所谓的DF洗地无法有效压制关岛 冲绳 等等岛链上的美军基 ...

Guam central to Pacific military operations

By Paul C. Barton - Gannett Washington Bureau
Posted : Wednesday Oct 19, 2011 18:37:58 EDT

WASHINGTON — Among the news media tracking the U.S. military buildup on Guam is the People’s Daily Online, an organ of the Chinese Communist Party in Beijing.

On its “People Forum” earlier this month was a discussion of how facilities at Andersen Air Force Base on the island were being hardened and air defense systems were being moved in to protect against Chinese attack.

“The American island of Guam is getting bomb proof shelters for aircraft, fuel and ammo supplies and vital equipment,” said one entry, which also pictured American B-52s sitting on a runway.关岛的重要设施都针对防御导弹空袭投入了天价进行了加固

Guam would be central to American operations if the United States and China go to war because of miscalculations by either regarding Taiwan, developments on the Korean peninsula or access to the South China Sea, many defense and foreign analysts say.

“In the event of a conflict with (China), the United States will find a large portion of its relevant force structure located on Guam,” said a May 2009 paper from the Naval War College in Rhode Island.

The South China Sea is the newest flashpoint in Sino-American relations that could cause both countries to “stumble” into a war if not careful, said John Pike, a defense and military expert who runs the website GlobalSecurity.org.

As the world’s two largest economies and monumental trading partners, the incentives for the United States and China to avoid conflict remain considerable.

But there is no doubting a new bellicosity on China’s part, experts say.

Earlier this month, for instance, The Global Times, another publication of the Chinese Communist Party, declared: “The time to use force has arrived in the South China Sea. Let’s wage wars on the Philippines and Vietnam to avoid more wars.”

It was a reference to its recent spats with those countries over rights to develop the South China Sea’s oil and mineral resources, which are considered substantial.

And if an American company, such as ExxonMobil, were to announce new oil finds there, the Chinese “would not be happy,” said Joshua Kurlantzick of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Indeed, the Global Times said a war would turn existing oil wells “into a sea of fire” and “Western oil companies will flee the area.”

The Chinese, claiming historical precedents dating back centuries, have declared the South China Sea largely their own. They claim an area stretching 1,000 miles from their southernmost borders as an “exclusive economic zone.”

Under international law, nations are supposed to claim no more than 200 miles out as exclusive economic zone, meaning they have sole rights to resources within that domain.

China is also declaring its exclusive economic zone to be sovereign territory, meaning other nations would have to request permission to enter it.

The United States, led by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, has been adamant in saying it won’t accept China’s sovereignty claims. Sovereign waters under international law are limited to 12 miles.

“The Chinese are clearly feeling their oats. There is always the danger they become too pushy,” said Ted Carpenter, defense expert at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank. “Their territorial claims in the South China Sea are breathtakingly bold.”

While China eyes the resources in the region, the South China Sea has been called the “world’s highway” because of the amount of shipping from all nations that goes through it.

Pike calls the Chinese claims “insane.” He said they are declaring they will operate under “a different set of rules” than the rest of the world.” He said the United States, which regards freedom of navigation in international waters as sacrosanct, could only agree to such claims at its peril.

“If we do that, we might as well bottle up the U.S. Navy in the Gulf of Mexico,” he said.

“I think it (the South China Sea) is our best chance to go toe to toe with the Red Chinese.”

For the United States under such a scenario, Pike added: “Guam is a front-row seat. It is essential.”

Similarly, Thomas Mahnken of the Naval War College said, “Guam is occupying an increasingly important role for the United States.’“

And Carpenter called it “a major (U.S.) military citadel” in the Western Pacific.

While most of the recent focus on Guam has involved the transfer of at least 8,000 Marines from Okinawa by 2014, the island’s air base and naval facilities figure evermore prominently in Pentagon moves to counter China’s growing threat to U.S. military hegemony in the Western Pacific, various defense studies and publications say.

“Guam plays a critical role in the maintaining stability in the Asia-Pacific region. All the proposed realignments and investments in military infrastructure on Guam will help ensure that our Armed Forces are appropriately postured to respond to a variety of interests in our region,” Del. Madeleine Bordallo of Guam said in a statement.

The Government Accountability Office, a research arm of Congress, said in June the buildup of all facilities is projected to cost $7.5 billion by 2016. As part of an agreement with Japan to move the Marines off Okinawa, the Japanese are providing another $6 billion, plus $3.2 billion in loans.

The GAO also said the Air Force would have additional construction costs — for a “Guam Strike Initiative” — that would extend beyond 2016 that are not included in the $7.5 billion. The initiative involves developing a global hub for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, strike, and aerial refueling at Andersen Air Force Base.

In addition to strengthening defenses at Andersen, the U.S. has been moving B-2 Stealth bombers and drones to the island and making it a home for nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers.

By the 2020s, the Defense Department hopes to have a new generation of stealth bombers to penetrate Chinese airspace. They would also be able to control drones.(AT)

Air Force Magazine earlier this year described the Guam buildup as part of the U.S. “positioning forces which could threaten China’s supply lines through the South China Sea. The oil and raw materials transported through those shipping lanes are crucial to a surging Chinese economy — an economy paying for Beijing’s swiftly expanding military power.”

The magazine added: “The pivot point of this emerging strategy is Guam, the U.S. territory in the central Pacific within striking distance of the South China Sea. The island is also 1,800 miles from the coast of China, and therefore, within range of Chinese missiles. Asked why the U.S. was expanding Andersen Air Force Base and other bases on Guam, sites that could be hit by intermediate-range ballistic missiles, a senior U.S. officer replied, ‘The message to China is that we are here and we mean to stay.’“

A Congressional Research Service report in September said the Chinese “civilian and military commentators commonly have suspected that the U.S. defense buildup on Guam partly has been aimed at China.”

In recent years, China has routinely dispatched submarines near Guam to show the U.S. Navy it cannot regard the island as a sanctuary, according to numerous accounts in the U.S. and foreign press, as well as defense journals.

In the event of a U.S.-China conflict, it would be essential for U.S. ships, including those possibly carrying Marines, to quickly depart the U.S. naval base at Apra Harbor, said a 2009 report from the Naval War College that discussed Guam’s vulnerabilities.

“Guam’s single harbor provides a hostile submarine force with a tradition of unconventional tactics an opportunity to transform Apra Harbor into a critical vulnerability that can be exploited to indirectly attack United States forces located there,” it said.

Military history shows how surprise attacks by submarines can bottle up forces in such a base, the paper added.

And Guam’s vulnerability to Chinese missiles was highlighted in an August Department of Defense report. On page 31 is a multicolored map that shows targets within reach of Chinese weapons. Guam is shown as within range of China’s CSS-2 这玩意貌似是DF15ballistic missiles and B-6 bombers with land-attack cruise missiles.

The Department of Defense report also shows how China regards Guam as a part of the outmost of two island chains in the Western Pacific that it considers extensions of the Chinese landmass even though it is a U.S. territory. Other parts of the chain include the Northern Mariannas, Palau and Iwo Jima.

The ultimate aim of the Chinese is to project power past both island chains and have the capability to deny the United States access within them if need be, many defense and foreign policy journals report. The new Chinese J-20 stealth fighter, a prototype of which was unveiled this year, is seen as part of that strategy, although the Defense Department estimates the plane will not obtain “operational capability” until 2018.
这里顺便吐槽j20在2018年之前他们不认为会有作战能力

But such timetables regarding the Chinese have often proven wrong in the past.

“The Chinese military has moved forward faster than we’ve expected,” Mahnken said.

http://www.marinecorpstimes.com/ ... -operations-101911/

DF洗地？


关于快速跑道维修自己去看这个吧 美帝自己对于这一块的探索是非常多的 论文很长就不贴上来了 虽然我也只看了一点点了
http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a467547.pdf

我的观点就是依靠DF进行第一轮第二轮第N轮袭击根本就不会对关岛基地造成很大的损伤 无法压制关岛基地的功能
对于关岛永固公式修到了什么程度 大家可以去查一下卫星照片  我这里贴一张比较有代表性的 在最后

至于油库弹药库 我相信这些都是在地下掩体里的

这种程度的掩体能够抗损到什么程度大家可以从一些战例里边去寻找
再之， 这种掩体本身就是量身为东风导弹设计的 我认为完全抗击几枚DF导弹的直接命中是问题不大的 因为DF导弹的装药量 如果是常规弹头 毁伤能力能比二战一千磅的航空炸弹的效果好 就已经很不错了 但是二战的时候 这种炸弹对于永固工事的作用就很有限
对于今天这种更加先进 用更好的结构 更坚硬的水泥搭建而成的永固工事 能够达到怎么样的效果 还相当的值得讨论

对于防空设施的破坏

美军的要地防空 基本是由爱国者2 爱国者3 组成的
这种型号的导弹是怎么工作的我觉得我也不用科普了
总之结论是无法用弹道导弹有效的破坏这种可以大量部署且机动的防空系统

海上的宙斯盾舰也可以起到雷达哨舰的作用  而且宙斯盾系统本身也是一个非常强大的 防御半径非常大的系统

综上所述 DF对于机库 油库  弹药库 还有指挥中心 防空设施这些的破坏能力都很有限

DF能够有效打击的就只有塔台 和 跑道
但是一个失去塔台的机场 仍然是能够发挥作用的 但是指挥效率会降低  而且塔台被毁灭之后的预案我相信美军肯定是有的 这种可以影响机场调度效率的时间 我相信也是很有限的。




一个机场打掉了跑道确实会失去功能， 但是关岛的跑道是非常长的.
关岛基地两条跑道 未来会扩建第三条 都长达3500米

而F22的最短起飞距离只有480米 最短降落距离甚至只有200米 我就假设这个480米是半油空载的时候 满载起飞我就给他算1000米

按照现代的对于机场攻击的成熟理论， 对于跑道的有效攻击 就是把跑道切割成这个机场的主要威胁机型无法起飞的长度
所以我们就用这个480米来算
我们需要多少枚准确命中的DF 才能有效的切割现在这两条 以后三条的长达3500米的跑道 成每一截都小于1000的米的一截一截的？
需要8枚吧
未来三条跑道的时候需要12枚？
这还是能够准确命中的情况

而且这也只能仅仅瘫痪关岛安德森基地 机场这一个职能很短的一个时间 以美军的效率 从我贴的那个论文里边看 六个小时左右
并不能瘫痪基地的防空 以及海上的前出防空的舰队 无法达到为长剑飞豹开路的作用

至于有人提过的300战斧的打法
我只能说这个情况不是很相同

J贵宾说的300战斧是从台湾 或者台湾南边的潜艇里 打台湾海峡里边的登陆舰 这些巡航导弹从台湾的朝大陆一遍的海滩开始 才是解放军的有效拦截范围 台湾海峡是非常窄的  对于巡航导弹的速度 这个拦截的窗口是相对很小的

但是如果用这种打法去打关岛 首先我们没有有效的投送手段 H6就算没有美国空军 海军的干扰 随便让他丢导弹 以我们轰炸机的数量 也是很难达到用ohio潜艇来一直垂发巡航导弹的密度的

再者 这个导弹准确的说 包括载机在内， 如果美国不想让冲突升级 或者说比较保守， 一旦出了大陆S300或者hq9的射程范围， 都是美军可以拦截的窗口 这个窗口时间和登陆台湾攻击登陆舰的窗口时间比 那就是非常的充裕的了。 再加上巡航导弹的装药量很有限 就算命中了也不能有效的对基地造成严重的破坏。

就算我们用所谓的反跑道战斗部 由于DF是弹道导弹只能攻顶 所以是不能像一般的反跑道弹药那样抛洒战斗部的 巡航导弹的反跑道战斗部倒是有一定的可能性能够成功的抛洒出去， 但是巡航导弹在美国标准2 爱国者3 以及近距的复仇者 密集阵 甚至激光系统的拦截下 生存率很是问题。 而且我们也相当的缺乏巡航导弹的投送手段。

所以这个需要的准确命中的数量仍然很惊人 才能有效瘫痪关岛安德森基地一段时间

这一段时间如果在实战当中运用得当确实能够帮助我们在海上取得一定的战术优势
但是这同样也是非常困难的

df21精度根据我的背景知识 在最乐观的情况下 能够达到50米， 但是鉴于我上个贴里边即使是说成按精度20算都被喷成狗

那么接下来我就按照精度一米来算

就算我们的DF精度能够达到一米以内 仍然不能伤到关岛的重要目标

关岛的防空体系非常的健全 依靠DF是不可能全部摧毁的  除非我们持续不断的用DF准确的攻击安德森基地的三根相同长度的跑道 而且能够准确的切割到需要的长度 不然我们是很难压制住这个基地的功能的
依靠飞豹 H6这些要去冲别人由宙斯盾 爱国者3 甚至F22 F35构建起来的防空网络是非常的不现实的

而且我的理论都还是DF的精度高达指哪里打哪里的水平 实际上能够达到一个怎样的精度目前还很难说

就算DF能够打掉关岛的爱国者3  能够成功的切割跑道长度到F22或者其他F16 F15都无法起飞的长度 海面上仍然可以有航母战斗群为其撑起坚固的防空网 而且这都是后话了 我自己的观点是关岛安德森基地在目前的兵力技术水平下是无法被DF有效的压制的。

反过来美国同样很难完全压制中国大陆本土上的军事基地
但是
美国关岛基地能够进攻中国部队的可能性目前就只有南海或者钓鱼岛

以目前的兵力技术水平
美军依靠其海面上航母战斗群的F18EF以及未来的F35 再加上关岛上的F22是能够对于解放军现在J10 J11 以及未来的SU35取得很大的战术优势的  也就是我们在目前的技术水平下 在美军面前 是难以为自己的海军撑起天空的 这样关岛基地的目的就达成了

关于这两个地区的争端 美军都是没有必要进攻本土大陆基地的 美军的战略目标就只是保护日军或者南海什么国家的军队去上岛就完了。

但是关于这个问题 我们如果无法压制美国的地面基地 让别人的F22以至于B2都能成功的介入战场的话
我们是很难在钓鱼岛或者南海什么地方取得战术优势 以及达到战略目标的
这些都说得过多了


我的论点就只有用DF是无法达到使关岛基地失去功能 或者达到为之后的飞豹H6 巡航导弹之类的开路的功能的


Guam central to Pacific military operations

By Paul C. Barton - Gannett Washington Bureau
Posted : Wednesday Oct 19, 2011 18:37:58 EDT

WASHINGTON — Among the news media tracking the U.S. military buildup on Guam is the People’s Daily Online, an organ of the Chinese Communist Party in Beijing.

On its “People Forum” earlier this month was a discussion of how facilities at Andersen Air Force Base on the island were being hardened and air defense systems were being moved in to protect against Chinese attack.

“The American island of Guam is getting bomb proof shelters for aircraft, fuel and ammo supplies and vital equipment,” said one entry, which also pictured American B-52s sitting on a runway.关岛的重要设施都针对防御导弹空袭投入了天价进行了加固

Guam would be central to American operations if the United States and China go to war because of miscalculations by either regarding Taiwan, developments on the Korean peninsula or access to the South China Sea, many defense and foreign analysts say.

“In the event of a conflict with (China), the United States will find a large portion of its relevant force structure located on Guam,” said a May 2009 paper from the Naval War College in Rhode Island.

The South China Sea is the newest flashpoint in Sino-American relations that could cause both countries to “stumble” into a war if not careful, said John Pike, a defense and military expert who runs the website GlobalSecurity.org.

As the world’s two largest economies and monumental trading partners, the incentives for the United States and China to avoid conflict remain considerable.

But there is no doubting a new bellicosity on China’s part, experts say.

Earlier this month, for instance, The Global Times, another publication of the Chinese Communist Party, declared: “The time to use force has arrived in the South China Sea. Let’s wage wars on the Philippines and Vietnam to avoid more wars.”

It was a reference to its recent spats with those countries over rights to develop the South China Sea’s oil and mineral resources, which are considered substantial.

And if an American company, such as ExxonMobil, were to announce new oil finds there, the Chinese “would not be happy,” said Joshua Kurlantzick of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Indeed, the Global Times said a war would turn existing oil wells “into a sea of fire” and “Western oil companies will flee the area.”

The Chinese, claiming historical precedents dating back centuries, have declared the South China Sea largely their own. They claim an area stretching 1,000 miles from their southernmost borders as an “exclusive economic zone.”

Under international law, nations are supposed to claim no more than 200 miles out as exclusive economic zone, meaning they have sole rights to resources within that domain.

China is also declaring its exclusive economic zone to be sovereign territory, meaning other nations would have to request permission to enter it.

The United States, led by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, has been adamant in saying it won’t accept China’s sovereignty claims. Sovereign waters under international law are limited to 12 miles.

“The Chinese are clearly feeling their oats. There is always the danger they become too pushy,” said Ted Carpenter, defense expert at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank. “Their territorial claims in the South China Sea are breathtakingly bold.”

While China eyes the resources in the region, the South China Sea has been called the “world’s highway” because of the amount of shipping from all nations that goes through it.

Pike calls the Chinese claims “insane.” He said they are declaring they will operate under “a different set of rules” than the rest of the world.” He said the United States, which regards freedom of navigation in international waters as sacrosanct, could only agree to such claims at its peril.

“If we do that, we might as well bottle up the U.S. Navy in the Gulf of Mexico,” he said.

“I think it (the South China Sea) is our best chance to go toe to toe with the Red Chinese.”

For the United States under such a scenario, Pike added: “Guam is a front-row seat. It is essential.”

Similarly, Thomas Mahnken of the Naval War College said, “Guam is occupying an increasingly important role for the United States.’“

And Carpenter called it “a major (U.S.) military citadel” in the Western Pacific.

While most of the recent focus on Guam has involved the transfer of at least 8,000 Marines from Okinawa by 2014, the island’s air base and naval facilities figure evermore prominently in Pentagon moves to counter China’s growing threat to U.S. military hegemony in the Western Pacific, various defense studies and publications say.

“Guam plays a critical role in the maintaining stability in the Asia-Pacific region. All the proposed realignments and investments in military infrastructure on Guam will help ensure that our Armed Forces are appropriately postured to respond to a variety of interests in our region,” Del. Madeleine Bordallo of Guam said in a statement.

The Government Accountability Office, a research arm of Congress, said in June the buildup of all facilities is projected to cost $7.5 billion by 2016. As part of an agreement with Japan to move the Marines off Okinawa, the Japanese are providing another $6 billion, plus $3.2 billion in loans.

The GAO also said the Air Force would have additional construction costs — for a “Guam Strike Initiative” — that would extend beyond 2016 that are not included in the $7.5 billion. The initiative involves developing a global hub for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, strike, and aerial refueling at Andersen Air Force Base.

In addition to strengthening defenses at Andersen, the U.S. has been moving B-2 Stealth bombers and drones to the island and making it a home for nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers.

By the 2020s, the Defense Department hopes to have a new generation of stealth bombers to penetrate Chinese airspace. They would also be able to control drones.(AT)

Air Force Magazine earlier this year described the Guam buildup as part of the U.S. “positioning forces which could threaten China’s supply lines through the South China Sea. The oil and raw materials transported through those shipping lanes are crucial to a surging Chinese economy — an economy paying for Beijing’s swiftly expanding military power.”

The magazine added: “The pivot point of this emerging strategy is Guam, the U.S. territory in the central Pacific within striking distance of the South China Sea. The island is also 1,800 miles from the coast of China, and therefore, within range of Chinese missiles. Asked why the U.S. was expanding Andersen Air Force Base and other bases on Guam, sites that could be hit by intermediate-range ballistic missiles, a senior U.S. officer replied, ‘The message to China is that we are here and we mean to stay.’“

A Congressional Research Service report in September said the Chinese “civilian and military commentators commonly have suspected that the U.S. defense buildup on Guam partly has been aimed at China.”

In recent years, China has routinely dispatched submarines near Guam to show the U.S. Navy it cannot regard the island as a sanctuary, according to numerous accounts in the U.S. and foreign press, as well as defense journals.

In the event of a U.S.-China conflict, it would be essential for U.S. ships, including those possibly carrying Marines, to quickly depart the U.S. naval base at Apra Harbor, said a 2009 report from the Naval War College that discussed Guam’s vulnerabilities.

“Guam’s single harbor provides a hostile submarine force with a tradition of unconventional tactics an opportunity to transform Apra Harbor into a critical vulnerability that can be exploited to indirectly attack United States forces located there,” it said.

Military history shows how surprise attacks by submarines can bottle up forces in such a base, the paper added.

And Guam’s vulnerability to Chinese missiles was highlighted in an August Department of Defense report. On page 31 is a multicolored map that shows targets within reach of Chinese weapons. Guam is shown as within range of China’s CSS-2 这玩意貌似是DF15ballistic missiles and B-6 bombers with land-attack cruise missiles.

The Department of Defense report also shows how China regards Guam as a part of the outmost of two island chains in the Western Pacific that it considers extensions of the Chinese landmass even though it is a U.S. territory. Other parts of the chain include the Northern Mariannas, Palau and Iwo Jima.

The ultimate aim of the Chinese is to project power past both island chains and have the capability to deny the United States access within them if need be, many defense and foreign policy journals report. The new Chinese J-20 stealth fighter, a prototype of which was unveiled this year, is seen as part of that strategy, although the Defense Department estimates the plane will not obtain “operational capability” until 2018.
这里顺便吐槽j20在2018年之前他们不认为会有作战能力

But such timetables regarding the Chinese have often proven wrong in the past.

“The Chinese military has moved forward faster than we’ve expected,” Mahnken said.

http://www.marinecorpstimes.com/ ... -operations-101911/

DF洗地？


关于快速跑道维修自己去看这个吧 美帝自己对于这一块的探索是非常多的 论文很长就不贴上来了 虽然我也只看了一点点了
http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a467547.pdf

我的观点就是依靠DF进行第一轮第二轮第N轮袭击根本就不会对关岛基地造成很大的损伤 无法压制关岛基地的功能
对于关岛永固公式修到了什么程度 大家可以去查一下卫星照片  我这里贴一张比较有代表性的 在最后

至于油库弹药库 我相信这些都是在地下掩体里的

这种程度的掩体能够抗损到什么程度大家可以从一些战例里边去寻找
再之， 这种掩体本身就是量身为东风导弹设计的 我认为完全抗击几枚DF导弹的直接命中是问题不大的 因为DF导弹的装药量 如果是常规弹头 毁伤能力能比二战一千磅的航空炸弹的效果好 就已经很不错了 但是二战的时候 这种炸弹对于永固工事的作用就很有限
对于今天这种更加先进 用更好的结构 更坚硬的水泥搭建而成的永固工事 能够达到怎么样的效果 还相当的值得讨论

对于防空设施的破坏

美军的要地防空 基本是由爱国者2 爱国者3 组成的
这种型号的导弹是怎么工作的我觉得我也不用科普了
总之结论是无法用弹道导弹有效的破坏这种可以大量部署且机动的防空系统

海上的宙斯盾舰也可以起到雷达哨舰的作用  而且宙斯盾系统本身也是一个非常强大的 防御半径非常大的系统

综上所述 DF对于机库 油库  弹药库 还有指挥中心 防空设施这些的破坏能力都很有限

DF能够有效打击的就只有塔台 和 跑道
但是一个失去塔台的机场 仍然是能够发挥作用的 但是指挥效率会降低  而且塔台被毁灭之后的预案我相信美军肯定是有的 这种可以影响机场调度效率的时间 我相信也是很有限的。




一个机场打掉了跑道确实会失去功能， 但是关岛的跑道是非常长的.
关岛基地两条跑道 未来会扩建第三条 都长达3500米

而F22的最短起飞距离只有480米 最短降落距离甚至只有200米 我就假设这个480米是半油空载的时候 满载起飞我就给他算1000米

按照现代的对于机场攻击的成熟理论， 对于跑道的有效攻击 就是把跑道切割成这个机场的主要威胁机型无法起飞的长度
所以我们就用这个480米来算
我们需要多少枚准确命中的DF 才能有效的切割现在这两条 以后三条的长达3500米的跑道 成每一截都小于1000的米的一截一截的？
需要8枚吧
未来三条跑道的时候需要12枚？
这还是能够准确命中的情况

而且这也只能仅仅瘫痪关岛安德森基地 机场这一个职能很短的一个时间 以美军的效率 从我贴的那个论文里边看 六个小时左右
并不能瘫痪基地的防空 以及海上的前出防空的舰队 无法达到为长剑飞豹开路的作用

至于有人提过的300战斧的打法
我只能说这个情况不是很相同

J贵宾说的300战斧是从台湾 或者台湾南边的潜艇里 打台湾海峡里边的登陆舰 这些巡航导弹从台湾的朝大陆一遍的海滩开始 才是解放军的有效拦截范围 台湾海峡是非常窄的  对于巡航导弹的速度 这个拦截的窗口是相对很小的

但是如果用这种打法去打关岛 首先我们没有有效的投送手段 H6就算没有美国空军 海军的干扰 随便让他丢导弹 以我们轰炸机的数量 也是很难达到用ohio潜艇来一直垂发巡航导弹的密度的

再者 这个导弹准确的说 包括载机在内， 如果美国不想让冲突升级 或者说比较保守， 一旦出了大陆S300或者hq9的射程范围， 都是美军可以拦截的窗口 这个窗口时间和登陆台湾攻击登陆舰的窗口时间比 那就是非常的充裕的了。 再加上巡航导弹的装药量很有限 就算命中了也不能有效的对基地造成严重的破坏。

就算我们用所谓的反跑道战斗部 由于DF是弹道导弹只能攻顶 所以是不能像一般的反跑道弹药那样抛洒战斗部的 巡航导弹的反跑道战斗部倒是有一定的可能性能够成功的抛洒出去， 但是巡航导弹在美国标准2 爱国者3 以及近距的复仇者 密集阵 甚至激光系统的拦截下 生存率很是问题。 而且我们也相当的缺乏巡航导弹的投送手段。

所以这个需要的准确命中的数量仍然很惊人 才能有效瘫痪关岛安德森基地一段时间

这一段时间如果在实战当中运用得当确实能够帮助我们在海上取得一定的战术优势
但是这同样也是非常困难的

df21精度根据我的背景知识 在最乐观的情况下 能够达到50米， 但是鉴于我上个贴里边即使是说成按精度20算都被喷成狗

那么接下来我就按照精度一米来算

就算我们的DF精度能够达到一米以内 仍然不能伤到关岛的重要目标

关岛的防空体系非常的健全 依靠DF是不可能全部摧毁的  除非我们持续不断的用DF准确的攻击安德森基地的三根相同长度的跑道 而且能够准确的切割到需要的长度 不然我们是很难压制住这个基地的功能的
依靠飞豹 H6这些要去冲别人由宙斯盾 爱国者3 甚至F22 F35构建起来的防空网络是非常的不现实的

而且我的理论都还是DF的精度高达指哪里打哪里的水平 实际上能够达到一个怎样的精度目前还很难说

就算DF能够打掉关岛的爱国者3  能够成功的切割跑道长度到F22或者其他F16 F15都无法起飞的长度 海面上仍然可以有航母战斗群为其撑起坚固的防空网 而且这都是后话了 我自己的观点是关岛安德森基地在目前的兵力技术水平下是无法被DF有效的压制的。

反过来美国同样很难完全压制中国大陆本土上的军事基地
但是
美国关岛基地能够进攻中国部队的可能性目前就只有南海或者钓鱼岛

以目前的兵力技术水平
美军依靠其海面上航母战斗群的F18EF以及未来的F35 再加上关岛上的F22是能够对于解放军现在J10 J11 以及未来的SU35取得很大的战术优势的  也就是我们在目前的技术水平下 在美军面前 是难以为自己的海军撑起天空的 这样关岛基地的目的就达成了

关于这两个地区的争端 美军都是没有必要进攻本土大陆基地的 美军的战略目标就只是保护日军或者南海什么国家的军队去上岛就完了。

但是关于这个问题 我们如果无法压制美国的地面基地 让别人的F22以至于B2都能成功的介入战场的话
我们是很难在钓鱼岛或者南海什么地方取得战术优势 以及达到战略目标的
这些都说得过多了


我的论点就只有用DF是无法达到使关岛基地失去功能 或者达到为之后的飞豹H6 巡航导弹之类的开路的功能的