超级军网MD人民围观我GDP后（转贴）
来源：百度文库 编辑：超级军网 时间：2024/05/01 15:41:37
赫芬顿邮报：中国经济增长放缓到两年来最低水平
原帖地址：http://www.huffingtonpost.com/20 ... 3.html?ref=business
China GDP Growth Slows To Lowest Level In Two Years
中国GDP增长放缓到两年来的最低水平
BEIJING — China appears on track to avoid an abrupt economic slowdown with possible global repercussions after growth eased to a still robust 8.9 percent in the last quarter of 2011.
北京——在2011第四季度GDP增长放缓却依然有强健的8.9个百分点之后，中国似乎正将避免全球衰退影响下的经济骤跌纳入议程。
The expansion in the world's second-largest economy was the slowest in 2 1/2 years but December retail sales and factory output accelerated, data showed Tuesday. Growth in the previous quarter was 9.1 percent.
周二的数据显示，这个世界第二大经济体的膨胀已放缓到2年半以来的最低水平，但12月的零售与工厂出货依然在加速成长，前一季度的增长是9.1个百分点。
"Today's outcome seems to confirm a `soft landing' scenario," said Frances Cheung of Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong.
“目前的结果看起来印证了中国经济正实现`软着陆`的预测，”香港法国农业信贷/兴业银行的弗兰西斯张说。
China is one of the biggest importers and slower growth could have global repercussions if it cuts demand for iron ore, industrial components and other goods from Australia, Brazil, Southeast Asia and elsewhere.
中国是最大的进口国之一，减缓的经济增长可能带来全球效应，如果中国削减对于铁矿、工业零件和其他来自澳大利亚、巴西、东南亚和其他地区的产品需求的话。
Growth decelerated in 2011 as Beijing hiked interest rates and tightened investment curbs to prevent overheating and tame politically dangerous inflation. Communist leaders reversed course and started easing lending late in the year after plunging U.S. and European export demand raised the threat of job losses and unrest.
自从北京提高利率缩紧投资限制以防止经济过热和驯服可带来政治危机的通货膨胀之后，2011年经济开始放缓。在美欧出口需求骤跌提升了失业与动荡威胁之后，下半年共产主义领导人改变路线放宽了贷款。
The slowdown was in line with government plans, said Ma Jiantang, commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics. He said the "ideal situation" would be to keep growth between 8.5 percent and 9 percent, with inflation low.
经济衰退与政府的考量一致，国家统计局局长马建堂告诉记者。他认为“理想状态”是保持低通货膨胀下8.5到9个百分点的增长。
In 2012, China faces "complexity and challenges" due to global malaise and pressure for prices to rise, Ma said at a news conference. Still, he said, "The fundamentals of China's long-term steady economic growth have not changed."
2012年，由于全球经济不景气和物价上涨的压力，中国面临着“复杂性与挑战”，马建堂在新闻发布会上说，“保持经济长时期稳健增长依然是中国不变的基本原则。”
Growth in the three months ending in December was the slowest since the second quarter of 2009, when the economy expanded 7.9 percent.
到12月为止的三个月经济增长是2009年二季度以来最低的一次，仅为7.9个百分点。
Retail sales growth rebounded to 18.1 percent from November's 17.1 percent while factory output rose 12.8 percent, up from November's 12.4 percent.
零售业增长从11月的17.1个百分点反弹回18.1个百分点，工厂出货从11月的12.4个百分点上涨到12.8个百分点。
"This all reaffirms our outlook on China for a soft landing," said Moody's Analytics economist Glenn Levine in a report. "Export demand has cooled, but domestic demand is still running strong."
“这再一次确认了我们对于中国经济软着陆的展望，”穆迪评级的经济学家格伦雷弗恩在一份报告中指出，“出口需求开始冷却，但是内需依然强劲。”
Consumer inflation, a volatile element in a society where poor families spend up to half their incomes on food, edged down in December to 4.1 percent after hitting a 37-month high of 6.5 percent in July.
通货膨胀，社会的一个不稳定因素，贫穷家庭在食物上花掉一半的收入，十二月通货膨胀已从冲到37个月以来最高的6.5个百分点的7月下降到4.1个百分点。
That could give Beijing leeway to stimulate the economy, helping small companies that have been hurt by plunging export demand and squeezed by lending curbs, forcing thousands out of business and wiping out jobs.
这可能带给北京刺激经济的余地，帮助那些被骤跌的出口需求和紧缩借贷所伤害，数以千计的人们丢掉生意与工作的中小企业。
Analysts expect Beijing to try to stimulate growth with an interest rate cut, tax cuts or other measures. The central bank promised pro-growth measures this month to help entrepreneurs though it also pointed to inflation pressures and global uncertainties and said its monetary policy will stay "prudent."
分析家希望北京以降低利率，减税以及其他措施来刺激经济增长。央行承诺本月将实行推动经济措施来帮助企业家渡过难关，虽然央行同时也指出通货膨胀的压力，全球经济的不确定性，央行表示中央金融政策将继续保持“谨慎”。
Also in 2011, China's urban population exceeded the number of rural dwellers for the first time, rising to 51.3 percent of the nation's 1.3 billion people, the government reported.
政府报告指出，同样是2011年，中国的城市居民人口首次超过了农民居民人口，上升到13亿人口中的51.3个百分点。
Industry surveys show manufacturing and exports contracted in November and December, while a slowdown in real estate sales triggered by government efforts to stop speculation and cool surging housing prices has sparked concern about the impact on the overall economy. December import growth fell to 11.8 percent, barely half the previous month's 22.1 percent gain.
产业调查显示11月跟12月制造业与出口有所减退。同时在为阻止投机、稳定疯涨的房价的政府努力下，房地产销售也开始减退，这激起了地产冷却对总体经济冲击力的关切。12月的进口增长降到11.8个百分点，几乎只有前一月取得的22.1个百分点的一半。
"The slowdown has yet to come to an end," said economist Zhang Xinfa at China Galaxy Securities in Beijing.
“经济疲软该是到头了，”中国北京银河证券的经济学家张新法说。
Analysts say Beijing still needs to boost consumer spending to reduce reliance on exports and investment to drive growth.
分析家认为北京依然需要提升内需消费来减少经济增长对于出口和投资的依赖。
The communist government has pledged for years to reorient its economy but is only starting to make progress after its stimulus in response to the 2008 global crisis fueled a surge in construction spending.
共产党政府多年以来一直承诺改变经济结构，作为对2008年全球经济衰退的反应而推行的由基础建设推动的经济刺激政策才刚开始取得进展。
Ma, the statistics official, pointed to the shift in population toward cities and said that might help to spur consumption growth.
国家统计局局长马建堂指出，人口向城市的转移可能对促进经济增长有所帮助。
"If we can rely more on domestic consumption," said Credit Agricole CIB's Cheung, "that will help the economy to sail through all these headwinds."
“如果我们能更多的依赖于内需消费，”法国农业信贷/兴业银行的张先生说，“将有利于我们的经济逆风前进。”
评论：
Zhuubaajie95 Fans23 hours ago( 7:58 PM)
By George!! Slowest in 2 years!! Boohoo, the sky is falling!!9.2% is still the highest in the world (at least for major economies) in 2011 no? It is also how many TIMES the growth in America?
我的老天！！！两年来的最低水平！！！嚎啕大哭啊！！！天要塌了！！！9.2个百分点依然是2011年世界最高（至少就主要经济体而言）不是吗？这依然是美国增长的多少倍？？？？
Casey Hutchinson11 Fans05:24 PM on 01/17/2012
China's GDP might have slowed BUT, in the past 30 years,Chin-a's gross domestic product has expanded by an average 10% a year in that period. China has also become one of the world's leading destinatio-ns for foreign investment-.
中国的GDP可能是减慢了，但是，过去30年利中国国内产品总额是以10%的平均增长率在膨胀，中国同时也成为世界主要的国外投资目的地！
Zhuubaajie95 Fans23 hours ago( 8:02 PM)
I think few in America actually think along those lines. Average 9% growth means a DOUBLING of living standards every 8 years (for the last 33, starting from 1978). That is, the average buying power of the averaqe Chinese grow by 2^4, or 1,600% of what it was in 1978. Very few have experience-d that, and therefore could not comprehend-. Beijing appears to be focused on one, the most important, human right that a government can do something about - the right of the largest number of citizens go have their lives improve year after year.
（回复楼上）我认为美国人很少顺着这种思路思考。平均9%的增长率意味着每8年生活水平就会翻一番（自1978年起的过去33年）。这也意味着，中国普通家庭的平均购买力从1978年来上升了16倍，或者说1600个百分点。很少有人有这样的经历，因此他们无法理解。北京看起来始终坚定不移地锁定着人权中政府能致力的最重要部分——最庞大人口国家的人民年复一年提高生活水平的权利。
Casey Hutchinson11 Fans19 hours ago(11:24 PM)
I agree that Beijing's focus on individual personal growth is impressive (then again 1,600% of "peanuts" is still peanuts. I also agree with their one child policy. The rest of the world will one day be forced to adopt the same policy, like it or not, otherwise the world population will eventually explode. I however think China has great strides to make in human right. I would fear living in China. I see the current Obama regime trying to adopt the socialist values of China, right under the nose of the ignorant American populous.
（回复楼上）我同意北京致力改善个人生活水平的结果是醒目的，不过生活水平提升了16倍的奴民依然是奴民，我也认可他们的一胎政策。世界的其他地区终有一天也会被迫采用同样的政策，不管喜不喜欢，不然地球人口数目最终会爆炸！不过我也认为中国在人权上取得的进步是跨越式的。我还是会恐惧在中国生活。
我看到现在的奥巴马政权正在试着采用中国的社会主义价值观，就在愚昧的美国人眼皮底下。
1 Fans05:15 PM on 01/17/2012
it should the people of the united states are its biggest buyer but we have no money now for chineee junk . i know people from china they say [ CHINEE NO GOOD NO GOOD TO BUY ]
这本来该是美国人民享受的，我们是全球最大的买家，但是我们现在没钱买那些中国垃圾了。我知道中国人怎么说[中国货不好不好别买
ALECTRO46 Fans04:50 PM on 01/17/2012
China is on course for a bitter bubble burst. Here is why. When an economy starts from near zero, huge incrementa-l growth is easy. To increase 100 100%, you need only 100 more. as the economy grows and requires growth at 9% or 10% to prevent it from collapsing (as China does today) the problem gets more difficult. Now as they approach a $6 trillion economy, it takes $600 bn in growth to make that 10% number. This geometric growth has a limit. Even with developmen-t of an internal middle class and currency manipulati-on to expand foreign trade, the ability to grow is finite and subject to constraint-s. Labor wants more, natural resources are limited, ability to expand infrastruc-ture is limited by materials, ability to manage projects, and environmen-tal limits. Not this year but in 5 years perhaps - the limits are approachin-g and they will strike with disastrous economic, political, and environmen-tal consequenc-es.
中国正走向痛苦的经济泡沫爆裂。我告诉你为什么。当一个经济体以接近0的起点开始时，庞大的总量增长是非常容易的。要增加100%只需要100就够了。当经济体成长起来，需要保持9%-10%才能避免经济崩溃的时候，问题就变得困难了。现在他们的经济总量已接近6万亿美元，需要每年增加6000亿美元才能保持10%的经济增长率。这种几何级的增长是有限的。即使是在国内中产阶级的壮大，操纵汇率以扩张外贸的条件下，增长的能力依然有限，有许多限制。劳动者想要得到更多，本土资源是有限的，基础建设的扩张能力又受限于材料，工程管理的能力又受限于环境限制。今年或者也许5年之内——这些限制条件都将逐渐显现，他们将与灾难性的经济、政治和环境问题搏斗了。
Zhuubaajie95 Fans23 hours ago( 7:55 PM)
Wow, such brilliance in analysis and prediction-!!Except that line's been around for the last 20 years? China's growth did not come from trade. It came from PRODUCTIVI-TY GAINS. So the allegation of currency manipulati-on as a major factor to GDP growth is silly. See:http://www-.iariw.org-/papers/20-07/ozyurt.-pdfThe conclusion of the paper was that, up to 2005, most of that productivi-ty gain in China came from capital accumulati-on (having better equipment/-technology and more efficaciou-s use of other input factors). If the Chinese currency were of higher value the cost of imports (as production factors) would have been even more favorable (cheaper), thereby driving higher growth. Yes it has to be balanced against having export prices that are higher, but on balance a stronger RMB would have meant higher growth. Look at the last couple of decades - when the US dollar was high, that was when American growth was also high.
哇，如此精妙的分析与预言！不过你说的这些问题过去20年不是一直存在吗？中国的增长不是来自于贸易，而是来自于生产力收益。所以你的操纵汇率是中国GDP增长的主要因素的主张是可笑的。看这里：
http://www-.iariw.org-/papers/20-07/ozyurt.-pdf
这份报告的结论是，直到2005年，中国的生产力收益的大部分来自于资本积累（更好的生产设备/生产技术和其他投入因素的更有效运用）。如果如你所言中国的汇率提高的话对进口来说（就生产设备而言），对他们甚至是更有利的（更便宜），也将给他们带来更高的增长率。没错此消彼长他们的出口价格也会更高，但是两两相抵，强劲的人民币意味着更高的增长率。看看上两个10年——当美元价格高涨的时候，也是美国经济高涨的时候。
pslcitizenIntelligence is the ability to adapt to change.147 Fans03:02 PM on 01/17/2012
Uh oh. Won't be long before they will want to collect on the debt we owe them...
啊......哦，要不了多久他们就会来收我们欠他们的债了。
dknowles60101 Fans03:25 PM on 01/17/2012
hear! hear!
（回复楼上）
知道了知道了！！！（表示不满）
ALECTRO46 Fans04:52 PM on 01/17/2012
They will do absolutely nothing to jeopardize their most important market, the USA.
（回复楼上）显而易见他们不会做任何会令他们最重要的市场—美利坚—陷入危境的任何事。
Zhuubaajie95 Fans23 hours ago( 8:03 PM)
UNLESS . . . .
（回复楼上）除非......（美国不再是中国最重要的市场......）
dcol47 Fans02:28 PM on 01/17/2012
The product quality and workmanshi-p is so poor on all the junk that is made in China. Even the higher end product is total garbage. Americans would be ashamed to make such rubbish. You would think it would be easy to compete with them. Guess you get what you pay for.
中国制造的所有垃圾的产品质量和工艺都烂到无法想象。即使是高端产品都完全是垃圾。美国人要是生产出这样的垃圾会羞愧无地的。你可以认为跟他们竞争是非常容易的。你得到的跟你所付出的是成正比。
DAE665 Fans02:49 PM on 01/17/2012
The TV i bought from China three years ago works fine. The computer I bought was made in China. Works fine. There's really nothing that I've bought that's been made in China that I've found to be inferior. What you say is just not true.
（回复楼上）
我3年前从中国买的电视运行良好。我买的电脑也是中国制造，运行良好。我买的所有中国制造的东西没有一件被我发现是劣等品。你说的不是真相。
6 Fans04:53 PM on 01/17/2012
85% of the quality, 50% of the price. People will buy and be happy to accept the quality which is improving every day.
85%的质量，50%的价格，人们会很乐意接受并购买这种价格下的质量，再说他们的质量每天都在改善。
Jestnow38 Fans02:20 PM on 01/17/2012
Well DAAH!, the worst is yet to come. When you have "all" the jobs who in other parts of the world can afford your products. Read your own furtune cookie...
啊！！！最坏的情况还是来临了！！！中国人拥有“所有”的工作而世界的其他地区能负担得起他们的产品。读读你自己的幸运饼吧......
JoeMomma326 Fans01:51 PM on 01/17/2012
Not another soft landing...-aka epic collapse!
没什么所谓的软着陆......只有宏大的经济崩溃！！！
fredlynn07141 Fans01:31 PM on 01/17/2012
Doesn't hurt my heart!
读完新闻我一点也不伤心哦！！！一点也不伤心！！！！
Enrique IglesiasTHE CHINA GAME645 Fans05:02 PM on 01/17/2012
Well, think about this; if the Chinese Economy collapse's the bread line won't be worth getting into as there won't be anything as our Economy will have tanked as well; that's what Golbal Economics are all about... the house of cards has to stay in place or we all will collapse with it...
话说回来，想想这个吧：如果中国经济崩溃，那些领救济的队伍将是不值得对此发生兴趣的，因为我们美国也是地主家没有余粮，这就是全球经济的含义了。扑克搭起的房子要好好保持原位，不然我们都得崩溃......
Bravo4110 Fans01:26 PM on 01/17/2012
In the Korean war the veterans would to tell me.the Chinese had lots of soldiers but not enough weapons, So, the ones who didn't would follow the ones that did and police up the dead and wounded's to continue the attack. Is it that bad yet..I hope !!!
从朝鲜战争中回来的退伍老兵曾告诉我，那些志愿军有大量的士兵却没有足够的武器，所以那些没有枪的士兵就跟在有枪的士兵背后，然后在阵亡者跟伤者手中捡起枪来继续攻击。现在是不是已经这么糟了！！我希望！
Lochness71Here I am.250 Fans04:18 PM on 01/17/2012
Russian's did the same during WWII during the battle of Staligrad.
（回复楼上）苏联人在二战斯大林格勒战役中也是这样做的。
Zhuubaajie95 Fans23 hours ago( 8:06 PM)
Who won? [hint: the Chicoms started at the Yalu when it started.]
（回复楼上）谁赢了？
[提示：中国GCD是从鸭绿江边开始进攻的
OnTheOtherSideOfEarth3 Fans14 hours ago( 4:30 AM)
No winner, a bloody tie cost thousands of lives.
（回复楼上）没有赢家。成千上万跳性命换来的一场血淋淋的妥协。
DAE
665 Fans
01:24 PM on 01/17/2012
This is exactly what the Chinese government was attempting to do and they did it. So all the comments here predicting a bubble bursting are flights of fancy.More enlighteni-ng is the fact that "in 2011, China's urban population exceeded the number of rural dwellers for the first time, rising to 51.3% of the nation's 1.3 billion people." This is an amazing accomplish-ment. As recently as 1980 the rural/urba-n ratio in China was approximat-ely 20%/80% The shift from rural to urban is one of the main hallmarks of economic developmen-t. In India the Rural – Urban distributi-on is 68.84% to 31.16% (2011 census) only slightly different from 2001 when it was 72.19% to 27.81%. We reached the 50% threshold in 1920 and didn't reach the 66% urban level until 1950. We're currently at 75%.
这就是中国政府试图做到的和已经做到的成果。所以这些众多评论里面预言着中国将发生经济泡沫破裂全是一段段幻想。
更富有启发性的事实是“2011年，中国的城市居民人口首次超过了农民居民人口，上升到13亿人口中的51.3个百分点 ”，这是一项了不起的成就。就在上世纪80年代中国的农村/城市人口比例还是大约80%比20%，农村居民向城市迁移是经济发展的主要标志之一。印度的农村/城市人口分布还是68.84%的农村居民对31.16%的城市居民（2011年人口普查数据），跟2001年的72.19%比27.81%相比只有些微变化。我们美国在上世纪20年代达到了50%的门槛，一直到50年代才达到66%，我们现在是75%的城市居民比例。
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Robert SF
812 Fans
02:15 PM on 01/17/2012
It may be an accomplish-ment, but it's going to make things worse when the inevitable fall comes. At least you can live off the land out in the countrysid-e. You can't do that in the big city. In the big city, if you can't find work, you can't pay rent, and if you can't pay rent, you live in the streets. That's one of the problems we're having in our own highly urbanized country.
（回复楼上）
也许如你所说，这是一项成就，但当不可避免的经济衰退来临时这会让事情变得更糟。在农村至少你能靠耕地过活，在大城市你没办法这样生存。在大城市，如果你找不到工作，你付不起房租，你付不起房租就只好睡大街。这是在我们这样高度城市化的国家里同样存在的问题。
DAE
665 Fans
02:45 PM on 01/17/2012
There is no "inevitabl-e fall." As an archeologi-st working in China in the 1980s and 90s I spent months living in rural China, in areas where no foreigners ever visited. I thought it was great. There was no dire poverty as still exists in parts of Africa and elsewhere. But life was extremely simple. The movement to the cities is a universal aspect of modernizat-ion and economic developmen-t. Its usually accompanie-d by vast upheaval and human suffering. This has been greatly mitigated in China. Believe it or not.
（回复楼上）
没什么“不可避免的衰退”。作为一名上世纪80年代到90年代在中国工作的考古学家，我在中国农村呆过好几个月，在那些根本没有外国人去过的地区。我认为那里是了不起的。那里没有像非洲地区跟其他地区依然存在的令人恐惧的机皇。但是生活极端简朴。农村人口向城市迁移是现代化和经济发展的普遍标志。这通常伴随着向上的动乱和人民受苦，但在中国这种痛苦大大减轻了。信不信随你。
赫芬顿邮报：中国经济增长放缓到两年来最低水平
原帖地址：http://www.huffingtonpost.com/20 ... 3.html?ref=business
China GDP Growth Slows To Lowest Level In Two Years
中国GDP增长放缓到两年来的最低水平
BEIJING — China appears on track to avoid an abrupt economic slowdown with possible global repercussions after growth eased to a still robust 8.9 percent in the last quarter of 2011.
北京——在2011第四季度GDP增长放缓却依然有强健的8.9个百分点之后，中国似乎正将避免全球衰退影响下的经济骤跌纳入议程。
The expansion in the world's second-largest economy was the slowest in 2 1/2 years but December retail sales and factory output accelerated, data showed Tuesday. Growth in the previous quarter was 9.1 percent.
周二的数据显示，这个世界第二大经济体的膨胀已放缓到2年半以来的最低水平，但12月的零售与工厂出货依然在加速成长，前一季度的增长是9.1个百分点。
"Today's outcome seems to confirm a `soft landing' scenario," said Frances Cheung of Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong.
“目前的结果看起来印证了中国经济正实现`软着陆`的预测，”香港法国农业信贷/兴业银行的弗兰西斯张说。
China is one of the biggest importers and slower growth could have global repercussions if it cuts demand for iron ore, industrial components and other goods from Australia, Brazil, Southeast Asia and elsewhere.
中国是最大的进口国之一，减缓的经济增长可能带来全球效应，如果中国削减对于铁矿、工业零件和其他来自澳大利亚、巴西、东南亚和其他地区的产品需求的话。
Growth decelerated in 2011 as Beijing hiked interest rates and tightened investment curbs to prevent overheating and tame politically dangerous inflation. Communist leaders reversed course and started easing lending late in the year after plunging U.S. and European export demand raised the threat of job losses and unrest.
自从北京提高利率缩紧投资限制以防止经济过热和驯服可带来政治危机的通货膨胀之后，2011年经济开始放缓。在美欧出口需求骤跌提升了失业与动荡威胁之后，下半年共产主义领导人改变路线放宽了贷款。
The slowdown was in line with government plans, said Ma Jiantang, commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics. He said the "ideal situation" would be to keep growth between 8.5 percent and 9 percent, with inflation low.
经济衰退与政府的考量一致，国家统计局局长马建堂告诉记者。他认为“理想状态”是保持低通货膨胀下8.5到9个百分点的增长。
In 2012, China faces "complexity and challenges" due to global malaise and pressure for prices to rise, Ma said at a news conference. Still, he said, "The fundamentals of China's long-term steady economic growth have not changed."
2012年，由于全球经济不景气和物价上涨的压力，中国面临着“复杂性与挑战”，马建堂在新闻发布会上说，“保持经济长时期稳健增长依然是中国不变的基本原则。”
Growth in the three months ending in December was the slowest since the second quarter of 2009, when the economy expanded 7.9 percent.
到12月为止的三个月经济增长是2009年二季度以来最低的一次，仅为7.9个百分点。
Retail sales growth rebounded to 18.1 percent from November's 17.1 percent while factory output rose 12.8 percent, up from November's 12.4 percent.
零售业增长从11月的17.1个百分点反弹回18.1个百分点，工厂出货从11月的12.4个百分点上涨到12.8个百分点。
"This all reaffirms our outlook on China for a soft landing," said Moody's Analytics economist Glenn Levine in a report. "Export demand has cooled, but domestic demand is still running strong."
“这再一次确认了我们对于中国经济软着陆的展望，”穆迪评级的经济学家格伦雷弗恩在一份报告中指出，“出口需求开始冷却，但是内需依然强劲。”
Consumer inflation, a volatile element in a society where poor families spend up to half their incomes on food, edged down in December to 4.1 percent after hitting a 37-month high of 6.5 percent in July.
通货膨胀，社会的一个不稳定因素，贫穷家庭在食物上花掉一半的收入，十二月通货膨胀已从冲到37个月以来最高的6.5个百分点的7月下降到4.1个百分点。
That could give Beijing leeway to stimulate the economy, helping small companies that have been hurt by plunging export demand and squeezed by lending curbs, forcing thousands out of business and wiping out jobs.
这可能带给北京刺激经济的余地，帮助那些被骤跌的出口需求和紧缩借贷所伤害，数以千计的人们丢掉生意与工作的中小企业。
Analysts expect Beijing to try to stimulate growth with an interest rate cut, tax cuts or other measures. The central bank promised pro-growth measures this month to help entrepreneurs though it also pointed to inflation pressures and global uncertainties and said its monetary policy will stay "prudent."
分析家希望北京以降低利率，减税以及其他措施来刺激经济增长。央行承诺本月将实行推动经济措施来帮助企业家渡过难关，虽然央行同时也指出通货膨胀的压力，全球经济的不确定性，央行表示中央金融政策将继续保持“谨慎”。
Also in 2011, China's urban population exceeded the number of rural dwellers for the first time, rising to 51.3 percent of the nation's 1.3 billion people, the government reported.
政府报告指出，同样是2011年，中国的城市居民人口首次超过了农民居民人口，上升到13亿人口中的51.3个百分点。
Industry surveys show manufacturing and exports contracted in November and December, while a slowdown in real estate sales triggered by government efforts to stop speculation and cool surging housing prices has sparked concern about the impact on the overall economy. December import growth fell to 11.8 percent, barely half the previous month's 22.1 percent gain.
产业调查显示11月跟12月制造业与出口有所减退。同时在为阻止投机、稳定疯涨的房价的政府努力下，房地产销售也开始减退，这激起了地产冷却对总体经济冲击力的关切。12月的进口增长降到11.8个百分点，几乎只有前一月取得的22.1个百分点的一半。
"The slowdown has yet to come to an end," said economist Zhang Xinfa at China Galaxy Securities in Beijing.
“经济疲软该是到头了，”中国北京银河证券的经济学家张新法说。
Analysts say Beijing still needs to boost consumer spending to reduce reliance on exports and investment to drive growth.
分析家认为北京依然需要提升内需消费来减少经济增长对于出口和投资的依赖。
The communist government has pledged for years to reorient its economy but is only starting to make progress after its stimulus in response to the 2008 global crisis fueled a surge in construction spending.
共产党政府多年以来一直承诺改变经济结构，作为对2008年全球经济衰退的反应而推行的由基础建设推动的经济刺激政策才刚开始取得进展。
Ma, the statistics official, pointed to the shift in population toward cities and said that might help to spur consumption growth.
国家统计局局长马建堂指出，人口向城市的转移可能对促进经济增长有所帮助。
"If we can rely more on domestic consumption," said Credit Agricole CIB's Cheung, "that will help the economy to sail through all these headwinds."
“如果我们能更多的依赖于内需消费，”法国农业信贷/兴业银行的张先生说，“将有利于我们的经济逆风前进。”
评论：
Zhuubaajie95 Fans23 hours ago( 7:58 PM)
By George!! Slowest in 2 years!! Boohoo, the sky is falling!!9.2% is still the highest in the world (at least for major economies) in 2011 no? It is also how many TIMES the growth in America?
我的老天！！！两年来的最低水平！！！嚎啕大哭啊！！！天要塌了！！！9.2个百分点依然是2011年世界最高（至少就主要经济体而言）不是吗？这依然是美国增长的多少倍？？？？
Casey Hutchinson11 Fans05:24 PM on 01/17/2012
China's GDP might have slowed BUT, in the past 30 years,Chin-a's gross domestic product has expanded by an average 10% a year in that period. China has also become one of the world's leading destinatio-ns for foreign investment-.
中国的GDP可能是减慢了，但是，过去30年利中国国内产品总额是以10%的平均增长率在膨胀，中国同时也成为世界主要的国外投资目的地！
Zhuubaajie95 Fans23 hours ago( 8:02 PM)
I think few in America actually think along those lines. Average 9% growth means a DOUBLING of living standards every 8 years (for the last 33, starting from 1978). That is, the average buying power of the averaqe Chinese grow by 2^4, or 1,600% of what it was in 1978. Very few have experience-d that, and therefore could not comprehend-. Beijing appears to be focused on one, the most important, human right that a government can do something about - the right of the largest number of citizens go have their lives improve year after year.
（回复楼上）我认为美国人很少顺着这种思路思考。平均9%的增长率意味着每8年生活水平就会翻一番（自1978年起的过去33年）。这也意味着，中国普通家庭的平均购买力从1978年来上升了16倍，或者说1600个百分点。很少有人有这样的经历，因此他们无法理解。北京看起来始终坚定不移地锁定着人权中政府能致力的最重要部分——最庞大人口国家的人民年复一年提高生活水平的权利。
Casey Hutchinson11 Fans19 hours ago(11:24 PM)
I agree that Beijing's focus on individual personal growth is impressive (then again 1,600% of "peanuts" is still peanuts. I also agree with their one child policy. The rest of the world will one day be forced to adopt the same policy, like it or not, otherwise the world population will eventually explode. I however think China has great strides to make in human right. I would fear living in China. I see the current Obama regime trying to adopt the socialist values of China, right under the nose of the ignorant American populous.
（回复楼上）我同意北京致力改善个人生活水平的结果是醒目的，不过生活水平提升了16倍的奴民依然是奴民，我也认可他们的一胎政策。世界的其他地区终有一天也会被迫采用同样的政策，不管喜不喜欢，不然地球人口数目最终会爆炸！不过我也认为中国在人权上取得的进步是跨越式的。我还是会恐惧在中国生活。
我看到现在的奥巴马政权正在试着采用中国的社会主义价值观，就在愚昧的美国人眼皮底下。
1 Fans05:15 PM on 01/17/2012
it should the people of the united states are its biggest buyer but we have no money now for chineee junk . i know people from china they say [ CHINEE NO GOOD NO GOOD TO BUY ]
这本来该是美国人民享受的，我们是全球最大的买家，但是我们现在没钱买那些中国垃圾了。我知道中国人怎么说[中国货不好不好别买
ALECTRO46 Fans04:50 PM on 01/17/2012
China is on course for a bitter bubble burst. Here is why. When an economy starts from near zero, huge incrementa-l growth is easy. To increase 100 100%, you need only 100 more. as the economy grows and requires growth at 9% or 10% to prevent it from collapsing (as China does today) the problem gets more difficult. Now as they approach a $6 trillion economy, it takes $600 bn in growth to make that 10% number. This geometric growth has a limit. Even with developmen-t of an internal middle class and currency manipulati-on to expand foreign trade, the ability to grow is finite and subject to constraint-s. Labor wants more, natural resources are limited, ability to expand infrastruc-ture is limited by materials, ability to manage projects, and environmen-tal limits. Not this year but in 5 years perhaps - the limits are approachin-g and they will strike with disastrous economic, political, and environmen-tal consequenc-es.
中国正走向痛苦的经济泡沫爆裂。我告诉你为什么。当一个经济体以接近0的起点开始时，庞大的总量增长是非常容易的。要增加100%只需要100就够了。当经济体成长起来，需要保持9%-10%才能避免经济崩溃的时候，问题就变得困难了。现在他们的经济总量已接近6万亿美元，需要每年增加6000亿美元才能保持10%的经济增长率。这种几何级的增长是有限的。即使是在国内中产阶级的壮大，操纵汇率以扩张外贸的条件下，增长的能力依然有限，有许多限制。劳动者想要得到更多，本土资源是有限的，基础建设的扩张能力又受限于材料，工程管理的能力又受限于环境限制。今年或者也许5年之内——这些限制条件都将逐渐显现，他们将与灾难性的经济、政治和环境问题搏斗了。
Zhuubaajie95 Fans23 hours ago( 7:55 PM)
Wow, such brilliance in analysis and prediction-!!Except that line's been around for the last 20 years? China's growth did not come from trade. It came from PRODUCTIVI-TY GAINS. So the allegation of currency manipulati-on as a major factor to GDP growth is silly. See:http://www-.iariw.org-/papers/20-07/ozyurt.-pdfThe conclusion of the paper was that, up to 2005, most of that productivi-ty gain in China came from capital accumulati-on (having better equipment/-technology and more efficaciou-s use of other input factors). If the Chinese currency were of higher value the cost of imports (as production factors) would have been even more favorable (cheaper), thereby driving higher growth. Yes it has to be balanced against having export prices that are higher, but on balance a stronger RMB would have meant higher growth. Look at the last couple of decades - when the US dollar was high, that was when American growth was also high.
哇，如此精妙的分析与预言！不过你说的这些问题过去20年不是一直存在吗？中国的增长不是来自于贸易，而是来自于生产力收益。所以你的操纵汇率是中国GDP增长的主要因素的主张是可笑的。看这里：
http://www-.iariw.org-/papers/20-07/ozyurt.-pdf
这份报告的结论是，直到2005年，中国的生产力收益的大部分来自于资本积累（更好的生产设备/生产技术和其他投入因素的更有效运用）。如果如你所言中国的汇率提高的话对进口来说（就生产设备而言），对他们甚至是更有利的（更便宜），也将给他们带来更高的增长率。没错此消彼长他们的出口价格也会更高，但是两两相抵，强劲的人民币意味着更高的增长率。看看上两个10年——当美元价格高涨的时候，也是美国经济高涨的时候。
pslcitizenIntelligence is the ability to adapt to change.147 Fans03:02 PM on 01/17/2012
Uh oh. Won't be long before they will want to collect on the debt we owe them...
啊......哦，要不了多久他们就会来收我们欠他们的债了。
dknowles60101 Fans03:25 PM on 01/17/2012
hear! hear!
（回复楼上）
知道了知道了！！！（表示不满）
ALECTRO46 Fans04:52 PM on 01/17/2012
They will do absolutely nothing to jeopardize their most important market, the USA.
（回复楼上）显而易见他们不会做任何会令他们最重要的市场—美利坚—陷入危境的任何事。
Zhuubaajie95 Fans23 hours ago( 8:03 PM)
UNLESS . . . .
（回复楼上）除非......（美国不再是中国最重要的市场......）
dcol47 Fans02:28 PM on 01/17/2012
The product quality and workmanshi-p is so poor on all the junk that is made in China. Even the higher end product is total garbage. Americans would be ashamed to make such rubbish. You would think it would be easy to compete with them. Guess you get what you pay for.
中国制造的所有垃圾的产品质量和工艺都烂到无法想象。即使是高端产品都完全是垃圾。美国人要是生产出这样的垃圾会羞愧无地的。你可以认为跟他们竞争是非常容易的。你得到的跟你所付出的是成正比。
DAE665 Fans02:49 PM on 01/17/2012
The TV i bought from China three years ago works fine. The computer I bought was made in China. Works fine. There's really nothing that I've bought that's been made in China that I've found to be inferior. What you say is just not true.
（回复楼上）
我3年前从中国买的电视运行良好。我买的电脑也是中国制造，运行良好。我买的所有中国制造的东西没有一件被我发现是劣等品。你说的不是真相。
6 Fans04:53 PM on 01/17/2012
85% of the quality, 50% of the price. People will buy and be happy to accept the quality which is improving every day.
85%的质量，50%的价格，人们会很乐意接受并购买这种价格下的质量，再说他们的质量每天都在改善。
Jestnow38 Fans02:20 PM on 01/17/2012
Well DAAH!, the worst is yet to come. When you have "all" the jobs who in other parts of the world can afford your products. Read your own furtune cookie...
啊！！！最坏的情况还是来临了！！！中国人拥有“所有”的工作而世界的其他地区能负担得起他们的产品。读读你自己的幸运饼吧......
JoeMomma326 Fans01:51 PM on 01/17/2012
Not another soft landing...-aka epic collapse!
没什么所谓的软着陆......只有宏大的经济崩溃！！！
fredlynn07141 Fans01:31 PM on 01/17/2012
Doesn't hurt my heart!
读完新闻我一点也不伤心哦！！！一点也不伤心！！！！
Enrique IglesiasTHE CHINA GAME645 Fans05:02 PM on 01/17/2012
Well, think about this; if the Chinese Economy collapse's the bread line won't be worth getting into as there won't be anything as our Economy will have tanked as well; that's what Golbal Economics are all about... the house of cards has to stay in place or we all will collapse with it...
话说回来，想想这个吧：如果中国经济崩溃，那些领救济的队伍将是不值得对此发生兴趣的，因为我们美国也是地主家没有余粮，这就是全球经济的含义了。扑克搭起的房子要好好保持原位，不然我们都得崩溃......
Bravo4110 Fans01:26 PM on 01/17/2012
In the Korean war the veterans would to tell me.the Chinese had lots of soldiers but not enough weapons, So, the ones who didn't would follow the ones that did and police up the dead and wounded's to continue the attack. Is it that bad yet..I hope !!!
从朝鲜战争中回来的退伍老兵曾告诉我，那些志愿军有大量的士兵却没有足够的武器，所以那些没有枪的士兵就跟在有枪的士兵背后，然后在阵亡者跟伤者手中捡起枪来继续攻击。现在是不是已经这么糟了！！我希望！
Lochness71Here I am.250 Fans04:18 PM on 01/17/2012
Russian's did the same during WWII during the battle of Staligrad.
（回复楼上）苏联人在二战斯大林格勒战役中也是这样做的。
Zhuubaajie95 Fans23 hours ago( 8:06 PM)
Who won? [hint: the Chicoms started at the Yalu when it started.]
（回复楼上）谁赢了？
[提示：中国GCD是从鸭绿江边开始进攻的
OnTheOtherSideOfEarth3 Fans14 hours ago( 4:30 AM)
No winner, a bloody tie cost thousands of lives.
（回复楼上）没有赢家。成千上万跳性命换来的一场血淋淋的妥协。
DAE
665 Fans
01:24 PM on 01/17/2012
This is exactly what the Chinese government was attempting to do and they did it. So all the comments here predicting a bubble bursting are flights of fancy.More enlighteni-ng is the fact that "in 2011, China's urban population exceeded the number of rural dwellers for the first time, rising to 51.3% of the nation's 1.3 billion people." This is an amazing accomplish-ment. As recently as 1980 the rural/urba-n ratio in China was approximat-ely 20%/80% The shift from rural to urban is one of the main hallmarks of economic developmen-t. In India the Rural – Urban distributi-on is 68.84% to 31.16% (2011 census) only slightly different from 2001 when it was 72.19% to 27.81%. We reached the 50% threshold in 1920 and didn't reach the 66% urban level until 1950. We're currently at 75%.
这就是中国政府试图做到的和已经做到的成果。所以这些众多评论里面预言着中国将发生经济泡沫破裂全是一段段幻想。
更富有启发性的事实是“2011年，中国的城市居民人口首次超过了农民居民人口，上升到13亿人口中的51.3个百分点 ”，这是一项了不起的成就。就在上世纪80年代中国的农村/城市人口比例还是大约80%比20%，农村居民向城市迁移是经济发展的主要标志之一。印度的农村/城市人口分布还是68.84%的农村居民对31.16%的城市居民（2011年人口普查数据），跟2001年的72.19%比27.81%相比只有些微变化。我们美国在上世纪20年代达到了50%的门槛，一直到50年代才达到66%，我们现在是75%的城市居民比例。
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Robert SF
812 Fans
02:15 PM on 01/17/2012
It may be an accomplish-ment, but it's going to make things worse when the inevitable fall comes. At least you can live off the land out in the countrysid-e. You can't do that in the big city. In the big city, if you can't find work, you can't pay rent, and if you can't pay rent, you live in the streets. That's one of the problems we're having in our own highly urbanized country.
（回复楼上）
也许如你所说，这是一项成就，但当不可避免的经济衰退来临时这会让事情变得更糟。在农村至少你能靠耕地过活，在大城市你没办法这样生存。在大城市，如果你找不到工作，你付不起房租，你付不起房租就只好睡大街。这是在我们这样高度城市化的国家里同样存在的问题。
DAE
665 Fans
02:45 PM on 01/17/2012
There is no "inevitabl-e fall." As an archeologi-st working in China in the 1980s and 90s I spent months living in rural China, in areas where no foreigners ever visited. I thought it was great. There was no dire poverty as still exists in parts of Africa and elsewhere. But life was extremely simple. The movement to the cities is a universal aspect of modernizat-ion and economic developmen-t. Its usually accompanie-d by vast upheaval and human suffering. This has been greatly mitigated in China. Believe it or not.
（回复楼上）
没什么“不可避免的衰退”。作为一名上世纪80年代到90年代在中国工作的考古学家，我在中国农村呆过好几个月，在那些根本没有外国人去过的地区。我认为那里是了不起的。那里没有像非洲地区跟其他地区依然存在的令人恐惧的机皇。但是生活极端简朴。农村人口向城市迁移是现代化和经济发展的普遍标志。这通常伴随着向上的动乱和人民受苦，但在中国这种痛苦大大减轻了。信不信随你。
原帖地址：http://www.huffingtonpost.com/20 ... 3.html?ref=business
China GDP Growth Slows To Lowest Level In Two Years
中国GDP增长放缓到两年来的最低水平
BEIJING — China appears on track to avoid an abrupt economic slowdown with possible global repercussions after growth eased to a still robust 8.9 percent in the last quarter of 2011.
北京——在2011第四季度GDP增长放缓却依然有强健的8.9个百分点之后，中国似乎正将避免全球衰退影响下的经济骤跌纳入议程。
The expansion in the world's second-largest economy was the slowest in 2 1/2 years but December retail sales and factory output accelerated, data showed Tuesday. Growth in the previous quarter was 9.1 percent.
周二的数据显示，这个世界第二大经济体的膨胀已放缓到2年半以来的最低水平，但12月的零售与工厂出货依然在加速成长，前一季度的增长是9.1个百分点。
"Today's outcome seems to confirm a `soft landing' scenario," said Frances Cheung of Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong.
“目前的结果看起来印证了中国经济正实现`软着陆`的预测，”香港法国农业信贷/兴业银行的弗兰西斯张说。
China is one of the biggest importers and slower growth could have global repercussions if it cuts demand for iron ore, industrial components and other goods from Australia, Brazil, Southeast Asia and elsewhere.
中国是最大的进口国之一，减缓的经济增长可能带来全球效应，如果中国削减对于铁矿、工业零件和其他来自澳大利亚、巴西、东南亚和其他地区的产品需求的话。
Growth decelerated in 2011 as Beijing hiked interest rates and tightened investment curbs to prevent overheating and tame politically dangerous inflation. Communist leaders reversed course and started easing lending late in the year after plunging U.S. and European export demand raised the threat of job losses and unrest.
自从北京提高利率缩紧投资限制以防止经济过热和驯服可带来政治危机的通货膨胀之后，2011年经济开始放缓。在美欧出口需求骤跌提升了失业与动荡威胁之后，下半年共产主义领导人改变路线放宽了贷款。
The slowdown was in line with government plans, said Ma Jiantang, commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics. He said the "ideal situation" would be to keep growth between 8.5 percent and 9 percent, with inflation low.
经济衰退与政府的考量一致，国家统计局局长马建堂告诉记者。他认为“理想状态”是保持低通货膨胀下8.5到9个百分点的增长。
In 2012, China faces "complexity and challenges" due to global malaise and pressure for prices to rise, Ma said at a news conference. Still, he said, "The fundamentals of China's long-term steady economic growth have not changed."
2012年，由于全球经济不景气和物价上涨的压力，中国面临着“复杂性与挑战”，马建堂在新闻发布会上说，“保持经济长时期稳健增长依然是中国不变的基本原则。”
Growth in the three months ending in December was the slowest since the second quarter of 2009, when the economy expanded 7.9 percent.
到12月为止的三个月经济增长是2009年二季度以来最低的一次，仅为7.9个百分点。
Retail sales growth rebounded to 18.1 percent from November's 17.1 percent while factory output rose 12.8 percent, up from November's 12.4 percent.
零售业增长从11月的17.1个百分点反弹回18.1个百分点，工厂出货从11月的12.4个百分点上涨到12.8个百分点。
"This all reaffirms our outlook on China for a soft landing," said Moody's Analytics economist Glenn Levine in a report. "Export demand has cooled, but domestic demand is still running strong."
“这再一次确认了我们对于中国经济软着陆的展望，”穆迪评级的经济学家格伦雷弗恩在一份报告中指出，“出口需求开始冷却，但是内需依然强劲。”
Consumer inflation, a volatile element in a society where poor families spend up to half their incomes on food, edged down in December to 4.1 percent after hitting a 37-month high of 6.5 percent in July.
通货膨胀，社会的一个不稳定因素，贫穷家庭在食物上花掉一半的收入，十二月通货膨胀已从冲到37个月以来最高的6.5个百分点的7月下降到4.1个百分点。
That could give Beijing leeway to stimulate the economy, helping small companies that have been hurt by plunging export demand and squeezed by lending curbs, forcing thousands out of business and wiping out jobs.
这可能带给北京刺激经济的余地，帮助那些被骤跌的出口需求和紧缩借贷所伤害，数以千计的人们丢掉生意与工作的中小企业。
Analysts expect Beijing to try to stimulate growth with an interest rate cut, tax cuts or other measures. The central bank promised pro-growth measures this month to help entrepreneurs though it also pointed to inflation pressures and global uncertainties and said its monetary policy will stay "prudent."
分析家希望北京以降低利率，减税以及其他措施来刺激经济增长。央行承诺本月将实行推动经济措施来帮助企业家渡过难关，虽然央行同时也指出通货膨胀的压力，全球经济的不确定性，央行表示中央金融政策将继续保持“谨慎”。
Also in 2011, China's urban population exceeded the number of rural dwellers for the first time, rising to 51.3 percent of the nation's 1.3 billion people, the government reported.
政府报告指出，同样是2011年，中国的城市居民人口首次超过了农民居民人口，上升到13亿人口中的51.3个百分点。
Industry surveys show manufacturing and exports contracted in November and December, while a slowdown in real estate sales triggered by government efforts to stop speculation and cool surging housing prices has sparked concern about the impact on the overall economy. December import growth fell to 11.8 percent, barely half the previous month's 22.1 percent gain.
产业调查显示11月跟12月制造业与出口有所减退。同时在为阻止投机、稳定疯涨的房价的政府努力下，房地产销售也开始减退，这激起了地产冷却对总体经济冲击力的关切。12月的进口增长降到11.8个百分点，几乎只有前一月取得的22.1个百分点的一半。
"The slowdown has yet to come to an end," said economist Zhang Xinfa at China Galaxy Securities in Beijing.
“经济疲软该是到头了，”中国北京银河证券的经济学家张新法说。
Analysts say Beijing still needs to boost consumer spending to reduce reliance on exports and investment to drive growth.
分析家认为北京依然需要提升内需消费来减少经济增长对于出口和投资的依赖。
The communist government has pledged for years to reorient its economy but is only starting to make progress after its stimulus in response to the 2008 global crisis fueled a surge in construction spending.
共产党政府多年以来一直承诺改变经济结构，作为对2008年全球经济衰退的反应而推行的由基础建设推动的经济刺激政策才刚开始取得进展。
Ma, the statistics official, pointed to the shift in population toward cities and said that might help to spur consumption growth.
国家统计局局长马建堂指出，人口向城市的转移可能对促进经济增长有所帮助。
"If we can rely more on domestic consumption," said Credit Agricole CIB's Cheung, "that will help the economy to sail through all these headwinds."
“如果我们能更多的依赖于内需消费，”法国农业信贷/兴业银行的张先生说，“将有利于我们的经济逆风前进。”
评论：
Zhuubaajie95 Fans23 hours ago( 7:58 PM)
By George!! Slowest in 2 years!! Boohoo, the sky is falling!!9.2% is still the highest in the world (at least for major economies) in 2011 no? It is also how many TIMES the growth in America?
我的老天！！！两年来的最低水平！！！嚎啕大哭啊！！！天要塌了！！！9.2个百分点依然是2011年世界最高（至少就主要经济体而言）不是吗？这依然是美国增长的多少倍？？？？
Casey Hutchinson11 Fans05:24 PM on 01/17/2012
China's GDP might have slowed BUT, in the past 30 years,Chin-a's gross domestic product has expanded by an average 10% a year in that period. China has also become one of the world's leading destinatio-ns for foreign investment-.
中国的GDP可能是减慢了，但是，过去30年利中国国内产品总额是以10%的平均增长率在膨胀，中国同时也成为世界主要的国外投资目的地！
Zhuubaajie95 Fans23 hours ago( 8:02 PM)
I think few in America actually think along those lines. Average 9% growth means a DOUBLING of living standards every 8 years (for the last 33, starting from 1978). That is, the average buying power of the averaqe Chinese grow by 2^4, or 1,600% of what it was in 1978. Very few have experience-d that, and therefore could not comprehend-. Beijing appears to be focused on one, the most important, human right that a government can do something about - the right of the largest number of citizens go have their lives improve year after year.
（回复楼上）我认为美国人很少顺着这种思路思考。平均9%的增长率意味着每8年生活水平就会翻一番（自1978年起的过去33年）。这也意味着，中国普通家庭的平均购买力从1978年来上升了16倍，或者说1600个百分点。很少有人有这样的经历，因此他们无法理解。北京看起来始终坚定不移地锁定着人权中政府能致力的最重要部分——最庞大人口国家的人民年复一年提高生活水平的权利。
Casey Hutchinson11 Fans19 hours ago(11:24 PM)
I agree that Beijing's focus on individual personal growth is impressive (then again 1,600% of "peanuts" is still peanuts. I also agree with their one child policy. The rest of the world will one day be forced to adopt the same policy, like it or not, otherwise the world population will eventually explode. I however think China has great strides to make in human right. I would fear living in China. I see the current Obama regime trying to adopt the socialist values of China, right under the nose of the ignorant American populous.
（回复楼上）我同意北京致力改善个人生活水平的结果是醒目的，不过生活水平提升了16倍的奴民依然是奴民，我也认可他们的一胎政策。世界的其他地区终有一天也会被迫采用同样的政策，不管喜不喜欢，不然地球人口数目最终会爆炸！不过我也认为中国在人权上取得的进步是跨越式的。我还是会恐惧在中国生活。
我看到现在的奥巴马政权正在试着采用中国的社会主义价值观，就在愚昧的美国人眼皮底下。
1 Fans05:15 PM on 01/17/2012
it should the people of the united states are its biggest buyer but we have no money now for chineee junk . i know people from china they say [ CHINEE NO GOOD NO GOOD TO BUY ]
这本来该是美国人民享受的，我们是全球最大的买家，但是我们现在没钱买那些中国垃圾了。我知道中国人怎么说[中国货不好不好别买
ALECTRO46 Fans04:50 PM on 01/17/2012
China is on course for a bitter bubble burst. Here is why. When an economy starts from near zero, huge incrementa-l growth is easy. To increase 100 100%, you need only 100 more. as the economy grows and requires growth at 9% or 10% to prevent it from collapsing (as China does today) the problem gets more difficult. Now as they approach a $6 trillion economy, it takes $600 bn in growth to make that 10% number. This geometric growth has a limit. Even with developmen-t of an internal middle class and currency manipulati-on to expand foreign trade, the ability to grow is finite and subject to constraint-s. Labor wants more, natural resources are limited, ability to expand infrastruc-ture is limited by materials, ability to manage projects, and environmen-tal limits. Not this year but in 5 years perhaps - the limits are approachin-g and they will strike with disastrous economic, political, and environmen-tal consequenc-es.
中国正走向痛苦的经济泡沫爆裂。我告诉你为什么。当一个经济体以接近0的起点开始时，庞大的总量增长是非常容易的。要增加100%只需要100就够了。当经济体成长起来，需要保持9%-10%才能避免经济崩溃的时候，问题就变得困难了。现在他们的经济总量已接近6万亿美元，需要每年增加6000亿美元才能保持10%的经济增长率。这种几何级的增长是有限的。即使是在国内中产阶级的壮大，操纵汇率以扩张外贸的条件下，增长的能力依然有限，有许多限制。劳动者想要得到更多，本土资源是有限的，基础建设的扩张能力又受限于材料，工程管理的能力又受限于环境限制。今年或者也许5年之内——这些限制条件都将逐渐显现，他们将与灾难性的经济、政治和环境问题搏斗了。
Zhuubaajie95 Fans23 hours ago( 7:55 PM)
Wow, such brilliance in analysis and prediction-!!Except that line's been around for the last 20 years? China's growth did not come from trade. It came from PRODUCTIVI-TY GAINS. So the allegation of currency manipulati-on as a major factor to GDP growth is silly. See:http://www-.iariw.org-/papers/20-07/ozyurt.-pdfThe conclusion of the paper was that, up to 2005, most of that productivi-ty gain in China came from capital accumulati-on (having better equipment/-technology and more efficaciou-s use of other input factors). If the Chinese currency were of higher value the cost of imports (as production factors) would have been even more favorable (cheaper), thereby driving higher growth. Yes it has to be balanced against having export prices that are higher, but on balance a stronger RMB would have meant higher growth. Look at the last couple of decades - when the US dollar was high, that was when American growth was also high.
哇，如此精妙的分析与预言！不过你说的这些问题过去20年不是一直存在吗？中国的增长不是来自于贸易，而是来自于生产力收益。所以你的操纵汇率是中国GDP增长的主要因素的主张是可笑的。看这里：
http://www-.iariw.org-/papers/20-07/ozyurt.-pdf
这份报告的结论是，直到2005年，中国的生产力收益的大部分来自于资本积累（更好的生产设备/生产技术和其他投入因素的更有效运用）。如果如你所言中国的汇率提高的话对进口来说（就生产设备而言），对他们甚至是更有利的（更便宜），也将给他们带来更高的增长率。没错此消彼长他们的出口价格也会更高，但是两两相抵，强劲的人民币意味着更高的增长率。看看上两个10年——当美元价格高涨的时候，也是美国经济高涨的时候。
pslcitizenIntelligence is the ability to adapt to change.147 Fans03:02 PM on 01/17/2012
Uh oh. Won't be long before they will want to collect on the debt we owe them...
啊......哦，要不了多久他们就会来收我们欠他们的债了。
dknowles60101 Fans03:25 PM on 01/17/2012
hear! hear!
（回复楼上）
知道了知道了！！！（表示不满）
ALECTRO46 Fans04:52 PM on 01/17/2012
They will do absolutely nothing to jeopardize their most important market, the USA.
（回复楼上）显而易见他们不会做任何会令他们最重要的市场—美利坚—陷入危境的任何事。
Zhuubaajie95 Fans23 hours ago( 8:03 PM)
UNLESS . . . .
（回复楼上）除非......（美国不再是中国最重要的市场......）
dcol47 Fans02:28 PM on 01/17/2012
The product quality and workmanshi-p is so poor on all the junk that is made in China. Even the higher end product is total garbage. Americans would be ashamed to make such rubbish. You would think it would be easy to compete with them. Guess you get what you pay for.
中国制造的所有垃圾的产品质量和工艺都烂到无法想象。即使是高端产品都完全是垃圾。美国人要是生产出这样的垃圾会羞愧无地的。你可以认为跟他们竞争是非常容易的。你得到的跟你所付出的是成正比。
DAE665 Fans02:49 PM on 01/17/2012
The TV i bought from China three years ago works fine. The computer I bought was made in China. Works fine. There's really nothing that I've bought that's been made in China that I've found to be inferior. What you say is just not true.
（回复楼上）
我3年前从中国买的电视运行良好。我买的电脑也是中国制造，运行良好。我买的所有中国制造的东西没有一件被我发现是劣等品。你说的不是真相。
6 Fans04:53 PM on 01/17/2012
85% of the quality, 50% of the price. People will buy and be happy to accept the quality which is improving every day.
85%的质量，50%的价格，人们会很乐意接受并购买这种价格下的质量，再说他们的质量每天都在改善。
Jestnow38 Fans02:20 PM on 01/17/2012
Well DAAH!, the worst is yet to come. When you have "all" the jobs who in other parts of the world can afford your products. Read your own furtune cookie...
啊！！！最坏的情况还是来临了！！！中国人拥有“所有”的工作而世界的其他地区能负担得起他们的产品。读读你自己的幸运饼吧......
JoeMomma326 Fans01:51 PM on 01/17/2012
Not another soft landing...-aka epic collapse!
没什么所谓的软着陆......只有宏大的经济崩溃！！！
fredlynn07141 Fans01:31 PM on 01/17/2012
Doesn't hurt my heart!
读完新闻我一点也不伤心哦！！！一点也不伤心！！！！
Enrique IglesiasTHE CHINA GAME645 Fans05:02 PM on 01/17/2012
Well, think about this; if the Chinese Economy collapse's the bread line won't be worth getting into as there won't be anything as our Economy will have tanked as well; that's what Golbal Economics are all about... the house of cards has to stay in place or we all will collapse with it...
话说回来，想想这个吧：如果中国经济崩溃，那些领救济的队伍将是不值得对此发生兴趣的，因为我们美国也是地主家没有余粮，这就是全球经济的含义了。扑克搭起的房子要好好保持原位，不然我们都得崩溃......
Bravo4110 Fans01:26 PM on 01/17/2012
In the Korean war the veterans would to tell me.the Chinese had lots of soldiers but not enough weapons, So, the ones who didn't would follow the ones that did and police up the dead and wounded's to continue the attack. Is it that bad yet..I hope !!!
从朝鲜战争中回来的退伍老兵曾告诉我，那些志愿军有大量的士兵却没有足够的武器，所以那些没有枪的士兵就跟在有枪的士兵背后，然后在阵亡者跟伤者手中捡起枪来继续攻击。现在是不是已经这么糟了！！我希望！
Lochness71Here I am.250 Fans04:18 PM on 01/17/2012
Russian's did the same during WWII during the battle of Staligrad.
（回复楼上）苏联人在二战斯大林格勒战役中也是这样做的。
Zhuubaajie95 Fans23 hours ago( 8:06 PM)
Who won? [hint: the Chicoms started at the Yalu when it started.]
（回复楼上）谁赢了？
[提示：中国GCD是从鸭绿江边开始进攻的
OnTheOtherSideOfEarth3 Fans14 hours ago( 4:30 AM)
No winner, a bloody tie cost thousands of lives.
（回复楼上）没有赢家。成千上万跳性命换来的一场血淋淋的妥协。
DAE
665 Fans
01:24 PM on 01/17/2012
This is exactly what the Chinese government was attempting to do and they did it. So all the comments here predicting a bubble bursting are flights of fancy.More enlighteni-ng is the fact that "in 2011, China's urban population exceeded the number of rural dwellers for the first time, rising to 51.3% of the nation's 1.3 billion people." This is an amazing accomplish-ment. As recently as 1980 the rural/urba-n ratio in China was approximat-ely 20%/80% The shift from rural to urban is one of the main hallmarks of economic developmen-t. In India the Rural – Urban distributi-on is 68.84% to 31.16% (2011 census) only slightly different from 2001 when it was 72.19% to 27.81%. We reached the 50% threshold in 1920 and didn't reach the 66% urban level until 1950. We're currently at 75%.
这就是中国政府试图做到的和已经做到的成果。所以这些众多评论里面预言着中国将发生经济泡沫破裂全是一段段幻想。
更富有启发性的事实是“2011年，中国的城市居民人口首次超过了农民居民人口，上升到13亿人口中的51.3个百分点 ”，这是一项了不起的成就。就在上世纪80年代中国的农村/城市人口比例还是大约80%比20%，农村居民向城市迁移是经济发展的主要标志之一。印度的农村/城市人口分布还是68.84%的农村居民对31.16%的城市居民（2011年人口普查数据），跟2001年的72.19%比27.81%相比只有些微变化。我们美国在上世纪20年代达到了50%的门槛，一直到50年代才达到66%，我们现在是75%的城市居民比例。
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Robert SF
812 Fans
02:15 PM on 01/17/2012
It may be an accomplish-ment, but it's going to make things worse when the inevitable fall comes. At least you can live off the land out in the countrysid-e. You can't do that in the big city. In the big city, if you can't find work, you can't pay rent, and if you can't pay rent, you live in the streets. That's one of the problems we're having in our own highly urbanized country.
（回复楼上）
也许如你所说，这是一项成就，但当不可避免的经济衰退来临时这会让事情变得更糟。在农村至少你能靠耕地过活，在大城市你没办法这样生存。在大城市，如果你找不到工作，你付不起房租，你付不起房租就只好睡大街。这是在我们这样高度城市化的国家里同样存在的问题。
DAE
665 Fans
02:45 PM on 01/17/2012
There is no "inevitabl-e fall." As an archeologi-st working in China in the 1980s and 90s I spent months living in rural China, in areas where no foreigners ever visited. I thought it was great. There was no dire poverty as still exists in parts of Africa and elsewhere. But life was extremely simple. The movement to the cities is a universal aspect of modernizat-ion and economic developmen-t. Its usually accompanie-d by vast upheaval and human suffering. This has been greatly mitigated in China. Believe it or not.
（回复楼上）
没什么“不可避免的衰退”。作为一名上世纪80年代到90年代在中国工作的考古学家，我在中国农村呆过好几个月，在那些根本没有外国人去过的地区。我认为那里是了不起的。那里没有像非洲地区跟其他地区依然存在的令人恐惧的机皇。但是生活极端简朴。农村人口向城市迁移是现代化和经济发展的普遍标志。这通常伴随着向上的动乱和人民受苦，但在中国这种痛苦大大减轻了。信不信随你。
赫芬顿邮报：中国经济增长放缓到两年来最低水平
原帖地址：http://www.huffingtonpost.com/20 ... 3.html?ref=business
China GDP Growth Slows To Lowest Level In Two Years
中国GDP增长放缓到两年来的最低水平
BEIJING — China appears on track to avoid an abrupt economic slowdown with possible global repercussions after growth eased to a still robust 8.9 percent in the last quarter of 2011.
北京——在2011第四季度GDP增长放缓却依然有强健的8.9个百分点之后，中国似乎正将避免全球衰退影响下的经济骤跌纳入议程。
The expansion in the world's second-largest economy was the slowest in 2 1/2 years but December retail sales and factory output accelerated, data showed Tuesday. Growth in the previous quarter was 9.1 percent.
周二的数据显示，这个世界第二大经济体的膨胀已放缓到2年半以来的最低水平，但12月的零售与工厂出货依然在加速成长，前一季度的增长是9.1个百分点。
"Today's outcome seems to confirm a `soft landing' scenario," said Frances Cheung of Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong.
“目前的结果看起来印证了中国经济正实现`软着陆`的预测，”香港法国农业信贷/兴业银行的弗兰西斯张说。
China is one of the biggest importers and slower growth could have global repercussions if it cuts demand for iron ore, industrial components and other goods from Australia, Brazil, Southeast Asia and elsewhere.
中国是最大的进口国之一，减缓的经济增长可能带来全球效应，如果中国削减对于铁矿、工业零件和其他来自澳大利亚、巴西、东南亚和其他地区的产品需求的话。
Growth decelerated in 2011 as Beijing hiked interest rates and tightened investment curbs to prevent overheating and tame politically dangerous inflation. Communist leaders reversed course and started easing lending late in the year after plunging U.S. and European export demand raised the threat of job losses and unrest.
自从北京提高利率缩紧投资限制以防止经济过热和驯服可带来政治危机的通货膨胀之后，2011年经济开始放缓。在美欧出口需求骤跌提升了失业与动荡威胁之后，下半年共产主义领导人改变路线放宽了贷款。
The slowdown was in line with government plans, said Ma Jiantang, commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics. He said the "ideal situation" would be to keep growth between 8.5 percent and 9 percent, with inflation low.
经济衰退与政府的考量一致，国家统计局局长马建堂告诉记者。他认为“理想状态”是保持低通货膨胀下8.5到9个百分点的增长。
In 2012, China faces "complexity and challenges" due to global malaise and pressure for prices to rise, Ma said at a news conference. Still, he said, "The fundamentals of China's long-term steady economic growth have not changed."
2012年，由于全球经济不景气和物价上涨的压力，中国面临着“复杂性与挑战”，马建堂在新闻发布会上说，“保持经济长时期稳健增长依然是中国不变的基本原则。”
Growth in the three months ending in December was the slowest since the second quarter of 2009, when the economy expanded 7.9 percent.
到12月为止的三个月经济增长是2009年二季度以来最低的一次，仅为7.9个百分点。
Retail sales growth rebounded to 18.1 percent from November's 17.1 percent while factory output rose 12.8 percent, up from November's 12.4 percent.
零售业增长从11月的17.1个百分点反弹回18.1个百分点，工厂出货从11月的12.4个百分点上涨到12.8个百分点。
"This all reaffirms our outlook on China for a soft landing," said Moody's Analytics economist Glenn Levine in a report. "Export demand has cooled, but domestic demand is still running strong."
“这再一次确认了我们对于中国经济软着陆的展望，”穆迪评级的经济学家格伦雷弗恩在一份报告中指出，“出口需求开始冷却，但是内需依然强劲。”
Consumer inflation, a volatile element in a society where poor families spend up to half their incomes on food, edged down in December to 4.1 percent after hitting a 37-month high of 6.5 percent in July.
通货膨胀，社会的一个不稳定因素，贫穷家庭在食物上花掉一半的收入，十二月通货膨胀已从冲到37个月以来最高的6.5个百分点的7月下降到4.1个百分点。
That could give Beijing leeway to stimulate the economy, helping small companies that have been hurt by plunging export demand and squeezed by lending curbs, forcing thousands out of business and wiping out jobs.
这可能带给北京刺激经济的余地，帮助那些被骤跌的出口需求和紧缩借贷所伤害，数以千计的人们丢掉生意与工作的中小企业。
Analysts expect Beijing to try to stimulate growth with an interest rate cut, tax cuts or other measures. The central bank promised pro-growth measures this month to help entrepreneurs though it also pointed to inflation pressures and global uncertainties and said its monetary policy will stay "prudent."
分析家希望北京以降低利率，减税以及其他措施来刺激经济增长。央行承诺本月将实行推动经济措施来帮助企业家渡过难关，虽然央行同时也指出通货膨胀的压力，全球经济的不确定性，央行表示中央金融政策将继续保持“谨慎”。
Also in 2011, China's urban population exceeded the number of rural dwellers for the first time, rising to 51.3 percent of the nation's 1.3 billion people, the government reported.
政府报告指出，同样是2011年，中国的城市居民人口首次超过了农民居民人口，上升到13亿人口中的51.3个百分点。
Industry surveys show manufacturing and exports contracted in November and December, while a slowdown in real estate sales triggered by government efforts to stop speculation and cool surging housing prices has sparked concern about the impact on the overall economy. December import growth fell to 11.8 percent, barely half the previous month's 22.1 percent gain.
产业调查显示11月跟12月制造业与出口有所减退。同时在为阻止投机、稳定疯涨的房价的政府努力下，房地产销售也开始减退，这激起了地产冷却对总体经济冲击力的关切。12月的进口增长降到11.8个百分点，几乎只有前一月取得的22.1个百分点的一半。
"The slowdown has yet to come to an end," said economist Zhang Xinfa at China Galaxy Securities in Beijing.
“经济疲软该是到头了，”中国北京银河证券的经济学家张新法说。
Analysts say Beijing still needs to boost consumer spending to reduce reliance on exports and investment to drive growth.
分析家认为北京依然需要提升内需消费来减少经济增长对于出口和投资的依赖。
The communist government has pledged for years to reorient its economy but is only starting to make progress after its stimulus in response to the 2008 global crisis fueled a surge in construction spending.
共产党政府多年以来一直承诺改变经济结构，作为对2008年全球经济衰退的反应而推行的由基础建设推动的经济刺激政策才刚开始取得进展。
Ma, the statistics official, pointed to the shift in population toward cities and said that might help to spur consumption growth.
国家统计局局长马建堂指出，人口向城市的转移可能对促进经济增长有所帮助。
"If we can rely more on domestic consumption," said Credit Agricole CIB's Cheung, "that will help the economy to sail through all these headwinds."
“如果我们能更多的依赖于内需消费，”法国农业信贷/兴业银行的张先生说，“将有利于我们的经济逆风前进。”
评论：
Zhuubaajie95 Fans23 hours ago( 7:58 PM)
By George!! Slowest in 2 years!! Boohoo, the sky is falling!!9.2% is still the highest in the world (at least for major economies) in 2011 no? It is also how many TIMES the growth in America?
我的老天！！！两年来的最低水平！！！嚎啕大哭啊！！！天要塌了！！！9.2个百分点依然是2011年世界最高（至少就主要经济体而言）不是吗？这依然是美国增长的多少倍？？？？
Casey Hutchinson11 Fans05:24 PM on 01/17/2012
China's GDP might have slowed BUT, in the past 30 years,Chin-a's gross domestic product has expanded by an average 10% a year in that period. China has also become one of the world's leading destinatio-ns for foreign investment-.
中国的GDP可能是减慢了，但是，过去30年利中国国内产品总额是以10%的平均增长率在膨胀，中国同时也成为世界主要的国外投资目的地！
Zhuubaajie95 Fans23 hours ago( 8:02 PM)
I think few in America actually think along those lines. Average 9% growth means a DOUBLING of living standards every 8 years (for the last 33, starting from 1978). That is, the average buying power of the averaqe Chinese grow by 2^4, or 1,600% of what it was in 1978. Very few have experience-d that, and therefore could not comprehend-. Beijing appears to be focused on one, the most important, human right that a government can do something about - the right of the largest number of citizens go have their lives improve year after year.
（回复楼上）我认为美国人很少顺着这种思路思考。平均9%的增长率意味着每8年生活水平就会翻一番（自1978年起的过去33年）。这也意味着，中国普通家庭的平均购买力从1978年来上升了16倍，或者说1600个百分点。很少有人有这样的经历，因此他们无法理解。北京看起来始终坚定不移地锁定着人权中政府能致力的最重要部分——最庞大人口国家的人民年复一年提高生活水平的权利。
Casey Hutchinson11 Fans19 hours ago(11:24 PM)
I agree that Beijing's focus on individual personal growth is impressive (then again 1,600% of "peanuts" is still peanuts. I also agree with their one child policy. The rest of the world will one day be forced to adopt the same policy, like it or not, otherwise the world population will eventually explode. I however think China has great strides to make in human right. I would fear living in China. I see the current Obama regime trying to adopt the socialist values of China, right under the nose of the ignorant American populous.
（回复楼上）我同意北京致力改善个人生活水平的结果是醒目的，不过生活水平提升了16倍的奴民依然是奴民，我也认可他们的一胎政策。世界的其他地区终有一天也会被迫采用同样的政策，不管喜不喜欢，不然地球人口数目最终会爆炸！不过我也认为中国在人权上取得的进步是跨越式的。我还是会恐惧在中国生活。
我看到现在的奥巴马政权正在试着采用中国的社会主义价值观，就在愚昧的美国人眼皮底下。
1 Fans05:15 PM on 01/17/2012
it should the people of the united states are its biggest buyer but we have no money now for chineee junk . i know people from china they say [ CHINEE NO GOOD NO GOOD TO BUY ]
这本来该是美国人民享受的，我们是全球最大的买家，但是我们现在没钱买那些中国垃圾了。我知道中国人怎么说[中国货不好不好别买
ALECTRO46 Fans04:50 PM on 01/17/2012
China is on course for a bitter bubble burst. Here is why. When an economy starts from near zero, huge incrementa-l growth is easy. To increase 100 100%, you need only 100 more. as the economy grows and requires growth at 9% or 10% to prevent it from collapsing (as China does today) the problem gets more difficult. Now as they approach a $6 trillion economy, it takes $600 bn in growth to make that 10% number. This geometric growth has a limit. Even with developmen-t of an internal middle class and currency manipulati-on to expand foreign trade, the ability to grow is finite and subject to constraint-s. Labor wants more, natural resources are limited, ability to expand infrastruc-ture is limited by materials, ability to manage projects, and environmen-tal limits. Not this year but in 5 years perhaps - the limits are approachin-g and they will strike with disastrous economic, political, and environmen-tal consequenc-es.
中国正走向痛苦的经济泡沫爆裂。我告诉你为什么。当一个经济体以接近0的起点开始时，庞大的总量增长是非常容易的。要增加100%只需要100就够了。当经济体成长起来，需要保持9%-10%才能避免经济崩溃的时候，问题就变得困难了。现在他们的经济总量已接近6万亿美元，需要每年增加6000亿美元才能保持10%的经济增长率。这种几何级的增长是有限的。即使是在国内中产阶级的壮大，操纵汇率以扩张外贸的条件下，增长的能力依然有限，有许多限制。劳动者想要得到更多，本土资源是有限的，基础建设的扩张能力又受限于材料，工程管理的能力又受限于环境限制。今年或者也许5年之内——这些限制条件都将逐渐显现，他们将与灾难性的经济、政治和环境问题搏斗了。
Zhuubaajie95 Fans23 hours ago( 7:55 PM)
Wow, such brilliance in analysis and prediction-!!Except that line's been around for the last 20 years? China's growth did not come from trade. It came from PRODUCTIVI-TY GAINS. So the allegation of currency manipulati-on as a major factor to GDP growth is silly. See:http://www-.iariw.org-/papers/20-07/ozyurt.-pdfThe conclusion of the paper was that, up to 2005, most of that productivi-ty gain in China came from capital accumulati-on (having better equipment/-technology and more efficaciou-s use of other input factors). If the Chinese currency were of higher value the cost of imports (as production factors) would have been even more favorable (cheaper), thereby driving higher growth. Yes it has to be balanced against having export prices that are higher, but on balance a stronger RMB would have meant higher growth. Look at the last couple of decades - when the US dollar was high, that was when American growth was also high.
哇，如此精妙的分析与预言！不过你说的这些问题过去20年不是一直存在吗？中国的增长不是来自于贸易，而是来自于生产力收益。所以你的操纵汇率是中国GDP增长的主要因素的主张是可笑的。看这里：
http://www-.iariw.org-/papers/20-07/ozyurt.-pdf
这份报告的结论是，直到2005年，中国的生产力收益的大部分来自于资本积累（更好的生产设备/生产技术和其他投入因素的更有效运用）。如果如你所言中国的汇率提高的话对进口来说（就生产设备而言），对他们甚至是更有利的（更便宜），也将给他们带来更高的增长率。没错此消彼长他们的出口价格也会更高，但是两两相抵，强劲的人民币意味着更高的增长率。看看上两个10年——当美元价格高涨的时候，也是美国经济高涨的时候。
pslcitizenIntelligence is the ability to adapt to change.147 Fans03:02 PM on 01/17/2012
Uh oh. Won't be long before they will want to collect on the debt we owe them...
啊......哦，要不了多久他们就会来收我们欠他们的债了。
dknowles60101 Fans03:25 PM on 01/17/2012
hear! hear!
（回复楼上）
知道了知道了！！！（表示不满）
ALECTRO46 Fans04:52 PM on 01/17/2012
They will do absolutely nothing to jeopardize their most important market, the USA.
（回复楼上）显而易见他们不会做任何会令他们最重要的市场—美利坚—陷入危境的任何事。
Zhuubaajie95 Fans23 hours ago( 8:03 PM)
UNLESS . . . .
（回复楼上）除非......（美国不再是中国最重要的市场......）
dcol47 Fans02:28 PM on 01/17/2012
The product quality and workmanshi-p is so poor on all the junk that is made in China. Even the higher end product is total garbage. Americans would be ashamed to make such rubbish. You would think it would be easy to compete with them. Guess you get what you pay for.
中国制造的所有垃圾的产品质量和工艺都烂到无法想象。即使是高端产品都完全是垃圾。美国人要是生产出这样的垃圾会羞愧无地的。你可以认为跟他们竞争是非常容易的。你得到的跟你所付出的是成正比。
DAE665 Fans02:49 PM on 01/17/2012
The TV i bought from China three years ago works fine. The computer I bought was made in China. Works fine. There's really nothing that I've bought that's been made in China that I've found to be inferior. What you say is just not true.
（回复楼上）
我3年前从中国买的电视运行良好。我买的电脑也是中国制造，运行良好。我买的所有中国制造的东西没有一件被我发现是劣等品。你说的不是真相。
6 Fans04:53 PM on 01/17/2012
85% of the quality, 50% of the price. People will buy and be happy to accept the quality which is improving every day.
85%的质量，50%的价格，人们会很乐意接受并购买这种价格下的质量，再说他们的质量每天都在改善。
Jestnow38 Fans02:20 PM on 01/17/2012
Well DAAH!, the worst is yet to come. When you have "all" the jobs who in other parts of the world can afford your products. Read your own furtune cookie...
啊！！！最坏的情况还是来临了！！！中国人拥有“所有”的工作而世界的其他地区能负担得起他们的产品。读读你自己的幸运饼吧......
JoeMomma326 Fans01:51 PM on 01/17/2012
Not another soft landing...-aka epic collapse!
没什么所谓的软着陆......只有宏大的经济崩溃！！！
fredlynn07141 Fans01:31 PM on 01/17/2012
Doesn't hurt my heart!
读完新闻我一点也不伤心哦！！！一点也不伤心！！！！
Enrique IglesiasTHE CHINA GAME645 Fans05:02 PM on 01/17/2012
Well, think about this; if the Chinese Economy collapse's the bread line won't be worth getting into as there won't be anything as our Economy will have tanked as well; that's what Golbal Economics are all about... the house of cards has to stay in place or we all will collapse with it...
话说回来，想想这个吧：如果中国经济崩溃，那些领救济的队伍将是不值得对此发生兴趣的，因为我们美国也是地主家没有余粮，这就是全球经济的含义了。扑克搭起的房子要好好保持原位，不然我们都得崩溃......
Bravo4110 Fans01:26 PM on 01/17/2012
In the Korean war the veterans would to tell me.the Chinese had lots of soldiers but not enough weapons, So, the ones who didn't would follow the ones that did and police up the dead and wounded's to continue the attack. Is it that bad yet..I hope !!!
从朝鲜战争中回来的退伍老兵曾告诉我，那些志愿军有大量的士兵却没有足够的武器，所以那些没有枪的士兵就跟在有枪的士兵背后，然后在阵亡者跟伤者手中捡起枪来继续攻击。现在是不是已经这么糟了！！我希望！
Lochness71Here I am.250 Fans04:18 PM on 01/17/2012
Russian's did the same during WWII during the battle of Staligrad.
（回复楼上）苏联人在二战斯大林格勒战役中也是这样做的。
Zhuubaajie95 Fans23 hours ago( 8:06 PM)
Who won? [hint: the Chicoms started at the Yalu when it started.]
（回复楼上）谁赢了？
[提示：中国GCD是从鸭绿江边开始进攻的
OnTheOtherSideOfEarth3 Fans14 hours ago( 4:30 AM)
No winner, a bloody tie cost thousands of lives.
（回复楼上）没有赢家。成千上万跳性命换来的一场血淋淋的妥协。
DAE
665 Fans
01:24 PM on 01/17/2012
This is exactly what the Chinese government was attempting to do and they did it. So all the comments here predicting a bubble bursting are flights of fancy.More enlighteni-ng is the fact that "in 2011, China's urban population exceeded the number of rural dwellers for the first time, rising to 51.3% of the nation's 1.3 billion people." This is an amazing accomplish-ment. As recently as 1980 the rural/urba-n ratio in China was approximat-ely 20%/80% The shift from rural to urban is one of the main hallmarks of economic developmen-t. In India the Rural – Urban distributi-on is 68.84% to 31.16% (2011 census) only slightly different from 2001 when it was 72.19% to 27.81%. We reached the 50% threshold in 1920 and didn't reach the 66% urban level until 1950. We're currently at 75%.
这就是中国政府试图做到的和已经做到的成果。所以这些众多评论里面预言着中国将发生经济泡沫破裂全是一段段幻想。
更富有启发性的事实是“2011年，中国的城市居民人口首次超过了农民居民人口，上升到13亿人口中的51.3个百分点 ”，这是一项了不起的成就。就在上世纪80年代中国的农村/城市人口比例还是大约80%比20%，农村居民向城市迁移是经济发展的主要标志之一。印度的农村/城市人口分布还是68.84%的农村居民对31.16%的城市居民（2011年人口普查数据），跟2001年的72.19%比27.81%相比只有些微变化。我们美国在上世纪20年代达到了50%的门槛，一直到50年代才达到66%，我们现在是75%的城市居民比例。
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Robert SF
812 Fans
02:15 PM on 01/17/2012
It may be an accomplish-ment, but it's going to make things worse when the inevitable fall comes. At least you can live off the land out in the countrysid-e. You can't do that in the big city. In the big city, if you can't find work, you can't pay rent, and if you can't pay rent, you live in the streets. That's one of the problems we're having in our own highly urbanized country.
（回复楼上）
也许如你所说，这是一项成就，但当不可避免的经济衰退来临时这会让事情变得更糟。在农村至少你能靠耕地过活，在大城市你没办法这样生存。在大城市，如果你找不到工作，你付不起房租，你付不起房租就只好睡大街。这是在我们这样高度城市化的国家里同样存在的问题。
DAE
665 Fans
02:45 PM on 01/17/2012
There is no "inevitabl-e fall." As an archeologi-st working in China in the 1980s and 90s I spent months living in rural China, in areas where no foreigners ever visited. I thought it was great. There was no dire poverty as still exists in parts of Africa and elsewhere. But life was extremely simple. The movement to the cities is a universal aspect of modernizat-ion and economic developmen-t. Its usually accompanie-d by vast upheaval and human suffering. This has been greatly mitigated in China. Believe it or not.
（回复楼上）
没什么“不可避免的衰退”。作为一名上世纪80年代到90年代在中国工作的考古学家，我在中国农村呆过好几个月，在那些根本没有外国人去过的地区。我认为那里是了不起的。那里没有像非洲地区跟其他地区依然存在的令人恐惧的机皇。但是生活极端简朴。农村人口向城市迁移是现代化和经济发展的普遍标志。这通常伴随着向上的动乱和人民受苦，但在中国这种痛苦大大减轻了。信不信随你。
不错的文~
nc越来越少啊，现在怎么没人喷沃尔玛了？
美国居然有那么多冷静党?果然米地瓜才是兔子最大的对手阿....
头一次听说51%城镇人口啊。。。。太牛叉了
哎？这么冷静啊？
很多回复都很精彩呀，不论观点怎样。嗯，赶上超大的水平了。
冷静的人太多不是好事情啊！
哎。有人转过。而且已经被移到讨论区去鸟。。。
我很好奇你的军衔是不是用盗用他人的成品换来的..
你要转载至少也要标明转载地址啊!!!!
你要转载至少也要标明转载地址啊!!!!
龙腾网的 楼主你这种人太恶心了
相比那边的棒子还在YY棒子历史这边美D已经开始冷静了。。 果然美D才是最可怕的敌人啊。。
战忽局在哪？？ 不能让美D这么冷静下去了。。
我对MD现在又那么多冷静党表示压力很大，这样不好
逛了龙腾很长时间，感觉地理面积大的国家，像是美帝或者印度，他们网民的评论明显比棒子霓虹这些地理小国的网民要客观理性的多，虽然也有偏见，但不会一边倒的都是否定意见。
这么冷静的MD真是太可怕了！！
太长，懒得看。
Lunatica 发表于 2012-1-20 01:30 ![]()
逛了龙腾很长时间，感觉地理面积大的国家，像是美帝或者印度，他们网民的评论明显比棒子霓虹这些地理小国的 ...
这应该不是面积的问题，岛国的一般特点。
逛了龙腾很长时间，感觉地理面积大的国家，像是美帝或者印度，他们网民的评论明显比棒子霓虹这些地理小国的 ...
这应该不是面积的问题，岛国的一般特点。
管他们说什么呢，md还不是处处为自己的利益考虑
美国人就是这个样子。。。
MD果然牛叉，头脑清楚，唉...就看谁先出昏招吧
过年了 河蟹了
咋就这么多人相信《中国崩溃论》呢？ 只能说 章家墩同志功不可没啊……
大国民还是不一样，有些很有水平的。
楼主帖子最后一句话翻译得太不给力，太不时髦：应该翻译成：
不管你信不信，反正我是信了
不管你信不信，反正我是信了
sage.l 发表于 2012-1-20 01:29 ![]()
我对MD现在又那么多冷静党表示压力很大，这样不好
美国强大是因为有可以强大的人民。
我对MD现在又那么多冷静党表示压力很大，这样不好
美国强大是因为有可以强大的人民。
我最近发现来自龙腾的消息很多，而且挺有质量。有新的地方可去了呀！
评论内容的偏向性，还得看论坛性质，这应该是一个精英味很浓或者高学历技术型人员扎堆的论坛，类似于西西河，航空航天港这样的论坛。
美国果然是超级大国，老百姓的平均智商还是比较高的。
MD网络骂人的貌似比较少?
哪位大姥多翻译一下
哪位大姥多翻译一下
芭比 发表于 2012-1-20 10:56 ![]()
美国果然是超级大国，老百姓的平均智商还是比较高的。
树挪死,人挪活。敢于出门闯天下的人本来就是思维活跃勇于冒险的。
再加上生存压力逼迫,必须不停地应对挑战,能熬过淘汰命运的,至少得有点生存的资本。
美国果然是超级大国，老百姓的平均智商还是比较高的。
树挪死,人挪活。敢于出门闯天下的人本来就是思维活跃勇于冒险的。
再加上生存压力逼迫,必须不停地应对挑战,能熬过淘汰命运的,至少得有点生存的资本。
我们的战略忽悠局在哪里？MD现在居然出现了冷静帝，这样下去不行啊。
美国银真的都如此淡定，去看看那些失业者吧
呼唤章家墩同志赶快行动
看了题目，我就猜是拿啥网的。
进来一看，果然是那个网。
手法不变。
进来一看，果然是那个网。
手法不变。
wake_z 发表于 2012-1-20 04:23 ![]()
这应该不是面积的问题，岛国的一般特点。
南朝鲜不是岛国，脑残的厉害。
牛牛是岛国，冷静党挺多
这应该不是面积的问题，岛国的一般特点。
南朝鲜不是岛国，脑残的厉害。
牛牛是岛国，冷静党挺多
我们和小兔子一样，都需要继续努力啊
yjh1qa 发表于 2012-1-20 00:13 ![]()
nc越来越少啊，现在怎么没人喷沃尔玛了？
兄弟，你的头像太有爱了
nc越来越少啊，现在怎么没人喷沃尔玛了？
兄弟，你的头像太有爱了gdp减缓是好事情，总比泡沫积聚强。
PS：抵抗经济危机米国是我们的反面教材
PS：抵抗经济危机米国是我们的反面教材
其实哪个国家都有脑残人士,而且有扎堆的趋势.凭这种转贴作判断根本没有意义.因为你没有办法确定转贴的信息是不是具有代表性,所以做导向性评论是很脑补的做法
286的韬光养晦不是空的