兰德报告：中美，海上

How to Avert a Sea Catastrophe with China
如何避免与中国的海上悲剧
肥羊
Beneath the tensions over conflicting territorial claims in the East China and South China Seas,a potentially dangerous sea-power rivalry is brewing between the United States and China.Because China views U.S. naval forces in East Asian waters as menacing and a potential barrier to its access to the world's oceans, resources and markets,it is deploying anti-ship missiles,submarines,space-based sensors and cyberwar capabilities to hold those forces at bay.
在中国东海和南海领土主权冲突的紧张局势下，美国与中国之间正在酝酿着一种有潜在危险的海权竞争。因为中国认为存在于东亚海域的美国海军是一种威胁，同时也是其走向大洋、海外资源与市场的一个潜在障碍，于是部署了反舰导弹，潜艇，天基传感器以及在沿海整合这些力量的信息化作战能力。
China is also expanding its own naval forces to enforce its claims and extend its influence.Because this vital region could become unstable or fall under China's sway if U.S. sea power recedes or is allowed to become vulnerable,the United States will have to meet this challenge,one way or another.
中国也在不断扩大其海军力量以确保对其声索的势力范围的影响能力。因为如果美国海军从这一重要地区退出或者变得懦弱，它就会在中国的势力下变得不稳定甚至是爆发冲突，因此美国将不得不面对这一挑战，无论是以哪种方式。
Sea-power rivalries have a way of ending badly.In the late 1800s,Germany challenged British sea supremacy,which was seen as a threat to its overseas access and goal of becoming a world power.Despite close economic ties and mutual interest in maritime security,Britain regarded Germany's naval build-up as a strategic threat and so further expanded the Royal Navy.The ensuing "dreadnought arms race" contributed to Anglo-German antagonism that ended in World War I.For China and the United States today,the Anglo-German case is a cautionary tale.
海权竞争有过糟糕的结果案例。在19世纪晚期，德国挑战了英国的海上霸权，德国认为英国是其走向大洋和成为世界强国这一的目标的一个威胁。尽管两国有着密切的经济联系和共同感兴趣的海上安全话题，英国也认为德国海军的壮大已经形成了战略威胁并且因此对皇家海军进行了扩军。随之而来的“无畏舰军备竞赛”为英德在第一次世界大战中的对抗做足了准备。对于今天的中国和美国来说，英德两国的故事是一个前车之鉴。
While the Chinese have not yet decided to become a global sea power,they are moving from coastal defense to extending their naval reach into disputed seas.Some Chinese favor a cooperative instead of confrontational approach to maritime security – after all,95 percent of Chinese trade goes by sea.
尽管中国还没有下定决心要成为一支全球海军，其海军也正在从沿海防御中走出来，将手伸向有争议的海域。还是有些中国人希望通过合作而不是对抗的办法来处理海上的安全问题——毕竟，中国95%的贸易是通过海洋来完成的。
But increasingly influential Chinese admirals view the U.S. Navy essentially as German admirals viewed the Royal Navy:as a challenge.Because of the strike power of U.S. aircraft carriers,they are China's highest priority targets –and are increasingly hard to defend.Carriers will remain invaluable for the United States elsewhere,but their vulnerability is becoming a liability in the Western Pacific.
但是越来越多的中国海军将领倾向于用当年德国海军将领看待英国皇家海军的眼光来看待美国海军：视其为一种挑战。因为美国航空母舰所具备的打击力量，它们成为了中国最高优先级别的目标——并且抵御起来也越来越困难。航空母舰无论在哪都是美国最宝贵的资产，但它们在西太平洋海域的脆弱性正在日益成为一种负担。
In response,the U.S. Navy,in conjunction with the Air Force,has come up with a strategy called Air-Sea Battle,which would destroy Chinese capabilities before they can target U.S. ones.While this is an option worth having,using it would be escalatory in that it could require striking Chinese territory.It could also be destabilizing,in that it would be most effective if employed at the very outset of a conflict,thus increasing China's incentive to attack first, early or even preemptively.Moreover,because Air-Sea Battle relies on computer networks for command and control,it may become vulnerable to Chinese cyberattacks.
作为回应，美国海军，在美国空军的协同配合下，提出名为“空海一体战”的新理论，旨在中国具备挑战美国的能力之前将其作战能力加以摧毁。尽管这也是一个不错的选择，但实际操作起来将会使局势一发而不可收拾，因为它可能涉及到打击中国领土。这也将造成连锁反应，要将演化成一次冲突的开端的话，将会是最好的理由，进而增加中国先发制人的可能性。除此之外，因为“空海一体战”理论依赖于计算机网络进行指挥与控制，它本身也将成为中国人网络攻击的对象。
A better U.S. response is to outfox Chinese targeting by shifting to more distributed, numerous, diverse, elusive, small, long-range and hard-to-find naval strike forces,as well as drones and cyber-war.A more survivable U.S. strike posture along these lines would be neither escalatory nor destabilizing.Rather,by facing China with a far more perplexing targeting challenge,it would deter Chinese risk-taking,obviate the need for U.S. preemption and allow time for a crisis to be defused.
美国更为理想的反应是通过将海军的打击力量分散部署、少量多群

How to Avert a Sea Catastrophe with China
如何避免与中国的海上悲剧
肥羊
Beneath the tensions over conflicting territorial claims in the East China and South China Seas,a potentially dangerous sea-power rivalry is brewing between the United States and China.Because China views U.S. naval forces in East Asian waters as menacing and a potential barrier to its access to the world's oceans, resources and markets,it is deploying anti-ship missiles,submarines,space-based sensors and cyberwar capabilities to hold those forces at bay.
在中国东海和南海领土主权冲突的紧张局势下，美国与中国之间正在酝酿着一种有潜在危险的海权竞争。因为中国认为存在于东亚海域的美国海军是一种威胁，同时也是其走向大洋、海外资源与市场的一个潜在障碍，于是部署了反舰导弹，潜艇，天基传感器以及在沿海整合这些力量的信息化作战能力。
China is also expanding its own naval forces to enforce its claims and extend its influence.Because this vital region could become unstable or fall under China's sway if U.S. sea power recedes or is allowed to become vulnerable,the United States will have to meet this challenge,one way or another.
中国也在不断扩大其海军力量以确保对其声索的势力范围的影响能力。因为如果美国海军从这一重要地区退出或者变得懦弱，它就会在中国的势力下变得不稳定甚至是爆发冲突，因此美国将不得不面对这一挑战，无论是以哪种方式。
Sea-power rivalries have a way of ending badly.In the late 1800s,Germany challenged British sea supremacy,which was seen as a threat to its overseas access and goal of becoming a world power.Despite close economic ties and mutual interest in maritime security,Britain regarded Germany's naval build-up as a strategic threat and so further expanded the Royal Navy.The ensuing "dreadnought arms race" contributed to Anglo-German antagonism that ended in World War I.For China and the United States today,the Anglo-German case is a cautionary tale.
海权竞争有过糟糕的结果案例。在19世纪晚期，德国挑战了英国的海上霸权，德国认为英国是其走向大洋和成为世界强国这一的目标的一个威胁。尽管两国有着密切的经济联系和共同感兴趣的海上安全话题，英国也认为德国海军的壮大已经形成了战略威胁并且因此对皇家海军进行了扩军。随之而来的“无畏舰军备竞赛”为英德在第一次世界大战中的对抗做足了准备。对于今天的中国和美国来说，英德两国的故事是一个前车之鉴。
While the Chinese have not yet decided to become a global sea power,they are moving from coastal defense to extending their naval reach into disputed seas.Some Chinese favor a cooperative instead of confrontational approach to maritime security – after all,95 percent of Chinese trade goes by sea.
尽管中国还没有下定决心要成为一支全球海军，其海军也正在从沿海防御中走出来，将手伸向有争议的海域。还是有些中国人希望通过合作而不是对抗的办法来处理海上的安全问题——毕竟，中国95%的贸易是通过海洋来完成的。
But increasingly influential Chinese admirals view the U.S. Navy essentially as German admirals viewed the Royal Navy:as a challenge.Because of the strike power of U.S. aircraft carriers,they are China's highest priority targets –and are increasingly hard to defend.Carriers will remain invaluable for the United States elsewhere,but their vulnerability is becoming a liability in the Western Pacific.
但是越来越多的中国海军将领倾向于用当年德国海军将领看待英国皇家海军的眼光来看待美国海军：视其为一种挑战。因为美国航空母舰所具备的打击力量，它们成为了中国最高优先级别的目标——并且抵御起来也越来越困难。航空母舰无论在哪都是美国最宝贵的资产，但它们在西太平洋海域的脆弱性正在日益成为一种负担。
In response,the U.S. Navy,in conjunction with the Air Force,has come up with a strategy called Air-Sea Battle,which would destroy Chinese capabilities before they can target U.S. ones.While this is an option worth having,using it would be escalatory in that it could require striking Chinese territory.It could also be destabilizing,in that it would be most effective if employed at the very outset of a conflict,thus increasing China's incentive to attack first, early or even preemptively.Moreover,because Air-Sea Battle relies on computer networks for command and control,it may become vulnerable to Chinese cyberattacks.
作为回应，美国海军，在美国空军的协同配合下，提出名为“空海一体战”的新理论，旨在中国具备挑战美国的能力之前将其作战能力加以摧毁。尽管这也是一个不错的选择，但实际操作起来将会使局势一发而不可收拾，因为它可能涉及到打击中国领土。这也将造成连锁反应，要将演化成一次冲突的开端的话，将会是最好的理由，进而增加中国先发制人的可能性。除此之外，因为“空海一体战”理论依赖于计算机网络进行指挥与控制，它本身也将成为中国人网络攻击的对象。
A better U.S. response is to outfox Chinese targeting by shifting to more distributed, numerous, diverse, elusive, small, long-range and hard-to-find naval strike forces,as well as drones and cyber-war.A more survivable U.S. strike posture along these lines would be neither escalatory nor destabilizing.Rather,by facing China with a far more perplexing targeting challenge,it would deter Chinese risk-taking,obviate the need for U.S. preemption and allow time for a crisis to be defused.
美国更为理想的反应是通过将海军的打击力量分散部署、少量多群