超级军网印度上一季度GDP增长5.3%
来源：百度文库 编辑：超级军网 时间：2024/04/27 14:03:15
5.3%: India Growth Story crawls to its slowest in 6 years
三弟要挺住啊，08-09财年前三季度GDP增长已放慢至6.9%，卢比对美元已经跌破51：1了:L
http://www.indianexpress.com/new ... -in-6-years/429155/
India’s expectations that the economy will grow a healthy 7.1 per cent in the current fiscal suddenly seem unrealistic with the gross domestic product for the October-December 2008 or the third quarter slowing down to a six-year low of 5.3 per cent. The economy grew 8.9 per cent in the corresponding quarter last fiscal.
The lower-than-expected growth rate was largely because of a sharp slide in agricultural output and also a contraction in manufacturing. The farm sector, which has 19 per cent weight in the country’s GDP composition, dipped 2.2 per cent in the third quarter, pulling down the overall GDP growth estimate to 5.3 per cent. In the first two quarters, India grew 7.9 per cent and 7.6 per cent respectively.
The Prime Minister’s economic advisory council had estimated third-quarter growth to be around 6.5 per cent and the Central Statistical Organisation had, in its advance estimate, pegged the growth rate for the full fiscal at 7.1 per cent. At present, the overall growth in the first nine months of 2008-09 is falling short of the 7-per cent mark at 6.9 per cent.
For the economy to clock a 7 per cent growth rate this fiscal, it would have to grow by at least 7.3 per cent in the ongoing quarter (January-March), which is highly unlikely. “A weaker fourth quarter performance would take the full-year GDP growth rate down to the range of 6-6.5 per cent,” Subir Gokarn, chief economist, Standard and Poor’s Asia Pacific told The Indian Express.
There is, however, a silver lining. The impact of Sixth Pay Commission, the two stimulus packages in December 2008 and January 2009, are yet to play out. Besides, the low Inflation rate — it’s at a 15-month low of 3.36 per cent — will give the Reserve Bank of India more leeway to pursue aggressive monetary easing in the coming days.
The Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index dropped over 2 per cent during the day on the GDP data but recovered partially to close just 63 points lower at 8,892 points. The rupee fell sharply, closing at 51.10/12 to a dollar as importer demand for the dollar surged following the poor growth figures.
The government, however, assured that the figures are not much of a deviation from expectations. “There is still a quarter to go. Even with 5.3 per cent, it still comes around seven per cent, maybe a shade below that,” minister of state for finance PK Bansal said. Economic affairs secretary Ashok Chawla, too, expressed confidence and said, “It (growth) will add up to close to 7 per cent for the year as a whole. We are not very disappointed.”
Manufacturing, on a consistent downturn, fell 0.2 per cent between October and December 2008, while agriculture, which grew at a massive 6.9 per cent in the same quarter last year, fell 2.2 per cent. While the slump in agriculture may be seen as the base effect of last year’s strong growth, chief statistician of India Pronab Sen disagrees.
He said, “A base effect seems improbable. The final estimate for last year was sharply higher than the second estimate. We just have the second estimate as of now for this year. So we can’t say what went wrong,” he added. Other sectors, however, performed far better compared to agriculture and manufacturing, with two sectors, namely ‘mining and quarrying’ and ‘community, social and personal services’ faring better than last year at 5.3 per cent and 17.3 per cent, respectively.5.3%: India Growth Story crawls to its slowest in 6 years
三弟要挺住啊，08-09财年前三季度GDP增长已放慢至6.9%，卢比对美元已经跌破51：1了:L
http://www.indianexpress.com/new ... -in-6-years/429155/
India’s expectations that the economy will grow a healthy 7.1 per cent in the current fiscal suddenly seem unrealistic with the gross domestic product for the October-December 2008 or the third quarter slowing down to a six-year low of 5.3 per cent. The economy grew 8.9 per cent in the corresponding quarter last fiscal.
The lower-than-expected growth rate was largely because of a sharp slide in agricultural output and also a contraction in manufacturing. The farm sector, which has 19 per cent weight in the country’s GDP composition, dipped 2.2 per cent in the third quarter, pulling down the overall GDP growth estimate to 5.3 per cent. In the first two quarters, India grew 7.9 per cent and 7.6 per cent respectively.
The Prime Minister’s economic advisory council had estimated third-quarter growth to be around 6.5 per cent and the Central Statistical Organisation had, in its advance estimate, pegged the growth rate for the full fiscal at 7.1 per cent. At present, the overall growth in the first nine months of 2008-09 is falling short of the 7-per cent mark at 6.9 per cent.
For the economy to clock a 7 per cent growth rate this fiscal, it would have to grow by at least 7.3 per cent in the ongoing quarter (January-March), which is highly unlikely. “A weaker fourth quarter performance would take the full-year GDP growth rate down to the range of 6-6.5 per cent,” Subir Gokarn, chief economist, Standard and Poor’s Asia Pacific told The Indian Express.
There is, however, a silver lining. The impact of Sixth Pay Commission, the two stimulus packages in December 2008 and January 2009, are yet to play out. Besides, the low Inflation rate — it’s at a 15-month low of 3.36 per cent — will give the Reserve Bank of India more leeway to pursue aggressive monetary easing in the coming days.
The Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index dropped over 2 per cent during the day on the GDP data but recovered partially to close just 63 points lower at 8,892 points. The rupee fell sharply, closing at 51.10/12 to a dollar as importer demand for the dollar surged following the poor growth figures.
The government, however, assured that the figures are not much of a deviation from expectations. “There is still a quarter to go. Even with 5.3 per cent, it still comes around seven per cent, maybe a shade below that,” minister of state for finance PK Bansal said. Economic affairs secretary Ashok Chawla, too, expressed confidence and said, “It (growth) will add up to close to 7 per cent for the year as a whole. We are not very disappointed.”
Manufacturing, on a consistent downturn, fell 0.2 per cent between October and December 2008, while agriculture, which grew at a massive 6.9 per cent in the same quarter last year, fell 2.2 per cent. While the slump in agriculture may be seen as the base effect of last year’s strong growth, chief statistician of India Pronab Sen disagrees.
He said, “A base effect seems improbable. The final estimate for last year was sharply higher than the second estimate. We just have the second estimate as of now for this year. So we can’t say what went wrong,” he added. Other sectors, however, performed far better compared to agriculture and manufacturing, with two sectors, namely ‘mining and quarrying’ and ‘community, social and personal services’ faring better than last year at 5.3 per cent and 17.3 per cent, respectively.
三弟要挺住啊，08-09财年前三季度GDP增长已放慢至6.9%，卢比对美元已经跌破51：1了:L
http://www.indianexpress.com/new ... -in-6-years/429155/
India’s expectations that the economy will grow a healthy 7.1 per cent in the current fiscal suddenly seem unrealistic with the gross domestic product for the October-December 2008 or the third quarter slowing down to a six-year low of 5.3 per cent. The economy grew 8.9 per cent in the corresponding quarter last fiscal.
The lower-than-expected growth rate was largely because of a sharp slide in agricultural output and also a contraction in manufacturing. The farm sector, which has 19 per cent weight in the country’s GDP composition, dipped 2.2 per cent in the third quarter, pulling down the overall GDP growth estimate to 5.3 per cent. In the first two quarters, India grew 7.9 per cent and 7.6 per cent respectively.
The Prime Minister’s economic advisory council had estimated third-quarter growth to be around 6.5 per cent and the Central Statistical Organisation had, in its advance estimate, pegged the growth rate for the full fiscal at 7.1 per cent. At present, the overall growth in the first nine months of 2008-09 is falling short of the 7-per cent mark at 6.9 per cent.
For the economy to clock a 7 per cent growth rate this fiscal, it would have to grow by at least 7.3 per cent in the ongoing quarter (January-March), which is highly unlikely. “A weaker fourth quarter performance would take the full-year GDP growth rate down to the range of 6-6.5 per cent,” Subir Gokarn, chief economist, Standard and Poor’s Asia Pacific told The Indian Express.
There is, however, a silver lining. The impact of Sixth Pay Commission, the two stimulus packages in December 2008 and January 2009, are yet to play out. Besides, the low Inflation rate — it’s at a 15-month low of 3.36 per cent — will give the Reserve Bank of India more leeway to pursue aggressive monetary easing in the coming days.
The Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index dropped over 2 per cent during the day on the GDP data but recovered partially to close just 63 points lower at 8,892 points. The rupee fell sharply, closing at 51.10/12 to a dollar as importer demand for the dollar surged following the poor growth figures.
The government, however, assured that the figures are not much of a deviation from expectations. “There is still a quarter to go. Even with 5.3 per cent, it still comes around seven per cent, maybe a shade below that,” minister of state for finance PK Bansal said. Economic affairs secretary Ashok Chawla, too, expressed confidence and said, “It (growth) will add up to close to 7 per cent for the year as a whole. We are not very disappointed.”
Manufacturing, on a consistent downturn, fell 0.2 per cent between October and December 2008, while agriculture, which grew at a massive 6.9 per cent in the same quarter last year, fell 2.2 per cent. While the slump in agriculture may be seen as the base effect of last year’s strong growth, chief statistician of India Pronab Sen disagrees.
He said, “A base effect seems improbable. The final estimate for last year was sharply higher than the second estimate. We just have the second estimate as of now for this year. So we can’t say what went wrong,” he added. Other sectors, however, performed far better compared to agriculture and manufacturing, with two sectors, namely ‘mining and quarrying’ and ‘community, social and personal services’ faring better than last year at 5.3 per cent and 17.3 per cent, respectively.5.3%: India Growth Story crawls to its slowest in 6 years
三弟要挺住啊，08-09财年前三季度GDP增长已放慢至6.9%，卢比对美元已经跌破51：1了:L
http://www.indianexpress.com/new ... -in-6-years/429155/
India’s expectations that the economy will grow a healthy 7.1 per cent in the current fiscal suddenly seem unrealistic with the gross domestic product for the October-December 2008 or the third quarter slowing down to a six-year low of 5.3 per cent. The economy grew 8.9 per cent in the corresponding quarter last fiscal.
The lower-than-expected growth rate was largely because of a sharp slide in agricultural output and also a contraction in manufacturing. The farm sector, which has 19 per cent weight in the country’s GDP composition, dipped 2.2 per cent in the third quarter, pulling down the overall GDP growth estimate to 5.3 per cent. In the first two quarters, India grew 7.9 per cent and 7.6 per cent respectively.
The Prime Minister’s economic advisory council had estimated third-quarter growth to be around 6.5 per cent and the Central Statistical Organisation had, in its advance estimate, pegged the growth rate for the full fiscal at 7.1 per cent. At present, the overall growth in the first nine months of 2008-09 is falling short of the 7-per cent mark at 6.9 per cent.
For the economy to clock a 7 per cent growth rate this fiscal, it would have to grow by at least 7.3 per cent in the ongoing quarter (January-March), which is highly unlikely. “A weaker fourth quarter performance would take the full-year GDP growth rate down to the range of 6-6.5 per cent,” Subir Gokarn, chief economist, Standard and Poor’s Asia Pacific told The Indian Express.
There is, however, a silver lining. The impact of Sixth Pay Commission, the two stimulus packages in December 2008 and January 2009, are yet to play out. Besides, the low Inflation rate — it’s at a 15-month low of 3.36 per cent — will give the Reserve Bank of India more leeway to pursue aggressive monetary easing in the coming days.
The Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index dropped over 2 per cent during the day on the GDP data but recovered partially to close just 63 points lower at 8,892 points. The rupee fell sharply, closing at 51.10/12 to a dollar as importer demand for the dollar surged following the poor growth figures.
The government, however, assured that the figures are not much of a deviation from expectations. “There is still a quarter to go. Even with 5.3 per cent, it still comes around seven per cent, maybe a shade below that,” minister of state for finance PK Bansal said. Economic affairs secretary Ashok Chawla, too, expressed confidence and said, “It (growth) will add up to close to 7 per cent for the year as a whole. We are not very disappointed.”
Manufacturing, on a consistent downturn, fell 0.2 per cent between October and December 2008, while agriculture, which grew at a massive 6.9 per cent in the same quarter last year, fell 2.2 per cent. While the slump in agriculture may be seen as the base effect of last year’s strong growth, chief statistician of India Pronab Sen disagrees.
He said, “A base effect seems improbable. The final estimate for last year was sharply higher than the second estimate. We just have the second estimate as of now for this year. So we can’t say what went wrong,” he added. Other sectors, however, performed far better compared to agriculture and manufacturing, with two sectors, namely ‘mining and quarrying’ and ‘community, social and personal services’ faring better than last year at 5.3 per cent and 17.3 per cent, respectively.
[:a3:] [:a3:] 印度货币贬值多少了？
当年三哥不是要做“世界办公室”么？幸好三哥爱吹牛，要不当真的搞起“世界办公室”来，今次损失更惨重。
‘community, social and personal services’up 17.3 per cent??? 社区、社会和个人服务？ 看来卖淫业生意不但不受影响，还兴旺发达。:D
原帖由 fengxiang 于 2009-2-28 14:46 发表
[:a3:] [:a3:] 印度货币贬值多少了？
;P 2007年底2008年初曾经是39：1左右
原帖由 liii007 于 2009-2-28 15:46 发表
;P 2007年底2008年初曾经是39：1左右
据印度媒体自己预测，卢比汇率可能会跌倒60：1Rupee at historic low; why is it falling?
http://specials.rediff.com/money ... y-is-it-falling.htm
这么贬下去，2009年印度美刀GDP一定小于10000亿，而天朝却迈过50000亿这道坎了。:D
原帖由 jjjjhuojing 于 2009-2-28 14:56 发表
当年三哥不是要做“世界办公室”么？幸好三哥爱吹牛，要不当真的搞起“世界办公室”来，今次损失更惨重。
还是做神油全球加工基地吧。
[:a9:] 国大党如果不发动战争恐怕是要下台了
印度增长很快啊。我们不知道有没有6%
原帖由 aidoing 于 2009-2-28 21:41 发表
印度增长很快啊。我们不知道有没有6%
我们没有6%，我们只有6.8%。[:a6:]
卢比贬值对中国出口压力很大. 印度是有意无意的贬值,但是对出口绝对有利. 现在的印度就是十年前的中国.
原帖由 tomluter2.0 于 2009-2-28 22:40 发表
卢比贬值对中国出口压力很大. 印度是有意无意的贬值,但是对出口绝对有利. 现在的印度就是十年前的中国.
问题是阿三能出口什么?便宜的铁矿石?
传一个消息.但是我不知道这种威胁到底有多广.
印度抢占中国摩企出口市场
卢比贬值成就30%成本优势，中国摩企竞争力受损
【《财经网》专稿/记者 邓海】受金融风暴影响，中国摩托车出口额大幅下滑，而印度正借助汇率优势，通过价格手段借机扩张，抢夺市场。
目前，在重庆、广东、浙江等中国摩托车生产地，摩托车出口额都在大幅萎缩。根据重庆市经委的统计，重庆摩托车企业出口额已普遍下滑40%左右。而在广东，中国最大规模的摩托车制造商大长江集团有限公司，自去年10月以来，海外订单额最高月下滑幅度在60%左右。
国内主要的摩托车生产商隆鑫工业有限公司董事长高勇告诉《财经》记者，更令人担忧的是，随着印度摩托车工业规模的扩大和质量的提高，以及卢比对美元贬值导致成本下降，在海外摩托车市场，“中国制造”已不再具有强大竞争力。
高勇介绍说，中国摩托车的主要市场集中在东南亚、拉美和非洲地区，而这些地区在金融危机爆发后，在人民币对美元持续保持强势之际，当地货币对美元均贬值30%左右，造成进口中国产品成本增加；而同期印度对美元的汇率同样降低了30%左右，相当于在上述市场，印度摩托车比中国摩托车成本降低了30%左右。
高勇说，目前，印度摩托车相对中国摩托车，有20%左右的价格优势，挤占了中国摩托车海外市场30%左右的份额，印度厂商BAJAJ和英雄本田，甚至提出将中国摩托车企业挤出非洲和东南亚市场。
面对印度企业对摩托车出口市场的抢占，中国摩托车企业正面临更严峻考验。宗申产业集团有限公司总裁左宗申告诉《财经》记者，因为公司在海外的企业采取的是从中国进口配件加工的方式，导致生产成本大幅增加，目前公司的三个海外工厂中，巴西工厂暂停生产，而泰国与越南工厂每月产量只有1000辆。左宗申表示，将根据运行困难程度，考虑是否关闭海外工厂。
重庆市经委的一名官员告诉《财经》记者，印度借金融危机的机会，充分利用汇率及退税的双重保护支持，大规模抢占“中国制造”市场，并将其上升为国家战略。
印度抢占中国摩企出口市场
卢比贬值成就30%成本优势，中国摩企竞争力受损
【《财经网》专稿/记者 邓海】受金融风暴影响，中国摩托车出口额大幅下滑，而印度正借助汇率优势，通过价格手段借机扩张，抢夺市场。
目前，在重庆、广东、浙江等中国摩托车生产地，摩托车出口额都在大幅萎缩。根据重庆市经委的统计，重庆摩托车企业出口额已普遍下滑40%左右。而在广东，中国最大规模的摩托车制造商大长江集团有限公司，自去年10月以来，海外订单额最高月下滑幅度在60%左右。
国内主要的摩托车生产商隆鑫工业有限公司董事长高勇告诉《财经》记者，更令人担忧的是，随着印度摩托车工业规模的扩大和质量的提高，以及卢比对美元贬值导致成本下降，在海外摩托车市场，“中国制造”已不再具有强大竞争力。
高勇介绍说，中国摩托车的主要市场集中在东南亚、拉美和非洲地区，而这些地区在金融危机爆发后，在人民币对美元持续保持强势之际，当地货币对美元均贬值30%左右，造成进口中国产品成本增加；而同期印度对美元的汇率同样降低了30%左右，相当于在上述市场，印度摩托车比中国摩托车成本降低了30%左右。
高勇说，目前，印度摩托车相对中国摩托车，有20%左右的价格优势，挤占了中国摩托车海外市场30%左右的份额，印度厂商BAJAJ和英雄本田，甚至提出将中国摩托车企业挤出非洲和东南亚市场。
面对印度企业对摩托车出口市场的抢占，中国摩托车企业正面临更严峻考验。宗申产业集团有限公司总裁左宗申告诉《财经》记者，因为公司在海外的企业采取的是从中国进口配件加工的方式，导致生产成本大幅增加，目前公司的三个海外工厂中，巴西工厂暂停生产，而泰国与越南工厂每月产量只有1000辆。左宗申表示，将根据运行困难程度，考虑是否关闭海外工厂。
重庆市经委的一名官员告诉《财经》记者，印度借金融危机的机会，充分利用汇率及退税的双重保护支持，大规模抢占“中国制造”市场，并将其上升为国家战略。
原帖由 tomluter2.0 于 2009-2-28 22:59 发表
传一个消息.但是我不知道这种威胁到底有多广.
印度抢占中国摩企出口市场
卢比贬值成就30%成本优势，中国摩企竞争力受损
【《财经网》专稿/记者 邓海】受金融风暴影响，中国摩托车出口额大幅下滑，而印度 ...
不光是摩托，还有纺织等，威胁很大
我们要采取适当的措施阿
不过中国摩托行业只能在中低端竞争，利润微薄，高端仍然没有掌握多少核心技术。
不过中国摩托行业只能在中低端竞争，利润微薄，高端仍然没有掌握多少核心技术。
从这个数据看，阿三的经济增长潜力不小啊，比预想的好不少啊，现在看要从新研究一下阿三了