经济学人：做“小英格兰”还是做“大不列颠”？

做“小英格兰”还是做“大不列颠”？
Little England or Great Britain?

译文来源:
原文地址：http://www.economist.com/news/le ... bracing-openness-go
正文翻译:
原创翻译：龙腾
论坛地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-248997-1-1.htmlBritain

英国

Little England or Great Britain?

做“小英格兰”还是做“大不列颠”？

The country faces a choice betweencomfortable isolation and bracing openness. Go for openness

英国眼前两条路：要么偏安一隅，要么奋起开放。选哪条？当然是选开放了。

Nov 9th 2013 |Fromthe print edition


ASKED to namethe European country with the most turbulent future, many would pick Greece orItaly, both struggling with economic collapse. A few might finger France, whichhas yet to come to terms with the failure of its statist model. Hardly anybodywould plump for Britain, which has muddled through the crisis moderately well.

若要被问起欧洲哪国前途最动荡，估计许多人都会选希腊或是意大利，这两国还在经济崩溃的边缘挣扎着呢。也有些人可能会选法国，明明集权模式已然失败，可它还不认栽。不过估计没啥人会选英国，这场危机里英国还算是混得中规中矩。

Yet Britain’splace in the world is less certain than it has been for decades. In May 2014its voters are likely to send to the European Parliament a posse from the UKIndependence Party, which loathes Brussels. Then, in September, Scotland willvote on independence. In 2015 there will be a general election. And by the endof 2017—possibly earlier—there is due to be a referendum on Britain’smembership of the European Union.

数十年来，英国的国际定位一直非常明确，不过近来却是有点模糊了。2014年5月，反对欧盟的英国独立党很可能会凑上一队人马进军欧洲议会。接着等到9月，苏格兰将就是否独立举行公投。2015年会举行大选。到2017年年末——还可能更早些——英国将就欧盟去留问题举行公投。

Britain couldemerge from all this smaller, more inward-looking and with less clout in theworld (and, possibly, with its politics fractured). Or it could become moreefficient, surer of its identity and its place in Europe and moreoutward-looking. Call them the Little England and Great Britain scenarios.

英国要么就在领土缩水、闭关自守、无足轻重（说不定还要加上政治分崩离析这条）中苟延残喘下去；要么就更能干点儿，认同自己在欧洲的身份地位，拿出点国际眼光来。请将此两种前景分别称为“小英格兰”与“大不列颠”。

The incredible shrinking nation

这个国家的“缩水”远超你想象

In many waysBritain has a lot going for it right now. Whereas the euro zone’s economy isstagnant, Britain is emerging strongly from its slump. The government has usedthe crisis to trim the state. Continental Europeans are coming round to the long-heldBritish view that the EU should be smaller, less bureaucratic and lighter onbusiness. There is even talk of deepening the single market in services, a hugeboon for Britain.

当前各方各面，英国都举足轻重。虽然欧元区经济停滞不前，但英国却从中脱颖而出。利用这次危机，英国政府精简了政府。欧洲大陆也开始转而认同英国长期坚持的观点，那就是欧盟机构要小些，作风要务实些，对企业要宽松些。现在甚至还有人在谈深化服务业单一市场进程，要果真能如此，英国还不乐开了花？

London continuesto suck in talent, capital and business. Per person, Britain attracts nearlytwice as much foreign direct investment as the rich-country average. That isbecause of the country’s history of openness to outsiders—a tradition that hasmostly survived the economic crisis. Although the British are hostile to immigration,they excel at turning new arrivals into productive, integrated members ofsociety. Britain is one of only two EU countries where fewer immigrants dropout of school than natives. (Its most worrying neighbourhoods are white,British and poor.)

人才、资本、贸易依然源源不断地涌入伦敦。英国人均吸引境外直接投资量是发达国家均值的两倍。原因无他，英国历史上一直对外开放，这一传统在这场经济危机后依然未变。英国人虽然反对移民，但是他们在归化移民，使其成为对社会有用的一份子方面确实很有一手。英国还是欧盟国家里移民辍学率低于本土人的唯一两个国家之一。（最不让人省心可不是移民聚居地，而是白人、本土人以及穷人聚居地。）

But this couldall fall apart in the next few years. The most straightforward way Britaincould shrivel is through Scotland voting to leave the United Kingdom nextSeptember. At a stroke, the kingdom would become one-third smaller. Itsinfluence in the world would be greatly reduced. A country that cannot holditself together is scarcely in a position to lecture others on how to managetheir affairs.

不过几年之后这些景象指不定就要盛筵难再了。要让英国衰微，方法再直接不过，明年九月份苏格兰投票独立成功即可。如此一来，王国领土一下子就少了1/3，而英国的国际影响力自然也就会大不如前。一个领土完整尚且不能自保的国家还要对别人内政指手画脚，这脸上可真挂不住。

The referendumon the EU was promised last year by the prime minister, David Cameron, in avain attempt to shut up the Little Englanders in the Tory party and ward offUKIP; Ed Miliband, Labour’s leader, may well follow suit. If Britain left theEU, it would lose its power to shape the bloc that takes half its exports. And,since Britain has in the past used that power for good, pushing the EU in anopen, expansive, free-trading direction, its loss would be Europe’s too. To addto the carnage, the plebiscite could break up the Conservative Party—especiallyif Mr Cameron fails to get re-elected in 2015.

去年，首相大卫·卡梅伦承诺将就是否离开欧盟举行公投，这么做实在是无奈之举，在党内没能封住某些个“小英派”的嘴，在党外又没能抵挡住英国独立党（UKIP）的攻势。工党领袖埃德·米利班德也随声附和。如果当真离开欧盟，英国自然就丧失了制定欧盟规则的权利，这个集团可是在英国出口贸易里占了一半的份儿。由于英国过去一直善用这项权利，推动欧盟朝着开放、扩张和贸易自由方向发展，因此一旦英国受损，欧盟也逃不了干系。更可怕的是，这项公投有可能会瓦解保守党，卡梅伦要是2015年没能连任的话这种可能性尤为之大。

Britain could also become more isolatedand insular simply by persisting with some unwise policies. As our specialreport this week shows, the government’s attempts to bear downon immigrants and visitors are harming the economy. Students, particularly fromIndia, are heading to more welcoming (and sunnier) countries. Firms find it toohard to bring in even skilled workers, crimping the country’s ability toexport. Mr Cameron has made some concessions: it is now a bit easier to get aBritish visa in China, and he backed down on a mad plan to demand large bondsfrom visitors from six emerging markets, lest they abscond. But Britain’sattitude to immigration is all wrong. It erects barriers by default and lowersthem only when the disastrous consequences become obvious.

另外，就因为奉行了那么几项愚蠢的政策，英国说不定会愈加闭关锁国。正如本周我们的特别报道所述，政府限制移民和游客入境正在让经济蒙受损失。留学生们，尤其是印度留学生，现在都往更友好的国家跑（人家天气也比英国好）。企业招不到熟练工，国家出口能力下滑。卡梅伦如今倒也做出了些让步：中国人现在拿英国签证就容易点儿了，他也断了向六大兴新市场的游客征收大笔保证金以防其携款潜逃入境的疯狂念头。但是英国对移民的态度还是大错特错。任凭移民壁垒一高再高，大难不来，壁垒不降。

No Europe, no Scotland, split party—niceone, Dave

不要欧盟，不要苏格兰，那政党分裂怎么样？还是不要了吧····大卫（译注：这句没读懂，根据下文推测）

The shrinking ofBritain is not preordained. In a more optimistic scenario, Britain stickstogether and stays in Europe, where it fights for competitiveness and againstunnecessary red tape. British pressure gradually cracks open services markets,both in the EU and elsewhere, creating a bonanza for the country’s lawyers andaccountants. Britain becomes more tolerant of immigration, if not in love withit. It even stops bashing its biggest export industry, financial services.

英国也不是注定就要衰败。前景更乐观点话，英国会继续团结统一，也仍将是欧盟一员，在欧盟的舞台上，英国可以大显身手，增强自身竞争力，破除欧盟的繁文缛节。在英国的施压下，无论是欧盟还是其他什么地方，服务业市场都正逐渐从封闭中破茧而出，英国的律师和会计们又可以大捞一笔了。对移民，英国的态度就算谈不上喜爱也越加包容。而对自己最大的出口行业——金融业，英国也停止了疯狂的自戕。

The differencebetween the Little England and Great Britain scenarios is leadership. MrCameron should start by changing the thing over which he has most control:immigration policy. A more liberal regime would boost business, help balancethe nation’s books and shrink the state, relative to the size of the economy.Immigrants, especially from eastern Europe, produce far more than they consumein public resources. Both Mr Cameron and Mr Miliband know this, but they arecowed by widespread hostility to the influx.

“小英格兰”和“大不列颠”，二者的区别就在于政府领导力。卡梅伦应先从自己掌握得最牢靠的移民政策开始，着手改变。政府放宽限制有助于促进贸易，平衡国家开支，精简政府使其与经济规模相称。移民（尤其是东欧的移民）的产出远高于他们对公共资源的消耗，这点卡梅伦和米利班德两人其实心知肚明，只不过是被民众对外来族群涌入的反对声潮吓得有些畏手畏脚罢了。

Europe isanother issue where they should try to lead public opinion, not cravenly followit. Mr Miliband’s policy is unknown. Mr Cameron has lurched alarmingly,sometimes saying Britain is committed to reforming the EU for the good of all,at other times threatening to leave if unspecified demands are not met. Thefirst course is the astute one—both less likely to lead to a calamitous Britishexit and more likely to succeed in making the union more liberal.

在欧盟去留问题上，两人也要努力引导公共舆论，不可亦步亦趋。米利班德的立场或未可知，卡梅伦倒是已经有所动摇，值得警觉，一会儿说英国致力于改革欧盟，利泽各方；一会儿又说某些不明所以的要求未能得到满足，以退相挟。明智的话还是按第一种说法去做吧，这样英国既不至于退出欧盟，产生灾难性的后果，又可让欧盟自由化更易于实现。

On Scotland, MrCameron and Mr Miliband are on the side of Great Britain. But it is a decisionfor Scots. Although a Caledonian state could more or less pay its way to beginwith, assuming that it was able to hold on to most of the North Sea oil- andgas-fields, that resource is drying up. An independent Scotland would be too smallto absorb shocks, whether to oil prices or to its banks. And the separatistscannot say how the country could run its affairs while keeping the pound. Fortheir own sakes, Scottish voters should reject their political snake-oil.

在苏格兰这个问题上，卡梅伦和米利班德都是“大英派”，但决定权落在苏格兰人手中。要是苏格兰政府能掌控住北海大部分油气田（这些油气田正在枯竭），那么独立之初或多或少还是有点甜头可尝的，但是由于苏格兰太小，很难承受油价变动的冲击，内部银行抗风险能力也很羸弱。另外，既然还用英镑，那内政又从何谈起？这个问题也让分裂主义者哑口无言。就算为自身利益计，苏格兰选民也不会相信他们的政治嘴炮。

Britain once ranthe world. Since the collapse of its empire, it has occasionally wanted to curlup and hide. It can now do neither of those things. Its brightest future is asan open, liberal, trading nation, engaged with the world. Politicians know thatand sometimes say it: now they must fight for it, too.

英国曾一度统治全球。自王朝覆灭以来，偶也会想不如就这么得过且过、退隐江湖算了。不过现在想这么做已经晚了。英国的光辉未来，是作为一个开放自由的贸易强国，参与全球事务。政治家心中清楚，有时也会挂在嘴边，但是现在，他们也得拿出点行动出来了。

Correction: we mixed up our Latin, using"Hibernia" to refer to Scotland. The correct word is of course"Caledonia". Apologies for the mistake.

更正：我们在用拉丁语时出现混淆，把“Hibernia”用来指称苏格兰了。正确的用词当然是“Caledonia”。在此深感抱歉做“小英格兰”还是做“大不列颠”？
Little England or Great Britain?

译文来源:
原文地址：http://www.economist.com/news/le ... bracing-openness-go
正文翻译:
原创翻译：龙腾
论坛地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-248997-1-1.htmlBritain

英国

Little England or Great Britain?

做“小英格兰”还是做“大不列颠”？

The country faces a choice betweencomfortable isolation and bracing openness. Go for openness

英国眼前两条路：要么偏安一隅，要么奋起开放。选哪条？当然是选开放了。

Nov 9th 2013 |Fromthe print edition


ASKED to namethe European country with the most turbulent future, many would pick Greece orItaly, both struggling with economic collapse. A few might finger France, whichhas yet to come to terms with the failure of its statist model. Hardly anybodywould plump for Britain, which has muddled through the crisis moderately well.

若要被问起欧洲哪国前途最动荡，估计许多人都会选希腊或是意大利，这两国还在经济崩溃的边缘挣扎着呢。也有些人可能会选法国，明明集权模式已然失败，可它还不认栽。不过估计没啥人会选英国，这场危机里英国还算是混得中规中矩。

Yet Britain’splace in the world is less certain than it has been for decades. In May 2014its voters are likely to send to the European Parliament a posse from the UKIndependence Party, which loathes Brussels. Then, in September, Scotland willvote on independence. In 2015 there will be a general election. And by the endof 2017—possibly earlier—there is due to be a referendum on Britain’smembership of the European Union.

数十年来，英国的国际定位一直非常明确，不过近来却是有点模糊了。2014年5月，反对欧盟的英国独立党很可能会凑上一队人马进军欧洲议会。接着等到9月，苏格兰将就是否独立举行公投。2015年会举行大选。到2017年年末——还可能更早些——英国将就欧盟去留问题举行公投。

Britain couldemerge from all this smaller, more inward-looking and with less clout in theworld (and, possibly, with its politics fractured). Or it could become moreefficient, surer of its identity and its place in Europe and moreoutward-looking. Call them the Little England and Great Britain scenarios.

英国要么就在领土缩水、闭关自守、无足轻重（说不定还要加上政治分崩离析这条）中苟延残喘下去；要么就更能干点儿，认同自己在欧洲的身份地位，拿出点国际眼光来。请将此两种前景分别称为“小英格兰”与“大不列颠”。

The incredible shrinking nation

这个国家的“缩水”远超你想象

In many waysBritain has a lot going for it right now. Whereas the euro zone’s economy isstagnant, Britain is emerging strongly from its slump. The government has usedthe crisis to trim the state. Continental Europeans are coming round to the long-heldBritish view that the EU should be smaller, less bureaucratic and lighter onbusiness. There is even talk of deepening the single market in services, a hugeboon for Britain.

当前各方各面，英国都举足轻重。虽然欧元区经济停滞不前，但英国却从中脱颖而出。利用这次危机，英国政府精简了政府。欧洲大陆也开始转而认同英国长期坚持的观点，那就是欧盟机构要小些，作风要务实些，对企业要宽松些。现在甚至还有人在谈深化服务业单一市场进程，要果真能如此，英国还不乐开了花？

London continuesto suck in talent, capital and business. Per person, Britain attracts nearlytwice as much foreign direct investment as the rich-country average. That isbecause of the country’s history of openness to outsiders—a tradition that hasmostly survived the economic crisis. Although the British are hostile to immigration,they excel at turning new arrivals into productive, integrated members ofsociety. Britain is one of only two EU countries where fewer immigrants dropout of school than natives. (Its most worrying neighbourhoods are white,British and poor.)

人才、资本、贸易依然源源不断地涌入伦敦。英国人均吸引境外直接投资量是发达国家均值的两倍。原因无他，英国历史上一直对外开放，这一传统在这场经济危机后依然未变。英国人虽然反对移民，但是他们在归化移民，使其成为对社会有用的一份子方面确实很有一手。英国还是欧盟国家里移民辍学率低于本土人的唯一两个国家之一。（最不让人省心可不是移民聚居地，而是白人、本土人以及穷人聚居地。）

But this couldall fall apart in the next few years. The most straightforward way Britaincould shrivel is through Scotland voting to leave the United Kingdom nextSeptember. At a stroke, the kingdom would become one-third smaller. Itsinfluence in the world would be greatly reduced. A country that cannot holditself together is scarcely in a position to lecture others on how to managetheir affairs.

不过几年之后这些景象指不定就要盛筵难再了。要让英国衰微，方法再直接不过，明年九月份苏格兰投票独立成功即可。如此一来，王国领土一下子就少了1/3，而英国的国际影响力自然也就会大不如前。一个领土完整尚且不能自保的国家还要对别人内政指手画脚，这脸上可真挂不住。

The referendumon the EU was promised last year by the prime minister, David Cameron, in avain attempt to shut up the Little Englanders in the Tory party and ward offUKIP; Ed Miliband, Labour’s leader, may well follow suit. If Britain left theEU, it would lose its power to shape the bloc that takes half its exports. And,since Britain has in the past used that power for good, pushing the EU in anopen, expansive, free-trading direction, its loss would be Europe’s too. To addto the carnage, the plebiscite could break up the Conservative Party—especiallyif Mr Cameron fails to get re-elected in 2015.

去年，首相大卫·卡梅伦承诺将就是否离开欧盟举行公投，这么做实在是无奈之举，在党内没能封住某些个“小英派”的嘴，在党外又没能抵挡住英国独立党（UKIP）的攻势。工党领袖埃德·米利班德也随声附和。如果当真离开欧盟，英国自然就丧失了制定欧盟规则的权利，这个集团可是在英国出口贸易里占了一半的份儿。由于英国过去一直善用这项权利，推动欧盟朝着开放、扩张和贸易自由方向发展，因此一旦英国受损，欧盟也逃不了干系。更可怕的是，这项公投有可能会瓦解保守党，卡梅伦要是2015年没能连任的话这种可能性尤为之大。

Britain could also become more isolatedand insular simply by persisting with some unwise policies. As our specialreport this week shows, the government’s attempts to bear downon immigrants and visitors are harming the economy. Students, particularly fromIndia, are heading to more welcoming (and sunnier) countries. Firms find it toohard to bring in even skilled workers, crimping the country’s ability toexport. Mr Cameron has made some concessions: it is now a bit easier to get aBritish visa in China, and he backed down on a mad plan to demand large bondsfrom visitors from six emerging markets, lest they abscond. But Britain’sattitude to immigration is all wrong. It erects barriers by default and lowersthem only when the disastrous consequences become obvious.

另外，就因为奉行了那么几项愚蠢的政策，英国说不定会愈加闭关锁国。正如本周我们的特别报道所述，政府限制移民和游客入境正在让经济蒙受损失。留学生们，尤其是印度留学生，现在都往更友好的国家跑（人家天气也比英国好）。企业招不到熟练工，国家出口能力下滑。卡梅伦如今倒也做出了些让步：中国人现在拿英国签证就容易点儿了，他也断了向六大兴新市场的游客征收大笔保证金以防其携款潜逃入境的疯狂念头。但是英国对移民的态度还是大错特错。任凭移民壁垒一高再高，大难不来，壁垒不降。

No Europe, no Scotland, split party—niceone, Dave

不要欧盟，不要苏格兰，那政党分裂怎么样？还是不要了吧····大卫（译注：这句没读懂，根据下文推测）

The shrinking ofBritain is not preordained. In a more optimistic scenario, Britain stickstogether and stays in Europe, where it fights for competitiveness and againstunnecessary red tape. British pressure gradually cracks open services markets,both in the EU and elsewhere, creating a bonanza for the country’s lawyers andaccountants. Britain becomes more tolerant of immigration, if not in love withit. It even stops bashing its biggest export industry, financial services.

英国也不是注定就要衰败。前景更乐观点话，英国会继续团结统一，也仍将是欧盟一员，在欧盟的舞台上，英国可以大显身手，增强自身竞争力，破除欧盟的繁文缛节。在英国的施压下，无论是欧盟还是其他什么地方，服务业市场都正逐渐从封闭中破茧而出，英国的律师和会计们又可以大捞一笔了。对移民，英国的态度就算谈不上喜爱也越加包容。而对自己最大的出口行业——金融业，英国也停止了疯狂的自戕。

The differencebetween the Little England and Great Britain scenarios is leadership. MrCameron should start by changing the thing over which he has most control:immigration policy. A more liberal regime would boost business, help balancethe nation’s books and shrink the state, relative to the size of the economy.Immigrants, especially from eastern Europe, produce far more than they consumein public resources. Both Mr Cameron and Mr Miliband know this, but they arecowed by widespread hostility to the influx.

“小英格兰”和“大不列颠”，二者的区别就在于政府领导力。卡梅伦应先从自己掌握得最牢靠的移民政策开始，着手改变。政府放宽限制有助于促进贸易，平衡国家开支，精简政府使其与经济规模相称。移民（尤其是东欧的移民）的产出远高于他们对公共资源的消耗，这点卡梅伦和米利班德两人其实心知肚明，只不过是被民众对外来族群涌入的反对声潮吓得有些畏手畏脚罢了。

Europe isanother issue where they should try to lead public opinion, not cravenly followit. Mr Miliband’s policy is unknown. Mr Cameron has lurched alarmingly,sometimes saying Britain is committed to reforming the EU for the good of all,at other times threatening to leave if unspecified demands are not met. Thefirst course is the astute one—both less likely to lead to a calamitous Britishexit and more likely to succeed in making the union more liberal.

在欧盟去留问题上，两人也要努力引导公共舆论，不可亦步亦趋。米利班德的立场或未可知，卡梅伦倒是已经有所动摇，值得警觉，一会儿说英国致力于改革欧盟，利泽各方；一会儿又说某些不明所以的要求未能得到满足，以退相挟。明智的话还是按第一种说法去做吧，这样英国既不至于退出欧盟，产生灾难性的后果，又可让欧盟自由化更易于实现。

On Scotland, MrCameron and Mr Miliband are on the side of Great Britain. But it is a decisionfor Scots. Although a Caledonian state could more or less pay its way to beginwith, assuming that it was able to hold on to most of the North Sea oil- andgas-fields, that resource is drying up. An independent Scotland would be too smallto absorb shocks, whether to oil prices or to its banks. And the separatistscannot say how the country could run its affairs while keeping the pound. Fortheir own sakes, Scottish voters should reject their political snake-oil.

在苏格兰这个问题上，卡梅伦和米利班德都是“大英派”，但决定权落在苏格兰人手中。要是苏格兰政府能掌控住北海大部分油气田（这些油气田正在枯竭），那么独立之初或多或少还是有点甜头可尝的，但是由于苏格兰太小，很难承受油价变动的冲击，内部银行抗风险能力也很羸弱。另外，既然还用英镑，那内政又从何谈起？这个问题也让分裂主义者哑口无言。就算为自身利益计，苏格兰选民也不会相信他们的政治嘴炮。

Britain once ranthe world. Since the collapse of its empire, it has occasionally wanted to curlup and hide. It can now do neither of those things. Its brightest future is asan open, liberal, trading nation, engaged with the world. Politicians know thatand sometimes say it: now they must fight for it, too.

英国曾一度统治全球。自王朝覆灭以来，偶也会想不如就这么得过且过、退隐江湖算了。不过现在想这么做已经晚了。英国的光辉未来，是作为一个开放自由的贸易强国，参与全球事务。政治家心中清楚，有时也会挂在嘴边，但是现在，他们也得拿出点行动出来了。

Correction: we mixed up our Latin, using"Hibernia" to refer to Scotland. The correct word is of course"Caledonia". Apologies for the mistake.

更正：我们在用拉丁语时出现混淆，把“Hibernia”用来指称苏格兰了。正确的用词当然是“Caledonia”。在此深感抱歉