潜水艇发帖，中国开始失去作为世界制造业工厂地位的优势 ...

转自龙腾网

新闻地址：http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-begins-lose-edge-worlds-

021100834.html
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BEIJING—China is losing its competitive edge as a low-cost manufacturing base,

new data suggest, with makers of everything from handbags to shirts to basic

electronic components relocating to cheaper locales like Southeast Asia.

中国正在失去他在低成本制造业的竞争优势，新的数据显示，从手提包到寸衫到电子组件

的的制造商把他们的产地搬迁到东南亚的国家。

The shift—illustrated in weakened foreign investment in China—has pluses and

minuses for an economy key to global growth. Beijing wants to shift to higher-

value production and to see incomes rise. But a de-emphasis on manufacturing

puts pressure on leaders to make sure jobs are created in other sectors to keep

the world's No. 2 economy humming.

这个对全世界经济产生重大影响的转移说明了对中国的投资在减弱，北京想要生产高附加

值的产品想要看到收入增长。但是不重视制造业会给领导一些压力，这些压力就是确保在

其他行业能创造出就业来确保这个世界第二经济体的繁荣。

Total foreign direct investment flowing into China fell 3.7% in 2012 to $111.72

billion, the Ministry of Commerce said Wednesday, the first annual decline

since the fallout from the global financial crisis in 2009.
Then, a 13% fall in foreign investment into China reflected dire conditions for

business in the U.S. and Europe, and global risk aversion, which choked off

capital flows. Economists say the drop in 2012 is also partly cyclical, driven

by slowing overall growth in China and Europe's prolonged debt crisis.

外国直接投资（FDI）的总量减少了3.7%，为1117.2亿美元，中国商务部在周三如是说，这

是从2009年景荣危机以来第一次外国直接投资（FDI）的降低。
还有，外资投资中国的下降了13%（和之前的FDI不同）反映了欧美可怕的经济情况，以及

全球性的风险厌恶，（投资者有风险偏好和风险厌恶之分，经济不好的情况下风险厌恶的

人会增多）这也阻碍了资金的流动。经济学家说，2012年的这个降低部分也是因为周期性

的原因，因为这个时候中国经济放缓和欧债危机的持续。

But it also is the result of a long-term trend of rising wages and other costs

that have made China less attractive, especially for basic manufacturing,

economists say.
By contrast, foreign direct investment into Indonesia was up 27% in the first

nine months of last year.
Coronet SpA, an Italian maker of synthetic leather with production in the

southern Chinese province of Guangdong, plans a new factory in Vietnam to take

advantage of lower labor costs and to be closer to its customers in the shoe

and handbag businesses, many of which have already moved there.

同时经济学家们也说，这种情况（FDI降低）也是由于长期的工资他其他成本的上升趋势导

致了中国失去吸引力，特别是在基础制造业方面。
相反地，上一年前9个月国外对印尼的直接投资上升了27%
例如SPA，一家在中国广东的合成皮革制造商，计划在越南开办新厂，充分利用（越南）的

低价劳动力的优势，同时靠近需要消耗皮革的鞋子手袋制造商，许多鞋子手袋制造商已经

搬到了越南

"A lot of our customers are already moving a part of their business in Far

Eastern countries with lower working cost," said Jarno Tagliarini, Coronet

chief executive. "Considering all the countries available, we think that

Vietnam is the most developed one."
Foreign capital helped build China into a low-cost manufacturing powerhouse and

global growth engine. But its increasingly urban population now has higher

expectations in terms of wages and working conditions and louder objections to

the pollution that often comes with low-level manufacturing—demands that have

eroded China's cost advantage.

许多消耗我们皮革的人已经把他们的生意转移到了远东国家，首席执行官Jamo Tagliarini

说道。我们想了一下所有可能去的国家之后，我们觉得越南最合适。
国外的资金帮助中国成为了低附加值制造业王国，也成了全球经济发展的引擎，但是持续

的城市化出现了对高工资的期待，对工作环境的要求对环境污染的反对都在侵蚀着中国的

成本优势。

China's leaders are moving to shift the economy away from its traditional

reliance on low-end manufacturing and heavy investment spending, seeking to

build a stronger consumer base at home. A breakdown of Wednesday's figures

suggests a tentative move in that direction: While foreign direct investment in

manufacturing contracted by 6.2% in 2012, investment in the service sector

excluding the property market rose 4.8%.

中国的令带着迅速从对传统低成本制造业和高投资的依赖中国转移出来，他们寻求建立一

个强劲的国内需求。周三FDI数字的降低暗示了这个可能的变动方向：当在制造业方面的

FDI减少6.2%的时候，服务业和资产方面的投资却增加了4.8%

"We know we can't keep relying on a low-cost competitive advantage. We need to

accelerate the value-added upgrading of our products," said Commerce Ministry

spokesman Shen Danyang at a news briefing Wednesday.
Mr. Shen acknowledged the trend of companies investing elsewhere, though he

attempted to play it down.
"We have noticed some migration by companies, but this is a normal migration.

It's not accurate to say there has been a large-scale shift of manufacturing

[foreign investment] to other countries," he said. But he added, "You couldn't

say we are happy to see this development. We still hope to actively attract

foreign investment."

我们知道我们不能一直依赖低成本的竞争力，我们需要促进我们的产品附加值的升级，商

务部发言人在周三的报告中如是说。
发言人承认这个趋势，但是也试图去减缓这个趋势.（就是制造业吸引不足这个趋势）。
“我们已经注意到一些公司向其他国家转移，但是这是一种正常的现象。但是说制造业（

外国投资）大规模的向其他转移，这种说法是不准确的，”他如此说道。但是他又补充说

道，“但是你又不能说我们乐于见到这种情况的发生。我们任然希望吸引更多的外国投资

。”

Commerce Minister Chen Deming on Tuesday gave a tepid forecast for investment

in 2013, saying it will likely be about the same as last year.
China's foreign-investment data come with some uncertainty. Another set of

numbers from China's central bank that includes profits that foreign firms

reinvest there shows growth in the first nine months of 2012, according to an

analysis by Thilo Hanemann, research director at Rhodium Group. But the

figures, which he said may be subject to significant revisions, also show

investment growth close to zero over the past two years.

商务部部长程德明在周二给了一个温和的预期，说在2013年的国外投资和上一年差不多。
中国的外国投资数据有很多的不确定性，R集团的研究主任T.H分析说，另一组来自央行的

数据显示了2012年头九个月增长国外对中国投资的增长，央行的数据中包括了国外在华企

业利用自己利润的再投资。但是这个数据也有可能被大幅的修正，这也会显示中国的国外

投资过去两年增速趋近于0。

With the lion's share of investment in China now coming from domestic sources,

the impact of falling foreign investment on growth will be limited. But an

erosion of manufacturing's importance underlines the challenge for China's

leaders in finding new sources of growth in domestic consumption and higher-

level industry

由于现在最大的投资份额来自于的国内资金的投资，所以国外投资的减少影响力有限。但

是制造业的被侵蚀凸显了中国领导人在寻求国内转型内需和更高水平工业化过程中面临的

挑战。

For China's neighbors, the trend means more opportunities. Southeast Asian

nations, which claimed 2% of global foreign investment in the wake of the 1997

Asian financial crisis, now account for about 7.6%, approaching China's 8.1%,

according to HSBC calculations.
Asian firms accounted for much of the investment drop in China. Investment from

10 Asian economies—Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau, Japan, the Philippines, Thailand,

Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and South Korea—fell 4.8% last year and

accounted for about 82% of the total. Hong Kong was the single biggest

investor, reflecting in part money from mainland investors being recycled back

into the country.

对于中国的邻居而言，这个趋势却意味着更多的机会，根据汇丰统计，东南亚国家在1997

年从金融危机中苏醒过来的时候占世界FDI的2%，现在是7.6%，逼近了中国的8.1%。
亚洲公司占据了中国国外投资下跌的主要部分。来自香港、台湾、澳门、日本、菲律宾、

泰国、马来西亚、新加坡、印尼、南韩的对中国大陆的投资下降了4.8%，他们一起占据了

全部下降份额的82%。香港是中国大陆的最大投资来源地，显示出了中国大陆对香港投资资

金又重新回来投资大陆。

One country that could play a decisive role in speeding up the shift away from

China is Japan. Japanese investment into China rose 16% from a year earlier,

but worsening relations over a set of disputed islands could prompt Japanese

firms to look elsewhere. In September, Japanese businesses were ransacked by

rioters in anti-Japan protests across China.
Many Japanese companies are already looking for a second production base to

hedge their China exposure. For example, while foreign investment into Vietnam

declined by 15% in 2012, a reflection of macroeconomic challenges there such as

high inflation, investment from Japan into Vietnam more than doubled due in

part to Japanese companies' efforts to look for alternatives to China.

日本可能是在迅速撤离中国中起重要作用，日本上一年投资中国增加16%，然而由于岛屿争

端，促使日本投资者寻找别处，9月日本的企业被中国抗议者洗劫。
许多日本公司寻找第二个生产基础去对冲暴露在中国工厂的风险。比如2012年，由于越南

的宏观通胀的挑战，越南的FDI减少了15%，可是日本对越南的投资却增加100%以上，这是

因为部分日本公司在努力寻找中国的替身。

In Thailand and Vietnam, Japan was the single largest source of investment last

year. In Indonesia, it was second behind Singapore.
In an October survey of Japanese companies by the government-linked Japan

External Trade Organization, 52% of respondents planned to expand business

operations in China over the next one to two years, down from 67% in the survey

the previous year.
Yoichi Maie, director of Jetro's China and North Asia Division, said there were

several reasons for the decline, notably rising labor costs, and that political

tensions were not the most important factor.

在泰国和越南，去年日本是单一最大的投资来源，在印尼，日本是仅次于新加坡的第二大

投资来源。
在十月份，和政府相关的日本外贸机对日本公司的调查显示，52%的受调查者都计划在接下

来的两三年去中国拓展他们的企业生产，然而在上一年是67%。
YM，J公司中国和北亚分公司的经理，这个趋势的原因是，成本上升，政治紧张不是最重要

的因素

Mr. Maie also stressed that there are limits to the ability of Japanese

companies to diversify away from China. "There is no alternative to China for

Japanese companies," he said. "No other country—except for the U.S.States—

offers such a large market and highly established production networks."
A shift to other countries doesn't mean companies are abandoning China. In a

survey of about 300 members of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, 58%

said the country remains in the top three investment priorities, up from 47% in

2011. But only 20% said China was their No. 1 investment priority last year,

compared with 31% in 2011.
Many are also looking at moving from China's coastal manufacturing cities to

its lower-cost inland regions. A poll in May by the Federation of Hong Kong

Industries showed that about 10% of Hong Kong companies located in China's

Pearl River Delta are considering a move to Southeast Asia due to rising costs,

while 13% are considering moving to inland provinces.

M先生却强调说，离开中国分散投资对于日本公司来说能力有限。中国对于日本企业不可或

缺，他说道，除了美国，没有一个地方能提供这么大的消费市场以及高水平的生产网络。
转移到其他国家并不意味着放弃中国，在300个美国在华商业会所成员的调查中，58%的人

认为中国式前三位值得投资的国家，上一年是47%，然而只有20%的人认为中国式最佳投资

地，上一年是31%。
许多正在把制造业从沿海搬到内陆，一份香港工业联合组织5月份的调查显示，由于成本上

升大约10%的珠三角香港企业正在考虑去东南亚，13%的企业考虑去内陆省份。

HSBC economist Trinh Nguyen estimates that Chinese manufacturing wages rose by

around 20% per year between 2005 and 2011, giving companies a strong incentive

to start looking elsewhere for labor-intensive production.
"The total amount of capital flowing in China will be still robust, but the

growth will decelerate. The nature of [foreign investment] will become more

domestic-market-oriented than export-oriented," Ms. Nguyen said.
Not all of the shift out of China involves low-end industries such as garment-

making. Wintek Corp., a Taiwanese company with about 50,000 workers globally

that makes smartphone components for companies including Apple Inc., said in

October it will invest $930 million in four new plants in Vietnam to make

displays and touch screens.

汇丰经济学家TN估计中国的制造业工资从2005年到2011年，年均每年增长20%，这给了许多

公司一个寻找其他低劳动成本生产地的强烈刺激。
TN继续说，资本流入中国总量会仍然充沛，但是增速会放缓，国外投资的性质将会更加倾

向于内需主导型，而不是出头主导型。
并不是所有移出中国的企业都是做衣服一类的低端产业。W公司，一家台湾的企业，大约有

5W工人，生产智能手机零件，包括帮苹果公司生产。这家公司说，他们将会投资9.3亿美元

在越南新建一个生产显示器和触摸屏的工厂。

A Wintek spokesman said the company is still committed to expanding its

existing facilities in the southern Chinese city of Dongguan and the province

of Jiangsu, two traditional hubs for Chinese manufacturing. "To mitigate the

impact from rising labor and rental costs, we are producing more value-added

products in our Dongguan and Jiangsu factories," he said.

W公司的发言人说，他们将会仍然扩张他们在中国东莞和江苏的生产设施。为了去抵消劳动

力成本上升的影响，我们在广东和江苏的工厂生产更高附加值的产品。

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Mrc • 7 hours ago
anyone who has followed the news for years knew this was inevitable. you can

take any story about chinas cheap labor and cut out the word china and put in

the prior names like mexico and before them japan.
in the end america will become more competitive and foreign country workers

will demand a... More

任何人看这种新闻几年的人都知道，这种事情是不可逆转的，你能从中国的廉价劳动力得

到任何东西，然后把中国这个名字放在显眼的位置，就像以前的墨西哥，墨西哥之前的日

本一样。
最终，美国会变得更有竞争力，（因为）国外的工人要求的更多啦。

Asdf • 2 hours 2 minutes ago
This always happens. As the workers require higher salaries, the manufacturing

cost increases and new geographic areas are used. In the early days of the

semiconductor industry, Scotland was used for manufacturing. Once the costs

rose, the manufacturing was moved to other areas.

总是这样的，由于工人要求更高的工资，生产成本增加以及新的地方可供生产，在早期苏

格拉的半导体产业，一旦成本上升，这个生产就转移到了其他地方。

Marcm • 3 hours ago
When is GE moving to Vietnam?

什么时候通用转移到美国

EarthIsEllipsoidReally • 4 hours ago
Pretty soon US mfg. will be done in Afghanistan ...

很棒，不久美国的生产部门会在阿富汗

Anonymous • 5 hours ago
you know NOTHING about Afghanistan! There is NO infrastructure there. Even the

supply for the U.S. troops is sent in by borrowing the route from Pakistan and

other neighboring nations, and yes for a high price!.

回上：你都不知道阿富汗，那里啥子都没有，没有基础设施，美军在那里都要从巴基斯坦

和其他邻国借用道路。代价不低。

Wow • 1 hour 49 minutes ago
We need to find new slaves!

我们需要寻找新的奴隶

Moretrees Lessbush • 4 hours ago
There are still plenty of poor countries then can offer a vast supply of cheap

labor. I am seeing more and more goods made in countries like vietnam, india,

bangladesh, etc

仍然后很多贫困的国家能够提供廉价的劳动力，我看过越老越多来自越南、印度、孟加拉

的商品

Nanoskippy • 4 hours ago
Bangladesh - the former East Pakistan...perfect!!

孟加拉，前东巴基斯坦，漂亮！

Myanmar (Burma) used to be the second wealthiest country in Asia; the military

junta which has ruled for over 40 years brought that to an end, now it is the

poorest. Recently Myanmar has started to look towards the west, so guess where

these factories in China will be relocating?

缅甸曾今是亚洲第二富有的国家，军政府统治这个国家40年成了这般摸样，现在他们是最

贫困的，最近缅甸开始期待西方了，是不是中国的工厂也会迁到缅甸去呢？

William • 4 hours ago
But with China now as the number 2 in GDP and the Chinese high savings rate,

you can see that China has less and less a need for foreign money.

由于中国现在是世界第二大经济体，中国高的储蓄率导致他们越来越不需要外国的钱。

I'mthinking.. • 9 hours ago
veitnam? who would have thought? time to crack the books and do some research

越南？谁能想到啊，是时候扔掉书本开始做一些研究了。

Scott • 10 hours ago
If China's economy slows. Who is the U.S. goverment going to borrow money from?

假如中国经济放缓，美国政府找谁借钱？

D • 10 hours ago
A lot of those jobs are coming back home to America. It's nice to see more and

more products being stamped Made in U.S.A. This is only going to help the

economy recover much faster than it already is. The stock market being the

forward looking indicator is telling you this now. There has never been a

better time to invest in America!

许多工作正在回流美国，很高兴看到更多产品是美国制造，这帮助恢复经济更快，股票市

场正在高速你这些，现在投资美国再好不过了。

Wild • 5 hours ago
China sucks ..They want the people poor or rich..Very few in between.

操蛋的中国，他们想要自己的人民很穷或者很富，中产阶级少的可怜。

Thinker • 9 hours ago
Many Chinese companies are also setting up factories in Ethiopia, due to the

availability of low cost labor, also Ethiopia being highlands has huge

hydroelectric potential which is being developed to provide cheap electricity

for factories and export.

许多中国公司在埃塞俄比亚设立公司，因为那里有低廉的劳动力，埃塞俄比亚是高原，因

此可以水力发电，可以提供工厂廉价的电力，或者电力出口。

Michael • 10 hours ago
Quickly open up factories in burma, come on come on!
(walmart)

快在缅甸开工厂，快点苦点
（沃尔玛）

Deadkenny • 9 hours ago
It's been going on for five years ....this is news ? In certain manufacturing

categories , China is turning into Japan .....the parent company is located in

China with all manufacturing in Malaysia , Viet Nam , Laos and Sri Lanka . It's

just business and as globalism gets more entrenched the money just swirls

around looking for the next low cost home .

这已经持续五年了？（他说的是五年工资平均每年20%增长）在某些制造业领域，中国变成

了日本。母公司在中国，各种生产线先缅甸老挝斯里兰卡，这仅仅是生意，全球化只是追

求钱，是一个不断寻找低成本乐园的漩涡。

Freedom47 • 8 hours ago
your cheap viet product wil now be made with toxic water for you baby

food,,,dog food,,,cat food......green tasty water....

廉价的越南货将会带着毒水在你孩子你的狗你的猫的食物里，绿色美味的水啊

Dude, Where's My Job • 7 hours ago
still better than the china junks

回上：总比中国的垃圾要好

Down1users disliked this commentMushroom • 3 hours ago
Japan.. to Korea...China....whose next in this chain of cheap labor and human

misery? I am willing to pay a little more and not have as much choice in my

wardrobe. Other items, I can pay for quality manufacture in the USA, by

planning and saving for items needed first and wanted second.

日本→韩国→中国，谁是下一个廉价劳动力悲惨链条呢，我想要支付更多不买中国商品，

但是衣服方面做不到，在其他方面，我都是买有质量的美国货，想要什么先计划好，然后

再看自己需要的，然后再考虑想要的。

Brontotherium • 4 hours ago
Moral clarity dictates that China will soon become America’s most dangerous

enemy and that a total war with China is inevitable, Unfortunately, the looming

sequestration cuts to the military are just part of Obama’s evil plan to turn

America into a Stalinist state led by himself but controlled by China. The

current policy of appeasement towards China currently being pursued by our

Communist Appeaser in Chief along with the sequestration cuts will accelerate

America’s demise and herald the dawn of a new global dark age of communist

oppression.

道德上来说，中国将会变成美国最危险的敌人，中美全面战争不可避免。不幸的是，这个

即将削减的军事预算仅仅只是奥巴马邪恶计划的一部分，他想要把美国变成斯大林那样领

导的国度被他自己领导被中国控制。现行的对中国的绥靖政策是我们GCD员奥巴马先生做的

。军事削减将会促使美国灭亡，这也预示着全球即将进入新的黑暗共产主义压迫的佛晓。
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新闻地址：http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-begins-lose-edge-worlds-

021100834.html
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BEIJING—China is losing its competitive edge as a low-cost manufacturing base,

new data suggest, with makers of everything from handbags to shirts to basic

electronic components relocating to cheaper locales like Southeast Asia.

中国正在失去他在低成本制造业的竞争优势，新的数据显示，从手提包到寸衫到电子组件

的的制造商把他们的产地搬迁到东南亚的国家。

The shift—illustrated in weakened foreign investment in China—has pluses and

minuses for an economy key to global growth. Beijing wants to shift to higher-

value production and to see incomes rise. But a de-emphasis on manufacturing

puts pressure on leaders to make sure jobs are created in other sectors to keep

the world's No. 2 economy humming.

这个对全世界经济产生重大影响的转移说明了对中国的投资在减弱，北京想要生产高附加

值的产品想要看到收入增长。但是不重视制造业会给领导一些压力，这些压力就是确保在

其他行业能创造出就业来确保这个世界第二经济体的繁荣。

Total foreign direct investment flowing into China fell 3.7% in 2012 to $111.72

billion, the Ministry of Commerce said Wednesday, the first annual decline

since the fallout from the global financial crisis in 2009.
Then, a 13% fall in foreign investment into China reflected dire conditions for

business in the U.S. and Europe, and global risk aversion, which choked off

capital flows. Economists say the drop in 2012 is also partly cyclical, driven

by slowing overall growth in China and Europe's prolonged debt crisis.

外国直接投资（FDI）的总量减少了3.7%，为1117.2亿美元，中国商务部在周三如是说，这

是从2009年景荣危机以来第一次外国直接投资（FDI）的降低。
还有，外资投资中国的下降了13%（和之前的FDI不同）反映了欧美可怕的经济情况，以及

全球性的风险厌恶，（投资者有风险偏好和风险厌恶之分，经济不好的情况下风险厌恶的

人会增多）这也阻碍了资金的流动。经济学家说，2012年的这个降低部分也是因为周期性

的原因，因为这个时候中国经济放缓和欧债危机的持续。

But it also is the result of a long-term trend of rising wages and other costs

that have made China less attractive, especially for basic manufacturing,

economists say.
By contrast, foreign direct investment into Indonesia was up 27% in the first

nine months of last year.
Coronet SpA, an Italian maker of synthetic leather with production in the

southern Chinese province of Guangdong, plans a new factory in Vietnam to take

advantage of lower labor costs and to be closer to its customers in the shoe

and handbag businesses, many of which have already moved there.

同时经济学家们也说，这种情况（FDI降低）也是由于长期的工资他其他成本的上升趋势导

致了中国失去吸引力，特别是在基础制造业方面。
相反地，上一年前9个月国外对印尼的直接投资上升了27%
例如SPA，一家在中国广东的合成皮革制造商，计划在越南开办新厂，充分利用（越南）的

低价劳动力的优势，同时靠近需要消耗皮革的鞋子手袋制造商，许多鞋子手袋制造商已经

搬到了越南

"A lot of our customers are already moving a part of their business in Far

Eastern countries with lower working cost," said Jarno Tagliarini, Coronet

chief executive. "Considering all the countries available, we think that

Vietnam is the most developed one."
Foreign capital helped build China into a low-cost manufacturing powerhouse and

global growth engine. But its increasingly urban population now has higher

expectations in terms of wages and working conditions and louder objections to

the pollution that often comes with low-level manufacturing—demands that have

eroded China's cost advantage.

许多消耗我们皮革的人已经把他们的生意转移到了远东国家，首席执行官Jamo Tagliarini

说道。我们想了一下所有可能去的国家之后，我们觉得越南最合适。
国外的资金帮助中国成为了低附加值制造业王国，也成了全球经济发展的引擎，但是持续

的城市化出现了对高工资的期待，对工作环境的要求对环境污染的反对都在侵蚀着中国的

成本优势。

China's leaders are moving to shift the economy away from its traditional

reliance on low-end manufacturing and heavy investment spending, seeking to

build a stronger consumer base at home. A breakdown of Wednesday's figures

suggests a tentative move in that direction: While foreign direct investment in

manufacturing contracted by 6.2% in 2012, investment in the service sector

excluding the property market rose 4.8%.

中国的令带着迅速从对传统低成本制造业和高投资的依赖中国转移出来，他们寻求建立一

个强劲的国内需求。周三FDI数字的降低暗示了这个可能的变动方向：当在制造业方面的

FDI减少6.2%的时候，服务业和资产方面的投资却增加了4.8%

"We know we can't keep relying on a low-cost competitive advantage. We need to

accelerate the value-added upgrading of our products," said Commerce Ministry

spokesman Shen Danyang at a news briefing Wednesday.
Mr. Shen acknowledged the trend of companies investing elsewhere, though he

attempted to play it down.
"We have noticed some migration by companies, but this is a normal migration.

It's not accurate to say there has been a large-scale shift of manufacturing

[foreign investment] to other countries," he said. But he added, "You couldn't

say we are happy to see this development. We still hope to actively attract

foreign investment."

我们知道我们不能一直依赖低成本的竞争力，我们需要促进我们的产品附加值的升级，商

务部发言人在周三的报告中如是说。
发言人承认这个趋势，但是也试图去减缓这个趋势.（就是制造业吸引不足这个趋势）。
“我们已经注意到一些公司向其他国家转移，但是这是一种正常的现象。但是说制造业（

外国投资）大规模的向其他转移，这种说法是不准确的，”他如此说道。但是他又补充说

道，“但是你又不能说我们乐于见到这种情况的发生。我们任然希望吸引更多的外国投资

。”

Commerce Minister Chen Deming on Tuesday gave a tepid forecast for investment

in 2013, saying it will likely be about the same as last year.
China's foreign-investment data come with some uncertainty. Another set of

numbers from China's central bank that includes profits that foreign firms

reinvest there shows growth in the first nine months of 2012, according to an

analysis by Thilo Hanemann, research director at Rhodium Group. But the

figures, which he said may be subject to significant revisions, also show

investment growth close to zero over the past two years.

商务部部长程德明在周二给了一个温和的预期，说在2013年的国外投资和上一年差不多。
中国的外国投资数据有很多的不确定性，R集团的研究主任T.H分析说，另一组来自央行的

数据显示了2012年头九个月增长国外对中国投资的增长，央行的数据中包括了国外在华企

业利用自己利润的再投资。但是这个数据也有可能被大幅的修正，这也会显示中国的国外

投资过去两年增速趋近于0。

With the lion's share of investment in China now coming from domestic sources,

the impact of falling foreign investment on growth will be limited. But an

erosion of manufacturing's importance underlines the challenge for China's

leaders in finding new sources of growth in domestic consumption and higher-

level industry

由于现在最大的投资份额来自于的国内资金的投资，所以国外投资的减少影响力有限。但

是制造业的被侵蚀凸显了中国领导人在寻求国内转型内需和更高水平工业化过程中面临的

挑战。

For China's neighbors, the trend means more opportunities. Southeast Asian

nations, which claimed 2% of global foreign investment in the wake of the 1997

Asian financial crisis, now account for about 7.6%, approaching China's 8.1%,

according to HSBC calculations.
Asian firms accounted for much of the investment drop in China. Investment from

10 Asian economies—Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau, Japan, the Philippines, Thailand,

Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and South Korea—fell 4.8% last year and

accounted for about 82% of the total. Hong Kong was the single biggest

investor, reflecting in part money from mainland investors being recycled back

into the country.

对于中国的邻居而言，这个趋势却意味着更多的机会，根据汇丰统计，东南亚国家在1997

年从金融危机中苏醒过来的时候占世界FDI的2%，现在是7.6%，逼近了中国的8.1%。
亚洲公司占据了中国国外投资下跌的主要部分。来自香港、台湾、澳门、日本、菲律宾、

泰国、马来西亚、新加坡、印尼、南韩的对中国大陆的投资下降了4.8%，他们一起占据了

全部下降份额的82%。香港是中国大陆的最大投资来源地，显示出了中国大陆对香港投资资

金又重新回来投资大陆。

One country that could play a decisive role in speeding up the shift away from

China is Japan. Japanese investment into China rose 16% from a year earlier,

but worsening relations over a set of disputed islands could prompt Japanese

firms to look elsewhere. In September, Japanese businesses were ransacked by

rioters in anti-Japan protests across China.
Many Japanese companies are already looking for a second production base to

hedge their China exposure. For example, while foreign investment into Vietnam

declined by 15% in 2012, a reflection of macroeconomic challenges there such as

high inflation, investment from Japan into Vietnam more than doubled due in

part to Japanese companies' efforts to look for alternatives to China.

日本可能是在迅速撤离中国中起重要作用，日本上一年投资中国增加16%，然而由于岛屿争

端，促使日本投资者寻找别处，9月日本的企业被中国抗议者洗劫。
许多日本公司寻找第二个生产基础去对冲暴露在中国工厂的风险。比如2012年，由于越南

的宏观通胀的挑战，越南的FDI减少了15%，可是日本对越南的投资却增加100%以上，这是

因为部分日本公司在努力寻找中国的替身。

In Thailand and Vietnam, Japan was the single largest source of investment last

year. In Indonesia, it was second behind Singapore.
In an October survey of Japanese companies by the government-linked Japan

External Trade Organization, 52% of respondents planned to expand business

operations in China over the next one to two years, down from 67% in the survey

the previous year.
Yoichi Maie, director of Jetro's China and North Asia Division, said there were

several reasons for the decline, notably rising labor costs, and that political

tensions were not the most important factor.

在泰国和越南，去年日本是单一最大的投资来源，在印尼，日本是仅次于新加坡的第二大

投资来源。
在十月份，和政府相关的日本外贸机对日本公司的调查显示，52%的受调查者都计划在接下

来的两三年去中国拓展他们的企业生产，然而在上一年是67%。
YM，J公司中国和北亚分公司的经理，这个趋势的原因是，成本上升，政治紧张不是最重要

的因素

Mr. Maie also stressed that there are limits to the ability of Japanese

companies to diversify away from China. "There is no alternative to China for

Japanese companies," he said. "No other country—except for the U.S.States—

offers such a large market and highly established production networks."
A shift to other countries doesn't mean companies are abandoning China. In a

survey of about 300 members of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, 58%

said the country remains in the top three investment priorities, up from 47% in

2011. But only 20% said China was their No. 1 investment priority last year,

compared with 31% in 2011.
Many are also looking at moving from China's coastal manufacturing cities to

its lower-cost inland regions. A poll in May by the Federation of Hong Kong

Industries showed that about 10% of Hong Kong companies located in China's

Pearl River Delta are considering a move to Southeast Asia due to rising costs,

while 13% are considering moving to inland provinces.

M先生却强调说，离开中国分散投资对于日本公司来说能力有限。中国对于日本企业不可或

缺，他说道，除了美国，没有一个地方能提供这么大的消费市场以及高水平的生产网络。
转移到其他国家并不意味着放弃中国，在300个美国在华商业会所成员的调查中，58%的人

认为中国式前三位值得投资的国家，上一年是47%，然而只有20%的人认为中国式最佳投资

地，上一年是31%。
许多正在把制造业从沿海搬到内陆，一份香港工业联合组织5月份的调查显示，由于成本上

升大约10%的珠三角香港企业正在考虑去东南亚，13%的企业考虑去内陆省份。

HSBC economist Trinh Nguyen estimates that Chinese manufacturing wages rose by

around 20% per year between 2005 and 2011, giving companies a strong incentive

to start looking elsewhere for labor-intensive production.
"The total amount of capital flowing in China will be still robust, but the

growth will decelerate. The nature of [foreign investment] will become more

domestic-market-oriented than export-oriented," Ms. Nguyen said.
Not all of the shift out of China involves low-end industries such as garment-

making. Wintek Corp., a Taiwanese company with about 50,000 workers globally

that makes smartphone components for companies including Apple Inc., said in

October it will invest $930 million in four new plants in Vietnam to make

displays and touch screens.

汇丰经济学家TN估计中国的制造业工资从2005年到2011年，年均每年增长20%，这给了许多

公司一个寻找其他低劳动成本生产地的强烈刺激。
TN继续说，资本流入中国总量会仍然充沛，但是增速会放缓，国外投资的性质将会更加倾

向于内需主导型，而不是出头主导型。
并不是所有移出中国的企业都是做衣服一类的低端产业。W公司，一家台湾的企业，大约有

5W工人，生产智能手机零件，包括帮苹果公司生产。这家公司说，他们将会投资9.3亿美元

在越南新建一个生产显示器和触摸屏的工厂。

A Wintek spokesman said the company is still committed to expanding its

existing facilities in the southern Chinese city of Dongguan and the province

of Jiangsu, two traditional hubs for Chinese manufacturing. "To mitigate the

impact from rising labor and rental costs, we are producing more value-added

products in our Dongguan and Jiangsu factories," he said.

W公司的发言人说，他们将会仍然扩张他们在中国东莞和江苏的生产设施。为了去抵消劳动

力成本上升的影响，我们在广东和江苏的工厂生产更高附加值的产品。

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Mrc • 7 hours ago
anyone who has followed the news for years knew this was inevitable. you can

take any story about chinas cheap labor and cut out the word china and put in

the prior names like mexico and before them japan.
in the end america will become more competitive and foreign country workers

will demand a... More

任何人看这种新闻几年的人都知道，这种事情是不可逆转的，你能从中国的廉价劳动力得

到任何东西，然后把中国这个名字放在显眼的位置，就像以前的墨西哥，墨西哥之前的日

本一样。
最终，美国会变得更有竞争力，（因为）国外的工人要求的更多啦。

Asdf • 2 hours 2 minutes ago
This always happens. As the workers require higher salaries, the manufacturing

cost increases and new geographic areas are used. In the early days of the

semiconductor industry, Scotland was used for manufacturing. Once the costs

rose, the manufacturing was moved to other areas.

总是这样的，由于工人要求更高的工资，生产成本增加以及新的地方可供生产，在早期苏

格拉的半导体产业，一旦成本上升，这个生产就转移到了其他地方。

Marcm • 3 hours ago
When is GE moving to Vietnam?

什么时候通用转移到美国

EarthIsEllipsoidReally • 4 hours ago
Pretty soon US mfg. will be done in Afghanistan ...

很棒，不久美国的生产部门会在阿富汗

Anonymous • 5 hours ago
you know NOTHING about Afghanistan! There is NO infrastructure there. Even the

supply for the U.S. troops is sent in by borrowing the route from Pakistan and

other neighboring nations, and yes for a high price!.

回上：你都不知道阿富汗，那里啥子都没有，没有基础设施，美军在那里都要从巴基斯坦

和其他邻国借用道路。代价不低。

Wow • 1 hour 49 minutes ago
We need to find new slaves!

我们需要寻找新的奴隶

Moretrees Lessbush • 4 hours ago
There are still plenty of poor countries then can offer a vast supply of cheap

labor. I am seeing more and more goods made in countries like vietnam, india,

bangladesh, etc

仍然后很多贫困的国家能够提供廉价的劳动力，我看过越老越多来自越南、印度、孟加拉

的商品

Nanoskippy • 4 hours ago
Bangladesh - the former East Pakistan...perfect!!

孟加拉，前东巴基斯坦，漂亮！

Myanmar (Burma) used to be the second wealthiest country in Asia; the military

junta which has ruled for over 40 years brought that to an end, now it is the

poorest. Recently Myanmar has started to look towards the west, so guess where

these factories in China will be relocating?

缅甸曾今是亚洲第二富有的国家，军政府统治这个国家40年成了这般摸样，现在他们是最

贫困的，最近缅甸开始期待西方了，是不是中国的工厂也会迁到缅甸去呢？

William • 4 hours ago
But with China now as the number 2 in GDP and the Chinese high savings rate,

you can see that China has less and less a need for foreign money.

由于中国现在是世界第二大经济体，中国高的储蓄率导致他们越来越不需要外国的钱。

I'mthinking.. • 9 hours ago
veitnam? who would have thought? time to crack the books and do some research

越南？谁能想到啊，是时候扔掉书本开始做一些研究了。

Scott • 10 hours ago
If China's economy slows. Who is the U.S. goverment going to borrow money from?

假如中国经济放缓，美国政府找谁借钱？

D • 10 hours ago
A lot of those jobs are coming back home to America. It's nice to see more and

more products being stamped Made in U.S.A. This is only going to help the

economy recover much faster than it already is. The stock market being the

forward looking indicator is telling you this now. There has never been a

better time to invest in America!

许多工作正在回流美国，很高兴看到更多产品是美国制造，这帮助恢复经济更快，股票市

场正在高速你这些，现在投资美国再好不过了。

Wild • 5 hours ago
China sucks ..They want the people poor or rich..Very few in between.

操蛋的中国，他们想要自己的人民很穷或者很富，中产阶级少的可怜。

Thinker • 9 hours ago
Many Chinese companies are also setting up factories in Ethiopia, due to the

availability of low cost labor, also Ethiopia being highlands has huge

hydroelectric potential which is being developed to provide cheap electricity

for factories and export.

许多中国公司在埃塞俄比亚设立公司，因为那里有低廉的劳动力，埃塞俄比亚是高原，因

此可以水力发电，可以提供工厂廉价的电力，或者电力出口。

Michael • 10 hours ago
Quickly open up factories in burma, come on come on!
(walmart)

快在缅甸开工厂，快点苦点
（沃尔玛）

Deadkenny • 9 hours ago
It's been going on for five years ....this is news ? In certain manufacturing

categories , China is turning into Japan .....the parent company is located in

China with all manufacturing in Malaysia , Viet Nam , Laos and Sri Lanka . It's

just business and as globalism gets more entrenched the money just swirls

around looking for the next low cost home .

这已经持续五年了？（他说的是五年工资平均每年20%增长）在某些制造业领域，中国变成

了日本。母公司在中国，各种生产线先缅甸老挝斯里兰卡，这仅仅是生意，全球化只是追

求钱，是一个不断寻找低成本乐园的漩涡。

Freedom47 • 8 hours ago
your cheap viet product wil now be made with toxic water for you baby

food,,,dog food,,,cat food......green tasty water....

廉价的越南货将会带着毒水在你孩子你的狗你的猫的食物里，绿色美味的水啊

Dude, Where's My Job • 7 hours ago
still better than the china junks

回上：总比中国的垃圾要好

Down1users disliked this commentMushroom • 3 hours ago
Japan.. to Korea...China....whose next in this chain of cheap labor and human

misery? I am willing to pay a little more and not have as much choice in my

wardrobe. Other items, I can pay for quality manufacture in the USA, by

planning and saving for items needed first and wanted second.

日本→韩国→中国，谁是下一个廉价劳动力悲惨链条呢，我想要支付更多不买中国商品，

但是衣服方面做不到，在其他方面，我都是买有质量的美国货，想要什么先计划好，然后

再看自己需要的，然后再考虑想要的。

Brontotherium • 4 hours ago
Moral clarity dictates that China will soon become America’s most dangerous

enemy and that a total war with China is inevitable, Unfortunately, the looming

sequestration cuts to the military are just part of Obama’s evil plan to turn

America into a Stalinist state led by himself but controlled by China. The

current policy of appeasement towards China currently being pursued by our

Communist Appeaser in Chief along with the sequestration cuts will accelerate

America’s demise and herald the dawn of a new global dark age of communist

oppression.

道德上来说，中国将会变成美国最危险的敌人，中美全面战争不可避免。不幸的是，这个

即将削减的军事预算仅仅只是奥巴马邪恶计划的一部分，他想要把美国变成斯大林那样领

导的国度被他自己领导被中国控制。现行的对中国的绥靖政策是我们GCD员奥巴马先生做的

。军事削减将会促使美国灭亡，这也预示着全球即将进入新的黑暗共产主义压迫的佛晓。