【龙腾】可怕的前景，中国东海战争(长篇巨作)

The gloomiest man in Canberra, Australia’s noted strategic expert Hugh White, has added a new edge to his warning about possible war between the United States and China.  He now suggests that precisely such a conflict could arise from the sustained tensions between Beijing and Tokyo over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea, and perhaps as soon as 2013.

堪培拉最悲观的人，澳大利亚著名战略专家Hugh White发出警告，中美发生战争的可能性上升到了新的高度.据他进一步预测，也许最快就在2013年，由于中日争夺钓鱼岛的持续紧张局势最终有可能引发冲突。

White makes an important point. He is correct to highlight the perverse contradictions of the world’s three richest countries being willing to risk peace and prosperity over something so seemingly trivial as contested maritime boundaries. He is right also to emphasize that this is not really about proximate causes  — the dispute over who owns certain rocks and islets and the potentially resource-rich seas around.

White提出了一个很正确的观点：三个全球最富有国家孤注一掷，将和平和繁荣押注在一些微不足道的争议海岸线上面。他还强调：这还不是真正的直接原因 - （真正的原因是）这些岩石，小岛以及周边潜在丰富资源的主权的争议。

Instead, the tensions and even confrontation of the past few months reflect deeper anxieties in China-Japan and ultimately China-America relations. These Professor White relates to the structural causes of the ruinous Peloponnesian Wars of the 5th century BC: power, pride and fear.

过去几个月的紧张局势甚至是对抗折射了中日关系 - 最终是中美关系之间的深深的焦虑。White教授把这些联系到引发毁灭性的伯罗奔尼撒战争的结构性原因：力量，骄傲和恐惧。

And it's true that tensions have been rising: a catalogue of naval and even aerial incidents, between two North Asian powers with deep mistrust and a poor record of operational communications and crisis management. Leadership changes in both nations have played into what has been widely perceived as a spirit of mutual intransigence.

事实上紧张局势一直在升级：两个互不信任交恶已久的北亚国家之间不断爆发海上甚至空中事件。两国的领导换届也被广泛认为是一种互不妥协的精神。

And yet, projecting a near-term future involving a potentially full-scale war between China and Japan, with the United States drawn in, remains a big call indeed.

估计不远的将来，中日将卷入一场潜在的全面战争，美国是否卷入，仍然是一个悬念。

To be sure, the Obama Administration must be feeling frustration that its strategy of a much-touted "pivot" back to Asia has been thrown somewhat awry by Japan’s unexpected acquisition of three of the Senkaku islands in September.

可以肯定的是，奥巴马政府肯定非常沮丧，因为他备受吹捧的的重返亚洲战略被日本意外收购尖阁诸岛而打乱。

The pivot or rebalancing was about the United States reemphasizing its very large strategic and diplomatic investment in the Asian security order in the face of China’s 2010-11 phase of assertiveness. In so doing, Washington had succeeded in reassuring its Asian allies and partners — but in Tokyo’s case, perhaps a little too much.

面对2010-2011年中国的雄心勃勃，美国亚洲安全秩序的大战略和外交侧重点是平衡和转移。华盛顿通过这样做成功地安慰了其亚洲盟国和合作伙伴 - 但是在东京看来，也许有点太多了。

Now the United States needs to focus as much on helping to manage, or at least not aggravate, Sino-Japanese tensions as on underscoring its support for the defense of Japan and other allies’ interests.

现在，美国需要集中精力尽可能多地去协调，至少不是去加剧中日的紧张局势，同时加强其对日本防卫的和其他盟国利益的支持。

But the high-stakes worrying over East China Sea tensions is premised on the view that, as Professor White puts it, "the crisis will not stop by itself." He argues that one side or other, or both,  "will have to take positive steps to break the cycle of action and reaction."

东海紧张局势引发持续高度担忧的前提是，就像White教授说的，“ 危机不会自动终止。“ 他认为，一方或另一方，或者双方，“ 将不得不采取积极措施，打破这种作用和反作用的循环。“

Of course it would be folly to count on a prolonged crisis simply fizzling out. But both China and Japan are more than capable of strategic patience. Neither wants to force the issue in the immediate term. Each government has an interest in trying to exert greater control over the various institutional players — not just navies but also civilian maritime agencies — whose operational decisions could make the difference between calm and crisis.

当然，坐等这种长期危机消退是愚蠢的。但是，中日双方都是非常有战略耐心的。没有一方期望在短期内解决问题。双方政府都试图在各方面加强控制 - 不仅是海军，还有民用海事机构 -  它的操作方式区别于冷静和危机

The good news is that Japan’s newly-elected conservative Abe government has no pressing reason to pursue further provocation. And whatever its forceful rhetoric, the new Chinese leadership has little near-term incentive to prod Japan further; an armed confrontation with Japan that ended badly for China would be worse for the credibility of China’s leaders than no clash at all.

好消息是，日本新当选的保守党安倍政府并没有迫切地进行进一步的挑衅。虽然措辞依然强烈，中国的新领导者短期内也没有刺激日本；比起在对日冲突中以惨败收场，中国领导人还不如什么都不做。

Doubtless there will be a need for cool heads and assiduous incident-management in the months ahead. But considerably more likely than war in 2013 is the possibility that, for all their tough talk, all sides are already working quietly to engineer a decent interval after which they can resume some serious diplomacy.

毫无疑问，在未来数月双方都应该保持头脑冷静，谨慎行事。2013年，比起战争，更有可能发生的是，虽然言辞强硬，双方已经在默默工作，等待一个合适的时机来修复破损的外交。

Rory Medcalf directs the international security program at the Lowy Institute in Sydney and is a Diplomat contributor. He is a former diplomat, intelligence analyst and journalist whose work covers a wide spectrum of strategic and geopolitical issues in Indo-Pacific Asia. Follow him on twitter @Rory_Medcalf.

Rory Medcalf 指导了悉尼罗维研究所的国际安全项目，他是一个外交官撰稿人，同时也是个前外交官，情报分析员和记者，他的工作涵盖了印度-太平洋亚洲地区广泛的的战略和地缘政治问题。关注他的twitter @ Rory_Medcalf。
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Matt December 28, 2012 at 1:40 am
I believe it does a disservice to the effort to avoid war by constantly focusing on our own allies' response to China's provocations. If you wanted to convince a bully to stop pushing the victim would you mention the bogus excuse of the bully as if they were both to blame? No. Focus on the problem. There is simply no excuse for China to be seizing foreign territories for any reason. I'm afraid China will be more likely to escalate as long as this misconception exists and they do not see any consequences at all. If you really want peace you must confront the bully. It is better to confront early with strong words than later after violence is the only option. We are already at a point where violence is just a keystroke or trigger pull away. We are skipping the part where we have the best chance of peace. Big Uncle Sam should get mad and loud now before its too late to talk at all. Soft talk is provocative to bullies.

我认为，不断地把重点放在我们的盟友上不利于避免战争。如果你想说服暴徒停止伤害受害者，你会提到暴徒的虚假借口，好像双方都有错吗？ 回到问题上来。中国侵犯外国领土不需要任何借口任何原因。我担心中国会更容易被激怒，只要误解一直存在，他们没有看到任何结果。如果你真的想要和平，你必须于暴徒正面对质。越早语气越强硬越好，不然接下来就只能选择暴力了。现在冲突已经一触而发了。和平的最好时机已经错过了。强大的山姆大叔（US）应该立刻发飙并强烈谴责，否则就来不及说话了。说软话就是挑衅暴徒。

davida December 29, 2012 at 2:38 pm
matt, are u high or just plain stupid? i dont get the logic that china is the villain in the triology of drama-addled east asia territorial epic when japan currently has the goods. what about other disputes, e.g japan-russia, japan-rok, when japan literally has more legitimate claim over some remote, god-forsaken islands, but still got kicked in nads in both. no media have ever sensationalised those tensions , so much as to designate japan the " victim" status, or award " menace" to those gun toting, nad-kicking koreans or russians. it just seems one-sided or utter hypocratic.
so, mr, matt, if u are the smart penny, would u care to use sinophobia-addled brain to explain that?

Matt，你是喝高了或者就是傻瓜？我不明白，中国成了东亚混乱历史中的的小人，日本却容易的占有了这些岛屿。那么其他争议呢？日-俄，日-韩？当日本宣称对这些偏僻荒凉的岛屿拥有更合法的主权时，都被踢爆下体了。媒体从来都不披露这些事情，反过来却去强调日本是“受害者”，也没有“奖励”那些持枪，踢DD的韩国或俄罗斯的“威胁”。媒体都是片面的极度虚伪的。
所以，Matt先生，如果你聪明的五毛的话，介不介意用你那恐华-糊涂的大脑来解释一下?

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radiation always kills December 30, 2012 at 5:41 am
matt should read the very latest news before posting his diatribe….the latest news says that eight U.S. sailors serving on board the USS Ronald Reagan CVN-76 are now suing the Japs for radiation exposure during the March 2011 nuclear meltdown. The ghost of Fuku is still alive and well. So everybody please don't worry about non-existent threats. Worry about the latest news instead.

Matt在发表谩骂之前应该先看看最新新闻......最新消息，8名在“里根”号航母服役的美海军官兵正在起诉日本鬼子，原因是在2011年3月份的核泄漏中暴露。福气的幽灵仍然健在。所以请大家不要再担心不存在的威胁，还是担心最新新闻吧。

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Stache December 30, 2012 at 5:30 pm
Matt is not high and he is not stupid, as a matter of fact he is clearly right on this subject.  China is a bully and needs to be put in their place now by a forceful United States backing Japan, Vietnam, India, Philippines and others.  The bully will not step back while the United States sits on the sidelines and panders to them.  Japan is correct there is not dispute the islands are Japanese and China wants the rights to mine the sea bed, which they cannot do right now.  If Japan gives in so will every other country under the threat of the China bully.  This is one time to stand up and be counted.  So before anyone calls someone else stupid or high maybe you should clean the plexiglass off in your belly button so you can see where you are going.

Matt没喝高，也不是笨蛋，事实上他是正确的。中国是个暴徒，强大的美国应该回归日本，越南，印度，菲律宾和其他地方，把中国赶回家。若美国仍在作壁上观，暴徒是不会退缩的。日本是对的，毫无争议岛屿是日本的，中国想要的只是海床的开采权 - 中国现在还不会开采。如果日本屈服，所有国家都会处在中国的威胁之中。是时候站起来表明立场了。所以，在骂别人愚蠢或喝高了之前，先把肚脐上玻璃清理干净（译者：求更精准的翻译），看清楚了再说。

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nirvana December 31, 2012 at 4:57 pm
If China really cared about these islets, it would have been a piece of cake to have them, from 1945 to 1949. What state was Japan in from 1945 to 1949? Remember the "…and such minor islands as we determine" in the ultimatum to Japan, the ultimatum that Japan was forced to sign, after the horrors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, after capitulation, after humiliation. But the plain truth is that China never cared about "such minor islands", until recently, until UNCLOS and until nuclear subs need a safe passage.

如果中国真的关心这些小岛，那么在1945~1949年应该像保护一块蛋糕一样去保护它们。1945年至1949年日本是什么样的国家？记得对日最后通牒中“......这样的小岛屿我们决定归还日本“，这个通牒是日本在广岛和长崎的恐怖之后，投降之后，羞辱之后被迫签署的。但明摆着的事实是，中国从来不关心“这样的小岛屿”，直到最近，直到联合国海洋法公约，直到核潜艇需要一个安全通道。

I don't think that the nationalisation of the islets by the Japanese government has changed anything to the often mentioned status-quo agreed between China and Japan in 1972. As long as Japan does not erect any land mark, does not officially send people or put a garrison on the islands, does not drill for oil in the adjacent waters, it can not be accused of "raising the stake".

我认为日本对这些小岛的国有化会改变中日1972达成协议以来的现状。只要日本没有竖立任何地标，没有正式派人或进行驻军，没有在附近海域钻探石油，就不能被指责为“提高赌注”。

If this issue was to be settled in an international court, Japan's nationalisation of the islets would have absolutely no legal value. If this issue was to be settled by force, Japan's recent move would not give it any military advantage neither.

如果这个问题被递交国际法庭裁决，日本的国有化绝对没有任何法律价值。如果用武力来解决，日本最近的举动也不会有任何军事优势。。

China knows all this. However, by pretending to be tough, by facilitating riots in Beijing streets, the CCP is using the same tactic to convince its public that it still have the "mandate from Heaven".  The eunuchs of the Ming court are still among us. The question is whether they still have full control on the PLA.

中国心知肚明。所以，通过故作强硬，暗中推动北京街头的骚乱，中共使用相同的策略使民众相信它仍然有“天命”。明代宫廷的宦官仍然在我们中间。他们的问题是能否对解放军具有绝对的控制。

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Mitsuo No–Shita December 30, 2012 at 3:51 am
Yeah, Mr so-called "Door-Matt, what kinf of BS are you talking about?  China's provocations? You have Alheizmer disease or what? Or did you selectively forget the cause-and-effect basis of the matter where by Tokyo provoked China by "buying" over the islands thus changing the agreed status quo agreed in 1972 between the two countries? Don't try to talk like a age when so many dsicerning readers can tell you are wilfully writing to distort the truth and that you are nothing but a stupid low-life CIA sub-sub agent paid to malign China with your BS propaganda.

所谓的“Matt-门”先生-，你在说什么狗屁话？中国的挑衅？您有老年痴呆症还是什么？或者你是故意遗忘了物质的因果关系 - 是日本通过买岛激怒了中国，从而改变了1972年以来双方维持现状的协议。不要假装老成，挑剔的读者都能看出来你在故意歪曲事实真相，你不过是一个愚蠢的道德低下的用你的狗屁言论污蔑中国的CIA美分罢了。

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Alex December 30, 2012 at 11:08 am
Matt is a typical American; anybody who does not accept American hegemony is bad: China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, Syria, Venezuela, etc. etc. He knows no History, speaks no foreign language, do not travel abroad. He hates all he does not understand, don’t expect any decent reason from him. Just hate

马特是典型的美国人，在他看来任何不接受美国霸权的都是邪恶的：中国，俄罗斯，朝鲜，伊朗，叙利亚，委内瑞拉，等等，等等。他不懂历史，不会外语，不出国旅游。讨厌所有他不明白的，别指望他有任何像样的理由。他只会恨来恨去

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John LaChance December 28, 2012 at 3:45 am
Want to stop PLA aggression in the South China Sea and East China Sea? It's easy really. They're looking outwards right now, looking to expand. Make them look inwards.  Make them fear their own dissolution.

想阻止解放军侵略南海和东海吗？其实很简单。他们现在正在向外寻求扩张。让它们转向内部，让他们担心自己的分裂好了.

Start a "Free Tibet" rally. Support a Tibetan underground of Freedom Fighters. Make a movie about some heroic Tibetan fighting the communist take-over of his country. Then, make sure every Tibetan sees that movie. Make China the enemy with a rallying cry. Make China focus its gunsights inward again, as it begins to break apart one new country at a time.
Make the Uighurs in Xinjiang start seeing themselves as oppressed by the invading Han Chinese, who are slowly making them a minority in their own ethnic sphere. Make Inner Mongolia see its future better aligned with Outer Mongolia which, after all, is a more natural alignment for these ethnically identical peoples. Yes, make China realize that it shouldn't be concentrating on expanding outwards when it's falling apart.

开展“自由XZ”战斗。支持XZ的地下自由战士。制造一部XZ英雄英勇反抗gcd侵略的电影。然后，确保每个XZ人都能看到电影。让中国成为他们的敌人。让中国将枪口再次对准国内，总有一天它会分裂成一个新的国家.
让XJ的WWE人认为自己被汉族压迫，汉族在不断侵占分化他们的势力。让内蒙古认为它的未来在外蒙古，毕竟那里有他们的同类，更容易产生共鸣。就这样，让中国认识到，它不该忙于在对外扩张时，内部却在分裂。

After all that, make the Southeastern and Eastern coasts realize they're better off without these poor provinces sucking up their wealth in Beijing's communist-styled re-distribution schemes. Rich people won't object too much, as long as they secure contractual rights to resources in those provinces. Then break up the coast into three or more separate countries by fostering competition between them based on historical imperatives tied to their three major rivers.

最后，让东南和东部沿海省份意识到他们应该甩掉那些在共产主义分配方案下分享他们财富的贫困省份。富人不会怎么反对，只要确保他们在这些省份的资源的合同的安全。然后通过加剧他们基于三大河流的历史因素的竞争，把沿海分裂成3~4个以上独立的国家

Yes, you can stop China from its expansionist ideology by breaking it apart into manageable entities. Start with Tibet. Give Tibetans a hero besides the Dalai Lama. Not peace but war.

是的，你可以通过分裂中国来停止其扩张主义。从XZ开始。没有和平，只有战争。

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John Chan December 29, 2012 at 1:42 am
@john LaChance,
Heard of great firewall of China?   China government will keep Chinese people uneducated and poor.   It's easy to control uneducated and poor people.

@John LaChance,
听说过中国的防火墙吗？中国政府不想让她的人民受教育，变富。因为穷人和未受教育的人更容易控制。

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John Chan December 30, 2012 at 4:41 am
@John Chan the imposter,
No, never heard of great firewall of China, is it an anti F-22 system that can make F-22 as bright as fire in the sky?

@John Chan冒牌货  （译者：比较John LaChance ；百度了一下，貌似是陈祖泽，前香港官员）
没有，从来没听过的中国防火墙，它是一个可以监测F-22，让其无处藏身的系统吗？

I have heard the Neocon black information network that keep the westerners and their lackeys uneducated and poor, the 99% of the westerners and their lackeys even won’t complain when they got scammed by the

我听说过新保守主义黑色信息网络，它让西方人和他们的走狗得不到教育，保持贫困，99％的西方人和他们的走狗在被骗时甚至都不会抱怨。

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John LaChance December 30, 2012 at 11:46 am
John Chan, I thought you were an apologist for the Chinese government.  I'm very surprised how you worded your response to my suggestion that we break China up into 6 small countries.  Are you on our side?

陈祖泽先生，我想你是中国政府的维护者。但是你的-分-裂-中-国的言论让我非常吃惊。你是站在我们这边的吗？

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John Chan December 31, 2012 at 12:35 pm
@John LaChance,
How about break the USA into 6 small nations, like the Russian suggested, New England, New France, New Mexico, Southern Canada, New Africa, and New Siberia. Given the European bickering nature, once the disintegration starts, USA will be broken into more 50 tiny nations.

@John LaChance，
不如把美国分裂成6个小国家怎么样，就像俄罗斯的建议的，新英格兰，法国，墨西哥，加拿大，非洲和新西伯利亚。鉴于欧洲的的吵嘴文化，一旦开始瓦解，美国将被分解成超过50小国家。

James Hollifield December 28, 2012 at 3:49 am
My impression is that Beijing is still feeling that they have been wronged by Tokyo. They feel that they had lost face and lost rights.  Beijing is probably not going to settle the issue until they feel that they have somehow got even.

我的观点是，北京仍然感觉受到东京的不公正对待。他们认为自己丢了脸面和权利。北京不达目的是不会善罢甘休的。

Meanwhile, other third-party nations do not really want the dispute to be settled soon, as the dispute benefits them in many ways.
Even for Japan, an ongoing dispute can help Abe to conveniently increase military spending and even get the constitution changed.  So, Tokyo might not want to end the dispute soon, either.
Since everyone wants the dispute to continue and to draw people's attentions further, let's expect that some incidents (maybe big) will occur in 2013.

与此同时，其他第三世界国家也不会希望争议尽早解决的，因为争议在许多方面使他们受益。 即使对于日本，持续的纠纷可以帮助安倍方便地增加军费开支，甚至是改宪。因此，东京也不会希望尽早结束争端。
因此每个人都希望争端持续并进一步吸引注意力，让我们期待一些事件（也许很大）会在2013年发生。

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vic December 28, 2012 at 4:53 am
It is very simple for Japan to defuse the situation.  Ignoring Chinese warships and airplanes flying over the Senkaku is no skin off Japan's nose.  The Senkaku is very close to Taiwan (in fact, the islands were the fishing grounds of Taiwanese fishermen) that Japanese fighter planes could not get there in time to meet and challenge any Chinese plane.

日本要平息紧张局势非常简单。中国军舰和飞机飞越尖阁，但是日本仍然毫发未损，可以不予理会。尖阁列岛非常接近台湾
（其实，这些岛屿是台湾渔民的传统渔场），日本战机不能及时应对和挑战中方飞机。

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Anon December 29, 2012 at 2:13 am
Accept they did just recently. Your point is now rendered moot and you have egg on your face.

他们确实这样做了。你的观点毫无意义，你丢大人了。

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talking points December 28, 2012 at 7:29 am
PLA better have a good plan. must have an over 60% probablilty to win.if not, double the defense spending and make sure of it.

解放军的计划也许更好。他们必须保证有超过60%的胜率，否则就加倍国防开支来确保达到。

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Michael Turton December 28, 2012 at 9:05 am
War essentially became essentially  when the two Chinese governments both manufactured a claim to the Senkakus in 1971. Taipei is basically irrelevant, but Beijing, first by inventing the claim and then by rummaging through its history to create a faux background for it, has placed itself in a corner. This is not like the Peloponnesian War, but more like the terrible wars of the rise of France in the 17th-18th century, with its manufacture of faux claims to the territories of its neighbors while at the same time struggling to turn a kingdom into a state.

战争是不可避免的，1971年两个中国政府捏造了事实对钓鱼岛提出索取。台北基本上是不相关的，但是北京首先捏造事实提出要求，然后翻箱倒柜创建一个虚假的历史背景，让自己占有一席之地。这不像伯罗奔尼撒战争，更像17-18世纪法国的崛起时的恐怖战争，通过人为捏造对邻国的领土要求，从而将一个王国变成一个省。

It's high time that writers stopped pretending there is some equivalency between Tokyo and Beijing on this issue. As every map and text shows, between 1895 when Japan grabbed the islands and the late 1960s, when the potential for oil in the area was announced, both Taipei and Beijing considered the Senkakus to be Japanese and their own official maps used the Japanese names for them rather than the modern Diaoyutai. Only after 1970 did Beijing and Taipei begin claiming the Senkakus, and then linking them to its equally false claims to Taiwan and, just over the horizon, the coming public claim to Okinawa. Beijing isn't going to back away; it's going to double down, because what is going on isn't a "dispute" but naked territorial aggression. Japan is "provoking" China only in the sense that Benes "provoked" Hitler.
Michael Turton

撰稿者不要再假装中日在这个问题上同等了。每个地图和文件都显示，在1895年时日本掌控了这些岛屿，当20世纪60年代末宣布在该地区有潜在的石油时，台北和北京都认为尖阁列岛是日本的，他们自己的官方地图使用的也是日本的名字，而不是现代钓鱼台。到了1970年后，北京和台北才开始索取钓鱼岛，台湾，甚至是琉球。北京是不会回头的，这是双管齐下，因为正在发生的不是“争议”，而是赤裸裸的领土侵略。日本“挑衅”中国就如同“贝奈斯“招惹”希特勒。
Michael Turton
（PS：贝奈斯 - 捷克斯洛伐克外交部长，莫尼黑危机期间，试图拉拢英，法，苏等国抵抗希特勒，但是英法实行绥靖策略，为避免战争爆发，牺牲捷克斯洛伐克利益，将苏台德区割让纳粹德国。）

REPLY
ACT December 29, 2012 at 1:50 pm
@Michael Turton
i agree. This new law that allows the PRC maritime authorities to sieze ships trespassing within the area "controlled" by sansha garrison reeks of expansionism, and it is the PRC which has been trespassing on what is either disputed territory or the territory, legally held, of other nations (see the senkaku islands). Furthermore, let us take a look at Liang1a's post; paid or not, he is advocating the destruction of an entire nation and its people for hatreds that should be long-buried, and for so-called arrogance, when Japan has been–overall–relatively quiet when compared to China. After all, Japan has not invaded a single nation for the last 70 years or so. Nor has Japan illegally siezed the territory of other nations within that time, either by false historical claim or by use of force.

@Michael Turton
我同意。这项野心勃勃的新法律允许中国海事局扣押擅自进入三沙驻军“控制”区域内的船只，这是中国对他国合法占有领土（尖阁群岛）的侵略。此外，让我们看看Liang1a的回复，不管是不是五毛，他崇尚破坏整个国家和人民，因为尘封的仇恨和所谓的嚣张气焰，同中国相比日本整体比较安静。总之，日本在过去的70年中并没有入侵任何国家，也没有非法占有其他国家的任何领土，也没有虚假的索取或滥用武力。

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John Chan December 30, 2012 at 9:49 am
@Michael Turton,
Japan was defeated in WWII, and one of the punishments for its atrocity was limiting its territory to four main islands in the Cairo and Potsdam Declarations; but due to the shielding of the godfather of fascism, the USA, which wants to use the remnant of the evil Axis Powers as a tool for its imperialist hegemony purpose in Asia, Japan not only was not punished it continues its aggression under the permission of its godfather by occupying Ryukyu Kingdom and encroaching on China’s Diaoyu Islands.

@Michael Turton,
日本在二战中战败，在“开罗宣言和波茨坦宣言“中，其暴行的惩罚之一是限制领其土只包含四个主岛，但由于法西斯教父美国的庇护，美国希望用其残存的邪恶轴心的权力作为其在称霸亚洲的目的，日本不仅没有被惩罚，反而继续在其教父的许可下占领琉球王国，侵占中国的钓鱼岛。

Enough is enough, it’s time to implement the Cairo and Potsdam Declaration honestly and put the war criminal and its accomplice on trial and carry out the punishments accordingly; kicking JCG out and null Japan`s false claim of actual control is the first step, and restore Ryukyu Kingdom’s former status should be the next step to implement the Cairo and Potsdam Declaration.

够了，是时候真正地履行开罗和波茨坦宣言，将战争罪犯和其帮凶进行了相应的处罚，把日本海上保安厅踢出去，第一步先使其虚假的声明和实际控制无效，然后恢复琉球王国到以前的状态，履行“开罗宣言和波茨坦宣言”。

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Drive by December 30, 2012 at 2:50 pm
Taiwanese and Chinese did not protest in the 1960s does not mean anything. At that time, the Diaoyu Islands were under the administration of US, people in both sides of the strait were still haboring the naive thought that these islands would be handed  back to either side of China in accordance to WW2 treaties.

60年代大陆和台湾没有抗议并不代表着什么。在那个时候，钓鱼岛及其附属岛屿在美国的控制下，海峡两岸仍然天真认为根据二战条约这些岛屿会归还其中一方。

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Leonard R. December 28, 2012 at 9:51 am
Nothing will satisfy Hugh White short of the entire world kowtowing before the princelings. Beijing is pushing this. Japan has administered the islands for over a hundred years. Let the Princelings have their war. And let it spread to the Philippines and to India as well. Let the little emperors fight all their enemies at once and go down in a blaze of glory.

大子党不会满足的，缺乏世界历史（知识）的Hugh White 。北京正在继续扩张。日本已管理这些岛屿超过一百年。让大子党发动战争吧，让战争蔓延到菲律宾和印度。让小皇帝一次性面对所有的敌人，在荣耀之火中灭亡吧。

See how well that turns out for them. At least Japan has the honor to have say 'enough is enough'. I applaud them.  And personally, I think Beijing is backing down out of,this. But I hope not.

这对他们多好啊。至少日本荣幸地说“够了”。我为他们喝彩。个人认为北京正在回头，但我不希望这样。
  

REPLY
Lung Sha Shou December 29, 2012 at 5:07 pm
Leonard, I agree with your sober opinion as I often do.
Hugh White gets under my skin for much the same reason. Whilst I am also an Australian, I view White as a lightweight bush-academic who enjoys being a bigger fish in this small pond. I think his opinion is his idea of real-politik.
Like the princelings his opinions, in effect, support, these views are bankrupt of basic values.
i doubt there is any crime, short of a frank genocide that would result in his taking a line against China.
unfortunately I feel their rulers have a vision and take the long view while our leaders do not.
Leonard，

我同意你冷静的观点，我经常这样想。
Hugh White(译注：正文中的专家) 找到了更深层次的原因。虽然我也是一个澳大利亚人，我认为White是一个稍微布什-理论的人，喜欢做小池塘里的大鱼（称霸）。我认为他的观点才是真正的强权政治。  大子党的言论就是有力的证据，这些观点毫无节操。
我怀疑没有任何犯罪和种族灭绝会导致他针对中国。不幸的是，我觉得他们的统治者深谋远虑，但是我们的领导人不会。

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John Chan December 30, 2012 at 5:29 am
Hugh White is a patriot of Australia; he is trying to stop Aussies from becoming the cannon fodders for the USA’s silly pivoting to Asia.

Hugh White 是澳大利亚的爱国者，他是在阻止澳大利亚成为美国愚蠢的转移亚洲策略的炮灰。

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Tony Wang December 28, 2012 at 11:17 am
If the photo of Deng Xiaoping bowing deep in front of the Japanese flag (taken and first shown around 1979) is of any indication of the deep reverence of China's authorities for Japan, then please rest assured there won't be any action more serious than shouting and just nipping-at-the-ankle from China's authorities in all issues (not just Senkaku/Diaoyu islands') when it comes to Japan.

如果邓小平在日本国旗前深鞠躬的照片（1979年左右拍摄/首次出现）是中国政府对日本深深崇敬的象征，那么请放心，面对日本时，中国政府不会有任何比抗议和下跪更严重的行动了，（不只是尖阁列岛/钓鱼岛及其附属岛屿'）。

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John Chan December 28, 2012 at 11:31 am
Japan is an unapologetic war criminal; it never admitted defeat to anybody except to the USA. It has been white washing its defeat and crimes, as well as has been glossing over its conquest in Asia via rewriting history and reinforced with social events, for example adoring Class-A war criminals, rewriting school text books, denying the existence of comfort women, rejecting the compensation to slave labors, etc.

日本是一个不知悔过的战犯; 它只承认被美国击败。它一直在洗白其侵略和犯罪，通过篡改历史并加强社交活动来掩饰其在亚洲的侵略，例如参拜-A级战犯，修改教科书，否认“慰安妇”的存在 ，拒绝奴隶劳工的补偿，等等。

Japan’s obedience to the USA proves Japan is a thug nation, it only respects force and despises the weak, any reconciliatory approach for the sake of peace will be taken by the Japanese as weakness.

日本对美国的顺从，证明日本是一个流氓国家，它欺软怕硬，请求和解只会被日本看作软弱。

Japanese neo-fascism and militarism is like an abscess, it has to be poked and squeezed like what the USA did to it in WWII, soothing the crisis with temporary solution does not remove the toxin of fascism and militarism left behind since WWII.   

日本法西斯主义和军国主义就像一个脓疮，必须像二战中那样被戳和挤压，暂缓危机的临时性解决方案不能拔除自二战留下的法西斯主义和军国主义的毒瘤。   

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John Doughnut December 29, 2012 at 7:34 pm
Oh Geez….here we go again…..another "victimhood narrative"……can you change the manner on how to give an intelligent comment on this article?  Thank you.

唉....又来了......又是一个“受害者哭诉”......你能改变方式，发表一个聪明的评论吗？谢谢。

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Kevin Tee December 28, 2012 at 12:13 pm
There's really something wrong with China's never-ending greed. It is obvious that China only wants to escalate the issue further. Perhaps, to start a war without being called the aggressor. Whatever China's action will be, the international community would be on Japan's side. China is only isolating itself.

中国无止境的贪婪是错误的。很明显，中国要进一步升级问题。发动一场战争而不被称为侵略者。无论中国怎样做，国际社会将会站在日本这边。中国只会自我孤立。

REPLY
John Chan December 28, 2012 at 11:47 pm
@kevin Tee,
The imperialist West and its lackeys are not the international community; they are the regressive suppressors that the international community has been trying to rein in since WWII.

西方帝国主义及其走狗不代表国际社会，国际社会一直在试图遏制二战以后帝国主义的复苏。

Japan is only remnant of the evil Axis Powers that has it fascist structure intact because the shielding of the Godfather of Fascism. The international community will be joyful when China brings the remnant of the evil Axis Powers to ICC for its real Judgement day.

日本是仅剩的邪恶轴心国，在其法西斯“教父”的庇护下，其法西斯的结构得以完整保全，国际社会会非常高兴中国将残余的邪恶的轴心力量带到国际军事法庭的得到审判的那一天。

REPLY
Reason December 28, 2012 at 12:13 pm
This is a done deal – it's not a matter of 'if' only when…

交易已完成 - 不是“如果”仅 当

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Liang1a December 28, 2012 at 2:00 pm
War between China and Japan in E. China Sea is not only possible but inevitable.  The question is when.  Once started it won't end quickly but will drag on for many years until China decisively eliminates Japan.  The Japnese obviously is now full of beans and will not back down.  The Chinese government is now under a new leadership and no longer so eager to maintain the old policies of placating Japan.  Furthermore, it is now obvious that China cannot increase its exports to Japan.  If Xi is to realize his plan to double the incomes of the Chinese workers then he must turn inward to develop the Chinese economy based on increasing the productivity of the Chinese workers so that they can earn commensurate wages.  Only if Chinese workers can double their productivity can they deserve double their wages.  And since Japan does not figure in this new mode of Chinese economic development, China has less and less tolerance for Japnese arrogance.  Furthermore, China needs to reduce Japnese businesses in China so that more profits can go to the Chinese companies.  For example, by kicking out Japnese car companies from China's domestic marekt, the Chinese car companies can increase the Chinese domestic car market share by some 5 to 10 million cars.  This will allow the Chinese car companies to make hundreds of billions yuan more profits to fund R&D to hire tens of thousands of Chinese engineers to increase China's domestic economy.

中日在东海的战争不仅可能而且不可避免。只是时间问题。一旦发生不会速战速决，会持续上许多年，直到中国干掉日本。现在日本明显精力充沛，绝不会退缩。在新政府的领导下，中国不愿继续维持安抚日本的旧政策。此外，现在很明显中国不会增加对日出口。习要实现他中国工人收入翻倍的计划，那么他就必须转向国内，通过提高工人的生产力来发展国内经济，使工人获得相称的工资。只有中国工人的生产力加倍，才能得到双倍工资。此外，由于日本在中国经济新的发展模式中并不重要，中国对日本傲慢的宽容已经越来越少。此外，中国需要减少日企，这样可以使中国企业获得更多的利润。例如，把日本汽车厂商踢出国内市场，国产汽车企业就可以提高国内汽车市场份额，增加500万至1000万辆汽车。这会让中国汽车企业获得超过百亿的利润去投入研发，雇用数以万计的中国工程师来提高中国的国内经济。

Therefore, looking at the bigger picture of Chinese economic development it is a good thing to get rid of the Japnese FDI and reduce exports.  Therefore, China has nothing to fear.  It is even good for China to go to war with Japan so that Chinese consumers can smash Japnese businesses in Japan thus closing down Japnese businesses.  Therefore, war between China and Japan is now inevitable.

因此，看看中国经济发展的大环境，消灭日本对外直接投资和减少出口是好事情。因此，中国全无顾虑。中日战争还是好事，通过关闭中日交易，让中国消费者粉碎日本企业。因此，中日战争是不可避免的。
  

REPLY
Andao December 29, 2012 at 1:00 am
You don't know a lot about economics.

你不怎么了解经济

Productivity: Chinese increases in productivity have long outstripped increases in wages.  The problem isn't that Chinese workers aren't productive enough (they are about 1/3 as productive as US workers), the problem is that the gov is stealing their wages (they make 10% of US wages)

生产力：长久以来，中国的生产力增长已经远远超过了工资增长。问题是中国工人没有足够的生产力（大约美国工人的1/3），问题是政府窃取了他们的工资（只有美国工资的10％）。

Cars: If the domestic companies can meet the domestic demand, you have to ask yourself why every police car and nearly every taxi in China is an import brand, and the officials all drive Audis, not BYDs.  Chinese banks already give the auto industry enormous subsidies, but the car industry is still not competitive with foreign automakers.  Kicking out the Japanese companies will just push consumers to European or American cars, not Chinese ones.  And with less competition, the Chinese companies have less incentive to improve, regardless of how much is spent on R&D

汽车：如果国内企业能满足国内需求，你要问自己，为什么每辆警车，几乎所有的出租车都是进口品牌，官员都驾驶奥迪，而不是比亚迪。中国银行已经给了汽车行业巨额补贴，但是和外国汽车制造商相比仍然是没有竞争力。踢出日本企业只会把顾客推向欧洲或美国的汽车，而不是国产的。竞争越少，中国企业就越没有动力去改善，无论在研发上花费多少。

As for all your war talk, what is the objective of a war with Japan?  If China controlls the Senkakus, the Chinese people will still be bombarded with anti-Japanese war dramas, along with excessively negative portrayals of Japan in the media and education system.  So, what is China's true goal vis a vis Japan?  Total genocide?  Replacing the leadership in Tokyo with pro-China puppets?  The most warlike Chinese people I know have absolutely no idea what to do about Japan, other than kill kill kill.  

对于你所有的战争言论，与日本一战的目标是什么？如果中国控制尖阁列岛，中国人民会受到日本的轰炸，伴随日本媒体和教育系统中更加过度的负面形象。那么，什么是中国真正的目的？种族灭绝？利用亲中的傀儡替代日本领导人吗？我完全想不到最好战的中国人会对日本怎么样，除了杀杀杀。  

REPLY
John Chan December 30, 2012 at 4:57 am
@Andao,
Are you saying “only the West can invent, and only the West can succeed?” How about USA hands Japan over to China for 20 years, see whether China can recue Japan out of its “lost decades” induced by the USA.

@Ando，
你是说：“只有西方能够创造，只有西方能成功吗？” 不如美国把日本交给中国20年，看看中国能否把日本从美国造成的“失落的十年”中挽救出来。

REPLY
Liang1a December 30, 2012 at 7:12 am
Andao wrote:
December 29, 2012 at 1:00 am
You don't know a lot about economics.
Productivity: Chinese increases in productivity have long outstripped increases in wages. The problem isn't that Chinese workers aren't productive enough (they are about 1/3 as productive as US workers), the problem is that the gov is stealing their wages (they make 10% of US wages)
Liang’s response:
You’re the one who is confused. A worker must first be highly productive before he can deserve high wages commensurate with his productivity. High wages without high productivity will only lead to inflation. High productivity without high wages is an injustice obviously. But that does not mean high productivity is not necessary. Capitalists always want to maximize his profits. One way to do this is to minimize wages for his workers. He can keep the wages low so long as there are plenty of workers who are willing to work for cheap wages. This was the case throughout the European industrial revolution. What is happening now in China is only a repeat of what happened in the West. Of course this is an injustice and is the fault of the exports dependent mode of economic development which relies on cheap labor to compete in the global market. This is why it is necessary to phase out cheap exports and shift the development mode to domestic development based on indigenous technological advancement, the urbanization of the farmers and the energy self-sufficiency. Under this mode of domestic development the Chinese workers can deserve high wages commensurate with high productivity since the prices of their goods and services can rise as high as domestic demand allow them (and not limited by global competition) and the workers’ wages can rise as high as the prices of their goods and services allow. Therefore, higher productivity will lead to higher wages and higher wages will lead to more demand and consumption. And the result is a generally rising and expanding economy based on increasing consumption and increasing productivity without inflation.
Incidentally, the Chinese government had mandated increases of wages by 50% or more since 2010. Therefore, your stupid remarks about the Chinese government “stealing” the wages of the Chinese workers is simply not true.  You are either ignorant of what is happening in China or deliberately lying. Many of the Chinese workers work for private factories or for foreign owned factories such as Japnese owned factories.

Andao写道：
2012年12月29号凌晨1点，
你不怎么了解经济。
生产力：长久以来，中国的生产力增长已经远远超过了工资增长。问题是中国工人没有足够的生产力（大约美国工人的1/3），问题是政府窃取了他们的工资（只有美国工资的10％）。


Liang的回复：
“你糊涂了。一名工人必须首先具有高生产力才能拿到与之相应的工资。高工资低生产力只会导致通胀。高生产力低工资显然是不公平的。但是这并不意味着高生产率是没有必要的。资本家总是希望他的利润最大化。做到这一点的方法之一是尽量减少工人的工资，只要有很多愿意为低工资的工作的人。这是欧洲的工业革命时的情形。中国仅仅是在重复西方所做过的。当然这是不公平的，依靠廉价劳动力和出口的经济发展方式在全球市场竞争是错误的。这就是为什么要转变廉价的出口模式到依靠技术进步，城市化和能源自给国内发展模式。在此模式下中国工人会得到与之生产效率匹配的高工资，他们的商品和服务的价格可以在内需允许的情况下尽可能提高（不受全球竞争的限制），工人的工资会上升到他们的商品和服务允许的范围。因此更高的生产率将导致更高的工资，更高的工资将导致更多的需求和消费。其结果是一个基于内需增长和生产力提高的普遍上涨和扩大的经济，而且没有通货膨胀。
顺便说一句，自2010年以来，中国政府已经提高工资超过了50％以上。因此，你的中国政府“窃取”中国工人工资的愚蠢言论是一派胡言。你或者是不了解中国，或者是故意说谎。很多中国工人为私营工厂或外商独资的工厂工作，比如日资工厂。

REPLY
Liang1a December 30, 2012 at 7:19 am
Andao wrote:
December 29, 2012 at 1:00 am
… the problem is that the gov is stealing their wages (they make 10% of US wages)
==============================
As I explained before, many foreign companies including Japnese companies are hiring Chinese workers to exploit their cheap labor.  Cheap Chinese labor is the reason why foreign factories are manufacturing in China.  So if anybody is stealing Chinese workers' wages it is the Japnese among other foreigers.

Ando写道：
2012年12月29号凌晨1点
...问题是，政府窃取了他们的工资（只有美国的工资的10％）
================== ============
正如我之前所说，很多外国公司，包括日本公司雇佣中国工人来利用其廉价的劳动力。中国廉价的劳动力是外国工厂都在中国生产的原因。因此，如果有人窃取中国工人的工资，包括日本和其他国外公司。

Liang1a December 30, 2012 at 7:29 am
Andao wrote:
December 29, 2012 at 1:00 am
Cars: If the domestic companies can meet the domestic demand, you have to ask yourself why every police car and nearly every taxi in China is an import brand, and the officials all drive Audis, not BYDs. Chinese banks already give the auto industry enormous subsidies, but the car industry is still not competitive with foreign automakers. Kicking out the Japanese companies will just push consumers to European or American cars, not Chinese ones. And with less competition, the Chinese companies have less incentive to improve, regardless of how much is spent on R&D
Liang’s response:
Your logic is false. It is a fact that Chinese cars are not selling as much as foreign cars. Maybe this is even because Chinese cars are not as high quality as foreign cars. But just because Chinese cars are not as good as foreign cars now does not mean Chinese cars cannot be better than foreign cars in the future. All it needs is for more R&D for Chinese car makers to produce a superior car. Since most of the profits from the Chinese car market is going to foreign car makers, the Chinese car makers don’t get a lot of profits from which to fund R&D. The truth is it is the Chinese consumers who are funding the R&D of foreign car makers. Therefore, it is clear what the Chinese government must do. It must shut out foreign cars from Chinese domestic market. This will then allow all the profits to go to the domestic car companies to provide them with large funding for extensive R&D. The inevitable result will be the development of many superior cars.  And there will be ample supply of Chinese cars for Chinese car buyers who ultimately will prefer Chinese cars for their superior quality.
Over the short term, even if Chinese car makers buy more German cars to replace Japnese cars that is not a big problem.  So long as Japnese cars are out of China.  Why should Chinese car buyers support their enemies?  It is time to teach the Japnese a lesson.

Ando写道：
2012年12月29号上午1:00
汽车：如果国内企业能满足国内需求，你要问自己，为什么每辆警车，几乎所有的出租车都是进口品牌，官员都驾驶奥迪，而不是比亚迪。中国银行已经给了汽车行业巨额补贴，但是和外国汽车制造商相比仍然是没有竞争力。踢出日本企业只会把顾客推向欧洲或美国的汽车，而不是国产的。争越少，中国企业就越没有动力去改善，无论在研发上花费多少。

Liang的回复：
您的逻辑是错误的。这是一个事实，国产汽车销量不如外国汽车多。也许这是因为中国汽车质量不够好。但是，现在不够好并不意味着以后就被不能。中国的汽车制造商需要更多的研发来生产卓越的汽车。由于中国汽车市场的利润大多被外国汽车制造商获得，中国的汽车制造商没有得到了很多的利润去支持研发。事实是资助的外国汽车制造商研发的是中国的消费者。因此，中国政府要做的就很清楚了。它必须赶走国内市场的外国汽车。将所有的利润流向国内汽车企业，为大量的研发提供庞大的资金. 结果将是许多更好的汽车的发展。中国汽车供应充足，中国的购车者最终会选择卓越的品质的中国车。  
在短期内，即使中国的汽车制造商购买更多的德国汽车来取代日本的车也不是一个大问题。只要日本汽车被赶出中国。为什么中国购车者要支持他们的敌人吗？是时候给日本一个教训了

REPLY
Liang1a December 30, 2012 at 7:47 am
Andao wrote:
December 29, 2012 at 1:00 am
As for all your war talk, what is the objective of a war with Japan? If China controlls the Senkakus, the Chinese people will still be bombarded with anti-Japanese war dramas, along with excessively negative portrayals of Japan in the media and education system. So, what is China's true goal vis-à-vis Japan? Total genocide? Replacing the leadership in Tokyo with pro-China puppets? The most warlike Chinese people I know have absolutely no idea what to do about Japan, other than kill kill kill.
===========================
Liang’s response:
Don’t play cute. You’re only going to make the Chinese very angry. The Japnese killed 40 million Chinese directly or caused their death indirectly. Even if Chinese now killed 40 million Japnese it is not any more than what the Japnese had done.

Ando写道：
2012年12月29号上午1:00
对于你所有的战争言论，与日本一战的目标是什么？如果中国控制尖阁列岛，中国人民会受到日本的轰炸，伴随日本媒体和教育系统中更加过度的负面形象。那么，什么是中国真正的目的？种族灭绝？利用亲中的傀儡替代日本领导人吗？我完全想不到最好战的中国人会对日本怎么样，除了杀杀杀。
===========================
Liang的回复：

别开玩笑。你只会让中国很生气。日本直接地或间接地杀死了中国4000万人。即使中国现在杀了4000万日本人，也无法消除仇恨。

REPLY
ACT December 31, 2012 at 11:56 am
@liang1a
so because a misguided, brainwashed japanese military bent on their own glory directly or indirectly caused the deaths of Chinese citizens nearly 70 years ago, China somehow has the permission–nay–the right to kill an equal number of innocent Japanese civilians who are nearly 70 years removed from the crimes of their grandfathers? are you insane?

@liang1a
所以，因为70年前误入歧途的洗脑的日本军队为了自己的荣耀直接或间接导致中国人死亡，中国现在拥有权利去杀死同等数量的日本人？他们祖父的罪恶已经过去了70年。你疯了吗？

John Doughnut December 29, 2012 at 7:41 pm
Yeah sure.  If this can happen to Japan, after helping China to develop their industrial processes through innovation, the European Union, ASEAN, and the United States of America will see this to be happening to them soon too.  Just dont be too ungrateful.  China must live in a civilized world where people in this world intermingle and where China's economy depend on other economies in this globalized world.

当然可以。如果可以发生在日本身上，通过帮助中国创新发展其工业流程，欧盟，东盟，美国也会很快看到这些发生在他们身上。不要太忘恩负义了。中国必须生活在一个文明的世界，在这个世界上的人们相互交织，中国的经济依赖于全球化的经济。

REPLY
John Chan December 31, 2012 at 12:49 pm

Before the USA shows its gratefulness to where it robbed and stole the technologies, USA does not qualify to lecture anybody about how the other people obtain their technologies.

@John Doughnut,
在美国表示对被他盗抢的科技进行感激之前，美国没有资格评价他人如何获得他们的技术。

Before the USA shows its remorse about the atrocities it has committed against other people, USA does not qualify to be admitted into this civilized world where people value harmony, peace, justice and equality.

在美国表示其对他人施加的暴行的同情之前，美国没有资格加入这个文明的世界，人们珍惜和谐，和平，正义与平等。

REPLY
elmerfudzie December 30, 2012 at 12:03 pm
This REPLY is intended for Liang1a per your commentary dated December 28, 2012 at 2:00 pm. Dream a different dream please Liang1a! Japan is the third largest economy in the world. It has complex and substantial investments in both developed and undeveloped countries. It's technical prowess is so advanced that, at a moments notice, is one screw driver turn away from IRBM's fitted with nuclear warheads. As a US citizen, I don't want to see this become a reality, neither does the rest of the (sane) world and I will venture to be so assuming as to believe that neither would the Chinese Government! Ask yourself the question, why do great wars seem to always begin with obscure reasons, events, people or places? because implacable ignorance marches on through time despite all the great minds and universities. We all have one more chance to look back, with twenty-twenty vision and avoid repeating another world war over what amounts to down right Silliness. As circumstances are now within Japan, the place will only be habitable if you sixty years old or better. Dream my dream now Liang1a and picture Lavrov flying to Japan with an open letter from the Dumas, Sakhalin Island will be returned to you, we'll work out financial compensations when you get back on your feet from this Fukushima disaster. The Americans claim, in writing, that they will roll back plans for expanding Guam if we take this step towards international peace. Take a breather and picture what a great boost this political maneuver would be for the entire world economy-without destroying things or people or starting WWIII. Can it be done? at least one precedent in all of history?

这个答复是针对Liang1a于2012年12月28日下午2:00的评论。做别的梦吧，Liang1a！日本是世界第三大经济体。它在发达国家和不发达国家拥有复杂的实体投资。它的科技非常先进，片刻就可发射装有核弹头的中程弹道导弹。作为一个美国公民，我不想看到这成为现实，也不希望其他的（理智）的国家，我会大胆假设，相信中国政府也不能！问你个问题，为什么大型战争似乎总是以不明原因，事件，人或地方开始呢？因为尽管有伟大的思想家和大学，愚昧和无知 并未消失。每个人都有一次机会回头看清楚和避免重复另一次世界大战。比如现在的日本国内的情况，这个地方只适合六十岁及以上的人居住。做我的梦吧Liang1a，拉夫罗夫（俄外交部长）带着大仲马的一封公开信飞往日本，库页岛将被退还给日本，当你从福岛灾难振作起来我们会制定出经济补偿，。美国重新声称会扩大关岛的计划，如果我们为国际和平做出努力。这个政治策略对于整个世界经济太伟大了，不必破坏东西或任何人，不必发动第三次世界大战。这可能吗？历史中有先例吗？

REPLY
Liang1a December 28, 2012 at 2:14 pm
Quote from the article:
Of course it would be folly to count on a prolonged crisis simply fizzling out. But both China and Japan are more than capable of strategic patience. Neither wants to force the issue in the immediate term. Each government has an interest in trying to exert greater control over the various institutional players — not just navies but also civilian maritime agencies — whose operational decisions could make the difference between calm and crisis.
=======================
So far the patience has been shown only by the Chinese due to the foolish policy of "hide the light" of Wen Jiabao.  Now Wen is leaving, the Chinese people are impatiently waiting for Xi to begin a new era of more active protection of China's sovereignty.  After dcades of placating the foreigners such as the Philippines, Vietnam and Japan, all China got back was jeers and mockeries and invasions.  Every Chinese can see Wen's policy has been a total failure.  Therefore, if Japan wants to maintain peace then it must get out of China's sovereign territories and respect China's rights.  Otherwise, it will be war.
Many Japnese erroneously think they had never lost a battle against China.  The truth is Japan had lost most of its battles against China after 1940.  China had defeated Japan in Burma.  China had repeatedly defeated Japan when it tried to invade southern China.  By 1944, Japan could no longer mount an attack on Chungking.  It was not only due to America's weak island battles which involved only less than 100,000 troops.  Japan simply could not launch hundreds of thousands of troops necessay to fight the increasingly larger armies of the Nationalists in the south and the Communists in the north.  Now China's weapons are even more modern and superior than the Japnese weapons.  All the Japnese have is their arrogant presumption of superiority based on their victories in the past.  And as I said above, the Japnese imperial armies were defeated repeatedly by the Chinese armies even from 1940 onward.  So, I'm confident China will decisively defeat japan again.

文章引用：
当然，坐等这种长期危机消退是愚蠢的。但是，中日双方都是非常有战略耐心的。没有一方期望在短期内解决问题。双方政府都试图在各方面加强控制 - 不仅是海军，还有民用海事机构 -  它的操作方式区别于冷静和危机
============ ===========
到目前为止，只有wjb的“韬光养晦”的愚蠢政策证明了“耐心”。现在，wjb正在离任，中国人都在焦急地等待XI开始一个新时代，更积极地保护中国的主权。数十年对国外的安抚，比如菲律宾，越南和日本，中国换回来的只有嘲笑，嘲弄和入侵。每个中国人都能看到温的政策已经完全失败。因此，如果日本要维持和平，那么它必须离开中国的主权领土，尊重中国的权利。否则，只有战争。
许多日本人错误地认为，他们在中日战争中从未输过。事实是，自1940年后日本在中日对抗中大多是失败的。中国在缅甸打败了日本。中国曾多次击败日本，当它试图入侵中国南部时。到1944年，日本不再对重庆发动攻击。这不仅是因为美国的弱岛战役，只有不到10万兵力参与。日本甚至无法召集足够的士兵去对抗在南方越来越多的gmd和在北方的tg军队。现在，中国的武器甚至比日本武器更加的现代化和优良。日本所有的优势是他们基于过去胜利而自大妄想的。正如我上面所说，日本帝国军队甚至在1940年就被中国军队反复击败。所以，我相信中国将果断地再次打败日本。

REPLY
ACT December 29, 2012 at 2:01 pm
@Liang1a
wait, did i read this right? "jeers and mockeries and invasions"…by the Philippines, Vietnam and Japan? Do you honestly believe every word that you type, or comes out of your mouth? Let's examine that sentence: Not once have the Philippines or Vietnam ever invaded Chinese territory, rather, it has been the opposite. And, excluding the Senkaku islands since those were legally claimed by Japan in 1895 due to a gaping black hole with regards to evidence of Chinese settlement or use, Japan has not taken any aggressive actions or even invasions, against China since 1945. To all evidence, just the opposite; since the early 1970's the PRC has taken a series of aggressive actions against territories that legally belonged to the Philippines, Vietnam and Japan, each and every time when those nations were at their most vulnerable. Judging by this, and with the looming U.S tax rises and military spending cuts–all necessary–that constitute the so-called "fiscal cliff", then we can expect more from the PRC in 2013; going by the trend displayed,as well as the excellent analysis provided by 1913intel in the article "the bullies of beijing," I fully expect a Sino-American or Sino-Japanese war to erupt somewhere around the 100th anniversary of World War I.

@ Liang1a
等一下，我没看错吧？“嘲笑和嘲弄和入侵" …被菲律宾，越南和日本？难道你真的相信您打的字，说的话？让我们来看看那句话：菲律宾或越南不止一次侵略中国的领土，其实，恰恰相反。不包括尖阁诸岛，因为在1895年被日本合法占据。由于尊重中国曾经使用过的证据，日本自1945年以没有对中国采取任何的行动和入侵。所有的证据，正好相反，20世纪70年代初以来，中国在这些国家最脆弱的时候对属于菲律宾，越南和日本的合法领土采取了一系列积极的行动。由此可见，伴随即将到来的美国加税和削减军费开支构成的所谓的“财政悬崖”，让我们多多期待中国在2013年，根据已有的趋势，以及1913intel的文章“北京的恶霸”中提供的优秀的分析，”我完全期待中美或中日在第一次世界大战诞辰100周年爆发战争。

REPLY
ACT December 29, 2012 at 2:17 pm
@Liang1a
"And as I said above, the Japanese imperial armies were defeated repeatedly by the Chinese armies even from 1940 onward.  So, I'm confident China will decisively defeat japan again."
From 1940 onwards, you say? as late as 1944, the Japanese were still launching offensives into Southern China into an attempt to destroy American bases, and the Chinese Army under Chiang Kai-Shek was categorically unable to defend cities that stood in the way of that advance. Meanwhile Mao was hiding and preparing for the coming Chinese Civil War; Kai-Shek and Mao were more interested in fighting each other than the Japanese, so Chinese resistance up until 1945, the first time China was able to drive the Japanese back, was basically a series of failed holding actions; the Japanese army lost at most a million men (the official KIA statistic is somewhere around 415 thousand) only because their commanders were fanatics, and they were equipped with inferior weaponry. Meanwhile the ROC and Communist forces suffered a grand total of 3-4 million deaths. This was not a Chinese victory, it was not even a war; it was a slaughter, made to resemble war only in that both sides used outdated tactics and weaponry.

@ Liang1a
“正如我上面所说，日本帝国军队从1940年起多次被中国军队击败，所以，我相信中国将果断地再次打败日本。”
从1940年起？至少在1944年年底，日本仍然在中国南方发动攻势，企图破坏美军基地，蒋介石的军队仍然无法保护前线城市。与此同时，毛藏起来并为即将到来的中内战做准备，蒋和毛更热衷于内战而不是抗日，所以一直抵抗到1945年，中国第一次驱赶日本基本上是一系列失败的行动，日军失去了最多百万人（KIA的官方统计，大约415000）仅仅因为他们的指挥官是狂热分子，他们装备较差的武器装备。同时，中华民国和tg总计有3-4百万人死亡。这不是中国的胜利，甚至不是战争，这是一场屠杀，至于为什么像一场战争，仅仅因为双方使用过时的战术和武器装备。

REPLY
Liang1a December 30, 2012 at 3:06 am
ACT wrote:
The Japnese had superior weapons and still you had lost.  Maybe Mao and Chiang were preparing for the end of the war against Japan and saved their weapons for the civil war.  But that was in the past.  Now China is united with a single military under a single command and armed with weapons superior to the Japnese military.  China can defeat the American invasion force now around its own waters within 3,000 km of its shores.  Japan is not even in the same league of China now.  China can eat it for dessert.  Most of China's casulaties in the war against Japan were suffered at the beginning of the war.  By 1939 on Chinese were inflicting heavy casualties on the Japnese such as 1 Chinese dead for 2 Japnese dead in 1942 battle fo Changsha and 3 Chinese dead for 2 Japnese dead in the 1944 battle of Changsha.
ACT写道： 2012年12月29号在下午2时17分

日本具有更优良的武器，还是输了。也许毛和蒋正在为抗日战争结束做准备，并为内战节省武器。但那都是过去的事了。现在，中国军队是一个整体接受统一指挥，拥有优于日本军队的武器。中国可以在3000公里水域的范围内击败美国的入侵力量。中日甚至不属于同一个联盟。中国可以像甜点一样吃掉日本。中国的伤害大多都是在战争开始遭受的。到了1939年对中国对日造成重大人员伤亡，比如1942常山战役中日伤亡比1/2 ，在1944年的长沙会战中中日伤亡比3/2。

bring it on December 30, 2012 at 5:42 pm
War is unlikely to happen but  IT WOULD BE A GOOD THING for war to break out between the two. First, China gets the chance to really turn Yasukuni into a veritable wasteland on behalf of all those who died during the Pacific aggression.  Secondly, let Washington try to intervene and see just how smart it really is. Any unwise move by the ruddy-cheeked aggressors should provide the incentive for an accurately aimed missile or bomb at Fukushima. When the Fuku genie is fully released from its proverbial bottle all of humanity will only have a very limited time left on this Earth. As Dubya once so very famously proclaimed, " Bring it on! ",  yes sir. Bring it on. Let's all die together. What's there to lose anyway ? ? ?


战争是不怎么可能发生，但战一旦争爆发，那将是一件好事。首先，中国得到机会真正把祭奠战犯的靖国神社变成名副其实的荒地。其次，让华盛顿进行干预，看看它有多聪明。脸色红润的侵略者的任何不明智的举动都会为导致导弹或炸弹对福岛的精确打击。当福岛的恶魔被彻底释放，所有的人类都活不长。布什的名言，“来吧！”，是的，先生。来吧。让我们死在一起。还有什么可以失去呢？？？

John Chan December 30, 2012 at 6:04 am
@ACT,
Japan is an unapologetic war criminal, its toxin of Fascism and militarism were not cleansed after WWII like Germany because the shielding of the godfather of fascism, the USA, which wants to use the remnant of the evil Axis Powers as a tool for its imperialist hegemony purposes.

日本是个不知悔过的犯罪，其法西斯主义和军国主义的毒素没有像德国那样被清洗，因为美国美国教父的庇护，要使用残余邪恶的轴心国力量作为帝国主义称霸的工具。

Millions upon millions of Asian victims have no chance to redress their suffering and injustice caused by the Fascist Japanese, because the USA has abandoned the liberty, justice, and freedom declared in the Cairo and Potsdam declarations.

数以百万的亚洲受害者没有机会伸张他们的痛苦和日本的法西斯所造成的不公平，因为美国已经放弃了“开罗宣言和波茨坦声明“宣称的的解放，公正和自由。

Enough is enough for letting injustice and war crimes be ignored by the imperialist and its lackeys, it’s time to implement the Cairo and Potsdam Declarations honestly and put the war criminal and its accomplice on trial and dish out proper punishments, the victims of these war criminals have waited long enough for their voice to be heard.


够了，不要再让不公平和战犯被帝国主义和其走狗忽略，是时候以认真履行开罗和波茨坦宣，把战犯及其帮凶进行审判和惩罚，战争受害者已经等了很久了。

REPLY
ACT December 31, 2012 at 12:07 pm
@liang1a, bring it on, John Chan
please tell me why i should continue to debate with you, when it its clear that you all want war; that you are, thanks to the excellent propaganda of your nation,bent on the wholesale genocide of a nation based upon the crimes of a government nearly seventy years dead, against a people who no longer have anything to do with those crimes? let me make this clear: i am 24 years old, a college student studying history; Should the PRC make the mistake of going to war against Japan in the interest of taking revenge or realizing any pathetic and anachronistic notions of "destined empire", then i will voluntarily, despite my previous military service, sign up and make sure that Beijing counts the body-bags going home to Chinese families bereft of their sons and daughters.

@ liang1a，还有，陈祖泽
请告诉我，为什么我应该继续与你辩论，你很清楚你们都希望战争；多亏了你们国家优秀的宣传，基于一个国家七十年前的罪行来来实施种族灭绝，对一群和这些罪犯毫无关系的人？让我明确这一点：我今年24岁，历史专业的大学生，如果中国对日开战进行报复或实现任何可悲的不合时宜的观念“帝国注定"，尽管我以前的军事服务，我会自愿报名，确保北京有数不清回家的“尸体袋”，让中国家庭失去他们的儿子和女儿。

John Doughnut December 29, 2012 at 7:45 pm
Oh Geez…..The chinese government strict censorship resulted in distorted facts about China's history….China defeated Japan?…….since when?….If I were you, go out of China and go somewhere like Hongkong then Google everything to find out the truth about your history.  

唉.....中国政府严格的审查制度导致了歪曲的历史......中国打败了日本吗？......从什么时候起？......如果我是你，走出中国去别的地方，比如香港，然后谷歌一下去找到你历史的真相。

REPLY
Liang1a December 30, 2012 at 2:36 am
@ Doughnut
In the Battle of Changsha in Dec. 1941 to Jan. 1942 the Japnese tried to attacked Changsha and got defeated by the Chinese.  As a result the japnese lost 56,746 dead out of an attacking force of 120,000 soldiers.  The Chinese lost only 28,116 killed.  By any measure that was a great victory for the Chinese.  You can go to the following link to read more about it.  There were also many other victories for Chinese soldiers such as the war in Burma.  An American general by the name of Stilwell said Chinese soldiers if well armed and well trained can defeat the Japnese in open battle.  This quote is taken from the book "China at War 1901 – 1949" by Edward L. Dreyer.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Changsha_(1942)

@ Doughnut
1941年12月至1942年1月在长沙会战日本试图攻击长沙，却被中国击败。其结果是日本失去了12万中的56,746人。中国失去了仅仅28,116。以任何标准衡量，这都是中国的一个伟大的胜利。你可以通过下面的链接阅读更多内容。在缅甸战争也有中国的胜利。美国将军史迪威说，如果中国士兵装备精良，训练有素的话可以在正面击败日本。这句话引用自Edward L. Dreyer的《中国在战争1901 - 1949》一书。http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Changsha_（1942）

REPLY
Liang1a December 30, 2012 at 2:41 am
John Doughnut wrote:

December 29, 2012 at 7:45 pm
Oh Geez…..The chinese government strict censorship resulted in distorted facts about China's history….China defeated Japan?…….since when?….If I were you, go out of China and go somewhere like Hongkong then Google everything to find out the truth about your history.
====================================
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Changsha_(1942)
The third Battle of Changsha (24 December 1941–15 January 1942) was the first major invasion in China by

Imperial Japanese forces following the Japanese attack on the Western Allies.
The offensive was originally intended to prevent Chinese forces from reinforcing the

British Commonwealth forces engaged in Hong Kong. With the capture of Hong Kong on 25 December, however, it was decided to "continue the offensive against Changsha in order to maximize the blow against the Chinese government. The offensive resulted in failure for the Japanese, as Chinese forces were able to lure them into a trap and encircle them. After suffering heavy casualties, Japanese forces called for a general retreat.
Casualties and losses:
Chinese: 28,166 killed,
Japnese: 56,746 killed.
=================================
The above is a quote taken from Wikipedia at the provided link.

John Doughnut写道
December 29, 2012 at 7:45 pm
唉.....中国政府严格的审查制度导致了歪曲的历史......中国打败了日本吗？......从什么时候起？......如果我是你，走出中国去别的地方，比如香港，然后谷歌一下去找到你历史的真相。
================================== ==
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Changsha_（1942年）
第三次长沙会战（1941年12月24日至1942年1月15日）是日本在西方被盟军攻击后第一个次规模入侵。
最初的目的是防止中国军队增援香港英联邦队。香港被占领后12月25日决定继续进攻长沙，以最大限度的打击中国政府。日方最终失败，因为中国军队吸引他们进入陷阱包围了他们。在遭受重大人员伤亡后，日本军队全面撤退。
伤亡和损失：
中国：28,166死亡，
日本：56,746死亡。
================ =================
以上是摘自维基百科。

REPLY
John Chan December 30, 2012 at 5:09 am
@John Doughnut,
China has defeated Japan many times, in wars and in battles if you can read the real history, not the ones fabricated by the creative revisionist westerners and their lackeys who insist their words must be taken as given truth because they have openly discussed the topics among themselves.

Google is a giant Eurocentrism propaganda machine, using propaganda to prove propaganda right is an circular argument fallacy.

@John Doughnut,
中国先后多次在战争中，在战役中击败日本，如果读到的历史是真的，而不是西方人和他们的走狗制作的编造的，他们坚持他们的话必须被视为事实，因为他们自己进行公开讨论了。
谷歌是一个巨大的欧洲中心主义的宣传机器，利用宣传来证明其宣传正确是一个循环论证的谬误。

REPLY
plumber December 28, 2012 at 3:24 pm
Oh, someone here has finally realised that there is real risk of war. In fact, for readers who read Chinese, the official rhetoric is subtle but unmistakeable. And past history (korean,sino-indian,sino-soviet , sino-vietnamese wars) indicates that the PRC would not back tract on their threats. No rights or wrongs here. But for a small-time wage earners ( like me)  who is struggling to keep afloat , the talk of war is no mere academic exercise.

哦，这里终于有人意识到，战争真的是有风险的。事实上，对于中国人来说官方的说辞是很微妙但是毋庸置疑的。过去的历史（朝鲜，中印，中苏，中越战争）显示，中国不会对威胁妥协。这里没有对错。但是，对于一个）努力保持漂浮的小“打工仔”
（比如我），讨论战争只不过是学术活动罢了。

REPLY
Tony Wang December 30, 2012 at 12:33 am
@ plumber
Please rest assured; there won't be any war, not even small skirnishes, as per my "analysis" above. There's an un-surmountable difference (both physically and psychologically) between shooting un-armed students and shooting at someone who can shoot back, especially someone for whom you've always had deep reverence and awe for

@ plumber
请放心，不会有战争，即使是很小的冲突也没有，就像我上面的“分析”。射击手无寸铁的学生和射击有还手能力的人还是有很大不同的（身体上，心理上），特别对于一些你深深崇敬和敬畏的人。

REPLY
Shady Sands December 28, 2012 at 8:25 pm
The good news is that Japan’s newly-elected conservative Abe government has no pressing reason to pursue further provocation. And whatever its forceful rhetoric, the new Chinese leadership has little near-term incentive to prod Japan further; an armed confrontation with Japan that ended badly for China would be worse for the credibility of China’s leaders than no clash at all.

好消息是，日本新当选的保守党安倍政府并没有进行进一步的挑衅。措辞依然强烈，但是中国的新领导短期内也没有刺激日本；比起在对日冲突中以惨败收场，中国领导人还不如什么都不做。

Abe's government is "conservative" and hence has little reason to pursue "further provocation"; the new Chinese leadership has little "near-term incentive" to prod Japan further.  Reading between the lines, is the implicit assumption is that over the long-term, as China waxes and Japan wanes, China will prod Japan?  Or is that more a read that when Abe is gone, China will prod Japan?

安倍政府是“保守的”，因此，不会追求“进一步的挑衅”，中国新的领导层有一些“短期激励”，以进一步刺激日本。字里行间隐含的假设是，从长期来看，中国增强日本减弱，中国会刺激日本？或者弦外之意更是，当安倍走人，中国会刺激日本？

REPLY
Dayra December 28, 2012 at 10:17 pm
Yes its possible. Just like Plan Orange was made in 1898 when it first emerged that Japan was going to try and take over the world. Things might be different now but as China found out recently as it broke treaties it may not be a signatory to when people in the US warned them that the US and Japan have a defence treaty. Further the plans are more than just plans now. Forward posturing things like B2 bombers and F22 and F35 Squadrons at various times throught they year, littoral patrol boats in choke poinst off Singapore, and reserve instalations all over the place should help people understand that the possiblity is real and present. Provocation is one thing but repetitious insult is another. What else can we say, sometimes we dissagree and wont aggree to dissagree and then its on. Exchange theory also helps to understand why, the pressure on China, and how if you take more than you can put back your going to have problems. What side your on will be the only choice your likely to really have to worry about.


是的，有可能。就像1898年的橙色计划，它第一次暴漏了日本要尝试占领世界的计划。现在事情可能会有所不同，因为中国打破了一个中国根本没有参与签署的条约，美国却警告美日有一个防御条约。此外，未来的计划不仅仅是现在的样子了。像B2轰炸机，F22和F35中队，在新加坡沿海的巡逻艇，储备军用设施应该帮助人们理解战争可能是真实存在的。挑衅是一回事，但是反复侮辱是另一回事。我们还能说什么，有时候我们不同意，不会同意不同意的，然后开始了。交换理论也有助于理解中国的压力，贪心只会导致问题 。站在哪一方是你唯一需要担心的。

REPLY
mareo2 December 28, 2012 at 10:27 pm

Opinions may differ, but I think that many people agree that if the PLA Navy was really sure of defeat the MSDF in a short war limited only to the Senkaku islands for avoid a strong military intervention of the US, then the CCP already did it for trying to crush the hopes of other countries in the Asia-Pacific region of resisting the CCP's plans of expand the borders of the PRC. Le't me give a little example about why some people find difficult to buy the idea that the PLA Navy is a serious threat to Japan.

意见可能会有所不同，但我认为，很多人都会同意如果解放军海军真的仅限于在尖阁诸岛的短期战争来打败日本海上自卫队，来避免美国强大的军事干预，那么tg已经做出努力让亚太地区其他抵抗中过扩张的国家的希望破灭了。让我举个小例子，为什么有些人很难同意解放军海军对日本是一个严重威胁。


Inside China: Admiral says China can destroy destroyers…“I can send several dozen small fishing boats loaded with explosives, floating and wobbly in the water, inching toward the Zumwalt, place the explosives onto its hulls [and] blow many holes in the hull. It will be finished then. The Zumwalt is no good!” the admiral remarked with his signature optimism.

在中国境内的想法：海军少将说，中国可以摧毁驱逐舰...“我可以派出几十个载有十几人和炸药的小渔船，在水中浮动和摇摆不定，缓慢漂向朱姆沃尔特号（美国最先进驱逐舰），在其船体放置炸药炸出洞来。这样就搞定了。朱姆沃尔特并不好！“海军少将说乐观的说。

Widely known as China’s “Adm. Gaffe,” Adm. Zhang is a chief weapons specialist and strategist for the Chinese navy, currently serving as a professor at the Chinese military’s Defense University.

被称作中国的“Adm. Gaffe“的张少将，是中国海军著名的的武器学家和理论家，现为中国军方的国防科技大学的教授和战略家。

The most famous military face on Chinese national TV for the past decade, Adm. Zhang frequently entertains the nation with consistent miscalculations and wacky predictions.

在过去的十年中，作为中国电视台最著名的军方面孔，海军少将计算错误的和进行古怪的预测。

He asserted that the U.S. would never attack Saddam Hussein for fear of getting mired in a Stalingrad-like “people’s war” in Baghdad. That was the day before the assault started in 2003.

就在2003年攻击开始前的那一天，他宣称，美国不会攻击萨达姆以免陷入类似斯大林格勒战役般的“人民战争”

He assured the Chinese nation hours before Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi’s demise that Libyan rebels failed to locate Gaddafi’s hiding place.

就在卡扎菲卡扎菲的死亡几小时前，他让中国人相信利比亚叛军不能找到卡扎菲的藏身地点，


And one day before North Korea’s failed satellite launch April 14, the admiral announced on Chinese national television that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un would have an “80 percent probability of a launch success.”

而在4月14日朝鲜卫星发射失败一天前，海军少将在中国国家电视台宣布，朝鲜最高领导人金正恩有80％的成功率。

Two weeks ago, Adm. Zhang predicted India had only a 60 percent probability of success in launching the Agni-5 ICBM. A couple of days later, India launched the rocket, which was reported to be a 100 percent success…"

“ 两个星期前，张少将预言，印度发射烈火5洲际导弹的成功概率只有60％。两天后，印度发射了火箭，据报告，成功率100％......“

People’s Liberation Army Rear Adm. Zhang Zhaozhong make credible the idea that in the PRC senior military leaders are still promoted more for their political loyalty to the CCP than for their martial prowess.

解放军海军少将张召忠作出可信的预告，中国高级军事领导人正在促进他们对于ccp的政治忠诚而不是海军力量。

Read more: http://www.washingtontimes.com/n ... ixzz2GLqtJJMh
Follow us: @washtimes on Twitter


REPLY
Drive by December 30, 2012 at 2:44 pm
Let me guess: the PLAN is pretty sure they will dispatch the Japanese Navy rather esaily because they have had neutron bombs since late 1980s.

让我猜：这个计划肯定是，他们会容易帝迅速消灭日本海军，因为他们在20世纪80年代后期有了中子弹。

REPLY
mareo2 December 31, 2012 at 7:36 pm
@Drive
Are you impliying that despite having numeric superiority in vessels you think that the PLA Navy is so weak compared with the MSDF, that the PRC cannot hope to defeat Japan's conventional naval forces without resorting to WMDs? As a Japanese citizen I thank you for your compliment about how much defensive power we can deploy with our limited reosurces.

你是说解放军海军尽管有数量优势，但是与海上自卫队相比是如此之弱，因此中国不能打败日本的常规海军力量而不使用大规模杀伤性武器吗？作为一名日本公民，我谢谢你的夸奖，我们虽然资源有限，但是防卫很有力。

But sadly you seems to forget that the idea is "avoid a strong US military intervention" and I think that using WMDs against an ally of the US make it more likely.

但可悲的是，你似乎忘记了“避免强大的美国军事干预”，我认为对美国的盟国使用大规模杀伤性武器，更容易召至干预。

Also you seems to ignore that the CCP have a "second strike only" nuclear defense policy. I.E. Communist China only use WMDs if the PRC is bombed first.

你似乎忽略了tg的“二次打击”核防御政策，中国只有先受到核打击才会使用大规模杀伤性武器。  

But despite the fact that I think that it is very unlikely, just for the sake of exchange different opinions:
How long do you think that Japan and other countries neigboring with the PRC are going stay as countries not armed with WMDs after withness the CCP using WMDs for take control of a few islands in the border? Is this your idea of a PAX-Sinica in the Asia-Pacific region? Threatening countries with WMDs like North Korea?

但是事实上我认为这是不太可能的，只是为了交换不同的意见： 你认为看到中共使用大规模杀伤性武器控制一些岛屿之后，日本和中国周边的其他国家还能保持多久无核？这是你认为中国主导的亚太地区的秩序吗？像朝鲜那样的核威慑国家吗？

REPLY
Anon December 29, 2012 at 1:16 am
There is one CERTAIN recipe for an East Asian war – ignore all the evidence and proof, historic, legal, etc., that China has proffered, including those from non-Chinese and even Japanese experts, eg. Kiyoshi Inoue (website http://www.skycitygallery.com/japan/diaohist.html), dismiss all Chinese claims as "aggression", watch with glee the gathering emotionally-charged crowds with vivid memories of an unrepentent Japan which first annexed the islands from a weakened Qing China in the same year as Shimonoseki, picking at the scab of unhealed WW2 wounds. Of course it is unwise for all parties to go to war, but the die is cast this way – there WILL be war, especially after the breach by Japan of the Mao-Tanaka Sino-Japan agreement in changing the status quo. It is as inevitable as Giraudoux's brilliant treatise"The Trojan War Will Not Take Place". Look it up.

有个东亚战争的配方 - 忽略中国已经提供的所有的证据和证明，历史上的，合法的等等，包括那些不是中国甚至日本的专家提供的，Kiyoshi Inoue （网址http://www.skycitygallery.com/japan/diaohist.html）把中国所有的索赔当作“侵略”，看看激动的人群生动的回忆执迷不悟的日本在马关条约的同一年从清朝吞并岛屿，在二战的伤口上撒盐。各方都去打仗当然是不明智的，但木已成舟 - 战争将会爆发，特别是日本违反中日达成协议现状之后。这是不可避免的，就像Giraudoux的著名论文 “特洛伊战争不会发生”。看看吧。

REPLY
Kangmin Zheng December 29, 2012 at 2:54 am
To Japan:
You are dealing with bullies of Beijing.   You let the bullies take one inch of your territories, they take a mile.
It's best to build a strong military to defend yoursefl from the CCP aggressor.

日本：
您在和北京恶霸打交道。你退一尺，他进一丈，
最好建立一个强大的军事来抵抗tg侵略者。

REPLY
Liang1a December 29, 2012 at 7:39 am
Tony Wang wrote:
December 28, 2012 at 11:17 am

If the photo of Deng Xiaoping bowing deep in front of the Japanese flag (taken and first shown around 1979) is of any indication of the deep reverence of China's authorities for Japan, then please rest assured there won't be any action more serious than shouting and just nipping-at-the-ankle from China's authorities in all issues (not just Senkaku/Diaoyu islands') when it comes to Japan.
=============================
But it isn't.  Not anymore.  Dengist era is now at an end.  Deng picked 4 successors to follow him.  These are Jiang Zhemin and Zhou Rongji and then Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao.  Now these 4 are gone and the new team of Xi and Li are picked by him and hopefully no longer felt obliged to follow his commands of "hide the light" and "ride the American hegemonic ship and get rich quietly."  The Chinese are now speaking out more and more against Deng and with contempt.  This is obviously the prelude for the abrogation of his despicable and cowardly policies of kowtowing to foreigners.  I sense a new pride and nobility returning to the Chinese society which will no longer brook disrespect from invasive foreigners.  So, those who think Deng represents Chinese world view then they will get a big surprise.  Remember Tiananmen incidence?  That was Chinese people against Deng.  Now they are even more against Deng.  The picture the foreigners should understand to represent Chinese is the picture of Chinese patriots landing on Diaoyu Island.


Tony Wang写道：
2012年12月28日上午11:17
如果邓小平在日本国旗前深鞠躬的照片（1979年左右拍摄/首次出现）是中国政府对日本深深崇敬的象征，那么请放心，面对日本时，中国政府不会有任何比抗议和下跪更严重的行动了，（不只是尖阁列岛/钓鱼岛及其附属岛屿'）。
=================== ==========
但事实并非如此。不一样了。邓小平的时代已经走到了尽头。邓挑选了4个成功的继任者。他们是jzm，grj，hjt和wjb。现在他们都已离任，习，李二人是新的当选人，他们不愿再延续“韬光养晦”和“闷声发财”的战略。” 中国发出的声音已经越来越背离邓的理念。这显然是废除他的懦弱讨好外国人的策略的前奏。我感觉到一种新的自豪感正在回归中国社会，他们不再容忍外国人的不敬了。因此那些认为邓小平代表中国的世界观的人，会大吃一惊的。还记得tiananmen事件吗？这是中国人们在反对邓。现在他们更反对邓。外国人应该理解代表中国的图片，是中国的爱国者登陆钓鱼岛的图片。

REPLY
Robert December 29, 2012 at 1:38 pm
China has been mostly portrayed in the press as being irrational and overreacting to the purchase of the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands by the Japanese govt. My view is quite the opposite, that China's response has been rather rational and calculated, and may turn out to "buy" peace for quite a while yet.

中国在新闻中一直被描述为对购岛行为不理性和反映过激。我的观点是完全相反的，中国的反应已相当理性和合适，可能变成
“购买”和平相当长的一段时间。

Remember that the ex-Tokyo governor not only wanted to buy the islands, but he also wanted to build structures and station personnel there to solidify Japan's claims to the islands. There are others in Japan who supports the latter plan, including Abe. Both actions would effectively shatter the agreement that Deng Xiaopeng reached with Japan, to leave aside the sovereignty dispute for future generations.

记住，东京都知事不仅想购买岛屿，还想建造建筑部署人员，以巩固日本宣称的主权。此外，日本还有其他的支持者，包括安倍。这两个动作能有效地打破邓与日本达成的协议，搁置争议将争议留给后代。


While the exchange of ownership may be argued as an internal Japanese matter that doesn't really change the status quo, the latter plan is as good as closing the door for China to engage in any peaceful negotiation over the sovereignty of the islands in the long term. China is determined not to let that happen.

虽然所有权的交换可能被认为日本内部问题，并没有真正改变现状，后期的计划很好地关上了中国采取任何和平协商的大门。中国决不会让此事发生。


By mounting very vigorous objections over the purchase, China has in fact drawn a redline in the sand to prevent right-wing Japanese politicians from building structures/stationing personnel on the islands, or instigating other provocations. Also, the official Japanese stand is that there is no dispute (which technically makes it impossible for China to negotiate a settlement). Since the nationalisation of the islands, China has stepped up its patrols there to "force" the Japanese to admit that there in fact is a dispute. There are now increasing calls within Japan to recognise that the "no dispute" position is not tenable. To the extent that Japan goes to the negotiation table, war is less likely.

通过非常强烈的反对，中国画了一条红线以防止日本右翼政客在岛屿构造建筑/派驻人员，或煽动其他挑衅行为。此外，日本官方立场是不存在争议（这在技术上使得中国不可能通过谈判解决）。自从岛屿国有化以来，中国已加强了巡逻以“强制”日本承认存在争议。现在日本内部已经有呼声开始认识到，“没有争议”是站不住脚的。在一定程度上，日本回归了谈判桌，战争的可能性不大。

In any territorial dispute, the onus is on the party exercising effective control over the territory not to provoke the other party. Whether there is war or not, the ball is really in Japan's court.

在任何领土争端中，有效控制领土的一方有责任不要去招惹另一方。无论战争与否，球还在日本的法庭。

REPLY
Kanes December 29, 2012 at 5:12 pm
China, Japan and USA are not the only ones in this. Russia is very much in it too. Growing US presence in the region is a worry for Russia. That is why Russia will be dragged into it. Antogonising China and Russia will have global ramifications particularly in the Middle East where their cooperation is vital to defuse growing anti-west tendencies and the rise of Islamic militancy. For these reasons USA will not go for military confrontation with China. A war in the Pacific will AGAIN turn nuclear. The biggest direct loser will be again Japan (the participant without nuclear clout). That will be a massive economic disaster for USA.

中国，日本和美国不是卷进来的所有国家。俄罗斯也卷入了。美国在该地区不断增长的的存在感让俄罗斯很担心。这就是为什么俄罗斯会被拖入。中国和俄罗斯将具有全球影响力，特别是在中东地区的合作是至关重要的，以化解不断增长的反西方倾向和伊斯兰好战分子的崛起。由于这些原因，美国不会与中国军事对抗。若发生太平洋战争将再次变成核战。最直接的输家还是日本（没有核武器）。这对美国来说将是一个巨大的经济灾难

Events like South China Sea, the island dispute, Kuril island dispute, sinking of a South Korean covette killing close to a hundred, North Korea repeatedly trying to launch rockets/missiles, North Korea proliferating nuclear weaponry and Russian-Chinese joint military drills in the Pacific point towards a clamouring for war by a certain party. It is unthinkable they are not ready for a major confrontation and the impact of such a confrontation.
Australian economy depends on Chinese imports. War with China can ruin Australia as a serious power contender in the region.

很多事件像中国南海的岛屿争端，千岛岛屿争端，韩国军舰沉没造成近百伤亡，朝鲜多次试图发射火箭/导弹，朝鲜核武器扩张，中俄进行太平洋联合军事演习威。很难想像他们还没有为大型对抗及其影响做好准备。
澳大利亚的经济依赖中国的进口。澳大利亚与中国的战争会不利于澳大利亚成为该地区有力的竞争者。

REPLY
angelus512 December 30, 2012 at 9:19 am
You're not very clever are you son?

你不是很聪明是，你的儿子吗？

REPLY
John Chan December 31, 2012 at 1:24 pm
@angelus512,
Old man, Cold War has ended quarter century ago, where is the peace dividend the West promised? Can you get a job like everybody else instead of bombing and killing non-stop?

@ angelus512，
老人，1/4世纪以前冷战已经结束了，西方承诺的的和平红利呢？你能像其他人一样找一份工作，而不是轰炸和杀戮不止吗？

REPLY
Kanes December 29, 2012 at 5:15 pm
Even in USA senior military leaders are appointed and demoted based on their political loyalty than military prowess.

即使是在美国高级军事领导人的任命和降级也是基于他们的政治忠诚度而不是军事实力。

REPLY
elmerfudzie December 30, 2012 at 8:35 am
It's important for all of us to remain calm during this developing friction between China and the USA.  China is desperate for mineral resources and now finds itself culling the ocean floor searching for small manganese nodules, cutting deals with African leaders and their local satraps and building as many commercial nuclear reactors as fast as she possibly can, all because of her domestic dwindling reserves or non-existent natural resources (energy). China has a billion people, ninety percent of whom will need all the raw materials that Africa can spare, and all it's local ocean fisheries can yield just to keep at bay the extreme poverty and or future mass starvation(s). Military encirclement by the Western Occident powers or Naval confrontation on the high seas will not diminish or offset the stark reality that US and Chinese interests are hopelessly joined at the hip, economically speaking.

重要的是，在中美摩擦发展过程中我们所有人需要保持冷静。中国急需矿产资源，正在海床中寻找小的锰结核，与非洲领导人及其总督达成协议，以最快的速度建立尽可能多的商业核反应堆，因为她的国内储量日益减少或不存在的天然资源（能量）。中国有10亿人，其中90％的需要非洲提供的所有原料，所有的当地海洋渔业产量只能够保持在海湾的极端贫困和未来的的大饥荒。军队被西方国家军事包围，海军在公海对峙不会削弱或抵消这样的严酷现实，美国和中国的利益是密不可分的。

China now automatically buys US Treasuries directly without any go-between broker! Logistically speaking, if the Mexican drug cartel can build an underground tunnel complete with air conditioning, ventilation and rails, as was recently uncovered by the DEA?, extending between the Baja California border into the San Diego area, what's to stop Chinese sleeper cells from doing the same? and instead of their well known reputation for moving opium, would substitute it with a twenty megaton bomb? or the release of a newly undiscovered and virulent SARS virus? agricultural pest? My point is, we all must somehow manage to get along. Naval ships and deep sea ports like San Diego are sitting ducks in today's world and any military option is strictly out. of the picture. China is undergoing a civil upheaval with hundreds of B for billionaire(s) in Shanghai while the rest of the country suffers daily rioting and impoverished destitution. They need external resources on a grand scale,additional time and a breather from a petulant faction of the international community in order to overcome these internal injustices. Otherwise? civil war and the export of loose nukes, the black market-erring of advanced weaponry, blue prints and their attendant hardware scientists. Let's Go SLOW!

中国现在可以随意的直接购买美国国债，不需要任何穿针引线的经纪人！就后勤保障来说，如果在墨西哥毒品集团可以建立一个地下隧道包含空气调节，通风和导轨，怎么会被禁毒机构发现了？，在圣迭戈地区和加利福尼亚州边界之间延伸，怎样阻止中国做同样的事？，而他们他们把运送鸦片变成一个20万吨当量的炸弹呢？或释放一个新的未被发现的致命的SARS病毒？农业害虫？我的意思是，我们都必须设法相处。像圣地亚哥的海军舰艇和深海港口在今天的世界就是待宰的鸭子，任何军事选择都是严格的。中国正在经历一个社会动荡，上海拥有不计其数的亿万富翁，但是其余的地区却每天都在遭受暴乱和极度贫困。为了克服这些内部的不公正，他们需要规模宏大的外部资源，从国际社会的对立派系得到额外的时间和喘息。否则就是，内战和不受约束的核武出口，黑市的先进的武器装备，蓝图及其硬件科学家。让我们慢行！

REPLY
angelus512 December 30, 2012 at 9:18 am
How did I know John Chan could be found posting here. Is there any article John Chan doesn't post on? Chinese stooge.


我怎么知道可以在这里发现陈祖泽。陈祖泽还有未发布的文章吗？中国傀儡。

REPLY
John Chan December 31, 2012 at 12:59 pm
@angelus512,
Everybody is working hard to make this site interesting, at the same time exchanging ideas to make this world safer so that wars due to miscalculation are less likely to happen, why don’t you give a hand to help make peace of the world?

Is it because the education in the USA so poor that you even can’t make a meaningful comment?

@ angelus512，
每个人都在努力工作使这个网站有趣，同时交换意见使这个世界变得更加安全，哪样估算错误的战争不太可能发生，你为什么不帮助实现世界和平呢？
这是因为在美国的教育太差，你甚至无法做出有意义的评论吗？

REPLY
angelus512 December 30, 2012 at 9:22 am
These forums allowing for comments on articles should be banned. Its genuinely freightening to read the amount of uninformed drivel that is posted by most of the people here.
Some of these posters should change their usernamers to accurately reflect who and what they are

这些允许点评文章的论坛应该被禁止。那些不知情的胡言乱语都来自这里的绝大大数人。
这些作者应该改变他们用户名来准确地反映和它们到底是谁。

REPLY
Andrew K P Leung December 30, 2012 at 12:20 pm
The elephant in the room in this discussion is not so much Japan-China territorial disputes or even Japan-China elations but the global and regional geopolitics consequent upon the Rise of China of which Japan is only part of the equation.

在此房间讨论在的重点不中日领土争端，也不是中日关系，而是全球和区域地缘政治应对中国的崛起，日本只是其中一部分

According to the latest report by the Washington D.C -based National Intelligence Council – "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds" dated December 2012, America will lose its global dominant position but is likely to remain primus inter pares amongst all nations. By all accounts, a great re-balancing of the world will be taking shape, perhaps not dissimilar to the European "long peace" set in motion by the Congress of Vienna in 1815, which was also a mutli-polar period of rapid social, economic, technological and political change, even if many a black swan could change the game along the way.


根据华盛顿特区的美国国家情报委员会2012年12月发布的最新报告- “2030的全球趋势：另类世界，美国将失去其全球主导地位，但仍是佼佼者。总之，一个伟大的重新平衡将初具雏形，也许和1815年欧洲维也纳的国会的“长期和平”议案在没有什么不同，这也是社会，经济，技术和政治快速变革的一种多极化时期，即使许多黑天鹅可能会改变游戏前进的道路（不明白）。

In this context, the American Pivot to Asia is a part of the re-balancing global strategy. So is Japan's latest proactive regional re-positioning advanced by its new Prime Minister Abe.See Abe's latest geopolitiacal "China containment"" strategy (and he didn't mince words) in an exclusive interview with The Yomiuri Shimbun on Friday as reported in the Asian News Network -
The other missing threads in this discussion are economic dynamics at play that cannot be entirely altered by this geopolitical re-rebalancing. These relate to China's growing economic clout and a China-centred global production and supply chain on which many of China's neighbouring countries, including those with rival territorial claims, depend for jobs and economic growth.

在这种情况下，美国到亚洲的支点是重新平衡全球策略的一部分。所以日本新首相安倍忙于的是积极的区域重新定位。
看看上周五安倍接受亚洲新闻网的独家报道，他最新的地理上“遏制中国”的“战略（他并没有食言）
http://www.asianewsnet.net/home/news.php?id=40780
这个讨论缺少的其他线程的是经济动力在发挥作用，不能完全改变地缘政治重新平衡，这涉及到中国日益增长的经济影响力和中国为中心的产业和供应链，很多中国的邻居，包含那些有领土争议的，都依靠其进行就业和经济增长


See ""The World by 2030" at http://www.andrewleunginternatio ... -world-by-2030.html
Yes, we need cool heads on all sides to prevent the turbulent waters in the East China Sea from becoming a tsunami that threatens to engulf the region if not the entire world. But shrewd geopolitical heads are all doing their own calculations to maximize gains and minimize diminution of influence in this new Great Game of China's Rise – a paradigm shift that is destined to re-define the world in the first half of the 21st century.
Best regards,
Andrew

看看“2030年的世界“ http://www .andrewleunginternationalconsultants.com/new/2012/12/the-world-by-2030.html
是的，我们需要在各方面保持冷静的头脑，来阻止东海汹涌的海水成为吞没整个地区的海啸，如果而不是全世界的话。但精明的地缘政治负责人都在打自己的小算盘，以中国的崛起的大游戏中最大限度地提高收益和最大限度地减少影响缩水---一个模式的改变--将注定在21世纪的上半页重新定义世界。
最好的问候
Andrew

REPLY
breaking December 30, 2012 at 8:51 pm
USA has been known as a trouble maker for long time.
She likes to provoke and disturbs other peace and harmoni for own benefit.
Suggest that to stop buying American product.
Japanese is a cruel nation.  They must be stopped as well.


很长一段时间，美国一直被称为麻烦制造者。
她喜欢为了自己的利益而挑衅和骚扰其他和平的国家。
建议停止购买美国产品。
日本是一个残酷的国家。它们也必须被阻止。

REPLY
Anon December 31, 2012 at 2:44 am
I like the comment of Robert and Kanes, but personally i believe no matter what is reported, the ball is in the hand of the countries' leaders/president and their 'bunch' of advisers at that time of status quo tipping over. Some dumb might utter 'I want justice!' at wrong timing and for everyone else just interpret it as war. I dont believe so much in rationality thinking when status quo is challenged, but i hope everyone especially the leader learn something from the Cuba incident. As long as everyone is still able to happily nibbing away some prospects, nothing will change unless someone had an ulterior motive…

我喜欢Robert 和Kanes的评论，但我个人认为不管报告是什么，球还是在两国领导人/总统和他们的顾问的手中。一些愚蠢人会在错误的时间说：“我要正义！”其他人只会理解为战争。我不认为面对挑战时有这么多理性思维，但我希望每个人尤其是领导者能从古巴事件学习点东西。只要大家还是愉快的减少一些发展前景，什么都不会改变，除非有人别有用心...

REPLY
Lnrds December 31, 2012 at 8:41 am
If the West has to go to war, it will. The west will not stand idle and watch the whole world fall apart beacuse of China and Russia running the show. The world governed by the west would be better than a world governed by China or Russia or both of them.

如果西方国家必须参加战斗，它肯定会的。西方不会袖手旁观看着中俄让整个世界崩溃。西方统治的世界比由中国，俄罗斯或二者共同统治的要更好，

Do you all wonder why western countries get a lot of immigrants from non-western coutnries? At least when you move to to the west you can be sure that you'll be able to survive a lot better and longer than your native homeland. Sure the west is not perfect and western policies internationally is not perfect but despite all of that we're doing ok. You just have to ask any stranger at your western country of residcence that is an immigrant or came from migrant parents they have their own story as to why they left their native land.

想知道为什么西方国家的外来移民很多吗？至少你移民到西方，你的生活会比你的原住地更好更长。当然，西方也是不完美的，西方的国际政策是不完美的，但其他的我们做的很好。你只需要问问你周围的任何一个移民来的陌生人及其子女，他们为什么要离开故土，总是有原因的。


The US and largely western Europe will never be knocked off the top spot globally it will try to maintain a better world peace and world order than what China/Russia would do by a long shot. US particularly will do all it can to not be knocked down as a super power. If US fails then the world be drastically be a different one and I believe it will be much, much worse than it is now.

美国和大西欧将永远不会从全球第一把交椅上下来，比起中/俄它会努力维持一个更美好的世界和平和秩序。特别是美国作为一个超级大国，会竭尽全力不被击倒。如果美国垮台，那么世界将会极大不同，我相信会比现在糟糕的多。

REPLY
John Chan December 31, 2012 at 1:12 pm
@Lnrds,
“The west will not stand idle and watch the whole world fall apart” sounds familiar, the West had said the same thing before WWI and then again before WWII, both of the wars are the massacres on industry scale that is unprecedented of the mankind.

“ 西方不会袖手旁观，看着整个世界崩溃”听起来很熟悉，西方在一战之前说了同样的话，二战之前再次说了，两次世界都导致了前所未有人类大屠杀。

Do you think it is the time for the West stop saying “they will not stand idle and watch the whole fall apart?” The West screws up everything whenever they show up, can they for once stand idle, watch and keep its mouth shut?

你认为这时候西方应该停下来说“他们不会袖手旁观，看着整个世界崩溃？” 西方每次出现都搞砸了一切，他们能不能袖手旁观，闭上嘴巴一次吗？

我对楼主头像记忆犹新

好长好长啊，看了半天没看完

好长的文章呀。

5000年历史的种花家表示历史上分分合合早习惯了

相反 一旦美元霸权崩溃 破产的联邦政府估计会先完蛋 50个新国家在北美即将诞生 哦也

let me make this clear: i am 24 years old, a college student studying history; Should the PRC make the mistake of going to war against Japan in the interest of taking revenge or realizing any pathetic and anachronistic notions of "destined empire", then i will voluntarily, despite my previous military service, sign up and make sure that Beijing counts the body-bags going home to Chinese families bereft of their sons and daughters.

------------------------------

这个喷子参军前应该先去向参加过朝鲜战争的白头鹰老兵们打听下兔子的战斗力

躲不掉的战争

好吧，我收回以前的话，本来还以为MD网络评论是比较有水平的，结果这这个网站上，都是一大堆无意义、一厢情愿的发泄，很少有人举出具体的数据和文献资料，作为讨论的证据，大部份都是为喷而喷！

好长，终于看完了，感觉有点乱，分不清谁谁谁

白皮猪还是一如既往的傲慢啊，这帮人可能在当地也是个屌丝吧，完全一副没见过世面的样子。

White教授把这些联系到引发
毁灭性的伯罗奔尼撒战争的结构性原
因：力量，骄傲和恐惧。概括……

中国侵犯外国领土不需要任何借口任何原因。
唉，还是这个鸟样，评论的还看得明白些，砖家……

Inside China: Admiral says China can destroy destroyers…“I can send several dozen small fishing boats loaded with explosives, floating and wobbly in the water, inching toward the Zumwalt, place the explosives onto its hulls [and] blow many holes in the hull. It will be finished then. The Zumwalt is no good!” the admiral remarked with his signature optimism.

在中国境内的想法：海军少将说，中国可以摧毁驱逐舰...“我可以派出几十个载有十几人和炸药的小渔船，在水中浮动和摇摆不定，缓慢漂向朱姆沃尔特号（美国最先进驱逐舰），在其船体放置炸药炸出洞来。这样就搞定了。朱姆沃尔特并不好！“海军少将说乐观的说。

Widely known as China’s “Adm. Gaffe,” Adm. Zhang is a chief weapons specialist and strategist for the Chinese navy, currently serving as a professor at the Chinese military’s Defense University.

被称作中国的“Adm. Gaffe“的张少将，是中国海军著名的的武器学家和理论家，现为中国军方的国防科技大学的教授和战略家。

The most famous military face on Chinese national TV for the past decade, Adm. Zhang frequently entertains the nation with consistent miscalculations and wacky predictions.

在过去的十年中，作为中国电视台最著名的军方面孔，海军少将计算错误的和进行古怪的预测。

He asserted that the U.S. would never attack Saddam Hussein for fear of getting mired in a Stalingrad-like “people’s war” in Baghdad. That was the day before the assault started in 2003.

就在2003年攻击开始前的那一天，他宣称，美国不会攻击萨达姆以免陷入类似斯大林格勒战役般的“人民战争”

He assured the Chinese nation hours before Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi’s demise that Libyan rebels failed to locate Gaddafi’s hiding place.

就在卡扎菲卡扎菲的死亡几小时前，他让中国人相信利比亚叛军不能找到卡扎菲的藏身地点，


And one day before North Korea’s failed satellite launch April 14, the admiral announced on Chinese national television that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un would have an “80 percent probability of a launch success.”

而在4月14日朝鲜卫星发射失败一天前，海军少将在中国国家电视台宣布，朝鲜最高领导人金正恩有80％的成功率。

Two weeks ago, Adm. Zhang predicted India had only a 60 percent probability of success in launching the Agni-5 ICBM. A couple of days later, India launched the rocket, which was reported to be a 100 percent success…"

“ 两个星期前，张少将预言，印度发射烈火5洲际导弹的成功概率只有60％。两天后，印度发射了火箭，据报告，成功率100％......“

People’s Liberation Army Rear Adm. Zhang Zhaozhong make credible the idea that in the PRC senior military leaders are still promoted more for their political loyalty to the CCP than for their martial prowess.

解放军海军少将张召忠作出可信的预告，中国高级军事领导人正在促进他们对于ccp的政治忠诚而不是海军力量。





张少将v587{:soso_e120:}

看来TG在鬼佬眼中形象偏负面啊，没办法，国际话语权握在人家媒体手里
不过爱咋地咋地，不信美日欧能绑在一起跟TG开片

达斯维达6 发表于 2013-1-15 21:45
白皮猪还是一如既往的傲慢啊，这帮人可能在当地也是个屌丝吧，完全一副没见过世面的样子。
很难说，现在网络世界里你根本不知道坐在电脑前的是谁，那些言论的发表者很可能是日本人

总体来说，西方对中日的看法，还是带着有色眼镜，而且忘掉了历史
文化兴邦，我们的文化还需要扩大影响力

那些愚蠢的西方人，看来我族重掌地球只是时间问题了

看来某些国家的人认为自己是永远不会分裂的喽就算是日本 只要能有利益 分裂的野心家也是大大滴有哦 那帮蠢货永远都不正视自己的问题