美国向中东王室低头

爬山虎原创翻译http://www.ptfcn.com/

Washington’s bow to Mideast monarchs
 华盛顿向中东王室低头

Thomas Carothers is vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
原文作者为卡内基国际和平研究院副主席

Just after the first anniversary of the onset of the Arab Spring, the Obama administration announced in December an enormous arms sale to Saudi Arabia, with a price tag greater than the annual gross domestic product of more than half the countries in the world. The administration hailed the sale as a “historic achievement” that “reinforces the strong and enduring relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia.” The close juxtaposition of the anniversary and the apparent repair of the temporary rough patch in U.S.-Saudi relations highlights crucial overlooked realities about the Arab Spring and the U.S. response.

阿拉伯之春周年志刚过，奥巴马政府即于12月份宣布对沙特进行大规模军售，其金额超过世界上过半数国家一年的GDP。美国政府将此次军售赞为＂巩固美沙两国悠久、坚定关系的历史性成就＂。阿拉伯之春周年与美沙言归于好两个事件相继发生，突显出阿拉伯之春与美国反应中那些被人忽视的现实。

Although accounts of the Arab Spring often refer to a wave of political change washing across the Middle East, the reality is otherwise. The wave has bisected the region, swamping one half while leaving the other barely damp. Governments in the majority of the region’s republics, namely Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria and Yemen, have been toppled or have faced serious domestic siege. In startling contrast, however, all of the region’s monarchies appear secure, with the possible exception of Bahrain. Most have enough oil money to keep their citizens well off, and some have a special religious legitimacy.

有关阿拉伯之春的叙述多将其形容为席卷中东大地的政治变革大潮，但事实并非如此。中东地区一分为二，一半被变革洪流吞没，另一半不过溅了点水花。中东大多数共和国的政府，如突尼斯、埃及、利比亚、叙利亚和也门等，或被颠覆或面临巨大危机。与此判若云泥的是，所有的中东君主国家除巴林外似乎均毫发无损。这些君主国大多拥有足够的石油钞票保证国民富足的生活，有的还依靠特殊的宗教正统。

We should keep in mind that the various autocrats in the region who fell from power last year also looked to be well-entrenched, for all sorts of solid and frequently elaborated reasons, right up until the moment they no longer were. In this time of political surprises, which often stem from sudden, roiling popular protests, betting on reliable autocrats is more perilous than ever.

我们应牢记，由于各种耳熟能详的原因，去年倒台的多个中东独夫直到最后一刻仍保持着根基稳固的形象。在这个风云变幻的年代——时常由突如其来的激烈民运引发——在稳坐江山的中东君主身上下注，风险空前。

President Obama says that he recognizes this reality. He declared in May that “after decades of accepting the world as it is in the region, we have a chance to pursue the world as it should be” and that it will be “the policy of the United States to promote reform across the region.” And it is true that where political upheaval has hit, the United States has usually backed democratic change, sometimes actively, as in Libya; sometimes hesitantly, as in Egypt. But where autocratic stability continues to reign, the administration sticks to the decades-old U.S. policy of uncritical support for friendly dictators who are helpful on matters of security and economics.

奥巴马称其已意识到这一现实。他在去年五月份宣布：＂在容忍中东现状数十年之后，我们有机会追求一个理想社会。＂他还表示：＂美国的政策是在该地区推动改革。＂诚然，当政治动荡袭来，美国通常支持主张民主变革的一派，有时行动敏捷，如在利比亚；有时左顾右盼，如在埃及。但当独裁统治巍然耸立时，美国政府则奉行一个有着数十年历史的政策：即无保留地支持对美国安全与经济有益的友善独夫。

When the government of Bahrain cracked down harshly on the massive protest movement within its borders last spring, the administration basically folded. The United States was unwilling to risk jeopardizing the convenient Persian Gulf home of the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet for the sake of its commitment to Arab democracy. Saudi Arabia’s military participation in Bahrain’s crackdown and its steadfast opposition to even a glimmer of liberalization within its own borders has not deterred the administration from enthusiastically reaffirming the intimacy of U.S.-Saudi ties. Consider also that, despite having taken no serious steps toward democratic reform in response to popular demands for change, Jordan’s King Abdullah has received only praise and aid from Washington.

去年春天，当巴林政府在其境内残酷镇压大规模民运时，美国政府基本上充耳不闻。美国不愿冒着破坏海军第五舰队驻中东基地的风险，转而支持阿拉伯民主运动。沙特军方参与了巴林镇压、在本国皆不允许丝毫自由化，如此种种并未影响美国政府加强与沙特亲密关系的热情。此外，尽管约旦未应民运之要求开展民主改革，美国政府仍对约旦国王褒奖有加。

A stark division underlies U.S. policy in the Middle East. Serious efforts to bolster democratic transitions in parts of the region are carried out alongside firm support for most of the remaining non-democratic governments. This two-faced stance, little remarked on in Washington but glaringly evident in the region, badly undercuts the persuasiveness of our democracy promotion efforts.

美国的中东政策分裂严重：在中东某些地区奋力推行民主变革，与此同时，坚定不移地支持现存非民主政府。这一两面派的立场在华盛顿鲜被提及，但在中东地区则昭然若揭，严重损及我们倡导民主行动的说服力。

The realpolitik logic that drives the continuing attachment to friendly Arab monarchies is clear enough. The interests at stake — from oil to counterterrorism to containing Iran — are weighty. Yet the logic is so clear precisely because it is so familiar. It is exactly the same logic that we hurriedly disavowed last year after it suddenly looked terribly hollow in country after country.

与中东友好君王保持紧密关系的现实政治逻辑相当清晰，从石油到反恐再到遏制伊朗等美国利益皆十分重大。但是该逻辑之所以清晰正是由于我们对之十分熟悉。去年，当这个逻辑在一个接一个的国家里形容枯槁之时，我们弃之尤恐不及。

The United States regretted then being caught so unprepared for historic change and having done so little to pave the ground toward a more democratic Middle East. We lamented our failures to push harder on autocratic friends to take reform seriously, to widen and deepen our support for pro-democratic civil society activists, and to broaden our knowledge of and dialogue with new societal forces that we understood only dimly.

美国当时懊悔没有为历史性变革做好准备，也没有为民主中东奔走铺路。我们哀叹未曾用心促使独夫友人严肃地对待改革、未曾扩大与加强对民运人士的支持、未曾拓宽对陌生新兴社会力量的了解与沟通。

If only we had taken seriously the daunting but not insurmountable challenge of finding a way to combine useful partnerships with regional autocrats with real attention to their political liabilities.

悔当初！我们未能想方设法地将中东独夫之功利性伙伴关系与其政治包袱相结合。

So as we move beyond the first anniversary of the Arab Spring, we might pause from congratulatory toasts to getting U.S.-Saudi relations back on track and think hard about how to avoid potential future regrets in a region that has barely opened a historic period of change.

跨过阿拉伯之春周年，我们或许应暂缓为美沙欢好举杯庆贺，我们应静心思考如何避免在刚刚开启历史变革新篇章的中东地区再生遗憾。

原文发表于2月3日的《华盛顿邮报》http://www.washingtonpost.com/op ... _story.html?hpid=z7

爬山虎原创翻译http://www.ptfcn.com/

Washington’s bow to Mideast monarchs
 华盛顿向中东王室低头

Thomas Carothers is vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
原文作者为卡内基国际和平研究院副主席

Just after the first anniversary of the onset of the Arab Spring, the Obama administration announced in December an enormous arms sale to Saudi Arabia, with a price tag greater than the annual gross domestic product of more than half the countries in the world. The administration hailed the sale as a “historic achievement” that “reinforces the strong and enduring relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia.” The close juxtaposition of the anniversary and the apparent repair of the temporary rough patch in U.S.-Saudi relations highlights crucial overlooked realities about the Arab Spring and the U.S. response.

阿拉伯之春周年志刚过，奥巴马政府即于12月份宣布对沙特进行大规模军售，其金额超过世界上过半数国家一年的GDP。美国政府将此次军售赞为＂巩固美沙两国悠久、坚定关系的历史性成就＂。阿拉伯之春周年与美沙言归于好两个事件相继发生，突显出阿拉伯之春与美国反应中那些被人忽视的现实。

Although accounts of the Arab Spring often refer to a wave of political change washing across the Middle East, the reality is otherwise. The wave has bisected the region, swamping one half while leaving the other barely damp. Governments in the majority of the region’s republics, namely Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria and Yemen, have been toppled or have faced serious domestic siege. In startling contrast, however, all of the region’s monarchies appear secure, with the possible exception of Bahrain. Most have enough oil money to keep their citizens well off, and some have a special religious legitimacy.

有关阿拉伯之春的叙述多将其形容为席卷中东大地的政治变革大潮，但事实并非如此。中东地区一分为二，一半被变革洪流吞没，另一半不过溅了点水花。中东大多数共和国的政府，如突尼斯、埃及、利比亚、叙利亚和也门等，或被颠覆或面临巨大危机。与此判若云泥的是，所有的中东君主国家除巴林外似乎均毫发无损。这些君主国大多拥有足够的石油钞票保证国民富足的生活，有的还依靠特殊的宗教正统。

We should keep in mind that the various autocrats in the region who fell from power last year also looked to be well-entrenched, for all sorts of solid and frequently elaborated reasons, right up until the moment they no longer were. In this time of political surprises, which often stem from sudden, roiling popular protests, betting on reliable autocrats is more perilous than ever.

我们应牢记，由于各种耳熟能详的原因，去年倒台的多个中东独夫直到最后一刻仍保持着根基稳固的形象。在这个风云变幻的年代——时常由突如其来的激烈民运引发——在稳坐江山的中东君主身上下注，风险空前。

President Obama says that he recognizes this reality. He declared in May that “after decades of accepting the world as it is in the region, we have a chance to pursue the world as it should be” and that it will be “the policy of the United States to promote reform across the region.” And it is true that where political upheaval has hit, the United States has usually backed democratic change, sometimes actively, as in Libya; sometimes hesitantly, as in Egypt. But where autocratic stability continues to reign, the administration sticks to the decades-old U.S. policy of uncritical support for friendly dictators who are helpful on matters of security and economics.

奥巴马称其已意识到这一现实。他在去年五月份宣布：＂在容忍中东现状数十年之后，我们有机会追求一个理想社会。＂他还表示：＂美国的政策是在该地区推动改革。＂诚然，当政治动荡袭来，美国通常支持主张民主变革的一派，有时行动敏捷，如在利比亚；有时左顾右盼，如在埃及。但当独裁统治巍然耸立时，美国政府则奉行一个有着数十年历史的政策：即无保留地支持对美国安全与经济有益的友善独夫。

When the government of Bahrain cracked down harshly on the massive protest movement within its borders last spring, the administration basically folded. The United States was unwilling to risk jeopardizing the convenient Persian Gulf home of the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet for the sake of its commitment to Arab democracy. Saudi Arabia’s military participation in Bahrain’s crackdown and its steadfast opposition to even a glimmer of liberalization within its own borders has not deterred the administration from enthusiastically reaffirming the intimacy of U.S.-Saudi ties. Consider also that, despite having taken no serious steps toward democratic reform in response to popular demands for change, Jordan’s King Abdullah has received only praise and aid from Washington.

去年春天，当巴林政府在其境内残酷镇压大规模民运时，美国政府基本上充耳不闻。美国不愿冒着破坏海军第五舰队驻中东基地的风险，转而支持阿拉伯民主运动。沙特军方参与了巴林镇压、在本国皆不允许丝毫自由化，如此种种并未影响美国政府加强与沙特亲密关系的热情。此外，尽管约旦未应民运之要求开展民主改革，美国政府仍对约旦国王褒奖有加。

A stark division underlies U.S. policy in the Middle East. Serious efforts to bolster democratic transitions in parts of the region are carried out alongside firm support for most of the remaining non-democratic governments. This two-faced stance, little remarked on in Washington but glaringly evident in the region, badly undercuts the persuasiveness of our democracy promotion efforts.

美国的中东政策分裂严重：在中东某些地区奋力推行民主变革，与此同时，坚定不移地支持现存非民主政府。这一两面派的立场在华盛顿鲜被提及，但在中东地区则昭然若揭，严重损及我们倡导民主行动的说服力。

The realpolitik logic that drives the continuing attachment to friendly Arab monarchies is clear enough. The interests at stake — from oil to counterterrorism to containing Iran — are weighty. Yet the logic is so clear precisely because it is so familiar. It is exactly the same logic that we hurriedly disavowed last year after it suddenly looked terribly hollow in country after country.

与中东友好君王保持紧密关系的现实政治逻辑相当清晰，从石油到反恐再到遏制伊朗等美国利益皆十分重大。但是该逻辑之所以清晰正是由于我们对之十分熟悉。去年，当这个逻辑在一个接一个的国家里形容枯槁之时，我们弃之尤恐不及。

The United States regretted then being caught so unprepared for historic change and having done so little to pave the ground toward a more democratic Middle East. We lamented our failures to push harder on autocratic friends to take reform seriously, to widen and deepen our support for pro-democratic civil society activists, and to broaden our knowledge of and dialogue with new societal forces that we understood only dimly.

美国当时懊悔没有为历史性变革做好准备，也没有为民主中东奔走铺路。我们哀叹未曾用心促使独夫友人严肃地对待改革、未曾扩大与加强对民运人士的支持、未曾拓宽对陌生新兴社会力量的了解与沟通。

If only we had taken seriously the daunting but not insurmountable challenge of finding a way to combine useful partnerships with regional autocrats with real attention to their political liabilities.

悔当初！我们未能想方设法地将中东独夫之功利性伙伴关系与其政治包袱相结合。

So as we move beyond the first anniversary of the Arab Spring, we might pause from congratulatory toasts to getting U.S.-Saudi relations back on track and think hard about how to avoid potential future regrets in a region that has barely opened a historic period of change.

跨过阿拉伯之春周年，我们或许应暂缓为美沙欢好举杯庆贺，我们应静心思考如何避免在刚刚开启历史变革新篇章的中东地区再生遗憾。

原文发表于2月3日的《华盛顿邮报》http://www.washingtonpost.com/op ... _story.html?hpid=z7