美国《外交事务》杂志翻译系列——中国崛起的盛名与现实 ...

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原创翻译,《外交事务》原文链接http://www.foreignaffairs.com/ar ... ach-other?page=show

How China and Japan See Each Other

中日对视

By Chalmers Johnson

July 1972

1972年7月

Over the past century the politics of East Asia have been influenced more profoundly by the Sino-Japanese relationship than by any other single factor. Because both the two present-day societies have roots in classical Chinese civilization-only a "heritage" for each today-Chinese and Japanese politicians before World War II often argued that there was a special binding relationship between them. Japan's written language and much of its religious, artistic and moral civilization derive from Chinese culture, while Japan was the primary influence both positively and negatively on whole generations of Chinese revolutionaries, some of whom are still alive and active today. Perhaps because of this common heritage of civilization and mutual influence, the enormous misunderstandings, wars, threats and depredations that have characterized Sino-Japanese relations for a century have tended to take on the ferocity of a family or civil feud. Even though well-educated Chinese and Japanese can learn each other's language rather easily, it is doubtful whether any two peoples in the twentieth century have approached each other with more profoundly misleading stereotypes.

过去百年间东亚政局受中日关系影响最深。由于两国均植根于中国传统文明——现如今都只有遗迹残存——中日政治家们在二战前经常声称两家有着特殊的纽带关系。日本的文字和大部分的宗教、艺术、伦理都源于中国文化;日本则或正面或负面地影响着中国数代革命志士,有些依然在世或还很活跃。也许正是因为双方继承了共同的文明遗产且又相互影响,中日百年来的误解、战争、恐吓、劫掠常如萧蔷恶斗般凶狠怨毒。虽然中日知识分子可以轻松地学会对方的语言,但二十世纪中似乎没有哪两个民族在如此深的成见中进行交往。

Three specific historical occurrences continue to mold Chinese and Japanese attitudes toward each other, in addition to the broader pressures on the two nations of different ideologies and national interests. First, China and Japan reacted to the influence of Western imperialism in the nineteenth century in almost diametrically opposite ways: within a few decades after the Western intrusion Japan had accommodated herself to and incorporated modern technology, whereas China disintegrated as a social system and required a century before she could begin her own modernization under conditions of national unity. Second, prior to the First World War Japan served as an exemplar and model for many Chinese modernizers, a role that the Soviet Union took over after the Bolshevik Revolution; and just as in the case of the Sino-Soviet conflict, this earlier relationship has tended to color later antagonisms with feelings of ingratitude on the one hand and betrayal on the other. Third, Japan's ultimate betrayal, in the eyes of Chinese revolutionaries, was her military intervention in China between 1937 and 1945 in order to suppress by force the Chinese anti-imperialist nationalist movement-a savage crucible in which the Chinese Communist Party obtained a mass following as a result of its championing resistance to Japan.

中日两个拥有不同意识形态和利益的国家承受着来自国际大环境的压力,除此之外,三大历史事件持续地影响着中日对对方的态度。其一、两国在19世纪面对西方帝国主义有着截然不同的反应:在西方入侵数十年之内,日本委屈求全并接纳现代科技;中国社会则崩分离析,直到一个世纪之后才能在全国团结的条件下开始现代化进程。其二、在一战前,许多中国变革人士视日本为楷模和榜样,苏联在布尔什维克革命之后接任这一角色;正如同稍后的中苏冲突,中日这层关系为日后两国交恶蒙上了浓重的感情色彩——一方认为对方不知感恩,另一方则认为遭到背叛。其三、在中国革命者的眼里,最大的背叛莫过于1937至1945年日本为平息中国反日民族主义运动而实施的在华军事干预——在这场残酷的浩劫中,共产党因力主抗日受到大众拥戴。

Of these three elements, perhaps the first is of the greatest long-term significance. Pre-modern China and pre-modern Japan were sociologically quite different societies, and Western imperialist pressure impinged upon each of them in different ways. None the less both were similar enough- common Sinitic civilization, closed to foreign intercourse since the seventeenth century, and forced open by the West in the 1840s and 1850s-to cause members of each society to make invidious comparisons about the performance of the other in the face of common challenges. The Chinese, supremely confident of the superiority of their own culture, reacted with various anti-foreign movements until the end of the century, while the Japanese, after a brief experiment with anti-foreignisrn, gave it up as a lost cause and quickly modernized along Western lines.

这三大历史因素中,也许第一个有着最为深远的意义。近代中日在社会学上相当不同,而且西方帝国主义以不同的方式在两国身上施压。尽管如此,两者还是有很多共性,如汉语文化、17世纪以来的闭关锁国、在19世纪四、五十年代被西方强行打开国门等。在面对共同的挑战时,两个社会的成员以鄙夷的眼光打量着对方的表现。中国人对老祖宗的文明极其自负,将抗击外敌的运动一直进行到19世纪未;而日本人在短暂的挣扎之后,放弃无谓的抵抗,迅速师夷长技。

Among the humiliations suffered by the Chinese, none was more galling than the defeat in 1895 of the "Celestial Empire" (China) by the "Wa dwarfs" (Japanese, as seen by the Chinese), a defeat that resulted in the annexation of Taiwan into the Japanese Empire. The initial Chinese reaction to this defeat, which brought the first true Chinese revolutionary movements into being, was to blame their own inept government; and after 1895, thousands of Chinese students flocked to Japan to learn about the modern world. Over time and in light of Japan's subsequent development as an imperialist power in her own right, Chinese admiration of the Japanese modernization effort changed to a hatred of Japan, the quintessential imperialist villain who kept China weak in order to suck her dry.

在中国人所受的屈辱中,最为刻骨铭心的要数1895年天朝败于倭寇(译注:原文如此),台湾因此被割让给日本帝国。中国人对这一惨败的第一反应就是责怪无能的朝廷,首个真正意义的中国革命由此风起云涌。1895年后,数千名中国留学生蜂拥至日本学习了解现代社会。但随着日本帝国主义霸权的升腾,中国人对日本现代化的祟敬逐渐转化成痛恨——日本,一个置中国于贫弱以便将其榨干的帝国主义死敌。

China and Japan offer two of the clearest archetypes in the so-called third world of alternative responses to Western imperialism. Japan adopted the reformist strategy, grafting Western institutions onto her essentially feudal social structure, changing in subtle ways but at the same time maintaining a distinctive national identity and continuity with the past. China rejected reform, since it seemed to imply an unacceptable accommodation of Confucian culture with barbarian (uncivilized) mores, and was ultimately forced by implacable imperialist pressure to revolution-a revolution in which the traditional culture was to be totally dismantled and replaced with a new culture that could prevent the incessant foreign "humiliations" and restore a sense of national dignity. Reform and revolution remain the two broad alternatives open to the so-called "modernizing" nations; and Japan and China, the one perhaps the most reformist nation in modern history and the other the most revolutionary, exemplify the strengths and weaknesses of each strategy to other nations around the world and to each other.

中日两国提供了所谓第三世界应对西方强权的两大最为清晰的原型。日本采取了改革者的策略,将西方体制嫁接到本国的封建社会,潜移默化,但同时保持独特的国格和历史延续性。中国则拒绝改革,因为改革似乎意味着将儒家文化与蛮夷习俗进行不可接受的调和。中国最终在无情的帝国主义压力之下走向革命——日后,革命将完全击碎传统文化,能够抵御外辱和重铸国家尊严的新文化将取而代之。改革和革命是所谓"正在现代化"的国家面临的两条路,日本——或许是现代史上最曲型的改革国家,中国——最革命的国家,为世上其它国家以及对方展现了不同出路的利弊。

The attitudes that grew up along with these divergent histories persist to the present time and will have an important influence on any future process of Sino-Japanese reconciliation. To the Chinese the Japanese "economic miracle" is not only a threat; it is also an insult. Today the Chinese trade more with Japan than with any other nation, but they do not praise Japan for her economic success, nor do they appear willing to put Sino- Japanese economic coöperation on a stable long-term footing. For that matter, the Chinese do not display much in the way of understanding as to why Japan's economy continues to grow as fast as it does. Premier Chou En- lai argues that Japan's economic power is an inevitable precursor of remilitarization and imperialism, and the Chinese have not thus far shown the slightest willingness to adjust to the fact that Japan's GNP is infinitely greater than China's and will continue to be so for the indefinite future. By hammering away at the inevitability of "revived Japanese militarism" the Chinese may be setting up a self-fulfilling prophecy.

沿着这两条不同的历史轨迹形成的社会心态一直延续至今,并对未来中日和解进程具有重要影响。对于中国人来讲,日本的经济奇迹不但是一个威胁,也是一个羞辱。日本是中国最大的贸易伙伴,但中国人既不称赞日本在经济上的成功,似乎也不愿意将中日经济合作置于稳定、长期的基础之上。就此而言,中国人好像不理解为什么日本经济会如此快速地成长。周恩来总理认为日本的经济实力必将导致军国主义和帝国主义,到目前为止,中国人没有丝毫表示愿意适应日本经济无数倍于中国、并将无限期如此的现实。中国大力鼓吹"日本必将重拾军国主义道路",有可能一语成谶。

The Japanese, on the other hand, seem to be befogged by an equally long- standing inability to take the Chinese seriously. It is perhaps not too far- fetched to describe Japanese attitudes toward their continental neighbors as somewhat comparable to the English or German industrialist's attitude toward an Italian or Spanish aristocrat recently gone into commerce. He admires, and is slightly intimidated by, the ancient cultural achievements to which his modern counterpart is heir, but he finds it almost impossible in the company board room to suggest seriously that the new boy might become a competitor or a threat. Japan today is interested in doing business with China but her interest in the China business is only a slight fraction of her interest in business generally, and Japanese commercial representatives seem quite willing to sign humiliating Chinese communiqués or other anti-Japanese pronouncements drafted by Peking in order to get what trade there is-presumably because Japanese do not take these Chinese pronouncements very seriously. The Japanese are much more concerned about the possibility that another nation might get ahead of them in the China trade than that the Chinese might compete with them successfully in the rest of Asia.

相对地,日本人似乎被长期以来对中国的轻视所麻痹。日本人对华态度有点像英德商人对待刚步入商界的意大利或西班牙贵族。对方祖上的荣光让他心存敬畏,但在公司董事会上,他始终难以相信这个新来的小子在日后有可能成为强劲的对手。日本如今有意到中国做生意,但在华利益不及日本总体经济利益的零头。日本商业代表们似乎挺乐意签署令人难堪的中国公报或其它由北京起草的反日文书,以换取对华贸易——或许是因为日本对此类声明根本无所谓。相比中国人可能有朝一日在全亚洲与其展开竞争,日本人更担心其他国家会捷足先登,在对华贸易上赢得先机。

Even Chinese nuclear weapons do not appear to have caused the Japanese to see China as a potential threat, even though the Japanese dislike atomic testing by anybody. One sign of this Japanese self-confidence vis-à-vis China is the underdeveloped state of Japanese research and training about the Chinese Revolution in the postwar era. Japan's academic and governmental specialists on Chinese communist developments are among the most knowledgeable in the world, but all of them complain of the relatively slight interest in scholarship on China among students and the Japanese public. Even when Chinese events reach the headlines, they are likely to be regarded as mere "news," and not as developments that might vitally affect Japan as a nation.

虽然日本不喜欢任何人进行核试验,但中国的核武器好像并没有促使日本人视其为潜在威胁。日本在中国面前自信满满还表现在日本人在战后对中国革命的研究不足。日本研究中共发展史的院校、政府专家们当属世上最为博学者,但他们毫无例外地报怨日本学生和大众对研究中国不感兴趣。即使中国事件登上报纸头条,日本人也将其视作普通新闻,而不是有可能影响日本的大事件。

None of this is to suggest that the major sources of tension between China and Japan are attitudinal and that there are no real problems. It is rather to point out that the Chinese tend to regard Japan, for good historical reasons, with the utmost suspicion, remembering how quickly the old samurai of the nineteenth century armed themselves with Western weapons and turned these against China. China's stereotypes of Japan seem to preclude a realistic Chinese assessment of how Japan has changed and of the ways in which she may change in the future, always coming back to the undertone of suspicion that Japan's achievements are likely to be at China's expense. Conversely, the Japanese regard the Chinese as still struggling with their interminable revolutions and are inclined to take the Chinese deadly seriously only when it looks as if the Chinese are about to form an alliance with a non-Asian power, say the Soviet Union or the United States, for that might greatly restrict Japan's freedom of access and maneuver in international commerce.

但这并不意味着紧张状况大多源于中日对立心态,或者中日之间并无真正的问题。基于历史上的原因,中国人牢记19世纪的日本武士是如何用洋人武器武装自己,转而进攻中国的,因此始终对日本人存有最大的戒心。由于对日本的成见,中国似乎不能现实地评价日本的现在已发生的以及未来的变化,动辄缩回到"日本的成就很可能损及中国利益"的戒备心态。
相反地,日本人认为中国永远处于没完没了的革命之中,他们只有在中国与亚洲以外的强权结交时才会提高警惕——比如中国与苏联或美国的交往有可能极大地限制日本在国际经济的自由运作空间。

The other two main historical influences affecting Sino-Japanese relations- Japan's erstwhile role as model and leader of an "Asian renaissance," and the second Sino-Japanese war-reinforce and provide sustenance for the deeper suspicions arising out of the two nations' differing responses to the West. From approximately 1895 down to the Treaty of Versailles, and persisting in an attenuated form until Japan's seizure of Manchuria in 1931, Chinese and Asian nationalists of many different political hues traveled to Tokyo to learn modern scientific culture and modern political ideas. During this period, Japan herself was wrestling with the problem of what kind of foreign policy she might appropriately pursue in the world. Should she use her newly acquired power to lead the rest of Asia toward independence and modernity? Or should she, having achieved the industrial underpinnings of great-power status, join the imperialists? Despite what one may think with the benefit of hindsight, the answer was not a foregone conclusion.

其它两大影响中日关系的历史因素(1、日本曾扮演过的亚洲复兴榜样和领导者角色;2、第二次中日战争)加重并维持了两国间因对西方入侵反应不同而产生的猜忌。从1895年到凡尔塞条约,直到1931年日本占领满洲,中国及其它国家各种政治色彩的民族主义者远渡东京学习现代科学和政治思潮。这一时期里,日本正在苦苦思索它应在国际舞台上采取什么样的外交政策。是利用新近获得的力量领导亚洲走向独立和现代化,还是在取得工业强国的地位后加入帝国主义的行列?不管后人如何马后炮,当时这个问题的答案并不是必然的。

Prior to the First World War (and Japan's discovery of how easy it was to step into the enclaves vacated by the then-distracted European imperialists), some Japanese gave considerable aid and assistance to Chinese revolutionaries such as Sun Yat-sen. Equally important, Japan herself provided the climate for political discussion and ideological exploration that was so essential to the education of revolutionary leaders. In fact, much of the contemporary Chinese vocabulary of politics- terms like anarchism, socialism, communism, nationalism, and so forth- entered the Chinese language from Japanese renderings of these European words. Even when the Japanese began to lean toward an imperialist rather than an Asian role, many Chinese tried to continue to work with them.

在一战之前(欧洲无暇顾及亚洲飞地,日本轻而易举地趁虚而入),一些日本人向孙中山等中国革命者提供了可观的资助和协助。同样重要的是,日本为政治讨论和意识形态探讨提供了一个环境,这些对培养革命领袖不可或缺。实际上,现代中国的许多词汇,如无政府主义、社会主义、共产主义、民族主义等等都是欧洲原词的日文翻译。即使是在日本开始抛弃亚洲领导权、倒向帝国主义之时,许多中国人仍试图与日本人合作。

Japan's progressive development from the Twenty-one Demands on China in 1915 to the seizure of Manchuria in 1931 ultimately filled all Chinese nationalists with enmity against Japan, a sentiment bolstered by fury against Japan's parvenu imperialism and betrayal of her fellow Asians. When, in the 1930s, the Japanese militarists tried to revive an anti- Western Asian nationalism led by Japan, they were too late. In Chinese eyes Japan was no longer Asian; it was imperialist, pure and simple.

日本从1915年《二十一条》一步步走到1931年侵占满洲,最终让中国民族主义者对其充满仇恨,而日本的暴发户式的帝国主义及对亚洲诸国的背叛更是火上浇油。20世纪30年代,日本军国主义者试图倡导反击西方的亚洲民族主义运动,但为时已晚。在中国人的眼里,日本不再属于亚洲,它完全是一个纯粹的帝国主义国家。

The Sino-Japanese War itself bred further animosities and hatreds that continue to influence perceptions today, but it would be wrong to interpret the war's influence solely in terms of its brutalities. The war's more lasting contribution was its cognitive or ideological structure. Virtually all adult Japanese acknowledge and wish to atone for Japan's military actions on the continent, but many fewer will agree that Japan was fighting for a totally worthless national cause. They recall that in the depression era of "economic nationalism" every area of East Asia from India to the Philippines, with the exception of China and Thailand, was a European or American colony and that Japan was threatened with being frozen out in each of these territories. When China, the last country open to Japanese economic activity, began to develop a powerful, quasi-Marxist, anti- imperialist, anti-Japanese social movement-one enjoying the sympathy and sometimes the encouragement of the United States-Japan reacted with panic. Fears of international isolation and of alliances that work against Japan's needs as a resource-poor, overpopulated, insular, industrial economy lay very close to the surface of the Japanese mind, as they still do today. It is one reason why the mentality of "Japan, Inc." and protectionism remain so powerful despite Japan's present global economic outreach.

中日战争滋生出更多的敌意与忿恨,时至今日还影响着人们的看法。但是,这场战争的影响力不能单以凶残程度来衡量,更深远的影响在于它的感知或意识形态结构。几乎所有的日本成年人承认并忏悔日本在亚洲大陆的军事行动,但鲜有人认为日本是为一个毫无价值的目标而战。日本人回忆起在"经济民族主义"大萧条时期,除中国和泰国外的所有亚洲国家都沦为欧美的殖民地,日本担心自己会被排挤出这些区域。中国是最后一个向日本打开经济大门的国家,当得到美国同情甚或鼓励的半马克思主义、反帝国主义、反日本的社会运动风起云涌时,日本仓惶间作出反应。在国际上受到孤立、被各联盟包抄是日本这个资源贫乏、人口密集的工业化岛国的一大心病,至今未变。这就解释了为什么今天的日本经济在全球开枝散叶,但"日本公司"的心理和保护主义依然十分盛行。

On the Chinese side, World War II tended irresistibly to recommend Marxist and especially Leninist modes of thought to Chinese nationalists, since the progress of Japan from feudalism to capitalism to imperialism seemed to be a compelling confirmation of Marxist-Leninist ideology. Even today, with the decline of ideological rigidity in the communist world and the Sino- Soviet schism, China continues to believe that there is something economically inevitable about Japan's being a menace to China, regardless of what Japanese (or representatives of other economically advanced nations) profess. Needless to say, Japan's postwar alliance with the United States and America's own deep postwar antagonism to the Chinese Communists did nothing to lessen the hold of this ideological cast of mind.

二战是向中国民族主义者推销马列主义的绝佳时机,尤其是日本从封建社会进化到资本主义再到帝国主义,印证了马列理论。即使在中苏决裂、共产阵营中思想教条有所松动的今天,中国仍相信:无论日本或其它发达国家如何表白,日本注定要成为心腹大患。毋须烦言,战后美日结盟以及美国对中共的敌意更加使中国坚定了这一想法。

Chinese communist ideology is a complex subject, and no suggestion is intended that Chinese ideology is unchanged or that it is the sole or primary influence on Chinese behavior in the world. Instead, I wish to stress that the heritage of World War II in Sino-Japanese relations has an ideological dimension-in addition to the legacy of war and killing-and that such set patterns of thinking may be more important in future contacts between China and Japan than other wartime memories. For example, Japan today has a vested interest in international stability, this being a prerequisite for the global commerce on which Japan depends and thrives. In order to secure this stability Japan is increasingly making available foreign aid to the established governments of such countries as Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand; and is opposed to revolutionary movements. How does China interpret these Japanese activities-say, economic aid to South Korea or to Thailand? Inevitably, the Chinese explain Japan's posture in ideological terms, as a reflection of the "capitalist-imperalist- reactionary syndrome." China does not and probably will not soon accept the legitimacy of Japan's close commercial and aid ties with the other nations of Asia.

中国共产主义意识形态是一个复杂的课题,但它不是一成不变的,也不是左右中国国际行为的主要或唯一的力量。相反地,笔者要指出:二战给中日关系留下的不只是战乱与杀戮,还有意识形态的层面;对于两国日后交往而言,这种模式化的思维方式或许要比战争回忆更为重要。比如,今天的日本希望世界局势稳定,以便于开展赖以生存的国际商事活动。为了营造安定的国际环境,日本逐步向印尼、马来西亚、泰国等提供外国援助,同时还反对革命运动。中国如何理解日本的外援活动?必然地,中国用意识形态术语来解释日本的姿态——"资本主义—帝国主义—反动派综合症"。中国不承认、可能也不会很快承认日本与亚洲其它国家商业和援助关系的合法性。

On the other hand, China's efforts to promote revolution throughout the third world strike Japanese as evidence of China's continuing communist- based hostility to nations such as Japan. China is not-yet-a stability- promoting force in the world, and this stance of China's directly conflicts with a basic Japanese national interest. The Japanese recall what happened to their important prewar China market under revolutionary conditions, and they are not the least bit reassured by the continued virulence of communist ideology on the mainland. In short, both China and Japan have good reasons to fear a recurrence of international conditions similar to those that existed in the 1930s; both nations' perceptions of such a possible recurrence are, however, colored by their respective ideological explanations of why such conditions ever came about in the first place.

另一方面,中国将革命推向整个第三世界的努力,在日本人看来证明了中国以共产主义为基础、持续地敌视日本之流。中国还不是世界格局中的稳定力量,这一立场与日本的基本国家利益直接冲突。日本人仍记得在大战前,日本重要的在华市场是怎样受到革命浪潮的冲击,目前在中国大陆横行的共产流毒岂能让他们安心?总之,中日双方皆有理由害怕国际局势重回30年代的状态;两国对30年代国际状态之所以能够产生的意识形态解释,将影响他们对这一可能回归的看法。

原创翻译,《外交事务》原文链接http://www.foreignaffairs.com/ar ... ach-other?page=show

How China and Japan See Each Other

中日对视

By Chalmers Johnson

July 1972

1972年7月

Over the past century the politics of East Asia have been influenced more profoundly by the Sino-Japanese relationship than by any other single factor. Because both the two present-day societies have roots in classical Chinese civilization-only a "heritage" for each today-Chinese and Japanese politicians before World War II often argued that there was a special binding relationship between them. Japan's written language and much of its religious, artistic and moral civilization derive from Chinese culture, while Japan was the primary influence both positively and negatively on whole generations of Chinese revolutionaries, some of whom are still alive and active today. Perhaps because of this common heritage of civilization and mutual influence, the enormous misunderstandings, wars, threats and depredations that have characterized Sino-Japanese relations for a century have tended to take on the ferocity of a family or civil feud. Even though well-educated Chinese and Japanese can learn each other's language rather easily, it is doubtful whether any two peoples in the twentieth century have approached each other with more profoundly misleading stereotypes.

过去百年间东亚政局受中日关系影响最深。由于两国均植根于中国传统文明——现如今都只有遗迹残存——中日政治家们在二战前经常声称两家有着特殊的纽带关系。日本的文字和大部分的宗教、艺术、伦理都源于中国文化;日本则或正面或负面地影响着中国数代革命志士,有些依然在世或还很活跃。也许正是因为双方继承了共同的文明遗产且又相互影响,中日百年来的误解、战争、恐吓、劫掠常如萧蔷恶斗般凶狠怨毒。虽然中日知识分子可以轻松地学会对方的语言,但二十世纪中似乎没有哪两个民族在如此深的成见中进行交往。

Three specific historical occurrences continue to mold Chinese and Japanese attitudes toward each other, in addition to the broader pressures on the two nations of different ideologies and national interests. First, China and Japan reacted to the influence of Western imperialism in the nineteenth century in almost diametrically opposite ways: within a few decades after the Western intrusion Japan had accommodated herself to and incorporated modern technology, whereas China disintegrated as a social system and required a century before she could begin her own modernization under conditions of national unity. Second, prior to the First World War Japan served as an exemplar and model for many Chinese modernizers, a role that the Soviet Union took over after the Bolshevik Revolution; and just as in the case of the Sino-Soviet conflict, this earlier relationship has tended to color later antagonisms with feelings of ingratitude on the one hand and betrayal on the other. Third, Japan's ultimate betrayal, in the eyes of Chinese revolutionaries, was her military intervention in China between 1937 and 1945 in order to suppress by force the Chinese anti-imperialist nationalist movement-a savage crucible in which the Chinese Communist Party obtained a mass following as a result of its championing resistance to Japan.

中日两个拥有不同意识形态和利益的国家承受着来自国际大环境的压力,除此之外,三大历史事件持续地影响着中日对对方的态度。其一、两国在19世纪面对西方帝国主义有着截然不同的反应:在西方入侵数十年之内,日本委屈求全并接纳现代科技;中国社会则崩分离析,直到一个世纪之后才能在全国团结的条件下开始现代化进程。其二、在一战前,许多中国变革人士视日本为楷模和榜样,苏联在布尔什维克革命之后接任这一角色;正如同稍后的中苏冲突,中日这层关系为日后两国交恶蒙上了浓重的感情色彩——一方认为对方不知感恩,另一方则认为遭到背叛。其三、在中国革命者的眼里,最大的背叛莫过于1937至1945年日本为平息中国反日民族主义运动而实施的在华军事干预——在这场残酷的浩劫中,共产党因力主抗日受到大众拥戴。

Of these three elements, perhaps the first is of the greatest long-term significance. Pre-modern China and pre-modern Japan were sociologically quite different societies, and Western imperialist pressure impinged upon each of them in different ways. None the less both were similar enough- common Sinitic civilization, closed to foreign intercourse since the seventeenth century, and forced open by the West in the 1840s and 1850s-to cause members of each society to make invidious comparisons about the performance of the other in the face of common challenges. The Chinese, supremely confident of the superiority of their own culture, reacted with various anti-foreign movements until the end of the century, while the Japanese, after a brief experiment with anti-foreignisrn, gave it up as a lost cause and quickly modernized along Western lines.

这三大历史因素中,也许第一个有着最为深远的意义。近代中日在社会学上相当不同,而且西方帝国主义以不同的方式在两国身上施压。尽管如此,两者还是有很多共性,如汉语文化、17世纪以来的闭关锁国、在19世纪四、五十年代被西方强行打开国门等。在面对共同的挑战时,两个社会的成员以鄙夷的眼光打量着对方的表现。中国人对老祖宗的文明极其自负,将抗击外敌的运动一直进行到19世纪未;而日本人在短暂的挣扎之后,放弃无谓的抵抗,迅速师夷长技。

Among the humiliations suffered by the Chinese, none was more galling than the defeat in 1895 of the "Celestial Empire" (China) by the "Wa dwarfs" (Japanese, as seen by the Chinese), a defeat that resulted in the annexation of Taiwan into the Japanese Empire. The initial Chinese reaction to this defeat, which brought the first true Chinese revolutionary movements into being, was to blame their own inept government; and after 1895, thousands of Chinese students flocked to Japan to learn about the modern world. Over time and in light of Japan's subsequent development as an imperialist power in her own right, Chinese admiration of the Japanese modernization effort changed to a hatred of Japan, the quintessential imperialist villain who kept China weak in order to suck her dry.

在中国人所受的屈辱中,最为刻骨铭心的要数1895年天朝败于倭寇(译注:原文如此),台湾因此被割让给日本帝国。中国人对这一惨败的第一反应就是责怪无能的朝廷,首个真正意义的中国革命由此风起云涌。1895年后,数千名中国留学生蜂拥至日本学习了解现代社会。但随着日本帝国主义霸权的升腾,中国人对日本现代化的祟敬逐渐转化成痛恨——日本,一个置中国于贫弱以便将其榨干的帝国主义死敌。

China and Japan offer two of the clearest archetypes in the so-called third world of alternative responses to Western imperialism. Japan adopted the reformist strategy, grafting Western institutions onto her essentially feudal social structure, changing in subtle ways but at the same time maintaining a distinctive national identity and continuity with the past. China rejected reform, since it seemed to imply an unacceptable accommodation of Confucian culture with barbarian (uncivilized) mores, and was ultimately forced by implacable imperialist pressure to revolution-a revolution in which the traditional culture was to be totally dismantled and replaced with a new culture that could prevent the incessant foreign "humiliations" and restore a sense of national dignity. Reform and revolution remain the two broad alternatives open to the so-called "modernizing" nations; and Japan and China, the one perhaps the most reformist nation in modern history and the other the most revolutionary, exemplify the strengths and weaknesses of each strategy to other nations around the world and to each other.

中日两国提供了所谓第三世界应对西方强权的两大最为清晰的原型。日本采取了改革者的策略,将西方体制嫁接到本国的封建社会,潜移默化,但同时保持独特的国格和历史延续性。中国则拒绝改革,因为改革似乎意味着将儒家文化与蛮夷习俗进行不可接受的调和。中国最终在无情的帝国主义压力之下走向革命——日后,革命将完全击碎传统文化,能够抵御外辱和重铸国家尊严的新文化将取而代之。改革和革命是所谓"正在现代化"的国家面临的两条路,日本——或许是现代史上最曲型的改革国家,中国——最革命的国家,为世上其它国家以及对方展现了不同出路的利弊。

The attitudes that grew up along with these divergent histories persist to the present time and will have an important influence on any future process of Sino-Japanese reconciliation. To the Chinese the Japanese "economic miracle" is not only a threat; it is also an insult. Today the Chinese trade more with Japan than with any other nation, but they do not praise Japan for her economic success, nor do they appear willing to put Sino- Japanese economic coöperation on a stable long-term footing. For that matter, the Chinese do not display much in the way of understanding as to why Japan's economy continues to grow as fast as it does. Premier Chou En- lai argues that Japan's economic power is an inevitable precursor of remilitarization and imperialism, and the Chinese have not thus far shown the slightest willingness to adjust to the fact that Japan's GNP is infinitely greater than China's and will continue to be so for the indefinite future. By hammering away at the inevitability of "revived Japanese militarism" the Chinese may be setting up a self-fulfilling prophecy.

沿着这两条不同的历史轨迹形成的社会心态一直延续至今,并对未来中日和解进程具有重要影响。对于中国人来讲,日本的经济奇迹不但是一个威胁,也是一个羞辱。日本是中国最大的贸易伙伴,但中国人既不称赞日本在经济上的成功,似乎也不愿意将中日经济合作置于稳定、长期的基础之上。就此而言,中国人好像不理解为什么日本经济会如此快速地成长。周恩来总理认为日本的经济实力必将导致军国主义和帝国主义,到目前为止,中国人没有丝毫表示愿意适应日本经济无数倍于中国、并将无限期如此的现实。中国大力鼓吹"日本必将重拾军国主义道路",有可能一语成谶。

The Japanese, on the other hand, seem to be befogged by an equally long- standing inability to take the Chinese seriously. It is perhaps not too far- fetched to describe Japanese attitudes toward their continental neighbors as somewhat comparable to the English or German industrialist's attitude toward an Italian or Spanish aristocrat recently gone into commerce. He admires, and is slightly intimidated by, the ancient cultural achievements to which his modern counterpart is heir, but he finds it almost impossible in the company board room to suggest seriously that the new boy might become a competitor or a threat. Japan today is interested in doing business with China but her interest in the China business is only a slight fraction of her interest in business generally, and Japanese commercial representatives seem quite willing to sign humiliating Chinese communiqués or other anti-Japanese pronouncements drafted by Peking in order to get what trade there is-presumably because Japanese do not take these Chinese pronouncements very seriously. The Japanese are much more concerned about the possibility that another nation might get ahead of them in the China trade than that the Chinese might compete with them successfully in the rest of Asia.

相对地,日本人似乎被长期以来对中国的轻视所麻痹。日本人对华态度有点像英德商人对待刚步入商界的意大利或西班牙贵族。对方祖上的荣光让他心存敬畏,但在公司董事会上,他始终难以相信这个新来的小子在日后有可能成为强劲的对手。日本如今有意到中国做生意,但在华利益不及日本总体经济利益的零头。日本商业代表们似乎挺乐意签署令人难堪的中国公报或其它由北京起草的反日文书,以换取对华贸易——或许是因为日本对此类声明根本无所谓。相比中国人可能有朝一日在全亚洲与其展开竞争,日本人更担心其他国家会捷足先登,在对华贸易上赢得先机。

Even Chinese nuclear weapons do not appear to have caused the Japanese to see China as a potential threat, even though the Japanese dislike atomic testing by anybody. One sign of this Japanese self-confidence vis-à-vis China is the underdeveloped state of Japanese research and training about the Chinese Revolution in the postwar era. Japan's academic and governmental specialists on Chinese communist developments are among the most knowledgeable in the world, but all of them complain of the relatively slight interest in scholarship on China among students and the Japanese public. Even when Chinese events reach the headlines, they are likely to be regarded as mere "news," and not as developments that might vitally affect Japan as a nation.

虽然日本不喜欢任何人进行核试验,但中国的核武器好像并没有促使日本人视其为潜在威胁。日本在中国面前自信满满还表现在日本人在战后对中国革命的研究不足。日本研究中共发展史的院校、政府专家们当属世上最为博学者,但他们毫无例外地报怨日本学生和大众对研究中国不感兴趣。即使中国事件登上报纸头条,日本人也将其视作普通新闻,而不是有可能影响日本的大事件。

None of this is to suggest that the major sources of tension between China and Japan are attitudinal and that there are no real problems. It is rather to point out that the Chinese tend to regard Japan, for good historical reasons, with the utmost suspicion, remembering how quickly the old samurai of the nineteenth century armed themselves with Western weapons and turned these against China. China's stereotypes of Japan seem to preclude a realistic Chinese assessment of how Japan has changed and of the ways in which she may change in the future, always coming back to the undertone of suspicion that Japan's achievements are likely to be at China's expense. Conversely, the Japanese regard the Chinese as still struggling with their interminable revolutions and are inclined to take the Chinese deadly seriously only when it looks as if the Chinese are about to form an alliance with a non-Asian power, say the Soviet Union or the United States, for that might greatly restrict Japan's freedom of access and maneuver in international commerce.

但这并不意味着紧张状况大多源于中日对立心态,或者中日之间并无真正的问题。基于历史上的原因,中国人牢记19世纪的日本武士是如何用洋人武器武装自己,转而进攻中国的,因此始终对日本人存有最大的戒心。由于对日本的成见,中国似乎不能现实地评价日本的现在已发生的以及未来的变化,动辄缩回到"日本的成就很可能损及中国利益"的戒备心态。
相反地,日本人认为中国永远处于没完没了的革命之中,他们只有在中国与亚洲以外的强权结交时才会提高警惕——比如中国与苏联或美国的交往有可能极大地限制日本在国际经济的自由运作空间。

The other two main historical influences affecting Sino-Japanese relations- Japan's erstwhile role as model and leader of an "Asian renaissance," and the second Sino-Japanese war-reinforce and provide sustenance for the deeper suspicions arising out of the two nations' differing responses to the West. From approximately 1895 down to the Treaty of Versailles, and persisting in an attenuated form until Japan's seizure of Manchuria in 1931, Chinese and Asian nationalists of many different political hues traveled to Tokyo to learn modern scientific culture and modern political ideas. During this period, Japan herself was wrestling with the problem of what kind of foreign policy she might appropriately pursue in the world. Should she use her newly acquired power to lead the rest of Asia toward independence and modernity? Or should she, having achieved the industrial underpinnings of great-power status, join the imperialists? Despite what one may think with the benefit of hindsight, the answer was not a foregone conclusion.

其它两大影响中日关系的历史因素(1、日本曾扮演过的亚洲复兴榜样和领导者角色;2、第二次中日战争)加重并维持了两国间因对西方入侵反应不同而产生的猜忌。从1895年到凡尔塞条约,直到1931年日本占领满洲,中国及其它国家各种政治色彩的民族主义者远渡东京学习现代科学和政治思潮。这一时期里,日本正在苦苦思索它应在国际舞台上采取什么样的外交政策。是利用新近获得的力量领导亚洲走向独立和现代化,还是在取得工业强国的地位后加入帝国主义的行列?不管后人如何马后炮,当时这个问题的答案并不是必然的。

Prior to the First World War (and Japan's discovery of how easy it was to step into the enclaves vacated by the then-distracted European imperialists), some Japanese gave considerable aid and assistance to Chinese revolutionaries such as Sun Yat-sen. Equally important, Japan herself provided the climate for political discussion and ideological exploration that was so essential to the education of revolutionary leaders. In fact, much of the contemporary Chinese vocabulary of politics- terms like anarchism, socialism, communism, nationalism, and so forth- entered the Chinese language from Japanese renderings of these European words. Even when the Japanese began to lean toward an imperialist rather than an Asian role, many Chinese tried to continue to work with them.

在一战之前(欧洲无暇顾及亚洲飞地,日本轻而易举地趁虚而入),一些日本人向孙中山等中国革命者提供了可观的资助和协助。同样重要的是,日本为政治讨论和意识形态探讨提供了一个环境,这些对培养革命领袖不可或缺。实际上,现代中国的许多词汇,如无政府主义、社会主义、共产主义、民族主义等等都是欧洲原词的日文翻译。即使是在日本开始抛弃亚洲领导权、倒向帝国主义之时,许多中国人仍试图与日本人合作。

Japan's progressive development from the Twenty-one Demands on China in 1915 to the seizure of Manchuria in 1931 ultimately filled all Chinese nationalists with enmity against Japan, a sentiment bolstered by fury against Japan's parvenu imperialism and betrayal of her fellow Asians. When, in the 1930s, the Japanese militarists tried to revive an anti- Western Asian nationalism led by Japan, they were too late. In Chinese eyes Japan was no longer Asian; it was imperialist, pure and simple.

日本从1915年《二十一条》一步步走到1931年侵占满洲,最终让中国民族主义者对其充满仇恨,而日本的暴发户式的帝国主义及对亚洲诸国的背叛更是火上浇油。20世纪30年代,日本军国主义者试图倡导反击西方的亚洲民族主义运动,但为时已晚。在中国人的眼里,日本不再属于亚洲,它完全是一个纯粹的帝国主义国家。

The Sino-Japanese War itself bred further animosities and hatreds that continue to influence perceptions today, but it would be wrong to interpret the war's influence solely in terms of its brutalities. The war's more lasting contribution was its cognitive or ideological structure. Virtually all adult Japanese acknowledge and wish to atone for Japan's military actions on the continent, but many fewer will agree that Japan was fighting for a totally worthless national cause. They recall that in the depression era of "economic nationalism" every area of East Asia from India to the Philippines, with the exception of China and Thailand, was a European or American colony and that Japan was threatened with being frozen out in each of these territories. When China, the last country open to Japanese economic activity, began to develop a powerful, quasi-Marxist, anti- imperialist, anti-Japanese social movement-one enjoying the sympathy and sometimes the encouragement of the United States-Japan reacted with panic. Fears of international isolation and of alliances that work against Japan's needs as a resource-poor, overpopulated, insular, industrial economy lay very close to the surface of the Japanese mind, as they still do today. It is one reason why the mentality of "Japan, Inc." and protectionism remain so powerful despite Japan's present global economic outreach.

中日战争滋生出更多的敌意与忿恨,时至今日还影响着人们的看法。但是,这场战争的影响力不能单以凶残程度来衡量,更深远的影响在于它的感知或意识形态结构。几乎所有的日本成年人承认并忏悔日本在亚洲大陆的军事行动,但鲜有人认为日本是为一个毫无价值的目标而战。日本人回忆起在"经济民族主义"大萧条时期,除中国和泰国外的所有亚洲国家都沦为欧美的殖民地,日本担心自己会被排挤出这些区域。中国是最后一个向日本打开经济大门的国家,当得到美国同情甚或鼓励的半马克思主义、反帝国主义、反日本的社会运动风起云涌时,日本仓惶间作出反应。在国际上受到孤立、被各联盟包抄是日本这个资源贫乏、人口密集的工业化岛国的一大心病,至今未变。这就解释了为什么今天的日本经济在全球开枝散叶,但"日本公司"的心理和保护主义依然十分盛行。

On the Chinese side, World War II tended irresistibly to recommend Marxist and especially Leninist modes of thought to Chinese nationalists, since the progress of Japan from feudalism to capitalism to imperialism seemed to be a compelling confirmation of Marxist-Leninist ideology. Even today, with the decline of ideological rigidity in the communist world and the Sino- Soviet schism, China continues to believe that there is something economically inevitable about Japan's being a menace to China, regardless of what Japanese (or representatives of other economically advanced nations) profess. Needless to say, Japan's postwar alliance with the United States and America's own deep postwar antagonism to the Chinese Communists did nothing to lessen the hold of this ideological cast of mind.

二战是向中国民族主义者推销马列主义的绝佳时机,尤其是日本从封建社会进化到资本主义再到帝国主义,印证了马列理论。即使在中苏决裂、共产阵营中思想教条有所松动的今天,中国仍相信:无论日本或其它发达国家如何表白,日本注定要成为心腹大患。毋须烦言,战后美日结盟以及美国对中共的敌意更加使中国坚定了这一想法。

Chinese communist ideology is a complex subject, and no suggestion is intended that Chinese ideology is unchanged or that it is the sole or primary influence on Chinese behavior in the world. Instead, I wish to stress that the heritage of World War II in Sino-Japanese relations has an ideological dimension-in addition to the legacy of war and killing-and that such set patterns of thinking may be more important in future contacts between China and Japan than other wartime memories. For example, Japan today has a vested interest in international stability, this being a prerequisite for the global commerce on which Japan depends and thrives. In order to secure this stability Japan is increasingly making available foreign aid to the established governments of such countries as Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand; and is opposed to revolutionary movements. How does China interpret these Japanese activities-say, economic aid to South Korea or to Thailand? Inevitably, the Chinese explain Japan's posture in ideological terms, as a reflection of the "capitalist-imperalist- reactionary syndrome." China does not and probably will not soon accept the legitimacy of Japan's close commercial and aid ties with the other nations of Asia.

中国共产主义意识形态是一个复杂的课题,但它不是一成不变的,也不是左右中国国际行为的主要或唯一的力量。相反地,笔者要指出:二战给中日关系留下的不只是战乱与杀戮,还有意识形态的层面;对于两国日后交往而言,这种模式化的思维方式或许要比战争回忆更为重要。比如,今天的日本希望世界局势稳定,以便于开展赖以生存的国际商事活动。为了营造安定的国际环境,日本逐步向印尼、马来西亚、泰国等提供外国援助,同时还反对革命运动。中国如何理解日本的外援活动?必然地,中国用意识形态术语来解释日本的姿态——"资本主义—帝国主义—反动派综合症"。中国不承认、可能也不会很快承认日本与亚洲其它国家商业和援助关系的合法性。

On the other hand, China's efforts to promote revolution throughout the third world strike Japanese as evidence of China's continuing communist- based hostility to nations such as Japan. China is not-yet-a stability- promoting force in the world, and this stance of China's directly conflicts with a basic Japanese national interest. The Japanese recall what happened to their important prewar China market under revolutionary conditions, and they are not the least bit reassured by the continued virulence of communist ideology on the mainland. In short, both China and Japan have good reasons to fear a recurrence of international conditions similar to those that existed in the 1930s; both nations' perceptions of such a possible recurrence are, however, colored by their respective ideological explanations of why such conditions ever came about in the first place.

另一方面,中国将革命推向整个第三世界的努力,在日本人看来证明了中国以共产主义为基础、持续地敌视日本之流。中国还不是世界格局中的稳定力量,这一立场与日本的基本国家利益直接冲突。日本人仍记得在大战前,日本重要的在华市场是怎样受到革命浪潮的冲击,目前在中国大陆横行的共产流毒岂能让他们安心?总之,中日双方皆有理由害怕国际局势重回30年代的状态;两国对30年代国际状态之所以能够产生的意识形态解释,将影响他们对这一可能回归的看法。
II

China and Japan have been interacting with each other and misunderstanding each other for a century, during which both underwent the most dramatic changes. There is little evidence today that either country "understands" the other any better than it did in the past. For example, China has been trying for the past two decades to conduct "people-to-people" diplomacy in Japan and to influence Japanese elections. However, despite large expenditures of money and propaganda efforts, the Chinese have never had the kind of sensitivity or insight into Japanese society that might have helped some of their subversive activities to succeed. Instead, Tokyo reporters quip that Peking's heavy-handed propaganda must be a secret weapon of the conservative party, since every time China meddles in a Japanese election its net effect is to increase the conservatives' margin of victory.

中日互相影响、误解长达百年,在此期间双方都经历了翻天覆地的变化。目前尚无证据表明两国能增进相互了解。比如,中国在过去二十年里力推"中日民间外交"并试图影响日本选举。尽管投入了大量的资金和宣传,中国从未能够真正洞悉日本社会,所以颠覆日本政局的努力均告失败。东京记者甚至嘲笑北京的大力宣传是保守党派的秘密武器,中国每次开腔都会增加保守派的赢面。

A peculiar aspect of China's inability to win large numbers of friends in Japan is that, at least on the surface, it would appear so easy for China to do so. The Japanese press is filled with protestations of friendship for China, and every major political leader has said that he is in favor of improving Sino-Japanese relations. There seem to be two reasons why nothing very much has happened. The first relates to the covert reality of the Japanese political process and the second to the fact that China does not want Japanese friendship unless the Japanese adopt virtually a neutralist foreign policy.

两国交往有一个独特的现象,从表面上看中国可以轻松地赢得众多的日本朋友,但事实并非如此。日本的媒体充斥着中日友好的声音,各大政治领导人都曾表示希望增进两国关系,但建树甚少。原因有二,其一与日本幕后的政治现实有关,其二、除非日本奉行"中立国"的外交政策,中国不会希罕日本的友谊。

What Japanese politicians say on the substantive issues of politics must always be leavened with an appreciation of the role that issues play in relations between factions of the dominant Liberal Democratic Party. Positions on issues are often developed first and foremost with an eye to distinguishing an aspiring faction leader from the current administration, perhaps thereby enhancing his future prospects to enter or form a government, or in order to embarrass the ruling faction and to make it harder for it to capitalize politically on its current-and in all likelihood widely supported-policies. Thus, opposition faction leaders wrere quick to cry that Prime Minister Sato had been irretrievably disgraced and weakened when President Nixon launched his new China policy without consulting Sato in advance. Sato may have been weakened-many of his opponents hoped so-but this did not mean that, aside from wanting to replace him in office, his critics necessarily wanted to change his policies on China. The clearest example of this covert political infighting occurred during the 1960 crisis over the Japanese-American security treaty. A casual observer might have thought that the Japanese were deeply opposed to continuing friendly relations with the United States. What they were really opposed to was the way Prime Minister Kishi had handled the treaty in the Diet and the fact that he was likely to get enormous political credit for having renegotiated it. Once Kishi had been forced from office, none of his inner-party opponents said anything more about changing the treaty.

(注:这一段前两句是全文最难翻的,工兵如履薄冰)

听日本政客谈论重大政治议题时,须牢记这个议题在自民党内各派系斗争中所扮演的角色。政客们之所以持某一特定立场,经常是为了使某派系领导人脱颖而出、与现有政府划清界限,以便日后入阁甚至组阁;或者是为了令当权派系难堪,使之难以在某些政策上捞取政治资本——即使这些政策广受支持。因此,当尼克松总统未经咨询佐藤首相,即展开对华新政时,自民党内反对派系立刻高呼佐藤已无可挽回地受到了羞辱和削弱。佐藤或许被削弱了——至少许多反对派人士希望如此——但这并不意味着佐藤的批评者除了希望将其取代外,还想推倒他的对华政策。此类幕后内斗最明显的例子发生在《1960年日美安保条约》危机期间。外人或许会认为日本极为反对与美国保持友好关系,但他们真正反对的是岸信介首相在国会处理这一条约的方式,此外他们也不希望岸信介因重启条约谈判而在政治上名利双收。岸信介被拉下马之后,党内再无要求改动条约的声音。

The second problem standing in the way of improved Chinese-Japanese relations is that China is not likely to accept a "normalization" of relations until Japan has met China's political requirements. In the terms of the Sino-American communiqué of February 28, 1972, the Chinese People's Republic "firmly opposes the revival and outward expansion of Japanese militarism and firmly supports the Japanese people's desire to build an independent, democratic, peaceful and neutral Japan." Japanese deeply resent this particular choice of words by the Chinese because, since they themselves criticize any signs of a "revival and outward expansion of Japanese militarism," they understand Chinese propaganda on this theme to mean that China opposes Japan's regaining control over Okinawa and objects to Japan's close economic ties with the rimland states of East Asia.

中日关系的第二个拦路虎:在日本满足中方政治要求之前,中国不大可能接受"关系正常化"。1972年2月28日中美联合公报指出,中国"坚决反对日本军国主义的复苏和对外扩张,并坚定地支持日本人民建立一个独立、民主、和平、中立的日本的愿望"。日本人对中方的措辞深为不满,虽然他们也反对任何"军国主义复苏或对外扩张"的苗头,但他们深知中国的宣传意在反对日本占有冲绳、反对日本与东亚周边诸国保持紧密的经济联系。

The Chinese demand that Japan cut her economic ties with South Korea and Taiwan, end her alliance with the United States, renegotiate a new peace treaty with China, and adhere strictly to the disarmament provisions of the present Japanese Constitution. And even if Japan did all of these things, the Chinese would still claim the right to specify which Japanese political leaders they would or would not deal with. What Japan would obtain from China in return is never made clear. Japan is unlikely to acquiesce fully to China's terms for state-to-state relations (they are the harshest terms China has asked from any nation, including the United States) unless China's tactics of playing off the United States against Japan force the Japanese to agree. Under those circumstances a Sino-Japanese rapprochement is likely to be extremely fragile and short-lived.

中国要求日本切断与韩国和台湾的经济联系、终止日美同盟、重启中日和平条约谈判并严格遵守日本宪法中关于解除武装的条款。即使日本满足所有上述要求,中国还会声称它有选择与哪些日本领导人合作的权利。而日方能从中国获得哪些回报却不明确。除非中国利用美国逼日本就范,日本不大可能完全依照中国的条件行事——这些比中国向包括美国在内的所有国家开出的条件都要苛刻。环境如此,中日重新接触很可能会十分脆弱和短暂。

The question thus becomes whether the American démarche on China policy, combined with the presidential visit to China, has enhanced or damaged the possibilities of improved Sino-Japanese relations. Even though Japanese pride was somewhat wounded by the way in which the Chinese and Americans got together, and despite the fact that Tokyo is disappointed to see its long-envisioned role as intermediary between China and America go up in smoke, virtually all Japanese political leaders hope that Chinese friendliness toward the Americans applies to them too. The Japanese are prepared to make concessions to China in order to find out. Japan has already abrogated the so-called "Yoshida Letter," which pledged to Chiang Kai-shek that Japan would not provide long-term credits for Chinese communist purchases in Japan, and has made Export-Import Bank financing available to China. Many of Japan's largest firms have also accepted Chou En-lai's "four principles" of April 19, 1970, for trade with China-i.e. that firms trading with China must not: (1) carry on trade with South Korea or Taiwan, (2) invest in South Korea or Taiwan, (3) export weapons for American use in Indochina, or (4) affiliate as joint ventures or subsidiaries of American firms in Japan.

由此,摆在面前的问题是美国对华外交政策以及尼克松访华是增进了还是损害了中日关系改善的可能性。中美建交的方式或多或少损及日本颜面,并且东京对未能在中美间扮演梦寐已求的红娘角色感到失望,尽管如此,几乎所有的日本政治领导人还是希望中国对美国的友谊能够延续到日本身上。日本人已做好让步的准备,它废除了向蒋介石承诺不为中共在日采购提供长期信用的所谓《吉田书简》,进出口银行已为中方开放了信贷服务。日本许多大公司接受了周恩来1970年4月19日对华贸易四大原则:1、不得与韩国或台湾有贸易往来;2、不得在韩国或台湾投资;3、不得出口会被美国用于印度支那的武器;4、不得成为美国公司在日本的合资公司或子公司。

Nevertheless, many of the best-informed Japanese doubt that Japan can ever concede enough to win Chinese approval. Japanese leaders have hunches-the Japanese Ambassador to the United States publicly expressed his-that at least part of the Chinese motivation in inviting the American President to China was to damage the friendly relations that exist between Japan and the United States. The Japanese think that China warmed up to the United States only partly because of the growing threat posed to China by the Soviet Union and China's consequent need to complicate Soviet decision-making by ending her international isolation. Another Chinese fear, they argue, is the possibility that Japan may fill the vacuum created in East Asia as the United States scales down its presence in accordance with the Nixon Doctrine. One way to prevent the latter from happening would be for China to try to isolate Japan and to pressure her into a quick accommodation with China on Chinese terms.

尽管如此,许多日方灵通人士怀疑日本能否作出足够多的让步来赢得中国的赞许。日本领导人感觉到(日本驻美大使甚至公开宣称),中国邀请美国总统访华至少部分地出于破坏日美友好关系的动机。日本人认为中国与美国交好出于两方面考虑:一、来自苏联的威胁越来越大,中国需要结束长期的孤立状态以便打乱苏联的算盘;二、美国遵照"尼克松原则"减少在东亚的存在,中国担心日本会填补美国留下的空间。消灭第二种情况的方法之一就是孤立日本,迫使日本依照中国开列条件速速对华妥协。

In addition to the heritage of hostilities and misperceptions between the two countries, there are two other obstacles to a speedy rapprochement between China and Japan: Taiwan and Japan's defense requirements. Taiwan poses a major dilemma for Japanese policy. Despite the fact that Japanese trade with Taiwan during 1970 was worth $127 million more than Japanese trade with the mainland, the Japanese appear willing to compromise on Taiwan-but only if it produces a genuine improvement in relations with Peking. The Japanese have large investments on the island, and they are aware that a majority of the Taiwanese would prefer independence to being ruled by either the present group of mainlanders that sits in Taipei (the Kuomintang exiles) or by a new group of mainlanders. The Japanese also know that Taiwanese sentiment for independence has been muted in the past because the Taiwanese believed that time was working in their favor: the Kuomintang leaders who arrived between 1945 and 1949 are old and must pass from the scene before long. Ironically, the American acknowledgment in the communiqué of February 1972 that "Taiwan is a part of China" may finally bring a Taiwanese independence movement into being, since time is no longer on the side of the indigenous population.

除历史遗留下的敌意和误解外,还有两个因素困扰中日关系:台湾问题和日本的国防需求。日本在台湾问题尤其左右为难,尽管在1970年日台贸易额要比日本与大陆贸易额多出1.27亿美元,日本似乎愿意在台湾问题上让步——但只在能够真正改善与北京关系的前提下。日本在台湾拥有大量的投资,也清楚相较被坐镇台北的大陆人(国民党流亡者)或其他的大陆人统治,大多数台湾人民更希望获得独立。日本人还知道过去台湾人民要求独立的呼声不高是因为时间站在他们一边:45年至49年抵台的国民党领导人上了年纪,很快会告别历史舞台。具有讽刺意味的是,美国在72年2月联合公报中承认台湾是中国的一部分,有可能终于推动台湾独立运动,因为时间不再站在本土岛民一边。

The Japanese regard Taiwan as "independent" economically right now, and they have strong historical, cultural and economic interests in seeing it become independent politically. However, for them to support Taiwanese independence would eliminate any possibility of friendly relations with the present government on the mainland. Therefore, they see no other course than to follow the American lead and acknowledge Peking's sovereignty over the island. On the other hand, if relations with the mainland are likely to remain unchanged or to worsen in the future, then the Japanese think that it would be foolish to liquidate their Taiwanese holdings for nothing.

日本人目前视台湾为独立的经济体,如台湾成为独立的政治体,在历史、文化、经济上对日本都有很大好处。但如若日本支持台独,必将断绝任何与大陆现政府改善关系的可能性。因此日本只能跟随美国承认大陆对台湾的主权。如果未来中日关系仍然僵持甚至恶化,日本会认为牺牲在台利益得不偿失。

One reason why Sino-Japanese relations might worsen is because of Japan's security problems. Japan may be the world's third-ranking economy in terms of industrial production, but China is the world's fifth nuclear power. Japan is dependent upon, and committed to, maintaining her defense against China's growing nuclear strength via the American "nuclear umbrella." However, to the extent that the Japanese-American security treaty becomes less credible in Japanese eyes, the Japanese government will be forced to find some other way to provide for the security of a non-nuclear nation in a nuclear world. One way would be for the Japanese themselves to become a nuclear power. The Japanese do not want this; they know that to do so would alarm many of their trading partners and would ruin their chances for a détente with China. But it is something that Japanese planners must consider particularly in light of the "unravelling" of the Japanese- American relationship that has become evident over the past year.

日本的安全问题也会导致中日关系恶化。日本是世界第三大经济体,而中国是第五个拥有核武器的国家。日本依赖并投身于美国的"核保护伞",以抵御中国不断增长的核力量。但是,如果美日安保协定在日本人眼里变得不可靠,日本将被迫另辟蹊径,在核世界里寻求非核国家的安生立命之所。方法之一就是摇身变成核国家。日本人不愿如此,因为他们深知核武化会让许多贸易伙伴恐慌,并毁掉任何与中国和解的机会。但核武道路是日本决策者必须考虑的,尤其是在去年日美关系明显"瓦解"的情况下。

For the time being the Japanese are seeking to display their independence of the United States in the hope that this posture will make the Chinese more willing to negotiate with them over outstanding issues. During early 1972, for example, the Japanese sent a Foreign Ministry mission to Hanoi, recognized Bangladesh and the Mongolian People's Republic, made overtures to Pyongyang, and accepted Soviet Foreign Minister Gromyko's overtures for improved relations and for joint Soviet-Japanese ventures in the development of Siberia. These disparate moves were not so much signs of a new Japanese policy as evidence that one did not yet exist. If China will coexist with Japan only on Chinese terms, then the Japanese position is once again likely to stiffen and tensions between the two countries will grow. If China is prepared to compromise her differences with Japan through government-to-government negotiations, then the Japanese will surely make major concessions in order to see that the negotiations succeed. But even if negotiations can remove the immediate obstacles to improved relations, the long-standing rivalries between the two nations are likely to persist.

就目前而言,日本力图展示其独立于美国,希望这一姿态可让中国更愿意就未决问题与日方展开谈判。例如在72年初,日本人向河内派出外交使团、承认孟加拉国与蒙古人民共和国、主动接触平壤、接受苏联外交部长Gromyko关于增进苏日关系并联合开发西伯利亚地区的倡议。这些不同的举动更说明了日本的外交政策尚未形成,而不是日本改变了现有政策。如果中国一意孤行,日本的立场很可能再次变得强硬,两国关系越发紧张。如果中国愿意通过政府间对话在中日分歧上做出让步,那么日本人必将做出重大妥协以促使谈判的成功。但是,即使谈判能消除眼前的障碍,中日两国一贯以来的敌对状态很可能将持续下去。
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译后感:原文作者Chalmers Johnson曾任加州大学伯克利分校中国研究中心主任,中情局顾问。这是他在40多岁时的作品。感觉他非常偏向日本,基本上是在为日本喊话,对日本罪行轻描淡写,下重笔把它描绘成受尽委屈的小媳妇,甚至鼓动日本走核武道路。他笔下的中国则漫天要价,得理不饶人。作为东亚问题专家,原作者显然对史实了如指掌,感觉他故意搞不清谁才是中日恩仇的受害者。
文章很长,很考验读者的耐心
真的好长。。。马克一下慢慢看
其实根本没必要看洋人怎么看我们和倭寇的之间的怨恨,只要我们自己清楚就行。
一句老话“出来混,迟早都要还的”
LZ辛苦,慢慢看
只有仇恨,没有爱情
日本如果像md所说的那样,谋求成为有核国家,那么就是av民族灭亡的时候了。这一点日本人不会不参透吧?
偶尔抽中华 发表于 2011-9-10 02:01
日本如果像md所说的那样,谋求成为有核国家,那么就是av民族灭亡的时候了。这一点日本人不会不参透吧?{:15 ...
你还别说要是真的能参透,日本猪就成人了。。。

老美对狗日的了解其实挺深刻的,毕竟管制了这么多年
太长了,看得吃力。
不认同文章中的观点。
现在,是日本要适应中国重新成为经济是啊无数倍的国家的现实了
不说神马爱恨之类,日本的地理位置很好,对tg来说,是个挺进太平洋的前进基地,tg应当争取把狗链从米蒂手里夺过来
看完了,好长。此人收了不少日元。。
无解....老外还是熟读点中国历史吧...凡犯我汉族者..不是被灭就被赶或者被同化...日本大概就被灭+同化的份了..
我看到一半发觉有点不对劲,翻上去看看日期,1972年7月
飞翔的轰炸机 发表于 2011-9-10 07:26
我看到一半发觉有点不对劲,翻上去看看日期,1972年7月
那个时期应该算是中美俄日博弈最激烈的
只有仇恨,没有爱情
严重同意的顶一个
只看了个标题,没看内容也知道大概是某些鼓吹一依带水之类淡化仇恨的东西
好不容易看完了,累.
对倭人而言,只能让其仰视,对视是有巨大风险的.
1972年7月,天啊。
有过爱情么...
用貌似科学的文字隐藏着好多狗屎一般的观点。
赤裸裸的侵略,轻描淡写地成了为了平息反日民族主义而进行的军事干预,说起来还师出有名了?
经济无数倍于中国并将无限期如此?现在可以把脸打肿了吗?
1972年7月.。。。。。
属不属于陈年挖坟贴。。。。
要是按题目说。。都对视了。。。就可以推了
感觉这文章貌似有年头了,可能比我年纪还大。。。。。。
这标题真JB恶心,还爱,还情……
此文可以萌化翻译。这是唯一的价值。
楼主辛苦了。
感觉文章里面那种日本人都快死绝了。21世纪的日本人……
这文章。。。。得是多闲才能扯出这样蛋啊。。。。
专门前来顶贴,楼主大牛
翻那么多,确实辛苦了,说到底实力就是一切,没有实力,你怎么能指望老外用仰视的目光来写文章呢。
中国人里如果谁对倭畜有什么情或爱, 俺强烈诅咒其祖宗十八代。
不知道现在作者再重新写这个题目会怎样写
看了一半,感觉是老文...而且是很老的那种观点。
飞翔的轰炸机 发表于 2011-9-10 07:26
我看到一半发觉有点不对劲,翻上去看看日期,1972年7月
我也是看到 日本经济无数倍于中国 感觉不对了
72年的文章,早就事异时移了。
其实72年后到苏联解体,中日关系比现在好的多,因为有共同的威胁。
至于现在,实力才是硬道理
偶尔抽中华 发表于 2011-9-10 02:01
日本如果像md所说的那样,谋求成为有核国家,那么就是av民族灭亡的时候了。这一点日本人不会不参透吧?{:15 ...
七十年代,日本被攥在美国手里更紧些吧,另外那个年代,日本对自己有一种莫名的自信,认为不需要武力也可以“征服”世界。这在八十年代达到一个高峰。当然有识的日本人也认识到被美国抓住睾丸悲惨局势仍无改变,但是在那个时代没有人听得他们的声音。
tx207 发表于 2011-9-10 07:34
那个时期应该算是中美俄日博弈最激烈的
呃……时移世易,这个文章已经没有什么价值了,更何况作者的观点在我看来根本就是渣渣…………
中日之间没有误解更没有爱,只有仇恨!
怎么可能有“爱”,“情”呢?
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/ar ... he-middling-kingdom

September/October 2011
《外交事务》2011年九/十月期

The Middling Kingdom
中流王国(按:一般称中国为middle kingdom, 作者改成middling意为中等、二流)

The Hype and the Reality of China’s Rise
中国崛起的盛名与现实

Salvatore Babones
SALVATORE BABONES is Senior Lecturer in Sociology and Social Policy at the University of Sydney, in Australia.
原文作者为悉尼大学高级讲师

By any measure, China's economic growth has been unprecedented, even miraculous. According to the International Monetary Fund, the Chinese economy grew by an average of 9.6 percent per year between 1990 and 2010. At the beginning of the recent global financial crisis, many feared that the Chinese growth engine would grind to a halt. In late 2008, Chinese exports collapsed, triggering fears of political instability and popular revolt in the country. In the end, however, the global economic crisis turned out to be little more than a pothole on the road of China's economic growth. Inflationary pressures may now be building up in China, and China's property bubble may be threatening to burst, but most economists continue to predict rapid growth for the country well into the future. Although their forecasts vary widely, they seem to share the view that China's growth will be fast -- if not as fast as it has been -- and that this rate of growth will continue for decades. These predictions are at once cautious about the near future (China's performance will not be as extraordinary as it has been) and optimistic about the distant future (they see no end to China's upward trajectory). By coincidence or design, they are moderated extrapolations of current trends.

无论从何种角度衡量,中国经济的成长都是史无前例、甚至是奇迹般的。据国际货币基金组织,1990年至2010年中国经济以年均9.6%的速度增长。在最近的全球金融危机开始之初,许多人担忧中国经济增长引擎会熄火。08年末,中国出口崩溃,引发中国政治失稳与社会动荡的恐慌。但是,全球经济危机最终不过是中国经济成长路上的一个坑洼。目前,中国通胀压力加大、房地产泡沫有破裂之势,但大多数经济学家依然预测该国经济在未来相当长的时间里仍将保持快速增长。虽然他们的预测各不相同,但有一点是一致的,即中国的成长是快速的——虽然较前期有所减缓——且将持续数十年以上。这些预测短期警惕(中国的表现不会象以前一样出众)但长期看好(他们认为中国的上升曲线看不到头)。有意无意地,这些预测是对目前势态的保守推演。

(按:意指目前的经济问题对未来的影响要比大多数经济学家所估计的要严重。)

For example, the Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Fogel believes that China will grow at an average annual rate of eight percent until 2040, by which time it will be twice as rich as Europe (in per capita terms) and its share of global GDP will be 40 percent (compared with 14 percent for the United States and five percent for the European Union). Other economists are slightly more cautious: Uri Dadush and Bennett Stancil of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace predict that China will grow by 5.6 percent per year through 2050.

比如,诺贝尔奖得主、经济学家Robert Fogel认为,中国将以年均8%的速度增长至2040年,届时中国人均收入将是欧洲的两倍,中国总体经济将占全球GDP的40%,相比之下,美国占14%,欧盟占5%。其他的经济学家则较为保守,卡内基的Uri Dadush和Bennett Stancil预测,中国将以年均5.6%的速度增长至2050年。

Like many other forecasts of China's continued rise, these projections are based on careful formal economic modeling. But are they convincing? Extrapolating from current trends may make sense when predicting growth in the next year and the year after that, but once the years turn into decades, such assumptions seem more questionable.

如同其它许多关于中国增长的预测,这些预测均建立在严谨的正式经济模型之上。但它们可信吗?从目前趋势推测明年或后年的增长是可行的,但当数年变成数十年,这些假设就很成问题了。

…. China's economy is evolving rapidly: from subsistence agriculture to smokestack industries to the latest electronics to consumer services. And at some point in the future, perhaps in the not-too-distant future, China's excess growth rates will level out and its economic growth will slow down, returning to rates more like those experienced by comparable countries.

中国经济变化很快:从以农业为主进化到重工业到最新的电子产品再到服务业。在将来某个时间点(或许并不遥远)中国的超高速成长将减缓,逐渐回归到类似国家曾经历过的成长速度。

WHEN THE GROWING GETS TOUGH
高处不盛寒

It may seem foolish in 2011 to even talk about calling a top to the Chinese market. Judging by the Fogel and Dadush-Stancil models, there seem to be no medium-term barriers to China's growth. So long as the country's urban labor force continues to expand, its educational levels continue to rise, and capital continues to move into China, the Chinese economy should continue to grow.

在2011年讨论中国增长见顶似乎很可笑。按照Fogel和 Dadush-Stancil的模型,中国的成长不存在中期障碍。只要城市劳动力大军继续扩大、受教育水平继续提高、外资继续涌入,中国经济将持续上升。

But are things as simple as that? For one thing, economic models tend to downplay the fact that as countries grow, growth gets harder. When economies move up global value chains, graduating from the production of simple manufactured goods to a reliance on the creativity of their citizens to develop new industries, they rise less and less rapidly. It took South Korea 30 years, from 1960 to 1990, to raise its GDP per capita from one-thirtieth of U.S. GDP per capita to one-third -- but then it took another 20 years to nudge its way up from one-third to one-half. And South Korea today is still a long way from catching up with the United States. Japan caught up with the West (and by some accounts exceeded it) in the 1980s, but then the bubble burst, and since 1990 its economy has grown by an average of just one percent per year.

但事情有这么简单吗?比如,经济模型往往忽视了一个国家越发展阻力就越大的事实。当一个国家攀登全球价值链,从简单工业品发展至国内自主创新时,上升的速度会越来越慢。从1960年到1990年,韩国用了30年的时间将人均GDP从美国的三十分之一提高到三分之一,但却用了20年的时间从三分之一逐步提升至二分之一。现如今韩国赶超美国的路依然漫长。日本在上世纪八十年代追上西方,在一些方面甚至超过西方,但自1990年以来,其年均增幅只有1%。

What is more, these two states have been vastly more successful than most others. No other medium-sized or large country with a diversified economy has even come close to Japan's accomplishments. Of the four "Asian tigers," the richest two (Hong Kong and Singapore) are cities, and the other two (South Korea and Taiwan) are basically cities-plus and are much farther behind economically. Other poor countries that have become rich are either offshore financial centers or small petro-sheikdoms. None of them is a full-sized country with multiple cities and regions, a large rural population, and competing political constituencies. Even Japan represents a questionable model of a state recently and rapidly catching up to the West, if only because it had already achieved much of its progress before World War II. Like the leading Western countries, it industrialized in the late nineteenth century and early twentieth century, partly through ruthless colonial exploitation. Its economy was then bombed into oblivion during World War II; thus, its rapid postwar growth was to some extent a return to prewar levels. In other words, there is no example to date of a state taking a very rapid growth trajectory to the top of the world economy, raising doubts about whether China can be the unlikely exception.

此外,日韩二国比其它大多数国家要成功得多。没有任何一个经济多元化的中等以上规模国家能与日本的成就相提并论。在亚洲四虎中,最富的两家(香港和新加坡)是城市,另两家(韩国和台湾)则为城市群且在经济上远为落后。其它由贫变富的国家不是离岸金融中心就是小型石油富国。没有一个是拥有多个城市、地区、大量农业人口、相互竞争的政治选区的大型国家。即使日本也不是在近期内快速追上西方的理想范例,因为它在二战之前就已走完了大部分的发展历程。如同西方先进国家,日本在19世纪末至20世纪初进行了工业化——部分地通过无情的殖民掠夺。二战期间,日本经济被战火夷平,其战后的快速发展在某种程度上是回归到战前水平。换言之,到目前为止世界上还没有成功快速登顶全球经济之巅的案例,中国能否成为不大可能的特例令人怀疑。

China's recent growth is often characterized as the country's natural, deserved return to its historical place in the global economy, but this argument is more clever than correct. According to the late economic historian Angus Maddison, China last reached parity with the West around the time of Marco Polo. China's subsequent decline relative to the West long predates the Industrial Revolution, Western colonialism, and even China's sixteenth-century inward turn. The overarching story of the past five centuries is not about China's absolute decline so much as about the West's relative advance. European economies grew substantially between 1500 and 1800. According to Maddison, by 1820 -- before the advent of the railroad, the telegraph, and the modern steel industry, and before the Opium Wars, the colonization of Hong Kong, and the Boxer Rebellion -- China's national income per capita was less than half that of the average for European countries. By 1870, it had dropped to 25 percent, and by 1970, to just seven percent. Moreover, considering that Maddison's figures are all estimates based on purchasing power parity, China's position in hard-currency terms looks far worse. According to hard-currency statistics from the World Bank, between 1976 and 1994, Chinese GDP per capita was less than two percent of U.S. GDP per capita, and today it is still under ten percent.

中国近期的增长经常被形容成该国自然地、理所当然地回归到它在全球经济中的历史地位,这一论断很聪明但不甚准确。据已故经济史学家Angus Maddison称,中国上一次与西方平起平坐,大约在马克波罗时期。之后,中国相对于西方而言的衰落,远远早于工业革命、西方殖民主义、甚至16世纪以来中国的封闭政策。过去五个世纪的大事件不是中国的绝对衰落而是西方的相对进步。欧洲经济在1500年至1800年间显著增长。按Maddison的说法,至1820年前——早于铁路、电报、现代钢铁业、鸦片战争、香港割据、义和团运动——中国人均收入不足欧洲的一半。至1870年则为四分之一,至1970年,仅为百分之七。此外,Maddison的数据乃基于实际购买力,如换算成硬通货则更为糟糕。按照世界银行硬通货统计,中国人均GDP在1976年至1994年不足美国的百分之二,即使在今天也不及其一成。

In other words, China's massive economic growth over the past two decades has done nothing more -- and perhaps much less -- than return the country to its 1870 position (in terms of purchasing power parity). Optimists will see this as further evidence of China's potential: if China is at only 1870 levels, there is still plenty of room for further growth. But pessimists might note that if China could fall from this position in 1870, it might well fall from it again. There is no reason, on the face of it, to expect one outcome or the other; a conservative bet would be that China stays right where it is.

换言之,中国经济在过去20年的飞速增长不过是将该国恢复到1870年的地位(按购买力统计)。乐观者将视其为中国潜力的证据:如果现在中国仅为1870年的水平,其成长空间依然巨大。但悲观者可这样认为:中国曾在1870年从该水平上跌落下来,今天同样可能再次跌倒。从目前看,没有理由相信上述任何一个结果,保守一点估计是中国将保持现有地位。

ONE-TIME BENEFITS
一次性红利

Another reason that economic models forecasting China's continuing rise are too simplistic is that they tend to ignore both the one-time boosts that helped propel the country in the past and the political, environmental, and structural obstacles that will limit its growth in the future. China is now in a much stronger political and military position vis-à-vis the West than it was in 1870 and seems very unlikely to descend into another century-long ordeal of repeated human and economic catastrophes. But does that necessarily mean it will grow to become the world's richest country?

那些预计中国将持续上升的经济模型过于简单化的原因还在于它们倾向于忽视在过去推动中国经济的一次性红利以及在将来制约其发展的政治、环境和结构性因素。相对西方而言,中国在政治上、军事上的地位要远远强于1870年,并且很不可能跌落回另一个百年屈辱。但这意味着中国必将成为世界首富吗?

China's dramatic rise over the past 20 years was propelled by two one-time bonuses: the population's declining fertility rate and its increasing urbanization. Both factors have led to massive increases in economic productivity, but they are finite processes and cannot be counted on in the future. China's fertility rate was already falling well before the first implementation of its draconian one-child policy in 1979. The decline in fertility in the 1970s meant that throughout the 1980s and 1990s, both families and the state could focus their limited resources on a relatively small number of children. Now, these children are in their mid-30s and are actively contributing to the development of the country's human capital and to its GDP. Future generations may be even better educated, but the major gains have already been made. More important, low fertility rates over the past few decades freed up adults, particularly women, to enter the formal labor market. Hundreds of millions of women who would have worked in the home or on the farm are now working in the money economy, boosting the county's GDP figures. This has given China a one-time boost -- sustained higher output -- but it will not help GDP continue to grow. There is little room for further fertility decline; China cannot move to a zero-child policy.

中国在过去20年里戏剧性的提升得益于两大一次性红利:不断降低的人口出生率和不断提高的城市化水平。两大因素极大地促进了经济生产力,但它们都是有极限的过程,中国不能在未来继续仰仗于此。自1979年实施残酷的计划生育以来,中国的生育率已大幅下降,这意味着在上世纪八、九十年代,中国家庭和政府可以将有限的资源集中在数量相对较小的孩子身上。现在这一代人已过而立,正积极为中国的人力资源和GDP贡献力量。以后的几代人的受教育程度可能会更高,但最大的人口红利已然收获。更为重要的是,过去几十年的低生育率使成年人尤其是妇女得以步入正式的劳动力市场。数亿名原有可能在家或农场劳作的妇女能够加入货币经济中来,提高了国家的GDP。一次性红利不能持续性地推动GDP成长,生育率进一步降低的空间已经很小,中国总不能实施零生育政策。

Moreover, there are today comparatively large numbers of workers born in the high-fertility 1950s, 1960s, and early 1970s making their way through their careers. Because their parents' generation is dying relatively young and because they have few children, these workers are largely unencumbered by either caregiving or child-rearing duties. Of all the generations of Chinese throughout history, this one is uniquely positioned to pursue work and create wealth. Future generations of Chinese workers will be smaller and will be saddled with the care of ever more elderly relatives. Moreover, fertility rates can only rise going forward, meaning that these workers may have more children to care for as well.

此外,中国现在仍有较多劳动者出生于上世纪五、六十年代及七十年代初等这些高生育率时期。由于他们的子女较少且父母一代人均寿命较低,这一代劳动者的养老与育儿等后顾之忧较小。在中国历史上,这代人有着追求工作和创造财富的独特优势。往后几代,劳动者人数将下降,又要承担更重的养老压力。此外,由于生育率必将上涨,他们还需抚养更多的小孩。

Increasing urbanization is the other one-time bonus that boosted China's economic growth during the past 20 years. Urbanization increases GDP because urban populations are generally more productive than rural ones and because city dwellers typically work outside the home in paid employment, whereas many people in the countryside engage in unpaid subsistence farming. But like fertility reduction, urbanization is a process with natural limits. China's level of urbanization is still well below that of the West, and urban expansion in China shows no signs of slowing down. (At current growth rates, urbanization in China will not catch up to urbanization in the West or Latin America until the 2040s.) But what form will this expansion take? Huge shantytowns are already forming on the edges of Beijing, Shanghai, and other Chinese megacities. The Chinese government bulldozes shanties by the hundreds of thousands every year, but it is unclear whether their residents are being relocated or just being made homeless. Whether or not the government wins its war against slum development, the days when urbanization was a boost to economic growth are gone.

城市化进程是过去二十年中国成长的另一大一次性推动力。因为城市人口总体上比农村人口生产力更高、城市居民大多出门从事有报酬的工作而许多农民忙于没有金钱回报的农务,所以城市化能够提高GDP。如同生育率的降低,城市化进程也是一个有自然极限的过程。中国的城市化水平依然远低于西方国家,并且还没有减缓的迹象。按照目前的速度,中国城市化水平要到本世纪40年代才能赶上西方或拉美。但是这一扩张会以何种面目出现?北京、上海及中国其它超大城市周围已经形成巨大的贫民窟。中国政府每年铲除数十万的棚户,这些居民是被重新安置还是直接成为流浪汉则不得而知。无论政府能否赢得清扫棚户的战斗,城市化作为推进经济增长的日子一去不复返了。
STRUCTURAL STRICTURES
结构性制约

In addition, China is facing political, environmental, and structural barriers that will limit its economic growth in the future. For example, many analysts believe that China will not be able to move up the global value-added chain unless its politics open up. The argument is that high-value-added activities, such as branding, design, and invention, require a kind of free thinking possible only in democratic societies. China may educate hundreds of thousands of engineers, but if it continues to stifle their creativity, they will never succeed at the highest levels of the global economy. China will not reach the top ranks of the global economy (in terms of GDP per capita) until its schools, companies, and people learn to innovate more than they have in the past. This is happening, but China's stifling political culture is hindering the process. It is difficult to imagine a dynamic knowledge economy emerging in a politically repressive one-party state; none ever has before.

另外,中国还面临着制约其未来发展的政治、环境和结构性障碍。比如,许多分析家认为除非政治开放,否则中国无法在全球价值链上提升。理由是高附加值产业,如品牌授权、设计、发明等,需要只能存活在民主社会的自由思维。中国也许能够培养出数十万的工程师,但如果政府继续压制他们的创造力,他们永远无法在全球经济的最高峰获得成功。除非中国的学校、公司和国民学会比以前更会创新,中国将不可能站在世界经济的顶峰。中国正在攀升,但它令人窒息的政治文化拖了后腿。难以想象充满活力的知识型经济会出现在一个政治压抑的一党专制国家,至少史无先例。

The environmental barriers to China's continued growth are better documented. The World Health Organization estimates that air pollution in China kills 656,000 people annually and water pollution another 95,600; China's own Ministry of Water Resources estimates that about 300 million people, two-thirds of them in rural areas, rely on water that contains "harmful substances." According to The New York Times, officials from China's State Council have said that the massive Three Gorges Dam is plagued by "urgent problems" that "must be resolved regarding the smooth relocation of residents, ecological protection, and geological disaster prevention." China is also now the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases. The great drought and floods that have hit China so far this year may or may not be related to its environmental record, but it is clear that China's ability to monetize its environment to promote economic growth without regard for ecological devastation is coming to an end. China's future growth will have to be cleaner than its past growth; thus, it will be more expensive. Long a densely populated country, China has always had one of the most intensively exploited environments in the world. Today, it has little environment left to exploit.

环境因素制约中国的持续性发展更是有据可查。世界卫生组织估计每年约有65万6千人死于空气污染、另有9万5千6百人死于水污染。中国水资源部部长估计约3亿人(三分之二位于农村)依赖于含有害物质的水源。据《纽约时报》,中国国务院官员称三峡大坝受"紧急问题"困扰,这些急待解决的问题涉及如何平稳安置移民、生态保护和地质灾害防护等。中国还是世上头号温室气体排放国。今年以来中国遭受的特旱特涝指不定与其环境记录有关,但有一点是明确的:中国无视生态恶化、将环境货币化以推动经济成长的日子不多了。中国未来的成长必须走更为绿色的路子,这也意味着成本更高。作为长期以来人口密集的国家,中国的环境一直最受掠夺,但如今可供掠夺的环境资源所剩无几。

Still, the greatest barriers to China's continuing rapid economic growth are structural. Until 1980, the country was effectively closed to the world; by 1992, nearly all of urban China had been incorporated into special economic zones open to private enterprise and foreign investment. The incredibly inefficient Maoist economy is gone and has been replaced by some of the most competitive firms in the world. Creating more value than did state industries during the Cultural Revolution was not very difficult. But creating more value than today's efficient Chinese firms do will be much harder. 

然而,中国经济持续快速增长的最大障碍是结构性的。直到1980年,中国事实上仍处于闭关锁国状态;到1992年,几乎所有的城镇都划入了特别经济区,对私人企业和外国投资开发。效率低得令人难以相信的毛式经济被抛弃,取而代之的是一些世界上最有竞争力的公司。比文革中的国企创造出更多的价值不是什么难事,但要超过现有的高效率公司绝非轻松。

This difficulty will be exacerbated by major structural changes in the economy. Since 1960, life expectancy in China has risen from 47 years to 74 years, but the number of children per family has declined from more than five to fewer than two. Today's little emperors will spend their most productive years taking care of their parents. And as they do, China's economic activity will have to move away from high-productivity manufacturing and toward low-productivity health services. This shift will further limit China's future growth prospects because productivity is harder to increase in service industries than in manufacturing, mining, or agriculture. In the past, to make the most of their comparative advantage, Chinese producers focused on manufacturing for the world's industrial market. In the future, Chinese service providers will have no choice but to focus on the domestic health-care market, without regard for getting an edge.

这一困难将因为经济中的重大结构性变动而加剧。自1960年以来,中国人的预期寿命从47岁增至74岁,但每个家庭的小孩从5个减少到不足2个。今天的小皇帝们将在赡养父母中度过他们最有生产力的岁月。同时,中国经济将从高产出的制造业转向低产出的医疗行业。这一转型将进一步制约中国未来的增长前景,因为服务业的产出增量要比制造业、矿产业和农业更难以实现。在过去,中国集中精力于面向世界工业市场的制造业,以充分利用它的比较优势。在未来,中国的服务业将不得不关注于国内医疗市场,无暇顾及对外竞争。

CAN-DO OR HAS-DONE?
将来时或完成时?

Many commentators, most notably the political scientists George Gilboy and Eric Heginbotham, have warned recently of the "Latin Americanization" of China, specifically its rising income inequality. In 2003, China had just one billionaire (as measured in U.S. dollars); by 2011, according to Forbes magazine, it had 115. Yet China is still a poor country: GDP per capita in hard-currency terms is substantially lower in China (under $5,000) than in Brazil, Mexico, and Russia ($9,000-$10,000), the world's three big middle-income countries. But as China catches up to them, its inequality levels are also rising to levels close to theirs.

许多评论家,包括政治学家George Gilboy和 Eric Heginbotham都在最近警告中国的拉美化,尤其是不断加剧的贫富差距。在2003年,中国只有一名资产超十亿美元的富豪,到2011年,据《福布斯》杂志称,中国有115名。然而,中国仍是一个穷国,以硬通货计,中国人均GDP不到5000美元,远低于世界三大中等收入国家巴西、墨西哥和俄罗斯九千至一万美元的水平。但当中国赶上这些国家,其贫富差距也将与它们也越来越接近。

China shares many features with Brazil, Mexico, and Russia. Sociologists have identified these four countries as belonging to the "semi-periphery" of the world economy, a group of states that are not as rich and powerful as the developed democracies but not as poor as the small countries of Africa, Central America, and Southeast Asia. (Other examples include Indonesia and Turkey.) These countries are characterized by strong states with weak institutions, governments highly influenced by the richest citizens, and mass poverty.

中国有着许多巴西、墨西哥和俄罗斯等国的特征。社会学家们曾将该四国归类于全球经济中的"半边缘化"国家:不如西方民主国家富强,但不象非洲、中美洲、东南亚小国那么穷。(其它的半边缘化国家的例子还有印尼和土耳其。)这些国家的特征是政府强大、制度薄弱、最富有的人对政府有巨大的影响力以及大量贫困人口。

At its current growth rates, China will likely catch up to Brazil, Mexico, and Russia around the year 2020 in terms of per capita GDP. At that point, all four states will have per capita national income levels between $10,000 and $15,000 (in today's dollars). All will also have similar levels of economic inequality -- levels far higher than those in the developed countries. Their people will not experience serious hunger or malnutrition, but they will know mass squalor. About 40 percent of these countries' populations will live in large cities, and about 20 percent will live in rural areas, with the rest in small cities and towns. Their fertility rates will have fallen somewhat under replacement levels, and about two-thirds of their populations will be between the ages of 16 and 65. In the face of rapid aging, these countries will need to shift their economies away from growth industries and toward slow-growth health-care services.

按目前的发展速度,中国人均GDP将有可能在2020年前后赶上巴西、墨西哥和俄罗斯。届时,四国国民收入水平介于一万到一万五千美元水平(以今天的美元计);他们的贫富差距水平相当,但远远高于发达国家;其国民不会遭受严重的饥荒或营养不良,但会存在大量贱民;约四成人口集中在大城市、二成在农村、剩下的分布在小城镇;生育率稍低于可替代率水平,三分之二的人口处于16岁至65岁之间;面对迅速老化的人口,这些国家不得不将其经济转向于低增长的医疗服务业。

All of which raises this question: If in 2020, China will almost certainly face structural conditions nearly identical to those in Brazil, Mexico, and Russia, why should anyone expect it to grow any faster than them? Brazil and Mexico have belonged to the middle-income league for generations. Russia was in that bracket in the early twentieth century and returned to it immediately after the collapse of communism. China was there in 1870, and it is back there again. Granted, China is bigger than those countries, but there is no reason to think that being big makes it different. Historical statistics show no correlation between a country's size and its economic growth.

这就提出一个问题:几乎肯定地,中国将于2020年在结构上变得与巴西、墨西哥和俄罗斯等国几乎一致,有谁会相信中国比其它三国发展得更快?巴西和墨西哥已在中等收入国家的水平上呆了几代人。俄罗斯在20世纪初曾是中等收入国家,苏联解体后立刻被打回原型。中国在1870年曾经如此,现正回归该地位。当然,中国比其它三国要大,但规模不是成为特例的理由。历史统计并未体现规模与经济增长之间的联系。

Perhaps China's proactive attitude toward development will allow it to power through the middle ranks of the global income distribution despite a weak civil society, an aging population, and a devastated environment. And having already returned to its nineteenth-century position relative to the West, perhaps China might eventually regain its thirteenth-century superiority over the West. Structure is not destiny. And if China does overcome its limitations, it could provoke a complete realignment of the international system.

或许中国对发展的热切态度将助其打破诸如薄弱的市民社会、人口老龄化、环境衰竭等制约,从中等收入国家行列中脱颖而出,在回归至19世纪水平的基础上,恢复到13世纪东方压倒西方的盛景。结构并非宿命,如中国果真能够克服其局限性,它可能引发国际体系的大洗牌。

But it is more reasonable to see China's famous can-do attitude as more of a has-done attitude: a legitimate pride in recent accomplishments rather than a harbinger of future success. Like other middle-income countries, China will likely continue to grow slightly faster than Western countries, although not as fast as it did between 1990 and 2010 and with much more volatility. But its population will start to fall soon after 2020, whereas the U.S. population will keep rising. The overall size of China's economy is thus likely to remain roughly equal to that of the United States for the remainder of the twenty-first century. This is not to say that China will not become a major world player. Even if it reaches only parity with the United States in terms of overall GDP and attains only about one-quarter of U.S. GDP per capita, it will still be a power to be reckoned with. It will become the second indispensable country.

但是,将中国著名的"能干"态度解释为"已完成"心态则更为理性:一股为当前成就油然而生的自豪感,而不是未来成功的预兆。如同其它中等发达国家,中国仍然会以稍快于西方的速度发展,但不会象1990至2010年那样快,并且将遭遇更多的动荡。2020年以后,中国人口将下降,而美国人口上升,因此,中国经济整体规模将在21世纪余下的时间里与美国基本持平。但是这并不意味着中国不会在国际上扮演主要角色。当中国经济总量与美国持平,虽然人均GDP只有美国的四分之一,它仍将成为一支重要力量。届时,中国将稳坐世界第二把交椅。

But given the United States' far greater alliance network and geostrategic position, U.S. hegemony is not threatened by the rise of China. The United States is encircled by long-standing allies (Canada and the countries of western Europe) or stable but weak noncompetitors (Latin America). China's neighbors are a rich and powerful Japan, rising South Korea and Vietnam, giant India and Russia, and a host of failed or failing states in Central and Southeast Asia. The United States reigns supreme over the oceans, the skies, and outer space; China struggles to maintain order within its own territory. China will, and legitimately should, play an increasing role in Asian and world politics, but it is in no position to dominate even Asia, never mind the world.

但由于美国拥有远为强大的联盟体系和地缘策略地位,美国霸权不会受到中国崛起的威胁。美国被长期以来的盟友(如加拿大和西欧诸国)及稳定但弱小的非竞争国家(拉美)环伺。中国的近邻则有富强的日本、上升中的韩国和越南、庞大的俄罗斯和印度以及一干已失败或正在败落的中、东南亚国家。美国横行于大洋、天空和外太空,中国则忙于整顿家务。中国将理所当然地在亚洲及世界事务中扮演日益重要的角色,但它无法统治亚洲,更不要提整个世界。

Pundits may relish the opportunity to speculate about a post-American future in which the world has to learn Mandarin, but the facts say not in this century. It is time to start treating China like a large but ordinary country. The rest of the world should neither relish nor fear the prospect of Chinese domination. Putting aside the hype and the panic, one should see in China a country that suffered terrible tragedy for 200 years and is finally returning to normal. This is a good thing -- for China, for the United States, and for the world. If the international system comes to see China, and China comes to see itself, as an important but not all-powerful participant in the global system, irrational fears will diminish on all sides, and rightly so. Tomorrow's China is more likely to focus on meeting the needs of its own people than on establishing itself as the new global hegemon.

学者们或许会垂涎于猜想一个大家都得学中文的后美国时代,但事实说明这不会在本世纪发生。是时候将中国视作一个巨大但普通的国家。其它国家不该期待或害怕中国会一统天下。将浮夸与恐慌搁置一旁,应该视中国为一个经历了200年悲惨遭遇、终于回归正常的国家。这对中国、美国、整个世界都有好处。如果国际社会与中国自身视其为一个重要但不是一统江湖的力量,非理性的恐惧将会在各方消淡,并理应如此。相较于建立全球新霸权,明天的中国将更有可能奔忙于满足国民的需求。