Beating Uncle Sam at His Own Game 在山姆大叔自己的游 ...

译文简介
“华盛顿既不要战争，也不要和平。他们只要支配一切。如果可以通过不打战的方式支配一切——那很完美。如果不能，那就用战争来支配一切。就这么简单。”— 威廉·布拉姆，接受《今日俄罗斯》采访时说的话。
译文来源
原文地址：http://www.counterpunch.org
正文翻译
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comJUNE 08, 2015
The Skirmish in the Spratlys
Beating Uncle Sam at His Own Game
by MIKE WHITNEY

2015年六月8日
针对南沙群岛的小规模冲突
在山姆大叔自己的游戏里揍他
作者：麦克·惠特尼



"Washington is not looking for peace or war. They're looking for domination. If they can achieve domination peacefully – that's fine. If they can't, they'll use war. It's that simple."
— William Blum, Interview withRussia Today

"华盛顿既不要战争，也不要和平。他们只要支配一切。如果可以通过不打战的方式支配一切——那很完美。如果不能，那就用战争来支配一切。就这么简单。"
— 威廉·布拉姆，接受《今日俄罗斯》采访时说的话

"The U.S. is frantically surrounding China with military weapons, advanced aircraft, naval fleets and a multitude of military bases from Japan, South Korea and the Philippines through several nearby smaller Pacific islands to its new and enlarged base in Australia…. The U.S. naval fleet, aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines patrol China's nearby waters. Warplanes, surveillance planes, drones and spying satellites cover the skies, creating a symbolic darkness at noon."
— Jack A. Smith, "Hegemony Games: USA vs. PRC",CounterPunch

"美国用各种武器、高级飞机、海军舰队、并通过设立在日本、韩国和菲律宾的众多军事基地，还有在澳大利亚附近的几个较小的太平洋岛屿上新建扩建的军事基地，疯狂地包围中国……美国的海军舰队、航空母舰和核潜艇逡巡在中国附近的海域。军用机、侦察飞机、无人机还有间谍卫星覆盖着不同层次的中国领空。所有这一切就是在正中午制造象征性的黑暗。"
— 杰克·A·史密斯，《霸权游戏：美国对中华人民共和国》（"反击"网）

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There's no need to go over the details of China's land reclamation activities in the Spratly Islands since reasonable people can agree that Washington has no real interest in a few piles of sand heaped up on reefs 10,000 miles from the United States. The man-made islands pose no threat to US national security or to freedom of navigation. The Obama administration is merely using the Spratlys as a pretext to provoke, intimidate and harass Beijing. The Spratly's provide a justification for escalation, for building an anti-China coalition among US allies in the region, for demonizing China in the media, for taking steps to disrupt China's ambitious Silk Roads economic strategy, and for encircling China to the West with US warships that threaten China's access to critical shipping lanes and vital energy supplies. This is the ultimate objective; to bring China to its knees and to force it to comply with Washington's diktats. This is what Washington really wants.

因为有理智的人都同意华盛顿对那几个堆在珊瑚礁上的距离美国1万英里远的沙堆没有真正的兴趣，所以也就没有必要重温中国在南沙群岛开垦土地行为的细节了。那几个人造岛屿对美国国家安全或是航行自由没有显示出一点威胁。本届奥巴马政府只是将南沙群岛作为一个刺激、恐吓以及困扰北京的借口而已。南沙群岛不过为逐步升级下面这些行动提供 了一个理由：1）在该地区的美国盟友中建立一个反华同盟；2）在媒体上妖魔化中国；3）采取行动破坏中国对"丝路经济战略"的雄心；4）美国用军舰从中国西面包围中国，威胁中国对关键性航道的使用以及生死攸关的能源供给。而最终的目的就是让中国屈服，并强迫它服从华盛顿的绝对命令。这才是华盛顿的真实意图。

In a recent speech at the Shangri La Dialogue in Singapore, US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter said that "there is no military solution to the South China Sea disputes." Just moments later, and without a trace of irony, Carter rattled off a long list of military assets the Pentagon plans to deploy to the Asia-Pacific to shore up US offensive capability. The list includes "the latest Virginia-class [nuclear] submarines, the Navy's P-8 Poseidon surveillance aircraft, the newest stealth destroyer, the Zumwalt, and brand-new carrier-based E-2D Hawkeye early-warning-and-control aircraft." The Pentagon is also going to add "new unmanned systems for the air and sea, a new long-range bomber, (an) electromagnetic railgun, lasers, and new systems for space and cyberspace, including a few surprising ones."

美国国防部长卡特最近发表于新加坡"香格里拉对话"的演讲中提到"不会用军事手段解决南中国海争端。"仅仅不过一会儿，而且毫无一丝讽刺的意味，卡特急速地背诵出一长串五角大楼计划部署在亚太用于提升美国进攻能力的军事设施。该列表包括"最新的弗吉尼亚级别核潜艇，海军P8海神号监测飞机，最新的隐形驱逐舰朱姆沃尔特号，还有崭新的可从航母上起降的E-2D‘鹰眼'早期预警和控制飞机。"五角大楼还打算增添"新的用于海空的无人驾驶系统、一种新的长距离轰炸机、一种电磁磁轨炮、激光枪、还有为太空和网络空间准备的新系统、其中会有一些令人吃惊的东西。"

For someone who doesn't believe in a military solution, Carter is certainly adding a lot of lethal hardware to his arsenal. The question is: Why? Is Washington preparing for war?

对于那些不信赖军事解决手段的人，卡特确实为他的军火库增添了大量致死的硬件。那么问题来了：为什么？华盛顿准备开战了吗？

Probably not. The United States does not want a war with China. What Washington wants is to be the dominant player in this century's most promising and prosperous market, Asia. But China's meteoric growth has put Washington's plan at risk, which is why Obama is wheeling out the heavy artillery. The anti-China coalition, the China-excluding trade agreements (TPP) and the unprecedented military build up are all aimed at preserving Washington's dominant role without actually starting a war. The administration thinks that the show of force alone will precipitate a change in behavior. They think China will back down rather than face the awesome military power of the American empire. But will it? Here's another clip from Carter's speech at Shangri La:

可能没有。美国不想和中国打一仗。华盛顿想要的在亚洲，这个本世纪最具前途、最繁荣的市场里成为一个具有支配地位的玩家。但是中国令人眼花缭乱的成长已经将华盛顿的计划置于危险中，这就是为何奥巴马开出了他的重型炮兵部队的原因之所在。反华同盟、将中国排除在外的贸易协议（TPP）、还有史无前例的军事建设，所有这一切的目的就是不需要实际开战就能保住华盛顿的支配地位。国家管理层认为只要显示武力就能促进行动上的突然改变。他们认为中国将会退让而不是面对美帝国令人恐惧的军事力量。但是中国会退让吗？这儿是另一份卡特在香格里拉演讲的实录：

The United States will continue to protect freedom of navigation and overflight – principles that have ensured security and prosperity in this region for decades. There should be no mistake: the United States will fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows, as U.S. forces do all around the world.

美国将继续保护航行和飞跃领空的自由——秉持确保本地区数十年的安全和繁荣的原则。以下内容应该不得有错：即因为美国军事力量要在全球行动，所以无论哪里的国际法都要允许美国从领空、水域通过并进行所需的行动。

America, alongside its allies and partners in the regional architecture, will not be deterred from exercising these rights – the rights of all nations. After all, turning an underwater rock into an airfield simply does not afford the rights of sovereignty or permit restrictions on international air or maritime transit.

美国连同它在本地区架构内的盟友及小伙伴们将必须行使这些权利——这都是你们国家的权利。毕竟，把一块水下暗礁变成一个空军基地不仅仅提供了国家主权的权利，也默许对国际航空和海运的限制。

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US hegemony is also threatened by China's Sino-centric economic policy which author Robert Berke sums up in an article on Oil Price.com titled "New Silk Road Could Change Global Economics Forever". Here's an excerpt from the article:

美国的霸权地位也受到中国的以中国为中心的经济政策的威胁。罗伯特·贝克在他的一篇题为《新丝路能够永恒地挑战全球经济》并发表在Oil Price.com网站上的文章中这样总结过。下面是该文的摘要：

China is building the world's greatest economic development and construction project ever undertaken: The New Silk Road. The project aims at no less than a revolutionary change in the economic map of the world…The ambitious vision is to resurrect the ancient Silk Road as a modern transit, trade, and economic corridor that runs from Shanghai to Berlin. The ‘Road' will traverse China, Mongolia, Russia, Belarus, Poland, and Germany, extending more than 8,000 miles, creating an economic zone that extends over one third the circumference of the earth.

中国正在承诺构建世界上最大的经济发展和建设计划：新丝路。该计划的目标不亚于在世界经济地图上的出现一次革命性的改变……这种有雄心的愿望是为了复兴古代的"丝绸之路"，使其成为一种现代的从上海到柏林的物流、贸易和经济走廊。这条路将横穿中国、蒙古、俄罗斯、白俄罗斯和德国，全长超过8千英里。这条经济走廊将会在地球超过1/3的陆地范围内建立一个经济区域。

The plan envisions building high-speed railroads, roads and highways, energy transmission and distributions networks, and fiber optic networks. Cities and ports along the route will be targeted for economic development.

这个计划设想建立一条高速铁路、公路和高速公路、能源传输和分配网络、以及光纤网络。沿线的城市和港口的经济将会得到有效发展。

An equally essential part of the plan is a sea-based "Maritime Silk Road" (MSR) component, as ambitious as its land-based project, linking China with the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean Sea through Central Asia and the Indian Ocean. When completed, like the ancient Silk Road, it will connect three continents: Asia, Europe, and Africa. The chain of infrastructure projects will create the world's largest economic corridor, covering a population of 4.4 billion and an economic output of $21 trillion…

与这个计划相辅相成必不可少的是以大海为基础的"海上丝绸之路"（MSR）部分。这个"海上丝绸之路"与那个以陆路为基础的计划一样雄心勃勃，它通过中亚和印度洋，将中国与波斯湾以及地中海连接在一起。当它像古代的丝绸之路一样完成的时候，它将连接三块大陆：亚洲、欧洲和非洲。这条基础设施计划之链将会创造这个世界上最大的经济走廊，覆盖44亿的人口和21万亿美元的经济产值输出……

For the world at large, its decisions about the Road are nothing less than momentous. The massive project holds the potential for a new renaissance in commerce, industry, discovery, thought, invention, and culture that could well rival the original Silk Road. It is also becoming clearer by the day that geopolitical conflicts over the project could lead to a new cold war between East and West for dominance in Eurasia. The outcome is far from certain. ("New Silk Road Could Change Global Economics Forever", Robert Berke, Oil Price)

这个世界对这条"路"的若干决定无异于极其重要。与传统的丝绸之路相比，这个规模巨大的计划对商业、工业、发现、思想、发明创造和文化都持有一种潜在的复兴力量。而且总有那么一天，为了控制这个计划而产生的地缘政治冲突是能够导致一场东西方之间由谁来支配欧亚大陆的新冷战的。结局远不可料。（"新丝绸之路可以永恒地改变全球经济"，罗伯特·贝克，oilprice网站）

China is perfectly situated to take advantage of Asia's explosive growth. They've paid their dues, built up their infrastructure and industrial capability, and now they're in the catbird seat fully prepared to benefit from the fact that "Half of humanity will live in Asia by 2050″ and that "more than half of the global middle class and its accompanying consumption will come from that region." US corporations will be welcome to compete in these new markets, but they won't do nearly as well as businesses located in China. (This is why the Pentagon has been asked to intervene by powerful members of the corporate establishment.)

中国完美地处于利用亚洲的井喷一样的增长的位置之上。他们付出他们应该付出的钱，建立他们的基础设施和工业能力，现在他们就处在猫鹊的位置上，已经做好准备从"到2050年一半人类将居住在亚洲"以及"超过一半的全球中产阶级和他们的伴生消费品会出自这一地区"这两个事实中获利。人们欢迎美国的大财阀们为这些新兴市场竞争，但是他们不会和那些身处中国的公司做得一样好。（这就是为什么那些联合财阀的强有力的成员们要求五角大楼干涉的原因。）

Washington's gambit in the Spratly's is an attempt to reverse the tide, derail China's current trajectory and insert the US as the regional kingpin who writes the rules and picks the winners. As Sec-Def Carter said in an earlier speech at the McCain Institute in Arizona, "There are already more than 525 million middle class consumers in Asia, and there will be 3.2 billion in the region by 2030." US corporations want the lion's-share of those customers so they can peddle their widgets, goose their stock prices and pump up their quarterly profits. Carter's job is to help them achieve that objective.

华盛顿在南沙群岛的诡计就是尝试掀起大浪，让中国从它目前的轨道中脱轨出来，然后把美国作为一根该地区的中央木柱插进去，并由这根新插进来的中央木柱写规则挑选赢家。作为国防部长的卡特曾在亚利桑那州麦凯恩学院发表的演讲中说："亚洲已经有超过5.25亿中产阶级，到2030年会达到32亿。"美国的各大财阀们想像狮子一样分掉那些消费者，因此他们就可以到处兜售他们的小玩意、刺激他们的股票价格、给他们的季度利润打气。卡特的工作就是帮助他们达到目的。

Another threat to US global rule is the aforementioned Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). The danger of the AIIB is not simply that it will fund many of the infrastructure projects that will be needed to integrate Europe, Asia and Africa into one giant free trade zone, but that the bank will replace key US-backed financial institutions (The IMF and World Bank) which have helped maintain Washington's iron-grip on the global system. As that grip progressively loosens, there will be less need for cross-border transactions to be carried out in US dollars which, in turn, will threaten the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency. As author Bart Gruzalski notes in his excellent article at Counterpunch, "China and Russia are creating alternatives that threaten the dollar's status as the sole dominant international currency. By instituting trade alternatives to the dollar, they challenge the value of the dollar and so threaten the US economy." ("An Economic Reason for the US vs. China Conflict", Bart Gruzalski, CounterPunch)

另一个威胁美国制定的全球规则是前述的亚洲基础设施投资银行（AIIB）。AIIB的危险不仅仅在于它会为大量基础设施项目（这些基础设施会把欧洲、亚洲和非洲整合成一个巨大的贸易区）投资，还会取代美国支持的关键性的金融机构（IMF和世界银行）。这些金融机构已经帮助华盛顿用铁腕控制全球系统。随着这个铁腕逐渐松下来，跨区域交易对美元的需求就会越来越少，这样就会威胁美元作为世界储备货币的角色。而巴特·格鲁扎尔斯基在他为"反击网"撰写的及其优秀的文章中指出："中俄正在建立可替换货币，这会威胁到美元作为唯一支配性的国际货币的地位。依靠制定替换美元的交易货币，他们挑战了美元的价值，同样也就威胁到了美国的经济。"（《美中冲突的经济原因》，巴特·格鲁扎尔斯基，"反击网站"）

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers offered a particularly bleak assessment of the AIIB flap in an editorial that appeared in April in the Washington Post. He said:

前财长拉里·萨姆斯在今年四月的《华盛顿邮报》上发表社论，提供了一个前景很暗淡的估计：

This past month may be remembered as the moment the United States lost its role as the underwriter of the global economic system. True, there have been any number of periods of frustration for the United States before and multiple times when U.S. behavior was hardly multilateralist, such as the 1971 Nixon shock ending the convertibility of the dollar into gold. But I can think of no event since Bretton Woods comparable to the combination of China's effort to establish a major new institution and the failure of the United States to persuade dozens of its traditional allies, starting with Britain, to stay out. (Washington Post)

过去一个月可能被我们记住的一个原因是因为美国失去了它的全球经济系统担保人的角色。这是真的，之前美国也经历了许多挫折时期，而且有许多次美国的态度都几乎不是多边的，比如1971年尼克松震撼性地结束了美元对黄金的自由兑换。但是自从布雷顿森林体系以来，我想不出还有什么事件比得上联合中国努力去建立一个新的主导机构，而美国的几十个传统盟友竟然不听劝，从英国开始，都纷纷加入。（《华盛顿邮报》）

Summers goes on to acknowledge the threat that political dysfunction (on Capitol Hill) poses to "the dollar's primary role in the international system". It's clear that Summers grasps the gravity of what has unfolded and the challenge the AIIB poses to US hegemony. Readers should note that Summers ominous warnings were delivered just months before Washington dramatically revamped its China policy which suggests that the announcement of the AIIB was the straw that broke the camel's back. Shortly after, the Obama administration made "crucial changes" to the existing policy. Containment and integration were replaced with the current policy of intimidation, incitement and confrontation. Beijing was elevated to Public Enemy Number 1, America's primary strategic rival.

萨姆斯继续承认这个威胁让国会山的政治功能失调，甚至指出它威胁到"美元在国际系统的主导地位"。萨姆斯明显抓住了已经展现出来的东西的严重性，还有AIIB对美国霸权展现出来的挑战。读者诸君应该注意到就在华盛顿戏剧性地修改对中国政策不过数月，萨姆斯就发出了几个不祥的警告，可以说AIIB就是压垮美国这匹骆驼的最后那根稻草。很快，奥巴马政府就现存策略进行"至关重要的调整"。控制和整合被目前的恐吓、刺激和对抗政策所取代。北京被上升到了第一位公共敌人的地位，成了美国主要的战略敌手。

What happens next, should be fairly obvious to anyone who has followed US meddling in recent years. The US is now at war with China, which means that it will use all of its resources and capabilities, except it's military assets, to defeat the enemy. The United States will not militarily engage an enemy that can fight back or inflict pain on the US. That's the cardinal rule of US military policy. While that precludes a nuclear conflagration, it does not exclude a hyperbolic propaganda campaign demonizing China and its leaders in the media (Sadly, the comparisons to Hitler and the Kaiser have already started), asymmetrical attacks on Chinese markets and currency, excruciating economic sanctions, US-NGO funding for Chinese dissidents, foreign agents and fifth columnists, intrusions into China's territorial waters and airspace, strategic denial of critical energy supplies, (80 percent of China's oil supplies are delivered via the Malacca Strait to the South China Sea) and, finally, covert support for "moderate" jihadis who are committed to toppling the Chinese government and replacing it with an Islamic Caliphate. All of these means and proxies will be employed to defeat Beijing, to derail its ambitious Silk Roads strategy, to curtail its explosive growth, and to sabotage its plan to be the preeminent power in Asia.

在今后几年中，下一步会发生什么，我想答案对任何一个一直在关注美国是如何一路"乱翻"他国的人而言显而易见。美国现在处在对中国的战争状态，这就意味着它会用尽它所有的资源和能力（除了军事设施）击败它的敌人。美国绝不会对一个可以反击或是把痛苦返还给美国的敌人动用军事力量。这是美国用兵的主要准则。杜绝核灾难的同时，美国不会排除在媒体中使用"夸张宣传运动"妖魔化中国和中国领导人（令人感到难过的是与德国皇帝希特勒相比，美国并非玩弄这种手段的开山鼻祖），美国还会对中国市场和货币展开不对称进攻，对中国施加最残酷的经济制裁，美国的非政府组织会大力支持中国持不同政见者、外国特务和第五纵队（间谍），美国还会侵扰中国国土的水域及空域，美国会从战略角度拒绝对中国提供关键性的能源，（80%的中国石油供应是通过南中国海的马六甲海峡），还有最后一点，美国会偷偷摸摸支持"温和的"伊斯兰教圣战分子执行颠覆中国政府的任务，然后用伊斯兰教的哈里发帝国取代中国政府（OMG！）。所有这些手段和那些代理人们将被用来（雇佣）去打败北京，让雄心勃勃的丝路战略出轨翻车，削减中国爆炸式的增长，并蓄意破坏中国成为亚洲一支杰出力量的计划。

Washington has thrown down the gauntlet in the South China Sea. If Beijing wants to preserve its independence and surpass the US as the world's biggest economy, it's going to have to meet the challenge, prepare for a long struggle, and beat Uncle Sam at his own game.

华盛顿已经在南中国海扔下了它的那只代表决斗的金属手套。如果北京想要捍卫自己的独立，并作为这个世界上最大的经济体超越美国，那么北京就必须面对这个挑战，准备长期斗争，然后在山姆大叔自己的决斗游戏中打败他。

It won't be easy, but it can be done.

这不容易，但是可以办到。译文简介
“华盛顿既不要战争，也不要和平。他们只要支配一切。如果可以通过不打战的方式支配一切——那很完美。如果不能，那就用战争来支配一切。就这么简单。”— 威廉·布拉姆，接受《今日俄罗斯》采访时说的话。
译文来源
原文地址：http://www.counterpunch.org
正文翻译
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com 翻译：seeEsmee 转载请注明出处
论坛地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-349974-1-1.html



comJUNE 08, 2015
The Skirmish in the Spratlys
Beating Uncle Sam at His Own Game
by MIKE WHITNEY

2015年六月8日
针对南沙群岛的小规模冲突
在山姆大叔自己的游戏里揍他
作者：麦克·惠特尼



"Washington is not looking for peace or war. They're looking for domination. If they can achieve domination peacefully – that's fine. If they can't, they'll use war. It's that simple."
— William Blum, Interview withRussia Today

"华盛顿既不要战争，也不要和平。他们只要支配一切。如果可以通过不打战的方式支配一切——那很完美。如果不能，那就用战争来支配一切。就这么简单。"
— 威廉·布拉姆，接受《今日俄罗斯》采访时说的话

"The U.S. is frantically surrounding China with military weapons, advanced aircraft, naval fleets and a multitude of military bases from Japan, South Korea and the Philippines through several nearby smaller Pacific islands to its new and enlarged base in Australia…. The U.S. naval fleet, aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines patrol China's nearby waters. Warplanes, surveillance planes, drones and spying satellites cover the skies, creating a symbolic darkness at noon."
— Jack A. Smith, "Hegemony Games: USA vs. PRC",CounterPunch

"美国用各种武器、高级飞机、海军舰队、并通过设立在日本、韩国和菲律宾的众多军事基地，还有在澳大利亚附近的几个较小的太平洋岛屿上新建扩建的军事基地，疯狂地包围中国……美国的海军舰队、航空母舰和核潜艇逡巡在中国附近的海域。军用机、侦察飞机、无人机还有间谍卫星覆盖着不同层次的中国领空。所有这一切就是在正中午制造象征性的黑暗。"
— 杰克·A·史密斯，《霸权游戏：美国对中华人民共和国》（"反击"网）

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There's no need to go over the details of China's land reclamation activities in the Spratly Islands since reasonable people can agree that Washington has no real interest in a few piles of sand heaped up on reefs 10,000 miles from the United States. The man-made islands pose no threat to US national security or to freedom of navigation. The Obama administration is merely using the Spratlys as a pretext to provoke, intimidate and harass Beijing. The Spratly's provide a justification for escalation, for building an anti-China coalition among US allies in the region, for demonizing China in the media, for taking steps to disrupt China's ambitious Silk Roads economic strategy, and for encircling China to the West with US warships that threaten China's access to critical shipping lanes and vital energy supplies. This is the ultimate objective; to bring China to its knees and to force it to comply with Washington's diktats. This is what Washington really wants.

因为有理智的人都同意华盛顿对那几个堆在珊瑚礁上的距离美国1万英里远的沙堆没有真正的兴趣，所以也就没有必要重温中国在南沙群岛开垦土地行为的细节了。那几个人造岛屿对美国国家安全或是航行自由没有显示出一点威胁。本届奥巴马政府只是将南沙群岛作为一个刺激、恐吓以及困扰北京的借口而已。南沙群岛不过为逐步升级下面这些行动提供 了一个理由：1）在该地区的美国盟友中建立一个反华同盟；2）在媒体上妖魔化中国；3）采取行动破坏中国对"丝路经济战略"的雄心；4）美国用军舰从中国西面包围中国，威胁中国对关键性航道的使用以及生死攸关的能源供给。而最终的目的就是让中国屈服，并强迫它服从华盛顿的绝对命令。这才是华盛顿的真实意图。

In a recent speech at the Shangri La Dialogue in Singapore, US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter said that "there is no military solution to the South China Sea disputes." Just moments later, and without a trace of irony, Carter rattled off a long list of military assets the Pentagon plans to deploy to the Asia-Pacific to shore up US offensive capability. The list includes "the latest Virginia-class [nuclear] submarines, the Navy's P-8 Poseidon surveillance aircraft, the newest stealth destroyer, the Zumwalt, and brand-new carrier-based E-2D Hawkeye early-warning-and-control aircraft." The Pentagon is also going to add "new unmanned systems for the air and sea, a new long-range bomber, (an) electromagnetic railgun, lasers, and new systems for space and cyberspace, including a few surprising ones."

美国国防部长卡特最近发表于新加坡"香格里拉对话"的演讲中提到"不会用军事手段解决南中国海争端。"仅仅不过一会儿，而且毫无一丝讽刺的意味，卡特急速地背诵出一长串五角大楼计划部署在亚太用于提升美国进攻能力的军事设施。该列表包括"最新的弗吉尼亚级别核潜艇，海军P8海神号监测飞机，最新的隐形驱逐舰朱姆沃尔特号，还有崭新的可从航母上起降的E-2D‘鹰眼'早期预警和控制飞机。"五角大楼还打算增添"新的用于海空的无人驾驶系统、一种新的长距离轰炸机、一种电磁磁轨炮、激光枪、还有为太空和网络空间准备的新系统、其中会有一些令人吃惊的东西。"

For someone who doesn't believe in a military solution, Carter is certainly adding a lot of lethal hardware to his arsenal. The question is: Why? Is Washington preparing for war?

对于那些不信赖军事解决手段的人，卡特确实为他的军火库增添了大量致死的硬件。那么问题来了：为什么？华盛顿准备开战了吗？

Probably not. The United States does not want a war with China. What Washington wants is to be the dominant player in this century's most promising and prosperous market, Asia. But China's meteoric growth has put Washington's plan at risk, which is why Obama is wheeling out the heavy artillery. The anti-China coalition, the China-excluding trade agreements (TPP) and the unprecedented military build up are all aimed at preserving Washington's dominant role without actually starting a war. The administration thinks that the show of force alone will precipitate a change in behavior. They think China will back down rather than face the awesome military power of the American empire. But will it? Here's another clip from Carter's speech at Shangri La:

可能没有。美国不想和中国打一仗。华盛顿想要的在亚洲，这个本世纪最具前途、最繁荣的市场里成为一个具有支配地位的玩家。但是中国令人眼花缭乱的成长已经将华盛顿的计划置于危险中，这就是为何奥巴马开出了他的重型炮兵部队的原因之所在。反华同盟、将中国排除在外的贸易协议（TPP）、还有史无前例的军事建设，所有这一切的目的就是不需要实际开战就能保住华盛顿的支配地位。国家管理层认为只要显示武力就能促进行动上的突然改变。他们认为中国将会退让而不是面对美帝国令人恐惧的军事力量。但是中国会退让吗？这儿是另一份卡特在香格里拉演讲的实录：

The United States will continue to protect freedom of navigation and overflight – principles that have ensured security and prosperity in this region for decades. There should be no mistake: the United States will fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows, as U.S. forces do all around the world.

美国将继续保护航行和飞跃领空的自由——秉持确保本地区数十年的安全和繁荣的原则。以下内容应该不得有错：即因为美国军事力量要在全球行动，所以无论哪里的国际法都要允许美国从领空、水域通过并进行所需的行动。

America, alongside its allies and partners in the regional architecture, will not be deterred from exercising these rights – the rights of all nations. After all, turning an underwater rock into an airfield simply does not afford the rights of sovereignty or permit restrictions on international air or maritime transit.

美国连同它在本地区架构内的盟友及小伙伴们将必须行使这些权利——这都是你们国家的权利。毕竟，把一块水下暗礁变成一个空军基地不仅仅提供了国家主权的权利，也默许对国际航空和海运的限制。

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US hegemony is also threatened by China's Sino-centric economic policy which author Robert Berke sums up in an article on Oil Price.com titled "New Silk Road Could Change Global Economics Forever". Here's an excerpt from the article:

美国的霸权地位也受到中国的以中国为中心的经济政策的威胁。罗伯特·贝克在他的一篇题为《新丝路能够永恒地挑战全球经济》并发表在Oil Price.com网站上的文章中这样总结过。下面是该文的摘要：

China is building the world's greatest economic development and construction project ever undertaken: The New Silk Road. The project aims at no less than a revolutionary change in the economic map of the world…The ambitious vision is to resurrect the ancient Silk Road as a modern transit, trade, and economic corridor that runs from Shanghai to Berlin. The ‘Road' will traverse China, Mongolia, Russia, Belarus, Poland, and Germany, extending more than 8,000 miles, creating an economic zone that extends over one third the circumference of the earth.

中国正在承诺构建世界上最大的经济发展和建设计划：新丝路。该计划的目标不亚于在世界经济地图上的出现一次革命性的改变……这种有雄心的愿望是为了复兴古代的"丝绸之路"，使其成为一种现代的从上海到柏林的物流、贸易和经济走廊。这条路将横穿中国、蒙古、俄罗斯、白俄罗斯和德国，全长超过8千英里。这条经济走廊将会在地球超过1/3的陆地范围内建立一个经济区域。

The plan envisions building high-speed railroads, roads and highways, energy transmission and distributions networks, and fiber optic networks. Cities and ports along the route will be targeted for economic development.

这个计划设想建立一条高速铁路、公路和高速公路、能源传输和分配网络、以及光纤网络。沿线的城市和港口的经济将会得到有效发展。

An equally essential part of the plan is a sea-based "Maritime Silk Road" (MSR) component, as ambitious as its land-based project, linking China with the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean Sea through Central Asia and the Indian Ocean. When completed, like the ancient Silk Road, it will connect three continents: Asia, Europe, and Africa. The chain of infrastructure projects will create the world's largest economic corridor, covering a population of 4.4 billion and an economic output of $21 trillion…

与这个计划相辅相成必不可少的是以大海为基础的"海上丝绸之路"（MSR）部分。这个"海上丝绸之路"与那个以陆路为基础的计划一样雄心勃勃，它通过中亚和印度洋，将中国与波斯湾以及地中海连接在一起。当它像古代的丝绸之路一样完成的时候，它将连接三块大陆：亚洲、欧洲和非洲。这条基础设施计划之链将会创造这个世界上最大的经济走廊，覆盖44亿的人口和21万亿美元的经济产值输出……

For the world at large, its decisions about the Road are nothing less than momentous. The massive project holds the potential for a new renaissance in commerce, industry, discovery, thought, invention, and culture that could well rival the original Silk Road. It is also becoming clearer by the day that geopolitical conflicts over the project could lead to a new cold war between East and West for dominance in Eurasia. The outcome is far from certain. ("New Silk Road Could Change Global Economics Forever", Robert Berke, Oil Price)

这个世界对这条"路"的若干决定无异于极其重要。与传统的丝绸之路相比，这个规模巨大的计划对商业、工业、发现、思想、发明创造和文化都持有一种潜在的复兴力量。而且总有那么一天，为了控制这个计划而产生的地缘政治冲突是能够导致一场东西方之间由谁来支配欧亚大陆的新冷战的。结局远不可料。（"新丝绸之路可以永恒地改变全球经济"，罗伯特·贝克，oilprice网站）

China is perfectly situated to take advantage of Asia's explosive growth. They've paid their dues, built up their infrastructure and industrial capability, and now they're in the catbird seat fully prepared to benefit from the fact that "Half of humanity will live in Asia by 2050″ and that "more than half of the global middle class and its accompanying consumption will come from that region." US corporations will be welcome to compete in these new markets, but they won't do nearly as well as businesses located in China. (This is why the Pentagon has been asked to intervene by powerful members of the corporate establishment.)

中国完美地处于利用亚洲的井喷一样的增长的位置之上。他们付出他们应该付出的钱，建立他们的基础设施和工业能力，现在他们就处在猫鹊的位置上，已经做好准备从"到2050年一半人类将居住在亚洲"以及"超过一半的全球中产阶级和他们的伴生消费品会出自这一地区"这两个事实中获利。人们欢迎美国的大财阀们为这些新兴市场竞争，但是他们不会和那些身处中国的公司做得一样好。（这就是为什么那些联合财阀的强有力的成员们要求五角大楼干涉的原因。）

Washington's gambit in the Spratly's is an attempt to reverse the tide, derail China's current trajectory and insert the US as the regional kingpin who writes the rules and picks the winners. As Sec-Def Carter said in an earlier speech at the McCain Institute in Arizona, "There are already more than 525 million middle class consumers in Asia, and there will be 3.2 billion in the region by 2030." US corporations want the lion's-share of those customers so they can peddle their widgets, goose their stock prices and pump up their quarterly profits. Carter's job is to help them achieve that objective.

华盛顿在南沙群岛的诡计就是尝试掀起大浪，让中国从它目前的轨道中脱轨出来，然后把美国作为一根该地区的中央木柱插进去，并由这根新插进来的中央木柱写规则挑选赢家。作为国防部长的卡特曾在亚利桑那州麦凯恩学院发表的演讲中说："亚洲已经有超过5.25亿中产阶级，到2030年会达到32亿。"美国的各大财阀们想像狮子一样分掉那些消费者，因此他们就可以到处兜售他们的小玩意、刺激他们的股票价格、给他们的季度利润打气。卡特的工作就是帮助他们达到目的。

Another threat to US global rule is the aforementioned Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). The danger of the AIIB is not simply that it will fund many of the infrastructure projects that will be needed to integrate Europe, Asia and Africa into one giant free trade zone, but that the bank will replace key US-backed financial institutions (The IMF and World Bank) which have helped maintain Washington's iron-grip on the global system. As that grip progressively loosens, there will be less need for cross-border transactions to be carried out in US dollars which, in turn, will threaten the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency. As author Bart Gruzalski notes in his excellent article at Counterpunch, "China and Russia are creating alternatives that threaten the dollar's status as the sole dominant international currency. By instituting trade alternatives to the dollar, they challenge the value of the dollar and so threaten the US economy." ("An Economic Reason for the US vs. China Conflict", Bart Gruzalski, CounterPunch)

另一个威胁美国制定的全球规则是前述的亚洲基础设施投资银行（AIIB）。AIIB的危险不仅仅在于它会为大量基础设施项目（这些基础设施会把欧洲、亚洲和非洲整合成一个巨大的贸易区）投资，还会取代美国支持的关键性的金融机构（IMF和世界银行）。这些金融机构已经帮助华盛顿用铁腕控制全球系统。随着这个铁腕逐渐松下来，跨区域交易对美元的需求就会越来越少，这样就会威胁美元作为世界储备货币的角色。而巴特·格鲁扎尔斯基在他为"反击网"撰写的及其优秀的文章中指出："中俄正在建立可替换货币，这会威胁到美元作为唯一支配性的国际货币的地位。依靠制定替换美元的交易货币，他们挑战了美元的价值，同样也就威胁到了美国的经济。"（《美中冲突的经济原因》，巴特·格鲁扎尔斯基，"反击网站"）

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers offered a particularly bleak assessment of the AIIB flap in an editorial that appeared in April in the Washington Post. He said:

前财长拉里·萨姆斯在今年四月的《华盛顿邮报》上发表社论，提供了一个前景很暗淡的估计：

This past month may be remembered as the moment the United States lost its role as the underwriter of the global economic system. True, there have been any number of periods of frustration for the United States before and multiple times when U.S. behavior was hardly multilateralist, such as the 1971 Nixon shock ending the convertibility of the dollar into gold. But I can think of no event since Bretton Woods comparable to the combination of China's effort to establish a major new institution and the failure of the United States to persuade dozens of its traditional allies, starting with Britain, to stay out. (Washington Post)

过去一个月可能被我们记住的一个原因是因为美国失去了它的全球经济系统担保人的角色。这是真的，之前美国也经历了许多挫折时期，而且有许多次美国的态度都几乎不是多边的，比如1971年尼克松震撼性地结束了美元对黄金的自由兑换。但是自从布雷顿森林体系以来，我想不出还有什么事件比得上联合中国努力去建立一个新的主导机构，而美国的几十个传统盟友竟然不听劝，从英国开始，都纷纷加入。（《华盛顿邮报》）

Summers goes on to acknowledge the threat that political dysfunction (on Capitol Hill) poses to "the dollar's primary role in the international system". It's clear that Summers grasps the gravity of what has unfolded and the challenge the AIIB poses to US hegemony. Readers should note that Summers ominous warnings were delivered just months before Washington dramatically revamped its China policy which suggests that the announcement of the AIIB was the straw that broke the camel's back. Shortly after, the Obama administration made "crucial changes" to the existing policy. Containment and integration were replaced with the current policy of intimidation, incitement and confrontation. Beijing was elevated to Public Enemy Number 1, America's primary strategic rival.

萨姆斯继续承认这个威胁让国会山的政治功能失调，甚至指出它威胁到"美元在国际系统的主导地位"。萨姆斯明显抓住了已经展现出来的东西的严重性，还有AIIB对美国霸权展现出来的挑战。读者诸君应该注意到就在华盛顿戏剧性地修改对中国政策不过数月，萨姆斯就发出了几个不祥的警告，可以说AIIB就是压垮美国这匹骆驼的最后那根稻草。很快，奥巴马政府就现存策略进行"至关重要的调整"。控制和整合被目前的恐吓、刺激和对抗政策所取代。北京被上升到了第一位公共敌人的地位，成了美国主要的战略敌手。

What happens next, should be fairly obvious to anyone who has followed US meddling in recent years. The US is now at war with China, which means that it will use all of its resources and capabilities, except it's military assets, to defeat the enemy. The United States will not militarily engage an enemy that can fight back or inflict pain on the US. That's the cardinal rule of US military policy. While that precludes a nuclear conflagration, it does not exclude a hyperbolic propaganda campaign demonizing China and its leaders in the media (Sadly, the comparisons to Hitler and the Kaiser have already started), asymmetrical attacks on Chinese markets and currency, excruciating economic sanctions, US-NGO funding for Chinese dissidents, foreign agents and fifth columnists, intrusions into China's territorial waters and airspace, strategic denial of critical energy supplies, (80 percent of China's oil supplies are delivered via the Malacca Strait to the South China Sea) and, finally, covert support for "moderate" jihadis who are committed to toppling the Chinese government and replacing it with an Islamic Caliphate. All of these means and proxies will be employed to defeat Beijing, to derail its ambitious Silk Roads strategy, to curtail its explosive growth, and to sabotage its plan to be the preeminent power in Asia.

在今后几年中，下一步会发生什么，我想答案对任何一个一直在关注美国是如何一路"乱翻"他国的人而言显而易见。美国现在处在对中国的战争状态，这就意味着它会用尽它所有的资源和能力（除了军事设施）击败它的敌人。美国绝不会对一个可以反击或是把痛苦返还给美国的敌人动用军事力量。这是美国用兵的主要准则。杜绝核灾难的同时，美国不会排除在媒体中使用"夸张宣传运动"妖魔化中国和中国领导人（令人感到难过的是与德国皇帝希特勒相比，美国并非玩弄这种手段的开山鼻祖），美国还会对中国市场和货币展开不对称进攻，对中国施加最残酷的经济制裁，美国的非政府组织会大力支持中国持不同政见者、外国特务和第五纵队（间谍），美国还会侵扰中国国土的水域及空域，美国会从战略角度拒绝对中国提供关键性的能源，（80%的中国石油供应是通过南中国海的马六甲海峡），还有最后一点，美国会偷偷摸摸支持"温和的"伊斯兰教圣战分子执行颠覆中国政府的任务，然后用伊斯兰教的哈里发帝国取代中国政府（OMG！）。所有这些手段和那些代理人们将被用来（雇佣）去打败北京，让雄心勃勃的丝路战略出轨翻车，削减中国爆炸式的增长，并蓄意破坏中国成为亚洲一支杰出力量的计划。

Washington has thrown down the gauntlet in the South China Sea. If Beijing wants to preserve its independence and surpass the US as the world's biggest economy, it's going to have to meet the challenge, prepare for a long struggle, and beat Uncle Sam at his own game.

华盛顿已经在南中国海扔下了它的那只代表决斗的金属手套。如果北京想要捍卫自己的独立，并作为这个世界上最大的经济体超越美国，那么北京就必须面对这个挑战，准备长期斗争，然后在山姆大叔自己的决斗游戏中打败他。

It won't be easy, but it can be done.

这不容易，但是可以办到。