英国网民评论：为什么仍然无视中国崛起

Martin Jacques， author of a bestseller on China， asks why the west continues to approach the rise of the new global powerhouse with a closed mind. We obsess over details of the race for the White House， yet give scant regard to the battle to replace China’s current leadership. If we fail to pay heed to the political and economic shift of gravity， we will be sidelined by history

马丁.雅克，中国畅销书的作者，不解为什么西方国家还要用旧的方式来看待这个新崛起的国家。我们着迷于研究白宫的一切，对于中国现今的领先地位缺少重视。如果我们不注意政治和经济重心的转移，我们将被历史淘汰。

History is passing our country and our continent by. Once we were the centre of the world， the place from where power， ideas and the future emanated. If we drew a map of the world， Europe was at its centre. That was how it was for 200 years. No more. The world is tilting on its axis in even more dramatic style than when Europe was on the rise. We are witnessing the greatest changes the world has seen for more than two centuries. We are barely aware of the fact. And therein lies the problem

那些属于我们国家和大陆的辉煌的日子，已一去不复返。曾经，我们国家是世界的中心，是政权，创意和未来的发源地。如果我们画一张世界地图，欧洲就在中心。200年来，一直都是这样。然而，时过境迁。世界正在更戏剧化倾斜它的重心，比起欧洲崛起的那时候。我们正亲眼目睹世界的巨大变化，这是前两百多年来都不曾发生过的。我们几乎不了解真相。这就是问题所在。

I vidly recall when the first edition of my book When China Rules the World was published almost three years ago. At the many talks I gave， I showed a Goldman Sachs chart that projected that the Chinese economy would overtake the US economy in size in 2027. Invariably someone would point out this was only a projection， that the future was never an extrapolation of the past， that it was most unlikely the forecast would come to pass and certainly not in this time frame. No one suggested that the projection underestimated the date， even though the western financial crisis was already almost a year old.

我清楚的记得三年前，我的第一本书《当中国统治世界》出版时的情景。在我所作很多场演讲中，我在高盛投资公司图表预算出，在2027年，中国的经济将赶超美国。肯定会有人觉得这只是一种预测，未来不可能是过去的外推，预测很可能不会发生，肯定不会发生在这个时间段。没人会觉得预测过时，尽管西方国家的经济危机已过去一年了。

The latest Economist projection suggests China will overtake America in 2018. So why are we – and Europe – so far behind the curve？ Why do we insist on living in a world that was rather than is？ Why are we so out of touch with both the speed and import of China’s rise？

最新的《经济时报》预算指出，在2018年，中国的经济将赶超美国。那么，为什么我们国家，乃至整个欧洲，在这经济转型期落后了呢？为什么我们一直活在过去而不面对当下的世界？为什么我们无法在速度和出口方面，与正在崛起的中国接轨呢？

Our ascendancy of the past two centuries – first Europe and then the US – has bred a western-centric mentality： the west is the fount of all wisdom. We think of ourselves as open-minded but our sense of superiority has closed our minds. We never entertained the idea that China could surpass the US. Backward， lacking democracy， bereft of Enlightenment principles， the product of a very different history， it was not western. So how could it？ We were the universal model that everyone else had to embrace to succeed. The only form of modernisation that worked was westernisation. China would inevitably fail： the project was unsustainable. By insisting on seeing China through a western prism， we refused to understand China in its own terms. Our arrogance bred ignorance： we were not even curious

过去的两百年，我们一直处于支配地位，先是欧洲，接下来是美国，这种形势给人一种以西方为中心的心态，认为西方是智慧之源。我们自认为思想开明，然而正是这种优越感让我们的思维定势。我们从不认为中国会超越美国。中国落后，没有皿煮，没有启蒙原则，是不同历史的产物，跟西方不一样。那它是怎么做到崛起的呢？我们过去是想成功的国家的模范。现代化唯一成功的方式便是西方化。中国会失败，这是不可避免的。这个计划是是不可持续的。如果我们坚持用西方的棱镜来看待中国，我们将无法理解中国的模式。我们的傲慢自大会产生无知，我们甚至算不上好奇。

China is， indeed， in so many ways， not like the west. It is not even primarily a nation state but a civilisation state. Whereas the west has primarily been shaped by its experience of nation， China has been moulded by its sense of civilisation. This helps to explain why the Chinese place such a huge emphasis on unity and stability， their reverence for the state and their embrace of ideas such as “one country， two systems” in Hong Kong. Similarly， unlike Europe， China never sought to acquire overseas colonies but established a tribute system in east Asia. The Chinese state bears a fundamentally different relationship to society compared with any western state. The state is seen as an intimate， as a member of the family， rather than， as in western discourse， a problem， a threat， or even the enemy. For the Chinese， the state is the embodiment of its civilisation： as such， it could not be more important， it lies at the heart of the Chinese pysche.

的确，中国在很多方面有别于西方。中国不是一个民族国家，而是文明国家。西方国家大多形成于民族，而中国则是形成于文明。这能帮助我们理解为什么中国那么强调团结和稳定，比如他们敬畏国家，在香港实行一国两制的政策，这些都能够看出来。类似的，中国从不会像西方国家那样在海外拓展殖民地，而是在东亚建立纳贡体制。中国和社会的关系，在根本上，有别于任何西方国家。中国像是人民的至交，像是家庭成员中的一员，而不是想西方演讲中所说的那样，是一个问题，一种威胁，或者是敌人。对于中国人来说，政府是文明的体现，正因为如此，在中国人民的心中，它极其之重要。

It is impossible to understand or make sense of China through a western prism. As China becomes a great power and， over the next two decades， steadily usurps America as the dominant global power， we will no longer have any alternative but to abandon our western parochialism and seek to understand China on its own terms. But the shift in mindset that faces us is colossal.

用西方的思维模式是不可能理解和了解中国的，随着中国越来越强大，在未来二十年，中国将取代美国成为全球有影响力的国家，我们将别无选择只能放弃我们的狭隘主义，寻找理解中国的方法。我们面临的这种思维模式的转变是巨大的。

What does it mean to be a civilisation state？ What was the tributary system and how will it shape China’s future behaviour？ Why is China’s idea and experience of race so different from ours？ Just as every non-western country was compelled during the 19th and 20th centuries to understand the west in its own terms， it is now our turn to make sense of a country so different from our own.

一个文明的国家意味着什么呢？到底什么是纳贡体制，它将使中国成为什么样的国家？为什么中国人的想法和人种的经历和我们的相差甚远呢？在19世纪和20世纪，每个非西方的国家被迫用西方的方式来理解我们，如今，我们也得象当初的他们一样，要用非西方的方式去理解中国。

It will be a Herculean task： we always look west， hardly ever east. When Bo Xilai， a leading contender for one of China’s top positions， was dismissed more than a week ago， it received little attention in our media even though it was the most important event of its kind for more than two decades. Compare， if you will， the attention， devoted by the British media – notably the BBC and quality newspapers – to the Republican primaries with that given to China in the build-up to the Communist party congress in November， when President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao will be replaced by Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang. The latter is of far greater consequence yet the coverage is paltry in comparison.

这将是一个很困难的任务，我们一直关注西方，很少关注东方。一周多前，当薄熙来，中国一个高职位的竞选者，被解雇时，没有引起我们媒体的重视，尽管这是这二十年来最重大的事件了。相比较，英国的媒体，如BBC和有质量的一些报纸，则致力于报道中国十一月份gcd的大选，习近平和李克强将代替胡总和温家宝成为新一任的主席和总理。后者更加重要，相比较，覆盖面不值得一提。

We have an enormous China deficit that urgently needs addressing. It is replicated throughout our culture; there has been much talk of promoting Mandarin in our schools and yet， in both the state and private sectors， pitifully few offer it as a serious option. Our economy exhibits the same morbid symptoms： Britain exports more to Ireland than it does to China， India， Russia and Brazil combined. Unless we address these questions， we face the prospect of being sidelined by history.

我们在经济方面，有很大的中国赤字需要填补。在文化方面也是一样，迄今为止，已经说了很多次要在公立和私立学校推广普通话，可是很遗憾并没有引起重视。我们国家的经济呈现出同样的病态，英国向爱尔兰的出口量起向中国，印度，俄罗斯，巴西这四个国家的出口总量还要多。除非我们解决这些问题，不然我们将面临被历史遗弃的命运。

China’s remarkable economic growth started in 1978， but as its economy was then only a 20th the size of America’s， its global impact was minuscule. By the turn of the century， however， after more than two decades of double-digit growth， the Chinese economy was more like a quarter of the size of America’s， with the consequence that its global effect was of an entirely different order. The story， moreover， was no longer simply about China because by then its rise had begun to transform the world. Only with the financial crisis in 2008， however， did the west finally begin to wake up to the implications.

中国非凡的经济增长始于1978年，不过那时总量只有美国的二十分之一，它的全球影响极其小。然在世纪之交，经过二十年的增长，中国的经济总量已经达到美国的四分之一，它在国际的影响力也完全不一样了。中国的崛起已不仅仅是影响到中国，更在转变着整个世界。2008年的经济危机，才使得西方国家被唤醒。

Although countless commentators speak lazily of the global financial crisis， this is a misnomer. A visit to Beijing will soon dispel the illusion. The place is brimming with energy， elan， confidence and brio. While the west is mired in austerity and stagnation， with a psychology to match， China is riding an extraordinary wave of optimism. In 2010， according to a Pew poll， 91% of Chinese felt good about their country’s economy compared with 24% in the US and 20% in Britain. While most western economies are still smaller than they were before 2008， the Chinese economy has been growing in the region of 9-10% a year. That is why it will overtake the US almost a decade earlier than previously predicted.

即使有无数的评论者在回答全球经济危机时，表现出懒洋洋的状态，这是用词不当。只要去趟北京，答案马上见分晓。北京充满生机活力，自信满满。然而西方国家则是到处弥漫着萧条甚至停滞不前的状态，从心理学的态度来看，中国呈现出非同寻常的乐观。2010年，根据民意测验，91%的中国人看好中国的经济，而相比较，只有24%的美国人和20%的英国人对本国的经济抱有信心。当大多数的西方国家经济增长小于2008年时，中国的经济却以每年9-10%的增长速度在增长，这就是为什么中国会比预测的提早十年赶超美国的原因。

2008 ushered in a new era， the beginning of a Chinese world economic order. Until recently the US largely shaped globalisation but now China is increasingly assuming that role. Its most dramatic expression is trade. China will shortly become the world’s largest trading nation. It imports huge amounts of natural resources and exports a massive volume of manufactured goods： in 2011， it overtook the US to become the world’s largest producer of manufactured goods， a position America had previously held for 110 years. In 1990， there was hardly a country in the world for which China was its chief trading partner. By 2000， there were a few， but nearly all were in east Asia. By 2010 the list stretched around the world， including Japan， South Africa， Australia， Chile， Brazil， India， Pakistan， the US and Egypt. Imagine how long the list will be in 2020.

2008年引来了一个新的时代，中国经济的新纪元。直到最近美国才开始形成经济全球化，然而中国正在不断更好地扮演这个角色。它最成功的部分便是贸易。中国将慢慢变成世界上最大的贸易国。它进口大量的自然资源并出口大量的制造业产品。2011年，中国就取代美国成为世界最大的成品制造国，这个地位美国拥有了110年了。1990年，世界上几乎没有一个国家把中国列为最主要的贸易伙伴。到2000年，只有少数国家和中国贸易，而且大多数都集中在东亚。到2010年，中国已经和世界很多国家有贸易往来了，比如日本，南非，澳大利亚，智利，巴西，印度，巴基斯坦，美国还有埃及，想想看，到2020年，中国将和多少国家贸易啊，贸易的国家名单得有多长啊。

China is rapidly emerging as a great financial power. In 2009 and 2010 the China Development Bank and the China Exim Bank – which I would guess the great majority of Observer readers have never even heard of – lent more to the developing world than the World Bank. Just as the Rothschilds funded much of Europe’s industrialisation in the 19th century， so these two banks are now doing the same on a far larger canvas， namely the entire developing world， comprising 85% of the world’s population. Meanwhile， in late 2008， China began making the renminbi， hitherto a currency that circulated only in China， available for the settlement of trade. The HSBC has predicted that by 2013-15 half of China’s trade with the developing world (which constitutes more than half of China’s total trade) will be paid for in renminbi. It is the first stage in the process by which the renminbi will replace the dollar as the world’s dominant currency.

中国正在快速成为经济强国，2009年到2010年，中国开发银行和中国进出口银行借给发展中国家的钱比世界银行的还要多，这两个银行我相信大多数《观察者》的读者都没听说过吧。就像十九世纪的罗思柴尔德银行，积存了欧洲大多数的工业化成果一样，这两个银行现在做着类似的事情，控制着整个发展中国家，占世界人口的85%。2008年底，中国开始大量制造人民币，这个本只在中国流通的货币，现也在国际市场贸易结算中出现了。汇分银行预测到，到2013年或是2015年，中国和大多数发展中国家的贸易将使用人民币（这个数占到中国贸易总数的一半）。这是人民币取代美元成为世界主要货币走出的第一步。

The centre of gravity of the global economy is remorselessly shifting from the developed to the developing world. China is the main player and the outcome will be the rapidly declining influence of the developed world and the reconstitution of all major global institutions， notably the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank， to reflect this.

全球经济的重心正在残酷的从发展国家转移到发展中国家。中国是最主要的扮演者，这结果将使发展国家快速失去在世界的影响力，尤其是国际货币基金和世界银行，能反映出这种趋势。

Pause for a moment and think what it feels like to be in Beijing these days. The place is on fire. It is alive with argument and debate. A country growing at 10% a year is constantly throwing up huge and novel problems that require response and solution. It is a far cry from Britain mired in stagnation， where debate rarely ever breaks new ground and for the most part is backdated. In contrast， China is not only remaking itself with extraordinary speed， but is also remaking the world. Beijing resembles London in 1850 or Washington in 1950， but on an epic scale. It is the most interesting and stimulating city in the world.

沉思片刻，想想北京这些天会是怎样的呢。这个地方正处在热闹中，到处是辩论和争论。一个国家正以10%的增长速度增长，不断出现大的，异常的问题需要回应和解决。

网民评论：

dadsarmy

25 March 2012 12：30AM

We think of ourselves as open-minded but our sense of superiority has closed our minds. We never entertained the idea that China could surpass the US.

I’ve been telling people for 2 or 3 years that the biggest world economy is China. They look at me kind of strangely. But in a way it already is (potential). It’s been quite obvious for 10 years or more it’s going to happen. I would trace the turning point to Hong Kong 1997.

引用“我们自认为思想开明，然而正是这种优越感让我们的思维定势。我们从不认为中国会超越美国。”

我一直都跟人说，说了两三年了，世界上最大的经济体是中国。那些人听我说这些话时很奇怪地看着我。但在某种程度上，它已经是了（潜能）。很明显，再过个十来年，这些都会成为现实。我认为转折点是1997年香港回归。

Robert9

25 March 2012 12：32AM

Why do we ignore them， because we are scared and， like children， feel that if we ignore them they will go away？ I think it was Napoleon who called China a sleeping tiger， which should be left undisturbed. The tiger is wide awake and quietly on the prowl！ I just pray they do not one day treat this nation as badly as we treated them in the past – opium wars？

为什么我们忽略了他们，因为我们很害怕，难道我们像孩子一样，觉得如果闭上眼睛，他们就不在眼前了？拿破仑称中国为一只沉睡的老虎，还没有被打扰到的老虎。现在老虎醒来了，在安静地踱来踱去！我只想祈祷他们将来有一天不会像我们曾对待他们那样对待我们，嗯，当年的鸦片战争。

（译注：拿破仑把中国比作一只沉睡的狮子，这位英国网民记错为老虎）

MichaelLinLA

25 March 2012 12：39AM

In the 1980s Japan was buying everything not bolted down and look what happened.

My money’s on Brazil.

在上世纪80年代，日本吃了所有东西，却无法咽下，看看后来怎么样了。

我下注巴西。

birdincedar

25 March 2012 12：53AM

In N.America we celebrate individualism， narcissism and consumerism unlike anywhere else， The China story cuts deep into all three of these characteristics so rather than address it we ignore or deny it or distract ourselves with political， media or sports entertainment. When the earth revolves around “You” in various senses of the word why pay attention to “Them”

Fast forward 25 years， when this shift has occurred we (N.Americans) will be the last to honestly acknowledge it – rather our patriotic songs will louder than ever， our commercials for get rich quick schemes， newfangled gadgets and the latest hip sitcoms will convince us everything is just fine. Eventually even this will cease to work and the new worldview will be plain to see， even here.

我们不像其它地方，在北美，我们崇尚个人主义、自我陶醉和消费主义，而中国抑制这三样，我们用政治、媒体、体育娱乐来转移我们自己的注意力，忽视和否认现实。当整个地球都用各种字眼围绕着“你”，为什么还要去关注“他们”？

再过25年，当逆转发生时，我们（北美人）将是最后一个知道的――当然，那时，我们会大声歌唱爱国歌曲，我们的快速致富的广告、新潮玩意和喜剧将会催眠我们，让我们觉得一切都还好。等到最后，这些都不管用了，所有的一切都清楚明了展现在眼前。

Joburger8

25 March 2012 12：53AM

I think mostly people find it difficult to relate to them – we all know in a common sense way， that they will one day take over as the power nation. The question for me is how will they manage their growth and will this cause global prosperity or will it mean domestic revolution for their politics？

Interesting discussion.

我认为大多数的人都觉得很难跟他们扯上关系――常识上我们都知道，他们终有一天会作为一个强大的国家接管世界。我的问题是，他们会怎么样来管理这个世界，如何让全球繁荣？还是说，他们会爆发国内革命？

有很趣的讨论话题。

CarrotsRus

25 March 2012 2：05AM

Response to barciad， 25 March 2012 12：46AM

Have never/don′t ignore China， but like barcaid have similar concerns and probably a whole heap more. I actually think that Jacques is jumping the judgement on this one – although only everso slightly – my view give another 5 years we′ll be in a better situation to gauge whether China about to overtake USA economy etc. But thanks for this article – a boring Saturday evening – so this interesting diversion.

回复barciad：

从来没有忽视中国，也不会忽视中国，但我跟barciad担心的一样，甚至我还想到更多。我其实是在想，Jacques（译注：文章作者）轻轻地跳过了对这个的判断。我的意见是再等5年看看，那时来看中国能否超越美国经济等等。感谢这篇文章，在这个无聊的周六晚上，这是一个很有趣的消遣。

jivemi

25 March 2012 2：07AM

Arrogance？ Perhaps frivolity is a better word…

傲慢？也许用“轻率”这个词会比较好…

Freego

25 March 2012 2：07AM

This article reads like an advert.

Life is not so simple.

There will be many deviations from this prediction.

The USA in particular is doing everything it can to trip China up and keep it subject to US needs.

But then yes the US is the bad guy and China will rise. The first because of a shocking piratical hubris and the second because of a cultural predilection for self criticism as pointed out in the article. We need to recognise both of these things to minimise the damage the USA and its lap dog England are presently wreaking under cover of the Western media blackout and bias.

At one level the solution is simple. Westerners need to become intimate with the Chinese. For this the Westerner has to change. The Chinese have already. They have long chosen what they want from the West but they are not Western. Relatively speaking the West has to become Chinese. The signs are up all over the place.

Just one for example： War is not peace.

这篇文章读起来感觉像广告。

生活不是这么简单的。

预言跟生活会有很多的差异。

美国正使出浑身解数要把中国拌倒，让中国屈服。

但是，对，美国是一个坏人，中国会崛起。首先，是因为令人震惊的狂妄自在，然后，是因为缺乏自我批评的文化，文中也有提到。我们需要承认这两点，把损失减少到最小。美国和美国的哈巴狗英国正使用西方媒体管制和偏见来发泄呢。

解决办法很简单。西方人需要跟中国人交朋友。西方人得有所改变。中国人已经改变了。他们经过了长时间的选择，明白他们想要从西方获取什么东西，但他们不是西化。相对而言，西方得中国化。这种迹象到处都是。

仅以此为例：战争是不会平静的。

dadsarmy

25 March 2012 2：08AM

For manufacturing companies， the target market of a lot of companies for export is still probably the US. The problem is that they are an age old consumer market， and have their own consumer goods. China， used to their exports as being cheap imports for the west， has been increasingly a consumer import target for years， but the UK has been appallingly bad at realising this.

For a dozen years I got sick everytime I heard leading politicians of all flavours saying “services”， “services”， services”. What should have been done – in the boom years – was build up our infrastrucutre – fibre broadband and telephony door to door throughout the UK， roads and rail. And power – more nuclear， years ago. Manufacturing needs power， something China is very short of. We also have cheap skilled labour – otherwise employed or un-employed.

And a “China development agency” actively seeking out businesses in the UK for targetted exports to China. Grants， cheap loans， marketing and logistics expertise. No business too small – the truth is even my piddly little family business could have been exporting to China and got huge – we have the products. We were just too busy surviving， like many other family businesses cum potential world-beaters.

But it’s all “services” and banks and the financial industry. Look where that’s got us.

对于制造业公司来说，许多公司的出口方向可能依然是美国，问题是，美国是一个老的消费市场，而他们也有自己的产品，中国，在过去，他们向西方出口廉价的产品，在这些年来，大大地提升了西方的进口量，但英国完全没有意识到这个问题。

在这十年，每次我听到领导们说什么“服务、服务、服务”，我都觉得很恶心。在年景好的时候，应该做的是，建设我们的基础设施、光纤宽带和全国的户户通电话、公路和铁路。而诸如拥有更多核武这些，那是以前的事。制造业需要能源，有些中国非常短缺的。我们也有廉价的熟练工，要么工作，要么失业。

“中国发展机构”在英国积极地寻找出口到中国的东西：补助、低息贷款、市场、物流技术。生意无所谓大小――事实上，即使是我家的作坊做的东西都可以出口到中国，然后把生意做大，我们有产品。我们只是为了生存，就像很多家族生意都有可能成为世界级的。

这些，都是“服务”，银行和金融行业，看看他们把我们带到哪去了。

barciad

25 March 2012 2：15AM

Response to CarrotsRus， 25 March 2012 2：05AM

Just for the record， I for one find it incredibly hard to ignore China and its malignant effects. Nor for that matter can anyone else who happens to live in South Korea. It must take some hard hearted realpolitik to consider it worthwhile making best friends with the DPRK.

回复CarrotsRus：

我声明，我个人觉得很难忽视中国，还有他们的叵测居心。还有那些住在韩国的人，必须要好好想想，考虑一下跟朝鲜做好朋友了。

farfrom

25 March 2012 2：15AM

Why do we ignore China’s rise？

I suspect fear.

为什么我们忽视中国的崛起？

我猜是因为害怕。

BlueMazda

25 March 2012 2：17AM

Response to MichaelLinLA， 25 March 2012 12：39AM

They’re still buying everything that’s not bolted down especially since domestic growth is non-existant and the yen is near all time highs. China on the other hand has about 8-10 times the population of Japan.

回复MichaelLinLA：

他们还是在买那些他们吞不下去的东西，因为他们国内的增长根本不存在，人民币持续升值。中国人口是日本的8－10倍。

MichaelLinLA

25 March 2012 2：21AM

Response to BlueMazda， 25 March 2012 2：17AM

And the one-child policy will ultimately create a nation of old people – just like Japan. So your point is …

回复BlueMazda：

独生子女政策最终会引起社会的老龄化，就跟日本一样。你想说的是…

hongkongobserver

25 March 2012 2：25AM

I believe that Napoleon suggested that when China Wakes the World Will Tremble. Almost every Chinese child will learn about the Opium wars but I suspect that few British young people are aware of the opium wars and about Britain’s and other European countries’ dealings with China or even India for that matter， in spite of the fact that for hundreds of years Britain was involved with India and China.

The progress and changes in China over the recent past have been little short of amazing. The Chinese gains in manufacturing， finance， construction and education have been amazing. There are many things that go wrong on the way – high speed trains that crash and shoddy construction but China will learn. British and Western leaders appear to know nothing about history and involve themselves in stupid and counter-productive wars in places like Afghanistan， involving huge cost. Britain too seems have to have given up on manufacturing and selling all its manufacturing companies to concentrate only on banking and then the bankers bring ruin on Britain.

Britain and the West should learn of its history with China， India and other parts of the East. Britain has done many good things in China and the East. It should teach in its history of good things that have been done in places like China such as its bringing of Western medicine to China， of its fighting side by side with China in the war， of the training of Sun Yat Sen at school and university in Hong Kong. In that way British businessmen could engage in productive discussion with Chinese businessmen or professionals while discussing business.

The West should learn Chinese languages and deal with China on the basis of friendship and understanding， but at the same time awareness of the wrongs that China has done in Tibet and elsewhere. Maybe Britain and the West can learn a lot from China and the Chinese. In terms of religion， Britain and the West could perhaps learn a great deal from the East. British people in the past like

ir Edwin Arnold promoted knowledge of Buddhism and Hinduism in the West a hundred years ago， yet America sends its armies to Afghanistan where its soldiers burn copies of the Koran and in Iraq American forces disgraced their country and Western civilization at Abu Ghraib in Iraq.

我相信拿破仑说的，当中国醒来时，世界都会为之颤抖。几乎每一个中国孩子都会学习鸦片战争，但我猜，几乎没有英国年轻人知道鸦片战争，也不知道英国和其它欧洲国家跟中国、印度干的那些事，虽然英国有几百年都跟印度和中国有牵扯。

中国在近年的进步和改变让人有些惊讶。中国人在制造业、金融业、建筑业和教育业上都取得了令人惊讶的成就。也有很多事出错――高铁倒塌，豆腐渣工程，但中国会吸引教训。英国和西方的领导人好像对历史一无所知，只会傻傻地卷入到没什么意义的战争中，像阿富汗，花费巨额。英国似乎要放弃和卖掉整个制造业，只集中于银行，而那些银行家却毁了英国。

英国和西方应该学习跟中国、印度和其它东方国家相关的历史。英国在中国和东方做了很多好事。历史课应该教些英国做的好事，例如把西方机器带给了中国，在战争中跟中国并肩作战，在孙中山学校和香港的大学里教导学生。用这种方式，英国的商人跟中国商人或专家谈生意时才会有比较有成效的结果。

西方应该学习中文，跟中国建立最基本的友谊和理解，但同时，要意识到，中国在西藏和其它一些地方做错的事情。也许英国和西方可以从中国和中国人身上学到不少东西。在宗教方面，英国和西方也许能向东方学习很多东西。英国人在过去，譬如阿诺德，在一百年前就在西方传播了佛教和印度教。美国派军到阿富汗，却在那里梵烧他们的古兰经，在伊朗，美国军队在阿布格莱布让美国和西方国家丢尽了脸面。

HopeFading

25 March 2012 2：27AM

Response to farfrom， 25 March 2012 2：15AM

Was just typing this myself. Totally agree. The arrogance is the output; the input is fear.

回复farfrom：

只代表我自己，完全同意。输出傲慢，输入恐惧。

Martin Jacques， author of a bestseller on China， asks why the west continues to approach the rise of the new global powerhouse with a closed mind. We obsess over details of the race for the White House， yet give scant regard to the battle to replace China’s current leadership. If we fail to pay heed to the political and economic shift of gravity， we will be sidelined by history

马丁.雅克，中国畅销书的作者，不解为什么西方国家还要用旧的方式来看待这个新崛起的国家。我们着迷于研究白宫的一切，对于中国现今的领先地位缺少重视。如果我们不注意政治和经济重心的转移，我们将被历史淘汰。

History is passing our country and our continent by. Once we were the centre of the world， the place from where power， ideas and the future emanated. If we drew a map of the world， Europe was at its centre. That was how it was for 200 years. No more. The world is tilting on its axis in even more dramatic style than when Europe was on the rise. We are witnessing the greatest changes the world has seen for more than two centuries. We are barely aware of the fact. And therein lies the problem

那些属于我们国家和大陆的辉煌的日子，已一去不复返。曾经，我们国家是世界的中心，是政权，创意和未来的发源地。如果我们画一张世界地图，欧洲就在中心。200年来，一直都是这样。然而，时过境迁。世界正在更戏剧化倾斜它的重心，比起欧洲崛起的那时候。我们正亲眼目睹世界的巨大变化，这是前两百多年来都不曾发生过的。我们几乎不了解真相。这就是问题所在。

I vidly recall when the first edition of my book When China Rules the World was published almost three years ago. At the many talks I gave， I showed a Goldman Sachs chart that projected that the Chinese economy would overtake the US economy in size in 2027. Invariably someone would point out this was only a projection， that the future was never an extrapolation of the past， that it was most unlikely the forecast would come to pass and certainly not in this time frame. No one suggested that the projection underestimated the date， even though the western financial crisis was already almost a year old.

我清楚的记得三年前，我的第一本书《当中国统治世界》出版时的情景。在我所作很多场演讲中，我在高盛投资公司图表预算出，在2027年，中国的经济将赶超美国。肯定会有人觉得这只是一种预测，未来不可能是过去的外推，预测很可能不会发生，肯定不会发生在这个时间段。没人会觉得预测过时，尽管西方国家的经济危机已过去一年了。

The latest Economist projection suggests China will overtake America in 2018. So why are we – and Europe – so far behind the curve？ Why do we insist on living in a world that was rather than is？ Why are we so out of touch with both the speed and import of China’s rise？

最新的《经济时报》预算指出，在2018年，中国的经济将赶超美国。那么，为什么我们国家，乃至整个欧洲，在这经济转型期落后了呢？为什么我们一直活在过去而不面对当下的世界？为什么我们无法在速度和出口方面，与正在崛起的中国接轨呢？

Our ascendancy of the past two centuries – first Europe and then the US – has bred a western-centric mentality： the west is the fount of all wisdom. We think of ourselves as open-minded but our sense of superiority has closed our minds. We never entertained the idea that China could surpass the US. Backward， lacking democracy， bereft of Enlightenment principles， the product of a very different history， it was not western. So how could it？ We were the universal model that everyone else had to embrace to succeed. The only form of modernisation that worked was westernisation. China would inevitably fail： the project was unsustainable. By insisting on seeing China through a western prism， we refused to understand China in its own terms. Our arrogance bred ignorance： we were not even curious

过去的两百年，我们一直处于支配地位，先是欧洲，接下来是美国，这种形势给人一种以西方为中心的心态，认为西方是智慧之源。我们自认为思想开明，然而正是这种优越感让我们的思维定势。我们从不认为中国会超越美国。中国落后，没有皿煮，没有启蒙原则，是不同历史的产物，跟西方不一样。那它是怎么做到崛起的呢？我们过去是想成功的国家的模范。现代化唯一成功的方式便是西方化。中国会失败，这是不可避免的。这个计划是是不可持续的。如果我们坚持用西方的棱镜来看待中国，我们将无法理解中国的模式。我们的傲慢自大会产生无知，我们甚至算不上好奇。

China is， indeed， in so many ways， not like the west. It is not even primarily a nation state but a civilisation state. Whereas the west has primarily been shaped by its experience of nation， China has been moulded by its sense of civilisation. This helps to explain why the Chinese place such a huge emphasis on unity and stability， their reverence for the state and their embrace of ideas such as “one country， two systems” in Hong Kong. Similarly， unlike Europe， China never sought to acquire overseas colonies but established a tribute system in east Asia. The Chinese state bears a fundamentally different relationship to society compared with any western state. The state is seen as an intimate， as a member of the family， rather than， as in western discourse， a problem， a threat， or even the enemy. For the Chinese， the state is the embodiment of its civilisation： as such， it could not be more important， it lies at the heart of the Chinese pysche.

的确，中国在很多方面有别于西方。中国不是一个民族国家，而是文明国家。西方国家大多形成于民族，而中国则是形成于文明。这能帮助我们理解为什么中国那么强调团结和稳定，比如他们敬畏国家，在香港实行一国两制的政策，这些都能够看出来。类似的，中国从不会像西方国家那样在海外拓展殖民地，而是在东亚建立纳贡体制。中国和社会的关系，在根本上，有别于任何西方国家。中国像是人民的至交，像是家庭成员中的一员，而不是想西方演讲中所说的那样，是一个问题，一种威胁，或者是敌人。对于中国人来说，政府是文明的体现，正因为如此，在中国人民的心中，它极其之重要。

It is impossible to understand or make sense of China through a western prism. As China becomes a great power and， over the next two decades， steadily usurps America as the dominant global power， we will no longer have any alternative but to abandon our western parochialism and seek to understand China on its own terms. But the shift in mindset that faces us is colossal.

用西方的思维模式是不可能理解和了解中国的，随着中国越来越强大，在未来二十年，中国将取代美国成为全球有影响力的国家，我们将别无选择只能放弃我们的狭隘主义，寻找理解中国的方法。我们面临的这种思维模式的转变是巨大的。

What does it mean to be a civilisation state？ What was the tributary system and how will it shape China’s future behaviour？ Why is China’s idea and experience of race so different from ours？ Just as every non-western country was compelled during the 19th and 20th centuries to understand the west in its own terms， it is now our turn to make sense of a country so different from our own.

一个文明的国家意味着什么呢？到底什么是纳贡体制，它将使中国成为什么样的国家？为什么中国人的想法和人种的经历和我们的相差甚远呢？在19世纪和20世纪，每个非西方的国家被迫用西方的方式来理解我们，如今，我们也得象当初的他们一样，要用非西方的方式去理解中国。

It will be a Herculean task： we always look west， hardly ever east. When Bo Xilai， a leading contender for one of China’s top positions， was dismissed more than a week ago， it received little attention in our media even though it was the most important event of its kind for more than two decades. Compare， if you will， the attention， devoted by the British media – notably the BBC and quality newspapers – to the Republican primaries with that given to China in the build-up to the Communist party congress in November， when President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao will be replaced by Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang. The latter is of far greater consequence yet the coverage is paltry in comparison.

这将是一个很困难的任务，我们一直关注西方，很少关注东方。一周多前，当薄熙来，中国一个高职位的竞选者，被解雇时，没有引起我们媒体的重视，尽管这是这二十年来最重大的事件了。相比较，英国的媒体，如BBC和有质量的一些报纸，则致力于报道中国十一月份gcd的大选，习近平和李克强将代替胡总和温家宝成为新一任的主席和总理。后者更加重要，相比较，覆盖面不值得一提。

We have an enormous China deficit that urgently needs addressing. It is replicated throughout our culture; there has been much talk of promoting Mandarin in our schools and yet， in both the state and private sectors， pitifully few offer it as a serious option. Our economy exhibits the same morbid symptoms： Britain exports more to Ireland than it does to China， India， Russia and Brazil combined. Unless we address these questions， we face the prospect of being sidelined by history.

我们在经济方面，有很大的中国赤字需要填补。在文化方面也是一样，迄今为止，已经说了很多次要在公立和私立学校推广普通话，可是很遗憾并没有引起重视。我们国家的经济呈现出同样的病态，英国向爱尔兰的出口量起向中国，印度，俄罗斯，巴西这四个国家的出口总量还要多。除非我们解决这些问题，不然我们将面临被历史遗弃的命运。

China’s remarkable economic growth started in 1978， but as its economy was then only a 20th the size of America’s， its global impact was minuscule. By the turn of the century， however， after more than two decades of double-digit growth， the Chinese economy was more like a quarter of the size of America’s， with the consequence that its global effect was of an entirely different order. The story， moreover， was no longer simply about China because by then its rise had begun to transform the world. Only with the financial crisis in 2008， however， did the west finally begin to wake up to the implications.

中国非凡的经济增长始于1978年，不过那时总量只有美国的二十分之一，它的全球影响极其小。然在世纪之交，经过二十年的增长，中国的经济总量已经达到美国的四分之一，它在国际的影响力也完全不一样了。中国的崛起已不仅仅是影响到中国，更在转变着整个世界。2008年的经济危机，才使得西方国家被唤醒。

Although countless commentators speak lazily of the global financial crisis， this is a misnomer. A visit to Beijing will soon dispel the illusion. The place is brimming with energy， elan， confidence and brio. While the west is mired in austerity and stagnation， with a psychology to match， China is riding an extraordinary wave of optimism. In 2010， according to a Pew poll， 91% of Chinese felt good about their country’s economy compared with 24% in the US and 20% in Britain. While most western economies are still smaller than they were before 2008， the Chinese economy has been growing in the region of 9-10% a year. That is why it will overtake the US almost a decade earlier than previously predicted.

即使有无数的评论者在回答全球经济危机时，表现出懒洋洋的状态，这是用词不当。只要去趟北京，答案马上见分晓。北京充满生机活力，自信满满。然而西方国家则是到处弥漫着萧条甚至停滞不前的状态，从心理学的态度来看，中国呈现出非同寻常的乐观。2010年，根据民意测验，91%的中国人看好中国的经济，而相比较，只有24%的美国人和20%的英国人对本国的经济抱有信心。当大多数的西方国家经济增长小于2008年时，中国的经济却以每年9-10%的增长速度在增长，这就是为什么中国会比预测的提早十年赶超美国的原因。

2008 ushered in a new era， the beginning of a Chinese world economic order. Until recently the US largely shaped globalisation but now China is increasingly assuming that role. Its most dramatic expression is trade. China will shortly become the world’s largest trading nation. It imports huge amounts of natural resources and exports a massive volume of manufactured goods： in 2011， it overtook the US to become the world’s largest producer of manufactured goods， a position America had previously held for 110 years. In 1990， there was hardly a country in the world for which China was its chief trading partner. By 2000， there were a few， but nearly all were in east Asia. By 2010 the list stretched around the world， including Japan， South Africa， Australia， Chile， Brazil， India， Pakistan， the US and Egypt. Imagine how long the list will be in 2020.

2008年引来了一个新的时代，中国经济的新纪元。直到最近美国才开始形成经济全球化，然而中国正在不断更好地扮演这个角色。它最成功的部分便是贸易。中国将慢慢变成世界上最大的贸易国。它进口大量的自然资源并出口大量的制造业产品。2011年，中国就取代美国成为世界最大的成品制造国，这个地位美国拥有了110年了。1990年，世界上几乎没有一个国家把中国列为最主要的贸易伙伴。到2000年，只有少数国家和中国贸易，而且大多数都集中在东亚。到2010年，中国已经和世界很多国家有贸易往来了，比如日本，南非，澳大利亚，智利，巴西，印度，巴基斯坦，美国还有埃及，想想看，到2020年，中国将和多少国家贸易啊，贸易的国家名单得有多长啊。

China is rapidly emerging as a great financial power. In 2009 and 2010 the China Development Bank and the China Exim Bank – which I would guess the great majority of Observer readers have never even heard of – lent more to the developing world than the World Bank. Just as the Rothschilds funded much of Europe’s industrialisation in the 19th century， so these two banks are now doing the same on a far larger canvas， namely the entire developing world， comprising 85% of the world’s population. Meanwhile， in late 2008， China began making the renminbi， hitherto a currency that circulated only in China， available for the settlement of trade. The HSBC has predicted that by 2013-15 half of China’s trade with the developing world (which constitutes more than half of China’s total trade) will be paid for in renminbi. It is the first stage in the process by which the renminbi will replace the dollar as the world’s dominant currency.

中国正在快速成为经济强国，2009年到2010年，中国开发银行和中国进出口银行借给发展中国家的钱比世界银行的还要多，这两个银行我相信大多数《观察者》的读者都没听说过吧。就像十九世纪的罗思柴尔德银行，积存了欧洲大多数的工业化成果一样，这两个银行现在做着类似的事情，控制着整个发展中国家，占世界人口的85%。2008年底，中国开始大量制造人民币，这个本只在中国流通的货币，现也在国际市场贸易结算中出现了。汇分银行预测到，到2013年或是2015年，中国和大多数发展中国家的贸易将使用人民币（这个数占到中国贸易总数的一半）。这是人民币取代美元成为世界主要货币走出的第一步。

The centre of gravity of the global economy is remorselessly shifting from the developed to the developing world. China is the main player and the outcome will be the rapidly declining influence of the developed world and the reconstitution of all major global institutions， notably the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank， to reflect this.

全球经济的重心正在残酷的从发展国家转移到发展中国家。中国是最主要的扮演者，这结果将使发展国家快速失去在世界的影响力，尤其是国际货币基金和世界银行，能反映出这种趋势。

Pause for a moment and think what it feels like to be in Beijing these days. The place is on fire. It is alive with argument and debate. A country growing at 10% a year is constantly throwing up huge and novel problems that require response and solution. It is a far cry from Britain mired in stagnation， where debate rarely ever breaks new ground and for the most part is backdated. In contrast， China is not only remaking itself with extraordinary speed， but is also remaking the world. Beijing resembles London in 1850 or Washington in 1950， but on an epic scale. It is the most interesting and stimulating city in the world.

沉思片刻，想想北京这些天会是怎样的呢。这个地方正处在热闹中，到处是辩论和争论。一个国家正以10%的增长速度增长，不断出现大的，异常的问题需要回应和解决。

网民评论：

dadsarmy

25 March 2012 12：30AM

We think of ourselves as open-minded but our sense of superiority has closed our minds. We never entertained the idea that China could surpass the US.

I’ve been telling people for 2 or 3 years that the biggest world economy is China. They look at me kind of strangely. But in a way it already is (potential). It’s been quite obvious for 10 years or more it’s going to happen. I would trace the turning point to Hong Kong 1997.

引用“我们自认为思想开明，然而正是这种优越感让我们的思维定势。我们从不认为中国会超越美国。”

我一直都跟人说，说了两三年了，世界上最大的经济体是中国。那些人听我说这些话时很奇怪地看着我。但在某种程度上，它已经是了（潜能）。很明显，再过个十来年，这些都会成为现实。我认为转折点是1997年香港回归。

Robert9

25 March 2012 12：32AM

Why do we ignore them， because we are scared and， like children， feel that if we ignore them they will go away？ I think it was Napoleon who called China a sleeping tiger， which should be left undisturbed. The tiger is wide awake and quietly on the prowl！ I just pray they do not one day treat this nation as badly as we treated them in the past – opium wars？

为什么我们忽略了他们，因为我们很害怕，难道我们像孩子一样，觉得如果闭上眼睛，他们就不在眼前了？拿破仑称中国为一只沉睡的老虎，还没有被打扰到的老虎。现在老虎醒来了，在安静地踱来踱去！我只想祈祷他们将来有一天不会像我们曾对待他们那样对待我们，嗯，当年的鸦片战争。

（译注：拿破仑把中国比作一只沉睡的狮子，这位英国网民记错为老虎）

MichaelLinLA

25 March 2012 12：39AM

In the 1980s Japan was buying everything not bolted down and look what happened.

My money’s on Brazil.

在上世纪80年代，日本吃了所有东西，却无法咽下，看看后来怎么样了。

我下注巴西。

birdincedar

25 March 2012 12：53AM

In N.America we celebrate individualism， narcissism and consumerism unlike anywhere else， The China story cuts deep into all three of these characteristics so rather than address it we ignore or deny it or distract ourselves with political， media or sports entertainment. When the earth revolves around “You” in various senses of the word why pay attention to “Them”

Fast forward 25 years， when this shift has occurred we (N.Americans) will be the last to honestly acknowledge it – rather our patriotic songs will louder than ever， our commercials for get rich quick schemes， newfangled gadgets and the latest hip sitcoms will convince us everything is just fine. Eventually even this will cease to work and the new worldview will be plain to see， even here.

我们不像其它地方，在北美，我们崇尚个人主义、自我陶醉和消费主义，而中国抑制这三样，我们用政治、媒体、体育娱乐来转移我们自己的注意力，忽视和否认现实。当整个地球都用各种字眼围绕着“你”，为什么还要去关注“他们”？

再过25年，当逆转发生时，我们（北美人）将是最后一个知道的――当然，那时，我们会大声歌唱爱国歌曲，我们的快速致富的广告、新潮玩意和喜剧将会催眠我们，让我们觉得一切都还好。等到最后，这些都不管用了，所有的一切都清楚明了展现在眼前。

Joburger8

25 March 2012 12：53AM

I think mostly people find it difficult to relate to them – we all know in a common sense way， that they will one day take over as the power nation. The question for me is how will they manage their growth and will this cause global prosperity or will it mean domestic revolution for their politics？

Interesting discussion.

我认为大多数的人都觉得很难跟他们扯上关系――常识上我们都知道，他们终有一天会作为一个强大的国家接管世界。我的问题是，他们会怎么样来管理这个世界，如何让全球繁荣？还是说，他们会爆发国内革命？

有很趣的讨论话题。

CarrotsRus

25 March 2012 2：05AM

Response to barciad， 25 March 2012 12：46AM

Have never/don′t ignore China， but like barcaid have similar concerns and probably a whole heap more. I actually think that Jacques is jumping the judgement on this one – although only everso slightly – my view give another 5 years we′ll be in a better situation to gauge whether China about to overtake USA economy etc. But thanks for this article – a boring Saturday evening – so this interesting diversion.

回复barciad：

从来没有忽视中国，也不会忽视中国，但我跟barciad担心的一样，甚至我还想到更多。我其实是在想，Jacques（译注：文章作者）轻轻地跳过了对这个的判断。我的意见是再等5年看看，那时来看中国能否超越美国经济等等。感谢这篇文章，在这个无聊的周六晚上，这是一个很有趣的消遣。

jivemi

25 March 2012 2：07AM

Arrogance？ Perhaps frivolity is a better word…

傲慢？也许用“轻率”这个词会比较好…

Freego

25 March 2012 2：07AM

This article reads like an advert.

Life is not so simple.

There will be many deviations from this prediction.

The USA in particular is doing everything it can to trip China up and keep it subject to US needs.

But then yes the US is the bad guy and China will rise. The first because of a shocking piratical hubris and the second because of a cultural predilection for self criticism as pointed out in the article. We need to recognise both of these things to minimise the damage the USA and its lap dog England are presently wreaking under cover of the Western media blackout and bias.

At one level the solution is simple. Westerners need to become intimate with the Chinese. For this the Westerner has to change. The Chinese have already. They have long chosen what they want from the West but they are not Western. Relatively speaking the West has to become Chinese. The signs are up all over the place.

Just one for example： War is not peace.

这篇文章读起来感觉像广告。

生活不是这么简单的。

预言跟生活会有很多的差异。

美国正使出浑身解数要把中国拌倒，让中国屈服。

但是，对，美国是一个坏人，中国会崛起。首先，是因为令人震惊的狂妄自在，然后，是因为缺乏自我批评的文化，文中也有提到。我们需要承认这两点，把损失减少到最小。美国和美国的哈巴狗英国正使用西方媒体管制和偏见来发泄呢。

解决办法很简单。西方人需要跟中国人交朋友。西方人得有所改变。中国人已经改变了。他们经过了长时间的选择，明白他们想要从西方获取什么东西，但他们不是西化。相对而言，西方得中国化。这种迹象到处都是。

仅以此为例：战争是不会平静的。

dadsarmy

25 March 2012 2：08AM

For manufacturing companies， the target market of a lot of companies for export is still probably the US. The problem is that they are an age old consumer market， and have their own consumer goods. China， used to their exports as being cheap imports for the west， has been increasingly a consumer import target for years， but the UK has been appallingly bad at realising this.

For a dozen years I got sick everytime I heard leading politicians of all flavours saying “services”， “services”， services”. What should have been done – in the boom years – was build up our infrastrucutre – fibre broadband and telephony door to door throughout the UK， roads and rail. And power – more nuclear， years ago. Manufacturing needs power， something China is very short of. We also have cheap skilled labour – otherwise employed or un-employed.

And a “China development agency” actively seeking out businesses in the UK for targetted exports to China. Grants， cheap loans， marketing and logistics expertise. No business too small – the truth is even my piddly little family business could have been exporting to China and got huge – we have the products. We were just too busy surviving， like many other family businesses cum potential world-beaters.

But it’s all “services” and banks and the financial industry. Look where that’s got us.

对于制造业公司来说，许多公司的出口方向可能依然是美国，问题是，美国是一个老的消费市场，而他们也有自己的产品，中国，在过去，他们向西方出口廉价的产品，在这些年来，大大地提升了西方的进口量，但英国完全没有意识到这个问题。

在这十年，每次我听到领导们说什么“服务、服务、服务”，我都觉得很恶心。在年景好的时候，应该做的是，建设我们的基础设施、光纤宽带和全国的户户通电话、公路和铁路。而诸如拥有更多核武这些，那是以前的事。制造业需要能源，有些中国非常短缺的。我们也有廉价的熟练工，要么工作，要么失业。

“中国发展机构”在英国积极地寻找出口到中国的东西：补助、低息贷款、市场、物流技术。生意无所谓大小――事实上，即使是我家的作坊做的东西都可以出口到中国，然后把生意做大，我们有产品。我们只是为了生存，就像很多家族生意都有可能成为世界级的。

这些，都是“服务”，银行和金融行业，看看他们把我们带到哪去了。

barciad

25 March 2012 2：15AM

Response to CarrotsRus， 25 March 2012 2：05AM

Just for the record， I for one find it incredibly hard to ignore China and its malignant effects. Nor for that matter can anyone else who happens to live in South Korea. It must take some hard hearted realpolitik to consider it worthwhile making best friends with the DPRK.

回复CarrotsRus：

我声明，我个人觉得很难忽视中国，还有他们的叵测居心。还有那些住在韩国的人，必须要好好想想，考虑一下跟朝鲜做好朋友了。

farfrom

25 March 2012 2：15AM

Why do we ignore China’s rise？

I suspect fear.

为什么我们忽视中国的崛起？

我猜是因为害怕。

BlueMazda

25 March 2012 2：17AM

Response to MichaelLinLA， 25 March 2012 12：39AM

They’re still buying everything that’s not bolted down especially since domestic growth is non-existant and the yen is near all time highs. China on the other hand has about 8-10 times the population of Japan.

回复MichaelLinLA：

他们还是在买那些他们吞不下去的东西，因为他们国内的增长根本不存在，人民币持续升值。中国人口是日本的8－10倍。

MichaelLinLA

25 March 2012 2：21AM

Response to BlueMazda， 25 March 2012 2：17AM

And the one-child policy will ultimately create a nation of old people – just like Japan. So your point is …

回复BlueMazda：

独生子女政策最终会引起社会的老龄化，就跟日本一样。你想说的是…

hongkongobserver

25 March 2012 2：25AM

I believe that Napoleon suggested that when China Wakes the World Will Tremble. Almost every Chinese child will learn about the Opium wars but I suspect that few British young people are aware of the opium wars and about Britain’s and other European countries’ dealings with China or even India for that matter， in spite of the fact that for hundreds of years Britain was involved with India and China.

The progress and changes in China over the recent past have been little short of amazing. The Chinese gains in manufacturing， finance， construction and education have been amazing. There are many things that go wrong on the way – high speed trains that crash and shoddy construction but China will learn. British and Western leaders appear to know nothing about history and involve themselves in stupid and counter-productive wars in places like Afghanistan， involving huge cost. Britain too seems have to have given up on manufacturing and selling all its manufacturing companies to concentrate only on banking and then the bankers bring ruin on Britain.

Britain and the West should learn of its history with China， India and other parts of the East. Britain has done many good things in China and the East. It should teach in its history of good things that have been done in places like China such as its bringing of Western medicine to China， of its fighting side by side with China in the war， of the training of Sun Yat Sen at school and university in Hong Kong. In that way British businessmen could engage in productive discussion with Chinese businessmen or professionals while discussing business.

The West should learn Chinese languages and deal with China on the basis of friendship and understanding， but at the same time awareness of the wrongs that China has done in Tibet and elsewhere. Maybe Britain and the West can learn a lot from China and the Chinese. In terms of religion， Britain and the West could perhaps learn a great deal from the East. British people in the past like

ir Edwin Arnold promoted knowledge of Buddhism and Hinduism in the West a hundred years ago， yet America sends its armies to Afghanistan where its soldiers burn copies of the Koran and in Iraq American forces disgraced their country and Western civilization at Abu Ghraib in Iraq.

我相信拿破仑说的，当中国醒来时，世界都会为之颤抖。几乎每一个中国孩子都会学习鸦片战争，但我猜，几乎没有英国年轻人知道鸦片战争，也不知道英国和其它欧洲国家跟中国、印度干的那些事，虽然英国有几百年都跟印度和中国有牵扯。

中国在近年的进步和改变让人有些惊讶。中国人在制造业、金融业、建筑业和教育业上都取得了令人惊讶的成就。也有很多事出错――高铁倒塌，豆腐渣工程，但中国会吸引教训。英国和西方的领导人好像对历史一无所知，只会傻傻地卷入到没什么意义的战争中，像阿富汗，花费巨额。英国似乎要放弃和卖掉整个制造业，只集中于银行，而那些银行家却毁了英国。

英国和西方应该学习跟中国、印度和其它东方国家相关的历史。英国在中国和东方做了很多好事。历史课应该教些英国做的好事，例如把西方机器带给了中国，在战争中跟中国并肩作战，在孙中山学校和香港的大学里教导学生。用这种方式，英国的商人跟中国商人或专家谈生意时才会有比较有成效的结果。

西方应该学习中文，跟中国建立最基本的友谊和理解，但同时，要意识到，中国在西藏和其它一些地方做错的事情。也许英国和西方可以从中国和中国人身上学到不少东西。在宗教方面，英国和西方也许能向东方学习很多东西。英国人在过去，譬如阿诺德，在一百年前就在西方传播了佛教和印度教。美国派军到阿富汗，却在那里梵烧他们的古兰经，在伊朗，美国军队在阿布格莱布让美国和西方国家丢尽了脸面。

HopeFading

25 March 2012 2：27AM

Response to farfrom， 25 March 2012 2：15AM

Was just typing this myself. Totally agree. The arrogance is the output; the input is fear.

回复farfrom：

只代表我自己，完全同意。输出傲慢，输入恐惧。