谣言警报:某西方媒体宣称，伊朗将于二零一二年进行首次 ...

谣言警报:某西方媒体宣称，伊朗将于二零一二年进行首次核试爆

据某西方媒体十日报道宣称，伊朗将于二零一二年进行首次地下核试爆。伊朗准备在地下核试爆中使用的原子弹威力强大，梯恩梯（TNT）当量为一千吨。
上世纪八十年代，在遭到伊拉克的化学武器攻击之后，伊朗伊斯兰共和国重启了由伊朗最后一位国王首先开始的原子弹计划。尽管如此，来自各方的压力迫使伊朗首位最高领袖鲁霍拉·霍梅尼（Ruhollah Khomeini）放弃了该计划。但在一九八八年十月出现了重大转折，当时伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队发表了时任伊朗议长的阿克巴尼·哈什米·拉夫桑贾尼（Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani）建议制造原子弹的讲话。
阿富汗和伊拉克战事促使伊朗继续开展其核计划，因为伊朗政府担心，它将成为美国军队强制推行政权更迭的下一个目标。伊朗领导人先是看到朝鲜领导人金正日先发制人，向西方国家展示其核力量，现在他们又看到没有核弹的利比亚领导人卡扎菲遭到了北约的轰炸。因此，伊朗不顾国际制裁、设计独立国内离心机所造成的障碍和谨慎定位的外国计算机病毒，坚持要发展原子弹。

Iran plans one-kiloton underground nuclear test in 2012

debkafile's Iranian sources, Tehran is preparing an underground test of a one-kiloton nuclear device during 2012, much like the test carried out by North Korea in 2006. Underground facilities are under construction in great secrecy behind the noise and fury raised by the start of advanced uranium enrichment at Iran's fortified, subterranean Fordo site near Qom.
All the sanctions imposed so far for halting Iran's progress toward a nuclear weapon have had the reverse effect, stimulating rather than cooling its eagerness to acquire a bomb.

Yet, according to a scenario prepared by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) at Tel Aviv University for the day after an Iranian nuclear weapons test, Israel was resigned to a nuclear Iran and the US would offer Israel a defense pact while urging Israel not to retaliate.

As quoted by the London Times Monday, Jan. 1, INSS experts, headed by Gen. (ret.) Giora Eiland, a former head of Israel's National Security Council, deduced from a simulation study they staged last week that. Their conclusion is that neither the US nor Israel will use force to stop Iran's first nuclear test which they predicted would take place in January 2013.

Our Iranian sources stress, however, that Tehran does not intend to wait for the next swearing-in of a US president in January 2013, whether Barack Obama is returned for a second term or replaced by a Republican figure, before moving on to a nuclear test.

Iran's Islamist rulers have come to the conclusion from the Bush and Obama presidencies that America is a paper tiger and sure to shrink from attacking their nuclear program – especially while the West is sunk in profound economic distress.

debkafile's sources stress that both Tehran and the INSS are wrong: The Tel Aviv scenario is the work of a faction of retired Israeli security and intelligence bigwigs who, anxious to pull the Netanyahu government back from direct action against the Islamic Republic, have been lobbying for the proposition that Israel can live with a nuclear-armed Iran.
Our Washington sources confirm, however, that President Obama considers the risk of permitting a nuclear-armed Iran to be greater than the risks of military action.

Monday, Jan. 9, top administration officials said that developing a nuclear weapon would cross a red line and precipitate a US strike. US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta: "If Iran takes the step to develop a nuclear weapon or blocking the Strait of Hormuz, they're going to be stopped." He was repeating the warnings of the past month made by himself and Chairman of the Joint US Chiefs of Staff. Gen. Martin Dempsey.

As for Israel, Dennis Ross, until recently senior adviser to President Obama, reiterated in a Bloomberg interview on Jan. 10: "No one should doubt that President Barack Obama is prepared to use military force to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon if sanctions and diplomacy fail."
As for Israel, Ross said: "I wouldn't discount the possibility that the Israelis would act if they came to the conclusion that basically the world was prepared to live with Iran with nuclear weapons," he said. "They certainly have the capability by themselves to set back the Iranian nuclear program."

Israel's media screens and front pages are dominated these days by short-lived, parochial political sensations and devote few words to serious discourse on such weighty issues as Iran's nuclear threat.
This is a luxury that the US president cannot afford in an election year. Iran's acquisition of a nuclear bomb and conduct of a nuclear test would hurt his chances of a second term. The race is therefore on for an American strike to beat Iran's nuclear end game before the November 2012 presidential vote.

The INSS have also wrongly assessed Russia's response to an Iranian nuclear test as "to seek an alliance with the US to prevent nuclear proliferation in the region."
This fails to take into account that Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, running himself for a third term as president in March, has already committed Moscow to a new Middle East policy which hinges on support for a nuclear Iran and any other Middle East nation seeking a nuclear program. This is part of Russia's determined plan to trump America's Arab Spring card.

来源：
http://www.debka.com/article/21635/

{:soso__3360152837778432726_1:}

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只要伊朗伊斯兰共和国革命军卫队挖到两千五百米特深，就肯定能对付敌方的入侵威胁，
将把地下军事设施挖到四千米超深，伊朗伊斯兰共和国一定能取得胜利！
　　——伊朗伊斯兰共和国总统马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪内贾德

---

谣言警报:某西方媒体宣称，伊朗将于二零一二年进行首次核试爆

据某西方媒体十日报道宣称，伊朗将于二零一二年进行首次地下核试爆。伊朗准备在地下核试爆中使用的原子弹威力强大，梯恩梯（TNT）当量为一千吨。
上世纪八十年代，在遭到伊拉克的化学武器攻击之后，伊朗伊斯兰共和国重启了由伊朗最后一位国王首先开始的原子弹计划。尽管如此，来自各方的压力迫使伊朗首位最高领袖鲁霍拉·霍梅尼（Ruhollah Khomeini）放弃了该计划。但在一九八八年十月出现了重大转折，当时伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队发表了时任伊朗议长的阿克巴尼·哈什米·拉夫桑贾尼（Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani）建议制造原子弹的讲话。
阿富汗和伊拉克战事促使伊朗继续开展其核计划，因为伊朗政府担心，它将成为美国军队强制推行政权更迭的下一个目标。伊朗领导人先是看到朝鲜领导人金正日先发制人，向西方国家展示其核力量，现在他们又看到没有核弹的利比亚领导人卡扎菲遭到了北约的轰炸。因此，伊朗不顾国际制裁、设计独立国内离心机所造成的障碍和谨慎定位的外国计算机病毒，坚持要发展原子弹。

Iran plans one-kiloton underground nuclear test in 2012

debkafile's Iranian sources, Tehran is preparing an underground test of a one-kiloton nuclear device during 2012, much like the test carried out by North Korea in 2006. Underground facilities are under construction in great secrecy behind the noise and fury raised by the start of advanced uranium enrichment at Iran's fortified, subterranean Fordo site near Qom.
All the sanctions imposed so far for halting Iran's progress toward a nuclear weapon have had the reverse effect, stimulating rather than cooling its eagerness to acquire a bomb.

Yet, according to a scenario prepared by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) at Tel Aviv University for the day after an Iranian nuclear weapons test, Israel was resigned to a nuclear Iran and the US would offer Israel a defense pact while urging Israel not to retaliate.

As quoted by the London Times Monday, Jan. 1, INSS experts, headed by Gen. (ret.) Giora Eiland, a former head of Israel's National Security Council, deduced from a simulation study they staged last week that. Their conclusion is that neither the US nor Israel will use force to stop Iran's first nuclear test which they predicted would take place in January 2013.

Our Iranian sources stress, however, that Tehran does not intend to wait for the next swearing-in of a US president in January 2013, whether Barack Obama is returned for a second term or replaced by a Republican figure, before moving on to a nuclear test.

Iran's Islamist rulers have come to the conclusion from the Bush and Obama presidencies that America is a paper tiger and sure to shrink from attacking their nuclear program – especially while the West is sunk in profound economic distress.

debkafile's sources stress that both Tehran and the INSS are wrong: The Tel Aviv scenario is the work of a faction of retired Israeli security and intelligence bigwigs who, anxious to pull the Netanyahu government back from direct action against the Islamic Republic, have been lobbying for the proposition that Israel can live with a nuclear-armed Iran.
Our Washington sources confirm, however, that President Obama considers the risk of permitting a nuclear-armed Iran to be greater than the risks of military action.

Monday, Jan. 9, top administration officials said that developing a nuclear weapon would cross a red line and precipitate a US strike. US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta: "If Iran takes the step to develop a nuclear weapon or blocking the Strait of Hormuz, they're going to be stopped." He was repeating the warnings of the past month made by himself and Chairman of the Joint US Chiefs of Staff. Gen. Martin Dempsey.

As for Israel, Dennis Ross, until recently senior adviser to President Obama, reiterated in a Bloomberg interview on Jan. 10: "No one should doubt that President Barack Obama is prepared to use military force to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon if sanctions and diplomacy fail."
As for Israel, Ross said: "I wouldn't discount the possibility that the Israelis would act if they came to the conclusion that basically the world was prepared to live with Iran with nuclear weapons," he said. "They certainly have the capability by themselves to set back the Iranian nuclear program."

Israel's media screens and front pages are dominated these days by short-lived, parochial political sensations and devote few words to serious discourse on such weighty issues as Iran's nuclear threat.
This is a luxury that the US president cannot afford in an election year. Iran's acquisition of a nuclear bomb and conduct of a nuclear test would hurt his chances of a second term. The race is therefore on for an American strike to beat Iran's nuclear end game before the November 2012 presidential vote.

The INSS have also wrongly assessed Russia's response to an Iranian nuclear test as "to seek an alliance with the US to prevent nuclear proliferation in the region."
This fails to take into account that Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, running himself for a third term as president in March, has already committed Moscow to a new Middle East policy which hinges on support for a nuclear Iran and any other Middle East nation seeking a nuclear program. This is part of Russia's determined plan to trump America's Arab Spring card.

来源：
http://www.debka.com/article/21635/

{:soso__3360152837778432726_1:}

---

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---

只要伊朗伊斯兰共和国革命军卫队挖到两千五百米特深，就肯定能对付敌方的入侵威胁，
将把地下军事设施挖到四千米超深，伊朗伊斯兰共和国一定能取得胜利！
　　——伊朗伊斯兰共和国总统马哈茂德·艾哈迈迪内贾德

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