超级军网悲愤啊! ZT邱贞玮《中国民用飞机制造业终于把自己送上了 ...
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中国民用飞机制造业终于把自己送上了绝路
上一篇 / 下一篇 2008-07-17 14:20:56 / 个人分类：军政评论
查看( 18940 ) / 评论( 184 ) / 评分( 104 / 27 )
俄罗斯联合航空制造公司总裁费多罗夫14号说，2009年将确定同中国联合研制MS-21干线客机的可能性，两国工作组近期将就成立合资企业进行会谈；但目前谈论实施项目还为时尚早，因为中国类似飞机的技术指标和建造期限同MS-21不同。
看了这个消息，心里一边是拔凉拔凉的，悲哀中国民机制造业的不争气；一边却是感觉那群人活该，让他们光捞钱不干活，这下彻底没他们事了。
中国航空制造业这几年来一直在吆喝两个大项目，即军用的“大运”和民用的“大客”这两个大型运输机，其中“大客”就是载客150人以上的大型干线客机。中航两大集团把大客项目看的尤其重要，因为民用飞机产量大油水足，能带来的利润远远超过订货量有限的大型军用运输机项目。
这次俄罗斯MS-21客机的定位与民航“大客”的定位接近，都是载客150-200人之间的中程干线客机；而我国不可能同时上2个定位相同的客机项目，因此一旦联合研制确定下来，那么“大客”项目肯定与它合二为一，放弃自己独立研制的努力。
唉，中国民机一次难得的发展良机，我们只能与他人分享。
但失落归失落，我绝不会因此指责国务院或航空集团中有人卖国当买办。我相信国务院考虑联合研制的最大原因就是中国民航工业的不争气，他们的太多无能、对他们的太多失望才是导致这一结果的根本原因。
上海飞机公司的一群人近年来不断鼓吹运-10的成绩，甚至声称运-10已经完全符合商业运作的要求，其下马是中国航空制造业的最大损失。但他们死活不敢说的是，运-10西藏飞行后机体大梁变形已经无法再飞，机体结构全都是小部件拼凑，维护修理费用高到不可能实现商业化，只能当作技术验证机；更不要说正是这些人在航空部没有下命令的情况下就拆掉飞机毁弃图纸，现在却又把帽子扣在航空部头上。
航空部当年还想与空中客车公司合作生产A-310客机，并承诺出资几亿人民币；结果空客公司一连等了3年，国内不要说出钱，就连签一个出资意向书都不肯，愣是逼得法国人在股东大会前取消了合同。合同取消后第五天，国内的投资协议批准了，人家也不搭理你了。
今年初以来大力鼓吹的ARJ-21“翔凤”客机号称是国内自主研制的，但实际上就是买的美国麦道公司DC-9客机的图纸仿制的，自己独立研制了油漆图案还差不多。而且就这么一个1968年开始使用的老飞机，国内还前后花钱买了2次图纸，并为此找了个理由称“我们不会缩短机身长度”，丫这时候就不说自己独立研制了。
参加ARJ-21“翔凤”客机的航空系统人士只会内斗，几年内换了多任总经理与总设计师。你说这群人就是想挣钱也得把活干出来啊，可他根本不干活光想着捞钱，这能不让人生气吗。
这次中国商用飞机有限责任公司成立也能看出来，国家对航空业这群人完全看透不抱希望了，商飞集团5大领导中有3个是从航天系统调入的。以董事长兼党委书记张庆伟为例，他先后任航天部一院921工程运载火箭副总设计师、中国航天科技集团公司总经理、国防科学技术工业委员会主任，是个很明显的航天人。要是中国民机业稍微有点希望，国家也不至于这么明显的排斥他们。
这人一旦臭了名声，再想让别人相信就难了。
当年“仿制”ARJ-21的时候俄国人就提议两国合作，不要再去折腾50年前的老东西，两国一起研制新客机，到时候俄国向我们提供全套技术和生产资料。结果当年我们没与毛子合作，现在ARJ-21客机07年12月中首架下线已经有8个月，到现在还死活不敢试飞；俄国的苏霍伊-100客机已经试飞成功，我们想后悔都找不着地方了。
ARJ-21好歹是个仿制品，上飞和640厂有资料可抄都搞成这样。“大客”可是要从无到有自己研制出来的，你看了这群人的表现还敢相信他们吗？你还敢把几百亿资金交给这群人吗？你还敢把自己的希望寄托在他们身上吗？
所以说这次与俄国人的合作也是不得已而为之，毛子的技术虽然比欧美要差，但比我们还是要高出很多，尤其是不会出这种令人哭笑不得的低级错误；再一个是与毛子合作我们能拿到全套技术和生产资料，并全程学习如何设计一架大型飞机，这是与欧美合作所得不到的。
中国航空界的一群人已经把自己送上了绝路，但愿新进的人吸取教训不要染上业内的坏习气，从这次与毛子的合作中好好学些东西，日后也好为自己找份工作。
希望以后我们提起中国大飞机，不要是和中国足球一起。中国民用飞机制造业终于把自己送上了绝路
上一篇 / 下一篇 2008-07-17 14:20:56 / 个人分类：军政评论
查看( 18940 ) / 评论( 184 ) / 评分( 104 / 27 )
俄罗斯联合航空制造公司总裁费多罗夫14号说，2009年将确定同中国联合研制MS-21干线客机的可能性，两国工作组近期将就成立合资企业进行会谈；但目前谈论实施项目还为时尚早，因为中国类似飞机的技术指标和建造期限同MS-21不同。
看了这个消息，心里一边是拔凉拔凉的，悲哀中国民机制造业的不争气；一边却是感觉那群人活该，让他们光捞钱不干活，这下彻底没他们事了。
中国航空制造业这几年来一直在吆喝两个大项目，即军用的“大运”和民用的“大客”这两个大型运输机，其中“大客”就是载客150人以上的大型干线客机。中航两大集团把大客项目看的尤其重要，因为民用飞机产量大油水足，能带来的利润远远超过订货量有限的大型军用运输机项目。
这次俄罗斯MS-21客机的定位与民航“大客”的定位接近，都是载客150-200人之间的中程干线客机；而我国不可能同时上2个定位相同的客机项目，因此一旦联合研制确定下来，那么“大客”项目肯定与它合二为一，放弃自己独立研制的努力。
唉，中国民机一次难得的发展良机，我们只能与他人分享。
但失落归失落，我绝不会因此指责国务院或航空集团中有人卖国当买办。我相信国务院考虑联合研制的最大原因就是中国民航工业的不争气，他们的太多无能、对他们的太多失望才是导致这一结果的根本原因。
上海飞机公司的一群人近年来不断鼓吹运-10的成绩，甚至声称运-10已经完全符合商业运作的要求，其下马是中国航空制造业的最大损失。但他们死活不敢说的是，运-10西藏飞行后机体大梁变形已经无法再飞，机体结构全都是小部件拼凑，维护修理费用高到不可能实现商业化，只能当作技术验证机；更不要说正是这些人在航空部没有下命令的情况下就拆掉飞机毁弃图纸，现在却又把帽子扣在航空部头上。
航空部当年还想与空中客车公司合作生产A-310客机，并承诺出资几亿人民币；结果空客公司一连等了3年，国内不要说出钱，就连签一个出资意向书都不肯，愣是逼得法国人在股东大会前取消了合同。合同取消后第五天，国内的投资协议批准了，人家也不搭理你了。
今年初以来大力鼓吹的ARJ-21“翔凤”客机号称是国内自主研制的，但实际上就是买的美国麦道公司DC-9客机的图纸仿制的，自己独立研制了油漆图案还差不多。而且就这么一个1968年开始使用的老飞机，国内还前后花钱买了2次图纸，并为此找了个理由称“我们不会缩短机身长度”，丫这时候就不说自己独立研制了。
参加ARJ-21“翔凤”客机的航空系统人士只会内斗，几年内换了多任总经理与总设计师。你说这群人就是想挣钱也得把活干出来啊，可他根本不干活光想着捞钱，这能不让人生气吗。
这次中国商用飞机有限责任公司成立也能看出来，国家对航空业这群人完全看透不抱希望了，商飞集团5大领导中有3个是从航天系统调入的。以董事长兼党委书记张庆伟为例，他先后任航天部一院921工程运载火箭副总设计师、中国航天科技集团公司总经理、国防科学技术工业委员会主任，是个很明显的航天人。要是中国民机业稍微有点希望，国家也不至于这么明显的排斥他们。
这人一旦臭了名声，再想让别人相信就难了。
当年“仿制”ARJ-21的时候俄国人就提议两国合作，不要再去折腾50年前的老东西，两国一起研制新客机，到时候俄国向我们提供全套技术和生产资料。结果当年我们没与毛子合作，现在ARJ-21客机07年12月中首架下线已经有8个月，到现在还死活不敢试飞；俄国的苏霍伊-100客机已经试飞成功，我们想后悔都找不着地方了。
ARJ-21好歹是个仿制品，上飞和640厂有资料可抄都搞成这样。“大客”可是要从无到有自己研制出来的，你看了这群人的表现还敢相信他们吗？你还敢把几百亿资金交给这群人吗？你还敢把自己的希望寄托在他们身上吗？
所以说这次与俄国人的合作也是不得已而为之，毛子的技术虽然比欧美要差，但比我们还是要高出很多，尤其是不会出这种令人哭笑不得的低级错误；再一个是与毛子合作我们能拿到全套技术和生产资料，并全程学习如何设计一架大型飞机，这是与欧美合作所得不到的。
中国航空界的一群人已经把自己送上了绝路，但愿新进的人吸取教训不要染上业内的坏习气，从这次与毛子的合作中好好学些东西，日后也好为自己找份工作。
希望以后我们提起中国大飞机，不要是和中国足球一起。
上一篇 / 下一篇 2008-07-17 14:20:56 / 个人分类：军政评论
查看( 18940 ) / 评论( 184 ) / 评分( 104 / 27 )
俄罗斯联合航空制造公司总裁费多罗夫14号说，2009年将确定同中国联合研制MS-21干线客机的可能性，两国工作组近期将就成立合资企业进行会谈；但目前谈论实施项目还为时尚早，因为中国类似飞机的技术指标和建造期限同MS-21不同。
看了这个消息，心里一边是拔凉拔凉的，悲哀中国民机制造业的不争气；一边却是感觉那群人活该，让他们光捞钱不干活，这下彻底没他们事了。
中国航空制造业这几年来一直在吆喝两个大项目，即军用的“大运”和民用的“大客”这两个大型运输机，其中“大客”就是载客150人以上的大型干线客机。中航两大集团把大客项目看的尤其重要，因为民用飞机产量大油水足，能带来的利润远远超过订货量有限的大型军用运输机项目。
这次俄罗斯MS-21客机的定位与民航“大客”的定位接近，都是载客150-200人之间的中程干线客机；而我国不可能同时上2个定位相同的客机项目，因此一旦联合研制确定下来，那么“大客”项目肯定与它合二为一，放弃自己独立研制的努力。
唉，中国民机一次难得的发展良机，我们只能与他人分享。
但失落归失落，我绝不会因此指责国务院或航空集团中有人卖国当买办。我相信国务院考虑联合研制的最大原因就是中国民航工业的不争气，他们的太多无能、对他们的太多失望才是导致这一结果的根本原因。
上海飞机公司的一群人近年来不断鼓吹运-10的成绩，甚至声称运-10已经完全符合商业运作的要求，其下马是中国航空制造业的最大损失。但他们死活不敢说的是，运-10西藏飞行后机体大梁变形已经无法再飞，机体结构全都是小部件拼凑，维护修理费用高到不可能实现商业化，只能当作技术验证机；更不要说正是这些人在航空部没有下命令的情况下就拆掉飞机毁弃图纸，现在却又把帽子扣在航空部头上。
航空部当年还想与空中客车公司合作生产A-310客机，并承诺出资几亿人民币；结果空客公司一连等了3年，国内不要说出钱，就连签一个出资意向书都不肯，愣是逼得法国人在股东大会前取消了合同。合同取消后第五天，国内的投资协议批准了，人家也不搭理你了。
今年初以来大力鼓吹的ARJ-21“翔凤”客机号称是国内自主研制的，但实际上就是买的美国麦道公司DC-9客机的图纸仿制的，自己独立研制了油漆图案还差不多。而且就这么一个1968年开始使用的老飞机，国内还前后花钱买了2次图纸，并为此找了个理由称“我们不会缩短机身长度”，丫这时候就不说自己独立研制了。
参加ARJ-21“翔凤”客机的航空系统人士只会内斗，几年内换了多任总经理与总设计师。你说这群人就是想挣钱也得把活干出来啊，可他根本不干活光想着捞钱，这能不让人生气吗。
这次中国商用飞机有限责任公司成立也能看出来，国家对航空业这群人完全看透不抱希望了，商飞集团5大领导中有3个是从航天系统调入的。以董事长兼党委书记张庆伟为例，他先后任航天部一院921工程运载火箭副总设计师、中国航天科技集团公司总经理、国防科学技术工业委员会主任，是个很明显的航天人。要是中国民机业稍微有点希望，国家也不至于这么明显的排斥他们。
这人一旦臭了名声，再想让别人相信就难了。
当年“仿制”ARJ-21的时候俄国人就提议两国合作，不要再去折腾50年前的老东西，两国一起研制新客机，到时候俄国向我们提供全套技术和生产资料。结果当年我们没与毛子合作，现在ARJ-21客机07年12月中首架下线已经有8个月，到现在还死活不敢试飞；俄国的苏霍伊-100客机已经试飞成功，我们想后悔都找不着地方了。
ARJ-21好歹是个仿制品，上飞和640厂有资料可抄都搞成这样。“大客”可是要从无到有自己研制出来的，你看了这群人的表现还敢相信他们吗？你还敢把几百亿资金交给这群人吗？你还敢把自己的希望寄托在他们身上吗？
所以说这次与俄国人的合作也是不得已而为之，毛子的技术虽然比欧美要差，但比我们还是要高出很多，尤其是不会出这种令人哭笑不得的低级错误；再一个是与毛子合作我们能拿到全套技术和生产资料，并全程学习如何设计一架大型飞机，这是与欧美合作所得不到的。
中国航空界的一群人已经把自己送上了绝路，但愿新进的人吸取教训不要染上业内的坏习气，从这次与毛子的合作中好好学些东西，日后也好为自己找份工作。
希望以后我们提起中国大飞机，不要是和中国足球一起。中国民用飞机制造业终于把自己送上了绝路
上一篇 / 下一篇 2008-07-17 14:20:56 / 个人分类：军政评论
查看( 18940 ) / 评论( 184 ) / 评分( 104 / 27 )
俄罗斯联合航空制造公司总裁费多罗夫14号说，2009年将确定同中国联合研制MS-21干线客机的可能性，两国工作组近期将就成立合资企业进行会谈；但目前谈论实施项目还为时尚早，因为中国类似飞机的技术指标和建造期限同MS-21不同。
看了这个消息，心里一边是拔凉拔凉的，悲哀中国民机制造业的不争气；一边却是感觉那群人活该，让他们光捞钱不干活，这下彻底没他们事了。
中国航空制造业这几年来一直在吆喝两个大项目，即军用的“大运”和民用的“大客”这两个大型运输机，其中“大客”就是载客150人以上的大型干线客机。中航两大集团把大客项目看的尤其重要，因为民用飞机产量大油水足，能带来的利润远远超过订货量有限的大型军用运输机项目。
这次俄罗斯MS-21客机的定位与民航“大客”的定位接近，都是载客150-200人之间的中程干线客机；而我国不可能同时上2个定位相同的客机项目，因此一旦联合研制确定下来，那么“大客”项目肯定与它合二为一，放弃自己独立研制的努力。
唉，中国民机一次难得的发展良机，我们只能与他人分享。
但失落归失落，我绝不会因此指责国务院或航空集团中有人卖国当买办。我相信国务院考虑联合研制的最大原因就是中国民航工业的不争气，他们的太多无能、对他们的太多失望才是导致这一结果的根本原因。
上海飞机公司的一群人近年来不断鼓吹运-10的成绩，甚至声称运-10已经完全符合商业运作的要求，其下马是中国航空制造业的最大损失。但他们死活不敢说的是，运-10西藏飞行后机体大梁变形已经无法再飞，机体结构全都是小部件拼凑，维护修理费用高到不可能实现商业化，只能当作技术验证机；更不要说正是这些人在航空部没有下命令的情况下就拆掉飞机毁弃图纸，现在却又把帽子扣在航空部头上。
航空部当年还想与空中客车公司合作生产A-310客机，并承诺出资几亿人民币；结果空客公司一连等了3年，国内不要说出钱，就连签一个出资意向书都不肯，愣是逼得法国人在股东大会前取消了合同。合同取消后第五天，国内的投资协议批准了，人家也不搭理你了。
今年初以来大力鼓吹的ARJ-21“翔凤”客机号称是国内自主研制的，但实际上就是买的美国麦道公司DC-9客机的图纸仿制的，自己独立研制了油漆图案还差不多。而且就这么一个1968年开始使用的老飞机，国内还前后花钱买了2次图纸，并为此找了个理由称“我们不会缩短机身长度”，丫这时候就不说自己独立研制了。
参加ARJ-21“翔凤”客机的航空系统人士只会内斗，几年内换了多任总经理与总设计师。你说这群人就是想挣钱也得把活干出来啊，可他根本不干活光想着捞钱，这能不让人生气吗。
这次中国商用飞机有限责任公司成立也能看出来，国家对航空业这群人完全看透不抱希望了，商飞集团5大领导中有3个是从航天系统调入的。以董事长兼党委书记张庆伟为例，他先后任航天部一院921工程运载火箭副总设计师、中国航天科技集团公司总经理、国防科学技术工业委员会主任，是个很明显的航天人。要是中国民机业稍微有点希望，国家也不至于这么明显的排斥他们。
这人一旦臭了名声，再想让别人相信就难了。
当年“仿制”ARJ-21的时候俄国人就提议两国合作，不要再去折腾50年前的老东西，两国一起研制新客机，到时候俄国向我们提供全套技术和生产资料。结果当年我们没与毛子合作，现在ARJ-21客机07年12月中首架下线已经有8个月，到现在还死活不敢试飞；俄国的苏霍伊-100客机已经试飞成功，我们想后悔都找不着地方了。
ARJ-21好歹是个仿制品，上飞和640厂有资料可抄都搞成这样。“大客”可是要从无到有自己研制出来的，你看了这群人的表现还敢相信他们吗？你还敢把几百亿资金交给这群人吗？你还敢把自己的希望寄托在他们身上吗？
所以说这次与俄国人的合作也是不得已而为之，毛子的技术虽然比欧美要差，但比我们还是要高出很多，尤其是不会出这种令人哭笑不得的低级错误；再一个是与毛子合作我们能拿到全套技术和生产资料，并全程学习如何设计一架大型飞机，这是与欧美合作所得不到的。
中国航空界的一群人已经把自己送上了绝路，但愿新进的人吸取教训不要染上业内的坏习气，从这次与毛子的合作中好好学些东西，日后也好为自己找份工作。
希望以后我们提起中国大飞机，不要是和中国足球一起。
今年初以来大力鼓吹的ARJ-21“翔凤”客机号称是国内自主研制的，但实际上就是买的美国麦道公司DC-9客机的图纸仿制的，自己独立研制了油漆图案还差不多。而且就这么一个1968年开始使用的老飞机，国内还前后花钱买了2次图纸，;funk :@ 并为此找了个理由称“我们不会缩短机身长度”，丫这时候就不说自己独立研制了。
;funk ;funk ;funk ;funk ;funk
;funk ;funk ;funk ;funk ;funk
这个邱贞玮谁啊？他说的权威吗？
看他说的这么言之凿凿应该也是内部人士了吧
看他说的这么言之凿凿应该也是内部人士了吧
好长啊，懒得看
骂完11B骂ARJ21，干吗呢
哇哈哈哈，召唤游民桑出来反驳……
那个图纸买两次是超大某学霸透露给作者的……
那个图纸买两次是超大某学霸透露给作者的……
ARJ21的确是个烂货。但也不像作者说的那样来历复杂。
另外，关于中俄合作研制，好像也是未定之事……
真假不知道,但是那个什么arj到现在也没上天是真的...
:L 胡说八道也要有个限度吧！Y-10飞西藏之后就不飞了么？，胡说八道！至少还从西藏飞回来呐！之后应该还飞过！怎么可能大梁出毛病！:@
大梁的确是弯了。。
hkc们最近好象都请假了，怎么歼10,歼11B,ARJ21轮番被踩啊:L
当年运运10的研制、试飞的情况现在还搞不清楚，谈何评价当年的是非功过，真是一笔糊涂帐。ARJ-21是怎么回事，是不是买的DC-9图纸，为什么到现在没有试飞？
原帖由 八宝山老妖 于 2008-7-21 17:16 发表
另外，关于中俄合作研制，好像也是未定之事……
=====================
不合作 ，难道靠那帮 FC 老 捣鼓到 天荒地老！？？？？;funk ;funk :L
最好的办法就是让民航自生自灭，那样他们就会有动力了
原帖由 风之洲 于 2008-7-21 17:41 发表
hkc们最近好象都请假了，怎么歼10,歼11B,ARJ21轮番被踩啊:L
侬见过哪个HKC捧过ARJ?
不管HKC,BKC，靠谱的都知道ARJ是什么东西
ARJ，[:a13:] ，最搞笑的是谁谁还成立了家幸福航空，用新舟和ARJ。[:a1:]
上海人精明哦。会占小便宜的人一般都吃大亏。。。
原帖由 ttysn 于 2008-7-21 17:36 发表
大梁的确是弯了。。
你神啊？它还飞得回来？它之后还飞了又怎么说？:@
技术研发确实不适合上海的文化，研发投入大、风险大、相当一段时间看不到收益，甚至永远没有收益。上海的文化适合精密制造和金融贸易。特别是金融贸易，积小便宜为大便宜，不把眼前利益拿到手，能不能有机会熬到吃大亏都不知道。国家计划经济时代把金融、航运、贸易几乎都窒息了，只好让上海上技术研发项目，做扬短避长的事情。
没有那么严重，那么悲观，不要危言耸听嘛。革命形势还是好的嘛。
PUPU来给大家讲解一下
总觉得ARJ21 就是一块踏脚石、一个饵而已～
飞机这东西要慎重，特别是民用飞机，不是本人对国内制造业不信任，实在是大家有目共睹啊，一定要踏踏实实的走好每一步，造不造得出来是一回事，有没有人敢坐是另一回事啊，每个人只有一条命，哪怕是最支持国货的人也不会冒生命危险去尝试吧？哎，就中国航空工业（不包括伟大的航天人）这帮人造的东西，咱还真有点信不过啊
原帖由 ttysn 于 2008-7-21 17:36 发表
大梁的确是弯了。。
预计之内还是预计之外？
原帖由 sdqdnym 于 2008-7-22 01:01 发表
飞机这东西要慎重，特别是民用飞机，不是本人对国内制造业不信任，实在是大家有目共睹啊，一定要踏踏实实的走好每一步，造不造得出来是一回事，有没有人敢坐是另一回事啊，每个人只有一条命，哪怕是最支持国货的人也 ...
胡说八道有谱没有？Y-10的那些乘客怎么就活得好好的？设计人员参加首飞还不够么？
原帖由 Spica 于 2008-7-22 00:24 发表
PUPU来给大家讲解一下
不要动不动就上海的人不行，沈阳的人太烂，成都的人太刁，南昌的人太蠢。实际上从建国到现在，航空工业未能取得航天口那样的进展，原因是多方面的。搞大飞机，不是一朝一夕的事情。有矛盾，有挫折，这个不是什么大事情。如果一下子就能搞好，那倒见了鬼了。
PUPU，大飞机有哈好消息，小小的透个气。[:a14:] [:a14:] [:a14:]
The following article predicts China will not join the Russian jet liner project. It has some grounds...
So, the Farnborough air show took place this past week with a lot of fanfare. The Russians unveiled their "new su-35" fighter and MS-21 airliner. Bombardier signed the agreement with SAC to build the fuelsage for the C-Series. And as expected, the Chinese airlines bought a bunch of Boeing/Airbus planes and CFM/IAE engines. At the same time, the Chinese aircraft makers achieved nothing as we expected.
We've known for a while that China wants to learn from the West in aircraft design and manufacturing. It has done so in its cooperation with Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier and Embraer. The question is, do the Russians really have anything to offer to China? If you read the press release this week, the first thing that the Russians talked about were going through this project with China. You can see one of the reports for it here.
At the International Air Show in Farnborough outside London, which celebrates its 60th anniversary this year, Russian air companies are expected to sign a series of major deals with their counterparts.
The deals could cover both running projects, such as the Sukhoi SuperJet-100 civilian aircraft, and other upcoming projects. One of the latter is the MS-21 short- and medium-haul jetliner. Like the SuperJet, it is to be developed cooperatively with outside firms. In this case Chinese aircraft makers could become Russia's leading partners.
Alexei Fyodorov, head of Russia's United Aircraft Building Corporation, was somewhat cautious in announcing this news at Farnborough. Russia, he said, was not against a joint venture with China in the development of the "most ambitious Russian project."
This is not the first time the two countries have attempted to join forces in building an aircraft. In 2006, Russia proposed to China they both design and build a long-haul jetliner under a priority national project included in China's 2006-2010 five-year plan. As a starting point, Russia suggested the Russian-made Il-96-300. The results of this joint venture could compete with America's Boeing and Europe's Airbus.
Russia was clear about its motives. Its air carriers today need between 200 and 300 passenger liners of this class. Unfortunately, many of them cannot afford new models and opt for cheaper used foreign makes. This is why Russia needs overseas partners: to share the risk. The Chinese, however, declined the offer, and Russia had to cancel the program.
China's decision is understandable. They need aircraft designed for medium distances, and this is what they will build. One of them - the ARJ-21, seating 78-90 passengers - is expected to go into production in 2009. It was developed with the American firms and Ukraine's Antonov design bureau. Russia was left out in the cold.
Last year, China decided to build a medium-haul 150-passenger airliner, and in May of this year the Chinese Commercial Aircraft Company was set up in Shanghai.
But Russian producers have not abandoned hope. Sukhoi's General Director Mikhail Pogosyan visited Beijing late in May and said his company would cooperate with China in designing civilian aircraft. Now, at Farnborough, he is echoed by Irkut leaders, the corporation planning to build MS-21s.
Unlike Russia, China has never built its own passenger planes. The 1980 project to develop the 178-seat Y-10, a rival of the Boeing-707, ended in failure as did a later attempt to launch mass production of an airliner similar in design to a McDonnel Douglas model. It may be that the Chinese will now look more favorably at Russian proposals.
Russia needs cooperation. When Russian aircraft builders plan production quantities, they must know if their product will be in demand not so much in Russia as outside it. Industry and Trade Minister Viktor Khristenko said the domestic market in Russia is not large enough to make aircraft production commercially viable. In fact, Sukhoi Holding intends to sell 500 of the planned 800 SuperJet-100 models abroad before 2024. To make its position sure, it sold a blocking stake in its civilian segment to Italy's Alenia Aeronautica.
The importance of two large players appearing on the Russian aircraft market is hard to overestimate. They would be capable of eliminating the present shortage of short- and medium-haul airliners. In the next few years, the Sukhoi SuperJet-100 could replace the veteran Yak-42, as well as the Tu-134, which, in many cases, is being written off as scrap. The MS-21, once it enters the market in 2015, will not only replace the Tu-154 and Tu-204, but also the A320, which will have reached the end of its service life by that time. What's more, Irkut promises the MS-21 will be 15% lighter than its European cousin and consume 25% less fuel, a factor to bear in mind as jet fuel prices continue to soar.
Analysts say Russian air carriers will require 800 to 1,000 aircraft of various classes in the next decade. Russian aircraft builders will, unfortunately, be unable to prevail across the board. But medium-haul liners offer a glimmer of hope. Fyodorov says that the MS-21 and the SuperJet-100 can meet over 80% of domestic airline requirements for aircraft in this size range.
Next year, at another show in Le Bourget, France, Irkut is planning to announce the results of international tenders for the production of MS-21 components. It will perhaps be known by then if the Chinese will participate in the project or opt for building their own airliner.
It's understandable why Russia would want to involve China in MS-21 (or RRJ originally). China represents such a large market that it would allow any project to be successful. Despite having possibly the least capable of the 3 designs (ARJ-21, RRJ and MRJ), China's ARJ-21 looks like the most likely to succeed. With 171 orders from domestic carriers already + 7 firm and 20 optional for export, ARJ-21 is far leading the rest of the field. Despite Sukhoi blowing a lot of hot air claiming markets all over the world (including China), it has only received 12 oversea orders so far on top of over 100 Russian orders. The number of Russian airlines with needs for regional aircraft really shocked me as I am composing this blog. In the case of China, I don't think it can actually take any more orders (not enough production capability), but I don't think the same problem exists with Sukhoi. And even in the cases when Chinese airlines are not ordering ARJ-21, they are still ordering from Embraer instead of Sukhoi. At this point, I think MRJ is doomed to failure regardless of the number of technological advancements its claiming.
Back to MS-21, Russians are claiming 25% fuel efficiency over A320. Considering that Airbus and Boeing's next generation airliner are not coming out until 2020, logic would dictate that MS-21 would be the most efficient airliner in this class for 5 years. However, whether the Russians can really develop something that's as fuel efficient and environmentally friendly as the Western firms is questionable. At the end, they are not likely to want to share too much of their design "secrets" with China. This is not to say that the Russians are stingy in this aspect. They have shared far more of their aerospace technology with China than any of the Western companies. Based on the deal they struck with India for the 5th generation aircraft, I would think that Sukhoi would want to keep much of their core technology. China would get to do some outsourcing work and probably an assembly line. But, do they really want to continue to get the same deal that they already get from Airbus? Would the Russians really treat them as an equal partner in such a project? All the bargaining power rests with China in this case. Their market power attracts cooperations from all the major aircraft makers. They have made developing "large airplane" a national pride kind of project (along the line of project 921). If the Russians can't offer something that's better than the west, they would have no chance with China.
As for su-35, it was unveiled with much publicity this week. I guess the Russians have realized by this point that China is not interested in this aircraft due to their faith in the J-11 series. It's interesting that they are offering it to India. I wonder why would India even buy this aircraft with MKI project already so far along? And without these two large buyers, who else would be able to afford su-35 in large numbers? It will be interesting to follow the status of this project.
So, the Farnborough air show took place this past week with a lot of fanfare. The Russians unveiled their "new su-35" fighter and MS-21 airliner. Bombardier signed the agreement with SAC to build the fuelsage for the C-Series. And as expected, the Chinese airlines bought a bunch of Boeing/Airbus planes and CFM/IAE engines. At the same time, the Chinese aircraft makers achieved nothing as we expected.
We've known for a while that China wants to learn from the West in aircraft design and manufacturing. It has done so in its cooperation with Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier and Embraer. The question is, do the Russians really have anything to offer to China? If you read the press release this week, the first thing that the Russians talked about were going through this project with China. You can see one of the reports for it here.
At the International Air Show in Farnborough outside London, which celebrates its 60th anniversary this year, Russian air companies are expected to sign a series of major deals with their counterparts.
The deals could cover both running projects, such as the Sukhoi SuperJet-100 civilian aircraft, and other upcoming projects. One of the latter is the MS-21 short- and medium-haul jetliner. Like the SuperJet, it is to be developed cooperatively with outside firms. In this case Chinese aircraft makers could become Russia's leading partners.
Alexei Fyodorov, head of Russia's United Aircraft Building Corporation, was somewhat cautious in announcing this news at Farnborough. Russia, he said, was not against a joint venture with China in the development of the "most ambitious Russian project."
This is not the first time the two countries have attempted to join forces in building an aircraft. In 2006, Russia proposed to China they both design and build a long-haul jetliner under a priority national project included in China's 2006-2010 five-year plan. As a starting point, Russia suggested the Russian-made Il-96-300. The results of this joint venture could compete with America's Boeing and Europe's Airbus.
Russia was clear about its motives. Its air carriers today need between 200 and 300 passenger liners of this class. Unfortunately, many of them cannot afford new models and opt for cheaper used foreign makes. This is why Russia needs overseas partners: to share the risk. The Chinese, however, declined the offer, and Russia had to cancel the program.
China's decision is understandable. They need aircraft designed for medium distances, and this is what they will build. One of them - the ARJ-21, seating 78-90 passengers - is expected to go into production in 2009. It was developed with the American firms and Ukraine's Antonov design bureau. Russia was left out in the cold.
Last year, China decided to build a medium-haul 150-passenger airliner, and in May of this year the Chinese Commercial Aircraft Company was set up in Shanghai.
But Russian producers have not abandoned hope. Sukhoi's General Director Mikhail Pogosyan visited Beijing late in May and said his company would cooperate with China in designing civilian aircraft. Now, at Farnborough, he is echoed by Irkut leaders, the corporation planning to build MS-21s.
Unlike Russia, China has never built its own passenger planes. The 1980 project to develop the 178-seat Y-10, a rival of the Boeing-707, ended in failure as did a later attempt to launch mass production of an airliner similar in design to a McDonnel Douglas model. It may be that the Chinese will now look more favorably at Russian proposals.
Russia needs cooperation. When Russian aircraft builders plan production quantities, they must know if their product will be in demand not so much in Russia as outside it. Industry and Trade Minister Viktor Khristenko said the domestic market in Russia is not large enough to make aircraft production commercially viable. In fact, Sukhoi Holding intends to sell 500 of the planned 800 SuperJet-100 models abroad before 2024. To make its position sure, it sold a blocking stake in its civilian segment to Italy's Alenia Aeronautica.
The importance of two large players appearing on the Russian aircraft market is hard to overestimate. They would be capable of eliminating the present shortage of short- and medium-haul airliners. In the next few years, the Sukhoi SuperJet-100 could replace the veteran Yak-42, as well as the Tu-134, which, in many cases, is being written off as scrap. The MS-21, once it enters the market in 2015, will not only replace the Tu-154 and Tu-204, but also the A320, which will have reached the end of its service life by that time. What's more, Irkut promises the MS-21 will be 15% lighter than its European cousin and consume 25% less fuel, a factor to bear in mind as jet fuel prices continue to soar.
Analysts say Russian air carriers will require 800 to 1,000 aircraft of various classes in the next decade. Russian aircraft builders will, unfortunately, be unable to prevail across the board. But medium-haul liners offer a glimmer of hope. Fyodorov says that the MS-21 and the SuperJet-100 can meet over 80% of domestic airline requirements for aircraft in this size range.
Next year, at another show in Le Bourget, France, Irkut is planning to announce the results of international tenders for the production of MS-21 components. It will perhaps be known by then if the Chinese will participate in the project or opt for building their own airliner.
It's understandable why Russia would want to involve China in MS-21 (or RRJ originally). China represents such a large market that it would allow any project to be successful. Despite having possibly the least capable of the 3 designs (ARJ-21, RRJ and MRJ), China's ARJ-21 looks like the most likely to succeed. With 171 orders from domestic carriers already + 7 firm and 20 optional for export, ARJ-21 is far leading the rest of the field. Despite Sukhoi blowing a lot of hot air claiming markets all over the world (including China), it has only received 12 oversea orders so far on top of over 100 Russian orders. The number of Russian airlines with needs for regional aircraft really shocked me as I am composing this blog. In the case of China, I don't think it can actually take any more orders (not enough production capability), but I don't think the same problem exists with Sukhoi. And even in the cases when Chinese airlines are not ordering ARJ-21, they are still ordering from Embraer instead of Sukhoi. At this point, I think MRJ is doomed to failure regardless of the number of technological advancements its claiming.
Back to MS-21, Russians are claiming 25% fuel efficiency over A320. Considering that Airbus and Boeing's next generation airliner are not coming out until 2020, logic would dictate that MS-21 would be the most efficient airliner in this class for 5 years. However, whether the Russians can really develop something that's as fuel efficient and environmentally friendly as the Western firms is questionable. At the end, they are not likely to want to share too much of their design "secrets" with China. This is not to say that the Russians are stingy in this aspect. They have shared far more of their aerospace technology with China than any of the Western companies. Based on the deal they struck with India for the 5th generation aircraft, I would think that Sukhoi would want to keep much of their core technology. China would get to do some outsourcing work and probably an assembly line. But, do they really want to continue to get the same deal that they already get from Airbus? Would the Russians really treat them as an equal partner in such a project? All the bargaining power rests with China in this case. Their market power attracts cooperations from all the major aircraft makers. They have made developing "large airplane" a national pride kind of project (along the line of project 921). If the Russians can't offer something that's better than the west, they would have no chance with China.
As for su-35, it was unveiled with much publicity this week. I guess the Russians have realized by this point that China is not interested in this aircraft due to their faith in the J-11 series. It's interesting that they are offering it to India. I wonder why would India even buy this aircraft with MKI project already so far along? And without these two large buyers, who else would be able to afford su-35 in large numbers? It will be interesting to follow the status of this project.
原帖由 pupu 于 2008-7-22 00:18 发表
没有那么严重，那么悲观，不要危言耸听嘛。革命形势还是好的嘛。
没有早些听到PUPU主席的教导啊[:a5:]
说句难听的，上海这帮人还是适合投机倒把，静下心来搞研发，还是要靠西南和西北的同志们
悲愤党很强大的说:') 邱贞玮=求真伪？看来是笔名
by http://XingMing.Net总格35的解析（高楼望月）温和平静，智达通畅，文昌技艺，奏功洋洋。 （吉）
原帖由 木头龙 于 2008-7-21 17:25 发表
:L 胡说八道也要有个限度吧！Y-10飞西藏之后就不飞了么？，胡说八道！至少还从西藏飞回来呐！之后应该还飞过！怎么可能大梁出毛病！:@
机体严重变形是真的。
原帖由 老牛居 于 2008-7-22 11:01 发表
悲愤党很强大的说:') 邱贞玮=求真伪？看来是笔名
------------------游民桑，俺同情你……
原帖由 八宝山老妖 于 2008-7-22 11:24 发表
------------------游民桑，俺同情你……
楼上的意思，游民桑就是求真伪了？
“ZT邱贞玮”是谁啊？
原帖由 木头龙 于 2008-7-22 01:18 发表
胡说八道有谱没有？Y-10的那些乘客怎么就活得好好的？设计人员参加首飞还不够么？
是你说的更没谱一些吧。Y10总共才飞了多少小时？
另外，不让设计人员参加首飞，难道还让一飞机普通乘客给你参加首飞啊？;P
PUPU 自己投资大飞机公司，当然叫好。
我想知道 大运去年不是说差不多要出来了吗？怎么还没出
我想知道 大运去年不是说差不多要出来了吗？怎么还没出