美学者：金正日交班难成功

<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 26.1pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 19pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 13.05pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">【韩国联合通讯社</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">05日</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">消息】</span></b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">美国陆军大学战略问题研究所教授史考贝尔指出，朝鲜最高领导人</span><shapetype id="_x0000_t75" stroked="f" filled="f" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" opreferrelative="t" ospt="75" coordsize="21600,21600"><font face="Times New Roman"> <stroke joinstyle="miter"></stroke><formulas><f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></f><f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></f><f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></f><f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></f><f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></f><f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></f><f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></f><f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></f><f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></f><f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></f><f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></f><f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></f></formulas><path gradientshapeok="t"></path><lock aspectratio="t" vext="edit"></lock></font></shapetype><shape id="_x0000_s1026" oallowoverlap="f" type="#_x0000_t75" style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; Z-INDEX: 1; LEFT: 0px; MARGIN-LEFT: 0px; WIDTH: 150.75pt; POSITION: absolute; HEIGHT: 111.95pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-position-horizontal: left; mso-position-horizontal-relative: text; mso-position-vertical: top; mso-position-vertical-relative: line;"><imagedata otitle="image023" src="file:///C:/DOCUME~1/ADMINI~1/LOCALS~1/Temp/msoclip1/07/clip_image001.jpg"></imagedata><wrap type="square"></wrap></shape><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">金正日最多只有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">15</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年的时间培养儿子成为接班人，今后</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年的时间将成为左右金正日政权命运的关键时刻。他认为，朝鲜想再以世袭方式进行权力交接，成功的可能性较小。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 26pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 19pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 13.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">史考贝尔不久前发表的“金正日与朝鲜”论文指出，朝鲜面临的最大挑战是接班人问题，从中国国家主席胡锦涛去年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">月访问朝鲜时，金正日引荐次子金正哲的动作来看，朝鲜正在倾力培养接班人。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 26pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 19pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 13.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">史考贝尔表示，如果金正日在世的时间足够长，接班人问题可能会取得成功；但即使是像朝鲜这样极权主义的国家，再次以家族世袭方式且取得成功的可能性也比较小。史考贝尔预测，如果金正日在继承人问题上失败，在今后某个时期，朝鲜的极权体制势将崩溃，或者是演变成“后极权体制”。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 26pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 19pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 13.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">史考贝尔认为，金正日目前的地位非常稳固，没有被颠覆的危机。但由于不断动员人力和资源，数十年实行严重增加国家和社会负担的极权主义，领导层和平民都处于疲惫状态。同时，国家下层结构及资源也处于荒废枯竭的地步。史考贝尔指出，正是这种“疲惫”与“枯竭”，朝鲜国内不仅没有叛乱，甚至连抗议和反对都没有，多数平民因过度疲惫，要求仅停留在满足基本需求上。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 26.1pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 19pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 13.05pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">【韩国联合通讯社</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">05日</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">消息】</span></b><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">美国陆军大学战略问题研究所教授史考贝尔指出，朝鲜最高领导人</span><shapetype id="_x0000_t75" stroked="f" filled="f" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" opreferrelative="t" ospt="75" coordsize="21600,21600"><font face="Times New Roman"> <stroke joinstyle="miter"></stroke><formulas><f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"></f><f eqn="sum @0 1 0"></f><f eqn="sum 0 0 @1"></f><f eqn="prod @2 1 2"></f><f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"></f><f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"></f><f eqn="sum @0 0 1"></f><f eqn="prod @6 1 2"></f><f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth"></f><f eqn="sum @8 21600 0"></f><f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight"></f><f eqn="sum @10 21600 0"></f></formulas><path gradientshapeok="t"></path><lock aspectratio="t" vext="edit"></lock></font></shapetype><shape id="_x0000_s1026" oallowoverlap="f" type="#_x0000_t75" style="MARGIN-TOP: 0px; Z-INDEX: 1; LEFT: 0px; MARGIN-LEFT: 0px; WIDTH: 150.75pt; POSITION: absolute; HEIGHT: 111.95pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-position-horizontal: left; mso-position-horizontal-relative: text; mso-position-vertical: top; mso-position-vertical-relative: line;"><imagedata otitle="image023" src="file:///C:/DOCUME~1/ADMINI~1/LOCALS~1/Temp/msoclip1/07/clip_image001.jpg"></imagedata><wrap type="square"></wrap></shape><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">金正日最多只有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">至</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">15</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年的时间培养儿子成为接班人，今后</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">年的时间将成为左右金正日政权命运的关键时刻。他认为，朝鲜想再以世袭方式进行权力交接，成功的可能性较小。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 26pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 19pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 13.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">史考贝尔不久前发表的“金正日与朝鲜”论文指出，朝鲜面临的最大挑战是接班人问题，从中国国家主席胡锦涛去年</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt;"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">月访问朝鲜时，金正日引荐次子金正哲的动作来看，朝鲜正在倾力培养接班人。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 26pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 19pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 13.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">史考贝尔表示，如果金正日在世的时间足够长，接班人问题可能会取得成功；但即使是像朝鲜这样极权主义的国家，再次以家族世袭方式且取得成功的可能性也比较小。史考贝尔预测，如果金正日在继承人问题上失败，在今后某个时期，朝鲜的极权体制势将崩溃，或者是演变成“后极权体制”。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 26pt; LINE-HEIGHT: 19pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0; mso-char-indent-size: 13.0pt; mso-line-height-rule: exactly;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">史考贝尔认为，金正日目前的地位非常稳固，没有被颠覆的危机。但由于不断动员人力和资源，数十年实行严重增加国家和社会负担的极权主义，领导层和平民都处于疲惫状态。同时，国家下层结构及资源也处于荒废枯竭的地步。史考贝尔指出，正是这种“疲惫”与“枯竭”，朝鲜国内不仅没有叛乱，甚至连抗议和反对都没有，多数平民因过度疲惫，要求仅停留在满足基本需求上。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; LETTER-SPACING: 0.5pt;"><p></p></span></p>