超级军网中国反卫星导弹试验专贴
来源：百度文库 编辑：超级军网 时间：2024/04/27 18:39:29
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Live Vote
What do you think about putting weapons in space?
America has to do it to keep the military high ground.
It's a bad idea because it will touch off a new arms race.
It's a bad idea because it will be a waste of money.
None of the above: I'm just not sure.
Vote to see results
Live Vote
What do you think about putting weapons in space? * 25342 responses
America has to do it to keep the military high ground.
49%
It's a bad idea because it will touch off a new arms race.
34%
It's a bad idea because it will be a waste of money.
12%
None of the above: I'm just not sure.
4.9%
What do you think about putting weapons in space?
America has to do it to keep the military high ground.
It's a bad idea because it will touch off a new arms race.
It's a bad idea because it will be a waste of money.
None of the above: I'm just not sure.
Vote to see results
Live Vote
What do you think about putting weapons in space? * 25342 responses
America has to do it to keep the military high ground.
49%
It's a bad idea because it will touch off a new arms race.
34%
It's a bad idea because it will be a waste of money.
12%
None of the above: I'm just not sure.
4.9%
那就来吧
关于反卫星武器的最新消息(Y!新闻翻译）
By Bruce W. MacDonald and Charles D. Ferguson,
Mon Jan 22, 3:00 AM ET
WASHINGTON - China's provocative test of an anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon last week shines a spotlight on the
long- overlooked national security issue of space weapons. Given the substantial US dependence on civilian and
military satellites, the successful test's implications are troubling for US security - and relations with China. Before
taking any hasty action, it would be prudent for the United States to think hard about how to react to this
worrisome Chinese move.
华盛顿消息: 中国上周进行一项有挑衅意味的反卫星武器试验(ASAT)引发太空军事化对国家安全的讨论.
由于美国严重依赖商用及军用卫星, 此项试验的成功给美国国家安全以及中美关系带来麻烦. 在作出应急对策前,
美国应周全考虑如何对应中国这一令人担忧的行为.
For years, Beijing has called for banning space weapons, but the test flies in the face of this rhetoric. Washington
and other governments are right to decry the test. However, it may reflect the logic the US used in the early
1980s when it deployed medium-range missiles in Europe to encourage the Soviet Union to negotiate limits on
these weapons.
多年来,北京一直呼吁全面禁止太空武器，但这次的试验打了北京自己的脸。华盛顿及其它国家政府有权谴责
这次试验。然而， 此次事件影响了美国在1980年代对欧洲和苏联商讨对中程导弹和类似武器限制所持的一贯政策。
Ironically, had the US conducted this test, it would have been entirely consistent with its newly revised policy that
places greater emphasis on offensive space capabilities. For several years, the Bush administration has signaled its
interest in attaining antisatellite capabilities and has openly rejected any interest in legal agreements that could
restrict countries from acquiring these capabilities. While China, Russia, and the US have demonstrated these
capabilities, any country with a ballistic missile program could develop an antisatellite weapon.
具有讽刺意味的是， 美国也曾进行过类似的试验，最新修订的太空防卫政策也重点强调了对太空防御的重视。 多年来，
布什政府也对反卫星武器有浓厚的兴趣并且拒绝签署相关禁止开发这些武器的协议，尽管中国，俄国和美国曾经探讨
这（全面禁止太空武器）的可能性。那些有弹道导弹开发计划的国家都可以发展卫星攻击武器。
"There is no arms race in space and we see no signs of one emerging," said Undersecretary of State Robert
Joseph last month. That remark is now probably moot, but America should pause before reacting with a
demonstration of its own. Negotiating restrictions on space weapons may be a better path forward.
上个月助理国务卿罗伯特.约瑟夫说“没有太空军备竞赛，我们也没有看到任何趋势”。
这番评论大概有问题，但当前美国应该停止相关计划并参与讨论相关限制太空武器的协议，这样前景会更好些。
China's test wasn't exactly a surprise. In Beijing last November, Chinese security experts told one of us that China
was worried about US space policy and Washington's apparent unwillingness to consider mutual restrictions on
offensive space weapons. They warned that China would respond with countermeasures if the US continued to
refuse negotiations on these weapons.
中国的此次行为并非意外。在去年12月的时候，北京的安全专家告诉我们一个同事，中国担心美国的太空政策及华盛顿
在限制太空攻击武器方面的所表现出的明显抵制。他们警告说中国会对美国拒绝限制太空武器发展协议作出回应。
At the very least, the US should consider a global ban on precisely the kind of weapon that China has
demonstrated. Apart from this technology's military significance, weapons like these produce huge amounts of
orbital debris that can damage all satellites and remain in orbit for many years - a dangerous legacy for all
spacefaring nations.
美国应考虑在全球范围内限制类似中国这次所展示的武器。抛开相关军事技术方面的讨论，仅仅是类似试验所带来的
大量太空垃圾将在很多年内，可能损坏运行在轨道上的卫星。这对所有开发太空的国家来说都是极其危险的。
The US could maintain many offensive options for space, if desirable, and still seek to ban weapons that create
debris, just as the US and former Soviet Union agreed to ban atmospheric nuclear tests for environmental reasons
in 1963 while still maintaining their ability to test nuclear weapons.
当然，如果可能的话美国也应保留一些太空武器。并在此基础上寻求禁止产生太空垃圾的武器。就像1963年美国和
前苏联所签订的全面限制核武器试验的协议一样,但仍可以保留进行核试验的能力。
The US response to China should take a mix of military and diplomatic steps:
美国应对中国采取如下的军事和外交政策：
* Make it clear to China that its ASAT test has damaged US-China relations and that more tests will have important
economic and other consequences.
*向中国明确表示这次的反卫星武器已经损害中美关系，进一步的试验会将在经济或其它方面产生严重的后果。
* Accelerate programs to protect its satellites against ASAT weapons of all kinds, including lasers.
*加速克制反卫星武器的计划来保护卫星，包括激光武器计划。
* Perform a thorough assessment of possible threats to its space assets, and the best options, military and
diplomatic, for countering them.
*对太空资产作彻底的评估，并且选择最佳方式，军事的或外交的，来对应这些行为。
* Reexamine its unwillingness to discuss limits on space weaponry. Washington loses nothing by talking, and it
hardly serves its interests for a technologically advancing China to attain an antisatellite arsenal.
*有必要重新考量我们对限制太空武器协议所持反对态度。谈判对我们没有损失，但可以缓解中国获得太空武器技术
进程。
* Recognize that a space-arms competition could have unwanted consequences.
*意识到太空武器军备竞赛会带来都不愿意看到的后果。
America stands at a critical space-weapons threshold. Whatever steps it takes, it should carefully weigh its options,
mindful that once the US and China cross this space Rubicon, they may never be able to cross back.
美国应为危险的太空武器设立门槛。 我们要在实施这此政策前详尽考虑这些措施及后果，因为一但中美
两国在此问题上产生分歧，可能会带来不可挽回的后果。
* ~~i~~Bruce W. MacDonald was assistant director for national security in the Science Adviser's office in the
Clinton White House. Charles D. Ferguson is a fellow for science and technology at the Council on Foreign
Relations.~~/i~~
／对作者的介绍，不翻译。
By Bruce W. MacDonald and Charles D. Ferguson,
Mon Jan 22, 3:00 AM ET
WASHINGTON - China's provocative test of an anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon last week shines a spotlight on the
long- overlooked national security issue of space weapons. Given the substantial US dependence on civilian and
military satellites, the successful test's implications are troubling for US security - and relations with China. Before
taking any hasty action, it would be prudent for the United States to think hard about how to react to this
worrisome Chinese move.
华盛顿消息: 中国上周进行一项有挑衅意味的反卫星武器试验(ASAT)引发太空军事化对国家安全的讨论.
由于美国严重依赖商用及军用卫星, 此项试验的成功给美国国家安全以及中美关系带来麻烦. 在作出应急对策前,
美国应周全考虑如何对应中国这一令人担忧的行为.
For years, Beijing has called for banning space weapons, but the test flies in the face of this rhetoric. Washington
and other governments are right to decry the test. However, it may reflect the logic the US used in the early
1980s when it deployed medium-range missiles in Europe to encourage the Soviet Union to negotiate limits on
these weapons.
多年来,北京一直呼吁全面禁止太空武器，但这次的试验打了北京自己的脸。华盛顿及其它国家政府有权谴责
这次试验。然而， 此次事件影响了美国在1980年代对欧洲和苏联商讨对中程导弹和类似武器限制所持的一贯政策。
Ironically, had the US conducted this test, it would have been entirely consistent with its newly revised policy that
places greater emphasis on offensive space capabilities. For several years, the Bush administration has signaled its
interest in attaining antisatellite capabilities and has openly rejected any interest in legal agreements that could
restrict countries from acquiring these capabilities. While China, Russia, and the US have demonstrated these
capabilities, any country with a ballistic missile program could develop an antisatellite weapon.
具有讽刺意味的是， 美国也曾进行过类似的试验，最新修订的太空防卫政策也重点强调了对太空防御的重视。 多年来，
布什政府也对反卫星武器有浓厚的兴趣并且拒绝签署相关禁止开发这些武器的协议，尽管中国，俄国和美国曾经探讨
这（全面禁止太空武器）的可能性。那些有弹道导弹开发计划的国家都可以发展卫星攻击武器。
"There is no arms race in space and we see no signs of one emerging," said Undersecretary of State Robert
Joseph last month. That remark is now probably moot, but America should pause before reacting with a
demonstration of its own. Negotiating restrictions on space weapons may be a better path forward.
上个月助理国务卿罗伯特.约瑟夫说“没有太空军备竞赛，我们也没有看到任何趋势”。
这番评论大概有问题，但当前美国应该停止相关计划并参与讨论相关限制太空武器的协议，这样前景会更好些。
China's test wasn't exactly a surprise. In Beijing last November, Chinese security experts told one of us that China
was worried about US space policy and Washington's apparent unwillingness to consider mutual restrictions on
offensive space weapons. They warned that China would respond with countermeasures if the US continued to
refuse negotiations on these weapons.
中国的此次行为并非意外。在去年12月的时候，北京的安全专家告诉我们一个同事，中国担心美国的太空政策及华盛顿
在限制太空攻击武器方面的所表现出的明显抵制。他们警告说中国会对美国拒绝限制太空武器发展协议作出回应。
At the very least, the US should consider a global ban on precisely the kind of weapon that China has
demonstrated. Apart from this technology's military significance, weapons like these produce huge amounts of
orbital debris that can damage all satellites and remain in orbit for many years - a dangerous legacy for all
spacefaring nations.
美国应考虑在全球范围内限制类似中国这次所展示的武器。抛开相关军事技术方面的讨论，仅仅是类似试验所带来的
大量太空垃圾将在很多年内，可能损坏运行在轨道上的卫星。这对所有开发太空的国家来说都是极其危险的。
The US could maintain many offensive options for space, if desirable, and still seek to ban weapons that create
debris, just as the US and former Soviet Union agreed to ban atmospheric nuclear tests for environmental reasons
in 1963 while still maintaining their ability to test nuclear weapons.
当然，如果可能的话美国也应保留一些太空武器。并在此基础上寻求禁止产生太空垃圾的武器。就像1963年美国和
前苏联所签订的全面限制核武器试验的协议一样,但仍可以保留进行核试验的能力。
The US response to China should take a mix of military and diplomatic steps:
美国应对中国采取如下的军事和外交政策：
* Make it clear to China that its ASAT test has damaged US-China relations and that more tests will have important
economic and other consequences.
*向中国明确表示这次的反卫星武器已经损害中美关系，进一步的试验会将在经济或其它方面产生严重的后果。
* Accelerate programs to protect its satellites against ASAT weapons of all kinds, including lasers.
*加速克制反卫星武器的计划来保护卫星，包括激光武器计划。
* Perform a thorough assessment of possible threats to its space assets, and the best options, military and
diplomatic, for countering them.
*对太空资产作彻底的评估，并且选择最佳方式，军事的或外交的，来对应这些行为。
* Reexamine its unwillingness to discuss limits on space weaponry. Washington loses nothing by talking, and it
hardly serves its interests for a technologically advancing China to attain an antisatellite arsenal.
*有必要重新考量我们对限制太空武器协议所持反对态度。谈判对我们没有损失，但可以缓解中国获得太空武器技术
进程。
* Recognize that a space-arms competition could have unwanted consequences.
*意识到太空武器军备竞赛会带来都不愿意看到的后果。
America stands at a critical space-weapons threshold. Whatever steps it takes, it should carefully weigh its options,
mindful that once the US and China cross this space Rubicon, they may never be able to cross back.
美国应为危险的太空武器设立门槛。 我们要在实施这此政策前详尽考虑这些措施及后果，因为一但中美
两国在此问题上产生分歧，可能会带来不可挽回的后果。
* ~~i~~Bruce W. MacDonald was assistant director for national security in the Science Adviser's office in the
Clinton White House. Charles D. Ferguson is a fellow for science and technology at the Council on Foreign
Relations.~~/i~~
／对作者的介绍，不翻译。
中国越强大
中美关系越不会被损害
中美关系越不会被损害
只有中国强大了才会存在真正平等的中美关系
这件事，咱们官方还没有正式回应，估计也不会有正式回应，所以，就看那些国家闹去吧，就当看小品了～
而且，引起太空军事化，也不应该归到咱国头上吧，就好像米国人天天无所事事，整天除了吃饭，睡觉，就是晒太阳似的～
而且，引起太空军事化，也不应该归到咱国头上吧，就好像米国人天天无所事事，整天除了吃饭，睡觉，就是晒太阳似的～
在去年12月的时候，北京的安全专家告诉我们一个同事，中国担心美国的太空政策及华盛顿在限制太空攻击武器方面的所表现出的明显抵制。他们警告说中国会对美国拒绝限制太空武器发展协议作出回应。
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谁能翻译下...
]]
]]
哇，LZ火星来到。:L
非常感谢翻译此文,谢谢老大啊
哈哈，笑死我了，Lz
发贴过于分散,造成版面混乱,所以反卫星导弹内容皆放于此,谢谢合作.
谢谢老大啊
谢谢楼主的分享！
早就料到了，tg和米人都不是被是吓打的
“The US could maintain many offensive options for space, if desirable, and still seek to ban weapons that create ”
TMD,看了就来气！
TMD,看了就来气！
谢谢楼主的分享！
恐怖的平衡
供大家参考。
http://www.strategycenter.net/research/pubID.142/pub_detail.asp
China’s Direct Ascent ASAT
"China is believed to be conducting research and development on a direct-ascent ASAT [anti-satellite] system that could be fielded in the 2005-2010 timeframe."[1] This prediction from the 2003 Department of Defense annual report on Chinese military modernization became a reality on January 11, 2007 when a Chinese direct ascent ASAT intercepted and destroyed a Chinese weather satellite over China.
According to U.S. government sources, on January 11, 2007, China launched a missile which intercepted and destroyed a Chinese FY-1C weather satellite as it passed over China. This was first reported on January 17 by Craig Covault, the respected space reporter for Aviation Week and Space Technology.[2] On the morning of January 18, Reuters reported U.S. National Security Council spokesman Gordon Johndroe as saying with a "…a ground-based medium-range ballistic missile, the test knocked out an aging Chinese weather satellite about 537 miles above the earth on January 11 through "kinetic impact," or by slamming into it."[3]
On January 19 Chinese Foreign Affairs spokesman Liu Jianchao declined to confirm what the U.S. assuredly knew, saying, "So far we have not got any confirmed information about this." He then assured, "There's no need to feel threatened about this…We are not going to get into any arms race in space."[4] The reality is that after years of denying itself an operational ASAT capability, the United States has none, and now faces the prospect of such an arms race. Furthermore, the United States and its allies must confront the additional challenges of China as a military-space power and also consider the real price of future cooperation with China in space.
KT-1 ASAT
From the details disclosed by NSC spokesman Gordon Johndroe, it is possible to conclude tentatively that China tested an ASAT version of its Katzouie-1 (Pioneer-1, KT-1) mobile, solid fuel space launch vehicle (SLV), derived from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) DF-21 medium range ballistic missile. The KT-1 was first revealed at the November 2000 Zhuhai Airshow in conjunction with Tsinghua University’s then also new "Tsinghua-1" microsatellite, which had just been launched the previous June by a Russian booster. At the November 2002 Zhuhai show an official from the China Aerospace Solid Propellant Launch Vehicle company (ASLV) of the China Aerospace Science and Industry (CASIC) consortium confirmed this author’s suspicion that the KT-1 was based on the DF-21. About 38 to 50 of the 1,700km to 2,500km range DF-21s serves in the dedicated Second Artillery missile service of the PLA.
KT-1: Model of the KT-1 mobile solid fuel SLV, seen at the 2002 Zhuhai show, which very likely formed the basis for the ASAT launcher used by China to destroy a weather satellite on January 11, 2007. Credit: RD Fisher
At the 2004 Zhuhai Airshow a CASIC official stated that the KT-1 has so far accomplished four test launches. The first test in September 2002 reportedly ended in failure. It is likely there have been additional unreported tests since 2004.
A brochure from the ASLV states the KT-1 uses solid fuel motors for its four stages, and that it can launch up to a 100kg payload into Low Earth Orbit (LEO) or to a Polar Orbit, in which a satellite revolved around the North and South poles. Polar orbits are usually used by observation and surveillance satellites, be they for weather, ground mapping, resource management or military reconnaissance missions. Japan, India, South Korea and Taiwan operate surveillance satellites that use Polar Orbits, as does the United States.
At the 2002 Zhuhai show ASLV displayed a video showing how the a KT-1 SLV could be transported and launched from a truck-based transporter-erector-launcher (TEL).
As has been reported previously by this analyst, this combination of a microsatellite and a mobile and solid-fuel SLV is ideally suited for anti-satellite missions.[5] A mobile SLV does not rely on fixed launch facilities, which then require waiting for a targeted satellite to fly over the launch facility. A mobile SLV can be pre-positioned on Chinese, or even foreign territory, in anticipation of a target satellite fly-over, in order to conduct a surprise attack.
KT-1 Brochure: CASIC brochure showing components of the KT-1. Credit: CASIC
A KT-1 ASAT Benefits From Foreign Technology
If the assumption that China’s first direct ascent ASAT is based on the KT-1 SLV proves correct, then it is also possible to conclude that China’s first direct ascent ASAT benefits directly from U.S. and British space technology. According to a Chinese engineer who worked with Fourth Academy of the China Aerospace Corporation, responsible for solid rocket motors, China was only able to make the rocket motor for the DF-21 work reliably after receiving solid fuel rocket motor insulation technology from the former U.S. Martin Marietta Corporation.[6] This engineer stated, "Before we received this help from the United States, China had never succeeded in developing propellants powerful enough to be used for strategic-range solid-fuel rockets."[7] In early 2000 the U.S. fined Lockheed, which had by this point purchased Martin Marietta, $13 million for violating U.S. export control laws in relation to this case.[8]
China’s ASAT kill vehicle used in the January 11 demonstration also very likely benefits from China’s access to foreign micro and nano satellite technology. China jumped into the forefront of micro satellite technology in October 1998, when Tsinghua University entered into a co-development contract with Britain’s Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd.[9], perhaps the world’s leading microsat firm. This cooperation enabled Tsinghua to build its 50kg Tsinghua-1 micro satellite, which was launched in June 2000 along with Surrey’s 6.7 kg (14 lb) Snap-1 nano satellite, which photographed the Tsinghua-1. China has since produced many different types of micro and nano satellites, launching its first NS-1 nano satellite in April 2004.
KT-2 and Beyond
At the 2002 Zhuhai show ASLV revealed two new SLVs, the larger KT-2 and even larger KT-2A. A ASLV spokesman said that the KT-2 was derived from the DF-31 ICBM. It is expected to lift one 300kg payload into geostationary transfer orbit (GTO) (22,000 mile altitude) or to a polar orbit. Finally, the KT-2A SLV is a larger KT-2 that is very likely analogous to the DF-31A ICBM. With two solid-fuel strap-on boosters, this SLV is capable of carrying three 100kg payloads or one 400kg payload.[10] According to ASLV Co. brochures, both the KT-2 and KT-2A were to be ready by 2005, but this cannot be confirmed. The KT-2 and KT-2A can be also be launched from a truck-based TEL, or possibly from a transport aircraft.[11]
Future ASATS ?: KT family of SLV: KT-2, KT-2A and KT-1. Credit: RD Fisher
For potential ASAT missions, the KT family can cover most contingencies. The KT-1 can intercept target satellites in Low Earth Orbit (@200 mile altitude) or higher Polar Orbits. LEO satellites comprise a large number of communication satellites, while as noted earlier; Polar Orbits are used by many surveillance satellites. GTO is used by higher altitude U.S. surveillance satellites like the DPS missile launch warning satellites or electronic or signals intelligence satellites (ELINT/SIGINT). Lower 12,000 mile altitudes are used by U.S. navigation satellites, known as Global Positioning Satellites (GPS).
But China may also be developing an even more flexible ASAT launcher. At the 2006 Zhuhai Airshow the China Aerospace Corporation revealed its Air Launched Launch Vehicle (ALLV), which is a small solid fueled missile launched from a PLA Xian H-6 medium bomber. It is very similar in shape and concept to the U.S. Orbital Corporation’s Pegasus air-launched SLV. Brochure information released at the show indicate it can loft a 50kg payload to an altitude of 500km (310 miles) meaning it is confined to Low Earth Orbit. One advantage for the ALLV is that it can achieve a launch position much faster than the KT family. It is possible that with first-stage strap-on boosters the AALV might be able to reach Polar Orbits.
ALLV: Air Launched Launch Vehicle model revealed for the first time at the 2006 Zhuhai Airshow. Credit: Chinese Internet
Furthermore, Chinese military academic writings indicate that the PLA may also be considering using nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines to launch direct ascent ASAT missiles. In early 2004 one Chinese author with the Dalian Naval Academy noted, "By deploying just a few anti-satellite nuclear submarines in the ocean, one can seriously threaten the entire military space system of the enemy. In addition to anti-satellite operations, these nuclear submarines can also be used for launching low orbit tactical micro-satellites to serve as powerful real time battlefield intelligence support."[12]
Long Standing Concerns Confirmed
It can now be concluded that the longstanding concern of many in the U.S. defense and intelligence community about China’s development of military space capabilities has been proven correct. Beginning with the first 1998 Congress-mandated Department of Defense report to the Congress on Chinese military modernization, the U.S. intelligence community has warned of Chinese interest in using high-power lasers to damage or even destroy U.S. satellites. However, none of the Pentagon reports acknowledged what was disclosed in September 2006 by the U.S. publication Defense News: China has actually fired lasers at U.S. satellites, amounting to "several tests over the past several years."[13] This report then says, "’The Chinese are very strategically minded and are extremely active in this arena," said one senior former Pentagon official. ‘They really believe all the stuff written in the 1980s about the high frontier and are looking at symmetrical and asymmetrical means to offset American dominance in space.’"[14]
Indeed, Chinese analysts have long noted the deep dependence upon, and thus vulnerability of United States to attacks against its military space assets.[15] There is also an extensive Chinese literature on space warfare.[16] As the recent ASAT test demonstrates, China is actively preparing to contest military control of outer-space. Apparently, in recent years there has been some debate within the PLA over which service should control military-space[17], with recent reporting tending toward the future formation of anew and independent "Space Force" directly subordinate to the PLA’s leading body, the Central Military Commission.[18] Such an independent Space Force, according to these reports, would favor the CMC’s General Armaments Department, which currently controls all of China’s space activities, from manned Shenzhou space capsule missions to the January 11 ASAT test. The PLA Air Force has also been bucking for the space warfare job.
It is worthwhile to consider what other systems China may employ for a future "Space Force." Inasmuch as China has used all of its unmanned and manned missions of its six Shenzhou manned space capsules to perform both civil and military missions, one has to consider that future Chinese space stations may also be outfitted to perform military missions.[19] At the 2006 Zhuhai show China revealed the most detailed model of its proposed Space Lab, about the size of the former Soviet era Salyut space station, some of which the Soviets armed with cannon and used for military missions. It would logical to expect that when China launches its space lab, and subsequent larger space stations, they could either initially fly with military equipment, or be given new module that could contain weapons or surveillance equipment when needed.
Modular Space Lab Concept: China’s modular space lab concept means that military modules equipped with anti-satellite weapons or other military equipment can be fitted after the lab is initially launched. Credit: Chinese Internet
China’s successful ASAT test also points toward another potential interest: developing anti-ballistic missile (ABM) capabilities. Many of the technologies needed to track target satellites and then kill them are applicable to shooting down faster intercontinental ballistic missile warheads. Indeed, China’s first ABM program dates back to the 1950s, when China started its ballistic missile program. China even developed prototype ABM missiles similar in configuration to the first generation U.S. Sprint ABMs. The ABM mission might be another for a potential PLA Space Force.
Cooperation in Space?
For several years there have been many in and outside the U.S. government who have favored doing something with China in outer space, from outreach to outright space cooperation.[20] The Bush Administration has initiated an official dialogue with China, sending National Aeronautics and Space Administration Director Michael Griffin to China in September 2006, but achieving no agreement for cooperation.[21] Advocates of caution in space cooperation with China have repeatedly pointed to the direct role of the People’s Liberation Army in all of China’s space activities, and the potential for any level of U.S. cooperation to benefit China’s military-space power. This warning was delivered by the 1998-99 bi-partisan Select Commission of the U.S. House of Representatives, chaired by former Congressman Christopher Cox. It has direct relevance to the latest January 11 ASAT test.
The company that very likely developed China’s first direct ascent ASAT is a creature of the People’s Liberation Army. In May 2000 the China Aerospace Solid-propellent Launch Vehicle Co. Ltd. (ASLV) was formed to build a solid fueled mobile space launch vehicle.[22] This company’s close relationship to the PLA was illustrated in that its establishment ceremony was attended by former CMC Vice Chairman General Liu Huaqing, and then Vice Commander of the Second Artillery General Huang Cisheng.[23] China would dearly like to sign up paying customers to launch their economic micro or nano satellites. But doing so would constitute a direct subsidy for China’s ASAT program.
Despite the repeatedly proven relationship between China’s civil and military space sectors, there appears to be an inconsistent message from Europe. On January 18, 2007 European Union External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner stated that the EU was not ready to lift its 1989 arms embargo on China.[24] However, on January 17, 2007 European Space Agency Chief Jean-Jacques Dordain was advocating manned space cooperation with China, saying, "I would like very much to discuss this with our Chinese partners, if they make the proposal…At the moment, we have a lot of cooperation with China in other space exploration domains, but not yet in the field of manned flights."[25] However, there is no assurance that China would not take what it might learn from such cooperation with Europe and apply it to future military-space capabilities.
Conclusion
China has been one of the most forceful proponents of the demilitarization of outer space, yet on January 11 it took the most profound step toward starting a new military-space race. China’s denials of its January 11 test are reminiscent of its many denials that it transferred nuclear weapons technology to Pakistan and Iran as well as missile technology to these and other countries. In the area of proliferation, and now space, China is proving that it does not want to abide by norms or rules written by the West. Despite the fact that both its nuclear proliferation and now its military space proliferation will create more dangers for the Chinese people, China’s Communist Party leadership has decided that both are in its interests.
The United States and its allies are now faced with a new reality. The relatively new surveillance satellites of India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, plus the many more military and civilian satellites of the United States and her European allies are under threat. So too are Russian systems.
Having denied itself an ASAT capability, starting with the cancelled development of F-15 fighter launched ASAT missiles in the 1980s, the United States (and the other countries mentioned) would appear to lack any means to retaliate against a potential Chinese space attack.
字节太长，省略参考文献。
http://www.strategycenter.net/research/pubID.142/pub_detail.asp
China’s Direct Ascent ASAT
"China is believed to be conducting research and development on a direct-ascent ASAT [anti-satellite] system that could be fielded in the 2005-2010 timeframe."[1] This prediction from the 2003 Department of Defense annual report on Chinese military modernization became a reality on January 11, 2007 when a Chinese direct ascent ASAT intercepted and destroyed a Chinese weather satellite over China.
According to U.S. government sources, on January 11, 2007, China launched a missile which intercepted and destroyed a Chinese FY-1C weather satellite as it passed over China. This was first reported on January 17 by Craig Covault, the respected space reporter for Aviation Week and Space Technology.[2] On the morning of January 18, Reuters reported U.S. National Security Council spokesman Gordon Johndroe as saying with a "…a ground-based medium-range ballistic missile, the test knocked out an aging Chinese weather satellite about 537 miles above the earth on January 11 through "kinetic impact," or by slamming into it."[3]
On January 19 Chinese Foreign Affairs spokesman Liu Jianchao declined to confirm what the U.S. assuredly knew, saying, "So far we have not got any confirmed information about this." He then assured, "There's no need to feel threatened about this…We are not going to get into any arms race in space."[4] The reality is that after years of denying itself an operational ASAT capability, the United States has none, and now faces the prospect of such an arms race. Furthermore, the United States and its allies must confront the additional challenges of China as a military-space power and also consider the real price of future cooperation with China in space.
KT-1 ASAT
From the details disclosed by NSC spokesman Gordon Johndroe, it is possible to conclude tentatively that China tested an ASAT version of its Katzouie-1 (Pioneer-1, KT-1) mobile, solid fuel space launch vehicle (SLV), derived from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) DF-21 medium range ballistic missile. The KT-1 was first revealed at the November 2000 Zhuhai Airshow in conjunction with Tsinghua University’s then also new "Tsinghua-1" microsatellite, which had just been launched the previous June by a Russian booster. At the November 2002 Zhuhai show an official from the China Aerospace Solid Propellant Launch Vehicle company (ASLV) of the China Aerospace Science and Industry (CASIC) consortium confirmed this author’s suspicion that the KT-1 was based on the DF-21. About 38 to 50 of the 1,700km to 2,500km range DF-21s serves in the dedicated Second Artillery missile service of the PLA.
KT-1: Model of the KT-1 mobile solid fuel SLV, seen at the 2002 Zhuhai show, which very likely formed the basis for the ASAT launcher used by China to destroy a weather satellite on January 11, 2007. Credit: RD Fisher
At the 2004 Zhuhai Airshow a CASIC official stated that the KT-1 has so far accomplished four test launches. The first test in September 2002 reportedly ended in failure. It is likely there have been additional unreported tests since 2004.
A brochure from the ASLV states the KT-1 uses solid fuel motors for its four stages, and that it can launch up to a 100kg payload into Low Earth Orbit (LEO) or to a Polar Orbit, in which a satellite revolved around the North and South poles. Polar orbits are usually used by observation and surveillance satellites, be they for weather, ground mapping, resource management or military reconnaissance missions. Japan, India, South Korea and Taiwan operate surveillance satellites that use Polar Orbits, as does the United States.
At the 2002 Zhuhai show ASLV displayed a video showing how the a KT-1 SLV could be transported and launched from a truck-based transporter-erector-launcher (TEL).
As has been reported previously by this analyst, this combination of a microsatellite and a mobile and solid-fuel SLV is ideally suited for anti-satellite missions.[5] A mobile SLV does not rely on fixed launch facilities, which then require waiting for a targeted satellite to fly over the launch facility. A mobile SLV can be pre-positioned on Chinese, or even foreign territory, in anticipation of a target satellite fly-over, in order to conduct a surprise attack.
KT-1 Brochure: CASIC brochure showing components of the KT-1. Credit: CASIC
A KT-1 ASAT Benefits From Foreign Technology
If the assumption that China’s first direct ascent ASAT is based on the KT-1 SLV proves correct, then it is also possible to conclude that China’s first direct ascent ASAT benefits directly from U.S. and British space technology. According to a Chinese engineer who worked with Fourth Academy of the China Aerospace Corporation, responsible for solid rocket motors, China was only able to make the rocket motor for the DF-21 work reliably after receiving solid fuel rocket motor insulation technology from the former U.S. Martin Marietta Corporation.[6] This engineer stated, "Before we received this help from the United States, China had never succeeded in developing propellants powerful enough to be used for strategic-range solid-fuel rockets."[7] In early 2000 the U.S. fined Lockheed, which had by this point purchased Martin Marietta, $13 million for violating U.S. export control laws in relation to this case.[8]
China’s ASAT kill vehicle used in the January 11 demonstration also very likely benefits from China’s access to foreign micro and nano satellite technology. China jumped into the forefront of micro satellite technology in October 1998, when Tsinghua University entered into a co-development contract with Britain’s Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd.[9], perhaps the world’s leading microsat firm. This cooperation enabled Tsinghua to build its 50kg Tsinghua-1 micro satellite, which was launched in June 2000 along with Surrey’s 6.7 kg (14 lb) Snap-1 nano satellite, which photographed the Tsinghua-1. China has since produced many different types of micro and nano satellites, launching its first NS-1 nano satellite in April 2004.
KT-2 and Beyond
At the 2002 Zhuhai show ASLV revealed two new SLVs, the larger KT-2 and even larger KT-2A. A ASLV spokesman said that the KT-2 was derived from the DF-31 ICBM. It is expected to lift one 300kg payload into geostationary transfer orbit (GTO) (22,000 mile altitude) or to a polar orbit. Finally, the KT-2A SLV is a larger KT-2 that is very likely analogous to the DF-31A ICBM. With two solid-fuel strap-on boosters, this SLV is capable of carrying three 100kg payloads or one 400kg payload.[10] According to ASLV Co. brochures, both the KT-2 and KT-2A were to be ready by 2005, but this cannot be confirmed. The KT-2 and KT-2A can be also be launched from a truck-based TEL, or possibly from a transport aircraft.[11]
Future ASATS ?: KT family of SLV: KT-2, KT-2A and KT-1. Credit: RD Fisher
For potential ASAT missions, the KT family can cover most contingencies. The KT-1 can intercept target satellites in Low Earth Orbit (@200 mile altitude) or higher Polar Orbits. LEO satellites comprise a large number of communication satellites, while as noted earlier; Polar Orbits are used by many surveillance satellites. GTO is used by higher altitude U.S. surveillance satellites like the DPS missile launch warning satellites or electronic or signals intelligence satellites (ELINT/SIGINT). Lower 12,000 mile altitudes are used by U.S. navigation satellites, known as Global Positioning Satellites (GPS).
But China may also be developing an even more flexible ASAT launcher. At the 2006 Zhuhai Airshow the China Aerospace Corporation revealed its Air Launched Launch Vehicle (ALLV), which is a small solid fueled missile launched from a PLA Xian H-6 medium bomber. It is very similar in shape and concept to the U.S. Orbital Corporation’s Pegasus air-launched SLV. Brochure information released at the show indicate it can loft a 50kg payload to an altitude of 500km (310 miles) meaning it is confined to Low Earth Orbit. One advantage for the ALLV is that it can achieve a launch position much faster than the KT family. It is possible that with first-stage strap-on boosters the AALV might be able to reach Polar Orbits.
ALLV: Air Launched Launch Vehicle model revealed for the first time at the 2006 Zhuhai Airshow. Credit: Chinese Internet
Furthermore, Chinese military academic writings indicate that the PLA may also be considering using nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines to launch direct ascent ASAT missiles. In early 2004 one Chinese author with the Dalian Naval Academy noted, "By deploying just a few anti-satellite nuclear submarines in the ocean, one can seriously threaten the entire military space system of the enemy. In addition to anti-satellite operations, these nuclear submarines can also be used for launching low orbit tactical micro-satellites to serve as powerful real time battlefield intelligence support."[12]
Long Standing Concerns Confirmed
It can now be concluded that the longstanding concern of many in the U.S. defense and intelligence community about China’s development of military space capabilities has been proven correct. Beginning with the first 1998 Congress-mandated Department of Defense report to the Congress on Chinese military modernization, the U.S. intelligence community has warned of Chinese interest in using high-power lasers to damage or even destroy U.S. satellites. However, none of the Pentagon reports acknowledged what was disclosed in September 2006 by the U.S. publication Defense News: China has actually fired lasers at U.S. satellites, amounting to "several tests over the past several years."[13] This report then says, "’The Chinese are very strategically minded and are extremely active in this arena," said one senior former Pentagon official. ‘They really believe all the stuff written in the 1980s about the high frontier and are looking at symmetrical and asymmetrical means to offset American dominance in space.’"[14]
Indeed, Chinese analysts have long noted the deep dependence upon, and thus vulnerability of United States to attacks against its military space assets.[15] There is also an extensive Chinese literature on space warfare.[16] As the recent ASAT test demonstrates, China is actively preparing to contest military control of outer-space. Apparently, in recent years there has been some debate within the PLA over which service should control military-space[17], with recent reporting tending toward the future formation of anew and independent "Space Force" directly subordinate to the PLA’s leading body, the Central Military Commission.[18] Such an independent Space Force, according to these reports, would favor the CMC’s General Armaments Department, which currently controls all of China’s space activities, from manned Shenzhou space capsule missions to the January 11 ASAT test. The PLA Air Force has also been bucking for the space warfare job.
It is worthwhile to consider what other systems China may employ for a future "Space Force." Inasmuch as China has used all of its unmanned and manned missions of its six Shenzhou manned space capsules to perform both civil and military missions, one has to consider that future Chinese space stations may also be outfitted to perform military missions.[19] At the 2006 Zhuhai show China revealed the most detailed model of its proposed Space Lab, about the size of the former Soviet era Salyut space station, some of which the Soviets armed with cannon and used for military missions. It would logical to expect that when China launches its space lab, and subsequent larger space stations, they could either initially fly with military equipment, or be given new module that could contain weapons or surveillance equipment when needed.
Modular Space Lab Concept: China’s modular space lab concept means that military modules equipped with anti-satellite weapons or other military equipment can be fitted after the lab is initially launched. Credit: Chinese Internet
China’s successful ASAT test also points toward another potential interest: developing anti-ballistic missile (ABM) capabilities. Many of the technologies needed to track target satellites and then kill them are applicable to shooting down faster intercontinental ballistic missile warheads. Indeed, China’s first ABM program dates back to the 1950s, when China started its ballistic missile program. China even developed prototype ABM missiles similar in configuration to the first generation U.S. Sprint ABMs. The ABM mission might be another for a potential PLA Space Force.
Cooperation in Space?
For several years there have been many in and outside the U.S. government who have favored doing something with China in outer space, from outreach to outright space cooperation.[20] The Bush Administration has initiated an official dialogue with China, sending National Aeronautics and Space Administration Director Michael Griffin to China in September 2006, but achieving no agreement for cooperation.[21] Advocates of caution in space cooperation with China have repeatedly pointed to the direct role of the People’s Liberation Army in all of China’s space activities, and the potential for any level of U.S. cooperation to benefit China’s military-space power. This warning was delivered by the 1998-99 bi-partisan Select Commission of the U.S. House of Representatives, chaired by former Congressman Christopher Cox. It has direct relevance to the latest January 11 ASAT test.
The company that very likely developed China’s first direct ascent ASAT is a creature of the People’s Liberation Army. In May 2000 the China Aerospace Solid-propellent Launch Vehicle Co. Ltd. (ASLV) was formed to build a solid fueled mobile space launch vehicle.[22] This company’s close relationship to the PLA was illustrated in that its establishment ceremony was attended by former CMC Vice Chairman General Liu Huaqing, and then Vice Commander of the Second Artillery General Huang Cisheng.[23] China would dearly like to sign up paying customers to launch their economic micro or nano satellites. But doing so would constitute a direct subsidy for China’s ASAT program.
Despite the repeatedly proven relationship between China’s civil and military space sectors, there appears to be an inconsistent message from Europe. On January 18, 2007 European Union External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner stated that the EU was not ready to lift its 1989 arms embargo on China.[24] However, on January 17, 2007 European Space Agency Chief Jean-Jacques Dordain was advocating manned space cooperation with China, saying, "I would like very much to discuss this with our Chinese partners, if they make the proposal…At the moment, we have a lot of cooperation with China in other space exploration domains, but not yet in the field of manned flights."[25] However, there is no assurance that China would not take what it might learn from such cooperation with Europe and apply it to future military-space capabilities.
Conclusion
China has been one of the most forceful proponents of the demilitarization of outer space, yet on January 11 it took the most profound step toward starting a new military-space race. China’s denials of its January 11 test are reminiscent of its many denials that it transferred nuclear weapons technology to Pakistan and Iran as well as missile technology to these and other countries. In the area of proliferation, and now space, China is proving that it does not want to abide by norms or rules written by the West. Despite the fact that both its nuclear proliferation and now its military space proliferation will create more dangers for the Chinese people, China’s Communist Party leadership has decided that both are in its interests.
The United States and its allies are now faced with a new reality. The relatively new surveillance satellites of India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, plus the many more military and civilian satellites of the United States and her European allies are under threat. So too are Russian systems.
Having denied itself an ASAT capability, starting with the cancelled development of F-15 fighter launched ASAT missiles in the 1980s, the United States (and the other countries mentioned) would appear to lack any means to retaliate against a potential Chinese space attack.
字节太长，省略参考文献。
支持台独的时侯怎么没想过中美关系啊,现在想起来了啊???炸我们大使馆的时侯想起过中美关系没有???扶持日本建立日美同盟共同干涉台海的时侯想过中美关系没有???
某些友邦不是愤怒我们制造了成千上万片的太空垃圾吗？
那好，用我们的神光武器把这些太空垃圾碎片一一清除掉，彻底让他们闭嘴！
那好，用我们的神光武器把这些太空垃圾碎片一一清除掉，彻底让他们闭嘴！
我顶,这个既艰巨又光荣的任务就交给你拉:handshake
神光？不用钱吗？这钱是不是你出呢？
可以发射个磁力球，发射入轨，然后启动内部内置磁场，就像李连杰的《太极张三丰》里的那个树叶球，利用本身强大的磁力场，把周围的太空碎片全部吸引过来，就像吸铁石一样，然后返回地球，中国将被尊为楷模，万国崇敬。
只要国家愿意给我五十万亿美元(可以分期付款)
我就飞到太空把垃圾在一夜之间全干掉
我就飞到太空把垃圾在一夜之间全干掉
看了这么多人的争论，我说一句：
几年前我们就已经实验过了，kgw几年前有这个课题组，成功完成，现在任务是别的了。
虽然潜水多年，很少说话，但我希望你们记住：相信党，相信组织，哈哈！好东西这才是开头。等着吧！！
几年前我们就已经实验过了，kgw几年前有这个课题组，成功完成，现在任务是别的了。
虽然潜水多年，很少说话，但我希望你们记住：相信党，相信组织，哈哈！好东西这才是开头。等着吧！！
昨夜在梦中我听天顶星人说，马兰基地好;P :D :D :D 像就有一个团队在作这个;P ;P
外面的狗狗叫得越凶俺越高兴:D :D :D
这种话听着爽！！
记得以前看过一个科幻小说上面的描写:地球近地轨道被大量卫星碎片霸占,变成了地球的保护屏障........
这个世界已经不是老美所拟想的单级世界了。
:$ 2周年挖下坟,不过分吧?
天哪！竟然挖两年前的坟。。。。。。
挖坟党好凶猛。。。