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The future of China's fifth-generation stealth fighter
中国第五代隐形战机的未来
21:06 29/12/2010© RIA Novosti. Maria Chapligina
RIA Novosti military commentator Ilya Kramnik
Both experts and amateurs who have studied the blurred photos of an unfamiliar fighter jet on a runway in China have concluded that Beijing has started testing its fifth-generation stealth fighter.
The J-20 prototype is expected to rival the U.S. F-22 and the Russian T-50 fighters. But is China ready to start mass-producing the aircraft? How good is the prototype?
专家和爱好者研究了互联网上的照片后，认为北京正在测试第五代隐形战机j20的原型，j20是和f22、t50同等级的战机。
但中国已经准备好大量生产了吗？这架原型机怎么样？
Experts call it a combination of the Russian and U.S. fifth-generation fighters, but that greatly simplifies matters. In the last 20 years, China has been working closely with Russia to develop a modern fighter jet. But the J-20 is not simply a copy of a Russian design. Rather China has tried to build a completely new aircraft based on the technology and knowledge it has gained during its years of cooperation with Russia.
The future of the new Chinese fighter will depend on several factors.
专家们认为这是俄美战机的结合品，但这样说太简单化了。在过去20年，中国工程帅一直围绕着俄罗斯战机进行工作。但j20绝不是俄国的设计。中国基于多年与俄罗斯合作得到的技术和知识［这句肯定是说给三哥听的］，正在建造自己的复杂飞机。
这架新飞机的未来取决于以下几个因素。
Engine
It is not clear what kind of engine the plane will have. Some say it will use the prospective Chinese-made WS-15 engine with a maximum thrust exceeding 18,000 kg, but the engine is still in the pipeline.
China has been unable to reproduce Russia's highly efficient high-temperature turbofan AL-31F engine, designed in the early 1980s and currently mounted on the Su-27 fighter and its modifications. The engines for Sukhoi planes manufactured in China are made in Russia and then assembled and adjusted in China.
The AL-31F engine is also mounted on China's J-10 fighter planes. The engine's Chinese analogue, the WS-10, is less efficient than the Russian prototype.
发动机
还不清楚它用了什么发动机，一些人说用了中国产的ws15，它最大的加力能到18000公斤，但这个发动机还在研制当中。
中国还不能复制俄罗斯的高效高温涡扇发动机al31f，al31f设计于1980年代早期，现在仍用在su27和中国的改进型号上，al31f由俄罗斯制造。
al31f也是j10的发动机，中国的仿制物ws10的效率仍然低于al31f。
Materials
A fifth-generation stealth fighter must be able to evade radar, and so it must be made from modern composite materials. However, China does not produce such materials in commercial amounts, and experts doubt that it can develop and produce them for its Air Force.
材料
五代隐形战机必须对雷达隐身，这需要先进的复合材料。但是，中国不能大量生产这种材料，专家们怀疑中国能否为空军研发、提供这些材料。
Electronics
Electronic equipment, primarily radar, in China stands at approximately the same level as its engines. Chinese designs fall short of the capabilities of their Russian, European and American counterparts. Although China has been gradually narrowing the gap, it still has to import modern electronic equipment for its aircraft.
The best aircraft radar systems are currently made for Russia's Su-30MKK fighters, and China will most likely copy this design. It is not clear how much it will differ in terms of specifications from next-generation Russian or American radar systems.
航电
航电设备，主要是雷达，中国雷达的地位和中国发动机差不多，中国的仍然不如俄罗斯、欧洲、美国的。虽然中国已逐渐缩小差距，但仍需为国产飞机进口先进航电设备。
现在最好的战机雷达是俄罗斯为 Su-30MKK研制的，中国很可能要复制这个设计。［又是说给三哥听的］
现在还不知道俄罗斯和美国的下代战机的雷达有多少差距。
Weapons
The guided weapons used in the Chinese Air Force were mostly copied from U.S., Israeli and Russian prototypes made in the 1960s through 1980s. China will have to spend a great deal of time and effort to develop its own weapons, even if it borrows elements of prototypes bought from other countries. But foreign producers are becoming increasingly wary of sharing their next-generation technology with China.
武器
中国空军的制导武器几乎都复制于美国、以色列和俄罗斯在60年代至80年代的产品，中国将需要用很长时间和努力去开发他们自己的武器，即使这样也必须借鉴外国产品才能研发。但外国生产商正越来越担心分享他们的下一代技术给中国。
Conclusions
Since the 1970s, China has consistently lagged 15 to 20 years behind the world leaders in aircraft manufacturing. This was true of their third- and fourth-generation aircraft, and this appears to be the case with its fifth-generation fighter plane.
The J-20 fighter was produced nearly 20 year after the U.S. YF-22 (the prototype of the mass-produced F-22A), 17 years after the Russian MiG-1.44 (MiG-MFI, or Multifunctional Frontline Fighter), and 14 after Russia's S.37 (Su-47).
If the J-20 is accepted as the prototype for a new series, China will be able to produce a fifth-generation fighter plane within 10 years. If not, it will begin batch production no sooner than 15 or 20 years from now.
No one knows for sure what will happen, but it's certainly not too early to make predictions about the future of the new plane.
Given its traditional policy of aircraft manufacturing, China will most likely create a functional analogue of foreign-made 5G planes that will cost 50% to 80% less than Russian and U.S. models. China will most likely sell the plane in Central Asia, the Middle East, Latin America and Southeast Asia, as well as to the richest African countries.
The export models of the J-20 and the planes of that series made for the Chinese Air Force will have foreign, including Russian, equipment and weapons. Moreover, in the next 20 to 30 years China will have to continue to import modern aircraft technology. Despite the strides made by China's aircraft designers in the last 20 years, China has only slightly narrowed the technological gap dividing it from the global leaders.
The views expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.The future of China's fifth-generation stealth fighter
中国第五代隐形战机的未来
21:06 29/12/2010© RIA Novosti. Maria Chapligina
RIA Novosti military commentator Ilya Kramnik
Both experts and amateurs who have studied the blurred photos of an unfamiliar fighter jet on a runway in China have concluded that Beijing has started testing its fifth-generation stealth fighter.
The J-20 prototype is expected to rival the U.S. F-22 and the Russian T-50 fighters. But is China ready to start mass-producing the aircraft? How good is the prototype?
专家和爱好者研究了互联网上的照片后，认为北京正在测试第五代隐形战机j20的原型，j20是和f22、t50同等级的战机。
但中国已经准备好大量生产了吗？这架原型机怎么样？
Experts call it a combination of the Russian and U.S. fifth-generation fighters, but that greatly simplifies matters. In the last 20 years, China has been working closely with Russia to develop a modern fighter jet. But the J-20 is not simply a copy of a Russian design. Rather China has tried to build a completely new aircraft based on the technology and knowledge it has gained during its years of cooperation with Russia.
The future of the new Chinese fighter will depend on several factors.
专家们认为这是俄美战机的结合品，但这样说太简单化了。在过去20年，中国工程帅一直围绕着俄罗斯战机进行工作。但j20绝不是俄国的设计。中国基于多年与俄罗斯合作得到的技术和知识［这句肯定是说给三哥听的］，正在建造自己的复杂飞机。
这架新飞机的未来取决于以下几个因素。
Engine
It is not clear what kind of engine the plane will have. Some say it will use the prospective Chinese-made WS-15 engine with a maximum thrust exceeding 18,000 kg, but the engine is still in the pipeline.
China has been unable to reproduce Russia's highly efficient high-temperature turbofan AL-31F engine, designed in the early 1980s and currently mounted on the Su-27 fighter and its modifications. The engines for Sukhoi planes manufactured in China are made in Russia and then assembled and adjusted in China.
The AL-31F engine is also mounted on China's J-10 fighter planes. The engine's Chinese analogue, the WS-10, is less efficient than the Russian prototype.
发动机
还不清楚它用了什么发动机，一些人说用了中国产的ws15，它最大的加力能到18000公斤，但这个发动机还在研制当中。
中国还不能复制俄罗斯的高效高温涡扇发动机al31f，al31f设计于1980年代早期，现在仍用在su27和中国的改进型号上，al31f由俄罗斯制造。
al31f也是j10的发动机，中国的仿制物ws10的效率仍然低于al31f。
Materials
A fifth-generation stealth fighter must be able to evade radar, and so it must be made from modern composite materials. However, China does not produce such materials in commercial amounts, and experts doubt that it can develop and produce them for its Air Force.
材料
五代隐形战机必须对雷达隐身，这需要先进的复合材料。但是，中国不能大量生产这种材料，专家们怀疑中国能否为空军研发、提供这些材料。
Electronics
Electronic equipment, primarily radar, in China stands at approximately the same level as its engines. Chinese designs fall short of the capabilities of their Russian, European and American counterparts. Although China has been gradually narrowing the gap, it still has to import modern electronic equipment for its aircraft.
The best aircraft radar systems are currently made for Russia's Su-30MKK fighters, and China will most likely copy this design. It is not clear how much it will differ in terms of specifications from next-generation Russian or American radar systems.
航电
航电设备，主要是雷达，中国雷达的地位和中国发动机差不多，中国的仍然不如俄罗斯、欧洲、美国的。虽然中国已逐渐缩小差距，但仍需为国产飞机进口先进航电设备。
现在最好的战机雷达是俄罗斯为 Su-30MKK研制的，中国很可能要复制这个设计。［又是说给三哥听的］
现在还不知道俄罗斯和美国的下代战机的雷达有多少差距。
Weapons
The guided weapons used in the Chinese Air Force were mostly copied from U.S., Israeli and Russian prototypes made in the 1960s through 1980s. China will have to spend a great deal of time and effort to develop its own weapons, even if it borrows elements of prototypes bought from other countries. But foreign producers are becoming increasingly wary of sharing their next-generation technology with China.
武器
中国空军的制导武器几乎都复制于美国、以色列和俄罗斯在60年代至80年代的产品，中国将需要用很长时间和努力去开发他们自己的武器，即使这样也必须借鉴外国产品才能研发。但外国生产商正越来越担心分享他们的下一代技术给中国。
Conclusions
Since the 1970s, China has consistently lagged 15 to 20 years behind the world leaders in aircraft manufacturing. This was true of their third- and fourth-generation aircraft, and this appears to be the case with its fifth-generation fighter plane.
The J-20 fighter was produced nearly 20 year after the U.S. YF-22 (the prototype of the mass-produced F-22A), 17 years after the Russian MiG-1.44 (MiG-MFI, or Multifunctional Frontline Fighter), and 14 after Russia's S.37 (Su-47).
If the J-20 is accepted as the prototype for a new series, China will be able to produce a fifth-generation fighter plane within 10 years. If not, it will begin batch production no sooner than 15 or 20 years from now.
No one knows for sure what will happen, but it's certainly not too early to make predictions about the future of the new plane.
Given its traditional policy of aircraft manufacturing, China will most likely create a functional analogue of foreign-made 5G planes that will cost 50% to 80% less than Russian and U.S. models. China will most likely sell the plane in Central Asia, the Middle East, Latin America and Southeast Asia, as well as to the richest African countries.
The export models of the J-20 and the planes of that series made for the Chinese Air Force will have foreign, including Russian, equipment and weapons. Moreover, in the next 20 to 30 years China will have to continue to import modern aircraft technology. Despite the strides made by China's aircraft designers in the last 20 years, China has only slightly narrowed the technological gap dividing it from the global leaders.
The views expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
中国第五代隐形战机的未来
21:06 29/12/2010© RIA Novosti. Maria Chapligina
RIA Novosti military commentator Ilya Kramnik
Both experts and amateurs who have studied the blurred photos of an unfamiliar fighter jet on a runway in China have concluded that Beijing has started testing its fifth-generation stealth fighter.
The J-20 prototype is expected to rival the U.S. F-22 and the Russian T-50 fighters. But is China ready to start mass-producing the aircraft? How good is the prototype?
专家和爱好者研究了互联网上的照片后，认为北京正在测试第五代隐形战机j20的原型，j20是和f22、t50同等级的战机。
但中国已经准备好大量生产了吗？这架原型机怎么样？
Experts call it a combination of the Russian and U.S. fifth-generation fighters, but that greatly simplifies matters. In the last 20 years, China has been working closely with Russia to develop a modern fighter jet. But the J-20 is not simply a copy of a Russian design. Rather China has tried to build a completely new aircraft based on the technology and knowledge it has gained during its years of cooperation with Russia.
The future of the new Chinese fighter will depend on several factors.
专家们认为这是俄美战机的结合品，但这样说太简单化了。在过去20年，中国工程帅一直围绕着俄罗斯战机进行工作。但j20绝不是俄国的设计。中国基于多年与俄罗斯合作得到的技术和知识［这句肯定是说给三哥听的］，正在建造自己的复杂飞机。
这架新飞机的未来取决于以下几个因素。
Engine
It is not clear what kind of engine the plane will have. Some say it will use the prospective Chinese-made WS-15 engine with a maximum thrust exceeding 18,000 kg, but the engine is still in the pipeline.
China has been unable to reproduce Russia's highly efficient high-temperature turbofan AL-31F engine, designed in the early 1980s and currently mounted on the Su-27 fighter and its modifications. The engines for Sukhoi planes manufactured in China are made in Russia and then assembled and adjusted in China.
The AL-31F engine is also mounted on China's J-10 fighter planes. The engine's Chinese analogue, the WS-10, is less efficient than the Russian prototype.
发动机
还不清楚它用了什么发动机，一些人说用了中国产的ws15，它最大的加力能到18000公斤，但这个发动机还在研制当中。
中国还不能复制俄罗斯的高效高温涡扇发动机al31f，al31f设计于1980年代早期，现在仍用在su27和中国的改进型号上，al31f由俄罗斯制造。
al31f也是j10的发动机，中国的仿制物ws10的效率仍然低于al31f。
Materials
A fifth-generation stealth fighter must be able to evade radar, and so it must be made from modern composite materials. However, China does not produce such materials in commercial amounts, and experts doubt that it can develop and produce them for its Air Force.
材料
五代隐形战机必须对雷达隐身，这需要先进的复合材料。但是，中国不能大量生产这种材料，专家们怀疑中国能否为空军研发、提供这些材料。
Electronics
Electronic equipment, primarily radar, in China stands at approximately the same level as its engines. Chinese designs fall short of the capabilities of their Russian, European and American counterparts. Although China has been gradually narrowing the gap, it still has to import modern electronic equipment for its aircraft.
The best aircraft radar systems are currently made for Russia's Su-30MKK fighters, and China will most likely copy this design. It is not clear how much it will differ in terms of specifications from next-generation Russian or American radar systems.
航电
航电设备，主要是雷达，中国雷达的地位和中国发动机差不多，中国的仍然不如俄罗斯、欧洲、美国的。虽然中国已逐渐缩小差距，但仍需为国产飞机进口先进航电设备。
现在最好的战机雷达是俄罗斯为 Su-30MKK研制的，中国很可能要复制这个设计。［又是说给三哥听的］
现在还不知道俄罗斯和美国的下代战机的雷达有多少差距。
Weapons
The guided weapons used in the Chinese Air Force were mostly copied from U.S., Israeli and Russian prototypes made in the 1960s through 1980s. China will have to spend a great deal of time and effort to develop its own weapons, even if it borrows elements of prototypes bought from other countries. But foreign producers are becoming increasingly wary of sharing their next-generation technology with China.
武器
中国空军的制导武器几乎都复制于美国、以色列和俄罗斯在60年代至80年代的产品，中国将需要用很长时间和努力去开发他们自己的武器，即使这样也必须借鉴外国产品才能研发。但外国生产商正越来越担心分享他们的下一代技术给中国。
Conclusions
Since the 1970s, China has consistently lagged 15 to 20 years behind the world leaders in aircraft manufacturing. This was true of their third- and fourth-generation aircraft, and this appears to be the case with its fifth-generation fighter plane.
The J-20 fighter was produced nearly 20 year after the U.S. YF-22 (the prototype of the mass-produced F-22A), 17 years after the Russian MiG-1.44 (MiG-MFI, or Multifunctional Frontline Fighter), and 14 after Russia's S.37 (Su-47).
If the J-20 is accepted as the prototype for a new series, China will be able to produce a fifth-generation fighter plane within 10 years. If not, it will begin batch production no sooner than 15 or 20 years from now.
No one knows for sure what will happen, but it's certainly not too early to make predictions about the future of the new plane.
Given its traditional policy of aircraft manufacturing, China will most likely create a functional analogue of foreign-made 5G planes that will cost 50% to 80% less than Russian and U.S. models. China will most likely sell the plane in Central Asia, the Middle East, Latin America and Southeast Asia, as well as to the richest African countries.
The export models of the J-20 and the planes of that series made for the Chinese Air Force will have foreign, including Russian, equipment and weapons. Moreover, in the next 20 to 30 years China will have to continue to import modern aircraft technology. Despite the strides made by China's aircraft designers in the last 20 years, China has only slightly narrowed the technological gap dividing it from the global leaders.
The views expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.The future of China's fifth-generation stealth fighter
中国第五代隐形战机的未来
21:06 29/12/2010© RIA Novosti. Maria Chapligina
RIA Novosti military commentator Ilya Kramnik
Both experts and amateurs who have studied the blurred photos of an unfamiliar fighter jet on a runway in China have concluded that Beijing has started testing its fifth-generation stealth fighter.
The J-20 prototype is expected to rival the U.S. F-22 and the Russian T-50 fighters. But is China ready to start mass-producing the aircraft? How good is the prototype?
专家和爱好者研究了互联网上的照片后，认为北京正在测试第五代隐形战机j20的原型，j20是和f22、t50同等级的战机。
但中国已经准备好大量生产了吗？这架原型机怎么样？
Experts call it a combination of the Russian and U.S. fifth-generation fighters, but that greatly simplifies matters. In the last 20 years, China has been working closely with Russia to develop a modern fighter jet. But the J-20 is not simply a copy of a Russian design. Rather China has tried to build a completely new aircraft based on the technology and knowledge it has gained during its years of cooperation with Russia.
The future of the new Chinese fighter will depend on several factors.
专家们认为这是俄美战机的结合品，但这样说太简单化了。在过去20年，中国工程帅一直围绕着俄罗斯战机进行工作。但j20绝不是俄国的设计。中国基于多年与俄罗斯合作得到的技术和知识［这句肯定是说给三哥听的］，正在建造自己的复杂飞机。
这架新飞机的未来取决于以下几个因素。
Engine
It is not clear what kind of engine the plane will have. Some say it will use the prospective Chinese-made WS-15 engine with a maximum thrust exceeding 18,000 kg, but the engine is still in the pipeline.
China has been unable to reproduce Russia's highly efficient high-temperature turbofan AL-31F engine, designed in the early 1980s and currently mounted on the Su-27 fighter and its modifications. The engines for Sukhoi planes manufactured in China are made in Russia and then assembled and adjusted in China.
The AL-31F engine is also mounted on China's J-10 fighter planes. The engine's Chinese analogue, the WS-10, is less efficient than the Russian prototype.
发动机
还不清楚它用了什么发动机，一些人说用了中国产的ws15，它最大的加力能到18000公斤，但这个发动机还在研制当中。
中国还不能复制俄罗斯的高效高温涡扇发动机al31f，al31f设计于1980年代早期，现在仍用在su27和中国的改进型号上，al31f由俄罗斯制造。
al31f也是j10的发动机，中国的仿制物ws10的效率仍然低于al31f。
Materials
A fifth-generation stealth fighter must be able to evade radar, and so it must be made from modern composite materials. However, China does not produce such materials in commercial amounts, and experts doubt that it can develop and produce them for its Air Force.
材料
五代隐形战机必须对雷达隐身，这需要先进的复合材料。但是，中国不能大量生产这种材料，专家们怀疑中国能否为空军研发、提供这些材料。
Electronics
Electronic equipment, primarily radar, in China stands at approximately the same level as its engines. Chinese designs fall short of the capabilities of their Russian, European and American counterparts. Although China has been gradually narrowing the gap, it still has to import modern electronic equipment for its aircraft.
The best aircraft radar systems are currently made for Russia's Su-30MKK fighters, and China will most likely copy this design. It is not clear how much it will differ in terms of specifications from next-generation Russian or American radar systems.
航电
航电设备，主要是雷达，中国雷达的地位和中国发动机差不多，中国的仍然不如俄罗斯、欧洲、美国的。虽然中国已逐渐缩小差距，但仍需为国产飞机进口先进航电设备。
现在最好的战机雷达是俄罗斯为 Su-30MKK研制的，中国很可能要复制这个设计。［又是说给三哥听的］
现在还不知道俄罗斯和美国的下代战机的雷达有多少差距。
Weapons
The guided weapons used in the Chinese Air Force were mostly copied from U.S., Israeli and Russian prototypes made in the 1960s through 1980s. China will have to spend a great deal of time and effort to develop its own weapons, even if it borrows elements of prototypes bought from other countries. But foreign producers are becoming increasingly wary of sharing their next-generation technology with China.
武器
中国空军的制导武器几乎都复制于美国、以色列和俄罗斯在60年代至80年代的产品，中国将需要用很长时间和努力去开发他们自己的武器，即使这样也必须借鉴外国产品才能研发。但外国生产商正越来越担心分享他们的下一代技术给中国。
Conclusions
Since the 1970s, China has consistently lagged 15 to 20 years behind the world leaders in aircraft manufacturing. This was true of their third- and fourth-generation aircraft, and this appears to be the case with its fifth-generation fighter plane.
The J-20 fighter was produced nearly 20 year after the U.S. YF-22 (the prototype of the mass-produced F-22A), 17 years after the Russian MiG-1.44 (MiG-MFI, or Multifunctional Frontline Fighter), and 14 after Russia's S.37 (Su-47).
If the J-20 is accepted as the prototype for a new series, China will be able to produce a fifth-generation fighter plane within 10 years. If not, it will begin batch production no sooner than 15 or 20 years from now.
No one knows for sure what will happen, but it's certainly not too early to make predictions about the future of the new plane.
Given its traditional policy of aircraft manufacturing, China will most likely create a functional analogue of foreign-made 5G planes that will cost 50% to 80% less than Russian and U.S. models. China will most likely sell the plane in Central Asia, the Middle East, Latin America and Southeast Asia, as well as to the richest African countries.
The export models of the J-20 and the planes of that series made for the Chinese Air Force will have foreign, including Russian, equipment and weapons. Moreover, in the next 20 to 30 years China will have to continue to import modern aircraft technology. Despite the strides made by China's aircraft designers in the last 20 years, China has only slightly narrowed the technological gap dividing it from the global leaders.
The views expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.