南棒子先帝爷朴正熙之长公主告天下书（附翻译）——军备 ...

美国《外交事务》双月刊链接http://www.foreignaffairs.com/ar ... a-new-kind-of-korea

这篇棒子八股翻得俺扶墙，看官要有耐心啊，评论要给力啊，斑竹要加分啊

作者：朴槿惠 韩国前总统朴正熙的长女

On August 15, 1974, South Korea's Independence Day, I lost my mother, then the country's first lady, to an assassin acting under orders from North Korea. That day was a tragedy not only for me but also for all Koreans. Despite the unbearable pain of that event, I have wished and worked for enduring peace on the Korean Peninsula ever since. But 37 years later, the conflict on the peninsula persists. The long-simmering tensions between North and South Korea resulted in an acute crisis in November 2010. For the first time since the Korean War, North Korea shelled South Korean territory, killing soldiers and civilians on the island of Yeonpyeong.

1974年8月15日，韩国国庆，朝鲜刺客得手，母后薨，天下缟素。忍不能忍之悲痛，本宫祈祝高丽太平，呼号奔走已逾三十七载，然半岛内纷争犹未平息。

南北长年对峙，于去年十一月演化成严重危机：自韩战以来, 朝鲜首次炮轰韩国领域，致延平岛军民损折。

Only two weeks earlier, South Korea had become the first country outside the G-8 to chair and host a G-20 summit, welcoming world leaders to its capital, Seoul. These events starkly illustrated the dual reality of the Korean Peninsula and of East Asia more broadly. On the one hand, the Korean Peninsula remains volatile. The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction by North Korea, the modernization of conventional forces across the region, and nascent great-power rivalries highlight the endemic security dilemmas that plague this part of Asia. On the other hand, South Korea's extraordinary development, sometimes called the Miracle on the Han River, has, alongside China's rise, become a major driver of the global economy over the past decade.

两周前，韩国成为首个举办 G20峰会的非G8国家。各国元首云集京城，彰显朝鲜半岛乃至东亚的两大现实：其一、半岛局势紧张依旧。朝鲜核武化、区域内军备现代化、新贵诸强勾心斗角，无不揭示东亚深陷安全困局。其二、韩国超凡的发展——又称汉江奇迹——与中国的崛起一道，成为十多年来推动世界经济成长的主要力量。

（这金贴得，简直是弹晴落目，翻译工兵拜服，公主V5！另容小的斗胆进谏，driver改成drive吧，惶恐惶恐…）

These two contrasting trends exist side by side in Asia, the information revolution, globalization, and democratization clashing with the competitive instincts of the region's major powers. To ensure that the first set of forces triumphs, policymakers in Asia and in the international community must not only take advantage of existing initiatives but also adopt a bolder and more creative approach to achieving security. Without such an effort, military brinkmanship may only increase -- with repercussions well beyond Asia. For this reason, forging trust and sustainable peace on the Korean Peninsula represents one of the most urgent and crucial tasks on Asia's list of outstanding security challenges.

这两大截然不同的趋势在亚洲并存：信息革命、全球化、民主化进程与本地区诸强的竞争本能相互碰撞。为使前者胜出，亚洲及国际社会的决策者们不但应充分利用已有的机制，还应采取更大胆更有创新力的手段来实现安全稳定。否则，军事冒险家们只会愈行愈勇 ——酿成的后果将远超亚洲。因此，打造互信和半岛内的长期和平是亚洲安全行动表上最紧迫、最重要的任务之一。

INTRODUCING TRUST
互信

A lack of trust has long undermined attempts at genuine reconciliation between North and South Korea. What little confidence did exist between the two countries virtually disappeared last year, after North Korea destroyed the South Korean naval ship Cheonan in March and brazenly attacked Yeonpyeong Island in November. North Korea also revealed that it had constructed a sophisticated uranium-enrichment facility, directly contravening commitments it had undertaken, most recently in the September 19, 2005, joint statement of the six-party talks, to forbid uranium enrichment and abandon its nuclear weapons program.

缺乏互信，多年来一直阻碍南北真正地合解。在去年朝鲜击沉韩国军舰、炮轰延平岛之后，两国间仅有的一点信心荡然无存。朝鲜还承认它已修建了一个先进的铀浓缩设施，直接违背其在2005年9月19日六方联合宣言中所作的承诺，即停止铀浓缩活动并放弃其核武项目。

As one Korean proverb goes, one-handed applause is impossible. By the same token, peace between the two Koreas will not be possible without a combined effort. For more than half a century, North Korea has blatantly disregarded international norms. But even if Seoul must respond forcefully to Pyongyang's provocations, it must also remain open to new opportunities for improving relations between the two sides. Precisely because trust is at a low point these days, South Korea has a chance to rebuild it. In order to transform the Korean Peninsula from a zone of conflict into a zone of trust, South Korea should adopt a policy of "trustpolitik," establishing mutually binding expectations based on global norms.

根据韩国俗语＂一个巴掌拍不响＂，半岛的和平需要双方的共同努力。（工兵又要跳出来，公主您确定？）半个多世纪以来，朝鲜公然背弃国际准则。然而，韩国在强硬回击朝方挑衅时，还应该对改善双边关系的新机遇保持开放态度。正因为双边互信正处于一个低点，韩国有机会重建之。为了将朝鲜半岛从冲突地区转变成互信地区，韩国应采取＂互信政治＂，建立基于国际准则的、对双边都有约束力的预期。

"Trustpolitik" does not mean unconditional or one-sided trust without verification. Nor does it mean forgetting North Korea's numerous transgressions or rewarding the country with new incentives. Instead, it should be comprised of two coexisting strands: first, North Korea must keep its agreements made with South Korea and the international community to establish a minimum level of trust, and second, there must be assured consequences for actions that breach the peace. To ensure stability, trustpolitik should be applied consistently from issue to issue based on verifiable actions, and steps should not be taken for mere political expediency.

＂互信政治＂并不意味着无条件的或单边盲目轻信，也不意味着忘记朝鲜的种种劣行、予其新的好处。相反地，＂互信政治＂包括并存的两方面：其一、朝鲜必须恪守它与韩国及国际社会达成的协议，以建立最低限度的信任。其二、破坏和平的行为必有后果。为保证稳定，＂互信政治＂必须视可证实的行为而定、持续稳定地运用于各种问题，此外不可仅为了政治便利而行事。

（trustpolitik should be applied consistently from issue to issue based on verifiable actions 公主是不是逻辑混乱？＂互信政治＂又要持续稳定地运用，又要视可证实的行为而定。翻译工兵才疏学浅，表示圣意难测…）

Building trust between competing nations has been accomplished before. The United States and China overcame deep mutual suspicions to establish relations in the 1970s. Egypt and Israel signed a peace accord in 1979 after a gradual process of trust-building between the two sides, and the agreement remains a linchpin of stability for the entire Middle East, even after the change in regime in Egypt earlier this year. In the 1950s, European nations overcame a half century of warfare to create what would later become the European Union.

在相互竞争的国家间建立互信曾有成功的例子。如上世纪七十年代中美克服相互猜忌建交；埃及和以色列在逐步建立互信后签署的1979年和平协定，即使在今年初埃及政权变化之后，该和平协定仍是中东稳定的基石；上世纪五十年代，欧洲克服半个世纪的战乱建立起欧盟的前身。

Although Asia's cultural, historical, and geopolitical environment is unique, the continent can learn from these precedents, particularly Europe's experience. To begin with, Asian states must slow down their accelerating arms buildup, reduce military tensions, and establish a cooperative security regime that would complement existing bilateral agreements and help resolve persistent tensions in the region. In addition, they should strengthen existing multilateral regimes -- such as the ASEAN Regional Forum, a formal dialogue among 27 nations on East Asian security issues; the trilateral summits through which China, Japan, and South Korea coordinate their shared policy concerns; and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. Together, these efforts would help form a more resilient Asian security network and build trust and security on the Korean Peninsula. Such endeavors will undoubtedly take time. But if North and South Korea and other Asian countries can institutionalize confidence-building measures, they will bolster the odds that economic and political cooperation can overcome military and security competition.

虽然亚洲拥有独特的文化、历史、地缘政治环境，该大陆仍可效仿这些先例，尤其是欧洲的经历。首先，亚洲国家应当为不断加速的军备建设降温，缓解军事紧张，建立一个安全协调机制，以履行已有的双边协议并缓和本地区的持续紧张。此外，亚洲各国应加强已有的多边机制，如东盟地区论坛——关注于东亚安全事务的27国对话机构；中日韩三方峰会；亚太经合组织。多管齐下，这些努力有助于建立更坚韧的亚洲安全网络和打造半岛内的互信与安全。这些努力显然费时费力，但如果南北朝鲜以及其它亚洲能够建立互信机制，他们将提高政经合作战胜军备竞赛的机率。

以下就在讲如何对朝鲜胡萝卜加大棒，两手都要抓，两手都要硬。朝鲜乖乖的就有吃的，敢闹，大棒伺候，假以时日，互信政治就建立起来了。公主太啰嗦，略五百字…

BRINGING PYONGYANG INTO THE FOLD


To establish trustpolitik on the Korean Peninsula, South Korea should adapt its past strategies toward North Korea. Previous governments in Seoul have alternatively attempted to engage and deter Pyongyang. The ones that have emphasized accommodation and inter-Korean solidarity have placed inordinate hope in the idea that if the South provided sustained assistance to the North, the North would abandon its bellicose strategy toward the South. But after years of such attempts, no fundamental change has come. Meanwhile, the governments in Seoul that have placed a greater emphasis on pressuring North Korea have not been able to influence its behavior in a meaningful way, either.

A new policy is needed: an alignment policy, which should be buttressed by public consensus and remain constant in the face of political transitions and unexpected domestic or international events. Such a policy would not mean adopting a middle-of-the-road approach; it would involve aligning South Korea's security with its cooperation with the North and inter-Korean dialogue with parallel international efforts. An alignment policy would entail assuming a tough line against North Korea sometimes and a flexible policy open to negotiations other times.

For example, if North Korea launches another military strike against the South, Seoul must respond immediately to ensure that Pyongyang understands the costs of provocation. Conversely, if North Korea takes steps toward genuine reconciliation, such as reaffirming its commitment to existing agreements, then the South should match its efforts. An alignment policy will, over time, reinforce trustpolitik.

To implement such an alignment policy, South Korea must first demonstrate, through a robust and credible deterrent posture, that it will no longer tolerate North Korea's increasingly violent provocations. It must show Pyongyang that the North will pay a heavy price for its military and nuclear threats. This approach is not new, but in order to change the current situation, it must be enforced more vigorously than in the past.

In particular, Seoul has to mobilize the international community to help it dismantle Pyongyang's nuclear program. Under no circumstances can South Korea accept the existence of a nuclear-armed North Korea. North Korea's nuclearization also poses a major threat to the international community because Pyongyang could develop long-range missiles with nuclear warheads or transfer nuclear technologies and materials abroad. Through a combination of credible deterrence, strenuous persuasion, and more effective negotiation strategies, Seoul and the international community must make Pyongyang realize that it can survive and even prosper without nuclear weapons. If North Korea undertakes additional nuclear tests, South Korea must consider all possible responses in consultation with its principal ally, the United States, and other key global partners.

特别地，汉城应该动员国际社会助其销毁平壤的核武项目。韩国绝对不会接受一个拥有核武器的朝鲜。朝鲜的核武化对国际社会也是一大威胁——平壤可研发带核弹头的远程导弹或将核技术与材料向海外转让。通过威慑、劝说以及更有效的谈判策略，汉城与国际社会必须让平壤明白，没有核武器朝鲜同样可以生存甚至变得繁荣。如果朝鲜执意再次进行核试验，韩国将与主要盟友美国及其它国家商讨一切
可能的对策。

Even as Seoul and its allies strengthen their posture against North Korea's militarism and nuclear brinkmanship, they must also be prepared to offer Pyongyang a new beginning. Trust can be built on incremental gains, such as joint projects for enhanced economic cooperation, humanitarian assistance from the South to the North, and new trade and investment opportunities. When I met the North Korean leader Kim Jong Il in Pyongyang in 2002, we discussed a range of issues, including a Eurasian railway project that would reconnect the Trans-Korean Railway, which has been severed since the Korean War, and link it to the Trans-Siberian and Trans-China lines. Reconnecting the Korean railway would be a testament to mutual development and inter-Korean peace. And if that line were then tied to other regional lines, the effort could help develop China's three northeastern provinces and Russia's Far East -- and, in turn, perhaps transform the Korean Peninsula into a conduit for regional trade. Although tensions have delayed further discussions about the railway project in recent years, these could be restarted as a means of building trust on vital security matters.

在韩国与其盟友以强硬姿态应对朝方军事冒险的同时，我们还应做好给予朝鲜一个全新开端的准备。互信可以逐步建立，比如旨在提高经济合作的合资项目、南方向北方提供的人道主义援助、新的贸易和投资机遇等。02年我与金二胖会面时谈到一系列的问题，其中包括亚欧铁路工程：重新连接自朝鲜战争以来就被切断的南北朝鲜铁路+西伯利亚铁路+中国铁路。此举将是半岛内和平与共同发展的见证。如果当年能够实施这一计划，本可以有助于中国东北三省和俄罗斯远东地区的发展，反过来，又可以将朝鲜半岛建成本地区的贸易通道。虽然近年来的局势使该计划搁浅，但重启这一计划可作为建立互信的手段之一。

The rest of the world can help with these efforts. To begin with, strengthening the indispensable alliance between South Korea and the United States should send unequivocal signals to North Korea that only responsible behavior can ensure the regime's survival and a better life for its citizens. The EU is not a member of the six-party nuclear talks, but the model of regional cooperation that Europe represents can contribute to peace building on the Korean Peninsula. Asian countries can devise ways to adopt a cooperative security arrangement based on the model of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the world's largest intergovernmental security organization. The OSCE process of fostering security and economic cooperation could be adapted to Northeast Asia: offering guarantees that North Korea would receive substantial economic and diplomatic benefits if it changed its behavior would reassure its leaders that the regime can survive without nuclear weapons.

Given its role as North Korea's principal economic benefactor and ally, China can play a critical part in prompting Pyongyang to change. Chinese efforts to encourage reforms in North Korea could be spurred by a more cooperative U.S.-Chinese relationship. As that relationship deepens, Pyongyang's outlier status will increasingly undermine Beijing's desire to improve its ties with Washington. Conversely, tensions between China and the United States might only increase North Korea's intransigence, allowing it to play the two countries off each other.

作为朝鲜的主要金主和盟友，中国在推动朝鲜转变上可以扮演至关重要的角色。中美关系的增进可促使中国对朝鲜实施干预；中美越亲密，朝鲜就越显得碍手碍脚。反之中美闹僵只会让朝鲜变得更加顽固，使它有机会离间中美两国。

Because South Korea maintains both a critical alliance with the United States and a strategic partnership with China, confidence building on the Korean Peninsula would also improve trust between Beijing and Washington, creating a virtuous cycle in which a more cooperative U.S.-Chinese relationship would bolster more positive inter-Korean relations and vice versa. Although North Korea continues to depend heavily on China's economic and diplomatic protection, China's growing global stature and interest in improving its ties with the United States may limit its support for North Korea if Pyongyang continues to threaten the region's stability. North Korea may finally join the family of nations if it realizes that assistance from China cannot last forever.

因为韩国与美国保持着至关紧要的同盟关系，又与中国有着战略性的伙伴关系，在朝鲜半岛建立互信有助于推动中美两国的互信，中美互信又可以反过来推动南北关系，从而形成一个良性循环。虽然朝鲜继续依仗中国的经济和外交保护，但随着中国国际地位的提升、对美关系重要性的增加，在朝鲜继续危及地区稳定的情况下，中国会减少对朝鲜的支持。朝鲜在意识到来自中国的帮助不会天长地久时，有可能最终加入国际大家庭。

往下越发啰嗦，俺罢手了

MAKING THE RIGHT CHOICE

The dual realities of the Korean Peninsula -- prosperity and military tension -- have coexisted for the past 60 years. In the midst of war and the bleakest of circumstances, South Korea received critical assistance from the United States and the international community that propelled its economic development and its democratization. Its progress was so fast, in fact, that in 2009 it became the first underdeveloped, aid-recipient country to become a member of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's Development Assistance Committee. South Korea adheres to denuclearization, participates in countering the proliferation of other weapons of mass destruction, and increasingly contributes to global initiatives, such as reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan and antipiracy naval operations around the Horn of Africa.

Enduring trust between the international community and South Korea was instrumental to Seoul's development. To achieve the same outcome with North Korea, South Korea should adopt a principle of trustpolitik and an alignment policy. Once the vestiges of the harsh confrontation between Seoul and Pyongyang are overcome, the Korean Peninsula could emerge as a hub for cooperation and economic prosperity. Should the North relinquish its nuclear weapons and behave peacefully, it could work with the South to enhance economic cooperation between the two countries through special economic zones and the free movement of goods and people, gain development assistance from institutions such as the World Bank, and attract foreign investment. Such developments would contribute significantly to the establishment of a more enduring peace on the Korean Peninsula, and they might expedite the peninsula's unification as well as encourage the gradual institutionalization of economic and security cooperation in Northeast Asia. A democratic, unified Korea would be an economic and security asset to the region.

Many assert that in the coming years the Korean Peninsula will face growing uncertainty. But Koreans have shown that they can turn challenges into historic opportunities. In the 1960s and 1970s, South Korea chose to develop itself through rapid industrialization. In the 1990s, it expanded and deepened ties with countries and regions with which it had shared little during the Cold War, such as China, eastern Europe, and Russia. Over the last decade, it has emerged as one of Asia's most vibrant democracies. Today, South Korea stands ready to work with the United States and other members of the international community to ensure that North Korea follows the same path.

工兵对这位长公主、现任韩国议员的印象是：天马行空、言之无物。大家怎么看？美国《外交事务》双月刊链接http://www.foreignaffairs.com/ar ... a-new-kind-of-korea

这篇棒子八股翻得俺扶墙，看官要有耐心啊，评论要给力啊，斑竹要加分啊

作者：朴槿惠 韩国前总统朴正熙的长女

On August 15, 1974, South Korea's Independence Day, I lost my mother, then the country's first lady, to an assassin acting under orders from North Korea. That day was a tragedy not only for me but also for all Koreans. Despite the unbearable pain of that event, I have wished and worked for enduring peace on the Korean Peninsula ever since. But 37 years later, the conflict on the peninsula persists. The long-simmering tensions between North and South Korea resulted in an acute crisis in November 2010. For the first time since the Korean War, North Korea shelled South Korean territory, killing soldiers and civilians on the island of Yeonpyeong.

1974年8月15日，韩国国庆，朝鲜刺客得手，母后薨，天下缟素。忍不能忍之悲痛，本宫祈祝高丽太平，呼号奔走已逾三十七载，然半岛内纷争犹未平息。

南北长年对峙，于去年十一月演化成严重危机：自韩战以来, 朝鲜首次炮轰韩国领域，致延平岛军民损折。

Only two weeks earlier, South Korea had become the first country outside the G-8 to chair and host a G-20 summit, welcoming world leaders to its capital, Seoul. These events starkly illustrated the dual reality of the Korean Peninsula and of East Asia more broadly. On the one hand, the Korean Peninsula remains volatile. The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction by North Korea, the modernization of conventional forces across the region, and nascent great-power rivalries highlight the endemic security dilemmas that plague this part of Asia. On the other hand, South Korea's extraordinary development, sometimes called the Miracle on the Han River, has, alongside China's rise, become a major driver of the global economy over the past decade.

两周前，韩国成为首个举办 G20峰会的非G8国家。各国元首云集京城，彰显朝鲜半岛乃至东亚的两大现实：其一、半岛局势紧张依旧。朝鲜核武化、区域内军备现代化、新贵诸强勾心斗角，无不揭示东亚深陷安全困局。其二、韩国超凡的发展——又称汉江奇迹——与中国的崛起一道，成为十多年来推动世界经济成长的主要力量。

（这金贴得，简直是弹晴落目，翻译工兵拜服，公主V5！另容小的斗胆进谏，driver改成drive吧，惶恐惶恐…）

These two contrasting trends exist side by side in Asia, the information revolution, globalization, and democratization clashing with the competitive instincts of the region's major powers. To ensure that the first set of forces triumphs, policymakers in Asia and in the international community must not only take advantage of existing initiatives but also adopt a bolder and more creative approach to achieving security. Without such an effort, military brinkmanship may only increase -- with repercussions well beyond Asia. For this reason, forging trust and sustainable peace on the Korean Peninsula represents one of the most urgent and crucial tasks on Asia's list of outstanding security challenges.

这两大截然不同的趋势在亚洲并存：信息革命、全球化、民主化进程与本地区诸强的竞争本能相互碰撞。为使前者胜出，亚洲及国际社会的决策者们不但应充分利用已有的机制，还应采取更大胆更有创新力的手段来实现安全稳定。否则，军事冒险家们只会愈行愈勇 ——酿成的后果将远超亚洲。因此，打造互信和半岛内的长期和平是亚洲安全行动表上最紧迫、最重要的任务之一。

INTRODUCING TRUST
互信

A lack of trust has long undermined attempts at genuine reconciliation between North and South Korea. What little confidence did exist between the two countries virtually disappeared last year, after North Korea destroyed the South Korean naval ship Cheonan in March and brazenly attacked Yeonpyeong Island in November. North Korea also revealed that it had constructed a sophisticated uranium-enrichment facility, directly contravening commitments it had undertaken, most recently in the September 19, 2005, joint statement of the six-party talks, to forbid uranium enrichment and abandon its nuclear weapons program.

缺乏互信，多年来一直阻碍南北真正地合解。在去年朝鲜击沉韩国军舰、炮轰延平岛之后，两国间仅有的一点信心荡然无存。朝鲜还承认它已修建了一个先进的铀浓缩设施，直接违背其在2005年9月19日六方联合宣言中所作的承诺，即停止铀浓缩活动并放弃其核武项目。

As one Korean proverb goes, one-handed applause is impossible. By the same token, peace between the two Koreas will not be possible without a combined effort. For more than half a century, North Korea has blatantly disregarded international norms. But even if Seoul must respond forcefully to Pyongyang's provocations, it must also remain open to new opportunities for improving relations between the two sides. Precisely because trust is at a low point these days, South Korea has a chance to rebuild it. In order to transform the Korean Peninsula from a zone of conflict into a zone of trust, South Korea should adopt a policy of "trustpolitik," establishing mutually binding expectations based on global norms.

根据韩国俗语＂一个巴掌拍不响＂，半岛的和平需要双方的共同努力。（工兵又要跳出来，公主您确定？）半个多世纪以来，朝鲜公然背弃国际准则。然而，韩国在强硬回击朝方挑衅时，还应该对改善双边关系的新机遇保持开放态度。正因为双边互信正处于一个低点，韩国有机会重建之。为了将朝鲜半岛从冲突地区转变成互信地区，韩国应采取＂互信政治＂，建立基于国际准则的、对双边都有约束力的预期。

"Trustpolitik" does not mean unconditional or one-sided trust without verification. Nor does it mean forgetting North Korea's numerous transgressions or rewarding the country with new incentives. Instead, it should be comprised of two coexisting strands: first, North Korea must keep its agreements made with South Korea and the international community to establish a minimum level of trust, and second, there must be assured consequences for actions that breach the peace. To ensure stability, trustpolitik should be applied consistently from issue to issue based on verifiable actions, and steps should not be taken for mere political expediency.

＂互信政治＂并不意味着无条件的或单边盲目轻信，也不意味着忘记朝鲜的种种劣行、予其新的好处。相反地，＂互信政治＂包括并存的两方面：其一、朝鲜必须恪守它与韩国及国际社会达成的协议，以建立最低限度的信任。其二、破坏和平的行为必有后果。为保证稳定，＂互信政治＂必须视可证实的行为而定、持续稳定地运用于各种问题，此外不可仅为了政治便利而行事。

（trustpolitik should be applied consistently from issue to issue based on verifiable actions 公主是不是逻辑混乱？＂互信政治＂又要持续稳定地运用，又要视可证实的行为而定。翻译工兵才疏学浅，表示圣意难测…）

Building trust between competing nations has been accomplished before. The United States and China overcame deep mutual suspicions to establish relations in the 1970s. Egypt and Israel signed a peace accord in 1979 after a gradual process of trust-building between the two sides, and the agreement remains a linchpin of stability for the entire Middle East, even after the change in regime in Egypt earlier this year. In the 1950s, European nations overcame a half century of warfare to create what would later become the European Union.

在相互竞争的国家间建立互信曾有成功的例子。如上世纪七十年代中美克服相互猜忌建交；埃及和以色列在逐步建立互信后签署的1979年和平协定，即使在今年初埃及政权变化之后，该和平协定仍是中东稳定的基石；上世纪五十年代，欧洲克服半个世纪的战乱建立起欧盟的前身。

Although Asia's cultural, historical, and geopolitical environment is unique, the continent can learn from these precedents, particularly Europe's experience. To begin with, Asian states must slow down their accelerating arms buildup, reduce military tensions, and establish a cooperative security regime that would complement existing bilateral agreements and help resolve persistent tensions in the region. In addition, they should strengthen existing multilateral regimes -- such as the ASEAN Regional Forum, a formal dialogue among 27 nations on East Asian security issues; the trilateral summits through which China, Japan, and South Korea coordinate their shared policy concerns; and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. Together, these efforts would help form a more resilient Asian security network and build trust and security on the Korean Peninsula. Such endeavors will undoubtedly take time. But if North and South Korea and other Asian countries can institutionalize confidence-building measures, they will bolster the odds that economic and political cooperation can overcome military and security competition.

虽然亚洲拥有独特的文化、历史、地缘政治环境，该大陆仍可效仿这些先例，尤其是欧洲的经历。首先，亚洲国家应当为不断加速的军备建设降温，缓解军事紧张，建立一个安全协调机制，以履行已有的双边协议并缓和本地区的持续紧张。此外，亚洲各国应加强已有的多边机制，如东盟地区论坛——关注于东亚安全事务的27国对话机构；中日韩三方峰会；亚太经合组织。多管齐下，这些努力有助于建立更坚韧的亚洲安全网络和打造半岛内的互信与安全。这些努力显然费时费力，但如果南北朝鲜以及其它亚洲能够建立互信机制，他们将提高政经合作战胜军备竞赛的机率。

以下就在讲如何对朝鲜胡萝卜加大棒，两手都要抓，两手都要硬。朝鲜乖乖的就有吃的，敢闹，大棒伺候，假以时日，互信政治就建立起来了。公主太啰嗦，略五百字…

BRINGING PYONGYANG INTO THE FOLD


To establish trustpolitik on the Korean Peninsula, South Korea should adapt its past strategies toward North Korea. Previous governments in Seoul have alternatively attempted to engage and deter Pyongyang. The ones that have emphasized accommodation and inter-Korean solidarity have placed inordinate hope in the idea that if the South provided sustained assistance to the North, the North would abandon its bellicose strategy toward the South. But after years of such attempts, no fundamental change has come. Meanwhile, the governments in Seoul that have placed a greater emphasis on pressuring North Korea have not been able to influence its behavior in a meaningful way, either.

A new policy is needed: an alignment policy, which should be buttressed by public consensus and remain constant in the face of political transitions and unexpected domestic or international events. Such a policy would not mean adopting a middle-of-the-road approach; it would involve aligning South Korea's security with its cooperation with the North and inter-Korean dialogue with parallel international efforts. An alignment policy would entail assuming a tough line against North Korea sometimes and a flexible policy open to negotiations other times.

For example, if North Korea launches another military strike against the South, Seoul must respond immediately to ensure that Pyongyang understands the costs of provocation. Conversely, if North Korea takes steps toward genuine reconciliation, such as reaffirming its commitment to existing agreements, then the South should match its efforts. An alignment policy will, over time, reinforce trustpolitik.

To implement such an alignment policy, South Korea must first demonstrate, through a robust and credible deterrent posture, that it will no longer tolerate North Korea's increasingly violent provocations. It must show Pyongyang that the North will pay a heavy price for its military and nuclear threats. This approach is not new, but in order to change the current situation, it must be enforced more vigorously than in the past.

In particular, Seoul has to mobilize the international community to help it dismantle Pyongyang's nuclear program. Under no circumstances can South Korea accept the existence of a nuclear-armed North Korea. North Korea's nuclearization also poses a major threat to the international community because Pyongyang could develop long-range missiles with nuclear warheads or transfer nuclear technologies and materials abroad. Through a combination of credible deterrence, strenuous persuasion, and more effective negotiation strategies, Seoul and the international community must make Pyongyang realize that it can survive and even prosper without nuclear weapons. If North Korea undertakes additional nuclear tests, South Korea must consider all possible responses in consultation with its principal ally, the United States, and other key global partners.

特别地，汉城应该动员国际社会助其销毁平壤的核武项目。韩国绝对不会接受一个拥有核武器的朝鲜。朝鲜的核武化对国际社会也是一大威胁——平壤可研发带核弹头的远程导弹或将核技术与材料向海外转让。通过威慑、劝说以及更有效的谈判策略，汉城与国际社会必须让平壤明白，没有核武器朝鲜同样可以生存甚至变得繁荣。如果朝鲜执意再次进行核试验，韩国将与主要盟友美国及其它国家商讨一切
可能的对策。

Even as Seoul and its allies strengthen their posture against North Korea's militarism and nuclear brinkmanship, they must also be prepared to offer Pyongyang a new beginning. Trust can be built on incremental gains, such as joint projects for enhanced economic cooperation, humanitarian assistance from the South to the North, and new trade and investment opportunities. When I met the North Korean leader Kim Jong Il in Pyongyang in 2002, we discussed a range of issues, including a Eurasian railway project that would reconnect the Trans-Korean Railway, which has been severed since the Korean War, and link it to the Trans-Siberian and Trans-China lines. Reconnecting the Korean railway would be a testament to mutual development and inter-Korean peace. And if that line were then tied to other regional lines, the effort could help develop China's three northeastern provinces and Russia's Far East -- and, in turn, perhaps transform the Korean Peninsula into a conduit for regional trade. Although tensions have delayed further discussions about the railway project in recent years, these could be restarted as a means of building trust on vital security matters.

在韩国与其盟友以强硬姿态应对朝方军事冒险的同时，我们还应做好给予朝鲜一个全新开端的准备。互信可以逐步建立，比如旨在提高经济合作的合资项目、南方向北方提供的人道主义援助、新的贸易和投资机遇等。02年我与金二胖会面时谈到一系列的问题，其中包括亚欧铁路工程：重新连接自朝鲜战争以来就被切断的南北朝鲜铁路+西伯利亚铁路+中国铁路。此举将是半岛内和平与共同发展的见证。如果当年能够实施这一计划，本可以有助于中国东北三省和俄罗斯远东地区的发展，反过来，又可以将朝鲜半岛建成本地区的贸易通道。虽然近年来的局势使该计划搁浅，但重启这一计划可作为建立互信的手段之一。

The rest of the world can help with these efforts. To begin with, strengthening the indispensable alliance between South Korea and the United States should send unequivocal signals to North Korea that only responsible behavior can ensure the regime's survival and a better life for its citizens. The EU is not a member of the six-party nuclear talks, but the model of regional cooperation that Europe represents can contribute to peace building on the Korean Peninsula. Asian countries can devise ways to adopt a cooperative security arrangement based on the model of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the world's largest intergovernmental security organization. The OSCE process of fostering security and economic cooperation could be adapted to Northeast Asia: offering guarantees that North Korea would receive substantial economic and diplomatic benefits if it changed its behavior would reassure its leaders that the regime can survive without nuclear weapons.

Given its role as North Korea's principal economic benefactor and ally, China can play a critical part in prompting Pyongyang to change. Chinese efforts to encourage reforms in North Korea could be spurred by a more cooperative U.S.-Chinese relationship. As that relationship deepens, Pyongyang's outlier status will increasingly undermine Beijing's desire to improve its ties with Washington. Conversely, tensions between China and the United States might only increase North Korea's intransigence, allowing it to play the two countries off each other.

作为朝鲜的主要金主和盟友，中国在推动朝鲜转变上可以扮演至关重要的角色。中美关系的增进可促使中国对朝鲜实施干预；中美越亲密，朝鲜就越显得碍手碍脚。反之中美闹僵只会让朝鲜变得更加顽固，使它有机会离间中美两国。

Because South Korea maintains both a critical alliance with the United States and a strategic partnership with China, confidence building on the Korean Peninsula would also improve trust between Beijing and Washington, creating a virtuous cycle in which a more cooperative U.S.-Chinese relationship would bolster more positive inter-Korean relations and vice versa. Although North Korea continues to depend heavily on China's economic and diplomatic protection, China's growing global stature and interest in improving its ties with the United States may limit its support for North Korea if Pyongyang continues to threaten the region's stability. North Korea may finally join the family of nations if it realizes that assistance from China cannot last forever.

因为韩国与美国保持着至关紧要的同盟关系，又与中国有着战略性的伙伴关系，在朝鲜半岛建立互信有助于推动中美两国的互信，中美互信又可以反过来推动南北关系，从而形成一个良性循环。虽然朝鲜继续依仗中国的经济和外交保护，但随着中国国际地位的提升、对美关系重要性的增加，在朝鲜继续危及地区稳定的情况下，中国会减少对朝鲜的支持。朝鲜在意识到来自中国的帮助不会天长地久时，有可能最终加入国际大家庭。

往下越发啰嗦，俺罢手了

MAKING THE RIGHT CHOICE

The dual realities of the Korean Peninsula -- prosperity and military tension -- have coexisted for the past 60 years. In the midst of war and the bleakest of circumstances, South Korea received critical assistance from the United States and the international community that propelled its economic development and its democratization. Its progress was so fast, in fact, that in 2009 it became the first underdeveloped, aid-recipient country to become a member of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's Development Assistance Committee. South Korea adheres to denuclearization, participates in countering the proliferation of other weapons of mass destruction, and increasingly contributes to global initiatives, such as reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan and antipiracy naval operations around the Horn of Africa.

Enduring trust between the international community and South Korea was instrumental to Seoul's development. To achieve the same outcome with North Korea, South Korea should adopt a principle of trustpolitik and an alignment policy. Once the vestiges of the harsh confrontation between Seoul and Pyongyang are overcome, the Korean Peninsula could emerge as a hub for cooperation and economic prosperity. Should the North relinquish its nuclear weapons and behave peacefully, it could work with the South to enhance economic cooperation between the two countries through special economic zones and the free movement of goods and people, gain development assistance from institutions such as the World Bank, and attract foreign investment. Such developments would contribute significantly to the establishment of a more enduring peace on the Korean Peninsula, and they might expedite the peninsula's unification as well as encourage the gradual institutionalization of economic and security cooperation in Northeast Asia. A democratic, unified Korea would be an economic and security asset to the region.

Many assert that in the coming years the Korean Peninsula will face growing uncertainty. But Koreans have shown that they can turn challenges into historic opportunities. In the 1960s and 1970s, South Korea chose to develop itself through rapid industrialization. In the 1990s, it expanded and deepened ties with countries and regions with which it had shared little during the Cold War, such as China, eastern Europe, and Russia. Over the last decade, it has emerged as one of Asia's most vibrant democracies. Today, South Korea stands ready to work with the United States and other members of the international community to ensure that North Korea follows the same path.

工兵对这位长公主、现任韩国议员的印象是：天马行空、言之无物。大家怎么看？