令部，毫无疑问，应该已经足够掌握了这架飞机的性能，同时也包括俄罗斯的5代，我不相信还有其他国家可能与我们的引擎技术，相媲美，除了欧洲，并且也不可能和我们的电子系统相媲美，除了以色列，我还不如说真正对我们有所威胁的是各种廉价的电磁脉冲弹

I wouldn't be quite so dismissive. A decade ago, China was just flying the J-10. Before that, the only fighters of indigenous design were the J-8, which looked like a late-1950s MiG, and the JH-7 Jaguar-on-steroids. That's pretty rapid progress.

我可不敢那么轻易断言，10年前，中国还只是在飞j-10,在这之前，能看上眼的就只有J-8，而且看起来像50年代的米格和JH-7猎豹。看起来进展神速

Why do the fanboys keep trumping up this as a threat to us? It might be a threat if China ramps up production and sells it to every Tom, Dick, and Middle East Harry. But its certainly not a threat from China. They own how many trillion dollars of our national debt? So you have to figure any conflict with us has to be a money maker to the tune of 8-10 TRILLION$ to really make it worth it.

Really, would you go and attack somebody that owes you trillions of dollars- and is paying up like a good boy?

我真想不通上面几个小子一直坚称这是对我们的威胁，除非中国正式投产并且把他们卖给邪恶国家，不过这跟中国威胁美国毫无关系，他们拿着我们上万亿的国债，他们应该清楚一打仗，这些钱就被一笔勾销。说实话，你觉得你会攻击一个欠了钱的人么？而且将来他有可能要还钱的

Laugh all you want, I'll take the diapers.    Perhaps some pilots would better get some too. Just in case some Western military/political decision-makers regard their military assets as the eternal unbeatable and underestimate potential opponents' (c)a(pa)bilities or advancement.

"Cancellation of F-22? Russian and Chinese double-engined heavy stealth fighters showing up? Don't worry 'bout that, these are much inferior to ours. And like us, they won't be able to afford their aircraft. So let's downsize and cancel some more of our projects. China's giant economy is about to collapse anyway. And after all, soon we'll have plenty of our one and only true 5th-G fighter, the omnipotent F-35."  
Weren't during the 80's the teen-fighters also considered far superior and invincible? Till the MiG-29 & Su-27 with HMS/R-73 showed up, IIRC.

To me, dismissive thinking about (military) development and expansion in Asia is comparable in a way to what people thought about German and Japanese (military) development/expansion some 70 years ago. Any possible offensive intentions were laughed away then too. China has no regime comparable to the Nazis and probably has no hostile intentions, but offensive thoughts could allways pop-up during the next decade(s), and as history proves one is better prepared for such eventualities. Better over-estimate the other one then underestimate him, IMHO.

随你们怎么笑，我会去领尿片的，或许某些驾驶员也该领领。想象一下某些西方军事专家和政客整天鼓出他们是多么先进和不可战胜的
“取消生产F-22?中国和俄罗斯双引擎战机出炉？不要担心，他们比我们不堪一击，他们负担不起那么多的战机，就让我们缩小和取消生产规模。中国的庞大经济应该马上就要崩溃了。总之，我们很快就会有一个世界独一无二的五代战机，f-35"

对于我来说，任何错判亚洲军事发展和扩张的思维就跟70年前错判日本和德国不会扩张一样天真。任何攻击意图也会被耻笑，中国还没有比拟于纳粹的政权或许也没有恶意，不过充满攻击性的想法总会在未来几十年复燃的，历史一再验证了永远不要低估，时刻最好准备

It is true that conflict is not an impossibility but our two nations are deeply in bed together. They cant stop manufacturing consumer electronics no more than we can stop using them for production. Apple would go out of business if their Chinese plants shut down. If somebody invents the technology that would allow us to stop using them for manufacturing, well, then we might have a problem on our hands. Until then its all armchair ideology....

不可否认，任何潜在冲突不会发生，不过中美的关系很特殊。中国不可能放弃生产大量的电子设备，美国不可能停止消费大量的电子设备。如果中国的工厂被关闭，苹果会直接破产的。如果有人发明了智能工厂，那就只是我们的问题了。否则一切都是浮云

No extensive imagination needed. USA will bankrupt, all the US dollars became only a pieces of paper and they will be forced to create the Amero:  But we should leave this wild speculations and concentrate much on the aviation rather than politics.

China needs the 5th generation fighter, capable to attack/defend the future threats. That's for sure, no matter about the scenario. If it is this thing on the runway, we will see.

不用再想了，美国马上会破产的。美元会一夜之间成为废纸，然后会诞生了一个“北美币”，我们应该多关注航空方面，放弃对政治的幻想。
中国需要第五代战机，并且能够袭击和防卫于各种威胁。这是肯定的

The F-35 is not exactly the benchmark that I would be holding up as an example of good fighter program!  

A nation that can build the first the worlds fastest supercomputer, has matched the US in number of space launches in 2010, and now has the first operational ASBM carrier killing missile system is quite capable of building 5th gen fighters if given enough time and money (which they have).

其实F-35真得不算什么，如果我能有更多更好的设计方案

一个能够生产世界第一个快的超级电脑，并且在2010发射了与美国相当的太空任务，并且还有航母毁灭系统的国家，建造一个五代机没什么难的。只要他们有钱和时间（他们两个都有）

Please don’t waste our time with foolish muck raking. The time and cost figures I quoted were WITHOUT taking into account the comparatively minor (as a proportion of overall measure) schedule delays and cost over-runs of the project so your argument doesn’t apply.

However it’s quite clear you are one of those ‘Up with F-22, Down with F-35’ cheerleaders. So to transform this argument into one in which you have less emotional reason for trying to breakdown lets look at a similar analysis of the F-22.

For the ATF Demonstration-Validation phase Lockheed and Boeing need 700 million dollars and four years to build and fly the first YF-22A. The contract for actual F-22As (EMD Phase) was 10 billion dollars, later increased to almost 19 billion dollars, and needed 10 years to fly the first mission capable F-22A. So roughly comparable cost and schedule defences between demonstrator and mission capable aircraft for BOTH the YF-22A/F-22A and X-35/F-35.

The difference between developing and building the prototype 5th generation fighter demonstrator and the real thing based on the experience of the F-22 and F-35 is about 2.5 to 1 for schedule and 25 to 1 for cost. Congratulations to Russia (PAK FA) and perhaps sometime soon for China for building their 5th generation demonstrator they now have to do at least 25 times as much work to fly the real thing.

楼上的请不要浪费时间说些不着边际的话，时间和金钱基本上比不上项目编排和工作时效的重要性。
我感觉你就是那种“f-22万能，F-35不能”的优越帝，所以请能不能不要那么感情化地讨论关于F-22的问题
atf和波音花了7亿美金和四年打造了第一架YF-22A， 而f-22As的合同高达100亿美金，之后达到了190亿，而且花了10年才打造出来。所以几乎和X-35等机型相差无几。
唯一的不同是，研发和制造第五代战机的模型和样机可以根据这样的性价比算，F-22是2.5:1, F-35是25:1, 祝贺俄罗斯和即将曝光的中国研发出第五代的模型，现在他们要花费25倍的警力让他飞起来。

What about how many gold medals they won at the Olympics? Because that is about as useless a benchmark as those you have given. There is only one benchmark for building 5th generation fighters: building 5th generation fighters. How many high quality civil airliners, software-defined radios and advanced lightweight composite surfboards you may produce is not an adequate benchmark.

Besides China has an operational anti ship ballistic missile? Really… terminal guidance and everything? I doubt that. As to it being a carrier killer obviously never heard of AEGIS Ballistic Missile Defence…

奥运会拿了多少金牌和研发战机有关系么？唯一关乎于第五代战机的条件就是制造第五代战机的能力。中国真得有反舰导弹马？是卫星定位吗？我怀疑，我从来没听过什么弹道导弹防御系统可以击沉航母

Supposed Clinton era B-2 and missile tech and Obama F-35  (technology for cash) transfers to China. And even some during the Bush Admin.

Its seems like someone is trying to start a new cold war with the Chinese. How the hell did they make so much damn progress so damn fast? they got outside help thats how!!

我猜克林顿时代的B-2和导弹科技还有奥巴马时代的F-35(金钱换科技）科技都被转到了中国。布什时期也卖了

看起来某些人想引发一场对中国的全面冷战，否则他们怎么可能进步这么TM的快。他们肯定受到了外面的帮助

Outside help..Sort of... Break in Boeings and Lockheed Martins and Northrop Grumman network and use some Chinese trainees and students and you can make a jump start..
But to build an airframe is something different than making it work...
Their PR machine is good. It is just as BMW and other brands are doing. A sneak preview. Another small picture. A test on the Nurnburgring etc. Warming up the public.
We are strong....is the message but the finishing touch is a precise one..
It is definitely getting more interesting this way

外界的帮助？有可能，想象每年波音这样的公司都会有很多的中国实习生，这毫无疑问帮助了中国的跳跃式发展。不过建造一架飞机和让飞机飞起来还是不同的。
有可能是中国的公关手段？又抱琵琶半遮面？

Things move quick when a new prototype is unveiled. I think it’s pretty safe to say that this is a real plane with the reports now coming out of China. Yet there is still a long, long way to march before this can be considered a 5th generation aircraft to rival the F-35 or F-22.

照片暂时出来了，我想可以可靠地宣布这架飞机的真实存在，而且中国的报道也多了。虽然还有可能跟F-35或者F-22差得非常远


this is a littelbit off topic about J-20, more about the reaction in Post

i notice some odd reaction
first the "Wat China has the Technolgy ?!"  

有点脱离主题，不过我看到这个帖子里有很多有趣的反应

比如有一堆是“什么？？中国还有科技”（此人放了一张旧中国和新中国的对比图）

OMG fraction with "China got J-20, we need more F-22 or better the six Generation Fighter"
for now the J-20 has to make it maidenflight, F-22 made his first flight 20 years ago !
there no guarantee that J-20 perform better as F-22, or worse...
The US don't need more F-22, but the F-35 Navy Fighter fast!
because the Pacific US carrierfleet will the first who gonna have contact with J-20...

然后另一堆是“完了！完了！我们需要更多的f-22战机”。不管怎么说，F-22是20年前就已经首飞了，还没有证据能说明j-20就比F-22好到哪？不过美国确实应该加速f-35的部署，因为太平洋舰队将是第一个面对J20的进攻

Fascinating what a meritocracy, a liberal supply of cash and healthy dose of industrial espionage can achieve. Go China.

这年头一个精英领导班子，一大堆钱，还有一个扎实工业基础就能创造出这样一个奇迹，加油中国

I never suggested that the Chinese simply stole this design from someone's hard-drive.
My point exactly, Chinese labs have almost certainly had an infusion of external technology that would have supported some of the development that went on here, either directly or indirectly, and I dont regard it as an unkind suggestion. In fact I admire the ruthlessness with which China has gone about acquiring military technology, it appears to have been more productive than the Indian model.

我从没有指责中国是抄袭谁谁的设计。我的观点是，中国的实验室肯定借鉴了已有设计并且优化了这一设计。要么直接要么间接。我不觉得这是弱点，其实我很佩服中国对军事科技的钻研能力，这比印度的效率要高很多

The Chinese have been burdened with the nightmare of Communism since the late 1940's, and with a stifling, stagmant  imperial system before that. But in the last 20 years they've introduced a *lot* of economic freedoms... still well under the thumb of the government, but they are discovering the wonders of capitalism. The Chinese are finding that a free enterprise system is the way to go if you want to make advancements. So, even they they are "less free" than the West... they are trending upwards, while the West is trending downwards in that respect. So it's hardly surprising that their technology base is booming while we're in decline.

If the West had any smarts, we'd take a lesson from the Chinese. And that lesson comes in two parts:
1) Increase economic freedom
2) Decrease the governmental burden

And to make *real* progress, there'd be a third component:

3) Put the bureaucrats against the wall.

中国在1940年一直是闭关锁国和遭受了文革动乱的劫难。不过20年前，他们引入了自由经济的概念，并且由一个统一政府监管。他们极有效地发挥了资本主义的优势，中国发现自主创新是唯一的出路，虽然他们比起西方还不是太自由，不过总体而言他们是向上走的，而西方却是向下走的，所以我一点对他们的科技进步不感到惊奇。
如果西方聪明一点的话，应该从中国学到点东西。
1）增加自由经济
2）消除政府监管
最有用的
3）把那些官僚清理出去


If the South Koreans or the Germans or the Japanese had a serious shot at building a stealthy jet, there's no reason in the world to expect that the Chinese - who, after all, have built H-bombs and launched humans into orbit - could not do so. But there's also no reason in the world to expect that the design is a real world-beater in that regard, either.

如果韩国，德国和日本能够建造隐形战绩，那么中国有一个拥有氢弹和把人送上太空的国家，怎么不可以呢？而且有可能还是世界顶级的……

Wow, well this is likely to accelerate South Korea's and Japan's programs.

哇！估计南韩和日本要马上努力了

This "mediocre" aircraft is probably a lot more capable than YOU think. And China is a master at taking "products" and producing them cheaply. The US will probably be buying its stealth fighters from China like everything else, including semiconductors and food. I don't see how it is cost effective to make just about anything in the US anymore. Didn't Boeing move a factory to China?  Apart from being consumers of products it seems the USA is becoming "irrelevant" at least economically, soon it will be militarily as well. Go ahead and scoff at this "mediocre" fighter but do so at you're own peril.

这一架你们眼中的“中等机” 可能比你们想象的还要优秀。中国是一个能够生产成本成功降低的国家，美国有可能还会从中国买来这玩意儿，就像我们买他们的半导体和食品。我真得不认为美国还能便宜地生产什么，波音不是已经把工厂迁到中国了么。除了消费以外，美国越来越和实体经济脱节了。很快我们军事也会是这样，到时候你哭都来不及



暂时就这么多。我挑的。基本上我上的论坛，英美为主/。理性的特别多，比起啊三日本完全高了很多档次。不过主要问题还是在发动机和相关细节。期待首飞