超级军网老外看GDP：为何到2040年中国GDP能达到123万亿美元
来源：百度文库 编辑：超级军网 时间：2024/05/02 16:53:49
Why China's Economy Will Grow to $123 Trillion by 2040
这是一篇诺贝尔经济学奖得主"罗伯特·福格尔"的文章。国人经常不屑评论GDP，老外也同样不屑GDP。看来人均和幸福指数估计才是大家所关心的！
龙腾网原文摘要：
In 2040, the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, or nearly three times the economic output of the entire globe in 2000. China's per capita income will hit $85,000, more than double the forecast for the EuropeanUnion, and also much higher than that of India and Japan.
Most accounts of China's economic ascent offer little but vague or threatening generalities, and they usually grossly underestimate the extent of the rise -- and how fast it's coming.
What, precisely, does China have going so right for it?
The first essential factor that is often overlooked: the enormous investment China is making in education. More educated workers are much more productive workers.
The second thing many underestimate when making projections for China's economy is the continued role of the rural sector.That large rural sector is responsible for about a third of Chinese economic growth today, and it will not disappear in the next 30 years.
Third, though it's a common refrain that Chinese data are flawed or deliberately inflated in key ways, Chinese statisticians may well be underestimating economic progress. This is especially true in the service sector because small firms often don't report their numbers to the governmentand officials often fail to adequately account for improvements in the quality of output.
Fourth, and most surprising to some, the Chinese political system is likely not what you think. In this sense, Chinese economic planning has become much more responsive and open to new ideas than it was in the past. Though China most certainly is not an open democracy, there's more criticism and debate in upper echelons of policymaking than many realize.
Finally, people don't give enough credit to China's long-repressed consumerist tendencies. In many ways, China is the most capitalist country in the world right now. In the big Chinese cities, living standards and per capita income are at the level of countries the World Bank would deem "high middle income," already higher. Indeed, the government has made the judgment that increasing domestic consumption will be critical to China's economy, and a host of domestic policies now aim to increase Chinese consumers' appetite for acquisitions.
Europe, by which I mean the 15 earliest EUmembers, faces twin challenges of demography and culture, its economic future burdened by a mix of reproductive habits and consumer restraint.Why China's Economy Will Grow to $123 Trillion by 2040
这是一篇诺贝尔经济学奖得主"罗伯特·福格尔"的文章。国人经常不屑评论GDP，老外也同样不屑GDP。看来人均和幸福指数估计才是大家所关心的！
龙腾网原文摘要：
In 2040, the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, or nearly three times the economic output of the entire globe in 2000. China's per capita income will hit $85,000, more than double the forecast for the EuropeanUnion, and also much higher than that of India and Japan.
Most accounts of China's economic ascent offer little but vague or threatening generalities, and they usually grossly underestimate the extent of the rise -- and how fast it's coming.
What, precisely, does China have going so right for it?
The first essential factor that is often overlooked: the enormous investment China is making in education. More educated workers are much more productive workers.
The second thing many underestimate when making projections for China's economy is the continued role of the rural sector.That large rural sector is responsible for about a third of Chinese economic growth today, and it will not disappear in the next 30 years.
Third, though it's a common refrain that Chinese data are flawed or deliberately inflated in key ways, Chinese statisticians may well be underestimating economic progress. This is especially true in the service sector because small firms often don't report their numbers to the governmentand officials often fail to adequately account for improvements in the quality of output.
Fourth, and most surprising to some, the Chinese political system is likely not what you think. In this sense, Chinese economic planning has become much more responsive and open to new ideas than it was in the past. Though China most certainly is not an open democracy, there's more criticism and debate in upper echelons of policymaking than many realize.
Finally, people don't give enough credit to China's long-repressed consumerist tendencies. In many ways, China is the most capitalist country in the world right now. In the big Chinese cities, living standards and per capita income are at the level of countries the World Bank would deem "high middle income," already higher. Indeed, the government has made the judgment that increasing domestic consumption will be critical to China's economy, and a host of domestic policies now aim to increase Chinese consumers' appetite for acquisitions.
Europe, by which I mean the 15 earliest EUmembers, faces twin challenges of demography and culture, its economic future burdened by a mix of reproductive habits and consumer restraint.
这是一篇诺贝尔经济学奖得主"罗伯特·福格尔"的文章。国人经常不屑评论GDP，老外也同样不屑GDP。看来人均和幸福指数估计才是大家所关心的！
龙腾网原文摘要：
In 2040, the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, or nearly three times the economic output of the entire globe in 2000. China's per capita income will hit $85,000, more than double the forecast for the EuropeanUnion, and also much higher than that of India and Japan.
Most accounts of China's economic ascent offer little but vague or threatening generalities, and they usually grossly underestimate the extent of the rise -- and how fast it's coming.
What, precisely, does China have going so right for it?
The first essential factor that is often overlooked: the enormous investment China is making in education. More educated workers are much more productive workers.
The second thing many underestimate when making projections for China's economy is the continued role of the rural sector.That large rural sector is responsible for about a third of Chinese economic growth today, and it will not disappear in the next 30 years.
Third, though it's a common refrain that Chinese data are flawed or deliberately inflated in key ways, Chinese statisticians may well be underestimating economic progress. This is especially true in the service sector because small firms often don't report their numbers to the governmentand officials often fail to adequately account for improvements in the quality of output.
Fourth, and most surprising to some, the Chinese political system is likely not what you think. In this sense, Chinese economic planning has become much more responsive and open to new ideas than it was in the past. Though China most certainly is not an open democracy, there's more criticism and debate in upper echelons of policymaking than many realize.
Finally, people don't give enough credit to China's long-repressed consumerist tendencies. In many ways, China is the most capitalist country in the world right now. In the big Chinese cities, living standards and per capita income are at the level of countries the World Bank would deem "high middle income," already higher. Indeed, the government has made the judgment that increasing domestic consumption will be critical to China's economy, and a host of domestic policies now aim to increase Chinese consumers' appetite for acquisitions.
Europe, by which I mean the 15 earliest EUmembers, faces twin challenges of demography and culture, its economic future burdened by a mix of reproductive habits and consumer restraint.Why China's Economy Will Grow to $123 Trillion by 2040
这是一篇诺贝尔经济学奖得主"罗伯特·福格尔"的文章。国人经常不屑评论GDP，老外也同样不屑GDP。看来人均和幸福指数估计才是大家所关心的！
龙腾网原文摘要：
In 2040, the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, or nearly three times the economic output of the entire globe in 2000. China's per capita income will hit $85,000, more than double the forecast for the EuropeanUnion, and also much higher than that of India and Japan.
Most accounts of China's economic ascent offer little but vague or threatening generalities, and they usually grossly underestimate the extent of the rise -- and how fast it's coming.
What, precisely, does China have going so right for it?
The first essential factor that is often overlooked: the enormous investment China is making in education. More educated workers are much more productive workers.
The second thing many underestimate when making projections for China's economy is the continued role of the rural sector.That large rural sector is responsible for about a third of Chinese economic growth today, and it will not disappear in the next 30 years.
Third, though it's a common refrain that Chinese data are flawed or deliberately inflated in key ways, Chinese statisticians may well be underestimating economic progress. This is especially true in the service sector because small firms often don't report their numbers to the governmentand officials often fail to adequately account for improvements in the quality of output.
Fourth, and most surprising to some, the Chinese political system is likely not what you think. In this sense, Chinese economic planning has become much more responsive and open to new ideas than it was in the past. Though China most certainly is not an open democracy, there's more criticism and debate in upper echelons of policymaking than many realize.
Finally, people don't give enough credit to China's long-repressed consumerist tendencies. In many ways, China is the most capitalist country in the world right now. In the big Chinese cities, living standards and per capita income are at the level of countries the World Bank would deem "high middle income," already higher. Indeed, the government has made the judgment that increasing domestic consumption will be critical to China's economy, and a host of domestic policies now aim to increase Chinese consumers' appetite for acquisitions.
Europe, by which I mean the 15 earliest EUmembers, faces twin challenges of demography and culture, its economic future burdened by a mix of reproductive habits and consumer restraint.
龙腾网 原创翻译 转载请注明出处
到2040年，中国经济产出将达到123万亿美元，或者说是2000年全球经济产出的3倍。中国人均收入将达到8.5万美元，是对欧盟预测值的两倍多，远高于印度和日本。
对于中国经济腾飞的大多数描述仅给出了模糊且带有威胁性的概括，这些说法通常都低估了崛起的实质内容——经济增速到底有多大。
准确地说，中国凭什么能够使其经济如此发达？
第一个重要因素便是中国对教育的巨大投资，我们都知道受过更良好教育的工人具有更高的生产力。第二个原因就是人们在预测中国经济时常常会低估的：中国农村在中国经济发展中所发挥的巨大作用。农村的发展占当今中国经济增长的三分之一，而且这部分增长在未来30年内都不会消失。第三，虽然人们普遍认为，中国的数据存在缺陷或者在一些重要产业有意抬高数据，而中国的统计学家可能恰恰低估了其经济的增长。这一点在服务业尤为明显，因为一些小公司往往不向政府报告数据，官员通常无法充分地计算其产出质量的提升。第四，这点对一些人来说或许最为惊奇，中国的政治体系可能不跟你想象的不一样。中国的经济计划得到了更多的反馈，与过去相比，更能接受新的想法。虽然中国不是完全的开放、民主，但是上层决策阶级的辩论和批评声比很多人想象的更多。最后，人们没能给予中国长期打压的消费主义趋势足够的信任。在很多方面，中国已是世界上最为资本主义的国家。中国的大城市的生活水平和人均收入已经达到了世界银行所认为的“中高收入”的水平，事实上，中国政府已经做出判断，即不断增加的国内消费对中国经济来说至关重要，现在一系列的国内政策旨在提升中国消费者对并购的兴趣。
而欧洲（指最早加入欧盟的15个成员国）正面临着人口和文化两大挑战，其未来经济受到生育习惯和消费节制双重负担的拖累。
到2040年，中国经济产出将达到123万亿美元，或者说是2000年全球经济产出的3倍。中国人均收入将达到8.5万美元，是对欧盟预测值的两倍多，远高于印度和日本。
对于中国经济腾飞的大多数描述仅给出了模糊且带有威胁性的概括，这些说法通常都低估了崛起的实质内容——经济增速到底有多大。
准确地说，中国凭什么能够使其经济如此发达？
第一个重要因素便是中国对教育的巨大投资，我们都知道受过更良好教育的工人具有更高的生产力。第二个原因就是人们在预测中国经济时常常会低估的：中国农村在中国经济发展中所发挥的巨大作用。农村的发展占当今中国经济增长的三分之一，而且这部分增长在未来30年内都不会消失。第三，虽然人们普遍认为，中国的数据存在缺陷或者在一些重要产业有意抬高数据，而中国的统计学家可能恰恰低估了其经济的增长。这一点在服务业尤为明显，因为一些小公司往往不向政府报告数据，官员通常无法充分地计算其产出质量的提升。第四，这点对一些人来说或许最为惊奇，中国的政治体系可能不跟你想象的不一样。中国的经济计划得到了更多的反馈，与过去相比，更能接受新的想法。虽然中国不是完全的开放、民主，但是上层决策阶级的辩论和批评声比很多人想象的更多。最后，人们没能给予中国长期打压的消费主义趋势足够的信任。在很多方面，中国已是世界上最为资本主义的国家。中国的大城市的生活水平和人均收入已经达到了世界银行所认为的“中高收入”的水平，事实上，中国政府已经做出判断，即不断增加的国内消费对中国经济来说至关重要，现在一系列的国内政策旨在提升中国消费者对并购的兴趣。
而欧洲（指最早加入欧盟的15个成员国）正面临着人口和文化两大挑战，其未来经济受到生育习惯和消费节制双重负担的拖累。
评论翻译：
M WILK
1:25 PM ET
Overly simplistic analysis like this are very misleading
This article reminds me very much of the kind of analysis which not to long ago predicted that Japan would now be the world's dominate economic power. Did you take into account that China's population is also aging? I believe that that by 2040 the Chinese population won't be that much younger than Europe's. I'm tired of the assumption that population growth is always an economic plus and that higher GDP makes the US or China superior to Europe or anyone else. Both India and China are going to struggle in the coming years to find enough resources to provide for billions of people. Its going to be a lot easier for Europe to maintain a reasonable standard of living. I don't understand why economists still don't seem to recognize such obvious physical limits. The total amounts of fossil fuel, farmland and fresh water and many other critical resources are fixed and will seriously impact China and India's potential for economic growth. GDP measures spending which does not reflect quality of life once basic needs are met. If I buy a giant SUV so I can drive 1/2 mile to buy a quart of milk I spend a lot more than those who use public transit or walk. Therefore, my contribution to the GDP is higher however, I would guess that most Europeans and NYC residents would take issue with my living standard being better.
这种过于笼统的分析有非常强的误导性。这篇文章让我想起不久前有一篇类似的分析，预测日本现在应该是世界经济最强国。。。。你难道（只看到中国人口众多）不把中国老龄化的问题考虑进去么？我确信到2040年中国人口不会比欧洲人年轻多少的。我已经听烦了人们说人口增长是推动经济增长的强心针，美国或者中国的GDP会因为人口的增多而强于欧洲或者其他国家的设想。过些年，中国和印度都得寻求足够的资源来满足国家人口的需要。但对于欧洲各国来说，达到合理的资源使用标准很容易。我一直都不明白为什么经济学家们都看不到如此现实固有的资源所带来的局限性。矿石燃料资源，耕地资源，淡水资源还有其他许多不可再生资源都会极大地影响中国或者印度经济增长潜力。GDP中消费部分的数据只能反映出基本需求得到满足，并不能反映出生活质量。假如我驾驶一辆SUV半公里就为了买一夸脱牛奶，那我所得牛奶花费要比坐公交或者步行的人多的多，但因为此我就为GDP的增高做出了贡献。我想大部分的欧洲人和纽约市民更关心自己的生活是不是变的更好（而不是简单的GDP数据）。
龙腾网 原创翻译 转载请注明出处
6:27 AM ET
China
The Chinese have done well for themselves in Taiwan, Singapore, Macau, Hong Kong, and... in North America, Africa, Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia...etc.
The People's Republic of China, as of 2010, in nominal value, is the world's second largest economy, the world's largest exporter, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is the world's largest bank by market capitalisation.
30 years of hard work.
Keep it up, China!
无论在台湾，新加坡，澳门，香港，甚至于北美，非洲，澳洲，大马，印尼等好多国家和地区中国大陆的人都非常优秀。
至于中国这个国家，就拿2010年举例来说，中国成为了世界上第二大经济体，世界最大出口国，中国工商银行总市值世界排名第一。
这些都是30年努力的结果。
中国，继续加油！！
ANDY YEE 9:42 AM ET
Stop the hype
When you predict on such a long timeframe, it is precisely when political factors become important (also 'isn't the sort of thing economists can base predictions on'). This is grossed over in one paragraph. And westerners conveniently forget (or are ignorant of) that when China was the number one economy in the world for 18 out of the last 20 centuries, it was plagued by intervals of chaos between dynasties.
别天花乱坠的鼓吹了。。。
既然你要预测多年以后的中国经济，就得把中国的政治因素考虑进去（这也是经济学家不能把握的部分）。西方人士经常忘记或者忽略了当中国在过去2000年中有1800年都是全球最强大的经济体时，欧洲还一直处于纷飞战火之中。。。。
ARCHIE BLUMENBAUM
9:03 AM ET
words of wisdom
glad i saw a ray of sanity here. yeah, i do hope the era of these narrow-minded economists, that worship the of "growth of GDP" so devoutly that they forgot that GDP is supposed to serve the people, and not vice versa. Quality of life and that elusive concept of "personal happiness" is the key issue. Not much of that here in China.
至理名言
嗯。。。真开心。。还能在这儿看到有头脑的人，是。。我非常希望这时代那些没啥脑子，就知道推崇GDP的经济学家们，千万不要忘记：GDP是为人们服务的，反之亦然。“生活质量”和“个人幸福指数”才是人们真正关心的问题。虽然中国人两者都不怎么样。
BALKAN_FALCON
5:54 PM ET
How did this guy get a Nobel prize?
I agree that is highly likely that China will surpass both US and EU in GDP.
But to argue that Chinese GDP will be over 35 times what it is today is ludicrous. He assumes constant growth of 13% for 30 years straight. So that China will grow substantially faster than it is growing today. All this is supposed to happen as growth moves form extensive (peasants moving to cities) to intensive growth (increasing productivity of workers who are already working in industries). it also assumes that the world's current resource and energy base can support this kind of growth
This is way too simplistic, even for an economist...
这位大叔是怎么得到诺贝尔经济学奖的？？（本文作者罗伯特·福格尔以他在计量经济史方面出色的工作荣获了1993年诺贝尔经济学奖。）
我非常同意中国会在GDP上轻易地超过美国和日本，但说中国GDP会是现在35倍的说法很荒谬。他的假设需要中国连续30年GDP增长保持13%，中国的发展要比现在更加快速，需要中国经济从粗放型转为集约型，并且要求世界现有资源和能源基地能满足中国经济增长需要。
他的这种分析对于一个经济学家来说实在是太笼统了。
BOOKFISHER
11:30 PM ET
I loved how...
...he failed to not explain how China will avoid the same demographic problems, he described Europe haves, I mean one child policy and deficits of women, must show its negative effects sometime, the pre one child generation cant work forever.
Besides if sex for fun and strolls along the seaside or riverside are bad, then Chicago must be a boring place to live
….他的失败之处就在于只讨论了欧洲的人口问题，却没意识到中国也有相同的问题存在，我指的是“一个家庭只生一个孩子”的政策，在一定时候一定会显现出其负面影响，因为只有一个孩子那一辈以前的孩子们不可能一直工作下去。
…并且，如果认为在海岸或者河边享受性是种罪恶的话，那我在芝加哥住着还有什么意思啊…
龙腾网 原创翻译 转载请注明出处
EXTRDOC
12:16 AM ET
yes..a lot missing from this analysis
楼上说的太对了。。这篇分析漏洞百出。。。
M WILK
11:13 AM ET
The Real Issue in 2050
The real issue, at least for the USA, will not be the state of China's economy but will our economy be able to provide meaningful economic opportunity for 500 million? We are already having trouble finding meaningful employment for 1/2 that number. Retail is hugely overbuilt, we could close 1/2 our malls tomorrow and we'd still have more than enough retail capacity. The so called service industry is due for a sustained period of employment reduction like manufacturing was in previous decades.I am hoping that we never will reach 500 million as there are indications that immigration into the US has slowed down in pace with our economy. The real winners in 2050 are going to be countries like Canada and Australia not overpopulated giants.
2050年的真实写照。
真正的情况在2050年不是中国经济在什么状态，而是美国能不能为5亿美国人提供有意义的经济机会….我们已经被2500万人的工作问题弄的焦头烂额了。。。美国零售商店太多了，我们明天让一半的大市场关门，还是有足够的零售店，称之为“服务业”今天也遇到了制造业后期同样的问题，对工人需求量下降。我殷切期望我们的人口千万别到5亿，因为美国的经济增长速度跟它的移入民数量是成反比的。我想2050年，世界经济的真正赢家应该是像加拿大，澳大利亚之类的国家，人口稀少，领土宽广。
TOMHE
4:40 AM ET
Bad extrapolation
The high GDP growth rate which China has been enjoying so far comes from rather heavy investment. Some statisitcs shows that about 40% of China growth is due to investment in the infrastructure. Those investment items are good, for their own sake. But investment can not drive the growth of GDP in a linear approach. The economic law of diminish of rutrun will hit China as soon as right now. Most Chinese do not want rule the world; they respect western people, and your produces. Do not let hatred fester.
这篇分析是一个很差劲的推断。中国GDP高速增长的原因在于大手笔的投资。有数据表明中国GDP 40%的增长是由建设基础设施带动的。这些投资有利于中国本国国民。但是，投资并不能一直拉动GDP的增长。报酬递减法则已经开始冲击中国经济。
大部分中国人并没有要统治世界的欲望；他们尊重西方人，西方人的产品。没有必要再让仇恨中国的情绪蔓延。。。
FREETRADER
12:15 AM ET
Excellent Summary
Agree with everything you have written. If China plays its cards right, it is destined for semi-prosperous middle-income territory. Unfotunately, it is possible that it won't even get there -- the risk of overreaching is high, and a government that doesn't trust its own people isn't likely to liberalize enough to allow the consumers to drive the economy -- as they eventually must. A large, relatively poor, unhappy and aggressive China is the real concern 20-30 years from now.
I am sure that some people will read this and conclude that the FP comments are populated by a bunch of China-bashers. Nothing could be further from the truth. I currently live in China and wish the Chinese nothing but the best. But, repeating mindless dreams about China's eventual world economic dominance, while perhaps pleasing to the ears of some Chinese, is no subsstitute for a consideration of hard economic realisties.
完全同意楼上说法。。如果中国走一条正确的道路，它过些年必定会成为中等发达国家。遗憾的是，它也可能永远都达不到。。因为它们对某些事态反应过于敏感，中国政府不相信自己的人民，不愿意让他们成为中国经济的主导，虽然最终这是不可避免的。。。在将来的二三十年，中国真正的问题是一个大国却相对贫穷，过于追求经济发展，人民幸福感不足。我确信有些人读到这儿会说《外交政策》的评论是攻击中国的人写的。。但是没有什么能比事实更有说服力了。我现在就住在中国，只是希望中国人能过的更好。但是一再地鼓吹中国最终会成为世界经济最强国的白日梦可能会让一些愿意听人说中国好的人心情愉快，这却与中国艰难的经济发展现实有很大出入。
TYJS
5:21 PM ET
Mr. FREETRADER, where do you live in China?
It is not suprising for someone without intimate knowledge about China to say in that country "There is no social safety net, not even in healthcare. There is no consumer culture. There is no higher education. There is no sustainable niche in the world economy. In short, basically every structure that china would need to exist as a first world economy does not exist". The funny thing is, when someone who claims to be a resident in that country, he "can't agree more" to every word in that statement. Basher or not is not a problem. It could be totally justified if the situation there deserves to be bashed. But is the situation there really like that? We may skip the issue of social safety nework and all because you hate any vagueness in defination, but as a concurrent resident in China, have you ever seen any sign of exisitense of higher education at all? Where do you live in China?
楼上滴。。你到底住中国哪儿呀？？
“中国完全没有社会安全感，更别说医保了”，每次听到对中国没有丝毫了解的人这样说都不觉得奇怪，“中国没有消费文化，没有高等教育，在世界经济市场中不占有持续性利基。简而言之，就是说中国没有任何一个成为世界最强经济体的基础”，有意思的是，现在连住在中国的人都非常同意上述说法了。。。。攻击或者不是攻击中国并不是一个问题。问题在于事实是否真是如此？？我们姑且跳过中国社会安不安全的问题，可能你认为这是个太模糊的概念，但是作为正在中国居住的人，你是不是也从来没看见中国有大学呀？？你到底住中国哪儿啊。。。。
LONG
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4:11 PM ET
I just hope China won't become super power
I'm hoping China will never become a superpower because it will be a nightmare for the whole world. I'm sure, if it becomes number country, China will make the world a worse place because it will go to wars and engulf many many countries like they did in the past; the most recent one is Tibet. The next victim will be Vietnam (China is already invading Vietnamese east sea, or South China Sea), then other Southeast asian countries; I'm sure they will have confrontation with Japan and India, their traditional rivals.
就不想让中国成世界霸主。
我可一点儿都不想让中国成为世界霸主，那对全世界来说都是噩梦。我确信，要是中国成了数一数二的国家，那它会让世界变得更加糟糕，因为中国会像历史上一样，把世界带入战争时，吞并很多国家。。。下一个受害者应该就是越南，然后就是其它的东南亚国家；他们会跟它的传统对手日本，印度真正开战。
INFERNALDISASTER
3:57 PM ET
Absurd.....
This is probably the most aburd prediction I've read, what is being suggested is economically impossible unless we are getting our resources from space at that point.
It would be impossible for China to even achieve $50 trillion.....
.....but why say more, clearly the writer of this article is more into hyping up China rather than writing about the truth.
荒谬。。。
这可能是我读过的最荒谬的一篇文章了。。。中国经济不可能发展那么快，除非我们从宇宙里获得资源。
我觉得中国连到50万亿都到不了。。。
…但这作者干嘛写这么多啊。。。很明显，这位只是想鼓吹刺激中国，没讲述事实的意思。。
DAVIDJWBAILEY
12:34 PM ET
Agree. It is absurd
Even in junior school we teach children the foolishness of extrapolating from a small base. This idiotic puff piece ignores all the negative factors and simply fails to mention any limiting factors or approaching discontinuities. I am staggered that this passed even a low level sub-editorial, let alone editorial review.
Perhaps this is really some sort of intellectual 'internet Trolling', designed to make us angry and say silly things?
Anyway, if I was the editor, I would send the writer back to re-write this after they have properly considered these factors:
1 - food growth v population growth
2 - natural resources (specifically bearing in mind China's August 2009 actions in respect of rare earth metals and lithium)
3 - water limitations
4 - environmental degradation (and the positive feedback of that on 1, 2 and 3 above)
5 - international competition
6 - market factors
7 - access to capital (and capitalist institutions to support growth)
8 - the huge regional political tensions building up under the surface, one's that may well tear China into pieces
9 - international political backlash (for instance over Chinese land and resource grabs in Africa)
10- simple civil discontent
This article would be rated 2 / 10, and only gets 2 for starting the discussion of an important area.
同意，这种说法是很荒谬。。我们在小学里就学过不能以偏概全。。。这个傻子好像看不到所有会影响经济发展的因素。我很惊讶这种文章都会发表。。
可能这就是什么故意刺激我们的？？为了让我们（因为中国的发达）愤怒，说一些傻话的？
不管怎么说，要是我是那编辑的话，肯定让他把文章拿回去，把下列因素考虑好了，再重写写。。
1．食物需求增长和人口增长
2．自然资源
3．水资源短缺
4．环境退化
5．国际竞争
6．市场因素
7．获取资本
8．大范围地区局势紧张问题也可能会撕碎中国
9．国际政治对立
10.国内人们的不满情绪
M WILK
1:25 PM ET
Overly simplistic analysis like this are very misleading
This article reminds me very much of the kind of analysis which not to long ago predicted that Japan would now be the world's dominate economic power. Did you take into account that China's population is also aging? I believe that that by 2040 the Chinese population won't be that much younger than Europe's. I'm tired of the assumption that population growth is always an economic plus and that higher GDP makes the US or China superior to Europe or anyone else. Both India and China are going to struggle in the coming years to find enough resources to provide for billions of people. Its going to be a lot easier for Europe to maintain a reasonable standard of living. I don't understand why economists still don't seem to recognize such obvious physical limits. The total amounts of fossil fuel, farmland and fresh water and many other critical resources are fixed and will seriously impact China and India's potential for economic growth. GDP measures spending which does not reflect quality of life once basic needs are met. If I buy a giant SUV so I can drive 1/2 mile to buy a quart of milk I spend a lot more than those who use public transit or walk. Therefore, my contribution to the GDP is higher however, I would guess that most Europeans and NYC residents would take issue with my living standard being better.
这种过于笼统的分析有非常强的误导性。这篇文章让我想起不久前有一篇类似的分析，预测日本现在应该是世界经济最强国。。。。你难道（只看到中国人口众多）不把中国老龄化的问题考虑进去么？我确信到2040年中国人口不会比欧洲人年轻多少的。我已经听烦了人们说人口增长是推动经济增长的强心针，美国或者中国的GDP会因为人口的增多而强于欧洲或者其他国家的设想。过些年，中国和印度都得寻求足够的资源来满足国家人口的需要。但对于欧洲各国来说，达到合理的资源使用标准很容易。我一直都不明白为什么经济学家们都看不到如此现实固有的资源所带来的局限性。矿石燃料资源，耕地资源，淡水资源还有其他许多不可再生资源都会极大地影响中国或者印度经济增长潜力。GDP中消费部分的数据只能反映出基本需求得到满足，并不能反映出生活质量。假如我驾驶一辆SUV半公里就为了买一夸脱牛奶，那我所得牛奶花费要比坐公交或者步行的人多的多，但因为此我就为GDP的增高做出了贡献。我想大部分的欧洲人和纽约市民更关心自己的生活是不是变的更好（而不是简单的GDP数据）。
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6:27 AM ET
China
The Chinese have done well for themselves in Taiwan, Singapore, Macau, Hong Kong, and... in North America, Africa, Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia...etc.
The People's Republic of China, as of 2010, in nominal value, is the world's second largest economy, the world's largest exporter, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is the world's largest bank by market capitalisation.
30 years of hard work.
Keep it up, China!
无论在台湾，新加坡，澳门，香港，甚至于北美，非洲，澳洲，大马，印尼等好多国家和地区中国大陆的人都非常优秀。
至于中国这个国家，就拿2010年举例来说，中国成为了世界上第二大经济体，世界最大出口国，中国工商银行总市值世界排名第一。
这些都是30年努力的结果。
中国，继续加油！！
ANDY YEE 9:42 AM ET
Stop the hype
When you predict on such a long timeframe, it is precisely when political factors become important (also 'isn't the sort of thing economists can base predictions on'). This is grossed over in one paragraph. And westerners conveniently forget (or are ignorant of) that when China was the number one economy in the world for 18 out of the last 20 centuries, it was plagued by intervals of chaos between dynasties.
别天花乱坠的鼓吹了。。。
既然你要预测多年以后的中国经济，就得把中国的政治因素考虑进去（这也是经济学家不能把握的部分）。西方人士经常忘记或者忽略了当中国在过去2000年中有1800年都是全球最强大的经济体时，欧洲还一直处于纷飞战火之中。。。。
ARCHIE BLUMENBAUM
9:03 AM ET
words of wisdom
glad i saw a ray of sanity here. yeah, i do hope the era of these narrow-minded economists, that worship the of "growth of GDP" so devoutly that they forgot that GDP is supposed to serve the people, and not vice versa. Quality of life and that elusive concept of "personal happiness" is the key issue. Not much of that here in China.
至理名言
嗯。。。真开心。。还能在这儿看到有头脑的人，是。。我非常希望这时代那些没啥脑子，就知道推崇GDP的经济学家们，千万不要忘记：GDP是为人们服务的，反之亦然。“生活质量”和“个人幸福指数”才是人们真正关心的问题。虽然中国人两者都不怎么样。
BALKAN_FALCON
5:54 PM ET
How did this guy get a Nobel prize?
I agree that is highly likely that China will surpass both US and EU in GDP.
But to argue that Chinese GDP will be over 35 times what it is today is ludicrous. He assumes constant growth of 13% for 30 years straight. So that China will grow substantially faster than it is growing today. All this is supposed to happen as growth moves form extensive (peasants moving to cities) to intensive growth (increasing productivity of workers who are already working in industries). it also assumes that the world's current resource and energy base can support this kind of growth
This is way too simplistic, even for an economist...
这位大叔是怎么得到诺贝尔经济学奖的？？（本文作者罗伯特·福格尔以他在计量经济史方面出色的工作荣获了1993年诺贝尔经济学奖。）
我非常同意中国会在GDP上轻易地超过美国和日本，但说中国GDP会是现在35倍的说法很荒谬。他的假设需要中国连续30年GDP增长保持13%，中国的发展要比现在更加快速，需要中国经济从粗放型转为集约型，并且要求世界现有资源和能源基地能满足中国经济增长需要。
他的这种分析对于一个经济学家来说实在是太笼统了。
BOOKFISHER
11:30 PM ET
I loved how...
...he failed to not explain how China will avoid the same demographic problems, he described Europe haves, I mean one child policy and deficits of women, must show its negative effects sometime, the pre one child generation cant work forever.
Besides if sex for fun and strolls along the seaside or riverside are bad, then Chicago must be a boring place to live
….他的失败之处就在于只讨论了欧洲的人口问题，却没意识到中国也有相同的问题存在，我指的是“一个家庭只生一个孩子”的政策，在一定时候一定会显现出其负面影响，因为只有一个孩子那一辈以前的孩子们不可能一直工作下去。
…并且，如果认为在海岸或者河边享受性是种罪恶的话，那我在芝加哥住着还有什么意思啊…
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EXTRDOC
12:16 AM ET
yes..a lot missing from this analysis
楼上说的太对了。。这篇分析漏洞百出。。。
M WILK
11:13 AM ET
The Real Issue in 2050
The real issue, at least for the USA, will not be the state of China's economy but will our economy be able to provide meaningful economic opportunity for 500 million? We are already having trouble finding meaningful employment for 1/2 that number. Retail is hugely overbuilt, we could close 1/2 our malls tomorrow and we'd still have more than enough retail capacity. The so called service industry is due for a sustained period of employment reduction like manufacturing was in previous decades.I am hoping that we never will reach 500 million as there are indications that immigration into the US has slowed down in pace with our economy. The real winners in 2050 are going to be countries like Canada and Australia not overpopulated giants.
2050年的真实写照。
真正的情况在2050年不是中国经济在什么状态，而是美国能不能为5亿美国人提供有意义的经济机会….我们已经被2500万人的工作问题弄的焦头烂额了。。。美国零售商店太多了，我们明天让一半的大市场关门，还是有足够的零售店，称之为“服务业”今天也遇到了制造业后期同样的问题，对工人需求量下降。我殷切期望我们的人口千万别到5亿，因为美国的经济增长速度跟它的移入民数量是成反比的。我想2050年，世界经济的真正赢家应该是像加拿大，澳大利亚之类的国家，人口稀少，领土宽广。
TOMHE
4:40 AM ET
Bad extrapolation
The high GDP growth rate which China has been enjoying so far comes from rather heavy investment. Some statisitcs shows that about 40% of China growth is due to investment in the infrastructure. Those investment items are good, for their own sake. But investment can not drive the growth of GDP in a linear approach. The economic law of diminish of rutrun will hit China as soon as right now. Most Chinese do not want rule the world; they respect western people, and your produces. Do not let hatred fester.
这篇分析是一个很差劲的推断。中国GDP高速增长的原因在于大手笔的投资。有数据表明中国GDP 40%的增长是由建设基础设施带动的。这些投资有利于中国本国国民。但是，投资并不能一直拉动GDP的增长。报酬递减法则已经开始冲击中国经济。
大部分中国人并没有要统治世界的欲望；他们尊重西方人，西方人的产品。没有必要再让仇恨中国的情绪蔓延。。。
FREETRADER
12:15 AM ET
Excellent Summary
Agree with everything you have written. If China plays its cards right, it is destined for semi-prosperous middle-income territory. Unfotunately, it is possible that it won't even get there -- the risk of overreaching is high, and a government that doesn't trust its own people isn't likely to liberalize enough to allow the consumers to drive the economy -- as they eventually must. A large, relatively poor, unhappy and aggressive China is the real concern 20-30 years from now.
I am sure that some people will read this and conclude that the FP comments are populated by a bunch of China-bashers. Nothing could be further from the truth. I currently live in China and wish the Chinese nothing but the best. But, repeating mindless dreams about China's eventual world economic dominance, while perhaps pleasing to the ears of some Chinese, is no subsstitute for a consideration of hard economic realisties.
完全同意楼上说法。。如果中国走一条正确的道路，它过些年必定会成为中等发达国家。遗憾的是，它也可能永远都达不到。。因为它们对某些事态反应过于敏感，中国政府不相信自己的人民，不愿意让他们成为中国经济的主导，虽然最终这是不可避免的。。。在将来的二三十年，中国真正的问题是一个大国却相对贫穷，过于追求经济发展，人民幸福感不足。我确信有些人读到这儿会说《外交政策》的评论是攻击中国的人写的。。但是没有什么能比事实更有说服力了。我现在就住在中国，只是希望中国人能过的更好。但是一再地鼓吹中国最终会成为世界经济最强国的白日梦可能会让一些愿意听人说中国好的人心情愉快，这却与中国艰难的经济发展现实有很大出入。
TYJS
5:21 PM ET
Mr. FREETRADER, where do you live in China?
It is not suprising for someone without intimate knowledge about China to say in that country "There is no social safety net, not even in healthcare. There is no consumer culture. There is no higher education. There is no sustainable niche in the world economy. In short, basically every structure that china would need to exist as a first world economy does not exist". The funny thing is, when someone who claims to be a resident in that country, he "can't agree more" to every word in that statement. Basher or not is not a problem. It could be totally justified if the situation there deserves to be bashed. But is the situation there really like that? We may skip the issue of social safety nework and all because you hate any vagueness in defination, but as a concurrent resident in China, have you ever seen any sign of exisitense of higher education at all? Where do you live in China?
楼上滴。。你到底住中国哪儿呀？？
“中国完全没有社会安全感，更别说医保了”，每次听到对中国没有丝毫了解的人这样说都不觉得奇怪，“中国没有消费文化，没有高等教育，在世界经济市场中不占有持续性利基。简而言之，就是说中国没有任何一个成为世界最强经济体的基础”，有意思的是，现在连住在中国的人都非常同意上述说法了。。。。攻击或者不是攻击中国并不是一个问题。问题在于事实是否真是如此？？我们姑且跳过中国社会安不安全的问题，可能你认为这是个太模糊的概念，但是作为正在中国居住的人，你是不是也从来没看见中国有大学呀？？你到底住中国哪儿啊。。。。
LONG
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4:11 PM ET
I just hope China won't become super power
I'm hoping China will never become a superpower because it will be a nightmare for the whole world. I'm sure, if it becomes number country, China will make the world a worse place because it will go to wars and engulf many many countries like they did in the past; the most recent one is Tibet. The next victim will be Vietnam (China is already invading Vietnamese east sea, or South China Sea), then other Southeast asian countries; I'm sure they will have confrontation with Japan and India, their traditional rivals.
就不想让中国成世界霸主。
我可一点儿都不想让中国成为世界霸主，那对全世界来说都是噩梦。我确信，要是中国成了数一数二的国家，那它会让世界变得更加糟糕，因为中国会像历史上一样，把世界带入战争时，吞并很多国家。。。下一个受害者应该就是越南，然后就是其它的东南亚国家；他们会跟它的传统对手日本，印度真正开战。
INFERNALDISASTER
3:57 PM ET
Absurd.....
This is probably the most aburd prediction I've read, what is being suggested is economically impossible unless we are getting our resources from space at that point.
It would be impossible for China to even achieve $50 trillion.....
.....but why say more, clearly the writer of this article is more into hyping up China rather than writing about the truth.
荒谬。。。
这可能是我读过的最荒谬的一篇文章了。。。中国经济不可能发展那么快，除非我们从宇宙里获得资源。
我觉得中国连到50万亿都到不了。。。
…但这作者干嘛写这么多啊。。。很明显，这位只是想鼓吹刺激中国，没讲述事实的意思。。
DAVIDJWBAILEY
12:34 PM ET
Agree. It is absurd
Even in junior school we teach children the foolishness of extrapolating from a small base. This idiotic puff piece ignores all the negative factors and simply fails to mention any limiting factors or approaching discontinuities. I am staggered that this passed even a low level sub-editorial, let alone editorial review.
Perhaps this is really some sort of intellectual 'internet Trolling', designed to make us angry and say silly things?
Anyway, if I was the editor, I would send the writer back to re-write this after they have properly considered these factors:
1 - food growth v population growth
2 - natural resources (specifically bearing in mind China's August 2009 actions in respect of rare earth metals and lithium)
3 - water limitations
4 - environmental degradation (and the positive feedback of that on 1, 2 and 3 above)
5 - international competition
6 - market factors
7 - access to capital (and capitalist institutions to support growth)
8 - the huge regional political tensions building up under the surface, one's that may well tear China into pieces
9 - international political backlash (for instance over Chinese land and resource grabs in Africa)
10- simple civil discontent
This article would be rated 2 / 10, and only gets 2 for starting the discussion of an important area.
同意，这种说法是很荒谬。。我们在小学里就学过不能以偏概全。。。这个傻子好像看不到所有会影响经济发展的因素。我很惊讶这种文章都会发表。。
可能这就是什么故意刺激我们的？？为了让我们（因为中国的发达）愤怒，说一些傻话的？
不管怎么说，要是我是那编辑的话，肯定让他把文章拿回去，把下列因素考虑好了，再重写写。。
1．食物需求增长和人口增长
2．自然资源
3．水资源短缺
4．环境退化
5．国际竞争
6．市场因素
7．获取资本
8．大范围地区局势紧张问题也可能会撕碎中国
9．国际政治对立
10.国内人们的不满情绪
拜托~那时候五美刀等于现在一美刀~
老外的反映都是：我看不见，看见了也不是真的，是真的也不是正规渠道来的，你们还有其他问题，你们不免煮，！@#￥%……&*
随他们去吧，不指望丫们干嘛
随他们去吧，不指望丫们干嘛
很可能的事情，未来我们谁也无法预知
我只想知道2040年的时候1美元能买什么东西？
我只相信一点，只有劳动才是财富的唯一且永恒的源泉，而中国人是全世界最勤劳的
这tm也太tmhkc了吧
失血过多 头晕
失血过多 头晕有可能的,前提是美元失去世界主要流通货币地位,大规模贬值乃至于崩盘.美元贬值5倍以上,乃至于10倍.
中国经济增长，人民币升职，通货膨胀，美元贬值，30年后的123万亿美元可能真不算什么大数
我很想知道这评论都是谁写的
我很想知道这评论都是谁写的
mask_CD_2010 发表于 2011-4-7 10:35 ![]()
参考一日元吧
参考一日元吧
我喜欢那些人的调调。很有日本雅虎上头的评价水平。
就让他们都在无知中死去吧
就让他们都在无知中死去吧
2040年123Y美刀这个数字有太夸张了吧
123万亿，吓死我了，现在全世界才多少？
还好，如果不出意外，我有幸能活到那个时候，偶也！
还好，如果不出意外，我有幸能活到那个时候，偶也！
现在我国狗的屁以人民币计是395000亿，假设以7%的速度增长五年6%五年4%二十年，年通货膨胀率是2%,那四十年后是395000*1.07^5*1.06^5*1.04^20*1.02^30=2942505,到那时人民币对美元大概2~3:1，已经很多了
这个数字完全有可能，因为要考虑美元贬值的因素。中国成为世界头号强国不过是恢复了本来的秩序。
呵呵，走自己的路吧。。。
完全同意楼上说法。。如果中国走一条正确的道路，它过些年必定会成为中等发达国家。遗憾的是，它也可能永远都达不到。。因为它们对某些事态反应过于敏感，中国政府不相信自己的人民，不愿意让他们成为中国经济的主导，虽然最终这是不可避免的。。。在将来的二三十年，中国真正的问题是一个大国却相对贫穷，过于追求经济发展，人民幸福感不足。我确信有些人读到这儿会说《外交政策》的评论是攻击中国的人写的。。但是没有什么能比事实更有说服力了。我现在就住在中国，只是希望中国人能过的更好。但是一再地鼓吹中国最终会成为世界经济最强国的白日梦可能会让一些愿意听人说中国好的人心情愉快，这却与中国艰难的经济发展现实有很大出入。
这段很好
这段很好
30年前一美元合现在多少
Mcnatsumi 发表于 2011-4-9 00:21 ![]()
20左右
20左右
30年后还有美元这个货币存在吗？
fred14 发表于 2011-4-9 02:26 ![]()
这个问题问得有水平
这个问题问得有水平
和我等有什么关系