超级军网ISIS树立了许多敌人，但他们无法联合复仇
来源：百度文库 编辑：超级军网 时间：2024/04/29 18:42:07
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com
论坛地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-336324-1-1.html
Isis has made many enemies, but it may be saved by their inability to unite
ISIS树立了许多敌人，但他们无法联合复仇
Exclusive: In Irbil, Patrick Cockburn hears from a Kurdish official how Gulf oil cash is shoring up the terrorists, and why this, with a divided enemy, suggests a long war ahead
独家：在埃尔比勒，独立报记者帕特里克·克伯恩从一名库尔德官员那儿得知海湾石油的现金是怎样支持到恐怖分子的，并且为什么有着不同的敌人的他们，暗示着未来有着长期的战争。
Islamic State is still receiving significant financial support from Arab sympathisers outside Iraq and Syria, enabling it to expand its war effort, says a senior Kurdish official.
伊斯兰国仍然在接受来自伊拉克和叙利亚的阿拉伯支持者们巨大的财政支援，使得它能扩大战争支出，一名库尔德的高级官员说。
译文来源:龙腾网 HTTP://WWW.LTAAA.COM
The US has being trying to stop such private donors in the Gulf oil states sending to Islamic State (Isis) funds that help pay the salaries of fighters who may number well over 100,000.
美国一直在尝试遏制海湾国家对伊斯兰国提供的私人资助，这些资助帮助提供了超过十万伊斯兰国的战士的薪水。
Fuad Hussein, the chief of staff of the Kurdish President, Massoud Barzani, told The Independent on Sunday: “There is sympathy for Da’esh [the Arabic acronym for IS, also known as Isis] in many Arab countries and this has translated into money – and that is a disaster.” He pointed out that until recently financial aid was being given more or less openly by Gulf states to the opposition in Syria – but by now most of these rebel groups have been absorbed into IS and Jabhat al-Nusra, the al-Qaeda affiliate, so it is they “who now have the money and the weapons”.
法埃德 侯赛因，库尔德总统马苏德·巴尔扎尼的幕僚长，在周日时告诉独立报记者：“在很多阿拉伯国家对‘达拉’（对IS的阿拉伯缩写，也作为Isis）存有同情的心理，然后这种心理转化成了资助的金钱——这简直是一场灾难。”他指出直到近期，来自海湾国家的资助都是半公开地给予叙利亚的反对派——但是最近大多数的反抗组织都被吸收进了伊斯兰国和基地组织的分支，叙利亚胜利战线组织。所以现在都是他们拿着钱和武器。”
Mr Hussein would not identify the states from which the funding for IS comes today, but implied that they were the same Gulf oil states that financed Sunni Arab rebels in Iraq and Syria in the past.
侯赛因先生今天不愿意指认那些资助伊斯兰国的国家，但是暗示到他们过去也是资助伊拉克和叙利亚的逊尼派阿拉伯叛乱分子的海湾石油国家。
Dr Mahmoud Othman, a veteran member of the Iraqi Kurdish leadership who recently retired from the Iraqi parliament, said there was a misunderstanding as to why Gulf countries paid off IS. It is not only that donors are supporters of IS, but that the movement “gets money from the Arab countries because they are afraid of it”, he says. “Gulf countries give money to Da’esh so that it promises not to carry out operations on their territory.”
马哈茂德 奥瑟曼博士，伊拉克库尔德领导班子的一名资深成员，最近刚从伊拉克议会中退任，说到对于为什么海湾国家为IS买单外界有误解。不止是那些资助者是IS的支援人，并且组织活动“还从那些怕他们的阿拉伯国家里收钱”，他说道。“海湾国家给IS钱所以他们承诺不在他们的领土内执行组织活动。”
Iraqi leaders in Baghdad privately express similar suspicions that IS – with a territory the size of Great Britain and a population of six million fighting a war on multiple fronts, from Aleppo to the Iranian border – could not be financially self-sufficient, given the calls on its limited resources.
在巴格达的伊拉克领导人也私底下表达了类似的怀疑——伊斯兰国，一个只有英国领土大小和六百万人口的地方在多个战场进行战争，从阿勒颇到伊朗边境，考虑到它有限的资源，不可能在经济上自给自足。
Islamic State is doing everything it can to expand its military capacity, as the Iraqi Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi, and the US Central Command (CentCom) threaten an offensive later this year to recapture Mosul. Regardless of the feasibility of this operation, IS forces are fighting in widely different locations across northern and central Iraq.
伊斯兰国在竭尽所能地扩大军事能力，由于伊拉克的总理，海德阿巴迪，和美国中央司令部（以下缩写为“美司”）攻击威胁到在今年年末时夺回摩苏尔。不论这次行动的可行性，伊斯兰国武装在横跨北边和中央伊拉克的大范围地区进行着战争。
Isis areas gained and lost
伊斯兰国得到和失去的地区
On Tuesday night they made a surprise attack with between 300 and 400 fighters, many of them North Africans from Tunisia, Algeria and Libya, on Kurdish forces 40 miles west of the Kurdish capital, Irbil. The Kurds say that 34 IS fighters were killed in fighting and by US air strikes. At the same time, IS was battling for control of the town of al-Baghdadi, several hundred miles away in Anbar province. Despite forecasts by a CentCom spokesman last week that the tide has turned and that IS is on the retreat there is little sign of this on the ground.
在周二晚他们进行了一次300到400人之间的突袭，他们中很多北非人来自突尼斯、阿尔及利亚和利比亚，在库尔德首都埃尔比勒西部四十英里的库尔德武装的地方。库尔德人说美国空军空袭和当地的战斗消灭了34名伊斯兰国武装分子。同时，IS为了掌握巴格达迪的一个城镇而战斗，在安巴省几百英里的地方。尽管中央司令部发言人上周预测到局势已经转变了，伊斯兰国已经在撤退，但在战争发生地几乎还没有这种迹象。
On the contrary, IS appears to have the human and financial resources to fight a long war, though both are under strain. According to interviews by The Independent with people living in Mosul reached by phone, or with recent refugees from the city, IS officials are conscripting at least one young man from every family in Mosul, which has a population of 1.5 million. It has drafted a list of draconian punishments for those not willing to fight, starting with 80 lashes and ending with execution.
相对的，IS似乎是有着人力和财力资源去进行一场长期的战争，尽管双边都处在紧张局势之下。根据独立报对在摩苏尔生活的人民的电话采访，或者从最近城市的难民来看，IS的官员从拥有150万人口的摩苏尔每个家庭至少征召一名年轻人。它对于那些不愿意战斗的年轻人已经起草了一份严厉的惩罚措施方法，从80鞭罚到直接处决。
All these new recruits receive pay, as well as their keep, which until recently was $500 (￡324) a month but has now been cut to about $350. Officers and commanders receive much more. A local source, who did not want to be named, says that foreign fighters, of whom there are an estimated 20,000 in IS, get a much higher salary – starting at $800 a month.
所有的这些招募的新兵都有工资，他们自己保存，从之前的每个月500美元（324英镑）到现在缩减到350美元。官员和司令官收到的多得多。一个当地的不愿提及名字的信息源说外国的战士，在IS内大约有两万名，拿更高的薪金——从800美元每月起。
Fuad Hussein, chief of staff to Kurdish President Massoud Barzani (EPA)
法埃德侯赛因，库尔德总统马苏德·巴尔扎尼的幕僚长（EPA）
“I know three foreign fighters,” said Ahmad, a 45-year-old shopkeeper still working in Mosul. “I usually see them at checkpoints in our neighbourhood: one is Turkish and the others are Europeans. Some of them speak a little Arabic. I know them well because they buy soft drinks from the shops in our neighbourhood. The Turkish one is my customer. He says he talks to his family using the satellite internet service that is available for the foreigners, who have excellent privileges in terms of salaries, spoils and even captives.”
“我知道三个外国的战士，”艾哈迈德说，一个仍然在摩苏尔工作的45岁小店店主。“我通常在邻里的检查点看见他们：一个是土耳其人，另外的是欧洲人。他们中的一些会说一点阿拉伯语。我跟他们还比较熟因为他们经常在我们这片儿的店里买饮料。土耳其人是我的顾客。他说他通过外国人能用的卫星网络服务和家人通话，他们在薪金上，战利品以及俘虏上都有额外的特权。”
Ahmad added: “Isis fighters have arrested four high-school teachers for telling their students not to join Isis.” Islamic State fighters have entered the schools and demanded that students in their final year join them. Isis has also lowered the conscription age below 18 years of age, leading some families to leave the city. Military bases for the training and arming of children have also been established.
艾哈迈德补充到：“Isis 战士还抓捕了我们的高中老师，因为他们告诉学生们不要加入IS。”伊斯兰国的武装分子还进入的学校并且要求他们在学习的最后一年加入他们。IS还把征兵的年龄要求降到18岁以下，迫使一些家庭离开城市。一些为了训练和武装儿童的军事基地也被建立起来了。
Given this degree of mobilisation by Islamic State, statements from Mr Abadi and CentCom about recapturing Mosul this spring, using between 20,000 and 25,000 Baghdad government and Kurdish forces, sound like an effort to boost morale on the anti-Isis side.
考虑到伊斯兰国动员的程度，阿巴迪先生和美司令部关于这个春天夺回摩苏尔的声明，用两万到两万五的巴格达政府军和库德尔武装，听起来只像为了在反IS阵营里鼓舞士气的努力。
The CentCom spokesman claimed there were only between 1,000 and 2,000 Isis fighters in Mosul, which is out of keeping with what local observers report. Ominously, Iraqi and foreign governments have an impressive record of underestimating Isis as a military and political force over the past two years.
美司令部发言人宣称在摩苏尔只有1千到两千的IS武装者，这与当地观察员的报告的数量并不相符。不吉利地，伊拉克和外国政府在过去的两年间对于低估IS作为军事力量和政府武装有着印象深刻的记录。（损失惨重）
Mr Hussein said at the end of last year that Isis had “hundreds of thousands of fighters”, at a time when the CIA was claiming they numbered between 20,000 and 31,500. He does not wholly rule out an offensive to take Mosul but, as he outlines the conditions for a successful attack, it becomes clear that he does not expect the city to be recaptured any time soon. For the Kurdish Peshmerga forces to storm Mosul they would need far better equipment “in order to wage a decisive war against Isis and defeat them”, he says. “So far we are only defeating them in various places in Kurdistan by giving our blood. We have had 1,011 Peshmerga killed and about 5,000 wounded.”
侯赛因先生去年年底时说，IS有着“成百上千的战士”，在CIA宣称他们有两万到三万一千五人数时。他不完全排除攻击占下摩苏尔的计划，但是当他规划一场胜利的攻击情况时，很明显他并不想要这座城市很快再被争夺回去。因为库德尔自由武装突袭摩苏尔时他们需要更好的装备“去进行一场对IS的决定性战斗并打败他们”，他说道。“目前为止我们通过流血牺牲只在库尔德斯坦的一些地方击败过他们。我们有1011位自由斗士牺牲，有约5000名战士受伤。”
The Kurds want heavy weapons including Humvees, tanks to surround but not to enter Mosul, snipers’ rifles, because Isis has many highly accurate snipers, as well as equipment to deal with improvised explosive devices and booby traps, both of which Isis uses profusely.
库尔德人想要一些重武器，包括运输车、去包围摩苏尔而不是进入摩苏尔的坦克、狙击手步枪，因为IS有许多精准的狙击手，还有一些针对IS经常使用的简易爆炸装置和诡雷的设备。
Above all, Kurdish participation in an offensive would require a military partner in the shape of an effective Iraqi army and local Sunni allies. Without the latter, a battle for Mosul conducted by Shia and Kurds alone would provoke Sunni Arab resistance. Mr Hussein is dubious about the effectiveness of the Iraqi army, which disintegrated last June when, though nominally it had 350,000 soldiers, it was defeated by a few thousand Isis fighters.
首先，库尔德人实施进攻需要一个有效的类似于伊拉克军队和当地逊尼派组织的军事伙伴。没有后者，单单是什叶派和库尔德人对摩苏尔进攻的话会激起逊尼派阿拉伯人的抵抗。侯赛因先生对伊拉克军队的效率比较怀疑，它在去年六月时衰退了，当它尽管名义上有三十五万名士兵时，被IS几千人的武装力量打败。
Pro-Islamic State demonstrators in front of the provincial government headquarters in Mosul (EPA)
支持伊斯兰国的示威者，在摩苏尔的省政府总部门前（EPA）
“The Iraqi army has two divisions to protect Baghdad, but is it possible for the Iraqi government to release them?” asks Mr Hussein. “And how will they get to Mosul? If they have to come through Tikrit and Baiji, they will have to fight hard along the way even before they get to Mosul.”
“伊拉克军队有两个保护巴格达的分支，但是对于伊拉克政府来说，有可能把他们调用出来么？”侯赛因先生问道。“并且他们怎么到摩苏尔去呢？如果他么必须经过提克里特和拜伊吉的话，那他们在到达摩苏尔前就要经过路程中的艰难战斗。”
Of course, an anti-Isis offensive has advantages not available last year, such as US air strikes, but these might be difficult to use in a city. The US air force carried out at least 600 air strikes on the Isis-held part of the small Syrian Kurdish city of Kobani before Isis finally retreated after a siege of 134 days. In the most optimistic scenarios Isis splits or there is a popular uprising against it, but so far there is no sign of this and Isis has proved that it exacts merciless vengeance against any individual or community opposed to it.
当然，对IS的进攻有着去年没有的优势，像美空军的空袭，但是这些可能很难用在市区。美国空军在IS经过一百三十四天对叙利亚库尔德人的科巴尼小城市围攻最终撤离前至少往IS所占地区实施了600次空袭。目前最乐观的情况是IS自己分裂或是有大规模的起义来反抗它的统治，但是目前来看没有相关的任何迹象，并且IS也用实际行动证明了它将对反对它的任何组织或个人实行最冷酷无情的报复。
Mr Hussein makes another important point: difficult and dangerous though it may be for the Kurds and the Baghdad government to recapture Mosul, they cannot afford to leave it alone. It was here that Isis won its first great victory and Abu Baqr al-Baghdadi declared the caliphate on 29 June last year.
侯赛因先生抛出了另一个重要观点：即使库尔德人和巴格达政府去夺回摩苏尔是非常困难以及危险的，但是他们不能把它放在一边。这是IS赢得首场大胜利的地方，也是阿布巴克尔巴格达迪在去年六月二十九日宣称这属于伊斯兰王权领土的地方。（译者注：阿布巴克尔巴格达迪是IS的现任首领）
“Mosul is important politically and militarily,” he says. “Without defeating Isis in Mosul, it will be very difficult to talk about the defeat of Isis in the rest of Iraq.”
“摩苏尔在政治和军事上都很重要，”他说道。“没有在摩苏尔击败IS，很难在伊拉克剩下的地区谈打败IS。”
At the moment, Peshmerga forces are only eight miles from Mosul. But Isis fighters are likewise not much further from the Kurdish-held oil city of Kirkuk, which Isis assaulted last month. Given the size of Iraq and the small size of the armies deployed, each side can inflict tactical surprises on the other by punching through scantily held frontlines.
当下，自由斗士的军事力量离摩苏尔只有八英里。但是IS的武装力量同样地离库尔德人占据的石油城市基尔库克也不远，后者上个月刚刚被IS袭击过。考虑到伊拉克地区的尺寸和军事部署的小规模，两边都能通过攻击暴露出来的前线创造战术上的惊喜。
There are two further developments to the advantage of Islamic State. Even in the face of the common threat, the leaders in Baghdad and Erbil remain deeply divided. When Mosul fell last year, the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki claimed that the Iraqi army had been stabbed in the back by a conspiracy between Kurds and Isis. The two sides remain deeply suspicious of each other and, at the start of last week, a delegation led by the Kurdish Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani failed to reach an agreement in Baghdad on how much of Iraq’s oil revenues should go to the Kurds in exchange for a previously agreed quantity of oil from Kurdish-held northern oilfields.
然后对于伊斯兰国进一步来说有两个有利的发展。即使是直面常见的威胁，在巴格达的领导者和在埃尔比勒的领导者仍旧保持着深深的分裂。当去年摩苏尔沦陷时，努里·马利基首相的政府宣称伊拉克的军队被库尔德人和IS之间的阴谋从背后捅了一刀。两边的人仍对另一边保留着深深的怀疑，并且就在上周开始，库尔德地区总理巴尔尼授意的一项与巴格达地区的协议宣告失败，协议以库尔德掌管的北部油田里之前答应的原油数量换取多少伊拉克的石油收入应划入库尔德地区为内容。
“Unbelievably, the divisions now are as great as under Maliki,” says Dr Othman. Islamic State has made many enemies, but it may be saved by their inability to unite.
“无法相信地，这个分裂闹得像马利基所言那样大，”奥斯曼博士说。伊斯兰国树立了许多敌人，但由于这些敌人无法联合，保住了伊斯兰国的小命。
Patrick Cockburn is the author of The Rise of Islamic State: Isis and the New Sunni Revolution (Verso)
（注）：帕特里克·克伯恩是“伊斯兰国的崛起：IS和新逊尼派的革命”的作者原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com
论坛地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-336324-1-1.html
Isis has made many enemies, but it may be saved by their inability to unite
ISIS树立了许多敌人，但他们无法联合复仇
Exclusive: In Irbil, Patrick Cockburn hears from a Kurdish official how Gulf oil cash is shoring up the terrorists, and why this, with a divided enemy, suggests a long war ahead
独家：在埃尔比勒，独立报记者帕特里克·克伯恩从一名库尔德官员那儿得知海湾石油的现金是怎样支持到恐怖分子的，并且为什么有着不同的敌人的他们，暗示着未来有着长期的战争。
Islamic State is still receiving significant financial support from Arab sympathisers outside Iraq and Syria, enabling it to expand its war effort, says a senior Kurdish official.
伊斯兰国仍然在接受来自伊拉克和叙利亚的阿拉伯支持者们巨大的财政支援，使得它能扩大战争支出，一名库尔德的高级官员说。
译文来源:龙腾网 HTTP://WWW.LTAAA.COM
The US has being trying to stop such private donors in the Gulf oil states sending to Islamic State (Isis) funds that help pay the salaries of fighters who may number well over 100,000.
美国一直在尝试遏制海湾国家对伊斯兰国提供的私人资助，这些资助帮助提供了超过十万伊斯兰国的战士的薪水。
Fuad Hussein, the chief of staff of the Kurdish President, Massoud Barzani, told The Independent on Sunday: “There is sympathy for Da’esh [the Arabic acronym for IS, also known as Isis] in many Arab countries and this has translated into money – and that is a disaster.” He pointed out that until recently financial aid was being given more or less openly by Gulf states to the opposition in Syria – but by now most of these rebel groups have been absorbed into IS and Jabhat al-Nusra, the al-Qaeda affiliate, so it is they “who now have the money and the weapons”.
法埃德 侯赛因，库尔德总统马苏德·巴尔扎尼的幕僚长，在周日时告诉独立报记者：“在很多阿拉伯国家对‘达拉’（对IS的阿拉伯缩写，也作为Isis）存有同情的心理，然后这种心理转化成了资助的金钱——这简直是一场灾难。”他指出直到近期，来自海湾国家的资助都是半公开地给予叙利亚的反对派——但是最近大多数的反抗组织都被吸收进了伊斯兰国和基地组织的分支，叙利亚胜利战线组织。所以现在都是他们拿着钱和武器。”
Mr Hussein would not identify the states from which the funding for IS comes today, but implied that they were the same Gulf oil states that financed Sunni Arab rebels in Iraq and Syria in the past.
侯赛因先生今天不愿意指认那些资助伊斯兰国的国家，但是暗示到他们过去也是资助伊拉克和叙利亚的逊尼派阿拉伯叛乱分子的海湾石油国家。
Dr Mahmoud Othman, a veteran member of the Iraqi Kurdish leadership who recently retired from the Iraqi parliament, said there was a misunderstanding as to why Gulf countries paid off IS. It is not only that donors are supporters of IS, but that the movement “gets money from the Arab countries because they are afraid of it”, he says. “Gulf countries give money to Da’esh so that it promises not to carry out operations on their territory.”
马哈茂德 奥瑟曼博士，伊拉克库尔德领导班子的一名资深成员，最近刚从伊拉克议会中退任，说到对于为什么海湾国家为IS买单外界有误解。不止是那些资助者是IS的支援人，并且组织活动“还从那些怕他们的阿拉伯国家里收钱”，他说道。“海湾国家给IS钱所以他们承诺不在他们的领土内执行组织活动。”
Iraqi leaders in Baghdad privately express similar suspicions that IS – with a territory the size of Great Britain and a population of six million fighting a war on multiple fronts, from Aleppo to the Iranian border – could not be financially self-sufficient, given the calls on its limited resources.
在巴格达的伊拉克领导人也私底下表达了类似的怀疑——伊斯兰国，一个只有英国领土大小和六百万人口的地方在多个战场进行战争，从阿勒颇到伊朗边境，考虑到它有限的资源，不可能在经济上自给自足。
Islamic State is doing everything it can to expand its military capacity, as the Iraqi Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi, and the US Central Command (CentCom) threaten an offensive later this year to recapture Mosul. Regardless of the feasibility of this operation, IS forces are fighting in widely different locations across northern and central Iraq.
伊斯兰国在竭尽所能地扩大军事能力，由于伊拉克的总理，海德阿巴迪，和美国中央司令部（以下缩写为“美司”）攻击威胁到在今年年末时夺回摩苏尔。不论这次行动的可行性，伊斯兰国武装在横跨北边和中央伊拉克的大范围地区进行着战争。
Isis areas gained and lost
伊斯兰国得到和失去的地区
On Tuesday night they made a surprise attack with between 300 and 400 fighters, many of them North Africans from Tunisia, Algeria and Libya, on Kurdish forces 40 miles west of the Kurdish capital, Irbil. The Kurds say that 34 IS fighters were killed in fighting and by US air strikes. At the same time, IS was battling for control of the town of al-Baghdadi, several hundred miles away in Anbar province. Despite forecasts by a CentCom spokesman last week that the tide has turned and that IS is on the retreat there is little sign of this on the ground.
在周二晚他们进行了一次300到400人之间的突袭，他们中很多北非人来自突尼斯、阿尔及利亚和利比亚，在库尔德首都埃尔比勒西部四十英里的库尔德武装的地方。库尔德人说美国空军空袭和当地的战斗消灭了34名伊斯兰国武装分子。同时，IS为了掌握巴格达迪的一个城镇而战斗，在安巴省几百英里的地方。尽管中央司令部发言人上周预测到局势已经转变了，伊斯兰国已经在撤退，但在战争发生地几乎还没有这种迹象。
On the contrary, IS appears to have the human and financial resources to fight a long war, though both are under strain. According to interviews by The Independent with people living in Mosul reached by phone, or with recent refugees from the city, IS officials are conscripting at least one young man from every family in Mosul, which has a population of 1.5 million. It has drafted a list of draconian punishments for those not willing to fight, starting with 80 lashes and ending with execution.
相对的，IS似乎是有着人力和财力资源去进行一场长期的战争，尽管双边都处在紧张局势之下。根据独立报对在摩苏尔生活的人民的电话采访，或者从最近城市的难民来看，IS的官员从拥有150万人口的摩苏尔每个家庭至少征召一名年轻人。它对于那些不愿意战斗的年轻人已经起草了一份严厉的惩罚措施方法，从80鞭罚到直接处决。
All these new recruits receive pay, as well as their keep, which until recently was $500 (￡324) a month but has now been cut to about $350. Officers and commanders receive much more. A local source, who did not want to be named, says that foreign fighters, of whom there are an estimated 20,000 in IS, get a much higher salary – starting at $800 a month.
所有的这些招募的新兵都有工资，他们自己保存，从之前的每个月500美元（324英镑）到现在缩减到350美元。官员和司令官收到的多得多。一个当地的不愿提及名字的信息源说外国的战士，在IS内大约有两万名，拿更高的薪金——从800美元每月起。
Fuad Hussein, chief of staff to Kurdish President Massoud Barzani (EPA)
法埃德侯赛因，库尔德总统马苏德·巴尔扎尼的幕僚长（EPA）
“I know three foreign fighters,” said Ahmad, a 45-year-old shopkeeper still working in Mosul. “I usually see them at checkpoints in our neighbourhood: one is Turkish and the others are Europeans. Some of them speak a little Arabic. I know them well because they buy soft drinks from the shops in our neighbourhood. The Turkish one is my customer. He says he talks to his family using the satellite internet service that is available for the foreigners, who have excellent privileges in terms of salaries, spoils and even captives.”
“我知道三个外国的战士，”艾哈迈德说，一个仍然在摩苏尔工作的45岁小店店主。“我通常在邻里的检查点看见他们：一个是土耳其人，另外的是欧洲人。他们中的一些会说一点阿拉伯语。我跟他们还比较熟因为他们经常在我们这片儿的店里买饮料。土耳其人是我的顾客。他说他通过外国人能用的卫星网络服务和家人通话，他们在薪金上，战利品以及俘虏上都有额外的特权。”
Ahmad added: “Isis fighters have arrested four high-school teachers for telling their students not to join Isis.” Islamic State fighters have entered the schools and demanded that students in their final year join them. Isis has also lowered the conscription age below 18 years of age, leading some families to leave the city. Military bases for the training and arming of children have also been established.
艾哈迈德补充到：“Isis 战士还抓捕了我们的高中老师，因为他们告诉学生们不要加入IS。”伊斯兰国的武装分子还进入的学校并且要求他们在学习的最后一年加入他们。IS还把征兵的年龄要求降到18岁以下，迫使一些家庭离开城市。一些为了训练和武装儿童的军事基地也被建立起来了。
Given this degree of mobilisation by Islamic State, statements from Mr Abadi and CentCom about recapturing Mosul this spring, using between 20,000 and 25,000 Baghdad government and Kurdish forces, sound like an effort to boost morale on the anti-Isis side.
考虑到伊斯兰国动员的程度，阿巴迪先生和美司令部关于这个春天夺回摩苏尔的声明，用两万到两万五的巴格达政府军和库德尔武装，听起来只像为了在反IS阵营里鼓舞士气的努力。
The CentCom spokesman claimed there were only between 1,000 and 2,000 Isis fighters in Mosul, which is out of keeping with what local observers report. Ominously, Iraqi and foreign governments have an impressive record of underestimating Isis as a military and political force over the past two years.
美司令部发言人宣称在摩苏尔只有1千到两千的IS武装者，这与当地观察员的报告的数量并不相符。不吉利地，伊拉克和外国政府在过去的两年间对于低估IS作为军事力量和政府武装有着印象深刻的记录。（损失惨重）
Mr Hussein said at the end of last year that Isis had “hundreds of thousands of fighters”, at a time when the CIA was claiming they numbered between 20,000 and 31,500. He does not wholly rule out an offensive to take Mosul but, as he outlines the conditions for a successful attack, it becomes clear that he does not expect the city to be recaptured any time soon. For the Kurdish Peshmerga forces to storm Mosul they would need far better equipment “in order to wage a decisive war against Isis and defeat them”, he says. “So far we are only defeating them in various places in Kurdistan by giving our blood. We have had 1,011 Peshmerga killed and about 5,000 wounded.”
侯赛因先生去年年底时说，IS有着“成百上千的战士”，在CIA宣称他们有两万到三万一千五人数时。他不完全排除攻击占下摩苏尔的计划，但是当他规划一场胜利的攻击情况时，很明显他并不想要这座城市很快再被争夺回去。因为库德尔自由武装突袭摩苏尔时他们需要更好的装备“去进行一场对IS的决定性战斗并打败他们”，他说道。“目前为止我们通过流血牺牲只在库尔德斯坦的一些地方击败过他们。我们有1011位自由斗士牺牲，有约5000名战士受伤。”
The Kurds want heavy weapons including Humvees, tanks to surround but not to enter Mosul, snipers’ rifles, because Isis has many highly accurate snipers, as well as equipment to deal with improvised explosive devices and booby traps, both of which Isis uses profusely.
库尔德人想要一些重武器，包括运输车、去包围摩苏尔而不是进入摩苏尔的坦克、狙击手步枪，因为IS有许多精准的狙击手，还有一些针对IS经常使用的简易爆炸装置和诡雷的设备。
Above all, Kurdish participation in an offensive would require a military partner in the shape of an effective Iraqi army and local Sunni allies. Without the latter, a battle for Mosul conducted by Shia and Kurds alone would provoke Sunni Arab resistance. Mr Hussein is dubious about the effectiveness of the Iraqi army, which disintegrated last June when, though nominally it had 350,000 soldiers, it was defeated by a few thousand Isis fighters.
首先，库尔德人实施进攻需要一个有效的类似于伊拉克军队和当地逊尼派组织的军事伙伴。没有后者，单单是什叶派和库尔德人对摩苏尔进攻的话会激起逊尼派阿拉伯人的抵抗。侯赛因先生对伊拉克军队的效率比较怀疑，它在去年六月时衰退了，当它尽管名义上有三十五万名士兵时，被IS几千人的武装力量打败。
Pro-Islamic State demonstrators in front of the provincial government headquarters in Mosul (EPA)
支持伊斯兰国的示威者，在摩苏尔的省政府总部门前（EPA）
“The Iraqi army has two divisions to protect Baghdad, but is it possible for the Iraqi government to release them?” asks Mr Hussein. “And how will they get to Mosul? If they have to come through Tikrit and Baiji, they will have to fight hard along the way even before they get to Mosul.”
“伊拉克军队有两个保护巴格达的分支，但是对于伊拉克政府来说，有可能把他们调用出来么？”侯赛因先生问道。“并且他们怎么到摩苏尔去呢？如果他么必须经过提克里特和拜伊吉的话，那他们在到达摩苏尔前就要经过路程中的艰难战斗。”
Of course, an anti-Isis offensive has advantages not available last year, such as US air strikes, but these might be difficult to use in a city. The US air force carried out at least 600 air strikes on the Isis-held part of the small Syrian Kurdish city of Kobani before Isis finally retreated after a siege of 134 days. In the most optimistic scenarios Isis splits or there is a popular uprising against it, but so far there is no sign of this and Isis has proved that it exacts merciless vengeance against any individual or community opposed to it.
当然，对IS的进攻有着去年没有的优势，像美空军的空袭，但是这些可能很难用在市区。美国空军在IS经过一百三十四天对叙利亚库尔德人的科巴尼小城市围攻最终撤离前至少往IS所占地区实施了600次空袭。目前最乐观的情况是IS自己分裂或是有大规模的起义来反抗它的统治，但是目前来看没有相关的任何迹象，并且IS也用实际行动证明了它将对反对它的任何组织或个人实行最冷酷无情的报复。
Mr Hussein makes another important point: difficult and dangerous though it may be for the Kurds and the Baghdad government to recapture Mosul, they cannot afford to leave it alone. It was here that Isis won its first great victory and Abu Baqr al-Baghdadi declared the caliphate on 29 June last year.
侯赛因先生抛出了另一个重要观点：即使库尔德人和巴格达政府去夺回摩苏尔是非常困难以及危险的，但是他们不能把它放在一边。这是IS赢得首场大胜利的地方，也是阿布巴克尔巴格达迪在去年六月二十九日宣称这属于伊斯兰王权领土的地方。（译者注：阿布巴克尔巴格达迪是IS的现任首领）
“Mosul is important politically and militarily,” he says. “Without defeating Isis in Mosul, it will be very difficult to talk about the defeat of Isis in the rest of Iraq.”
“摩苏尔在政治和军事上都很重要，”他说道。“没有在摩苏尔击败IS，很难在伊拉克剩下的地区谈打败IS。”
At the moment, Peshmerga forces are only eight miles from Mosul. But Isis fighters are likewise not much further from the Kurdish-held oil city of Kirkuk, which Isis assaulted last month. Given the size of Iraq and the small size of the armies deployed, each side can inflict tactical surprises on the other by punching through scantily held frontlines.
当下，自由斗士的军事力量离摩苏尔只有八英里。但是IS的武装力量同样地离库尔德人占据的石油城市基尔库克也不远，后者上个月刚刚被IS袭击过。考虑到伊拉克地区的尺寸和军事部署的小规模，两边都能通过攻击暴露出来的前线创造战术上的惊喜。
There are two further developments to the advantage of Islamic State. Even in the face of the common threat, the leaders in Baghdad and Erbil remain deeply divided. When Mosul fell last year, the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki claimed that the Iraqi army had been stabbed in the back by a conspiracy between Kurds and Isis. The two sides remain deeply suspicious of each other and, at the start of last week, a delegation led by the Kurdish Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani failed to reach an agreement in Baghdad on how much of Iraq’s oil revenues should go to the Kurds in exchange for a previously agreed quantity of oil from Kurdish-held northern oilfields.
然后对于伊斯兰国进一步来说有两个有利的发展。即使是直面常见的威胁，在巴格达的领导者和在埃尔比勒的领导者仍旧保持着深深的分裂。当去年摩苏尔沦陷时，努里·马利基首相的政府宣称伊拉克的军队被库尔德人和IS之间的阴谋从背后捅了一刀。两边的人仍对另一边保留着深深的怀疑，并且就在上周开始，库尔德地区总理巴尔尼授意的一项与巴格达地区的协议宣告失败，协议以库尔德掌管的北部油田里之前答应的原油数量换取多少伊拉克的石油收入应划入库尔德地区为内容。
“Unbelievably, the divisions now are as great as under Maliki,” says Dr Othman. Islamic State has made many enemies, but it may be saved by their inability to unite.
“无法相信地，这个分裂闹得像马利基所言那样大，”奥斯曼博士说。伊斯兰国树立了许多敌人，但由于这些敌人无法联合，保住了伊斯兰国的小命。
Patrick Cockburn is the author of The Rise of Islamic State: Isis and the New Sunni Revolution (Verso)
（注）：帕特里克·克伯恩是“伊斯兰国的崛起：IS和新逊尼派的革命”的作者
论坛地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-336324-1-1.html
Isis has made many enemies, but it may be saved by their inability to unite
ISIS树立了许多敌人，但他们无法联合复仇
Exclusive: In Irbil, Patrick Cockburn hears from a Kurdish official how Gulf oil cash is shoring up the terrorists, and why this, with a divided enemy, suggests a long war ahead
独家：在埃尔比勒，独立报记者帕特里克·克伯恩从一名库尔德官员那儿得知海湾石油的现金是怎样支持到恐怖分子的，并且为什么有着不同的敌人的他们，暗示着未来有着长期的战争。
Islamic State is still receiving significant financial support from Arab sympathisers outside Iraq and Syria, enabling it to expand its war effort, says a senior Kurdish official.
伊斯兰国仍然在接受来自伊拉克和叙利亚的阿拉伯支持者们巨大的财政支援，使得它能扩大战争支出，一名库尔德的高级官员说。
译文来源:龙腾网 HTTP://WWW.LTAAA.COM
The US has being trying to stop such private donors in the Gulf oil states sending to Islamic State (Isis) funds that help pay the salaries of fighters who may number well over 100,000.
美国一直在尝试遏制海湾国家对伊斯兰国提供的私人资助，这些资助帮助提供了超过十万伊斯兰国的战士的薪水。
Fuad Hussein, the chief of staff of the Kurdish President, Massoud Barzani, told The Independent on Sunday: “There is sympathy for Da’esh [the Arabic acronym for IS, also known as Isis] in many Arab countries and this has translated into money – and that is a disaster.” He pointed out that until recently financial aid was being given more or less openly by Gulf states to the opposition in Syria – but by now most of these rebel groups have been absorbed into IS and Jabhat al-Nusra, the al-Qaeda affiliate, so it is they “who now have the money and the weapons”.
法埃德 侯赛因，库尔德总统马苏德·巴尔扎尼的幕僚长，在周日时告诉独立报记者：“在很多阿拉伯国家对‘达拉’（对IS的阿拉伯缩写，也作为Isis）存有同情的心理，然后这种心理转化成了资助的金钱——这简直是一场灾难。”他指出直到近期，来自海湾国家的资助都是半公开地给予叙利亚的反对派——但是最近大多数的反抗组织都被吸收进了伊斯兰国和基地组织的分支，叙利亚胜利战线组织。所以现在都是他们拿着钱和武器。”
Mr Hussein would not identify the states from which the funding for IS comes today, but implied that they were the same Gulf oil states that financed Sunni Arab rebels in Iraq and Syria in the past.
侯赛因先生今天不愿意指认那些资助伊斯兰国的国家，但是暗示到他们过去也是资助伊拉克和叙利亚的逊尼派阿拉伯叛乱分子的海湾石油国家。
Dr Mahmoud Othman, a veteran member of the Iraqi Kurdish leadership who recently retired from the Iraqi parliament, said there was a misunderstanding as to why Gulf countries paid off IS. It is not only that donors are supporters of IS, but that the movement “gets money from the Arab countries because they are afraid of it”, he says. “Gulf countries give money to Da’esh so that it promises not to carry out operations on their territory.”
马哈茂德 奥瑟曼博士，伊拉克库尔德领导班子的一名资深成员，最近刚从伊拉克议会中退任，说到对于为什么海湾国家为IS买单外界有误解。不止是那些资助者是IS的支援人，并且组织活动“还从那些怕他们的阿拉伯国家里收钱”，他说道。“海湾国家给IS钱所以他们承诺不在他们的领土内执行组织活动。”
Iraqi leaders in Baghdad privately express similar suspicions that IS – with a territory the size of Great Britain and a population of six million fighting a war on multiple fronts, from Aleppo to the Iranian border – could not be financially self-sufficient, given the calls on its limited resources.
在巴格达的伊拉克领导人也私底下表达了类似的怀疑——伊斯兰国，一个只有英国领土大小和六百万人口的地方在多个战场进行战争，从阿勒颇到伊朗边境，考虑到它有限的资源，不可能在经济上自给自足。
Islamic State is doing everything it can to expand its military capacity, as the Iraqi Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi, and the US Central Command (CentCom) threaten an offensive later this year to recapture Mosul. Regardless of the feasibility of this operation, IS forces are fighting in widely different locations across northern and central Iraq.
伊斯兰国在竭尽所能地扩大军事能力，由于伊拉克的总理，海德阿巴迪，和美国中央司令部（以下缩写为“美司”）攻击威胁到在今年年末时夺回摩苏尔。不论这次行动的可行性，伊斯兰国武装在横跨北边和中央伊拉克的大范围地区进行着战争。
Isis areas gained and lost
伊斯兰国得到和失去的地区
On Tuesday night they made a surprise attack with between 300 and 400 fighters, many of them North Africans from Tunisia, Algeria and Libya, on Kurdish forces 40 miles west of the Kurdish capital, Irbil. The Kurds say that 34 IS fighters were killed in fighting and by US air strikes. At the same time, IS was battling for control of the town of al-Baghdadi, several hundred miles away in Anbar province. Despite forecasts by a CentCom spokesman last week that the tide has turned and that IS is on the retreat there is little sign of this on the ground.
在周二晚他们进行了一次300到400人之间的突袭，他们中很多北非人来自突尼斯、阿尔及利亚和利比亚，在库尔德首都埃尔比勒西部四十英里的库尔德武装的地方。库尔德人说美国空军空袭和当地的战斗消灭了34名伊斯兰国武装分子。同时，IS为了掌握巴格达迪的一个城镇而战斗，在安巴省几百英里的地方。尽管中央司令部发言人上周预测到局势已经转变了，伊斯兰国已经在撤退，但在战争发生地几乎还没有这种迹象。
On the contrary, IS appears to have the human and financial resources to fight a long war, though both are under strain. According to interviews by The Independent with people living in Mosul reached by phone, or with recent refugees from the city, IS officials are conscripting at least one young man from every family in Mosul, which has a population of 1.5 million. It has drafted a list of draconian punishments for those not willing to fight, starting with 80 lashes and ending with execution.
相对的，IS似乎是有着人力和财力资源去进行一场长期的战争，尽管双边都处在紧张局势之下。根据独立报对在摩苏尔生活的人民的电话采访，或者从最近城市的难民来看，IS的官员从拥有150万人口的摩苏尔每个家庭至少征召一名年轻人。它对于那些不愿意战斗的年轻人已经起草了一份严厉的惩罚措施方法，从80鞭罚到直接处决。
All these new recruits receive pay, as well as their keep, which until recently was $500 (￡324) a month but has now been cut to about $350. Officers and commanders receive much more. A local source, who did not want to be named, says that foreign fighters, of whom there are an estimated 20,000 in IS, get a much higher salary – starting at $800 a month.
所有的这些招募的新兵都有工资，他们自己保存，从之前的每个月500美元（324英镑）到现在缩减到350美元。官员和司令官收到的多得多。一个当地的不愿提及名字的信息源说外国的战士，在IS内大约有两万名，拿更高的薪金——从800美元每月起。
Fuad Hussein, chief of staff to Kurdish President Massoud Barzani (EPA)
法埃德侯赛因，库尔德总统马苏德·巴尔扎尼的幕僚长（EPA）
“I know three foreign fighters,” said Ahmad, a 45-year-old shopkeeper still working in Mosul. “I usually see them at checkpoints in our neighbourhood: one is Turkish and the others are Europeans. Some of them speak a little Arabic. I know them well because they buy soft drinks from the shops in our neighbourhood. The Turkish one is my customer. He says he talks to his family using the satellite internet service that is available for the foreigners, who have excellent privileges in terms of salaries, spoils and even captives.”
“我知道三个外国的战士，”艾哈迈德说，一个仍然在摩苏尔工作的45岁小店店主。“我通常在邻里的检查点看见他们：一个是土耳其人，另外的是欧洲人。他们中的一些会说一点阿拉伯语。我跟他们还比较熟因为他们经常在我们这片儿的店里买饮料。土耳其人是我的顾客。他说他通过外国人能用的卫星网络服务和家人通话，他们在薪金上，战利品以及俘虏上都有额外的特权。”
Ahmad added: “Isis fighters have arrested four high-school teachers for telling their students not to join Isis.” Islamic State fighters have entered the schools and demanded that students in their final year join them. Isis has also lowered the conscription age below 18 years of age, leading some families to leave the city. Military bases for the training and arming of children have also been established.
艾哈迈德补充到：“Isis 战士还抓捕了我们的高中老师，因为他们告诉学生们不要加入IS。”伊斯兰国的武装分子还进入的学校并且要求他们在学习的最后一年加入他们。IS还把征兵的年龄要求降到18岁以下，迫使一些家庭离开城市。一些为了训练和武装儿童的军事基地也被建立起来了。
Given this degree of mobilisation by Islamic State, statements from Mr Abadi and CentCom about recapturing Mosul this spring, using between 20,000 and 25,000 Baghdad government and Kurdish forces, sound like an effort to boost morale on the anti-Isis side.
考虑到伊斯兰国动员的程度，阿巴迪先生和美司令部关于这个春天夺回摩苏尔的声明，用两万到两万五的巴格达政府军和库德尔武装，听起来只像为了在反IS阵营里鼓舞士气的努力。
The CentCom spokesman claimed there were only between 1,000 and 2,000 Isis fighters in Mosul, which is out of keeping with what local observers report. Ominously, Iraqi and foreign governments have an impressive record of underestimating Isis as a military and political force over the past two years.
美司令部发言人宣称在摩苏尔只有1千到两千的IS武装者，这与当地观察员的报告的数量并不相符。不吉利地，伊拉克和外国政府在过去的两年间对于低估IS作为军事力量和政府武装有着印象深刻的记录。（损失惨重）
Mr Hussein said at the end of last year that Isis had “hundreds of thousands of fighters”, at a time when the CIA was claiming they numbered between 20,000 and 31,500. He does not wholly rule out an offensive to take Mosul but, as he outlines the conditions for a successful attack, it becomes clear that he does not expect the city to be recaptured any time soon. For the Kurdish Peshmerga forces to storm Mosul they would need far better equipment “in order to wage a decisive war against Isis and defeat them”, he says. “So far we are only defeating them in various places in Kurdistan by giving our blood. We have had 1,011 Peshmerga killed and about 5,000 wounded.”
侯赛因先生去年年底时说，IS有着“成百上千的战士”，在CIA宣称他们有两万到三万一千五人数时。他不完全排除攻击占下摩苏尔的计划，但是当他规划一场胜利的攻击情况时，很明显他并不想要这座城市很快再被争夺回去。因为库德尔自由武装突袭摩苏尔时他们需要更好的装备“去进行一场对IS的决定性战斗并打败他们”，他说道。“目前为止我们通过流血牺牲只在库尔德斯坦的一些地方击败过他们。我们有1011位自由斗士牺牲，有约5000名战士受伤。”
The Kurds want heavy weapons including Humvees, tanks to surround but not to enter Mosul, snipers’ rifles, because Isis has many highly accurate snipers, as well as equipment to deal with improvised explosive devices and booby traps, both of which Isis uses profusely.
库尔德人想要一些重武器，包括运输车、去包围摩苏尔而不是进入摩苏尔的坦克、狙击手步枪，因为IS有许多精准的狙击手，还有一些针对IS经常使用的简易爆炸装置和诡雷的设备。
Above all, Kurdish participation in an offensive would require a military partner in the shape of an effective Iraqi army and local Sunni allies. Without the latter, a battle for Mosul conducted by Shia and Kurds alone would provoke Sunni Arab resistance. Mr Hussein is dubious about the effectiveness of the Iraqi army, which disintegrated last June when, though nominally it had 350,000 soldiers, it was defeated by a few thousand Isis fighters.
首先，库尔德人实施进攻需要一个有效的类似于伊拉克军队和当地逊尼派组织的军事伙伴。没有后者，单单是什叶派和库尔德人对摩苏尔进攻的话会激起逊尼派阿拉伯人的抵抗。侯赛因先生对伊拉克军队的效率比较怀疑，它在去年六月时衰退了，当它尽管名义上有三十五万名士兵时，被IS几千人的武装力量打败。
Pro-Islamic State demonstrators in front of the provincial government headquarters in Mosul (EPA)
支持伊斯兰国的示威者，在摩苏尔的省政府总部门前（EPA）
“The Iraqi army has two divisions to protect Baghdad, but is it possible for the Iraqi government to release them?” asks Mr Hussein. “And how will they get to Mosul? If they have to come through Tikrit and Baiji, they will have to fight hard along the way even before they get to Mosul.”
“伊拉克军队有两个保护巴格达的分支，但是对于伊拉克政府来说，有可能把他们调用出来么？”侯赛因先生问道。“并且他们怎么到摩苏尔去呢？如果他么必须经过提克里特和拜伊吉的话，那他们在到达摩苏尔前就要经过路程中的艰难战斗。”
Of course, an anti-Isis offensive has advantages not available last year, such as US air strikes, but these might be difficult to use in a city. The US air force carried out at least 600 air strikes on the Isis-held part of the small Syrian Kurdish city of Kobani before Isis finally retreated after a siege of 134 days. In the most optimistic scenarios Isis splits or there is a popular uprising against it, but so far there is no sign of this and Isis has proved that it exacts merciless vengeance against any individual or community opposed to it.
当然，对IS的进攻有着去年没有的优势，像美空军的空袭，但是这些可能很难用在市区。美国空军在IS经过一百三十四天对叙利亚库尔德人的科巴尼小城市围攻最终撤离前至少往IS所占地区实施了600次空袭。目前最乐观的情况是IS自己分裂或是有大规模的起义来反抗它的统治，但是目前来看没有相关的任何迹象，并且IS也用实际行动证明了它将对反对它的任何组织或个人实行最冷酷无情的报复。
Mr Hussein makes another important point: difficult and dangerous though it may be for the Kurds and the Baghdad government to recapture Mosul, they cannot afford to leave it alone. It was here that Isis won its first great victory and Abu Baqr al-Baghdadi declared the caliphate on 29 June last year.
侯赛因先生抛出了另一个重要观点：即使库尔德人和巴格达政府去夺回摩苏尔是非常困难以及危险的，但是他们不能把它放在一边。这是IS赢得首场大胜利的地方，也是阿布巴克尔巴格达迪在去年六月二十九日宣称这属于伊斯兰王权领土的地方。（译者注：阿布巴克尔巴格达迪是IS的现任首领）
“Mosul is important politically and militarily,” he says. “Without defeating Isis in Mosul, it will be very difficult to talk about the defeat of Isis in the rest of Iraq.”
“摩苏尔在政治和军事上都很重要，”他说道。“没有在摩苏尔击败IS，很难在伊拉克剩下的地区谈打败IS。”
At the moment, Peshmerga forces are only eight miles from Mosul. But Isis fighters are likewise not much further from the Kurdish-held oil city of Kirkuk, which Isis assaulted last month. Given the size of Iraq and the small size of the armies deployed, each side can inflict tactical surprises on the other by punching through scantily held frontlines.
当下，自由斗士的军事力量离摩苏尔只有八英里。但是IS的武装力量同样地离库尔德人占据的石油城市基尔库克也不远，后者上个月刚刚被IS袭击过。考虑到伊拉克地区的尺寸和军事部署的小规模，两边都能通过攻击暴露出来的前线创造战术上的惊喜。
There are two further developments to the advantage of Islamic State. Even in the face of the common threat, the leaders in Baghdad and Erbil remain deeply divided. When Mosul fell last year, the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki claimed that the Iraqi army had been stabbed in the back by a conspiracy between Kurds and Isis. The two sides remain deeply suspicious of each other and, at the start of last week, a delegation led by the Kurdish Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani failed to reach an agreement in Baghdad on how much of Iraq’s oil revenues should go to the Kurds in exchange for a previously agreed quantity of oil from Kurdish-held northern oilfields.
然后对于伊斯兰国进一步来说有两个有利的发展。即使是直面常见的威胁，在巴格达的领导者和在埃尔比勒的领导者仍旧保持着深深的分裂。当去年摩苏尔沦陷时，努里·马利基首相的政府宣称伊拉克的军队被库尔德人和IS之间的阴谋从背后捅了一刀。两边的人仍对另一边保留着深深的怀疑，并且就在上周开始，库尔德地区总理巴尔尼授意的一项与巴格达地区的协议宣告失败，协议以库尔德掌管的北部油田里之前答应的原油数量换取多少伊拉克的石油收入应划入库尔德地区为内容。
“Unbelievably, the divisions now are as great as under Maliki,” says Dr Othman. Islamic State has made many enemies, but it may be saved by their inability to unite.
“无法相信地，这个分裂闹得像马利基所言那样大，”奥斯曼博士说。伊斯兰国树立了许多敌人，但由于这些敌人无法联合，保住了伊斯兰国的小命。
Patrick Cockburn is the author of The Rise of Islamic State: Isis and the New Sunni Revolution (Verso)
（注）：帕特里克·克伯恩是“伊斯兰国的崛起：IS和新逊尼派的革命”的作者原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com
论坛地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-336324-1-1.html
Isis has made many enemies, but it may be saved by their inability to unite
ISIS树立了许多敌人，但他们无法联合复仇
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Exclusive: In Irbil, Patrick Cockburn hears from a Kurdish official how Gulf oil cash is shoring up the terrorists, and why this, with a divided enemy, suggests a long war ahead
独家：在埃尔比勒，独立报记者帕特里克·克伯恩从一名库尔德官员那儿得知海湾石油的现金是怎样支持到恐怖分子的，并且为什么有着不同的敌人的他们，暗示着未来有着长期的战争。
Islamic State is still receiving significant financial support from Arab sympathisers outside Iraq and Syria, enabling it to expand its war effort, says a senior Kurdish official.
伊斯兰国仍然在接受来自伊拉克和叙利亚的阿拉伯支持者们巨大的财政支援，使得它能扩大战争支出，一名库尔德的高级官员说。
译文来源:龙腾网 HTTP://WWW.LTAAA.COM
The US has being trying to stop such private donors in the Gulf oil states sending to Islamic State (Isis) funds that help pay the salaries of fighters who may number well over 100,000.
美国一直在尝试遏制海湾国家对伊斯兰国提供的私人资助，这些资助帮助提供了超过十万伊斯兰国的战士的薪水。
Fuad Hussein, the chief of staff of the Kurdish President, Massoud Barzani, told The Independent on Sunday: “There is sympathy for Da’esh [the Arabic acronym for IS, also known as Isis] in many Arab countries and this has translated into money – and that is a disaster.” He pointed out that until recently financial aid was being given more or less openly by Gulf states to the opposition in Syria – but by now most of these rebel groups have been absorbed into IS and Jabhat al-Nusra, the al-Qaeda affiliate, so it is they “who now have the money and the weapons”.
法埃德 侯赛因，库尔德总统马苏德·巴尔扎尼的幕僚长，在周日时告诉独立报记者：“在很多阿拉伯国家对‘达拉’（对IS的阿拉伯缩写，也作为Isis）存有同情的心理，然后这种心理转化成了资助的金钱——这简直是一场灾难。”他指出直到近期，来自海湾国家的资助都是半公开地给予叙利亚的反对派——但是最近大多数的反抗组织都被吸收进了伊斯兰国和基地组织的分支，叙利亚胜利战线组织。所以现在都是他们拿着钱和武器。”
Mr Hussein would not identify the states from which the funding for IS comes today, but implied that they were the same Gulf oil states that financed Sunni Arab rebels in Iraq and Syria in the past.
侯赛因先生今天不愿意指认那些资助伊斯兰国的国家，但是暗示到他们过去也是资助伊拉克和叙利亚的逊尼派阿拉伯叛乱分子的海湾石油国家。
Dr Mahmoud Othman, a veteran member of the Iraqi Kurdish leadership who recently retired from the Iraqi parliament, said there was a misunderstanding as to why Gulf countries paid off IS. It is not only that donors are supporters of IS, but that the movement “gets money from the Arab countries because they are afraid of it”, he says. “Gulf countries give money to Da’esh so that it promises not to carry out operations on their territory.”
马哈茂德 奥瑟曼博士，伊拉克库尔德领导班子的一名资深成员，最近刚从伊拉克议会中退任，说到对于为什么海湾国家为IS买单外界有误解。不止是那些资助者是IS的支援人，并且组织活动“还从那些怕他们的阿拉伯国家里收钱”，他说道。“海湾国家给IS钱所以他们承诺不在他们的领土内执行组织活动。”
Iraqi leaders in Baghdad privately express similar suspicions that IS – with a territory the size of Great Britain and a population of six million fighting a war on multiple fronts, from Aleppo to the Iranian border – could not be financially self-sufficient, given the calls on its limited resources.
在巴格达的伊拉克领导人也私底下表达了类似的怀疑——伊斯兰国，一个只有英国领土大小和六百万人口的地方在多个战场进行战争，从阿勒颇到伊朗边境，考虑到它有限的资源，不可能在经济上自给自足。
Islamic State is doing everything it can to expand its military capacity, as the Iraqi Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi, and the US Central Command (CentCom) threaten an offensive later this year to recapture Mosul. Regardless of the feasibility of this operation, IS forces are fighting in widely different locations across northern and central Iraq.
伊斯兰国在竭尽所能地扩大军事能力，由于伊拉克的总理，海德阿巴迪，和美国中央司令部（以下缩写为“美司”）攻击威胁到在今年年末时夺回摩苏尔。不论这次行动的可行性，伊斯兰国武装在横跨北边和中央伊拉克的大范围地区进行着战争。
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Isis areas gained and lost
伊斯兰国得到和失去的地区
On Tuesday night they made a surprise attack with between 300 and 400 fighters, many of them North Africans from Tunisia, Algeria and Libya, on Kurdish forces 40 miles west of the Kurdish capital, Irbil. The Kurds say that 34 IS fighters were killed in fighting and by US air strikes. At the same time, IS was battling for control of the town of al-Baghdadi, several hundred miles away in Anbar province. Despite forecasts by a CentCom spokesman last week that the tide has turned and that IS is on the retreat there is little sign of this on the ground.
在周二晚他们进行了一次300到400人之间的突袭，他们中很多北非人来自突尼斯、阿尔及利亚和利比亚，在库尔德首都埃尔比勒西部四十英里的库尔德武装的地方。库尔德人说美国空军空袭和当地的战斗消灭了34名伊斯兰国武装分子。同时，IS为了掌握巴格达迪的一个城镇而战斗，在安巴省几百英里的地方。尽管中央司令部发言人上周预测到局势已经转变了，伊斯兰国已经在撤退，但在战争发生地几乎还没有这种迹象。
On the contrary, IS appears to have the human and financial resources to fight a long war, though both are under strain. According to interviews by The Independent with people living in Mosul reached by phone, or with recent refugees from the city, IS officials are conscripting at least one young man from every family in Mosul, which has a population of 1.5 million. It has drafted a list of draconian punishments for those not willing to fight, starting with 80 lashes and ending with execution.
相对的，IS似乎是有着人力和财力资源去进行一场长期的战争，尽管双边都处在紧张局势之下。根据独立报对在摩苏尔生活的人民的电话采访，或者从最近城市的难民来看，IS的官员从拥有150万人口的摩苏尔每个家庭至少征召一名年轻人。它对于那些不愿意战斗的年轻人已经起草了一份严厉的惩罚措施方法，从80鞭罚到直接处决。
All these new recruits receive pay, as well as their keep, which until recently was $500 (￡324) a month but has now been cut to about $350. Officers and commanders receive much more. A local source, who did not want to be named, says that foreign fighters, of whom there are an estimated 20,000 in IS, get a much higher salary – starting at $800 a month.
所有的这些招募的新兵都有工资，他们自己保存，从之前的每个月500美元（324英镑）到现在缩减到350美元。官员和司令官收到的多得多。一个当地的不愿提及名字的信息源说外国的战士，在IS内大约有两万名，拿更高的薪金——从800美元每月起。
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Fuad Hussein, chief of staff to Kurdish President Massoud Barzani (EPA)
法埃德侯赛因，库尔德总统马苏德·巴尔扎尼的幕僚长（EPA）
“I know three foreign fighters,” said Ahmad, a 45-year-old shopkeeper still working in Mosul. “I usually see them at checkpoints in our neighbourhood: one is Turkish and the others are Europeans. Some of them speak a little Arabic. I know them well because they buy soft drinks from the shops in our neighbourhood. The Turkish one is my customer. He says he talks to his family using the satellite internet service that is available for the foreigners, who have excellent privileges in terms of salaries, spoils and even captives.”
“我知道三个外国的战士，”艾哈迈德说，一个仍然在摩苏尔工作的45岁小店店主。“我通常在邻里的检查点看见他们：一个是土耳其人，另外的是欧洲人。他们中的一些会说一点阿拉伯语。我跟他们还比较熟因为他们经常在我们这片儿的店里买饮料。土耳其人是我的顾客。他说他通过外国人能用的卫星网络服务和家人通话，他们在薪金上，战利品以及俘虏上都有额外的特权。”
Ahmad added: “Isis fighters have arrested four high-school teachers for telling their students not to join Isis.” Islamic State fighters have entered the schools and demanded that students in their final year join them. Isis has also lowered the conscription age below 18 years of age, leading some families to leave the city. Military bases for the training and arming of children have also been established.
艾哈迈德补充到：“Isis 战士还抓捕了我们的高中老师，因为他们告诉学生们不要加入IS。”伊斯兰国的武装分子还进入的学校并且要求他们在学习的最后一年加入他们。IS还把征兵的年龄要求降到18岁以下，迫使一些家庭离开城市。一些为了训练和武装儿童的军事基地也被建立起来了。
Given this degree of mobilisation by Islamic State, statements from Mr Abadi and CentCom about recapturing Mosul this spring, using between 20,000 and 25,000 Baghdad government and Kurdish forces, sound like an effort to boost morale on the anti-Isis side.
考虑到伊斯兰国动员的程度，阿巴迪先生和美司令部关于这个春天夺回摩苏尔的声明，用两万到两万五的巴格达政府军和库德尔武装，听起来只像为了在反IS阵营里鼓舞士气的努力。
The CentCom spokesman claimed there were only between 1,000 and 2,000 Isis fighters in Mosul, which is out of keeping with what local observers report. Ominously, Iraqi and foreign governments have an impressive record of underestimating Isis as a military and political force over the past two years.
美司令部发言人宣称在摩苏尔只有1千到两千的IS武装者，这与当地观察员的报告的数量并不相符。不吉利地，伊拉克和外国政府在过去的两年间对于低估IS作为军事力量和政府武装有着印象深刻的记录。（损失惨重）
Mr Hussein said at the end of last year that Isis had “hundreds of thousands of fighters”, at a time when the CIA was claiming they numbered between 20,000 and 31,500. He does not wholly rule out an offensive to take Mosul but, as he outlines the conditions for a successful attack, it becomes clear that he does not expect the city to be recaptured any time soon. For the Kurdish Peshmerga forces to storm Mosul they would need far better equipment “in order to wage a decisive war against Isis and defeat them”, he says. “So far we are only defeating them in various places in Kurdistan by giving our blood. We have had 1,011 Peshmerga killed and about 5,000 wounded.”
侯赛因先生去年年底时说，IS有着“成百上千的战士”，在CIA宣称他们有两万到三万一千五人数时。他不完全排除攻击占下摩苏尔的计划，但是当他规划一场胜利的攻击情况时，很明显他并不想要这座城市很快再被争夺回去。因为库德尔自由武装突袭摩苏尔时他们需要更好的装备“去进行一场对IS的决定性战斗并打败他们”，他说道。“目前为止我们通过流血牺牲只在库尔德斯坦的一些地方击败过他们。我们有1011位自由斗士牺牲，有约5000名战士受伤。”
The Kurds want heavy weapons including Humvees, tanks to surround but not to enter Mosul, snipers’ rifles, because Isis has many highly accurate snipers, as well as equipment to deal with improvised explosive devices and booby traps, both of which Isis uses profusely.
库尔德人想要一些重武器，包括运输车、去包围摩苏尔而不是进入摩苏尔的坦克、狙击手步枪，因为IS有许多精准的狙击手，还有一些针对IS经常使用的简易爆炸装置和诡雷的设备。
Above all, Kurdish participation in an offensive would require a military partner in the shape of an effective Iraqi army and local Sunni allies. Without the latter, a battle for Mosul conducted by Shia and Kurds alone would provoke Sunni Arab resistance. Mr Hussein is dubious about the effectiveness of the Iraqi army, which disintegrated last June when, though nominally it had 350,000 soldiers, it was defeated by a few thousand Isis fighters.
首先，库尔德人实施进攻需要一个有效的类似于伊拉克军队和当地逊尼派组织的军事伙伴。没有后者，单单是什叶派和库尔德人对摩苏尔进攻的话会激起逊尼派阿拉伯人的抵抗。侯赛因先生对伊拉克军队的效率比较怀疑，它在去年六月时衰退了，当它尽管名义上有三十五万名士兵时，被IS几千人的武装力量打败。
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Pro-Islamic State demonstrators in front of the provincial government headquarters in Mosul (EPA)
支持伊斯兰国的示威者，在摩苏尔的省政府总部门前（EPA）
“The Iraqi army has two divisions to protect Baghdad, but is it possible for the Iraqi government to release them?” asks Mr Hussein. “And how will they get to Mosul? If they have to come through Tikrit and Baiji, they will have to fight hard along the way even before they get to Mosul.”
“伊拉克军队有两个保护巴格达的分支，但是对于伊拉克政府来说，有可能把他们调用出来么？”侯赛因先生问道。“并且他们怎么到摩苏尔去呢？如果他么必须经过提克里特和拜伊吉的话，那他们在到达摩苏尔前就要经过路程中的艰难战斗。”
Of course, an anti-Isis offensive has advantages not available last year, such as US air strikes, but these might be difficult to use in a city. The US air force carried out at least 600 air strikes on the Isis-held part of the small Syrian Kurdish city of Kobani before Isis finally retreated after a siege of 134 days. In the most optimistic scenarios Isis splits or there is a popular uprising against it, but so far there is no sign of this and Isis has proved that it exacts merciless vengeance against any individual or community opposed to it.
当然，对IS的进攻有着去年没有的优势，像美空军的空袭，但是这些可能很难用在市区。美国空军在IS经过一百三十四天对叙利亚库尔德人的科巴尼小城市围攻最终撤离前至少往IS所占地区实施了600次空袭。目前最乐观的情况是IS自己分裂或是有大规模的起义来反抗它的统治，但是目前来看没有相关的任何迹象，并且IS也用实际行动证明了它将对反对它的任何组织或个人实行最冷酷无情的报复。
Mr Hussein makes another important point: difficult and dangerous though it may be for the Kurds and the Baghdad government to recapture Mosul, they cannot afford to leave it alone. It was here that Isis won its first great victory and Abu Baqr al-Baghdadi declared the caliphate on 29 June last year.
侯赛因先生抛出了另一个重要观点：即使库尔德人和巴格达政府去夺回摩苏尔是非常困难以及危险的，但是他们不能把它放在一边。这是IS赢得首场大胜利的地方，也是阿布巴克尔巴格达迪在去年六月二十九日宣称这属于伊斯兰王权领土的地方。（译者注：阿布巴克尔巴格达迪是IS的现任首领）
“Mosul is important politically and militarily,” he says. “Without defeating Isis in Mosul, it will be very difficult to talk about the defeat of Isis in the rest of Iraq.”
“摩苏尔在政治和军事上都很重要，”他说道。“没有在摩苏尔击败IS，很难在伊拉克剩下的地区谈打败IS。”
At the moment, Peshmerga forces are only eight miles from Mosul. But Isis fighters are likewise not much further from the Kurdish-held oil city of Kirkuk, which Isis assaulted last month. Given the size of Iraq and the small size of the armies deployed, each side can inflict tactical surprises on the other by punching through scantily held frontlines.
当下，自由斗士的军事力量离摩苏尔只有八英里。但是IS的武装力量同样地离库尔德人占据的石油城市基尔库克也不远，后者上个月刚刚被IS袭击过。考虑到伊拉克地区的尺寸和军事部署的小规模，两边都能通过攻击暴露出来的前线创造战术上的惊喜。
There are two further developments to the advantage of Islamic State. Even in the face of the common threat, the leaders in Baghdad and Erbil remain deeply divided. When Mosul fell last year, the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki claimed that the Iraqi army had been stabbed in the back by a conspiracy between Kurds and Isis. The two sides remain deeply suspicious of each other and, at the start of last week, a delegation led by the Kurdish Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani failed to reach an agreement in Baghdad on how much of Iraq’s oil revenues should go to the Kurds in exchange for a previously agreed quantity of oil from Kurdish-held northern oilfields.
然后对于伊斯兰国进一步来说有两个有利的发展。即使是直面常见的威胁，在巴格达的领导者和在埃尔比勒的领导者仍旧保持着深深的分裂。当去年摩苏尔沦陷时，努里·马利基首相的政府宣称伊拉克的军队被库尔德人和IS之间的阴谋从背后捅了一刀。两边的人仍对另一边保留着深深的怀疑，并且就在上周开始，库尔德地区总理巴尔尼授意的一项与巴格达地区的协议宣告失败，协议以库尔德掌管的北部油田里之前答应的原油数量换取多少伊拉克的石油收入应划入库尔德地区为内容。
“Unbelievably, the divisions now are as great as under Maliki,” says Dr Othman. Islamic State has made many enemies, but it may be saved by their inability to unite.
“无法相信地，这个分裂闹得像马利基所言那样大，”奥斯曼博士说。伊斯兰国树立了许多敌人，但由于这些敌人无法联合，保住了伊斯兰国的小命。
Patrick Cockburn is the author of The Rise of Islamic State: Isis and the New Sunni Revolution (Verso)
（注）：帕特里克·克伯恩是“伊斯兰国的崛起：IS和新逊尼派的革命”的作者
绥靖主义泛滥，祸水互引
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tomcat650093 发表于 2015-2-25 14:39
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