超级军网原创翻译【红剑出鞘】北京终于直面反潜顽疾
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【红剑出鞘】北京（终于）直面反潜顽疾龙腾网版权所有 http://www.ltaaa.com
Beijing Confronts Long-Standing Weakness in ASW
龙腾网版权所有 http://www.ltaaa.com龙腾网版权所有 http://www.ltaaa.com
原帖地址：
http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/navy/beijing-confronts-long-standing-weakness-asw-6068.html
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07-04-2012 #1
Jeff Head
Senior Member
Join Date Sep 2005
Location Idaho - Beautiful Rocky Mountains
Posts 3,758
【红剑注，姐夫头头，此网友至少5,60几岁了，美国海军退伍老兵，优秀的CG制图者，中国网络上传开的瓦良格航母高清CG透视图的原始作者；优秀的模型制作者；类似于汤姆·克兰西一样的正在架空YY军事小说创造的道路上越陷越深的业余作家，著有描述美国与西方联合起来对抗中国和阿拉子民的进攻的YY小说 DRAGON'S FURY 龙之怒，并且已经以此盈利无数，有自己的专业军事资料网站—— www.jeffhead.com 手里关于中国人民解放军的完备资料也许会让“中国男人某某某”都流冷汗。
Mr. Head is a member of the Sons of the American Revolution and a member of the U.S. Naval Institute. He worked as a designer, manager, director, and consultant for over twenty-five years in the defense, nuclear power, and computer industries where he was involved in various engineering, support, and management capacities. Projects he has been involed with have included the A-7 attack aircraft program, the MLRS (Multiple Launch Rocket System) program, the San Onofre Nuclear Power Project, the South Texas Nuclear Power Project, and the Theater High Altitude Air Defense System (THAADS).
头头先生是一个“美国革命之子”美国爱国主义教育基地成员和美国海军研究所成员。他在防务，核能，电脑工业以设计者，经理，主管和顾问的身份在多项工程，支持和管理岗位上工作了25年。参与了如下工程：A-7攻击机项目，(Multiple Launch Rocket System) MLRS 项目，San Onofre 核能项目，南得克萨斯州核能项目，Theater High Altitude Air Defense System 战区高空空防系统 (THAADS) 项目。
详见 http://www.jeffhead.com/about.htm】
引用 Intelligence Quarterly 《情报季刊》 文章：Beijing Confronts Long-Standing Weakness in ASW 北京（终于）直面反潜顽疾
原文刊于2011年8月1日
http://www.intelligencequarterly.com/2011/08/beijing-confronts-long-standing-weakness-in-anti-submarine-warfare/
【注意下面这张图，非常有深意】
以下引用文章：
Observers of China’s naval development generally accept that Chinese anti-submarine warfare (ASW) remains an Achilles’ Heel of the otherwise highly methodical and quite remarkable evolution of Chinese maritime power. While Beijing will soon be able to boast about its first aircraft carrier and continues to upgrade an already respectable array of lethal anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs), the Chinese fleet nevertheless remains acutely vulnerable to submarine attack. The July 2011 issue ofXiandai Jianchuan [Modern Ships] ran under the cover story of “The ASW Crisis of China’s Aircraft Carrier,” suggesting Chinese naval analysts appreciate this weakness. Moreover, a Chinese Navy captain writing in the same journal demonstrated the PLA Navy’s concern with the U.S. Navy submarine force when he described the deployment of one of America’s newest nuclear attack submarines to the western Pacific as an “event of no small significance” for the regional security situation.
观察中国海军发展的观察家们基本上公认——对于高度有条不紊的超然进化的中国海上力量来说，Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW)反潜作战能力，就是其长堤蚁穴，墙根松砖和木桶短板。【中国翻译，就是不用“阿基里斯之踝”这种六个字的拗口舶来品，怎么着？】当北京即将耀武扬威地推出它的第一艘航母并继续在业已致命的 Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles (ASCM) 反舰巡航导弹 的征途上越走越远时，中国舰队依然深深受到潜艇的威胁。2011年7月的《现代舰船》封面故事——“中国航母的反潜危机” 透露出中国海军分析人士也认同这个缺陷。此外，一位中国海军 舰长（或者上校？captain）在同期杂志中的撰文提到美国最新型核攻击潜艇在西太平洋的部署是对于地区安全“不可忽视的一件事情”，展示了解放军海军对于美国海军潜艇力量的担忧。
Symbolic of China’s major weakness in ASW, Beijing seems to have less than a dozen maritime patrol aircraft (MPA)—the ASW workhorse of most advanced navies. No wonder the submarine market in East and South Asia has been so dynamic over the last decade, as smaller neighbors, such as Vietnam, and other regional competitors, such as Australia, reach for an answer to China’s naval buildup. Based on recent Chinese naval writings, Chinese defense analysts are quite concerned about the challenge foreign submarines may pose to Chinese maritime interests and ambitions. Indeed, available evidence suggests China is laying the foundation for a considerably more advanced ASW capability that could emerge one or two decades hence.
中国反潜实力的标志性缺陷——北京手里只有少于一打的 Maritime Patrol Aircraft (MPA) 海事巡逻机——大多数先进海军国家的反潜作战的生力军。当小一点的邻居，如越南，或者区域竞争对手，如澳大利亚，皆上下求索于解答中国海军扩张的难题时，难怪东亚和东南亚最近十年的潜艇市场异常火爆。基于近期中国海军的文章，中国防务分析家们对于外国潜艇对中国海事利益和野心的挑战，相当忧心。是的，有证据证明中国正在为未来10到20年的更加先进的反潜作战能力埋下伏笔。
————以上引用（部分原文，全篇请移步原始链接）。
Among many other items in this article, they talk about a PLAN "<i>qianshe fanqian daodan</i>" rocket launched ASW weapon for the Song Class SS vessels.
在众多关于解放军海军的文章中，他们提到一种“潜射反舰导弹”【目测，拼音坑爹】的从宋级常规潜艇火箭反射的反潜武器。
I am not aware of the specs for this weapon, but apparently there is something for the subs which would beg the question as to whether the PLAN have developed a surface vessel launched version.
我对于此武器规格不明了，但是显然既然有潜射型，就带出了到底有没有舰射型的问题。
The reference for the discussion regarding that weapon is this:
关于这款武器的讨论引用如下（引用《情报季刊》）：
Chen Guangwen, “Bu sheng zhuo ying: zhongguo haijun fanqian zhanli de fazhan” [Catching a Sound to Seize a Shadow: Development of China's ASW Combat Power] Jianzai wuqi [Shipborne Weapons], December 2010, p. 25
陈广文（音译），《扑风捉影：中国海军反潜战力的发展》【目测，拼音坑爹】，《舰载武器》2010年12月期，25页。【希望中国网友学习学习这种严谨的考据精神，好的考据，始于优秀的引用参考资料注释的格式】
Which I have not been able to obtain and read in English yet. Anyone familiar with it? Franko-Russe, Tphuang, etc?
我还没有找到英文版（的消息）。有人熟悉吗？Franko-Russe, Tphuang,?（叫了几个考据党网友的名字）
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07-04-2012 #2
asif iqbal （中巴友好的苏格兰人）
Junior Member Join Date Apr 2006
Location Scotland
Posts 900
nice find Jeff, just one question, where is that picture taken, a Z9C with a Tico in the background? what was going on there
找的好Jeff，只是一个小问题，那张照片哪里照的？前面Z9C后面提康德罗加？发生什么事了？
I always said the best way to fight submarine is to deploy your own killer attack submarine, everything else is just a aid
我总是说，最好的反潜手段就是部署你自己的反潜潜艇，其他手段都只是辅助。
amd i think some people need to give China just a little bit of time, let them grow for heavens sake
我认为有些人应该给中国一点时间，让他们成长！我靠！【红剑注：海外很多红裤衩嫌中国进步速度还不够快】
anyhow MPA is in the works we have already seen the pics
不管怎样海事巡逻机已经着手了，我们已经看到过图片了。
Z15 medium lift helo is in the works which will bring advantage over Z9C
Z15中型载重直升机已经着手了，会带来超逾Z9C的优势
towed array sonars are also now evident but i am not sure about bigger and more advanced hull based sonars?
拖曳声纳也已证据确凿但是我不太确定关于更大更先进的舰身声纳？
current Type 056 dont have hangers but may do in the future, even if they do they will only manage a Z9C sized helo, how they are geared for ASW i am not quite sure, have we seen TAS on them? they wont hold much of a hull based sonar because of their size, plus they will be used for close shore patrol not as escorts
现在的056型还没有机库但也许以后会有，即使有也只能是Z9C的大小，它们为反潜是如何配置的我不熟，我们有看到上面有装拖曳声纳(TAS)吗？基于它们的大小，它们不可能装下太大的舰身声纳，另它们会用于近岸巡逻而不是（远洋舰队）护航。
when ex-Varyag is deployed hopefully it will have a carrier based AWACS, along with ASW Z8 air wing, in addition to Type 052C, Type 054A and a Type 095 SSN, what more anti-submarine warfare do they want?
当 前瓦良格 部署时希望她有舰载(Airborn Warning And Control System, AWACS)预警机，跟反潜 Z8 机群一起，以及052C, 054A 和 095 SSN 攻击核潜艇一起，反潜战能力还想要怎样啊？
i think the situtaion is far from ideal but not that critical, with long range armed Maritime patrol aircraft under development the situation will soon change
我认为情况远未乐观但也不是生死一线，随着远距武装海事巡逻机的开发情况会很快好转。
theres only one thing i think is of concern, lack of helos for the Navy, we will soon have more new ships than helos in PLAN, that is something they really need to addresss
只有一件事我很担心——缺少海军直升机。解放军马上会舰比机多，这是他们很需要着手解决的事情。
I think China should put on high priority the development of a NH-90 or Merlin sized helo designed specifically for the Navy, then deploying them in large numbers
我认为中国应该把研发 NH-90 或 Merlin 大小的海军专用直升机当作重点，然后大量部署。
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07-04-2012 #3
MwRYum
Senior Member Join Date Jul 2010
Posts 1,224
（香港人）
引用2楼：
“我认为中国应该把研发 NH-90 或 Merlin 大小的海军专用直升机当作重点，然后大量部署。”
If only they can domestically manufacture turbine engines of the same class and grade, with similar performance ratings, but they still unable to do so; in terms of helicopter models China has a class gap between the Z-9 and Z-8 (which those like the NH-90 or SH-60 would fit in): Z-9 is too small for an effective payload whereas Z-8 is too big for most PLAN surface combatants.
只要他们能自主生产同样级别和做工，相似的效能的涡轮引擎，但是他们现在依然不行；就直升机系列来说中国在 Z-9 和 Z-8 之间还缺少一个机型（跟 NH-90 或 SH-60一样就行）：Z9太小没有足够运载量而 Z-8 又太大，大多海军水面作战舰只搭载不下。
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07-04-2012 #4
plawolf
Senior Member Join Date Oct 2007
Posts 1,742
【红剑注，解放军之狼，牛逼的红裤衩，既能打败喷粪者，又能带动小白，逻辑论证能力一等一，等会你就知道了】
Is anyone able to find the reference section? Cannot seem to locate it for some reason...
有谁能找到上述参考文件吗？因为某种原因无法找到它们……
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07-04-2012 #5
wych
New Member Join Date Jul 2012
Posts 1
引用4楼：
“有谁能找到上述参考文件吗？因为某种原因无法找到它们……”
(Hi everyone.)
You can find the reference section at the end of the original article, which appeared in the Jamestown Foundation's China Brief July 29 2011 issue; (available & googlable online).
大家好
你们能从原文最后找到参考资料引用，Jamestown Foundation's China Brief 詹姆斯敦基金中国概况 2011年7月29日发布。（谷歌能找到）
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07-05-2012 #6
Geographer
Member Join Date Mar 2009
Posts 335
【红剑注，ID：地理学家，属于老外中比较理性的，以狼的眼睛审视中国的一举一动，不轻易被大众传媒影响，但绝对不是为了中国人民的幸福而存在的，老油条】
Why has the PLAN neglected ASW? Submarines are nothing new to East Asia. I guess helicopters are in very short supply, but there's no excuse for having so few maritime patrol aircraft and submarine chasing patrol boats.
为什么解放军海军要无视反潜呢？潜艇对于东亚来说又不是新鲜事物。我想因为直升机不够用是一条，但是这也不是仅有如此装备不足的一个海事巡逻机和猎潜艇部队的借口。
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07-05-2012 #7
plawolf
Senior Member
引用6楼：
“为什么解放军海军要无视反潜呢？潜艇对于东亚来说又不是新鲜事物。我想因为直升机不够用是一条，但是这也不是仅有如此装备不足的一个海事巡逻机和猎潜艇部队的借口。”
Well, I think the article Jeff linked does a fairly good analysis of the historical and practical reasons for this, with the most important factors being:
嗯，我想姐夫头头（楼主）链接的文章比较好的系统性的从历史和实用角度分析了这个问题，最重要影响因素如下：
- The vast gulf in capabilities between the PLA and potential adversaries until as late as a few years ago. It is only in the last 5 or so years that the PLAAF has grown strong enough to have a realistic chance of holding off enemy air power far enough out, and for long enough to allow things like AWACS and MPAs to operate with any degree of security. As the article pointed out, what is the point in investing vast sums and resources in a large MPA fleet if said fleet will get shot down as soon as they tried to do their job?
－ 解放军与其潜在敌人之间直到最近几年才（能现实面对的）实力的鸿沟。直到最近5年或者左右的时间，解放军空军才具有了把敌人的空中势力阻挡在足够远的范围以外的实力，从而可以能使自己的预警与反潜机能在这个区域内相对安全的运作。就像文章指出的，如果将大把的精力和资源投入到庞大的反潜机部队，而此部队一出门就会被击落，那又有何意义呢？
- The PLAN puts a great deal of emphasis on creative mine warfare, and they may well see that as sufficient to reducing enemy sub operations to a manageable level.
－ 解放军海军在创意性的水雷战上相当重视，而且他们很认为以此可以把敌人潜艇的活动限制到一个可以勉强接受的程度。
- The new evidence brought up by that article suggests that the PLAN may well have been following the odd adage that the best hunter of a sub is another sub.
－ 文章提出最新的证据暗示解放军可能遵从那句著名的谚语：最好的反潜手段就是另一艘潜艇。（最好的反XX手段就是另一个XX）
I feel that the article does not examine this aspect in as much detail as maybe it should. This may well be because they were looking at it from a US stand point instead of truly putting themselves in China's shoes.
我想这篇文章没有以应有的深度来检视这个角度，也许这正是因为他们是以美国的观点而不是真正站在中国的位置来看问题。
If a major conflict does break out, and the only likely example would be Taiwan, the PLAN would have a very specific mission in a relatively small area.
如果真有大型冲突爆发，而唯一可能就是台湾，那么解放军海军就会在一个相对较小的范围内执行一项相对固定的任务。【意思是说早就练好了】
In addition, it needs to be stressed that for China, even today, it's best defense against attack from a superior force like the USN is the economic co-dependancy between America and China. If hostilities does break out, it will be in everyone's interest to try and keep it as localized, contained and short-lived as possible.
另外需要特别指出对于中国来说，即使今天，其对抗一个像美国海军一样更优势的敌人的最好手段，依然是中美之间的经济互存矛盾。如果对抗真的发生，那么出于所有人的利益，最好把冲突控制在局部，可控，以及短期之内。
This means that initially at least, the Americans would not be looking at trying to cut off China's Sea Lines of Communication (SLC) by attacking merchant shipping, especially since the majority of that shipping will carrying manufactured goods destined for American and European shops, or the raw materials to make said goods.
这就意味着至少在最初期，美国不会想要掐断中国的 Sea Lines of Communication (SLC 或者SLOC) 海上交通线而攻击商船，尤其是当这些商船载着前往美国和欧洲的制造业商品或者制造这些商品的原材料的时候。
The PLAN has no hope of keeping China's sea lines open if the USN really wants to cut them off, so they don't even try to develop that capacity and instead make it such that America will be hurting itself as much as China if it went down that road.
解放军完全没有保持中国的海上交通线畅通的希望，如果美国海军真的想要掐断的话。所以他们甚至根本不去发展那种【红剑注，美国式海军建设的路子】能力而转而使得美国将像损伤中国一样的损伤美国自己，如果它走上那条道路的话。
Thus, the PLAN's ASW burden is massively reduced to where it only needs to be able to keep a relatively small section of the Chinese coast, namely the Taiwan Straits and it's immediate surrounding waters, free from enemy subs.
因此，解放军海军的反潜压力就极大的减轻为只需在一个相对较小的被称为台湾海峡的中国沿海范围和其周边海域，扫空敌潜艇。
In this context, the PLAN's preferred tactic of mine warfare and using it's large SSK fleet as mobile screens to lay and wait would have a far greater chance of success.
在这个背景下，解放军海军所善于的水雷战和其庞大的 SSK 柴电潜艇舰队做为活动水下扫描能力，坐等敌军入阵，要具有更大的成功性可能。
The PLAN's subs were never intended to out to sweep all enemy subs away like their USN counterparts. As far as they are concerned, USN subs can go anywhere they like and do whatever they liked so long as they do not enter the Taiwan straits to threaten the PLA landing forces.
解放军海军的潜艇根本就没打算像美国同行们一样以主动猎杀所有敌军为目的。以他们（解放军）的观点，美国潜艇可以在这个世界上任何地方做任何事情，只要不是跑台湾海峡来威胁登陆部队。
Something else to consider is that until the last decade or so, the PLAN actually did not really have many surface combatants worth sinking. Especially in the context of them operating in a heavily defended small stretch of water.
另外要考虑的是直到上一个十年左右，解放军海军根本就没有多少真正值得击沉的海面舰只，尤其是在这么一个小小的高度布防的海域。
When the PLAN only have Jianweis and the few Luhus, I think they would have happily traded one or more of those for a USN LA/Virgina or Seawolf. As such, all the PLAN would need to do is set up a perimeter patrolled by their SSKs, use lots of small landing craft so none would make for a good target and escort them with Jianweis and Luhus to provide point defense against shore based AShMs.
当解放军海军只有少数的江卫级和旅沪级的时候，我想他们会很乐于以一艘或者多艘损失比来交换美国一艘洛杉矶 / 弗吉尼亚级 或海狼级潜艇。如此，解放军海军所需要做的就是建立一个由柴电潜巡航构筑的防线，因为用小型登陆舰只所以没有一个值得攻击，再用江卫旅沪们护航提供对抗岸基 AShMs Anti-Ship Missiles 反舰导弹的点防御。
Even if an enemy SSN does manage to slip past the SSK sentries, as soon as it opens fire it will expose it's position and be effectively bottled in and have very little chance of getting out again alive. Would a USN sub skipper give the order to sink one or two ships, when he knows it won't matter one bit on the grand scheme of things, and that doing so would almost certainly mean he and his ship gets sunk in return? There would be no doubt if this was an invasion fleet heading for America, but would he do it for Taiwan? I have my doubts. But the point is, even if he does fire, the trade off still favours the PLAN.
即使敌人 SSN 攻击核潜艇真的成功穿透这层 SSK 柴电潜艇哨兵，一旦其开火就会暴露自己的位置而被有效包围猎歼从而很难有成功活着逃脱的机会。当美国潜艇舰长击沉一两艘舰船而他自己知道对于大局来说完全于事无补，而为此却几乎肯定要付出自己被击沉的代价时，他会发出这么做的命令吗？他们毫无疑问会这么做如果这是一支入侵美国的舰队，但是他们会为台湾这么做吗？我有疑虑。但是重点是，即使他真的开火，损失比也是极其有利于解放军。
Now, that might seem cruel and callouss, and you would be right. But that is the price of fighting a technologically superior foe. That is something America has not had to do since WWII, and I really don't think Americans today can easily get into that mindset and think that way and make those kind of calls.
这看上去有点残酷无情而且你是对的（真的是冷酷无情），但这是对抗一个科技实力远在自己之上的敌人的代价。那是美国自二战以后再未经历过的事情，而且我确实不认为今天的美国人能轻易变成那样的头脑，接受那种思考方式并作出那种决定。
It is only recently, now that tensions with Taiwan has receded and the PLA is confident that they could take the island no matter what, that the PLAN has started to set it's sights beyond Taiwan. That is the main driving force behind the recent massive build up of it's surface fleet, the acquisition of LPDs and carriers and possible LHDs, and it is only with this extended scope that the PLAN is looking at ASW anew.
直到最近，与台湾的紧张缓和而且解放军自信无论如何都能拿下台湾岛，直到这时解放军才开始把目光从台湾身上移开至更高层面。那正是最近几年大量水面舰只建造高潮的原因，取得船坞登陆舰，航母，以及可能的两栖攻击舰，而正是因为这些扩展的视野才使解放军对于反潜作战拥有全新看待的眼光。
However, it should still be stressed that it is important to look at this build up in terms of what the PLAN plans to do with it's new fleet and who it is aimed at.
然而，依然要强调的是看待解放军海军的新舰队的计划是什么以及他们的目标是谁。
The hawks, defense contracts and military in America automatically assumes that the build up is aimed at challenging America, or tries to make it seem that way as a means to drum up a threat to justify America's frankly ridiculously over-sized defense budget. But they would be wrong.
鹰派，防务承包商以及美国军方立即自动认为这种扩展是针对美国的挑战，或者让情况看起来像那样从而可以为美国事实上荒谬的超额军事预算敲起威胁论的战鼓。但是他们错了。
The PLAN will not be in a position to challenge the USN for supremacy of the oceans for decades to come if ever, because China does not see the justification for such massive spending on the military. Even when China's GDP is the same as America's China's defense spending will still be smaller because China spends about half as much in terms of GDP as America on defense, and I do not see that as changing much any time soon.
解放军海军于数十年内甚至永远将无法处于挑战美国海军大洋优势的位置上，因为中国不会认为像那种【美国那种】军事开销有正当理由。即使当中国的 GDP 与美国一样的时候中国的国防开支也依然会少得多。因为中国按 GDP 百分比国防开支只有美国一半，而且我不认为短期内会改变。
China's new fleet is aimed at protecting China's interest in South East Asia and Africa. If the PLAN ever uses it's fleet in anger, it will be to protect Chinese interests on Africa, or to slap down land grabs in the South China Sea like the PLAN has done before. Against those kinds of foes, the PLAN's current and projected ASW assets are just about passable. It is still an area that needs major investment, and the PLAN does recognize this, and seems to be doing the right things to address this deficiency. But in the context of the kinds of foes the PLAN might realistically face, it's ASW is not as quite as inadequate as it would seem at first glance.
中国的新舰队是着眼于保护中国在东南亚和非洲的利益。如果解放军哪天盛怒出兵，那将是保护中国在非洲的利益，或者像解放军曾经干过的一样，怒扇南海抢地者的耳光。对抗这样的敌人，解放军的现有和预期反潜能力尚能饭否，这是一个依然需要大量投入的领域而解放军也承认形势，看上去正在做出恶补缺漏的努力。但是对抗这种类型的解放军很现实可能面对的敌人，他的反潜能力并不如初瞥之下看上去那样完全不足。
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07-05-2012 #8
SampanViking
The Capitalist
Join Date Aug 2005 Location Bristol UK
Posts 1,383
【红剑注，维京舢板，“资本家”，大版主之一，没有什么法律规定版主不可以逻辑理性的畅所欲言自己的意见和对于事务的理解，在讨论话题的时候，版主就是一个普通发贴者，一个通常发表有建设性意义的帖子的发贴者】
It looks a s though Plawolf has largely shot my fox on this one.
看上去解放军之狼基本上把我的狐狸抢走了（基本上说完了我的论点）。
I still see China as a land power first and a maritime power only in the long term. Clearly the main maritime phase of China's military modernisation is only just starting to get going and the PLAN is nowhere near being realistically capable of going head to head against the USN far beyond territorial waters.
我依然把中国先视为陆权强国而后再从长远来视为海权强权。显然中国的海事现代化进程才刚刚起步而解放军海军除了在其近海以外还完全远离那个与美国海军针锋相对的位置。
In that sense, spending money on something expensive like capable ASW systems would be premature and diverting resources away from where they can be better spent.
As others have noted, ASW is a capability to develop for the coming decades, once a navy is in place that warrants the protection.
依此考量，在昂贵的可靠反潜系统上投入太多恰恰是不成熟的和南辕北辙于正应该关键投入建设的领域。
正如大家注意到的，反潜能力是下个十年的建设纲领，当有一支足够值得保护的海军成型的时候。
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07-05-2012 #9
asif iqbal
Junior Member
i think a point is also being missed here
我认为这里大家也忽视了一点
no doubt all this is for war, but like in the Cold War, world Navys do tit for tat all the time, they always play cat and mouse with each other and through these games in peacetime you make or break respect for ones opponents
毫无疑问这（建设海军）是为了备战，但是就像冷战一样，世界各地海军一直就是针尖对麦芒，他们各自互相玩猫和老鼠的游戏，而通过这些和平时期的斗争，你取得或失去你对手的尊敬。
China will very soon find itself playing these games with its foes and friends, and when it does it has to be prepared to make a impact, otherwise its drawsbacks and weaknesses will be descovered and that is something China cant afford
中国很快就会发现自己将要和自己的敌人和朋友玩这种游戏，而当他这么做时，他最好有所应对并有所斩获，否则他的缺点和不足将会被人发现，而那是中国无法负担的一种事情。
the last thing you want is to be building up ur capability and then when it comes to test time you are let down, US and China will never go to war, but Cold War style engagments will be something of teh future and China needs to be prepared for it
你最不希望见到的事情是你辛苦建设起来的能力到了要用时经受不住考验，美国与中国永远不会步入战争，但是冷战式样的 engagement 接触 将是必然，而中国最好能有所准备。
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【红剑出鞘】北京（终于）直面反潜顽疾龙腾网版权所有 http://www.ltaaa.com
Beijing Confronts Long-Standing Weakness in ASW
龙腾网版权所有 http://www.ltaaa.com龙腾网版权所有 http://www.ltaaa.com
原帖地址：
http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/navy/beijing-confronts-long-standing-weakness-asw-6068.html
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07-04-2012 #1
Jeff Head
Senior Member
Join Date Sep 2005
Location Idaho - Beautiful Rocky Mountains
Posts 3,758
【红剑注，姐夫头头，此网友至少5,60几岁了，美国海军退伍老兵，优秀的CG制图者，中国网络上传开的瓦良格航母高清CG透视图的原始作者；优秀的模型制作者；类似于汤姆·克兰西一样的正在架空YY军事小说创造的道路上越陷越深的业余作家，著有描述美国与西方联合起来对抗中国和阿拉子民的进攻的YY小说 DRAGON'S FURY 龙之怒，并且已经以此盈利无数，有自己的专业军事资料网站—— www.jeffhead.com 手里关于中国人民解放军的完备资料也许会让“中国男人某某某”都流冷汗。
Mr. Head is a member of the Sons of the American Revolution and a member of the U.S. Naval Institute. He worked as a designer, manager, director, and consultant for over twenty-five years in the defense, nuclear power, and computer industries where he was involved in various engineering, support, and management capacities. Projects he has been involed with have included the A-7 attack aircraft program, the MLRS (Multiple Launch Rocket System) program, the San Onofre Nuclear Power Project, the South Texas Nuclear Power Project, and the Theater High Altitude Air Defense System (THAADS).
头头先生是一个“美国革命之子”美国爱国主义教育基地成员和美国海军研究所成员。他在防务，核能，电脑工业以设计者，经理，主管和顾问的身份在多项工程，支持和管理岗位上工作了25年。参与了如下工程：A-7攻击机项目，(Multiple Launch Rocket System) MLRS 项目，San Onofre 核能项目，南得克萨斯州核能项目，Theater High Altitude Air Defense System 战区高空空防系统 (THAADS) 项目。
详见 http://www.jeffhead.com/about.htm】
引用 Intelligence Quarterly 《情报季刊》 文章：Beijing Confronts Long-Standing Weakness in ASW 北京（终于）直面反潜顽疾
原文刊于2011年8月1日
http://www.intelligencequarterly.com/2011/08/beijing-confronts-long-standing-weakness-in-anti-submarine-warfare/
【注意下面这张图，非常有深意】
以下引用文章：
Observers of China’s naval development generally accept that Chinese anti-submarine warfare (ASW) remains an Achilles’ Heel of the otherwise highly methodical and quite remarkable evolution of Chinese maritime power. While Beijing will soon be able to boast about its first aircraft carrier and continues to upgrade an already respectable array of lethal anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs), the Chinese fleet nevertheless remains acutely vulnerable to submarine attack. The July 2011 issue ofXiandai Jianchuan [Modern Ships] ran under the cover story of “The ASW Crisis of China’s Aircraft Carrier,” suggesting Chinese naval analysts appreciate this weakness. Moreover, a Chinese Navy captain writing in the same journal demonstrated the PLA Navy’s concern with the U.S. Navy submarine force when he described the deployment of one of America’s newest nuclear attack submarines to the western Pacific as an “event of no small significance” for the regional security situation.
观察中国海军发展的观察家们基本上公认——对于高度有条不紊的超然进化的中国海上力量来说，Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW)反潜作战能力，就是其长堤蚁穴，墙根松砖和木桶短板。【中国翻译，就是不用“阿基里斯之踝”这种六个字的拗口舶来品，怎么着？】当北京即将耀武扬威地推出它的第一艘航母并继续在业已致命的 Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles (ASCM) 反舰巡航导弹 的征途上越走越远时，中国舰队依然深深受到潜艇的威胁。2011年7月的《现代舰船》封面故事——“中国航母的反潜危机” 透露出中国海军分析人士也认同这个缺陷。此外，一位中国海军 舰长（或者上校？captain）在同期杂志中的撰文提到美国最新型核攻击潜艇在西太平洋的部署是对于地区安全“不可忽视的一件事情”，展示了解放军海军对于美国海军潜艇力量的担忧。
Symbolic of China’s major weakness in ASW, Beijing seems to have less than a dozen maritime patrol aircraft (MPA)—the ASW workhorse of most advanced navies. No wonder the submarine market in East and South Asia has been so dynamic over the last decade, as smaller neighbors, such as Vietnam, and other regional competitors, such as Australia, reach for an answer to China’s naval buildup. Based on recent Chinese naval writings, Chinese defense analysts are quite concerned about the challenge foreign submarines may pose to Chinese maritime interests and ambitions. Indeed, available evidence suggests China is laying the foundation for a considerably more advanced ASW capability that could emerge one or two decades hence.
中国反潜实力的标志性缺陷——北京手里只有少于一打的 Maritime Patrol Aircraft (MPA) 海事巡逻机——大多数先进海军国家的反潜作战的生力军。当小一点的邻居，如越南，或者区域竞争对手，如澳大利亚，皆上下求索于解答中国海军扩张的难题时，难怪东亚和东南亚最近十年的潜艇市场异常火爆。基于近期中国海军的文章，中国防务分析家们对于外国潜艇对中国海事利益和野心的挑战，相当忧心。是的，有证据证明中国正在为未来10到20年的更加先进的反潜作战能力埋下伏笔。
————以上引用（部分原文，全篇请移步原始链接）。
Among many other items in this article, they talk about a PLAN "<i>qianshe fanqian daodan</i>" rocket launched ASW weapon for the Song Class SS vessels.
在众多关于解放军海军的文章中，他们提到一种“潜射反舰导弹”【目测，拼音坑爹】的从宋级常规潜艇火箭反射的反潜武器。
I am not aware of the specs for this weapon, but apparently there is something for the subs which would beg the question as to whether the PLAN have developed a surface vessel launched version.
我对于此武器规格不明了，但是显然既然有潜射型，就带出了到底有没有舰射型的问题。
The reference for the discussion regarding that weapon is this:
关于这款武器的讨论引用如下（引用《情报季刊》）：
Chen Guangwen, “Bu sheng zhuo ying: zhongguo haijun fanqian zhanli de fazhan” [Catching a Sound to Seize a Shadow: Development of China's ASW Combat Power] Jianzai wuqi [Shipborne Weapons], December 2010, p. 25
陈广文（音译），《扑风捉影：中国海军反潜战力的发展》【目测，拼音坑爹】，《舰载武器》2010年12月期，25页。【希望中国网友学习学习这种严谨的考据精神，好的考据，始于优秀的引用参考资料注释的格式】
Which I have not been able to obtain and read in English yet. Anyone familiar with it? Franko-Russe, Tphuang, etc?
我还没有找到英文版（的消息）。有人熟悉吗？Franko-Russe, Tphuang,?（叫了几个考据党网友的名字）
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07-04-2012 #2
asif iqbal （中巴友好的苏格兰人）
Junior Member Join Date Apr 2006
Location Scotland
Posts 900
nice find Jeff, just one question, where is that picture taken, a Z9C with a Tico in the background? what was going on there
找的好Jeff，只是一个小问题，那张照片哪里照的？前面Z9C后面提康德罗加？发生什么事了？
I always said the best way to fight submarine is to deploy your own killer attack submarine, everything else is just a aid
我总是说，最好的反潜手段就是部署你自己的反潜潜艇，其他手段都只是辅助。
amd i think some people need to give China just a little bit of time, let them grow for heavens sake
我认为有些人应该给中国一点时间，让他们成长！我靠！【红剑注：海外很多红裤衩嫌中国进步速度还不够快】
anyhow MPA is in the works we have already seen the pics
不管怎样海事巡逻机已经着手了，我们已经看到过图片了。
Z15 medium lift helo is in the works which will bring advantage over Z9C
Z15中型载重直升机已经着手了，会带来超逾Z9C的优势
towed array sonars are also now evident but i am not sure about bigger and more advanced hull based sonars?
拖曳声纳也已证据确凿但是我不太确定关于更大更先进的舰身声纳？
current Type 056 dont have hangers but may do in the future, even if they do they will only manage a Z9C sized helo, how they are geared for ASW i am not quite sure, have we seen TAS on them? they wont hold much of a hull based sonar because of their size, plus they will be used for close shore patrol not as escorts
现在的056型还没有机库但也许以后会有，即使有也只能是Z9C的大小，它们为反潜是如何配置的我不熟，我们有看到上面有装拖曳声纳(TAS)吗？基于它们的大小，它们不可能装下太大的舰身声纳，另它们会用于近岸巡逻而不是（远洋舰队）护航。
when ex-Varyag is deployed hopefully it will have a carrier based AWACS, along with ASW Z8 air wing, in addition to Type 052C, Type 054A and a Type 095 SSN, what more anti-submarine warfare do they want?
当 前瓦良格 部署时希望她有舰载(Airborn Warning And Control System, AWACS)预警机，跟反潜 Z8 机群一起，以及052C, 054A 和 095 SSN 攻击核潜艇一起，反潜战能力还想要怎样啊？
i think the situtaion is far from ideal but not that critical, with long range armed Maritime patrol aircraft under development the situation will soon change
我认为情况远未乐观但也不是生死一线，随着远距武装海事巡逻机的开发情况会很快好转。
theres only one thing i think is of concern, lack of helos for the Navy, we will soon have more new ships than helos in PLAN, that is something they really need to addresss
只有一件事我很担心——缺少海军直升机。解放军马上会舰比机多，这是他们很需要着手解决的事情。
I think China should put on high priority the development of a NH-90 or Merlin sized helo designed specifically for the Navy, then deploying them in large numbers
我认为中国应该把研发 NH-90 或 Merlin 大小的海军专用直升机当作重点，然后大量部署。
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07-04-2012 #3
MwRYum
Senior Member Join Date Jul 2010
Posts 1,224
（香港人）
引用2楼：
“我认为中国应该把研发 NH-90 或 Merlin 大小的海军专用直升机当作重点，然后大量部署。”
If only they can domestically manufacture turbine engines of the same class and grade, with similar performance ratings, but they still unable to do so; in terms of helicopter models China has a class gap between the Z-9 and Z-8 (which those like the NH-90 or SH-60 would fit in): Z-9 is too small for an effective payload whereas Z-8 is too big for most PLAN surface combatants.
只要他们能自主生产同样级别和做工，相似的效能的涡轮引擎，但是他们现在依然不行；就直升机系列来说中国在 Z-9 和 Z-8 之间还缺少一个机型（跟 NH-90 或 SH-60一样就行）：Z9太小没有足够运载量而 Z-8 又太大，大多海军水面作战舰只搭载不下。
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07-04-2012 #4
plawolf
Senior Member Join Date Oct 2007
Posts 1,742
【红剑注，解放军之狼，牛逼的红裤衩，既能打败喷粪者，又能带动小白，逻辑论证能力一等一，等会你就知道了】
Is anyone able to find the reference section? Cannot seem to locate it for some reason...
有谁能找到上述参考文件吗？因为某种原因无法找到它们……
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07-04-2012 #5
wych
New Member Join Date Jul 2012
Posts 1
引用4楼：
“有谁能找到上述参考文件吗？因为某种原因无法找到它们……”
(Hi everyone.)
You can find the reference section at the end of the original article, which appeared in the Jamestown Foundation's China Brief July 29 2011 issue; (available & googlable online).
大家好
你们能从原文最后找到参考资料引用，Jamestown Foundation's China Brief 詹姆斯敦基金中国概况 2011年7月29日发布。（谷歌能找到）
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07-05-2012 #6
Geographer
Member Join Date Mar 2009
Posts 335
【红剑注，ID：地理学家，属于老外中比较理性的，以狼的眼睛审视中国的一举一动，不轻易被大众传媒影响，但绝对不是为了中国人民的幸福而存在的，老油条】
Why has the PLAN neglected ASW? Submarines are nothing new to East Asia. I guess helicopters are in very short supply, but there's no excuse for having so few maritime patrol aircraft and submarine chasing patrol boats.
为什么解放军海军要无视反潜呢？潜艇对于东亚来说又不是新鲜事物。我想因为直升机不够用是一条，但是这也不是仅有如此装备不足的一个海事巡逻机和猎潜艇部队的借口。
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07-05-2012 #7
plawolf
Senior Member
引用6楼：
“为什么解放军海军要无视反潜呢？潜艇对于东亚来说又不是新鲜事物。我想因为直升机不够用是一条，但是这也不是仅有如此装备不足的一个海事巡逻机和猎潜艇部队的借口。”
Well, I think the article Jeff linked does a fairly good analysis of the historical and practical reasons for this, with the most important factors being:
嗯，我想姐夫头头（楼主）链接的文章比较好的系统性的从历史和实用角度分析了这个问题，最重要影响因素如下：
- The vast gulf in capabilities between the PLA and potential adversaries until as late as a few years ago. It is only in the last 5 or so years that the PLAAF has grown strong enough to have a realistic chance of holding off enemy air power far enough out, and for long enough to allow things like AWACS and MPAs to operate with any degree of security. As the article pointed out, what is the point in investing vast sums and resources in a large MPA fleet if said fleet will get shot down as soon as they tried to do their job?
－ 解放军与其潜在敌人之间直到最近几年才（能现实面对的）实力的鸿沟。直到最近5年或者左右的时间，解放军空军才具有了把敌人的空中势力阻挡在足够远的范围以外的实力，从而可以能使自己的预警与反潜机能在这个区域内相对安全的运作。就像文章指出的，如果将大把的精力和资源投入到庞大的反潜机部队，而此部队一出门就会被击落，那又有何意义呢？
- The PLAN puts a great deal of emphasis on creative mine warfare, and they may well see that as sufficient to reducing enemy sub operations to a manageable level.
－ 解放军海军在创意性的水雷战上相当重视，而且他们很认为以此可以把敌人潜艇的活动限制到一个可以勉强接受的程度。
- The new evidence brought up by that article suggests that the PLAN may well have been following the odd adage that the best hunter of a sub is another sub.
－ 文章提出最新的证据暗示解放军可能遵从那句著名的谚语：最好的反潜手段就是另一艘潜艇。（最好的反XX手段就是另一个XX）
I feel that the article does not examine this aspect in as much detail as maybe it should. This may well be because they were looking at it from a US stand point instead of truly putting themselves in China's shoes.
我想这篇文章没有以应有的深度来检视这个角度，也许这正是因为他们是以美国的观点而不是真正站在中国的位置来看问题。
If a major conflict does break out, and the only likely example would be Taiwan, the PLAN would have a very specific mission in a relatively small area.
如果真有大型冲突爆发，而唯一可能就是台湾，那么解放军海军就会在一个相对较小的范围内执行一项相对固定的任务。【意思是说早就练好了】
In addition, it needs to be stressed that for China, even today, it's best defense against attack from a superior force like the USN is the economic co-dependancy between America and China. If hostilities does break out, it will be in everyone's interest to try and keep it as localized, contained and short-lived as possible.
另外需要特别指出对于中国来说，即使今天，其对抗一个像美国海军一样更优势的敌人的最好手段，依然是中美之间的经济互存矛盾。如果对抗真的发生，那么出于所有人的利益，最好把冲突控制在局部，可控，以及短期之内。
This means that initially at least, the Americans would not be looking at trying to cut off China's Sea Lines of Communication (SLC) by attacking merchant shipping, especially since the majority of that shipping will carrying manufactured goods destined for American and European shops, or the raw materials to make said goods.
这就意味着至少在最初期，美国不会想要掐断中国的 Sea Lines of Communication (SLC 或者SLOC) 海上交通线而攻击商船，尤其是当这些商船载着前往美国和欧洲的制造业商品或者制造这些商品的原材料的时候。
The PLAN has no hope of keeping China's sea lines open if the USN really wants to cut them off, so they don't even try to develop that capacity and instead make it such that America will be hurting itself as much as China if it went down that road.
解放军完全没有保持中国的海上交通线畅通的希望，如果美国海军真的想要掐断的话。所以他们甚至根本不去发展那种【红剑注，美国式海军建设的路子】能力而转而使得美国将像损伤中国一样的损伤美国自己，如果它走上那条道路的话。
Thus, the PLAN's ASW burden is massively reduced to where it only needs to be able to keep a relatively small section of the Chinese coast, namely the Taiwan Straits and it's immediate surrounding waters, free from enemy subs.
因此，解放军海军的反潜压力就极大的减轻为只需在一个相对较小的被称为台湾海峡的中国沿海范围和其周边海域，扫空敌潜艇。
In this context, the PLAN's preferred tactic of mine warfare and using it's large SSK fleet as mobile screens to lay and wait would have a far greater chance of success.
在这个背景下，解放军海军所善于的水雷战和其庞大的 SSK 柴电潜艇舰队做为活动水下扫描能力，坐等敌军入阵，要具有更大的成功性可能。
The PLAN's subs were never intended to out to sweep all enemy subs away like their USN counterparts. As far as they are concerned, USN subs can go anywhere they like and do whatever they liked so long as they do not enter the Taiwan straits to threaten the PLA landing forces.
解放军海军的潜艇根本就没打算像美国同行们一样以主动猎杀所有敌军为目的。以他们（解放军）的观点，美国潜艇可以在这个世界上任何地方做任何事情，只要不是跑台湾海峡来威胁登陆部队。
Something else to consider is that until the last decade or so, the PLAN actually did not really have many surface combatants worth sinking. Especially in the context of them operating in a heavily defended small stretch of water.
另外要考虑的是直到上一个十年左右，解放军海军根本就没有多少真正值得击沉的海面舰只，尤其是在这么一个小小的高度布防的海域。
When the PLAN only have Jianweis and the few Luhus, I think they would have happily traded one or more of those for a USN LA/Virgina or Seawolf. As such, all the PLAN would need to do is set up a perimeter patrolled by their SSKs, use lots of small landing craft so none would make for a good target and escort them with Jianweis and Luhus to provide point defense against shore based AShMs.
当解放军海军只有少数的江卫级和旅沪级的时候，我想他们会很乐于以一艘或者多艘损失比来交换美国一艘洛杉矶 / 弗吉尼亚级 或海狼级潜艇。如此，解放军海军所需要做的就是建立一个由柴电潜巡航构筑的防线，因为用小型登陆舰只所以没有一个值得攻击，再用江卫旅沪们护航提供对抗岸基 AShMs Anti-Ship Missiles 反舰导弹的点防御。
Even if an enemy SSN does manage to slip past the SSK sentries, as soon as it opens fire it will expose it's position and be effectively bottled in and have very little chance of getting out again alive. Would a USN sub skipper give the order to sink one or two ships, when he knows it won't matter one bit on the grand scheme of things, and that doing so would almost certainly mean he and his ship gets sunk in return? There would be no doubt if this was an invasion fleet heading for America, but would he do it for Taiwan? I have my doubts. But the point is, even if he does fire, the trade off still favours the PLAN.
即使敌人 SSN 攻击核潜艇真的成功穿透这层 SSK 柴电潜艇哨兵，一旦其开火就会暴露自己的位置而被有效包围猎歼从而很难有成功活着逃脱的机会。当美国潜艇舰长击沉一两艘舰船而他自己知道对于大局来说完全于事无补，而为此却几乎肯定要付出自己被击沉的代价时，他会发出这么做的命令吗？他们毫无疑问会这么做如果这是一支入侵美国的舰队，但是他们会为台湾这么做吗？我有疑虑。但是重点是，即使他真的开火，损失比也是极其有利于解放军。
Now, that might seem cruel and callouss, and you would be right. But that is the price of fighting a technologically superior foe. That is something America has not had to do since WWII, and I really don't think Americans today can easily get into that mindset and think that way and make those kind of calls.
这看上去有点残酷无情而且你是对的（真的是冷酷无情），但这是对抗一个科技实力远在自己之上的敌人的代价。那是美国自二战以后再未经历过的事情，而且我确实不认为今天的美国人能轻易变成那样的头脑，接受那种思考方式并作出那种决定。
It is only recently, now that tensions with Taiwan has receded and the PLA is confident that they could take the island no matter what, that the PLAN has started to set it's sights beyond Taiwan. That is the main driving force behind the recent massive build up of it's surface fleet, the acquisition of LPDs and carriers and possible LHDs, and it is only with this extended scope that the PLAN is looking at ASW anew.
直到最近，与台湾的紧张缓和而且解放军自信无论如何都能拿下台湾岛，直到这时解放军才开始把目光从台湾身上移开至更高层面。那正是最近几年大量水面舰只建造高潮的原因，取得船坞登陆舰，航母，以及可能的两栖攻击舰，而正是因为这些扩展的视野才使解放军对于反潜作战拥有全新看待的眼光。
However, it should still be stressed that it is important to look at this build up in terms of what the PLAN plans to do with it's new fleet and who it is aimed at.
然而，依然要强调的是看待解放军海军的新舰队的计划是什么以及他们的目标是谁。
The hawks, defense contracts and military in America automatically assumes that the build up is aimed at challenging America, or tries to make it seem that way as a means to drum up a threat to justify America's frankly ridiculously over-sized defense budget. But they would be wrong.
鹰派，防务承包商以及美国军方立即自动认为这种扩展是针对美国的挑战，或者让情况看起来像那样从而可以为美国事实上荒谬的超额军事预算敲起威胁论的战鼓。但是他们错了。
The PLAN will not be in a position to challenge the USN for supremacy of the oceans for decades to come if ever, because China does not see the justification for such massive spending on the military. Even when China's GDP is the same as America's China's defense spending will still be smaller because China spends about half as much in terms of GDP as America on defense, and I do not see that as changing much any time soon.
解放军海军于数十年内甚至永远将无法处于挑战美国海军大洋优势的位置上，因为中国不会认为像那种【美国那种】军事开销有正当理由。即使当中国的 GDP 与美国一样的时候中国的国防开支也依然会少得多。因为中国按 GDP 百分比国防开支只有美国一半，而且我不认为短期内会改变。
China's new fleet is aimed at protecting China's interest in South East Asia and Africa. If the PLAN ever uses it's fleet in anger, it will be to protect Chinese interests on Africa, or to slap down land grabs in the South China Sea like the PLAN has done before. Against those kinds of foes, the PLAN's current and projected ASW assets are just about passable. It is still an area that needs major investment, and the PLAN does recognize this, and seems to be doing the right things to address this deficiency. But in the context of the kinds of foes the PLAN might realistically face, it's ASW is not as quite as inadequate as it would seem at first glance.
中国的新舰队是着眼于保护中国在东南亚和非洲的利益。如果解放军哪天盛怒出兵，那将是保护中国在非洲的利益，或者像解放军曾经干过的一样，怒扇南海抢地者的耳光。对抗这样的敌人，解放军的现有和预期反潜能力尚能饭否，这是一个依然需要大量投入的领域而解放军也承认形势，看上去正在做出恶补缺漏的努力。但是对抗这种类型的解放军很现实可能面对的敌人，他的反潜能力并不如初瞥之下看上去那样完全不足。
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07-05-2012 #8
SampanViking
The Capitalist
Join Date Aug 2005 Location Bristol UK
Posts 1,383
【红剑注，维京舢板，“资本家”，大版主之一，没有什么法律规定版主不可以逻辑理性的畅所欲言自己的意见和对于事务的理解，在讨论话题的时候，版主就是一个普通发贴者，一个通常发表有建设性意义的帖子的发贴者】
It looks a s though Plawolf has largely shot my fox on this one.
看上去解放军之狼基本上把我的狐狸抢走了（基本上说完了我的论点）。
I still see China as a land power first and a maritime power only in the long term. Clearly the main maritime phase of China's military modernisation is only just starting to get going and the PLAN is nowhere near being realistically capable of going head to head against the USN far beyond territorial waters.
我依然把中国先视为陆权强国而后再从长远来视为海权强权。显然中国的海事现代化进程才刚刚起步而解放军海军除了在其近海以外还完全远离那个与美国海军针锋相对的位置。
In that sense, spending money on something expensive like capable ASW systems would be premature and diverting resources away from where they can be better spent.
As others have noted, ASW is a capability to develop for the coming decades, once a navy is in place that warrants the protection.
依此考量，在昂贵的可靠反潜系统上投入太多恰恰是不成熟的和南辕北辙于正应该关键投入建设的领域。
正如大家注意到的，反潜能力是下个十年的建设纲领，当有一支足够值得保护的海军成型的时候。
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07-05-2012 #9
asif iqbal
Junior Member
i think a point is also being missed here
我认为这里大家也忽视了一点
no doubt all this is for war, but like in the Cold War, world Navys do tit for tat all the time, they always play cat and mouse with each other and through these games in peacetime you make or break respect for ones opponents
毫无疑问这（建设海军）是为了备战，但是就像冷战一样，世界各地海军一直就是针尖对麦芒，他们各自互相玩猫和老鼠的游戏，而通过这些和平时期的斗争，你取得或失去你对手的尊敬。
China will very soon find itself playing these games with its foes and friends, and when it does it has to be prepared to make a impact, otherwise its drawsbacks and weaknesses will be descovered and that is something China cant afford
中国很快就会发现自己将要和自己的敌人和朋友玩这种游戏，而当他这么做时，他最好有所应对并有所斩获，否则他的缺点和不足将会被人发现，而那是中国无法负担的一种事情。
the last thing you want is to be building up ur capability and then when it comes to test time you are let down, US and China will never go to war, but Cold War style engagments will be something of teh future and China needs to be prepared for it
你最不希望见到的事情是你辛苦建设起来的能力到了要用时经受不住考验，美国与中国永远不会步入战争，但是冷战式样的 engagement 接触 将是必然，而中国最好能有所准备。
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Beijing Confronts Long-Standing Weakness in ASW
龙腾网版权所有 http://www.ltaaa.com龙腾网版权所有 http://www.ltaaa.com
原帖地址：
http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/navy/beijing-confronts-long-standing-weakness-asw-6068.html
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07-04-2012 #1
Jeff Head
Senior Member
Join Date Sep 2005
Location Idaho - Beautiful Rocky Mountains
Posts 3,758
【红剑注，姐夫头头，此网友至少5,60几岁了，美国海军退伍老兵，优秀的CG制图者，中国网络上传开的瓦良格航母高清CG透视图的原始作者；优秀的模型制作者；类似于汤姆·克兰西一样的正在架空YY军事小说创造的道路上越陷越深的业余作家，著有描述美国与西方联合起来对抗中国和阿拉子民的进攻的YY小说 DRAGON'S FURY 龙之怒，并且已经以此盈利无数，有自己的专业军事资料网站—— www.jeffhead.com 手里关于中国人民解放军的完备资料也许会让“中国男人某某某”都流冷汗。
Mr. Head is a member of the Sons of the American Revolution and a member of the U.S. Naval Institute. He worked as a designer, manager, director, and consultant for over twenty-five years in the defense, nuclear power, and computer industries where he was involved in various engineering, support, and management capacities. Projects he has been involed with have included the A-7 attack aircraft program, the MLRS (Multiple Launch Rocket System) program, the San Onofre Nuclear Power Project, the South Texas Nuclear Power Project, and the Theater High Altitude Air Defense System (THAADS).
头头先生是一个“美国革命之子”美国爱国主义教育基地成员和美国海军研究所成员。他在防务，核能，电脑工业以设计者，经理，主管和顾问的身份在多项工程，支持和管理岗位上工作了25年。参与了如下工程：A-7攻击机项目，(Multiple Launch Rocket System) MLRS 项目，San Onofre 核能项目，南得克萨斯州核能项目，Theater High Altitude Air Defense System 战区高空空防系统 (THAADS) 项目。
详见 http://www.jeffhead.com/about.htm】
引用 Intelligence Quarterly 《情报季刊》 文章：Beijing Confronts Long-Standing Weakness in ASW 北京（终于）直面反潜顽疾
原文刊于2011年8月1日
http://www.intelligencequarterly.com/2011/08/beijing-confronts-long-standing-weakness-in-anti-submarine-warfare/
【注意下面这张图，非常有深意】
以下引用文章：
Observers of China’s naval development generally accept that Chinese anti-submarine warfare (ASW) remains an Achilles’ Heel of the otherwise highly methodical and quite remarkable evolution of Chinese maritime power. While Beijing will soon be able to boast about its first aircraft carrier and continues to upgrade an already respectable array of lethal anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs), the Chinese fleet nevertheless remains acutely vulnerable to submarine attack. The July 2011 issue ofXiandai Jianchuan [Modern Ships] ran under the cover story of “The ASW Crisis of China’s Aircraft Carrier,” suggesting Chinese naval analysts appreciate this weakness. Moreover, a Chinese Navy captain writing in the same journal demonstrated the PLA Navy’s concern with the U.S. Navy submarine force when he described the deployment of one of America’s newest nuclear attack submarines to the western Pacific as an “event of no small significance” for the regional security situation.
观察中国海军发展的观察家们基本上公认——对于高度有条不紊的超然进化的中国海上力量来说，Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW)反潜作战能力，就是其长堤蚁穴，墙根松砖和木桶短板。【中国翻译，就是不用“阿基里斯之踝”这种六个字的拗口舶来品，怎么着？】当北京即将耀武扬威地推出它的第一艘航母并继续在业已致命的 Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles (ASCM) 反舰巡航导弹 的征途上越走越远时，中国舰队依然深深受到潜艇的威胁。2011年7月的《现代舰船》封面故事——“中国航母的反潜危机” 透露出中国海军分析人士也认同这个缺陷。此外，一位中国海军 舰长（或者上校？captain）在同期杂志中的撰文提到美国最新型核攻击潜艇在西太平洋的部署是对于地区安全“不可忽视的一件事情”，展示了解放军海军对于美国海军潜艇力量的担忧。
Symbolic of China’s major weakness in ASW, Beijing seems to have less than a dozen maritime patrol aircraft (MPA)—the ASW workhorse of most advanced navies. No wonder the submarine market in East and South Asia has been so dynamic over the last decade, as smaller neighbors, such as Vietnam, and other regional competitors, such as Australia, reach for an answer to China’s naval buildup. Based on recent Chinese naval writings, Chinese defense analysts are quite concerned about the challenge foreign submarines may pose to Chinese maritime interests and ambitions. Indeed, available evidence suggests China is laying the foundation for a considerably more advanced ASW capability that could emerge one or two decades hence.
中国反潜实力的标志性缺陷——北京手里只有少于一打的 Maritime Patrol Aircraft (MPA) 海事巡逻机——大多数先进海军国家的反潜作战的生力军。当小一点的邻居，如越南，或者区域竞争对手，如澳大利亚，皆上下求索于解答中国海军扩张的难题时，难怪东亚和东南亚最近十年的潜艇市场异常火爆。基于近期中国海军的文章，中国防务分析家们对于外国潜艇对中国海事利益和野心的挑战，相当忧心。是的，有证据证明中国正在为未来10到20年的更加先进的反潜作战能力埋下伏笔。
————以上引用（部分原文，全篇请移步原始链接）。
Among many other items in this article, they talk about a PLAN "<i>qianshe fanqian daodan</i>" rocket launched ASW weapon for the Song Class SS vessels.
在众多关于解放军海军的文章中，他们提到一种“潜射反舰导弹”【目测，拼音坑爹】的从宋级常规潜艇火箭反射的反潜武器。
I am not aware of the specs for this weapon, but apparently there is something for the subs which would beg the question as to whether the PLAN have developed a surface vessel launched version.
我对于此武器规格不明了，但是显然既然有潜射型，就带出了到底有没有舰射型的问题。
The reference for the discussion regarding that weapon is this:
关于这款武器的讨论引用如下（引用《情报季刊》）：
Chen Guangwen, “Bu sheng zhuo ying: zhongguo haijun fanqian zhanli de fazhan” [Catching a Sound to Seize a Shadow: Development of China's ASW Combat Power] Jianzai wuqi [Shipborne Weapons], December 2010, p. 25
陈广文（音译），《扑风捉影：中国海军反潜战力的发展》【目测，拼音坑爹】，《舰载武器》2010年12月期，25页。【希望中国网友学习学习这种严谨的考据精神，好的考据，始于优秀的引用参考资料注释的格式】
Which I have not been able to obtain and read in English yet. Anyone familiar with it? Franko-Russe, Tphuang, etc?
我还没有找到英文版（的消息）。有人熟悉吗？Franko-Russe, Tphuang,?（叫了几个考据党网友的名字）
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07-04-2012 #2
asif iqbal （中巴友好的苏格兰人）
Junior Member Join Date Apr 2006
Location Scotland
Posts 900
nice find Jeff, just one question, where is that picture taken, a Z9C with a Tico in the background? what was going on there
找的好Jeff，只是一个小问题，那张照片哪里照的？前面Z9C后面提康德罗加？发生什么事了？
I always said the best way to fight submarine is to deploy your own killer attack submarine, everything else is just a aid
我总是说，最好的反潜手段就是部署你自己的反潜潜艇，其他手段都只是辅助。
amd i think some people need to give China just a little bit of time, let them grow for heavens sake
我认为有些人应该给中国一点时间，让他们成长！我靠！【红剑注：海外很多红裤衩嫌中国进步速度还不够快】
anyhow MPA is in the works we have already seen the pics
不管怎样海事巡逻机已经着手了，我们已经看到过图片了。
Z15 medium lift helo is in the works which will bring advantage over Z9C
Z15中型载重直升机已经着手了，会带来超逾Z9C的优势
towed array sonars are also now evident but i am not sure about bigger and more advanced hull based sonars?
拖曳声纳也已证据确凿但是我不太确定关于更大更先进的舰身声纳？
current Type 056 dont have hangers but may do in the future, even if they do they will only manage a Z9C sized helo, how they are geared for ASW i am not quite sure, have we seen TAS on them? they wont hold much of a hull based sonar because of their size, plus they will be used for close shore patrol not as escorts
现在的056型还没有机库但也许以后会有，即使有也只能是Z9C的大小，它们为反潜是如何配置的我不熟，我们有看到上面有装拖曳声纳(TAS)吗？基于它们的大小，它们不可能装下太大的舰身声纳，另它们会用于近岸巡逻而不是（远洋舰队）护航。
when ex-Varyag is deployed hopefully it will have a carrier based AWACS, along with ASW Z8 air wing, in addition to Type 052C, Type 054A and a Type 095 SSN, what more anti-submarine warfare do they want?
当 前瓦良格 部署时希望她有舰载(Airborn Warning And Control System, AWACS)预警机，跟反潜 Z8 机群一起，以及052C, 054A 和 095 SSN 攻击核潜艇一起，反潜战能力还想要怎样啊？
i think the situtaion is far from ideal but not that critical, with long range armed Maritime patrol aircraft under development the situation will soon change
我认为情况远未乐观但也不是生死一线，随着远距武装海事巡逻机的开发情况会很快好转。
theres only one thing i think is of concern, lack of helos for the Navy, we will soon have more new ships than helos in PLAN, that is something they really need to addresss
只有一件事我很担心——缺少海军直升机。解放军马上会舰比机多，这是他们很需要着手解决的事情。
I think China should put on high priority the development of a NH-90 or Merlin sized helo designed specifically for the Navy, then deploying them in large numbers
我认为中国应该把研发 NH-90 或 Merlin 大小的海军专用直升机当作重点，然后大量部署。
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07-04-2012 #3
MwRYum
Senior Member Join Date Jul 2010
Posts 1,224
（香港人）
引用2楼：
“我认为中国应该把研发 NH-90 或 Merlin 大小的海军专用直升机当作重点，然后大量部署。”
If only they can domestically manufacture turbine engines of the same class and grade, with similar performance ratings, but they still unable to do so; in terms of helicopter models China has a class gap between the Z-9 and Z-8 (which those like the NH-90 or SH-60 would fit in): Z-9 is too small for an effective payload whereas Z-8 is too big for most PLAN surface combatants.
只要他们能自主生产同样级别和做工，相似的效能的涡轮引擎，但是他们现在依然不行；就直升机系列来说中国在 Z-9 和 Z-8 之间还缺少一个机型（跟 NH-90 或 SH-60一样就行）：Z9太小没有足够运载量而 Z-8 又太大，大多海军水面作战舰只搭载不下。
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07-04-2012 #4
plawolf
Senior Member Join Date Oct 2007
Posts 1,742
【红剑注，解放军之狼，牛逼的红裤衩，既能打败喷粪者，又能带动小白，逻辑论证能力一等一，等会你就知道了】
Is anyone able to find the reference section? Cannot seem to locate it for some reason...
有谁能找到上述参考文件吗？因为某种原因无法找到它们……
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07-04-2012 #5
wych
New Member Join Date Jul 2012
Posts 1
引用4楼：
“有谁能找到上述参考文件吗？因为某种原因无法找到它们……”
(Hi everyone.)
You can find the reference section at the end of the original article, which appeared in the Jamestown Foundation's China Brief July 29 2011 issue; (available & googlable online).
大家好
你们能从原文最后找到参考资料引用，Jamestown Foundation's China Brief 詹姆斯敦基金中国概况 2011年7月29日发布。（谷歌能找到）
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07-05-2012 #6
Geographer
Member Join Date Mar 2009
Posts 335
【红剑注，ID：地理学家，属于老外中比较理性的，以狼的眼睛审视中国的一举一动，不轻易被大众传媒影响，但绝对不是为了中国人民的幸福而存在的，老油条】
Why has the PLAN neglected ASW? Submarines are nothing new to East Asia. I guess helicopters are in very short supply, but there's no excuse for having so few maritime patrol aircraft and submarine chasing patrol boats.
为什么解放军海军要无视反潜呢？潜艇对于东亚来说又不是新鲜事物。我想因为直升机不够用是一条，但是这也不是仅有如此装备不足的一个海事巡逻机和猎潜艇部队的借口。
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07-05-2012 #7
plawolf
Senior Member
引用6楼：
“为什么解放军海军要无视反潜呢？潜艇对于东亚来说又不是新鲜事物。我想因为直升机不够用是一条，但是这也不是仅有如此装备不足的一个海事巡逻机和猎潜艇部队的借口。”
Well, I think the article Jeff linked does a fairly good analysis of the historical and practical reasons for this, with the most important factors being:
嗯，我想姐夫头头（楼主）链接的文章比较好的系统性的从历史和实用角度分析了这个问题，最重要影响因素如下：
- The vast gulf in capabilities between the PLA and potential adversaries until as late as a few years ago. It is only in the last 5 or so years that the PLAAF has grown strong enough to have a realistic chance of holding off enemy air power far enough out, and for long enough to allow things like AWACS and MPAs to operate with any degree of security. As the article pointed out, what is the point in investing vast sums and resources in a large MPA fleet if said fleet will get shot down as soon as they tried to do their job?
－ 解放军与其潜在敌人之间直到最近几年才（能现实面对的）实力的鸿沟。直到最近5年或者左右的时间，解放军空军才具有了把敌人的空中势力阻挡在足够远的范围以外的实力，从而可以能使自己的预警与反潜机能在这个区域内相对安全的运作。就像文章指出的，如果将大把的精力和资源投入到庞大的反潜机部队，而此部队一出门就会被击落，那又有何意义呢？
- The PLAN puts a great deal of emphasis on creative mine warfare, and they may well see that as sufficient to reducing enemy sub operations to a manageable level.
－ 解放军海军在创意性的水雷战上相当重视，而且他们很认为以此可以把敌人潜艇的活动限制到一个可以勉强接受的程度。
- The new evidence brought up by that article suggests that the PLAN may well have been following the odd adage that the best hunter of a sub is another sub.
－ 文章提出最新的证据暗示解放军可能遵从那句著名的谚语：最好的反潜手段就是另一艘潜艇。（最好的反XX手段就是另一个XX）
I feel that the article does not examine this aspect in as much detail as maybe it should. This may well be because they were looking at it from a US stand point instead of truly putting themselves in China's shoes.
我想这篇文章没有以应有的深度来检视这个角度，也许这正是因为他们是以美国的观点而不是真正站在中国的位置来看问题。
If a major conflict does break out, and the only likely example would be Taiwan, the PLAN would have a very specific mission in a relatively small area.
如果真有大型冲突爆发，而唯一可能就是台湾，那么解放军海军就会在一个相对较小的范围内执行一项相对固定的任务。【意思是说早就练好了】
In addition, it needs to be stressed that for China, even today, it's best defense against attack from a superior force like the USN is the economic co-dependancy between America and China. If hostilities does break out, it will be in everyone's interest to try and keep it as localized, contained and short-lived as possible.
另外需要特别指出对于中国来说，即使今天，其对抗一个像美国海军一样更优势的敌人的最好手段，依然是中美之间的经济互存矛盾。如果对抗真的发生，那么出于所有人的利益，最好把冲突控制在局部，可控，以及短期之内。
This means that initially at least, the Americans would not be looking at trying to cut off China's Sea Lines of Communication (SLC) by attacking merchant shipping, especially since the majority of that shipping will carrying manufactured goods destined for American and European shops, or the raw materials to make said goods.
这就意味着至少在最初期，美国不会想要掐断中国的 Sea Lines of Communication (SLC 或者SLOC) 海上交通线而攻击商船，尤其是当这些商船载着前往美国和欧洲的制造业商品或者制造这些商品的原材料的时候。
The PLAN has no hope of keeping China's sea lines open if the USN really wants to cut them off, so they don't even try to develop that capacity and instead make it such that America will be hurting itself as much as China if it went down that road.
解放军完全没有保持中国的海上交通线畅通的希望，如果美国海军真的想要掐断的话。所以他们甚至根本不去发展那种【红剑注，美国式海军建设的路子】能力而转而使得美国将像损伤中国一样的损伤美国自己，如果它走上那条道路的话。
Thus, the PLAN's ASW burden is massively reduced to where it only needs to be able to keep a relatively small section of the Chinese coast, namely the Taiwan Straits and it's immediate surrounding waters, free from enemy subs.
因此，解放军海军的反潜压力就极大的减轻为只需在一个相对较小的被称为台湾海峡的中国沿海范围和其周边海域，扫空敌潜艇。
In this context, the PLAN's preferred tactic of mine warfare and using it's large SSK fleet as mobile screens to lay and wait would have a far greater chance of success.
在这个背景下，解放军海军所善于的水雷战和其庞大的 SSK 柴电潜艇舰队做为活动水下扫描能力，坐等敌军入阵，要具有更大的成功性可能。
The PLAN's subs were never intended to out to sweep all enemy subs away like their USN counterparts. As far as they are concerned, USN subs can go anywhere they like and do whatever they liked so long as they do not enter the Taiwan straits to threaten the PLA landing forces.
解放军海军的潜艇根本就没打算像美国同行们一样以主动猎杀所有敌军为目的。以他们（解放军）的观点，美国潜艇可以在这个世界上任何地方做任何事情，只要不是跑台湾海峡来威胁登陆部队。
Something else to consider is that until the last decade or so, the PLAN actually did not really have many surface combatants worth sinking. Especially in the context of them operating in a heavily defended small stretch of water.
另外要考虑的是直到上一个十年左右，解放军海军根本就没有多少真正值得击沉的海面舰只，尤其是在这么一个小小的高度布防的海域。
When the PLAN only have Jianweis and the few Luhus, I think they would have happily traded one or more of those for a USN LA/Virgina or Seawolf. As such, all the PLAN would need to do is set up a perimeter patrolled by their SSKs, use lots of small landing craft so none would make for a good target and escort them with Jianweis and Luhus to provide point defense against shore based AShMs.
当解放军海军只有少数的江卫级和旅沪级的时候，我想他们会很乐于以一艘或者多艘损失比来交换美国一艘洛杉矶 / 弗吉尼亚级 或海狼级潜艇。如此，解放军海军所需要做的就是建立一个由柴电潜巡航构筑的防线，因为用小型登陆舰只所以没有一个值得攻击，再用江卫旅沪们护航提供对抗岸基 AShMs Anti-Ship Missiles 反舰导弹的点防御。
Even if an enemy SSN does manage to slip past the SSK sentries, as soon as it opens fire it will expose it's position and be effectively bottled in and have very little chance of getting out again alive. Would a USN sub skipper give the order to sink one or two ships, when he knows it won't matter one bit on the grand scheme of things, and that doing so would almost certainly mean he and his ship gets sunk in return? There would be no doubt if this was an invasion fleet heading for America, but would he do it for Taiwan? I have my doubts. But the point is, even if he does fire, the trade off still favours the PLAN.
即使敌人 SSN 攻击核潜艇真的成功穿透这层 SSK 柴电潜艇哨兵，一旦其开火就会暴露自己的位置而被有效包围猎歼从而很难有成功活着逃脱的机会。当美国潜艇舰长击沉一两艘舰船而他自己知道对于大局来说完全于事无补，而为此却几乎肯定要付出自己被击沉的代价时，他会发出这么做的命令吗？他们毫无疑问会这么做如果这是一支入侵美国的舰队，但是他们会为台湾这么做吗？我有疑虑。但是重点是，即使他真的开火，损失比也是极其有利于解放军。
Now, that might seem cruel and callouss, and you would be right. But that is the price of fighting a technologically superior foe. That is something America has not had to do since WWII, and I really don't think Americans today can easily get into that mindset and think that way and make those kind of calls.
这看上去有点残酷无情而且你是对的（真的是冷酷无情），但这是对抗一个科技实力远在自己之上的敌人的代价。那是美国自二战以后再未经历过的事情，而且我确实不认为今天的美国人能轻易变成那样的头脑，接受那种思考方式并作出那种决定。
It is only recently, now that tensions with Taiwan has receded and the PLA is confident that they could take the island no matter what, that the PLAN has started to set it's sights beyond Taiwan. That is the main driving force behind the recent massive build up of it's surface fleet, the acquisition of LPDs and carriers and possible LHDs, and it is only with this extended scope that the PLAN is looking at ASW anew.
直到最近，与台湾的紧张缓和而且解放军自信无论如何都能拿下台湾岛，直到这时解放军才开始把目光从台湾身上移开至更高层面。那正是最近几年大量水面舰只建造高潮的原因，取得船坞登陆舰，航母，以及可能的两栖攻击舰，而正是因为这些扩展的视野才使解放军对于反潜作战拥有全新看待的眼光。
However, it should still be stressed that it is important to look at this build up in terms of what the PLAN plans to do with it's new fleet and who it is aimed at.
然而，依然要强调的是看待解放军海军的新舰队的计划是什么以及他们的目标是谁。
The hawks, defense contracts and military in America automatically assumes that the build up is aimed at challenging America, or tries to make it seem that way as a means to drum up a threat to justify America's frankly ridiculously over-sized defense budget. But they would be wrong.
鹰派，防务承包商以及美国军方立即自动认为这种扩展是针对美国的挑战，或者让情况看起来像那样从而可以为美国事实上荒谬的超额军事预算敲起威胁论的战鼓。但是他们错了。
The PLAN will not be in a position to challenge the USN for supremacy of the oceans for decades to come if ever, because China does not see the justification for such massive spending on the military. Even when China's GDP is the same as America's China's defense spending will still be smaller because China spends about half as much in terms of GDP as America on defense, and I do not see that as changing much any time soon.
解放军海军于数十年内甚至永远将无法处于挑战美国海军大洋优势的位置上，因为中国不会认为像那种【美国那种】军事开销有正当理由。即使当中国的 GDP 与美国一样的时候中国的国防开支也依然会少得多。因为中国按 GDP 百分比国防开支只有美国一半，而且我不认为短期内会改变。
China's new fleet is aimed at protecting China's interest in South East Asia and Africa. If the PLAN ever uses it's fleet in anger, it will be to protect Chinese interests on Africa, or to slap down land grabs in the South China Sea like the PLAN has done before. Against those kinds of foes, the PLAN's current and projected ASW assets are just about passable. It is still an area that needs major investment, and the PLAN does recognize this, and seems to be doing the right things to address this deficiency. But in the context of the kinds of foes the PLAN might realistically face, it's ASW is not as quite as inadequate as it would seem at first glance.
中国的新舰队是着眼于保护中国在东南亚和非洲的利益。如果解放军哪天盛怒出兵，那将是保护中国在非洲的利益，或者像解放军曾经干过的一样，怒扇南海抢地者的耳光。对抗这样的敌人，解放军的现有和预期反潜能力尚能饭否，这是一个依然需要大量投入的领域而解放军也承认形势，看上去正在做出恶补缺漏的努力。但是对抗这种类型的解放军很现实可能面对的敌人，他的反潜能力并不如初瞥之下看上去那样完全不足。
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07-05-2012 #8
SampanViking
The Capitalist
Join Date Aug 2005 Location Bristol UK
Posts 1,383
【红剑注，维京舢板，“资本家”，大版主之一，没有什么法律规定版主不可以逻辑理性的畅所欲言自己的意见和对于事务的理解，在讨论话题的时候，版主就是一个普通发贴者，一个通常发表有建设性意义的帖子的发贴者】
It looks a s though Plawolf has largely shot my fox on this one.
看上去解放军之狼基本上把我的狐狸抢走了（基本上说完了我的论点）。
I still see China as a land power first and a maritime power only in the long term. Clearly the main maritime phase of China's military modernisation is only just starting to get going and the PLAN is nowhere near being realistically capable of going head to head against the USN far beyond territorial waters.
我依然把中国先视为陆权强国而后再从长远来视为海权强权。显然中国的海事现代化进程才刚刚起步而解放军海军除了在其近海以外还完全远离那个与美国海军针锋相对的位置。
In that sense, spending money on something expensive like capable ASW systems would be premature and diverting resources away from where they can be better spent.
As others have noted, ASW is a capability to develop for the coming decades, once a navy is in place that warrants the protection.
依此考量，在昂贵的可靠反潜系统上投入太多恰恰是不成熟的和南辕北辙于正应该关键投入建设的领域。
正如大家注意到的，反潜能力是下个十年的建设纲领，当有一支足够值得保护的海军成型的时候。
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07-05-2012 #9
asif iqbal
Junior Member
i think a point is also being missed here
我认为这里大家也忽视了一点
no doubt all this is for war, but like in the Cold War, world Navys do tit for tat all the time, they always play cat and mouse with each other and through these games in peacetime you make or break respect for ones opponents
毫无疑问这（建设海军）是为了备战，但是就像冷战一样，世界各地海军一直就是针尖对麦芒，他们各自互相玩猫和老鼠的游戏，而通过这些和平时期的斗争，你取得或失去你对手的尊敬。
China will very soon find itself playing these games with its foes and friends, and when it does it has to be prepared to make a impact, otherwise its drawsbacks and weaknesses will be descovered and that is something China cant afford
中国很快就会发现自己将要和自己的敌人和朋友玩这种游戏，而当他这么做时，他最好有所应对并有所斩获，否则他的缺点和不足将会被人发现，而那是中国无法负担的一种事情。
the last thing you want is to be building up ur capability and then when it comes to test time you are let down, US and China will never go to war, but Cold War style engagments will be something of teh future and China needs to be prepared for it
你最不希望见到的事情是你辛苦建设起来的能力到了要用时经受不住考验，美国与中国永远不会步入战争，但是冷战式样的 engagement 接触 将是必然，而中国最好能有所准备。
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【红剑出鞘】北京（终于）直面反潜顽疾龙腾网版权所有 http://www.ltaaa.com
Beijing Confronts Long-Standing Weakness in ASW
龙腾网版权所有 http://www.ltaaa.com龙腾网版权所有 http://www.ltaaa.com
原帖地址：
http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/navy/beijing-confronts-long-standing-weakness-asw-6068.html
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07-04-2012 #1
Jeff Head
Senior Member
Join Date Sep 2005
Location Idaho - Beautiful Rocky Mountains
Posts 3,758
【红剑注，姐夫头头，此网友至少5,60几岁了，美国海军退伍老兵，优秀的CG制图者，中国网络上传开的瓦良格航母高清CG透视图的原始作者；优秀的模型制作者；类似于汤姆·克兰西一样的正在架空YY军事小说创造的道路上越陷越深的业余作家，著有描述美国与西方联合起来对抗中国和阿拉子民的进攻的YY小说 DRAGON'S FURY 龙之怒，并且已经以此盈利无数，有自己的专业军事资料网站—— www.jeffhead.com 手里关于中国人民解放军的完备资料也许会让“中国男人某某某”都流冷汗。
Mr. Head is a member of the Sons of the American Revolution and a member of the U.S. Naval Institute. He worked as a designer, manager, director, and consultant for over twenty-five years in the defense, nuclear power, and computer industries where he was involved in various engineering, support, and management capacities. Projects he has been involed with have included the A-7 attack aircraft program, the MLRS (Multiple Launch Rocket System) program, the San Onofre Nuclear Power Project, the South Texas Nuclear Power Project, and the Theater High Altitude Air Defense System (THAADS).
头头先生是一个“美国革命之子”美国爱国主义教育基地成员和美国海军研究所成员。他在防务，核能，电脑工业以设计者，经理，主管和顾问的身份在多项工程，支持和管理岗位上工作了25年。参与了如下工程：A-7攻击机项目，(Multiple Launch Rocket System) MLRS 项目，San Onofre 核能项目，南得克萨斯州核能项目，Theater High Altitude Air Defense System 战区高空空防系统 (THAADS) 项目。
详见 http://www.jeffhead.com/about.htm】
引用 Intelligence Quarterly 《情报季刊》 文章：Beijing Confronts Long-Standing Weakness in ASW 北京（终于）直面反潜顽疾
原文刊于2011年8月1日
http://www.intelligencequarterly.com/2011/08/beijing-confronts-long-standing-weakness-in-anti-submarine-warfare/
【注意下面这张图，非常有深意】
以下引用文章：
Observers of China’s naval development generally accept that Chinese anti-submarine warfare (ASW) remains an Achilles’ Heel of the otherwise highly methodical and quite remarkable evolution of Chinese maritime power. While Beijing will soon be able to boast about its first aircraft carrier and continues to upgrade an already respectable array of lethal anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs), the Chinese fleet nevertheless remains acutely vulnerable to submarine attack. The July 2011 issue ofXiandai Jianchuan [Modern Ships] ran under the cover story of “The ASW Crisis of China’s Aircraft Carrier,” suggesting Chinese naval analysts appreciate this weakness. Moreover, a Chinese Navy captain writing in the same journal demonstrated the PLA Navy’s concern with the U.S. Navy submarine force when he described the deployment of one of America’s newest nuclear attack submarines to the western Pacific as an “event of no small significance” for the regional security situation.
观察中国海军发展的观察家们基本上公认——对于高度有条不紊的超然进化的中国海上力量来说，Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW)反潜作战能力，就是其长堤蚁穴，墙根松砖和木桶短板。【中国翻译，就是不用“阿基里斯之踝”这种六个字的拗口舶来品，怎么着？】当北京即将耀武扬威地推出它的第一艘航母并继续在业已致命的 Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles (ASCM) 反舰巡航导弹 的征途上越走越远时，中国舰队依然深深受到潜艇的威胁。2011年7月的《现代舰船》封面故事——“中国航母的反潜危机” 透露出中国海军分析人士也认同这个缺陷。此外，一位中国海军 舰长（或者上校？captain）在同期杂志中的撰文提到美国最新型核攻击潜艇在西太平洋的部署是对于地区安全“不可忽视的一件事情”，展示了解放军海军对于美国海军潜艇力量的担忧。
Symbolic of China’s major weakness in ASW, Beijing seems to have less than a dozen maritime patrol aircraft (MPA)—the ASW workhorse of most advanced navies. No wonder the submarine market in East and South Asia has been so dynamic over the last decade, as smaller neighbors, such as Vietnam, and other regional competitors, such as Australia, reach for an answer to China’s naval buildup. Based on recent Chinese naval writings, Chinese defense analysts are quite concerned about the challenge foreign submarines may pose to Chinese maritime interests and ambitions. Indeed, available evidence suggests China is laying the foundation for a considerably more advanced ASW capability that could emerge one or two decades hence.
中国反潜实力的标志性缺陷——北京手里只有少于一打的 Maritime Patrol Aircraft (MPA) 海事巡逻机——大多数先进海军国家的反潜作战的生力军。当小一点的邻居，如越南，或者区域竞争对手，如澳大利亚，皆上下求索于解答中国海军扩张的难题时，难怪东亚和东南亚最近十年的潜艇市场异常火爆。基于近期中国海军的文章，中国防务分析家们对于外国潜艇对中国海事利益和野心的挑战，相当忧心。是的，有证据证明中国正在为未来10到20年的更加先进的反潜作战能力埋下伏笔。
————以上引用（部分原文，全篇请移步原始链接）。
Among many other items in this article, they talk about a PLAN "<i>qianshe fanqian daodan</i>" rocket launched ASW weapon for the Song Class SS vessels.
在众多关于解放军海军的文章中，他们提到一种“潜射反舰导弹”【目测，拼音坑爹】的从宋级常规潜艇火箭反射的反潜武器。
I am not aware of the specs for this weapon, but apparently there is something for the subs which would beg the question as to whether the PLAN have developed a surface vessel launched version.
我对于此武器规格不明了，但是显然既然有潜射型，就带出了到底有没有舰射型的问题。
The reference for the discussion regarding that weapon is this:
关于这款武器的讨论引用如下（引用《情报季刊》）：
Chen Guangwen, “Bu sheng zhuo ying: zhongguo haijun fanqian zhanli de fazhan” [Catching a Sound to Seize a Shadow: Development of China's ASW Combat Power] Jianzai wuqi [Shipborne Weapons], December 2010, p. 25
陈广文（音译），《扑风捉影：中国海军反潜战力的发展》【目测，拼音坑爹】，《舰载武器》2010年12月期，25页。【希望中国网友学习学习这种严谨的考据精神，好的考据，始于优秀的引用参考资料注释的格式】
Which I have not been able to obtain and read in English yet. Anyone familiar with it? Franko-Russe, Tphuang, etc?
我还没有找到英文版（的消息）。有人熟悉吗？Franko-Russe, Tphuang,?（叫了几个考据党网友的名字）
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07-04-2012 #2
asif iqbal （中巴友好的苏格兰人）
Junior Member Join Date Apr 2006
Location Scotland
Posts 900
nice find Jeff, just one question, where is that picture taken, a Z9C with a Tico in the background? what was going on there
找的好Jeff，只是一个小问题，那张照片哪里照的？前面Z9C后面提康德罗加？发生什么事了？
I always said the best way to fight submarine is to deploy your own killer attack submarine, everything else is just a aid
我总是说，最好的反潜手段就是部署你自己的反潜潜艇，其他手段都只是辅助。
amd i think some people need to give China just a little bit of time, let them grow for heavens sake
我认为有些人应该给中国一点时间，让他们成长！我靠！【红剑注：海外很多红裤衩嫌中国进步速度还不够快】
anyhow MPA is in the works we have already seen the pics
不管怎样海事巡逻机已经着手了，我们已经看到过图片了。
Z15 medium lift helo is in the works which will bring advantage over Z9C
Z15中型载重直升机已经着手了，会带来超逾Z9C的优势
towed array sonars are also now evident but i am not sure about bigger and more advanced hull based sonars?
拖曳声纳也已证据确凿但是我不太确定关于更大更先进的舰身声纳？
current Type 056 dont have hangers but may do in the future, even if they do they will only manage a Z9C sized helo, how they are geared for ASW i am not quite sure, have we seen TAS on them? they wont hold much of a hull based sonar because of their size, plus they will be used for close shore patrol not as escorts
现在的056型还没有机库但也许以后会有，即使有也只能是Z9C的大小，它们为反潜是如何配置的我不熟，我们有看到上面有装拖曳声纳(TAS)吗？基于它们的大小，它们不可能装下太大的舰身声纳，另它们会用于近岸巡逻而不是（远洋舰队）护航。
when ex-Varyag is deployed hopefully it will have a carrier based AWACS, along with ASW Z8 air wing, in addition to Type 052C, Type 054A and a Type 095 SSN, what more anti-submarine warfare do they want?
当 前瓦良格 部署时希望她有舰载(Airborn Warning And Control System, AWACS)预警机，跟反潜 Z8 机群一起，以及052C, 054A 和 095 SSN 攻击核潜艇一起，反潜战能力还想要怎样啊？
i think the situtaion is far from ideal but not that critical, with long range armed Maritime patrol aircraft under development the situation will soon change
我认为情况远未乐观但也不是生死一线，随着远距武装海事巡逻机的开发情况会很快好转。
theres only one thing i think is of concern, lack of helos for the Navy, we will soon have more new ships than helos in PLAN, that is something they really need to addresss
只有一件事我很担心——缺少海军直升机。解放军马上会舰比机多，这是他们很需要着手解决的事情。
I think China should put on high priority the development of a NH-90 or Merlin sized helo designed specifically for the Navy, then deploying them in large numbers
我认为中国应该把研发 NH-90 或 Merlin 大小的海军专用直升机当作重点，然后大量部署。
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07-04-2012 #3
MwRYum
Senior Member Join Date Jul 2010
Posts 1,224
（香港人）
引用2楼：
“我认为中国应该把研发 NH-90 或 Merlin 大小的海军专用直升机当作重点，然后大量部署。”
If only they can domestically manufacture turbine engines of the same class and grade, with similar performance ratings, but they still unable to do so; in terms of helicopter models China has a class gap between the Z-9 and Z-8 (which those like the NH-90 or SH-60 would fit in): Z-9 is too small for an effective payload whereas Z-8 is too big for most PLAN surface combatants.
只要他们能自主生产同样级别和做工，相似的效能的涡轮引擎，但是他们现在依然不行；就直升机系列来说中国在 Z-9 和 Z-8 之间还缺少一个机型（跟 NH-90 或 SH-60一样就行）：Z9太小没有足够运载量而 Z-8 又太大，大多海军水面作战舰只搭载不下。
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07-04-2012 #4
plawolf
Senior Member Join Date Oct 2007
Posts 1,742
【红剑注，解放军之狼，牛逼的红裤衩，既能打败喷粪者，又能带动小白，逻辑论证能力一等一，等会你就知道了】
Is anyone able to find the reference section? Cannot seem to locate it for some reason...
有谁能找到上述参考文件吗？因为某种原因无法找到它们……
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07-04-2012 #5
wych
New Member Join Date Jul 2012
Posts 1
引用4楼：
“有谁能找到上述参考文件吗？因为某种原因无法找到它们……”
(Hi everyone.)
You can find the reference section at the end of the original article, which appeared in the Jamestown Foundation's China Brief July 29 2011 issue; (available & googlable online).
大家好
你们能从原文最后找到参考资料引用，Jamestown Foundation's China Brief 詹姆斯敦基金中国概况 2011年7月29日发布。（谷歌能找到）
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07-05-2012 #6
Geographer
Member Join Date Mar 2009
Posts 335
【红剑注，ID：地理学家，属于老外中比较理性的，以狼的眼睛审视中国的一举一动，不轻易被大众传媒影响，但绝对不是为了中国人民的幸福而存在的，老油条】
Why has the PLAN neglected ASW? Submarines are nothing new to East Asia. I guess helicopters are in very short supply, but there's no excuse for having so few maritime patrol aircraft and submarine chasing patrol boats.
为什么解放军海军要无视反潜呢？潜艇对于东亚来说又不是新鲜事物。我想因为直升机不够用是一条，但是这也不是仅有如此装备不足的一个海事巡逻机和猎潜艇部队的借口。
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07-05-2012 #7
plawolf
Senior Member
引用6楼：
“为什么解放军海军要无视反潜呢？潜艇对于东亚来说又不是新鲜事物。我想因为直升机不够用是一条，但是这也不是仅有如此装备不足的一个海事巡逻机和猎潜艇部队的借口。”
Well, I think the article Jeff linked does a fairly good analysis of the historical and practical reasons for this, with the most important factors being:
嗯，我想姐夫头头（楼主）链接的文章比较好的系统性的从历史和实用角度分析了这个问题，最重要影响因素如下：
- The vast gulf in capabilities between the PLA and potential adversaries until as late as a few years ago. It is only in the last 5 or so years that the PLAAF has grown strong enough to have a realistic chance of holding off enemy air power far enough out, and for long enough to allow things like AWACS and MPAs to operate with any degree of security. As the article pointed out, what is the point in investing vast sums and resources in a large MPA fleet if said fleet will get shot down as soon as they tried to do their job?
－ 解放军与其潜在敌人之间直到最近几年才（能现实面对的）实力的鸿沟。直到最近5年或者左右的时间，解放军空军才具有了把敌人的空中势力阻挡在足够远的范围以外的实力，从而可以能使自己的预警与反潜机能在这个区域内相对安全的运作。就像文章指出的，如果将大把的精力和资源投入到庞大的反潜机部队，而此部队一出门就会被击落，那又有何意义呢？
- The PLAN puts a great deal of emphasis on creative mine warfare, and they may well see that as sufficient to reducing enemy sub operations to a manageable level.
－ 解放军海军在创意性的水雷战上相当重视，而且他们很认为以此可以把敌人潜艇的活动限制到一个可以勉强接受的程度。
- The new evidence brought up by that article suggests that the PLAN may well have been following the odd adage that the best hunter of a sub is another sub.
－ 文章提出最新的证据暗示解放军可能遵从那句著名的谚语：最好的反潜手段就是另一艘潜艇。（最好的反XX手段就是另一个XX）
I feel that the article does not examine this aspect in as much detail as maybe it should. This may well be because they were looking at it from a US stand point instead of truly putting themselves in China's shoes.
我想这篇文章没有以应有的深度来检视这个角度，也许这正是因为他们是以美国的观点而不是真正站在中国的位置来看问题。
If a major conflict does break out, and the only likely example would be Taiwan, the PLAN would have a very specific mission in a relatively small area.
如果真有大型冲突爆发，而唯一可能就是台湾，那么解放军海军就会在一个相对较小的范围内执行一项相对固定的任务。【意思是说早就练好了】
In addition, it needs to be stressed that for China, even today, it's best defense against attack from a superior force like the USN is the economic co-dependancy between America and China. If hostilities does break out, it will be in everyone's interest to try and keep it as localized, contained and short-lived as possible.
另外需要特别指出对于中国来说，即使今天，其对抗一个像美国海军一样更优势的敌人的最好手段，依然是中美之间的经济互存矛盾。如果对抗真的发生，那么出于所有人的利益，最好把冲突控制在局部，可控，以及短期之内。
This means that initially at least, the Americans would not be looking at trying to cut off China's Sea Lines of Communication (SLC) by attacking merchant shipping, especially since the majority of that shipping will carrying manufactured goods destined for American and European shops, or the raw materials to make said goods.
这就意味着至少在最初期，美国不会想要掐断中国的 Sea Lines of Communication (SLC 或者SLOC) 海上交通线而攻击商船，尤其是当这些商船载着前往美国和欧洲的制造业商品或者制造这些商品的原材料的时候。
The PLAN has no hope of keeping China's sea lines open if the USN really wants to cut them off, so they don't even try to develop that capacity and instead make it such that America will be hurting itself as much as China if it went down that road.
解放军完全没有保持中国的海上交通线畅通的希望，如果美国海军真的想要掐断的话。所以他们甚至根本不去发展那种【红剑注，美国式海军建设的路子】能力而转而使得美国将像损伤中国一样的损伤美国自己，如果它走上那条道路的话。
Thus, the PLAN's ASW burden is massively reduced to where it only needs to be able to keep a relatively small section of the Chinese coast, namely the Taiwan Straits and it's immediate surrounding waters, free from enemy subs.
因此，解放军海军的反潜压力就极大的减轻为只需在一个相对较小的被称为台湾海峡的中国沿海范围和其周边海域，扫空敌潜艇。
In this context, the PLAN's preferred tactic of mine warfare and using it's large SSK fleet as mobile screens to lay and wait would have a far greater chance of success.
在这个背景下，解放军海军所善于的水雷战和其庞大的 SSK 柴电潜艇舰队做为活动水下扫描能力，坐等敌军入阵，要具有更大的成功性可能。
The PLAN's subs were never intended to out to sweep all enemy subs away like their USN counterparts. As far as they are concerned, USN subs can go anywhere they like and do whatever they liked so long as they do not enter the Taiwan straits to threaten the PLA landing forces.
解放军海军的潜艇根本就没打算像美国同行们一样以主动猎杀所有敌军为目的。以他们（解放军）的观点，美国潜艇可以在这个世界上任何地方做任何事情，只要不是跑台湾海峡来威胁登陆部队。
Something else to consider is that until the last decade or so, the PLAN actually did not really have many surface combatants worth sinking. Especially in the context of them operating in a heavily defended small stretch of water.
另外要考虑的是直到上一个十年左右，解放军海军根本就没有多少真正值得击沉的海面舰只，尤其是在这么一个小小的高度布防的海域。
When the PLAN only have Jianweis and the few Luhus, I think they would have happily traded one or more of those for a USN LA/Virgina or Seawolf. As such, all the PLAN would need to do is set up a perimeter patrolled by their SSKs, use lots of small landing craft so none would make for a good target and escort them with Jianweis and Luhus to provide point defense against shore based AShMs.
当解放军海军只有少数的江卫级和旅沪级的时候，我想他们会很乐于以一艘或者多艘损失比来交换美国一艘洛杉矶 / 弗吉尼亚级 或海狼级潜艇。如此，解放军海军所需要做的就是建立一个由柴电潜巡航构筑的防线，因为用小型登陆舰只所以没有一个值得攻击，再用江卫旅沪们护航提供对抗岸基 AShMs Anti-Ship Missiles 反舰导弹的点防御。
Even if an enemy SSN does manage to slip past the SSK sentries, as soon as it opens fire it will expose it's position and be effectively bottled in and have very little chance of getting out again alive. Would a USN sub skipper give the order to sink one or two ships, when he knows it won't matter one bit on the grand scheme of things, and that doing so would almost certainly mean he and his ship gets sunk in return? There would be no doubt if this was an invasion fleet heading for America, but would he do it for Taiwan? I have my doubts. But the point is, even if he does fire, the trade off still favours the PLAN.
即使敌人 SSN 攻击核潜艇真的成功穿透这层 SSK 柴电潜艇哨兵，一旦其开火就会暴露自己的位置而被有效包围猎歼从而很难有成功活着逃脱的机会。当美国潜艇舰长击沉一两艘舰船而他自己知道对于大局来说完全于事无补，而为此却几乎肯定要付出自己被击沉的代价时，他会发出这么做的命令吗？他们毫无疑问会这么做如果这是一支入侵美国的舰队，但是他们会为台湾这么做吗？我有疑虑。但是重点是，即使他真的开火，损失比也是极其有利于解放军。
Now, that might seem cruel and callouss, and you would be right. But that is the price of fighting a technologically superior foe. That is something America has not had to do since WWII, and I really don't think Americans today can easily get into that mindset and think that way and make those kind of calls.
这看上去有点残酷无情而且你是对的（真的是冷酷无情），但这是对抗一个科技实力远在自己之上的敌人的代价。那是美国自二战以后再未经历过的事情，而且我确实不认为今天的美国人能轻易变成那样的头脑，接受那种思考方式并作出那种决定。
It is only recently, now that tensions with Taiwan has receded and the PLA is confident that they could take the island no matter what, that the PLAN has started to set it's sights beyond Taiwan. That is the main driving force behind the recent massive build up of it's surface fleet, the acquisition of LPDs and carriers and possible LHDs, and it is only with this extended scope that the PLAN is looking at ASW anew.
直到最近，与台湾的紧张缓和而且解放军自信无论如何都能拿下台湾岛，直到这时解放军才开始把目光从台湾身上移开至更高层面。那正是最近几年大量水面舰只建造高潮的原因，取得船坞登陆舰，航母，以及可能的两栖攻击舰，而正是因为这些扩展的视野才使解放军对于反潜作战拥有全新看待的眼光。
However, it should still be stressed that it is important to look at this build up in terms of what the PLAN plans to do with it's new fleet and who it is aimed at.
然而，依然要强调的是看待解放军海军的新舰队的计划是什么以及他们的目标是谁。
The hawks, defense contracts and military in America automatically assumes that the build up is aimed at challenging America, or tries to make it seem that way as a means to drum up a threat to justify America's frankly ridiculously over-sized defense budget. But they would be wrong.
鹰派，防务承包商以及美国军方立即自动认为这种扩展是针对美国的挑战，或者让情况看起来像那样从而可以为美国事实上荒谬的超额军事预算敲起威胁论的战鼓。但是他们错了。
The PLAN will not be in a position to challenge the USN for supremacy of the oceans for decades to come if ever, because China does not see the justification for such massive spending on the military. Even when China's GDP is the same as America's China's defense spending will still be smaller because China spends about half as much in terms of GDP as America on defense, and I do not see that as changing much any time soon.
解放军海军于数十年内甚至永远将无法处于挑战美国海军大洋优势的位置上，因为中国不会认为像那种【美国那种】军事开销有正当理由。即使当中国的 GDP 与美国一样的时候中国的国防开支也依然会少得多。因为中国按 GDP 百分比国防开支只有美国一半，而且我不认为短期内会改变。
China's new fleet is aimed at protecting China's interest in South East Asia and Africa. If the PLAN ever uses it's fleet in anger, it will be to protect Chinese interests on Africa, or to slap down land grabs in the South China Sea like the PLAN has done before. Against those kinds of foes, the PLAN's current and projected ASW assets are just about passable. It is still an area that needs major investment, and the PLAN does recognize this, and seems to be doing the right things to address this deficiency. But in the context of the kinds of foes the PLAN might realistically face, it's ASW is not as quite as inadequate as it would seem at first glance.
中国的新舰队是着眼于保护中国在东南亚和非洲的利益。如果解放军哪天盛怒出兵，那将是保护中国在非洲的利益，或者像解放军曾经干过的一样，怒扇南海抢地者的耳光。对抗这样的敌人，解放军的现有和预期反潜能力尚能饭否，这是一个依然需要大量投入的领域而解放军也承认形势，看上去正在做出恶补缺漏的努力。但是对抗这种类型的解放军很现实可能面对的敌人，他的反潜能力并不如初瞥之下看上去那样完全不足。
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07-05-2012 #8
SampanViking
The Capitalist
Join Date Aug 2005 Location Bristol UK
Posts 1,383
【红剑注，维京舢板，“资本家”，大版主之一，没有什么法律规定版主不可以逻辑理性的畅所欲言自己的意见和对于事务的理解，在讨论话题的时候，版主就是一个普通发贴者，一个通常发表有建设性意义的帖子的发贴者】
It looks a s though Plawolf has largely shot my fox on this one.
看上去解放军之狼基本上把我的狐狸抢走了（基本上说完了我的论点）。
I still see China as a land power first and a maritime power only in the long term. Clearly the main maritime phase of China's military modernisation is only just starting to get going and the PLAN is nowhere near being realistically capable of going head to head against the USN far beyond territorial waters.
我依然把中国先视为陆权强国而后再从长远来视为海权强权。显然中国的海事现代化进程才刚刚起步而解放军海军除了在其近海以外还完全远离那个与美国海军针锋相对的位置。
In that sense, spending money on something expensive like capable ASW systems would be premature and diverting resources away from where they can be better spent.
As others have noted, ASW is a capability to develop for the coming decades, once a navy is in place that warrants the protection.
依此考量，在昂贵的可靠反潜系统上投入太多恰恰是不成熟的和南辕北辙于正应该关键投入建设的领域。
正如大家注意到的，反潜能力是下个十年的建设纲领，当有一支足够值得保护的海军成型的时候。
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07-05-2012 #9
asif iqbal
Junior Member
i think a point is also being missed here
我认为这里大家也忽视了一点
no doubt all this is for war, but like in the Cold War, world Navys do tit for tat all the time, they always play cat and mouse with each other and through these games in peacetime you make or break respect for ones opponents
毫无疑问这（建设海军）是为了备战，但是就像冷战一样，世界各地海军一直就是针尖对麦芒，他们各自互相玩猫和老鼠的游戏，而通过这些和平时期的斗争，你取得或失去你对手的尊敬。
China will very soon find itself playing these games with its foes and friends, and when it does it has to be prepared to make a impact, otherwise its drawsbacks and weaknesses will be descovered and that is something China cant afford
中国很快就会发现自己将要和自己的敌人和朋友玩这种游戏，而当他这么做时，他最好有所应对并有所斩获，否则他的缺点和不足将会被人发现，而那是中国无法负担的一种事情。
the last thing you want is to be building up ur capability and then when it comes to test time you are let down, US and China will never go to war, but Cold War style engagments will be something of teh future and China needs to be prepared for it
你最不希望见到的事情是你辛苦建设起来的能力到了要用时经受不住考验，美国与中国永远不会步入战争，但是冷战式样的 engagement 接触 将是必然，而中国最好能有所准备。
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07-05-2012 #10
Jeff Head
Senior Member
引用7楼：
“我想这篇文章没有以应有的深度来检视这个角度”
Ageed. but not for the reasons you state. I think that they just did not have enough info on the real capabilities of the Yuan and new SSNs.
同意，但不是你列举的那些原因。我想它们（杂志）仅仅是没有足够的关于元级和新核攻击潜艇的真实资料。
引用7楼：
“如果真有大型冲突爆发，而唯一可能就是台湾，那么解放军海军就会在一个相对较小的范围内执行一项相对固定的任务。
另外需要特别指出对于中国来说，即使今天，其对抗一个像美国海军一样更优势的敌人的最好手段，依然是中美之间的经济互存矛盾。如果对抗真的发生，那么出于所有人的利益，最好把冲突控制在局部，可控，以及短期之内。
因此，解放军海军的反潜压力就极大的减轻为只需在一个相对较小的被称为台湾海峡的中国沿海范围和其周边海域，扫空敌潜艇。”
Ageed.
同意。【尼玛领导批示就是不一样】
引用7楼：
“即使敌人 SSN 攻击核潜艇真的成功穿透这层 SSK 柴电潜艇哨兵，一旦其开火就会暴露自己的位置而被有效包围猎歼从而很难有成功活着逃脱的机会。当美国潜艇舰长击沉一两艘舰船而他自己知道对于大局来说完全于事无补，而为此却几乎肯定要付出自己被击沉的代价时，他会执行这么做的命令吗？他们毫无疑问会这么做如果这是一支入侵美国的舰队，但是他们会为台湾这么做吗？我有疑虑。但是重点是，即使他真的开火，损失比也是极其有利于解放军。”
The America skipper will follow orders, and if those orders are to get pass the SS s and sink segments of the invasion fleet, he will pick the highest value targets and do so and then try to egress...thaat is, if he has to egress.
美国舰长会忠实履行命令，而如果命令是穿越柴电潜网并击沉一部分入侵舰队，他会挑最有价值目标下手，然后设法潜逃……如果他需要潜逃的话。
引用7楼：
“这看上去有点残酷无情而且你是对的（真的是冷酷无情），但这是对抗一个科技实力远在自己之上的敌人的代价。那是美国自二战以后再未经历过的事情，而且我确实不认为今天的美国人能轻易变成那样的头脑，接受那种思考方式并作出那种决定。”
Technically superior in the sense that they have high quality and technologically advanced equipment...not in the sense that they are nesessarily superior to the US. And I will say again, the US Naval officer corps and carreer NCOs are very disciplined and very dedicated. They will follow orders.
技术上来说“优势”是指的拥有高质量和高科技的装备……并不是说他们一定比美国优秀。而我要再说一次，美国海军军官团和职业军士团们是高度纪律和专注投入的，他们会执行命令。
The real question is, whether the US subs can get out of there once they inflict the maximum damage they can.
真正的问题是，美国潜艇能不能潜逃生天，一旦他们（对解放军）实施了最大程度打击以后。
In all likelihood, they wont have to. Their strategy will be to deal with the undersea threat first.
对于所有的可能性来说，他们（美军）不需要（潜逃）。他们的策略是先解决海底威胁。
The likely strategy for the US will be to respond with massive force using 20 or more nuclear attack subs to clear the straits of PLAN subs. With those types of numbers, with the types of training they already perform, regularly, and with the equipment and weapons they have...this will be the real challenge for the PLAN...to avoid this. I do not think at this moment they will be able to. No doubt it will be a visious fight under the waves...but the US simply has too many advanced, very quiet nuclear attack subs and the Straits are too small to effectively hide from a pincer the likes of which that the US will likely set up, using blocking forces of even more subs to prevent any PLAN reinforcements from coming to the aid of those that get trapped in the Straits.
美国可能的反应策略是召集一支20艘以上的庞大核攻击潜艇部队清除台湾海峡的解放军潜艇。拥有那样的规模，那样的长期战备训练，那样的装备和武器……这将是解放军海军的真正的挑战……来避免（被美军清除出台湾海峡）。我不认为现阶段他们（解放军）可以（避免）。无可否认这将会是一场水底恶战……但美国就是拥有太多优势，非常安静的核攻击潜艇；对于有效躲过美国有可能会部署的声监探测手段，海峡太狭小；用更多的拦阻潜艇部队来阻止解放军增援业已被陷于海峡的潜艇。
The PLAN will have to build more and better AIP SSs and more quiet SSNs to be able to defend against those numbers.
解放军海军需要建造更多 AIP SS, Air-Independent Powered SS, 空气独立动力电潜和更安静的攻击核潜，才有可能抵挡那样的数量攻势。
引用7楼：
“解放军海军于数十年内甚至永远将无法处于挑战美国海军大洋优势的位置上，因为中国不会认为像那种【美国那种】军事开销有正当理由。即使当中国的 GDP 与美国一样的时候中国的国防开支也依然会少得多因为中国按 GDP 百分比国防开支只有美国一半，而且我不认为短期内会改变。
中国的新舰队是着眼于保护中国在东南亚和非洲的利益。如果解放军哪天盛怒出兵，那将是保护中国在非洲的利益，或者像解放军曾经干过的一样，怒扇南海抢地者的耳光。对抗这样的敌人，解放军的现有和预期反潜能力尚能饭否，这是一个依然需要大量投入的领域而解放军也承认形势，看上去正在做出恶补缺漏的努力。但是对抗这种类型的解放军很现实可能面对的敌人，他的反潜能力并不如初瞥之下看上去那样完全不足。”
Agreed if it is not the US or pulls the US in. But with the numbers of SSNs and DDGs the US has (which will be near 60 or more of each), the PLAN still needs to progress in my opinion to be able to pull it off successfully aganist a determined US aministration. Now...outside of the military technology, a LOT will depend on who occupies the Whie House and the PRC knows this full well...just as Putin and other leaders do.
如果说的不是美国或者被拖下水的美国，同意。但是随着美国拥有的核攻击潜艇和驱逐舰（每种都达到或者超过60艘），依我的见解当面对一个下定决心的美国政府班子的时候解放军依然需要大力发展才能成功达成这么一件事情【7楼说的解放军海军今后任务这件事情】。然而……除去军事科技之外，很大程度 将取决于谁将占据白宫的位置，PRC很清楚这一点……就像普京和其他领导人一样。
【老海军随大势也要吐槽一下美国大选话题……】
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07-06-2012 #11
kwaigonegin
Member Join Date Sep 2010
Posts 488
引用8楼全文
The reason ASW has been 'neglected' is not because you see China as a land power BUT because most Chinese see
China as a land power. That may be true for the past 2000 years of Chinese civilizations but it is less true
today. Everyone here knows the might of the Chinese naval forces 3, 4 500, years ago.. naval historians even
believe they are mightier than the European powers BUT unlike the European naval powers the Chinese ones never
really got into any big or at least historically significant naval battles.
反潜能力被“忽视”的原因不是因为你把中国当成一个陆权强国 而是 大多数中国人把中国当作一个陆权强国。这在过去2000年
里的中华文明也许是真理但是在今天越来越不是这样。这里的每个人都知道中国海军3，4或者500年前的强盛……海军历史学家们
认为可能比欧洲海权还要强大， 但是 不像欧洲人一样中国人没有真正步入任何大型或者历史显著意义的海战之中。
I think that plays a role in the 'psychii' of China today concentrating mainly on air and land... they are
obviously ramping up their naval capabilities BUT ASW remains the red headed step child. The keyword is SLOCs and
trade routes which is obviously vital to China's economic intereast and that is probably one of the reasons for
the significant expansion in PLAN
我想那个事实在今日中国的潜意识里起作用主要只考虑天空和陆地……显然他们在调整他们的海军实力 但是 反潜依然是后妈的
孩子没人疼。关键词就是 SLOC 海上交通线和贸易航线，显然对于中国的经济利益至关重要而显然是解放军海军大肆扩展的能力
之一。
I think part of it is ASW is one of those areas of defense that only matters when it comes to actual total war.
Unless Somali pirates or other 'rogue' nations is arming themselves with sophisticated boats, I think China
realizes that at this time in history no nation who has any significant submarine fleet is planning on sinking
any PLAN or cargo ships in peacetime or even in time of tension short of full scale war and that's why it has
been neglected until now.
我想部分原因是反潜作战是只在真正的全面战争时期才是重要的防御方向。除非索马里海盗或者其他“流氓”国家以高精尖潜艇
武装起来，否则我认为中国认识到在现在这个历史时期，拥有真正规模的潜艇舰队的国家没有人会向解放军海军或者货船进攻，
无论和平时期或者甚至除了全面战争以外的紧张时期，而那也是我认为为什么他们会直到现在忽视反潜战的原因。
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07-06-2012 #12
plawolf
Senior Member
引用10楼姐夫头头：
“美国舰长会忠实履行命令，而如果命令是穿越柴电潜网并击沉一部分入侵舰队，他会挑最有价值目标下手，然后设法潜逃……
如果他需要潜逃的话。
技术上来说“优势”是指的拥有高质量和高科技的装备……并不是说他们一定比美国优秀。而我要再说一次，美国海军军官团和
职业军士团们是高度纪律和专注投入的，他们会执行命令。
Well, as I understand it, and iirc, as well-informed sources such as yourself and Popeye has pointed out in the
past, American commanders have a great deal of leeway in terms of making operational decisions.
呐，如我所理解，以及 iirc, If I Recall Correctly 如果我没记错的话，就像相当了解行情和情势的人士，比如你自己以及
Popeye 【大力水手波波安，论坛常驻大版主，同样是5，60岁美国退伍海军老兵】所在过去指出过的一样，美国指挥官们很会根
据形势“灵活处置”行动决议。
As I stressed, if this was an invasion fleet heading towards American soil, American politicians and commanders
would absolutely not hesitate to do what needs to be done even if it means them laying their lives on the line.
正如我所强调的，如果是一支向美国本土进军的入侵舰队，美国政客和军官们将会绝对毋庸置疑的做任何该做的事情，哪怕自己
舍身度外。
However, when Americans go to the aid of others out of choice, I somehow do not see the politicians issuing the
kind of 'stop them at all costs' orders that would massively constrain the operational decision making of it's
individual commanders, or American commanders interpreting their orders in such a way as to put the destruction
of enemy elements as a higher priority than the safety of his ship and crew.
然而，当美国是挑选性的去帮助他人时，我某种程度上认为政客们不会发布那种“不计代价拦截他们”的，极大程度限制战地指
挥官的决策的命令，或者美国指挥官会把消灭敌人置于保存自己优先之上的方式来解读命令。
It was never meant to be a suggestion that USN personnel would act in an unprofessional or unbecoming way, just a
deduction based on basic human nature.
之前我并不是为了暗示美国海军人员会以一种不专业的方式或者不匹配身份（匹配尽忠职守的身份）的方式行事，只是一种基于
人的基本本能的揣测。
Now, can you honestly tell me that if you were a USN SSN skipper, given orders to try and cause maximum
disruption to a PLAN landing, you would be so aggressive in trying to attack the enemy that you would put your
boat and crew in a position where it is very likely or even almost a certainty that you will not survive the
attack? When you are fighting someone else's battle?
现在，你能诚实坦白的告诉我，如果你是一名美国海军核攻潜的舰长，收到尽力扰乱解放军登陆部队的命令，你会如此主动的和
攻击性的消灭敌人，以至于把你和你的船员放在一个攻击后很有可能无法生还的境地吗——当你在为别人打仗的时候？
引用10楼姐夫头头：
“真正的问题是，美国潜艇能不能潜逃生天，一旦他们（对解放军）实施了最大程度打击以后。
对于所有的可能性来说，他们（美军）不需要（潜逃）。他们的策略是先解决海底威胁。
美国可能的反应策略是召集一支20艘以上的庞大核攻击潜艇部队清除台湾海峡的解放军潜艇。拥有那样的规模，那样的长期战备
训练，那样的装备和武器……这将是解放军海军的真正的挑战……来避免（被美军清除出台湾海峡）。我不认为现阶段他们（解
放军）可以（避免）。无可否认这将会是一场水底恶战……但美国就是拥有太多优势，非常安静的核攻击潜艇；对于有效躲过美
国有可能会部署的声监探测手段，海峡太狭小；用更多的拦阻潜艇部队来阻止解放军增援业已被陷于海峡的潜艇。”
I don't want this great debate to turn into a verses contest, so please don't take this the wrong way, but have
you considered the logistics of what you are suggesting?
我不想这个优秀的辩论蜕变成一场对抗争执，所以请不要错误考量下面的话，但是你有认真考虑过做到你所建议的这一切的后勤
问题吗？
How long would it take the USN to deploy 20 of it's SSNs to the Taiwan straits?
美国海军部署20艘核攻潜到台湾海峡需要多长的时间？
I don't need specifics, but would you say it would take more or less time for the PLAN to mobilize as much of the
sub and surface fleets as they can and set them up in the Taiwan straits and surrounding waters?
我不需要精确时间，但是你会说这将比解放军海军动员所有可用的潜艇和水面舰只去到台湾海峡阵地以及周边海域的时间，还要
短吗？
Against the kind of numbers of SSKs, surface ships and helos that the PLAN can muster (which would pretty much be
their entire deployable fleets), 20 SSNs doesn't really seem like that many. Especially when all these assets
would be concentrated in a very small body of water, where the PLAN has the advantage of home turf by knowing the
underwater topography and conditions better than anyone else including the USN; in shallow waters that would
massively reduce the effectiveness of SSNs; in addition to all that, you can expect extensive PLAN mine fields be
to laid and waiting by the time USN SSNs get on scene, where the mine fields are so close to the Chinese coast
that there is simply no way USN mine clearing ships could get close enough to clear a path; and in a position
where the PLAN is purely on the defensive and not out to actively hunt USN subs?
面对那样阵仗的解放军海军所能动用的柴电潜，水面舰只和直升机（也就是说几乎是他们整个可部署的舰队），20艘核攻潜真的
不像看上去那么多。尤其是当这些资源都将集中在这一片狭小的海域，而解放军拥有比包括美国海军在内的任何其他人熟悉海底
水文的主场优势；在狭小水域里极大的减低核攻潜的有效性；除了这些，你绝对可以指望解放军在美军赶到以前所布下的密集雷
场，密集的紧密靠近中国海岸而美国扫雷舰完全无法靠近通路的雷场；而处在一个解放军海军纯防御态势从而不需主动出击搜寻
美国潜艇的优势地位？
【红剑注，潜艇战不同于普通排兵布阵的战场，敌我态势双方从一开始甚至都完全不可知对方部署情况，处守势者总能更加安静
的以逸待劳守株待兔的从暗处猎杀处攻势的主动突破防线的进攻者。进攻者即使降噪程度和被动探测能力比防御者高出一截，也
处于盲人摸象的位置，期望一摸就摸中大彩抢先消灭暗处的敌人。而即使你更安静探测更精密，动的越多，暗处的防御者就越有
机会找到你的位置，无论是自己出击或者召唤群狼对恶虎，甚至开启作弊模式招来自己的反潜空中力量而你却毫无还手之力——
潜艇战，守方占上风】
The USN has unparalleled training and experience in hunting for enemy subs and ships in the wide open expanse of
the world's oceans, but have they ever trained to try and breach an underwater fortress set up like this?
美国海军在开放的世界各大洋猎杀敌方【游走的，红剑注】潜艇，具有无可比拟的训练和经验优势，但是他们有训练和尝试过突
破像这样布防的水下壁垒吗？
The whole point to the PLA's doctrine of unconventional warfare can be perfectly expressed with this example,
whereby the PLAN refuse to fight on terms the enemy knows and are obviously superior at. Instead, the PLAN seek
to use technologies available and unconventional tactics to re-define the game whereby they maximize their own
advantages while neutralizing the enemy's greatest strengths.
解放军整个非常规非对称作战的条例在这样的例子里可以被完美表达出来。解放军海军拒绝在敌人熟悉和优势的场地和境地里作
战，相反，解放军寻找可用科技和非传统策略来重新划定游戏规则，扩大自己的优势，抵消敌人的最强势力。
The PLAN knows they would have a hard time trying to detect enemy subs far enough to intercept them before they
are in a position to fire, so they won't try to. They will instead present themselves in massive numbers with
built in redundancy to take a hit and then strike back after the enemy has given up their greatest advantage of
stealth by revealing themselves.
解放军海军了解他们如果想要在敌方潜艇到达发射阵地前探测到对方相当困难，他们干脆不这么做。相反，他们以具有冗余的庞
大数量主动呈现在敌人面前，受到攻击以后，敌人暴露自己的位置从而放弃了他们最大的优势——隐蔽。
USN subs can be completely undetectable to passive sonar, but as soon as they open fire, the PLAN would know
where to ping with their active sonars, and then it won't matter how quiet your boat is.
美国海军潜艇对大多数被动声纳来说可以做到完全无法探测得到，但是一旦他们开火，解放军海军将知道该往哪里用他们的主动
声纳 ping，这时无论你的船多么安静都没用了。
【红剑注，主动声纳探照，像照妖镜一样一照就什么都探测到了。也像黑暗里的手电筒，一照自己就暴露了。但是盲目开手电筒
暴露自己，现在是知道你在哪里，用探照灯来照你，照到了就打。即使再高级的消声和声波吸收技术，也可以用更变态的主动探
测声波强度使得你无法完全吸收所有照向你的声波，任何遇到障碍而弹开的没有被吸收掉的声波，都可以被用于计算障碍物的位
置。现阶段世界对主动声纳探测无解，这也是反潜机得以存在的理由——反潜机在天上，不怕你潜艇反击，反潜机往水里扔下各
种变态的主动探测声纳浮标，主动全方位探照，声纳浮标一入水敌方潜艇就能知道，但是完全无法反击，而被主动声纳探到就只
能等死。】
In such a scenario, the USN SSN's superior quieting technologies and mobility of SSNs would count for very little
because the PLAN fully expects to get punched hard in the face. Instead of tying themselves in nots trying to
avoid the blow as conventional wisdom suggests, and allowing the USN to out-dance them and wear them down through
attrition and outmaneuvering (as the USN has trained to fight), the PLAN instead presents their face to the enemy
and gets ready to seize the hand after the blow lands and break the enemy's arm.
在这样的场景里，美国海军核攻潜的超强静音科技和机动性将带来微乎其微的优势，因为解放军海军完全了解到脸部将要承受一
击，与其如大众常识一样的期望躲闪这一击，从而使得美国海军可以如其长期以来训练和装备的，敏捷过人的跟着解放军一起跳
舞，从而磨损掉解放军海军的作战能力【一个接一个的消灭解放军防线据点，红剑注】，解放军相反呈上自己的脸并且准备好遭
受这一击，而在受完这一击以后制住并拧断敌人的手。【从而反过来以近乎1：1的交换比来磨损进攻的对手于死地。蛮的怕横的
，横的怕不要命的，红剑注】
It's not pretty or sporting or honourable, but this is war, not a show fight, and you beat the enemy in any way
you can.
这不好玩也不光荣，但这就是战争，不是秀台打架，你以任何方式打败你的敌人。
The USN can try to gradually punch a hole through all that by methodically taking out the outer layers of the
defenses, but that takes time, and the PLAN can still re-deploy and re-enforce to prolong the fighting as much as
possible. The USN would be fighting against the clock remember, as the longer they take, the more time the PLAAF
has to clear the beaches and the PLAN to actually launch the invasion.
美国海军可以逐渐的靠有条理的逐层清除外围防线来击穿这样的壁垒，但是那需要时间，而解放军依然可以重新部署和重新增援
来尽量延长这样的战斗。美国海军将跟时间赛跑，记住，拖的时间越长，解放军空军就有更多的时间来清除滩头而海军有更多时
间来正式登陆。
The PLAN does not need to defeat the USN, merely keep them at arms length long enough to launch the invasion.
After that, it's a win for the PLAN even if the USN kills dozens of ships and SSKs for no loss, and the PLAN
would be ok with that.
解放军海军不需要打败美国海军，只需要把他们挡在在一臂以外的距离，安全发起登陆进攻。在那之后，即使美国海军消灭了一
大堆水面舰只和潜艇并自己全身而退，解放军也胜利了，而解放军对此很 ok。
While you can considering all this, you need to remember that this is not America's fight. They will be in it by
choice, and that means there is only so high a price the US would be prepared to pay.
当你考量上面所有这些的时候，你必须记住这不是美国人自己的战斗，他们会依选择而参战，而那意味着美国愿意为此付出的代
价有且仅有那么高。
Even if you think the USN's sub fleet could technically punch through such a set up in time to stop an invasion,
you have already acknowledged that it won't be an easy fight by any means. That means heavy casualties and
losses, so it could easily become a case whereby even though the USN has the numbers and capability to force a
breach, they do not have the stomach to pay the butcher's bill necessary to win such a fight.
即使你认为美国海军潜艇舰队可以技术性的按时突破这样的壁垒，阻止登陆，你依然自己承认这也是一场从任何角度来说都是恶
战的苦战，那意味着高度损失与伤亡，也就是说很容易变成这样一种境地——美国有数量与科技 的能力 来突破这样的壁垒，但
没有支付这笔屠夫账单 的胃口。【请读者自行品尝作者的意味】
The threshold has never been about the PLAN being able to outright defeat the USN if they intervened, it is about
the PLAN being able to make the price of intervention so high that America will choose not to intervene in an
ideal scenario, or holding the USN off long enough to take Taiwan and render their intervention meaningless.
门槛并不是一旦美国干涉，解放军海军可以当场挫败美国海军——解放军有能力让美国的干涉付出无法承受的代价，或者挡住美
国海军足够久而拿下台湾从而使得美国干涉到头来毫无意义——这才是门槛。
That was what I meant when I said the PLA has already reached the point where they feel confident that they could
take Taiwan no matter what, in hindsight, I should have picked my words more carefully. But I feel the PLA has
developed to a point whereby the can achieve those objectives already, and now they are setting their sights on
broader goals beyond merely reclaiming Taiwan.
这才是我之前说道解放军已经足够自信的认为他们已经到达一个无论如何都可以拿下台湾的境地，现在事后诸葛看来，我当时应
该更加谨慎的选择用词。而我觉得解放军现在已经发展到了取得上述目标的地位，而现在除了简单的收复台湾以外，他们把目光
看向了更广阔更高深的目标。
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07-06-2012 #13
Jeff Head
Senior Member
Plawolf, the US commanders will simply follow orders and within their ROE and discreation. They certainly will
not committ suicide...but they will conduct operations meant to maximize their survival and, as I stated, cleanse
the straits before hand if possible, and in any event inflict as much damage as possible. They will not feel like
they are committing suicide if they get through to the shipping and sink several of them. They will feel that
their training and knowledge will allow them to get away cleanly. And they will have a number of advantages in
doing so.
解放军之狼，美国指挥官塄是会在 ROE, Rules of Engagement 接火规则 和自己的判断状况以内，遵从命令。他们当然不是来自
杀的……但他们会以最大化自己的生存条件来执行任务，并且，正如我说的，尽量清除（台湾）海峡，而且尽量依照情形，造成
尽量大的破坏。他们在穿过并顺手击沉一些舰船时不会觉得是去自杀，他们会觉得他们的训练和知识会使他们干净脱离，而他们
会在这么做时具有不少优势。
Do not doubt that the US Navy knows the underwater topography and terrain as good as if not better then the PLAN.
The US has been plying and mapping those waters with much more modern equipment for decades longer than the PLAN
has. It is only realtively recently, in terms of modern sub operations, that the PLAN has had the boats and the
mapping capabilities associated with them to do so.
不要质疑美国海军对于这片海域的水文资料的了解如同解放军一样，甚至更好。美国在这片海域用更先进的设备，比中国海军早
若干年，游玩，探测，制图。其实直到最近，对于现代潜艇运作来说，解放军海军才拥有可用的潜艇和为其探测制图的能力。
You can bet that the US also knows and understands the signatures and capabilities of all the newer (and older)
PLAN SSs and SSNs better too. They have simply been at this a lot longer and have been tracking and collecting
data on each new PLAN sub as it has left port and ventured out anywhere in the China or South China Sea where US
subs have been lurking for decades now. The only way to avoid it is to keep them very, very close to shore or in
port...but that's not what they are built for, and that would mean no operational experience. So they must
venture out.
你也可以为此打赌，美国已经比中国自己更加知道和了解所有中国海军的 新的，旧的，常规潜 与 核潜 的声纹、能力、指标。
他们（美军）纯粹比中国先玩这个游戏先上手数十年并一直在中国海军每一艘新潜艇出港离开和进入到美国潜艇数十年来就一直
潜伏的南海或任何中国其他周边地区时，搜寻和记录各种数据。唯一避免的方法就是使他们（中国潜艇）非常非常靠近海岸或者
干脆不出港……但这不是它们被建造的目的，而那也意味着没有实际运作经验。所以他们必须开出来。
And the US will have seaded sensors even along the shore and in the ports, not to mention the sat capabilities of
the yards and ports themselves.
而美国【应该是拼写错误，seaded - seeded】也会沿着海岸线甚至在港口里面，埋下了探测阵列，更不用说卫星对于港口和港院
的探测能力。
So, it is very likely that the US will know about any buildup or movement of PLAN submaries as soon as they
begin.
所以，很有可能一旦解放军海军有任何建设或者潜艇动向，美国都会知道。
The US has the numbers, without stretching things much at all, to put 20 SSNs into the Taiwan Straits area very
quickly if necessay...starting with 6-8 boats within a day or two to restrict the PLAN buildup and hamper it
significantly if conflict breaks out, and then the others following in a week after that to scour the area. The
surge into the Pacific, for the sub force, began a good while before things were more officially announced
lately...back in the Bush years.
美国拥有——完全不需要捉衿见肘的，一旦需要迅速在台湾海峡部署20艘核攻潜的能力，的数量…… 从一两天内6～8艘到位开始
，限制和拖延解放军海军的集结并在冲突一旦爆发时极大的妨碍他们，然后其他潜艇跟着在一个星期后扫荡这片区域。从布什年
代以来，潜艇部队往太平洋的急速增兵，总是早在正式宣布之前很久就开始了。
As to whether the US has the stomach...do not underestimate US resolve. Even in these times the US has spent over
10 years in a couple of strategic and necesssary (military wise) wars that have lately become more unpopular. The
US spent 10 years in Vietnam in an even more unpopular confrontation.
至于美国有没有这个胃口……不要低估了美国的意志——即使在美国在一些近期越来越不受欢迎的必要的热点战略地区打了10年
仗的时候。美国在越南更加不受欢迎的打了10年。
So, a naval confrontation, even one that costs US lives, is much more likely to be one that is carried out on a
time scale measured in years if necessary rather than months...and, though it sounds callous, the types of
casualties we are talking about here with the silent services, are not as verifiable or as clear cut as they are
in land or air warfare...or even navy surface warfare for that matter. It's always been that way and takes longer
to officially state or list sub crews as lost when they miss comms. They become "missing" for significant lengths
of times, and after that the word comes out slowly. Again, it's always been that way and US personnel in those
services are warned and schooled in that reality coming in.
然，一场海事对峙，哪怕是一场吞噬美国人生命的，将会是一场以年而不是月为时间轴计算的冲突……而且，虽然听上去很残酷
，我们在这里谈论的“沉默服务者”的伤亡，不是那种如陆战或空战一样容易确认和清晰明了的伤亡……或者甚至不是海军水面
作战单位的那种伤亡。一直以来就是这样，需要更长的时间来正式确认或者厘清，或者在他们是去联系时标为“失踪”，“失踪
”到更久以后消息依然很慢才会传开，【最后才会标为死亡】。再说一次，一直以来都是这样而且美国这种单位的服役人员也是
依此为参照进行训练和教导的。【要等失踪N久了才会确认为死亡什么的】
So, though there would be a fight...and though it would certainly be more difficult than it would have been say
10, or even 5 years ago...I still believe for another 5-10 years until the PLAN sub force matures and expands s
lot more...and until they PLAN develops very good ASW capabilities with ASW vessels, helos, and aircraft along
its own coasts...I believe the US would relatively quickly gain an underwater "dominance" effect like one would
talk about in terms of air dominance, which, quite frankly would be harder to achieve and maintain in the air
because the PLAAF is advancing more rapidly and with greater numbers.
然，尽管会有得一打……而且尽管肯定会比10年前甚至5年前难打的多……我仍然认为花5～10年直到解放军海军潜艇部队成熟并
扩张更多……直到解放军海军沿着他的海岸线部署非常好的反潜船只，直升机和飞机——我仍然认为美国会相对轻易的取得水下
控制权，就像平时说的制空权一样，只是，直白说来制空权会比较难以取得并维持，因为解放军空军正在取得长足的进步和发展
并正在拥有更多数量。
But if the US and ROC only gain air superiority or even air parity, it will not make any difference to the
invasion if they do not have clear superiority or dominance in the air. The invasion will fail if the US gains
any superiority at all under the waves.
但是如果美国和 ROC，Republic of China 中华民国仅仅取得制空权或者甚至空中焦灼平手，没有完全制空权对于入侵登陆来说
没有任何区别，入侵会失败于美国任何程度的水下优势之手。
【红剑注，没有制空权，就没有以空制海的反潜优势，这是一个因果关系】
...and at the present time, and for several years to come, unless the PLAN begins pumping out even better SSs
with very fine AIP and quieting along the lines of some of the best modern European designs (which the US has
leased for years at a time and honed not only their surface ASW abilities against, but also their submarine ASW
capabilites) and similarly improved SSNs, I do not expect the PLAN to be able to prevent it...all that said even
though the PLAN is far better now than they were a few years ago and continuing to improve.
……而目前来说，以及可以预见的将来，除非解放军海军井喷出更多更好的 AIP 的，更安静的跟很多现代欧洲设计一样的（而美
国租借这些欧洲货过来进行水面和水下反潜对抗训练已经多年）常规潜，以及同样的改进核攻潜，我不认为解放军海军有能力防
止【被挫败的结局】——尽管解放军海军比起几年前现在已经好了很多而且在持续进步。
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07-08-2012 #14
plawolf
Senior Member
Sorry about the delay in response, but I wrote a very detailed reply a couple day back but the internet browser
eat it and I have been too busy to make a proper attempt till now.
抱歉延迟回复了，事实上我之前写了一长篇详细的回复，但是网页浏览器出问题吃了我帖子而我本人最近很忙直到现在才时间。
Well, Jeff old buddy, I have already said I do not want to make this a verses discussion. We generally agree with
each other, and the main sticking points are of personal opinion, and I really do not see either of us being able
to present the kind of water-tight case that could convince the other.
好吧，嗟夫伙计，我已经说了我不想这帖变成一个一场对抗争执。我们基本上赞同对方，而主要异见只在于一些个人感想，我也
认为我们都不能像水密处理一样严丝合缝的说服对方。
You have absolute faith in the abilities if the USN sub service, and I am sure you have very good reasons to be
so confident with your connections. However, as I am sure you are well aware, too much exposure and familiarity
could easily affect one's objectivity. This is particularly true in this case, because on the one hand, the US
has perfected the art of using military muscle flexing to inspire their own troops and cow opponents, yet on the
other, the Chinese are the true masters at hiding their true capabilities.
你对如果美国海军潜艇部队的卷入，拥有绝对信心，而基于你的之前的关系【见姐夫头头履历】我想你也不是空穴来风。但是，
就像我肯定你知道的，只缘身在此山中，太了解和潜心于一件事反而无法带来对这件事的客观评价。现在的情形尤其如此，因为
一方面美国已经在动用武力振奋自己人震慑对手的事情上已经修炼的炉火纯青，但另一方面，中国人是隐藏实力的至尊高手。
The USN has undisputed superior equipment, training and experience to play cat and mouse in the deep oceans, but
any war over Taiwan will take them out of their comfort zone and into the PLAN's domain.
美国海军具有毋庸置疑压倒性优势的装备、训练和在大洋深处猫捉老鼠的经验，但是任何在台湾的战争都会使他们离开自己的熟
悉主场而进入解放军的天下。
You have already touched on the experience the USN gained training with the Dutch, but I think you kinda skipped
over the part where for all the USN's equipment, training and skills, they were still subject to plenty of
unpleasant surprises when they first entertained the Dutch. And that was with the Dutch playing in America's back
yard, I dare say the results might have been worse for the USN had they held those exercises in the home waters
of the Dutch, where their skippers had superior knowledge about the underwater conditions and topography that he
could have exploited to his advantage.
你已经谈及了美国海军跟 Dutch 德国（或者荷兰，这里没记错的话应该是德国）的训练中的经验，但是我想你可能忽略了诚如美
国海军这样的装备训练和技巧，他们依然在头次跟德国人过招时碰到了几次不愉快的惊喜，而那还是德军在美国的后院的训练。
我斗胆说如果美国海军在德国舰长们拥有压倒性的关于水下水文环境的知识的可加以利用的德国的主场做同样的训练结果可能会
更惨。
That just goes to show that no-one has a perfect playbook for ASW. For sure, the USN has massively improved for
the experiences gained with the Dutch and are far better prepared to deal with SSKs as a result. However, one
must remember that the PLAN use very different equipment and tactics compared to the Dutch, and having experience
'fighting' against one is no guarantee of being able to effectively counter the other. In addition, the USN will
not be fighting one SSK, but dozens, with surface ships, airborne ASW and sea mines just to name a few others to
contend with.
那只证明了没人拥有反潜战的秘籍。当然，美国海军肯定经过同德国的训练经验获得了对抗常规潜的巨大进步，但是，人们应该
记住解放军海军跟德国不同，运用完全不同的装备技战术，而有过对A的交手经验并不保证就可以运用到对B的实际运用中去。另
外，美国海军到时不是对抗一艘而是上打的常规潜，由水面舰只，空中反潜力量和水雷等等支援。
You think the USN could still sweep all before them for all that, I have my doubts. Let's just leave it at that
and hope we never get to find out for real which one of us is right.
你认为美国海军可以在他们面前荡平一切，我有质疑。但是让我们搁置争议并祈求不需要通过现实战斗来发现谁最终对错。
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07-09-2012 #15
Jeff Head
Senior Member
全文引用14楼。
Some people may base their opinions and open talk on conjecture and subjective reasoning because of over-
familiarity, emotions, or just plain arrogance...and sadly, as in all nations and peoples, we have ample
individuals, some of them within the military, who are beset by that last quality. It took a year in Word War II
(as my Dad who fought in that conflict related to me) to glean such out of the US Navy...and it occurred either
through it being apparent beforehand and those individuals being removed from forward areas, or, too many times
when their feelings about a particular foe led them to underestimate, to presume, and then to establish planning
based on that only to have it result in the death and injury of too many personnel, oft times including
themselves..
有些人基于自己的意见主观的以因为过于专注了解，情绪，或仅仅是狂妄的，高谈阔论……很遗憾，在所有国家和人民中，我们
总有如此的奇葩，有些尤其是最擅长于最后者（狂妄）原因的军方人士。美国海军在二战中（依我爹跟我痛诉的革命家史）花了
一年时间才意识到上述情形——基于成见，或从前方退下的人士，或太多次因他们对于某特定敌人的了解，假设，而后建立的要
了卿命的作战计划。
But I do not think ore presume in that way. Mine are based on things I know to be true and have gained from my
own experience or from people who I trust unequivocally...and then throw in a very large measure of cution and
respect for the foe into that mix.
但我不是像那样的思考或者揣测的。我的（了解）来自于我自己知晓其真实性的事物和我从我肝胆相照的信任的人士那里学来的
经验——并投入相当大的谨慎和尊重考量于期间。
Even if you have a significant "edge" you can never underestimate a determined adversary...ever.
即使你有庞大的“优势”你也不能低估一个决意决绝的对手——永远不能。
Now, the US Navy has the best maps of the underwater topography in that region (and I am not talking about the
bloue water...I am talking about the Straits and all of the littoral areas around them on bothe sides) that can
be found and the experience using them operationally...and not just in training execises...which they have
improved upon and updated over the years when anything changed.
喏，美国海军拥有那个地区的能找到的和可执行的最好的水底水文图表（而且我说的不仅仅是蓝水，还包括台湾海峡和周边水域
本身）……而且不仅仅是训练而已——多年来任何改动都会被更新和改进。
As I said, this does not mean any operation like this would be a cake walk...nor does it mean there would not be
difficulties or surprises...if pitted against any modern foe who has strong capabilitie and steely determination.
It does mean that there is, at the present, becasue of the inequities in all of the areas you mentioned, a very
strong chance, if the US takes careful advantage of those inequities or advantages, and does not underestimate
what an adversary may be able to do to try and level the playing field, that in any true conflict they would then
be abe to use those very things to gain dominance.
如我所言，这不是说像这样的行动会是小菜一碟，或者不会困难和“惊喜”——如果对付任何一个强大的心意已决的现代敌人的
话。但这确实是在说，以现在来看，因为你上面提到的所有的不平等，很大可能——如果美国仔细运用不平等优势并不低估对手
对抗的手段和能力——那么在任何正式冲突中他们可以特别利用那些不平等优势而取得控制权。
Now, in a few more years if the trends continue they way they are now, that margin and that type of surety can
certainly narrow.
啧，如果保持现在这样的趋势，不过几年，那个边际差距和信心【美国对于自己拥有那样的差距优势的信心】，肯定会减小。
As to the Dutch, the US was involved in training exercises when these things happened. And they were a
surprise...but they also occurred where the parameters were set and things allowed to occur in a certaian manner
so that the objectives of the exercise could be met...for example, knowing there was a "red team" AIP sub in the
area and having the carrier battle group itself try to penetrate that area in any case. In a real life scenario,
no US carrier will venture into any circumstance where an AIP vessel could have a shot at it, nor do they need
to. Those vessels cannot keep up with the carrier and have little hope of intercepting them in the open sea where
they would work in such a scenrio as this.
至于德国，美国在训练中学会这些事【德国的常规潜让美国吃瘪的事】，而且可真是惊喜……但这也是在参数设定，为训练达标
而组织的情况下发生的……比如，知道那里有“红军”的AIP潜艇而我们的航母战斗舰队依然要硬闯过去。在现实中，没有美国航
母会在有敌人AIP潜艇可以取得发射阵位的境地下强闯一片海域，他们也不需要【暗指没有敌人可以靠近那样的发射位置】。那些
艇（德国潜艇）跟不上航母也没有希望可以在那种设定的开放大海上拦截住他们。
Until the adversary vessels were accounted for, the carriers would lend their air support from long distyance and
a direction best likely to assure no interception by the slower DE. The attack subs I speak of would be the ones
dealing with those threats and it would not be in a manner that has been scripted for training.
除非敌方船只都被“点名”了，航母（只)会从柴电潜大致无法拦截的远处发起空中支援。我提到的攻击方潜艇才是因不能以训练
脚本进行而需要头疼于这些的一方。
Having said that, the US Navy has spent the time and resources necessary...and not just with the Dutch now...to
learn fropm them how to work in those environs against precisely those types of platforms...and from people who
are very good at it and have been using that level of technology for about as long as anyone has had it
available.
说起来，美国海军花费了必要的时间与资源——而且不仅仅是跟德国人而已——从他们那里学习如何在那样的环境中对抗正经的
那些潜艇平台——从那些自科技出现始就已经在使用它们的那些非常有能力的人那里学习。
You are correct, it was not the PLAN, and that has to be thrown into the mix I spke of before, with great respect
for its capabilities and intentions to acquire and get the golden shot.
你是对的，这【指训练对象】不是解放军海军，所以要把这个因素审慎的考虑进我刚刚说道的论证中去，敬畏他们为取得致命一
击的精神和能力。
In the end, like you, I just hope and pray we never have to find out...now or later. That the differences can be
workled out amiably.
最后，跟你一样，我期望与祈求我们现在与将来都不需要找出【谁更强】的答案。争端可以和谐解决【原文使用“和蔼地”】。
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07-13-2012 #16
Red___Sword 【红剑三道杠】
Junior Member Join Date Dec 2010
Posts 828
While this is a short thread by far ("only" 16 posts), it is a great one that fully demostrated SDF's prowess of having people reasoning each other with systematical and methodical analyse - a rare attribute among Cyber space - I would like to add my point to the apparent "right or wrong" thinking atmosphere, that
这虽然到目前为止是个短短的帖子（“才”16楼），却完全展现了 SDF 论坛的系统性地和条理性地以理服人的讨论风气——互联网上一个难得的属性——而我希望在现在“非对即错”的氛围中加入一点我的见解：
IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR ONE'S VICTORY REQUIRES ITS OPPONENT'S DEFEAT.
一方的胜利不完全需要建立在另一方的失败之上。
The American continental militia, seized victory NOT by totally annihilate the British Empire's military, in fact, even after its defeat at America, British military still sits at the throne of global domination. But it was a good enough VICTORY for American people at America, and I dare say they did so by methodically reduce the global doninator called the red coats' strategic gain to a level lower enogh to its strategic loss, and thus the war on America cease to go on.
美洲大陆民兵，非以全歼大英帝国的军力而取得胜利，事实上，即使英国从美国败退以后，它依然处于世界统治霸权地位的宝座之上。但这对处于美国的美国人来说，是个足够好的胜利，我斗胆说他们是以消减当时世界霸权——“红衫”【当时英国皇家海军制服为鲜艳全红衫，当时所有讨厌英国的人都以 Red Coat 红衫来指称英军，红剑注】的战略利好至一个低于战略损失的位置之上，从而使对美战争自然停止进行下去的。
Vietnamese WINS its own country back from foreign boots, while US pretty much DID NOT loss the war and I dare say if judging US's original stratgic goal is to "stop communism spreading through the whole asia", US somewhat achieved that goal too. Then what else is the point of continue the war? So the war between US and Vietnam ceased.
越南人从外国军靴之下 赢 回了自己的国家，而美国当时事实上 并没有 输掉战争，而我斗胆说考虑到美国最原始的战略目的“阻止共产主义在全亚洲的蔓延”一定程度上甚至也得到了满足。那么继续打下去还有什么意义呢？所以美越之间的战争停止进行下去。
In the context of PRC's ASW operations against possible god-like foreign intervention over possible military efforts in Chinese-sphere-of-influence, its goal is never TO DEFEAT the intervention force wholesale. Its goal is to make that kind of intervention CEASE TO OPERATE after a certain amount of exchage of ... understanding.
说到人民共和国在自己的影响范围以内可能的战争行为受到可能的神一样的外国干涉势力的干涉而进行的反潜作战，他的目标从来就不是当场击败干涉军。他的目标是 在一定程度上互相“交换了意见，了解了长短，知道了深浅”【注，内涵话语】以后，使得那样的干涉行为 停止进行下去。
I believe Jeff and many other proud service people's perspective is that the "exchange rate" should be (and probably will be), vastly in US's favor, and should the opponent lazy and weak enough, victorious benifits to the USA can be vastly grabbed before any cease fire took place.
我相信 Jeff 和其他很多骄傲的服役人士的观点是，这种“交换率”应该（而且也很可能）会对美国极为有利，而且如果对手一旦够懒够弱的话，对于美国来说的足够大的胜利果实便会在停火以前掠取。
But the point is as long as the intervention CEASE TO OPERATE took place, PRC's ASW operations has achieved its goal, and Chinese people are already willing to bear the cost for that - they (we) now are just building up the capability for it.
但是重点是一旦干涉行为停止进行下去，人民共和国的反潜行动就取得了他的目的，而中国人民已经愿意付出这样的代价——他们（我们）现在正在打造这样的能力而已。
Foes can walk away from each other with certain understandings, the stratgic gain and loss ratio determines how each values it. - And by the gods let's hope we don't find out.
相互敌视的人之间可以互有敬重的错开走，战略所得和战略损失比决定了各自如何看待这事——老天在上希望我们不需要非得知道这个答案。
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07-13-2012 #17
Jeff Head
Senior Member
引用16楼
Well said. And in that context, whether there is a confrontation or not (and as you stated, let's pray not), one of the key elements (among several) that the PLAN needs to develop to increase its capability its its long-range, long-endurance maritime ASW patrol aircraft.
说得好。基于无论有或者没有（像你所说，让我们祈望没有）对峙的境地，众多重要因素中之一就是解放军海军需要提高其在远航程，长航时，海事反潜巡逻机上面的能力。
The U S has long had close to 200 P-3C Orions which are now aging and reaching the end of their service life.
美国很早以来就拥有接近200架 P-3C猎户座，现在已经老旧并接近服役年限。
What is the US Navy doing about it?
美国海军为此做了什么呢？
Recognizing that such aircraft are a crticial supplement to ASW capabilities of surface vessels, submarines, and shorter range aircraft off of carriers and other vessels, they have developed a very suitable and modern replacement, the P-8A Poseidon.
意识到这种飞机对于水面舰只，潜艇和航母起降的稍短程飞机和其他舰只的反潜能力的至关重要的补充，他们开发了一款非常合适和现代化的取代品，P-8A波塞顿。
This is the very type of thing the PLAN needs to also address, as the artice mentions.
这正是解放军海军亟待解决的问题，正如文章【原引用《情报期刊》文章】提到的。
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07-14-2012 #18
montyp165
Member Join Date Jan 2007
Posts 438
The PLAN at the very least has been developing the Y-8 ASW/MPA aircraft, it just needs to get them into mass production to fully cover this aspect. I'd consider mass purchases of Il-38's as a possible stopgap in the meantime if they were still in production, or modified Be-200s for that matter.
解放军海军至少在开发 Y-8 反潜/海事巡逻 机，现在需要批量生产来完全照顾到这个问题。我认为批量生产 Il-38 可以做为一个可行的临时措施，如果它们还有生产的话，或者也可以改装 Be-200。
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07-14-2012 #19
hmmwv
Member Join Date Aug 2011
Posts 371
If Shaanxi can convert the Y8C line to Y8F600 production the rate will dramatically increase. Look at Boeing, the Renton plant will soon be able to push out 60 737s per month.
如果陕西可以把 Y8C 生产线改成 Y8F600 产量可以极大提高。看看波音，Renton 厂即将推出60架737每月的产量。
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07-14-2012 #20
tphuang
Super Moderator
Join Date Aug 2005
Posts 5,917
【论坛大版主之一，华人，前面提到的考据党之一】
全文引用19楼
What is Shaanxi at right now for all variants of Y-8? 2 per months? It can't be higher than that. I just wonder how much they can increase it to.
陕西现在 Y-8 系列的状况怎样？2架每月？不会比那高。我只想知道他们能增产到多少？
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第二页
07-13-2012 #16
Red___Sword 【红剑三道杠】
Junior Member Join Date Dec 2010
Posts 828
While this is a short thread by far ("only" 16 posts), it is a great one that fully demostrated SDF's prowess of having people reasoning each other with systematical and methodical analyse - a rare attribute among Cyber space - I would like to add my point to the apparent "right or wrong" thinking atmosphere, that
这虽然到目前为止是个短短的帖子（“才”16楼），却完全展现了 SDF 论坛的系统性地和条理性地以理服人的讨论风气——互联网上一个难得的属性——而我希望在现在“非对即错”的氛围中加入一点我的见解：
IT IS NOT NECESSARY FOR ONE'S VICTORY REQUIRES ITS OPPONENT'S DEFEAT.
一方的胜利不完全需要建立在另一方的失败之上。
The American continental militia, seized victory NOT by totally annihilate the British Empire's military, in fact, even after its defeat at America, British military still sits at the throne of global domination. But it was a good enough VICTORY for American people at America, and I dare say they did so by methodically reduce the global doninator called the red coats' strategic gain to a level lower enogh to its strategic loss, and thus the war on America cease to go on.
美洲大陆民兵，非以全歼大英帝国的军力而取得胜利，事实上，即使英国从美国败退以后，它依然处于世界统治霸权地位的宝座之上。但这对处于美国的美国人来说，是个足够好的胜利，我斗胆说他们是以消减当时世界霸权——“红衫”【当时英国皇家海军制服为鲜艳全红衫，当时所有讨厌英国的人都以 Red Coat 红衫来指称英军，红剑注】的战略利好至一个低于战略损失的位置之上，从而使对美战争自然停止进行下去的。
Vietnamese WINS its own country back from foreign boots, while US pretty much DID NOT loss the war and I dare say if judging US's original stratgic goal is to "stop communism spreading through the whole asia", US somewhat achieved that goal too. Then what else is the point of continue the war? So the war between US and Vietnam ceased.
越南人从外国军靴之下 赢 回了自己的国家，而美国当时事实上 并没有 输掉战争，而我斗胆说考虑到美国最原始的战略目的“阻止共产主义在全亚洲的蔓延”一定程度上甚至也得到了满足。那么继续打下去还有什么意义呢？所以美越之间的战争停止进行下去。
In the context of PRC's ASW operations against possible god-like foreign intervention over possible military efforts in Chinese-sphere-of-influence, its goal is never TO DEFEAT the intervention force wholesale. Its goal is to make that kind of intervention CEASE TO OPERATE after a certain amount of exchage of ... understanding.
说到人民共和国在自己的影响范围以内可能的战争行为受到可能的神一样的外国干涉势力的干涉而进行的反潜作战，他的目标从来就不是当场击败干涉军。他的目标是 在一定程度上互相“交换了意见，了解了长短，知道了深浅”【注，内涵话语】以后，使得那样的干涉行为 停止进行下去。
I believe Jeff and many other proud service people's perspective is that the "exchange rate" should be (and probably will be), vastly in US's favor, and should the opponent lazy and weak enough, victorious benifits to the USA can be vastly grabbed before any cease fire took place.
我相信 Jeff 和其他很多骄傲的服役人士的观点是，这种“交换率”应该（而且也很可能）会对美国极为有利，而且如果对手一旦够懒够弱的话，对于美国来说的足够大的胜利果实便会在停火以前掠取。
But the point is as long as the intervention CEASE TO OPERATE took place, PRC's ASW operations has achieved its goal, and Chinese people are already willing to bear the cost for that - they (we) now are just building up the capability for it.
但是重点是一旦干涉行为停止进行下去，人民共和国的反潜行动就取得了他的目的，而中国人民已经愿意付出这样的代价——他们（我们）现在正在打造这样的能力而已。
Foes can walk away from each other with certain understandings, the stratgic gain and loss ratio determines how each values it. - And by the gods let's hope we don't find out.
相互敌视的人之间可以互有敬重的错开走，战略所得和战略损失比决定了各自如何看待这事——老天在上希望我们不需要非得知道这个答案。
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07-13-2012 #17
Jeff Head
Senior Member
引用16楼
Well said. And in that context, whether there is a confrontation or not (and as you stated, let's pray not), one of the key elements (among several) that the PLAN needs to develop to increase its capability its its long-range, long-endurance maritime ASW patrol aircraft.
说得好。基于无论有或者没有（像你所说，让我们祈望没有）对峙的境地，众多重要因素中之一就是解放军海军需要提高其在远航程，长航时，海事反潜巡逻机上面的能力。
The U S has long had close to 200 P-3C Orions which are now aging and reaching the end of their service life.
美国很早以来就拥有接近200架 P-3C猎户座，现在已经老旧并接近服役年限。
What is the US Navy doing about it?
美国海军为此做了什么呢？
Recognizing that such aircraft are a crticial supplement to ASW capabilities of surface vessels, submarines, and shorter range aircraft off of carriers and other vessels, they have developed a very suitable and modern replacement, the P-8A Poseidon.
意识到这种飞机对于水面舰只，潜艇和航母起降的稍短程飞机和其他舰只的反潜能力的至关重要的补充，他们开发了一款非常合适和现代化的取代品，P-8A波塞顿。
This is the very type of thing the PLAN needs to also address, as the artice mentions.
这正是解放军海军亟待解决的问题，正如文章【原引用《情报期刊》文章】提到的。
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07-14-2012 #18
montyp165
Member Join Date Jan 2007
Posts 438
The PLAN at the very least has been developing the Y-8 ASW/MPA aircraft, it just needs to get them into mass production to fully cover this aspect. I'd consider mass purchases of Il-38's as a possible stopgap in the meantime if they were still in production, or modified Be-200s for that matter.
解放军海军至少在开发 Y-8 反潜/海事巡逻 机，现在需要批量生产来完全照顾到这个问题。我认为批量生产 Il-38 可以做为一个可行的临时措施，如果它们还有生产的话，或者也可以改装 Be-200。
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07-14-2012 #19
hmmwv
Member Join Date Aug 2011
Posts 371
If Shaanxi can convert the Y8C line to Y8F600 production the rate will dramatically increase. Look at Boeing, the Renton plant will soon be able to push out 60 737s per month.
如果陕西可以把 Y8C 生产线改成 Y8F600 产量可以极大提高。看看波音，Renton 厂即将推出60架737每月的产量。
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07-14-2012 #20
tphuang
Super Moderator
Join Date Aug 2005
Posts 5,917
【论坛大版主之一，华人，前面提到的考据党之一】
全文引用19楼
What is Shaanxi at right now for all variants of Y-8? 2 per months? It can't be higher than that. I just wonder how much they can increase it to.
陕西现在 Y-8 系列的状况怎样？2架每月？不会比那高。我只想知道他们能增产到多少？
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07-14-2012 #21
引用18楼：
[qupte]
“解放军海军至少在开发 Y-8 反潜/海事巡逻 机，现在需要批量生产来完全照顾到这个问题。我认为批量生产 Il-38 可以做为一个可行的临时措施，如果它们还有生产的话”
[/quote]
How many of these have they actually built? Are any in service? I thought it was still in test.
这个他们事实上建造了多少？有任何处于服役状态的吗？我以为它还在测试中。
Is it this aricraft:
是这个吗？
【红叉叉】
or this one:
或者这个？
【红叉叉】
I am under the impression it is the latter.
我以为是后者。
The latter appears to be a newer airframe and a production run of these in good numbers with strong ASW capabilities and armament would be a good answer for the PLAN.
后者看上去有更新的机身，并且带强反潜能力和武装的这个批量生产可以是解放军海军的答卷。
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07-14-2012 #22
asif iqbal
Junior Member
What is the last picture? Looks like its a modern aircraft and can carry a bomb bay easily
最后一张图片是什么？看上去是一架现代化飞机并能轻松拥有一个炸弹仓。
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07-14-2012 #23
Jeff Head
Senior Member
全文引用22楼
Ok, the first photo is the Y-8X, a maritime/ASW patrol aircraft in service since the 1980s. I do not know how many were built, byt apparently there is consensus that the PLAN is lacking in long range ASW so their capabilities must be outdated.
哦剋，第一张照片是 Y-8X，一型自80年代以来服役的海事/反潜巡逻机。我不知道具体造了多少，但显然大家对于解放军缺乏远程反潜拥有共识所以它们的能力可能落后了。
This is the second aircraft:
这是第二款飞机：
【红叉叉】
A newer Matirime/ASW patrol aircraft first seen in the last year or two. I do not know how many have been built and what stage of testing they are. I do not think any are in service yet, but do not know. I've seen it refered to as the Y-8Q GX6 and the Y-9, but again, do not know. Apparently it is thought that this will be a stronger ASW platform, that is much newer and if the PLAN builds a good number of them they will begin addressing that long range ASW need.
一型去年左右首见的新款海事/反潜巡逻机。我不知道造了多少以及测试到什么阶段了。我不认为其已经服役，但说不准。我看到过它被称为 Y-8Q GX6 和 Y-9，但再一次，说不准。显然这被认为是一个更强更新的反潜平台，如果解放军造了不少，那么就是在回应那个远程反潜不足。
Notice the MAD boom on the tail, the chin mounted surface radar, and the bomb bays.
注意那个屁股，下巴海面雷达，和炸弹仓。
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07-14-2012 #24
asif iqbal
Junior Member
That platform looks more similar to Y-9, but then the platform for ZDK-03 looks like Y-9
这个看上去更像Y-9，但是 ZDK-03 平台看上去像 Y-9。
Clearly China Is addressing the ASW issue with this aircraft
显然中国正在用这款飞机回应反潜问题。
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07-15-2012 #25
hmmwv
Member
It's GX6 ASW plane which is based on the Y8F600/Y9 transport plane platform, the same platform is used for all other newer specialty aircraft (AEW&C, ELINT, EW, C&C, etc). The basic Y9 transport variant has also been recently sighted. Currently there are 41+ GX series aircraft. Out of them only about half are variants of the Y8F600/Y9 platform. Initially production rate was extremely limited at 1 per month, the recent surge of numbers of GX5, 6, and Y9 suggest production rate picked up significantly, my guess would be 3-4 per month, if the Y8C line is converted to Y8F600/Y9 production I expect that number to jump to 5-6 per month. But I don't see that happening until late 2013 or early 2014 at the earliest.
是基于 Y8F600/Y9 运输机平台的 GX6 反潜机，同一款平台被用于其他所有特殊用途飞机（预警，电侦，电子战，指控，等等）。基本Y9运输型最近也被翻墙到了。现在有41多架 GX 系列飞机，其中只有一半左右是 Y8F600/Y9 平台。初期产能被极度限定在一架每月，最近井喷的 GX5,6,Y9 意味着产能极大提高，我猜3－4架每月，如果 Y8C 生产线被转成 Y8F600/Y9，我期望其跳到5－6架每月的产能。但我想那最快要到2013末或2014初。
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07-15-2012 #26
asif iqbal
Junior Member
Rather than getting ex-US PC-3s I think it would be good if Pakisan bought this type of aircraft from China, establishing a ASW squadron of these aircraft would be great assets for the navy and a great addition to the current 4 x ZDK-03 we already operate
与其搞美国 PC3 我想巴基斯坦还不如买中国的这款，建立一个这样机型的反潜中队将是在我们现有的4架 ZDK-03 的基础上给海军的重大加强。
If it has a bomb bay and chin mounted radar it looks like China knows exactly what kind of ASW aircraft it needs, in addition the seas and coast around Pakistan have very dramatic change in salinity and using towed arrays has been a petty difficult task as Pakistan has already tested, having one of these aircraft would address that challenge and also help development of this aircraft
如果它有下巴雷达和炸弹仓看得出中国找准了他最需要什么样的反潜机，另外巴基斯坦沿岸和沿海的盐度有极动态变化而巴基斯坦已经测试了用拖曳阵列极其困难，来一架这型飞机将应付这个挑战并能帮助开发这款飞机。
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07-15-2012 #27
plawolf
Senior Member
全文引用26楼
Are Pakistan paying cash for their PC3s? I was under the impression that they were being provided as part of America's military assistance package to Pakistan. If that is the case, then it is easy to see why Pakistan is going for PC3s instead of trying to get airframe commonality between their AWACS and MPA fleets.
巴基斯坦给 PC3 付现金吗？我印象中它们是美国对巴军援的一部分。如果是那样的话，那么很容易就能明白为什么巴基斯坦会要 PC3 而不是试着给他的预警与海事巡部队找个通用机体。
In addition, it could easily be that even if Pakistan wants this MPA, they might have to wait many years to take delivery since I would expect the PLANAF to be placing a quite substantial order once this bird becomes operational.
另外，即使巴基斯坦想要这个海事巡，他们也要等几年才能收获，因为我想一旦成型解放军海航会下个大订单先。
On top of that, this MPA is still new and untested. For the Pakistanis, given the choice between a mature, proven and very well established and respected MPA and a newly designed one still in development, one could easily see why they would go with the proven choice.
除此之外，这款海事巡还依然新而未试。对于巴基斯坦来说，在一款成熟，经验证，优良推广和口碑好的海事巡与一款依然在研发当中选，人们能显见他们为什么选择经验证的那个。
A more suspicious person might also suggest that China might have also preferred it if Pakistan went the PC3 as given the close relationship between Pakistan and China, they might be hoping that Pakistan might give them some performance benchmarks, design solutions and other useful info they might have gleamed from the PC3 design that could massively aid the development of China's own MPA. Maybe Chinese engineers might even get first hand access to PC3s.
一个怀疑论者可以更进一步认为也许中国会希望巴基斯坦搞来 PC3，鉴于中巴紧密关系，他们可能希望巴方能提供一些测试基准值，设计方案和其他能管窥 PC3 设计并极大帮助中国自己的海事巡研发的有用信息。也许中国工程师甚至能拿到 PC3 一手资料。
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07-16-2012 #28
Rauf
New Member
PN P3-Cs were acquired via $1.3+ Billion Military aid, not cash by Pak, F-16s Block 52+ and MLU is/were paid by Pak.
巴海军 P3-C 是通过13多亿美元军援，而不是巴军现金支付；F-16 Block 52+ 和 MLU 是巴军买的。
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07-16-2012 #29
asif iqbal
Junior Member
全文引用28楼
That is incorrect
不对
Pakistan orders as follows
巴军订单如下
3 x P-3C Orion Update-2.5 ordered in 1988 embargod but then finally deliverd between 1996-1997 for $139 million
3架P-3C Orion Update-2.5，1988年订购，被制裁禁运了不过后来在1996到97年以1.39亿美元交付。
8 x P-3CUP Orion orderd in 2005 and delivered between 2007-2011 paid by $970 million in US aid
8架P-3CUP Orion 2005年订购并在2007到2011年以9.7亿美元援助交付。
the 8 selected are ex-US
8架前美国货身世
PCN BuNo C/n Arrival Date Previous Unit
AN2P0165 159511 5629 13-JUL-95 VP-92, NAS Brunswick, ME.
AN2P0166 159890 5641 10-AUG-95 VP-69, NAS Whidbey Island, WA.
AN2P0171 159883 5634 21-SEP-95 VP-69, NAS Whidbey Island, WA.
AN2P0174 159505 5623 30-MAY-96 VP-69, NAS Whidbey Island, WA.
AN2P0175 159510 5628 30-MAY-96 VP-69, NAS Whidbey Island, WA.
AN2P0176 159509 5627 06-AUG-96 VP-65, NAS Point Mugu, CA.
AN2P0178 159508 5626 17-SEP-96 VP-94, NAS New Orleans, LA.
AN2P0184 160289 5652 16-DEC-97 VP-30, NAS Jacksonville, FL.
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07-16-2012 #30
asif iqbal
Junior Member
全文引用27楼
well P-8 isnt going to India in a hurry, and the appearance of this type of aircraft with that MAD tail boom says alot, clearly China is looking for a serious patrol aircraft here and the fact we see bomb bays is just amazing
额 P-8 不会立马到印度，而这款飞机带着 （MAD，Magnetic Analyse Dune）磁探测鼓【红剑注，缩写瞎猜的】尾翼现身本身就说明了很多事，显然中国需要一款够劲的巡逻机，而这飞机竟然带着炸弹仓本身就碉堡了。
P-3C are good but they are getting on, plus India is buying more and more American equipment the shift to Chinese systems is a natural transition for all branches of Pakistans military, getter something that can work in wartime and prone to sanctions, P-3C are ok for peacetime and training etc but we could do with a advanced Chinese MPA
P-3C 不错但时过境迁了，另外印度正买来越来越多美国货，巴军所有分支都渐渐往中国系统转移是一个自然的事情，需要一些在战时容易被禁运又能用的东西。P-3C在和平时期不错，但是我们也可以过拥有中国先进海事巡的日子。
Pakistan has operated P-3Cs for over 15 years i dont think China can learn anything new from them although they are great aircraft
巴方已经使用 P-3C 超过15年了我不认为中国还能从中学到什么新东西，尽管这是款不错的飞机。
i just wonder how good the radar is on this aircraft and also the IR camera, P-8 can see a snorkal in the dark from miles away, but i think the systems will be advanced after seeing ZDK-03 so means its a top end aircraft
我只想知道这飞机的雷达有多好，红外相机也是。P-8 能在黑暗中很远以外看到潜望镜，但是在看到 ZDK-03 有多碉堡以后我想这个的系统会很先进。
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07-22-2012 #31
Red___Sword
Junior Member
Damn, Jeff, as you maybe noticed, I have now ventured into the inside of the Great Firewall. Your pics at posts #21 and #23 - for the constant flambite and potential instigate of mass anti-socialism rebellion efforts, imageshack and blogspot has been officially set into the nation's cyber dustbin.
靠，劫夫，如你可能注意到的，我已经突破进入 绿坝 的里面了。你在 21楼，23楼的图片——因为长期挑衅性和可能煽动大规模反社会主义报动【报动，报纸运动】，imageshack 和 blogspot 被正式扔到了我国的赛博垃圾堆里面了。
However, I noticed as the author of DRAGON'S FURY, our friendly geo-political public relation cooperation partner, your jeffhead.com domain is considered safe to our national security and the pic at post #17, I can clearly see.
但是，我注意到做为 DRAGON'S FURY 龙之怒 【红剑注，红色中国与阿拉子民联合向美国和西方世界发动进攻的军事架空小说，亚马逊上有售，坑爹35美元一本】 的作者的你——我国地缘政治与公共关系的友好合作伙伴，你的 jeffhead.com 域名被我们的国安认为是人畜无害的，你17楼的照片，我能清楚看到。
Can you re-post the #21 and #23 pics to your domain?
你能重新把21，23楼图片发你自己域里面再贴出来吗？
PS. - And maybe they are secretly making a knock-off version of EAGLE'S FURY from your idea of DRAGON'S FURY, the PSB has blocked the dragonsfuryseries.com domain as well.
另外，也许是经你启发，他们可能在秘密制作一部 EAGLE'S FURY 鹰之怒 的山寨版小说，公共安全专家局把你的小说专属地址 dragonsfuryseries.com 也给斧正了。
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本文将以同名 ID 发往超大，供国内读者好生研判。
——10分钟后回来，放弃。权限不够，各种发帖限制。欢迎龙腾常驻超大等军网的高等级网友，尽量保持文章格式的，注明原作者，转发过去，给国内读者研判，存档，分析数据。
龙腾原贴:: http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-73296-1-1.html
07-14-2012 #21
引用18楼：
[qupte]
“解放军海军至少在开发 Y-8 反潜/海事巡逻 机，现在需要批量生产来完全照顾到这个问题。我认为批量生产 Il-38 可以做为一个可行的临时措施，如果它们还有生产的话”
[/quote]
How many of these have they actually built? Are any in service? I thought it was still in test.
这个他们事实上建造了多少？有任何处于服役状态的吗？我以为它还在测试中。
Is it this aricraft:
是这个吗？
【红叉叉】
or this one:
或者这个？
【红叉叉】
I am under the impression it is the latter.
我以为是后者。
The latter appears to be a newer airframe and a production run of these in good numbers with strong ASW capabilities and armament would be a good answer for the PLAN.
后者看上去有更新的机身，并且带强反潜能力和武装的这个批量生产可以是解放军海军的答卷。
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07-14-2012 #22
asif iqbal
Junior Member
What is the last picture? Looks like its a modern aircraft and can carry a bomb bay easily
最后一张图片是什么？看上去是一架现代化飞机并能轻松拥有一个炸弹仓。
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07-14-2012 #23
Jeff Head
Senior Member
全文引用22楼
Ok, the first photo is the Y-8X, a maritime/ASW patrol aircraft in service since the 1980s. I do not know how many were built, byt apparently there is consensus that the PLAN is lacking in long range ASW so their capabilities must be outdated.
哦剋，第一张照片是 Y-8X，一型自80年代以来服役的海事/反潜巡逻机。我不知道具体造了多少，但显然大家对于解放军缺乏远程反潜拥有共识所以它们的能力可能落后了。
This is the second aircraft:
这是第二款飞机：
【红叉叉】
A newer Matirime/ASW patrol aircraft first seen in the last year or two. I do not know how many have been built and what stage of testing they are. I do not think any are in service yet, but do not know. I've seen it refered to as the Y-8Q GX6 and the Y-9, but again, do not know. Apparently it is thought that this will be a stronger ASW platform, that is much newer and if the PLAN builds a good number of them they will begin addressing that long range ASW need.
一型去年左右首见的新款海事/反潜巡逻机。我不知道造了多少以及测试到什么阶段了。我不认为其已经服役，但说不准。我看到过它被称为 Y-8Q GX6 和 Y-9，但再一次，说不准。显然这被认为是一个更强更新的反潜平台，如果解放军造了不少，那么就是在回应那个远程反潜不足。
Notice the MAD boom on the tail, the chin mounted surface radar, and the bomb bays.
注意那个屁股，下巴海面雷达，和炸弹仓。
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07-14-2012 #24
asif iqbal
Junior Member
That platform looks more similar to Y-9, but then the platform for ZDK-03 looks like Y-9
这个看上去更像Y-9，但是 ZDK-03 平台看上去像 Y-9。
Clearly China Is addressing the ASW issue with this aircraft
显然中国正在用这款飞机回应反潜问题。
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07-15-2012 #25
hmmwv
Member
It's GX6 ASW plane which is based on the Y8F600/Y9 transport plane platform, the same platform is used for all other newer specialty aircraft (AEW&C, ELINT, EW, C&C, etc). The basic Y9 transport variant has also been recently sighted. Currently there are 41+ GX series aircraft. Out of them only about half are variants of the Y8F600/Y9 platform. Initially production rate was extremely limited at 1 per month, the recent surge of numbers of GX5, 6, and Y9 suggest production rate picked up significantly, my guess would be 3-4 per month, if the Y8C line is converted to Y8F600/Y9 production I expect that number to jump to 5-6 per month. But I don't see that happening until late 2013 or early 2014 at the earliest.
是基于 Y8F600/Y9 运输机平台的 GX6 反潜机，同一款平台被用于其他所有特殊用途飞机（预警，电侦，电子战，指控，等等）。基本Y9运输型最近也被翻墙到了。现在有41多架 GX 系列飞机，其中只有一半左右是 Y8F600/Y9 平台。初期产能被极度限定在一架每月，最近井喷的 GX5,6,Y9 意味着产能极大提高，我猜3－4架每月，如果 Y8C 生产线被转成 Y8F600/Y9，我期望其跳到5－6架每月的产能。但我想那最快要到2013末或2014初。
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07-15-2012 #26
asif iqbal
Junior Member
Rather than getting ex-US PC-3s I think it would be good if Pakisan bought this type of aircraft from China, establishing a ASW squadron of these aircraft would be great assets for the navy and a great addition to the current 4 x ZDK-03 we already operate
与其搞美国 PC3 我想巴基斯坦还不如买中国的这款，建立一个这样机型的反潜中队将是在我们现有的4架 ZDK-03 的基础上给海军的重大加强。
If it has a bomb bay and chin mounted radar it looks like China knows exactly what kind of ASW aircraft it needs, in addition the seas and coast around Pakistan have very dramatic change in salinity and using towed arrays has been a petty difficult task as Pakistan has already tested, having one of these aircraft would address that challenge and also help development of this aircraft
如果它有下巴雷达和炸弹仓看得出中国找准了他最需要什么样的反潜机，另外巴基斯坦沿岸和沿海的盐度有极动态变化而巴基斯坦已经测试了用拖曳阵列极其困难，来一架这型飞机将应付这个挑战并能帮助开发这款飞机。
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07-15-2012 #27
plawolf
Senior Member
全文引用26楼
Are Pakistan paying cash for their PC3s? I was under the impression that they were being provided as part of America's military assistance package to Pakistan. If that is the case, then it is easy to see why Pakistan is going for PC3s instead of trying to get airframe commonality between their AWACS and MPA fleets.
巴基斯坦给 PC3 付现金吗？我印象中它们是美国对巴军援的一部分。如果是那样的话，那么很容易就能明白为什么巴基斯坦会要 PC3 而不是试着给他的预警与海事巡部队找个通用机体。
In addition, it could easily be that even if Pakistan wants this MPA, they might have to wait many years to take delivery since I would expect the PLANAF to be placing a quite substantial order once this bird becomes operational.
另外，即使巴基斯坦想要这个海事巡，他们也要等几年才能收获，因为我想一旦成型解放军海航会下个大订单先。
On top of that, this MPA is still new and untested. For the Pakistanis, given the choice between a mature, proven and very well established and respected MPA and a newly designed one still in development, one could easily see why they would go with the proven choice.
除此之外，这款海事巡还依然新而未试。对于巴基斯坦来说，在一款成熟，经验证，优良推广和口碑好的海事巡与一款依然在研发当中选，人们能显见他们为什么选择经验证的那个。
A more suspicious person might also suggest that China might have also preferred it if Pakistan went the PC3 as given the close relationship between Pakistan and China, they might be hoping that Pakistan might give them some performance benchmarks, design solutions and other useful info they might have gleamed from the PC3 design that could massively aid the development of China's own MPA. Maybe Chinese engineers might even get first hand access to PC3s.
一个怀疑论者可以更进一步认为也许中国会希望巴基斯坦搞来 PC3，鉴于中巴紧密关系，他们可能希望巴方能提供一些测试基准值，设计方案和其他能管窥 PC3 设计并极大帮助中国自己的海事巡研发的有用信息。也许中国工程师甚至能拿到 PC3 一手资料。
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07-16-2012 #28
Rauf
New Member
PN P3-Cs were acquired via $1.3+ Billion Military aid, not cash by Pak, F-16s Block 52+ and MLU is/were paid by Pak.
巴海军 P3-C 是通过13多亿美元军援，而不是巴军现金支付；F-16 Block 52+ 和 MLU 是巴军买的。
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07-16-2012 #29
asif iqbal
Junior Member
全文引用28楼
That is incorrect
不对
Pakistan orders as follows
巴军订单如下
3 x P-3C Orion Update-2.5 ordered in 1988 embargod but then finally deliverd between 1996-1997 for $139 million
3架P-3C Orion Update-2.5，1988年订购，被制裁禁运了不过后来在1996到97年以1.39亿美元交付。
8 x P-3CUP Orion orderd in 2005 and delivered between 2007-2011 paid by $970 million in US aid
8架P-3CUP Orion 2005年订购并在2007到2011年以9.7亿美元援助交付。
the 8 selected are ex-US
8架前美国货身世
PCN BuNo C/n Arrival Date Previous Unit
AN2P0165 159511 5629 13-JUL-95 VP-92, NAS Brunswick, ME.
AN2P0166 159890 5641 10-AUG-95 VP-69, NAS Whidbey Island, WA.
AN2P0171 159883 5634 21-SEP-95 VP-69, NAS Whidbey Island, WA.
AN2P0174 159505 5623 30-MAY-96 VP-69, NAS Whidbey Island, WA.
AN2P0175 159510 5628 30-MAY-96 VP-69, NAS Whidbey Island, WA.
AN2P0176 159509 5627 06-AUG-96 VP-65, NAS Point Mugu, CA.
AN2P0178 159508 5626 17-SEP-96 VP-94, NAS New Orleans, LA.
AN2P0184 160289 5652 16-DEC-97 VP-30, NAS Jacksonville, FL.
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07-16-2012 #30
asif iqbal
Junior Member
全文引用27楼
well P-8 isnt going to India in a hurry, and the appearance of this type of aircraft with that MAD tail boom says alot, clearly China is looking for a serious patrol aircraft here and the fact we see bomb bays is just amazing
额 P-8 不会立马到印度，而这款飞机带着 （MAD，Magnetic Analyse Dune）磁探测鼓【红剑注，缩写瞎猜的】尾翼现身本身就说明了很多事，显然中国需要一款够劲的巡逻机，而这飞机竟然带着炸弹仓本身就碉堡了。
P-3C are good but they are getting on, plus India is buying more and more American equipment the shift to Chinese systems is a natural transition for all branches of Pakistans military, getter something that can work in wartime and prone to sanctions, P-3C are ok for peacetime and training etc but we could do with a advanced Chinese MPA
P-3C 不错但时过境迁了，另外印度正买来越来越多美国货，巴军所有分支都渐渐往中国系统转移是一个自然的事情，需要一些在战时容易被禁运又能用的东西。P-3C在和平时期不错，但是我们也可以过拥有中国先进海事巡的日子。
Pakistan has operated P-3Cs for over 15 years i dont think China can learn anything new from them although they are great aircraft
巴方已经使用 P-3C 超过15年了我不认为中国还能从中学到什么新东西，尽管这是款不错的飞机。
i just wonder how good the radar is on this aircraft and also the IR camera, P-8 can see a snorkal in the dark from miles away, but i think the systems will be advanced after seeing ZDK-03 so means its a top end aircraft
我只想知道这飞机的雷达有多好，红外相机也是。P-8 能在黑暗中很远以外看到潜望镜，但是在看到 ZDK-03 有多碉堡以后我想这个的系统会很先进。
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07-22-2012 #31
Red___Sword
Junior Member
Damn, Jeff, as you maybe noticed, I have now ventured into the inside of the Great Firewall. Your pics at posts #21 and #23 - for the constant flambite and potential instigate of mass anti-socialism rebellion efforts, imageshack and blogspot has been officially set into the nation's cyber dustbin.
靠，劫夫，如你可能注意到的，我已经突破进入 绿坝 的里面了。你在 21楼，23楼的图片——因为长期挑衅性和可能煽动大规模反社会主义报动【报动，报纸运动】，imageshack 和 blogspot 被正式扔到了我国的赛博垃圾堆里面了。
However, I noticed as the author of DRAGON'S FURY, our friendly geo-political public relation cooperation partner, your jeffhead.com domain is considered safe to our national security and the pic at post #17, I can clearly see.
但是，我注意到做为 DRAGON'S FURY 龙之怒 【红剑注，红色中国与阿拉子民联合向美国和西方世界发动进攻的军事架空小说，亚马逊上有售，坑爹35美元一本】 的作者的你——我国地缘政治与公共关系的友好合作伙伴，你的 jeffhead.com 域名被我们的国安认为是人畜无害的，你17楼的照片，我能清楚看到。
Can you re-post the #21 and #23 pics to your domain?
你能重新把21，23楼图片发你自己域里面再贴出来吗？
PS. - And maybe they are secretly making a knock-off version of EAGLE'S FURY from your idea of DRAGON'S FURY, the PSB has blocked the dragonsfuryseries.com domain as well.
另外，也许是经你启发，他们可能在秘密制作一部 EAGLE'S FURY 鹰之怒 的山寨版小说，公共安全专家局把你的小说专属地址 dragonsfuryseries.com 也给斧正了。
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本文将以同名 ID 发往超大，供国内读者好生研判。
——10分钟后回来，放弃。权限不够，各种发帖限制。欢迎龙腾常驻超大等军网的高等级网友，尽量保持文章格式的，注明原作者，转发过去，给国内读者研判，存档，分析数据。
龙腾原贴:: http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-73296-1-1.html
讨论相当理性，让人看贴看得很舒服
理性个P。这句：“美国海军组织20艘核潜艇到台湾海峡清除解放军柴电潜艇”。
别拍洋马屁了，要是这些发言是中文，你肯定认为他们是铁血的而骂娘。
很有营养的一篇帖子，我准备转过来LS抢先了。MD也不乏有理性之人。对自己的战斗力是信心满满，对我兔的非对称战略是相当重视和头痛。很长时间没有看到这样的帖子了。欢迎大家拍砖！
这类长文在CD反而没市场了么？
美国佬的 核潜艇优势 实在是太大了…
我感觉至少最近10年 如果 东海 或者 南海打起来， 我们的航母 也就是 马岛战争时期 阿根廷那航母的 角色 ----- 远离战区 打酱油~
我感觉至少最近10年 如果 东海 或者 南海打起来， 我们的航母 也就是 马岛战争时期 阿根廷那航母的 角色 ----- 远离战区 打酱油~
吃肉兔 发表于 2012-7-25 02:40 
07-14-2012 #21
在j20出现前我们也认为MD的空中优势“实在是太大了”。如果中美发生热战的话那将是两个体系的对抗，某某优势只是其中一环。最重要的是，MD可以选择对核五常之一的中国开战，但却无法决定战争的规模及何时结束。可以自由地决定何时开始、何时结束、及战争的规模，正是这种不对称优势MD才能随心所欲地对伊、阿等诸小国开战。对中国这一切就失效了，面对冲突带来的系统性风险光强调潜艇的优势又有什么用呢？至于台湾，MD又愿意为他支付多大的账单呢？对于致力于恢复历史地位的中国，台湾是必须的但只是个开始。
07-14-2012 #21
在j20出现前我们也认为MD的空中优势“实在是太大了”。如果中美发生热战的话那将是两个体系的对抗，某某优势只是其中一环。最重要的是，MD可以选择对核五常之一的中国开战，但却无法决定战争的规模及何时结束。可以自由地决定何时开始、何时结束、及战争的规模，正是这种不对称优势MD才能随心所欲地对伊、阿等诸小国开战。对中国这一切就失效了，面对冲突带来的系统性风险光强调潜艇的优势又有什么用呢？至于台湾，MD又愿意为他支付多大的账单呢？对于致力于恢复历史地位的中国，台湾是必须的但只是个开始。
两个问题，一个是八路没有好的载具！另一个是没有好的声学处理设备！这两个解决了，剩下的就是小意思了！
无论如何，感谢译者的辛苦工作。
看得过瘾~~~~~~~
爷爷的儿子 发表于 2012-7-25 09:12
美国佬的 核潜艇优势 实在是太大了…
我感觉至少最近10年 如果 东海 或者 南海打起来， 我们的航母 也就 ...
别忘了中国也有核潜艇而且“数量不明”。这点MD能不忌惮？
美国佬的 核潜艇优势 实在是太大了…
我感觉至少最近10年 如果 东海 或者 南海打起来， 我们的航母 也就 ...
别忘了中国也有核潜艇而且“数量不明”。这点MD能不忌惮？
在j20出现前我们也认为MD的空中优势“实在是太大了”。如果中美发生热战的话那将是两个体系的对抗，某某优 ...
不可能 美中现在是相爱相杀 不会有哪一方主动扩大冲突规模的
不可能 美中现在是相爱相杀 不会有哪一方主动扩大冲突规模的
暗白 发表于 2012-7-26 01:54
别忘了中国也有核潜艇而且“数量不明”。这点MD能不忌惮？
就目前公布的那些核潜艇的技术水平 来说~
实在不知道有什么好忌惮的~
别忘了中国也有核潜艇而且“数量不明”。这点MD能不忌惮？
就目前公布的那些核潜艇的技术水平 来说~
实在不知道有什么好忌惮的~
TG一般喜欢藏着盖着，特别是看不见的东西
关于潜艇，看看蛟龙能多少得到一些有用的信息
关于潜艇，看看蛟龙能多少得到一些有用的信息
看完了，又学会了新的姿势- -~~
我想我们肯定有我们的海底声纳阵列·····配合水雷····好吧···我又YY了···
昨天看过了啊 回复被吃掉了吗。。还是说是别人发的。。
这是一篇比较有营养的帖子，证明MD人民中也有真正在研究对手的人，而不是完全一群喷子
http://lt.cjdby.net/thread-1423858-1-2.html 找到了 我就说我昨天看过这个。。 翻译的很好啊
中美在搞基，打得起来吗？另外台湾人现在独立与不独立有什么区别？除了脑残的绿营谁愿意只为换个口号而别灭？我怀疑绿营有日本背景，是日本鬼子对付我们的牌。 谁愿意为台湾接受付出那么长的账单？除了TG外没人愿意
爷爷的儿子 发表于 2012-7-26 08:58
就目前公布的那些核潜艇的技术水平 来说~
实在不知道有什么好忌惮的~
核潜艇在武器中目前属于最高机密。光靠网上的风声就能知道TG的底细？？
就目前公布的那些核潜艇的技术水平 来说~
实在不知道有什么好忌惮的~
核潜艇在武器中目前属于最高机密。光靠网上的风声就能知道TG的底细？？