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中国致使美国打造的隐形飞机项目变成了废物？Did China Just Render America's $1 Trillion Stealth Fighter Program Obsolete?
2014-10-20  剑越红尘  30128  27  0
译文简介
在兰德公司2013年的一份报告中，一个本国最重要的军事分析师抨击F35“机动差，爬升差，续航差”，而F35的支持者则回应说其能隐形，可以在敌人看见它之前就发射导弹。
译文来源
原文地址：http://www.fool.com/investing/ge ... illion-stealth.aspx
正文翻译
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译：剑越红尘 转载请注明出处
论坛地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-320604-1-1.html

Did China Just Render America's $1 Trillion Stealth Fighter Program Obsolete?

中国致使美国一万亿美元打造的隐形飞机项目变成了废物？

In a 2013 RAND Corporation report, one of the nation's foremost military analysts, blasted the F-35 for being a fighter that "can't turn, can't climb, can't run." Proponents of the F-35 reply that because it's stealthy, it shouldn't have to do any of those things -- lobbing missiles at its foes from over the horizon, and long before they can even see it.

在兰德公司2013年的一份报告中，一个本国最重要的军事分析师抨击F35“机动差，爬升差，续航差”，而F35的支持者则回应说其能隐形，可以在敌人看见它之前就发射导弹。

Unfortunately, it turns out that the F-35 may not do the "invisibility" thing very well, either.

不幸的是，事实证明F35并不能很好的“隐形”。



Invisible becomes visible -- voila!

隐形变为不隐形——没有错！

As DefenseNews.com recently revealed, China has a new device that may be able to track Lockheed's F-35 fighter with "passive" radar detection technology. Dubbed the DWL002, China's equipment can apparently detect stealth aircraft at distances of up to 400 kilometers -- and 600 kilometers for larger "stealth" targets -- processing "pulse, frequency agility, pulse duration, tactical air navigation system, distance measuring equipment, jitter/stagger radar, and identification friend or foe" signals emitted by the otherwise stealthy aircraft to determine its location.

正如防务新闻网站最近所说，中国有了新设备，其可以用“被动”雷达探测技术跟踪洛克希德公司的F35战斗机，其被称之为DWL002，中国的这一设备似乎可以在400公里到600公里范围内探测到大型“隐形”目标——并处理“脉冲，频率捷变，脉冲宽度，战术空中导航系统，距离测量设备，抖动/交错雷达、敌我识别”根据隐形飞机发出的信号来确定它的位置。

To be clear, DWL002 is not an active radar system itself. As International Assessment and Strategy Center senior fellow Richard Fisher explains "Passive systems like these simply listen for any electronic emission," identifying an aircraft without having to ping it with an active radar transmitter. As such, whether or not the F-35 is itself invisible to "radar" may be a moot point.、

简单的说，DWL002本身不是主动雷达系统，国际评估和战略中心的高级研究员理查德 费舍尔说“这样的被动系统只是在监听任一电子发射信号,“期不用主动雷达发射机就可识别飞机。因此，F35是否本身对“雷达”隐身可能是一个有争议的问题。

China can "see" it anyway

总之，中国能发现它.



And so can Russia   

俄罗斯也能

This problem with the F-35's lack of invisibility, it turns out, is not limited to China. According to DN, both the Czechs and the Ukrainians have similar systems for passive intercept of electronic signals, capable of detecting stealth aircraft.

F35欠缺隐身能力，事实是这不仅限于中国，根据DN报告指出，捷克和乌克兰拥有同样可以被动拦截电子讯号的系统，同时具备发现隐身战机的能力。

Similarly, Aviation Week reported earlier this year that certain very high frequency (VHF) radar systems, such as Russia's P-14 Oborona VHF early warning system, and its 3D Nebo SVU active electronically scanned array (AESA), may also be capable of detecting the F-35. (A new Chinese naval radar system, Type 517M VHF, may be similarly effective against the F-35.)

同样的，航空周刊早前也指出如俄罗斯P14 Oborona甚高频率早期预警系统和其有源电子扫描阵，可能也具备发现F35的能力（中国海军新式517M型甚高频雷达，可能也具备相同的效能）

And of course, there is the Balkan War incident to keep in mind. On March 27, 1999, Serbian anti-aircraft forces used a 1960s vintage P-18 VHF acquisition radar system (working in conjunction with an SA-3 SAM system for proximity targeting) to detect and down a F-117 stealth fighter jet.
巴尔干半岛战争事故还记忆犹新，在1999年3月27日，塞尔维亚用60年代的P18甚高频搜索雷达配以防空武器（与萨姆3系统连接并接近目标）发现并击落了F117隐身战斗机

What this all means for Lockheed Martin

这对洛克希德马丁公司来说意味着什么

Now, experts differ on how effective these various aircraft detection systems will be against the F-35. For one thing, while passive detection systems can tell an opponent that there's an F-35 "out there," it still takes an active detection system to guide a missile to shoot it down. But if the critics are right, it could still undermine the aircraft's reputation for invisibility, and pose a significant threat to Lockheed Martin's business.

如今，专家们在这些种反隐身战机系统的性能如何上的意见分歧，首先，被动探测系统可以告诉敌人有一架F35“在那”，它仍然需要一个主动探测系统引导导弹击落它，但如果批评者是正确的，那么它仍然会破坏飞机的隐身的声誉，并对洛克希德·马丁公司的业务构成重大威胁。

It's been 13 years now since Lockheed Martin won the contract to build what was then known as the "joint strike fighter," beating out Boeing (NYSE: BA ) for that honor. Since then, Lockheed stock has risen an astonishing five times in value, from $35.29 (adjusted for dividends and stock splits) on Oct. 29, 2001, to more than $176 per share today. While many factors contributed to this outperformance, Lockheed's winning the F-35 franchise has certainly contributed mightily to the stock's success.

自从洛克希德·马丁公司光荣地击败了波音公司并赢得了建造当时被称为“联合攻击战斗机”的合同已经13年了，从那时起，洛克希德公司的股票惊人的上升了5倍，从2001年的10月29日的35.29美元（调整的股息和股票分拆)到今天的每股超过176美元。虽然许多因素导致了这种表现，但洛克希德公司的赢得了fF35系列无疑为股票的成功做出了巨大贡献。

After all, analysts estimate that over the program's estimate 60-year lifespan, the F-35 will bring Lockheed Martin as much as $1.1 trillion worth of high-margin revenues -- or more. At the 11.2% profit margin that Lockheed Martin earns at its Aeronautics division (thanks to S&P Capital IQ for the data), that works out to about $112 billion in profits the company could earn from this single product -- twice the market capitalization of the whole company.

终究，分析师估计，该项目有大约60年的寿命，F35将为洛克希德·马丁公司价值带来高达1.1万亿美元的高利润收入——甚至更多。洛克希德·马丁公司在其航空业务部门有着11.2%的利润率(感谢标普资本智商公司提供的数据)，该公司从这个单一产品中可以赚约1120亿美元的利润，这是整个公司市值的两倍。

But if the F-35 comes up short in the "invisibility" department, that franchise could be in jeopardy.

但如果F35在隐身性能上有所不足，那么特许经营可能会变得岌岌可危。

The upshot for investors

对于投资者来说的要点

The thing about technology is that it's always changing. What was cutting edge tech in 2001 could be obsolete by 2021. If that happens, and if the F-35 is ultimately not built in the quantities originally anticipated (as was the case with Lockheed Martin's similarly high-tech F-22 Raptor fighter jet, you'll recall), then Lockheed Martin stock could be worth less than investors are counting on.

科技是不断变化的，2001年的前沿技术到2021年就可能被废弃了，如果F35的建造量不如预期（就像其F22猛禽战斗机那样），那么洛克希德马丁公司的股票可能就不会如投资者的预期的那样。中国致使美国打造的隐形飞机项目变成了废物？Did China Just Render America's $1 Trillion Stealth Fighter Program Obsolete?
2014-10-20  剑越红尘  30128  27  0
译文简介
在兰德公司2013年的一份报告中，一个本国最重要的军事分析师抨击F35“机动差，爬升差，续航差”，而F35的支持者则回应说其能隐形，可以在敌人看见它之前就发射导弹。
译文来源
原文地址：http://www.fool.com/investing/ge ... illion-stealth.aspx
正文翻译
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译：剑越红尘 转载请注明出处
论坛地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-320604-1-1.html

Did China Just Render America's $1 Trillion Stealth Fighter Program Obsolete?

中国致使美国一万亿美元打造的隐形飞机项目变成了废物？

In a 2013 RAND Corporation report, one of the nation's foremost military analysts, blasted the F-35 for being a fighter that "can't turn, can't climb, can't run." Proponents of the F-35 reply that because it's stealthy, it shouldn't have to do any of those things -- lobbing missiles at its foes from over the horizon, and long before they can even see it.

在兰德公司2013年的一份报告中，一个本国最重要的军事分析师抨击F35“机动差，爬升差，续航差”，而F35的支持者则回应说其能隐形，可以在敌人看见它之前就发射导弹。

Unfortunately, it turns out that the F-35 may not do the "invisibility" thing very well, either.

不幸的是，事实证明F35并不能很好的“隐形”。



Invisible becomes visible -- voila!

隐形变为不隐形——没有错！

As DefenseNews.com recently revealed, China has a new device that may be able to track Lockheed's F-35 fighter with "passive" radar detection technology. Dubbed the DWL002, China's equipment can apparently detect stealth aircraft at distances of up to 400 kilometers -- and 600 kilometers for larger "stealth" targets -- processing "pulse, frequency agility, pulse duration, tactical air navigation system, distance measuring equipment, jitter/stagger radar, and identification friend or foe" signals emitted by the otherwise stealthy aircraft to determine its location.

正如防务新闻网站最近所说，中国有了新设备，其可以用“被动”雷达探测技术跟踪洛克希德公司的F35战斗机，其被称之为DWL002，中国的这一设备似乎可以在400公里到600公里范围内探测到大型“隐形”目标——并处理“脉冲，频率捷变，脉冲宽度，战术空中导航系统，距离测量设备，抖动/交错雷达、敌我识别”根据隐形飞机发出的信号来确定它的位置。

To be clear, DWL002 is not an active radar system itself. As International Assessment and Strategy Center senior fellow Richard Fisher explains "Passive systems like these simply listen for any electronic emission," identifying an aircraft without having to ping it with an active radar transmitter. As such, whether or not the F-35 is itself invisible to "radar" may be a moot point.、

简单的说，DWL002本身不是主动雷达系统，国际评估和战略中心的高级研究员理查德 费舍尔说“这样的被动系统只是在监听任一电子发射信号,“期不用主动雷达发射机就可识别飞机。因此，F35是否本身对“雷达”隐身可能是一个有争议的问题。

China can "see" it anyway

总之，中国能发现它.



And so can Russia   

俄罗斯也能

This problem with the F-35's lack of invisibility, it turns out, is not limited to China. According to DN, both the Czechs and the Ukrainians have similar systems for passive intercept of electronic signals, capable of detecting stealth aircraft.

F35欠缺隐身能力，事实是这不仅限于中国，根据DN报告指出，捷克和乌克兰拥有同样可以被动拦截电子讯号的系统，同时具备发现隐身战机的能力。

Similarly, Aviation Week reported earlier this year that certain very high frequency (VHF) radar systems, such as Russia's P-14 Oborona VHF early warning system, and its 3D Nebo SVU active electronically scanned array (AESA), may also be capable of detecting the F-35. (A new Chinese naval radar system, Type 517M VHF, may be similarly effective against the F-35.)

同样的，航空周刊早前也指出如俄罗斯P14 Oborona甚高频率早期预警系统和其有源电子扫描阵，可能也具备发现F35的能力（中国海军新式517M型甚高频雷达，可能也具备相同的效能）

And of course, there is the Balkan War incident to keep in mind. On March 27, 1999, Serbian anti-aircraft forces used a 1960s vintage P-18 VHF acquisition radar system (working in conjunction with an SA-3 SAM system for proximity targeting) to detect and down a F-117 stealth fighter jet.
巴尔干半岛战争事故还记忆犹新，在1999年3月27日，塞尔维亚用60年代的P18甚高频搜索雷达配以防空武器（与萨姆3系统连接并接近目标）发现并击落了F117隐身战斗机

What this all means for Lockheed Martin

这对洛克希德马丁公司来说意味着什么

Now, experts differ on how effective these various aircraft detection systems will be against the F-35. For one thing, while passive detection systems can tell an opponent that there's an F-35 "out there," it still takes an active detection system to guide a missile to shoot it down. But if the critics are right, it could still undermine the aircraft's reputation for invisibility, and pose a significant threat to Lockheed Martin's business.

如今，专家们在这些种反隐身战机系统的性能如何上的意见分歧，首先，被动探测系统可以告诉敌人有一架F35“在那”，它仍然需要一个主动探测系统引导导弹击落它，但如果批评者是正确的，那么它仍然会破坏飞机的隐身的声誉，并对洛克希德·马丁公司的业务构成重大威胁。

It's been 13 years now since Lockheed Martin won the contract to build what was then known as the "joint strike fighter," beating out Boeing (NYSE: BA ) for that honor. Since then, Lockheed stock has risen an astonishing five times in value, from $35.29 (adjusted for dividends and stock splits) on Oct. 29, 2001, to more than $176 per share today. While many factors contributed to this outperformance, Lockheed's winning the F-35 franchise has certainly contributed mightily to the stock's success.

自从洛克希德·马丁公司光荣地击败了波音公司并赢得了建造当时被称为“联合攻击战斗机”的合同已经13年了，从那时起，洛克希德公司的股票惊人的上升了5倍，从2001年的10月29日的35.29美元（调整的股息和股票分拆)到今天的每股超过176美元。虽然许多因素导致了这种表现，但洛克希德公司的赢得了fF35系列无疑为股票的成功做出了巨大贡献。

After all, analysts estimate that over the program's estimate 60-year lifespan, the F-35 will bring Lockheed Martin as much as $1.1 trillion worth of high-margin revenues -- or more. At the 11.2% profit margin that Lockheed Martin earns at its Aeronautics division (thanks to S&P Capital IQ for the data), that works out to about $112 billion in profits the company could earn from this single product -- twice the market capitalization of the whole company.

终究，分析师估计，该项目有大约60年的寿命，F35将为洛克希德·马丁公司价值带来高达1.1万亿美元的高利润收入——甚至更多。洛克希德·马丁公司在其航空业务部门有着11.2%的利润率(感谢标普资本智商公司提供的数据)，该公司从这个单一产品中可以赚约1120亿美元的利润，这是整个公司市值的两倍。

But if the F-35 comes up short in the "invisibility" department, that franchise could be in jeopardy.

但如果F35在隐身性能上有所不足，那么特许经营可能会变得岌岌可危。

The upshot for investors

对于投资者来说的要点

The thing about technology is that it's always changing. What was cutting edge tech in 2001 could be obsolete by 2021. If that happens, and if the F-35 is ultimately not built in the quantities originally anticipated (as was the case with Lockheed Martin's similarly high-tech F-22 Raptor fighter jet, you'll recall), then Lockheed Martin stock could be worth less than investors are counting on.

科技是不断变化的，2001年的前沿技术到2021年就可能被废弃了，如果F35的建造量不如预期（就像其F22猛禽战斗机那样），那么洛克希德马丁公司的股票可能就不会如投资者的预期的那样。