超级军网華郵刊出美商文章 指美國政府玩不過中國
来源：百度文库 编辑：超级军网 时间：2024/04/28 05:54:05
（中央社記者林文集華盛頓三十一日專電）
華盛頓郵報今天刊出中國美商商會前會長麥健陸（James McGregor）的文章，指美國政府對中國了解太少，玩不過中國政府，他呼籲美國政黨和行政部門內部停止在中國政策上內鬥，因為這只會讓中國從中獲利。
他並建議美國不要再向中國鼓吹立即實施民主，對中國科技出口和中國公司購併美國公司等問題採取開放的態度。
麥健陸已在北京待了十五年，曾任華爾街日報駐台北和駐北京記者，後來從商擔任美國道瓊公司中國分公司執行長，期間曾任中國美國商會會長，幾年前自行創業，在北京做生意。最近他寫了一本書，書名為「十億顧客：在中國做生意學到的教訓」。
他今天在華盛頓郵報發表文章指出，中國政府了解美國的程度遠超過美國政府對中國的了解，因此，中國政府處理美國問題遠比美國處理中國問題高明。中國的領導階層、外交官和官僚體系看待美國有明確的架構，對美國的政策制定和執行有重點且很一致。相對的，美國政府看中國沒有重點、內部各持不同看法，且通常缺乏充份的資訊，白宮、國會、國防部內部對中國都有各種不同看法，加上不妥協的內部政治文化，使美國幾乎不可能制定出協調一致的中國政策。
他表示，自古以來中國外交政策的核心是以夷制夷，挑動蕃人自相互鬥，所以美國國會代表團在人民大會堂會晤中國官員時，不同立場的美國議員當面互相叫罵，讓中國人很高興。
他表示，中國政府官員和企業主管對美國既敬畏又覺得可憐。中國人仰慕美國的企業文化、自由市場、司法體系和研發能力，害怕美國的高科技軍事機器，但他們相信美國正走向衰敗而覺得可憐。
他表示，中國官員和企業主管心裡只想一件事，就是「跟你比我有什麼優勢」？因此對於中國購買美國公債支應美國預算赤字的數字越來越高，中國官員覺得很高興，他們知道中國只要一次不參加美國公債標售會，美國股市就會暴跌；他們也知道如何利用北韓情勢來促進自己的利益，因為布希政府被伊拉克戰爭拖住，需要中國協助處理北韓問題。
但他也指出，中國也沒自己裝出來的那麼強大，甚至還差很遠。中國內部有很大的問題，包括環境污染、貧富差距、貪污腐敗等。中國除了想要變有錢之外，沒有別的意識形態，心靈無所託付。到目前為止因為經濟快速成長、生活改善和政治壓制，情況還能夠控制，但共產黨領導人知道，需要有不同的辦法才能獲得長遠的成功。
麥健陸表示，他了解美國對中國真的有安全方面的憂慮，但不應將這方面的憂慮擴大到破壞美國經濟安全的程度。美國的國內政治問題不應擴散到境外，美國不同政黨之間和行政部門不同派系之間在中國政策上的鬥爭，只會反而使中國從中得利。從美國的觀點看來，中國全面性的商業主義似顯示，這個國家會想盡辦法從美國身上獲利，但美國內部在就中國政策惡鬥時，忽略掉的是中國和美國的歧異是可以處理的，也忽略掉兩國有很多互補之處。如果美國採取聰明且有一致性的中國政策，將可同時協助中國，也幫助美國本身。
他主張，除非中國要收購的美國公司擁有真正先進的軍事科技，否則中國的公司要購併美國的公司就讓他們購併，但美國應以此作為籌碼，同樣美國公司可收購中國公司。例如中海油想要收購優尼科石油公司的問題，美國不應予以排斥，而應利用這種機會要求中國開放加油站投資，並改善外國石油在探勘和開採方面的投資條件。
他表示，美國應採取可行的科技出口政策。中國想要任何商業科技，幾乎都可以從日本、以色列、俄羅斯或歐盟取得。美國對科技出口的管制使美國工具機和半導體生產設備製造商落在後面，如果這種情況持續下去，只會削弱美國科技業者及其研發能力，進而危及美國本身的國家安全。他也主張美國將重點放在智慧財產權的保護上面，長期而言對中國及其貿易伙伴都有利。
他也建議，不要再向中國鼓吹立即實施民主。天安門事件後，中國民眾的訊息是，美國要中國民主化，是因為美國要中國陷入混亂，讓中國繼續窮下去，這樣美國才能維持富裕。就算是對政府有所不滿的中國人，也相信經歷兩千年由上而下統治的國家，只能慢慢的推動多元化。美國可協助中國推動政治多元化的地方是，協助中國加強司法體系和法治，並且大量提供簽證讓中國人可到美國的大學讀書和參加公共政策討論會。（中央社記者林文集華盛頓三十一日專電）
華盛頓郵報今天刊出中國美商商會前會長麥健陸（James McGregor）的文章，指美國政府對中國了解太少，玩不過中國政府，他呼籲美國政黨和行政部門內部停止在中國政策上內鬥，因為這只會讓中國從中獲利。
他並建議美國不要再向中國鼓吹立即實施民主，對中國科技出口和中國公司購併美國公司等問題採取開放的態度。
麥健陸已在北京待了十五年，曾任華爾街日報駐台北和駐北京記者，後來從商擔任美國道瓊公司中國分公司執行長，期間曾任中國美國商會會長，幾年前自行創業，在北京做生意。最近他寫了一本書，書名為「十億顧客：在中國做生意學到的教訓」。
他今天在華盛頓郵報發表文章指出，中國政府了解美國的程度遠超過美國政府對中國的了解，因此，中國政府處理美國問題遠比美國處理中國問題高明。中國的領導階層、外交官和官僚體系看待美國有明確的架構，對美國的政策制定和執行有重點且很一致。相對的，美國政府看中國沒有重點、內部各持不同看法，且通常缺乏充份的資訊，白宮、國會、國防部內部對中國都有各種不同看法，加上不妥協的內部政治文化，使美國幾乎不可能制定出協調一致的中國政策。
他表示，自古以來中國外交政策的核心是以夷制夷，挑動蕃人自相互鬥，所以美國國會代表團在人民大會堂會晤中國官員時，不同立場的美國議員當面互相叫罵，讓中國人很高興。
他表示，中國政府官員和企業主管對美國既敬畏又覺得可憐。中國人仰慕美國的企業文化、自由市場、司法體系和研發能力，害怕美國的高科技軍事機器，但他們相信美國正走向衰敗而覺得可憐。
他表示，中國官員和企業主管心裡只想一件事，就是「跟你比我有什麼優勢」？因此對於中國購買美國公債支應美國預算赤字的數字越來越高，中國官員覺得很高興，他們知道中國只要一次不參加美國公債標售會，美國股市就會暴跌；他們也知道如何利用北韓情勢來促進自己的利益，因為布希政府被伊拉克戰爭拖住，需要中國協助處理北韓問題。
但他也指出，中國也沒自己裝出來的那麼強大，甚至還差很遠。中國內部有很大的問題，包括環境污染、貧富差距、貪污腐敗等。中國除了想要變有錢之外，沒有別的意識形態，心靈無所託付。到目前為止因為經濟快速成長、生活改善和政治壓制，情況還能夠控制，但共產黨領導人知道，需要有不同的辦法才能獲得長遠的成功。
麥健陸表示，他了解美國對中國真的有安全方面的憂慮，但不應將這方面的憂慮擴大到破壞美國經濟安全的程度。美國的國內政治問題不應擴散到境外，美國不同政黨之間和行政部門不同派系之間在中國政策上的鬥爭，只會反而使中國從中得利。從美國的觀點看來，中國全面性的商業主義似顯示，這個國家會想盡辦法從美國身上獲利，但美國內部在就中國政策惡鬥時，忽略掉的是中國和美國的歧異是可以處理的，也忽略掉兩國有很多互補之處。如果美國採取聰明且有一致性的中國政策，將可同時協助中國，也幫助美國本身。
他主張，除非中國要收購的美國公司擁有真正先進的軍事科技，否則中國的公司要購併美國的公司就讓他們購併，但美國應以此作為籌碼，同樣美國公司可收購中國公司。例如中海油想要收購優尼科石油公司的問題，美國不應予以排斥，而應利用這種機會要求中國開放加油站投資，並改善外國石油在探勘和開採方面的投資條件。
他表示，美國應採取可行的科技出口政策。中國想要任何商業科技，幾乎都可以從日本、以色列、俄羅斯或歐盟取得。美國對科技出口的管制使美國工具機和半導體生產設備製造商落在後面，如果這種情況持續下去，只會削弱美國科技業者及其研發能力，進而危及美國本身的國家安全。他也主張美國將重點放在智慧財產權的保護上面，長期而言對中國及其貿易伙伴都有利。
他也建議，不要再向中國鼓吹立即實施民主。天安門事件後，中國民眾的訊息是，美國要中國民主化，是因為美國要中國陷入混亂，讓中國繼續窮下去，這樣美國才能維持富裕。就算是對政府有所不滿的中國人，也相信經歷兩千年由上而下統治的國家，只能慢慢的推動多元化。美國可協助中國推動政治多元化的地方是，協助中國加強司法體系和法治，並且大量提供簽證讓中國人可到美國的大學讀書和參加公共政策討論會。
華盛頓郵報今天刊出中國美商商會前會長麥健陸（James McGregor）的文章，指美國政府對中國了解太少，玩不過中國政府，他呼籲美國政黨和行政部門內部停止在中國政策上內鬥，因為這只會讓中國從中獲利。
他並建議美國不要再向中國鼓吹立即實施民主，對中國科技出口和中國公司購併美國公司等問題採取開放的態度。
麥健陸已在北京待了十五年，曾任華爾街日報駐台北和駐北京記者，後來從商擔任美國道瓊公司中國分公司執行長，期間曾任中國美國商會會長，幾年前自行創業，在北京做生意。最近他寫了一本書，書名為「十億顧客：在中國做生意學到的教訓」。
他今天在華盛頓郵報發表文章指出，中國政府了解美國的程度遠超過美國政府對中國的了解，因此，中國政府處理美國問題遠比美國處理中國問題高明。中國的領導階層、外交官和官僚體系看待美國有明確的架構，對美國的政策制定和執行有重點且很一致。相對的，美國政府看中國沒有重點、內部各持不同看法，且通常缺乏充份的資訊，白宮、國會、國防部內部對中國都有各種不同看法，加上不妥協的內部政治文化，使美國幾乎不可能制定出協調一致的中國政策。
他表示，自古以來中國外交政策的核心是以夷制夷，挑動蕃人自相互鬥，所以美國國會代表團在人民大會堂會晤中國官員時，不同立場的美國議員當面互相叫罵，讓中國人很高興。
他表示，中國政府官員和企業主管對美國既敬畏又覺得可憐。中國人仰慕美國的企業文化、自由市場、司法體系和研發能力，害怕美國的高科技軍事機器，但他們相信美國正走向衰敗而覺得可憐。
他表示，中國官員和企業主管心裡只想一件事，就是「跟你比我有什麼優勢」？因此對於中國購買美國公債支應美國預算赤字的數字越來越高，中國官員覺得很高興，他們知道中國只要一次不參加美國公債標售會，美國股市就會暴跌；他們也知道如何利用北韓情勢來促進自己的利益，因為布希政府被伊拉克戰爭拖住，需要中國協助處理北韓問題。
但他也指出，中國也沒自己裝出來的那麼強大，甚至還差很遠。中國內部有很大的問題，包括環境污染、貧富差距、貪污腐敗等。中國除了想要變有錢之外，沒有別的意識形態，心靈無所託付。到目前為止因為經濟快速成長、生活改善和政治壓制，情況還能夠控制，但共產黨領導人知道，需要有不同的辦法才能獲得長遠的成功。
麥健陸表示，他了解美國對中國真的有安全方面的憂慮，但不應將這方面的憂慮擴大到破壞美國經濟安全的程度。美國的國內政治問題不應擴散到境外，美國不同政黨之間和行政部門不同派系之間在中國政策上的鬥爭，只會反而使中國從中得利。從美國的觀點看來，中國全面性的商業主義似顯示，這個國家會想盡辦法從美國身上獲利，但美國內部在就中國政策惡鬥時，忽略掉的是中國和美國的歧異是可以處理的，也忽略掉兩國有很多互補之處。如果美國採取聰明且有一致性的中國政策，將可同時協助中國，也幫助美國本身。
他主張，除非中國要收購的美國公司擁有真正先進的軍事科技，否則中國的公司要購併美國的公司就讓他們購併，但美國應以此作為籌碼，同樣美國公司可收購中國公司。例如中海油想要收購優尼科石油公司的問題，美國不應予以排斥，而應利用這種機會要求中國開放加油站投資，並改善外國石油在探勘和開採方面的投資條件。
他表示，美國應採取可行的科技出口政策。中國想要任何商業科技，幾乎都可以從日本、以色列、俄羅斯或歐盟取得。美國對科技出口的管制使美國工具機和半導體生產設備製造商落在後面，如果這種情況持續下去，只會削弱美國科技業者及其研發能力，進而危及美國本身的國家安全。他也主張美國將重點放在智慧財產權的保護上面，長期而言對中國及其貿易伙伴都有利。
他也建議，不要再向中國鼓吹立即實施民主。天安門事件後，中國民眾的訊息是，美國要中國民主化，是因為美國要中國陷入混亂，讓中國繼續窮下去，這樣美國才能維持富裕。就算是對政府有所不滿的中國人，也相信經歷兩千年由上而下統治的國家，只能慢慢的推動多元化。美國可協助中國推動政治多元化的地方是，協助中國加強司法體系和法治，並且大量提供簽證讓中國人可到美國的大學讀書和參加公共政策討論會。（中央社記者林文集華盛頓三十一日專電）
華盛頓郵報今天刊出中國美商商會前會長麥健陸（James McGregor）的文章，指美國政府對中國了解太少，玩不過中國政府，他呼籲美國政黨和行政部門內部停止在中國政策上內鬥，因為這只會讓中國從中獲利。
他並建議美國不要再向中國鼓吹立即實施民主，對中國科技出口和中國公司購併美國公司等問題採取開放的態度。
麥健陸已在北京待了十五年，曾任華爾街日報駐台北和駐北京記者，後來從商擔任美國道瓊公司中國分公司執行長，期間曾任中國美國商會會長，幾年前自行創業，在北京做生意。最近他寫了一本書，書名為「十億顧客：在中國做生意學到的教訓」。
他今天在華盛頓郵報發表文章指出，中國政府了解美國的程度遠超過美國政府對中國的了解，因此，中國政府處理美國問題遠比美國處理中國問題高明。中國的領導階層、外交官和官僚體系看待美國有明確的架構，對美國的政策制定和執行有重點且很一致。相對的，美國政府看中國沒有重點、內部各持不同看法，且通常缺乏充份的資訊，白宮、國會、國防部內部對中國都有各種不同看法，加上不妥協的內部政治文化，使美國幾乎不可能制定出協調一致的中國政策。
他表示，自古以來中國外交政策的核心是以夷制夷，挑動蕃人自相互鬥，所以美國國會代表團在人民大會堂會晤中國官員時，不同立場的美國議員當面互相叫罵，讓中國人很高興。
他表示，中國政府官員和企業主管對美國既敬畏又覺得可憐。中國人仰慕美國的企業文化、自由市場、司法體系和研發能力，害怕美國的高科技軍事機器，但他們相信美國正走向衰敗而覺得可憐。
他表示，中國官員和企業主管心裡只想一件事，就是「跟你比我有什麼優勢」？因此對於中國購買美國公債支應美國預算赤字的數字越來越高，中國官員覺得很高興，他們知道中國只要一次不參加美國公債標售會，美國股市就會暴跌；他們也知道如何利用北韓情勢來促進自己的利益，因為布希政府被伊拉克戰爭拖住，需要中國協助處理北韓問題。
但他也指出，中國也沒自己裝出來的那麼強大，甚至還差很遠。中國內部有很大的問題，包括環境污染、貧富差距、貪污腐敗等。中國除了想要變有錢之外，沒有別的意識形態，心靈無所託付。到目前為止因為經濟快速成長、生活改善和政治壓制，情況還能夠控制，但共產黨領導人知道，需要有不同的辦法才能獲得長遠的成功。
麥健陸表示，他了解美國對中國真的有安全方面的憂慮，但不應將這方面的憂慮擴大到破壞美國經濟安全的程度。美國的國內政治問題不應擴散到境外，美國不同政黨之間和行政部門不同派系之間在中國政策上的鬥爭，只會反而使中國從中得利。從美國的觀點看來，中國全面性的商業主義似顯示，這個國家會想盡辦法從美國身上獲利，但美國內部在就中國政策惡鬥時，忽略掉的是中國和美國的歧異是可以處理的，也忽略掉兩國有很多互補之處。如果美國採取聰明且有一致性的中國政策，將可同時協助中國，也幫助美國本身。
他主張，除非中國要收購的美國公司擁有真正先進的軍事科技，否則中國的公司要購併美國的公司就讓他們購併，但美國應以此作為籌碼，同樣美國公司可收購中國公司。例如中海油想要收購優尼科石油公司的問題，美國不應予以排斥，而應利用這種機會要求中國開放加油站投資，並改善外國石油在探勘和開採方面的投資條件。
他表示，美國應採取可行的科技出口政策。中國想要任何商業科技，幾乎都可以從日本、以色列、俄羅斯或歐盟取得。美國對科技出口的管制使美國工具機和半導體生產設備製造商落在後面，如果這種情況持續下去，只會削弱美國科技業者及其研發能力，進而危及美國本身的國家安全。他也主張美國將重點放在智慧財產權的保護上面，長期而言對中國及其貿易伙伴都有利。
他也建議，不要再向中國鼓吹立即實施民主。天安門事件後，中國民眾的訊息是，美國要中國民主化，是因為美國要中國陷入混亂，讓中國繼續窮下去，這樣美國才能維持富裕。就算是對政府有所不滿的中國人，也相信經歷兩千年由上而下統治的國家，只能慢慢的推動多元化。美國可協助中國推動政治多元化的地方是，協助中國加強司法體系和法治，並且大量提供簽證讓中國人可到美國的大學讀書和參加公共政策討論會。
台湾翻译的文章，原文略有删节。看全文请上华盛顿邮报网站。
凤凰上的转载好象也是删节版
说的是实情
此人稍有头脑
要收买此人，不行的话派特工干掉他
这个光荣的任务就交给你了
[B]以下是引用[I]nebraska[/I]在2005-8-1 11:16:00的发言：[/B][BR]这个光荣的任务就交给你了我倾向与色诱，可惜没大婶您的美貌啊
用牛肉引诱
一定成功
一定成功
在北京15年，确实看到了一些情况
他也建議，不要再向中國鼓吹立即實施民主。天安門事件後，中國民眾的訊息是，美國要中國民主化，是因為美國要中國陷入混亂，讓中國繼續窮下去，這樣美國才能維持富裕。就算是對政府有所不滿的中國人，也相信經歷兩千年由上而下統治的國家，只能慢慢的推動多元化。美國可協助中國推動政治多元化的地方是，協助中國加強司法體系和法治，並且大量提供簽證讓中國人可到美國的大學讀書和參加公共政策討論會。
就是就是，不要再耍那些小儿科的把戏了，事实胜于雄辩，看看今天的东欧和俄罗斯就知道了
就是就是，不要再耍那些小儿科的把戏了，事实胜于雄辩，看看今天的东欧和俄罗斯就知道了
[B]以下是引用[I]nebraska[/I]在2005-8-1 9:31:00的发言：[/B][BR]凤凰上的转载好象也是删节版
凤凰网站是把台湾的文章转过来以后，删掉了一些。
所以美國國會代表團在人民大會堂會晤中國官員時，不同立場的美國議員當面互相叫罵，讓中國人很高興。
太可怕了，必杀此人！！！！！！！！！
（贴子用简体字就好了！）
（贴子用简体字就好了！）
原文如下，有兴趣的自己看吧！
Advantage, China
In This Match, They Play Us Better Than We Play Them
By James McGregor
Sunday, July 31, 2005; Page B01
BEIJING -- We're losing the intelligence war against China.
No, not the one with spy satellites, human operatives and electronic eavesdropping. I'm talking about intelligence : having an intelligent understanding of and intelligent discussions about China -- where it's heading, why it's bidding to buy major U.S. companies and whether we should worry. Above all, I'm talking about formulating and pursuing intelligent policies for dealing with China.
The Chinese government today understands America much better than our government understands China. Consequently, the Chinese government is much better at pulling our strings than we are at pulling theirs. China's top leaders, diplomats and bureaucrats have a clear framework from which they view the United States, and they are focused and unified in formulating and implementing their policies toward us.
In contrast, our government's viewpoint on China is unfocused, fractured and often uninformed. Is China still the Red Menace of the Cold War or a hot new competitor out to eat our economic lunch? Both views as well as a hodgepodge of other interpretations can be found in the halls of the White House, Congress and the Pentagon. Add to that confusion a vicious domestic political culture that brooks no compromise, and the chances of formulating a coherent China policy approach nil.
Playing the barbarians off against each other has been a core tenet of Chinese foreign policy since the imperial dynasty days when China's maps depicted a huge landmass labeled the "Middle Kingdom" surrounded by tiny islands labeled England, Germany, France, America, Russia and Africa. China was the center of the world and everyone else was a barbarian. That's why the Chinese are delighted by spectacles such as when rival members of a U.S. congressional delegation screamed at one another in front of their Chinese hosts in the Great Hall of the People. And what should they think of the time top Chinese officials laid out clear policy objectives to an American business audience and a U.S. cabinet member responded by saying "Jesus loves the Chinese people"?
Since the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, China policy has been a political football that American politicians kick back and forth to score points against one another. In the 1990s, it was a penalty-free game because the United States had the upper hand. China needed our capital, technology, know-how and insatiable consumer market to build its economy, as well as our blessing to join the World Trade Organization (WTO).
But those days are over. China's raging consumer market, its massive export machine, voracious appetite for global resources and more than $700 billion in foreign exchange reserves puts the ball in its court. It is difficult to overstate the transformation that has swept China in the past 15 years. To frame it in terms of comparable historical changes in the United States, China has been simultaneously experiencing the raw capitalism of the robber baron era of the late 1800s; the speculative financial mania of the 1920s; the rural-to-urban migration of the 1930s; the emergence of the first-car, first-home, first-fashionable-clothes, first-college-education, first-family-vacation middle-class consumer boom of the 1950s; and even aspects of social upheaval similar to the 1960s.
Today Chinese government officials and business executives admire, fear and pity the United States. They admire our entrepreneurial culture, free markets, legal system and ability to unemotionally discard what doesn't work while our best-in-the-world universities and enormous R&D capabilities create new products and services. China's economic reforms over the past 25 years have been aimed at creating a Chinese variation of the U.S. economic system and its ability to unleash entrepreneurial instincts and harness markets to build a world-beating economy.
China's fear stems from seeing our high-tech military machine in action. I will never forget standing in front of the Beijing train station during the first Gulf War, amid a sea of Chinese workers, thousands of whom had stopped their bicycles in the street to watch slack-jawed as huge outdoor TV screens displayed footage of American missiles screaming down Baghdad smokestacks. Just a few blocks away in the leadership compound of Zhongnanhai, Chinese officials imagined such destruction raining down on Beijing and realized that their strategy of defending China with swarms of peasant soldiers was as outdated as Maoist philosophy. They immediately embarked on a multi-decade plan to build a military as advanced as ours.
Chinese pity comes from their belief that we are a country in decline. More than a few Chinese friends have quoted to me the proverb fu bu guo san dai (wealth doesn't make it past three generations) as they wonder how we became so ill-disciplined, distracted and dissolute. The fury surrounding Monica-gate seemed an incomprehensible waste of time to a nation whose emperors were supplied with thousands of concubines. Chinese are equally astonished that Americans are allowing themselves to drown in debt and under-fund public schools while the media focus on fights over feeding tubes, displays of the Ten Commandments and how to eat as much as we can without getting fat.
China is all about unity, focus and leverage. Chinese officials and business executives are obsessed with a single question: What advantage do I have over you? No surprise then that Chinese officials are delighted to be funding ever larger portions of America's budget deficit. They know that if they sat out one U.S. Treasury auction, the U.S. stock markets would tumble. They yawn when Congress threatens to impose huge tariffs on Chinese imports, knowing that the resulting huge price increases at Wal-Mart, Best Buy and the Gap would cost some members of Congress their jobs. And while the Chinese do not relish sharing a border with the nutso North Koreans, they are happy to turn this bad situation to their advantage. The Bush administration desperately needs China's help in quelling the hermit kingdom's nuclear ambitions while we are bogged down in Iraq.
Still, China isn't even a fraction as powerful as it pretends to be. Beneath the bluster, it is a nation beset with internal problems. Pollution chokes its air and water. The growing gap between the haves and have-nots and rampant government corruption are triggering almost daily demonstrations. And China has no ideology other than enriching itself. The relentless commercial drive that has shaken China out of its imperial and socialist stupor has now become an end unto itself, leaving a population that is spiritually adrift. So far rapid economic growth, looser lifestyle strictures and straightforward political repression have held things together, but the Communist Party leadership knows that it needs a different formula for long-term success.
From a U.S. perspective, China's untempered commercialism suggests a nation out to milk us of everything it can. What is being lost in our vicious battles over China policy is that China and America have manageable differences and many complementary interests. With an intelligent and consistent China policy, the United States could help China and itself at the same time.
I offer these humble suggestions as a patriotic American who has lived in Beijing for 15 years -- and as a person who respects the Chinese people and what they are accomplishing.
Domestic politics should stop at the U.S. border. Trench warfare on China policy between the political parties and executive branch factions only plays into China's hands.
Stop preaching instant democracy. After the Tiananmen massacre, China's state media engendered a "nationalism of resentment." Aimed at cooling the ardor that young Chinese felt for America, the media portrayed the United States as having a secret agenda to keep China poor so that America can stay rich. A key part of this message is that America wants China to democratize because it will plunge the country into chaos. Those who survived the insanity of the Cultural Revolution see the point. Even Chinese people I know who are unhappy with their government believe that a nation with two millennia of top-down rule can only pluralize gradually. America can best help China inch toward political pluralism by trying to strengthen China's court system and rule of law and by making visas plentiful again for Chinese to attend our universities and public policy forums.
Let Chinese companies purchase or merge with U.S. companies unless the American company has genuine advanced military technology. We should also require reciprocity. Take the recent China National Offshore Oil Corporation Ltd. (CNOOC) bid to purchase Unocal Corp. Hysteria led to passage of a ridiculous House resolution by 398 to 15 expressing national security concerns about the deal, which involved a scant 0.8 percent of U.S. oil production. Instead, the United States should have responded as China would: Use the deal as leverage. America's politicians should have welcomed the CNOOC deal as long as China changed its own oil policies, which prevent foreign companies from operating gas stations in China, compel them to use Chinese companies when exploring for oil and almost always offer exploration leases for foreigners at the edges of promising fields to help China pinpoint the location of the biggest reservoirs for its own drillers.
Develop smart, workable rules on technology exports. Since the mid-1990s, China has been able to purchase almost any commercial technology it desires from Japan, Israel, Russia or the European Union. Bogged down in a bureaucratic quagmire of ever-changing rules and approval processes, U.S. machine tool makers and silicon chip equipment manufacturers have fallen behind. If this continues, we will endanger our own national security base by weakening our technology companies and their R&D capabilities. Nevertheless, many in Washington favor "catch-all control" regulations that could, for example, block a U.S. truck engine manufacturer from doing business with a Chinese firm that supplies some engines for Chinese army trucks. European and Japanese truck engine makers doubtless will be deeply grateful.
Vigorously push trade issues that provide a long-term win-win for China and its trading partners. Our focus should be intellectual property rights (IPR) protection. China's original modernization model was to invite foreign firms to manufacture for export in joint-ventures with Chinese companies. China was then supposed to learn to build its own companies and products. But many huge companies have been built through the wholesale theft of intellectual property and rampant copying of products. Within a three-block radius of my Beijing apartment, there are several dozen shops selling any Hollywood movie or American television series of note for $1 per DVD, copies of Prada and Louis Vuitton handbags for $10, nearly perfect copies of Callaway or Taylor Made golf clubs for $150, and fake North Face parkas for $35. Copied pharmaceuticals, car parts and the whole gamut of industrial products are plentiful across China. Worse, more and more such products are being exported. Chinese piracy is rapidly undermining political support for China in Congress and hampering the growth of its most innovative companies.
China knows the problem needs fixing but fears job losses and potential unrest in the towns and villages that host copycat factories. New U.S. Trade Representative Rob Portman could take a lesson from a predecessor, Charlene Barshefsky, who drafted a road map to guide China to WTO accession. As with WTO, China lacks the political will or consensus to come up with a plan on its own. The U.S. government should also back a new effort by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the American Chamber of Commerce in China to rate Chinese provinces and cities by their level of IPR enforcement. Public embarrassment and internal competition for foreign investment may prove to be stronger motivators than foreign complaints.
I understand America's genuine security concerns regarding China. But they should not be overblown to the point where they undermine our economic security. I also understand that reaching a political consensus isn't easy. But I am worried about the erosion of the sensible center. Chinese and U.S. politicians share the blame. As a global economic power, China can no longer employ IPR policies appropriate for a banana republic. And responsible members of Congress can no longer gin up China hysteria to get votes.
The stakes are getting too high.
Author's e-mail: jlmcgregor@jlmcgregor.com
James McGregor is a journalist-turned-businessman and former chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China. His book "One Billion Customers: Lessons From the Front Lines of Doing Business in China" (Simon & Schuster/ The Wall Street Journal Books) will be published in October.
Advantage, China
In This Match, They Play Us Better Than We Play Them
By James McGregor
Sunday, July 31, 2005; Page B01
BEIJING -- We're losing the intelligence war against China.
No, not the one with spy satellites, human operatives and electronic eavesdropping. I'm talking about intelligence : having an intelligent understanding of and intelligent discussions about China -- where it's heading, why it's bidding to buy major U.S. companies and whether we should worry. Above all, I'm talking about formulating and pursuing intelligent policies for dealing with China.
The Chinese government today understands America much better than our government understands China. Consequently, the Chinese government is much better at pulling our strings than we are at pulling theirs. China's top leaders, diplomats and bureaucrats have a clear framework from which they view the United States, and they are focused and unified in formulating and implementing their policies toward us.
In contrast, our government's viewpoint on China is unfocused, fractured and often uninformed. Is China still the Red Menace of the Cold War or a hot new competitor out to eat our economic lunch? Both views as well as a hodgepodge of other interpretations can be found in the halls of the White House, Congress and the Pentagon. Add to that confusion a vicious domestic political culture that brooks no compromise, and the chances of formulating a coherent China policy approach nil.
Playing the barbarians off against each other has been a core tenet of Chinese foreign policy since the imperial dynasty days when China's maps depicted a huge landmass labeled the "Middle Kingdom" surrounded by tiny islands labeled England, Germany, France, America, Russia and Africa. China was the center of the world and everyone else was a barbarian. That's why the Chinese are delighted by spectacles such as when rival members of a U.S. congressional delegation screamed at one another in front of their Chinese hosts in the Great Hall of the People. And what should they think of the time top Chinese officials laid out clear policy objectives to an American business audience and a U.S. cabinet member responded by saying "Jesus loves the Chinese people"?
Since the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, China policy has been a political football that American politicians kick back and forth to score points against one another. In the 1990s, it was a penalty-free game because the United States had the upper hand. China needed our capital, technology, know-how and insatiable consumer market to build its economy, as well as our blessing to join the World Trade Organization (WTO).
But those days are over. China's raging consumer market, its massive export machine, voracious appetite for global resources and more than $700 billion in foreign exchange reserves puts the ball in its court. It is difficult to overstate the transformation that has swept China in the past 15 years. To frame it in terms of comparable historical changes in the United States, China has been simultaneously experiencing the raw capitalism of the robber baron era of the late 1800s; the speculative financial mania of the 1920s; the rural-to-urban migration of the 1930s; the emergence of the first-car, first-home, first-fashionable-clothes, first-college-education, first-family-vacation middle-class consumer boom of the 1950s; and even aspects of social upheaval similar to the 1960s.
Today Chinese government officials and business executives admire, fear and pity the United States. They admire our entrepreneurial culture, free markets, legal system and ability to unemotionally discard what doesn't work while our best-in-the-world universities and enormous R&D capabilities create new products and services. China's economic reforms over the past 25 years have been aimed at creating a Chinese variation of the U.S. economic system and its ability to unleash entrepreneurial instincts and harness markets to build a world-beating economy.
China's fear stems from seeing our high-tech military machine in action. I will never forget standing in front of the Beijing train station during the first Gulf War, amid a sea of Chinese workers, thousands of whom had stopped their bicycles in the street to watch slack-jawed as huge outdoor TV screens displayed footage of American missiles screaming down Baghdad smokestacks. Just a few blocks away in the leadership compound of Zhongnanhai, Chinese officials imagined such destruction raining down on Beijing and realized that their strategy of defending China with swarms of peasant soldiers was as outdated as Maoist philosophy. They immediately embarked on a multi-decade plan to build a military as advanced as ours.
Chinese pity comes from their belief that we are a country in decline. More than a few Chinese friends have quoted to me the proverb fu bu guo san dai (wealth doesn't make it past three generations) as they wonder how we became so ill-disciplined, distracted and dissolute. The fury surrounding Monica-gate seemed an incomprehensible waste of time to a nation whose emperors were supplied with thousands of concubines. Chinese are equally astonished that Americans are allowing themselves to drown in debt and under-fund public schools while the media focus on fights over feeding tubes, displays of the Ten Commandments and how to eat as much as we can without getting fat.
China is all about unity, focus and leverage. Chinese officials and business executives are obsessed with a single question: What advantage do I have over you? No surprise then that Chinese officials are delighted to be funding ever larger portions of America's budget deficit. They know that if they sat out one U.S. Treasury auction, the U.S. stock markets would tumble. They yawn when Congress threatens to impose huge tariffs on Chinese imports, knowing that the resulting huge price increases at Wal-Mart, Best Buy and the Gap would cost some members of Congress their jobs. And while the Chinese do not relish sharing a border with the nutso North Koreans, they are happy to turn this bad situation to their advantage. The Bush administration desperately needs China's help in quelling the hermit kingdom's nuclear ambitions while we are bogged down in Iraq.
Still, China isn't even a fraction as powerful as it pretends to be. Beneath the bluster, it is a nation beset with internal problems. Pollution chokes its air and water. The growing gap between the haves and have-nots and rampant government corruption are triggering almost daily demonstrations. And China has no ideology other than enriching itself. The relentless commercial drive that has shaken China out of its imperial and socialist stupor has now become an end unto itself, leaving a population that is spiritually adrift. So far rapid economic growth, looser lifestyle strictures and straightforward political repression have held things together, but the Communist Party leadership knows that it needs a different formula for long-term success.
From a U.S. perspective, China's untempered commercialism suggests a nation out to milk us of everything it can. What is being lost in our vicious battles over China policy is that China and America have manageable differences and many complementary interests. With an intelligent and consistent China policy, the United States could help China and itself at the same time.
I offer these humble suggestions as a patriotic American who has lived in Beijing for 15 years -- and as a person who respects the Chinese people and what they are accomplishing.
Domestic politics should stop at the U.S. border. Trench warfare on China policy between the political parties and executive branch factions only plays into China's hands.
Stop preaching instant democracy. After the Tiananmen massacre, China's state media engendered a "nationalism of resentment." Aimed at cooling the ardor that young Chinese felt for America, the media portrayed the United States as having a secret agenda to keep China poor so that America can stay rich. A key part of this message is that America wants China to democratize because it will plunge the country into chaos. Those who survived the insanity of the Cultural Revolution see the point. Even Chinese people I know who are unhappy with their government believe that a nation with two millennia of top-down rule can only pluralize gradually. America can best help China inch toward political pluralism by trying to strengthen China's court system and rule of law and by making visas plentiful again for Chinese to attend our universities and public policy forums.
Let Chinese companies purchase or merge with U.S. companies unless the American company has genuine advanced military technology. We should also require reciprocity. Take the recent China National Offshore Oil Corporation Ltd. (CNOOC) bid to purchase Unocal Corp. Hysteria led to passage of a ridiculous House resolution by 398 to 15 expressing national security concerns about the deal, which involved a scant 0.8 percent of U.S. oil production. Instead, the United States should have responded as China would: Use the deal as leverage. America's politicians should have welcomed the CNOOC deal as long as China changed its own oil policies, which prevent foreign companies from operating gas stations in China, compel them to use Chinese companies when exploring for oil and almost always offer exploration leases for foreigners at the edges of promising fields to help China pinpoint the location of the biggest reservoirs for its own drillers.
Develop smart, workable rules on technology exports. Since the mid-1990s, China has been able to purchase almost any commercial technology it desires from Japan, Israel, Russia or the European Union. Bogged down in a bureaucratic quagmire of ever-changing rules and approval processes, U.S. machine tool makers and silicon chip equipment manufacturers have fallen behind. If this continues, we will endanger our own national security base by weakening our technology companies and their R&D capabilities. Nevertheless, many in Washington favor "catch-all control" regulations that could, for example, block a U.S. truck engine manufacturer from doing business with a Chinese firm that supplies some engines for Chinese army trucks. European and Japanese truck engine makers doubtless will be deeply grateful.
Vigorously push trade issues that provide a long-term win-win for China and its trading partners. Our focus should be intellectual property rights (IPR) protection. China's original modernization model was to invite foreign firms to manufacture for export in joint-ventures with Chinese companies. China was then supposed to learn to build its own companies and products. But many huge companies have been built through the wholesale theft of intellectual property and rampant copying of products. Within a three-block radius of my Beijing apartment, there are several dozen shops selling any Hollywood movie or American television series of note for $1 per DVD, copies of Prada and Louis Vuitton handbags for $10, nearly perfect copies of Callaway or Taylor Made golf clubs for $150, and fake North Face parkas for $35. Copied pharmaceuticals, car parts and the whole gamut of industrial products are plentiful across China. Worse, more and more such products are being exported. Chinese piracy is rapidly undermining political support for China in Congress and hampering the growth of its most innovative companies.
China knows the problem needs fixing but fears job losses and potential unrest in the towns and villages that host copycat factories. New U.S. Trade Representative Rob Portman could take a lesson from a predecessor, Charlene Barshefsky, who drafted a road map to guide China to WTO accession. As with WTO, China lacks the political will or consensus to come up with a plan on its own. The U.S. government should also back a new effort by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the American Chamber of Commerce in China to rate Chinese provinces and cities by their level of IPR enforcement. Public embarrassment and internal competition for foreign investment may prove to be stronger motivators than foreign complaints.
I understand America's genuine security concerns regarding China. But they should not be overblown to the point where they undermine our economic security. I also understand that reaching a political consensus isn't easy. But I am worried about the erosion of the sensible center. Chinese and U.S. politicians share the blame. As a global economic power, China can no longer employ IPR policies appropriate for a banana republic. And responsible members of Congress can no longer gin up China hysteria to get votes.
The stakes are getting too high.
Author's e-mail: jlmcgregor@jlmcgregor.com
James McGregor is a journalist-turned-businessman and former chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China. His book "One Billion Customers: Lessons From the Front Lines of Doing Business in China" (Simon & Schuster/ The Wall Street Journal Books) will be published in October.
我觉得应该支持此人入主白宫才对，如果美国政府对华政策如他所想，那么中美可以是很好的合作伙伴才对，他应该知道中国并没有威胁挑战美国的意图。
[此贴子已经被nebraska于2005-8-1 21:23:48编辑过]