变质的美俄关系威胁着奥巴马的外交政策

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尽管奥巴马总统在第一个任期里试图与关系极度恶化的俄罗斯重新修好,但最近几个月美国和俄罗斯之间令人恶心的关系,却反映了奥巴马总统的那些政策有多么的失败。这样的关系也动摇了他第二个任期外交政策的根基。转自龙腾网。链接:http://www.ltaaa.com/wtfy/7285.html

原文地址:http://js.washingtonpost.com/wor ... c3ad15_story_1.html
原创翻译:龙腾网 www.ltaaa.com 翻译:erhuoheshang 转载请注明出处
正文翻译:
原创翻译:龙腾网 www.ltaaa.com 翻译:erhuoheshang 转载请注明出处
本帖论坛地址:http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-131990-1-1.html

A poisonous unraveling of U.S. relations with Russia in recent months representsmore than the failure of President Obama’s first-term attempt to “reset” badlyfrayed bilateral relations. It threatens pillars of Obama’s second-term foreignpolicy agenda as well.

尽管奥巴马总统在第一个任期里试图与关系极度恶化的俄罗斯重新修好,但最近几个月美国和俄罗斯之间令人恶心的关系,却反映了奥巴马总统的那些政策有多么的失败。这样的关系也动摇了他第二个任期外交政策的根基。

From Syriaand Iran to North Korea and Afghanistan, Russian PresidentVladimir Putin holds cards that he can use to help or hurt Obama administrationobjectives.

从叙利亚和伊朗到朝鲜和阿富汗,俄罗斯总统手里握着一堆可以和奥巴马政府进行攻防的好牌

Obama badly needs Russian help to get U.S. troops and gear out of landlocked Afghanistan.He also wants Russian cooperation — or at least a quiet agreement not tointerfere — on other international fronts.

奥巴马非常需要俄罗斯的帮助,将深陷阿富汗的美军从那里撤出。在其他国际热点问题上,他也需要俄罗斯的合作,至少希望俄罗斯不要干涉添乱。

Putin, however, appears to see littlereason to help. Since his election last year to a third term as president, hispolitical stock has risen among many Russians as he has confronted the West,and the United Statesin particular. The pro-democracy street demonstrations of a year ago haveevaporated, leaving the former KGB officer in clear control.

而普京好像不以为然。自从他去年赢得第三个总统任期,他的在俄罗斯民众中的政治根基因其对西方特别是美国的强硬而得到了很好提升。去年的那些支持民主的YX现在已经消失得无影无踪。这个前克格勃的长官(普金)已经完全掌控了国内局面。

In December, both countries passedpunitive laws that capped a year of deteriorating relations. A U.S. lawtargeting Russia’s human rights record and atit-for-tat law banning American adoption of Russian children reflecteddomestic politics and national chauvinism, and they reinforced many of theworst suspicions that each nation holds about the other.

在去年十二月,两国都用法律的方式来惩戒对手,给去年这个关系恶化年盖棺定论。美国出台了针对俄罗斯人权纪录的法律,而俄罗斯也针尖对麦芒,搞了一个禁止美国人收养俄罗斯儿童的法律。这显示了俄罗斯的国内政治状况和国家沙文主义。两国对对方都有一些固执己见的疑惑,而双方的这些行动让这些强烈的疑心又上升到了另一个层次

The low point puts Obama in theuncomfortable position of deciding how far to bend to appease Putin, who beganhis tenure last spring by snubbing Obama’s invitation for an Oval Office visit.

这样一个关系的冰点让奥巴马怀着不安的状态来决策究竟得退让到少才能安抚普京。要知道普京去年春天上任之时,断然拒绝了奥巴马邀请他到白宫总统办公室和他喝喝茶的邀请。

Obama has long been expected to visit Russia thisyear, although no summit has been scheduled.

今年奥巴马一直就很想和普京会面,虽然这个到目前为止还是没影儿的事。

“The real question for Putin and Obamais, putting aside the issues on which they are just bound to disagree — likedemocracy and Syria — what are the issues that matter to them on which they cancooperate?” said Stephen Sestanovich, a Russia expert at the Council on ForeignRelations. “The likelihood is that over the next term, for both of them, thatis likely to be a shorter list than it was in the past four years.”

外交关系协会的俄罗斯问题专家Stephen Sestanovich表示:“关键在于普京和奥巴马需要放下那些双方都肯定不会达成一致的问题,比如说民主和叙利亚,然后好好想想,他们两个到底在哪些事情上可以合作一下?对于这个问题,可以说在他们两个的下个任期中,能够找到的答案很可能要比四年前要少。”

Limited leverage

作用有限

Like the United States, Russiaholds a veto in the U.N. Security Council, and its membership in otherdiplomatic clubs confers outsize international clout to the former superpower.

和美国一样,俄罗斯在联合国案例会上也有否决权。而俄国在其他外交组织中的国际影响力,比前苏联还要强。(译者:估计作者觉得前苏联的国际参与度要比俄罗斯弱,所以现在的俄罗斯的声音在国际上反而更大。)

By saying no, Putin can stymie U.S.goals in matters far beyond his own shores — and far removed from Russia’s long-standingbeef with the United States over the latter’s plans to erect a missile defenseshield in Europe.

美国希望在远离美国的欧洲建立一套针对反导系统,俄罗斯之前也因此和美国一直发牢骚。现在通过和美国唱反调,普金就可以从中作梗。

U.S. leverage is limited. Obama is unlikely toeither drop the missile defense plan or revisit steps that have easedcommercial trade between both nations. Russia appears less swayed by theprospect of arms-control concessions than in the past.

美国的影响力是有限的。美国既不可能放弃反导计划,也不可能在削弱两国贸易方面走回头路。而与过去相比,俄罗斯不会被未来军控的让步而弄得非常摇摆不定。

From Russia’sperspective, Obama has ignored or overridden its concerns on two major issues —missile defense and the military intervention in Libya. Both instances contributedto the Russian perception that the United States’ main leverage is itsability to roll over friends and foes alike.

从俄罗斯的角度来看,奥巴马忽视或者拒绝关注两个主要问题——反导和利比亚的武力干涉。美国的这两个立场让俄罗斯人觉得美国在运用他的手段将朋友和敌人都玩弄与股掌之间。

No U.S.president since Ronald Reagan has had a better relationship with Russiain his second term than in the first, Sestanovich said. But none has startedthe second with as deep and recent a setback as the harsh exchanges ofDecember.

Sestanovich表示,从里根总统开始,没有一个美国总统的第二个任期的美俄关系会比他的第一任期要好。但是也没有一个总统会在第二任期里,遇到像去年十二月那样棘手而富有挫败感的美俄关系。尽管奥巴马总统在第一个任期里试图与关系极度恶化的俄罗斯重新修好,但最近几个月美国和俄罗斯之间令人恶心的关系,却反映了奥巴马总统的那些政策有多么的失败。这样的关系也动摇了他第二个任期外交政策的根基。转自龙腾网。链接:http://www.ltaaa.com/wtfy/7285.html

原文地址:http://js.washingtonpost.com/wor ... c3ad15_story_1.html
原创翻译:龙腾网 www.ltaaa.com 翻译:erhuoheshang 转载请注明出处
正文翻译:
原创翻译:龙腾网 www.ltaaa.com 翻译:erhuoheshang 转载请注明出处
本帖论坛地址:http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-131990-1-1.html

A poisonous unraveling of U.S. relations with Russia in recent months representsmore than the failure of President Obama’s first-term attempt to “reset” badlyfrayed bilateral relations. It threatens pillars of Obama’s second-term foreignpolicy agenda as well.

尽管奥巴马总统在第一个任期里试图与关系极度恶化的俄罗斯重新修好,但最近几个月美国和俄罗斯之间令人恶心的关系,却反映了奥巴马总统的那些政策有多么的失败。这样的关系也动摇了他第二个任期外交政策的根基。

From Syriaand Iran to North Korea and Afghanistan, Russian PresidentVladimir Putin holds cards that he can use to help or hurt Obama administrationobjectives.

从叙利亚和伊朗到朝鲜和阿富汗,俄罗斯总统手里握着一堆可以和奥巴马政府进行攻防的好牌

Obama badly needs Russian help to get U.S. troops and gear out of landlocked Afghanistan.He also wants Russian cooperation — or at least a quiet agreement not tointerfere — on other international fronts.

奥巴马非常需要俄罗斯的帮助,将深陷阿富汗的美军从那里撤出。在其他国际热点问题上,他也需要俄罗斯的合作,至少希望俄罗斯不要干涉添乱。

Putin, however, appears to see littlereason to help. Since his election last year to a third term as president, hispolitical stock has risen among many Russians as he has confronted the West,and the United Statesin particular. The pro-democracy street demonstrations of a year ago haveevaporated, leaving the former KGB officer in clear control.

而普京好像不以为然。自从他去年赢得第三个总统任期,他的在俄罗斯民众中的政治根基因其对西方特别是美国的强硬而得到了很好提升。去年的那些支持民主的YX现在已经消失得无影无踪。这个前克格勃的长官(普金)已经完全掌控了国内局面。

In December, both countries passedpunitive laws that capped a year of deteriorating relations. A U.S. lawtargeting Russia’s human rights record and atit-for-tat law banning American adoption of Russian children reflecteddomestic politics and national chauvinism, and they reinforced many of theworst suspicions that each nation holds about the other.

在去年十二月,两国都用法律的方式来惩戒对手,给去年这个关系恶化年盖棺定论。美国出台了针对俄罗斯人权纪录的法律,而俄罗斯也针尖对麦芒,搞了一个禁止美国人收养俄罗斯儿童的法律。这显示了俄罗斯的国内政治状况和国家沙文主义。两国对对方都有一些固执己见的疑惑,而双方的这些行动让这些强烈的疑心又上升到了另一个层次

The low point puts Obama in theuncomfortable position of deciding how far to bend to appease Putin, who beganhis tenure last spring by snubbing Obama’s invitation for an Oval Office visit.

这样一个关系的冰点让奥巴马怀着不安的状态来决策究竟得退让到少才能安抚普京。要知道普京去年春天上任之时,断然拒绝了奥巴马邀请他到白宫总统办公室和他喝喝茶的邀请。

Obama has long been expected to visit Russia thisyear, although no summit has been scheduled.

今年奥巴马一直就很想和普京会面,虽然这个到目前为止还是没影儿的事。

“The real question for Putin and Obamais, putting aside the issues on which they are just bound to disagree — likedemocracy and Syria — what are the issues that matter to them on which they cancooperate?” said Stephen Sestanovich, a Russia expert at the Council on ForeignRelations. “The likelihood is that over the next term, for both of them, thatis likely to be a shorter list than it was in the past four years.”

外交关系协会的俄罗斯问题专家Stephen Sestanovich表示:“关键在于普京和奥巴马需要放下那些双方都肯定不会达成一致的问题,比如说民主和叙利亚,然后好好想想,他们两个到底在哪些事情上可以合作一下?对于这个问题,可以说在他们两个的下个任期中,能够找到的答案很可能要比四年前要少。”

Limited leverage

作用有限

Like the United States, Russiaholds a veto in the U.N. Security Council, and its membership in otherdiplomatic clubs confers outsize international clout to the former superpower.

和美国一样,俄罗斯在联合国案例会上也有否决权。而俄国在其他外交组织中的国际影响力,比前苏联还要强。(译者:估计作者觉得前苏联的国际参与度要比俄罗斯弱,所以现在的俄罗斯的声音在国际上反而更大。)

By saying no, Putin can stymie U.S.goals in matters far beyond his own shores — and far removed from Russia’s long-standingbeef with the United States over the latter’s plans to erect a missile defenseshield in Europe.

美国希望在远离美国的欧洲建立一套针对反导系统,俄罗斯之前也因此和美国一直发牢骚。现在通过和美国唱反调,普金就可以从中作梗。

U.S. leverage is limited. Obama is unlikely toeither drop the missile defense plan or revisit steps that have easedcommercial trade between both nations. Russia appears less swayed by theprospect of arms-control concessions than in the past.

美国的影响力是有限的。美国既不可能放弃反导计划,也不可能在削弱两国贸易方面走回头路。而与过去相比,俄罗斯不会被未来军控的让步而弄得非常摇摆不定。

From Russia’sperspective, Obama has ignored or overridden its concerns on two major issues —missile defense and the military intervention in Libya. Both instances contributedto the Russian perception that the United States’ main leverage is itsability to roll over friends and foes alike.

从俄罗斯的角度来看,奥巴马忽视或者拒绝关注两个主要问题——反导和利比亚的武力干涉。美国的这两个立场让俄罗斯人觉得美国在运用他的手段将朋友和敌人都玩弄与股掌之间。

No U.S.president since Ronald Reagan has had a better relationship with Russiain his second term than in the first, Sestanovich said. But none has startedthe second with as deep and recent a setback as the harsh exchanges ofDecember.

Sestanovich表示,从里根总统开始,没有一个美国总统的第二个任期的美俄关系会比他的第一任期要好。但是也没有一个总统会在第二任期里,遇到像去年十二月那样棘手而富有挫败感的美俄关系。
只能说 这2国从冷战开始 谁也没有对谁好过 所以说这2国的关系永远无解。
谁叫普京上台时,西方如此恶心他,国家层面也就算了,后来,都开始攻击个人了,按毛子的操性,不恶心回来是不可能的。
奥斑马的能耐也就那样了 要不再派个时装设计师当俄国大使拉拉关系