超级军网恶劣天气遏制畜群扩张，让美国牧场主很焦虑
来源：百度文库 编辑：超级军网 时间：2024/05/06 09:42:50
原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com
论坛地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-334882-1-1.html
Weather worries U.S. cattle producers as they slowly expand herds
恶劣天气遏制畜群扩张，让美国牧场主很焦虑
ZUEHL, Texas (Reuters) - Texas rancher Jim Rackley would like to add more cattle to his herd of about 50 to take advantage of sizzling beef prices and growing demand from health-conscious consumers for his grass-fed beef. But the prospect of cloudless skies keeps him cautious.
ZUEHL,德克萨斯（路透社）——德克萨斯牧民吉姆赫拉克利想给他的牧场增加50头牛，因为牛肉价格正在上涨，同时消费者更希望购买由牧草喂出的绿色牛肉。但是，持续的晴天让他不敢尝试。
Rackley's worries over a lack of rain are typical of many U.S. beef cattle producers trying to restock after a years long drought, which peaked in 2011, decimated ranches built up over generations and shrank the nation's herd to its smallest in more than 60 years.
牧场主们试图增加载畜量，但长年的干旱（尤其在2011年）让很多牧场主像赫拉克利一样焦虑不安，牧场建设滞后，载畜量降至60年来的最低点。
Now a combination of record-high cattle prices and cheap grain has prompted ranchers to start adding back cattle earlier than expected. But the rebuilding will still be long and slow.
现在，创纪录的牛肉价格和便宜的粮食价格刺激牧场主们重新增加牛群数量。但是，重建过程漫长与迟缓。
Producers like Rackley worry the drought will return, shriveling scant pasture and sending grain costs soaring again. At the same time, there is no guarantee Americans will continue to consume beef at the current rate, given high prices.
牧场主们，比如赫拉克利，害怕干旱会重来，干枯且稀少的牧草令草料价格飞涨。同时，他也不敢保证美国人会继续食用牛肉，因为牛肉太贵了。
"Every time we think we're coming out of the drought, we get hit again,' said Rackley, a former high school football coach in Texas, where the sport and beef are state passions.
“每当我幻想即将走出干旱时，我被迎头一棒。”赫拉克利说，前德克萨斯某高校足球队教练，德州人热切的喜爱牛肉和足球。
Rackley's 49 chocolate brown and black cattle, including 25 cows used for breeding, have yellow numbered tags clipped to their ears for identification. He surveys a landscape of flat pasture and points out which animal (#55) will be the next to go to slaughter at the end of the month.
赫拉克利有49头棕色和黑色的牛，包括25头母牛，每头牛的耳朵上都夹着数字标签来确定身份。他环视平整的草场，指着一头编号为55的牛，这头牛将在月末被屠宰。
Feeder cattle futures trading about 20 percent higher than a year ago at 199.45 cents a pound, and corn futures trading 13 percent lower near $3.85 a bushel, are providing obvious incentives for ranchers to rebuild their herds.
架子牛期货价格比一年前高20%，达199.45美分/磅，而玉米期货价格降低了13%，接近3.85美元/蒲式耳，这是牧场主增加载畜量的理由。
Still, the decision to expand is proving complicated for many, with the price for buying new cattle at nearly $3,000 a head and pasture still patchy in places. The topic was a focus at a cattle conference in San Antonio, Texas, last week.
然而，扩产对很多人来说不是件容易的事，因为买一头新牛需要3000美元，牧草依旧缺乏。这个问题成为上周在德克萨斯州圣安东尼奥市举行的牛肉会议的焦点。
The nation's herd edged up one percent to 89.8 million head by Jan. 1, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), stunning analysts who had predicted a decline and prompting some to bring forward to late 2016 from 2017 their expectations of when beef supplies will increase.
根据美国农业部的数据，美国的牲畜数量在一月份缓慢上升一个百分点，达到8980万头。分析师预测数量会下降，在2016年底实现反转（之前预测为2017年）
The cattle population was larger than in 2013 and 2014, but still the third smallest since 1952, said University of Missouri livestock economist Ron Plain.
密苏里大学畜牧业经济学家普莱恩说，今年肉牛数量比2013年和2014年要多，但仍然是1952年来第三少的一年，
"Herd rebuilding is on the way, but putting a calf into the herd today will take at least a year and a half before you get anything out of it," said Jack Salzsieder, owner of Iowa-based brokerage firm JRS Consulting, referring to the time required to bring a calf to maturity to be processed.
爱荷华州经纪人公司JRS Consulting的老板Jack Salzsieder指出肉牛成熟不是瞬间的事，“重建牧场是一个办法，但从抓小牛犊到成长为肉牛，需要至少一年半的时间。”
DROUGHT DILEMMA
In Oklahoma, Joe Smith wants to rebuild his cattle herd after selling three-fourths of his animals in 2011.
在俄克拉荷马州，乔·史密斯2011年卖掉了四分之三的牲口，但现在，他想重建牧场。
Smith said he was being "very cautious" in his attempt to expand production, holding back 10 cows of his 100-head herd to breed, instead of sending them to slaughter. His ranch in Duncan, Oklahoma, still needs more rain to grow grazing grass.
史密斯说，他在扩大生产上非常谨慎，在他拥有的100头牛的牧场中，让10头母牛停止生育，并把它们全部屠宰掉。他的牧场位于俄克拉荷马州邓肯市，现在急需更多的雨水让牧草生长。
About 33 percent of the southern United States, including the big cattle states of Texas and Oklahoma, was in some form of drought as of Feb. 5, down from about 37 percent a year earlier, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
根据美国干旱监测的数据，大约33%的美国南部州，包括大型牛肉州德克萨斯和俄克拉荷马州，遭遇了某种程度的干旱，从2月5日开始，比去年同期的37%有所下降。
However, 8.7 percent of Texas was considered to be in extreme or exceptional drought, the two worst categories, up three percentage points from a year ago.
然而，德克萨斯州遭遇了罕见极端干旱的土地达到8.7%，比去年增加了3个百分点。
It may be 2018 or 2019 before increased supplies start to significantly push down beef prices, said Derrell Peel, an agricultural economist at Oklahoma State University, adding there are "a lot of places that are vulnerable to go backward in a hurry" if conditions turn dry.
或许到2018年或2019年，供应量增长才会显著的降低牛肉价格，Derrell Peel说，一名俄克拉荷马州立大学农业经济学家说，如果干旱继续，很多地方会快速退化。
In the meantime, beef prices are likely to stay high, squeezing consumers in grocery stores and restaurants and prompting some Americans to eat less beef.
同时，牛肉价格可能会悬浮在高位，让消费者难以承受，从而促使一些美国人减少食用牛肉。
Per capita consumption fell to an estimated 54.3 lbs (24.6 kg) in 2014 from 56.3 lbs (25.5 kg) a year earlier and is forecast to slip to 52.7 lbs (23.9 kg) in 2015, according to the USDA, even though overall consumption still outstrips domestic production.
根据美国农业部的数据，肉类消费从2013年的每人每年56.3磅（25.5公斤）下降到2014年的54.3磅（24.6公斤），预计在2015年下滑到52.7磅（23.9公斤），即便如此，消费量依然高于国内生产量。
Beef processors like Cargill Inc [CARG.UL] and National Beef Packing Co [NBEEF.UL] are desperate to see production rise. They have shuttered beef-processing plants in recent years and may still need to close more facilities, said Pete Anderson, director of research for cattle nutrition company Midwest PMS.
美国中西部牛肉营养研究员皮特安德森说，牛肉生产商，比如嘉吉公司和国家牛肉，对增产完全没有信心，他们近年关闭牛肉生产车间，而且可能要关闭更多。
One of the few processors investing in expansion is JBS USA LLC [JBS.UL], which is sinking $75 million into a Utah beef plant. But the company is looking to include dairy cows to raise its output there.
仅有几家经销商扩大了投资，包括JBS USA LLC，它在犹他州投入了7500万美元。但是，这家公司正在增加奶牛投入以扩大销售。
Meanwhile, in drought-hit California, rancher Kevin Kester plans to reduce his 300-head herd further after cutting it from as many as 500 head he had back in 2010.
同时，被干旱袭击的加利福尼亚，牧场主Kevin Kester已经在2010年把他的牧场载畜量从500头减少到300头，现在，会继续减少。
"Everybody wants to expand," he said. "We're looking for Mother Nature to cooperate."
“每个人都希望增产，”但他说，“我会让大自然来决定一切。”原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com
论坛地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-334882-1-1.html
Weather worries U.S. cattle producers as they slowly expand herds
恶劣天气遏制畜群扩张，让美国牧场主很焦虑
ZUEHL, Texas (Reuters) - Texas rancher Jim Rackley would like to add more cattle to his herd of about 50 to take advantage of sizzling beef prices and growing demand from health-conscious consumers for his grass-fed beef. But the prospect of cloudless skies keeps him cautious.
ZUEHL,德克萨斯（路透社）——德克萨斯牧民吉姆赫拉克利想给他的牧场增加50头牛，因为牛肉价格正在上涨，同时消费者更希望购买由牧草喂出的绿色牛肉。但是，持续的晴天让他不敢尝试。
Rackley's worries over a lack of rain are typical of many U.S. beef cattle producers trying to restock after a years long drought, which peaked in 2011, decimated ranches built up over generations and shrank the nation's herd to its smallest in more than 60 years.
牧场主们试图增加载畜量，但长年的干旱（尤其在2011年）让很多牧场主像赫拉克利一样焦虑不安，牧场建设滞后，载畜量降至60年来的最低点。
Now a combination of record-high cattle prices and cheap grain has prompted ranchers to start adding back cattle earlier than expected. But the rebuilding will still be long and slow.
现在，创纪录的牛肉价格和便宜的粮食价格刺激牧场主们重新增加牛群数量。但是，重建过程漫长与迟缓。
Producers like Rackley worry the drought will return, shriveling scant pasture and sending grain costs soaring again. At the same time, there is no guarantee Americans will continue to consume beef at the current rate, given high prices.
牧场主们，比如赫拉克利，害怕干旱会重来，干枯且稀少的牧草令草料价格飞涨。同时，他也不敢保证美国人会继续食用牛肉，因为牛肉太贵了。
"Every time we think we're coming out of the drought, we get hit again,' said Rackley, a former high school football coach in Texas, where the sport and beef are state passions.
“每当我幻想即将走出干旱时，我被迎头一棒。”赫拉克利说，前德克萨斯某高校足球队教练，德州人热切的喜爱牛肉和足球。
Rackley's 49 chocolate brown and black cattle, including 25 cows used for breeding, have yellow numbered tags clipped to their ears for identification. He surveys a landscape of flat pasture and points out which animal (#55) will be the next to go to slaughter at the end of the month.
赫拉克利有49头棕色和黑色的牛，包括25头母牛，每头牛的耳朵上都夹着数字标签来确定身份。他环视平整的草场，指着一头编号为55的牛，这头牛将在月末被屠宰。
Feeder cattle futures trading about 20 percent higher than a year ago at 199.45 cents a pound, and corn futures trading 13 percent lower near $3.85 a bushel, are providing obvious incentives for ranchers to rebuild their herds.
架子牛期货价格比一年前高20%，达199.45美分/磅，而玉米期货价格降低了13%，接近3.85美元/蒲式耳，这是牧场主增加载畜量的理由。
Still, the decision to expand is proving complicated for many, with the price for buying new cattle at nearly $3,000 a head and pasture still patchy in places. The topic was a focus at a cattle conference in San Antonio, Texas, last week.
然而，扩产对很多人来说不是件容易的事，因为买一头新牛需要3000美元，牧草依旧缺乏。这个问题成为上周在德克萨斯州圣安东尼奥市举行的牛肉会议的焦点。
The nation's herd edged up one percent to 89.8 million head by Jan. 1, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), stunning analysts who had predicted a decline and prompting some to bring forward to late 2016 from 2017 their expectations of when beef supplies will increase.
根据美国农业部的数据，美国的牲畜数量在一月份缓慢上升一个百分点，达到8980万头。分析师预测数量会下降，在2016年底实现反转（之前预测为2017年）
The cattle population was larger than in 2013 and 2014, but still the third smallest since 1952, said University of Missouri livestock economist Ron Plain.
密苏里大学畜牧业经济学家普莱恩说，今年肉牛数量比2013年和2014年要多，但仍然是1952年来第三少的一年，
"Herd rebuilding is on the way, but putting a calf into the herd today will take at least a year and a half before you get anything out of it," said Jack Salzsieder, owner of Iowa-based brokerage firm JRS Consulting, referring to the time required to bring a calf to maturity to be processed.
爱荷华州经纪人公司JRS Consulting的老板Jack Salzsieder指出肉牛成熟不是瞬间的事，“重建牧场是一个办法，但从抓小牛犊到成长为肉牛，需要至少一年半的时间。”
DROUGHT DILEMMA
In Oklahoma, Joe Smith wants to rebuild his cattle herd after selling three-fourths of his animals in 2011.
在俄克拉荷马州，乔·史密斯2011年卖掉了四分之三的牲口，但现在，他想重建牧场。
Smith said he was being "very cautious" in his attempt to expand production, holding back 10 cows of his 100-head herd to breed, instead of sending them to slaughter. His ranch in Duncan, Oklahoma, still needs more rain to grow grazing grass.
史密斯说，他在扩大生产上非常谨慎，在他拥有的100头牛的牧场中，让10头母牛停止生育，并把它们全部屠宰掉。他的牧场位于俄克拉荷马州邓肯市，现在急需更多的雨水让牧草生长。
About 33 percent of the southern United States, including the big cattle states of Texas and Oklahoma, was in some form of drought as of Feb. 5, down from about 37 percent a year earlier, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
根据美国干旱监测的数据，大约33%的美国南部州，包括大型牛肉州德克萨斯和俄克拉荷马州，遭遇了某种程度的干旱，从2月5日开始，比去年同期的37%有所下降。
However, 8.7 percent of Texas was considered to be in extreme or exceptional drought, the two worst categories, up three percentage points from a year ago.
然而，德克萨斯州遭遇了罕见极端干旱的土地达到8.7%，比去年增加了3个百分点。
It may be 2018 or 2019 before increased supplies start to significantly push down beef prices, said Derrell Peel, an agricultural economist at Oklahoma State University, adding there are "a lot of places that are vulnerable to go backward in a hurry" if conditions turn dry.
或许到2018年或2019年，供应量增长才会显著的降低牛肉价格，Derrell Peel说，一名俄克拉荷马州立大学农业经济学家说，如果干旱继续，很多地方会快速退化。
In the meantime, beef prices are likely to stay high, squeezing consumers in grocery stores and restaurants and prompting some Americans to eat less beef.
同时，牛肉价格可能会悬浮在高位，让消费者难以承受，从而促使一些美国人减少食用牛肉。
Per capita consumption fell to an estimated 54.3 lbs (24.6 kg) in 2014 from 56.3 lbs (25.5 kg) a year earlier and is forecast to slip to 52.7 lbs (23.9 kg) in 2015, according to the USDA, even though overall consumption still outstrips domestic production.
根据美国农业部的数据，肉类消费从2013年的每人每年56.3磅（25.5公斤）下降到2014年的54.3磅（24.6公斤），预计在2015年下滑到52.7磅（23.9公斤），即便如此，消费量依然高于国内生产量。
Beef processors like Cargill Inc [CARG.UL] and National Beef Packing Co [NBEEF.UL] are desperate to see production rise. They have shuttered beef-processing plants in recent years and may still need to close more facilities, said Pete Anderson, director of research for cattle nutrition company Midwest PMS.
美国中西部牛肉营养研究员皮特安德森说，牛肉生产商，比如嘉吉公司和国家牛肉，对增产完全没有信心，他们近年关闭牛肉生产车间，而且可能要关闭更多。
One of the few processors investing in expansion is JBS USA LLC [JBS.UL], which is sinking $75 million into a Utah beef plant. But the company is looking to include dairy cows to raise its output there.
仅有几家经销商扩大了投资，包括JBS USA LLC，它在犹他州投入了7500万美元。但是，这家公司正在增加奶牛投入以扩大销售。
Meanwhile, in drought-hit California, rancher Kevin Kester plans to reduce his 300-head herd further after cutting it from as many as 500 head he had back in 2010.
同时，被干旱袭击的加利福尼亚，牧场主Kevin Kester已经在2010年把他的牧场载畜量从500头减少到300头，现在，会继续减少。
"Everybody wants to expand," he said. "We're looking for Mother Nature to cooperate."
“每个人都希望增产，”但他说，“我会让大自然来决定一切。”
论坛地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-334882-1-1.html
Weather worries U.S. cattle producers as they slowly expand herds
恶劣天气遏制畜群扩张，让美国牧场主很焦虑
ZUEHL, Texas (Reuters) - Texas rancher Jim Rackley would like to add more cattle to his herd of about 50 to take advantage of sizzling beef prices and growing demand from health-conscious consumers for his grass-fed beef. But the prospect of cloudless skies keeps him cautious.
ZUEHL,德克萨斯（路透社）——德克萨斯牧民吉姆赫拉克利想给他的牧场增加50头牛，因为牛肉价格正在上涨，同时消费者更希望购买由牧草喂出的绿色牛肉。但是，持续的晴天让他不敢尝试。
Rackley's worries over a lack of rain are typical of many U.S. beef cattle producers trying to restock after a years long drought, which peaked in 2011, decimated ranches built up over generations and shrank the nation's herd to its smallest in more than 60 years.
牧场主们试图增加载畜量，但长年的干旱（尤其在2011年）让很多牧场主像赫拉克利一样焦虑不安，牧场建设滞后，载畜量降至60年来的最低点。
Now a combination of record-high cattle prices and cheap grain has prompted ranchers to start adding back cattle earlier than expected. But the rebuilding will still be long and slow.
现在，创纪录的牛肉价格和便宜的粮食价格刺激牧场主们重新增加牛群数量。但是，重建过程漫长与迟缓。
Producers like Rackley worry the drought will return, shriveling scant pasture and sending grain costs soaring again. At the same time, there is no guarantee Americans will continue to consume beef at the current rate, given high prices.
牧场主们，比如赫拉克利，害怕干旱会重来，干枯且稀少的牧草令草料价格飞涨。同时，他也不敢保证美国人会继续食用牛肉，因为牛肉太贵了。
"Every time we think we're coming out of the drought, we get hit again,' said Rackley, a former high school football coach in Texas, where the sport and beef are state passions.
“每当我幻想即将走出干旱时，我被迎头一棒。”赫拉克利说，前德克萨斯某高校足球队教练，德州人热切的喜爱牛肉和足球。
Rackley's 49 chocolate brown and black cattle, including 25 cows used for breeding, have yellow numbered tags clipped to their ears for identification. He surveys a landscape of flat pasture and points out which animal (#55) will be the next to go to slaughter at the end of the month.
赫拉克利有49头棕色和黑色的牛，包括25头母牛，每头牛的耳朵上都夹着数字标签来确定身份。他环视平整的草场，指着一头编号为55的牛，这头牛将在月末被屠宰。
Feeder cattle futures trading about 20 percent higher than a year ago at 199.45 cents a pound, and corn futures trading 13 percent lower near $3.85 a bushel, are providing obvious incentives for ranchers to rebuild their herds.
架子牛期货价格比一年前高20%，达199.45美分/磅，而玉米期货价格降低了13%，接近3.85美元/蒲式耳，这是牧场主增加载畜量的理由。
Still, the decision to expand is proving complicated for many, with the price for buying new cattle at nearly $3,000 a head and pasture still patchy in places. The topic was a focus at a cattle conference in San Antonio, Texas, last week.
然而，扩产对很多人来说不是件容易的事，因为买一头新牛需要3000美元，牧草依旧缺乏。这个问题成为上周在德克萨斯州圣安东尼奥市举行的牛肉会议的焦点。
The nation's herd edged up one percent to 89.8 million head by Jan. 1, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), stunning analysts who had predicted a decline and prompting some to bring forward to late 2016 from 2017 their expectations of when beef supplies will increase.
根据美国农业部的数据，美国的牲畜数量在一月份缓慢上升一个百分点，达到8980万头。分析师预测数量会下降，在2016年底实现反转（之前预测为2017年）
The cattle population was larger than in 2013 and 2014, but still the third smallest since 1952, said University of Missouri livestock economist Ron Plain.
密苏里大学畜牧业经济学家普莱恩说，今年肉牛数量比2013年和2014年要多，但仍然是1952年来第三少的一年，
"Herd rebuilding is on the way, but putting a calf into the herd today will take at least a year and a half before you get anything out of it," said Jack Salzsieder, owner of Iowa-based brokerage firm JRS Consulting, referring to the time required to bring a calf to maturity to be processed.
爱荷华州经纪人公司JRS Consulting的老板Jack Salzsieder指出肉牛成熟不是瞬间的事，“重建牧场是一个办法，但从抓小牛犊到成长为肉牛，需要至少一年半的时间。”
DROUGHT DILEMMA
In Oklahoma, Joe Smith wants to rebuild his cattle herd after selling three-fourths of his animals in 2011.
在俄克拉荷马州，乔·史密斯2011年卖掉了四分之三的牲口，但现在，他想重建牧场。
Smith said he was being "very cautious" in his attempt to expand production, holding back 10 cows of his 100-head herd to breed, instead of sending them to slaughter. His ranch in Duncan, Oklahoma, still needs more rain to grow grazing grass.
史密斯说，他在扩大生产上非常谨慎，在他拥有的100头牛的牧场中，让10头母牛停止生育，并把它们全部屠宰掉。他的牧场位于俄克拉荷马州邓肯市，现在急需更多的雨水让牧草生长。
About 33 percent of the southern United States, including the big cattle states of Texas and Oklahoma, was in some form of drought as of Feb. 5, down from about 37 percent a year earlier, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
根据美国干旱监测的数据，大约33%的美国南部州，包括大型牛肉州德克萨斯和俄克拉荷马州，遭遇了某种程度的干旱，从2月5日开始，比去年同期的37%有所下降。
However, 8.7 percent of Texas was considered to be in extreme or exceptional drought, the two worst categories, up three percentage points from a year ago.
然而，德克萨斯州遭遇了罕见极端干旱的土地达到8.7%，比去年增加了3个百分点。
It may be 2018 or 2019 before increased supplies start to significantly push down beef prices, said Derrell Peel, an agricultural economist at Oklahoma State University, adding there are "a lot of places that are vulnerable to go backward in a hurry" if conditions turn dry.
或许到2018年或2019年，供应量增长才会显著的降低牛肉价格，Derrell Peel说，一名俄克拉荷马州立大学农业经济学家说，如果干旱继续，很多地方会快速退化。
In the meantime, beef prices are likely to stay high, squeezing consumers in grocery stores and restaurants and prompting some Americans to eat less beef.
同时，牛肉价格可能会悬浮在高位，让消费者难以承受，从而促使一些美国人减少食用牛肉。
Per capita consumption fell to an estimated 54.3 lbs (24.6 kg) in 2014 from 56.3 lbs (25.5 kg) a year earlier and is forecast to slip to 52.7 lbs (23.9 kg) in 2015, according to the USDA, even though overall consumption still outstrips domestic production.
根据美国农业部的数据，肉类消费从2013年的每人每年56.3磅（25.5公斤）下降到2014年的54.3磅（24.6公斤），预计在2015年下滑到52.7磅（23.9公斤），即便如此，消费量依然高于国内生产量。
Beef processors like Cargill Inc [CARG.UL] and National Beef Packing Co [NBEEF.UL] are desperate to see production rise. They have shuttered beef-processing plants in recent years and may still need to close more facilities, said Pete Anderson, director of research for cattle nutrition company Midwest PMS.
美国中西部牛肉营养研究员皮特安德森说，牛肉生产商，比如嘉吉公司和国家牛肉，对增产完全没有信心，他们近年关闭牛肉生产车间，而且可能要关闭更多。
One of the few processors investing in expansion is JBS USA LLC [JBS.UL], which is sinking $75 million into a Utah beef plant. But the company is looking to include dairy cows to raise its output there.
仅有几家经销商扩大了投资，包括JBS USA LLC，它在犹他州投入了7500万美元。但是，这家公司正在增加奶牛投入以扩大销售。
Meanwhile, in drought-hit California, rancher Kevin Kester plans to reduce his 300-head herd further after cutting it from as many as 500 head he had back in 2010.
同时，被干旱袭击的加利福尼亚，牧场主Kevin Kester已经在2010年把他的牧场载畜量从500头减少到300头，现在，会继续减少。
"Everybody wants to expand," he said. "We're looking for Mother Nature to cooperate."
“每个人都希望增产，”但他说，“我会让大自然来决定一切。”原创翻译：龙腾网 http://www.ltaaa.com
论坛地址：http://www.ltaaa.com/bbs/thread-334882-1-1.html
Weather worries U.S. cattle producers as they slowly expand herds
恶劣天气遏制畜群扩张，让美国牧场主很焦虑
ZUEHL, Texas (Reuters) - Texas rancher Jim Rackley would like to add more cattle to his herd of about 50 to take advantage of sizzling beef prices and growing demand from health-conscious consumers for his grass-fed beef. But the prospect of cloudless skies keeps him cautious.
ZUEHL,德克萨斯（路透社）——德克萨斯牧民吉姆赫拉克利想给他的牧场增加50头牛，因为牛肉价格正在上涨，同时消费者更希望购买由牧草喂出的绿色牛肉。但是，持续的晴天让他不敢尝试。
Rackley's worries over a lack of rain are typical of many U.S. beef cattle producers trying to restock after a years long drought, which peaked in 2011, decimated ranches built up over generations and shrank the nation's herd to its smallest in more than 60 years.
牧场主们试图增加载畜量，但长年的干旱（尤其在2011年）让很多牧场主像赫拉克利一样焦虑不安，牧场建设滞后，载畜量降至60年来的最低点。
Now a combination of record-high cattle prices and cheap grain has prompted ranchers to start adding back cattle earlier than expected. But the rebuilding will still be long and slow.
现在，创纪录的牛肉价格和便宜的粮食价格刺激牧场主们重新增加牛群数量。但是，重建过程漫长与迟缓。
Producers like Rackley worry the drought will return, shriveling scant pasture and sending grain costs soaring again. At the same time, there is no guarantee Americans will continue to consume beef at the current rate, given high prices.
牧场主们，比如赫拉克利，害怕干旱会重来，干枯且稀少的牧草令草料价格飞涨。同时，他也不敢保证美国人会继续食用牛肉，因为牛肉太贵了。
"Every time we think we're coming out of the drought, we get hit again,' said Rackley, a former high school football coach in Texas, where the sport and beef are state passions.
“每当我幻想即将走出干旱时，我被迎头一棒。”赫拉克利说，前德克萨斯某高校足球队教练，德州人热切的喜爱牛肉和足球。
Rackley's 49 chocolate brown and black cattle, including 25 cows used for breeding, have yellow numbered tags clipped to their ears for identification. He surveys a landscape of flat pasture and points out which animal (#55) will be the next to go to slaughter at the end of the month.
赫拉克利有49头棕色和黑色的牛，包括25头母牛，每头牛的耳朵上都夹着数字标签来确定身份。他环视平整的草场，指着一头编号为55的牛，这头牛将在月末被屠宰。
Feeder cattle futures trading about 20 percent higher than a year ago at 199.45 cents a pound, and corn futures trading 13 percent lower near $3.85 a bushel, are providing obvious incentives for ranchers to rebuild their herds.
架子牛期货价格比一年前高20%，达199.45美分/磅，而玉米期货价格降低了13%，接近3.85美元/蒲式耳，这是牧场主增加载畜量的理由。
Still, the decision to expand is proving complicated for many, with the price for buying new cattle at nearly $3,000 a head and pasture still patchy in places. The topic was a focus at a cattle conference in San Antonio, Texas, last week.
然而，扩产对很多人来说不是件容易的事，因为买一头新牛需要3000美元，牧草依旧缺乏。这个问题成为上周在德克萨斯州圣安东尼奥市举行的牛肉会议的焦点。
The nation's herd edged up one percent to 89.8 million head by Jan. 1, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), stunning analysts who had predicted a decline and prompting some to bring forward to late 2016 from 2017 their expectations of when beef supplies will increase.
根据美国农业部的数据，美国的牲畜数量在一月份缓慢上升一个百分点，达到8980万头。分析师预测数量会下降，在2016年底实现反转（之前预测为2017年）
The cattle population was larger than in 2013 and 2014, but still the third smallest since 1952, said University of Missouri livestock economist Ron Plain.
密苏里大学畜牧业经济学家普莱恩说，今年肉牛数量比2013年和2014年要多，但仍然是1952年来第三少的一年，
"Herd rebuilding is on the way, but putting a calf into the herd today will take at least a year and a half before you get anything out of it," said Jack Salzsieder, owner of Iowa-based brokerage firm JRS Consulting, referring to the time required to bring a calf to maturity to be processed.
爱荷华州经纪人公司JRS Consulting的老板Jack Salzsieder指出肉牛成熟不是瞬间的事，“重建牧场是一个办法，但从抓小牛犊到成长为肉牛，需要至少一年半的时间。”
DROUGHT DILEMMA
In Oklahoma, Joe Smith wants to rebuild his cattle herd after selling three-fourths of his animals in 2011.
在俄克拉荷马州，乔·史密斯2011年卖掉了四分之三的牲口，但现在，他想重建牧场。
Smith said he was being "very cautious" in his attempt to expand production, holding back 10 cows of his 100-head herd to breed, instead of sending them to slaughter. His ranch in Duncan, Oklahoma, still needs more rain to grow grazing grass.
史密斯说，他在扩大生产上非常谨慎，在他拥有的100头牛的牧场中，让10头母牛停止生育，并把它们全部屠宰掉。他的牧场位于俄克拉荷马州邓肯市，现在急需更多的雨水让牧草生长。
About 33 percent of the southern United States, including the big cattle states of Texas and Oklahoma, was in some form of drought as of Feb. 5, down from about 37 percent a year earlier, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
根据美国干旱监测的数据，大约33%的美国南部州，包括大型牛肉州德克萨斯和俄克拉荷马州，遭遇了某种程度的干旱，从2月5日开始，比去年同期的37%有所下降。
However, 8.7 percent of Texas was considered to be in extreme or exceptional drought, the two worst categories, up three percentage points from a year ago.
然而，德克萨斯州遭遇了罕见极端干旱的土地达到8.7%，比去年增加了3个百分点。
It may be 2018 or 2019 before increased supplies start to significantly push down beef prices, said Derrell Peel, an agricultural economist at Oklahoma State University, adding there are "a lot of places that are vulnerable to go backward in a hurry" if conditions turn dry.
或许到2018年或2019年，供应量增长才会显著的降低牛肉价格，Derrell Peel说，一名俄克拉荷马州立大学农业经济学家说，如果干旱继续，很多地方会快速退化。
In the meantime, beef prices are likely to stay high, squeezing consumers in grocery stores and restaurants and prompting some Americans to eat less beef.
同时，牛肉价格可能会悬浮在高位，让消费者难以承受，从而促使一些美国人减少食用牛肉。
Per capita consumption fell to an estimated 54.3 lbs (24.6 kg) in 2014 from 56.3 lbs (25.5 kg) a year earlier and is forecast to slip to 52.7 lbs (23.9 kg) in 2015, according to the USDA, even though overall consumption still outstrips domestic production.
根据美国农业部的数据，肉类消费从2013年的每人每年56.3磅（25.5公斤）下降到2014年的54.3磅（24.6公斤），预计在2015年下滑到52.7磅（23.9公斤），即便如此，消费量依然高于国内生产量。
Beef processors like Cargill Inc [CARG.UL] and National Beef Packing Co [NBEEF.UL] are desperate to see production rise. They have shuttered beef-processing plants in recent years and may still need to close more facilities, said Pete Anderson, director of research for cattle nutrition company Midwest PMS.
美国中西部牛肉营养研究员皮特安德森说，牛肉生产商，比如嘉吉公司和国家牛肉，对增产完全没有信心，他们近年关闭牛肉生产车间，而且可能要关闭更多。
One of the few processors investing in expansion is JBS USA LLC [JBS.UL], which is sinking $75 million into a Utah beef plant. But the company is looking to include dairy cows to raise its output there.
仅有几家经销商扩大了投资，包括JBS USA LLC，它在犹他州投入了7500万美元。但是，这家公司正在增加奶牛投入以扩大销售。
Meanwhile, in drought-hit California, rancher Kevin Kester plans to reduce his 300-head herd further after cutting it from as many as 500 head he had back in 2010.
同时，被干旱袭击的加利福尼亚，牧场主Kevin Kester已经在2010年把他的牧场载畜量从500头减少到300头，现在，会继续减少。
"Everybody wants to expand," he said. "We're looking for Mother Nature to cooperate."
“每个人都希望增产，”但他说，“我会让大自然来决定一切。”