3000英里的隧道？娇姬堂大学的小屁孩在研究

美国学生研究中国核地道  原载＜＜华盛顿邮报＞＞

http://news.yahoo.com/digging-ch ... nels-013008319.html

看来很多事情不怕困难，就怕认真。内容摘要如下：

Georgetown大学的一个本科生小组从３年前开始研究中国的二炮核地道。由任前五角大楼官员的教授带领，小组从最初２、３个人扩大到２０多人。

０８年川震时的深山救援新闻片段包括了核人员的抢险，这引起了那个教授的注意，认为那里可能是核武器的储存地点。研究的对象包括卫星图片，美军的内部资料,中英文网站，军事论坛，博客, 当地的新闻报道，军事刊物和关于二炮的电视剧。他们甚至观看中国国内的视频网站和下载到中国军事院校的课程教学纲要。

耗费无数时间后，搜索结果汇编成１４０万字的数据库。通过对各种细节的大量分析，他们已经能够用三角定位的方法确定数条隧道的位置和具体储存导弹的类型。最大的突破是通过某个学生的私人关系搞到一本二炮的４００页的内部手册（看来国内有人泄密了）。通过分析电视剧可以发现二炮的具体操作程序，分析结果竟然与手册上的描述精确吻合。

０９年中国首次公开了二炮核地道，证实了他们的研究想法。

最终研究结果写成一份３６３页的报告，尚未公开。美国的中国军力报告的部分内容便由此而来。但中国核弹头的具体数量还是一团迷雾，研究的初步结论是３０００枚，但这说法遭华盛顿某中国核武专家的不屑。

The Chinese have called it their Underground Great Wall  a vast network of tunnels designed to hide their countrys increasingly sophisticated missile and nuclear arsenal.

For the past three years, a small band of obsessively dedicated students at Georgetown University has called it something else: homework.

Led by their hard-charging professor, a former top Pentagon official, they have translated hundreds of documents, combed through satellite imagery, obtained restricted Chinese military documents and waded through hundreds of gigabytes of online data.

The result of their effort? The largest body of public knowledge about thousands of miles of tunnels dug by the Second Artillery Corps, a secretive branch of the Chinese military in charge of protecting and deploying its ballistic missiles and nuclear warheads.

The study is yet to be released, but already it has sparked a congressional hearing and been circulated among top officials in the Pentagon, including the Air Force vice chief of staff.

Most of the attention has focused on the 363-page studys provocative conclusion  that Chinas nuclear arsenal could be many times larger than the well-established estimates of arms-control experts.

(Graphic: Evidence of Chinas nuclear storage system)

Its not quite a bombshell, but those thoughts and estimates are being checked against what people think they know based on classified information, said a Defense Department strategist who would discuss the study only on the condition of anonymity.

The studys critics, however, have questioned the unorthodox Internet-based research of the students, who drew from sources as disparate as Google Earth, blogs, military journals and, perhaps most startlingly, a fictionalized TV docudrama about Chinese artillery soldiers  the rough equivalent of watching Foxs TV show 24 for insights into U.S. counterterrorism efforts.

But the strongest condemnation has come from nonproliferation experts who worry that the study could fuel arguments for maintaining nuclear weapons in an era when efforts are being made to reduce the worlds post-Cold War stockpiles.

Beyond its impact in the policy world, the project has made a profound mark on the students  including some who have since graduated and taken research jobs with the Defense Department and Congress.

I dont even want to know how many hours I spent on it, said Nick Yarosh, 22, an international politics senior at Georgetown. But you ask people what they did in college, most just say I took this class, I was in this club. I can say I spent it reading Chinese nuclear strategy and Second Artillery manuals. For a nerd like me, that really means something.

For students, an obsession

The students professor, Phillip A. Karber, 65, had spent the Cold War as a top strategist reporting directly to the secretary of defense and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. But it was his early work in defense that cemented his reputation, when he led an elite research team created by Henry Kissinger, who was then the national security adviser, to probe the weaknesses of Soviet forces.

Karber prided himself on recruiting the best intelligence analysts in the government. You didnt just want the highest-ranking or brightest guys, you wanted the ones who were hungry, he said.

In 2008, Karber was volunteering on a committee for the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, a Pentagon agency charged with countering weapons of mass destruction.

After a devastating earthquake struck Sichuan province, the chairman of Karbers committee noticed Chinese news accounts reporting that thousands of radiation technicians were rushing to the region. Then came pictures of strangely collapsed hills and speculation that the caved-in tunnels in the area had held nuclear weapons.

Find out whats going on, the chairman asked Karber, who began looking for analysts again  this time among his students at Georgetown.

The first inductees came from his arms-control classes. Each semester, he set aside a day to show them tantalizing videos and documents he had begun gathering on the tunnels. Then he concluded with a simple question: What do you think it means?

The fact that there were no answers to that really got to me, said former student Dustin Walker, 22. It started out like any other class, tests on this day or that, but people kept coming back, even after graduation. .?.?. We spent hours on our own outside of class on this stuff.

The students worked in their dorms translating military texts. They skipped movie nights for marathon sessions reviewing TV clips of missiles being moved from one tunnel structure to another. While their friends read Shakespeare, they gathered in the library to war-game worst-case scenarios of a Chinese nuclear strike on the United States.

Over time, the team grew from a handful of contributors to roughly two dozen. Most spent their time studying the subterranean activities of the Second Artillery Corps.

While the tunnels existence was something of an open secret among the handful of experts studying Chinas nuclear arms, almost no papers or public reports on the structures existed.

So the students turned to publicly available Chinese sources  military journals, local news reports and online photos posted by Chinese citizens. It helped that Chinas famously secretive military was beginning to release more information, driven by its leaders eagerness to show off Chinas growing power to its citizens.

The Internet also generated a raft of leads: new military forums, blogs and once-obscure local TV reports now posted on the Chinese equivalents of YouTube. Strategic string searches even allowed the students to get behind some military Web sites and download documents such as syllabuses taught at Chinas military academies.

Drudgery and discoveries

The main problem was the sheer amount of translation required.

Each semester, Karber managed to recruit only one or two Chinese-speaking students. So the team assembled a makeshift system to scan images of the books and documents they found. Using text-capture software, they converted those pictures into Chinese characters, which were fed into translation software to produce crude English versions. From those, they highlighted key passages for finer translation by the Chinese speakers.

The downside was the drudgery  hours feeding pages into the scanner. The upside was that after three years, the students had compiled a searchable database of more than 1.4 million words on the Second Artillery and its tunnels.

By combining everything they found in the journals, video clips, satellite imagery and photos, they were able to triangulate the location of several tunnel structures, with a rough idea of what types of missiles were stored in each.

Their work also yielded smaller revelations: how the missiles were kept mobile and transported from structure to structure, as well as tantalizing images and accounts of a missile train and disguised passenger rail cars to move Chinas long-range missiles.

To facilitate the work, Karber set up research rooms for the students at his home in Great Falls. He bought Apple computers and large flat-screen monitors for their video work and obtained small research grants for those who wanted to work through the summer. When work ran late, many crashed in his basements spare room.

I got fat working on this thing because I didnt go to the gym anymore. It was that intense, said Yarosh, who has continued on the project this year not for credit but purely as a hobby. Its not the typical college course. Dr. Karber just tells you the objective and gives you total freedom to figure out how to get there. That level of trust can be liberating.

Some of the biggest breakthroughs came after members of Karbers team used personal connections in China to obtain a 400-page manual produced by the Second Artillery and usually available only to Chinas military personnel.

Another source of insight was a pair of semi-fictionalized TV series chronicling the lives of Second Artillery soldiers.

The plots were often overwrought with melodrama  one series centers on a brigade commander who struggles to whip his slipshod unit into shape while juggling relationship problems with his glamorous Olympic-swim-coach girlfriend. But they also included surprisingly accurate depictions of artillery units procedures that lined up perfectly with the military manual and other documents.

Until someone showed us on screen how exactly these missile deployments were done from the tunnels, we only had disparate pieces. The TV shows gave us the big picture of how it all worked together, Karber said.

A bigger Chinese arsenal?

In December 2009, just as the students began making progress, the Chinese military admitted for the first time that the Second Artillery had indeed been building a network of tunnels. According to a report by state-run CCTV, China had more than 3,000 miles of tunnels  roughly the distance between Boston and San Francisco  including deep underground bases that could withstand multiple nuclear attacks.

The news shocked Karber and his team. It confirmed the direction of their research, but it also highlighted how little attention the tunnels were garnering outside East Asia.

The lack of interest, particularly in the U.S. media, demonstrated Chinas unique position in the world of nuclear arms.

For decades, the focus has been on the two powers with the largest nuclear stockpiles by far  the United States, with 5,000 warheads available for deployment, and Russia, which has 8,000.

But of the five nuclear weapons states recognized by the Non-Proliferation Treaty, China has been the most secretive. While the United States and Russia are bound by bilateral treaties that require on-site inspections, disclosure of forces and bans on certain missiles, China is not.

The assumption for years has been that the Chinese arsenal is relatively small  anywhere from 80 to 400 warheads.

China has encouraged that perception. As the only one of the five original nuclear states with a no-first-use policy, it insists that it keeps a small stockpile only for minimum deterrence.

Given Chinas lack of transparency, Karber argues, all the experts have to work with are assumptions, which can often be dead wrong. As an example, Karber often recounts to his students his experience of going to Russia with former defense secretary Frank C. Carlucci to discuss U.S. help in securing the Russian nuclear arsenal.

The United States had offered Russia about 20,000 canisters designed to safeguard warheads  a number based on U.S. estimates at the time.

The generals told Karber they needed 40,000.

Skepticism among analysts

At the end of the tunnel study, Karber cautions that the same could happen with China. Based on the number of tunnels the Second Artillery is digging and its increasing deployment of missiles, he argues, Chinas nuclear warheads could number as many as 3,000.

It is an assertion that has provoked heated responses from the arms-control community.

Gregory Kulacki, a China nuclear analyst at the Union of Concerned Scientists, publicly condemned Karbers report at a recent lecture in Washington. In an interview afterward, he called the 3,000 figure ridiculous and said the studys methodology  especially its inclusion of posts from Chinese bloggers  was incompetent and lazy.

The fact that theyre building tunnels could actually reinforce the exact opposite point, he argued. With more tunnels and a better chance of survivability, they may think they dont need as many warheads to strike back.

Reaction from others has been more moderate.

Their research has value, but it also shows the danger of the Internet, said Hans M. Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists. Kristensen faulted some of the students interpretation of the satellite images.

One thing his report accomplishes, I think, is it highlights the uncertainty about what China has, said Mark Stokes, executive director of the Project 2049 Institute, a think tank. Theres no question Chinas been investing in tunnels, and to look at those efforts and pose this question is worthwhile.

This year, the Defense Departments annual report on Chinas military highlighted for the first time the Second Artillerys work on new tunnels, partly a result of Karbers report, according to some Pentagon officials. And in the spring, shortly before a visit to China, some in the office of then-Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates were briefed on the study.

I think its fair to say senior officials here have keyed upon the importance of this work, said one Pentagon officer who was not authorized to speak on the record.

For Karber, provoking such debate means that he and his small army of undergrads have succeeded.

I dont have the slightest idea how many nuclear weapons China really has, but neither does anyone else in the arms-control community, he said. Thats the problem with China  no one really knows except them.


美国学生研究中国核地道  原载＜＜华盛顿邮报＞＞

http://news.yahoo.com/digging-ch ... nels-013008319.html

看来很多事情不怕困难，就怕认真。内容摘要如下：

Georgetown大学的一个本科生小组从３年前开始研究中国的二炮核地道。由任前五角大楼官员的教授带领，小组从最初２、３个人扩大到２０多人。

０８年川震时的深山救援新闻片段包括了核人员的抢险，这引起了那个教授的注意，认为那里可能是核武器的储存地点。研究的对象包括卫星图片，美军的内部资料,中英文网站，军事论坛，博客, 当地的新闻报道，军事刊物和关于二炮的电视剧。他们甚至观看中国国内的视频网站和下载到中国军事院校的课程教学纲要。

耗费无数时间后，搜索结果汇编成１４０万字的数据库。通过对各种细节的大量分析，他们已经能够用三角定位的方法确定数条隧道的位置和具体储存导弹的类型。最大的突破是通过某个学生的私人关系搞到一本二炮的４００页的内部手册（看来国内有人泄密了）。通过分析电视剧可以发现二炮的具体操作程序，分析结果竟然与手册上的描述精确吻合。

０９年中国首次公开了二炮核地道，证实了他们的研究想法。

最终研究结果写成一份３６３页的报告，尚未公开。美国的中国军力报告的部分内容便由此而来。但中国核弹头的具体数量还是一团迷雾，研究的初步结论是３０００枚，但这说法遭华盛顿某中国核武专家的不屑。

The Chinese have called it their Underground Great Wall  a vast network of tunnels designed to hide their countrys increasingly sophisticated missile and nuclear arsenal.

For the past three years, a small band of obsessively dedicated students at Georgetown University has called it something else: homework.

Led by their hard-charging professor, a former top Pentagon official, they have translated hundreds of documents, combed through satellite imagery, obtained restricted Chinese military documents and waded through hundreds of gigabytes of online data.

The result of their effort? The largest body of public knowledge about thousands of miles of tunnels dug by the Second Artillery Corps, a secretive branch of the Chinese military in charge of protecting and deploying its ballistic missiles and nuclear warheads.

The study is yet to be released, but already it has sparked a congressional hearing and been circulated among top officials in the Pentagon, including the Air Force vice chief of staff.

Most of the attention has focused on the 363-page studys provocative conclusion  that Chinas nuclear arsenal could be many times larger than the well-established estimates of arms-control experts.

(Graphic: Evidence of Chinas nuclear storage system)

Its not quite a bombshell, but those thoughts and estimates are being checked against what people think they know based on classified information, said a Defense Department strategist who would discuss the study only on the condition of anonymity.

The studys critics, however, have questioned the unorthodox Internet-based research of the students, who drew from sources as disparate as Google Earth, blogs, military journals and, perhaps most startlingly, a fictionalized TV docudrama about Chinese artillery soldiers  the rough equivalent of watching Foxs TV show 24 for insights into U.S. counterterrorism efforts.

But the strongest condemnation has come from nonproliferation experts who worry that the study could fuel arguments for maintaining nuclear weapons in an era when efforts are being made to reduce the worlds post-Cold War stockpiles.

Beyond its impact in the policy world, the project has made a profound mark on the students  including some who have since graduated and taken research jobs with the Defense Department and Congress.

I dont even want to know how many hours I spent on it, said Nick Yarosh, 22, an international politics senior at Georgetown. But you ask people what they did in college, most just say I took this class, I was in this club. I can say I spent it reading Chinese nuclear strategy and Second Artillery manuals. For a nerd like me, that really means something.

For students, an obsession

The students professor, Phillip A. Karber, 65, had spent the Cold War as a top strategist reporting directly to the secretary of defense and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. But it was his early work in defense that cemented his reputation, when he led an elite research team created by Henry Kissinger, who was then the national security adviser, to probe the weaknesses of Soviet forces.

Karber prided himself on recruiting the best intelligence analysts in the government. You didnt just want the highest-ranking or brightest guys, you wanted the ones who were hungry, he said.

In 2008, Karber was volunteering on a committee for the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, a Pentagon agency charged with countering weapons of mass destruction.

After a devastating earthquake struck Sichuan province, the chairman of Karbers committee noticed Chinese news accounts reporting that thousands of radiation technicians were rushing to the region. Then came pictures of strangely collapsed hills and speculation that the caved-in tunnels in the area had held nuclear weapons.

Find out whats going on, the chairman asked Karber, who began looking for analysts again  this time among his students at Georgetown.

The first inductees came from his arms-control classes. Each semester, he set aside a day to show them tantalizing videos and documents he had begun gathering on the tunnels. Then he concluded with a simple question: What do you think it means?

The fact that there were no answers to that really got to me, said former student Dustin Walker, 22. It started out like any other class, tests on this day or that, but people kept coming back, even after graduation. .?.?. We spent hours on our own outside of class on this stuff.

The students worked in their dorms translating military texts. They skipped movie nights for marathon sessions reviewing TV clips of missiles being moved from one tunnel structure to another. While their friends read Shakespeare, they gathered in the library to war-game worst-case scenarios of a Chinese nuclear strike on the United States.

Over time, the team grew from a handful of contributors to roughly two dozen. Most spent their time studying the subterranean activities of the Second Artillery Corps.

While the tunnels existence was something of an open secret among the handful of experts studying Chinas nuclear arms, almost no papers or public reports on the structures existed.

So the students turned to publicly available Chinese sources  military journals, local news reports and online photos posted by Chinese citizens. It helped that Chinas famously secretive military was beginning to release more information, driven by its leaders eagerness to show off Chinas growing power to its citizens.

The Internet also generated a raft of leads: new military forums, blogs and once-obscure local TV reports now posted on the Chinese equivalents of YouTube. Strategic string searches even allowed the students to get behind some military Web sites and download documents such as syllabuses taught at Chinas military academies.

Drudgery and discoveries

The main problem was the sheer amount of translation required.

Each semester, Karber managed to recruit only one or two Chinese-speaking students. So the team assembled a makeshift system to scan images of the books and documents they found. Using text-capture software, they converted those pictures into Chinese characters, which were fed into translation software to produce crude English versions. From those, they highlighted key passages for finer translation by the Chinese speakers.

The downside was the drudgery  hours feeding pages into the scanner. The upside was that after three years, the students had compiled a searchable database of more than 1.4 million words on the Second Artillery and its tunnels.

By combining everything they found in the journals, video clips, satellite imagery and photos, they were able to triangulate the location of several tunnel structures, with a rough idea of what types of missiles were stored in each.

Their work also yielded smaller revelations: how the missiles were kept mobile and transported from structure to structure, as well as tantalizing images and accounts of a missile train and disguised passenger rail cars to move Chinas long-range missiles.

To facilitate the work, Karber set up research rooms for the students at his home in Great Falls. He bought Apple computers and large flat-screen monitors for their video work and obtained small research grants for those who wanted to work through the summer. When work ran late, many crashed in his basements spare room.

I got fat working on this thing because I didnt go to the gym anymore. It was that intense, said Yarosh, who has continued on the project this year not for credit but purely as a hobby. Its not the typical college course. Dr. Karber just tells you the objective and gives you total freedom to figure out how to get there. That level of trust can be liberating.

Some of the biggest breakthroughs came after members of Karbers team used personal connections in China to obtain a 400-page manual produced by the Second Artillery and usually available only to Chinas military personnel.

Another source of insight was a pair of semi-fictionalized TV series chronicling the lives of Second Artillery soldiers.

The plots were often overwrought with melodrama  one series centers on a brigade commander who struggles to whip his slipshod unit into shape while juggling relationship problems with his glamorous Olympic-swim-coach girlfriend. But they also included surprisingly accurate depictions of artillery units procedures that lined up perfectly with the military manual and other documents.

Until someone showed us on screen how exactly these missile deployments were done from the tunnels, we only had disparate pieces. The TV shows gave us the big picture of how it all worked together, Karber said.

A bigger Chinese arsenal?

In December 2009, just as the students began making progress, the Chinese military admitted for the first time that the Second Artillery had indeed been building a network of tunnels. According to a report by state-run CCTV, China had more than 3,000 miles of tunnels  roughly the distance between Boston and San Francisco  including deep underground bases that could withstand multiple nuclear attacks.

The news shocked Karber and his team. It confirmed the direction of their research, but it also highlighted how little attention the tunnels were garnering outside East Asia.

The lack of interest, particularly in the U.S. media, demonstrated Chinas unique position in the world of nuclear arms.

For decades, the focus has been on the two powers with the largest nuclear stockpiles by far  the United States, with 5,000 warheads available for deployment, and Russia, which has 8,000.

But of the five nuclear weapons states recognized by the Non-Proliferation Treaty, China has been the most secretive. While the United States and Russia are bound by bilateral treaties that require on-site inspections, disclosure of forces and bans on certain missiles, China is not.

The assumption for years has been that the Chinese arsenal is relatively small  anywhere from 80 to 400 warheads.

China has encouraged that perception. As the only one of the five original nuclear states with a no-first-use policy, it insists that it keeps a small stockpile only for minimum deterrence.

Given Chinas lack of transparency, Karber argues, all the experts have to work with are assumptions, which can often be dead wrong. As an example, Karber often recounts to his students his experience of going to Russia with former defense secretary Frank C. Carlucci to discuss U.S. help in securing the Russian nuclear arsenal.

The United States had offered Russia about 20,000 canisters designed to safeguard warheads  a number based on U.S. estimates at the time.

The generals told Karber they needed 40,000.

Skepticism among analysts

At the end of the tunnel study, Karber cautions that the same could happen with China. Based on the number of tunnels the Second Artillery is digging and its increasing deployment of missiles, he argues, Chinas nuclear warheads could number as many as 3,000.

It is an assertion that has provoked heated responses from the arms-control community.

Gregory Kulacki, a China nuclear analyst at the Union of Concerned Scientists, publicly condemned Karbers report at a recent lecture in Washington. In an interview afterward, he called the 3,000 figure ridiculous and said the studys methodology  especially its inclusion of posts from Chinese bloggers  was incompetent and lazy.

The fact that theyre building tunnels could actually reinforce the exact opposite point, he argued. With more tunnels and a better chance of survivability, they may think they dont need as many warheads to strike back.

Reaction from others has been more moderate.

Their research has value, but it also shows the danger of the Internet, said Hans M. Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists. Kristensen faulted some of the students interpretation of the satellite images.

One thing his report accomplishes, I think, is it highlights the uncertainty about what China has, said Mark Stokes, executive director of the Project 2049 Institute, a think tank. Theres no question Chinas been investing in tunnels, and to look at those efforts and pose this question is worthwhile.

This year, the Defense Departments annual report on Chinas military highlighted for the first time the Second Artillerys work on new tunnels, partly a result of Karbers report, according to some Pentagon officials. And in the spring, shortly before a visit to China, some in the office of then-Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates were briefed on the study.

I think its fair to say senior officials here have keyed upon the importance of this work, said one Pentagon officer who was not authorized to speak on the record.

For Karber, provoking such debate means that he and his small army of undergrads have succeeded.

I dont have the slightest idea how many nuclear weapons China really has, but neither does anyone else in the arms-control community, he said. Thats the problem with China  no one really knows except them.

战忽局的外派人员素质高

美帝亡我之心不死啊

就怕有心人啊

3000枚？

汶川地震核抢险好像跟地道无关，不过，就让他们认为那儿有核地道吧。

土鳖为了百来颗弹头，造几千km的核隧道那可不实惠啊。

你在哪里看到有写几千英里隧道了？  脑补的太厉害了吧

主要马甲 发表于 2011-12-1 12:03
你在哪里看到有写几千英里隧道了？  脑补的太厉害了吧
会好好说话吗？前面一句问问没问题，我会回答你，后面一句非拖条尾巴出门？裤子上开洞了吗？

尽管如此，不过我也粗鲁地回敬了你，这里请你不要介意。你正儿八经的问题，我是可以回答你的：
CNN上的，在酒店看到的，今天早上早饭前，娇姬堂大学是一个美国的大学Georgetown Univ.
本来是一群大学小屁孩儿的课外活动，我只是觉得这种活动很好玩，中国非军校大学生也可以玩。

造汽 发表于 2011-12-1 12:19
会好好说话吗？前面一句问问没问题，我会回答你，后面一句非拖条尾巴出门？裤子上开洞了吗？

尽管如此 ...
人家说的是研究中国的隧道，没说研究了几千英里隧道，这个区别你还是分的清的吧

主要马甲 发表于 2011-12-1 12:23
人家说的是研究中国的隧道，没说研究了几千英里隧道，这个区别你还是分的清的吧
他们得出“烟酒成果”，说“可能有”三千英里的隧道。
你是看网络版还是今早上看的电视？电视上反复放CCTV放过的二炮镜头和
一些穿着迷彩的人在隧道里挖掘的镜头:D
那个学生项目头儿是一个白胡子教授。还有俩学生接受采访，一个叫什么什么SH，
黄种人样子，估计不是笨狗地区的印度人就是尼泊尔学生。

环球网(微博)记者朱盈库11月30日报道 众所周知，美俄各自拥有4000多枚现役核弹头，占全球核弹头的90%以上，即使按约定进行“大幅”削减，仍在核力量上对中国保持压倒性优势。但美国大学生近日一项非常规项目却得出荒谬结论，宣称中国核武器库可能比目前估计的多很多倍，最多可能达3000枚。这又给了美国军方和政客炒作“中国威胁论”提供了“依据”。

　　法新社11月30日援引美国《华盛顿邮报》的报道称，乔治敦大学一些学生在一位前美国国防部官员的指导下，汇编了关于中国第二炮兵部队地下隧道的资料。这份363页的研究报告尚未出版就在美国引起关注，不仅包括空军副总参谋长的军方高官私下传阅，国会甚至还准备为此召开听证会。

　　这些学生的导师是65岁的菲利普-卡伯，他在冷战时期曾是一名顶级战略家，有资格直接向国防部长和参谋长联席会议主席作报告。报道称，卡伯基于对地下隧道的研究认为，中国最多可能拥有多达3000枚核弹头，这远超出当下所估计的80-400枚。

　　不过，卡伯和他的学生们的研究方法遭到质疑。据悉，他们在编纂这份报告时，不仅引用军事杂志内容、利用谷歌地球和博客等互联网资源，甚至还参考了电视剧内容。而该团队中只有1、2人精通中文，很多翻译工作都是借助软件来完成。

　　法新社报道最后指出，目前尚未得到美国官方对此事的评论。
http://mil.news.sina.com.cn/2011-12-01/0804675775.html

2011-12-1 13:10 上传

主要马甲 发表于 2011-12-1 12:03
你在哪里看到有写几千英里隧道了？  脑补的太厉害了吧
是不是脑补自己看不就知道了？

ls的头像不是敏感词？

我读大学的时候，有个叫“创新杯”的大学生科研竞赛，97还是98年，一个数学系的研究小组成果得了一等奖，但是居然没有公布研究内容，连个名称都没有。

后来通过数学系的同学曲线打听到，那是一个核反击时战斗组织的运筹规划（大意，详细的打听不到），好像说是比原来能减少1/3的准备时间。

这种新闻一开始没几个人看到这很正常，我都会好好回答的，当个笑话茶余饭后一下而已，
偏偏那个马甲哥，出口伤人，于是我也憋不住动了不改动的怒。

那个老头还比喻了，3000英里从哪哪到哪哪，急着出门没听清。

造汽 发表于 2011-12-1 14:08
这种新闻一开始没几个人看到这很正常，我都会好好回答的，当个笑话茶余饭后一下而已，
偏偏那个马甲哥，出 ...
波士顿到旧金山。

3000英里，说这话的人根本没有工程的概念

BlueRageWarrior 发表于 2011-12-1 13:11
CNN说可能多达3000枚核弹头隐藏在3000英里的地道中。

http://www.cnn.com/video/?hpt=hp_t2#/video/best ...

3000英里，说这话的人根本没有工程的概念

横穿北美的地下隧道，这哥们脑袋被门夹了吧

BlueRageWarrior 发表于 2011-12-1 13:12
是不是脑补自己看不就知道了？

横穿北美的地下隧道，这哥们脑袋被门夹了吧

这老头就是Dr. Strangelove 本尊吧。

按照国际军控组织估计的国内钚产量大约是1.8～5t，最高估计是8t，造3000枚核武器也不是一定造不出来。但是打死我也不信TG会把手里的核材料全都变成核弹头，氚产量和导弹产量的限制很大。3000公里隧道甚至3000英里，我觉得按照当年深挖洞的做法，估计倒是有可能。

大秦猛士 发表于 2011-12-1 13:32
我读大学的时候，有个叫“创新杯”的大学生科研竞赛，97还是98年，一个数学系的研究小组成果得了一等奖，但 ...
这是真正的创新啊

其实这是好事，从美国网络屁民反应来看他们都被吓到了，都知道了敢动中国就是地球毁灭，核威慑起作用了。
你说他们怀疑小屁孩情报真实性？放心，西方媒体早就把中国描绘成恶魔，说恶魔有3000多核弹头那是绝配，美国屁民们都相信邪恶独裁不透明的中国还有更多。应该把这个舆论持续造下去，既保证了中国的安全，又可以让美国军火商有借口花钱，美国死的更快。

fire123 发表于 2011-12-2 09:45
其实这是好事，从美国网络屁民反应来看他们都被吓到了，都知道了敢动中国就是地球毁灭，核威慑起作用了。
...
我顶这个！一直觉得我们的核威慑是单方面一厢情愿的，老外甚至有人不知道中国有核武器！

r626 发表于 2011-12-1 08:26
战忽局的外派人员素质高
貌似是韩国人投资的报纸吧，所以。。。

所以说，情报大头都是靠公开资料收集的。保密啥的的确很有必要

大秦猛士 发表于 2011-12-1 13:32
我读大学的时候，有个叫“创新杯”的大学生科研竞赛，97还是98年，一个数学系的研究小组成果得了一等奖，但 ...
那叫“创造杯”

很好，吓死丫的，叫你横

yaoyuan7310 发表于 2011-12-2 21:23
那叫“创造杯”
谢谢，时间久了记错了。

中国学生论文研究如何瘫痪美国电网 引发美方警觉

二炮的地下长城确实有官八股报道过，规模绝不小，而且不止是一条。深挖洞广积粮，兔子是很务实的，而且需要指出的一点是，MD自己挖洞也不少。曾经开放过中途岛地下巷道什么的，他本土也绝不少。典型只许他们搞，不准别人弄，太霸道了

中国威胁论？
中国可不怕，现在流行美国威胁论
有本事大家一起涨军费！
现在中国军人真会炒舆论！

肯定有很多隧道，但3000英里太夸张了 = =

另外，我们来来回回就20枚洲际导弹（按“公认的说法”），挖这么多洞做什么