[注意]看完“大国的脊梁-中国的重量级热兵器”需要澄清 ...

<P>总共拥有2，350件核弹头，是不可能的。</P>
<P>首先核武作为战略武器不是用来奇袭的，是用来威慑与恫吓勒索的。所以藏着掖着就没用存在价值了。中国为什么决少提核武或公布数据？因为如果核武经常挂在嘴边的人（例：赫鲁晓夫）将最终被历史视为流氓，其代表的国家也会被视为流氓国家。这是世界对超级大国的态度。</P>
<P>还不是超级大国的国家如果核武经常挂在嘴边，会马上面对国际封锁（例：北朝鲜）和舆论谴责。如果是中国的话国际封锁可以排除，但是舆论谴责是肯定的，并且任何军事行为都会变成不正义的（例：对台湾的军事行为）。</P>
<P>现在国际比较公认的中国核武和ICBM射程是：450 颗核弹头，射程6800miles（11，000KM）</P>
<P>(注：不是450颗核弹头都装备在射程6800miles的武器上,没有哪个有核国家生产一个核弹头就装备一个的，450颗库存的居多数）</P>
<P>分析:</P>
<P>1.中国是NPT（核不扩散条约）的成员且冷战期间中国没有国力和成熟的技术大量生产（文革占大部分原因）没有赶上大量制造ICBM和其他核武的舆论支持/不讨伐期。</P>
<P>2.在NATO的官方网站上的一段话：(注意这是北约2002的年度报告）</P>
<P>General Report. Draft General Report. 'Defending Democracies: Homeland Defence, Non-proliferation and Euro-Atlantic Security'
</P>
<P>http://www.nato-pa.int/default.asp?TAB=244 （第13.14.节)</P>
<P>B. BALLISTIC MISSILES

13. The actual number of ballistic missiles world-wide continues to remain well below the levels of the Cold War. However, possession of ballistic missiles is no longer confined to the great powers. Ballistic missiles are now widespread across the globe, with 28 countries possessing ballistic missiles, according to the British Ministry of Defence. According to the unclassified summary of a US National Intelligence Estimate on Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat Through 2015, published in January 2002, emerging ballistic missile states continue to rapidly increase the range, reliability, and accuracy of their missile systems, placing larger numbers of targets at risk. Intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capabilities are no longer likely to be restricted to major powers. CIA intelligence reports express concern over developments in missile technology primarily in three countries: Iran, Iraq and North Korea, while a number of analysts add China, Libya, and Syria to that list.

14. Both Russia and China maintain comprehensive ballistic missile forces with precision-guided, deep-strike capabilities, capable of reaching both Europe and North America. However, intelligence estimates indicate that the threat posed to the Alliance by Russia and China remains minimal given the current diplomatic climate. Russia's rapidly ageing missile arsenal is in decline, due to lack of funds. Unless Moscow significantly increases funding for its strategic and theatre forces, the Russian arsenal is expected to decline to less than 2,000 warheads by 2015, despite efforts to prolong the life of its Soviet-era missiles. China's ballistic missile forces, by contrast, are expected to increase several-fold by 2015, bringing the country's ICBM force to around 75-100 ICBMs, according to the estimates of the US National Intelligence Council (NIC). So far, however, China's ICBM force is small, counting no more than 20 missiles in its arsenal.
（看不懂英文的：中国的ICBM数量小于20个）</P>
<P>那496颗朝向台湾的M族如果是核弹头的活，是没有实战意义的，如果统一战争时用核武，在心理战层面没开打就已经输了，在世界舆论的谴责下其他方面也会跟着输得一面倒。到时连越南都可以加入反大陆保台湾的联盟军（美国为主是肯定的）。</P>
<P>3.如果中国今天有2350颗核弹头，不要说美国连俄国都会与我国断交的。</P>
<P>核弹头是冷战时期的产物且主要是美苏两大国在造，冷战结束两大国都不再造了。</P>
<P>你认为美苏能容忍我国可能大量制造吗？？？</P>
<P>4.再说中国正在为加入［弹道导弹管制条约］做准备。</P>
<P>其中一项就诚实交代核武数量，既然要诚实交代还造2350颗核弹头来干什么。</P>
<P>所以即使有能力，政治上是不允许的。</P>
<P>5。结论：原创“大国的脊梁-中国的重量级热兵器”的人有两种可能：</P>
<P>1.被强烈的爱国主义冲昏了头，学术水平低，视角窄。井底之蛙＋葡萄狐狸合成性格</P>
<P>2.文革时被整疯了，还在浮夸。</P>





<P>总共拥有2，350件核弹头，是不可能的。</P>
<P>首先核武作为战略武器不是用来奇袭的，是用来威慑与恫吓勒索的。所以藏着掖着就没用存在价值了。中国为什么决少提核武或公布数据？因为如果核武经常挂在嘴边的人（例：赫鲁晓夫）将最终被历史视为流氓，其代表的国家也会被视为流氓国家。这是世界对超级大国的态度。</P>
<P>还不是超级大国的国家如果核武经常挂在嘴边，会马上面对国际封锁（例：北朝鲜）和舆论谴责。如果是中国的话国际封锁可以排除，但是舆论谴责是肯定的，并且任何军事行为都会变成不正义的（例：对台湾的军事行为）。</P>
<P>现在国际比较公认的中国核武和ICBM射程是：450 颗核弹头，射程6800miles（11，000KM）</P>
<P>(注：不是450颗核弹头都装备在射程6800miles的武器上,没有哪个有核国家生产一个核弹头就装备一个的，450颗库存的居多数）</P>
<P>分析:</P>
<P>1.中国是NPT（核不扩散条约）的成员且冷战期间中国没有国力和成熟的技术大量生产（文革占大部分原因）没有赶上大量制造ICBM和其他核武的舆论支持/不讨伐期。</P>
<P>2.在NATO的官方网站上的一段话：(注意这是北约2002的年度报告）</P>
<P>General Report. Draft General Report. 'Defending Democracies: Homeland Defence, Non-proliferation and Euro-Atlantic Security'
</P>
<P>http://www.nato-pa.int/default.asp?TAB=244 （第13.14.节)</P>
<P>B. BALLISTIC MISSILES

13. The actual number of ballistic missiles world-wide continues to remain well below the levels of the Cold War. However, possession of ballistic missiles is no longer confined to the great powers. Ballistic missiles are now widespread across the globe, with 28 countries possessing ballistic missiles, according to the British Ministry of Defence. According to the unclassified summary of a US National Intelligence Estimate on Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat Through 2015, published in January 2002, emerging ballistic missile states continue to rapidly increase the range, reliability, and accuracy of their missile systems, placing larger numbers of targets at risk. Intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capabilities are no longer likely to be restricted to major powers. CIA intelligence reports express concern over developments in missile technology primarily in three countries: Iran, Iraq and North Korea, while a number of analysts add China, Libya, and Syria to that list.

14. Both Russia and China maintain comprehensive ballistic missile forces with precision-guided, deep-strike capabilities, capable of reaching both Europe and North America. However, intelligence estimates indicate that the threat posed to the Alliance by Russia and China remains minimal given the current diplomatic climate. Russia's rapidly ageing missile arsenal is in decline, due to lack of funds. Unless Moscow significantly increases funding for its strategic and theatre forces, the Russian arsenal is expected to decline to less than 2,000 warheads by 2015, despite efforts to prolong the life of its Soviet-era missiles. China's ballistic missile forces, by contrast, are expected to increase several-fold by 2015, bringing the country's ICBM force to around 75-100 ICBMs, according to the estimates of the US National Intelligence Council (NIC). So far, however, China's ICBM force is small, counting no more than 20 missiles in its arsenal.
（看不懂英文的：中国的ICBM数量小于20个）</P>
<P>那496颗朝向台湾的M族如果是核弹头的活，是没有实战意义的，如果统一战争时用核武，在心理战层面没开打就已经输了，在世界舆论的谴责下其他方面也会跟着输得一面倒。到时连越南都可以加入反大陆保台湾的联盟军（美国为主是肯定的）。</P>
<P>3.如果中国今天有2350颗核弹头，不要说美国连俄国都会与我国断交的。</P>
<P>核弹头是冷战时期的产物且主要是美苏两大国在造，冷战结束两大国都不再造了。</P>
<P>你认为美苏能容忍我国可能大量制造吗？？？</P>
<P>4.再说中国正在为加入［弹道导弹管制条约］做准备。</P>
<P>其中一项就诚实交代核武数量，既然要诚实交代还造2350颗核弹头来干什么。</P>
<P>所以即使有能力，政治上是不允许的。</P>
<P>5。结论：原创“大国的脊梁-中国的重量级热兵器”的人有两种可能：</P>
<P>1.被强烈的爱国主义冲昏了头，学术水平低，视角窄。井底之蛙＋葡萄狐狸合成性格</P>
<P>2.文革时被整疯了，还在浮夸。</P>





[此贴子已经被作者于2004-8-3 23:14:25编辑过]