【外交家】为什么中国不会攻打台湾

【外交家】为什么中国不会攻打台湾
译文来源:【外交家】【链接】http://thediplomat.com/2013/12/why-china-wont-attack-taiwan/
翻译：龙腾

Why China Won't Attack Taiwan
为何中国不会攻击台湾


It is extremely unlikely that China will invade Taiwan , much less succeed.

中国不太可能入侵台湾，更不用说获得胜利了。

Although relatively muted in recent years, Taiwanis seen as the greatest potential flashpoint in U.S.-China relations. Indeed, U.S. defense analysts perceive China’s expanding Anti-Access/Area Denial(A2/AD) capabilities primarily through the lens of preventing the U.S. from intervening should Beijinginvade Taiwan.Consequently, the main concepts the U.S. military has developed for counteringA2/AD — namely, Air-Sea Battle and a blockade approach — appear to be based onthe assumption that a shooting war with China would break out over Taiwan.

虽然近年来关系相对温和，但台湾是中美关系中潜在的最大的导火索。事实上，美国国防分析人士认为，中国不断扩大的反介入/区域封锁(A2/AD)功能主要通过阻止美国干预北京入侵台湾来实现的。因此，美国军方行成的对于对抗A2/AD的主要概念——即海空作战和阻断拦截——似乎存在于中国与台湾之间会爆发战争的基础上。

* In many ways, the concern over Taiwanis well-placed. China covets the island far morethan any other piece of real estate, including the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands. ForCCP leaders and many ordinary Chinese, Taiwan is one of the vast remainingvestiges of the country’s century of humiliation. Acquiring Taiwan wouldalso significantly enhance the PLA’s ability to project power outwardly.Despite improvements in cross-Strait relations in recent years, China hasrefused to rule out the possibility of invasion.

在很多方面，对于台湾的关注都是精心布局的。中国对于台湾的觊觎，远远超过了对于其他地方的渴望，这其中也包括钓鱼岛/尖阁列岛。对于中共领导人及千千万万的中国普通老百姓来说，台湾是遗留至今的中国所遭受的世纪耻辱的证据之一。收回台湾同样也能显著提升中国人民解放军对外作战能力。尽管近年来两岸关系有所改善，但中国仍然拒绝放弃入侵台湾的可能性。

Besides having the motivation to acquire Taiwan, China seemingly is rapidlyacquiring the capability to take the island by force. In recent years, thecross-Strait military balance has rapidly shifted in Beijing’sfavor, and this trend is almost certain to continue so long as China’seconomy continues to grow. Today, Chinahas at least 1,600 ballistic missiles pointed at Taiwan,and Taiwan’s own Ministry ofDefense admits that Chinawill have sufficient military capabilities to mount a full cross-Strait attackby 2020.

除了收回台湾的动机之外，中国武力夺岛的能力似乎正在快速增长。近几年，两岸军事杠杆迅速倾向于北京一方，并且，只要中国的经济继续增长，这一趋势肯定会继续下去。今天，中国有着至少1600枚弹道导弹瞄准着台湾，台湾国防部承认，到2020年，中国将有足够的能力发动海峡战争。

This has led some U.S. analysts, particularly academics of theRealist persuasion, to argue that the U.S.should gradually cede Taiwanto the People’s Republic of China.For example, Charles Glaser argued in a controversial Foreign Affairs articlein 2011 that, given the risks of nuclear war between China and the UnitedStates, “the United States should consider backing away from its commitment toTaiwan. This would remove the most obvious and contentious flash point betweenthe United States and China and smooth the way for better relations betweenthem in the decades to come.”

这一切使得一些美国的分析家们，特别是现实主义的学者们倾向于说服美国逐步向中华人民共和国放弃台湾。例如，2011年CharlesGlaser在一篇具有争议的外交事务文章中说道，考虑到中美之间发生核战争的风险，“美国应该考虑放弃对台湾的承诺。此举将能消除中美之间最明显且最易于引发冲突的因素，并能为两国在将来几十年中的友好关系铺平道路。”

Similarly, in a recent talk in Taiwan, John Mearsheimer argued that short ofacquiring an independent nuclear deterrent, Taiwan’sbest option is to pursue the “Hong Kong strategy” toward Beijing. Under the Hong Kong strategy, “Taiwan accepts the fact it is doomed to lose itsindependence and become part of China.It then works hard to make sure that the transition is peaceful and that itgains as much autonomy as possible from Beijing.”

同样的，JohnMearsheimer在最近一次在台湾的谈话中认为，由于缺乏独立的核威慑力量，台湾的最佳策略就是向北京要求“香港策略”。在香港策略下，“台湾要接受它最终将丧失独立性且变成中国的一部分的事实。然后努力确保过渡过程的平和，如此它才能从北京手里获得更可能多的自主权。”

Although the trend lines are undoubtedlyworking in China’s favor, itis ultimately extremely unlikely that Chinawill try to seize Taiwanby force. Furthermore, should it try to do this, it is unlikely to succeed.

尽管趋势无疑是对中国有利，但中国最终微乎其微试图通过武力夺取台湾。此外，如果它试图这么做，它也不可能获得成功。

Even assuming China’smilitary capabilities are great enough to prevent the U.S. from intervening, there are two forces thatwould likely be sufficient to deter Chinafrom invading Taiwan.The first and least important is the dramatic impact this would have on howcountries in the region and around the world would view such a move. Globally, China seizing Taiwan would result in it beingpermanently viewed as a malicious nation. Regionally, China’s invasion of Taiwanwould diminish any lingering debate over how Beijing will use its growing power. Everyregional power would see its own fate in Taiwan. Although Beijingwould try to reassure countries by claiming that Taiwanwas part of China already, andthus the operation was a domestic stability one, this narrative would beconvincing to none of China’sneighbors. Consequently, Beijingwould face an environment in which each state was dedicated to cooperating withothers to balance against Chinese power.

即使假设中国的军事能力大得足以阻止美国对此进行干预，可能会存在两股力量足以阻止中国入侵台湾。首先，也是最无足轻重的就是，此举在该地区和世界各地眼中，将产生怎样引人注目的影响。从全球范围来说，中国武力夺取台湾的举动必将导致她永久地背上邪恶国家的名号。区域范围里，中国入侵台湾的举动，一定会将有关中国将如何运用其日益增加的军事能力的争议一扫而清。该区域内的每个国家，在台湾身上都能看到自己未来的命运。尽管北京会试图以台湾是中国固有领土，此举只为安抚国内稳定，这一理由来说服这些国家，但这一说辞是不会让她任何一个邻国信服的。因此，中国必将面临一个所有邻国彼此抱团以抗衡中国力量的局面。

But the more important deterrent for Chinawould be the uncertainty of success. To be sure, China’smilitary capabilities are growing to the point where it will soon be assured ofits ability to quickly defeat Taiwan’smilitary forces.

但更重要的是，中国无法确保胜利。可以肯定的是，中国军力的不断增长很快能确保她能击败台湾军队。

A little longer down the road it will alsolikely be confident that it can prevent the U.S. from intervening in theconflict.

不久的未来，中国似乎同样将有足够的自信阻止美国对这场冲突的干预。

However, as recent U.S. militaryconflicts have adequately demonstrated, being able to defeat another nation’sarmed forces and being able to pacify the country are two different thingsaltogether. It is in this latter aim that China’s strategy is likely tofalter. Taiwanese are adamantly opposed to being incorporated into anon-Democratic China.These feelings would only harden in the aftermath of the invasion.

然而，最近美国的军事冲突充分证明了一点，能打败一个国家跟能安抚一个国家是两码事。在后者的目标中，中国的策略可能会动摇。台湾坚决反对被纳入一个非民主的中国。这些感觉，在被入侵后，只会变得愈发强烈。

Thus, even if it quickly defeated Taiwan’s formalmilitary forces, the PLA would continue to have to contend with the remnants ofresistance for years to come. Such a scenario would be deeply unsettling forleaders in Beijing as this defiance would likelyinspire similar resistance among various groups on the mainland, starting firstand foremost with ethnic minorities in the western China. Should the PLA resort toharsh oppression to squash resistance in Taiwan, this would deeply unsettleeven Han Chinese on the mainland. In fact, the clear parallels with howImperial Japan sought to pacify Taiwanand China would be lost onno one in Chinaand elsewhere.

因此，即便她能迅速击败台湾的正规军事力量，中国人民解放军也将未来几年持续面对残余抵抗力量。这样一种局面会让北京的领导人们坐立不安，因为这种反抗可能在内地的不同群体中激发类似的反对行为，最先爆发的可能就是西部的少数民族。如果解放军在台湾实行严厉的镇压行动，甚至可能造成内地汉族的不安。事实上，这种与日本帝国主义对台策略的相似之处，会让中国人心尽失。

The entire situation would be a nightmarefor Chinese leaders. Consequently, they are nearly certain to avoid provokingit by invading Taiwan.The only real scenario in which they would invade Taiwan is if the island nationformally declared independence. But if Taiwanese leaders have avoided doing soto date, they are unlikely to think the idea is very wise as China goes stronger.

整个形势对中国领导人来说，会是一场噩梦。因此，他们会尽量避免因为入侵台湾而引发的愤怒情绪。他们入侵台湾的唯一前提，就是台湾岛先宣布独立。但台湾领导人会避免这样做，他们也不认为此举将是明智的，因为中国正变得越来越强大。

Thus, the status-quo in the Taiwanesestrait is unlikely to be changed by military force. Instead, Beijingis likely to continue drawing Taiwancloser economically, and seeking to disrupt the U.S.-Taiwanese bilateralrelationship. The hope would be that leaders in Taipeiwill ultimately conclude that they cannot resist being absorbed into China, something China itself can facilitate this byoffering favorable terms.

因此，海峡两岸的现状不太可能因为军事力量的变化而发生改变。相反，北京更愿意从经济的角度来吸引台湾，并试图破坏美国台湾的双边关系。希望台湾领导人最终会得出他们无法抗拒被纳入中国的结论，中国本身可以通过提供有利的条件促进这一切的发生。

评论
akira
December 30, 2013 at 11:21
The best strategy for China is to actively encourage and endorse Taiwan’sstatehood. The result will be a pro-china state with credible power, a loyalmilitary ally and a staunch supporter of China for years to come. Itactually is the best strategy to maximize, and multiply, China’s interests and power at nocost.

对于中国而言，最好的办法就是积极鼓励和认可台湾的国际地位。此举将给中国带来一个支持中国的国家，一个忠诚的军事盟友，未来几年的坚定支持者。这实际上是深化中国利益的一本万利的好办法。

akira
December 30, 2013 at 11:44
I should add that, as outrageous as it mayappear to be, the most unthinkable strategy can be the best strategy, and themost unthinkable outcome needs not always be a pessimistic one. Fear can beovercome, even children do it all the time.

我要补充一点，最不可思议的方法可能是最好的方法，同样，最不可思议的结果也并非总是悲剧的。恐惧是可以被克服的，即便孩子也能做到。

Calvin
December 29, 2013 at 17:28
As the author did not use framework todiscuss this topic, Chinese and Taiwanese is more of a constructivist frameworkrather than realist.
The author considered military power as animportant consideration, and at times he also uses the consideration of balanceof power against Chinaas a deterring factor.
I would beg to differ on the points above,as viewed under a constructivist framework, the concept of One China andhistorically independence, has become very important concept.
How important is “One China Policy” ? Thesedays, we have started to see Chinausing their new maritime advantages to announce ECS ID zone over a small Diaoyu Island.For a country like China,one should not underestimate her desire for the taking over of Taiwan.
However, the Taiwanese has a radicallydifferent thinking as the mainland, just like other Overseas Chinese populations.Unfortunately, the mainlanders are emptying the islandof Taiwan and for survival, manyelites in Taiwanhas already switched side, and is not now on the permanent slide towardsunification.

作者并未使用结构框架来讨论这个问题，中台之间更多的是个构成主义，而非现实主义。作者将军事力量作为一个重要的因素来考虑，有时他将力量的平衡作为阻碍中国的一个因素来考虑。我不同意以上观点，在构成主义框架下，一个中国以及历史上独立的概念，已经变得非常重要了。“一中政策”有多重要？这些天，我们已经开始看到中国运用其新的海军优势，在钓鱼岛上空划定防空识别圈。对于一个像中国这样的国家，谁都不能低估她对控制台湾的渴望。然而，台湾人就像其他海外华人一样，与内地有着截然不同的思维模式。不幸的是，
内地人为了生存正在清空台湾岛，台湾的精英们已经开始转变，且并非永久地滑向统一。

Daimler Altschuh
December 27, 2013 at 19:39
PRC is highly unlikely to invade Taiwan unless Taiwanallows the USto set up a military base there, but the Taiwanese are smart enough not toallow that to happen. Taiwanand PRC are more intertwined than ever before economically and in blood ties.

中共中国极其不可能入侵台湾，除非台湾允许美国在台湾建立军事基地，但是台湾人足够明智，不会允许这样的事情发生。台湾和中国不管是在经济领域还是在民族血缘关系上，彼此之间的关系都较之以前更为错综复杂。

Aboigim
December 30, 2013 at 23:03
Should the USestablish millitary installations in Taiwanit’ll increase the deterrence on China. The fear of nuclear war iseverybody’s fear even the Chinese. In the worst case scenario it will just endin a conventional warfare where Chinawill be humiliated.

美国如果在台建立军事基地，这将大大增加对中国的威慑。人人都惧怕核战争，中国也不例外。最坏的情况，就是利用常规战争痛扁中国。

tteng
December 27, 2013 at 03:38
Last night we went to a dinner party, amongthe guests were several Qinghua graduates (in their late 40′s to early 50′s) who came of age during the tailend of CR, came to the states for their engineeringgraduate degrees, stayed and work here in the SiliconeValley, and spent considerable timetraveling between the states/China/(and Taiwan for business). Since my wifeand I were the only ones from Taiwan;I asked them,
1. when is China ready for one-person-one-votedemocracy? The general impression I got from their responses: about 20-30years. The reason: the average Chinese is not ‘ready’ for democracy (i.e. theself realized altruistic responsibilities to make it work). Though thehardwares (i.e. infrasturctures) are there, the software (i.e. the quality ofthe people) has not caught up.
2. What then, in between now and in 30years? Their responses: elitetocracy (sic), or ‘democracy’ among the elites,much like CCP of today. Everyone of these Qinghua gradutates were invited andvetted by CCP to join. Not everyone joined, but CCP only asked and accepted thebest.
3. What’s their impression about Taiwanesewhen visited there? Their responses: polite, helpful, and not out to takeadvantage of the visitors.
My take away:
Taiwan(and Taiwanese) is a prototype-China showcasing what a democratic and civilChinese society can be like. That Chinese-in-Taiwan has been there, done that;therefore, so can Chinese-on-mainland.

昨晚我们去参加一个晚宴，来宾当中有好几个中国清华毕业生（大概四十多或五十岁出头），他们都是在CR末期来到这里，攻读工程硕士学位，然后留硅谷工作生活。因为生意，常游走在中国/美国（以及台湾）。只有我跟我妻子是来自于台湾；我问他们：
1、中国打算什么时候开始一人一票的民主制度？我收到的回复给我的总体印象是：大约20到30年以后。原因就是：大部分的中国老百姓还没有做好“准备”迎接民主的到来（例如 自我意识中要有利他的责任感）。虽然硬件（基础设施）已经没问题，但是软件（例如人口素质）还没跟上硬件的发展。
2、那么，从现在到30年以后是什么样子呢？他们的回答是：精英政治或“精英民主”，就像今天的中国GCD。在场的每个清华生都收到了入党邀请和审查。并非每个人都参加了，但是中国GCD只邀请和接受了最优秀的人。
3、当他们访问台湾是，对台湾的印象是什么？他们的回答是：礼貌，热心，但并不利用游客。
我的想法是：
台湾（以及台湾人）是民主中国的写照。台湾人已经做到了；因此，内地人也可以做到。

Tteng
December 29, 2013 at 15:11
Regarding CCP personal membership, I don’tknow. But one of them works for Huawei, which has heavy presence in both theValley (eating Cisco’s lunch) and San  Diego (eating Qualcomm’s) by out paying itsaforementioned competitors.
Well..it is basically like CCP-electronics(otherwise known as Huawei) throws down a gauntlet at the heart of the USelectronics/network industries, on US soil, and one tries to guess how much ofits US workforce are non-Chinese and non-CCP.
That horse (CCP check) left the barn (ICEwatch) long ago already.

说道中共的党员关系，我不太清楚。但是华为里面有一些党员，华为通过收购竞争对手，在硅谷（思科）和旧金山（高通）可不容小觑。
好吧。。。它基本上算是中共电子公司（也称为华为），在美国本土，向美国电子/互联网行业的要害部位打了一记猛拳，而我们还在试图猜测有多少美国劳力非中国人，非中共党员。
中共这匹马早已脱离美国移民和海关局的缰绳老久了，好咩。

Nawiat
December 26, 2013 at 08:38
Whoever use English and think in Englishcan’t understand 華人思維及文化。 it’s totally different and complicatethan you think. So don’t bother yourself and forget about how American can earn largest gain!Mind your own business and control your gun for not shooting your own children.

那些个说英语的人是不会明白“華人思維及文化”的。这与你想的完全不同，也更为复杂。所以不要自寻烦恼了，忘记美国如何才能获得最大收获吧！管好你自己的事吧，管好你的抢，别朝你自己的孩子射击就好。

Tom F
December 27, 2013 at 07:52
Considering there’s not even a directMandarin translation for the English word ‘United’, I think that says it allabout the nature of China…. It should have been a ‘United’ Kingdom for all Chinese people, not CentreKindom …. centre of what? China’sneighbours.
Considering Chinasupplied guns to the worst genocidal regime of all time, Pol Pot, I think youbetter keep your advice, while you’re at it, please also stop supplyingoutrageously cruel terrorists in the Philippines as well.

考虑针对英语单词“统一”，没有直接的汉语翻译，我认为那说的都是中国的特性。。。它对于所有的中国人来说，应该是一个“联合”王国，而不是中央王国。。。什么的中心？中国的邻国们。
考虑到中国总是为世界上最没有人性的政权提供武器，比如波尔布特，我认为你最好闭嘴，别提出什么建议，而你，也请停止向菲律宾的残忍的恐怖分子肆无忌惮地提供支援的行为。

klu
December 26, 2013 at 04:15
US will sell F-35 and Osprey to every allyexcept Taiwan.What does it mean? There is no future for Taiwanas it already given that Chinacan and will reclaimed it.

美国向除了台湾以外的每个盟友销售F35和鱼鹰。这意味着什么？这意味着台湾已经没有什么未来可言了，因为台湾预期将被中国收回。

Don Bacon
December 26, 2013 at 01:42
How could “Chinaacquire Taiwan” when Taiwan is a part of China? In fact, Taipeisees itself as the capital of China,calling itself to Republic of China.

台湾是中国的一部分，那么又怎么能说“中国收回台湾”呢？事实上，台北认为自己才是中国的首都，它称自己为中华民国。

Emelio Lizardo
December 26, 2013 at 01:27
Zack, is English your second language?
Beyond the cold war attitudes, theTaiwanese feel no kinship with Chinawhich has a wholly separate culture and history, the same with Tibet.
Moreover, China would be considerablyimproved and enriched without these territories.

Zack，英语不是你的母语吧？
超出冷战的态度，台湾人觉得自己跟中国没有什么亲缘关系，认为彼此有着完全不同的文化和历史，就跟XZ一样。
此外，没有这些领土，中国自身将得到极大的改善和提升。

9 dashes, 4 dishes, 1 soup
December 25, 2013 at 18:54
Unlike South Korea, the US bears some moral responsibilityfor the predicament of the Taiwanese. It should allow for peaceful resettlementof Taiwanese in the United  States — green cards.
The British set a good example with Hong Kong. America should pay heed.
Both South Korea and Taiwanare inside the blast zone when war comes. The US owes some consideration to theTaiwanese people.

不像韩国，在台湾问题上，美国肩负着一些道德责任。它应该允许台湾人移民美国—获取绿卡。英国人在香港问题上带了个好榜样，美国人应该注意到这点。当战争来临，韩国和台湾都会处于风暴地带，美国对台湾人民欠缺了一些考虑。

Derek
December 25, 2013 at 17:02
What really matters is that China increasingly has the ability to invade Taiwan. But theimportant thing to note is that even the perceived ability for China to performsuch an action is a watershed moment for the current global order.
The fear of the inability to maintain thestatus quo is one that has been brewing for a long time.

真正关键的是，中国军力不断增长，拿下台湾变得越来越不是个问题。但值得注意的一件重要的事情是，即便中国具有执行这个行动的感知力，这也将成为世界新秩序的分水岭。

Me
December 24, 2013 at 23:57
If Chinainvaded Taiwan today, Japanand South Koreawould be nuclear armed by tomorrow.

如果台湾今天遭到中国的入侵，那么，韩国和日本明天就等着被核弹瞄准吧。

Michael Turton
December 24, 2013 at 21:09
I’ve responded to this here.
http://michaelturton.blogspot.co ... -yes-of-course.html
Why do we see that same dopey picture of MaYing-jeou on so many Taiwanarticles? Feel free to pillage my flickr account for Taiwan pictures, no need to pay,just credit me. http://www.flickr.com/photos/michaelturton/?details=1

我已经在这里发表了我的回复。
http://michaelturton.blogspot.co ... -yes-of-course.html
为什么在很多有关台湾的文章里面，我们都看了马英九的痴呆照？我网络相册里面的台湾照片，大家随意下载吧，不要钱的，相信我。
http://www.flickr.com/photos/michaelturton/?details=1


swoosh
December 24, 2013 at 19:35
Comparing Chinese invasion on Taiwan with USinvasion on Afghanistan and Iraq is likecomparing apple and orange. The Chinese in Mainland and The Taiwanese share thesame culture, languages and even surnames. The Americans and the Afghans andIraqis share nothing. Sure there will be opposition if, and that is a big IF, China invade and conquer Taiwan, but it will be much easier for China to pacify them, unlike the USeffort to pacify the Afghans or Iraqis.

拿中国入侵台湾与美国入侵阿富汗和伊拉克作比较，就像是拿一个苹果与橘子做比较一样。内地的中国人与台湾人同宗同源，有着相同的语言及文化。而美国人与阿富汗人和伊拉克人完全是两码事。中国如果攻打台湾，这里有且必然有反抗，但是中国安抚台湾，比起美国安抚阿富汗或伊拉克而言，那将容易得多。

greg
December 25, 2013 at 08:49
Do they share the same heart?

他们还共享心脏么？

Lei
December 24, 2013 at 15:56
One other point is that if China could effectively invade Taiwan, that might actually achieve the oppositeof what the author is suggesting and result in MORE countries bandwagoning to China.If China could occupy Taiwan and successfully deter the US, orkeep it from even entering the conflict, that would signal a massive collapsein the credibility of USpower. Many countries would simply assume it is safer to be on China’s goodside than bad side, especially if the relationship is already pretty good ortolerable. It would also have the effect of militarizing Japan, which wouldn’t necessarily be seenpositively by every country in the region and may further drive some countriestoward’s China’s sphere ofinfluence, even as other country’s shift towards what may become Japan’sgrowing sphere of influence. The simple assumption that every country wouldcollaborate against China isa naive one borne out of an ignorance of how contentious the relationships ofEast Asian countries can be not including China.

另一个问题是，如果中国能有效地入侵台湾，就像作者暗示的那样，这实际上可能取得相反的效果，导致更多国家抱团制衡中国。但如果中国能占领台湾，且击退美国，或者说，根本将美国置之门外，那这就意味着美国力量的崩溃。很多国家就会认为，与中国保持一致更加有利于自身安全，特别是在本身与中国的关系已经很不错或者可以忍受的情况下。这对日本军事化一样有影响，当然对于本区域的每个国家来说，这种影响并非都是积极的。但可能使得中国深化对一些国家的影响，甚至可能使得一些国家并入日本的势力范围。简单认为各国将抱团制衡中国的人真是太天真了，这证明其对于不包括中国的具有争议性的东亚各国之间的关系是有多么的无知。

RJS
December 24, 2013 at 15:50
The author obviously have not spent a lotof time in Taiwan…
Taiwanese are adamantly opposed to beingincorporated into a non-Democratic China. These feelings would onlyharden in the aftermath of the invasion.
“Thus, even ifit quickly defeated Taiwan’s formal military forces, the PLA would continue tohave to contend with the remnants of resistance for years to come.”
This is a very naive statement and not atall based on reality. Most Taiwanese are complete cowards when it comes toresistance and the personal sacrifice that is required of resistance fighters.The Muslims that the United Stateshad to deal with in its wars in the Middle East had religious fanaticism todeal with – no such fanaticism exists in Taiwan today. Moreover, over 50% ofthe population, when push comes to shove, will admit to being Chinese.
A PLA takeover and suppression campaignwill not result in mass riots, resistance fighters, etc. The Taiwanese aresimply too cowardly to do this…

这作者明显没花什么时间研究台湾问题、、、、
“台湾坚决反对被纳入一个非民主的中国。这些感觉，在被入侵后，只会变得愈发强烈。
因此，即便她能迅速击败台湾的正规军事力量，中国人民解放军也将未来几年持续面对残余抵抗力量。”
这真是中幼稚的说法，且完全脱离现实。大多数的台湾人在遇到阻力或者需要自我牺牲时，都非常懦弱。美国在中东战争中不得不对付的穆斯林分子，都有着强烈的宗教狂热—但如今，在台湾，已经没有信仰了。而且，超过50%的台湾人，在事态变得严重时，会承认自己是中国人。
解放军的接管和镇压活动，才不会导致大规模骚乱和抵抗运动等等。台湾人太懦弱，不会这样做的…


...
December 25, 2013 at 01:14
I’d recommend you do some reading on theresistance that the KMT faced in Taiwan, and the many deaths thatresulted from violent resistance to their rule.
It’s a dangerous thing to assume that apeople, any people, are weak and can be easily cowed. All empires assume this,and it frequently doesn’t work out their way.

我建议你去读一些有关于国民党在台湾面对的反抗运动的资料，以及那时候由于暴力抵抗国民党统治而造成的死亡人数。假设一个人或任何人是软弱的，懦弱的，这是件危险的事情。所有的帝国主义都这么假设，但常常做出了错误的估计。

RJS
December 26, 2013 at 09:12
The resistance the KMT during the take overin 1949 was short lived, and today about 50% of benshenren (go look up thatterm) actively support the KMT. This is a result of 70 years of brainwashinginto thinking they are, after all, “Chinese.”
You want proof that this is a weakpopulation? Here it is…90% of Taiwanese parents actively look for ways fortheir sons to dodge military service and the majority of Taiwanese ridiculethose who join the “martial” professions, i.e. military and police. This isbecause some idiot named Confucius said a good piece of iron isn’t use to makea nail just as a good man isn’t used to make a soldier…One recruit dies incompulsory military service and everyone freaks out.
You want further proof that this populationcan be easily cowed? Just look at the hard time the military is having tryingto develop into an all volunteer force. It can’t. A population that is not evenwilling to sacrifice in peacetime is less likely to do anything in wartime whentheir lives are on the line.
There is no sense of patriotism and nosense of nationalism on this island. Many say they want an independent Taiwan, very,very, very few are willing to sacrifice to achieve it. Most just “want” theAmericans to come and protect them; the remainder cling on to this illusionthat the Chinese will be democratic and it will be a peaceful union.
Here is what will happen in a PLA invasion.Initially, there will be a short resistance movement after the “formal”military forces have been rendered combat ineffective. Then the PLA/CCP willestablish rewards, much like the Japanese did, for those who turn in theirneighbors. Unlike Japan,who are clearly of a different ethnic group, the majority of Taiwanese willrationalise and fall back on their 70-years of KMT indoctrination that they areChinese, and start to turn in their neighbors who are part of the resistance as“troublemakers”, especially if there is monetary or personal gain involved. TheChinese aren’t stupid…the Taiwanese are cowardly and greedy – this resistancewill last about a day…

国民党在1949年遭遇的抵抗是短暂的，并且今天超过50%的本省人（自己去找这个词）非常支持国民党。这是70年洗脑的结果，终究是“中国人”。
你想要关于台湾人懦弱的证据？这里有。。。90%的台湾家长积极地给孩子寻找逃避兵役的方法，且大多数台湾人都嘲笑那些加入了“军事”行业的人，比如军人和警察。这位因为一个叫做孔子的白痴说过，好铁不打钉，好男不当兵。。。一个新兵在义务兵役制下死掉，全民发飙。
你想要更多关于台湾人懦弱的证据？看看军队试图发展为全义务制的所面临的艰难局面。一个民族在和平时期都不愿意做出牺牲，那么在战时，更不可能做出什么事情来。
在这个岛上，没有爱国主义，也没有民族主义。很多人说他们想要台湾独立，但少之又少的人愿意为此做出牺牲。大部分人只是“想要”美国人来保护他们；剩下的则在幻想，中国是民主的，这是个民主的联盟。
当解放军攻台，这将会发生什么？最初，当正规军队被轻易击溃时，会有短暂的抵抗运动。然后中共/解放军会设立奖励制度，就像当初日本人那样，奖励那些告发邻居的人。不像日本，毕竟是不同的种族，大部分的台湾人会依靠国民党70年的教化，合理地认为自己是中国人，然后将进行抵抗运动的他们的邻居，作为“麻烦制造者”检举出来，特别还当涉及到金钱或者利益的时候，更是理所当然。中国人可不笨。。。台湾人却又贪婪又懦弱——这抵抗运动估计也就持续一天左右。。。

Lei
December 24, 2013 at 15:38
I found this article rather unconvincing.The author’s first rationale didn’t stop the US from invading Iraq, and theimpact of that will fade over time if the country has enough influence (whichChina will be accruing over time, not with the OECDs but with the developingcountries which aren’t as bothered by these things and will have increasingeconomic power). It will certainly unsettle China’s neighbors, but given thatthe Taiwan issue is further away from the fear of an imperialist China than saythe China Sea Island disputes, it’s unlikely they would let Taiwan permanentlyimpact their relationships (except Japan, who has an immense interest in havingTaiwan as a buffer between it and China). Furthermore, the assumption thatevery country would begin to bandwagon against China is simplistic and ignores thegreater complexity of the relationships between the countries in the region.Some countries in East Asia would certainly find itself in greater oppositionto and consternation with Chinaif China occupied Taiwan,but many won’t.
His second reason is better, but is noguarantee. For one, not every one in Taiwan would actively resist aChinese implemented rule. Many would simply go along with it. Of course,resistance would probably still be very robust with many sympathizers, andviolence would be frequent, but there is a way to manage this type of violencein society over the long term, even if it provides an element of instability.These include migration and gradual assimilation of the occupied population,control of education and propaganda, and harsh security measures (all of which Taiwan has experienced once when Chiang Kai-Shekmoved the ROC to Taiwan),especially since there is no ethnic divide, unlike the other separatist ethnicconflicts in the PRIC. Third, the Han population in Mainland China has a MUCH greater tolerance for that kindof unstable violence than the author presumes, especially if this was framed asforeign influenced separatists trying to tear China apart. The sentiment towardsa unified Chinaby the PRC’s population should not be underestimated.

我发现这篇文章完全不能让人信服。作者的第一个理由没有能够阻止美国入侵伊拉克，并且如果这个国家有着足够的影响力，这种入侵带来的影响会随着时间而消逝（中国将随着时间不断取得发展，不是随着经合组织，而是随着不受这些事情影响的发展中国家，且将提升自己的经济力量）。（收回台湾）也必将让中国的邻国感到不安，但考虑到台湾问题比起中国南海岛屿争端，更不能用来证明中国帝国主义，所以也不太可能让台湾问题一直影响他们之间的关系（除了日本，因为日本在利用台湾作为自身与中国之间的缓冲带这个问题上，有着核心利益）。此外，假设各国抱团反制中国的想法，真是太过于简单，也忽视了该区域各国之间更为错综复杂的关系。如果中国占领台湾，东亚一些国家必然会反对且恐惧，但是还有很多国家却不会。
他的第二个理由更好，但并非一定会发生。第一，台湾并非人人抵制中国的统治。很多人会接受这一情况。当然，因为一些支持（独立）者，抵抗运动也会有的，暴力运动也会时有发生，但是，从长远来看，有一种办法能管理好这种暴力行动，即便这给社会提供了不稳定的因素。这些办法包括对占领区人口的迁移和同化，以及教育和宣传管制，还有严格的安全措施(所有这些，在蒋介石将中华民国搬到台湾时，台湾都经历过)，特别是在没有民族分裂的情况下，更容易实现，不像在中国极地研究中，还有民族冲突。第三，中国内地的汉族，比起作者假设的那样，对这种不稳定的暴力行为有着更大的容忍性，特别是如果这一切是由外来势力想分裂中国而造成的。中华人民共和国民众对于一个统一的中国的向往，不应该被低估。

meh
December 24, 2013 at 10:30
Slowly fewer Taiwanese are opposed to China as itincreases its economical influence on the island. That is the way of battle Chinachose years ago and has been pursuing all the time.

随着中国对台湾岛经济影响力的增强，台湾人对中国的反对会慢慢减少。这是中国多年前就选择，并一直在推行的战斗方式。

ma
December 24, 2013 at 19:18
Proof?

证据？

BeWay
December 26, 2013 at 04:49
The good-for-nothing DPP party that shoutedloudly for independence is losing popular votes like nobody business. Isn’tthis not proven?

高声疾呼台湾独立的一无是处的民进党失去了选民。这能够证明么？

aether
December 24, 2013 at 09:39
Chinese are not knowing for naval or aircompetence; but they are known for using massive population and economic meansto absorb their neighbors, as witnessed in formerly non-Chinese Manchuria,nan-viet, Dali now called Northeast, Canton, and Yunnan

中国的海空军力量不为人所知；但他们使用大规模人口和经济吸引邻居的手段可是闻名天下的，证据就是之前被称为不属于中国的满洲，安南，大理，现在被人称为东北、广东和云南。

starone
December 24, 2013 at 09:35
It is obvious that China will not attack Taiwan as long as the status quostands. There is no reason why they would want to do that to the benefit ofothers especially to those that would like to paint a grim picture that theywill do it to cause a certain degree of contention.

只要维持现状，中国摆明了不会攻打台湾。没有理由这样做，让人家的好处，特别是让那些想要抹黑中国的人，这会在一定程度上造成一个焦点。

Ryokai
December 25, 2013 at 12:45
Taiwanese won’t show any willingness toabsorbed by PRC as long as the economic and social disparity between the twosociety exists. This means that PRC has to demonstrate that it is at least asadvanced and liberal as Taiwanis. Given PRC’s record of corruption, human rights abuse and pollution thisdemonstration will be long in coming.

只要两个社会中，存在这经济和社会差异，台湾人不会愿意并入中华人民共和国。这意味着中国必须证明它至少是和台湾一样先进和自由的。鉴于中国的腐败记录、人权记录和污染，这个展示，在一段时间的未来才能出现。

Tiu Nia Sing
December 24, 2013 at 09:17
The west, mainly the US, is trying to drive a wedge between China and Taiwan. MIC doctrine, selling armsto make dineros.
The notion of one country two systems toembrace Hong Kong back into the fold of China, can be expanded by the lateparamount leader Deng Xiaopoing and he categorically said that we can have onecountry many systems before he passed away i.e. Taiwancan keep its arm forces and just admit outwardly that Taiwan is part of Chinaand may be one day the party from Taiwancan be part of the electoral system in which the whole of China can take part.
The Chinese is only interested principallyin developing the economies of both sides and political wrangling is not theway of achieving it. and both sides know that Chinahas no appetite to attack Taiwan,the two entities are divided by a common culture, common language, and a commonpeople, and a common political system will follow no matter how long it takes

西方，主要是美国，试图离间中国和台湾。军事主义者好兜售武器赚钱。
一国两制使得香港回归中国，这个概念可以追溯至中国最高领导人邓小平，他去世之前，直截了当的指出，一个国家的前提下，可以有多个系统。例如台湾能保留自己的武装且只要表面上承认，台湾是属于中国的一部分。并且某天，可能台湾的政党也参与全中国的选举。
中国感兴趣的只是发展双方的经济，而不是实现它的政治角力的方式。且双方都知道中国没有想法攻打台湾，这两个实体有着共同的文化，共同的语言以及共同的民族，不管需要多久时间，两者都将遵循一个共同的政治体系。

Oro Invictus
December 24, 2013 at 08:18
Not too much to say here; I’ve held asimilar position for some time now, and anyone who feels so inclined can searchfor my past thoughts on the matter.
I will, however, say this: Taiwan is not the US’ to give, nor is it the PRC’s totake. It need not become independent nor need it be subsumed; its path is,singularly, the choice of the Taiwanese. Those who seek to infringe upon Taiwaneseself-determination are simply declaring to the world they care not about thepeople, do not believe them to be equals to themselves.

在这儿不用说太多；我一直以来就有着差不多的观念，感兴趣的人可以去搜我之前的留言。
我想在这儿说的是：台湾不是美国给，也不是中国拿的问题。它不需要独立也不需要被并入；它的路，来自于台湾人民的选择。
那些自顾自做决定，试图侵犯台湾的人，只是在向世界宣告，他们不关心人民，也不认为这里的人和他们是一样平等的。

...
December 25, 2013 at 01:20
“Taiwan is notthe US’ to give, nor is it the PRC’s to take.”
That sentence doesn’t get mentioned inthese debates for some reason, when it should be one and only argumentpresent.. I agree completely, it is up to Taiwan to choose if they want to bea sovereign state or a province of the PRC.
Up to now, and in the forseeable future (inmy opinion), they will choose to be sovereign.

“台湾不是美国给，也不是中国拿的问题。”
这句话，当它作为唯一的论据存在时，基于一些原因，在这些争辩中，不会被提及。。。我完全同意，这一切取决于台湾的选择，他们是想成为一个主权国家，还是想成为中华人民共和国的一个省。
到目前为止，以及可预见的将来（我的观点中），他们将选择成为一个主权国家。

【外交家】为什么中国不会攻打台湾
译文来源:【外交家】【链接】http://thediplomat.com/2013/12/why-china-wont-attack-taiwan/
翻译：龙腾

Why China Won't Attack Taiwan
为何中国不会攻击台湾


It is extremely unlikely that China will invade Taiwan , much less succeed.

中国不太可能入侵台湾，更不用说获得胜利了。

Although relatively muted in recent years, Taiwanis seen as the greatest potential flashpoint in U.S.-China relations. Indeed, U.S. defense analysts perceive China’s expanding Anti-Access/Area Denial(A2/AD) capabilities primarily through the lens of preventing the U.S. from intervening should Beijinginvade Taiwan.Consequently, the main concepts the U.S. military has developed for counteringA2/AD — namely, Air-Sea Battle and a blockade approach — appear to be based onthe assumption that a shooting war with China would break out over Taiwan.

虽然近年来关系相对温和，但台湾是中美关系中潜在的最大的导火索。事实上，美国国防分析人士认为，中国不断扩大的反介入/区域封锁(A2/AD)功能主要通过阻止美国干预北京入侵台湾来实现的。因此，美国军方行成的对于对抗A2/AD的主要概念——即海空作战和阻断拦截——似乎存在于中国与台湾之间会爆发战争的基础上。

* In many ways, the concern over Taiwanis well-placed. China covets the island far morethan any other piece of real estate, including the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands. ForCCP leaders and many ordinary Chinese, Taiwan is one of the vast remainingvestiges of the country’s century of humiliation. Acquiring Taiwan wouldalso significantly enhance the PLA’s ability to project power outwardly.Despite improvements in cross-Strait relations in recent years, China hasrefused to rule out the possibility of invasion.

在很多方面，对于台湾的关注都是精心布局的。中国对于台湾的觊觎，远远超过了对于其他地方的渴望，这其中也包括钓鱼岛/尖阁列岛。对于中共领导人及千千万万的中国普通老百姓来说，台湾是遗留至今的中国所遭受的世纪耻辱的证据之一。收回台湾同样也能显著提升中国人民解放军对外作战能力。尽管近年来两岸关系有所改善，但中国仍然拒绝放弃入侵台湾的可能性。

Besides having the motivation to acquire Taiwan, China seemingly is rapidlyacquiring the capability to take the island by force. In recent years, thecross-Strait military balance has rapidly shifted in Beijing’sfavor, and this trend is almost certain to continue so long as China’seconomy continues to grow. Today, Chinahas at least 1,600 ballistic missiles pointed at Taiwan,and Taiwan’s own Ministry ofDefense admits that Chinawill have sufficient military capabilities to mount a full cross-Strait attackby 2020.

除了收回台湾的动机之外，中国武力夺岛的能力似乎正在快速增长。近几年，两岸军事杠杆迅速倾向于北京一方，并且，只要中国的经济继续增长，这一趋势肯定会继续下去。今天，中国有着至少1600枚弹道导弹瞄准着台湾，台湾国防部承认，到2020年，中国将有足够的能力发动海峡战争。

This has led some U.S. analysts, particularly academics of theRealist persuasion, to argue that the U.S.should gradually cede Taiwanto the People’s Republic of China.For example, Charles Glaser argued in a controversial Foreign Affairs articlein 2011 that, given the risks of nuclear war between China and the UnitedStates, “the United States should consider backing away from its commitment toTaiwan. This would remove the most obvious and contentious flash point betweenthe United States and China and smooth the way for better relations betweenthem in the decades to come.”

这一切使得一些美国的分析家们，特别是现实主义的学者们倾向于说服美国逐步向中华人民共和国放弃台湾。例如，2011年CharlesGlaser在一篇具有争议的外交事务文章中说道，考虑到中美之间发生核战争的风险，“美国应该考虑放弃对台湾的承诺。此举将能消除中美之间最明显且最易于引发冲突的因素，并能为两国在将来几十年中的友好关系铺平道路。”

Similarly, in a recent talk in Taiwan, John Mearsheimer argued that short ofacquiring an independent nuclear deterrent, Taiwan’sbest option is to pursue the “Hong Kong strategy” toward Beijing. Under the Hong Kong strategy, “Taiwan accepts the fact it is doomed to lose itsindependence and become part of China.It then works hard to make sure that the transition is peaceful and that itgains as much autonomy as possible from Beijing.”

同样的，JohnMearsheimer在最近一次在台湾的谈话中认为，由于缺乏独立的核威慑力量，台湾的最佳策略就是向北京要求“香港策略”。在香港策略下，“台湾要接受它最终将丧失独立性且变成中国的一部分的事实。然后努力确保过渡过程的平和，如此它才能从北京手里获得更可能多的自主权。”

Although the trend lines are undoubtedlyworking in China’s favor, itis ultimately extremely unlikely that Chinawill try to seize Taiwanby force. Furthermore, should it try to do this, it is unlikely to succeed.

尽管趋势无疑是对中国有利，但中国最终微乎其微试图通过武力夺取台湾。此外，如果它试图这么做，它也不可能获得成功。

Even assuming China’smilitary capabilities are great enough to prevent the U.S. from intervening, there are two forces thatwould likely be sufficient to deter Chinafrom invading Taiwan.The first and least important is the dramatic impact this would have on howcountries in the region and around the world would view such a move. Globally, China seizing Taiwan would result in it beingpermanently viewed as a malicious nation. Regionally, China’s invasion of Taiwanwould diminish any lingering debate over how Beijing will use its growing power. Everyregional power would see its own fate in Taiwan. Although Beijingwould try to reassure countries by claiming that Taiwanwas part of China already, andthus the operation was a domestic stability one, this narrative would beconvincing to none of China’sneighbors. Consequently, Beijingwould face an environment in which each state was dedicated to cooperating withothers to balance against Chinese power.

即使假设中国的军事能力大得足以阻止美国对此进行干预，可能会存在两股力量足以阻止中国入侵台湾。首先，也是最无足轻重的就是，此举在该地区和世界各地眼中，将产生怎样引人注目的影响。从全球范围来说，中国武力夺取台湾的举动必将导致她永久地背上邪恶国家的名号。区域范围里，中国入侵台湾的举动，一定会将有关中国将如何运用其日益增加的军事能力的争议一扫而清。该区域内的每个国家，在台湾身上都能看到自己未来的命运。尽管北京会试图以台湾是中国固有领土，此举只为安抚国内稳定，这一理由来说服这些国家，但这一说辞是不会让她任何一个邻国信服的。因此，中国必将面临一个所有邻国彼此抱团以抗衡中国力量的局面。

But the more important deterrent for Chinawould be the uncertainty of success. To be sure, China’smilitary capabilities are growing to the point where it will soon be assured ofits ability to quickly defeat Taiwan’smilitary forces.

但更重要的是，中国无法确保胜利。可以肯定的是，中国军力的不断增长很快能确保她能击败台湾军队。

A little longer down the road it will alsolikely be confident that it can prevent the U.S. from intervening in theconflict.

不久的未来，中国似乎同样将有足够的自信阻止美国对这场冲突的干预。

However, as recent U.S. militaryconflicts have adequately demonstrated, being able to defeat another nation’sarmed forces and being able to pacify the country are two different thingsaltogether. It is in this latter aim that China’s strategy is likely tofalter. Taiwanese are adamantly opposed to being incorporated into anon-Democratic China.These feelings would only harden in the aftermath of the invasion.

然而，最近美国的军事冲突充分证明了一点，能打败一个国家跟能安抚一个国家是两码事。在后者的目标中，中国的策略可能会动摇。台湾坚决反对被纳入一个非民主的中国。这些感觉，在被入侵后，只会变得愈发强烈。

Thus, even if it quickly defeated Taiwan’s formalmilitary forces, the PLA would continue to have to contend with the remnants ofresistance for years to come. Such a scenario would be deeply unsettling forleaders in Beijing as this defiance would likelyinspire similar resistance among various groups on the mainland, starting firstand foremost with ethnic minorities in the western China. Should the PLA resort toharsh oppression to squash resistance in Taiwan, this would deeply unsettleeven Han Chinese on the mainland. In fact, the clear parallels with howImperial Japan sought to pacify Taiwanand China would be lost onno one in Chinaand elsewhere.

因此，即便她能迅速击败台湾的正规军事力量，中国人民解放军也将未来几年持续面对残余抵抗力量。这样一种局面会让北京的领导人们坐立不安，因为这种反抗可能在内地的不同群体中激发类似的反对行为，最先爆发的可能就是西部的少数民族。如果解放军在台湾实行严厉的镇压行动，甚至可能造成内地汉族的不安。事实上，这种与日本帝国主义对台策略的相似之处，会让中国人心尽失。

The entire situation would be a nightmarefor Chinese leaders. Consequently, they are nearly certain to avoid provokingit by invading Taiwan.The only real scenario in which they would invade Taiwan is if the island nationformally declared independence. But if Taiwanese leaders have avoided doing soto date, they are unlikely to think the idea is very wise as China goes stronger.

整个形势对中国领导人来说，会是一场噩梦。因此，他们会尽量避免因为入侵台湾而引发的愤怒情绪。他们入侵台湾的唯一前提，就是台湾岛先宣布独立。但台湾领导人会避免这样做，他们也不认为此举将是明智的，因为中国正变得越来越强大。

Thus, the status-quo in the Taiwanesestrait is unlikely to be changed by military force. Instead, Beijingis likely to continue drawing Taiwancloser economically, and seeking to disrupt the U.S.-Taiwanese bilateralrelationship. The hope would be that leaders in Taipeiwill ultimately conclude that they cannot resist being absorbed into China, something China itself can facilitate this byoffering favorable terms.

因此，海峡两岸的现状不太可能因为军事力量的变化而发生改变。相反，北京更愿意从经济的角度来吸引台湾，并试图破坏美国台湾的双边关系。希望台湾领导人最终会得出他们无法抗拒被纳入中国的结论，中国本身可以通过提供有利的条件促进这一切的发生。

评论
akira
December 30, 2013 at 11:21
The best strategy for China is to actively encourage and endorse Taiwan’sstatehood. The result will be a pro-china state with credible power, a loyalmilitary ally and a staunch supporter of China for years to come. Itactually is the best strategy to maximize, and multiply, China’s interests and power at nocost.

对于中国而言，最好的办法就是积极鼓励和认可台湾的国际地位。此举将给中国带来一个支持中国的国家，一个忠诚的军事盟友，未来几年的坚定支持者。这实际上是深化中国利益的一本万利的好办法。

akira
December 30, 2013 at 11:44
I should add that, as outrageous as it mayappear to be, the most unthinkable strategy can be the best strategy, and themost unthinkable outcome needs not always be a pessimistic one. Fear can beovercome, even children do it all the time.

我要补充一点，最不可思议的方法可能是最好的方法，同样，最不可思议的结果也并非总是悲剧的。恐惧是可以被克服的，即便孩子也能做到。

Calvin
December 29, 2013 at 17:28
As the author did not use framework todiscuss this topic, Chinese and Taiwanese is more of a constructivist frameworkrather than realist.
The author considered military power as animportant consideration, and at times he also uses the consideration of balanceof power against Chinaas a deterring factor.
I would beg to differ on the points above,as viewed under a constructivist framework, the concept of One China andhistorically independence, has become very important concept.
How important is “One China Policy” ? Thesedays, we have started to see Chinausing their new maritime advantages to announce ECS ID zone over a small Diaoyu Island.For a country like China,one should not underestimate her desire for the taking over of Taiwan.
However, the Taiwanese has a radicallydifferent thinking as the mainland, just like other Overseas Chinese populations.Unfortunately, the mainlanders are emptying the islandof Taiwan and for survival, manyelites in Taiwanhas already switched side, and is not now on the permanent slide towardsunification.

作者并未使用结构框架来讨论这个问题，中台之间更多的是个构成主义，而非现实主义。作者将军事力量作为一个重要的因素来考虑，有时他将力量的平衡作为阻碍中国的一个因素来考虑。我不同意以上观点，在构成主义框架下，一个中国以及历史上独立的概念，已经变得非常重要了。“一中政策”有多重要？这些天，我们已经开始看到中国运用其新的海军优势，在钓鱼岛上空划定防空识别圈。对于一个像中国这样的国家，谁都不能低估她对控制台湾的渴望。然而，台湾人就像其他海外华人一样，与内地有着截然不同的思维模式。不幸的是，
内地人为了生存正在清空台湾岛，台湾的精英们已经开始转变，且并非永久地滑向统一。

Daimler Altschuh
December 27, 2013 at 19:39
PRC is highly unlikely to invade Taiwan unless Taiwanallows the USto set up a military base there, but the Taiwanese are smart enough not toallow that to happen. Taiwanand PRC are more intertwined than ever before economically and in blood ties.

中共中国极其不可能入侵台湾，除非台湾允许美国在台湾建立军事基地，但是台湾人足够明智，不会允许这样的事情发生。台湾和中国不管是在经济领域还是在民族血缘关系上，彼此之间的关系都较之以前更为错综复杂。

Aboigim
December 30, 2013 at 23:03
Should the USestablish millitary installations in Taiwanit’ll increase the deterrence on China. The fear of nuclear war iseverybody’s fear even the Chinese. In the worst case scenario it will just endin a conventional warfare where Chinawill be humiliated.

美国如果在台建立军事基地，这将大大增加对中国的威慑。人人都惧怕核战争，中国也不例外。最坏的情况，就是利用常规战争痛扁中国。

tteng
December 27, 2013 at 03:38
Last night we went to a dinner party, amongthe guests were several Qinghua graduates (in their late 40′s to early 50′s) who came of age during the tailend of CR, came to the states for their engineeringgraduate degrees, stayed and work here in the SiliconeValley, and spent considerable timetraveling between the states/China/(and Taiwan for business). Since my wifeand I were the only ones from Taiwan;I asked them,
1. when is China ready for one-person-one-votedemocracy? The general impression I got from their responses: about 20-30years. The reason: the average Chinese is not ‘ready’ for democracy (i.e. theself realized altruistic responsibilities to make it work). Though thehardwares (i.e. infrasturctures) are there, the software (i.e. the quality ofthe people) has not caught up.
2. What then, in between now and in 30years? Their responses: elitetocracy (sic), or ‘democracy’ among the elites,much like CCP of today. Everyone of these Qinghua gradutates were invited andvetted by CCP to join. Not everyone joined, but CCP only asked and accepted thebest.
3. What’s their impression about Taiwanesewhen visited there? Their responses: polite, helpful, and not out to takeadvantage of the visitors.
My take away:
Taiwan(and Taiwanese) is a prototype-China showcasing what a democratic and civilChinese society can be like. That Chinese-in-Taiwan has been there, done that;therefore, so can Chinese-on-mainland.

昨晚我们去参加一个晚宴，来宾当中有好几个中国清华毕业生（大概四十多或五十岁出头），他们都是在CR末期来到这里，攻读工程硕士学位，然后留硅谷工作生活。因为生意，常游走在中国/美国（以及台湾）。只有我跟我妻子是来自于台湾；我问他们：
1、中国打算什么时候开始一人一票的民主制度？我收到的回复给我的总体印象是：大约20到30年以后。原因就是：大部分的中国老百姓还没有做好“准备”迎接民主的到来（例如 自我意识中要有利他的责任感）。虽然硬件（基础设施）已经没问题，但是软件（例如人口素质）还没跟上硬件的发展。
2、那么，从现在到30年以后是什么样子呢？他们的回答是：精英政治或“精英民主”，就像今天的中国GCD。在场的每个清华生都收到了入党邀请和审查。并非每个人都参加了，但是中国GCD只邀请和接受了最优秀的人。
3、当他们访问台湾是，对台湾的印象是什么？他们的回答是：礼貌，热心，但并不利用游客。
我的想法是：
台湾（以及台湾人）是民主中国的写照。台湾人已经做到了；因此，内地人也可以做到。

Tteng
December 29, 2013 at 15:11
Regarding CCP personal membership, I don’tknow. But one of them works for Huawei, which has heavy presence in both theValley (eating Cisco’s lunch) and San  Diego (eating Qualcomm’s) by out paying itsaforementioned competitors.
Well..it is basically like CCP-electronics(otherwise known as Huawei) throws down a gauntlet at the heart of the USelectronics/network industries, on US soil, and one tries to guess how much ofits US workforce are non-Chinese and non-CCP.
That horse (CCP check) left the barn (ICEwatch) long ago already.

说道中共的党员关系，我不太清楚。但是华为里面有一些党员，华为通过收购竞争对手，在硅谷（思科）和旧金山（高通）可不容小觑。
好吧。。。它基本上算是中共电子公司（也称为华为），在美国本土，向美国电子/互联网行业的要害部位打了一记猛拳，而我们还在试图猜测有多少美国劳力非中国人，非中共党员。
中共这匹马早已脱离美国移民和海关局的缰绳老久了，好咩。

Nawiat
December 26, 2013 at 08:38
Whoever use English and think in Englishcan’t understand 華人思維及文化。 it’s totally different and complicatethan you think. So don’t bother yourself and forget about how American can earn largest gain!Mind your own business and control your gun for not shooting your own children.

那些个说英语的人是不会明白“華人思維及文化”的。这与你想的完全不同，也更为复杂。所以不要自寻烦恼了，忘记美国如何才能获得最大收获吧！管好你自己的事吧，管好你的抢，别朝你自己的孩子射击就好。

Tom F
December 27, 2013 at 07:52
Considering there’s not even a directMandarin translation for the English word ‘United’, I think that says it allabout the nature of China…. It should have been a ‘United’ Kingdom for all Chinese people, not CentreKindom …. centre of what? China’sneighbours.
Considering Chinasupplied guns to the worst genocidal regime of all time, Pol Pot, I think youbetter keep your advice, while you’re at it, please also stop supplyingoutrageously cruel terrorists in the Philippines as well.

考虑针对英语单词“统一”，没有直接的汉语翻译，我认为那说的都是中国的特性。。。它对于所有的中国人来说，应该是一个“联合”王国，而不是中央王国。。。什么的中心？中国的邻国们。
考虑到中国总是为世界上最没有人性的政权提供武器，比如波尔布特，我认为你最好闭嘴，别提出什么建议，而你，也请停止向菲律宾的残忍的恐怖分子肆无忌惮地提供支援的行为。

klu
December 26, 2013 at 04:15
US will sell F-35 and Osprey to every allyexcept Taiwan.What does it mean? There is no future for Taiwanas it already given that Chinacan and will reclaimed it.

美国向除了台湾以外的每个盟友销售F35和鱼鹰。这意味着什么？这意味着台湾已经没有什么未来可言了，因为台湾预期将被中国收回。

Don Bacon
December 26, 2013 at 01:42
How could “Chinaacquire Taiwan” when Taiwan is a part of China? In fact, Taipeisees itself as the capital of China,calling itself to Republic of China.

台湾是中国的一部分，那么又怎么能说“中国收回台湾”呢？事实上，台北认为自己才是中国的首都，它称自己为中华民国。

Emelio Lizardo
December 26, 2013 at 01:27
Zack, is English your second language?
Beyond the cold war attitudes, theTaiwanese feel no kinship with Chinawhich has a wholly separate culture and history, the same with Tibet.
Moreover, China would be considerablyimproved and enriched without these territories.

Zack，英语不是你的母语吧？
超出冷战的态度，台湾人觉得自己跟中国没有什么亲缘关系，认为彼此有着完全不同的文化和历史，就跟XZ一样。
此外，没有这些领土，中国自身将得到极大的改善和提升。

9 dashes, 4 dishes, 1 soup
December 25, 2013 at 18:54
Unlike South Korea, the US bears some moral responsibilityfor the predicament of the Taiwanese. It should allow for peaceful resettlementof Taiwanese in the United  States — green cards.
The British set a good example with Hong Kong. America should pay heed.
Both South Korea and Taiwanare inside the blast zone when war comes. The US owes some consideration to theTaiwanese people.

不像韩国，在台湾问题上，美国肩负着一些道德责任。它应该允许台湾人移民美国—获取绿卡。英国人在香港问题上带了个好榜样，美国人应该注意到这点。当战争来临，韩国和台湾都会处于风暴地带，美国对台湾人民欠缺了一些考虑。

Derek
December 25, 2013 at 17:02
What really matters is that China increasingly has the ability to invade Taiwan. But theimportant thing to note is that even the perceived ability for China to performsuch an action is a watershed moment for the current global order.
The fear of the inability to maintain thestatus quo is one that has been brewing for a long time.

真正关键的是，中国军力不断增长，拿下台湾变得越来越不是个问题。但值得注意的一件重要的事情是，即便中国具有执行这个行动的感知力，这也将成为世界新秩序的分水岭。

Me
December 24, 2013 at 23:57
If Chinainvaded Taiwan today, Japanand South Koreawould be nuclear armed by tomorrow.

如果台湾今天遭到中国的入侵，那么，韩国和日本明天就等着被核弹瞄准吧。

Michael Turton
December 24, 2013 at 21:09
I’ve responded to this here.
http://michaelturton.blogspot.co ... -yes-of-course.html
Why do we see that same dopey picture of MaYing-jeou on so many Taiwanarticles? Feel free to pillage my flickr account for Taiwan pictures, no need to pay,just credit me. http://www.flickr.com/photos/michaelturton/?details=1

我已经在这里发表了我的回复。
http://michaelturton.blogspot.co ... -yes-of-course.html
为什么在很多有关台湾的文章里面，我们都看了马英九的痴呆照？我网络相册里面的台湾照片，大家随意下载吧，不要钱的，相信我。
http://www.flickr.com/photos/michaelturton/?details=1


swoosh
December 24, 2013 at 19:35
Comparing Chinese invasion on Taiwan with USinvasion on Afghanistan and Iraq is likecomparing apple and orange. The Chinese in Mainland and The Taiwanese share thesame culture, languages and even surnames. The Americans and the Afghans andIraqis share nothing. Sure there will be opposition if, and that is a big IF, China invade and conquer Taiwan, but it will be much easier for China to pacify them, unlike the USeffort to pacify the Afghans or Iraqis.

拿中国入侵台湾与美国入侵阿富汗和伊拉克作比较，就像是拿一个苹果与橘子做比较一样。内地的中国人与台湾人同宗同源，有着相同的语言及文化。而美国人与阿富汗人和伊拉克人完全是两码事。中国如果攻打台湾，这里有且必然有反抗，但是中国安抚台湾，比起美国安抚阿富汗或伊拉克而言，那将容易得多。

greg
December 25, 2013 at 08:49
Do they share the same heart?

他们还共享心脏么？

Lei
December 24, 2013 at 15:56
One other point is that if China could effectively invade Taiwan, that might actually achieve the oppositeof what the author is suggesting and result in MORE countries bandwagoning to China.If China could occupy Taiwan and successfully deter the US, orkeep it from even entering the conflict, that would signal a massive collapsein the credibility of USpower. Many countries would simply assume it is safer to be on China’s goodside than bad side, especially if the relationship is already pretty good ortolerable. It would also have the effect of militarizing Japan, which wouldn’t necessarily be seenpositively by every country in the region and may further drive some countriestoward’s China’s sphere ofinfluence, even as other country’s shift towards what may become Japan’sgrowing sphere of influence. The simple assumption that every country wouldcollaborate against China isa naive one borne out of an ignorance of how contentious the relationships ofEast Asian countries can be not including China.

另一个问题是，如果中国能有效地入侵台湾，就像作者暗示的那样，这实际上可能取得相反的效果，导致更多国家抱团制衡中国。但如果中国能占领台湾，且击退美国，或者说，根本将美国置之门外，那这就意味着美国力量的崩溃。很多国家就会认为，与中国保持一致更加有利于自身安全，特别是在本身与中国的关系已经很不错或者可以忍受的情况下。这对日本军事化一样有影响，当然对于本区域的每个国家来说，这种影响并非都是积极的。但可能使得中国深化对一些国家的影响，甚至可能使得一些国家并入日本的势力范围。简单认为各国将抱团制衡中国的人真是太天真了，这证明其对于不包括中国的具有争议性的东亚各国之间的关系是有多么的无知。

RJS
December 24, 2013 at 15:50
The author obviously have not spent a lotof time in Taiwan…
Taiwanese are adamantly opposed to beingincorporated into a non-Democratic China. These feelings would onlyharden in the aftermath of the invasion.
“Thus, even ifit quickly defeated Taiwan’s formal military forces, the PLA would continue tohave to contend with the remnants of resistance for years to come.”
This is a very naive statement and not atall based on reality. Most Taiwanese are complete cowards when it comes toresistance and the personal sacrifice that is required of resistance fighters.The Muslims that the United Stateshad to deal with in its wars in the Middle East had religious fanaticism todeal with – no such fanaticism exists in Taiwan today. Moreover, over 50% ofthe population, when push comes to shove, will admit to being Chinese.
A PLA takeover and suppression campaignwill not result in mass riots, resistance fighters, etc. The Taiwanese aresimply too cowardly to do this…

这作者明显没花什么时间研究台湾问题、、、、
“台湾坚决反对被纳入一个非民主的中国。这些感觉，在被入侵后，只会变得愈发强烈。
因此，即便她能迅速击败台湾的正规军事力量，中国人民解放军也将未来几年持续面对残余抵抗力量。”
这真是中幼稚的说法，且完全脱离现实。大多数的台湾人在遇到阻力或者需要自我牺牲时，都非常懦弱。美国在中东战争中不得不对付的穆斯林分子，都有着强烈的宗教狂热—但如今，在台湾，已经没有信仰了。而且，超过50%的台湾人，在事态变得严重时，会承认自己是中国人。
解放军的接管和镇压活动，才不会导致大规模骚乱和抵抗运动等等。台湾人太懦弱，不会这样做的…


...
December 25, 2013 at 01:14
I’d recommend you do some reading on theresistance that the KMT faced in Taiwan, and the many deaths thatresulted from violent resistance to their rule.
It’s a dangerous thing to assume that apeople, any people, are weak and can be easily cowed. All empires assume this,and it frequently doesn’t work out their way.

我建议你去读一些有关于国民党在台湾面对的反抗运动的资料，以及那时候由于暴力抵抗国民党统治而造成的死亡人数。假设一个人或任何人是软弱的，懦弱的，这是件危险的事情。所有的帝国主义都这么假设，但常常做出了错误的估计。

RJS
December 26, 2013 at 09:12
The resistance the KMT during the take overin 1949 was short lived, and today about 50% of benshenren (go look up thatterm) actively support the KMT. This is a result of 70 years of brainwashinginto thinking they are, after all, “Chinese.”
You want proof that this is a weakpopulation? Here it is…90% of Taiwanese parents actively look for ways fortheir sons to dodge military service and the majority of Taiwanese ridiculethose who join the “martial” professions, i.e. military and police. This isbecause some idiot named Confucius said a good piece of iron isn’t use to makea nail just as a good man isn’t used to make a soldier…One recruit dies incompulsory military service and everyone freaks out.
You want further proof that this populationcan be easily cowed? Just look at the hard time the military is having tryingto develop into an all volunteer force. It can’t. A population that is not evenwilling to sacrifice in peacetime is less likely to do anything in wartime whentheir lives are on the line.
There is no sense of patriotism and nosense of nationalism on this island. Many say they want an independent Taiwan, very,very, very few are willing to sacrifice to achieve it. Most just “want” theAmericans to come and protect them; the remainder cling on to this illusionthat the Chinese will be democratic and it will be a peaceful union.
Here is what will happen in a PLA invasion.Initially, there will be a short resistance movement after the “formal”military forces have been rendered combat ineffective. Then the PLA/CCP willestablish rewards, much like the Japanese did, for those who turn in theirneighbors. Unlike Japan,who are clearly of a different ethnic group, the majority of Taiwanese willrationalise and fall back on their 70-years of KMT indoctrination that they areChinese, and start to turn in their neighbors who are part of the resistance as“troublemakers”, especially if there is monetary or personal gain involved. TheChinese aren’t stupid…the Taiwanese are cowardly and greedy – this resistancewill last about a day…

国民党在1949年遭遇的抵抗是短暂的，并且今天超过50%的本省人（自己去找这个词）非常支持国民党。这是70年洗脑的结果，终究是“中国人”。
你想要关于台湾人懦弱的证据？这里有。。。90%的台湾家长积极地给孩子寻找逃避兵役的方法，且大多数台湾人都嘲笑那些加入了“军事”行业的人，比如军人和警察。这位因为一个叫做孔子的白痴说过，好铁不打钉，好男不当兵。。。一个新兵在义务兵役制下死掉，全民发飙。
你想要更多关于台湾人懦弱的证据？看看军队试图发展为全义务制的所面临的艰难局面。一个民族在和平时期都不愿意做出牺牲，那么在战时，更不可能做出什么事情来。
在这个岛上，没有爱国主义，也没有民族主义。很多人说他们想要台湾独立，但少之又少的人愿意为此做出牺牲。大部分人只是“想要”美国人来保护他们；剩下的则在幻想，中国是民主的，这是个民主的联盟。
当解放军攻台，这将会发生什么？最初，当正规军队被轻易击溃时，会有短暂的抵抗运动。然后中共/解放军会设立奖励制度，就像当初日本人那样，奖励那些告发邻居的人。不像日本，毕竟是不同的种族，大部分的台湾人会依靠国民党70年的教化，合理地认为自己是中国人，然后将进行抵抗运动的他们的邻居，作为“麻烦制造者”检举出来，特别还当涉及到金钱或者利益的时候，更是理所当然。中国人可不笨。。。台湾人却又贪婪又懦弱——这抵抗运动估计也就持续一天左右。。。

Lei
December 24, 2013 at 15:38
I found this article rather unconvincing.The author’s first rationale didn’t stop the US from invading Iraq, and theimpact of that will fade over time if the country has enough influence (whichChina will be accruing over time, not with the OECDs but with the developingcountries which aren’t as bothered by these things and will have increasingeconomic power). It will certainly unsettle China’s neighbors, but given thatthe Taiwan issue is further away from the fear of an imperialist China than saythe China Sea Island disputes, it’s unlikely they would let Taiwan permanentlyimpact their relationships (except Japan, who has an immense interest in havingTaiwan as a buffer between it and China). Furthermore, the assumption thatevery country would begin to bandwagon against China is simplistic and ignores thegreater complexity of the relationships between the countries in the region.Some countries in East Asia would certainly find itself in greater oppositionto and consternation with Chinaif China occupied Taiwan,but many won’t.
His second reason is better, but is noguarantee. For one, not every one in Taiwan would actively resist aChinese implemented rule. Many would simply go along with it. Of course,resistance would probably still be very robust with many sympathizers, andviolence would be frequent, but there is a way to manage this type of violencein society over the long term, even if it provides an element of instability.These include migration and gradual assimilation of the occupied population,control of education and propaganda, and harsh security measures (all of which Taiwan has experienced once when Chiang Kai-Shekmoved the ROC to Taiwan),especially since there is no ethnic divide, unlike the other separatist ethnicconflicts in the PRIC. Third, the Han population in Mainland China has a MUCH greater tolerance for that kindof unstable violence than the author presumes, especially if this was framed asforeign influenced separatists trying to tear China apart. The sentiment towardsa unified Chinaby the PRC’s population should not be underestimated.

我发现这篇文章完全不能让人信服。作者的第一个理由没有能够阻止美国入侵伊拉克，并且如果这个国家有着足够的影响力，这种入侵带来的影响会随着时间而消逝（中国将随着时间不断取得发展，不是随着经合组织，而是随着不受这些事情影响的发展中国家，且将提升自己的经济力量）。（收回台湾）也必将让中国的邻国感到不安，但考虑到台湾问题比起中国南海岛屿争端，更不能用来证明中国帝国主义，所以也不太可能让台湾问题一直影响他们之间的关系（除了日本，因为日本在利用台湾作为自身与中国之间的缓冲带这个问题上，有着核心利益）。此外，假设各国抱团反制中国的想法，真是太过于简单，也忽视了该区域各国之间更为错综复杂的关系。如果中国占领台湾，东亚一些国家必然会反对且恐惧，但是还有很多国家却不会。
他的第二个理由更好，但并非一定会发生。第一，台湾并非人人抵制中国的统治。很多人会接受这一情况。当然，因为一些支持（独立）者，抵抗运动也会有的，暴力运动也会时有发生，但是，从长远来看，有一种办法能管理好这种暴力行动，即便这给社会提供了不稳定的因素。这些办法包括对占领区人口的迁移和同化，以及教育和宣传管制，还有严格的安全措施(所有这些，在蒋介石将中华民国搬到台湾时，台湾都经历过)，特别是在没有民族分裂的情况下，更容易实现，不像在中国极地研究中，还有民族冲突。第三，中国内地的汉族，比起作者假设的那样，对这种不稳定的暴力行为有着更大的容忍性，特别是如果这一切是由外来势力想分裂中国而造成的。中华人民共和国民众对于一个统一的中国的向往，不应该被低估。

meh
December 24, 2013 at 10:30
Slowly fewer Taiwanese are opposed to China as itincreases its economical influence on the island. That is the way of battle Chinachose years ago and has been pursuing all the time.

随着中国对台湾岛经济影响力的增强，台湾人对中国的反对会慢慢减少。这是中国多年前就选择，并一直在推行的战斗方式。

ma
December 24, 2013 at 19:18
Proof?

证据？

BeWay
December 26, 2013 at 04:49
The good-for-nothing DPP party that shoutedloudly for independence is losing popular votes like nobody business. Isn’tthis not proven?

高声疾呼台湾独立的一无是处的民进党失去了选民。这能够证明么？

aether
December 24, 2013 at 09:39
Chinese are not knowing for naval or aircompetence; but they are known for using massive population and economic meansto absorb their neighbors, as witnessed in formerly non-Chinese Manchuria,nan-viet, Dali now called Northeast, Canton, and Yunnan

中国的海空军力量不为人所知；但他们使用大规模人口和经济吸引邻居的手段可是闻名天下的，证据就是之前被称为不属于中国的满洲，安南，大理，现在被人称为东北、广东和云南。

starone
December 24, 2013 at 09:35
It is obvious that China will not attack Taiwan as long as the status quostands. There is no reason why they would want to do that to the benefit ofothers especially to those that would like to paint a grim picture that theywill do it to cause a certain degree of contention.

只要维持现状，中国摆明了不会攻打台湾。没有理由这样做，让人家的好处，特别是让那些想要抹黑中国的人，这会在一定程度上造成一个焦点。

Ryokai
December 25, 2013 at 12:45
Taiwanese won’t show any willingness toabsorbed by PRC as long as the economic and social disparity between the twosociety exists. This means that PRC has to demonstrate that it is at least asadvanced and liberal as Taiwanis. Given PRC’s record of corruption, human rights abuse and pollution thisdemonstration will be long in coming.

只要两个社会中，存在这经济和社会差异，台湾人不会愿意并入中华人民共和国。这意味着中国必须证明它至少是和台湾一样先进和自由的。鉴于中国的腐败记录、人权记录和污染，这个展示，在一段时间的未来才能出现。

Tiu Nia Sing
December 24, 2013 at 09:17
The west, mainly the US, is trying to drive a wedge between China and Taiwan. MIC doctrine, selling armsto make dineros.
The notion of one country two systems toembrace Hong Kong back into the fold of China, can be expanded by the lateparamount leader Deng Xiaopoing and he categorically said that we can have onecountry many systems before he passed away i.e. Taiwancan keep its arm forces and just admit outwardly that Taiwan is part of Chinaand may be one day the party from Taiwancan be part of the electoral system in which the whole of China can take part.
The Chinese is only interested principallyin developing the economies of both sides and political wrangling is not theway of achieving it. and both sides know that Chinahas no appetite to attack Taiwan,the two entities are divided by a common culture, common language, and a commonpeople, and a common political system will follow no matter how long it takes

西方，主要是美国，试图离间中国和台湾。军事主义者好兜售武器赚钱。
一国两制使得香港回归中国，这个概念可以追溯至中国最高领导人邓小平，他去世之前，直截了当的指出，一个国家的前提下，可以有多个系统。例如台湾能保留自己的武装且只要表面上承认，台湾是属于中国的一部分。并且某天，可能台湾的政党也参与全中国的选举。
中国感兴趣的只是发展双方的经济，而不是实现它的政治角力的方式。且双方都知道中国没有想法攻打台湾，这两个实体有着共同的文化，共同的语言以及共同的民族，不管需要多久时间，两者都将遵循一个共同的政治体系。

Oro Invictus
December 24, 2013 at 08:18
Not too much to say here; I’ve held asimilar position for some time now, and anyone who feels so inclined can searchfor my past thoughts on the matter.
I will, however, say this: Taiwan is not the US’ to give, nor is it the PRC’s totake. It need not become independent nor need it be subsumed; its path is,singularly, the choice of the Taiwanese. Those who seek to infringe upon Taiwaneseself-determination are simply declaring to the world they care not about thepeople, do not believe them to be equals to themselves.

在这儿不用说太多；我一直以来就有着差不多的观念，感兴趣的人可以去搜我之前的留言。
我想在这儿说的是：台湾不是美国给，也不是中国拿的问题。它不需要独立也不需要被并入；它的路，来自于台湾人民的选择。
那些自顾自做决定，试图侵犯台湾的人，只是在向世界宣告，他们不关心人民，也不认为这里的人和他们是一样平等的。

...
December 25, 2013 at 01:20
“Taiwan is notthe US’ to give, nor is it the PRC’s to take.”
That sentence doesn’t get mentioned inthese debates for some reason, when it should be one and only argumentpresent.. I agree completely, it is up to Taiwan to choose if they want to bea sovereign state or a province of the PRC.
Up to now, and in the forseeable future (inmy opinion), they will choose to be sovereign.

“台湾不是美国给，也不是中国拿的问题。”
这句话，当它作为唯一的论据存在时，基于一些原因，在这些争辩中，不会被提及。。。我完全同意，这一切取决于台湾的选择，他们是想成为一个主权国家，还是想成为中华人民共和国的一个省。
到目前为止，以及可预见的将来（我的观点中），他们将选择成为一个主权国家。