这不科学---日本安倍晋三准备为全世界印钱

原文链接：http://www.ltaaa.com/wtfy/7256.html
Japan’s incoming leader Shinzo Abe has vowed to ram through full-blown reflation policies to pull his country out of slump and drive down the yen, warning Japan's central bank not to defy the will of the people.

日本的新任领导安倍晋三发誓要通过成熟的通货再膨胀政策将他的国家从大萧条中解放出来，并要压低日元汇率，他同时警告日本中央银行不要违抗人民的意志。

The profound shift in economic strategy by the world’s top creditor nation could prove a powerful tonic for the global economy, with stimulus leaking into bourses and bond markets - a variant of the "carry trade" earlier this decade but potentially on a larger scale.

世界顶级债权国的经济策略发展的显著转变将是对全球经济的一剂强心剂，将刺激股市以及债券交易市场——这是本世纪初“套利交易”的变种，不过此次规模更大。

"We think this could be the beginning of a fresh reflation cycle for the global system, combining with the US recovery to mark a turning point in the crisis," said Simon Derrick from BNY Mellon.

“我们认为这是全球新一轮膨胀的开始，同时也是美国经济复苏中的一个转折点。”纽约梅隆银行的Simon Derrick说道。

"It is tremendously important for global growth, and markets are starting to take note," said Lars Christensen from Danske Bank.

“这对全球经济增长非常重要，市场已经开始注意到这一点了。”丹麦银行的Lars Christensen说道。

Mr Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won a landslide victory on Sunday, securing a two-thirds "super-majority" in the Diet with allies that can override senate vetoes.

在周日的大选中，安倍的自民党赢得众议院三分之二的议席，取得了压倒性的胜利。

Armed with a crushing mandate, Mr Abe said he would "set a policy accord" with the Bank of Japan for a mandatory inflation target of 2pc, backed by "unlimited" monetary stimulus.

在这决定性的任期内，安倍说会和央行达成一致政策，即通过无限制的货币宽松政策刺激经济，同时要求央行将通胀目标定在2%。

"Its very rare for monetary policy to be the focus of an election. We campaigned on the need to beat deflation, and our argument has won strong support. I hope the Bank of Japan accepts the results and takes an appropriate decision," he said.

经济政策成为大选的焦点是很少见的事。我们以减少通货紧缩的必要性作为议题，而且我们的观点获得了强烈的支持。我希望日本的央行能接受这个结果，并作出正确的决定。安倍说。

The menace behind his words did not have to be spelled out. He has already threatened to change the Bank of Japan’s governing law if it refuses to comply. "An all-out attack on deflation is on its way," said Jesper Koll, Japanese equity chief at JP Morgan.

安倍话中对日本央行的的威胁还未被读出。他就已经威胁要修改央行法，如果日本央行拒绝执行这新的政策。“一轮全面的针对通货紧缩的攻击就要来了。”日本摩根的首席主管Jesper Koll,说到。

Mr Abe plans to empower an economic council to "spearhead" a shift in fiscal and monetary strategy, eviscerating the central bank’s independence.

安倍计划授权一个经济委员会做先锋部队开始在金融和财政做出改革，来削弱中央银行的独立性。

The council is to set a 3pc growth target for nominal GDP, embracing a theory pushed by a small band of "market monetarists" around the world. "This is a big deal. There has been no nominal GDP growth in Japan for 15 years," said Mr Christensen.

根据一些来自世界各地的市场货币主义者推行的理论，委员会为国内生产总值设定了通货膨胀为3%的目标。“这是一个大问题。日本的国内生产总值已经15年没有增长了，”克里斯坦森先生说。

-------------译者：熊猫nara-审核者：tvenana------------

The yen depreciated sharply to Y84.48 against the dollar on Monday, the weakest in nearly two years, as traders bet that the LDP will this time bend the Bank of Japan to its will.

星期一日元对美元汇率跌到1美元对84.48日元这一两年来的最低位，交易员认为自民党这次会迫使央行屈服。

The yen has weakened 5pc over the past month, helping to lift the Nikkei index of stocks by 10pc. The Tokyo bourse is still down 75pc since peaking in 1989. Land prices have fallen by two-thirds.

日元在过去的一个月中下跌5个百分点，受此部分影响，日经指数上升了10个百分点。东京证交所指数在冲上1989的最高点之后下跌75点。土地价格则跌掉三分之二。

The LDP plans what some have dubbed a "currency warfare fund" to weaken the yen with a blitz of foreign bond purchases, copying Switzerland’s success in capping the franc.

自民党计划采用“货币福利基金”，用购入高额外汇债券来让日元贬值，模仿瑞士抑制瑞士法郎汇率过分上涨的做法。

The effect of Switzerland’s unlimited bond purchases has been to finance most of the eurozone’s budget deficits for the last year with printed money. If Japan tries to do this - with a vastly bigger economy - it would amount a blast of quantitative easing for the world.

瑞士去年开动印钞机，无限量地购入外汇债券，用以缓解欧元区预算赤字。如果日本也打算这么做，鉴于日本是比瑞士大的多的经济体，日本的这一举措可能会引致巨大的量化宽松影响。

Japan’s curse as creditor nation with $3 trillion of net assets abroad is that safe-haven flows cause the yen to strengthen during a crisis, tightening policy in a "pro-cyclical" fashion when least wanted, this time due to the Fukushima nuclear disaster and Europe’s sovereign debt saga.

日本的作为债权国拥有3万亿美元的净海外资产，在福岛核电站危机和欧洲的主权债务危机的影响下，这一安全港导致日本在面临危机，政策紧缩，最不想日元升值时却陷入“亲周期性”日元升值的魔咒。

The effect of the strong yen has been to asphyxiate Japan’s exporters, leading to a "hollowing out" of manfacturing as companies switch plant abroad. Fuel imports to replace the closure of nuclear plants amount to an added import shock.

日元走强导致日本出口遭受严重打击，企业被迫将工厂转移海外，导致制造业的产业“空洞”。为了弥补核电站关闭的能源缺口的燃油进口又给进口带来了压力。

The combined effect has caused the country's historic trade surplus to evaporate altogether, not helped in recent months by a partial boycott of Japanese goods in China over the Diayou-Senkaku island dispute. The burden of the strong yen has finally become too great to bear.

以上各种因素的影响导致日本积累的贸易盈余蒸发，而近期中国由于钓鱼岛问题引发的对日货的制抵对此雪上加霜。日元增值变成了日本政府不能承受之重。

Opinion is split over the wisdom of ultra-loose money. Although Japan is trapped in chronic deflation, it is a stable - almost comfortable - equilibrium. The "real" value of savings is rising, in stark contrast to the West.

对于宽松的货币政策业界有支持也有反对之声。尽管日本陷入了长期通货紧缩的困境，但这是一个稳定的，几乎可称的上不错的平衡。和西方国家相反，日本储蓄的“真正”价值在增高而不是贬低。

-------------译者：wildog-审核者：chen_lt------------

Stephen Jen from SLJ Macro Partners said the Bank of Japan is right to fret that a return to inflation could set off a spike in debt costs and a flight from Japanese government bonds (JGBs).

SLJ Macro Partners的Stephen Jen表示，日本央行对于回归通胀会导致债务成本飙升和日本国债（JGB）大肆抛售的担忧是正确的。

"Any meaningful sell-off in the JGBs could trigger a serious problem in Japan’s banking system. The holdings of JGBs by Japanese banks account for 900pc of their Tier I capital," he said. Better the Devil you know.

“任何大规模的国债抛售将会导致日本银行体系的严重问题，日本各银行持有的国债占其一级资本的900%之多，” Stephen Jen说。正如那句话所言，已知的魔鬼总比未知的要好。

Professor Richard Werner from Southampton University, author of Princes of the Yen, said the Bank of Japan is to blame for the country's failure to shake off its financial crisis in the early 1990s and for two Lost Decades of perma-slump that have followed. He accused the bank of dragging its feet at every stage, forcing governments to rely on huge fiscal deficits instead.

《日元的首领》(Princes of the Yen)一书的作者，南安普敦大学的Richard Werner教授表示，日本央行应当为日本未曾摆脱90年代初的经济危机及之后持续衰退的“失去的二十年”而负责，他谴责央行在每一个阶段的拖拉使政府被迫傍上巨额的财政赤字。

This tight-money/loose fiscal mix has pushed public debt to 240pc of GDP. The country would have been better served if the bank had stopped the rot immediately by flooding the money supply to kickstart lending. "It has taken 20 years and the Fed's Ben Bernanke to show them how to do it."

货币紧缩和财政宽松的混合模式使日本公共债务占比高达GDP的240%。而如果央行在当时立即注入货币供给重启信贷市场以扭转衰弱的经济，则日本本将运作得更佳。“早在二十年前，美联储的本伯南克就告诉过他们该怎么做了。”

"Mr Abe has the right intentions but the Bank of Japan knows how to put up a fight. After watching the glacial moves in Japan for over 20 years - often in the wrong direction - I want to see the details before being sure that something really big is happening," he said.

“安倍的打算是正确的，而日本央行对于该怎样抵抗则了然于胸。二十多年来，在见证了日本大多数时候都朝着错误方向的缓慢前行之后，我想在确信即将有大事件发生之前看到更为详细的信息。”Richard Werner说。

原文链接：http://www.ltaaa.com/wtfy/7256.html
Japan’s incoming leader Shinzo Abe has vowed to ram through full-blown reflation policies to pull his country out of slump and drive down the yen, warning Japan's central bank not to defy the will of the people.

日本的新任领导安倍晋三发誓要通过成熟的通货再膨胀政策将他的国家从大萧条中解放出来，并要压低日元汇率，他同时警告日本中央银行不要违抗人民的意志。

The profound shift in economic strategy by the world’s top creditor nation could prove a powerful tonic for the global economy, with stimulus leaking into bourses and bond markets - a variant of the "carry trade" earlier this decade but potentially on a larger scale.

世界顶级债权国的经济策略发展的显著转变将是对全球经济的一剂强心剂，将刺激股市以及债券交易市场——这是本世纪初“套利交易”的变种，不过此次规模更大。

"We think this could be the beginning of a fresh reflation cycle for the global system, combining with the US recovery to mark a turning point in the crisis," said Simon Derrick from BNY Mellon.

“我们认为这是全球新一轮膨胀的开始，同时也是美国经济复苏中的一个转折点。”纽约梅隆银行的Simon Derrick说道。

"It is tremendously important for global growth, and markets are starting to take note," said Lars Christensen from Danske Bank.

“这对全球经济增长非常重要，市场已经开始注意到这一点了。”丹麦银行的Lars Christensen说道。

Mr Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) won a landslide victory on Sunday, securing a two-thirds "super-majority" in the Diet with allies that can override senate vetoes.

在周日的大选中，安倍的自民党赢得众议院三分之二的议席，取得了压倒性的胜利。

Armed with a crushing mandate, Mr Abe said he would "set a policy accord" with the Bank of Japan for a mandatory inflation target of 2pc, backed by "unlimited" monetary stimulus.

在这决定性的任期内，安倍说会和央行达成一致政策，即通过无限制的货币宽松政策刺激经济，同时要求央行将通胀目标定在2%。

"Its very rare for monetary policy to be the focus of an election. We campaigned on the need to beat deflation, and our argument has won strong support. I hope the Bank of Japan accepts the results and takes an appropriate decision," he said.

经济政策成为大选的焦点是很少见的事。我们以减少通货紧缩的必要性作为议题，而且我们的观点获得了强烈的支持。我希望日本的央行能接受这个结果，并作出正确的决定。安倍说。

The menace behind his words did not have to be spelled out. He has already threatened to change the Bank of Japan’s governing law if it refuses to comply. "An all-out attack on deflation is on its way," said Jesper Koll, Japanese equity chief at JP Morgan.

安倍话中对日本央行的的威胁还未被读出。他就已经威胁要修改央行法，如果日本央行拒绝执行这新的政策。“一轮全面的针对通货紧缩的攻击就要来了。”日本摩根的首席主管Jesper Koll,说到。

Mr Abe plans to empower an economic council to "spearhead" a shift in fiscal and monetary strategy, eviscerating the central bank’s independence.

安倍计划授权一个经济委员会做先锋部队开始在金融和财政做出改革，来削弱中央银行的独立性。

The council is to set a 3pc growth target for nominal GDP, embracing a theory pushed by a small band of "market monetarists" around the world. "This is a big deal. There has been no nominal GDP growth in Japan for 15 years," said Mr Christensen.

根据一些来自世界各地的市场货币主义者推行的理论，委员会为国内生产总值设定了通货膨胀为3%的目标。“这是一个大问题。日本的国内生产总值已经15年没有增长了，”克里斯坦森先生说。

-------------译者：熊猫nara-审核者：tvenana------------

The yen depreciated sharply to Y84.48 against the dollar on Monday, the weakest in nearly two years, as traders bet that the LDP will this time bend the Bank of Japan to its will.

星期一日元对美元汇率跌到1美元对84.48日元这一两年来的最低位，交易员认为自民党这次会迫使央行屈服。

The yen has weakened 5pc over the past month, helping to lift the Nikkei index of stocks by 10pc. The Tokyo bourse is still down 75pc since peaking in 1989. Land prices have fallen by two-thirds.

日元在过去的一个月中下跌5个百分点，受此部分影响，日经指数上升了10个百分点。东京证交所指数在冲上1989的最高点之后下跌75点。土地价格则跌掉三分之二。

The LDP plans what some have dubbed a "currency warfare fund" to weaken the yen with a blitz of foreign bond purchases, copying Switzerland’s success in capping the franc.

自民党计划采用“货币福利基金”，用购入高额外汇债券来让日元贬值，模仿瑞士抑制瑞士法郎汇率过分上涨的做法。

The effect of Switzerland’s unlimited bond purchases has been to finance most of the eurozone’s budget deficits for the last year with printed money. If Japan tries to do this - with a vastly bigger economy - it would amount a blast of quantitative easing for the world.

瑞士去年开动印钞机，无限量地购入外汇债券，用以缓解欧元区预算赤字。如果日本也打算这么做，鉴于日本是比瑞士大的多的经济体，日本的这一举措可能会引致巨大的量化宽松影响。

Japan’s curse as creditor nation with $3 trillion of net assets abroad is that safe-haven flows cause the yen to strengthen during a crisis, tightening policy in a "pro-cyclical" fashion when least wanted, this time due to the Fukushima nuclear disaster and Europe’s sovereign debt saga.

日本的作为债权国拥有3万亿美元的净海外资产，在福岛核电站危机和欧洲的主权债务危机的影响下，这一安全港导致日本在面临危机，政策紧缩，最不想日元升值时却陷入“亲周期性”日元升值的魔咒。

The effect of the strong yen has been to asphyxiate Japan’s exporters, leading to a "hollowing out" of manfacturing as companies switch plant abroad. Fuel imports to replace the closure of nuclear plants amount to an added import shock.

日元走强导致日本出口遭受严重打击，企业被迫将工厂转移海外，导致制造业的产业“空洞”。为了弥补核电站关闭的能源缺口的燃油进口又给进口带来了压力。

The combined effect has caused the country's historic trade surplus to evaporate altogether, not helped in recent months by a partial boycott of Japanese goods in China over the Diayou-Senkaku island dispute. The burden of the strong yen has finally become too great to bear.

以上各种因素的影响导致日本积累的贸易盈余蒸发，而近期中国由于钓鱼岛问题引发的对日货的制抵对此雪上加霜。日元增值变成了日本政府不能承受之重。

Opinion is split over the wisdom of ultra-loose money. Although Japan is trapped in chronic deflation, it is a stable - almost comfortable - equilibrium. The "real" value of savings is rising, in stark contrast to the West.

对于宽松的货币政策业界有支持也有反对之声。尽管日本陷入了长期通货紧缩的困境，但这是一个稳定的，几乎可称的上不错的平衡。和西方国家相反，日本储蓄的“真正”价值在增高而不是贬低。

-------------译者：wildog-审核者：chen_lt------------

Stephen Jen from SLJ Macro Partners said the Bank of Japan is right to fret that a return to inflation could set off a spike in debt costs and a flight from Japanese government bonds (JGBs).

SLJ Macro Partners的Stephen Jen表示，日本央行对于回归通胀会导致债务成本飙升和日本国债（JGB）大肆抛售的担忧是正确的。

"Any meaningful sell-off in the JGBs could trigger a serious problem in Japan’s banking system. The holdings of JGBs by Japanese banks account for 900pc of their Tier I capital," he said. Better the Devil you know.

“任何大规模的国债抛售将会导致日本银行体系的严重问题，日本各银行持有的国债占其一级资本的900%之多，” Stephen Jen说。正如那句话所言，已知的魔鬼总比未知的要好。

Professor Richard Werner from Southampton University, author of Princes of the Yen, said the Bank of Japan is to blame for the country's failure to shake off its financial crisis in the early 1990s and for two Lost Decades of perma-slump that have followed. He accused the bank of dragging its feet at every stage, forcing governments to rely on huge fiscal deficits instead.

《日元的首领》(Princes of the Yen)一书的作者，南安普敦大学的Richard Werner教授表示，日本央行应当为日本未曾摆脱90年代初的经济危机及之后持续衰退的“失去的二十年”而负责，他谴责央行在每一个阶段的拖拉使政府被迫傍上巨额的财政赤字。

This tight-money/loose fiscal mix has pushed public debt to 240pc of GDP. The country would have been better served if the bank had stopped the rot immediately by flooding the money supply to kickstart lending. "It has taken 20 years and the Fed's Ben Bernanke to show them how to do it."

货币紧缩和财政宽松的混合模式使日本公共债务占比高达GDP的240%。而如果央行在当时立即注入货币供给重启信贷市场以扭转衰弱的经济，则日本本将运作得更佳。“早在二十年前，美联储的本伯南克就告诉过他们该怎么做了。”

"Mr Abe has the right intentions but the Bank of Japan knows how to put up a fight. After watching the glacial moves in Japan for over 20 years - often in the wrong direction - I want to see the details before being sure that something really big is happening," he said.

“安倍的打算是正确的，而日本央行对于该怎样抵抗则了然于胸。二十多年来，在见证了日本大多数时候都朝着错误方向的缓慢前行之后，我想在确信即将有大事件发生之前看到更为详细的信息。”Richard Werner说。