超级军网《外交学者》文章原创翻译，展望中国2020年军力
来源：百度文库 编辑：超级军网 时间：2024/04/29 05:59:26
本来是跟前天一样看到CD有人转发《外交学者》上的文章，下午看完之后手痒痒，就顺手翻了一下，吃完晚饭后发上来供大家参考参考，CD原帖在http://lt.cjdby.net/thread-1782751-1-1.html
《外交学者》原文链接http://thediplomat.com/2014/01/imagining-chinas-military-in-2020/
Imagining China’s Military in 2020
展望2020年中国军力
Recent testimony forecasts what the People’s Liberation Army could look like in 2020.
近期举行的国会听证会对2020年中国军力的可能形势作了预测。
By Harry Kazianis
January 31, 2014
For anyone who cares to delve into the deep body of literature on China’s budding military modernization program, one thing becomes clear very quickly — it is heavy on opinion and short on facts. In many respects this is to be expected. For those who are old enough to recall debates regarding the Soviet Union’s military prowess throughout the Cold War, obviously viewpoints varied dramatically. Yet, there were always a few voices that should have been listened to then and the same is true of today’s debates concerning the rise of the PLA.
有一些人希望深入钻研论述中国蓬勃发展的军事现代化计划的相关著作，对于他们来说，有一个问题变得很突出——这些文章的观点虽然层出不穷，百花齐放，但是相应的事实依据却很匮乏。不过这种情况从很多方面看来也在意料之中。因为在老一辈的读者的记忆中，整个冷战期间关于苏联军事实力的讨论就存在明显的分歧，各界的观点也是莫衷一是。尽管如此，这其中还是有几种声音值得人们所关注，就当前关于解放军军力崛起的讨论而言，道理也依然如此。
Case in point. One scholar who certainly does not get enough credit but deserves your attention is Atlantic Council non-resident Senior Fellow Roger Cliff. He may not have his own blog or you might not see his writings all over the China defense blogosphere (oops), but when he writes you need to listen. Cliff, along with a whole host of scholars at the Rand Corporation, authored the first comprehensive study of China’s A2/AD strategy and, in this author’s view, deserves the lion’s share of the credit for bringing this important issue to the public’s attention. While overtaken by current events to a large extent, Entering the Dragon’s Lair is always a work I turn back to again and again when I consider China’s A2/AD strategy, even seven years after it was published. Flashpoints readers: if you don’t own it, you should.
举个相关的例子。大西洋理事会高级访问学者罗杰.克里夫就是这么一位值得大家关注的学者，尽管他的学术成就在以前并未受到外界太多赞誉。虽然他没有开通自己的博客，你也不大可能看到他的著作充斥中国军力分析博客圈的这一景象(哎，有些可惜啊），但是他一旦有力作问世，大家就应该认真拜读。因为克里夫与兰德公司大批学者通力合作撰写了第一部研究中国反拒止与反介入（A2/AD）战略的综合性著作（即后面讲到的《深入龙潭》），而且以本作者的观点来看，这一重大问题之所以能得到大众的广泛关注，他居功至伟，功不可没。虽然《深入龙潭》早于7年前就已出版，而且时局的发展也大大出乎我原来的预测，但是每当我思考中国A2/AD战略时，我总是拿起这本书，看了一遍又一遍。
《热点》栏目的读者们（这是《外交学者》的一个专栏）：如果你们还没拜读过它的话，应该入手一本。
So when Cliff testified in front of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission recently, it was certainly on my radar. Having interviewed Cliff when I was an Assistant Editor here at The Diplomat, I knew quality analysis would be forthcoming. While much of his prepared testimony focused on how China’s growing military capabilities might be employed against U.S. forces during a clash over Taiwan (something that does not get enough attention), there were three other juicy tidbits worth extra attention.
所以当克利夫在中美经济与安全评估委员会近期举行的听证会上作证时，这一事件自然引起了我的注意。当我还在《外交学者》担任助理编辑一职时，我曾经采访过他，因此我预感到他在听证会上做出的分析必然入木三分。虽然他准备的证词将重点放在了中国如何在台海冲突（这一问题并未得到足够重视）时利用不断增长的军力来对抗美军这一方面，他讲得另外三则趣闻却很有意思，值得我们格外关注。
First, Cliff explains correctly that a great deal of attention has been paid to Beijing’s ASBM efforts, yet, China has a whole host of options to harass American carriers in the Asia-Pacific. Even if such efforts do not deliver a mission kill against a carrier, they could “be so consumed with defending themselves that they would not be able to use significant numbers of their aircraft for defending Taiwan.” He notes that “carriers operating within about a thousand miles of China’s coast, for example, would also be subject to attack by land-based Chinese Su-30 and J-11B fighters, JH-7 supersonic fighter bombers, and H-6 bombers, all of which can be armed with anti-ship cruise missiles.” It seems that while American carriers are certainly prepared to defend themselves, the sheer amount of challenges they would face could prove fatal. Like I have said before, math might just be missile defense’s worst enemy.
第一条，克利夫如实地指出，尽管外界高度重视北京在发展反舰弹道导弹（ASBM)方面做出的努力，中国实际上还拥有大量的其它手段来对美军部署在亚太地区的多艘航母进行袭扰。即便这些投入还不能做到对航母一击毙命，但是也足以使美军忙于自保而无暇派出大量战机保卫台湾。比如他提到 “在离中国海岸1000英里范围内执行作战任务的航空母舰将受到中国Su-30,J-11B路基战斗机，JH-7B战斗轰炸机以及H-6轰炸机的联合打击，而且上述机型都能携带反舰巡航导弹。” 这似乎出现了这么一种情况虽然美军航母必然会准备充分以保护自身的安全，但是光他们面临的大量挑战就可能构成致命威胁。这就跟我以前说过的观点一样，庞大的（导弹）数量是导弹防御最可怕的劲敌（原文用的是math，应该是指导弹的数量）。
Second, Cliff makes some interesting predictions when it comes to China’s armed forces in the years to come. He explains that “by my estimates, in 2020 the weaponry of China’s military forces will be roughly comparable to that of the U.S. military in 2000.” Clearly, experts could interpret this many different ways. “One way to look at that is to say that even in 2020 China’s military will still be 20 years behind the U.S. military. Another way to look at it, however, is to ask how much more advanced the U.S. military will be in 2020 as compared to 2000,” Cliff notes in his testimony.
第二条就是克里夫对未来几年内中国武装力量的发展做了一些有趣的预测。他称“据我估计，2020年中国军力的发展大约相当于美军2000年的水准。”当然，防务专家们可以到这句话做出不同的解读。“有一种解释就是，即使到2020年中国军队依然比美军落后20年。而另一种理解则是来探讨这一问题——2020年时的美国军队的战斗力与2000时期相比究竟提高了多少？”克利夫在作证时如是表示。
Finally, Cliff comments that China’s training should be a concern for U.S. military planners trying to make predictions and comparisons about Beijing’s ability to wage combat operations with a true level of sophistication. Let’s face it: you can have all the high-tech weapons in the world but if you have no clue how to use them — well, you get the idea. Many defense experts I have spoken with over the years have wildly different opinions when it comes to China’s military training proficiencies. Still, one thing is clear — they are getting gaining proficiency quickly. As Cliff notes, “by 2020 the average Chinese soldier will be better educated than his or her American counterpart.”
最后一点，克利夫认为美国军事决策者在预测与比较北京发起技术含量较高的高科技军事行动的能力时应考虑到中国军队的训练水平这一因素。说实话：哪怕你拥有世界上所有的高科技武器，但是如果你不懂怎么去运用它们的话——结果大家可想而知。近些年来我采访过的防务专家在谈及中国军队的训练水平时，看法难以统一，存有严重的分歧。不过一样事情是清楚明了的——中国军队的娴熟程度正迅速提高。正如克利夫所说“到2020年时，普通中国军人将比美军士兵更加训练有素。”
So what to make of all this? First off, read the whole testimony. Second, over the last few weeks China defense watchers have been treated to a whole host of news stories that point to a clear trend: an evolving and ever-capable Chinese military. From stories of new Chinese carriers, to hypersonic weapons tests, to deployments farther and farther away from the coast, to better training, it is clear China’s military is becoming much more capable. When combined with tensions in the East and South China Sea, declarations of an ADIZ, and a whole host of controversial statements coming from Beijing on a constant basis, a patterns seems to be emerging — one in which China’s power is growing and could slowly but surely seek to unwind the status quo. Some would argue it already is.
那么该怎么来理解这些信息呢？首先，大家应该读完克利夫所做的全部证词。其次，过去的几周内中国防务专家所注意到的一些列新闻报道清楚地指明一种趋势：中国军队正日益精进，实力也越来越强。从中国建造多艘新型航空，进行高超音速武器试验，以及向离本国海岸愈来愈远的地区部署军力，在到解放军训练能力提升等报道来看，中国军队实力明显是蒸蒸日上。如果将东海以及南中国海地区的紧张局势与北京宣布建立防空识别以及不断发表一系列争议性言论等动作综合起来分析，我们会发现一种态势正逐渐变得清晰起来——在这种态势之下中国军力不断发展，其前进的步伐可能较为缓慢，但必然寻求打破当前的现状。有些人甚至认为中国已经做到了这一点。
Although my thoughts on what Washington should do about this will have to wait for a future post, one thing is clear — the U.S. must keep a close eye on the rise of China’s military in the years to come.
尽管我要在以后的帖子里才发表自己对华盛顿的相应策略的看法，但是有一点是肯定的——美国必须在未来几年内密切关注中国军力的崛起。
本来是跟前天一样看到CD有人转发《外交学者》上的文章，下午看完之后手痒痒，就顺手翻了一下，吃完晚饭后发上来供大家参考参考，CD原帖在http://lt.cjdby.net/thread-1782751-1-1.html
《外交学者》原文链接http://thediplomat.com/2014/01/imagining-chinas-military-in-2020/
Imagining China’s Military in 2020
展望2020年中国军力
Recent testimony forecasts what the People’s Liberation Army could look like in 2020.
近期举行的国会听证会对2020年中国军力的可能形势作了预测。
By Harry Kazianis
January 31, 2014
For anyone who cares to delve into the deep body of literature on China’s budding military modernization program, one thing becomes clear very quickly — it is heavy on opinion and short on facts. In many respects this is to be expected. For those who are old enough to recall debates regarding the Soviet Union’s military prowess throughout the Cold War, obviously viewpoints varied dramatically. Yet, there were always a few voices that should have been listened to then and the same is true of today’s debates concerning the rise of the PLA.
有一些人希望深入钻研论述中国蓬勃发展的军事现代化计划的相关著作，对于他们来说，有一个问题变得很突出——这些文章的观点虽然层出不穷，百花齐放，但是相应的事实依据却很匮乏。不过这种情况从很多方面看来也在意料之中。因为在老一辈的读者的记忆中，整个冷战期间关于苏联军事实力的讨论就存在明显的分歧，各界的观点也是莫衷一是。尽管如此，这其中还是有几种声音值得人们所关注，就当前关于解放军军力崛起的讨论而言，道理也依然如此。
Case in point. One scholar who certainly does not get enough credit but deserves your attention is Atlantic Council non-resident Senior Fellow Roger Cliff. He may not have his own blog or you might not see his writings all over the China defense blogosphere (oops), but when he writes you need to listen. Cliff, along with a whole host of scholars at the Rand Corporation, authored the first comprehensive study of China’s A2/AD strategy and, in this author’s view, deserves the lion’s share of the credit for bringing this important issue to the public’s attention. While overtaken by current events to a large extent, Entering the Dragon’s Lair is always a work I turn back to again and again when I consider China’s A2/AD strategy, even seven years after it was published. Flashpoints readers: if you don’t own it, you should.
举个相关的例子。大西洋理事会高级访问学者罗杰.克里夫就是这么一位值得大家关注的学者，尽管他的学术成就在以前并未受到外界太多赞誉。虽然他没有开通自己的博客，你也不大可能看到他的著作充斥中国军力分析博客圈的这一景象(哎，有些可惜啊），但是他一旦有力作问世，大家就应该认真拜读。因为克里夫与兰德公司大批学者通力合作撰写了第一部研究中国反拒止与反介入（A2/AD）战略的综合性著作（即后面讲到的《深入龙潭》），而且以本作者的观点来看，这一重大问题之所以能得到大众的广泛关注，他居功至伟，功不可没。虽然《深入龙潭》早于7年前就已出版，而且时局的发展也大大出乎我原来的预测，但是每当我思考中国A2/AD战略时，我总是拿起这本书，看了一遍又一遍。
《热点》栏目的读者们（这是《外交学者》的一个专栏）：如果你们还没拜读过它的话，应该入手一本。
So when Cliff testified in front of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission recently, it was certainly on my radar. Having interviewed Cliff when I was an Assistant Editor here at The Diplomat, I knew quality analysis would be forthcoming. While much of his prepared testimony focused on how China’s growing military capabilities might be employed against U.S. forces during a clash over Taiwan (something that does not get enough attention), there were three other juicy tidbits worth extra attention.
所以当克利夫在中美经济与安全评估委员会近期举行的听证会上作证时，这一事件自然引起了我的注意。当我还在《外交学者》担任助理编辑一职时，我曾经采访过他，因此我预感到他在听证会上做出的分析必然入木三分。虽然他准备的证词将重点放在了中国如何在台海冲突（这一问题并未得到足够重视）时利用不断增长的军力来对抗美军这一方面，他讲得另外三则趣闻却很有意思，值得我们格外关注。
First, Cliff explains correctly that a great deal of attention has been paid to Beijing’s ASBM efforts, yet, China has a whole host of options to harass American carriers in the Asia-Pacific. Even if such efforts do not deliver a mission kill against a carrier, they could “be so consumed with defending themselves that they would not be able to use significant numbers of their aircraft for defending Taiwan.” He notes that “carriers operating within about a thousand miles of China’s coast, for example, would also be subject to attack by land-based Chinese Su-30 and J-11B fighters, JH-7 supersonic fighter bombers, and H-6 bombers, all of which can be armed with anti-ship cruise missiles.” It seems that while American carriers are certainly prepared to defend themselves, the sheer amount of challenges they would face could prove fatal. Like I have said before, math might just be missile defense’s worst enemy.
第一条，克利夫如实地指出，尽管外界高度重视北京在发展反舰弹道导弹（ASBM)方面做出的努力，中国实际上还拥有大量的其它手段来对美军部署在亚太地区的多艘航母进行袭扰。即便这些投入还不能做到对航母一击毙命，但是也足以使美军忙于自保而无暇派出大量战机保卫台湾。比如他提到 “在离中国海岸1000英里范围内执行作战任务的航空母舰将受到中国Su-30,J-11B路基战斗机，JH-7B战斗轰炸机以及H-6轰炸机的联合打击，而且上述机型都能携带反舰巡航导弹。” 这似乎出现了这么一种情况虽然美军航母必然会准备充分以保护自身的安全，但是光他们面临的大量挑战就可能构成致命威胁。这就跟我以前说过的观点一样，庞大的（导弹）数量是导弹防御最可怕的劲敌（原文用的是math，应该是指导弹的数量）。
Second, Cliff makes some interesting predictions when it comes to China’s armed forces in the years to come. He explains that “by my estimates, in 2020 the weaponry of China’s military forces will be roughly comparable to that of the U.S. military in 2000.” Clearly, experts could interpret this many different ways. “One way to look at that is to say that even in 2020 China’s military will still be 20 years behind the U.S. military. Another way to look at it, however, is to ask how much more advanced the U.S. military will be in 2020 as compared to 2000,” Cliff notes in his testimony.
第二条就是克里夫对未来几年内中国武装力量的发展做了一些有趣的预测。他称“据我估计，2020年中国军力的发展大约相当于美军2000年的水准。”当然，防务专家们可以到这句话做出不同的解读。“有一种解释就是，即使到2020年中国军队依然比美军落后20年。而另一种理解则是来探讨这一问题——2020年时的美国军队的战斗力与2000时期相比究竟提高了多少？”克利夫在作证时如是表示。
Finally, Cliff comments that China’s training should be a concern for U.S. military planners trying to make predictions and comparisons about Beijing’s ability to wage combat operations with a true level of sophistication. Let’s face it: you can have all the high-tech weapons in the world but if you have no clue how to use them — well, you get the idea. Many defense experts I have spoken with over the years have wildly different opinions when it comes to China’s military training proficiencies. Still, one thing is clear — they are getting gaining proficiency quickly. As Cliff notes, “by 2020 the average Chinese soldier will be better educated than his or her American counterpart.”
最后一点，克利夫认为美国军事决策者在预测与比较北京发起技术含量较高的高科技军事行动的能力时应考虑到中国军队的训练水平这一因素。说实话：哪怕你拥有世界上所有的高科技武器，但是如果你不懂怎么去运用它们的话——结果大家可想而知。近些年来我采访过的防务专家在谈及中国军队的训练水平时，看法难以统一，存有严重的分歧。不过一样事情是清楚明了的——中国军队的娴熟程度正迅速提高。正如克利夫所说“到2020年时，普通中国军人将比美军士兵更加训练有素。”
So what to make of all this? First off, read the whole testimony. Second, over the last few weeks China defense watchers have been treated to a whole host of news stories that point to a clear trend: an evolving and ever-capable Chinese military. From stories of new Chinese carriers, to hypersonic weapons tests, to deployments farther and farther away from the coast, to better training, it is clear China’s military is becoming much more capable. When combined with tensions in the East and South China Sea, declarations of an ADIZ, and a whole host of controversial statements coming from Beijing on a constant basis, a patterns seems to be emerging — one in which China’s power is growing and could slowly but surely seek to unwind the status quo. Some would argue it already is.
那么该怎么来理解这些信息呢？首先，大家应该读完克利夫所做的全部证词。其次，过去的几周内中国防务专家所注意到的一些列新闻报道清楚地指明一种趋势：中国军队正日益精进，实力也越来越强。从中国建造多艘新型航空，进行高超音速武器试验，以及向离本国海岸愈来愈远的地区部署军力，在到解放军训练能力提升等报道来看，中国军队实力明显是蒸蒸日上。如果将东海以及南中国海地区的紧张局势与北京宣布建立防空识别以及不断发表一系列争议性言论等动作综合起来分析，我们会发现一种态势正逐渐变得清晰起来——在这种态势之下中国军力不断发展，其前进的步伐可能较为缓慢，但必然寻求打破当前的现状。有些人甚至认为中国已经做到了这一点。
Although my thoughts on what Washington should do about this will have to wait for a future post, one thing is clear — the U.S. must keep a close eye on the rise of China’s military in the years to come.
尽管我要在以后的帖子里才发表自己对华盛顿的相应策略的看法，但是有一点是肯定的——美国必须在未来几年内密切关注中国军力的崛起。
《外交学者》原文链接http://thediplomat.com/2014/01/imagining-chinas-military-in-2020/
Imagining China’s Military in 2020
展望2020年中国军力
Recent testimony forecasts what the People’s Liberation Army could look like in 2020.
近期举行的国会听证会对2020年中国军力的可能形势作了预测。
By Harry Kazianis
January 31, 2014
For anyone who cares to delve into the deep body of literature on China’s budding military modernization program, one thing becomes clear very quickly — it is heavy on opinion and short on facts. In many respects this is to be expected. For those who are old enough to recall debates regarding the Soviet Union’s military prowess throughout the Cold War, obviously viewpoints varied dramatically. Yet, there were always a few voices that should have been listened to then and the same is true of today’s debates concerning the rise of the PLA.
有一些人希望深入钻研论述中国蓬勃发展的军事现代化计划的相关著作，对于他们来说，有一个问题变得很突出——这些文章的观点虽然层出不穷，百花齐放，但是相应的事实依据却很匮乏。不过这种情况从很多方面看来也在意料之中。因为在老一辈的读者的记忆中，整个冷战期间关于苏联军事实力的讨论就存在明显的分歧，各界的观点也是莫衷一是。尽管如此，这其中还是有几种声音值得人们所关注，就当前关于解放军军力崛起的讨论而言，道理也依然如此。
Case in point. One scholar who certainly does not get enough credit but deserves your attention is Atlantic Council non-resident Senior Fellow Roger Cliff. He may not have his own blog or you might not see his writings all over the China defense blogosphere (oops), but when he writes you need to listen. Cliff, along with a whole host of scholars at the Rand Corporation, authored the first comprehensive study of China’s A2/AD strategy and, in this author’s view, deserves the lion’s share of the credit for bringing this important issue to the public’s attention. While overtaken by current events to a large extent, Entering the Dragon’s Lair is always a work I turn back to again and again when I consider China’s A2/AD strategy, even seven years after it was published. Flashpoints readers: if you don’t own it, you should.
举个相关的例子。大西洋理事会高级访问学者罗杰.克里夫就是这么一位值得大家关注的学者，尽管他的学术成就在以前并未受到外界太多赞誉。虽然他没有开通自己的博客，你也不大可能看到他的著作充斥中国军力分析博客圈的这一景象(哎，有些可惜啊），但是他一旦有力作问世，大家就应该认真拜读。因为克里夫与兰德公司大批学者通力合作撰写了第一部研究中国反拒止与反介入（A2/AD）战略的综合性著作（即后面讲到的《深入龙潭》），而且以本作者的观点来看，这一重大问题之所以能得到大众的广泛关注，他居功至伟，功不可没。虽然《深入龙潭》早于7年前就已出版，而且时局的发展也大大出乎我原来的预测，但是每当我思考中国A2/AD战略时，我总是拿起这本书，看了一遍又一遍。
《热点》栏目的读者们（这是《外交学者》的一个专栏）：如果你们还没拜读过它的话，应该入手一本。
So when Cliff testified in front of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission recently, it was certainly on my radar. Having interviewed Cliff when I was an Assistant Editor here at The Diplomat, I knew quality analysis would be forthcoming. While much of his prepared testimony focused on how China’s growing military capabilities might be employed against U.S. forces during a clash over Taiwan (something that does not get enough attention), there were three other juicy tidbits worth extra attention.
所以当克利夫在中美经济与安全评估委员会近期举行的听证会上作证时，这一事件自然引起了我的注意。当我还在《外交学者》担任助理编辑一职时，我曾经采访过他，因此我预感到他在听证会上做出的分析必然入木三分。虽然他准备的证词将重点放在了中国如何在台海冲突（这一问题并未得到足够重视）时利用不断增长的军力来对抗美军这一方面，他讲得另外三则趣闻却很有意思，值得我们格外关注。
First, Cliff explains correctly that a great deal of attention has been paid to Beijing’s ASBM efforts, yet, China has a whole host of options to harass American carriers in the Asia-Pacific. Even if such efforts do not deliver a mission kill against a carrier, they could “be so consumed with defending themselves that they would not be able to use significant numbers of their aircraft for defending Taiwan.” He notes that “carriers operating within about a thousand miles of China’s coast, for example, would also be subject to attack by land-based Chinese Su-30 and J-11B fighters, JH-7 supersonic fighter bombers, and H-6 bombers, all of which can be armed with anti-ship cruise missiles.” It seems that while American carriers are certainly prepared to defend themselves, the sheer amount of challenges they would face could prove fatal. Like I have said before, math might just be missile defense’s worst enemy.
第一条，克利夫如实地指出，尽管外界高度重视北京在发展反舰弹道导弹（ASBM)方面做出的努力，中国实际上还拥有大量的其它手段来对美军部署在亚太地区的多艘航母进行袭扰。即便这些投入还不能做到对航母一击毙命，但是也足以使美军忙于自保而无暇派出大量战机保卫台湾。比如他提到 “在离中国海岸1000英里范围内执行作战任务的航空母舰将受到中国Su-30,J-11B路基战斗机，JH-7B战斗轰炸机以及H-6轰炸机的联合打击，而且上述机型都能携带反舰巡航导弹。” 这似乎出现了这么一种情况虽然美军航母必然会准备充分以保护自身的安全，但是光他们面临的大量挑战就可能构成致命威胁。这就跟我以前说过的观点一样，庞大的（导弹）数量是导弹防御最可怕的劲敌（原文用的是math，应该是指导弹的数量）。
Second, Cliff makes some interesting predictions when it comes to China’s armed forces in the years to come. He explains that “by my estimates, in 2020 the weaponry of China’s military forces will be roughly comparable to that of the U.S. military in 2000.” Clearly, experts could interpret this many different ways. “One way to look at that is to say that even in 2020 China’s military will still be 20 years behind the U.S. military. Another way to look at it, however, is to ask how much more advanced the U.S. military will be in 2020 as compared to 2000,” Cliff notes in his testimony.
第二条就是克里夫对未来几年内中国武装力量的发展做了一些有趣的预测。他称“据我估计，2020年中国军力的发展大约相当于美军2000年的水准。”当然，防务专家们可以到这句话做出不同的解读。“有一种解释就是，即使到2020年中国军队依然比美军落后20年。而另一种理解则是来探讨这一问题——2020年时的美国军队的战斗力与2000时期相比究竟提高了多少？”克利夫在作证时如是表示。
Finally, Cliff comments that China’s training should be a concern for U.S. military planners trying to make predictions and comparisons about Beijing’s ability to wage combat operations with a true level of sophistication. Let’s face it: you can have all the high-tech weapons in the world but if you have no clue how to use them — well, you get the idea. Many defense experts I have spoken with over the years have wildly different opinions when it comes to China’s military training proficiencies. Still, one thing is clear — they are getting gaining proficiency quickly. As Cliff notes, “by 2020 the average Chinese soldier will be better educated than his or her American counterpart.”
最后一点，克利夫认为美国军事决策者在预测与比较北京发起技术含量较高的高科技军事行动的能力时应考虑到中国军队的训练水平这一因素。说实话：哪怕你拥有世界上所有的高科技武器，但是如果你不懂怎么去运用它们的话——结果大家可想而知。近些年来我采访过的防务专家在谈及中国军队的训练水平时，看法难以统一，存有严重的分歧。不过一样事情是清楚明了的——中国军队的娴熟程度正迅速提高。正如克利夫所说“到2020年时，普通中国军人将比美军士兵更加训练有素。”
So what to make of all this? First off, read the whole testimony. Second, over the last few weeks China defense watchers have been treated to a whole host of news stories that point to a clear trend: an evolving and ever-capable Chinese military. From stories of new Chinese carriers, to hypersonic weapons tests, to deployments farther and farther away from the coast, to better training, it is clear China’s military is becoming much more capable. When combined with tensions in the East and South China Sea, declarations of an ADIZ, and a whole host of controversial statements coming from Beijing on a constant basis, a patterns seems to be emerging — one in which China’s power is growing and could slowly but surely seek to unwind the status quo. Some would argue it already is.
那么该怎么来理解这些信息呢？首先，大家应该读完克利夫所做的全部证词。其次，过去的几周内中国防务专家所注意到的一些列新闻报道清楚地指明一种趋势：中国军队正日益精进，实力也越来越强。从中国建造多艘新型航空，进行高超音速武器试验，以及向离本国海岸愈来愈远的地区部署军力，在到解放军训练能力提升等报道来看，中国军队实力明显是蒸蒸日上。如果将东海以及南中国海地区的紧张局势与北京宣布建立防空识别以及不断发表一系列争议性言论等动作综合起来分析，我们会发现一种态势正逐渐变得清晰起来——在这种态势之下中国军力不断发展，其前进的步伐可能较为缓慢，但必然寻求打破当前的现状。有些人甚至认为中国已经做到了这一点。
Although my thoughts on what Washington should do about this will have to wait for a future post, one thing is clear — the U.S. must keep a close eye on the rise of China’s military in the years to come.
尽管我要在以后的帖子里才发表自己对华盛顿的相应策略的看法，但是有一点是肯定的——美国必须在未来几年内密切关注中国军力的崛起。
本来是跟前天一样看到CD有人转发《外交学者》上的文章，下午看完之后手痒痒，就顺手翻了一下，吃完晚饭后发上来供大家参考参考，CD原帖在http://lt.cjdby.net/thread-1782751-1-1.html
《外交学者》原文链接http://thediplomat.com/2014/01/imagining-chinas-military-in-2020/
Imagining China’s Military in 2020
展望2020年中国军力
Recent testimony forecasts what the People’s Liberation Army could look like in 2020.
近期举行的国会听证会对2020年中国军力的可能形势作了预测。
By Harry Kazianis
January 31, 2014
For anyone who cares to delve into the deep body of literature on China’s budding military modernization program, one thing becomes clear very quickly — it is heavy on opinion and short on facts. In many respects this is to be expected. For those who are old enough to recall debates regarding the Soviet Union’s military prowess throughout the Cold War, obviously viewpoints varied dramatically. Yet, there were always a few voices that should have been listened to then and the same is true of today’s debates concerning the rise of the PLA.
有一些人希望深入钻研论述中国蓬勃发展的军事现代化计划的相关著作，对于他们来说，有一个问题变得很突出——这些文章的观点虽然层出不穷，百花齐放，但是相应的事实依据却很匮乏。不过这种情况从很多方面看来也在意料之中。因为在老一辈的读者的记忆中，整个冷战期间关于苏联军事实力的讨论就存在明显的分歧，各界的观点也是莫衷一是。尽管如此，这其中还是有几种声音值得人们所关注，就当前关于解放军军力崛起的讨论而言，道理也依然如此。
Case in point. One scholar who certainly does not get enough credit but deserves your attention is Atlantic Council non-resident Senior Fellow Roger Cliff. He may not have his own blog or you might not see his writings all over the China defense blogosphere (oops), but when he writes you need to listen. Cliff, along with a whole host of scholars at the Rand Corporation, authored the first comprehensive study of China’s A2/AD strategy and, in this author’s view, deserves the lion’s share of the credit for bringing this important issue to the public’s attention. While overtaken by current events to a large extent, Entering the Dragon’s Lair is always a work I turn back to again and again when I consider China’s A2/AD strategy, even seven years after it was published. Flashpoints readers: if you don’t own it, you should.
举个相关的例子。大西洋理事会高级访问学者罗杰.克里夫就是这么一位值得大家关注的学者，尽管他的学术成就在以前并未受到外界太多赞誉。虽然他没有开通自己的博客，你也不大可能看到他的著作充斥中国军力分析博客圈的这一景象(哎，有些可惜啊），但是他一旦有力作问世，大家就应该认真拜读。因为克里夫与兰德公司大批学者通力合作撰写了第一部研究中国反拒止与反介入（A2/AD）战略的综合性著作（即后面讲到的《深入龙潭》），而且以本作者的观点来看，这一重大问题之所以能得到大众的广泛关注，他居功至伟，功不可没。虽然《深入龙潭》早于7年前就已出版，而且时局的发展也大大出乎我原来的预测，但是每当我思考中国A2/AD战略时，我总是拿起这本书，看了一遍又一遍。
《热点》栏目的读者们（这是《外交学者》的一个专栏）：如果你们还没拜读过它的话，应该入手一本。
So when Cliff testified in front of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission recently, it was certainly on my radar. Having interviewed Cliff when I was an Assistant Editor here at The Diplomat, I knew quality analysis would be forthcoming. While much of his prepared testimony focused on how China’s growing military capabilities might be employed against U.S. forces during a clash over Taiwan (something that does not get enough attention), there were three other juicy tidbits worth extra attention.
所以当克利夫在中美经济与安全评估委员会近期举行的听证会上作证时，这一事件自然引起了我的注意。当我还在《外交学者》担任助理编辑一职时，我曾经采访过他，因此我预感到他在听证会上做出的分析必然入木三分。虽然他准备的证词将重点放在了中国如何在台海冲突（这一问题并未得到足够重视）时利用不断增长的军力来对抗美军这一方面，他讲得另外三则趣闻却很有意思，值得我们格外关注。
First, Cliff explains correctly that a great deal of attention has been paid to Beijing’s ASBM efforts, yet, China has a whole host of options to harass American carriers in the Asia-Pacific. Even if such efforts do not deliver a mission kill against a carrier, they could “be so consumed with defending themselves that they would not be able to use significant numbers of their aircraft for defending Taiwan.” He notes that “carriers operating within about a thousand miles of China’s coast, for example, would also be subject to attack by land-based Chinese Su-30 and J-11B fighters, JH-7 supersonic fighter bombers, and H-6 bombers, all of which can be armed with anti-ship cruise missiles.” It seems that while American carriers are certainly prepared to defend themselves, the sheer amount of challenges they would face could prove fatal. Like I have said before, math might just be missile defense’s worst enemy.
第一条，克利夫如实地指出，尽管外界高度重视北京在发展反舰弹道导弹（ASBM)方面做出的努力，中国实际上还拥有大量的其它手段来对美军部署在亚太地区的多艘航母进行袭扰。即便这些投入还不能做到对航母一击毙命，但是也足以使美军忙于自保而无暇派出大量战机保卫台湾。比如他提到 “在离中国海岸1000英里范围内执行作战任务的航空母舰将受到中国Su-30,J-11B路基战斗机，JH-7B战斗轰炸机以及H-6轰炸机的联合打击，而且上述机型都能携带反舰巡航导弹。” 这似乎出现了这么一种情况虽然美军航母必然会准备充分以保护自身的安全，但是光他们面临的大量挑战就可能构成致命威胁。这就跟我以前说过的观点一样，庞大的（导弹）数量是导弹防御最可怕的劲敌（原文用的是math，应该是指导弹的数量）。
Second, Cliff makes some interesting predictions when it comes to China’s armed forces in the years to come. He explains that “by my estimates, in 2020 the weaponry of China’s military forces will be roughly comparable to that of the U.S. military in 2000.” Clearly, experts could interpret this many different ways. “One way to look at that is to say that even in 2020 China’s military will still be 20 years behind the U.S. military. Another way to look at it, however, is to ask how much more advanced the U.S. military will be in 2020 as compared to 2000,” Cliff notes in his testimony.
第二条就是克里夫对未来几年内中国武装力量的发展做了一些有趣的预测。他称“据我估计，2020年中国军力的发展大约相当于美军2000年的水准。”当然，防务专家们可以到这句话做出不同的解读。“有一种解释就是，即使到2020年中国军队依然比美军落后20年。而另一种理解则是来探讨这一问题——2020年时的美国军队的战斗力与2000时期相比究竟提高了多少？”克利夫在作证时如是表示。
Finally, Cliff comments that China’s training should be a concern for U.S. military planners trying to make predictions and comparisons about Beijing’s ability to wage combat operations with a true level of sophistication. Let’s face it: you can have all the high-tech weapons in the world but if you have no clue how to use them — well, you get the idea. Many defense experts I have spoken with over the years have wildly different opinions when it comes to China’s military training proficiencies. Still, one thing is clear — they are getting gaining proficiency quickly. As Cliff notes, “by 2020 the average Chinese soldier will be better educated than his or her American counterpart.”
最后一点，克利夫认为美国军事决策者在预测与比较北京发起技术含量较高的高科技军事行动的能力时应考虑到中国军队的训练水平这一因素。说实话：哪怕你拥有世界上所有的高科技武器，但是如果你不懂怎么去运用它们的话——结果大家可想而知。近些年来我采访过的防务专家在谈及中国军队的训练水平时，看法难以统一，存有严重的分歧。不过一样事情是清楚明了的——中国军队的娴熟程度正迅速提高。正如克利夫所说“到2020年时，普通中国军人将比美军士兵更加训练有素。”
So what to make of all this? First off, read the whole testimony. Second, over the last few weeks China defense watchers have been treated to a whole host of news stories that point to a clear trend: an evolving and ever-capable Chinese military. From stories of new Chinese carriers, to hypersonic weapons tests, to deployments farther and farther away from the coast, to better training, it is clear China’s military is becoming much more capable. When combined with tensions in the East and South China Sea, declarations of an ADIZ, and a whole host of controversial statements coming from Beijing on a constant basis, a patterns seems to be emerging — one in which China’s power is growing and could slowly but surely seek to unwind the status quo. Some would argue it already is.
那么该怎么来理解这些信息呢？首先，大家应该读完克利夫所做的全部证词。其次，过去的几周内中国防务专家所注意到的一些列新闻报道清楚地指明一种趋势：中国军队正日益精进，实力也越来越强。从中国建造多艘新型航空，进行高超音速武器试验，以及向离本国海岸愈来愈远的地区部署军力，在到解放军训练能力提升等报道来看，中国军队实力明显是蒸蒸日上。如果将东海以及南中国海地区的紧张局势与北京宣布建立防空识别以及不断发表一系列争议性言论等动作综合起来分析，我们会发现一种态势正逐渐变得清晰起来——在这种态势之下中国军力不断发展，其前进的步伐可能较为缓慢，但必然寻求打破当前的现状。有些人甚至认为中国已经做到了这一点。
Although my thoughts on what Washington should do about this will have to wait for a future post, one thing is clear — the U.S. must keep a close eye on the rise of China’s military in the years to come.
尽管我要在以后的帖子里才发表自己对华盛顿的相应策略的看法，但是有一点是肯定的——美国必须在未来几年内密切关注中国军力的崛起。