中国海军核潜艇首次公开巡航印度洋（航线分析更新）

“今日印度”2014年3月21日报道，一艘中国攻击核潜艇(SSN)首次在印度洋海域进行了两个月的公开巡航。中国国防部外事办公室在去年12月3日通知了印度驻华武官，以表示对印度的尊重。
印度海军情报部门认为，这艘商级核潜艇从2013年12月13日至2014年2月12日的巡航对印度安全构成极大威胁。
情报部门预测，从核潜艇到达印度洋后2-3年内，中国的航母舰队也有可能出现在这一海域。
海军人士说，这艘潜艇是2013年12月3日离开海南的基地，12月13日经过印尼附近的Ombai Wetar海峡到达亚丁湾。它在附近海域巡航了两个月左右。
中国国防部就这艘潜艇通知了其他5个国家，包括美国，新加坡，印尼，巴基斯坦，俄罗斯。这样有利于避免潜艇遇到技术问题时其他国家的敌对反应。


===============

简要分析一下。中方通知了新加坡和印尼，说明从这两个国家附近经过，但没有通知马来西亚。说明来回未通过马六甲海峡，也没有通知菲律宾，那么航线可能是从三亚出发，经南海、卡里玛塔海峡、爪哇海、弗洛勒斯海、班达海，穿过Ombai Wetar海峡进入印度洋。为什么不走巽他海峡或者龙目海峡？可能是为了熟悉更多的海域。（此处分析可能有误）

最初的分析没有考虑到水深因素，卡里玛塔海峡和爪哇海西部水深只有50米左右，不适合潜艇隐蔽通过。更合理的航线是通过南海东侧的菲律宾海域。笔者推测是通过民都洛海峡-苏禄海-苏拉威西海-望加锡海峡-班达海-翁拜海峡-印度洋。（谢谢邱贞玮网友的指正）

走这条路线到亚丁湾，航程超过7000海里，如果是10天到达，平均航速超过29节，这是不可能的。因此，印度媒体的报道很可能搞错了，10天时间是从三亚到进入印度洋，这样的航程约为3000海里，平均航速约为12.5节，是正常的航渡速度。随后开始从东帝汶到亚丁湾的2个月印度洋巡航，其中很可能还进入了阿拉伯海。这些海域从古代的“海上丝绸之路”至今都是中国的海上贸易主要航道，中国海军核潜艇的巡航是保卫国家海上安全利益的正当行为。

还有一点需要指出，从亚丁湾海域到我国内陆直线距离超过6000 km，对水下状态的潜艇通信是个很大的难题。而我国已经建成超低频对潜通信系统，可以对8000 km外100 m深度的潜艇进行通信，确保了核潜艇威慑的可靠有效。



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http://indiatoday.intoday.in/sto ... ocean/1/350498.html

Exclusive: Indian Navy headless as Chinese nuclear sub prowls Indian Ocean
Sandeep Unnithan  New Delhi, March 21, 2014 | UPDATED 14:12 IST

A Chinese nuclear powered attack submarine (SSN) made its first declared operational patrol for two months in the Indian Ocean. The Foreign Affairs Office of China's Ministry of Defence informed India's military attache in Beijing of the deployment on December 3 last year "to demonstrate respect for India."

Top secret intelligence assessments preapared by R&AW and Naval Intelligence terms, term the two-month deployment of the Shang class SSN between December 13, 2013 and February 12, 2014, as 'seriously aggravating India's security concerns'.

India's security establishment is still assessing the impact of the deployment that comes at a time when the Indian Navy has been headless for over three weeks. Defence Minister AK Antony swiftly accepted Admiral DK Joshi's resignation on February 26-he quit owing moral responsibility for a string of naval accidents - but is yet to appoint his successor.

The assessements circulated among the highest levels of India's security establishment last month, predict the Chinese SSN patrol will be followed by the deployment of a Carrier Battle Group (CBG) in two or three years.

Intelligence reports say the Chinese deployment aims to 'demonstrate its ability to protect its interests in Africa and West Asia as well as Sea Lanes of Communications' and 'to send a message of persuasion to Indian Ocean Rim States.'

Naval sources say the Shang class submarine left its bastion on Hainan island in the South China Sea on December 3. Ten days later, on December 13, the SSN reached the Gulf of Aden via the Ombai Wetar Straits near Indonesia. It remained on patrol in the area for nearly two moths. China has deployed two warships on anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden region since 2008.

The deployment of the submarine armed with land attack and anti-ship cruise missiles and torpedoes, has ominous consequences for the Indian Navy's ability to project power into the Indian Ocean. The navy considers the region it considers its primary sphere of influence but suffers from a short-legged undersea fleet. Only seven of India's fleet of 13 conventionally powered submarines are operational. One Kilo class submarine exploded and sank in Mumbai harbour on August 14 last year. The navy operates a solitary Akula class SSN, INS Chakra, leased from Russia in 2012.

The Arihant, the first of three indigenously built nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) is yet to commence sea trials, five years after it was launched. The government is yet to okay a 2010 proposal by the navy to build a fleet of four indigenous SSNs to escort the Arihant SSBNs and protect Indian aircraft carriers.

"China has credibly demonstrated a formidable capability in our backyard," says Vice Admiral KN Sushil, veteran submariner and former Southern Naval Command chief. "We are yet to sail the Arihant, we are nowhere near starting our own SSN programme and we have no strategic capability yet to deter China."

Vice Admiral Sushil says the deployment of SSN screens with the Chinese CBGs will give the Chinese "awesome power" and seriously challenge the Indian Navy's sea control strategy.

China's Ministry of Defence informed five other nations- the United States, Singapore, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Russia - of the submarine's deployment in December. Naval officials say this was done possibly to prevent adverse reactions in case their SSN encountered technical problems. Older Chinese 'Han' class SSNs have been plagued by reactor troubles. Analysts say the glitch-free deployment of the submarine seems to indicate the Chinese have overcome the reactor troubles in the Shang class. China has two Shang class second-generation boats and is building four more.

“今日印度”2014年3月21日报道，一艘中国攻击核潜艇(SSN)首次在印度洋海域进行了两个月的公开巡航。中国国防部外事办公室在去年12月3日通知了印度驻华武官，以表示对印度的尊重。
印度海军情报部门认为，这艘商级核潜艇从2013年12月13日至2014年2月12日的巡航对印度安全构成极大威胁。
情报部门预测，从核潜艇到达印度洋后2-3年内，中国的航母舰队也有可能出现在这一海域。
海军人士说，这艘潜艇是2013年12月3日离开海南的基地，12月13日经过印尼附近的Ombai Wetar海峡到达亚丁湾。它在附近海域巡航了两个月左右。
中国国防部就这艘潜艇通知了其他5个国家，包括美国，新加坡，印尼，巴基斯坦，俄罗斯。这样有利于避免潜艇遇到技术问题时其他国家的敌对反应。


===============

简要分析一下。中方通知了新加坡和印尼，说明从这两个国家附近经过，但没有通知马来西亚。说明来回未通过马六甲海峡，也没有通知菲律宾，那么航线可能是从三亚出发，经南海、卡里玛塔海峡、爪哇海、弗洛勒斯海、班达海，穿过Ombai Wetar海峡进入印度洋。为什么不走巽他海峡或者龙目海峡？可能是为了熟悉更多的海域。（此处分析可能有误）

最初的分析没有考虑到水深因素，卡里玛塔海峡和爪哇海西部水深只有50米左右，不适合潜艇隐蔽通过。更合理的航线是通过南海东侧的菲律宾海域。笔者推测是通过民都洛海峡-苏禄海-苏拉威西海-望加锡海峡-班达海-翁拜海峡-印度洋。（谢谢邱贞玮网友的指正）

走这条路线到亚丁湾，航程超过7000海里，如果是10天到达，平均航速超过29节，这是不可能的。因此，印度媒体的报道很可能搞错了，10天时间是从三亚到进入印度洋，这样的航程约为3000海里，平均航速约为12.5节，是正常的航渡速度。随后开始从东帝汶到亚丁湾的2个月印度洋巡航，其中很可能还进入了阿拉伯海。这些海域从古代的“海上丝绸之路”至今都是中国的海上贸易主要航道，中国海军核潜艇的巡航是保卫国家海上安全利益的正当行为。

还有一点需要指出，从亚丁湾海域到我国内陆直线距离超过6000 km，对水下状态的潜艇通信是个很大的难题。而我国已经建成超低频对潜通信系统，可以对8000 km外100 m深度的潜艇进行通信，确保了核潜艇威慑的可靠有效。



============

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/sto ... ocean/1/350498.html

Exclusive: Indian Navy headless as Chinese nuclear sub prowls Indian Ocean
Sandeep Unnithan  New Delhi, March 21, 2014 | UPDATED 14:12 IST

A Chinese nuclear powered attack submarine (SSN) made its first declared operational patrol for two months in the Indian Ocean. The Foreign Affairs Office of China's Ministry of Defence informed India's military attache in Beijing of the deployment on December 3 last year "to demonstrate respect for India."

Top secret intelligence assessments preapared by R&AW and Naval Intelligence terms, term the two-month deployment of the Shang class SSN between December 13, 2013 and February 12, 2014, as 'seriously aggravating India's security concerns'.

India's security establishment is still assessing the impact of the deployment that comes at a time when the Indian Navy has been headless for over three weeks. Defence Minister AK Antony swiftly accepted Admiral DK Joshi's resignation on February 26-he quit owing moral responsibility for a string of naval accidents - but is yet to appoint his successor.

The assessements circulated among the highest levels of India's security establishment last month, predict the Chinese SSN patrol will be followed by the deployment of a Carrier Battle Group (CBG) in two or three years.

Intelligence reports say the Chinese deployment aims to 'demonstrate its ability to protect its interests in Africa and West Asia as well as Sea Lanes of Communications' and 'to send a message of persuasion to Indian Ocean Rim States.'

Naval sources say the Shang class submarine left its bastion on Hainan island in the South China Sea on December 3. Ten days later, on December 13, the SSN reached the Gulf of Aden via the Ombai Wetar Straits near Indonesia. It remained on patrol in the area for nearly two moths. China has deployed two warships on anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden region since 2008.

The deployment of the submarine armed with land attack and anti-ship cruise missiles and torpedoes, has ominous consequences for the Indian Navy's ability to project power into the Indian Ocean. The navy considers the region it considers its primary sphere of influence but suffers from a short-legged undersea fleet. Only seven of India's fleet of 13 conventionally powered submarines are operational. One Kilo class submarine exploded and sank in Mumbai harbour on August 14 last year. The navy operates a solitary Akula class SSN, INS Chakra, leased from Russia in 2012.

The Arihant, the first of three indigenously built nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) is yet to commence sea trials, five years after it was launched. The government is yet to okay a 2010 proposal by the navy to build a fleet of four indigenous SSNs to escort the Arihant SSBNs and protect Indian aircraft carriers.

"China has credibly demonstrated a formidable capability in our backyard," says Vice Admiral KN Sushil, veteran submariner and former Southern Naval Command chief. "We are yet to sail the Arihant, we are nowhere near starting our own SSN programme and we have no strategic capability yet to deter China."

Vice Admiral Sushil says the deployment of SSN screens with the Chinese CBGs will give the Chinese "awesome power" and seriously challenge the Indian Navy's sea control strategy.

China's Ministry of Defence informed five other nations- the United States, Singapore, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Russia - of the submarine's deployment in December. Naval officials say this was done possibly to prevent adverse reactions in case their SSN encountered technical problems. Older Chinese 'Han' class SSNs have been plagued by reactor troubles. Analysts say the glitch-free deployment of the submarine seems to indicate the Chinese have overcome the reactor troubles in the Shang class. China has two Shang class second-generation boats and is building four more.